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182. HIV/AIDS as a Security Issue in Africa: Lessons from Uganda
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- HIV/AIDS prevention and conflict prevention should go hand in hand. They are the two blades of the scissors required to cut the strangler's cord choking Africa. Some 2.5 million Africans will die of AIDS in 2004. One in four African countries presently suffers from the effects of armed conflict.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Welfare, Non-Governmental Organization, Poverty, and War
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
183. Islamism in North Africa II: Egypt's Opportunity
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Important changes in the outlook of Egyptian Islamic activism in recent years have opened up possibilities for progressive political development, but these have gone unexploited because of the conservatism of the Egyptian government's policies. The absence of serious violence since late 1997 strongly suggests that the strategy of armed struggle (jihad) against the state has not only failed but has effectively been abandoned. At the same time, the ideology of non-violent Islamic activism has evolved and now emphatically embraces democratic principles and elements of a modernist outlook. However, unless the Egyptian government changes its approach, opens up the political field and undertakes serious political reform, the frustration which many Egyptians feel could lead to a recrudescence of violent activism at some stage. The government risks realising too late that it has squandered a vital opportunity and wasted the fruits of its own earlier successes on the security front.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, and Egypt
184. Islamism in North Africa I: The Legacies of History
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Islamism, terrorism, reform: the triangle formed by these three concepts and the complex and changeable realities to which they refer is at the centre of political debate in and about North Africa today. The role of Egyptian elements in the leadership of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda organisation is well-known, if not necessarily well understood. The involvement of Maghrebis in terrorist networks in Europe -- whether linked to al-Qaeda or not -- has recently been underlined by the suspected involvement of Moroccans in the 11 March 2004 attack in Madrid. Egypt itself has endured years of terrorist violence; few if any countries have suffered as much from terrorism as Algeria has over the last twelve years; and the bombings in Casablanca on 16 May 2003 suggest that Morocco is not immune.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Algeria, North Africa, Egypt, and Morocco
185. Northern Uganda: Understanding and Solving the Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For nearly eighteen years the insurgency of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), led by Joseph Kony, has produced great suffering in Northern Uganda, including some 1.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Jan Egeland recently termed the situation among the worst humanitarian disasters in the world. In February 2004, in one of the most horrific atrocities since the conflict began, the LRA massacred approximately 200 civilians, revealing serious deficiencies in the government's capacity to defend the population and defeat the insurgency. The conflict seriously blemishes the record of President Yoweri Museveni's National Resistance Movement (NRM), which has otherwise brought relative stability to the country. The international community has leverage and at least strong humanitarian reasons to urge a more politically oriented strategy to resolve the conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
186. Zimbabwe: In Search of a New Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For all the sound and fury of international condemnation and domestic opposition, octogenarian President Robert Mugabe maintains the upper hand in Zimbabwe. He has bludgeoned opposition parties and neutralised mass action strategies, minimised African criticism, maintained South Africa's friendship, and withstood sporadic pressure from the wider international community. It has been a masterful performance. It is also one that has done massive damage to Zimbabwe's economy, which is shrinking at world record speed. It is time to acknowledge the collective failure to date, re- evaluate strategies for resolving the crisis, and concentrate on the opportunity presented by the March 2005 parliamentary elections.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
187. Darfur Rising: Sudan's New Crisis
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan, where prospects for peace had looked so promising for much of 2003, has become a potential horror story in 2004. The rapid onset of war in its western region of Darfur has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises -- thousands dead and some 830,000 uprooted from homes. Meanwhile, the IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority for Development) peace talks in Naivasha, Kenya between the government and the insurgent Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLA) threaten to deadlock. It is urgent that these talks succeed and that, simultaneously, a parallel process begins to address both the humanitarian and political crises in Darfur.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Human Rights, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, and Sudan
188. CÔTE D'IVOIRE: "The War Is Not Yet Over"
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- "The war is not yet over", an ICG mission to Côte d'Ivoire repeatedly heard in November 2003. There are ominous signs that the Côte d'Ivoire peace process initiated in January 2003 has broken down. If the country goes back to war, it could well take all West Africa with it, endangering even recent progress in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The UN Security Council needs to take a leading role in the peace process, initially by upgrading its current presence to a full peacekeeping mission. This could include subsuming some 1,400 West African troops under the umbrella of an expanded operation. The UN should also step up cooperation between its ongoing peace operation in Liberia and its Ivorian peace mission, MINUCI.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Nations, Liberia, and Sierra Leone
189. Ethiopia and Eritrea: War or Peace?
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The next few weeks will go far to determining whether Ethiopia and Eritrea resume a path toward war - which took some 100,000 lives between 1998 and 2000 - or solidify their peace agreement. Ethiopia must decide whether to allow demarcation of the border to begin in October 2003 even though the international Boundary Commission set up under the Algiers agreement that ended the fighting has ruled that the town of Badme - the original flashpoint of the war - is on the Eritrean side. The outcome will have profound implications for both countries and the entire Horn of Africa, as well as for international law and the sanctity of binding peace agreements and arbitration processes. The international community, particularly the U.S., the African Union (AU), and the European Union (EU), all of which played major roles in brokering the Algiers agreement, need to engage urgently to help Ethiopia move the demarcation forward and to assist both parties to devise a package of measures that can reduce the humanitarian costs of border adjustments and otherwise make implementation of the demarcation more politically palatable.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, North Africa, and Ethiopia
190. Decision Time in Zimbabwe
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Change is in the air in Zimbabwe. Its citizens no longer talk about whether it will come, but rather when. All acknowledge, however, that the road will be dangerous, possibly violent. South Africa is the single country with ability to help its neighbour through the roughest patches if it is willing to engage with sufficient determination to persuade the government of President Robert Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party to sit down with their challenger, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and then facilitate and mediate negotiations for a transitional government and new elections. A range of other international players need to play supporting roles, including the EU, the Southern Africa Development Commission (SADC), the African Union (AU), and the Commonwealth, but most directly and prominently the U.S. The visit of President Bush to South Africa on 8 July is a unique opportunity to chart action that could lead to a negotiated solution and an end to the crisis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, and Zimbabwe