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3601. Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle

Author:
Jon Faust and John S. Irons
Publication Date:
11-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics

3602. The Accumulation of Human Capital: Alternative Methods and Why They Matter

Author:
Ann L. Owen and Murat F. Iyigun
Publication Date:
05-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We show how the ability o accumulate human capital through formal education and through a learning-by-doing process that occurs on the job affects the dynamic behavior of the human capital stock under a liquidity constrained and a non-constrained case. When there are alternatives to formal schooling in the accumulation of human capital, investing resources in increasing school enrollment rates in low-income countries may not be the most efficient means of increasing the human capital stock. In addition, removal of the liquidity constraints may not be sufficient to escape a development trap.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Education, and International Trade and Finance

3603. Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index

Author:
Neil R. Ericsson, Kari H. Eika, and Ragnar Nymoen
Publication Date:
10-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Some recent studies have suggested constructing a Monetary Conditions Index (or MCI) to serve as an indicator of monetary policy stance. The central banks of Canada, Sweden, and Norway all construct an MCI and (to varying degrees) use it in conducting monetary policy. Empirically, an MCI is calculated as the weighted sum of changes in a short-term interest rate and the exchange rate relative to values in a baseline year. The weights aim to reflect these variables' effects on longer-term focuses of policy — economic activity and inflation. This paper derives analytical and empirical properties of MCIs in an attempt to ascertain their usefulness in monetary policy.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

3604. Regime Switching in the Dynamic Relationship between the Federal Funds Rate and Innovations in Nonborrowed Reserves

Author:
Chan Huh
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between changes in the finds rate and nonborrowed reserves within a reduced form framework that allows the relationship to have WO distinct patterns over time. A regime switching model a la Hamilton (1989) is estimated. On average, CPI inflation has been significantly higher in the regime and volatile changes in funds rate. Innovations in money growth are characterized by large associated with a strong anticipated inflation effect in this high inflation regime, and a moderate liquidity effect in the low inflation regime. Furthermore, an identical money innovation generates a much bigger increase in the interest rate during a transition period from the low to high inflation regime than during a steady high inflation period. This accords well with economic intuition since the transition period is when the anticipated inflation effect initially gets incorporated into the interest rate. The converse also holds. That is, the liquidity effect becomes stronger when the economy leaves a high inflation regime period and enters a low inflation regime period.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

3605. Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece

Author:
Neil R. Ericsson and Sunil Sharma
Publication Date:
07-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper develops a constant, data-coherent, error correction model for broad money demand (M3) in Greece. This model contributes to a better understanding of the effects of monetary policy in Greece, and of the portfolio consequences of financial innovation in general. The broad monetary aggregate M3 was targeted until recently, and current monetary policy still uses such aggregates as guidelines, yet analysis of this aggregate has been dormant for over a decade.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

3606. Intellectual Property, Trade, and Economic Development: A Road Map for the FTAA Negotiations

Author:
Carlos A. Primo Braga and Robert M. Sherwood
Publication Date:
09-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Intellectual property (IP) protection is becoming increasingly crucial in the context of new international commitments, the competition for private investments, and global “technology racing.” This paper examines the common base for a Western Hemisphere IP arrangement and notes the most prominent existing regional integration accords that include IP commitments. It assesses the recent Trade Related Intellectual Property (TRIPS) Agreement negotiated during the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Law, and International Trade and Finance

3607. Strategic Global Repositioning and Future Economic Development in Jamaica

Author:
Richard L. Bernal
Publication Date:
04-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Strategic global repositioning is a process of r epositioning a country in the global economy by implementing a strategic plan. Such plans are designed to consolidate and improve existing production lines while reorienting the economy toward new types of economic activities. In most developing countries, this involves structural transformation (not adjustment) to achieve economic diversification, including export diversification. The need for strategic global repositioning derives from trends in the global economy that portend limited opportunities for industrialization in developing countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

3608. Legitimate Rule in the European Union

Author:
Frank Schimmelfennig
Publication Date:
08-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Two seemingly contradictory trends dominate the European debate over legitimate rule. On the one hand, there appears to be no ideologically viable alternative to liberal democracy following the collapse of the Eastern Bloc. On the other, the rapid progress of European integration has triggered an intense public debate over the European Union's "legitimacy deficit" and active popular opposition in many Western European countries. This paper asks whether these two seemingly contradictory developments can be reconciled. It argues that they can once it is recognized that the modern inter-state system is undergoing profound change. State sovereignty is being undermined by the trans-nationalization of foreign policy and the inter-nationalization of governance. In particular, the European Union has crossed the border from horizontal (or anarchical) interstate cooperation to vertical (or hierarchical) policy making in a multi-level political system in which states are but one level of the policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, International Organization, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe

3609. Nigeria: Country Profile

Publication Date:
11-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, was a pioneer in the movement for African independence. In past centuries, its territory was home to a series of powerful and technically-advanced societies, renowned for their artistic, commercial, and political achievements.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

3610. The Syndrome of the Ever-Higher Yen, 1971-95: American Mercantile Pressure on Japanese Monetary Policy

Author:
Ronald McKinnon, Kazuko Shirono, and Kenichi Ohno
Publication Date:
12-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
From 1971 through mid-1995, the yen continually appreciated against the U.S. dollar because the Japanese and American governments were caught in a mutual policy trap. Repeated threats of a trade war by the United States caused the yen to ratchet up in 1971-73, 1977-78, 1985-87, and 1993 to mid-1995. While temporarily ameliorating commercial tensions, these great appreciations imposed relative deflation on Japan without correcting the trade imbalance between the two countries. Although resisting sharp yen appreciations in the short run, the Bank of Japan validated this syndrome of the ever-higher yen by following a monetary policy that was deflationary relative to that established by the U.S. Federal Reserve System. The appreciating yen was a forcing variable in determining the Japanese price level. After 1985, this resulted in great macroeconomic instability in Japan--including two endaka fukyos (high-yen-induced recessions).
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, America, Israel, and East Asia

3611. A United States Policy for the Changing Realities of East Asia

Author:
Donald Emmerson, Henry Rowen, Michel Oksenberg, Daniel Okimoto, James Raphael, Thomas Rohlen, and Michael H. Armacost
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, the power and prestige of the United States in East Asia have suffered a worrisome degree of erosion. The erosion is, in part, the by-product of long-run secular trends, such as structural shifts in the balance of power caused by the pacesetting growth of East Asian economies. But the decline has been aggravated by shortcomings in U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly the lack of a coherent strategy and a clear-cut set of policy priorities for the post-Cold War environment. If these shortcomings are not corrected, the United States runs the risk of being marginalized in East Asia--precisely at a time when our stakes in the region are as essential as those in any area of the world. What is needed, above all, is a sound, consistent, and publicly articulated strategy, one which holds forth the prospect of serving as the basis for a sustainable, nonpartisan domestic consensus. The elements of an emerging national consensus can be identified as follows:
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

3612. Trojan Horse or Boomerang: Two-Tiered Investment in the Asian Auto Complex

Author:
Gregory W. Noble
Publication Date:
11-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
The last decade has witnessed a momentous transformation in the political economy of East and Southeast Asia. From the 1950s until the early 1980s transnational production played a limited role in the strategies of Northeast Asian governments and firms. Ubiquitous policies of protection and promotion aimed to increase domestic investment, production and exports. Governments discouraged outward investment through financial controls, particularly over foreign currencies; they limited inward foreign investment to narrowly confined niches, and then often subjected it to onerous restrictions to prevent foreigners from gaining a major foothold in the national economy. The few exceptions involved areas in which domestic production was inadequate: investments in Southeast Asian raw materials and energy; investments by Japanese and Western firms in Korea and Taiwan for some labor-intensive products to be sold in local or third-country markets (but rarely in Japan); and a handful of high-tech investments by Western firms such as IBM which enjoyed such strong patent positions that they could not be forced to license their technology. Since the mid-1980s the combination of rapid currency appreciation, rising costs of labor, land and pollution control in Northeast Asia, and liberalizing economic reforms in Southeast Asia led to a huge surge of direct foreign investment, mainly for the production of labor-intensive manufactured goods. The focal point of Northeast Asian economies shifted from export-led growth based on protected domestic markets to management of regional production networks spread throughout Asia.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Japan, Taiwan, Asia, and Korea

3613. A New Discipline: Development Ethics

Author:
Denis Goulet
Publication Date:
08-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
'Development' has long been equated with modernization and Westernization and studied as a straightforward economic issue. The discipline of economics has been the main source of policy prescription for development decisionmakers. This view is now widely criticized as ethnocentric and as economically reductionist. Change is occurring: economics itself is reintegrating ethics into its conceptualization, methodology, and analysis; a new paradigm of development is in gestation; and a new discipline, development ethics, has come into being. Development ethics centers its study of development on the value questions posed: What is the relation between having goods and being good in the pursuit of the good life; what are the foundations of a just society; and what stance should societies adopt toward nature? The new discipline emerges from two sources, which are now converging: from engagement in development action to the formulation of ethical theory, and from a critique of mainstream ethical theory to the crafting of normative strategies to guide development practice. Development ethics has a dual mission: to render the economy more human and to keep hope alive in the face of the seeming impossibility of achieving human development for all.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Ethics, Economic Growth, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3614. The Revival of the Nation-State?

Author:
Susanne Lutz
Publication Date:
12-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The debate on economic 'globalization' suggests that the blurring of territorial boundaries shifts the power relations between nation-states and domestic market constituencies in favour of the latter. States have lost autonomy since policies are increasingly formulated in supranational or global arenas. Market actors may use their wider choice of geographic location in order to lobby for low regulated market environments. The paper seeks to differentiate this common view considerably. It argues that economic internationalization weakens the capacity of domestic market actors to engage in self-binding agreements that formerly had solved regulatory problems. Networks of interstate collaboration in turn lack the ability to monitor and enforce negotiated agreements. Both developments impose new duties of market supervision on the nation-state. Empirical reference is drawn from the stock exchange sector that went through a process of transformation which has led to an enhanced role of the nation-state in the model of sectoral governance.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Government, and International Trade and Finance

3615. Numbering British Contention, 1758-1834

Author:
Thomas Chronopoulos
Publication Date:
12-1995
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Studies of Social Change
Abstract:
In the period between 1758 and 1834 repertoires of contention in Britain changed from parochial, particular, and bifurcated to cosmopolitan, modular, and autonomous. In other words, eighteenth century actions "that included a good deal of ceremonial, street theater, deployment of strong visual symbols, and destruction of symbolically charged objects" through the course of time lost their relative predominance and instead "demonstrations, strikes, rallies, public meetings, and similar forms of public interaction came to prevail during the nineteenth century." These new routines for the eighteenth century contentious events are the ones that ordinary people in the United States and Western Europe still to this date principally employ to make claims. This conclusion merges from a systematic study of more than 8,000 contentious gatherings, in Southern England (1758-1820) and Great Britain as a whole (1828-1834).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and England

3616. Nicaraguan Property Disputes

Publication Date:
04-1995
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
With the first peaceful transfer of power from one political party to another in Nicaraguan history in 1990, Nicaraguans ended a decade-long civil war and began a process of reconciliation. Within the space of a year, the army was shrunk from 96,000 to less than 15,000 troops, the Nicaraguan Resistance was demobilized, and new forms of dialogue between previously hostile groups emerged. Nevertheless, economic recovery remained elusive in the face of hyperinflation, high expectations and competing demands among organized groups, and a lack of confidence among investors and producers. Disputes over property have played a significant role in Nicaragua's recent political and economic experience, and are a fundamental factor in its future economic recovery and political reconciliation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Law, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America and Central America

3617. The Politics of Economic Liberalization: Argentina and Brazil in Comparative Perspective

Author:
Robert A. Packenham
Publication Date:
04-1994
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The recent trends toward economic liberalization in Latin America provide an unusual opportunity to analyze a number of important questions in the political economy of development and underdevelopment. Why has virtually every Latin American country suddenly reversed the direction of the economic policies that had been in place for a full half-century or more? Why is the pace of such change rapid in some countries and slow in others? What are the already discernible and likely future consequences of such changes for development? What are their implications for theories of development and underdevelopment? What conceptual, theoretical, and methodological tools are available and fruitful for analyzing these topics? This paper examines these questions with particular reference to the difference in the pace of change toward economic liberalization between Argentina under Menem and Brazil under Collor.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Political Economy, Economic Growth, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and Latin America

3618. The Political Underpinnings of Economic Liberalization in Chile

Author:
Timothy R. Scully
Publication Date:
07-1994
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The contemporary consensus over economic policy-making in Chile and the democratic government's capacity to effectively implement these policies are powerfully shaped by a combination of institutional legacies from Chile's democratic past and certain institutional holdovers from the Pinochet regime. This paper reviews briefly the performance of the Chilean economy under the Concertation government headed by Patricio Aylwin. It then argues that Chile's democratic government has been uniquely endowed with a capacity to successfully sustain economic liberalization, in part because of the reappearance of a well-institutionalized party system, in part because of certain nondemocratic limits built into the democratic game during the Pinochet regime. Over the medium term, however, these limits may pose a threat to the consensual style of politics that has come to characterize the post-Pinochet political arena in Chile, and ultimately may threaten democratic political stability if left unaddressed.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Democracy, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
South America and Chile

3619. Conference for Global Development Cooperation

Author:
Jimmy Carter
Publication Date:
12-1992
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Conference for Global Development Cooperation, convened by former President Jimmy Carter and United Nations Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali, was held at The Carter Center in Atlanta, Georgia on December 4 and 5, 1992.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and Third World
Political Geography:
United Nations and Georgia

3620. Common Sense on Competitiveness

Author:
Jimmy Carter
Publication Date:
04-1988
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The United States faces a competitiveness crisis. The indicators are abundant. An alarming number of American students and workers do not seem to have the skills needed to succeed in the more demanding jobs of the modern economy. Many American inventions never make it from drawing board to marketplace, or arrive too late - long after aggressive foreign firms have captured customer loyalty. Some American products have been improperly designed or priced too high to compete with top-quality foreign imports. Partly as a result, not enough American companies have penetrated foreign markets with U.S. goods and services.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States