Publishing Institution: - CIAO Search Results

501. Between backyards and nakamals: Shifting Australia–Vanuatu relations

Author:: Anna Naupa
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia’s strategic anxiety and narrative emphasis on security “threats” in the Pacific Islands region have increasingly dominated bilateral affairs in the past decade. This has progressively reconfigured its valued development cooperation and risks a neglect of historical and contemporary reciprocal relations, which in turn can undermine diplomatic trust-building. Deeper Pacific literacy — particularly through a whole-of-government Australian investment in strategic empathy — can meaningfully contribute to more enduring and resilient diplomatic relations with a key Australian neighbour: Vanuatu. The anticipated Nakamal Agreement with Vanuatu offers opportunities for Australia to “think outside the box” in its statecraft, with broader lessons for regional relations. Leaning into an inclusive conceptualisation of the Vanuatu nakamal way — through joint crafting of a more comprehensive engagement model — will better enable the two countries to create a transformational economic partnership that responds to Vanuatu’s most pressing climate and development concerns, while alleviating Australia’s strategic anxiety.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Vanuatu

502. The Impacts of Parole Supervision

Author:: Luke Brinkman, Andrew Jordan, and Derek Neal
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: In 2021, Illinois passed the Safety, Accountability, Fairness and Equity-Today Act, commonly known as the SAFE‑T Act. This legislation received significant national attention because it ended cash bail in Illinois and included numerous reforms to the supervision of prisoners upon their release. In Illinois, most exiting prisoners serve a period of mandatory supervised release (MSR), which is similar to parole supervision in other states. The original SAFE‑T Act modified MSR terms for many parolees, and Illinois amended the law on December 6, 2022, creating a natural policy experiment. During the six months preceding this date, the state assigned a large group of released prisoners to one year of supervision. This group contained prisoners sentenced for both serious offenses (Classes 1 and 2) and lesser offenses (Classes 3 and 4). However, starting on January 1, 2023, the state assigned released prisoners in Classes 3 and 4 to six months of MSR.
Topic:: Crime, Law Enforcement, Incarceration, and Parole
Political Geography:: North America, Illinois, and United States of America

503. Immigration Restrictions and Natives’ Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from the 1920s US Quota Acts

Author:: James Feigenbaum, Yi-Ju Hung, Marco Tabellini, and Monia Tomasella
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Immigration policy has emerged as a focal point of political debate in many advanced economies. Proposals to curtail immigration are frequently justified on economic grounds. Some argue that immigrants increase competition in local labor markets, depress wages for native workers, and strain public resources. Research has increasingly sought to evaluate the consequences of immigration restrictions on economic growth, employment, and wages. While these studies have deepened our understanding of the shorter-run effects of immigration policy on labor markets, we know less about its implications for future generations of native-born workers. This question is especially important because immigration restrictions often persist for decades once enacted.
Topic:: Economy, Immigration Policy, Social Mobility, and Quota
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

504. Mainstreamed but sidelined: Global funding for gender equality

Author:: Grace Stanhope
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Basic rights and wellbeing outcomes for women and girls globally are regressing or stalling. Cuts to foreign aid and a growing hostility towards gender equality programs risk eroding hard-won gains and turning the trend into a crisis. Rising international aid for gender equality has disguised a stagnation of targeted funding for core issues such as healthcare, education, physical safety, and legal rights. This funding gap is widest in conflict zones and disaster-affected areas, where women and girls are often the most at risk and the least supported. The most effective solution is to “upstream” gender equality aid directly into international development funding of core sectors, rather than treating it as an add-on. Anchoring this approach with a clear funding commitment would help protect these programs and deliver better outcomes for the world’s most vulnerable women and girls.
Topic:: Foreign Aid, Sustainable Development Goals, Gender, Gender Equality, and Gender Mainstreaming
Political Geography:: Global Focus

505. Low Earth Orbit satellites: Closing the Indo-Pacific digital divide

Author:: Hilman Palaon
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Low Earth Orbit satellite technology can help close Indo-Pacific connectivity gaps, but prohibitive costs mean the technology’s value lies in applications that target remote communities, disaster resilience, and high-value niche uses. Supportive regional policies will be crucial to bridging the digital divide. These policies should focus on subsidies, community gateways, and universal service obligations, as well as complementary investments in digital literacy, device access, reliable electricity, and locally relevant content. Governance is key, including to manage the strategic risks posed by competing providers, ensure balanced regulation, utilise regional approaches where possible, address emerging risks, pilot potentially high-impact use cases, and leverage international financial support.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Governance, and Satellites
Political Geography:: Indo-Pacific

506. The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Insights from 180 Years of US Trade Policy

Author:: Tamar den Besten, Diego R. Känzig, Régis Barnichon, and Aayush Singh
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The sharp increase in US tariff rates in 2025 has renewed interest in the macroeconomic effects of tariffs. Yet surprisingly little evidence exists on this topic. Most studies rely on post–World War II data—a period with relatively modest movements in average tariff rates—and focus on narrow outcomes, such as relative price changes, industry-level effects, or bilateral trade flows. Consequently, the aggregate effects of tariffs on output, prices, and trade are less well understood.
Topic:: Economy, Tariffs, Macroeconomics, Trade Policy, and Industry
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

507. Industrial Activity, State Capacity, and Deforestation: Evidence from Brazil

Author:: Daniel Da Mata, Mario Dotta, and Edson R. Severnini
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Most developing countries struggle with limited state capacity, which hinders their ability to enforce laws and provide public goods. This limitation affects many aspects of governance, including environmental regulation, and can lead to increased deforestation and land degradation. However, policies that outsource state functions to market players—when public and private incentives are aligned—may partially address these challenges by harnessing the private sector’s reach and efficiency.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Deforestation, Livestock, and State Capacity
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

508. The Incidence of Tariffs: Rates and Reality

Author:: Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Statutory tariff rates on US imports recently reached levels not seen in more than 100 years. By the end of 2025, the average statutory rate (weighted by the volume of trade subject to each rate) was 26 percent. Imports from 171 countries, accounting for more than 70 percent of all US imports, faced higher tariffs than at the end of 2024.
Topic:: Economy, Tariffs, Manufacturing, Trade, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

509. Closing the Gaps in Environmental Crime: A Risk-Based Approach to Tackling Money Laundering in the Timber Supply Chain

