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2. Finding a Way Out of Festering Conflict in India’s Manipur
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Manipur, a state in north-eastern India, has been beset with intercommunal strife since May 2023. The central government has now taken a bold step to quell the violence. It should keep acting urgently to avert a protracted crisis.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Violence, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Manipur
3. Locked in Transition: Politics and Violence in Haiti
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Criminal gangs have tightened their grip on much of Port-au-Prince, with the multinational security mission making little headway and transitional authorities mired in internal disputes. The UN Security Council should quickly decide how to respond to Haiti’s request for further assistance in restoring public safety.
- Topic:
- Security, UN Security Council, Organized Crime, Gangs, and Public Safety
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti
4. Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has upended European security and created a reality in which EU and NATO member states, on one side, and Russia, on the other, view each other as fundamental threats, even as the United States is poised to become a less reliable partner for its allies. Why does it matter? An unstable Europe has economic and security repercussions globally, not least given the nuclear capabilities of Russia, on one hand, and NATO on the other. A deeper understanding of assumptions and threat perceptions on both sides can help key players manage the risks of an increasingly militarised region. What should be done? Diplomacy and deterrence are both required. Kyiv’s backers should seek a settlement to the war that ensures Ukraine’s continued capacity to defend itself. European allies should reduce reliance on the U.S. and – together with Washington – pursue risk mitigation with Russia through limits on weapons deployments and other activities.
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, Multilateralism, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
5. Locked in Transition: Politics and Violence in Haiti
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? A violent siege of Haiti’s capital in early 2024 triggered the creation of a transitional government and the eventual arrival of a Kenyan-led mission to help counter the gang threat. But infighting has paralysed the government, empowered the gangs and made it unlikely that planned elections can come off safely. Why does it matter? Haiti urgently needs a legitimate government able to lead the campaign to curb gang violence and respond to the country’s dire humanitarian emergency. But holding polls prematurely could backfire, allowing gangs to play a deciding role in the vote and entrenching their power. What should be done? Haiti’s transitional authorities should strive to overcome internal wrangling and chart a realistic path to safe elections and constitutional reform. With future U.S. funding in doubt, the UN Security Council must find a way to support either the existing international security force or a peacekeeping mission to weaken the gangs.
- Topic:
- Security, Domestic Politics, Violence, Organized Crime, and Political Transition
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti
6. Finding a Way Out of Festering Conflict in India’s Manipur
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? After close to two years of violence, the Indian government has imposed President’s Rule in Manipur, putting it directly in charge of the troubled north-eastern state’s affairs. New Delhi should seize the opportunity to quell an ethnic conflict that has killed more than 260 people and displaced some 60,000. Why does it matter? Insurgent groups have resurfaced in Manipur over the past year. Failure to resolve the conflict could not just lead to more bloodshed and displacement, but also derail dialogue with the militants. It also risks destabilising other parts of north-eastern India, upsetting the hard-earned peace in neighbouring states. What should be done? Now that it has imposed President’s Rule, the central government should disarm the two sides and re-establish law and order. Finding a sustainable way out of the crisis will be difficult, but New Delhi should initiate negotiations by urgently creating a peace committee acceptable to both communities.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, Insurgency, and Civil Violence
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
7. Protecting Colombia’s Most Vulnerable on the Road to “Total Peace”
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The new Colombian government has resolved to curb violence throughout rural areas where guerrillas and criminals hold sway. Its approach – dialogue and security reform – is admirable but risky. Any deal it strikes should seek to halt all the types of coercion the illicit groups employ.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Violence, Humanitarian Crisis, Vulnerability, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
8. Sovereignty in All but Name: Israel’s Quickening Annexation of the West Bank
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Israel’s far-right government is restructuring the occupation of the West Bank, shifting governing powers from military to civilian agencies in order to gradually institute permanent control. With Israeli law reaching further into the territory and space for Palestinian independence shrinking, much of the territory has, in effect, already been annexed. Why did it happen? Israel has long built and expanded settlements and created “facts on the ground” compatible with annexation while dodging criticism by stopping short of officially declaring sovereignty over the West Bank. But far-right ministers are making unprecedented legal changes, and more prominent Israelis are calling for formal annexation. Why does it matter? Whether or not annexation is formalised, Israel’s changes are erasing remaining distinctions between life in the West Bank settlements and life in Israel. For West Bank Palestinians, to whom Israel denies basic rights, these moves diminish the possibility of either achieving statehood or living normal lives in their homeland. What should be done? Outside actors should seize the opportunity of Gaza ceasefire diplomacy to act, rather than wait for an arguably superfluous formal West Bank annexation. They should use their leverage, including trade and arms sales, to press Israel to stop the entrenchment and spread of annexation and to begin rolling it back.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Annexation, and Israeli Settlers
