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701. Constructing Quality: Producer Power, Market Organization, and the Politics of High Value-Added Markets.

Author:
Elizabeth Carter
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Economists assume increased producer flexibility creates production advantages. So why do inefficient French quality wine producers dominate their flexible, efficient Italian counterparts? French AOC wine producers created “corporatist” producer organizations which served three purposes: encouraged increased product quality information across the supply chain; allowed for the emergence of a unique production style; and enabled producers to define their production methods as “quality” via state regulation. Italian DOC wine producers have fragmented political structures at both the regional and national levels, causing producers to rely more on the price mechanism and less on political structures to coordinate supply chain transactions. Market asymmetries persist across the supply chain, making it difficult for producers to guarantee quality and adversely shaping their potential production and brand strategies. Solving supply chain problems through representative political institutions yields superior economic outcomes than uncoordinated market transactions because the former corrects market power asymmetries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Politics, and Regulation
Political Geography:
France, Italy, and Global Focus

702. Quality of Government and the Relationship between Natural Disasters and Child Poverty: A Comparative Analysis.

Author:
Adel Daoud, Bjorn Hallerod, and Debarati Guha Sapir
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
This paper explores the degree to which exposure to reoccurring natural disasters of various kinds explains seven dimensions of severe child poverty in 67 middle- and low-income countries. It also analyzes how certain institutional conditions, namely the quality of government (QoG), have moderating effects on the relationship between disasters and child poverty. Two main hypotheses are tested. The first is that disasters do have an adverse average effect on severe poverty. The second is that disasters reveal a positive coefficient (i.e., more disasters, more deprivation) but that higher levels of QoG negatively moderate this effect, i.e., the adverse effect of disasters is diminished by increasingly high QoG levels. From 70 possible combinations of relationships (7 types of deprivation combined with 10 types of natural disaster measures), 11 have the expected correlation between disasters and child deprivation and only one has the expected interactive correlation between quality of government, disasters, and child poverty. Several unexpected results could also be observed which are discussed in the paper along with recommendations for future research.
Topic:
Economics, Natural Disasters, Governance, Research, and Child Poverty
Political Geography:
Global Focus

703. The Enduring Importance of Family Wealth: Evidence from the Forbes 400, 1982 to 2013

Author:
Philip Korom, Mark Lutter, and Jens Beckert
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The social science literature proposes two competing explanatory frameworks for the existence and longevity of super-fortunes: superstar or winner-take-all mechanisms, suggesting an increased dominance of new self-made billionaires; and mechanisms focusing on inherited advantages, suggesting an enduring importance of old family fortunes. Using panel data from the USA’s annual Forbes 400 ranking (1982–2013), this study analyzes factors that increase or decrease the likelihood of remaining listed among the American super-rich. We find initially that the percentages of self-made entrepreneurs among the highest wealth echelons of US society have increased significantly since 1982. Sectors that improved the most are finance (including hedge funds and private equity), new technology and mass retail. The decline of inheritance as a source of wealth and the rise of new tech and finance fortunes suggest low reproduction rates among superrich property owners. Family wealth, however, plays an important role if the longevity of fortunes is considered. While the literature predicts family fortunes to be taxed away, divided among a large number of heirs, or lost through incompetence, we find that scions of inherited great wealth (mostly up to the third generation) are more likely to remain listed in the Forbes 400 roster than self-made entrepreneurs. We conclude that even though entrepreneurship increasingly matters for becoming super-rich, it is first and foremost the ability of rich family dynasties to retain control over corporations and to access sophisticated financial advice that makes fortunes last.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Social Stratification, and Landpower
Political Geography:
United States of America

704. Players and New Rules of the Game Politics as Organized Combat: New in Sweden.

Author:
Stefan Svallfors
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
As Hacker and Pierson (2010) have observed, politics is primarily organization: “organized combat.” To understand the outcomes of politics, we have to look at how it is organized over time: by whom and with what resources? I take Sweden as an example of how politics as organized combat has changed quite dramatically in recent decades. Sweden is often cited as an opposite to the United States among the rich capitalist countries, but it has experienced many encompassing policy changes which have not received the attention they deserve. The paper specifies how Swedish organized politics has changed fundamentally, including the dismantling of corporatist arrangements, changes in the economic policy decision-making framework, increased income inequality, weakened political parties and changes in their social bases, the decline of blue-collar union strength, the growth of the policy professionals category, the increased impact of multilevel politics, and the mediatization of politics. Today’s amorphous, invisible mode of elite-driven policy-making diverges greatly from the old corporatist structures and is accompanied by dramatically increasing inequality. Even in Sweden, the impact of money on politics has become stronger. The paper discusses what this implies for current politics and policy-making in Sweden.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Sweden and United States of America

705. Keeping EU-Asia Reengagement on Track

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The relationship between the European Union (EU) and Asia is in flux. The EU intensified its economic ties to Asia and boosted its security cooperation in the region in 2011 and 2012. But new challenges, including the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, have made it difficult to sustain this incipient momentum. There are a number of steps that EU and Asian governments can and should take to continue to strengthen their relations.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia

706. The Resolution of Systematically Important Financial Institutions: Lessons from Fannie and Freddie

Author:
Mark A. Calabria
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
There was perhaps no issue of greater importance to the financial regulatory reforms of 2010 than the resolution, without taxpayer assistance, of large financial institutions. The rescue of firms such as AIG shocked the public conscience and provided the political force behind the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act. Such is reflected in the fact that Titles I and II of Dodd-Frank relate to the identification and resolution of large financial entities. How the tools established in Titles I and II are implemented are paramount to the success of Dodd-Frank. This paper attempts to gauge the likely success of these tools via the lens of similar tools created for the resolution of the housing government sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Reform

707. What Might the Kremlin's Setback Bring in 2015?

Author:
Elizabeth Pond
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In the Ukraine crisis, soft economic power last month trumped hard military power for the first time. The threatened meltdown of the Russian economy could push Russian President Vladimir Putin to dial down his undeclared war on Ukraine in return for some easing of Western financial sanctions. Still, that is not assured.
Topic:
Economics and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

708. Pivot 2.0

Author:
Victor D. Cha, Michael J. Green, and Nicholas Szechenyi
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Opinion surveys demonstrate that a majority of Americans consider Asia the most important region to U.S. interests and a majority of Asian experts support the Obama administration's goal of a “pivot” or “rebalance” to the Asia-Pacific region.1 Yet doubts have also grown about whether the pivot can be sustained by a president politically weakened by the 2014 midterm results, constrained by budget sequestration, and pulled into crises from Ukraine to Iraq and Iran. On issues from immigration to Cuba policy, the Obama administration and the incoming Republican Congress appear set for confrontation. Yet Asia policy remains largely bipartisan—perhaps the most bipartisan foreign policy issue in Washington. It is therefore critical—and practical— to ask that the White House and the Republican leadership in the Congress chart a common course on policy toward Asia for the next two years. This report outlines concrete areas for action on trade, China, defense, Korea, India, and Southeast Asia.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Asia

709. Iran’s Economic Reintegration: Sanctions Relief, Energy, and Economic Growth Under a Nuclear Agreement with Iran

Author:
Elizabeth Rosenberg and Sara Vakhshouri
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
The international community is poised to sign a deal with Iran on its nuclear program, under which Iran would make concessions on its enrichment activities and the United States and others would offer substantial relief from punishing economic sanctions. The removal of the most complex, extensive, and multilateral regime of coercive economic measures promises a windfall to Iran. However, this will be neither immediate nor easy, given the difficulty of reestablishing severed commercial and legal ties between Iran and the global financial system. Removing sanctions will require careful international cooperation and substantial outreach to the private sector.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Treaties and Agreements, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

710. Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization: A Primer

Author:
Phillip Carter and Katherine Kidder
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Military, Veterans, and Society Program Director Phillip Carter and Research Associate Katherine Kidder examine the growth of military compensation in the post-Cold War era, from 1990 to 2015, as well as the social contract America has with its All-Volunteer Force, and the ways in which monetary compensation should be considered as part of a broader talent management strategy for the armed forces. The policy brief presents an opportunity for the nation to assess its social contract with the All-Volunteer Force and adjust (if necessary) to meet the national interest and sustain its most critical national security asset.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Labor Issues, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
United States

711. Implementing the Forest Rights Act: Lack of political will?

Author:
Oomen C. Kurian and Pooja Parvati
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Historically, usage of and access to forest resources by India’s Adivasi community and other forest dwellers have been considered encroachment and their efforts to acquire forest land have been used as evidence of their anti-development attitude. Government policy has continued to deny them legal rights to use, manage and conserve forest resources and to hold forest lands that they have been residing on and cultivating. In 2006, the passage of the Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dweller’s (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act (hereafter FRA) tried to make amends by recognizing the customary rights of forest dwellers, including the right over common areas and the right to manage and sell forest produce. However, the overall implementation of FRA still suffers from inadequate community awareness; conflicting legislation; the lack of a dedicated structure for implementation and devoted staff; administrative roadblocks to smooth processing of claims; and a governance deficit.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Human Welfare, Politics, Natural Disasters, and Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

712. Just Enough, Just in Time: Improving Sovereign Debt Restructuring for Creditors, Debtors and Citizens

Author:
Richard Gitlin and Brett House
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Recent international financial turmoil — most notably in Greece — has refocused attention on the risks posed by severe sovereign debt crises and weaknesses in our approaches to restructuring sovereign debt. Since early 2010, these risks have driven a range of debt-related policy proposals and actions in individual economies, across regions and at the international financial institutions. While some incremental first reform steps have been taken, these have not yet produced a more efficient, effective or resilient international framework for handling severe sovereign debt crises and effecting sovereign debt workouts. In contrast, some institutional and policy changes made in the heat of the euro-zone crisis have raised as many questions as they have resolved. Old policy ideas are also being resurrected and configured in new ways for current challenges. After years of substantial fiscal stimulus and exceptional monetary policies, high debt burdens across the advanced economies, fears of secular stagnation, signs of an imminent increase in US borrowing costs and deteriorating demographics together make a compelling case for concerted action to improve international arrangements for dealing with distressed sovereign debt.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

