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151. Demos-Constraining or Demos-Enabling Federalism? Political Institutions and Policy Change in Brazil

Author:
Marta Arretche
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This research note shows the demos-enabling elements of the Brazilian federal state by examining the decision-making process of 59 legislative initiatives regarding the taxes, policies and expenditures of subnational units submitted to the Brazilian Congress between 1989 and 2006. The combination of two political institutions – the federal government's broad powers to make decisions on subnational matters (right to decide) and the majority principle for approving changes in the federal status quo – empowers the center without diminishing the rights of subunits. It is not necessary to obtain supermajorities in numerous veto arenas in order to approve legislation aimed at providing national goods, and regional minorities have few opportunities for vetoing. The center is empowered, not weak.
Political Geography:
Brazil

152. Hooray for Global Justice? Emerging Democracies in a Multipolar World

Author:
Julian Culp and Johannes Plagemann
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Rising powers are fundamentally shifting the relations of power in the global economic and political landscape. International political theory, however, has so far failed to evaluate this nascent multipolarity. This article fills this lacuna by synthesizing empirical and normative modes of inquiry. It examines the transformation of sovereignty exercised by emerging democracies and shows that – in stark contrast to emerging democracies' foreign policy rhetoric – the "softening" of sovereignty has become the norm. The present paper assesses this softening of sovereignty on the basis of a "democratic-internationalist" conception of global justice. This conception holds that global justice demands the establishment of reasonably democratic transnational relations that enable people themselves to determine what else justice requires. Because we find that the exercise of soft sovereignty by emerging democracies contributes to the realization of reasonably democratic transnational relations, we conclude that this nascent multipolarity ought to be welcomed from the democratic-internationalist view of global justice.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Brazil

153. Iran and the Arab Spring: Between Expectations and Disillusion

Author:
Henner Fürtig
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The 1979 Iranian Revolution undoubtedly belongs to the "great" revolutions of modern times – all of which were characterized by universalistic efforts and the claim to have set new social, political and cultural norms with global validity. In this sense, the Iranian revolutionaries felt the obligation to actively reintroduce Islam as a revelation for the whole world, not only for Muslims. Yet, they soon became aware that most Muslims viewed their export strategy as either an attempt to enforce Shiism, or – even worse – to conceal mere national megalomania. Therefore, the current leadership argues that the revolution should no longer be exported actively, but that Iran should serve as an example. Consequently, Supreme Leader Khamenei called the events of the Arab Spring a "natural enlargement of Iran's Islamic revolution of 1979" and credited his country for being the catalyst of this "Islamic awakening." The present article will analyze selected regional reactions to the Islamic awakening concept, which did not altogether meet Iranian expectations.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Islam, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

154. Credit-constrained in Risky Activities? The Determinants of the Capital Stocks of Micro and Small Firms in Western Africa

Author:
Jann Lay, Michael Grimm, and Simon Lange
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in developing countries are typically considered to be severely credit constrained. Additionally, high business risks may partly explain why the capital stocks of MSEs remain low. This article analyzes the determinants of the capital stocks of MSEs in poor economies focusing on credit constraints and risk. The analysis is based on a unique, albeit cross-sectional but backward-looking, micro data set on MSEs covering the economic capitals of seven West-African countries. The main result is that capital market imperfections indeed seem to explain an important part of the variation in capital stocks in the early lifetime of MSEs. Furthermore, the analyses show that risk plays a key role in capital accumulation. Risk-averse individuals seem to adjust their initially low capital stocks upwards when enterprises grow older. MSEs in risky activities owned by wealthy individuals even seem to over-invest when they start their business and subsequently adjust capital stocks downwards. As other firms simultaneously suffer from capital shortages, such behaviour may imply large inefficiencies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
West Africa

155. What Friends Are Made Of: Bilateral Linkages and Domestic Drivers of Foreign Policy Alignment with China

Author:
Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
With China's emergence as a global economic and political power, it is commonly assumed that its leadership's influence in international politics has increased considerably. However, systematic studies of China's impact on the foreign policy behavior of other states are rare and generally limited to questions regarding economic capabilities and the use of coercive power. This paper seeks to contribute to the literature on China's global political rise by taking a broader perspective. Drawing on voting data from the UN General Assembly for the last two decades, it explores the plausibility of different explanations for foreign policy similarity: economic, diplomatic and military linkages; domestic institutional similarities; and parallel problem‐solving processes. The logistic regression analyses find that high similarity levels correlate with shared regime characteristics and comparable patterns of sociopolitical globalization. The results further indicate that foreign aid and arms trading seem to help buy support in global politics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Emerging Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
China and Israel

156. The Nature and Role of Regional Agreements in International Environmental Politics: Mapping Agreements, Outlining Future Research

Author:
Miriam Prys, Jörg Balsiger, and Niko Steinhoff
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Global agreements to mitigate climate change, conserve biodiversity or combat desertification typically take center stage in scholarly discussions about international environmental politics. Even though the United Nations Environment Programme reported ten years ago that regional agreements make up two‐thirds of all international treaties, regional cooperation has by comparison either received scant attention or been conceptually and empirically lumped together with global treaties. This lack of knowledge about the historical and current scope of regional governance is a serious obstacle to understanding the architecture of global environmental governance and to overcoming current bottlenecks in international environmental cooperation. In response, we report on the outcome of an analysis that complements the most comprehensive database on international environmental agreements (iea.uoregon.edu) with variables for analysis at the regional level. We introduce a multidimensional typology of regional agreements based on contiguous/noncontiguous agreement membership, contiguous/noncontiguous spatial ambit, and whether membership and ambit are adjoining and/or coextensive. We discuss the theoretical and empirical relevance of the different types of agreements and the nature and prevalence of special cases. Given the previous lack of research in this area, our primary purpose is to present a systematic account of regional environmental governance, leaving causal analysis to our own and others' future research. We identify a number of knowledge gaps and analytical directions in the conclusion.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations

157. The Politics of Contestation in Asia: How Japan and Pakistan Deal with their Rising Neighbors

Author:
Daniel Flemes, Georg Strüver, and Hannes Ebert
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Rising powers have attracted tremendous interest in international politics and theory. Yet the ways in which secondary powers strategically respond to regional changes in the distribution of power have been largely neglected. This article seeks to fill this gap by presenting a systematic comparative analysis of the different types of and causes of contestation strategies undertaken by secondary powers. Empirically, it focuses on two contentious regional dyads in East and South Asia, exploring how structural, behavioral, and historical factors shape the way in which Japan and Pakistan respond, respectively, to China's and India's regional power politics. The paper concludes that the explanatory power of these factors depends on the particular context: in the case of Japan, China's militarily assertive regional role has invoked the most significant strategic shifts, while in the case of Pakistani contestation, shifts in polarity have had the largest impact on the strategic approach.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Japan, China, and India

158. Does Uranium Mining Increase Civil Conflict Risk? Evidence from a Spatiotemporal Analysis of Africa from 1945 to 2010, September 2012

Author:
Matthias Basedau and Carlo Koos
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
We employ a two‐tier spatiotemporal analysis to investigate whether uranium operations cause armed conflict in Africa. The macrolevel analysis suggests that – compared to the baseline conflict risk – uranium ventures increase the risk of intrastate conflict by 10 percent. However, we find ethnic exclusion to be a much better predictor of armed conflict than uranium. The microlevel analysis reveals that uranium‐spurred conflicts are spatiotemporally feasible in four countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Namibia, Niger and South Africa. We find strong evidence in the case of Niger, and partial evidence in the case of the DRC. Namibia and South Africa do not yield substantial evidence of uranium‐ induced conflicts. We conclude that uranium may theoretically be a conflictinducing resource, but to the present day empirical evidence has been sparse as most countries are still in the exploration phase. Considering that the coming years will see 25 African countries transition from uranium explorers into producers, we strongly suggest that our analysis be revisited in the coming years.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Post Colonialism, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa

159. Political Polarization in Taiwan: A Growing Challenge to Catch-all Parties?

Author:
Cal Clark and Alexander C. Tan
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
For the last decade, politics in Taiwan have become increasingly polarized over the national identity issue. Yet, the bitter division between the two major parties is not really reflected in the electorate. We seek to explain this paradox by examining the changing nature of political parties, in particular the growing role of ideological activists in campaigns, the rise of cultural and identity issues, the difficulty for new parties to emerge, the decline of catch-all parties, and the tendency for major parties to engage in cartel activities.
Topic:
Culture
Political Geography:
Taiwan

160. Ma Ying-jeou's Presidential Discourse

Author:
Jonathan Sullivan and Eliyahu V. Sapir
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Despite the substantial advances made in cross-Strait relations during Ma Ying-jeou's (Ma Yingjiu) first term, the ROC president's rhetoric varied considerably as he grappled with the difficult reality of implementing campaign and inauguration pledges to establish better relations with China while striving to maintain national respect and sovereignty. In this article, we put forward a framework for measuring, analysing and explaining this variation in President Ma's first-term discourse. Analysing a very large number of Ma's speeches, addresses, etc., we provide empirical assessments of how the content of Ma's public pronouncements has developed over time, how his rhetoric varies according to the strategic context and timing of a speech, and how his discourse compares to that of his predecessor, Chen Shui-bian (Chen Shuibian). In addressing these questions, the article contributes a quantitative perspective to existing work on political discourse in Taiwan and to the growing methodological and applied literature on how to systematically analyse Chinese political text.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
China and Taiwan

161. The Impact of Electoral System Reform on Taiwan's Local Factions

Author:
Christian Göbel
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In 2004, the single non-transferable vote (SNTV) was abolished in Taiwan. The SNTV had long been seen as a major factor in the sustenance of county-and township-level clientelist networks (“local factions”). It was also associated with phenomena such as extremism, candidate-centred politics, vote-buying, clientelism and organized crime involvement in politics. More recent scholarship, however, has led to doubts that a single formal institution like an electoral system could have such a powerful influence on electoral mobilization. This article puts these positions to an initial test. It examines the impact of the electoral reform on the mobilization capacity of a local faction in a rural county notorious for its factionalism. By illuminating its intricate mobilization structures, it provides support for the second position: These structures are too resilient to be affected by even a radical electoral reform.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Taiwan

162. Liberalist Variation in Taiwan: Four Democratization Orientations

Author:
Wang Hung-jen
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In this paper I analyse how Taiwanese liberalist scholars have discursively and operationally shaped the meanings of Taiwanese democratization via a mix of liberal values and nationalist concerns. I will argue that a valid understanding of democratization in Taiwan has never emerged in a way that adequately responds to a liberalist perspective of the country's ongoing political development. Instead, such an understanding has been subjectively influenced by liberal intellectuals writing on the subject. In other words, current discourses in Taiwan represent efforts on the part of scholars to manage connections between liberalist values and nationalist concerns rather than shared views regarding facts emerging from Taiwanese democratization. In this paper I discuss four types of liberalist orientations to Taiwanese democratization – universal, moderate, pragmatic and nationalist – in the contexts of national-identity constraints, a balance between liberal values and national identity, and flexibility regarding liberalist and nationalist concerns. I conclude that democratization research in Taiwan reflects an aspect of knowledge production formulated by the relationship between the researcher and the subject under study.
Topic:
Democratization and Development
Political Geography:
Taiwan

163. Cross-Strait Relations and the Way Forward: Observations from a European Integration Perspective

Author:
Stefan Fleischauer
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The new policy platform in Taiwan of economic liberalization toward the Chinese mainland which was inaugurated by President Ma Ying-jeou (Ma Yingjiu) in 2008 has been the source of both expectation and anxiety. While some observers believe that this policy of rapprochement will usher in an era of cross-Strait prosperity and peace, others are concerned about Taiwan's de facto sovereignty as well as the negative economic impacts that the liberalization policy might entail. In particular, it has often been claimed (or feared) that the liberalization process will lead to some form of political integration between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. In this article, I wish to offer some insights into the current state of cross-Strait interactions derived from the European integration process.
Political Geography:
Europe and Taiwan

164. No Winds of Change: Taiwan's 2012 National Elections and the Post-Election Fallout

Author:
Gunter Schubert
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Taiwan held its first combined national elections on 14 January 2012. Though the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the largest opposition party, fared much better in the Legislative Yuan elections than it did in 2008, DPP presidential contender Tsai Ying-wen's (Cai Yingwen) clear defeat at the hands of the Kuomintang (KMT, Guomindang) incumbent, Ma Ying-jeou (Ma Yingjiu), in the presidential race came as a surprise. The article examines the election campaigns of both Tsai and Ma, summarizes the election results, and analyses the reasons why the DPP failed to retake the presidency. It then discusses the post-election debate within the DPP on the future of its China policy and ponders what can be expected from the second Ma administration.
Political Geography:
China and Taiwan

165. The New Federalism of Mexico's Party System

Author:
Francisco Cantú and Scott Desposato
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Federalism is widely lauded for its ability to manage deep social divisions and promote efficient policy in democratic systems, but it has been criticized for its impact on party system nationalization. In this paper, we explore the role of formal and informal institutions on party system nationalization in the Mexican political system, focusing on legislative politics. In Mexico, an end of one-party rule transformed the nature of center–periphery relations, empowering subnational actors and giving them incentives to act on the national stage. Using an original dataset, we show that these changes resulted in national parties dividing along state lines on policy decisions, and that the magnitude of these divisions depends primarily on 1) the informal centralization of career resources, 2) the extent to which parties are ideological and programmatic, and 3) the personal vote incentives of electoral rules.
Political Geography:
Mexico

166. I Want It All, and I Want It Now: The Political Manipulation of Argentina's Provincial High Courts

Author:
Andrea Castagnola
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Provincial supreme courts are important players in local politics because justices can affect the interest of the ruling governors; however, no research has addressed the factors that affect judicial turnover in provincial high courts in new democracies. This research attempts to fill this gap by using original data on the 525 departures of all provincial high court justices in Argentina from 1983 to 2009. My guiding hypothesis is that the stability of a justice on the bench depends on the political proximity of the justice to the ruling governor rather than on the executive's institutional capacity to impeach. This study reveals that being aligned with the faction of the ruling governor is a major factor in accounting for judicial turnover not only in single-party provinces, as expected, but also in multi-party provinces. Because provincial politics have proven to be a major source of power for national politicians, governors would prefer to have a friendly court during their administration.
Political Geography:
Argentina

167. Bridging the Participation Gap with Government-sponsored Neighborhood Development Programs: Can Civic Skills Be Taught?

Author:
Katsuo A. Nishikawa
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
I argue that innovative development programs that require citizen participation in the production of public goods can have unexpected benefits for individuals' dispositions toward democracy. In particular, I explore the effect of taking part in state-sponsored neighborhood development programs – direct-democracy type programs that require individuals to organize within their community as a precondition for state help – on participant dispositions toward democracy and willingness to take part in politics. To test this hypothesis, I use original survey data collected in the Mexican state of Baja California. To measure the effect of participation in neighborhood development programs, I conduct a quasi experiment via propensity score matching. I find robust evidence suggesting that participating in such programs correlates with higher levels of political participation, a better sense of community, more positive retrospective evaluations of the economy (according to both pocketbook and sociotropic measures), and overall higher support for the government.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Mexico

168. Bullets and Votes: Violence and Electoral Participation in Mexico

Author:
Miguel Carreras and Alejandro Trelles
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In this paper we analyze the effect of criminal violence on electoral participation in Mexico. Many scholars have studied the origins of criminal violence, as well as the success or failure of contemporary regimes in dealing with it. However, few have studied how it affects voter turnout. Following recent findings in the behavioral subfield, we hypothesize that as criminal violence increases, citizens abandon public channels of participation and take refuge in their private spheres. Using longitudinal and geostatistical tools to analyze Mexican municipalities in the last decade, we find that the level of electoral turnout is lower in the most violent regions of the country. In the final section, we use survey data to confirm that citizens exposed to high levels of criminal violence are less likely to vote.
Political Geography:
Mexico

169. "Today There Are No Indigenous People" in Chile?: Connecting the Mapuche Struggle to Anti-Neoliberal Mobilizations in South America

Author:
Kevin Funk
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The books under review all deal with the same fundamental phenomenon: mobilization against neoliberal policies by South American indigenous groups. These works fall into two groups: those that focus on the Mapuche struggle in Chile, and those that consider anti-neoliberal indigenous mobilization in the region more broadly. Just as literature in the former group fails to draw any linkages between the Mapuche and other South American indigenous struggles, the latter body of literature does not engage with Chile as a case worthy of consideration. This essay delineates the arguments made by scholars from both groups and argues that they must be brought into dialogue with one another in order to develop both a more holistic conceptualization of the Mapuche struggle in Chile and a more complete understanding of indigenous mobilization in the region. Further empirical work is needed on how Mapuche mobilization relates to other indigenous, anti-neoliberal mobilizations in South America.
Political Geography:
South America and Chile

170. Mapping Political Violence – The Approaches and Conceptual Challenges of Subnational Geospatial Analyses of Intrastate Conflict

Author:
Alexander De Juan
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The rationale is straightforward and persuasive: intrastate conflicts are by definition subnational phenomena. If we want to understand them fully, it may be wise to refocus our attention from the country level to the subnational level. Where violence is located might inform us as to why it erupts and how it is linked to various political, economic or social factors. The number of statistical geospatial analyses undertaken at the subnational level has been increasing constantly in recent years. Even though such studies have contributed greatly to peace and conflict research, they have come with their own challenges. Most importantly, they often do not adequately consider the theoretical and conceptual implications of switching from conventional cross‐country to subnational analysis; this has led to dubious theoretical arguments and conclusions. Moreover, operationalization and measurement issues often limit these analyses' explanatory power. The paper reviews several geospatial analyses of violent conflict, points out the limitations of the previous research and proposes some potential avenues for improvement.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Political Violence, Economics, and War

171. Subjective Risk and Participation in Micro Life Insurance in Ghana

Author:
Lena Giesbert
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the determinants of households' decisions to purchase micro life insurance, the most common but least investigated type of microinsurance. It uses household survey data collected in southern Ghana in 2009. Insurance participation and extent of coverage are examined against a standard benchmark model, which argues that life insurance uptake increases with risk aversion, the probability of risk, initial wealth, and the “intensity for bequests.” Many of these predictions indeed hold in the case of micro life insurance. However, the results of probit and tobit models show that nonstandard factors also explain the participation decision. Unlike the case with other available types of insurance, there is a significant negative association between households' subjective idiosyncratic risk perception and the uptake of micro life insurance. Additionally, households' micro life insurance participation is strongly related to their relationships with formal financial services providers and their membership in social networks. These findings suggest that poorer households view microinsurance as a risky option.
Topic:
Health, Poverty, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

172. Domestic Security in the Maghreb: Deficits and Counter-Measures

Author:
Hanspeter Mattes
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Terrorism and crime, particularly organised crime with its close links to terrorism, currently constitute the greatest challenges to the domestic security of the Maghreb states Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Mauretania. Additional challenges have resulted from the social protests of 2011 in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, which gained unexpected political momentum and culminated in the ousting of regimes. Terrorism and organised crime are, to varying extents, prevalent in all Maghreb states and have led to the introduction of extensive counter-measures by governments and security agencies. These measures comprise five categories of activity: (1) increased personnel for security agencies and efficiency-enhancing reforms within these agencies; (2) a significant increase in and upgrading of equipment for security agencies; (3) the strengthening of the legal foundation (laws, regulations) for combating these offences with judicial measures; (4) an increase in bilateral, regional and international cooperation in the field of security; and (5) the implementation of preventive measures. The fifth measure, however, has received considerably less attention than the others. Some measures have entailed human rights violations. Nonetheless, as yet their use has sufficed to contain the threats posed by terrorism and crime.
Topic:
Security, Crime, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, and Tunisia

173. Frames We Can Believe In: Official Framing and Ideology in the CCP's Quest for Legitimacy

Author:
Maria Bondes and Sandra Heep
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In the debate on authoritarian resilience, the importance of persuasion to regime legitimacy has been widely acknowledged, yet a conceptual framework explaining the role of persuasion is still lacking. Against this backdrop, we argue that the framing perspective (Benford and Snow 2000) provides a useful basis for such a framework. Drawing on Beetham's (1991) model of legitimacy, we contend that the ruling elites in authoritarian regimes propagate official frames in a continuous effort to reproduce the belief of the populace in the elites' leadership qualities and their determination to serve the common interest. In the empirical part of our paper we look at the case of China, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has in recent years reemphasized persuasion as a means of reproducing legitimacy. We then apply our theory in an analysis of the conceptual shifts in the CCP's frames and ideology, as propagated under its secretary general, Hu Jintao.
Topic:
Government, Political Theory, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
China and Israel

174. Is There a "Chinese School" of IR?

Author:
Nele Noesselt
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Research on Chinese International Relations (IR) theory has produced a variety of discourses, including post-positivist analyses, contributions by area specialists and China watchers, and articles by Chinese IR scholars. These strands, however, hardly overlap or communicate with each other. To close the gap between “the self-reflection of the core” (“Western” IR) (Waever/Tickner 2009: 3) and “the periphery's revolt against [“Western”] IR” paradigms (ibid.), it is necessary to view China (and other non-“Western” regions) as more than simply a playground for theory testing. This paper thus goes beyond the metatheoretical debate about the possibility of non-“Western” IR. It argues that even though the IR debates in China are heavily influenced by the trends of “Western” IR Studies, the claim regarding the establishment of a “Chinese school of IR” is not a hollow slogan. Indigenous frameworks are already under construction.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
China and Israel

175. Finding the Cases that Fit: Methodological Challenges in Peace Research

Author:
Claudia Simons and Franzisca Zanker
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Subnational comparative research has received increasing attention as a method that is academically rigorous and offers in-depth knowledge about specific cases. However, the practical difficulties surrounding the selection of cases to be researched and compared are seldom discussed in a meaningful way in academic circles. Even though a research design may itself be very elaborate, we need significant information on the cases before we can actually decide on useful comparisons. Based on our experiences in studying how power-sharing peace agreements affect the local level and why conflict dynamics often continue, we consider the following basic question: How do we actually know that a specific case suits a particular research design?
Topic:
Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Political Theory, and Power Politics

176. Incumbents without a Campaign Finance Advantage: Competition and Money in Chile's Congressional Elections

Author:
Joel Johnson
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Research from various countries has shown that incumbents in legislative elections raise and spend more money when they face a tougher contest. A statistical analysis of Chilean candidates' campaign finance disclosures shows the opposite: an inverse relationship between incumbent spending and electoral competitiveness. This occurs because Chile's deputies are relatively limited in their influence over policy and pork and because the congressional electoral system makes most competitive contests relevant only to the intra-coalitional balance of power. This account implies that political finance is as much a function of political systems and the supply of contributions as it is candidates' demand for funds, and motivates several hypotheses about campaign finance in Chile. Among others, the analysis confirms that incumbents and challengers compete on a level playing field, spending similar amounts of campaign finance. The paper also illustrates that incumbents and challengers fare equally well in Chile's “secret” donation system.
Political Geography:
Chile

177. United by Discord, Divided by Consensus: National and Sub-national Articulation in Bolivia and Peru, 2000– 2010

Author:
Alberto Vergara
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
From 2000 to 2010, Bolivia and Peru underwent similar processes of political decentralization toward the meso level of the government. Three elections later in Peru and two in Bolivia, the ability of national political parties to articulate interests differs markedly between the two countries. Peru tends toward fragmentation with national parties incapable of participating or successfully competing in subnational elections, while in Bolivia, the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) – and other parties to a lesser extent – are increasingly capable of participating and winning subnational offices. This paper argues that, despite having undergone very similar institutional reforms, the difference between the cases can largely be explained by two “society-side” variables: the caliber of the political ideas in debate and political social density. The substantive quality of ideas in debate and a greater political social density have been crucial to the Bolivian trend, while their absence has lessened the possibility of anything similar occurring in Peru. In general terms, the article sheds light on the social conditions that favor party- building in a context of decentralization reform.
Political Geography:
Peru and Bolivia

178. Pursuing Centralization amidst Decentralization: The Politics of Brazil's Innovative Response to HIV/AIDS

Author:
Eduardo Gómez
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In recent years, Brazil has been highly revered for its response to HIV/AIDS. Despite the government's delayed response, why and how did the national AIDS program eventually become so successful? This is even further puzzling when one considers the challenges associated with Brazil's decentralized response to healthcare needs, lack of subnational resources and political will to effectively implement AIDS policy. This article maintains that Brazil's successful response eventually required the strategic centralization of national AIDS bureaucratic and policy authority, entailing policies designed to aid local governments while creating fiscal policies incentivizing sub-national compliance with the national bureaucracy and more effective policy implementation. Taking advantage of renewed political support, kindled by international pressures and the president's reputation building pursuits, the sources of AIDS officials' success, however, resided not in their technical and financial prowess, but in their ability to forge historically- based partnerships with civic AIDS NGOs and social movements sharing like-minded ideational beliefs in policy centralization. This article also discusses how these findings contribute new insights into theories addressing the reasons for centralization, as well as the ideational sources of gradual institutional change.
Topic:
Civil Society and Government
Political Geography:
Brazil

179. Measuring Legislative Input on Presidential Agendas (Argentina, 1999– 2007)

Author:
Alejandro Bonvecchi and Javier Zelaznik
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Presidential agenda success is usually accounted for through measures of interbranch cooperation, such as bill approval rates, participation rates, and roll-call data of support from presidential initiatives. These measures do not provide an accurate picture of presidential agenda success because they cannot capture the ability of presidents or Congress to shape the substance of legislation. To overcome this limitation, this paper proposes a combination of two measures of influence on legislative outcomes: the Legislative Input Score for partisan involvement in lawmaking, and the Barrett and Eshbaugh-Soha Scale for legislative substance. To illustrate the potential of these measures, it puts them to work in analyzing the ability of presidents to control the substance of their proposed legislation in Argentina between 1999 and 2007. Preliminary results show that when agenda success is measured with these scores, presidents can consistently shape legislative substance regardless of popularity, coalition size, and honeymoon periods.
Political Geography:
Argentina

180. India's Turn in Climate Policy: Assessing the Interplay of Domestic and International Policy Change

Author:
Joachim Betz
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
India has long been regarded as a deal-breaker in international climate negotiations; it was at the summit in Copenhagen that India first abandoned its old strategic line and made a commitment to reduce carbon emissions voluntarily. This shift was accompanied by a proliferation of domestic initiatives to save energy, to develop regenerative energies, etc. Traditional IR approaches remain insufficient to explain this policy shift – which is the aim of this paper – insofar as they fail to adequately take into account the fact that climate policies have to confront two audiences: a domestic and an international one, each presenting different tactical necessities for official reaction. On the international front, we argue that globally, India intended to be perceived as a responsible actor, one deserving of a greater say in global governance matters. On the domestic level, shrinking national energy reserves and mounting import dependence made the co-benefit of energy saving in reducing greenhouse gas emissions evident. The shift was made easier because important business associations aligned with a more eco-friendly development perspective and because the reduction commitments made by the Indian government on an international stage did not demand very stringent domestic emission reductions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Globalization
Political Geography:
India

181. Informelle Politik“ und „informelle Institutionen“: Konzeptionelle Grundlagen, analytische Zugänge und Herausforderungen für das Studium autoritärer und anderer politischer Herrschaftssysteme

Author:
Patrick Köllner
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Understanding and explaining the shape and functioning of systems of political rule requires a focus on their informal elements, which exist alongside and interact with formal elements. And indeed, political science and area studies have long been concerned with various aspects of “informal politics” and “informal institutions”. Based on a survey of relevant literature, I show that the empirically-rich work focusing on the “non-OECD world” has applied the term “informal politics” in different ways, leading to conceptual ambiguity. Moreover, the term informal politics, as used in the literature, tends to lack in terms of conceptual differentiation. In contrast, the conceptual and broader analytical foundations of the study of informal institutions have become more advanced in recent times. Here, I particularly highlight work on different “genetic” types of informal institutions – tradition- and transition-based informal institutions – and on the possible relations between informal and formal institutions. Finally, I suggest that a focus on political regimes is particularly useful for analyzing, from an institutional perspective, the shape and functioning of autocracies (and other systems of political rule). However, the very opacity of such systems of rule as well as practical research obstacles will continue to bedevil the study of informal institutions in autocracies.
Topic:
Democratization, Political Economy, Politics, Political Theory, and Governance

182. When Voicelessness Meets Speechlessness – Struggling for Equity in Chinese-Ghanaian Employment Relations

Author:
Karsten Giese and Alena Thiel
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In this article Chinese-Ghanaian employment relations are analyzed using the concepts of foreignness, the psychological contract, equity, and cross-cultural communication. Based on a qualitative study conducted in Accra, Ghana, we discuss the labor market in general and introduce the conditions under which Chinese sojourners operate their family trade businesses in the city. After discussing the phenomenon of Ghanaian employment within Chinese trade companies from a theoretical perspective, we explain how Chinese employers' and Ghanaian employees' culturally based perceptions of employment relations are contradictory and prone to conflict. We then show how, under the condition of the employers' foreignness, Ghanaian employees perceive their psychological contracts as being violated and Chinese employers regard the equity of exchange relations as distorted. We discuss how Ghanaian employees cope with this situation by means of voice, silence, retreat or destruction, while Chinese employers, who lack both sufficient language skills and effective sanctions, choose to endure perceived distortions of equity and in some cases ultimately terminate employment relations when inadequate cross-cultural communication results in a failure to mediate conflicts.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Ghana

183. Institutional Conflict Settlement in Divided Societies: The Role of Subgroup Identities in Self-Government Arrangements

Author:
Alexander De Juan
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Institutions can contribute to regulating interethnic conflict; however, in many cases they fail to bring about lasting peace. The paper argues that their negligence of intraethnic factors accounts for some of this failure. Ethnic groups are often treated as unitary actors even though most consist of various linguistic, tribal or religious subgroups. This internal heterogeneity is often obscured by overarching collective ethnic identities that are fostered by interethnic conflict. However, when such interethnic conflict is settled, these subgroup differences may come back to the fore. This “resurgence” can lead to subgroup conflict about the political and economic resources provided through intergroup institutional settlements. Such conflict can in turn undermine the peace-making effect of intergroup arrangements. Different subgroup identity constellations make such destructive effects more or less likely. The paper focuses on self-government provisions in the aftermath of violent interethnic conflict and argues that lasting intergroup arrangements are especially challenging when they involve “contested” ethnic groups.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Religion, Governance, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Iraq

184. From Top To Bottom (and Back To The Top Again): Federal Spending, Sub-national Coalitions, and Protests in Argentina, 2002 – 2006

Author:
Lorena Moscovich
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Can federal-state relations affect popular protests? Using an extensive dataset measuring local protests in the Argentine provinces (2002– 2006), I assess the effects of the president's and governors' tactical allocations on the persistence of contentious events. I analyze how the delivery of federal resources, to both provincial governments and local social organizations, affects the chances of protests occurrence and the nature of its demands. Results show that federal spending increases the frequency of protests in the Argentine provinces, particularly when provincial governments are not involved in its delivery. In addition, protest demands are sensitive to president's discretional expenditure, suggesting a different dynamics in which protests became a legitimate channel to obtain federal monies.
Political Geography:
Argentina

185. Political Factionalism in Southern Mexico: The Case of Oaxaca (2000-2006)

Author:
Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article provides an explanation of major civil upheaval and violent political turmoil – hereinafter referred to as “active political factionalism” – that take place in the Mexican state of Oaxaca. More specifically, this work identifies the main causes of extra-institutional protest politics or uncivil modes of political action that seriously affect political stability and undermine democratic advancement. The analysis focuses on the effects of two groups of explanatory factors: i) deteriorated socioeconomic conditions (such as poverty and inequality), and ii) institutional limitations (corruption, electoral exclusion, a weak rule of law, among others) in a context of “subnational authoritarianism.” The study also examines some of the mechanisms through which these variables operate and interact with other factors (resources, opportunities, government actions, etc.) to generate political factionalism. This work finally assesses the relative importance of these two groups of explanatory factors. Evidence presented here shows that institutional factors are the primary sources of political factionalism in Oaxaca, while socioeconomic factors are quite significant but not predominant.
Political Geography:
Mexico

186. In Defense of Oral History: Evidence from the Mercosur Case

Author:
Gian Luca Gardini
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article makes a case in defense of oral history in the study of political science and international relations. The existing literature has scrutinized the technical aspects and appropriate use of oral material. This article focuses on the circumstances under which oral history may be an indispensable method of scholarly investigation: first, when written primary sources are not readily available; second, when an investigation targets complex and secret high-level negotiations; and third, when the main research concern is the human agent's perspective and ideational factors. The article first addresses the issue of the reliability and rigor of oral history as compared to written sources and then concentrates on the creation of Mercosur as an example of the validity of oral history under the three circumstances identified. The conclusion proposes a revival of a more historical approach to political studies.
Political Geography:
Brazil and Argentina

187. China and Brazil: Economic Impacts of a Growing Relationship

Author:
Rhys Jenkins
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The paper analyses the economic impacts of China's re-emergence on Brazil, looking at both the direct effects of China on Brazil in terms of bilateral trade and investment flows and the indirect effects through increased competition in export markets for manufactured goods and higher world prices for primary commodities. Despite a surge in Chinese FDI in Brazil in 2010, the main driver of bilateral relations is trade. While bilateral trade has grown rapidly, the pattern that has emerged has given rise to concern because Brazil's exports are concentrated in a small number of primary products while imports from China are almost entirely of manufactured goods that are becoming more technologically sophisticated over time. Brazil has benefitted in the short term from the high prices of primary commodities (partly caused by growing Chinese demand), but has lost export markets to China in manufactures, contributing to the "primarization" of the country's export basket.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China and Brazil

188. Economic Liberalization and Trade Relations between Mexico and China

Author:
Roberto Hernández Hernández
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyses the commercial relationship between Mexico and China in the context of the liberalization policies enacted by both countries. The policies were developed in the framework of economic globalization and worldwide strategic military power, starting from the end of the Cold War. Against this backdrop, the paper analyses the current trade relations between China and Mexico. The text emphasizes the public policy of both countries, presenting similarities and asymmetries along with the results of their commercial policies and specific business practices.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
China and Mexico

189. The Puzzling Decline in Rural Women's Labor Force Participation in India: A Reexamination

Author:
Daniel Neff, Kunal Sen, and Veronika Kling
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Between 2004/2005 and 2009/2010 there was a sharp fall in female labor force participation (LFP) in rural India. Why did this occur? We look at the four standard explanations: that more women in rural areas are now pursuing higher education and are therefore not available for work (education effect), that household incomes are rising quickly enough that there is a tendency for women to withdraw from the labor force to attend to domestic duties (income effect), that employment opportunities for women are decreasing, and that social and cultural factors may be interacting with these three factors and amplifying their effects. Our findings suggest that the decline in rural women's LFP could potentially be due to an income effect and partly due to an education effect. We find no evidence of changes in employment opportunities or of social and cultural interaction effects that could explain the decline in rural female LFP.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Gender Issues, Social Stratification, Labor Issues, and Culture
Political Geography:
India

190. Chinese Migration to Russia as Revealed by Narratives in Chinese Cyberspace

Author:
Artem Rabogoshvili
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The article provides a seminal analysis of the electronic resources in the Chinese cyberspace devoted to the labour migration of Chinese people to Russia. The author focuses on the online narratives and media stories published on three types of electronic resources – government websites of the northeast provinces of the PRC, online reports by the Chinese news agencies, and postings on bulletin board systems (BBSs) in order to find answers to the following research questions: 1. What is the role of Chinese migrants' narratives circulated via different electronic resources on the Internet in the reproduction of the state-regulated imagination of Russia? 2. To what extent have different types of electronic resources (government websites, news agency websites, BBSs) been used to renegotiate this imagination? The research has revealed that the websites of PRC government bodies tend to convey a rather consolidated understanding of Russia as a destination country, frequently publishing the narratives of successful migrants online. The mass media reports tend to provide regular coverage of a broader range of themes related to migration, including those related to the legal and economic vulnerability of Chinese labour migrants in Russia. The semi-anonymous and non-official character of the bulletin board system in turn has allowed its participants to make enquiries about or engage in the discussions of aspects of migration that would never be covered or described in detail by official sources such as government websites.
Political Geography:
Russia and China

191. Transnational Chinese Sphere in Singapore: Dynamics, Transformations and Characteristics

Author:
Hong Liu
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Based upon an empirical analysis of Singaporean Chinese's intriguing and changing linkages with China over the past half century, this paper suggests that multi-layered interactions between the Chinese diaspora and the homeland have led to the formulation of an emerging transnational Chinese social sphere, which has three main characteristics: First, it is a space for communication by ethnic Chinese abroad with their hometown/ homeland through steady and extensive flows of people, ideas, goods and capital that transcend the nation-state borders, although states also play an important role in shaping the nature and characteristics of these flows. Second, this transnational social sphere constitutes a dynamic interface between economy, politics and culture, which has contributed to creating a collective diasporic identity as well as social and business networks. Third, the key institutional mechanism of the transnational social sphere is various types of Chinese organizations – ranging from hometown associations to professional organizations – which serve as integral components of Chinese social and business networks.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
China and Singapore

192. "Small Is Beautiful": Lessons from Laos for the Study of Chinese Overseas

Author:
Danielle Tan
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
During the colonial period, Laos welcomed the smallest overseas Chinese communities in Southeast Asia, communities that almost disappeared after the communist forces seized power in Laos in 1975. Yet, this landlocked country shares a long history with China and even experienced a Golden Age thanks to the thriving caravan trade between Yunnan and mainland Southeast Asia. The Greater Mekong Subregion initiative, a development programme launched by the Asian Development Bank, has revitalized these historical trade routes, causing thousands of Chinese migrants to pour onto the new roads of Laos, channelled through the North–South Economic Corridor linking Kunming to Bangkok. Depicted as “an army of ants” that plunders the natural resources of this poor country, these Chinese migrants are also the main drivers of development. The paper seeks to examine the specificity of China's engagement in Laos. I suggest that this small and forgotten country can provide insightful lessons to better understand the current changes taking place in Chinese migration worldwide.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Laos

193. How Africans Pursue Low-End Globalization in Hong Kong and Mainland China

Author:
Gordon Mathews and Yang Yang
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article looks at the livelihoods and lives of African traders coming to Hong Kong and Guangzhou. These traders are practising “low-end globalization”, involving small amounts of capital, and semi-legal or illegal transactions under the radar of the law. The article first considers who these traders are, portraying them as, typically, members of the upper crust of their home societies. It then considers these traders in Chungking Mansions, Hong Kong, a building that is an entrepôt between China and the developing world. Finally, it looks at traders' livelihoods and lives in Guangzhou, South China, and traders' efforts to succeed in mainland China. The article argues that one essential economic role China plays today is in manufacturing the cheap, sometimes counterfeit goods that enable Africa and other developing-world regions to experience globalization; the African traders who come to China help make this possible.
Topic:
Globalization
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Hong Kong, South China, and Guangzhou

194. Development vs. Environment in Taibei

Author:
Simona Alba Grano and Ping-Lan Tu
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Although Taiwan arguably needs civil and official collaboration non environmental protection, the implementation of an efficient system of environmental regulations has often been hindered by the many actors involved in the process of environmental governance (state, economic actors, civil society, media), whose interests are divergent. Consequently, there is no uniform, homogeneous authority for environmental governance but rather a variety of official and less official agents of authority whose interests and powers overlap and compete. In this paper we will introduce a case study dealing with the controversy surrounding the construction of an alternative road connecting Danshui with Taibei City (namely, the Danshui North Shore Road Project, Danbei daolu) to elucidate what the key influences are that govern environmental power dynamics between different agents with conflicting (or, sometimes, colluding) interests and how these multiple levels of interaction are negotiated by the various players. Our hypothesis holds that although environmental policies are, for the most part, mandated from the top, at the local level their implementation can be bypassed, altered or stalled by these various agents.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
Taiwan

195. The Political Economy of Regional Power: Turkey under the AKP

Author:
André Bank and Roy Karadag
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In 2006/2007 Turkey became a regional power in the Middle East, a status it has continued to maintain in the context of the Arab Spring. To understand why Turkey only became a regional power under the Muslim AKP government and why this happened at the specific point in time that it did, the paper highlights the self-reinforcing dynamics between Turkey's domestic political-economic transformation in the first decade of this century and the advantageous regional developments in the Middle East at the same time. It concludes that this specific linkage – the “Ankara Moment” – and its regional resonance in the neighboring Middle East carries more transformative potential than the “Washington Consensus” or the “Beijing Consensus” so prominently discussed in current Global South politics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

196. Political Change in the Middle East: An Attempt to Analyze the "Arab Spring"

Author:
Martin Beck and Simone Hüser
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article deals with the Arab Spring as a process of deep political change in the Arab world, previously the only major world area where authoritarianism persisted unchallenged for decades. While in various countries of the Arab world mass protests in 2011 forced rulers to resign, other authoritarian regimes have – despite political and economic pressure – so far been able to remain in power, or have even been only insignificantly affected. This paper applies central social science approaches in order to analyze recent developments in the region – a major task of theoretically oriented social sciences in the coming years. In addition to providing an overview of the existing literature on the Arab Spring, the article examines the empirical results of political diversification in the Arab world. A two ‐ by ‐ two matrix of political rule that differentiates according to the type of rule and the degree of stability is presented and discussed. Although the analysis draws heavily on rent theory, it also applies findings from transition theory and revolution theory to illuminate the current political dynamics in the Middle East.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

197. The Consequences of Failed Mediation in Civil Wars: Assessing the Sri Lankan Case

Author:
Sandra Destradi and Johannes Vüllers
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
While mediation efforts in violent conflicts often fail, the academic literature on mediation has long ignored both this phenomenon and its consequences. This paper aims to fill this significant knowledge gap by examining the conditions under which the failure of mediation leads to an escalation of civil war. Based on the literature on bargaining, we argue that the degree of negotiability of the conflict parties' strategic objectives, as well as the relative weight of hardliners and moderates within those conflict parties, influence the likelihood of escalation after mediation failure. A plausibility test carried out for Norway's failed mediation in the Sri Lankan civil war confirms the usefulness of our model. In particular, the suspension of negotiations in April 2003 led to a shift towards less negotiable strategic objectives for both conflict parties and to a strengthening of hardliners within the government. This contributed to the escalation of the conflict, up to its eventual termination in May 2009.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil War, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

198. The Geopolitics of Satellite Vision and North Korea

Author:
David Shim
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Satellite imagery plays an important role in contemporary geopolitics. Arguably the most well‐known example is Colin Powell's (in)famous presentation to the UN Security Council in February 2003, during which he used satellite pictures to legitimate the invasion of Iraq. Satellite photographs draw on a techno‐scientific discourse that enables them to function as undistorted records impartially documenting space and place. As a result, they assume a defining authority to “speak the truth” – which is probably enhanced with regard to (allegedly) unknown and mysterious sites like North Korea. Since satellites are deployed to reveal what should be invisible, their ability to detect and expose, or “see from above,” implies a particular power. However, satellite photographs are not necessarily objective reflections of a geographical surface but, like all visual representations, underlie what will be called a logic of inclusion and exclusion that makes them deeply political. Taking North Korea as an example, the article argues for the need to develop a sensitized understanding concerning the use and function of satellite images as they often come to have international political implications. Referring to the linkages between seeing, knowing and acting, the article examines the role of remote sensing as a way of knowing and inquires as to the immediacy of images and the ensuing imperative to respond to them.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
North Korea

199. Rising South Korea: A Minor Player or a Regional Power?

Author:
David Shim and Patrick Flamm
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
South Korea’s rising status in regional and global affairs has received much attention in recent years. But in academic, media and policy debates South Korea is usually regarded as a mere middle power that, due to its geopolitical situation, has only limited leeway in its foreign policy. Accordingly, it must constantly maneuver between its larger neighbors: China, Japan and Russia. However, this perspective neglects the fact that the same geopolitical constraint also applies to other states in the region. No country can easily project its power over others. We use the concept of “regional power” as a template to discuss South Korea’s rising stature in regional and global politics. We argue that Seoul seems quite capable of keeping up with other assumed regional powers. Hence, we not only provide a novel account of South Korea’s foreign policy options but also go beyond current approaches by asking about the (undetermined) possibilities for Seoul’s regional relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Israel, and South Korea

200. Postwar Youth Violence: A Mirror of the Relationship between Youth and Adult Society

Author:
Sabine Kurtenbach
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Postwar societies are high-risk contexts for youth violence. Nevertheless, not all postwar societies are equally violent. This article explores how these variations can be explained by focusing on the interaction between youths and adult society in a comparison of Guatemala and Cambodia. Starting from the concept of socialization and the possibilities of performing status passages to adulthood, it analyzes not only the different risk factors but also the agency of young people and society in trying to cope with and overcome obstacles on the pathway to adulthood. Different patterns of war termination and of reconstruction after war's end are identified as major intervening variables that explain the variations in youth violence in as well as across the case studies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, War, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Cambodia and Guatemala