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51. Toward a Viable Future for South Sudan

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ten years after independence, South Sudan is faring poorly, beleaguered by political and socio-economic ills. The civil war’s two main antagonists have an uneasy peace, but others fight on. The country needs a reset rooted in power sharing and devolution of authority from the centre.
Topic:
Civil War, Political Power Sharing, Leadership, State Building, Independence, and Power
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

52. The Exile Effect: Venezuela’s Overseas Opposition and Social Media

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A study of social media content shows that Venezuelan opposition figures often take harder anti-government lines if they flee abroad. Exiles’ voices are important, but those trying to end Venezuela’s crisis should listen to others as well, recalling that compromise offers the only peaceful exit.
Topic:
Mass Media, Leadership, Social Media, Conflict, Peace, and Opposition
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

53. Deeply Rooted: Coca Eradication and Violence in Colombia

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Coca gives Colombian small farmers a stable livelihood but also endangers their lives, as criminals battle over the drug trade and authorities try to shut it down. Bogotá and Washington should abandon their heavy-handed elimination efforts and help growers find alternatives to the hardy plant.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Violence, Rural, Illegal Trade, Organized Crime, and Farming
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, North America, and United States of America

54. The Case for More Inclusive – and More Effective – Peacemaking in Yemen

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
International efforts to end the war in Yemen are stuck in an outdated two-party paradigm, seeking to mediate between the Huthis and their foes. As it pushes for renewed talks, the UN should broaden the scope to include Yemeni women’s and other civil society groups.
Topic:
Civil Society, International Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Peace
Political Geography:
Yemen and Persian Gulf

55. Southern Philippines: Keeping Normalisation on Track in the Bangsamoro

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Peace in the Philippines’ majority-Muslim region requires disarming 40,000 ex-rebels and encouraging economic development where they live. But progress toward these goals, together called “normalisation”, is sputtering. Both Manila and the former insurgents need to hit the accelerator lest the process lose momentum entirely.
Topic:
Religion, Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, Peace, Economic Development, and Identity
Political Geography:
Asia, Philippines, and Oceania

56. Ending Nigeria’s Herder-Farmer Crisis: The Livestock Reform Plan

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria’s latest plan for curbing herder-farmer conflict is facing obstacles, including staff and funding shortages as well as political opposition. If this initiative fails, there could be more rural violence. Abuja should work with donors to raise both money and awareness of the scheme’s benefits.
Topic:
Conflict, Violence, Rural, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

57. Myanmar’s Military Struggles to Control the Virtual Battlefield

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In order to silence opposition to the February coup, Myanmar’s military is vigorously policing the internet as it quashes street protests. Outside powers and technology companies should endeavour to keep the online space free of interference and deny the junta tools of virtual repression.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Protests, Coup, Military Government, and Oppression
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

58. The Risks of a Rigged Election in Nicaragua

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With Nicaraguans heading to the polls in November, the government is already trying to engineer the outcome in its favour. An unfair ballot could spark unrest and a violent crackdown. External actors should push for reforms and dialogue with the opposition while eschewing counterproductive sanctions.
Topic:
Corruption, Elections, Voting, Oppression, Election Interference, and Rigged Elections
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, Nicaragua, and North America

59. Libya Turns the Page

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Libyan politicians have moved with salutary speed in 2021 to reunify their divided country. With UN help, the new government should hasten to clear two last hurdles: establishing a legal framework for elections and clarity about who holds supreme command of the armed forces.
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Military Strategy, Elections, State Building, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, North Africa, and MENA

60. Turkey-Greece: From Maritime Brinkmanship to Dialogue

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In mid-2020, Turkey and Greece put their Mediterranean fleets on high alert, dramatically raising tensions in their long-running dispute over air, water, rock and now seabed gas deposits as well. Talks have been frustrating but remain the best way to contain the risk of conflict.
Topic:
Maritime Commerce, Territorial Disputes, Water, Maritime, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

61. Electoral Violence and Illicit Influence in Mexico’s Hot Land

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Campaign season in Mexico has seen a rash of murders, as organised crime seeks to cement its influence no matter which parties win. The government needs to keep trying to break bonds between criminals and authorities, beginning with efforts tailored to the country’s hardest-hit areas.
Topic:
Elections, Violence, Election Interference, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

62. Post-war Prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh left many issues unresolved and the front lines volatile. The parties should establish a formal communication channel to address urgent post-war problems, Russian peacekeepers need a clearer mandate and aid agencies must be granted access to the conflict zone.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Caucasus

63. Stemming the Insurrection in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Deadly conflict in Mozambique’s ruby- and natural gas-rich northernmost coastal province feeds on a mix of colonial-era tensions, inequality and Islamist militancy. To tame the insurrection, Maputo needs to use force, with bespoke assistance from outside partners, and to carefully address underlying grievances.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Inequality, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis, and Insurrection
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

64. The Pandemic Strikes: Responding to Colombia’s Mass Protests

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In Colombia’s history of protest, the 2021 mobilisations against inequality and police brutality stand out for their breadth and intensity. Unrest has quieted for now but could soon return. The government should urgently reform the security sector while working to narrow the country’s socio-economic chasms.
Topic:
Governance, Inequality, Protests, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

65. Iraq’s Tishreen Uprising: From Barricades to Ballot Box

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The huge demonstrations that rocked Iraqi cities two years ago reverberate still, with the main grievances unaddressed. Protests could arise anew at any time, risking another lethal crackdown. The government should hold those who harmed protesters accountable and work to ensure clean elections in October.
Topic:
Social Movement, Conflict, Protests, and Oppression
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

66. Iran: The Riddle of Raisi

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Iran has a new president, consolidating the hardliners’ control over the centres of power. What will he do about the country’s numerous crises? One answer is clear: the 2015 nuclear deal’s fate remains the most pressing issue for Tehran and its foreign interlocutors.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

67. Beyond Business as Usual in Israel-Palestine

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The latest escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict brought important shifts in the status quo, underscoring the necessity of a political settlement. A peace based on equal respect for both peoples’ rights will take time, however. Steps to lower the temperature are urgent in the interim.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Peace, and Settlements
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

68. A Time for Talks: Toward Dialogue between the Gulf Arab States and Iran

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Gulf Arab states have perceived threats from Iran since the 1979 revolution. Frictions have lessened of late, offering an important opportunity. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi should keep engaging Tehran with an eye to initiating the broadest possible talks on regional peace and security.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

69. Overkill: Reforming the Legal Basis for the U.S. War on Terror

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. Congress passed a use of force authorisation that successive presidents have used to expand military action ever further. As part of our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the “War on Terror”, we argue that Washington should enact a new statute that promotes transparency and narrows the war’s scope.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, War on Terror, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

70. Oil or Nothing: Dealing with South Sudan’s Bleeding Finances

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Upon South Sudan’s independence in 2011, many hoped the country’s oil wealth would help build the state and lift citizens out of poverty. Instead, politicians have shunted these revenues toward patronage and personal enrichment, feeding internal conflict. Transparency and accountability are badly needed.
Topic:
Oil, Poverty, Natural Resources, Accountability, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

71. Relaunching Negotiations over Western Sahara

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The fighting in Western Sahara, which broke out again in November 2020, remains of low intensity. Yet outside powers would be wrong to assume that it will not escalate. With U.S. support, the new UN envoy should pursue confidence-building measures that could facilitate negotiations.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa

72. Managing Lebanon’s Compounding Crises

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Lebanon is suffering economic meltdown while its politicians dither. Reform – and fiscal relief – is unlikely before 2022 elections. While pushing for timely polls, international partners should send humanitarian assistance to ease the public’s pain, keep key infrastructure running and avert security breakdowns.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Infrastructure, Reform, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

73. A Broken Canopy: Deforestation and Conflict in Colombia

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Colombia’s vast forest is fast receding, partly because guerrillas and criminals are clearing land for farming, ranching and other pursuits. These unregulated activities are causing both dire environmental harm and deadly conflict. Bogotá should take urgent steps to halt the damage.
Topic:
Environment, Conflict, Farming, and Deforestation
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

74. Syria: Shoring Up Raqqa’s Shaky Recovery

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After suffering grievously under ISIS, and during the battles to defeat it, Raqqa is being rebuilt. The calm is tenuous, however. The U.S. and partners should work toward long-term stability in Syria’s north east, through investment and talks about sustainable governance and security arrangements.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Recovery, Sustainability, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

75. Competing Visions of International Order in the South China Sea

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The disputes in the South China Sea are fundamentally about claims of sovereignty, the broadest of which are staked by Beijing. The Chinese-U.S. rivalry, meanwhile, loads the dissension with geopolitical significance. Both major powers stand to gain by accepting the constraints of international law.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, Maritime, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

76. A Fight by Other Means: Keeping the Peace with Colombia’s FARC

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Colombia’s 2016 peace deal was a landmark achievement, convincing the FARC guerrillas to disarm and enter civilian life. Yet much remains to be done to show insurgents that they can redress their grievances through ordinary politics. The country’s leaders should recommit to finishing the job.
Topic:
Security, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

77. The Philippines’ Dilemma: How to Manage Tensions in the South China Sea

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The maritime dispute between China and the Philippines is simmering against the backdrop of strategic competition between Beijing and Washington. To keep tensions below boiling point, Manila should push for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea as well as greater regional cooperation.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Philippines

78. Beyond Emergency Relief: Averting Afghanistan’s Humanitarian Catastrophe

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
International donors cut off all but emergency aid to Afghanistan after the Taliban’s takeover in August. Months later, the state is collapsing and a humanitarian disaster is looming. Donors should work with the state to restore basic public services and mitigate the population’s suffering.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Infrastructure, Governance, Humanitarian Crisis, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

79. Vietnam Tacks Between Cooperation and Struggle in the South China Sea

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Together with the Philippines, Vietnam is on the front line of maritime disputes with China. The risk of armed confrontation is low but growing. Hanoi should redouble efforts to build confidence, starting with less sensitive issues, and to establish an effective Code of Conduct.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, Maritime, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Vietnam

80. Mali: Enabling Dialogue with the Jihadist Coalition JNIM

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Authorities in Mali seem to be considering negotiations with Jamaat Nusratul Islam wal-Muslimin, the country’s largest Islamist insurgency. Pursuing talks will be a tall order, given the stakes and the group’s al-Qaeda connection. Both the government and the militants should begin with incremental steps.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Terrorism, Conflict, Violence, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

81. Identity Crisis: Ethnicity and Conflict in Myanmar

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ethnicity and conflict are tightly linked in Myanmar, as communal groups take up arms to press grievances for which they have found no other recourse. The problem calls for dialogue and deep reform, but meanwhile authorities can take smaller steps to indicate their positive intent.
Topic:
Minorities, Reform, Ethnicity, Discrimination, Conflict, and Identity
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

82. Peace in Ukraine (III): The Costs of War in Donbas

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Years of conflict have exacerbated the economic woes of Donbas, once an industrial powerhouse. Authorities in Kyiv should take steps now to aid pensioners and encourage small trade while also planning ahead for the region’s eventual reintegration with the rest of the country.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

83. Leaders under Fire: Defending Colombia’s Front Line of Peace

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Murders of Colombian grassroots activists are increasing at an alarming rate. The killers seek to sabotage the country’s 2016 peace agreement and the rural economic reform it promised. Bogotá should step up prosecution of these crimes while pushing to improve social conditions in the countryside.
Topic:
Economics, Terrorism, Political Activism, Reform, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

84. The U.S. Presidential Election: Managing the Risks of Violence

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 2020 U.S. presidential election presents risks not seen in recent history. It is conceivable that violence could erupt during voting or protracted ballot counts. Officials should take extra precautions; media and foreign leaders should avoid projecting a winner until the outcome is certain.
Topic:
Elections, Conflict, Violence, Voting, Election Dispute, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

85. How Europe Can Help Lebanon Overcome Its Economic Implosion

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Lebanon’s reeling economy badly needs outside aid. Yet the political class, which largely created the problems, is resisting necessary change. The European Union should keep limiting its assistance to humanitarian relief until Lebanese politicians make reforms that benefit all citizens, not just the privileged few.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, Reform, European Union, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Lebanon

86. Virus-proof Violence: Crime and COVID-19 in Mexico and the Northern Triangle

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As the coronavirus rages in Mexico and the northerly Central American countries, criminal outfits have adapted, often enlarging their turf. To fight organised crime more effectively, governments should combine policing with programs to aid the vulnerable and create attractive alternatives to illegal economic activity.
Topic:
Crime, Violence, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Central America, North America, and Mexico

87. All That Glitters is Not Gold: Turmoil in Zimbabwe’s Mining Sector

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In 2019, killings by machete-wielding gangs at Zimbabwe’s gold mines jogged the government into preventive action. But police sweeps alone cannot make the sector safe. Harare should adopt reforms that allow more citizens to mine legally and head off disputes over the country’s mineral wealth.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Inequality, Mining, Organized Crime, and Wealth
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

88. Easing Cameroon’s Ethno-political Tensions, On and Offline

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Two years after Cameroon’s contested presidential election, political rivalry has taken a worrying direction as the incumbent’s supporters trade ethnic slurs with backers of his main challenger. The government should undertake electoral reforms, bar discrimination and work with social media platforms to curtail hate speech.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Social Media, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

89. Disorder on the Border: Keeping the Peace between Colombia and Venezuela

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Colombian-Venezuelan frontier, long plagued by guerrilla warfare and organised crime, is now also the site of an inter-state standoff. The two countries should urgently reopen communication channels to lower tensions and lessen the suffering of migrants who cross the border, whether legally or otherwise.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Conflict, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Venezuela

90. Venezuela: What Lies Ahead after Election Clinches Maduro’s Clean Sweep

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Following legislative elections, President Nicolás Maduro controls all of Venezuela’s major political institutions. Meanwhile, the country’s crisis deepens apace. An exit remains possible if the government and opposition adjust their zero-sum thinking to admit the need for compromise. The new U.S. administration can help.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Conflict, and Institutions
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

91. Preventing a Bloody Harvest on the Armenia-Azerbaijan State Border

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Deadly July 2020 clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces left dozens dead, civilians among them, and forced villagers to flee their homes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan state border. Shooting across the trenches along the border is more frequent today than anywhere else on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict’s front lines. Why does it matter? Efforts by Baku and Yerevan, including through limited diplomacy, a communication channel set up in 2018 and an agreement between the two sides to safeguard farmers, have largely failed to create conditions that would deter people from leaving border areas. Violence there also risks permanently damaging wider peace efforts. What should be done? The two sides should use the communication channel to warn each other about planned engineering works or other activities that might be misconstrued and lead to escalation. They should begin talks on limited cooperation to allow farmers to harvest crops, repair water networks and clear mines.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

92. Peace in Ukraine (II): A New Approach to Disengagement

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to power in 2019 promising to bring peace to Ukraine’s Donbas region, where government and Russian-backed separatist forces are locked in low-level combat. Yet a full, sustained ceasefire remains elusive. Although casualties have dropped from their 2014-2015 peak, fighting continues to kill soldiers and civilians. Why does it matter? Each of the warring parties wants a ceasefire but only if it will lead to peace on its own terms. All prefer to tolerate continued fighting rather than stop the shooting under conditions they deem unfavourable. What should be done? A comprehensive ceasefire is likely unattainable under today’s political conditions. In its absence, the parties should pursue sectoral bilateral disengagements with clear humanitarian and related goals, even as they seek a durable political settlement through talks.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

93. Raising the Stakes in Jammu and Kashmir

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? In August 2019, India unilaterally revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status, redrew its internal boundaries, and scrapped Kashmiris’ exclusive rights to immovable property and access to government jobs. To quell potential protests, the authorities ordered an unprecedented crackdown, which included detaining almost all local politicians and a months-long communications blackout. Why did it happen? Revocation of the Indian constitution’s Article 370, which gave Kashmir its previous status, had been on the Bharatiya Janata Party’s agenda for decades. Emboldened by its landslide win of a second term in May 2019, the government ordered the state’s overhaul soon afterward, without consulting Kashmiri politicians or society. Why does it matter? New Delhi claimed that its bold move would help bring peace and development to the region after three decades of conflict. One year later, its reforms, coupled with heavy-handed counter-insurgency tactics, have only exacerbated Kashmiri alienation and raised tensions with Pakistan. Kashmir’s youth continues to join militant ranks. What should be done? While New Delhi appears unlikely to reverse course, its international allies should strongly encourage it to restore Kashmiri statehood, free detained politicians and end security forces’ abuses against civilians. Pakistan’s partners should push harder for it to stop backing anti-India jihadists. Both countries should abide by their 2003 Kashmir ceasefire.
Topic:
Development, Territorial Disputes, Crisis Management, Peace, Autonomy, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Jammu and Kashmir

94. Taking Stock of the Taliban’s Perspectives on Peace

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? On 29 February 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement meant to prompt peace talks between the militant group and the Afghan government. Many issues have delayed those talks, including widespread concerns about the Taliban’s willingness to compromise in a political settlement ending the war. Why does it matter? The U.S.-Taliban deal opened a fragile window of opportunity to settle the world’s deadliest conflict. But for talks among Afghans to progress, the Taliban will need to move beyond vague governing principles and put forth concrete negotiating positions on reconciliation, power sharing and governance. What should be done? The Taliban should swiftly determine clear negotiating positions and be prepared to debate – and eventually reach compromises – on these as intra-Afghan talks unfold. The U.S. and other donors should leverage prospects of post-transition assistance as encouragement, while the Afghan government and civil society should engage the group and its ideas.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Non State Actors, Taliban, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

95. Iran: The U.S. Brings Maximum Pressure to the UN

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? A U.S. resolution seeking to extend UN arms restrictions on Iran beyond their October 2020 expiration failed at the Security Council. Washington has asserted that it will claim the right to unilaterally restore UN sanctions, which were terminated as part of the 2015 nuclear agreement. Why does it matter? Any U.S. attempt to reimpose sanctions will be controversial, given the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and likely to create deadlock at the Security Council. The administration’s goal is clear: kill the deal or make it that much harder for a successor administration to rejoin it. What should be done? The remaining parties to the deal should be united in resisting Washington’s efforts, as should other Security Council members. They should essentially disregard a U.S. “snapback” – restoring sanctions – as ineffectual, obstruct attempts to implement it and discourage Iran from overreacting to what will end up being a symbolic U.S. move.
Topic:
Diplomacy, United Nations, Sanctions, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

96. Calibrating the Response: Turkey’s ISIS Returnees

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Turkey has to deal with thousands of citizens who travelled to join ISIS and have now returned. Of the few convicted, many will soon be released from jail. Others are under surveillance. The fate of the rest is murky. Why does it matter? ISIS’s diminished stature and measures adopted by the Turkish authorities have spared Turkey from ISIS attacks for more than three years. But while the threat should not be overplayed, it has not necessarily disappeared. That Turkish returnees turn their back on militancy is important for national and regional security. What should be done? Ankara’s approach toward returnees or others suspected of ties to jihadism relies mostly on surveillance and detention. The government could consider also offering support for returnees’ families, alternatives for youngsters at risk of being drawn into militancy and support for returnees released after serving ISIS-related jail time.
Topic:
Human Rights, Law Enforcement, Violent Extremism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

97. Rethinking Peace in Yemen

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? A COVID-19 outbreak has injected new energy into diplomatic efforts to end Yemen’s regionalised civil war, now in its sixth year. But the parties remain stubbornly opposed to compromise and the UN’s two-party mediation framework no longer provides a realistic pathway to peace given the country’s political and military fragmentation. Why does it matter? The war has killed more than 112,000 people and has left 24 million in need of some form of humanitarian assistance. The pandemic could further decimate a population lacking access to health care and particularly vulnerable due to malnutrition. The worst may be prevented if the war can be halted. What should be done? The Yemeni government and Huthis should right-size expectations regarding a political settlement and accept inclusion of other political and armed factions in UN-led negotiations. The UN Security Council should draft a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire and inclusive settlement and table it if the parties stick to their positions.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Peace, Humanitarian Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Yemen and Gulf Nations

98. Miracle or Mirage? Gangs and Plunging Violence in El Salvador

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? In President Nayib Bukele’s first year in office, El Salvador has seen a sharp drop in what long were sky-high murder rates. While the public celebrates his well-known “iron fist” policies, the reasons for success might lie in quiet, informal understandings between gangs and the government. Why does it matter? It is a major feat to reduce killings by the three main gangs in one of the world’s most violent countries. But the precise causes of the decline are complex and often unclear. Recent outbreaks of gang violence and political mudslinging underline the fragility and reversibility of this achievement. What should be done? Sustaining violence reduction is key. The government should prioritise community-focused development, rehabilitation of jailed gang members and more sophisticated policing efforts, including internal checks on security forces. Should gangs keep violence down and cooperate with authorities during the pandemic, Bukele should consider opening channels for local dialogue with them.
Topic:
Crime, Governance, Law Enforcement, Reform, Violence, and Gangs
Political Geography:
South America and El Salvador

99. Ending the Dangerous Standoff in Southern Somalia

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Hundreds of troops loyal to the Federal Government of Somalia, on one side, and Jubaland regional state, on the other, are locked in a tense showdown in the Gedo region of southern Somalia. Clashes between them have already resulted in fatalities and uprooted thousands from their homes. Why does it matter? Neighbouring Ethiopia and Kenya, which are both troop contributors to the African Union’s peacekeeping mission in Somalia, seek to avoid direct confrontation but respectively support the opposing federal and Jubaland administrations. The situation plays into the hands of the Al-Shabaab Islamist insurgency, which is further entrenching its presence in Gedo. What should be done? The African Union, along with the eastern African sub-regional bloc, the Intergovernmental Authority for Development, and Somalia’s bilateral partners, should lean on Ethiopia and Kenya to push the two sides to de-escalate tensions. Talks would allow the sides to refocus energies on stemming Al-Shabaab’s gains.
Topic:
Conflict, Negotiation, Islamism, Al Shabaab, and African Union
Political Geography:
Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

100. How to Shield Education from Al-Shabaab in Kenya’s North East

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Jihadists have repeatedly attacked schools in north-eastern Kenya in the last eighteen months. In response, the government has shuttered many schools and pulled most teachers out of a long-neglected region that is one of Al-Shabaab’s main recruiting centres outside Somalia. Why does it matter? The education crisis adds to an already existing sense of marginalisation in north-eastern Kenya. Thousands of out-of-school youngsters could constitute an attractive pool of recruits for Al-Shabaab, which is engaged in a long-term campaign to deepen its foothold in the region. What should be done? The Kenyan government should afford the north east’s residents, including police reservists, a greater role in tackling militancy and revive community-centred efforts that to some degree succeeded in rolling back Al-Shabaab in the past. It should also restore learning by providing stopgap funding so local administrations can hire replacement teachers.
Topic:
Security, Education, Violence, Islamism, and Al Shabaab
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa