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1. Understanding Digital Intelligence and the Norms That Might Govern It

Author:
David Omand
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper describes the nature of digital intelligence and provides context for the material published as a result of the actions of National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden. Digital intelligence is presented as enabled by the opportunities of global communications and private sector innovation and as growing in response to changing demands from government and law enforcement, in part mediated through legal, parliamentary and executive regulation. A common set of organizational and ethical norms based on human rights considerations are suggested to govern such modern intelligence activity (both domestic and external) using a three-layer model of security activity on the Internet: securing the use of the Internet for everyday economic and social life; the activity of law enforcement — both nationally and through international agreements — attempting to manage criminal threats exploiting the Internet; and the work of secret intelligence and security agencies using the Internet to gain information on their targets, including in support of law enforcement.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

2. Ukraine: Stress at the IMF

Author:
Susan Schadler
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In April 2014, in a departure from its normal aversion to lending to countries in conflict, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a US$17 billion loan to Ukraine to be disbursed over two years. At the time, Ukraine was three weeks away from a presidential election; engaged in combat with an armed separatist movement backed by Russia, its largest trading partner and supplier of energy; and experiencing a significant drain in foreign exchange reserves and bank deposits along with soaring yields on sovereign debt. The country was also reaping the returns of decades of economic mismanagement. Dire from both political and economic perspectives, the situation had the markings of a case where the IMF has the expertise to be usefully engaged, but there were also red flags demarcating circumstances that can hobble the IMF's effectiveness.
Topic:
Economics, International Monetary Fund, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

3. The 2014 Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

Author:
Domenico Lombardi, Barry Carin, and David Kempthorne
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The annual CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance assesses progress in four dimensions of international economic governance: macroeconomic and financial cooperation; cooperation on financial regulation; cooperation on trade; and cooperation on climate change. Governance related to these dimensions is scored on the following progress scale: 0%-19% represents "major regression"; 20%-39% represents "some regression"; 40%-59% indicates "minimal progress"; 60%-79% characterizes progress; and 80%-100% represents "major progress." Recognizing the difficulty of making objective judgments given the complexity of the issues, the results are offered as a range of subjective opinions from CIGI experts with diverse backgrounds.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

4. The Role of International Trade in the Rise of the New Zealand Dairy Industry from Its Beginnings to the Fonterra Era

Author:
Bruce Muirhead
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Since its widespread settlement by Europeans in the 1840s, New Zealand (NZ) has been an agricultural economy. As has been pointed out “there [has been] no serious challenge to the fundamental precept that the country's economy rested on an agricultural foundation” (Macdonald and Thomson 1987, 231), and dairy has been a significant focus of that base. Dairy production was introduced to New Zealand with the clear intent to establish New Zealand as an adjunct to the economic needs of Britain (Hawke 1985). Indeed, the closeness of the relationship between “the Britain of the south” and the metropolitan centre is one of the fundamental characteristics of any environmental history of NZ agriculture (Pawson 2008). This would persist in a material sense for more than a century, until the United Kingdom joined the European Community (EC) in 1973.
Topic:
Economics and Food
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and New Zealand

5. Transatlantic Economic Agreements: Parsing CETA and TTIP

Author:
Patricia M. Goff
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In October 2013, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced that the Government of Canada had reached a "political agreement" with the European Union on the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). The timing of Mr. Harper's statement was not coincidental. Evidence suggests that talks between Canada and the European Union are actually continuing several months after his announcement, if only on technical elements. Nonetheless, it seems the Government of Canada wanted to signal that a successful end to Canada-EU talks was in sight, just as talks between the United States and the European Union were getting under way towards the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The Canadian government did not want to risk a redirection of European energies away from the Canadian negotiation toward their American counterparts.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Canada

6. What Drove the Mid-2000s' Explosiveness in Alternative Energy Stock Prices? Evidence from US, European and Global Indices

Author:
Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Philipp Kaufmann
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Soaring prices in European alternative energy stocks and their subsequent tumble have attracted attention from both investors and academics. This paper extends recent research to an international setting and analyzes whether the explosive price behaviour of the mid-2000s was driven by rising crude oil prices and an overall bullish market sentiment. Inflation-adjusted US alternative energy stock prices do not exhibit signs of explosiveness. By contrast, we find strong evidence of explosive price behaviour for European and global sector indices, even after controlling for a set of explanatory variables. Interestingly, while the sector indices plunged with the outbreak of the global financial crisis, idiosyncratic components continued to rise and did not start to decline until after world equity markets had already begun to recover in 2009. This finding suggests a substantial revaluation of alternative energy stock prices in light of intensifying sector competition and shrinking sales margins, and casts some doubts on the existence of a speculative bubble. Nevertheless, this paper observes temporary episodes of explosiveness between 2005 and 2007 followed by rapid collapses, indicating the presence of some irrational exuberance among investors.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

7. Reforming Finance: Macro and Micro Perspectives

Author:
Pierre Siklos
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Reforms of the financial system in the wake of the global financial crisis are incomplete. Beyond reforms, good judgment is essential in a crisis. Short-termism in finance cannot be completely controlled by regulation and supervision. Financial crises are inevitable but need not be as virulent at the global financial crisis. Central banks will have to rethink their policies and how they interact with other agencies partially responsible for maintaining financial system stability.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe

8. The IMF's Preferred Creditor Status: Does It Still Make Sense After the Euro Crisis?

Author:
Susan Schadler
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Throughout the history of IMF lending, the institution has had PCS — that is, distressed countries borrowing from the IMF are expected to give priority to meeting their obligations to the IMF over those to other (private or official) creditors. This status is a defining characteristic of the IMF's role in financial crises: it provides a high degree of confidence that IMF resources are safe even when other creditors of the distressed country face substantial uncertainty about whether they will be repaid in full. In other words, the IMF, which lends to some of the riskiest countries in the world, faces minimal risk that its resources could be compromised by a debtor country's difficulties in servicing its debt. It does so, however, with the confidence that comes from its role in helping to formulate and monitor a program of policies that are strongly expected to return the country to stability.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

9. Sovereign Debtors in Distress: Are Our Institutions Up to the Challenge?

Author:
Susan Schadler
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Global economic developments over the past two years have dashed hopes that the risks of sovereign debt crises have been tamed. The turmoil in Europe has, of course, been the most acute of these developments, but growing national fiscal imbalances, anemic prospects for growth and the expanding reach of private financial markets to newly emerging economies are potent, if less immediately threatening, signs of the risks ahead. After lying dormant for almost a decade, pressing questions about whether global institutions are capable of containing the costs of debt crises are again being raised.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Globalization, Political Economy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

10. From Bretton Woods to the Euro: How Policy-Maker Overreach Fosters Economic Crises

Author:
Pierre Siklos
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper considers the relevance of the Bretton Woods system for the prospects of reform of the international monetary system and in the context of the ongoing euro area financial crisis. It explores the challenges that must be met in attempting to reform the present international monetary system and euro area policies. After considering what resonates, and what does not, from the Bretton Woods regime of fixed exchange rates, it examines some of the key lessons from that era. The paper concludes that policy makers at Bretton Woods promised too much in terms of the stability and durability of the policy regime, and did not give sufficient thought to how the arrangement devised in the 1940s would actually function. They failed to instill the logic of collective action among their members. In particular, the Bretton Woods system failed because the agreement paid virtually no attention to governance issues. Finally, in terms of the current situation in the euro zone, policy makers have failed to recognize that the problems are not purely economic; domestic political considerations are important too. A political-economy approach is required for the design of new international monetary arrangements. The same principles apply today when we contemplate the survival of the euro zone. Politicians need to be more realistic and less ambitious, lest they create the preconditions for the next global crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe