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201. Renewables in the Energy Transition: Evidence on Solar Home Systems and Lighting-Fuel Choice in Kenya

Author:
Jann Lay, Janosch Ondraczek, and Jana Stoever
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
We study the determinants of households' choices of lighting fuels in Kenya, including the option of using solar home systems (SHSs). The paper adds new evidence on the factors that influence the introduction and adoption of decentralized and less carbon‐intensive energy sources in developing countries. We capitalize on a unique representative survey on energy use and sources from Kenya, one of the few relatively well‐established SHSs markets in the world. Our results reveal some very interesting patterns in the fuel transition in the context of lighting‐fuel choices. While we find clear evidence for a crosssectional energy ladder, the income threshold for modern fuel use – including solar energy use – is very high. Income and education turn out to be key determinants of SHSs adoption, but we also find a very pronounced effect of SHSs clustering. In addition, we do not find a negative correlation between grid access and SHSs use.
Topic:
Development, Education, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

202. Origins and Outcomes of Electoral Institutions in African Hybrid Regimes: A Comparative Perspective

Author:
Sebastian Elischer, Gero Erdmann, and Alexander Stroh
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In the early 1990s most African countries carried out extensive reforms of their electoral regimes. Adopting a historical institutionalist approach, this paper critically examines the role of institutional path dependence in accounting for the setup of six African electoral regimes. For this purpose, we distinguish between different types of path dependence. The paper further analyzes the extent to which the development of electoral institutions contributed to the regime-type outcome (democratic/hybrid/autocratic). The main emphasis herein is on so-hybrid regimes;” in other words, regimes existing in the grey zone between democracy and autocracy. The paper finds that, while institutional path dependence has a limited but important impact on the setup of the electoral regimes, it is ultimately the process of decision-making during critical junctures that accounts for the regime type outcome. Hybrid regimes lack long-term institutional ownership.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

203. Why Do Some Oil Exporters Experience Civil War But Others Do Not? A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Net Oil-Exporting Countries

Author:
Matthias Basedau and Thomas Richter
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
According to quantitative studies, oil is the only resource that is robustly linked to civil war onset. However, recent debates on the nexus of oil and civil war have neglected that there are a number of peaceful oil-rentier states, and few efforts have been spent to explain why some oilexporting countries have experienced civil war and others have not. Methodologically, the debate has been dominated by research using either quantitative methods or case studies, with little genuine medium-N comparison. This paper aims to fill this gap by studying the conditions of civil war onset among net oil exporters using (crisp-set) Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA). Considering a sample of 44 net oil exporters between 1970 and 2008, we test conditions such as oil abundance (per capita) and dependence, the interaction of ethnic exclusion and oil reserve locations (overlap) as well as the type of political regime (polity). Our results point to a combination of necessary and sufficient conditions that has been largely ignored until now: low abundance is a necessary condition of civil war onset. Two pathways lead to civil war: first, a combination of low abundance and high dependence and, second, a combination of low abundance and the geographical overlap of ethnic exclusion with oil reserve areas within autocracies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Energy Policy, Oil, War, and Natural Resources

204. Security Policies of India, Brazil and South Africa – Regional Security Contexts as Constraints for a Common Agenda

Author:
Daniel Flemes and Alcides Costa Vaz
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In the course of the last decade, the IBSA states (India, Brazil, South Africa) have increased their weight in the shifting global order, particularly in economic affairs. Can the same be said about the IBSA states' position in the international security hierarchy? After locating the IBSA coalition in the shifting world order, we analyze its member states' willingness and capacity to coordinate their security policies and build a common global security agenda. In addition, we explore the state of and perspectives on bi- and trilateral collaboration initiatives on defense and armaments between India, Brazil and South Africa. A key reason for the mostly modest results of global security agenda coordination and cross-regional defense collaboration is that the prevailing security concerns of each country are located at the regional level. Therefore, the starting point of an assessment of the prospects of IBSA's security cooperation and its potential impact on the strategic global landscape has to be a comparative evaluation of the regional security environments, focusing on overlaps and potential synergies between the national security policies of the three state actors.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa, India, and Brazil

205. Cutting Bread or Cutting Throats? – Findings from a New Database on Religion, Violence and Peace in Sub – Saharan Africa, 1990 to 2008

Author:
Matthias Basedau, Johannes Vüllers, and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Despite the religious diversity in sub–Saharan Africa and the religious overtones in a number of African conflicts, social science research has inadequately addressed the question of how and to what extent religion matters for conflict in Africa. This paper presents an innovative data inventory on religion and violent conflict in all sub–Saharan countries for the period 1990–2008 that seeks to contribute to filling the gap. The data underscore that religion has to be accounted for in conflict in Africa. Moreover, results show the multidimensionality (e.g. armed conflicts with religious incompatibilities, several forms of non‐state religious violence) and ambivalence (inter‐religious networks, religious peace initiatives) of religion vis–à–vis violence. In 22 of the 48 sub–Saharan countries, religion plays a substantial role in violence, and six countries in particular—Chad, Congo‐Brazzaville, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda— are heavily affected by different religious aspects of violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Post Colonialism, and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa

206. Transition from Democracy Loss of Quality, Hybridisation and Breakdown of Democracy

Author:
Gero Erdmann
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The paper points out that there is hardly any research for the reverse transition, the transition from democracy to non-democratic regimes for more than 30 years. For heuristical purposes, it provides basic data of the decline of democracy, which refers to loss of democratic quality, changes from liberal democracy to hybrid and to authoritarian regimes, during the third wave of democratisation (1974-2008). The stocktaking shows that most of the cases of decline refer to the change in and from young democracies established during the third wave, especially after 1989. Loss of democratic quality and hybridization are the most frequent cases of decline, while the breakdown of democracy has been very rare. Young democracies and poorer countries are more prone to decline than the older and richer cases – aside from a few remarkable exceptions. Finally, the overview argues that the research on the decline of democracy can benefit from the richness of the approaches of transitology, but should also avoid its methodological traps and failures, concluding with a number of suggestions for the future research agenda.
Topic:
Democratization, Poverty, International Affairs, and Governance

207. Religiosity as a determinant of happiness

Author:
Erich Gundlach and Matthias Opfinger
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
We find a U-shaped relation between happiness and religiosity in cross-country panel data after controlling for income levels. At a given level of income, the same level of happiness can be reached with high and low levels of religiosity, but not with intermediate levels. A rise in income causes an increase in happiness along with a decline of religiosity. Our interpretation of the empirical results is that the indifference curves for religiosity and other commodities of the utility function are hump-shaped.
Topic:
Economics, Religion, Sociology, and Culture
Political Geography:
Albania

208. Ex oleo bellare? The Impact of Oil on the Outbreak of Militarized Interstate Disputes

Author:
Tim Wegenast and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
According to conventional wisdom, strategic natural resources like oil are harmful to international peace. Nonetheless, there is little empirical quantitative work on the link between resource abundance and interstate conflicts. Analyzing the impact of oil on militarized interstate disputes on a monadic level of analysis, this paper shows that oil in fact influences the conflict potential between countries. Results of logistic regressions suggest that a high absolute oil production is associated with an increased risk of dispute initiation. Per capita oil production, in contrast, does not seem to influence a country's propensity to start militarized conflicts. We also find that while very small oil-rich countries are more frequently the object of military actions, large oil producers seem to be generally spared from foreign attacks. We conclude that specific causal mechanisms such as an increased military capacity or the indulgence of the international community (rather than domestic political conditions inherent to the rentier state) might be particularly useful to explain our findings.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Oil, War, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia and Georgia

209. North Korea and the Politics of Visual Representation

Author:
Dirk Nabers and David Shim
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Within international discourses on security, North Korea is often associated with risk and danger, emanating paradoxically from what can be called its strengths—particularly military strength, as embodied by its missile and nuclear programs—and its weaknesses—such as its ever-present political, economic, and food crises—which are considered to be imminent threats to international peace and stability. We argue that images play an important role in these representations, and suggest that one should take into account the role of visual imagery in the way particular issues, actions, and events related to North Korea are approached and understood. Reflecting on the politics of visual representation means to examine the functions and effects of images, that is what they do and how they are put to work by allowing only particular kinds of seeing. After addressing theoretical and methodological questions, we discuss individual (and serial) photographs depicting what we think are typical examples of how North Korea is portrayed in the Western media and imagined in international politics.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Israel and North Korea

210. It's Not Only Rents: Explaining the Persistence and Change of Neopatrimonialism in Indonesia

Author:
Nina Korte
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Indonesia has long been associated with neopatrimonialism, corruption, collusion, and nepotism as the main modi operandi of politics, economics and public administration. Despite various measures and initiatives to fight these practises, little evidence for a significant decline can be found over the years. Rather, longitudinal analysis points to changes in the character of neopatrimonialism. Based on more than 60 in-depth interviews, focus-group discussions, and the analysis of both primary and secondary data, the aim of this article is, first, to describe the changes that have taken place, and, second, to investigate what accounts for these changes. Political economy concepts posit the amount and development of economic rents as the explanatory factor for the persistence and change of neopatrimonialism. This study's findings, however, indicate that rents alone cannot explain what has taken place in Indonesia. Democratisation and decentralisation exert a stronger impact.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Economics, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

211. Do Religious Factors Impact Armed Conflict? Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Matthias Basedau, Tim Wegenast, Johannes Vüllers, and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Theoretically, the “mobilization hypothesis” establishes a link between religion and conflict by arguing that religious structures such as overlapping ethnic and religious identities are prone to mobilization; once politicized, escalation to violent conflict becomes likelier. Yet, despite the religious diversity in sub-Saharan Africa and the religious overtones in a number of African armed conflicts, this assumption has not yet been backed by systematic empirical research on the religion–conflict nexus in the region. The following questions thus remain: Do religious factors significantly impact the onset of (religious) armed conflict? If so, do they follow the logic of the mobilization hypothesis and, if yes, in which way? To answer these questions, this paper draws on a unique data inventory of all sub-Saharan countries for the period 1990–2008, particularly including data on mobilization-prone religious structures (e.g. demographic changes, parallel ethno-religious identities) as well as religious factors indicating actual politicization of religion (e.g. inter-religious tensions, religious discrimination, incitement by religious leaders). Based on logit regressions, results suggest that religion indeed plays a significant role in African armed conflicts. The findings are compatible with the mobilization hypothesis: Overlaps of religious and ethnic identities and religious dominance are conflict-prone; religious polarization is conflict-prone only if combined with religious discrimination and religious tensions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion

212. Managing Ethnic Conflict: The Menu of Institutional Engineering

Author:
Matthias Basedau
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The debate on institutional engineering offers options to manage ethnic and other conflicts. This contribution systematically assesses the logic of these institutional designs and the empirical evidence on their functioning. Generally, institutions can work on ethnic conflict by either accommodating (“consociationalists”) or denying (“integrationists”) ethnicity in politics. Looking at individual and combined institutions (e.g. state structure, electoral system, forms of government), the literature review finds that most designs are theoretically ambivalent and that empirical evidence on their effectiveness is mostly inconclusive. The following questions remain open: a) Is politicized ethnicity really a conflict risk? b) What impact does the whole “menu” (not just single institutions) have? and c) How are effects conditioned by the exact nature of conflict risks?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Governance

213. Negotiating Political Spaces: Social and Environmental Activism in the Chinese Countryside

Author:
Maria Bondes
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The proliferation of social organizations in China has engendered a lively debate about how to conceptualize these social forces. This paper argues that such a conceptualization should take into account the role that both the party-state and social actors attribute to social organizations. With an empirical case study from the western Chinese countryside, this paper explores how social organizations both adapt to the restrictive authoritarian framework and negotiate the spaces opening up to society in the realms of environmental and social politics. The study shows that while the party-state understands organizations as consultants and partners in service provision, they have a deviating self-image from the Western concepts of “NGO” and “civil society” that are becoming increasingly relevant as frames of reference. While their practices remain within the limits imposed by the authoritarian framework, they impact policy formulation, local political participation, and the formation of social networks according to their own self-image as members of a budding Chinese civil society.
Topic:
Civil Society, Environment, and Politics
Political Geography:
China

214. Who Drives Change? Comparing the Evolution of Domestic Climate Governance in India and South Africa

Author:
Babette Never
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper compares and contrasts the nature and scope of change in the domestic climate governance of India and South Africa between 2007 and 2010. It uses an actor-centered approach to analyze the drivers of change. An exploratory test of fit shows that the concept of "communities of practice" captures the trends and actor relations well for the South African case, while more simple networks could be identified in India. Using data from an expert survey and from semi-structured interviews, this paper finds that both countries have generally not yet surpassed the level of second-order change, or double-loop learning. Differences exist for more specific parts of climate governance. Three resulting hypotheses give conditions for the development of either communities of practice or of networks, as conceptualized in formal network analysis. They target (1) the number of participating actors, (2) the size of the scientific landscape and the degree of competition among scientists, and (3) the centrality of a governmental actor with a certain knowledge and attitude within a network.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Science and Technology, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, India, and South Africa

215. Revisiting the Resource–Conflict Link: A Systematic Comparative Test of Causal Mechanisms in Four Major Oil-Exporting Countries

Author:
Miriam Shabafrouz, Matthias Basedau, and Annegret Mähler
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Causal mechanisms and related contextual variables are crucial to the study of the resource–conflict link, but little systematic research has been done on their exact functioning. This paper contributes to the filling of this gap by comparing four major oil exporters (Algeria, Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela) with differing levels of internal violence. To capture the causal complexity of the resource–conflict link we created a questionnaire with some 150 variables that distinguish between resource-specific (RS) and non-resource specific (NRS) conditions. The causal mechanisms are measured by assigning pertinent RS and NRS indicators to them. Our results suggest that the role of resources may be less prominent than is widely assumed. Only three resource-related causal mechanisms provide limited explanatory value (motive at subnational level, indirect economic, and institutional mechanism) by distinguishing Venezuela—the most peaceful case—from all the others. Only a mixed mechanism that combines 13 RS and NRS (economic and geographic characteristics, identity, intergroup relations, as well as political and institutional variables, including elite behavior) conditions can explain the differences between the countries with regard to the dependent variable comprehensively.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Diplomacy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria

216. Burma's Transition to "Disciplined Democracy": Abdication or Institutionalization of Military Rule?

Author:
Marco Bünte
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Direct military rule has become rare in world politics. Today, most military regimes have either given way to some form of democracy or been transformed into another form of authoritarianism. This article formulates an analytical framework for the detachment of militaries from politics and identifies positive and negative factors for a withdrawal. It then applies this framework to the case of Burma/Myanmar, which is an example of deeply entrenched military rule. It is argued that the retreat from direct rule has brought with it a further institutionalization of military rule in politics, since the military was able to safeguard its interests and design the new electoral authoritarian regime according to its own purposes. The article identifies the internal dynamics within the military regime as a prime motive for a reform of the military regime. Although the external environment has completely changed over the last two decades, this had only a minor impact on military politics. The opposition could not profit from the regime's factionalization and external sanctions and pressure have been undermined by Asian engagement.
Topic:
Democratization and Governance
Political Geography:
South Asia and Myanmar

217. Modeling Electoral Coordination: Voters, Parties and Legislative Lists in Uruguay

Author:
Ines Levin and Gabriel Katz
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
During each electoral period, the strategic interaction between voters and political elites determines the number of viable candidates in a district. In this paper, we implement a hierarchical seemingly unrelated regression model to explain electoral coordination at the district level in Uruguay as a function of district magnitude, previous electoral outcomes and electoral regime. Elections in this country are particularly useful to test for institutional effects on the coordination process due to the large variations in district magnitude, to the simultaneity of presidential and legislative races held under different rules, and to the reforms implemented during the period under consideration. We find that district magnitude and electoral history heuristics have substantial effects on the number of competing and voted-for parties and lists. Our modeling approach uncovers important interaction-effects between the demand and supply side of the political market that were often overlooked in previous research.
Political Geography:
Uruguay

218. Ruling Against the Executive in Amparo Cases: Evidence from the Peruvian Constitutional Tribunal

Author:
Lydia Brashear Tiede and Aldo Fernando Ponce
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In this paper, we systematically analyze decisions made by the Peruvian Constitutional Tribunal from 1996 to 2006 in amparo cases, which significantly impact individual rights. We ask the following question: in these types of cases, what conditions led the Tribunal to assert itself against the executive? Through an analysis of Tribunal decisions during the presidencies of Alberto Fujimori and Alejandro Toledo, we find that the Tribunal is more likely to rule against the executive, as the public's confidence in the executive decreases and as the share of congressional seats of the president's party declines. Further, the Tribunal is more willing to decide cases against the executive in areas that most pervade its docket, specifically in the areas of pensions and employment. These findings add to the comparative and American judicial politics literature by showing that high courts, even relatively weak ones, follow politics, but that case subject area and prevalence may temper this tendency.
Political Geography:
Peru

219. Political Appointments and Coalition Management in Brazil, 2007-2010

Author:
Sérgio Praça, Andréa Freitas, and Bruno Hoepers
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Studies on coalition management in presidential systems usually focus on two types of goods used by the president and formateur party to hold together coalitions: exchange goods (such as individual budget amendments) and coalition goods (such as ministries). This research notes analyzes, with an original dataset of party members and political appointees in Brazil, a different type of good: presidential political appointments. Our study shows that partisan political appointees vary greatly among Brazilian ministries and within them. We also found that there is a disconnect between how many seats a political party holds in Congress and the number of political appointment offices it controls. This has implications for the literature on bureaucracy and politics and the literature on coalition management.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Brazil

220. Fighting for a Kingdom of God? The Role of Religion in the Ivorian Crisis

Author:
Johannes Vüllers
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the role of religion with regard to the violence experienced during the past 20 years in Côte d'Ivoire. It seeks to explain the differences in the level of violence over time by focusing on religion as an identity marker and as a social force that is mobilizable by religious and political actors. Religious identities were part of the growing in-/ out-group mechanism utilized in Côte d'Ivoire in the 1990s, while the political elites tried to politicize religion. In reaction to the violence and politicization, the religious elites founded an interreligious organization in the 1990s, and were successful in preventing a religious war.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Africa