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: Deforestation in the Amazon is at a decisive moment. In Brazil alone, 91% of the deforestation recorded between 2023 and 2024 occurred without authorization. The continuation of this process brings the forest closer to a point of no return, with irreversible impacts on climate regulation, the hydrological cycle, biodiversity, and the socioeconomic stability of the region. Despite the magnitude of the crisis, environmental crime still does not occupy a central position in the agenda to combat organized crime, even though it is a large-scale illicit activity enabled by the commission of related crimes such as corruption, document fraud, false statements, and money laundering. The timber sector clearly illustrates this dynamic. Illegal extraction does not occur outside the productive system, but rather through it. Forest management plans are manipulated, authorizations are granted under conflicts of interest, documents are falsified, and illegally extracted timber is inserted into the formal market as if it were a legitimate product. The concealment of the illicit origin of environmental assets constitutes, in practice, a process of laundering. However, the absence of specific typologies and indicators creates a regulatory gap that allows illicit revenues to be integrated into the formal market and the financial system with a low level of detection. In response to this gap, the Igarapé Institute developed this study to strengthen the anti-money laundering system through the creation of techniques aimed at identifying risks of fraud, corruption, and money laundering in the timber sector. The proposed methodologies include indicators organized into three categories: (i) identification of conflicts of interest between public officials and companies in the timber sector; (ii) detection of risks associated with fraud and corruption in the approval of forest management plans; and (iii) analysis of risks linked to the extraction and processing of illegal timber. To test the applicability of these techniques, the Igarapé Institute conducted a pilot study in the state of Pará, which resulted in the identification of 125 public officials, 204 technical professionals responsible for signing forest management plans, 877 individuals, and 116 entities holding exploitation rights over the area, as well as 341 timber processing units with indications of high risk. The exercise demonstrates that it is possible to adapt the anti-money laundering system to the specificities of environmental crime and expand its capacity for prevention and detection.
Topic:: Corruption, Governance, Supply Chains, Deforestation, Money Laundering, Enforcement, Logging, Environmental Crime, and Forest Management
Political Geography:: South America and Amazon

510. After the compromise: Australia’s COP31 blueprint for the Pacific

Author:: Melanie Pill, Georgia Hammersley, and Alexandre Dayant
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia’s COP31 compromise with Türkiye, which allows Antalya to host this year’s global climate summit, secures Canberra’s control of official negotiations but weakens its influence over the wider summit, where practical decisions are made. The Pacific-hosted pre-COP is a critical opportunity to build political momentum ahead of COP31 by convening selected global leaders and placing Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in a visible leadership role to secure high-profile support for Pacific climate priorities. Australia can still deliver meaningful outcomes for the Pacific by aligning regional priorities with those of other climate-vulnerable countries, exercising ambitious leadership through the President of Negotiations, and redirecting hosting-related resources towards climate action in the region.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Australia, Pacific Islands, Turkey, and Global Focus

511. The ungoverned sky: Drones and the domestic extremist threat

Author:: James Paterson and Lydia Khalil
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Domestic extremist actors are incorporating drone technology into operational capabilities and attack plots, taking inspiration from the battlefield. The number of violent plots utilising drones has increased sharply over the past five years. Domestic counter-drone frameworks are mismatched to the threat. Effective protection requires layered, multi-system approaches across potential civilian targets and critical infrastructure. Easy-to-access technologies, such as 3D printing, open-source design files, additive hardware, and AI-assisted navigation are lowering the barriers to modifying and weaponising drones.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, Weapons, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, and 3D Printing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

512. The global sovereign citizen movement

Author:: Lydia Khalil and Keiran Hardy
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The sovereign citizen movement has spread from the United States to more than 26 countries globally. Covid restrictions and digital networks accelerated its growth and created dangerous intersections with other conspiracy movements. The sovereign citizen movement has grown beyond a nuisance, escalating into a national security challenge for many countries around the world. The transnational threat of the movement requires multilateral intelligence coordination, online interventions to counter influencers, narratives, and networks, and globally informed threat assessments.
Topic:: Intelligence, National Security, Social Media, Conspiracy Theory, Political Extremism, and Sovereign Citizens
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

513. From Narco Cartels to Criminal Networks: The Structural Transformation of Organized Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: atin America and the Caribbean’s major criminal groups can no longer be understood simply as regional drug trafficking organizations moving cocaine through global markets. That image belongs to an earlier phase. Today, several of these organizations exercise territorial authority, generate revenue from both licit and illicit economies, and shape political life from the ground up. Across the region, they are expanding into strategic sectors, exploiting regulatory weaknesses, and transforming new financial technologies into instruments of concealment and control. The criminal landscape of Latin America and the Caribbean has entered a more complex and dangerous phase. Cocaine production has reached record levels, and Mexican, Brazilian, Colombian, and Ecuadorian criminal organizations have become deeply embedded in global logistics networks, including major European ports such as Antwerp, Hamburg, Le Havre, Rotterdam, and Valencia. Their resilience no longer depends on violence alone. It rests on the protective systems they build around themselves, the revenue streams they control, and the local authority they accumulate where the state is predatory, selective, or absent. This is as much a governance problem as it is a security problem. Criminal groups are not simply attacking the state from the outside. In many places, they operate through the everyday machinery of public authority, turning institutional weaknesses into strategic advantages and public office into a source of protection. This constitutes a core element of criminal governance, enabling criminal organizations to absorb law-enforcement pressure, recover from territorial losses, and survive the removal or replacement of their leaders. In this article, we identify six major transformations. First, the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted criminal supply chains in the short term but deepened poverty, weakened state capacity, and expanded informal economies in ways that accelerated criminal expansion once restrictions were lifted. Second, criminal groups diversified their revenue streams across an increasingly wide range of sectors and supply chains. Third, criminal logistics became globalized. Fourth, state responses across the region increasingly favored militarized emergency models capable of reducing visible violence in the short term while leaving criminal finance, corruption, and illicit governance structures largely intact. Fifth, organized crime’s corrosive effect on democratic institutions intensified through the capture of electoral, judicial, municipal, and security institutions. Sixth, a tougher U.S. security posture reshaped the hemisphere through terrorist designations, lethal maritime strikes, coercive diplomacy, deeper operational partnerships, and pressure on governments viewed as insufficiently aligned with Washington’s counter-narcotics and migration-control priorities.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Organized Crime, Cartels, Illicit Financial Flows, Drug Trafficking, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

514. The geopolitics of critical minerals and implications for Brazil and Canada

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: Critical minerals have moved from the margins of industrial policy to the center of geopolitical competition. Cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare earths now underpin three strategic imperatives: energy transition, digital infrastructure, and defense readiness. As rivalry between the United States and China intensifies, and as China leverages its dominance in processing, governments are reshaping supply chains through new alliances and targeted policy interventions. Brazil and Canada are central to this emerging mineral order. Both countries combine strong geological endowments with institutional capacity and diplomatic reach. Canada brings diversified extraction, growing midstream ambitions, and a coordinated policy approach reinforced during its 2025 G7 presidency. Brazil brings vast reserves and a more assertive industrial strategy aimed at moving up the value chain and reducing reliance on raw material exports. Yet both face the same structural challenge: transforming resource abundance into lasting economic and geopolitical influence. China’s dominance in processing reflects decades of accumulated technological capability, specialized expertise, and industrial learning—not simply subsidies. Closing this gap requires sustained investment in midstream capacity, particularly in refining, chemical conversion, and skilled labor. This article examines the forces shaping the global minerals landscape, including demand dynamics, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the evolving toolkit of geoeconomic competition. It analyzes how major powers are structuring alliances and how Brazil and Canada are positioning themselves within this shifting architecture—both individually and as potential partners. It concludes by outlining pathways for bilateral and regional cooperation, from building a Canada-Brazil midstream corridor and aligning standards to investing in human capital and strengthening regional infrastructure. The window for action is narrowing: as the institutional framework of mineral security takes shape, countries that move early and strategically will help define the rules of the system rather than adapt to them.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Geopolitics, Lithium, Supply Chains, Rare earth elements (REEs), Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Canada, Brazil, and South America

515. Between Borders and States: Illegal Mining and Mercury Trafficking in the Amazon

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The Amazon is facing a growing set of pressures shaped by the convergence of accelerated environmental degradation, the expansion of illicit economies, and the fragility of state presence. In this context, illegal gold mining and mercury trafficking occupy a central position, both because of the environmental and public health impacts they produce and because of the way they connect the Amazon rainforest to transnational chains of trade, finance, and logistics. The dynamics sustaining this mechanism, however, do not originate in the forest. Mercury, an essential input for gold amalgamation, enters the region through opaque channels, while the extracted gold enters formal circuits of trade, often far from the territories where socio-environmental impacts are concentrated. Although Amazonian borders are often portrayed as obstacles to addressing these illicit activities, a closer analysis offers insights into the governmental actions and institutional limitations that shape the effectiveness and continuity of the Amazonian countries’ responses over time. It is from this perspective that this study is developed. The research examines how mercury trafficking and illegal gold mining are subject to different forms of state intervention — criminal, administrative, regulatory, and territorial — and how these interventions combine, overlap, or become misaligned when illicit dynamics cross national borders. The study is based on two case studies that illustrate, from different perspectives, the challenges of confronting illegal gold mining and mercury trafficking at the Amazonian border regions. The first focuses on the structure and operation of corporate networks involved in the mercury trade. The second examines the institutional architecture centered on the judiciary and state bodies tasked with protecting Indigenous peoples living in voluntary isolation threatened by illegal mining. Finally, the study presents conclusions aimed at strengthening institutional responses to illegal mining and the input trafficking in the Amazon, with emphasis on both coordination among national bodies and regional cooperation.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Governance, Trafficking, Mining, Indigenous, Illicit Financial Flows, Environmental Crime, and Mercury
Political Geography:: South America and Amazon

516. Justice Denied, Silence Maintained: Women's Voices from the Margins of South Africa's Justice System

Author:: Lindokuhle Malambe
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This research amplifies the lived experiences of women survivors of gender-based violence as they navigate South Africa's criminal justice system. Drawing on qualitative research conducted across diverse communities, the report examines the systemic barriers that prevent women from accessing justice, including institutional failures, secondary victimisation, delayed investigations, and inadequate survivor-centred services. ' The findings highlight the gap between progressive legal and policy frameworks and women's everyday experiences of seeking justice. The report concludes with evidence-based recommendations to strengthen accountability, improve survivor-centred responses, and advance a more accessible, responsive, and equitable justice system for all women.
Topic:: Women, Gender Based Violence, Criminal Justice, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

517. Gender Gaps in Academic Careers Evidence from Economics in Argentina

Author:: María Edo, Mariana Marchionni, Maria Florencia Pinto, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of gender disparities in academic economics in Argentina, and one of the few systematic studies on this topic in developing countries. Using newly collected and harmonized data from administrative records, university sources, web scraping, and ad-hoc surveys, we document women’s representation across stages of economics education and academic careers. We identify a leaky pipeline: a small gender gap at the undergraduate level widens in later stages, including research activity, faculty positions, publications, rankings, and leadership roles. Exploring potential drivers—such as academic performance, aspirations, exposure to role models, coauthorship, networking, funding, service—we find that women and men exhibit similar performance and comparable aspirations to pursue academic careers, yet their trajectories diverge. Although descriptive, our results suggest that gender disparities are unlikely to reflect differences in ability or preferences, and instead arise from a complex interaction of structural conditions and individual choices.
Topic:: Economics, Developing World, Inequality, Academia, and Gender
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

518. Labor market impacts of an internship program on people with disabilities

Author:: Inés Berniell, Lucila Berniell, Victoria Castillo, Belén Cañuelo, and Dolores de la Mata
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the impact of an internship program in Argentina (Programa Primer Paso) on the formal employment trajectories of People with Disabilities (PwD). Using administrative data from 2002–2023 and a staggered differencein-differences design, we estimate that program participation persistently increases formal employment and improves employment stability over time. On average, the probability of being formally employed rises by about 8 percentage points within three years after treatment, with the effect growing over time. The program also increases sustained employment—measured as at least six or twelve months of formal work per year—as well as the total number of months in formal jobs. Importantly, about three-quarters of the observed employment gains arise from jobs at firms other than the initial internship host, indicating broader integration into the formal labor market rather than the formalization of pre-existing ties. These results are robust to alternative specifications and pre-trend tests. The effects are larger for individuals residing in the capital city and for those placed in medium- and large-sized firms, while they are smaller for individuals with mental disabilities. No clear differences are found by age or gender. From the perspective of participating firms, we find no evidence of changes in their hiring behavior toward PwD after hosting a PPP intern with a disability. These findings suggest that internship programs can be an effective tool to reduce labor market gaps for people with disabilities in developing countries, with patterns consistent with the alleviation of informational frictions, the raising of expectations about employment prospects, and the acquisition of transferable skills.
Topic:: Employment, Disability, Labor Market, and Internships
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

519. Intergenerational Mobility and Populist Attitudes in Latin America

Author:: Bautista Santamarina, Matias Ciaschi, and Mariana Marchionni
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the relationship between intergenerational educational mobility and populist attitudes in Latin America, a region characterized by low levels of intergenerational mobility and a long-standing presence of populist leadership. In contexts where social origin strongly predicts individual outcomes, perceptions of unfairness may create fertile ground for populist narratives. Using harmonized microdata from 18 waves of the Latinobarómetro survey covering individuals born between 1940 and 2000, we document a robust negative association between intergenerational mobility and populist attitudes across multiple indicators, including anti-democratic attitudes, support for military governments, anti-immigrant sentiments, and institutional distrust. These results hold when using a relative mobility measure that captures pure positional change net of structural trends, and at the cohort level when exploiting standard mobility measures from the literature. Cohort-level estimates further reveal that the effect of persistence is amplified in high-inequality contexts, suggesting that immobility and contemporaneous inequality act as complements in shaping political discontent. Decomposing inequality into opportunity and effort components, we find evidence suggesting that populist attitudes are mostly driven by inequalities of opportunity. These findings suggest that the persistent emergence of populist leadership in Latin America is linked to the region’s stubbornly low intergenerational mobility and unequal access to opportunities.
Topic:: Democracy, Populism, Social Mobility, and Intergenerational
Political Geography:: Latin America

520. Soft-skills Training, Locus of Control, and Labor Market Outcomes of Youth: Evidence from Kenya

Author:: Kibrom A. Abay, María Laura Alzua, Nelima Barasa, Phyllis Mumia Machio, and Martin Paul Jr. Tabe-Ojong
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We evaluate the impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ labor market constraints in technical and vocational education and training (TVET) institutions in Kenya using a clustered randomized controlled trial. We also explore whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control, moderates the impact of soft-skills training. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for the youth. Although we find suggestive evidence that the soft-skills training marginally contributed to preparing the youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes appears negligible. However, the effect of soft-skills training varies across individuals with varying personality traits. Soft-skills training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control, implying important heterogeneity across individuals with varying non-cognitive skills.
Topic:: Youth, Labor Market, and Soft Skills
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

521. Occupational Mobility and Green Transition: A Stylized Estimation of Skill Investment Needs in South Asia

Author:: Andres Ham, Emmanuel Vazquez, Monica Yanez-Pagans, Camilla Knudsen, and Saher Asad
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper estimates the share of green employment in seven South Asian countries using an O*NET-based definition and finds that, on average, 24 percent of jobs in the region are currently green. The paper then assesses the potential for non-green workers to transition into green occupations. Among all non-green workers, 57 percent could transition to green jobs with limited reskilling, 16 percent with moderate upskilling, and 27 percent with full skills reconversion. These results suggest three policy priorities—promoting on-the-job training, strengthening firm-based and public–private training systems, and adopting a dual strategy that invests in reskilling and upskilling today’s workforce while simultaneously advancing forward-looking education reforms that equip future cohorts for new and emerging green occupations.
Topic:: Climate Change, Labor Market, Skills, Green Transition, Green Jobs, and Occupational Mobility
Political Geography:: South Asia

522. Asymmetric Adaptation to Heat and Energy Poverty

Author:: Adriana Camacho, Leonardo Gasparini, Luis Laguinge, Jorge Puig, and Hernan Winkler
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We study the responses of household electricity consumption to temperature changes, focusing on asymmetries between welfare deciles. Our analysis exploits a unique panel dataset for Peru that links household survey microdata with repeated administrative records on energy use and local temperature. Using fixed-effects models, we estimate how electricity consumption varies with temperature, highlighting the unequal capacity of households across income deciles to adapt to climate change. Based on this evidence, we propose and implement a novel measure of adaptive energy poverty, which captures households’ ability to respond to rising ambient temperatures through increased electricity consumption.
Topic:: Electricity, Temperature, and Energy Poverty
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

523. Safeguarding or Sidestepping? The Centre-Right, the Minimum Wage, and Collective Bargaining Autonomy in the German and Italian Low-Wage Sectors

Author:: Joshua Cova and Matteo Marenco
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: Opposition to statutory minimum wages by right-of-centre parties has typically been framed around employment externalities. Yet in Germany before the adoption of a statutory minimum wage, and in Italy today, right-of-centre parties have often invoked a different rationale: defending collective bargaining autonomy against state interference. In this paper, we investigate how centre-right parties in both countries have engaged with collective bargaining while each facing a specific scenario: declining coverage in Germany, and weakened representativeness in Italy. Examining recent policy proposals such as linking public procurement to collective bargaining agreements or regulating union representativeness, we find that these measures were largely opposed by the centre-right. A quantitative text analysis of parliamentary debates further reveals a strategic use of collective bargaining discussions by centre-right parties: In Germany, salience peaked before the statutory minimum wage was introduced but fell sharply thereafter, while collective bargaining gained prominence discursively for the Italian centre-right only in conjunction with the minimum wage debate. Complemented by stakeholder interviews and electoral data analysis, our findings suggest that this trend reflects ideological as well as electoral dynamics, as centre-right parties draw on significant support from small business owners in sectors with weak collective bargaining. Appeals to bargaining autonomy thus function less as substantive commitments than as instruments to preserve the status quo in the low-wage sector.
Topic:: Political Parties, Minimum Wage, Collective Bargaining, and Safeguarding
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Italy

524. Data Challenges and Innovations in Measuring Domestic Violence in Latin America and the Caribbean: Traditional Sources and Online Search Patterns

Author:: Inés Berniell, Gabriel Facchini, and Santiago M. Perez-Vincent
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This study examines the challenges of analyzing domestic violence (DV) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and seeks to improve measurement through two main contributions. First, we collect and describe traditional DV data sources (household surveys and administrative records) across 19 countries. The analysis reveals substantial gaps in data availability, with infrequent and outdated survey efforts in most countries. Nevertheless, surveys confirm high DV prevalence, with at least one in five women reporting victimization in all countries examined, and highlight pervasive underreporting that limits the reliability of administrative crime data. Second, we examine the properties of a novel, high-frequency indicator based on online search behavior: the Google Domestic Violence Index. Using administrative data from eight LAC countries, we find that the index is strongly correlated with calls to DV helplines but shows weaker association with police reports or emergency calls. The evidence suggests that the index captures early-stage, information-seeking behavior and may provide a real-time signal of latent victimization not reflected in official statistics. Our findings underscore the potential of digital data to complement traditional sources and to support more timely, responsive approaches to tracking DV.
Topic:: Internet, Data, Domestic Violence, and Google
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

525. Marriage as Insurance: Household Responses to Immigration Policy Uncertainty

Author:: Cristian Bonavida
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines whether marriage serves as a strategic response to immigration policy uncertainty. We study transitions into marriage among cohabiting binational couples—defined as unions between a U.S. citizen and a noncitizen partner—following the shift in immigration policy expectations during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and the subsequent tightening of enforcement in 2017. Using ACS data from 2008 to 2019 and a difference-in-differences design, we compare marriage transitions among binational couples to those of homogeneous citizen couples. Immigration policy uncertainty increased marriage rates among binational couples by approximately 1.5–1.8 percentage points, or about 8-10 percent relative to pre-treatment levels. Event-study estimates show no differential pre-trends and indicate that the response began in 2016, prior to the formal reinstatement of Secure Communities. The effect is concentrated among likely unauthorized immigrants and individuals from targeted nationalities. The findings suggest that marriage functioned as a form of legal and economic insurance in response to heightened deportation risk.
Topic:: Economics, Marriage, Household, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

526. Status of Environmental Justice in Karamoja and West Nile Sub-Regions in Uganda

Author:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This report presents a comprehensive assessment of the status of environmental justice in Uganda, with a particular focus on the Karamoja and West Nile regions. These two regions, though distinct in ecological and socio-economic characteristics, are united by their position which is at the frontline of environmental change, governance challenges, and livelihood vulnerability. Karamoja is characterized by semi-arid landscapes and pastoral livelihoods, faces intensifying pressures from climate variability, land degradation, and expanding extractive and conservation activities. West Nile, by contrast, represents a complex humanitarian–ecological interface shaped by one of the largest refugee-hosting contexts in Africa. West Nile is where population influxes are placing unprecedented strain on land, forests, and water resources. These two regions provide a critical lens through which to understand how environmental governance systems shape outcomes like equity, inclusion, and sustainability in Uganda.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Sustainability, Ecology, and Environmental Justice
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

527. Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics

Author:: Milagros Onofri, Inés Berniell, Raquel Fernandez, and Azul Menduiña
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research.
Topic:: Demographics, Education, Fertility, and Age
Political Geography:: Latin America

528. Moral and Legitimate? Historical, Legal, and Affective Issues Around Educational Privatization in Germany

Author:: Karen Lillie and Luisa Hideg
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: Germany’s education system is in the midst of privatization. Although this trend, which started in the 1980s, ostensibly parallels neoliberal education reforms across Europe and the Anglophone world, Germany’s case is a special one. Privatization in the country is happening within a historical and legal context that favors public schooling; however, families increasingly exercise school choice to select “the best” for their children. The tension between historically and legally informed norms, on the one hand, and affective desires, on the other, is morally problematic for parents navigating between what is generally accepted as good for society and what they believe is good for an individual. At stake in this struggle is whether school choice becomes a “legitimate” part of the German education system, in a Bourdieusian sense. If it does, it risks strengthening social class closure mechanisms and heightening resultant social class anxiety.
Topic:: Education, Privatization, History, Law, Reform, and Class
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

529. A Practical Guide to LinkedIn Advertising Reach Data for Social Science: Methods, Challenges, and Five Applications

Author:: Saila Naomi Stausholm and Javier Garcia-Bernardo
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: LinkedIn data offers a unique way to study how professional groups and organizations underpin economic and political life. This paper shows how LinkedIn’s advertising reach data, which provides anonymized counts of users by job title, skills, employer, and location, can be used to study organizational and professional dynamics relevant to a wide range of issues in political economy and economic sociology. We showcase the potential through five illustrative cases: 1) the revolving doors between Wall Street and US financial regulators; 2) the geography of professionals such as accountants and bankers; 3) the professional composition of interdisciplinary firms such as antitrust consulting firms; 4) recruitment by different industries and specifically big professional services firms in the face of new regulatory demands for sustainability reporting; and 5) the emergence of a profession of cyber security professionals over time. Alongside these examples, we provide a step-by-step guide for implementing the method in practice and discuss how linking professional attributes with geographical or organizational characteristics can provide new answers to various research questions. We hope this paper serves as a helpful practical guide as well as inspiration for new research questions.
Topic:: Data, Advertising, Social Science, Professionals, and LinkedIn
Political Geography:: Global Focus

530. Defending before the International Criminal Court: An Interview with Mylène Dimitri

Author:: Mylène Dmitri, Cailan Cumming, Kate Gibson, and Paul Williams
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: This blog is part of the Defending Justice series, an initiative of the Public International Law and Policy Group (PILPG) to promote an eclectic array of voices within the field of international criminal law. As part of our broader efforts to strengthen institutions of justice, this series seeks to create space for dialogue around the varied perspectives and concerns that shape these institutions. With that aim in mind, we interviewed a series of defense practitioners working in international criminal law and distilled their experiences and insights into a series of first-person blogs, preserving the spirit and voice of those interviews.
Topic:: International Law, Interview, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

531. Why Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine Cannot Be Cured by a Vote: A Legal and Historical Reality Check

Author:: Greta Ramelli, Kateryna Kyrychenko, David Griffiths, Clyde Freeman, Anastasia Zaluckyj, Dmyro Panchenko, and Rahul Ramesh
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: A persistent assumption in some policy debates is that concessions of territories under Russia’s occupation will offer a pathway to ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Trump administration has repeatedly supported this thesis. While European officials have generally been more cautious, the possibility of territorial compromise has nevertheless entered public debate, including in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have, however, distinguished between acknowledging the difficulty of restoring control by force in the near term and legally recognizing Russia’s claims over occupied territory. Yet, this argument rests on a critical assumption that ceding territories would be sufficient to stop Russia’s aggression. This premise is far from settled. Analysts have repeatedly noted that Russia’s war aims extend well beyond Donbas, Crimea, or the mere acquisition of territory. The conduct of the war, characterized by war crimes and crimes against humanity, including systematic attacks on civilian infrastructure, forced deportations, and efforts to erase Ukrainian cultural identity, raises serious doubts about whether any concession, large or small, would meaningfully alter Russia’s strategic objectives. The trajectory of the war suggests the opposite: that Russia’s war is more than just an attempt to gain strategic territories and that ceding some territories is unlikely to bring peace. Even if it is doubtful that territorial concessions would meaningfully alter the course of Russia’s campaign, it is still necessary to examine all potential scenarios that could influence how the war might eventually conclude. Considering these possibilities does not suggest that concessions are advisable or likely to succeed; it just reflects the need to understand the full range of legal, historical, and practical constraints that would shape any hypothetical settlement. Assuming (purely for the sake of analysis) that territorial concessions could form part of a hypothetical negotiation, far more difficult questions immediately arise: how would such concessions be made? What legal mechanisms would be required? What constraints would international law impose? What limits does Ukrainian constitutional law create? And what can be learned from past conflicts in which referenda, territorial claims, or post‑conflict votes were used or proposed? These questions are not abstract. They go to the heart of whether territorial concessions are legally possible and historically realistic, even before one considers whether they are politically desirable. This blog post therefore examines the legal architecture, domestic constitutional constraints, and historical precedents that shape what is and is not possible.
Topic:: International Law, History, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

532. Roundtable Blog: Four Years Since Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion Into Ukraine: What Have We Learned?

Author:: Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: This blogpost is part of the PILPG Lawyering Peace roundtable series. Rather than a traditional co-authored article, it presents a curated set of expert reflections from members of PILPG’s Peace Fellows and Ambassador Circle networks. Marking four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, this roundtable examines how the war has reshaped international law, global security architecture, accountability mechanisms, and our understanding of modern aggression. Anniversaries invite commemoration. This roundtable instead invites assessment. Four years on, the international community possesses insights that were unavailable in the early days of the invasion. The war has tested the resilience of collective defense systems, exposed the limitations and adaptability of international institutions, accelerated transformations in military technology and information warfare, and catalyzed new approaches to sanctions, energy security, and legal accountability. It has also revealed both the extraordinary durability of Ukrainian statehood and the profound human costs of prolonged high-intensity conflict. This collection seeks to move beyond retrospective narrative toward forward-looking analysis. What assumptions proved mistaken? What institutional innovations have emerged? How has the legal framework governing aggression and atrocity crimes evolved under pressure? What lessons should policymakers internalize to deter future wars of aggression? By elevating diverse expert perspectives across disciplines, this roundtable aims to distill the most consequential lessons of the past four years — and to consider how they should inform the future of peacebuilding, deterrence, and the international legal order.
Topic:: Security, International Law, Accountability, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

533. PILPG Roundtable Blog: Creating the Conditions for Peace in 2026 - Expert Perspectives on Ukraine’s Strategic Position and Negotiations

Author:: Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: More than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the debate over Ukraine’s path to a just and durable peace has entered a new phase. Recent developments on the battlefield, renewed diplomatic contacts, and shifts in international support have prompted fresh discussion about Ukraine’s strategic position and the conditions under which negotiations could contribute to a lasting settlement. To continue this conversation, PILPG invited members of its Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group, former senior diplomats, ambassadors, international prosecutors, and leading experts in international law, peace negotiations, and security to share their views on three questions: How should Ukraine’s current strategic position be assessed? When, if at all, should negotiations become a priority? And what should Ukraine’s international partners do now to maximize the prospects for a just and durable peace? While the experts approached these questions from different professional backgrounds, several points of agreement stood out. They broadly agreed that Ukraine’s position is stronger than battlefield maps alone suggest, that negotiations should not come at the expense of continued support, and that lasting peace will require careful preparation long before any final agreement is reached.
Topic:: International Law, Negotiation, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

534. Extraordinary Accession: Why Europe Must Bring Ukraine into the European Union Now

Author:: David M. Crane
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: Europe stands at a geopolitical crossroads. Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has shattered the illusion that the post-Cold War order could be preserved through incrementalism, dialogue, or strategic ambiguity. Moscow is betting quite openly that Europe will hesitate, delay, and ultimately retreat from the historic question of Ukraine’s membership in the European Union. The Kremlin’s strategic calculation is simple: Europe will not bring Ukraine into the EU in the short or medium term, regardless of political declarations or symbolic gestures such as the Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Kyiv in March 2026. This policy paper argues the opposite. Europe must bring Ukraine into the European Union now - not as a conventional accession, not as a “fast track,” but as an extraordinary accession that recognizes the singular nature of Ukraine’s struggle and the existential stakes for Europe itself. Political membership should be granted immediately, with the technical and treaty-based obligations phased in over time. This is not only feasible; it is strategically necessary. Ukraine’s accession would send an unmistakable signal to Russia and the international community: Ukraine is Europe - permanently, irreversibly, and without qualification.
Topic:: International Law, European Union, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

535. PILPG Roundtable Blog Part I: Ukraine’s EU Accession: Perspectives of Enlargement During the War

Author:: Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: This roundtable explores one of the most consequential strategic questions facing Europe today: Ukraine’s accession to the European Union amid an ongoing war of aggression. Building on discussions within the Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG) Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group, this piece brings together expert perspectives on how enlargement policy is being reshaped by geopolitics, security imperatives, and the pursuit of a just and durable peace. Presented under the Lawyering Peace initiative, this roundtable situates EU accession not merely as a technical legal process, but as a defining test of Europe’s political will and strategic identity. As Ukraine continues to defend itself, its European trajectory has become inseparable from broader questions of deterrence, stability, and the future of the European project itself. On 10 April 2026, members of PILPG’s Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group convened to assess the evolving trajectory of Ukraine’s EU accession process. More than a decade after the Maidan protests set Ukraine on its European path, accession now unfolds under radically different conditions: amid full-scale war, shifting transatlantic dynamics, and renewed debates about Europe’s strategic autonomy.
Topic:: International Law, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

536. The Global South and the Russian War on Ukraine: Structural Constraints on Diplomatic Alignment: An assessment of the political, economic, and institutional factors shaping multilateral engagement with Russia's war against Ukraine

Author:: Paul R. Williams
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: Three years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a striking diplomatic gap persists between the breadth of international condemnation and the depth of practical alignment. While 141 states voted in the UN General Assembly to demand Russia's immediate withdrawal in March 2022, the countries that have joined Western-led sanctions regimes, restricted Russian access to their financial systems, or curtailed bilateral trade with Moscow represent a narrower group. That gap is not incidental and it reflects durable structural realities across the Global South that are rooted in economic dependencies, regional security pressures, institutional history, and the architecture of development finance. Understanding those realities is a prerequisite for any realistic assessment of how the conflict's diplomatic landscape might evolve. A related question follows from this analysis: given the structural depth of these constraints, whether Ukraine's diplomatic strategy would be better served by consolidating and sustaining existing Western commitments rather than investing heavily in outreach to states whose non-alignment is unlikely to shift within any operationally relevant timeframe.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Law, Sanctions, Multilateralism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Global South

537. Roundtable Blog: Voting Under Duress — Referenda, Aggression, and the Limits of Democratic Consent

Author:: Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: This post is part of the PILPG Lawyering Justice roundtable series. Rather than a traditional co-authored article, it presents a curated set of expert reflections from members of PILPG’s Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group. Drawing on a closed-door discussion held on 6 February 2026, this roundtable examines one of the most legally and politically fraught questions facing Ukraine: whether a national referendum can play a legitimate role in a peace process shaped by aggression, occupation, and mass displacement. Referenda are commonly understood as the highest expression of democratic will. Yet in contexts defined by coercion and force, democratic instruments themselves may be distorted into tools that legitimise unlawful outcomes. This roundtable explores the legal limits of consent under international law, the precedent-setting risks of post-aggression referenda, and the strategic choices Ukraine faces in navigating popular participation without eroding its sovereignty or the international legal order.
Topic:: International Law, Voting, Referendum, Russia-Ukraine War, and Aggression
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

538. The Edge of Revolution: The 1926 General Strike, 100 Years On

Author:: David Torrance, Carolyn Quinn, Robert Saunders, Sienna Rodgers, and David Torrance
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: One hundred years ago, in May 1926, the Trades Union Congress called Britain’s first and only General Strike. Nearly three million workers downed tools, closing Britain’s docks, railways, mines, much of heavy industry and most of the press. Proclaiming a State of Emergency, the Prime Minister, Stanley Baldwin, claimed that Britain was ‘nearer to civil war than we have been for centuries past’. The Times called it ‘the gravest domestic menace which has hung over this nation since the fall of the Stuarts’. The General Strike lasted only nine days, but its impact was profound. In this centenary event, ‪@MileEndInstitute_QMUL‬ and ‪@qmulsse‬ explored the history of the General Strike, its legacy and the position of organised labour today. To celebrate the publication of a new history of the strike by Dr David Torrance, Carolyn Quinn, Robert Saunders and Sienna Rodgers joined David Torrance to ask why the strike took place, why it failed, and the lessons for the union movement, for direct action groups, and for workers’ rights in our own time.
Topic:: Politics, History, Trade Unions, and General Strike
Political Geography:: Britain and Europe

539. Practical Social Democracy and the Future of the Left

Author:: Jacqui Smith, Anneliese Dodds, and Marc Stears
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: With populism on the march and a Labour government under pressure at Westminster, what is the future of ‘social democracy’? What can governments learn from this political tradition, and what would ‘practical social democracy’ look like in the twenty-first century? In this event, held on 11 June 2026, the ‪Mile End Institute‬ and ‪Queen Mary University of London‬ marked the launch of "Practical Social Democracy" (edited by Magnus Feldmann, Jonas Hinnfors and Mark Wickham-Jones) by inviting Jacqui Smith (Minister for Skills), Anneliese Dodds (Labour MP for Oxford East) and Marc Stears (Director, ‪@UCLPolicyLab‬) to explore the past, present and future of a key political tradition.
Topic:: Government, Politics, Leftist Politics, Social Democracy, and Labour Party
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

540. Fantastic Kingdom: A Stranger's Notes on a Contrary Country

Author:: Helene von Bismarck and Robert Saunders
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Global yet insular, tolerant yet suspicious, proudly pragmatic yet profoundly sentimental. The United Kingdom inspires fierce loyalty and endless argument. Ten years after Brexit, it is as divided as ever. After twenty years of studying Britain, German historian Helene von Bismarck offered an affectionate and insightful portrait of the United Kingdom as seen by an outsider. From the enduring fantasy of Britain as a self-sufficient island to the profound devotion to a global monarchy; from imperial amnesia to modern multiculturalism, she explored the paradoxes and myths that shape British identity.
Topic:: Imperialism, History, Multiculturalism, Brexit, Monarchy, and Identity
Political Geography:: Britain and United Kingdom

541. Triumph and Trauma: The British General Election of 2024

Author:: Tim Bale, Paula Surridge, and Stephen Bush
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: On 4 July 2024, an electoral tsunami ripped through British politics. Labour won one of the largest landslides in its history, on the lowest share of the vote of any majority government. The Conservatives suffered their worst defeat in 200 years, the Liberal Democrats secured their best-ever result, the SNP were crushed and Reform UK won 4 million votes. Six independent MPs were elected, including the former Labour Leader, Jeremy Corbyn, and the combined vote-share of the big two parties was the lowest since 1918. For Labour, the result marked a stunning turnaround from the previous election in 2019; yet commentators quickly began to speak of a ‘sandcastle majority’, that might in turn be washed away by the next electoral tide. In this event, to mark the publication of The British General Election of 2024, Queen Mary University of London‬'s Prof Tim Bale and Prof Paula Surridge were joined by Stephen Bush, Associate Editor of the Financial Times, and Rachel Cunliffe, Associate Political Editor of the New Statesman, to look back on a landmark election. They asked why 2024 saw a historic Conservative collapse, a “loveless landslide” for Labour and record fragmentation in voters’ choices and considered whether this momentous election marked the end of two-party politics in Britain.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Voting, Labour Party, and Conservative Party
Political Geography:: Britain and Europe

542. Beyond the Iron Curtain: Prof Patrick Porter and Sophia Gaston

Author:: Patrick Porter and Sophia Gaston
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: 5 March 2026 marks the eightieth anniversary of Winston Churchill's landmark address in Fulton, Missouri. We remember it as the "Iron Curtain" speech, in which Churchill called the United States and the West to the barricades against Soviet communism. Today's Atlanticists might be tempted to see it as a monument to greater days, of transatlantic cooperation, moral clarity and solidarity between democracies. But the title of the speech was "The Sinews of Peace." Churchill used it not just to sound a note of alarm about Moscow, but to appeal for something constructive, urging America to accept the baton of leadership over the Old World. He spoke to an America he feared was erratic, ruthless and unreliable. His speech divided Americans, for whom the very notion of an alliance with Britain was still contentious. In this lecture, Professor Patrick Porter (Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham, and the author of Blunder: Britain's War in Iraq) and Sophia Gaston marked 80 years since Churchill’s momentous address. Can his speech help Europe and the United States renegotiate their ‘special’ relationship under today's darkening sky?
Topic:: Cold War, Transatlantic Relations, Soviet Union, and Winston Churchill
Political Geography:: Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, and United States of America

543. Kate Adie: 'A Life in Reporting'

Author:: Kate Adie and Robert Saunders
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: In the Mile End Institute's fifth distinguished Hennessy Lecture, Kate Adie joined ‪Queen Mary University of London's very own ‪Robert Saunders‬ to reflect on her long career as a reporter and explored the challenges facing a reporter in a changing world today. Kate Adie was Chief News Correspondent for BBC News from 1989 to 2003, becoming one of the most famous and respected figures in British journalism. She reported live from the Iranian Embassy Siege in 1980, the US bombing of Tripoli in 1986 and the Lockerbie bombing of 1988. She was at Tiananmen Square in 1989, was shot by a Libyan army commander and reported on the Gulf War and the war in the former Yugoslavia. She has been a freelance journalist since 2003 and presents "From Our Own Correspondent" on BBC Radio 4 and was awarded the CBE in 2018 for services to journalism. She has written five books including "The Kindness of Strangers”, an account of her work as a reporter, "Nobody's Child: The Lives of Abandoned Children" which formed the basis of the BBC series, Found, and "Fighting on the Home Front: The Legacy of Women in World War One".
Topic:: Media, Journalism, Career, and Book Talk
Political Geography:: Britain, China, Iran, Libya, and Yugoslavia

544. "We Know How to Win": Words of Defiance from Ukraine

Author:: Dmytro Kuleba, Bjorn Berge, and Olesya Khromeychuk
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: On Friday 24 April, the Centre for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies at ‪Queen Mary University of London‬ welcomed Dmytro Kuleba, the former Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister of Ukraine, and Bjorn Berge (Deputy Secretary General, Council of Europe) to celebrate the publication of an important account of the war in Ukraine. In this event, in association with the ‪Mile End Institute‬, Kuleba and Berge were joined by Dr Olesya Khromeychuk (‪@UkrainianInstituteLondon‬) and the international lawyer, writer and filmmaker Philippe Sands KC to discuss Berge's new book, Words of Defiance, which combines Kuleba's wartime speeches with a rare and authoritative account of how the war in Ukraine unfolded on the world stage. Our distinguished panel explored why Russia chose invasion, how the war has progressed, how to counter propaganda and disinformation, and whether there is a still a path to lasting peace.
Topic:: Propaganda, Disinformation, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

545. Reforming the Jury System: Speeding up Justice or Ending 800 Years of Liberty?

Author:: Kay Crosby, Hannah Quirk, Rebecca Helm, and Robert Saunders
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: In December, the government announced plans to abolish trial by jury for crimes with a sentence of less than three years. Critics spoke of an end to 800-years of the right to trial by one's peers; supporters warned of a collapse in the criminal justice system if radical action were not taken. In this webinar, the ‪Mile End Institute‬ at ‪Queen Mary University of London‬ brought together historians, lawyers and politicians to explore the challenges facing the court system and the options for change. Dr Kay Crosby (University of Newcastle), Dr Hannah Quirk (King's College London) and Professor Rebecca Helm (University of Exeter) joined Dr Robert Saunders to assess the strengths and weaknesses of jury trials in Britain and overseas, examine the surprising history of the jury system and test the science behind jury-decision making.
Topic:: Reform, Criminal Justice, Judiciary, Decision-Making, and Jury
Political Geography:: Britain and Europe

546. The Inside Story of the Campaign for a Second EU Referendum

Author:: Morgan Jones, Matthew Holehouse, Emily Robinson, and Michael Chessum
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: On 19 March 2026, the ‪Mile End Institute‬ and ‪Queen Mary University of London celebrated the publication of Morgan Jones’s new book, No Second Chances: The Inside Story of the Campaign for a Second Referendum. In this event, we brought together academics, campaigners, journalists and the author herself to explore the campaign for a second referendum after 2016, the ‘People’s Vote’ movement and the massive demonstrations of 2018-2019. Matthew Holehouse (The Economist), Prof Emily Robinson (The Politics of Feeling in Brexit Britain) and Michael Chessum (This Is Only The Beginning: The Making of a New Left) joined Morgan Jones to ask how and why these campaigns tried to stop Brexit, why they were unsuccessful, and what lessons might be learned for the future.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Brexit, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:: Britain and Europe

547. Citizenship on Pause? The Ambiguities Surrounding Termination of Citizenship in India

Author:: Kalyani Ramnath
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: In the past year, several writ petitions around the question of citizenship involving the children of former Indian citizens and refugees in India have come up before the appellate courtsof India. These legal developments are taking place amidstongoing efforts to revise voter rolls in Bihar, construct citizenship registers in Assam, and create a fluctuating hierarchy of identity documents across the country that have had a disproportionate impact on the most vulnerable sections of society: migrant workers, religious minorities and refugees among others.1These developments,many of which have been previously covered in the pages of theStatelessness and CitizenshipReview,highlight the seemingly impossible choices that face those applying for, resuming or exercising Indian citizenship. They also show that Indian citizenship —understood as a source of formal legal status but also as a conduit for rights, a means of shaping one’s social and cultural identities and as a moral claim about belonging —remains unsettled with consequences for families across multiple generations. The petitions to be discussed highlight legal questions of increasing importance to descendants of former Indian citizens, but also of more generalimportancegiven the changes towards increasingly restrictive citizenship, visa and residence regimes globally. Crucially,under what circumstances does Indian citizenship automatically cease? In what cases does citizenship ‘pause’and ‘resume’? What are the implications of citizenship that is paused?The legal regime relating to citizenship in India is governed by the provisions of the 1950 Constitutionof India (‘Constitution’),2the 1955 Citizenship Act(‘Citizenship Act’)3and rules made under the latter by the Central Governmentof India.4Specific dates, years and durations (eg, 1950,51987,62024,7five years,8seven years,9and so on) govern acquisition, retention, resumption, and termination of citizenship. Articles 5, 6, 7 and 8 came into force prior to the rest of the Constitutionto address the displacements occasioned by the 1947 Partition into India and Pakistan, noting that everyone who was ordinarily resident in the territory of India was an Indian citizen at the time of the commencement of the Constitution.10Under the aegis of art 11 of the Constitution, the Parliament enacted the Citizenship Actwhich created provisions for citizenship by naturalisation, registration and incorporation of territory.11Dual citizenship was not permitted.12The continuing ambiguities of India’s citizenship regime relate to intersections between the Citizenship Actitself,and adjacent regimes relating to the issuance of a passport. The Citizenship Actlays out provisions for the acquisition of citizenship which, like much citizenship and immigration legislation all over the world, feature time limits. Naturalisation could be initiated after a period of five years of continuous residence,13registration as an Indian citizen born abroad was possible for up to one year after birth, and so on. Termination of citizenship is also subject to term limits. Under s 8, a child’s Indian citizenship is automatically terminated when a parent who is an Indian citizen renounces their citizenship. However, the child’s citizenship can be resumed within one year of turning eighteen.14Although the systemic disadvantages faced by those trying to acquire, retain and recognise their Indian citizenship have been studied, the petitions discussed in the following sections illustrate how provisionsrelating to automatic cessation of citizenship can createsystemic disadvantages,and even de facto statelessness in cases where families have moved across international borders from or into India.
Topic:: Law, Children, Citizenship, and Citizenship Termination
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

548. Nagoya High Court, Decision, Reiwa 6 Nen (Ra), No 431 (11 September 2024)

Author:: Hajime Akiyama
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Japan is not a contracting party to either the 1954 Convention relating to the Status of Stateless Persons1or to the 1961 Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness.2It also does not have a systematic determination mechanism for determining the status of stateless persons.3However, statelessness, or being ‘without nationality’, is an important matter in Japanese nationality law.4Article2 of the Japanese Nationality Act(‘Nationality Act’)provides for the method to acquire nationality by birth.5It follows the jus sanguinisprinciple, so that children acquire Japanese nationality if at least one of the parents is a Japanese national. In addition, art 2(iii) of the Nationality Actintroduces the jus soliprinciple for limited circumstances. A child acquires Japanese nationality ‘if the childwas born in Japan, either both of the parents are unknown or if known, both of them are without nationality’.6In this context, the interpretation of ‘without nationality’is important because it determines whether children acquire Japanese nationality.In 2024, a decision related to the interpretation of the words ‘without nationality’was made in the Nagoya High Court(‘Court’).7In this case(‘Afghan Case’), a child (‘the Appellant’) was born in Japan in 2022 to Afghan parents. Initially, the parents were regarded as possessing Afghan nationality, so the child did not acquire Japanese nationality. However, in 2021, the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, leading to the collapse of the former government. The de facto authorities were not recognised by many governments, including Japan. Based on this background, the Court stated that parents from Afghanistan should be regarded as ‘without nationality’and, as a result, the child born to these parents should acquire Japanese nationality.8This case is the first one of its kind.9It can be regarded as a positive example from the perspectives of human rights and the right to a nationality. However, the Court’s ruling raises questions about the interpretation of the recognition of statehood and government under international law.
Topic:: International Law, Courts, Nationality, Statelessness, and Jus Sanguinis
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

549. Faslliu And Rexha V Albania: The Right to Birth Registration Under the ICCPR

Author:: Clara Van Thillo
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: On 29 October 2024, the United Nations (‘UN’) Human Rights Committee (‘Committee’) considered the right to birth registration under art 24(2) of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights(‘ICCPR’) for the first time in Daniel Faslliu, Marjeldo Rexha and Haijrije Rexha v Albania (‘Faslliu and Rexha’).1The case concerned the refusal by the Albanian authorities to register the births of three Roma children who had been born abroad, putting them at risk of statelessness and hampering their access to basic rights and services, including education and healthcare.2The Committee found violations of the rights to birth registration, to acquire a nationality, to be recognised as a person before the law and the prohibition of discrimination based on ethnicity.3Birth registration is essential for establishing children’s legal identity, as it records place of birth, parentage and often, nationality.4Despite its critical importance, millions of children worldwide5—including in Europe —6remain unregistered. Children born into Roma communities are particularly vulnerable, since they often live in poverty and irregular conditions stemming from systemic and longstanding discrimination.7Recognising the importance of birth registration, the Committee found that without it individuals remain legally invisible and that upholding these rights is paramount to enjoy other socio-economic rights.8Notwithstanding some remaining questions in the decision, in particular the determination of statelessness, the Committee took an important step on the road to securing legal identity for all.9
Topic:: United Nations, Roma, Nationality, Statelessness, Birth Registration, and ICCPR
Political Geography:: Europe and Albania

550. Hierarchies of Statelessness in Germany

Author:: Kauther Alhusainy, Margarida Farinha, Wala' Hussam Maaitah, and Aleksandra Semeriak Gavrilenok
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: This article argues that the categorisation practice of ‘undetermined nationality’ produces a hierarchy of statelessness that results in the inadequate fulfilment of Germany’s international obligations to protect stateless people. This categorisation practice is maintained through the absence of a statelessness determination procedure, discriminatory legal frameworks and problematic discretionary administrative practices. The article draws on eight semi-structured, in-depth interviews conducted in March and April 2024 with people with lived experience of statelessness in Germany. It illustrates how different categories of statelessness affect individuals in their everyday self-realisation, career prospects, wellbeing and political participation. It offers testimonies from different generations of stateless individuals, evidencing how statelessness is not a static legal anomaly, but a dynamic, bureaucratically and legally manufactured spectrum of legal stratification and exclusion. These testimonies also show that if Germany does not implement a statelessness determination procedure it will continue to avoid its responsibilities, failing to comply with international obligations and contributing to human rights violations.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Nationality, and Statelessness
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS