Number of results to display per page
Search Results
3402. EARLY RESPONSES TO EARLY CONFLICT WARNINGS IN THE CAUCASUS
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade the South Caucasus region has faced bloody internal conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and to a lesser extent South Ossetia. It continues to display potential for instability as Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia exhibit the combined characteristics of war-torn societies and countries in transition. Given the geostrategic importance of the Caucasus and the strong interests of regional and international powers—particularly in the potential energy output—renewed armed confrontations would have serious economic, political and security implications across national borders. Moreover, spill-over into other volatile zones could bring about the open intervention of powerful neighbors, such as Iran, Iraq, Russia and Turkey, and could threaten larger peace and security arrangements.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Asia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Abkhazia
3403. Russia's Shrinking Role in the South
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The perception that the disintegration of the Soviet Union constituted a major challenge to Russia's security is of a political and psychological, rather than an economic nature. The countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia—Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—are neither an irreplaceable resource base for the Russian economy nor the only available market for its non-competitive products. Any efforts to see it otherwise will induce the region to strengthen its economic and military security with the help of outside powers as a buffer against Russia's ambitions for greater control.
- Topic:
- Security and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Kazakhstan, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Angola
3404. State Power and the Asian Crisis
- Author:
- Linda Weiss
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
- Abstract:
- The Asian financial crisis has re-opened the debate about the role of the state in the region's industrialisation. Just when there seemed to be growing acknowledgment across the economic and political disciplines that certain kinds of state involvement were vital to the rapid upgrading of the Northeast Asian economies and that understanding what made states effective or ineffective was a crucial issue, along came the financial hurricane. Profound disarray of an economic and social nature has been the most immediate and important consequence of this watershed event. Theoretical disarray has followed closely in its path. This paper seeks to inject some theoretical rigour into the discussion of the Asian crisis. State power in the Asian setting - whether and in what way the state's transformative capacity is weak or robust - and how it relates to the impact of international markets is central to the argument that follows.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Northeast Asia
3405. The Tobin Tax: How to Make it Real. Towards a Socially Responsible and Democratic System of Global Governance
- Author:
- Heikki Patomäki
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the 1970's James Tobin proposed a low rate tax on financial transactions of currencies. This tax would make many speculative movements unprofitable and the financial system less volatile and sensitive to daily political news and anticipation of economic policy changes. Consequently, it would create space for more autonomous economic policies of states.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and United Nations
3406. Heterogeneity and Evolution of Expectations: a Model of Currency Crisis
- Author:
- Jasmina Arifovic and Paul Masson
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- A model of a portfolio allocation between mature and emerging markets is simulated with heterogeneous expectations, imitation, and experimentation. Solutions produce periodic crises. The predictions of the model are compared to a representative-agent, rational expectations model with multiple equilibria.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
3407. Emissions Trading, Capital Flows and the Kyoto Protocol
- Author:
- Martin Ross, Robert Shackleton, Peter Wilcoxen, and Warwick J. McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- We use an econometrically estimated multi-region, multi-sector general equilibrium model of the world economy to examine the effects of the tradable emissions permit system proposed in the 1997 Kyoto protocol, under various assumptions about that extent of international permit trading. We focus, in particular, on the effects of the system on international trade and capital flows. Our results suggest that consideration of these flows significantly affects estimates of the domestic effects of the emissions mitigation policy, compared with analyses that ignore international capital flows.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
3408. The Crisis in Asia: An Empirical Assessment
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The economies of South East Asia and Korea have been shaken by a financial and economic crisis that has enveloped the region since mid 1997. There are competing explanations for the cause of the crisis however most commentators would agree that a major shock that impacted on the countries has been a dramatic increase in the perceived risks of investing in these economies. This paper explores the impact of a re-evaluation of the risk in the Asian economies focussing on the differential real consequences of a temporary versus more permanent rise in risk. It contributes to our understanding of the possible consequences of the Asia crisis by applying a global simulation model that captures both the flow of goods as well as international capital flows between countries. The real impacts on the Asian economies of a rise in risk perceptions in the model are large and consistent with observed adjustment. However the spillovers to the rest of the world are relatively small because the loss in export demand that accompanies the crisis in Asia is offset by a fall in long term interest rates as capital flows out of Asia into the non-Asian OECD economies. Thus strong domestic demand in economies such as the US induced by the general equilibrium effects of the reallocation of financial capital can more than offset the consequences of lower export growth. The analysis also highlights the impacts on global trade balances reflecting the movements of global capital and points to both potential problems and lesson for policymakers over the coming years.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
3409. The Global Economic Impacts of Trade and Financial Reform in China
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin and KK Tang
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Despite the setbacks from the recent Asian currency crisis, the ascendancy of Asia as an economic centre of world economic activity is likely to continue into the 21st century. A key issue that will shape the role of Asia, and indeed the shape of the world economy in the 21st century, is the economic development of China. To date China has successfully weathered the currency storm in Asia and continues on a program of economic reform. If anything, the problems of Japan and Korea provide powerful lessons for other countries undergoing rapid economic growth and structural change. These lessons include the importance of a well developed financial sector with lending and investment decisions based on market signals rather than government directives. Whether China can further integrate smoothly into global markets and sustain the fast growth of the last few decades will be a crucial development in the world economy. In this paper, we explore the impacts of continued Chinese economic reform with a focus on the role of international financial flows both in the adjustment within China as well as in the transmission of Chinese reforms to the rest of the world.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
3410. Regional and Multilateral Trade Liberalization: The Effects on Trade, Investment and Welfare
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the impact on economies of trade liberalization under alternative regional and multilateral arrangements: unilateral liberalization; liberalization as part of the ASEAN regional grouping; liberalization as part of the APEC regional grouping; or liberalization as part of a multilateral trade liberalization regime. The paper is based on a Dynamic Intertemporal General Equilibrium model (DIGEM) called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model. It is shown that the long run gains from a country's own liberalization tend to be large relative to the gains from other countries liberalizing although this varies across countries. It is also shown that there is a significant difference between the effects on GDP (production location) and the effects on consumption per capita of the alternative liberalization approaches across countries. The timing of liberalization is also shown to matter. With open capital markets the gains from credibly announced trade liberalization are realized before the reforms are put in place because there is a rise in global investment which raises the global capital stock. In addition there is a reallocation of capital via financial market adjustment. This paper also demonstrates that for some economies, there can be short run adjustment costs to trade liberalization because resources cannot be instantly reallocated across sectors in an economy. These adjustment costs from own liberalization can be reduced if more countries also liberalize. The nature of the dynamic adjustment suggests that other macroeconomic policies may play an important role during the early period of phased-in trade liberalization.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
3411. Rapid Economic Growth in China: Implications for the World Economy
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin and Yiping Huang
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Rapid growth of the Chinese economy in the past decade and its potential for strong growth into the foreseeable future have caused anxieties in the rest of the world. Some commentators see Chinese growth wholly in terms of competition for trade and investment opportunities with other developing economies and a major cause of structural adjustments in the advanced industrialized economies. In particular there have been warnings of severe consequences for international agricultural markets. In this paper we use a dynamic general equilibrium model called the G-CUBED model (developed by McKibbin and Wilcoxen) to explore possible future paths of the Chinese economy based on projections of population growth, sectoral productivity growth, energy efficiency and technical change in the Chinese economy. This model captures not only the composition of the direct trade impacts of developments in the Chinese economy but also the implications of the endogenous flows of financial capital on macroeconomic adjustment in the world economy. The study focuses on the period from 1990 to 2020. Rather than being a problem for the world economy, we find strong growth in China is beneficial for the world economy directly through raising world incomes.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
3412. The Transmission of Productivity and Investment Shocks in the Asia Pacific Region
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- An important aspect of macroeconomic interdependence in the Asia Pacific region is the adjustment of trade and current account balances in response to changes in saving and investment rates in individual economies. Greater trade flows, reliance on imported intermediate goods as well as more integrated capital markets imply that shifts in private or public saving and investment rates in an economy in the region can potentially have large impacts on other economies. This paper explores the quantitative nature of these linkages by focusing on a number of shocks within the context of a new dynamic multi-sector global model called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model (AP-GCUBED). This model integrates sectoral adjustment with macroeconomic interdependence including explicit treatment of capital flows to explore the implications of a variety of productivity and investment shocks in the Asia Pacific Region. The first shock considered is a permanent decline in private investment in Japan. The second shock is a temporary rise in total factor productivity growth in China. The fall in Japanese investment is found to have a significant effect on trade flows and financial flows in the region whereas the rise in Chinese productivity has a quite different effect on the region.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
3413. North Korea: How Much Reform and Whose Characteristics?
- Author:
- Heather Smith
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This paper is the first of a three part project on economic reform on the Korean Peninsula. In this first paper, I focus on the question which has been subject to considerable recent debate, namely whether collapse of North Korea is imminent. In accessing this question the paper discusses the three structural bottlenecks now thought to be severely constraining the North Korean economy following a series of external shocks in the late 1980s, food shortages, energy constraints and a limited capacity to earn foreign exchange. Much speculation has focused on the deterioration in the food economy and that a prolongation of current food shortages will see North Korea collapse. One contribution of this paper lies in its attempt to analyze North Korean agricultural production and food consumption patterns using data made available by North Korea to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization. Several anomalies are found between this data and recent World Food Program assessments of food conditions and estimates of nutritional requirements which suggest caution in drawing a too deterministic link between current food shortages and collapse. The paper then discusses the role of international and regional players in prolonging North Korea's economic survival. In particular, the terms under which North Korea signed onto the 1994 Agreed Framework, a return to favorable trading terms with China, and North Korea's attempts aimed at expanding economic ties with the international community, could sustain North Korea at subsistence levels for the next 5 years at least. If collapse is not imminent in the short to medium term, then the policy implications that emerge from such a scenario are clear: that the international community will need to continue to pursue a policy approach of managing tension reduction and the integration of North Korea into the international community. Whether the North Korea regime will embrace fundamental reforms needed to ensure longer term survival remains difficult to judge. In the final section of the paper, several reasons are advanced as to why the window of opportunity for North Korea to embrace reform is now greater than at any time in the past.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and East Asia
3414. The Macroeconomic Experience of Japan Since 1990: An Empirical Investigation
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This paper outlines the macroeconomic experience of the Japanese economy since 1990. The MSG2 multi-country model is used to determine the extent to which the strong yen and growth experience of Japan over this period was due to underlying trends in the Japanese economy and to what extent shocks such as changes in the settings of monetary and fiscal policies in Japan and overseas, as well as the Kobe earthquake, played a role. It is shown that many of the key features of the Japanese economy over this period can be attributed to inappropriate macroeconomic policy settings in Japan as well as reflecting long term trends due to population changes and a maturing of the Japanese economy. In particular, it is shown that announcing expansionary fiscal policy in advance of implementation and exaggerating the extent of actual stimulus, tended to appreciate the yen and raise long term real interest rates which further reduced real GDP growth over the period. The extent to which macroeconomic policy rather than entrenched structural problems can explain the experience suggests that future prospects for the Japanese economy are not as bleak as sometimes predicted. Growth is unlikely to return to the high levels experienced in previous decades because of the maturing of the Japanese economy and low future population growth in Japan. This paper projects growth to be sustainable at around 2.5% per year over the next decade and a continual appreciation of the yen in both real and nominal terms.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
3415. Replacing Potemkin Capitalism: Russia's Need for a Free-Market Financial System
- Author:
- Kurt Schuler and George A. Selgin
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- On August 17, 1998, Russia devalued the ruble and stopped payment on its government debt, creating a financial crisis that continues today. Some observers have blamed the financial crisis, and the poor performance of the Russian economy generally, on government policies that they claim are rigidly laissez faire. However, a closer look at the Russian financial system reveals that it remains fundamentally socialist, though it has superficial capitalist features.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
3416. In Praise and Criticism of Mexico's Pension Reform
- Author:
- L. Jacobo Rodriguez
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The privatization of Mexico's government-run pay-as-you-go social security system, which went into effect in July 1997, is the Ernesto Zedillo administration's most important structural reform. It is a measure that, if successful, will help bring much-needed social and economic stability. The Mexican peso crisis of 1994–95 underscore d the fragility of Mexico's economy, its need for independent institutions, and its need for a large pool of long-term domestic savings. An increase in the rate of private savings in Mexico, which this reform will promote, would make the Mexican economy less dependent on short-term fluctuations of international capital flows and, thus, more stable. More important still, the privatization of social security will erect one of the basic pillars of a free society by turning Mexico into a country of property-owning workers.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and Privatization
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
3417. U.S. Assistance for Market Reforms: Foreign Aid Failures in Russia and the Former Soviet Bloc
- Author:
- Janine R. Wedel
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, the governments of the United States and other Western countries have provided massive aid to promote a transition to the free market in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. But aid for market reforms in the region has been largely ineffective. Whether provided in the form of technical assistance, grants to political groups or nongovernmental organizations, loans and guarantees to the private sector, or direct financial aid to post-communist governments, that aid has been plagued by a number of problems. The failed $22.6 billion bailout of Russia by the International Monetary Fund in July 1998 only confirmed the flawed nature of the aid-for-reform approach.
- Topic:
- Economics and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
3418. The Viability of Advanced Welfare States in the International Economy: Vulnerabilities and Options
- Author:
- Fritz W. Scharpf
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- The paper represents a preliminary and partial analysis of the information collected in a comparative 12-country study of the adjustment of national employment and social-welfare policies to the increasing internationalization of product and capital markets. After the postwar decades, when national governments were still able to control their economic boundaries, the first international challenge came in the form of the oil-price crisis of 1973/74, which confronted industrial economies with the double threat of cost-push inflation and demand-gap unemployment. It could be met if countries were able to achieve a form of “Keynesian concertation” in which expansionary monetary and fiscal policies would defend employment while union wage restraint could be relied on to fight inflation. For this solution, “corporatist” industrial-relations institutions were a necessary but not a sufficient condition.
- Topic:
- Economics and Industrial Policy
3419. Ukraine: Challenges of the Continuing Transition
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The views expressed are those of individuals and do not represent official US intelligence or policy positions. The NIC routinely sponsors such unclassified conferences with outside experts to gain knowledge and insight to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
3420. Northeast Asia: Static but Stable
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This memorandum was prepared by the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia based on a meeting held on 7 July 1999. The National Intelligence Council (NIC) routinely sponsors meetings with outside experts to gain knowledge and insights to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in this meeting summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia
3421. Federalism in Russia: How Is It Working
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This conference was sponsored by the National Intelligence Council and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the US Department of State. John Battilega of the Science Applications International Corporation served as rapporteur. The views expressed in this conference summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
3422. Public Housing in Washington, D.C.: With Moscow in Mind
- Author:
- Vyacheslav Glazychev
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- The pitiful state of public housing in Washington, D.C., was well known in 1994, when Vyacheslav Glazychev, president and founder of the Academy of the Urban Environment in Moscow, was here trying to understand the function of the Advisory Neighborhood Commissions and in 1997 when he returned to spend several months as a Guest Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Based on his observations of Washington, D.C. and his extensive experience in Moscow, he found that despite the obvious differences in handling the issue of public housing in Washington, D.C. and Moscow, at least one thing is comparable: in both cities money spent on maintenance and repair has been insufficient while priority has long been given to new construction.
- Topic:
- Economics and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
3423. Challenging Traditional Participation in Brazil: The Goals of Participatory Budgeting
- Author:
- Pedro Jacobi
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Using the mechanism of “participatory budgeting” implemented in the city of Porto Alegre, Pedro Jacobi analyses a new practice of resource allocation in several Brazilian urban areas. He comes to the conclusion that participatory budgeting is an effective tool in the democratization of the city's management— helping to break old patterns of clientelist relations. According to Jacobi, the new mechanism promotes decentralization of municipal decision-making and increases public control over the city's investment policies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- South America and Latin America
3424. The Legacy of Habitat II: Issues of Governance
- Author:
- K.C Sivaramakrishnan
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Debate on how the Habitat II Conference in Istanbul influenced thinking on issues of urban governance will have to be preceded by some understanding of what was sought and what was achieved at the conference. The Istanbul conference was an international “happening” that began with a series of events before and during the conference itself. Habitat II adopted a Global Plan of Action (GPA) and an Istanbul Declaration (ID) as the official documents of the conference, summarizing the discussions and the outcomes. This paper is limited to the discussions and recommendations of the GPA on the issues of urban governance, which are gathered mainly in its part D, under the title “Capacity Building and Institutional Development.” To what extent does this chapter reflect an understanding of the realities of urban governance? What is the assessment of the new challenges in this regard, in the context of major political, economic, and social shifts across the world in the wake of increased globalization of trade, investment, and information?
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Istanbul
3425. The Political Economy of Energy Taxes, OECD 1973-1995: The Role of Political Institutions, Public Opinion and Ideology (A Pre-Test)
- Author:
- Svetlana Valerie Morozova
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- The paper presents a theoretical cross-national study of energy taxation, concentrating on the heavy fuel oil tax. It theoretically investigates the effects that public opinion, institutional corporatism and left-wing ideology may have on the cross-national variance in manufacturing energy taxes, controlling for the plausible influence of budget deficits, energy import-dependency and deindustrialization. It is hypothesized that in more corporatist nations public opinion supportive of energy conservation, in combination with the Left-wing ideology of governing legislative coalition, will lead to higher energy taxes. Deindustrialization, proxied by the declining employment and output value in/of energy-intensive industries is believed to be responsible for a certain share of energy tax variance in the OECD countries. Finally, it is argued that energy import-dependency brings affects national manufacturing energy taxes.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Politics
3426. The Myth of Meritocracy? An Inquiry into the Social Origins of Britain's Business Leaders Since 1850
- Author:
- Tom Nicholas
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Recent sociological analysis of the extent to which modern British society has become more meritocratic raises important conceptual issues for the recurrent economic history debate concerning the social mobility of Britain's business leaders. The majority view in this debate is that high social status backgrounds have predominated in the profiles of businessmen throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. François Crouzet's The First Industrialists reveals that Britain's industrial pioneers were drawn largely from the middle-and upper-classes, and that the image of the self-made man as the mainstay of the Industrial Revolution is a myth. Stanworth and Giddens identify a prevalence of 'elite self-recruitment' among deceased company chairmen active in large corporations and banks between 1900 and 1970. Scott's work on the upper classes distinguishes a 'core' business stratum characterised by kinship and privilege. Bringing together a range of research on the social origins of businessmen in the twentieth century, Jeremy asserts that 'it was rare for sons of the semi-skilled and unskilled to rise to national leadership in Britain'. The typical twentieth century business leader is upper-or upper middle-class by social origin, rising through the public schools and Oxbridge into the higher echelons of the business community.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Britain and United Kingdom
3427. Income Distribution and Convergence: the European Experience, 1870-1992
- Author:
- Philip Epstein
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Economic convergence has emerged as one of the key debates in the theoretical and historical literature over the last decade. Galor identified three forms of long run per capita income convergence: absolute convergence, whereby convergence occurs independently of the initial conditions facing each economy; conditional convergence, whereby convergence occurs among economies which have identical structural characteristics, independently of their initial conditions; and club convergence, whereby convergence occurs only if the structural characteristics are identical and initial conditions are also similar. Of these, the absolute convergence hypothesis has been discredited whereas there is empirical support for both the conditional convergence and club convergence hypotheses. The club convergence hypothesis, in particular, has much to offer to economic historians. It stresses the importance of both the initial conditions facing each economy and the structural and institutional features of the economy (e.g. preferences, technologies, rates of population growth, government policies, etc.).
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
3428. Industrial Growth Revisited: Manufacturing Output in Greece during the Interwar Period
- Author:
- Christodoulakim Olga
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Although industrial production and growth in Greece during the interwar period has attracted considerable attention, there has not been any serious challenge either in qualitative or quantitative terms to the orthodoxy established in the period itself. The literature usually sees the 1920s as a landmark in the industrialisation of the country and a time when Greek manufacturing achieved an "unprecedented prominence". The momentum given to industrial expansion in the 1920s was encouraged by institutional changes brought about by government policy aimed at reducing social tensions stemming from unemployed refugees gathered in urban areas, by the depreciation of the drachma and heavy tariffs. The swift demographic changes that happened in the country following the Asia Minor debacle, however, have played a pivotal role in the literature in explaining industrial growth in the 1920s. According to conventional belief, the arrival of the refugees created the preconditions for an industrial expansion in the 1920s. The sudden increase in the population of the country has been linked to industrial growth in three ways: firstly, the abundance of cheap labour gathered in urban centres exerted downward pressures on wages; secondly, the refugees it is argued, brought with them entrepreneurial skills, their skilled labour, in short contributing to an improvement of the human capital in Greece, and took initiatives that promoted industrial development; finally, the sudden expansion of the domestic market because of the increase in the population boosted demand which consequently stimulated industrial production. The carpet industry, an industry that emerge in the 1920s and was mainly run by refugees, is usually mentioned as a representative example of the impact that refugees had in promoting new industries and entrepreneurial skills in the country.
- Topic:
- Economics and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Greece, and Asia
3429. Nutrition and Economic Destitution in Northern Ghana, 1930-1957. A Historical Perspective on Nutritional Economics
- Author:
- Jérùme Destombes
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- This research takes Iliffe's suggestion seriously. For the student of Sub- Saharan Africa who has decided to explore a plausible route of causation between nutrition and poverty, the most urgent task is to disregard the initial discouragement triggered by the scarcity of references. The lack of relevant data is commonly pointed out and the contrast with the powerful insights made throughout the last decade by development economists is striking: poverty issues have been comprehensively investigated with behavioural models that strive to capture household strategies to cope with nutritional inadequacy and scarcity of resources. Although these strategies potentially have immense effects on welfare, development and the effectiveness of public policies, there have been few attempts to examine nutrition in less-developed countries through an economic history lens.
- Topic:
- Economics and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Ghana
3430. Latin American Trade Strategy at Century's End
- Author:
- Carol Wise
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- This paper tackles the question of trade strategy and differential economic performance in Latin America, with a focus on the four countries -- Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico -- most important for the successful completion of a full Western Hemispheric integration scheme. The analysis distinguishes between a “standard” market strategy that assigns the task of economic adjustment to market forces and a “competitive” strategy that more actively employs a range of public policies to facilitate adjustment and correct for instances of market failure. The choices of strategy are explored against the backdrop of international pressures, government-business relations, and institutional reform within the state. Two main conclusions are drawn: first, the competitive strategy strongly correlates with more favorable macro-and microeconomic outcomes and, second, mediocre economic performance under a standard market strategy has undermined the spirit of collective action that will be necessary to forge ahead at the hemispheric level.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile
3431. Economic Stability and the World Economy
- Author:
- Gordon Brown
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Only a year ago, an increasingly turbulent and inadequately supervised financial system threatened global instability.Since the height of the financial instability last september, the world has taken rapid and decisive action and the world has started to put in place new long term disciplines to promote greater stability.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, America, and Europe
3432. Transcript: World Economic Update III
- Author:
- Daniel K. Tarullo, John Lipsky, Arturo Porzecanski, and Bruce Steinberg
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Mr. Daniel K. Tarullo (Linda J. Wachner Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Economic Policy, Council on Foreign Relations): ...(Joined in progress) In the past World Economic Update sessions, we have not paid quite as much attention to Latin America, and in light of recent developments, it seems in need of some attention. We are pleased to have with us this morning three distinguished panelists: to your far right, John Lipsky, the chief economist at Chase Manhattan; sitting next to me, Arturo Porzecanski, the managing director at ING Barings and the Americas chief economist; and then to your far left, Bruce Steinberg, chief economist at Merrill Lynch.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, South America, Latin America, Central America, and North America
3433. Transcript: World Economic Update II
- Author:
- Daniel K. Tarullo, Maureen F. Allyn, Roger M. Kubarych, and John P. Lipsky
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Mr. Daniel K. Tarullo (Linda J. Wachner Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Economic Policy, Council on Foreign Relations): We are on the record, unlike many Council events, so anything that you say in question or answer format may well be recorded elsewhere. Secondly, we're not going to begin with speeches but move right into a discussion format of questions and answers.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
3434. Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Nordic Perspective on the Dutch Disease
- Author:
- Thorvaldur Gylfason
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper begins by offering a quick glance of the Nordic economies and of some aspects of their economic growth performance and natural resource dependence since 1970. Thereafter, it reviews some of the main symptoms of the Dutch disease, and then considers whether these symptoms are observable in some of the Nordic countries in view of their abundant natural resources. The experience of Iceland and its fish seems an obvious point of departure. The paper then discusses the less obvious case of Norway and its oil (and fish!) and, at last, also reviews some possible linkages between forest resources and economic growth in Finland.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Finland, Norway, and Dutch
3435. Development Discontinuities: Leaders and Intermediaries in Producers' Associations
- Author:
- Tito Bianchi
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The development literature considers associations an important economic development tool that allows producers to pursue their economic welfare collectively and through participatory means. This paper comparatively analyses the experience of three associations of agricultural producers in the underdeveloped regions of Brazil and Italy that were successful in this economic development task. Their experience, however, challenges a commonly held view about the participatory nature of associations.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Brazil, South America, and Latin America
3436. Resource-Led Growth — A Long-Term Perspective: The Relevance of the 1870-1914 Experience for Today's Developing Economies
- Author:
- Ronald Findlay and Mats Lundahl
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Resource-Led Growth – A Long-Term Perspective surveys the 1870-1914 experience of growth in resource-rich economies: the so-called regions of recent settlement, some tropical countries and some mineral-based export economies. First, three contrasting stylized views of resource-led development are presented. Thereafter the picture of international trade in primary products and the migration of production factors between 1870 and 1914 is sketched. The third section presents some models that may be used to analyse trade and factor movements in the context of resource-rich (staples) economies and provides some details of the experience of fifteen countries: Canada, the United States, Australia and Argentina among the regions of recent settlement, Brazil, Costa Rica, Colombia, Ceylon, Malaya, Burma, Siam and the Gold Coast in the tropical group, and Bolivia, Chile and South Africa among the mineral exporters.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, South Africa, Burma, Chile, and Bolivia
3437. Group Behaviour and Development
- Author:
- Frances Stewart, Judith Heyer, and Rosemary Thorp
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- A very large amount of activity occurs within groups (that is within families, firms, co-operatives, communities or governments). Yet most economic analysis focuses on market transactions between these agents. The purpose of the study is to analyse within group behaviour. Evidence suggests some groups perform well from the perspective of efficiency, equity and well-being, while others perform poorly. The study aims to identify the main causes for these different outcomes, developing a preliminary analysis of modes of group behaviour, and influences on them.
- Topic:
- Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets
3438. Economic Theories of the Household: A Critical Review
- Author:
- Päivi Mattila-Wiro
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The aim of this paper is to review the principal assumptions and aspects of the unitary household model and collective models of household behaviour. Empirical studies are presented to assess whether the theories can offer adequate descriptions of household behaviour and to examine the types of policy implications that can be drawn from these. The paper concludes that the models reviewed lack the analytical tools to provide an understanding of the reality of households. Theories are unrealistic and therefore are of little use in the design of policies or projects which endeavour to help people
- Topic:
- Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets
3439. Inequality in Income and Access to Education: A Cross-Country Analysis
- Author:
- Daniele Checchi
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In the current debate on the relationship between inequality in income distribution and growth one of the possible link works through the access to education. After reviewing this debate, a formal model shows how the imperfection of financial markets makes educational choices dependent on the distribution of family incomes. This leads to two testable predictions in the analysis of aggregate data on school enrolments: a negative (linear) relation with the Gini coefficient on incomes distribution; and a positive dependence on public resources invested in education and/or on skill premium in the labour market. These predictions are then tested on a (unbalanced) panel of 102 countries for the period 1960-90. The main findings of this analysis are that, once we control for the degree of development with the (log of) per capita output, financial constraints seem mainly relevant in limiting the access to secondary education. However, when considering gender differences, there is evidence that female participation in education is more strongly conditioned by family wealth, starting from primary education. On the contrary there is no clear evidence of a relevant impact of invested resources, but at the tertiary level.
- Topic:
- Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets
3440. Liberalization, Globalization, and Income Distribution
- Author:
- Giovanni Andrea Cornia
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Recent mainstream analyses of changes in income distribution over the post World War II period have concluded that income inequality within countries tends to be stable, that there is no strong association between growth and inequality and that, therefore, poverty is best reduced through growth-oriented, rather than distributive, policies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and International Political Economy
3441. Wage Reform, Soft Budget Constraints and Competition
- Author:
- Jian Sun
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of the Chinese economic reforms in 1978, there has been a series of effort to reform the labour compensation practice in state-owned enterprises to strengthen the link between pay and productivity. Despite the reforms, however, rapid increases in wage rates occurred in state-owned enterprises. Moreover, although state-owned enterprises have much lower productivity gains than non-state enterprises, they pay substantially higher wages and have faster wage growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
3442. The Asian Currency Crisis: Origins, Lessons and Future Outlook
- Author:
- Abdur Chowdhury
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- What started in the summer of 1997 as a regional economic and financial crisis in East and Southeast Asia had developed into a global financial crisis within the span of a year. This crisis followed the crisis in the European Monetary System in 1992–3 and the Mexican peso crisis in 1994–5. However, unlike the previous two crises, the scale and depth of the Asian crisis surprised everyone. One obvious reason for this is East and Southeast Asia's track record of economic success. Since the 1960s, no other group of countries in the world has produced more rapid economic growth or such a dramatic reduction in poverty. Given so many years of sustained economic performance the obvious question is: how could events in Asia unfold as they did?
- Topic:
- Economics and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia
3443. The Weightless Economy in Economic Development
- Author:
- Danny Quah
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Can the increasing significance of knowledge-products in national income—the growing weightless economy—influence economic development? Those technologies reduce "distance" between consumers and knowledge production. This paper analyzes a model embodying such a reduction. The model shows how demand-side attributes—consumer attitudes on complex goods; training, education, and skills for consumption (rather than production)—can importantly affect patterns of economic growth and development. Evidence from the failed Industrial Revolution in 14th-century China illustrates the empirical relevance of the analysis.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- China
3444. Republika Srpska in The Post-Kosovo Era: Collateral Damage and Transformation
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Repercussions from Kosovo continue to shake Republika Srpska (RS), and may prove a catalyst for further transformation and reform. The war's collateral damage included severance of trade ties with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY); a dramatic rise in unemployment; a sharp drop in production and state revenues; and a tide of Serbian refugees from FRY into RS.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Migration, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
3445. Why Will No One Invest In Bosnia and Herzegovina?
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The donor countries hoped the governments of Bosnia and Herzegovina would use the promised $ 5.1 Billion post-war reconstruction aid to undertake the structural changes necessary to transition from communism to capitalism. As donor-aid diminished, private investment would replace it, stimulated by structural reforms. Unfortunately, this has not been the case. Indeed, interviews with Bosnian and foreign businessmen show a common reluctance to invest in BiH.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
3446. Macedonia Update: Challenges and Choices for the New Government
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The new Macedonian government marked its first hundred days in office in early March. Formed by the Macedonian Internal Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), the Democratic Alternative (DA), and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) after the last parliamentary elections in October and November 1998, the government is headed by VMRO- DPMNE Chairman Ljubco Georgievski and has a comfortable majority of 73 out of 120 seats in the current parliament.
- Topic:
- Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
3447. Macedonia:"New Faces In Skopje"
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The recent parliamentary elections and the change of government in Macedonia in many respects are a landmark in the country's development. The smooth transition of power from one political camp to another and the fact that the "radicals" from both major ethnic groups rather than the more moderate parties form the new government are significant in themselves. If the new government manages to solve Macedonia's problems, it might also have repercussions throughout the region. This report, prepared by ICG's field analyst in Skopje, looks back and draws lessons from the elections and the formation of the new government, looks ahead at the key policy changes facing the new administration, and assesses the capacity of the ruling coalition to meet those challenges.
- Topic:
- Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
3448. The State Of Albania
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Premier Pandeli Majko's new coalition government is slowly consolidating its hold over the administration, though the overall power of the government remains weak after the country was rocked in September by the worst political violence since the uprising of March 1997. Within the cabinet the deputy premier Ilir Meta has emerged as the key power in most decision-making and policy implementation. The new government consists of representatives of the Socialist Party (PS), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Union of Human Rights Party (PBDNj - this party represents the ethnic Greek minority), Democratic Alliance (AD), and the small Agrarian Party (AP). The largest opposition grouping the Democratic Party (DP), led by former president Sali Berisha, does not recognise the legitimacy of the Socialist-led government, is continuing its boycott of parliament and staging street rallies to push for early elections.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Albania
3449. The Globalization of Services: What Has Happened? What Are the Implications?
- Author:
- Gary Hufbauer and Tony Warren
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Globalization has affected all facets of the world economy. This includes services, which in most economies are the single largest contributor to economic growth and employment. However, despite its importance to national output, the impact of globalization on services is only recently receiving the attention of researchers and policy-makers.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
3450. Hazards and Precautions: Tales of International Finance
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Erika Wada
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In the wake of financial crises in Mexico (1994-95), Asia (1997-98), Russia (1998) and Brazil (1998-99), respected observers have questioned the benefits of wide-open international capital markets (Bhagwati, 1998; Krugman, 1998; Rodrik, 1998; Eichengreen, 1999). Our purpose is to identify true hazards and suggest appropriate precautions.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Asia, Brazil, and Mexico
3451. Does Talk Matter After All? Inflation Targeting And Central Bank Behavior
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Since 1990, a number of countries have adopted inflation targeting as their declared monetary strategy. Interpretations of the significance of this movement, however, have differed widely. To some, inflation targeting mandates the single-minded, rule-like pursuit of price stability without regard for other policy objectives; to others, inflation targeting represents nothing more than the latest version of cheap talk by central banks unable to sustain monetary commitments. Advocates of inflation targeting, including the adopting central banks themselves, have expressed the view that the transparency and communication of the inflation targeting framework grant the central bank greater short-run flexibility in pursuit of its long-run inflation goal.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
3452. Modeling Korean Unification
- Author:
- Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Tao Wang
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- For North Korea, product market integration would generate large welfare gains, sufficient to end the famine. Additional gains could be had through military demobilization. For the South, the impact of product market integration would be trivial, but the impact of factor market integration would be considerable, affecting the composition of output, distribution of income, and rate of growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Israel, East Asia, and Korea
3453. Sovereign Liquidity Crisis: The Strategic Case For A Payments Standstill
- Author:
- Marcus Miller and Lei Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Is sovereign borrowing so different from corporate debt that there is no need for bankruptcy-style procedures to protect debtors? With the waiver of immunity, sovereign debtors who already face severe disruption from short-term creditors grabbing their currency reserves are also exposed to litigious creditors trying to seize what assets they can in a 'race of the vultures'.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
3454. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise
- Author:
- Philip Manow
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped there-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
3455. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise
- Author:
- Philip Manow
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped the re-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
3456. The Nonproliferation Regime under Siege
- Author:
- George Bunn
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The nuclear nonproliferation regime was challenged in 1998 by nuclear-weapon tests in India and Pakistan, by medium-range missile tests in those countries and in Iran and North Korea, by Iraq's defiance of UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to complete its disclosure of efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and by the combination of “loose nukes” and economic collapse in Russia. Additional threats to the regime's vitality came in 1999 from the erosion of American relations with both China and Russia that resulted from NATO's 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia—with additional harm to relations with China resulting from U.S. accusations of Chinese nuclear espionage and Taiwan's announcement that it was a state separate from China despite its earlier acceptance of a U.S.-Chinese “one China” agreement. Major threats to the regime also came from the continued stalemate on arms-control treaties in the Russian Duma and the U.S. Senate, from a change in U.S. policy to favor building a national defense against missile attack, and from a Russian decision to develop a new generation of small tactical nuclear weapons for defense against conventional attack.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Korea
3457. Climate Change and the Transformation of World Energy Supply
- Author:
- Steve Fetter
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- In December 1997, world attention turned to Kyoto, Japan, where parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) negotiated a protocol to reduce the greenhouse-gas emissions of the industrialized countries by 5 percent below 1990 levels over the next ten to fifteen years. The agreement has been attacked from both sides. Environmental groups assert that much deeper reductions are urgently needed. Opponents claim that the proposed reductions are either unnecessary or premature, would curtail economic growth, or would be unfair or ineffective without similar commitments by developing countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Japan
3458. The Chechen Problem: Sources, Developments and Future Prospects
- Author:
- Alexandru Liono
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The political, economic and social situation in Chechnya is a matter of concern for all the analysts of the current environment in the North Caucasus. Every day brings about new developments in Chechnya, which can hardly be characterised as encouraging. The more recent events, which culminated with the intervention in Chechnya and the siege of Grozny by the Russian Federal troops in November – December 1999, have raised even more questions about the future of the Caucasus.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and North Caucasus
3459. Thinking About the Future: Economic Aspects
- Author:
- Emilio Gerelli
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Union Studies Center
- Abstract:
- Building scenarios of the future has been defined "the art of thinking the unthinkable". And in fact the successful author of scenarios must be able to combine both an open and creative mind, and analytical capabilities to envisage different and sometimes counterintuitive combinations of actors, factors and trends. Our author is often also "heroic", since he knows that most probably he will be disproved by facts. However it is worth bravely accepting the challenge of uncertainty, since "illustrating the future by means of scenarios is a way to overcome human beings' resistance to change. Scenarios can thus open mental horizons to allow the individual to accept and understand change, and so be able to shape the world. Scenarios may help in seizing new opportunities ahead as well as avoiding undesirable effects of misconceived actions". In this connection a historian notes: "it is desirable, possible and even within certain limits necessary to forecast our future…However the process of forecasting must be based necessarily on the knowledge of the past".
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
3460. Growth, Poverty and Inequality in Latin America
- Author:
- William Smith and Roberto Korzeniewicz
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The crystallization of the so-called “Washington Consensus” in the late 1980s sparked intense debates regarding the likely social impact of macroeconomic stabilization and structural adjustment. Academic critics and political opponents argued that Washingtonian reforms, and neoclassical economics more broadly, lacked a coherent theory of growth, and were bound to result in long-term negative trends in popular welfare and social inequality. Advocates of neoliberal restructuring, in contrast, while recognizing that market-oriented reforms could lead initially to a decline in output and standards of living, were confident that these reforms eventually would lead to sustainable growth and, as a consequence, greater equality and enhanced social welfare. A decade later we revisit this debate to evaluate recent trends in economic growth, poverty and inequality, and to assess accompanying shifts in the theoretical, policy, and political terrains.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean
3461. Collective Management of International Financial Crises
- Author:
- Saori N. Katada
- Publication Date:
- 07-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- The world has experienced many financial crises. Despite numerous research and policy efforts in prevention to present them at of large scale, the global economy has not seen economists' (and investors') Nirvana of financial globalization without the occasional crises. On the contrary, the increasing dynamism and changing nature of financial flows across national borders seem to have created a larger number of new problems for creditors, debtors and international financial institutions. That has typically been true for middle income countries in Latin America and Asia and, very recently, in Eastern Europe, which have been integrated into the international financial system. During the two decades between the late 1970s and the late 1990s, three major sets of financial crises originated from those middle income countries, intensifying concerns for international financial stability.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Israel, East Asia, Latin America, Central America, and North America
3462. International Financial Markets as Sources of Crises or Discipline
- Author:
- Thomas D. Willett
- Publication Date:
- 07-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- Two major views dominate policy discussions of the role of international capital flows in the global political economy. While both believe that high capital mobility is eroding national sovereignty, one sees this as a positive step, that constrains governments' tendencies to follow overexpansionary macroeconomic policies for domestic political gain and promotes convergence toward low rates of inflation. Advocates of this viewpoint would typically agree with Haggard and Maxfield (1996) that “Increased financial integration holds governments hostage to foreign exchange and capital markets, forcing greater fiscal and monetary discipline than they might otherwise choose” (p. 36). This view is implied by most of the currently most popular economic models. The second viewpoint sees international capital markets as capricious followers of fads and fashions that pose serious challenges to domestic financial stability. The statements of Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Prime Minister of Malaysia are typical of this view.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
3463. Theoretical Explanations of Trade Competitiveness and a North American Application
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- How do we reconcile economic competitiveness with trade regionalism? This exploratory investigation first takes stock of how competitiveness has been defined by both economists and political scientists, then extracts an inclusive model from the different literatures, and finally broadly assesses business transactions and trends across North America using that model. Beginning with the Ricardo-Viner and Hecksher-Olin explanations, various types of competitiveness articulated by Michael Porter, Mancur Olson, and David Mares are subsequently brought in. preliminary findings presented as hypotheses for future testing, suggest that: that evaporation of hegemony has resulted in multiple claims to competitiveness across North America, policy convergences are more widespread and common than ever before, regional-level cooperation provides an efficient means for all three countries to offset global competitiveness, and domestic interests, though still a potential veto force, are slowly embracing, rather than opposing, supranational efforts.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
3464. The Role of the Private Sector in the Evolution of US Technology Policy
- Author:
- Judith Mariscal and John B. Horrigan
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Technology policy in the United States has undergone a dramatic transformation in the past ten to twelve years, as the government has increasingly played an active role in the high-tech sector and as the sector itself has faced growing competition from foreign competitors. Truths (or apparent truths) which once were unquestioned—that the U.S. government should only intervene in technology for national security reasons, that entrepreneurial high-tech firms operate best as "lone rangers" in the marketplace—have been closely scrutinized. The result of such scrutiny is that government and industry have changed their perceptions about their roles in a world in which the economic and competitive environment shifts rapidly. Another outcome is that technology policy has taken on increasing importance in U.S. policy circles. We see in the Clinton Administration plans to promote the information superhighway, proposals to overhaul the way in which the telecommunications industry is regulated, support for government-industry research consortia, closer linkage of trade and technology policy, and in general a much closer industry government relationship with the high-tech sector.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
3465. Banking Sector Development in Kazakhstan
- Author:
- Eugene Spiro
- Publication Date:
- 12-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The EastWest Institute convened in partnership with the Kazakhstan Institute of Management, Economics and Strategic Research (KIMEP) International Conference on Banking Policies on December 9-12, 1998. The purpose of the conference was to present Kazakh officials, academicians and bankers with practices (best and otherwise) in CEE and the West on bank privatization and reduction of the state's role in banking; costs and benefits of foreign strategic investment in the banking sector; and issues related to bank supervision, regulation and deposit insurance.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Kazakhstan and Asia
3466. Strategic Images: Perceptions of Russia in the USA and of America in Russia
- Author:
- Dag Hartelius and Natasha Randall
- Publication Date:
- 11-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- Over the last year we have witnessed a deteriorating climate in Russian-Western relations - or at least this has been the perception. The Russian financial crisis has accelerated the trend in Russia to blame the West - in particular the US - for their troubles. In America and Europe a new debate has been spawned on what kind of Russia we are now dealing with. Old truths, or old perceptions, are being questioned and relations are being reassessed.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, America, Europe, and Asia
3467. EWI Baltic Initiative Fund
- Author:
- Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
- Publication Date:
- 10-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- In this report we wish to provide a brief account of what the EWI Baltic Initiative Fund has accomplished in its first year, and of some of the things we are hoping to achieve in the future. Our experience over the past eighteen months has convinced all of us at EWI that there is a job to be done, and that we have a real contribution to make. The very favorable responses we continue to receive from our Baltic partners encourage us to believe that our program is indeed worthwhile and fills an important need.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Maryland
3468. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 5: September 9, 1998
- Author:
- Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
- Publication Date:
- 09-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The Communist dominated Duma sent a stern message to President Yelstin on September 7th by rejecting his nominee, Viktor Chernomyrdin, for the second time. The vote was 273 against and 138 for (with one abstention). While Chernomyrdin's showing improved substantially from the Duma's first ballot, he still fell far short of the 226 votes needed for Duma approval. Furthermore, his gains came largely from Zhirinovsky's nationalist faction, which has a crass history of trading votes to “the highest bidder.” Yelstin's opposition, on the other hand, benefited from the support of independent deputies comprising a group called “Regions of Russia”: their approval of Chernomyrdin dropped from 86% to 50% in the second round.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
3469. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 4: August 31, 1998
- Author:
- Allen Collinsworth, Robert Orttung, Rado Petkov, and Rick Petree
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- At approximately 12.30 p.m. EST today, the Duma rejected Chernomyrdin's nomination as Prime Minister by an open ballot vote of 251-94 (with 105 abstaining). 226 votes are needed to confirm him. Chernomyrdin's own Our Home Is Russia party provided most of his support (64 votes). Zhirinovsky's party, the Liberal Democrats, abstained (49 votes). Analysts underscored the weakness of support for Chernomyrdin by noting that, in the first round of voting on the nomination of Prime Minister Kiriyenko five months ago, Kiriyenko polled 143 votes in favor. This was in secret balloting, however, which to some extent invalidates the comparison.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
3470. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 3: August 27, 1998
- Author:
- Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The latest private reports from Moscow indicate that the Duma is very likely to reject Viktor Chernomyrdin's candidacy for Prime minister next week. Tomorrow, Aug. 28 th , at 3:00 pm, the Duma and the Federation Council will meet to decide whether to recommend a vote on Chernomyrdin's candidacy. Whereas Chernomyrdin's chances are bleak, the fluid nature of current Russian political situation makes it impossible to firmly rule out his confirmation as prime minister, a post which he very much wants.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
3471. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 2: August 25, 1998
- Author:
- Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- Since our Aug. 20th report, the situation in Russia has developed dramatically. On Friday (Aug. 21st), the lower house of the Russian parliament (the Duma) overwhelmingly called for Yeltsin's resignation and changes in the government and the leadership of the central bank. The Duma also passed a non-binding resolution demanding nationalization of some banks and restriction of foreign participation in domestic capital markets. In response, the RTS index of leading Russian shares fell 5.56% to 81.76 on negligible trading volume of $4.2 million. Central bank head Dubinin announced plans to activate Russia's precious metals reserves (approximately $5 billion of $15.1 billion total foreign exchange reserves) to support the ruble. On Sunday, Aug. 23rd, in an action anticipated in our Aug. 17th report, Yeltsin dismissed Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and installed in his place Viktor Chernomyrdin.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
3472. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 1: August 20, 1998
- Author:
- Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- Russian capital markets were already in what George Soros described as a “financial meltdown in . . . its terminal phase” on August 12th. Since then, capital markets have deteriorated significantly in reaction to measures announced by the Russian Government on Monday, Aug. 17th (summarized in Section II below). IEWS is actively evaluating the nature and extent of the crisis and trying to project its likely course.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
3473. Subregional Relations in the Southern Tier: Prospects for Development
- Publication Date:
- 05-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- Doubts were expressed as to the extent one could define the Caucasus and Central Asia as a single region, particularly for the purposes of exploring the potential for subregional cooperation to develop among its constituent states. External considerations (complex relationship between Russia and the states involved; presence of other outside actors; energy transit perspectives; influence of external conflict, i.e. Afghanistan) may point towards consideration of the Southern Tier as one region. However, internal perspectives, geographical, historical, political and cultural, suggest that treating subregionalism separately in the Caucasus and Central Asia might be a more realistic and potentially fruitful approach.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- New York, Europe, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Maryland
3474. Deposit Insurance Funds: An Instrument of Banking Stability and Issues of Authority, Information and Effectiveness
- Author:
- Eugene Spiro
- Publication Date:
- 03-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The EastWest Institute is interested in the issue of banking supervision as one of the primary goals of our Economics Program since 1990 has been to support the establishment of a reformed, market-based banking system in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Former Soviet Union (FSU). As an integral component of our broader work in providing expert support to commercial bank managers and economic policymakers on the concrete aspects of implementing reform-oriented practices and strategies, we see the underlying stability and transparency of the banking system to be of critical importance. In Hungary as elsewhere, banks are indispensable to the smooth functioning of the economy, and the EWI has long subscribed to the view that the banking sector (e.g. in the context of privatisation) is a 'special' sector and requires special treatment.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Soviet Union, and Maryland
3475. Strategies for EU-Integration
- Publication Date:
- 04-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The decision to enlarge the European Union to applicant countries in Central and Eastern Europe is by far the most important instrument to secure the process of democratic and market economic reform in the new, post-Cold War Europe. To implement and manage this decision is indeed a challenge to both the existing members of the Union and the applicants. In principle, the roadmap is clear. Together with the acquis communautaire , the 1993 Copenhagen criteria outline the main framework for the way to full membership. The Union has further developed its enlargement strategy in the Agenda 2000 presented in July 1997.
- Topic:
- Economics and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Maryland
3476. Globalisation: Challenges and Opportunities
- Author:
- G.B. Madison
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
- Abstract:
- Globalization is a multifaceted phenomenon. In this paper I seek to discern some of the challenges it poses, as well as some of the opportunities it offers. To this end, attention is focused on three major aspects of globalization: the economic, the cultural, and the political. Particular consideration is given to the political-economic lessons to be learned from the recent East Asian financial (and economic) crisis; the homogenizing and civilizing ramifications of globalization in the realm of culture; and the relation between economic globalization, the threat it poses to the traditional notion of national sovereignty, and the prospects for the development of civil society, the rule of law, and democratic governance. The paper concludes by arguing that, as a result of the emerging global economy, we are witnessing the emergence of a new form of capitalism, qualitatively different from both 19th-century laissez-faire capitalism and 20th-century “managed” capitalism.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- East Asia and Asia
3477. After the Crisis: The Social Contract and the Middle Class in East Asia
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall and Stephan Haggard
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Asian financial crisis put in bold relief two big differences between the Asian and the Western economies. One has been hotly contested, while the other has been virtually ignored.
- Topic:
- Economics and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- Israel and East Asia
3478. Perspectives From Four Continents: Solving the Global Public Pensions Crisis
- Author:
- Cato Institute
- Publication Date:
- 04-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- On December 8-9 the Cato Institute and The Economist cosponsored a conference on the global public pensions crisis at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre in London. Among the speakers were Michael Tanner, director of the Cato Project on Social Security Privatization; Clive Crook, deputy editor of The Economist; Carlos Boloña, former finance minister of Peru; Mukul Asher of the University of Singapore; and Peter Ferrara, chief economist at Americans for Tax Reform and an associate policy analyst at the Cato Institute. Excerpts from their remarks follow.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- London
3479. America's Maligned and Misunderstood Trade Deficit
- Author:
- Daniel T. Griswold
- Publication Date:
- 04-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- America's annual trade deficit, already large by historical standards, could reach a new record in 1998, fueling protectionist sentiment in Congress. Political fallout from the trade deficit numbers could impede efforts to reduce barriers to trade in the United States and abroad. Contrary to popular conception, the trade deficit is not caused by unfair trade practices abroad or declining industrial competitiveness at home. Trade deficits reflect the flow of capital across international borders, flows that are determined by national rates of savings and investment. This renders trade policy an ineffective tool for reducing a nation's trade deficit.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
3480. International Capital Mobility and Monetary Politics in the U.S. Congress, 1960–1997
- Author:
- J. Lawrence Broz
- Publication Date:
- 10-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Prevailing approaches to the politics of monetary policy in the United States are based on closed economy assumptions, which is appropriate for analyzing the period before about 1980. However, the opening of U.S. and foreign financial markets since the early 1980s has had a profound effect on domestic monetary policy and domestic monetary politics. The major policy effect is that the transmission channels of monetary policy now include the exchange rate. The major political effect is that the exchange rate has become a focus of concern for well-organized industries in the traded goods sector and, by extension, for Congress. This paper presents statistical evidence showing that the forces driving congressional activity on monetary policy have changed dramatically with the international financial integration of the U.S. economy. Exchange rates, as opposed to interest rates, now largely determine congressional attentiveness to monetary policy and the Federal Reserve.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
3481. Negotiating Economic Transitions in Liberizing Polities
- Author:
- Frances Hagopian
- Publication Date:
- 05-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- How do governments struggling to consolidate new democracies enact effective stabilization and adjustment policies, reform the public sector, and deregulate markets? And what has been the impact of economic liberalization on political institutions and systems of political representation? Treating economic and political transitions as mutually interdependent, this paper couples these questions to suggest a reformulation of the conventional wisdom about how economic liberalization proceeds and how political interests are determined. It challenges the assumption that neoliberal reform is most readily achieved in liberalizing polities when visionary political leaders surrounded by coherent economic teams with comprehensive programs in place act with a wide margin of autonomy from society. It also questions the contention that structures of political representation are the outgrowth of either economic organization or the product of state engineering. The paper makes two arguments. Its central argument is that economic reform is accomplished most readily when government reformers, acting through available clientelistic, corporatist, and party-based networks of mediation, negotiate the compliance of public and private sector representatives of social actors for the introduction of market-oriented reforms. They trade public resources or legislation favoring the representational status of political or social actors in the present for the agreement of those actors to accept diminished state resources for their organizations or constituents in the future. The use of specific networks of negotiation, moreover, influences the design of liberalization policies and helps to account for national differences in the pace and sequence of economic reform measures. The paper's second argument is that those systems of political representation that are strengthened as a result of the temporary advantages that accrue to them during the process of state retreat will endure even when they are incompatible with economic liberalism. This is so because the politicians and group leaders who manage these networks have the opportunity to design institutions that will allow them to accommodate themselves and adapt their power bases to economies in which the market plays a larger role.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, Central America, and North America
3482. Curbed Markets?
- Author:
- Kellee S. Tsai
- Publication Date:
- 05-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Our country does not permit the establishment of private banks. We must continue to investigate and impose discipline on non-banking financial institutions and other creditors that charge high interest rates. This is clearly one of the most important measures for ensuring order in the entire financial system.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
3483. The State in a Changing World: A Critique of the 1997 World Development Report
- Author:
- Devesh Kapur
- Publication Date:
- 02-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the World Bank has been at the vanguard in pressing for a circumscribed role for the State in developing countries. It therefore comes as somewhat of a surprise that the 1997 World Development Report (WDR - the World Bank's annual flagship publication), The State in a Changing World, underscores the continuing significance of the State in LDCs.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Organization, and Third World
3484. U.S. Government Statistics: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of December 17, 1998
- Publication Date:
- 12-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $14.2 billion in October, from $14.4 billion (revised) in September as exports increased more than imports.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
3485. U.S. Government Statistics: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of November 18, 1998
- Publication Date:
- 11-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $14.0 billion in September, from $15.9 billion (revised) in August as exports increased and imports decreased.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
3486. Balance on Current Account - As of September 10, 1998
- Publication Date:
- 09-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
3487. U.S. Government Statistics: R Expenditures as a Percent of GDP
- Publication Date:
- 10-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Division of Science Resources Studies (SRS) of the National Science Foundation publishes the biennial report, National Patterns of R Resources. This report describes and analyzes current patterns of research and development (R) in the United States, in relation to the historical record and the reported R levels of other industrialized countries. For years in which the full report is not produced, current, annual statistics on national and international R trends are released in data updates like this one.
- Topic:
- Economics and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
3488. Net Oil Imports - As of November 30, 1998
- Publication Date:
- 11-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economics and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
3489. Focal Points and International Financial Markets: The Maastricht Convergence Criteria
- Author:
- Layna Mosley
- Publication Date:
- 03-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- A central research problem in comparative and international political economy concerns the implications of economic globalization - and more specifically, of international capital mobility - for national economic policy choice. A large body of recent literature suggests that governments are, at least to some extent, constrained by relatively high levels of international capital mobility (Garrett, 1998; O'Brien, 1992). At the very least, the asset allocation decisions of financial market participants affect interest rate levels, and, therefore, the cost of borrowing for governments and private actors.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3490. Science, Technology, and the Law
- Author:
- Peter Huber, Susan Raymond, Rodney W. Nichols, Kenneth Dam, Kenneth R. Foster, George Ehrlich, Debra Miller, Alan Charles Raul, Ronald Bailey, and Alex Kozinski
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- New York Academy of Sciences
- Abstract:
- As science and technology push the edges of understanding, innovation makes the once unimaginable merely quotidian. The flow—the torrent—of change inevitably meets the stock of laws and regulations that structure society. And, often, the legal system and the judiciary must cope with the resulting swirls, eddies, and, at times, whirlpools of ethical controversy and economic and societal choice.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Law, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, New York, and America
3491. Science and Technology for African Development: Partnerships in a Global Economy
- Author:
- Soodursun Jugessur, Susan U. Raymond, Stephen Chandiwana, Clive Shiff, Pieter J.D. Drenth, D. N. Tarpeh, Iba Kone, Jacques Gaillard, and Roland Waast
- Publication Date:
- 03-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- New York Academy of Sciences
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the eureka factor in science based development and underscores the increasing concern that Africa lags behind in S due to political and social instability coupled by low investments in technologies. The paper emphasises that African science should come up with a decisive policy for investment in new style education and capacity building for S that is relevant to the African experience and addresses problems of real concern to the community. Science led development in Africa should reduce replication of foreign technologies and invest in social capital of its scientists and its R institutions for sustainable economic development. The aim of the paper is not to offer prescriptive solutions but to highlight areas which should stimulate debate in small working groups examining how Africa can learn from its own experience as well as that of other nations in developing an appropriate system of innovation for science led development.
- Topic:
- Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, Government, Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States
3492. Women Coping with Crisis: Social Consequences of Export-Led Industrialization in the Dominican Republic
- Author:
- Helen I. Safa
- Publication Date:
- 04-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- What are the social consequences of export-led industrialization, and are they a deterrent to sustainable development? This paper explores these questions by examining the link between export-led industrialization, the feminization of labor, and the growth of female-headed households in the Dominican Republic in a community that has undergone a marked shift in economic base from sugar production, employing mostly men, to export manufacturing, employing mostly women. Employment in export manufacturing gives women greater economic autonomy and greater leverage in the household, which, combined with deterioration in male employment, raises women's resistance to marriage and weakens the role of the male breadwinner. While female-headed households have increased in number, the economic and emotional support provided by consanguineal kin, often living in extended families, has enabled these households to function quite adequately. Under these circumstances, the female-headed household should not be seen as a deterrent to sustainability.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Gender Issues
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean
3493. Global Economics and Local Politics in Trinidad's Divestment Program
- Author:
- Anthony P. Maingot
- Publication Date:
- 12-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- This study focuses on the complex interaction between local political, social, and economic exigencies and the imperatives of the global economy in Trinidad. Local systems operate according to the perceived needs of their elites and the moral codes and biases of the political culture. In Trinidad, the dominant biases have to do with racial competition. For more than five decades, efforts have been made to use the state to extend economic rights to underprivileged Afro-Trinidadians. In the mid-1980s, however, a shift in macroeconomic thinking led to liberalization and a growing gap between the traditional nationalist/statist ideology and the actual decisions of political elites. This paper explores this unresolved incongruity through a case study of Petrotrin, the national petroleum company that oversees the fast-growing oil and gas sector.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean
3494. Democracy and Reform in Cardoso's Brazil: Caught Between Clientelism and Global Markets?
- Author:
- Willian C. Smith and Nizar Messari
- Publication Date:
- 09-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- This paper explores President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's record and his attempt to seek reelection on October 4 over the challenge of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, candidate of the Workers' Party (PT) and the left. These events are examined in the context of a central, inescapable dilemma of contemporary Brazilian politics: how to reconcile the exigencies of the market and globalization with the equally compelling needs to promote democracy while combating poverty, violence, and social exclusion. The paper concludes with analyses of various alternative politico-economic scenarios for Brazil following the October elections.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Brazil
3495. Stabilization and Its Discontents: Argentina's Economic Restructuring in the 1990s
- Author:
- Manuel Pastor and Carol Wise
- Publication Date:
- 05-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- Even as multilateral officials adamantly oppose the implementation of currency boards as a way of stabilizing exchange rates and inflation in the wake of the recent Asian financial crisis, Argentina remains committed to such an arrangement. This paper explores the political and economic conditions that prompted Argentine policymakers to adopt an economic management model in 1991 that is generally considered to be less flexible than other approaches now prevailing in Latin America. Short-term outcomes as well as longer-term patterns of economic restructuring now underway in Argentina are analyzed. The authors argue that, despite considerable success on the macro-stabilization front, policymakers still have their work cut out in terms of designing a set of second-phase measures to facilitate smoother adjustment at the microeconomic level.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
3496. The Yen, the Yuan, and the Asian Currency Crisis Changing Fortune between Japan and China
- Author:
- C.H. Kwan
- Publication Date:
- 12-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The currency crisis that started in Thailand in the summer of 1997 was followed by repercussions on the currencies of neighboring countries, culminating in a crisis infecting most countries in East Asia. Japan and China, which have developed strong ties with the rest of Asia through trade and investment, have not been exempted from this contagion. This paper looks at the latest currency crisis in Asia from the perspectives of these two regional giants.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Thailand
3497. The Korean Currency Crisis: What Can We Learn From It?
- Author:
- Sang-Mok Suh
- Publication Date:
- 05-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Just like many other crises, the Korean currency crisis came suddenly. In mid–November 1997, headlines in the Korean press consisted mostly of presidential election stories. At that time the presidential race was very close; the Grand National Party candidate, Lee Hoi–Chang, was making a dramatic comeback, while the National Congress for New Politics candidate, Kim Dae–jung, was making his best effort to maintain his narrow lead. Thus, when President Kim Young Sam announced on November 19 his decision to fire key economic policy–makers on the grounds of mismanaging the economy, most Koreans were surprised at the news and questioned the president's motivation. Two days later they were completely shocked to learn that the Korean government was asking the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emergency standby loans because the Korean foreign reserve level was very low at $7.3 billion and most foreign financial institutions were unwilling to roll over their short–term loans to Korea.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Israel, East Asia, and Asia
3498. Benefits and Burdens: The Politically Dominated Economics of U.S. Alliances with Japan and Korea
- Author:
- Charles Wolf and Michele Zanini
- Publication Date:
- 04-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Alliances are organizations between or among independent entities that concert to produce “collective goods” for the mutual benefit of alliance members. The statement applies whether the alliances are between or among countries, corporations, universities, research centers, or other institutions. Of course, the nature of the collective goods, as well as the membership in the collectivity, differs across these cases. That the goods (or benefits) are “collective” means that their availability to one alliance member (or their production by any member) implies their availability to the other members of the alliance.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Korea
3499. The Costs and Benefits of Korean Unification
- Author:
- Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Li-gang Liu
- Publication Date:
- 03-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Existing estimates of the costs of unification are inadequate for a number of reasons. In this paper we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to calculate South Korean and total peninsular income streams under a variety of unification (and non–unification) scenarios. We find that there are scenarios in which the present discounted value of South Korean income is higher with unification than without it. Although lower income groups in South Korea experience reduced incomes under this scenario, with redistribution of the gains, everyone can be made better off. Indeed, this scenario, which involves relatively low levels of South Korean private investment in the North together with relatively high levels of North–South migration, is also the one which generates the highest level of total peninsular income as well. The latter point is critical in that it suggests that there is no necessary conflict between the economic interests of North and South Koreans after unification.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Israel, East Asia, and Korea
3500. Energy and Security in East Asia
- Author:
- Michael May
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This study examines the likely security consequences of the continued growth in energy consumption in East Asia, and in particular: The dimensions of that growth which are likely to have an effect on international security. The dependencies and insecurities created by that continued growth. The policy guidance that can be derived for the United States from a review of those dependencies and insecurities.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Energy Policy, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Israel and East Asia