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14561. Bosnia's Stalled Police Reform: No Progress, No EU

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The international strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina risks derailment. It consists entirely of preparing the country for eventual European Union (EU) membership in the hope that integration processes will overcome ethno-political divides and their intertwined economic and criminal interests. However, the police reform needed to begin negotiations on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU appears hopelessly blocked. With integration stalled, the international community will have to maintain its High Representative in Sarajevo for at least two to three years, if not longer, to head off dangers of new conflict unless it acts decisively in the next several weeks to confront the chief obstacles to reform: the main Bosnian Serb political party and the Belgrade government of Prime Minister Vojis lav Kostunica.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

14562. Élections au Burundi: Reconfiguration radicale du paysage politique

Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Les élections générales au Burundi viennent de conduire à une transformation totale du paysage politique. La victoire remarquable de l ' ancienne rébellion du CNDD-FDD à tous les différents scrutins et l ' élection de son candidat à la présidentielle, Pierre Nkurunziza, le 19 août lui permettent dorénavant de contrôler les principales institutions du pouvoir. En outre ce changement politique important s ' inscrit dans un contexte où les corps de défense et de sécurité sont en profonde mutation et les anciens combattants du CNDD-FDD sont totalement intégrés dans ces nouvelles forces au sein desquelles ils occupent 40 pour cent des effectifs. Cela constitue une garantie substantielle contre d ' éventuelles tentatives de coup de force pour interrompre la poursuite de ce processus et donc la mise en oeuvre des réformes prévues par l ' accord d ' Arusha pour la paix et la réconciliation. Néanmoins les élections ne représentent qu ' un pas, certes important, vers une paix durable.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

14563. Collective Bargaining Practices in Eastern Europe: Case Study Evidence from Romania

Author:
Aurora Trif
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
There are several studies on recent developments in collective bargaining in Eastern Europe, but there is still a debate about the extent to which collective bargaining practices resemble those in continental Western Europe. This paper aims to contribute to this debate, by examining primary data on collective bargaining practices in Romania using an actor-centred institutionalist approach. It focuses on collective bargaining in four large chemical companies. Comparisons are made to other countries in order to highlight the developments in Romanian cases. Unexpectedly, the study's findings point to an increase in state intervention in establishing the terms and conditions of employment after 1989, due to the state’s new roles during the transformation process that affected job security. The study suggests a considerable increase in the influence of top managers in determining pay and working conditions, while trade unions retained the considerable influence over social benefits in large companies. The findings show continuance of certain pre-1989 practices, such as a persistence of high state intervention and a limited independence of the trade unions from the management. This paper contributes to a deeper understanding of institutional changes in the context of a shift from a centrally planned economy to a market-based economy.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Romania

14564. No Exit from the Joint Decision Trap? Can German Federalism Reform Itself?

Author:
Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The unique institutions that make up Germany's "unitary federal state," long considered part of the country's post-war success story, are now generally perceived as a "joint-decision trap" impeding effective policy responses to new economic and demographic challenges at both levels of government. Nevertheless, a high-powered bicameral Commission set up in the fall of 2003 failed to reach agreement on constitutional reforms. The paper analyzes the misguided procedural and substantive choices that led to this failure, and it discusses the possibility of asymmetric constitutional solutions that might enhance the capacity for autonomous action at both levels.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

14565. Strategic Unionism in Eastern Europe: The Case of Romania

Author:
Aurora Trif and Karl Koch
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The shift from centrally planned economies to market-oriented economic models presented trade unions in Eastern European countries with crucial choices in relation to their roles as industrial relations actors. This paper investigates whether (and why) unions have chosen adversarial and/or co-operative relationships with the employers, based on a strategic choice conceptual framework. It focuses on trade union relations with employers at national, sectoral and company levels in Romania. It is argued that adversarial and co-operative relations between unions and employers developed simultaneously after 1989, but co-operation was the prevalent approach. Evidence suggests that ideological legacies, former institutions and the initial decision to participate in the macroeconomic transformation played a key role in shaping unions' choices towards co-operation with employers. Although this paper confirms the widespread view that labour is rather weak in Eastern Europe, it indicates that unions can be proactive and shape their own future if they have the capacity to mobilise their members and union leaders have the skills and willingness to use both conflict and co-operation in their relationships with employers. The comparison of evidence from Romania with other Eastern European countries reflects on the stage of Romanian transformation and also illustrates a wider possible applicability of the theoretical framework employed for the study.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Romania

14566. Economic Reform and the Political Economy of the German Welfare State

Author:
Wolfgang Streeck and Christine Trampusch
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The key to economic reform in Germany is a significant reduction in the high costs of labour.The main factor driving up German labour costs is the funding of the extensive German welfare state through social insurance contributions that in effect operate like payroll taxes on employment. The paper discusses the political causes of the rise in non-wage labour costs since the 1970s. It then proceeds to show how a variety of opportunities for political blockade in the German political economy dim the prospect for effective reform in the foreseeable future.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

14567. Sources and Effectiveness of Financial Development: What We Know and What We Need to Know

Author:
Panicos O. Demetriades and Svetlana Andrianova
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Drawing on recent literature, the paper argue s that institutions and political economy factors hold the key to understanding why some countries have succeeded in developing their financial systems while others have not. The paper also reviews new evidence which suggests that institutional quality may influence the effectiveness of financial development in delivering economic growth. These new findings highlight the possibility that poor countries may be stuck in a bad equilibrium, in which weak institutions inhibit growth both directly and indirectly, through under-developed, low- quality finance. In addition, the paper identifies a number of unanswered questions in the financial development literature, including the precise role of important institutions like law in finance, and the influence of geographical factors.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Third World

14568. The Poverty Macroeconomic Policy Nexus: Some Short-run Analytics

Author:
George Mavrotas and S. Mansoob Murshed
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The present paper utilises a short-run theoretical macroeconomic model of a small open economy to look at the impact of macroeconomic policies and financial deepening upon poverty through sectoral changes. This is because an expansion in certain sectors may cause greater poverty reduction. The model involves a non-traded and a traded sector on the formal side of the economy. The former is more capital intensive and the latter more unskilled labour intensive. Increased employment in the traded sector is more pro-poor compared to a similar rise in the non-traded sector as the former draws workers out of poverty in the informal sector. The model in our paper analyses short-run effects of devaluation, a rise in the money supply induced by financial deepening, and taxation to discourage non-traded goods consumption. Financial deepening can induce greater output and reduce poverty. Other results are mixed and taxonomic. We also attempt to differentiate between the stylised experiences of East Asia and Latin America. East Asian economies have relied more heavily on labour-intensive manufactured exports, whereas Latin America has had a relatively greater share of capital intensive and natural resource based exports. In recent decades countries in these two regions have had differing experiences in poverty reduction, with poverty arguably declining more in East Asia.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
East Asia and Latin America

14569. Does Financial Openness Promote Economic Integration? Some Evidence from Europe and the CIS

Author:
Fabrizio Carmignani and Abdur Chowdhury
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We study whether financial openness facilitates the economic integration of formerly centrally planned economies with the EU- 15. Two dimensions of economic integration are considered: cross-country convergence of per-capita incomes and bilateral trade in goods and services. We find that more financially open economies effectively catch-up faster and trade more with the EU-15. These integration-enhancing effects occur over and above any effect stemming from domestic financial deepening and other factors determining growth and trade.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

14570. The Effects of (within and with EU) Regional Integration: Impact on Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility, Institutional Quality and Growth for MENA Countries

Author:
Iftekhar Hasan and Leonardo Becchetti
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We analyse two potential effects arising from regional (and with EU) integration—increased quality of institutions (including the quality of financial institutions) and, economic policies and reduced multilateral exchange rate volatility— in a conditional convergence growth framework for MENA countries. To this purpose we outline an ad hoc methodology which implements the traditional bilateral exchange rate measures to test effects of multilateral exchange rate volatility on growth of per capita GDP. Our estimates show that both factors (quality of institutions and reduction of multilateral volatility) significantly and positively affect growth and conditional convergence. We observe that MENA countries are not far from EU and OECD countries in terms of exchange rate volatility, but much below in terms of institutional quality. We finally simulate the potential effects of an improvement in institutional quality in MENA countries on their process of growth and conditional convergence. We conclude arguing that regional integration may be highly beneficial for such countries, mainly because of its effects on institutional quality.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe