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2. A Turning Point, or Not? Principles for a New European Order
- Author:
- Richard Youngs
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Despite repeated declarations of historic turning points, deep structural reforms to the European project remain elusive. While defense spending rises are welcome, EU governments must also pursue systemic changes to Europe’s political and security architecture.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Politics, Reform, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3. The Fight Over Gender Equality in South Korea
- Author:
- Cecilia Hyunjung Mo and Soosun You
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- As more South Korean men perceive marriage as unattainable, their politics disfavor gender equality and reinforce sexism. These attitudes likely make marriage less appealing to women, which in turn fuels backlash among men.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Survey, Marriage, Gender, and Gender Equality
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
4. Forecasting Nuclear Escalation Risks: Cloudy With a Chance of Fallout
- Author:
- Jamie Kwong, Anna Bartoux, and James M. Acton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Forecasting—that is, estimating the probability of specified events’ occurring—can contribute to efforts to better understand and address the challenge of managing escalation.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Forecast, Escalation, and Risk Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
5. Democratic Recovery After Significant Backsliding: Emergent Lessons
- Author:
- Thomas Carothers and McKenzie Carrier
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In a global political landscape marked by twenty years of widespread democratic backsliding, some good news exists: in a handful of countries where leaders significantly undercut democratic norms and institutions, elections have brought to power new leadership with a strong declared commitment to restoring democracy.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Institutions, Democratic Backsliding, and Global Politics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
6. What the White House and Congress Can Do to Prevent Global Mass Atrocities
- Author:
- Federica D'Alessandra
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Unites States has long recognized that preventing and responding to mass atrocities is both a moral responsibility and in its national security interest. Commitment to atrocity prevention and response has long enjoyed broad bipartisan support, and the U.S. government has long been a global leader on the issue. In 2011, the United States was the first country to establish an interagency body dedicated to atrocity prevention. Ever since, each Republican and Democratic administration—with the support of Congress—has taken additional, important steps toward implementing this objective. In 2019, under President Donald Trump, the United States was the first country to enact federal legislation addressing global mass atrocities. The Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act mandates the White House to report annually to Congress on government-led atrocity prevention efforts. Under the act, the second Trump administration will again be required to report to Congress by mid-2025, raising the question: What is in store for the atrocity prevention agenda under Trump 2.0? This paper reviews the atrocity prevention track record of the first Trump administration and other relevant action taken so far in this second term to parse out what efforts to sustain and uphold U.S. atrocity prevention obligations could look like under Trump’s second White House. This paper highlights how a number of steps the administration has already taken, including but not limited to the recently announced reorganization of the U.S. Department of State and the effective dissolution of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), unless promptly addressed, will raise dire challenges for the readiness and capacity of the State Department and other relevant agencies tasked with operationalizing U.S. commitments to this end. Accordingly, this paper advances a number of actionable recommendations that both the White House and the U.S. Congress should urgently consider to ensure the administration stands ready and capable to fulfill its obligations under the Elie Wiesel Act and other relevant legislation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, and Atrocity Prevention
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
7. Geothermal Energy and U.S. Competitive Advantage: Drill, Baby, Drill
- Author:
- Robert W. Sweeney and Noah Gordon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The United States and the rest of the world sit at the intersection of potentially destabilizing trends. Great power competition, climate change, intensifying geopolitical uncertainty, the economy’s potential deglobalization, and the potential massive increase in energy demands arising from artificial intelligence (AI) are creating challenges for U.S. national energy policy. A foremost concern is the vulnerability of energy supply chains to interference from or control by a hostile power. In this dynamic context, U.S. energy policy has evolved significantly in terms of markets, supplies, regulation, and legislation. The country’s success in using fracking technology and exploiting abundant shale reserves have made it the world’s largest producer of hydrocarbons and a major exporter, especially of natural gas.1 Further, as national and international concerns about climate change have grown, U.S. energy policy has become more aligned with transitioning to renewable sources. So far, the focus of clean energy additions has been on wind, solar, and nuclear power. Beginning in the mid-2000s, the United States issued legislation and policies raising renewable energy to the level of industrial policy. Among those were the Energy Policy Act (2005), the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009), the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) (2021), the CHIPS and Science Act (2022), and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) (2022). However, geothermal energy—which uses the heat of the earth’s crust for power—has been largely left out of U.S. industrial policy. This is despite the facts that utilizing this source of renewable energy requires some of the same technologies that have made the United States the world’s top oil and gas producer and that geothermal has the potential to provide clean, dispatchable power that does not rely on weather conditions. With U.S. clean firm power demand expected to increase by approximately 700–900 gigawatts by 2050,2 the United States needs to dramatically increase capacity while reducing or eliminating net carbon output and insulating its energy supply from dependence on international supply chains. The question for the country now is: how should public and private resources be directed to provide the United States with an energy system optimized for the current national and international environment? This paper argues that recent advances in geothermal power have made it the technology with superior characteristics for future U.S. energy system development. With its comparative advantages, geothermal power merits an urgent, intense, and dedicated reorientation of U.S. industrial policy, legislation, and resources.
