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1151. The Year of Enlargement

Author:
Simon Serfaty and Christina V. Balis
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Preparations for EU enlargement, combined with more of the unfolding debate on the constitutional future of Europe, will dominate Europe's institutional agenda in 2002. The three Baltic countries and all four countries in central Europe, plus Slovenia, Malta, and Cyprus should be able to conclude their bilateral access negotiations by December 2002, and even, in a few cases, on time for the European Council of June 21–22, in Seville, Spain. Expect, therefore, the enlargement of the EU to 25 members—one that might start as early as January 2004 and end, possibly, no later than June 30, 2007. What follows is a 17-step primer on the process and pattern, the various timetables, and the possible outcomes of an enlargement that will begin to emerge, at last, in 2002.
Topic:
NATO, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and France

1152. Assessing the Risks of Cyber Terrorism, Cyber War and Other Cyber Threats

Author:
James A. Lewis
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Cyber-warfare conjures up images of information warriors unleashing vicious attacks against an unsuspecting opponent's computer networks, wreaking havoc and paralyzing nations. This a frightening scenario, but how likely is it to occur? What would the effects of a cyber attack be on a potential opponent? Cyber attacks, network security and information pose complex problems that reach into new areas for national security and public policy. This paper looks at one set of issues – those related to cyber-terrorism and cyber attacks on critical infrastructure and their implications for national security. Cyber-terrorism is “the use of computer network tools to shut down critical national infrastructures (such as energy, transportation, government operations) or to coerce or intimidate a government or civilian population.” The premise of cyber terrorism is that as nations and critical infrastructure became more dependent on computer networks for their operation, new vulnerabilities are created – “a massive electronic Achilles' heel.” A hostile nation or group could exploit these vulnerabilities to penetrate a poorly secured computer network and disrupt or even shut down critical functions.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, and Terrorism

1153. Strengthening Law Enforcement Capabilities to Combat Terrorism

Author:
James A. Lewis
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Ten days after the terrorist strikes on New York and Washington, Attorney General John Ashcroft and Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Robert Mueller toured the smoldering rubble where the Twin Towers once had stood. “It's unspeakable,” the Attorney General kept repeating as he took in the horrible scene. Mueller walked with New York Governor George Pataki. “We'll get them,” he said.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
New York and Washington

1154. Saudi Military Forces Enter the 21st Century: The Saudi Air Force

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

1155. Saudi Military Forces Enter the 21 st Century: VI. Saudi Force Plans, Military Personnel, Military Expenditures, and Arms Transfers

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

1156. The New American Approach to Defense: The FY2003 Program Notes on Homeland Defense, Counterterrorism, Asymmetric Warfare, and Force Transformation

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The US is Redefining Security: Three major areas in which the US is redefining defense: Home land defense, Force Transformation, Nuclear Posture Review.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States

1157. The Global Nuclear Balance: A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Russia retains a significant strategic nuclear force capability, despite the decline in overall force size since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and despite apparent defense budgetary shortfalls and system aging. Russia also inherited sizeable biological and chemical warfare establishments from the FSU, and some components of these programs remain largely intact. Russian entities have exported various nuclear and ballistic missile technologies to states of proliferation concern, and Russia also remains a source for offensive biological and chemical warfare technologies and expertise.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

1158. Weapons of Mass Destruction in India and Pakistan

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
India continues its nuclear weapons development program, for which its underground nuclear tests in May 1998 were a significant milestone. The acquisition of foreign equipment will benefit New Delhi in its efforts to develop and produce more sophisticated nuclear weapons. During this reporting period, India continued to obtain foreign assistance for its civilian nuclear power program, primarily from Russia.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, South Asia, India, Asia, and New Delhi

1159. Saudi Military Forces Enter the 21st Century: IX. The Saudi Air Force

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21 st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

1160. Proliferation in the "Axis of Evil": North Korea, Iran, and Iraq

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Despite the June 2000 summit meeting and meetings between high level U.S. and North Korean officials on the one hand, and economic turmoil and continued food shortages on the other, we believe North Korea remains committed to maintaining strong military forces. These forces continue to be deployed close to the border with South Korea in an offensively oriented posture, and North Korea's NBC and missile programs likely remain key components of its overall security strategy. The most likely large- scale regional war scenario over the near term, which would involve the United States, would be on the Korean peninsula. In recent years, North Korea has continued to pose a complex security challenge to the United States and its allies. Prior to the 1994 Agreed Framework, North Korea is believed to have produced and diverted sufficient plutonium for at least one, and possibly two, nuclear weapons. In addition, although North Korea froze the production of plutonium in 1994, there are concerns that North Korea is continuing with some elements of a nuclear weapons program. North Korea also possesses stockpiles of chemical weapons, which could be used in the event of renewed hostilities on the peninsula. Research and development into biological agents and toxins suggest North Korea may have a biological weapons capability. North Korea has hundreds of ballistic missiles available for use against targets on the peninsula, some of which are capable of reaching tar-gets in Japan. Its missile capabilities are increasing at a steady pace, and it has progressed to producing medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). North Korea also has continued development of even longer-range missiles that would be able to threaten areas well beyond the region, including portions of the continental United States. As a result of U.S. diplomatic efforts, however, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has maintained a moratorium on launches of long-range missiles for over one year.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Korea

1161. The Asian Balance of Weapons of Mass Destruction A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Beijing continues to emerge as an increasingly active player in the region. Therefore, it is focused on becoming a world - class industrialized power through a countrywide modernization effort, which includes economic, technological, and military components of national power. Beijing already wields significant international influence by virtue of its permanent membership on the United Nations (UN) Security Council and its economic influence. China's public support for nonproliferation regimes is motivated by several factors, including a desire to enhance its image as a responsible world power and support for nonproliferation objectives.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, South Asia, Beijing, and Asia

1162. US and Russian Nuclear Forces and Arms Control After the US Nuclear Posture Review

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The reporting of START accountable warheads has led to serious confusion between START accountable warheads and actual warheads.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, and Asia

1163. Iraq's Military Capabilities: Fighting A Wounded, But Dangerous, Poisonous Snake

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
If we go to war with Iraq, we will go to war with forces that are the military equivalent of a wounded poisonous snake. They are weakened, but still dangerous, and they may lash out in ways that are truly dangerous. In broad terms, Iraq's forces have been in steadily decline ever since the beginning of the fighting in the Gulf War. They have been weakened by military defeat, by the impact of UN inspections, by wars of underfunding and by a decade without significant arms imports. At the same time, they are still the most powerful conventional forces in the Gulf, and Iraq may have some very unconventional weapons.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

1164. Biological War and the "Buffy Paradigm"

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The most important single message that anyone can communicate in regard to biological weapons is that we face a very uncertain mix of existing threats politics, commercial development, and technology will change constantly as far into the future as we can look. The issue is not what we know, but how little we know and how little we can predict.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

1165. Islamic Extremism in Saudi Arabia and the Attack on Al Khobar

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21 st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

1166. Defending America: Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Chemical weapons have not been used effectively in attacks on the American homeland. Reports that the bombers of the World Trade Center considered trying to add a chemical weapon like sodium cyanide to their explosives seem to be untrue, and led to an unsubstantiated assertion by the trial judge. There have, however, been a number of attempts to use chemical weapons by domestic extremists and individuals. For example, in 1997, members of the KKK plotted to place an improvised explosive device on a hydrogen sulfide tank at a refinery near Dallas, Texas. There is a well-established, low-level risk that such weapons will be used in the future, although there is no way to predict the frequency of such attacks, their scale, potential success, or lethality.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and America

1167. From B2B to G2G: Re-engineering the Canada-United States Relationship

Author:
Christopher Sands
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The new century is marked by a transformation in the economy that is changing the environment in which the United States makes policy regarding Canada, which is already a complex and diffuse process. First: what is new about the new economy? Second, how does the U.S. approach Canada in its policy processes. Third, how does Canada attempt to manage its relations with the United States? Fourth, how can business models help both countries to improve relations?
Topic:
Energy Policy and Environment
Political Geography:
United States, Germany, and North America

1168. Syria and Weapons of Mass Destruction

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Middle East is the scene of an ongoing process of proliferation. Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Libya, and Syria all have significant capabilities to deliver weapons of mass destruction Israel, and Syria has made considerable progress in acquiring weapons of mass destruction since the mid-1970s. Syria has never shown a serious interest in nuclear weapons, although it did seek to buy two small research reactors from the PRC in 1992, including a 24-megawatt reactor, and purchased a small 30-kilowatt research reactor from the PRC in 1991. It allowed inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency for the first time in February 1992. Syria does, however, deploy sheltered missiles, armed with chemical warheads, as a means of both countering Israel's nuclear forces and maintaining its rivalry with Iraq. As the attached article Syrian Defense Minister Gen. Mustafa Tlas shows, Syria has a major interest in biological warfare, and the fact his article first appeared in public in an Iranian journal may not entirely be a coincidence.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Syria, and Egypt

1169. Defending America: Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
There is a wide spectrum of potential threats to the American homeland that do not involve the threat of overt attacks by states using long-range missiles or conventional military forces. Such threats include covert attacks by state actors, state use of proxies, independent terrorist and extremist attacks by foreign groups or individuals, and independent terrorist and extremist attacks by residents of the US. These threats are currently limited in scope and frequency. No pattern of actual attacks on US territory has yet emerged that provides a clear basis for predicting how serious any given form of attack will be in the future, what means of attack will be used, or how lethal new forms of attack will be if they are successful.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and America

1170. Managing the Global Nuclear Materials Threat: Policy Recommendations

Author:
Sam Nunn and Robert E. Ebel
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Despite the end of the Cold War, nuclear weapons continue to pose the most devastating security threat to Americans. Although the risk of a nuclear war destroying civilization has virtually disappeared, the risk that a single nuclear weapon might be used to destroy a major city has increased, particularly given the erosion of control over nuclear material with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nothing could be more central to international security than ensuring that the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons do not fall into the hands of terrorists or proliferant states. Effective controls over nuclear warheads and the nuclear materials needed to make them are essential to the future of the entire global effort to reduce nuclear arms and stem their spread. At the same time, ensuring protection of public health and the environment in the management of all nuclear materials—from nuclear weapons to nuclear wastes—remains a critical priority. Appropriate management of both safety and security worldwide will be essential to maintaining nuclear fission as an expandable option for supplying the world's greenhouse-constrained energy needs in the twenty-first century.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Soviet Union

1171. Hong Kong Update: Fall 2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Ron Arculli, Steve Tsang, and Sunny Kai-sun Kwong
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Since the Hong Kong Update's first issue was published in September 1997, the purpose of the bulletin has been to gauge accurately the continuing evolution of Hong Kong by presenting a broad spectrum of views on developments in the new Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The Update has presented views from Washington, Hong Kong, and other areas of the world by inviting authors from both the U.S. Congress and Hong Kong SAR government; Washington and Hong Kong policy community; and U.S., Hong Kong, and international academics.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Hong Kong

1172. Hong Kong Update: Summer 2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Michael M.Y. Suen, and Eric Bjornlund
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Sir Winston Churchill once said, “At the bottom of all the tributes paid to democracy is the little man, walking into the little booth, with a little pencil, making a little cross on a little bit of paper—no amount of rhetoric or voluminous discussion can possibly diminish the overwhelming importance of the point.” Churchill's statement in 1944 underlines the determination of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government to encourage voters to turn out in record numbers for this September's Legislative Council ( LegCo) elections.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel and Hong Kong

1173. Hong Kong Update: Spring 2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Barry Mortimer, Byron Weng, and James C. Hsiung
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Last year was a momentous time for Hong Kong's new mini- constitution, the Basic Law. The history is too well known to detail here. In brief, the Court of Final Appeal (CFA) decided the right of abode cases (Ng Ka Ling and Chan Kam Nga). Later, the Hong Kong government sought and obtained a “clarification” of the judgment and the chief executive applied to the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress (NPC) for a further interpretation of the sections interpreted by the CFA (particularly Article 24(2)(3) of the Basic Law). The decision of the CFA stood, but for the future the Standing Committee provided the interpretation contended for by the Hong Kong government. (Should it be thought that the new interpretation was entirely arbitrary it accorded with the one earlier found to be the true interpretation by the Court of Appeal.) Many lawyers, commentators, politicians, and academics alleged that, in consequence, rule of law had been damaged and even that the independence of the judiciary had been diminished. Now that the dust has settled, the time has come to assess calmly the main issues that caused the controversy and see where we now stand.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel and Hong Kong

1174. Hong Kong Update: Winter 1999-2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Lee Kuan Yew, George Hui, and Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
During my yearly visits to Hong Kong over the last thirty years, I was struck by the upbeat, can-do spirit of its people. However troublesome the situation, such as the noisy demonstrations of the imitators of the Red Guards in 1966 and 1967, or the economic downturn caused by the sudden quadrupling of oil prices in 1973, Hong Kong people were not dismayed or despondent. So when I spent a few days in Hong Kong at the beginning of June this year, I was surprised by its completely different mood. The people I met seemed frustrated at finding themselves in a situation where the solutions were not obvious. Much of the present malaise in Hong Kong arises from the problems of a transition that proved more difficult than expected. In part it was because of the five years of the last governor's policies, aggravated by the Asian financial crisis. Until the territory has come through this transition phase it is not possible to make any long-term forecasts on Hong Kong's future.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel and Hong Kong

1175. Disposing of Weapons-Grade Plutonium

Author:
Robert E. Ebel and John Taylor
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This panel report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies considers an issue of critical importance to U.S. national security interests: Is the United States now pursuing a well-conceived and effective program of working with Russia to dispose of the vast amounts of separated plutonium that have become excess to the nuclear weapons needs of the two countries?
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia and United States