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank
9. After the Aid Axe: Charting a Path to Self-reliance in Afghanistan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? The U.S. and other major donors are cutting aid to Afghanistan. Sharp reductions in funding leave the Taliban with greater responsibility for the country’s economy, but the regime is struggling to address widespread poverty. The harshest consequences fall upon the most vulnerable, including women and girls. Why does it matter? It may not matter a lot to world powers, because the Taliban are maintaining stability. But the exit of humanitarian organisations – combined with sanctions and other punishments imposed on the Taliban – could further unsettle a region that historically exported terrorism. Economic stagnation risks forcing Afghans to migrate, including toward Europe. What should be done? U.S. aid cuts are not likely to be reversed, so European and regional states should protect their interests by slowing the drawdown and mitigating its effects on Afghan livelihoods. Donors should urgently accelerate talks with Taliban about economic recovery, allowing for exit strategies that preserve basic services.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Foreign Aid, Taliban, Economy, Donors, and Self-Reliance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
10. Paradise Lost? Ecuador’s Battle with Organised Crime
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Once one of South America’s safest countries, Ecuador has in under a decade become its most violent, transforming into a hub of the drug trade to Europe. President Daniel Noboa’s iron-fist approach brought murder rates down at first, but violence has since soared again and crime continues unabated. Why does it matter? Ecuador’s authorities have declared the country to be in the grip of internal armed conflict, deploying soldiers to prisons and crime-hit communities. With no sign of violence falling, the government is set to double down on its tough approach, expanding cooperation with the U.S. military and private security contractors. What should be done? Crackdowns send a strong message to communities and criminals alike, but alone they tend not to overwhelm drug markets. Ecuador should do more to bring state services and licit economic opportunities to crime-hit neighbourhoods while quelling the corruption in ports, prisons and the state that helps generate the crime wave.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Violence, Organized Crime, and Drug Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Ecuador
11. Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Under President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the Philippines is modernising its military capabilities and accelerating efforts to shift focus from internal to external threats. Manila is increasing its defence acquisitions, augmenting its military partnerships and deepening its alliance with Washington – including by expanding U.S. troops’ access to Philippine bases. Why does it matter? Manila’s military modernisation effort is unfolding amid growing tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea; worries about a confrontation between the U.S. and China over Taiwan; shifting geopolitics; and uncertainty surrounding the second Trump administration’s policies. Increasingly dangerous confrontations at sea risk more strategic distrust and even armed conflict. What should be done? In balancing deterrence with diplomacy, Manila should continue military modernisation; work to enhance its alliance with the U.S.; and cultivate other defence partners. As friction with China threatens to increase, Manila should bolster crisis management channels and avoid acts that might be perceived as provocative.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Partnerships, Deterrence, Military, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Philippines, United States of America, and South China Sea
12. Asia in Flux: The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? The intensifying U.S.-China military competition is shaping threat perceptions in Asian capitals, leading many countries to revisit their defence postures and doctrines. Asia experienced its largest-ever military spending increase in the last decade, fuelling regional “militarisation”. The U.S. trade war is impeding diplomacy that might manage these dynamics. Why does it matter? Continued militarisation aggravates threat perceptions among regional powers and creates conflict risks. Concretely, it raises the probability of unintended collisions and accidents in the air and at sea that involve either the U.S. or one of its allies and partners, on one side, and China on the other. What should be done? The U.S. and China should expand defence discussions and bolster channels for communicating intentions and red lines. For deterrence purposes, President Donald Trump should underscore his support for U.S. officials who are working to strengthen regional alliances. The two countries should also continue efforts to end the U.S.-launched trade war.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Competition, Militarization, Military, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
13. Curbing Violence in Latin America’s Drug Trafficking Hotspots
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Violence stemming from the drug trade plagues Latin America, despite decades of law enforcement campaigns involving police and the military. Criminal groups have risen in number, spread to previously unaffected countries and diversified their rackets. Competition among these groups for drug profits drives much of the violence afflicting these societies. Why does it matter? The U.S. is again demanding military-led offensives against criminal groups in the region, yet evidence from past crackdowns suggests that they have served to reconfigure supply routes, spur more complex criminal networks, accelerate efforts to corrupt state officials and generate spikes of violence that harm the most vulnerable. What should be done? Latin America should learn from its successes and failures. Better policing, economic alternatives to crime, restrictions on gun flows and, under specific conditions, negotiations with illegal groups should all play a role. Foreign states should recognise that it is counterproductive to demand tougher controls when they worsen violence.