- Topic:
- Development, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Geothermal Power
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
8. Will Kuwait’s Parliamentary Democracy Be Restored, Reformed, or Repudiated?
- Author:
- Omar Al Jasser and Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Kuwaitis are accustomed to a domestic political scene that sometimes resembles a soap opera with shifting characters and much melodrama but no resolution. For over a generation, fiercely contested parliamentary elections have consistently produced fractured parliaments that clash with individual ministers, leading to confrontation, parliamentary grilling, and dissolutions of cabinets and parliaments that are replaced by new bodies that merely resume the tussle. But on May 10, 2024, the soap opera abruptly came to an end. Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad, the newly enthroned emir, not only dissolved the recently elected parliament but also suspended the body indefinitely, promising a four-year process of constitutional revision. While the step was dramatic, the extent and nature of further change remains unclear. The suspension is forcing all Kuwaiti political actors to direct their attention to portentous long-term issues rather than more ephemeral short-term drama, but so far there is little indication of how the issues will be resolved. The drama of daily crises has often obscured far more significant evolutionary trends. Over the six decades of its existence, the Kuwaiti constitution’s text has not changed, but the way key institutions operate (parliament in particular) and the way they interact (especially cabinet-parliamentary relations) have changed significantly. The suspension of parliament came largely in response to ruler frustrations with this dichotomy and the feeling that parliaments lead to gridlock, grandstanding, and corruption. Has a governing system that seemed to offer so much noise and motion but little movement come to a full stop? Will Kuwait rejoin its neighbors and abandon its experiment with powerful parliaments? Other parliamentary bodies on the Arabian Peninsula are generally more limited in their prerogatives, and elections are either avoided or constrained; notably, Qatar abandoned elections in favor of an appointed assembly six months after the Kuwaiti parliamentary suspension. Or will Kuwait instead simply revert back to its old system after a cooling-off period or in response to popular pressure (as happened twice in the past)? At this point, it is uncertain whether Kuwait’s style of parliamentary democracy will be restored, reformed, or repudiated. Still, the fallout from the emir’s action has deeply affected the rhythm of Kuwaiti politics (and silenced some of the loudest public discussions) without determining the country’s fundamental direction. The path of full autocracy remains open, and the promise of a committee to reform the constitution and pave the way for parliamentary restoration has been ignored to date. But this inaction does not necessarily imply an intention to permanently abolish parliament; rather, it may suggest that reform or restoration is more likely. Regardless, there are currently no clear indications of what changes might be made. So, while the potential for dramatic change exists, Kuwait’s leaders may have simply bought themselves a respite rather than a resolution. Important Kuwaiti political actors seem to be working out their strategies very slowly, meaning that questions will be answered over years, not weeks or months. But in the meantime, the flavor of Kuwaiti politics is shifting in ways that are often unannounced but very consequential for a society accustomed to a feisty and active political life.
- Topic:
- Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Kuwait and Gulf Nations
9. Double Dealers: Lebanon and the Risks of Captagon Trafficking
- Author:
- Mohanad Hage Ali
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Lebanon’s financial collapse and the Syrian conflict have allowed for the growth of an illicit economy, giving rise to a new breed of drug traffickers with ties to Lebanese parties and influence in the security forces. To address this, the country must adopt a comprehensive approach.
- Topic:
- Security, Syrian War, Drug Trafficking, and Captagon
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
10. Rethinking a Political Approach to Nuclear Abolition
- Author:
- George Perkovich, Fumihiko Yoshida, and Michiru Nishida
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Preventing nuclear war and other existential military threats requires nations today to focus more on politics than on the qualities or quantities of weapons. Yet, many participants in nuclear policy debates do the opposite.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus