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22. Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Old Debates, New Challenges
- Author:
- James A. Haley
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Ten years ago, in the wake of the Asian financial crisis and subsequent Argentine default, the international community debated how to best promote the timely, effective restructuring of sovereign debt. The debate then focused largely on the relative merits of a so-called statutory approach for sovereign restructurings, with features of domestic bankruptcy regimes, versus the voluntary use of contractual terms designed to facilitate restructurings. At the time, the statutory approach did not have the support necessary to move from proposal to policy and efforts to improve the framework of sovereign debt restructuring rested on the contractual approach.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Asia
23. Reforming Finance: Macro and Micro Perspectives
- Author:
- Pierre Siklos
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Reforms of the financial system in the wake of the global financial crisis are incomplete. Beyond reforms, good judgment is essential in a crisis. Short-termism in finance cannot be completely controlled by regulation and supervision. Financial crises are inevitable but need not be as virulent at the global financial crisis. Central banks will have to rethink their policies and how they interact with other agencies partially responsible for maintaining financial system stability.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Europe
24. The IMF's Preferred Creditor Status: Does It Still Make Sense After the Euro Crisis?
- Author:
- Susan Schadler
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Throughout the history of IMF lending, the institution has had PCS — that is, distressed countries borrowing from the IMF are expected to give priority to meeting their obligations to the IMF over those to other (private or official) creditors. This status is a defining characteristic of the IMF's role in financial crises: it provides a high degree of confidence that IMF resources are safe even when other creditors of the distressed country face substantial uncertainty about whether they will be repaid in full. In other words, the IMF, which lends to some of the riskiest countries in the world, faces minimal risk that its resources could be compromised by a debtor country's difficulties in servicing its debt. It does so, however, with the confidence that comes from its role in helping to formulate and monitor a program of policies that are strongly expected to return the country to stability.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
25. A Failure to Cooperate? Raising the Risks and Challenges of Exiting Unconventional Monetary Policies
- Author:
- Domenico Lombardi, Pierre Siklos, and Samantha St. Amand
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Central banks (and policy makers more generally) should seek a global consensus before implementing policies that may have global repercussions. The global economy can only become more resilient to shocks when there is greater central bank cooperation. The G20 is a natural venue to promote cooperation and to help the global economy return to stronger economic growth, but other forums may also be appropriate. The maintenance of financial stability is a common resource and should be treated as such. Excessive reliance on sovereignty is counterproductive and contains the seeds of the next crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
26. Development: Advancement through International Organizations
- Author:
- Rohinton Medhora and David Malone
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The familiar world of international organizations principally devoted to development has been upended by two phenomena. First is the emergence of sustained economic success in the developing world (mostly in Asia, but increasingly also in Africa and, in a less spectacular way, Latin America) amid compelling, continuing need among the world's poor. Second, the slow-moving, serious financial and economic crisis of the industrialized world since 2008 has reordered priorities in many of their capitals toward domestic spending and away from costly international projects.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Asia, United Nations, and Latin America
27. The Sovereign Debt Forum: Expanding Our Tool Kit for Handling Sovereign Crises
- Author:
- Richard Gitlin and Brett House
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- A sovereign debt forum (SDF) would assist in facilitating more predictable, transparent and timely treatments of sovereign crises during future episodes of debt-servicing difficulties. An SDF would provide a non-statutory, neutral standing body to identify lessons from past episodes of sovereign distress, maintain information on sovereign debt and convene stakeholders to engage in confidential discussions at the outset of a sovereign crisis. The SDF proposal takes inspiration from existing precedents, such as the Paris Club and Vienna Initiative, which demonstrate that informal, rules-based representative entities have a long-standing history of organizing effective workouts for distressed countries An SDF would have a limited remit: to enable early, discreet consultation and information sharing between distressed sovereigns and their creditors to speed the process by which a sovereign is returned to solvency, stability and growth. An SDF would not supersede existing institutions and would rely on close collaboration with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). An SDF would complement other proposals for automatic maturity extensions on securitized debt, arbitration and mediation processes, voluntary standstills and improved aggregation in collective action clauses (CACs). The SDF and other incremental, pragmatic proposals to improve sovereign crisis management should be put at the core of the G20 agenda on an ongoing basis.
- Topic:
- Economics, Financial Crisis, and Governance
28. Unsustainable Debt and the Political Economy of Lending: Constraining the IMF's Role in Sovereign Debt Crises
- Author:
- Susan Schadler
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The timely resolution of severe debt crises has long been one of the most difficult challenges for global financial cooperation. Focussing on the case of Greece, this paper examines how the euro crisis precipitated large International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans that violated the framework developed on the basis of the preceding decade to prevent a costly delay in restructuring. The paper reveals that safeguards meant to prevent the IMF from providing support for crisis countries without a reasonably clear path to debt sustainability failed. In fact, changes made in the context of the euro crisis to the IMF's framework for lending in severe sovereign debt crises will weaken the IMF's effectiveness in future crises. The paper concludes with four suggestions for how to re-establish an adequate framework for IMF intervention in severe debt crises in the future.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Monetary Fund, and Financial Crisis
29. ARBITERS AMISS: THE FAILINGS AND SHORTCOMINGS OF INSTITUTIONS GOVERNING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM
- Author:
- Paul Blustein
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Myriad dangers beset the global economy. The US Federal Reserve is trying to curb its ultra-easy money policy, a delicate operation that could plunge the world into recession if done too abruptly. The euro zone might fall back into turmoil. Japan's experiment with “Abenomics”1 could go sour. China's banking system looks shaky. Emerging economies are suffering large scale withdrawals of foreign funds.
- Topic:
- Debt, Development, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China
30. A Markov Switching Approach to Herding
- Author:
- Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Arne C. Klein
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Existing models of market herding suffer from several drawbacks. Measures that assume herd behaviour is constant over time or independent of the economy are not only economically unreasonable, but describe the data poorly. First, if returns are stationary, then a two-regime model is required to describe the data. Second, existing models of time-varying herding cannot be estimated from daily or weekly data, and are unable to accommodate factors that explain changes in this behaviour. To overcome these deficiencies, this paper proposes a Markov switching herding model. By means of time-varying transition probabilities, the model is able to link variations in herding behaviour to proxies for sentiment or the macroeconomic environment. The evidence for the US stock market reveals that during periods of high volatility, investors disproportionately rely on fundamentals rather than on market consensus.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Canada
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