713. Corporate Debt in Emerging Economies: A Threat to Financial Stability?

Author:
Barry Eichengreen, Domenico Lombardi, Malcolm D. Knight, Yu Yongding, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Diane De Gramont, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Phillip R. Lane, Ugo Panizza, and Viral V. Acharya
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
During 1999-2007, the international balance sheets of emerging economies grew stronger through a combination of current account surpluses, a shift from debt funding to equity funding, and the stockpiling of liquid foreign reserves. This risk-mitigating strategy improved the international financial standing of many emerging economies and helped these economies withstand the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. However, a combination of domestic and external factors has led to a partial reversal of this strategy, with some emerging economies accumulating significant external debt since 2010. Previewed by the May 2013 “taper tantrum,” there has been considerable speculation that a tightening of dollar-funding conditions and a macroeconomic slowdown in emerging economies may result in financial instability in some emerging economies.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

714. Next Steps for the G20: Turkey 2015

Author:
Paul Martin, Thomas A. Bernes, Olaf Weber, Hongying Wang, and Kevin Carmichael
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
On November 15-16, 2015, leaders of the world's major advanced and emerging economies will meet in Antalya, Turkey for the G20 summit. In this special report, CIGI experts present their perspectives and policy analysis on the key priorities facing the G20 at Antalya. The Right Honourable Paul Martin states that the multilateral institutions created to make globalization work should be a G20 priority. Thomas A. Bernes asks whether G20 leaders and the institutions that support them can articulate a “policy upgrade” that brings more credibility than last year’s Brisbane Action Plan. Olaf Weber argues that the next step for the G20 should be the development of policies and guidelines that help to manage climate change and financial risk in a prudential way. Hongying Wang examines China's rare opportunity as it assumes the presidency of the G20 to push for collective new thinking on how to establish a less fragmented and more coherent global framework for investment governance that balances the interests of different stakeholders. Finally, Kevin Carmichael suggests that the G20 should elevate gender balance to the top of its agenda.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Governance, G20, Financial Markets, and Turkey
Political Geography:
Global Focus

715. Capital Controls and Implications for Surveillance and Coordination: Brazil and Latin America

Author:
Marcio Garcia
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
From 2009 until 2011, Brazil utilized capital controls to deter real exchange rate appreciation. These measures may have obstructed necessary changes in the fiscal policy stance from occurring. In Chile, which employed capital controls heavily in the 1990s and then decided not to use them again during the commodity super-boom in the 2000s, suggests that an adequate fiscal policy stance provides better results than the use of capital controls. In addition, the recent experiences of Colombia and Peru demonstrate capital controls are not always necessary. This paper makes recommendations for capital control surveillance and coordination, using the Brazilian experience as an example, and draws on experiences in other Latin American countries. When analyzing the implications for surveillance and coordination, international institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund, should take into consideration that, no matter how many caveats are listed before its guidelines, capital controls mainly serve to bypass needed changes in macroeconomic policy, thereby jeopardizing economic performance.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

716. Submission to Ontario’s Climate Change Discussion Paper 2015

Author:
Oonagh Fitzgerald, Karima Bawa, David Estrin, Kent Howe, Dean MacDougall, Myra J. Tawfik, Basil Ugochukwu, and Bassem Awad
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The International Law Research Program (ILRP) of the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) congratulates the Province of Ontario’s Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change for launching a province-wide public consultation process — Ontario’s Climate Change Discussion Paper 2015 — in relation to an issue of global importance and urgency for Ontarians and Canadians alike, at a time when nations need to galvanize their subnationals, climate experts, civil society, business and industry to commit to intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change. The CIGI ILRP is optimistic that through this provincial consultation process and implementation of the best ideas it generates, as well as through Ontario’s initiatives undertaken in collaboration with other provinces and foreign subnationals, Canadians will be able to prove to the world our commitment to make a meaningful contribution to achieving an ambitious, verifiable and enforceable international agreement on climate change in December 2015 in Paris. By proactively addressing climate change now, the Government of Ontario positions this province, its citizens, universities and businesses to be innovators for sustainable prosperity rather than victims of global environmental and economic crisis.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Canada

717. The Digital Trade Imbalance and Its Implications for Internet Governance

Author:
Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Today, information is currency; it facilitates productivity, exchange, technology and trade. Information is also the building block of the digital economy (an economy based on digital technologies — products and services that facilitate the creation, storage, analysis and sharing of data and information). Although many countries are gaining expertise and market share, one country, the United States, dominates both the global digital economy and digital trade (commerce in products and services delivered via the Internet). The United States is also the key force behind efforts to develop a system of trade rules to govern cross-border information flows.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Mass Media, and Digital Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

718. From Catching Up to Forging Ahead: China’s Policies for Semiconductors

Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
China, the world's leading exporter of electronic products, faces a fundamental dilemma. It is the largest and fastest-growing market for semiconductors, the core component of those electronics products. Yet, at least 80 percent of the semiconductors used in China's electronics products must be imported. As a result, China's trade deficit in semiconductors has more than doubled since 2005 and now exceeds the huge amount it spends on crude oil imports. To correct this unsustainable imbalance, China's new strategy to upgrade its semiconductor industry seeks to move from catching up to forging ahead in semiconductors. The strategy calls for simultaneously strengthening advanced manufacturing and innovation capabilities in China's integrated circuit (IC) design industry and its domestic IC fabrication, primarily through foundry services. Drawing on policy documents and interviews with China-based industry experts, this study takes a close look at the objectives, strategy, and implementation policies of China's new push in semiconductors and examines what this implies for China's prospects in this industry. The study shows that China's new policy resorts to private equity investment rather than subsidy as the tool of industrial policy. The government participates in equity investment and claims it will do so without intervening in management decisions. This policy is expected to reduce the cost of investment funds for a selected group of firms, which is to form a "national team" in the semiconductor industry. China's new policy to upgrade its semiconductor industry through innovation does not represent a radical break with its deeply embedded statist tradition. Within these boundaries, however, the study detects important changes in the direction of a bottom-up, market-led approach to industrial policy. In response to the rising complexity and uncertainty of today's semiconductor industry, the government seems more open to experimentation with new approaches to investment finance and flexible, bottom-up policy implementation, based on multilayered industrial dialogues with private firms. China's policies to forge ahead in semiconductors, thus, provide an interesting example of its current efforts to move from investment-driven catching up to an innovation-driven development model.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Science and Technology, and Financial Markets
Political Geography:
China

719. Unconventional Monetary Policy, Spillovers, and Liftoff: Implications for Northeast Asia

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Unconventional monetary policy (UMP) has had predictable effects. How exit plays out is scenario-dependent. Quantitative easing has had the predictable effect of encouraging currency depreciation and some partner countries may have attempted to offset these exchange rate effects. Korea presents a particularly interesting case: it is relatively small and relatively open and integrated, in both trade and financial terms, with the United States and Japan, two practitioners of UMP. Authorities have acted to limit the won's appreciation primarily against the currency of China, not the US or Japan. Nevertheless, Korea's policy is a source of tension with the US. Under legislation currently being considered, the currency manipulation issue could potentially interfere with Korean efforts to attract direct investment from the US and create an obstacle to Korea joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Markets
Political Geography:
Korea and Asia-Pacific

720. China’s Hidden Obstacles to Socioeconomic Rebalancing

Author:
Christopher McNally and Boy Lüthje
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The global financial crisis of 2008-09 led to a policy consensus in China that its socioeconomic development model needed rebalancing. China's rapid development has been based on extensive growth reliant on exports, low wages, environmental exploitation, and the manufacturing of cheap products. China's current plans identify paths to economic rebalancing through intensive growth driven by rising investment in new technologies and manufacturing processes, improved wages and skills, and improved worker and environmental protections. Two industries, automotive and information technology, demonstrate the experience of and opportunities for rebalancing. Both offer improved employment conditions with better wages, but continue to incorporate large swaths of low-wage employment with little protection for workers' health and the environment. Economic rebalancing in China, therefore, has so far only appeared in pockets. Institutional safeguards for wages and labor standards remain constrained by powerful alliances among multinational corporations, Chinese state-owned/private enterprises, and the Chinese state.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China

721. Alternative Waste Solutions for the Pacific Region: Learning from the Hawai’i Experience

Author:
Jordan Howell
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
With limited space and ever-growing trash, the islands of the Pacific share unique challenges managing their solid wastes. The traditional approach has been to collect waste in open dumps and landfills. But overwhelmed sites and unsanitary conditions are driving governments to seek alternative solutions. Hawai'i has implemented "resource recovery" systems in past decades to deal with waste, including an innovative energy-from-waste project on O'ahu, and a recycling/composting program on Maui that focuses on diverting material from landfills. While both have been successful in reducing waste and generating products, the programs have also endured unexpected delays and problems. Despite differences in scale and capacity, the Hawai'i experience offers insights for other Pacific islands into how to tackle their own solid waste management issues, and create systems and policies that deliver the greatest ecological and economic benefits.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States of America

722. We Are Relevant, Influential and Respected

Author:
Sergey Ryabkov and Armen Oganesyan
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
To get down to the facts, in April, Russia’s BrICs presidency got off to a flying start. Within two and a half months, a number of major BrICs related events took place in Russia. Furthermore, a major nonproliferation forum took place, a review conference in new York from late April until late May. this event is held once every five years. and I should also mention perhaps a series of very important, intense and constructive contacts at the top and other levels with the leaders of Latin american countries. This sets the current year apart from the previous year and the year 2013.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, International Security, and Financial Markets
Political Geography:
Russia

723. Relations Between Russia and Europe: No Simple Solutions in Sight

Author:
S. Karaganov
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Crisis between Russia and the West is associated with Crimea and Russia’s actions in Donbass and Ukraine; in fact, it has deeper roots while its long-term repercussions might prove to be much graver than expected. a large-scale armed clash cannot be excluded even if this possibility is gradually reducing; we should be ready to political confrontation and contracted economic ties. Today, Europe is facing an even greater threat: a civilizational divorce with Russia.
Topic:
Political Violence, Economics, Armed Struggle, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

724. The Hour of Truth: The Conflict in Ukraine–Implications for Europe’s Energy Security and the Lessons for the U.S. Army

Author:
Dr. Ariel Cohen and Ivan Benovic
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, a number of gas disputes between Russia and Central and Eastern European countries have unveiled the strategic dependence of Europe on Russian piped gas. The recent Ukrainian crisis demonstrated that Europe has a desperate need to improve the security of its gas supply. The United States is interested in the economic stability and growth of Europe, because the European Union (EU) is its principal and largest economic partner. The United States and the EU enjoy the largest trade and investment relationship in the world, which should not be jeopardized by disruptive, anti-status-quo powers. Europe’s energy independence is not only an economic interest of America, but also a political and security one. Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas undermines European unity and weakens the primary U.S. allies in their relations with Russia. U.S. Armed Forces in Europe and the U.S. Army in particular can and should play an important role in promoting energy security. This involvement includes: increased situational awareness; deployment to the sensitive areas; and enhanced training activities, including with the allies of the U.S. military in Central and Eastern Europe.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Military Affairs, and Gas
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Soviet Union

725. Strategic Insights: Economic Power: Time to Double Down

Author:
Professor John F. Troxell
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
A recent editorial in The New York Times asked the question, “Who threatens America most?” It proceeded to compare recent pronouncements by incoming senior military leaders, the President, the FBI director, and finally the Director of National Intelligence. The major candidates included the usual nation states (Russia, North Korea, and China), a few nonstate terrorist organizations (ISIS and al-Qaeda), and a couple of unattributed capabilities (weapons of mass destruction and cyberattacks). The editorial concluded with the lament: “If officials cannot agree on what the most pressing threats are, how can they develop the right strategies and properly allocate resources?”1 Given the confusion and uncertainty generated by the current strategic environment, compounded by America’s resource-driven retrenchment, it is a fair question. However, I contend that we could pursue a more focused national strategy and do a better job of allocating resources if we focus on the opportunities as opposed to this wide array of threats. The opportunity that beckons is the increasingly interconnected global economy and the integral role played by the United States in both its institutional design and future evolution. A functioning, interconnected global economy will mitigate most, if not all, of the previously mentioned threats, whereas a fractured and disconnected global economy will exacerbate them.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Economics, Governance, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

726. The Limits of Offshore Balancing

Author:
Dr. Hal Brands
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Is offshore balancing the right grand strategy for America? Is it time for Washington to roll back the vast system of overseas security commitments and forward military deployments that have anchored its international posture since World War II? This monograph argues that the answer to these questions is no. Offshore balancing represents the preferred grand strategy among many leading international-relations “realists,” who argue that significant geopolitical retrenchment can actually improve America’s strategic position while slashing the costs of its foreign policy. The reality, however, is rather different. The probable benefits of offshore balancing—both financial and geopolitical—are frequently exaggerated, while the likely disadvantages and dangers are more severe than its proponents acknowledge. In all likelihood, adopting this strategy would not allow America to achieve more security and influence at a lower price. The more plausible results would be to dissipate U.S. influence, to court heightened insecurity and instability, and to expose the nation to greater long-range risks and costs.
Topic:
Economics, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
United States of America

727. China’s Rise and Reconfiguration of Central Asia’s Geopolitics: A Case for U.S. "Pivot" to Eurasia

Author:
Roman Muzalevsky
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
China’s emergence as a global actor has questioned the position of the United States as the strongest power and the future of the Washington-led global order. To achieve the status of a truly global player wielding influence in all dimensions of power would require China to leverage its regional influence in Central Asia. This region is increasingly representing China’s western leg of economic expansion and development, and is of a growing strategic importance for Beijing. It is also a region that should be of greater strategic importance to Washington, which seeks to preserve its leading position in the international system and ensure China’s peaceful integration in the global political, security, and economic architecture.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Global Markets, and Global Security
Political Geography:
China, Eurasia, and Asia

728. Export Commodity Prices And Long-Run Growth Of Primary Commodities-Based African Economies

Author:
Solomon Abayomi Olakojo
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
There is a link between primary commodity export prices and economic performance. Many African economies are primary commodities export biased, often in few primary commodities. Previous studies focus on the impact of commodity prices on growth in Africa with little attention paid to different primary commodities and level of diversification in primary commodities export. This study, investigates the effect of primary commodity prices on the long-run growth of 24 primary commodities-based African economies; by commodity types and level of diversification in primary commodities exports.
Topic:
Economics, Economic Growth, Commodities, Diversification, and Exports
Political Geography:
Africa

729. An Experimental Game on Entrepreneurship and Labour Protection Policy

Author:
Beatriz Muriel and Marcelo Gutierrez
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
We developed a game, in the line of experimental economics, using an expected utility framework, applied to 108 participants. Specifically, we evaluated the hypothesis that, facing uncertainty over potential employees’ skills, employers prefer a flexible labour policy rather than a protectionist one, and when the option of flexible labour contracts is not available, they choose not to undertake a business, reducing job creation. The empirical results show that 79.3% of participants prefer a flexible labour policy, as well as that when this option is excluded, some participants abstain from business undertakings---reducing job creation---, and instead become workers.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Risk, and Flexibility
Political Geography:
Global Focus

730. A Relationship and a Practice: On the French Sociology of Credit

Author:
Laure Lacan and Jeanne Lazarus
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
This paper aims to describe the social studies of credit developed in France over the past dozen years. We argue that this French sociology of credit, mostly centered on France, can be useful for researchers analyzing other countries, with other institutional particularities, because it proposes a specific method and a specific way to raise questions: credit is mostly understood as a result of social interactions embedded in organizational and legal structures. French researchers also deeply analyze the consequences of the organization of the credit market for inequalities, social stratification, and people’s life experiences. The first part of the paper focuses on works that have examined credit as a social test, looking at the institutional, technical, and social frameworks of money lending. Then, credit is understood as a sociological experiment: how is it integrated into household economies? How do people use forms of credit? Finally, the third part concentrates on credit failure, when a bank loan becomes a debt. This aspect is mostly framed in French sociology as “over-indebtedness,” which is an administrative and a social category. Throughout the paper, we address credit as both a relationship and a practice. This approach is heuristic, as we seek to demonstrate, because it enables us to show that credit is a social and political issue.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Sociology, Inequality, and Credit
Political Geography:
Europe and France

731. Politics in the Interest of Capital: A Not-So-Organized Combat

Author:
Cornelia Woll
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
The rise in inequality has been explained with reference to organized groups and the lobbying of the financial sector. This article argues that the image of politics as organized combat is contradicted by empirical evidence on lobbying in the United States, and does not travel well to Europe. The power of finance does not operate through organized political influence. Rather, politics in the interest of capital unfolds as a structural feature of advanced economies over time. Tellingly, at the height of the financial crisis, one of the most promising strategies of institutions seeking government support was not organizing for combat, but collective inaction. Our challenge, then, is to explain how the power of finance has built up and is playing out in creating inequality. A more structural, less agency-focused perspective highlights how the rise of finance has been supported by actors that few would accuse of being finance-friendly, such as the European center-left parties and consumers. Reconceptualizing the power of finance has important implications for political solutions to rising inequality.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Inequality, Finance, and Capital
Political Geography:
Europe

732. Financialization Is Marketization! A Study on the Respective Impact of Various Dimensions of Financialization on the Increase in Global Inequality

Author:
Olivier Godechot
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
In this paper, we study the impact of financialization on the rise in inequality in 18 OECD countries from 1970 to 2011 and measure the respective roles of various forms of financialization: the growth of the financial sector; the growth of one of its subcomponents, financial markets; the financialization of non-financial firms; and the financialization of households. We test these impacts using cross-country panel regressions in OECD countries. As dependent measures we use Solt’s (2009) Gini index, the World Top Incomes Database, and OECD inter-decile inequality measures. We show first that the share of the finance sector within the GDP is a substantial driver of world inequality, explaining between 20 and 40 percent of its increase from 1980 to 2007. When we decompose this financial sector effect, we find that this evolution was mainly driven by the increase in the volume of stocks traded in national stock exchanges and by the volume of shares held as assets in banks’ balance sheets. By contrast, the financialization of non-financial firms and of households does not play a substantial role. Based on this inequality test, we therefore interpret financialization as being mainly a phenomenon of marketization, redefined as the growing amount of social energy devoted to the trade of financial instruments on financial markets.
Topic:
Economics, Income Inequality, Financialisation, OECD, and Marketization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

733. Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea: Assessing the Threat, Preparing the Response

Author:
Fiona Blyth and Mireille Affa'a Mindzie
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The International Peace Institute convened a roundtable discussion on "Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea: Assessing the Threats, Preparing the Response" on June 6, 2013, in New York. The meeting aimed to help develop a better understanding of the peace and security challenges facing the Gulf of Guinea by examining the multifaceted threats to the stability of the region; considering national, regional, and international responses to these threats; and providing practical policy recommendations with a view to strengthening regional and international responses.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Poverty, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Piracy
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

734. Can Negotiating a Uniform Carbon Price Help to Internalize the Global Warming Externality?

Author:
Martin L. Weitzman
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
It is difficult to resolve the global warming free-rider externality problem by negotiating quantity targets. By contrast, negotiating a single binding minimum carbon price (the proceeds from which are domestically retained) counters self interest by incentivizing agents to internalize the externality. The model of this paper indicates an exact sense in which each agent's extra cost from a higher emissions price is counterbalanced by that agent's extra benefit from inducing all other agents to simultaneously lower their emissions. Some implications are discussed.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

735. Capital Flight: Measurement and Drivers

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana, James K. Boyce, and Ameth Saloum Ndiaye
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper describes the nature of capital flight, the methodologies used to measure it, and its drivers. The paper presents updated estimates of the magnitude of capital flight from 39 African countries for which adequate data are available for the period 1970-2010. It gives a global context of the problem of capital flight from Africa by providing comparative indicators on capital flight and related flows for other developing regions. The paper undertakes a detailed econometric analysis of the drivers of capital flight from African countries. It explores empirically the role of domestic and external factors in driving capital flight, including structural factors, the macroeconomic environment, governance, risk and returns to investment, capital account openness, and financial development. The first objective of the study is to contribute to the literature by providing the most comprehensive analysis of capital flight from Africa that takes into account economic as well as non-economic dimensions, and recognizes the importance of both the domestic and global contexts. The second objective is to contribute to the policy debate on capital flight both in Africa and globally.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Affairs, Global Markets, Global Political Economy, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

736. Macroeconomic Impact of Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
John Weeks
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper assesses the impact of capital flight on growth in thirty-one sub-Saharan African countries. It first considers the “macro fundamentals” hypothesis that capital flight would be lower in a country whose government adhered to “sound” macroeconomic policies. Analytical considerations fail to support this hypothesis. Second, it develops a growth estimating equation derived from the Harrod-Domar framework. The growth estimations support the conclusion that capital flight had a major impact on growth over the last three decades, 1980–2010. The negative impact was greatest for the petroleum-exporting countries and those affected by internal conflict, but it was also substantial for the other countries, with a few exceptions.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Global Markets, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, Macroeconomics, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Angola, Chad, Cameroon, Global Focus, Gabon, and Republic of Congo

737. Natural Resources and Capital Flight: A Role for Policy?

Author:
Lemma W. Senbet, Gregoire Rota-Graziosi, and Rabah Arezki
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the relationship between natural resources and capital flight in the form of tax avoidance from multinational corporations. In particular, it focuses on the spillover effects in terms of tax revenue mobilization and stock market development from the thin capitalization rule, a policy instrument aimed at limiting firm tax avoidance through setting limits on a firm’s foreign indebtedness. We exploit the plausibly exogenous within-country variations of data on oil discoveries for a panel of 117 countries during the period 1970–2012. We find evidence that oil discoveries significantly enhance both tax revenue mobilization and stock market development, but only when a thin capitalization rule is in place. We argue that these findings can be explained through the limiting role of a thin capitalization rule in multinational companies’ use of financial transactions among their affiliates or tax havens to transfer part of the profit. The thin capitalization rule may thus not only help limit the erosion of the domestic tax base but may also entice multinational corporations to resort to using and developing the domestic financial system.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Financial Markets, Economic Growth, Capital Flows, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:
Africa

738. International in Life, National in Death? Banking Nationalism on the Road to Banking Union

Author:
Martin Rhodes and Rachel A. Epstein
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
European states have a long history of banking sector nationalism. Control over credit allocation is believed to contribute to economic development and competitiveness goals, insulation from external economic shocks, and control over monetary policy. This paper explains the potentially dramatic loss in domestic control over banks created by the European Banking Union (EBU). First, we argue that ongoing liberalization in the global and European economies has made banking sector protectionism both more costly and conflictual. Second, we contend that because many of the biggest banks have internationalized their operations, they now prefer centralized European regulation and supervision. Third, supporting a modified neofunctionalist argument, we find that behind the sometimes frenetic intergovernmental bargaining in 2012-14, it is primarily the European Commission and the European Central Bank that have pushed Banking Union ahead. Supranational institutions have argued, with some success, that they have unique capacity to solve collective action and prisoners' dilemma problems. Contrary to accepted wisdom, Germany has not set or limited the Banking Union agenda to a great extent, in part because of its own internal divisions. Moreover, the Commission and the ECB have managed at critical junctures to isolate Germany to secure the country's assent to controversial measures.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

739. Identifying Binding Constraints in Pacific Island Economies

Author:
Ron Duncan, Hilarian Codippily, Emele Duituturaga, and Raijieli Bulatale
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The emergence of a large number of small states over the past four decades or so (there are presently around 50 states with populations with less than 1.5 million) has led to considerable interest amongst researchers, member governments, and international agencies in their economic and environmental viability. The literature generated in the process has focused on the special problems and development challenges faced by such states, including their prospects for integration with the changing global environment. The study presented here builds upon this literature in examining the binding constraints to development. It is our hope that this study will benefit policy makers, researchers, and the donor community.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Island

740. The BRICS Development Bank: A New Tool for South-South Cooperation?

Author:
Jan Schablitzki
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
The Sixth BRICS Summit, held in July 2014 in Fortaleza, Brazil, resulted in agreements to establish a New Development Bank (NDB) as well as a Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA). This Policy Brief discusses the impact of the NDB on the existing architecture of development finance, focusing on the bank’s potential contribution to the BRICS’ South-South cooperation. The first section outlines the BRICS countries’ rational for establishing the NDB. In the following section potential development paradigms that are likely to be adopted by the NDB are addressed. Since no decision has been taken on the bank’s future governance, this section will be based on the experiences from the BRICS’ national development banks. Once the NDB’s governance is agreed upon, it will impact whether and to what extent the new bank will cooperate with the existing international system of development finance. A third section discusses the NDB’s potential appeal for the Global South. The Global South shares with the BRICS a disappointment with the existing system, and connects specific hopes and expectations with the foundation of the NDB. Examining the Banks effect on South-South cooperation, the section includes prospects on the Bank’s capital potential and by that its potential contribution to the prevalent demand for infrastructure financing in developing countries. A final section summarises the points made and aims to put the present perceptions of the NDB in rather cautious perspectives.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, and Developing World
Political Geography:
Global Focus

741. A Changing Global Environment

Author:
Antonio Missiroli and Gerald Stang et al
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The last 20 years have brought huge reductions in global poverty, opening economic, political and personal opportunities for hundreds of millions of people and the countries where they live and work. This is changing old power balances, altering how humanity uses the earth’s scarce resources, and democratising – for good and for ill – access to many advanced technologies. Governance institutions are struggling to react to all these changes. And while economic, demographic and technological trends will greatly influence the changing international balance of power, concerns of security and geopolitics will likely retain their own unique rationale. The first section of this Chaillot Paper explores these issues through thematic, and the second through geographic, lenses.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Poverty, and European Union

742. Disruptive Innovation: Risk-Shifting and Precarity in the Age of Uber

Author:
Emily Isaac
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Over the past 30 years, economic restructuring and advancements in technological innovation have allowed for the emergence of new business models that disrupt many longstanding industries. Much of the industry disruption that we see today stems from tech companies and startups that have developed a better cost-model by utilizing smart phone-enabled apps to offer simpler and less expensive products and services than those offered by competing incumbents. Uber Technologies Inc., an on-demand ridesharing service that connects passengers to local drivers in real time using smartphone technology, is one of the most disruptive, successful tech start-ups yet. Uber’s success, which can be attributed to a low fixed-cost model that provides ride-seekers a faster and more reliable alternative to the traditional taxi and promises drivers a higher hourly earning through the avoidance of costly regulations, has severely disrupted the taxi service industry. In cities around the world, taxi companies are losing their customers and their drivers to Uber and similar “transportation network companies” (TNCs), such as Lyft, Sidecar, and Hailo.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Science and Technology, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Global Focus

743. Escape from the Commodity Trap: Will the Production Transformation Sustain Productivity, Growth and Jobs?

Author:
John Zysman
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The emerging transformation of the production of goods and services is dramatically altering what is produced, where, how, and who captures the value. It creates opportunities and challenges. Part I of this essay examines the transformation of production and its acceleration by Cloud Computing. A first argument is that the transformation of production, including both manufacturing and ICT-enabled services should be our focus. A second argument is that ICT enabled services are a source of distinct value in the economy. Third, it considers the distinct and contradictory challenges facing manufacturing. The fourth argument is that the transformation of production will be accelerated by the emergence of Cloud Computing as the next Information Technology Platform. Part II of the essay makes a few focused policy suggestions and considers several issues policy makers need to consider as they frame policy. The emphasis is on the role of next generation tools and competencies of “places”. The crucial policy question is how to nudge that transformation in the advanced countries toward higher value added, higher skilled, higher wage solutions.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Communications, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

744. Two Principles of Debt and national Income Dynamics in a Pure Credit Economy

Author:
Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The paper puts forward two principles of national income dynamics in a pure credit economy. The first is the commonly known principle of Keynesian/Kaleckian economics according to which total output and employment in a capitalist economy is determined by the level of business investment. In turn that investment has to be financed, so that debt is inherent in such and economy. The second principle is a principle of the conservation of debt , which argues that, while new debt creates deposits in the economy, attempts to reduce debt generate deflationary processes that off-set debt reductions by creating ‘enforced’ debt in other parts of the economy. The analysis reinforces Minsky’s view that debt structures require corresponding investment to manage them, and that debt problems arise when such investment is insufficient.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Investment, Economic Theory, Keynes, and Credit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

745. Inextricability of Autonomy and Confluence in Econometrics

Author:
Duo Qin
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper examines how ‘confluence’ and ‘autonomy’, two key concepts introduced by Frisch around 1930, have disappeared in econometrics textbooks and why only some fragments of the two have survived mainstream econometrics. It relates the disappearance to the defect in the textbook position of equating a priori theoretical models as correct structural models unequivocally. It shows how the confluence-autonomy pair in unity reflects the complexity of econometricians’ goal to find and verify robust and economically meaningful models out of numerous interdependent variables observable from the real and open world. The complexity deems it essential for applied research to have a set of model design rules combining both a priori substantive reasoning and a posteriori statistical testing. Such a need also puts the task of ensuring an adequately minimum model closure to top priority for applied modellers, a task much more important than the textbook task of parameter estimation.
Topic:
Economics, Intellectual History, Economic Theory, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

746. Egypt's Arms Deal with Russia: Potential Strategic Costs

Author:
David Schenker and Eric Trager
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Cairo's possible purchase of advanced weapons systems from Russia could become another irritant in U.S.-Egyptian relations.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Ukraine, Middle East, and Egypt

747. Jordan's Energy Balancing Act

Author:
Simon Henderson and David Schenker
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A deal to buy Israeli natural gas can help mitigate the kingdom's energy shortage and steer Amman away from problematic nuclear plans, but it risks stirring domestic opposition. In February, two private Jordanian firms signed a contract with a private U.S.-Israeli consortium to import natural gas from Israel's giant Tamar field, located under the bed of the Mediterranean Sea fifty miles offshore from Haifa. The Arab Potash Company and the Jordan Bromine Company -- both partially owned by the Jordanian government -- will pay Houston-based Noble Energy and its partners $500 million over the course of fifteen years to supply a power plant at Jordanian industrial facilities by the Dead Sea. At just $33 million per year, the deal is not financially significant, but it may set a huge precedent in terms of fostering regional economic cooperation and establishing a framework for Jordanian energy security. The political challenges are significant, however, particularly following the March 10 shooting of a Jordanian man at an Israeli-controlled West Bank crossing point.
Topic:
Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

748. Iran Seeks to Untangle UN Sanctions

Author:
Steven Ditto
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Islamic Republic has added to its nuclear negotiating team a law professor who has extensive experience making Iran's case in international disputes. On April 9, Iran and the P5+1 (Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States, plus Germany) concluded the latest two-day round of talks on a nuclear deal, setting the next round for May 13. Earlier in the week, on April 7, Iranian media reported the appointment of Dr. Jamshid Momtaz as head of a "legal advisory group" to the Iranian negotiating team. A French-educated expert on sanctions, disarmament, and UN procedure, Momtaz has represented the Iranian government in some of its highest-profile international legal proceedings, including in claims against the U.S. government at the Hague-based International Court of Justice (ICJ). Momtaz's familiarity with the United Nations, his extensive practice in Europe, and his proven history of leveraging complex legal arguments to advance Iran's international interests indicate that in these latest rounds of P5+1 talks Tehran is likely looking for unconventional ways to "address" and "bring a satisfactory conclusion to" the UN Security Council resolutions against it, as called for in the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) agreed to in Geneva last November.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Iran, and France

749. Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Old Debates, New Challenges

Author:
James A. Haley
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Ten years ago, in the wake of the Asian financial crisis and subsequent Argentine default, the international community debated how to best promote the timely, effective restructuring of sovereign debt. The debate then focused largely on the relative merits of a so-called statutory approach for sovereign restructurings, with features of domestic bankruptcy regimes, versus the voluntary use of contractual terms designed to facilitate restructurings. At the time, the statutory approach did not have the support necessary to move from proposal to policy and efforts to improve the framework of sovereign debt restructuring rested on the contractual approach.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Asia

750. Understanding Latin America's Financial Inclusion Gap

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Maria Alejandra Amado
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper analyzes Latin America's Financial Inclusion Gap, the difference between the average financial inclusion for Latin America and the corresponding average for a set of comparator countries. At the country level, we assess four types of obstacles to financial inclusion: macroeconomic weaknesses, income inequality, institutional deficiencies and financial sector inefficiencies. A key finding of this paper is that although the four types of obstacles explain the absolute level of financial inclusion, institutional deficiencies and income inequality are the most important obstacles behind the Latin America's financial inclusion gap. From our analysis at the individual level, we find that there is a Latin America-specific effect of education and income. The results suggest that the effect of attaining secondary education on the probability of being financially included is significantly higher in Latin America than in its comparators. Furthermore, the difference in the probability of being financially included between the richest and the poorest individuals is significantly higher in Latin America than in comparator countries.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Human Rights, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Latin America

751. Women's economic opportunity: A new pilot index and global ranking

Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Women's political and economic empowerment has been a defining feature of the last century. Millions of women in the early 1900s rejected convention and ignorance to fi ght for the right to vote. Thirty years later the daughters and granddaughters of those suffragettes, defying stereotypes, flocked to factories to help build the machines that won the second world war. The next generation of women secured their rights in law, then entered the workforce in droves, fuelling economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s. At the start of the 21st century women are not just enfranchised and fully engaged in the workplace, but leading global corporations and countries of every size. Germany's Angela Merkel, Liberia's Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, and Pepsico's Indra Nooyi are three among many. Yet after a century of impressive progress, overall economic opportunities for women still lag those of men. Women, on average, earn 75% of their male co-workers' wages, and the difference cannot be explained solely by schooling or experience. In many countries, women have fewer educational and employment opportunities than men, are more often denied credit, and endure social restrictions that limit their chances for advancement. In some developing countries women still cannot vote, own property or venture outside the home without a male family member.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Reform
Political Geography:
Germany

752. Cost allocation in investment arbitration: Forward toward incentivization

Author:
John Gaffney and James Nicholson
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In their contribution to the FDI Perspectives series, Baiju Vasani and Anastasiya Ugale drew attention to an emerging trend in favor of the so-called "costs follow the event" (CFtE) (or loser pays) approach, which is in contrast to the more "traditional" approach under which parties share the costs of arbitration equally, with each party covering its own legal fees.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Governance, and Reform

753. Coordination of Social Security Schemes. The Case of SADC

Author:
Ockert Dupper
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
This paper will explore whether and to what extent the (legal) rules of coordination that originated and developed in the EU can be transposed to SADC – a region characterized by high levels of migration, weakly developed social security systems and the absence of suitable portability arrangements. The principle of coordination of social security is primarily aimed at eliminating restrictions that national social security schemes place upon the rights of migrant workers to such social security. One of the fundamental principles of social security coordination is that of portability, which is the ability to preserve, maintain, and transfer vested social security rights or rights in the process of being vested, independent of nationality and country of residence. The best practice around the world to ensure portability of social security entitlements consists of multilateral and bilateral social security agreements. These agreements originated and developed in the EU, and EU coordination arrangements arguably still represent the most sophisticated and developed system of its kind, and one that is worth emulating. In this paper, it is argued that any future attempts at coordinating social security schemes in SADC should start with employment injury schemes, which is the only social security scheme common to all SADC member states. The paper considers some of the issues that should be taken into account in designing social security agreements in SADC along the lines of the EU model.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Migration, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

754. Locked In or Left Out? Transatlantic Trade Beyond Brussels and Washington

Author:
Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Many countries are interested in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) that Brussels and Washington are negotiating. But the United States and the European Union (EU) began talks without devising a way to involve their main trade partners. This approach, understandable given the complexity of the negotiations, could produce a bilateral agreement that is difficult to multilateralize. To influence the negotiations, third countries interested in eventually joining TTIP should pursue an agenda centered on the accession mechanism, the elimination of nontariff barriers, and dispute settlement.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

755. La crise centrafricaine: de la prédation à la stabilisation

Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
La crise actuelle en République centrafricaine, qui a débuté en décembre 2012, marque la désagrégation de l'Etat, conséquence de la double prédation des autorités et des groupes armés. La Seleka a amplifié et porté à son paroxysme la mauvaise gouvernance des régimes précédents. Ses dirigeants ont pillé ce qui restait de l'Etat et fait main basse sur l'économie illicite du pays. Afin de rompre avec le cycle des crises qui caractérise la Centrafrique et de favorise r l'émergence d'un Etat fonctionnel capable de protéger ses citoyens, il est impératif de rendre l'intervention internationale plus efficace en y adjoignant comme priorités, en plus de la sécurité, la relance de l'économie productive et la lutte contre la corru ption et les trafics. Seul un partenariat étroit entre le gouvernement de transition, les Nations unies et le groupe des inter- nationaux impliqués dans cette crise (G5) permettra de relever ce défi. Ce partenariat doit notamment comprendre l'affectation de conseillers techniques étrangers au sein des ministères clés.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, Environment, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Central African Republic

756. The Rahmon Phenomenon: New Challenges for Tajikistan's Long-Standing President

Author:
Alexey Malashenko and Aziz Niyazi
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Emomali Rahmon's reelection as president of Tajikistan in 2013 testifies to his regime's stability and its capacity for self-preservation. He now faces a number of complex tasks, which include undertaking economic reforms, counteracting religious smism, and resolving conflicts with neighboring countries. It is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain a high degree of stability under these conditions.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Religion, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Tajikistan

757. The Economics of Egypt's Rising Authoritarian Order

Author:
Amr Adly
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Egypt's economy is in crisis as the new military-backed regime seeks to reestablish its authority. Fiscal restructuring and austerity measures are necessary to spur economic recovery, but they may be politically difficult to pass at this time. The new regime, therefore, will have to broaden its base and forge a more inclusive coalition of supporters in order to stabilize Egypt, retain power, and restore economic growth.
Topic:
Security and Economics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

758. Balancing Without Containment: An American Strategy for Managing China

Author:
Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China is poised to become a major strategic rival to the United States. Whether or not Beijing intends to challenge Washington's primacy, its economic boom and growing national ambitions make competition inevitable. And as China rises, American power will diminish in relative terms, threatening the foundations of the U.S.-backed global order that has engendered unprecedented prosperity worldwide. To avoid this costly outcome, Washington needs a novel strategy to balance China without containing it.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Washington, and Asia

759. The Political Origins of the Africa's Economic Revival

Author:
Robert H. Bates and Steven Block
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Writing in the 1990's, William Easterly and Ross Levine famously labeled Africa a "growth tragedy." Less than twenty years later, Alwyn Young noted Africa's "growth miracle," while Steven Radelet less effusively pointed to an Africa that was"emerging" and noted its rising rate of economic growth, improving levels of education and health care, and increasing levels of investment in basic infrastructure: roads, ports, and transport. In this paper, we address Africa's economic revival. In doing so, we also stress the political changes that have taken place on the continent. Once notorious for its tyrants – Jean – Bedel Bokassa, Idi Amin, and Mobutu Sese Seko, to name but three – in the 1990s, Africa joined the last wave of democratization; self-appointed heads of state were replaced by rulers chosen in competitive elections. In this paper, we assert that the two sets of changes – the one economic and the other political – go together, and that, indeed, changes in Africa political institutions lent significant impetus to its economic revival.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa

760. How to enhance labor provisions in IIAs,

Author:
Rafael Tamayo-Álvarez, Maria Alejandra Gonzalez-Perez, and Juan David Rodriguez-Rios
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Free trade agreements (FTAs) and international investment agreements (IIAs) are regarded as instruments to promote world trade, investment flows and market liberalization. The question, however, is whether they promote sustainable development as well. This Perspective contemplates incorporating voluntary codes of conduct for multinational enterprises (MNEs) in IIAs to strengthen the protection of labor rights, "the social component [...] embedded in the notion of sustainable development."
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues

761. Withdrawing incentives to attract FDI: Can host countries put the genie back in the bottle?

Author:
Anna De Luca
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Many governments offer incentives to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). For example, the renewable energy sector has benefitted from large national incentive schemes in the past decade. However, the withdrawal of such incentives can lead to investors bringing investment treaty claims against host countries. This Perspective looks at some claims host countries face from investors in the renewable energy sector and their implications.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Italy

762. How Should Donors Respond to Resource Windfalls in Poor Countries?

Author:
Alan Gelb, Anton Dobronogov, and Fernando Brant Saldanha
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Natural resources are being discovered in more countries, both rich and poor. Many of the new and aspiring resource exporters are low-income countries that are still receiving substantial levels of foreign aid. Resource discoveries open up enormous opportunities, but also expose producing countries to huge trade and fiscal shocks from volatile commodity markets if their exports are highly concentrated. A large literature on the "resource curse" shows that these are damaging unless countries manage to cushion the effects through countercyclical policy. It also shows that the countries least likely to do so successfully are those with weaker institutions, and these are most likely to remain as clients of the aid system. This paper considers the question of how donors should respond to their clients' potential windfalls. It discusses several ways in which the focus and nature of foreign aid programs will need to change, including the level of financial assistance. The paper develops some ideas on how a donor like the International Development Association might structure its program of financial transfers to mitigate volatility. The paper outlines ways in which the International Development Association could use hedging instruments to vary disbursements while still working within a framework of country allocations that are not contingent on oil prices. Simulations suggest that the International Development Association could be structured to provide a larger degree of insurance if it is calibrated to hedge against large declines in resource prices. These suggestions are intended to complement other mechanisms, including self-insurance using Sovereign Wealth Funds (where possible) and the facilities of the International Monetary Fund.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ghana

763. India and Pakistan: The Opportunity Cost of Conflict

Author:
Shuja Nawaz and Mohan Guruswamy
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
India and Pakistan, born out of a single British-ruled entity in 1947, have continued an implacable rivalry marked by periodic wars and hostilities as well as through proxies. This unending conflict has led them to invest heavily in their militaries and even to choose nuclear weaponry as a deterrence on the part of Pakistan toward India and on India's part toward both Pakistan and China. Although there have been occasional moves toward confidence building measures and most recently toward more open borders for trade, deep mistrust and suspicion mark this sibling rivalry. Their mutual fears have fuelled an arms race, even though increasingly civil society actors now appear to favor rapprochement and some sort of an entente. The question is whether these new trends will help diminish the military spending on both sides.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, India, Asia, and Southeast Asia

764. Companions in Competitiveness: How France and the United States Can Help Each Other Succeed in the Twenty-first Century

Author:
Nicholas Dungan
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Competitiveness encompasses all the factors that will serve to make a society, an economy, and a country successful in the globalized world of the twenty-first century. France and the United States rank among the most competitive countries overall, but both have seen their position decline in recent years in key attributes of competitiveness.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and France

765. Uncertain Energy: The Caribbean's Gamble with Venezuela

Author:
David L. Goldwyn and Cory R Gill
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
It has been nearly ten years since the launch of Petrocaribe, a program designed to win the political loyalty of the Caribbean states through generous credit subsidies to help import Venezuelan crude oil and products. Recipient states have grown dependent on high-cost, high-carbon fuels for power generation and Venezuelan credit to balance their budgets.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Caribbean, and Venezuela

766. Trade policy issues in the Wider Europe – that led to war and not yet to peace

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper looks at the trade policy landscape of the EU and the wider Europe, with a focus on issues arising from the signature on 27 June 2014 of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) between the EU and three East European countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), and actual or prospective issues relating to the customs union of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan (BRK), and the Eurasian Economic Union whose founding treaty was signed on 29 May 2014.The huge expansion of intercontinental free trade area negotiations currently underway, in which the EU is an active participant alongside much of the Americas and Asia, stands in contrast with Russia's choice to restrict itself to the Eurasian Economic Union, which is only a marginal extension of its own economy. Alone among the major economies in the world, Russia does not seek to integrate economically with any major economic bloc, which should be a matter of serious concern for Moscow. Within the wider Europe, the EU's DCFTAs with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are a major new development, but Russia now threatens trade sanctions against Ukraine in particular, the economic case for which seems unfounded and whose unilateral application would also impair the customs union.The Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan customs union itself poses several issues of compatibility with the rules of the WTO, which in turn are viewed by the EU as an impediment to discussing possible free trade scenarios with the customs union, although currently there are far more fundamental political impediments to any consideration of such ideas. Nonetheless, this paper looks at various long-term scenarios, if only as a reminder that there could be much better alternatives to the present context of conflict around Ukraine.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Asia

767. ECB Policy and Eurozone Fragility: Was De Grauwe Right?

Author:
Ana-Maria Fuertes, Elena Kalotychou, and Orkun Saka
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Paul De Grauwe ' s fragility hypothesis states that member countries of a monetary union such as the eurozone are highly vulnerable to a self – fulfilling mechanism by which the efforts of investors to avoid losses from default can end up triggering the very default they fear. The authors test this hypothesis by applying an eclectic methodology to a time window around Mario Draghi ' s " whatever it takes " (to keep the eurozone on firm footing) pledge on 26 July 2012 . This pledge was soon followed by the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program me (the prospective and conditional purchase by the European Central Bank of sovereign bonds of eurozone countries having difficulty issuing debt) . The principal components of eurozone credit default swap spreads validate this choice of time frame . An event study reveals significant pre – announcement contagion emanating from Spain to Italy, Belgium, France and Austria. Furthermore, time – series regression confirms frequent clusters of large shocks affecting the credit default swap spreads of the four eurozone countries but solely during the pre – announcement period. The findings of this report support the fragility hypothesis for the eurozone and endorse the Outright Monetary Transactions programme.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Belgium, and Italy

768. Trade Hallucination: Risks of Trade Facilitation and Suggestions for Implementation

Author:
Jeronim Capaldo
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Official estimates tend to overstate the benefits of trade facilitation and ignore its costs. When all underlying assumptions are brought to light, expecting large gains appears unreasonable. At the same time, estimated employment benefits may easily turn into net losses.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Europe

769. Regime Change, Democracy, and Growth

Author:
Caroline Freund and Mélise Jaud
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The empirical literature on the relationship between democracy and growth has yielded conflicting results. Cross-country studies have failed to identify a significant impact of democracy on growth, while within-country studies have found a strong positive effect of the transition to democracy on growth. We reconcile the conflicting evidence by showing that the positive effect of democratic transitions results from regime change as opposed to democratization. We identify over 100 transitions in the last half-century with various outcomes: to and from democracy, some partial, and some failed. The variety of experiences allows us to compare the growth outcome of democratic transitions with that of other transitions rather than with a no-transition counterfactual. Conditioning on regime change filters out selection effects and shows that transition to democracy yields no growth dividend compared to other types of regime change. We also show that countries that democratize slowly do not gain from regime change. These results suggest that the growth dividend from political transition results from swift regime change rather than from democratization.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
Brazil

770. Labor Market Slack in the United Kingdom

Author:
David G. Blanchflower and David N. F. Bell
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the amount of slack in the UK labor market and finds the downward adjustments made by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to both unemployment and underemployment invalid. Without evidence to support its assessment of the output gap, the MPC reduces the level of unemployment based on its claim that long-term unemployment does not affect wages. The authors produce evidence to the contrary and present arguments on why the MPC's halving of the level of underemployment in the United Kingdom is inappropriate. Bell and Blanchflower set out arguments on why they believe the level of slack is greater than the MPC calibrates. Consistent with that is the fact that real wages in the United Kingdom continue to fall.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

771. The Scottish Doughnut: A safe and just operating space for Scotland

Author:
Katherine Trebeck and Malcolm Sayers
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
We live on a fragile planet which is under increased human stress, to the extent that we are transgressing several of the planetary boundaries as mapped out by the Stockholm Resilience Centre (SRC). We share this planet with over seven billion fellow human beings, too many of whom face extraordinary challenges in building a life free of poverty, indignity, powerlessness and fear. While a small number of people are using the most resources, simultaneously too many are unable to lead lives in which they can flourish and live with dignity.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

772. Climate and Environmental Change: Views from Life in a Time of Food Price Volatility

Author:
Alexandra Wanjiku Kelbert
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
How are rapid recent food price changes linked to climate and environmental change? How do people who are vulnerable to these changes view these links? This note explores the views of people living on low and precarious incomes on these connections, based on research designed to explore experiences of food price volatility in 2012, through qualitative research in 23 research sites in 10 countries. The research was not specifically designed to study perceptions of climate and environmental change; these views are collected here because they offer interesting, relatively unmediated insights into how people perceive the causal connections between their food security and environment across varied social and ecological settings.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, and Food

773. Trade and Innovation in Global Networks-Regional Policy Implications

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
This Think Piece explores how integration into international trade through global networks of production (GPNs) and innovation (GINs) might affect a region's innovation capacity. As regions across the globe are progressively integrated into those global networks - some certainly more than others - these regions are all faced with a fundamental challenge: How might progressive integration of its firms into GPNs and GINs affect learning, capability development and innovation? Will network integration unlock new sources of industrial innovation? Or will it act as a poisoned chalice that will sap and erode the region's accumulated capabilities?
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues

774. Economic Statecraft Redux: Improving the U.S. State Department's Effectiveness in International Economic Policy

Author:
Robert A. Pollard and Gregory N. Hicks
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
At a time when economics has become a more central feature of international relations, the United States needs to raise its game in international economic policy to sustain global leadership. Yet the U.S. government is not well organized at present to meet this challenge.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States

775. Trade policy issues in the Wider Europe – that led to war and not yet to peace

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper looks at the trade policy landscape of the EU and the wider Europe, with a focus on issues arising from the signature on 27 June 2014 of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) between the EU and three East European countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), and actual or prospective issues relating to the customs union of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan (BRK), and the Eurasian Economic Union whose founding treaty was signed on 29 May 2014. While the contrived collision between these projects has tragically induced Russia to break all the established international security norms by waging war against Ukraine, the present paper deals essentially with trade policy issues. The huge expansion of intercontinental free trade area negotiations currently underway, in which the EU is an active participant alongside much of the Americas and Asia, stands in contrast with Russia's choice to restrict itself to the Eurasian Economic Union, which is only a marginal extension of its own economy. Alone among the major economies in the world, Russia does not seek to integrate economically with any major economic bloc, which should be a matter of serious concern for Moscow. Within the wider Europe, the EU's DCFTAs with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are a major new development, but Russia now threatens trade sanctions against Ukraine in particular, the economic case for which seems unfounded and whose unilateral application would also impair the customs union. The Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan customs union itself poses several issues of compatibility with the rules of the WTO, which in turn are viewed by the EU as an impediment to discussing possible free trade scenarios with the customs union, although currently there are far more fundamental political impediments to any consideration of such ideas. Nonetheless this paper looks at various long-term scenarios, if only as a reminder that there could be much better alternatives to the present context of conflict around Ukraine.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, America, Europe, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Asia, and Georgia

776. The Fiscal Impact of Immigration

Author:
Alex Nowrasteh
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The fiscal impact of immigration-how immigrants and their descendants affect government budgets-is a widely debated and contentious issue. Economists overwhelmingly accept the economic gains of immigration, but are less certain about immigrants' impact on government budgets. Contention over this issue is fueled by the numerous methodologies and complexity of analysis that obscure the fiscal costs of immigration.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Immigration, Governance, and Budget

777. The China-EU BIT: The emerging "Global BIT 2.0"?

Author:
Wenhua Shan and Lu Wang
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Since China and the European Union (EU) announced their decision to negotiate a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) at the 14th China-EU Summit in February 2012, the two sides have engaged in two rounds of negotiations. If successful, it will be the first standalone EU BIT, a BIT between the world's largest developed economy and the world's largest developing economy, and will occupy a unique place in the history of BIT negotiations.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

778. Middle East 2020: Shaped by or Shaper of Global Trends?

Author:
Mathew J. Burrows
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With new crises sprouting almost on a daily basis in the Middle East, there is increasing interest in knowing the possible medium- and long-term consequences of the cascading developments in the region. This report attempts to think about the alternative futures possible in the Middle East over the next five to ten years. This is a shorter-term forecast than usual, but in the Middle East more deep-seated and structural factors are in flux than in most other regions. A longer-term forecast would allow for more optimism, but would be less useful for decision-makers who not only need a bird's eye view of where developments are headed but also a notion of the pressure points to effect positive change now.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East

779. How Has the Developing World Changed since the Late 1990s? A Dynamic and Multidimensional Taxonomy of Developing Countries

Author:
Andy Sumner and Sergio Tezanos Vázquez
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Many existing classifications of developing countries are dominated by income per capita (such as the World Bank's low, middle, and high income thresholds), thus neglecting the multidimensionality of the concept of 'development'. Even those deemed to be the main 'alternatives' to the income-based classification have income per capita heavily weighted within a composite indicator. This paper provides an alternative perspective: clusters of developing countries. We take 4 'frames' on the meaning of development: economic development, human development, better governance, and environmental sustainability. We then use a cluster procedure in order to build groups of countries that are to some extent internally 'homogeneous', but noticeably dissimilar to other groups. The advantage of this procedure is that it allows us identify the key development characteristics of each cluster of countries and where each country fits best. We then use this taxonomy to analyze how the developing world has changed since the late 1990s in terms of clusters of countries and the country groupings themselves.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Governance, and Reform

780. Not Just in Transit: Drugs, the State and Society in West Africa

Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This report examines the increase in drug trafficking and consumption in West Africa and their impact on the state and on society. It concludes with recommendations on how the region can respond humanely, effectively and preemptively to these problems.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, War on Drugs, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Africa

781. Trade policy issues in the Wider Europe - that led to war and not yet to peace

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper looks at the trade policy landscape of the EU and the wider Europe, with a focus on issues arising from the signature on 27 June 2014 of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) between the EU and three East European countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), and actual or prospective issues relating to the customs union of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan (BRK), and the Eurasian Economic Union whose founding treaty was signed on 29 May 2014. While the contrived collision between these projects has tragically induced Russia to break all the established international security norms by waging war against Ukraine , the present paper deals essentially with trade policy issues . The huge expansion of intercontinental free trade area negotiation s currently underway, in which the EU is an active participant alongside much of the Americas and Asia, stands in contrast with Russia's choice to restrict itself to the Eurasian Economic Union, which is only a marginal extension of its own economy. Alone among the major economies in the world, Russia does not seek to integrate economically with any major economic bloc, which should be a matter of serious concern for Moscow. Within the wider Europe, the EU's DCFTAs with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are a major new development, but Russia now threatens trade sanctions against Ukraine in particular, the economic case for which seems unfounded and whose unilateral application would also impair the customs union. The Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan customs union itself poses several issues of compatibility with the rules of the WTO, which in turn are viewed by the EU as an impediment to discussing possible free trade scenarios with the customs union, although currently there are far more fundamental political impediments to any consideration of such ideas. Nonetheless this paper looks at various long-term scenarios, if only as a reminder that there could be much better alternatives to the present context of conflict around Ukraine.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan

782. Transatlantic Economic Agreements: Parsing CETA and TTIP

Author:
Patricia M. Goff
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In October 2013, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced that the Government of Canada had reached a "political agreement" with the European Union on the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). The timing of Mr. Harper's statement was not coincidental. Evidence suggests that talks between Canada and the European Union are actually continuing several months after his announcement, if only on technical elements. Nonetheless, it seems the Government of Canada wanted to signal that a successful end to Canada-EU talks was in sight, just as talks between the United States and the European Union were getting under way towards the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The Canadian government did not want to risk a redirection of European energies away from the Canadian negotiation toward their American counterparts.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Canada

783. What Drove the Mid-2000s' Explosiveness in Alternative Energy Stock Prices? Evidence from US, European and Global Indices

Author:
Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Philipp Kaufmann
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Soaring prices in European alternative energy stocks and their subsequent tumble have attracted attention from both investors and academics. This paper extends recent research to an international setting and analyzes whether the explosive price behaviour of the mid-2000s was driven by rising crude oil prices and an overall bullish market sentiment. Inflation-adjusted US alternative energy stock prices do not exhibit signs of explosiveness. By contrast, we find strong evidence of explosive price behaviour for European and global sector indices, even after controlling for a set of explanatory variables. Interestingly, while the sector indices plunged with the outbreak of the global financial crisis, idiosyncratic components continued to rise and did not start to decline until after world equity markets had already begun to recover in 2009. This finding suggests a substantial revaluation of alternative energy stock prices in light of intensifying sector competition and shrinking sales margins, and casts some doubts on the existence of a speculative bubble. Nevertheless, this paper observes temporary episodes of explosiveness between 2005 and 2007 followed by rapid collapses, indicating the presence of some irrational exuberance among investors.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

784. The Role of the Informal Economy in Addressing Urban Food Insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Elizabeth Fraser, Malambo Moonga, and Johanna Wilkes
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is facing high rates of urbanization and increasing food insecurity. The informal food economy addresses food insecurity by providing access to affordable food and significant employment opportunities to the urban poor in SSA. The Committee on World Food Security should recognize the informal food economy as a critical governance issue. Different policy approaches need to be taken into account to address the diverse needs of the informal food economy, including the needs of "survivalist" traders, larger constrained enterprises and female vendors. Municipalities in SSA often have restricted budgets, which hinder their ability to appropriately govern and support the local informal food economy. Increases in municipal budgets to align with food security needs in urban Africa should be considered as decentralization continues across SSA.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Labor Issues, and Food
Political Geography:
Africa

785. Southeast Asia's Regression From Democracy and Its Implications

Author:
Joshua Kurlantzick
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Between the late 1980s and the late 2000s, many countries in Southeast Asia were viewed, by global democracy analysts and Southeast Asians themselves, as leading examples of democratization in the developing world. By the late 2000s, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore all were ranked as "free" or "partly free" by the monitoring organization Freedom House, while Cambodia and, perhaps most surprisingly, Myanmar had both taken sizable steps toward democracy as well. Yet since the late 2000s, Southeast Asia's democratization has stalled and, in some of the region's most economically and strategically important nations, gone into reverse. Over the past ten years, Thailand has undergone a rapid and severe regression from democracy and is now ruled by a junta. Malaysia's democratic institutions and culture have regressed as well, with the long-ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition cracking down on dissent and trying to destroy what had been an emerging, and increasingly stable, two-party system. Singapore's transition toward contested politics has stalled. In Cambodia and Myanmar, hopes for dramatic democratic change have fizzled. Only the Philippines and Indonesia have stayed on track, but even in these two countries democratic consolidation is threatened by the persistence of graft, public distrust of democratic institutions, and continued meddling in politics by militaries.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

786. Gender equality and land administration: the case of Zambia

Author:
Rachel Spichiger and Edna Kabala
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Land, and in particular agricultural land, is central to livelhoods in rural Zambia. Zambia is characterised by a dual legal system of customary and statutory law and by dual land tenure, with state land and customary land. A first wave of socialist-oriented reforms took place after independence in 1964, which abolished previously existing freehold land in favour of leasehold. Subsequent changes in government policies under the influence of structural adjustment programmes and a new government in 1991 paved the way for a market-driven land reform. The 1995 Lands Act introduced the privatization of land in Zambia and provided for the conversion of customary into state land, with the hope of attracting investors. However, the Act has been unevenly implemented, at least in rural areas, in part due to problems plaguing the land administration institutions and their work, in part due to opposition to the main tenets of the Act from chiefs, the population and civil society. Civil society, with donor support, calls for more attention towards women's precarious situations with regard to access to and ownership of land under customary tenure, but it still expresses a desire for customary tenure to remain. However, civil society also recognizes that customary practices are often also discriminatory towards women who depend on male relatives for access to land.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Gender Issues, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Africa

787. Energy efficiency: the ever neglected priority of the European energy strategy

Author:
Tania Zgajewski
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Energy saving has been a stated policy objective of the EU since the 1970s. Presently, the 2020 target is a 20% reduction of EU energy consumption in comparison with current projections for 2020. This is one of the headline targets of the European Energy Strategy 2020 but efforts to achieve it remain slow and insufficient. The aim of this paper is to understand why this is happening.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Reform
Political Geography:
Japan and Europe

788. A Summary of the Liveability Ranking and Overview

Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
The concept of liveability is simple: it assesses which locations around the world provide the best or the worst living conditions. Assessing liveability has a broad range of uses, from benchmarking perceptions of development levels to assigning a hardship allowance as part of expatriate relocation packages. The Economist Intelligence Unit's liveability rating quantifies the challenges that might be presented to an individual's lifestyle in any given location, and allows for direct comparison between locations.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Health, and Human Welfare

789. The Fiscal Impact of Immigration

Author:
Alex Nowrasteh
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The fiscal impact of immigration—how immigrants and their descendants affect government budgets—is a widely debated and contentious issue. Economists overwhelmingly accept the economic gains of immigration, but are less certain about immigrants' impact on government budgets. Contention over this issue is fueled by the numerous methodologies and complexity of analysis that obscure the fiscal costs of immigration.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, Immigration, and Budget

790. Does Immigration Impact Economic Freedom?

Author:
Benjamin Powell, Alex Nowrasteh, J. R. Clark, Robert A. Lawson, and Ryan H. Murphy
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The economics literature generally finds a positive, but small, gain in income to native-born populations from immigrants and potentially large gains in world incomes. But immigrants can also impact a recipient nation's institutions. A growing empirical literature supports the importance of strong private property rights, a rule of law, and an environment of economic freedom for promoting long run prosperity. Although the literature on the impact of economic freedom on various social and economic outcomes is quite large, comparatively little work has tried to explain economic freedom as a dependent variable. This paper empirically examines how immigration impacts a region's policies and institutions. We find small but positive increases in institutional quality as a result of immigration.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, International Trade and Finance, and Immigration

791. The Impact of Asian Investment on Africa's Textile Industries

Author:
Tang Xiaoyang
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Asian investors' impact on Africa's cotton, textile, and apparel sectors may have profound consequences for the continent's industrialization and development. As southeast African countries seek to industrialize and build indigenous cotton-textile-apparel value chains, the interactions between Asian—particularly Chinese—investors and African companies become more and more complex. Indeed, Asian investors present both a challenge to and an opportunity for local industries, and southeast African countries need a clear vision and tailored policies to make the most of the opportunities. Asian investors' impact on Africa's cotton, textile, and apparel sectors may have profound consequences for the continent's industrialization and development. As southeast African countries seek to industrialize and build indigenous cotton-textile-apparel value chains, the interactions between Asian-particularly Chinese-investors and African companies become more and more complex. Indeed, Asian investors present both a challenge to and an opportunity for local industries, and southeast African countries need a clear vision and tailored policies to make the most of the opportunities.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

792. The Federal Reserve Engages the World (1970–2000): An Insider's Narrative of the Transition to Managed Floating and Financial Turbulence

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper traces the evolution of the Federal Reserve and its engagement with the global economy over the last three decades of the 20th century: 1970 to 2000. The paper examines the Federal Reserve's role in international economic and financial policy and analysis covering four areas: the emergence and taming of the great inflation, developments in US external accounts, foreign exchange analysis and activities, and external financial crises. It concludes that during this period the US central bank emerged to become the closest the world has to a global central bank.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

793. Demographic versus Cyclical Influences on US Labor Force Participation

Author:
William R. Cline and Jared Nolan
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper applies time series analysis to distinguish between cyclical and demographic causes of the decline of the labor force participation rate. Some public discussions suggest that the decline of US unemployment from its 2009 peak of 10 percent to about 6 percent by mid-2014 grossly exaggerates recovery because most of the decline reflects the exit of discouraged workers from the labor force. This study finds instead that one-half to two-thirds of the decline in labor force participation by about 3 percentage points from late 2007 to early 2014 is attributable to aging of the population. Although about one-third is found attributable to the lagged influence of high, and especially long-term, unemployment, going forward the potential rebound in the participation rate from recovery is projected to be approximately offset by further aging of the population.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, Labor Issues, and Population
Political Geography:
United States

794. The State of REDD+ Finance

Author:
Marigold Norman and Smita Nakhooda
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper presents a thorough synthesis of available data to illuminate the current global state of finance for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+). It adds to a growing body of work that seeks to understand the size and composition of finance for REDD+ initiatives, as well as the delivery of climate finance more generally. The analysis shows that aggregate pledges of both public and private finance are significant, at more than US $8.7 billion for the period between 2006 and March 2014, but the pace of new pledges slowed after 2010. The public sector contributes nearly 90% of reported REDD+ finance, with the preponderance of funding concentrated among a relatively small number of donors and recipient countries. The paper analyzes early experience with performance-based finance, although such finance represents less than two-fifths of pledges to date. The extent to which new institutions in the climate finance architecture such as the Green Climate Fund will provide a new and effective channel for increasing support for REDD+ remains to be seen.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Cooperation, and Politics

795. Self-Selection into Credit Markets: Evidence from Agriculture in Mali

Author:
Dean Karlan, Bram Thuysbaert, Christopher Udry, and Lori Beaman
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We partnered with a micro-lender in Mali to randomize credit offers at the village level. Then, in no-loan control villages, we gave cash grants to randomly selected households. These grants led to higher agricultural investments and profits, thus showing that liquidity constraints bind with respect to agricultural investment. In loan-villages, we gave grants to a random subset of farmers who (endogenously) did not borrow. These farmers have lower – in fact zero – marginal returns to the grants. Thus we find important heterogeneity in returns to investment and strong evidence that farmers with higher marginal returns to investment self-select into lending programs.
Topic:
Agriculture and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa

796. Rethinking Afghan Local Governance Aid After Transition

Author:
Frances Z. Brown
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The conclusion of the U.S.-led "surge" of 2009 onward and the closure of provincial recon¬struction teams and other local civil-military installations have affected how aid is delivered in Afghanistan's more remote and contested areas. The time is ripe for a recalibration of donor approaches to local governance and development in areas previously targeted by the surge. Specifically, foreign stakeholders should reexamine three central principles of their previous subnational governance strategy. First, donors should revise their conception of assisting service delivery from the previous approach, which often emphasized providing maximal inputs in a fragmented way, to a more restrained vision that stresses predictability and reliability and acknowledges the interlinked nature of politics, justice, and sectoral services in the eyes of the local population. Second, donors should reframe their goal of establishing linkages between the Afghan govern¬ment and population by acknowledging that the main obstacles to improving center-periph¬ery communication and execution are often political and structural rather than technical. Third, donors should revise the way they define, discuss, and measure local governance prog¬ress in contested areas, away from favoring snapshots of inputs and perceptions and toward capturing longer-term changes on the ground in processes, structures, and incentives. The coming political and development aid transition provides an overdue opportunity for Afghan governance priorities to come to the fore. At the same time, the ever growing chasm between Kabul's deliberations on the one hand and local governance as experienced in more remote, insurgency-wracked areas on the other presents renewed risks. In the short term, donors let the air out of the aid bubble carefully. In the long term, resolving Afghanistan's local governance challenges continues to demand sustained commitment and systematic execution.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

797. Why Puerto Rico's Economy Matters for U.S. Security

Author:
Jose J. Villamil
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Puerto Rico's economic situation circa 1950 was vastly different than today's. In the 1940s through the first half of the 60s, the island experienced a sustained boom, with annual growth rates on the order of 7 percent; the island was hailed as a model for developing countries. It instituted major reforms in government, economic and social programs, and the health sector. Puerto Rico, in coordination with the U.S. federal government, hosted thousands of observers from around the world who came to Puerto Rico to learn about its successful development model.
Topic:
Crime, Economics, Narcotics Trafficking, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

798. The 2014 Sochi Olympics

Author:
Sergey Markedonov
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
On February 7, 2014, the 22nd Winter Olympic Games will open in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi. Because these games will be the first Olympics hosted by Russia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, they will be more than a mere athletic competition—they possess a singular symbolic character, important to Russia and particularly to Russian president Vladimir Putin. On the eve of the 119th session of the International Olympic Committee in Guatemala on July 4, 2007, at which the decision on the host city for the 2014 games would be made, Putin was the main Russian lobbyist for the Sochi project.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia

799. Global Action toward Universal Health Coverage

Author:
Nellie Bristol
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
As national incomes have risen across diverse countries—along with the burden of noncommunicable diseases—demand has intensified for quality, affordable health services. Many countries today are actively seeking to bring about universal health coverage—ensuring quality health services for all at a price that does not create undue financial pressure for individuals seeking care. The effort has stirred expanded interest and guidance from international organizations such as the World Health Organization and the World Bank, and led to new platforms for developing countries to learn from each other. While universal health coverage will provide new funding and opportunities, including for the private sector, there is a need for dynamic, transparent negotiations among all health constituents, to forge enduring, feasible arrangements that ensure quality services reach all populations and make the best use of scarce health resources. Universal health coverage will remain a work in progress for many countries for many years. It will require grappling with considerable uncertainties and risks. It also has the potential to attract greater attention to health spending, health systems, and improved equity, advances that will benefit human development more broadly.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Health, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Brazil

800. Reforming India's Financial System

Author:
Ila Patnaik and Ajay Shah
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
India's financial system has long been inadequate. With an economy worth $2 trillion, the country's financial flaws are increasingly serious and outright dangerous. But fundamental change is under way. The government-backed Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission drafted the Indian Financial Code (IFC), a single unified law that replaces most existing financial law in India and is an important milestone in the development of state capacity. Now the government must work to adopt and implement the full code.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:
South Asia and India