- Topic:
- War on Drugs, Social Policy, Violence, Police, and Drug Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, Latin America, Honduras, Guatemala, and Ecuador
14. Grievance and Flawed Governance in Iran’s Baluchestan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? As Iran struggles with geopolitical tensions and economic duress, its periphery regions are facing additional challenges. Baluchestan, the southern part of Sistan and Baluchestan province, has experienced recurrent unrest. Many residents feel the government discriminates against them as a religious and ethnic minority. Militancy persists. Environmental concerns compound the difficulties. Why does it matter? The central government’s repeated pledges to reduce poverty in Baluchestan through development and improved governance have been undermined by chronic mismanagement, lack of investment and suppression of dissent. Deepening socio-economic disparities, threats of militancy and growing environmental challenges are likely to bring greater strains. What should be done? Enhancing popular participation in local governance, making economic reforms and improving environmental stewardship are the best ways to address Baluchestan’s entrenched crisis. But meaningful progress will require considerable support from the central government, notwithstanding the other huge challenges it faces at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- Economics, Poverty, Governance, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Baluchestan
15. Supporting Effective Policing by Lebanon’s Embattled Security Agencies
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Since October 2019, Lebanon’s economic crisis has gutted funding for the country’s security forces, including the army and national police. Overstretched, these agencies have resorted to makeshift solutions for keeping the peace, including initiatives that allow communities to help police themselves. Why does it matter? With the country’s security institutions struggling for resources, public safety in Lebanon is maintained by a patchwork of ad hoc solutions and quick fixes that cannot hold forever. As formal institutions continue to weaken, security will fray. Violence could follow, particularly in neglected and impoverished areas. What should be done? Donors should keep pressing Lebanon’s leaders to better address the economic crisis so that the government can reinvest in the security forces’ long-term viability, especially after the latest destabilising Israel-Hizbollah war. In parallel, targeted interventions by donors can help bolster the security forces’ performance and professional integrity.
- Topic:
- Security, Reform, Economy, and Donors
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
16. Frozen Billions: Reforming Sanctions on the Libyan Investment Authority
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? The UN Security Council has granted the Libyan sovereign wealth fund permission to reinvest some of its assets that have been frozen since 2011. But Council members remain reluctant to reform the sanctions constraining Libya’s finances while the country is divided. They also lack confidence in the fund’s competence. Why does it matter? The Security Council imposed an asset freeze on the fund during Libya’s 2011 civil war, with the aim of preventing the Qadhafi regime from plundering the fund, estimated then at over $60 billion. Over a decade after the regime’s ouster, the sanctions still act as a brake on the fund. What should be done? Council members should make further reforms to the sanctions regime to enable the fund to grow, while maintaining safeguards. Since resolution of Libya’s political crisis is not imminent, they should also define a realistic plan for long-term sanctions relief. The fund should do more to enhance its credibility and transparency.
- Topic:
- Sovereign Wealth Funds, Sanctions, Investment, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North America
17. Calming the Red Sea’s Turbulent Waters
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Renewed violence between the U.S. and the Houthis in Yemen has brought a sudden end to the short-lived calm in the Red Sea during the Gaza ceasefire. The end of the truce threatens a dangerous escalation, not just in these waters but in the region writ large. Why does it matter? From late 2023 to early 2025, a Houthi offensive hit over a hundred vessels allegedly connected to Israel, the U.S. or the UK, raising shipping costs and triggering an international military response. With navies from over fifteen nations operating in the Rea Sea, the risk of wider hostilities is high. What should be done? A permanent end to the Gaza war and Yemen’s internal conflict, alongside a reduction in U.S. tensions with Iran, could quell Red Sea turmoil. For now, and over the longer term, Red Sea coastal states and outside powers should work harder to curb the military build-up and foster collective security.
- Topic:
- Houthis, Shipping, Armed Conflict, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Yemen, United States of America, and Red Sea
18. Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Since the Arakan Army’s seizure of much of Myanmar’s Rakhine State, Rohingya armed groups have paused their turf war in Bangladesh’s refugee camps and ramped up recruitment, using religious language to mobilise refugees to fight the Rakhine armed group. Meanwhile, the Bangladeshi government has started engaging the Arakan Army. Why does it matter? A Rohingya insurgency against the Arakan Army is unlikely to succeed, but it would do grave damage to intercommunal relations in Myanmar. Rohingya in Rakhine State are likely to be caught between the armed groups, while prospects for the return of one million refugees living in Bangladesh would fade away. What should be done? Bangladesh should step up informal cross-border aid and trade with Rakhine State while curbing the influence of Rohingya armed groups in refugee camps. The Arakan Army should strive to govern for all communities in Rakhine, while foreign donors – where possible – should limit aid cuts affecting refugees.
- Topic:
- Insurgency, Armed Conflict, Rohingya, Arakan Army, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar
19. Beyond the Election: Overcoming Bangladesh’s Political Deadlock
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Bangladesh is heading into general elections with the opposition sitting out the vote after staging major protests. With dissatisfaction growing among the public, the ruling party and its rivals should hold negotiations to curb the risk of further turmoil.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Protests, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
20. The Taliban’s Neighbourhood: Regional Diplomacy with Afghanistan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Even as many diplomats shun the Taliban regime, protesting its treatment of women and girls, emissaries of countries near Afghanistan have sought dealings with Kabul in areas like security and commerce. It is a worthwhile endeavour, and the West should not stand in the way.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Women, and Commerce
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia