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1. The World’s Humanitarian, Economic, and Political Engagement with Afghanistan

Author:
Paul Fishstein and Aman Farahi
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The August 2021 fall of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and its replacement by the Taliban ended a two decade chapter of economic and social development. On top of an already weak economy reeling from COVID-19 and a multi-year drought, the overnight cutoff of most Western aid, freezing of foreign reserve funds, and effective severing of Afghanistan’s links with the global financial system plunged Afghanistan into multiple and overlapping humanitarian, economic, financial, and political crises of almost incomprehensible proportions. As of December 2021, 98 percent of the population lacked sufficient food and 90 percent were projected to be living in poverty. By summer 2022, the economy had shrunk by 20-30 percent. Afghanistan faces a daunting array of immediate security, humanitarian, and long-term development challenges. The Taliban’s restrictive social policies and refusal to move towards an inclusive government and the charged political environment dictates much of what can or cannot be done by the international community. The West’s central challenge is at once both moral and political: trying to walk a fine line between delivering humanitarian and economic assistance to relieve some of the effects of sanctions and isolation and help the Afghan people, while avoiding even the appearance of endorsing or legitimizing the Taliban. Workarounds so far have included re-purposing the World Bank-administered Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund, previously the main vehicle for funding Afghan government operations, to channel funding through United Nations (UN) agencies to non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to provide feeding, health, education, and other services. This paper highlights the significant challenges for the international community, among them: Relationship management Working with or alongside the Taliban Who performs the functions of the state? Channeling support away from the DFA and directly through the UN and NGOs can be effective for certain types of services (e.g., health, education), but this has its limits. International community cohesion, coherence, and capacity Finally, the authors highlight a number of recommendations, divided roughly into policy and operational considerations, for how, if not to resolve the impasse, to at least mitigate or get around it. These 14 recommendations assume that regardless of the Taliban’s distasteful policies and moral and technical shortcomings, the collapse of their rule would not be in anyone’s interest. There is no one to replace them, and the chaos and fragmentation that would follow would be far worse.
Topic:
Taliban, Afghanistan, Economy, Engagement, Humanitarian Crisis, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and Global Focus

2. An Age of Crises: Prospects for inequality and division

Author:
Roshni Menon
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Inequalities can shape, drive, and amplify crises and at the same time, be the consequence of crises. The double shock of the COVID-19 pandemic followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been accompanied by an uptick in income and social inequalities. Moreover, a world enveloped in a series of crises has become the grim backdrop for many of the current discourses on how to solve salient world problems. The complexity and force of how each individual crisis overlaps and interacts with, and sometimes worsens the impact of other crises—including rising levels of inequality and exclusion—is profound and damaging, requiring careful analysis of both consequences and solutions. For instance, surging inflation rates, which began in 2021, as well as the food and energy crises set off largely by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have precipitated and worsened the debt crisis in many lower income countries. Combined with the existential threat of climate change and related and prevalent extreme climate events, a perfect and potent storm of events have been set in motion: even if aspects of today’s cost-of-living crisis wane, their ripple effects will continue to reverberate, in some instances setting off political instability and social unrest in parts of the world. The lessons learned from these crises, and their interaction with inequality and exclusion will be critical to better prepare for the future, and to break the deadly spiral of crises and rising inequality. While disasters—both those created by people and generated by nature—have increasingly become a daily reality for many in different parts of the world, policies at the global, regional, and national levels, have yet to catch up with this new reality. Looking across six areas—food and fuel shortages, inflation, debt distress, extreme climate-related events, and political unrest—there are very few countries that escape the reach of at least one crisis. However, more alarmingly, many countries are exposed to multiple and compounding levels of economic, social, and environmental shock; which can intersect with underlying inequalities and vulnerabilities such that a vicious cycle of income inequality, increasing social stratification, and discontent spreads across societies and generations. New research from the Pathfinders team shows that in those countries for which complete data exists across six crises (90 in total), eight countries are at risk for being impacted by all crises at the same time. 72 out of these 90 countries (or 80 percent) are at high or moderate risk of suffering from at least three crises at the same time. If we limit the analysis to five crises (food price shock, inflation, extreme climate events, debt distress, and protests), 10 out of the 134 countries with complete data are at high or moderate risk of suffering from all five crises and 86 countries (65 percent) from at least three crises. This number may even be an underestimate as typically lower income countries have less capacity to collect data and tend to deal with multiple crises arising from debt and cost-of-living issues. In response to these multiple crises (or polycrisis), urgent, integrated, and coordinated policy interventions are needed, including even greater cooperation and commitment at the global level. Without a sharp change of course, a renewed recommitment to multilateralism and bolder action to address root causes, there will be little change for the better. There is an opportunity for committed countries to advocate for sustained and urgent action to respond to the immediate humanitarian needs of a great majority of the world’s population. Policy solutions can be geared towards the shorter and longer terms: The first includes an urgent set of instruments aimed at reducing suffering as soon as possible and a second set focused on achieving longer-term structural transformation to reduce vulnerability and promote sustainability.
Topic:
Inequality, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. From Rhetoric to Action: Delivering Inequality & Exclusion

Author:
Center on International Cooperation
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Inequality and exclusion are not destiny. Change is possible. Following three years of research, country visits, expert meetings, and debate, the Pathfinders’ Grand Challenge on Inequality and Exclusion has identified policy priorities for immediate and longer-term actions to tackle inequality and exclusion. The report draws on the lived experiences and desires of people across countries around the world. To understand citizens’ concerns about inequalities, their policy priorities, and their desire for change, we commissioned a public opinion survey in eight countries: Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, Sierra Leone, South Korea, Sweden, Tunisia, and Uruguay. These opinion surveys show an immense preoccupation with societal divisions and a consensus that more needs to be done to address them. What is working to make progress on equality and inclusion? Countries and local communities that have made sustained progress towards more inclusive and equal societies have generally taken a three-pronged approach: They have delivered visible results that make a material difference in people’s daily lives, in areas such as social protection, housing and wages; they have built solidarity, through for example truth-telling exercises, police and justice reform and community empowerment; and they have secured credibility and sought to avert reversals by fighting corruption, broadening political power, and increasing the public financing needed for policy development.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Inequality, Survey, and Exclusion
Political Geography:
Canada, South Korea, Uruguay, Sierra Leone, Sweden, Mexico, Tunisia, Costa Rica, and Global Focus

4. What Works in Conflict Prevention?

Author:
David Steven and Gizem Sucoglu
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This paper compares examples of collaborations that have aimed to prevent violence and conflict. The focus is primarily on ‘at risk’ and ‘acute’ settings, but with a recognition of the need to access a broader range of universal approaches to prevention where possible.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Diplomacy, and Collaboration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. The Number of Countries with Coups d’etats and Other Constitutional Changes in Government is Rising: How should donors stay engaged?

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Renata Dwan, Betty N. Wainaina, and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Last week, CIC released a major new joint report with Chatham House on aid to “politically-estranged” settings – countries where donor relations with national authorities are frayed or broken because of unconstitutional changes in government, internationally contested elections, and major sanctions. Development aid to these countries has been suspended or severely curtailed, often because of domestic pressures to disengage, leaving the problem to traditional humanitarian approaches. In this report, CIC and Chatham House argue that development engagement is needed, and outline the ways to do so without legitimizing unconstitutional regimes, in concertation with regional actors. This piece focuses on two major areas: Why should donors care in this current moment? What has been new in our thinking about the major challenges and solutions for how to work in these contexts?
Topic:
Government, Constitution, Multilateralism, Coup, and Donors
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Alternative Aid Modalities: Community development

Author:
Scott Guggenheim and Charles Petrie
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Economic sanctions and restrictions on development aid in fragile and conflict-affected states have become an increasingly prominent part of the international toolkit for dealing with regimes that violate international norms and rules or are beset by conflict. However, there is a well-known problem: sanctions and cessations of development aid often end up hurting the poor more than the rich, particularly the political elites who the sanctions are most meant to target. Donors try to limit the impact of sanctions on the poor through humanitarian assistance, usually run by United Nations (UN) agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). However, in all but the smallest countries, this is extremely expensive as well as a major organizational and logistical challenge. Most recently, situations such as those in Myanmar and Afghanistan have thrown the spotlight on the complexity of the discussion. In a world of no first-best solutions, a close look at empirical experience will show (provided certain pre-conditions can be met) that donors can partially bridge the challenge of simultaneously upholding human rights values and protecting the poorest from the economic fallout caused by sanctions. These solutions require close attention to unpacking complex environments and using a difficult-to-wield set of tools spread over diplomacy, economic power, and development aid. While not all risks can be eliminated, a variety of flexible tools already exists so that donors can help the poor in sanctioned and conflict-affected countries without undermining diplomatic goals of shunning the government elites or inadvertently financing insurgencies. With a growing number of donor-funded community programs in fragile or conflict-affected states, there are also donor concerns about legitimating national authorities, risks of financial diversion, and capture by armed combatants or local elites (full list of major concerns listed below). This paper highlights and addresses these concerns in detail and offers a series of recommendations, which in addition to good donor program design and management could mitigate some of the risks (but not fully eliminate them). This paper aims to present a case on how to use one tool—community-based approaches for delivering and monitoring aid—in fragile or sanctioned contexts, as community-based local governance type development models have been used successfully in a variety of fragile, conflict, and sanctioned countries. Additionally, this paper will extract real-world illustrations of how these approaches can address donor concerns on providing post-humanitarian aid to poor people without unintentionally undermining sanctions on illegitimate regimes. Because the case literature on delivering aid under sanctions is small, the brief includes illustrations taken from aid delivery in conflict-affected countries, where governments may not be under sanction, but deep concerns remain about aid capture or aid further fueling conflict. Finally, in addition to selections from the literature, the report draws from the personal and professional experiences of the two authors, who have overseen or managed large-scale community-type humanitarian, peacebuilding, and development programs in Afghanistan, Burundi, East Timor, Gaza, Indonesia (including Aceh and West Papua), Myanmar, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, and Syria, and have been part of discussions over development options for countries under sanction in Ethiopia and Sudan. In this paper, authors propose ten recommendations for donors coming out of this research on how they can incorporate community-driven approaches for aid in sanctioned and fragile states situations.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Sanctions, and Community
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Global Focus

7. Managing Opportunities, Challenges, and Expectations for the New Agenda for Peace

Author:
Eugene Chen, Sarah Cliffe, Daniel Friedman, Bojan Francuz, Céline Monnier, and Margaret Williams
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Amongst the many elements proposed in the secretary-general’s 2021 report Our Common Agenda was the call for a New Agenda for Peace because “the world is moving closer to the brink of instability, where the risks we face are no longer managed effectively through the systems we have.” The United Nations (UN) system was invited to develop a New Agenda for Peace as part of the preparations of the Summit of the Future, and the New Agenda will be the subject of one of 11 policy briefs to be issued in advance of the September 2023 preparatory ministerial meeting for the Summit of the Future. The forthcoming Secretariat policy brief will be informed by consultations with member states and other stakeholders. However, as the Pact for the Future will ultimately be a member state document, the issuance of the Secretariat policy brief will mark the initiation—not the culmination—of the intergovernmental deliberations on what will be included in the New Agenda for Peace to be agreed by member states during the Summit of the Future in September 2024. This piece provides a historical glance at past UN reforms, identifies the primary challenges and opportunities the UN and its member states face as they undergo this process, and looks forward to the key priorities that can be taken up from a realistic and practical perspective. Highlighted is how the New Agenda for Peace “provides a rare opportunity for the United Nations to examine and reflect upon the totality of the peace and security work of the Organization to uncover and better understand the synergies and contradictions of the existing processes and structures.”
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Reform, Peace, and Instability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Rising to the Challenge: Building Peaceful, Just, Equal and Inclusive Societies in a Divided World

Author:
David Andersson
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This report analyzes the global state of play of SDG16+ while identifying tangible, cross-cutting solutions to advance its targets of peace, justice, equality, and inclusion universally. With both an eye to the SDG Summit and set against a context of SDGs backsliding and a polycrisis, it lays out six strategic approaches by which SDG16+ can and has been advanced, drawing upon regional, national, and subnational examples. These approaches highlight efforts to rebuild trust and reduce polarization, with people-centered policies speaking lived daily realities; demonstrate the need to build evidence on SDG16+ interlinkages and their application in practice, with better data as a driver for innovative change; unpack participatory approaches, including the meaningful inclusion of civil society and subnational actors, and make clear the need for smarter SDG16+ financing. It concludes with opportunities for urgently needed advocacy, policy development, and collaboration on SDG16+ in the immediate and medium terms within UN and IFI contexts. This publication is designed to complement other recent SDG16+ community partner reports, with key messages reflecting both an HLPF Pathfinders Member States Statement (with Colombia and Switzerland), as well as the statement prepared by the Global SDG16+ Coalition, co-drafted by the Pathfinders Secretariat with other members of the Coalition.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Sustainable Development Goals, Equality, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. The UN General Assembly 2023: The urgency of compromise on financing for development

Author:
Natalie Briggs, Symphony Chau, Sarah Cliffe, Faiza Shaheen, and Betty N. Wainaina
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
New York will gear up this month to receive over 100 heads of state and government at the United Nations General Assembly. Behind the scenes, rising geopolitical tensions caused by structural competition, by the invasion of Ukraine and by the internationalization of other conflicts and coups d’etats (notably in West and Central Africa) will dominate. The world faces the prospect of more frequent interstate conflict and economic confrontation, which would have devastating consequences for international cooperation on socio-economic prosperity, conflict, and climate. We expect China, Russia, and Western countries to seek to build out their respective alliances—as previously analyzed, there have been moves from the West to make concessions to the Global South and a heating up of development competition between China and the West. In this CIC Perspective piece, authors examine the “state of play” at this year’s United Nations General Assembly (UNGA78), and discuss what success would look like at the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Summit taking place, along with how we can create the necessary means for action.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Seven Questions to Consider in Designing, Implementing, and Supporting Effective Nationally Led Violence Prevention Strategies

Author:
Céline Monnier
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The New Agenda for Peace (NAfP) calls for a shift to focus more attention on national prevention strategies, with a universal and more upstream approach to preventing all forms of violence. This is good news. By calling for all member states to create these strategies, the secretary-general is assuaging member states’ fears that prevention may be used to meddle into their internal affairs or that the need for prevention can be stigmatizing. Member states are now in the driver’s seat of this agenda. The upcoming Summit of the Future is an opportunity to establish a coherent vision for the role and the relevance of the UN in prevention—aligning approaches across different parts of the UN system—and to provide tailored-made packages and expertise for “member states seeking to establish or strengthen national infrastructures for peace,” as promised in the New Agenda for Peace. As the first in a new series of policy briefs on “Operationalizing the New Agenda for Peace,” this piece is a conversation starter on the conditions to consider in designing, implementing, and supporting effective nationally led violence prevention strategies and it calls on member states to lead on the development of an evidence-based framework for nationally led prevention strategies, and for experts, practitioners, and UN staff to feed into this discussion based on research and past experiences. This brief is based on research on violence and on violence prevention strategies—particularly crime prevention, prevention of violent extremism, and infrastructures for peace—and interviews of experts and practitioners.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Violent Extremism, Violence, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. Lessons from the COVID-19 Crisis: 6 Opportunities to Strengthen Conflict Sensitivity across the HumanitarianDevelopment-Peacebuilding Nexus

Author:
Céline Monnier and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic, and efforts to control its spread—including lockdowns, social distancing measures, and border closures—have led to unprecedented health, humanitarian, and socioeconomic shocks worldwide. These shocks, in turn, are raising the likelihood that risks for many forms of violent conflict—crime, armed conflict, violent extremism—may increase. It is crucial for the United Nations (UN) to adopt a conflict-sensitive lens in all relevant operations across the humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding (HDP) nexus to prevent an increasingly volatile situation from deteriorating further.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, Conflict, COVID-19, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Good Peacebuilding Financing: Recommendations for Revitalizing Commitments

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Paige Arthur, and Betty N. Wainaina
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
At a moment of intense global pressure due to the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, support for prevention and peacebuilding remains as vital as ever. This brief offers action-oriented recommendations to advance new and more inclusive approaches to peacebuilding financing on the eve of the UN High-level Meeting on Peacebuilding Financing.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Finance, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Innovations in Donor Bureaucracies and the Implications for Peacebuilding Financing

Author:
Ed Laws
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Donors face increasing pressure to do more with less, even in the most fragile contexts. This policy brief analyzes how organizational factors within governments create obstacles for good peacebuilding financing—and proposes options for overcoming them.
Topic:
Reform, Finance, Bureaucracy, Donors, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Global Focus

14. Can Emerging Technologies Lead a Revival of Conflict Early Warning/Early Action? Lessons from the Field

Author:
Branka Panic
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The early warning/early action (EWEA) community has been working for decades on analytics to help prevent conflict. The field has evolved significantly since its inception in the 1970s and 80s. The systems have served with variable success to predict conflict trends, alert communities to risk, inform decision makers, provide inputs to action strategies, and initiate a response to violent conflict. Present systems must now address the increasingly complex and protracted nature of conflicts in which factors previously considered peripheral have become core elements in conflict dynamics.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Conflict, Risk, and Early Warning
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Social Housing 2.0

Author:
Gianpaolo Baiocchi and H. Jacob Carlson
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The global housing crisis shows few signs of letting up. This report from Gianpaolo Baiocchi (Director of the Urban Democracy Lab, Professor of Individualized Studies and Sociology at NYU) and H. Jacob Carlson (postdoctoral research associate at S4 at Brown University) argues that the solutions can be found in "social housing." This report makes the case that social housing is desirable, viable, and achievable. The intractability of the global housing crisis requires new thinking and action, even if it draws on lessons that are quite old. As housing costs continue to skyrocket, policymakers and social movements have an opportunity to set their communities on a new path—one that guarantees a fundamental right to housing.
Topic:
Inequality, Crisis Management, and Housing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Refugee Legal Empowerment: From Accompaniment to Justice

Author:
Emily E. Arnold-Fernández
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This was a core finding of the Task Force on Justice’s 2019 Justice for All report. Two years into the global COVID-19 pandemic, that figure has likely risen. The global justice gap manifests in the lives of individuals in varied ways: 1.5 billion people had an unresolved justice problem, the Task Force found 4.5 billion people were excluded from the opportunities that law provides.
Topic:
Law, Refugees, Justice, Marginalization, and Empowerment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. Does Justice Mind? Understanding the Links between Justice and Mental Health

Author:
Pema Doornenbal
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Over the past two years, COVID-19 has deeply impacted mental health, both for individuals and entire communities, weakening trust between governments and people. This brief explores how justice systems and actors are interlinked with mental health and psychosocial wellbeing, and it makes the case for addressing the negative effects of these dynamics in a more systemized way.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Mental Health, COVID-19, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18. Addressing Inequality and Exclusion in the Pandemic’s Aftermath

Author:
Paul von Chamier
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
During the first quarter of 2022, signs continued to emerge that suggest the most acute stage of the pandemic is slowly drawing towards its end. COVID-19, a black-swan event that disrupted the world, brought into sharp focus systemic issues surrounding inequality and exclusion that well predated 2020. Societies that experienced deeper societal inequities before the crisis ended up being more vulnerable to both the infection spread and the related economic recession.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Inequality, COVID-19, and Exclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. The Relationship Between Justice and Equality

Author:
Sheelagh Stewart
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
At the heart of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is a vision of a “just, equitable, tolerant, open and socially inclusive world in which the needs of the most vulnerable are met.” This is a powerful vision. It is also part of a long history of global reform which seeks to make justice systems more inclusive. The first modern definition of the objective of law reform (now a century old) focuses on a government limited by law, equality under the law, and the protection of human and civil rights.
Topic:
United Nations, Sustainable Development Goals, Justice, and Equality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. Justice for All and the Social Contract in Peril

Author:
David Steven and Maaike de Langen
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The social and political dislocations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic threaten to break the social contract between states, communities, and people. Actions taken now — or a failure to make needed reforms — can have consequences that will be felt for decades. Justice is a critical sector in the relationship between states and people. Too often, justice systems have been responsible for fueling distrust and weakening this relationship. If justice actors are to play a central role in the recovery from the pandemic, helping their societies to rebuild in a fair, inclusive and sustainable way, people-centered justice is needed more than ever. This Pathfinders briefing, drafted by lead authors David Steven, Maaike de Langen, Sam Muller, and Mark Weston, together with more than 30 partners from around the world, publishes its third and final briefing on Justice in a Pandemic, a series examining the role of justice sectors in responding to the COVID-19 crisis. This briefing focuses on the role of justice in combating the negative social impacts of the pandemic.
Topic:
Justice, Recovery, Social Contract, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus