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17141. EU CRISIS RESPONSE CAPABILITY: Institutions and Processes for Conflict Prevention and Management

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is less than a decade since the European Union (EU) was formally established and set itself the ambitious project of developing a common foreign and security policy. Less than four years have passed since the signing of the Amsterdam Treaty which provided key institutional foundations of that policy. And it is less than eighteen months since many of the bodies responsible for implementing the most difficult aspects – those related directly to crisis response – have been created. This process may be well appreciated by those closely involved in it, but it is opaque and puzzling to many others. This report aims to clarify the process for those outside it. It describes the roles of the new bodies, their relationship to previously existing ones, and the basic fit between their functions and the goals of conflict prevention and management. This report is largely descriptive, but its analysis of the institutions and processes does provide a foundation for some recommendations for improvement as the EU carries its work forward.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe

17142. The European Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO): Crisis Response in the Grey Lane

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This briefing paper examines in broad terms likely directions in the policy of the European Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO) in the next two to three years, with special reference to its position in the development of European Union (EU) crisis response structures and processes. Its particular focus is on how ECHO has responded to the "grey area" dilemmas: whether and how to separate emergency humanitarian assistance from longer term development assistance, and from "political" projects generally. Section I provides an overview of ECHO's structure and funding; Section II describes how the grey area has been addressed to date; Section III discusses how the issue arises again in the context of the development of the EU's new conflict prevention and management ambitions; while the concluding Section IV draws upon recent experience in Macedonia to support the case for a more pragmatic approach to ECHO's role.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe and Macedonia

17143. HIV/AIDS as a Security Issue

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is projected that, at current rates, more than 100 million people worldwide will have been infected with HIV by 2005. Where the epidemic has hit hardest, Sub-Saharan Africa, experts believe AIDS will eventually kill one in four adults. Seven countries already have adult prevalence rates above 20 per cent of the population.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, and Southeast Asia

17144. Macedonia: The Last Chance for Peace

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the past three months, since mid March 2001, Macedonia has stared into the abyss of inter-ethnic conflict, pulled away from the precipice, squandered opportunities for a political settlement, then returned as if sleepwalking to the brink of civil war. The downward spiral was interrupted on 11 June, when the Macedonian government and the ethnic Albanian rebels agreed to a ceasefire. The following day the government abruptly endorsed a peace plan proposed by President Boris Trajkovski. For their part, the NLA guerrillas expressed a readiness to halt their insurgency but want to see concrete steps towards improving Albanian rights.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

17145. A Fair Exchange: Aid to Yugoslavia for Regional Stability

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The donors' conference for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), planned for 29 June 2001 in Brussels, will set the pattern of international economic assistance to Belgrade for the next year or more. In return for substantial donor support, the international community should require the FRY to undertake a number of specific steps that are essential for increasing regional stability.
Topic:
Debt, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Brussels

17146. No Early Exit: NATO's Continuing Challenge in Bosnia

Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
NATO-led troops have played a vital part in securing the peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) since their arrival in December 1995. Although authorised by the Dayton Peace Agreement to assist civilian implementation, the military is not obliged to do so. Yet, by evolving in response to developments, the mission has contributed - albeit belatedly and inconsistently - to international civilian efforts to construct a viable state. This shift was reflected in the change of the mission's name in 1996 from Implementation Force (IFOR) to Stabilisation Force (SFOR).
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

17147. Albania: The State of the Nation 2001

Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This report describes the current situation in Albania, paying particular attention to relations with the country's Balkan neighbours, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia and Greece. The recent upsurge in fighting in the Presevo Valley of southern Serbia and in Macedonia has damaged the reputation of all Albanians in the region and has once more raised the spectre of a Greater Albania. Consequently, the Albanian government has been at pains to stress that it does not support the ethnic Albanian insurgents and wishes to see the territorial integrity of Macedonia upheld. To this end, Tirana has requested NATO's assistance to secure the Albania-Macedonia border, and has called for a solution to the crisis through dialogue.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Greece, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, and Tirana

17148. The Macedonian Question: Reform or Rebellion

Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In late February, violence flared in Albanian-inhabited villages in northern Macedonia close to the border with Kosovo. In mid March, the violence spread to Macedonia's second largest city, Tetovo. The rebels claimed to be defending themselves against Macedonian security forces, i.e. their own government, and to be fighting for Albanian national rights in Macedonia. The coalition government in Skopje promptly raised the alarm, blaming Kosovo Albanian elements for exporting rebellion to Macedonia, and calling for the NATO-led forces in Kosovo (KFOR) to seal the border. The rebels claimed they were local Albanians, numbering 2,000 and recruiting dozens of volunteers from the surrounding area every day.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Albania

17149. Montenegro: Time to Decide. A Pre-election Briefing

Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The extraordinary parliamentary election to be held in Montenegro on 22 April 2001 is focused on the single issue of the republics future status, whether in a continued federal union with Serbia, or as an independent state. The election was called following the break-up of Montenegros ruling coalition at the end of December 2000 over this very question. Following the ouster of Slobodan Miloević as president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) in October 2000, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanović opted to formalise the republics break with the FRY, which in practice had already ceased to function in any meaningful sense. On 28 December 2000 two of the parties in the ruling .For a Better Life. (D.B) coalition, Djukanovićs Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the Social Democratic party (SDP), adopted a new Platform on relations with Serbia, which envisaged a loose association of fully independent states. The anti independence Peoples Party (NS) promptly left the DŽB coalition, thus precipitating the forthcoming election.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

17150. After Milosevic: A Practical Agenda for Lasting Balkans Peace

Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Slobodan Milosevic has gone, but he has left behind him in the Balkans a bitter legacy of death, destruction and distrust. His democratic overthrow was a watershed, but the potential for renewed conflict in the region remains dangerously high, and it is vital that there be forward - looking and comprehensive action by the international community to address the continuing sources of underlying tension.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

17151. Montenegro: Settling for Independence?

Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
International relief at the fall of the regime of Slobodan Miloević has been marred by dismay at the prospect of a breakaway from the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) by Montenegro. As long as Milo.ević was in power, the international community supported Montenegro.s moves to distance itself from Belgrade. With Milo.ević gone, it was widely expected that Belgrade and Podgorica could patched up their relationship, and find a satisfactory accommodation within the framework of the FRY. Montenegrin President Milo Djukanović.s decision to opt instead for independence has caused international consternation.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Montenegro

17152. Turning Strife to Advantage: A Blueprint to Integrate the Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The current attempts by the leadership of the Croat Democratic Union (HDZ) of Bosnia and Herzegovina to secede from the legal and constitutional structures of the state are the most serious challenge yet to the post-war order established by the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

17153. Religion in Kosovo

Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This report seeks to describe the current position of the three major religious communities in Kosovo. In part, it aims to clarify misconceptions about the involvement of religion in the Kosovo conflict. It also proposes some areas where religion might serve as a means to encourage reconciliation among the peoples of Kosovo.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Religion, and Ethnic Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

17154. Can International Capital Standards Strengthen Banks in Emerging Markets?

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Who should determine banks' capital standards: authorities or markets? What is the right definition of core capital: equity only or equity plus subordinated debt? Can the assessment of banks' individual credit risks by external rating agencies be of equal or better quality than the assessments derived from banks' own internal rating systems? These are some of the key financial regulatory issues currently being discussed by analysts in industrial countries, especially in the context of the proposed modification to the Basel Capital Adequacy Accord: Basel II is expected to replace the original 1988 Accord.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

17155. Macroeconomic Implications of the New Economy

Author:
Martin Neil Baily
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Together with many policymakers and economists, I see in the 1990s expansion signs that new technologies that had been emerging for some time were finally paying off in stronger economic performance. I will use the expression 'new economy' to describe this period, although I recognize the pitfalls in this name. New economy is probably too broad a term and implies both more change and more permanent change than actually took place. But 'information economy' seems too narrow a term to describe the set of interrelated forces bringing about change in the economy, that include increased globalization, a more intense pressure of competition, the rapid development, adoption and use of information and communications technology (IT) and a favorable economic policy environment.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

17156. Finance and Changing US-Japan Relations: Convergence Without Leverage—Until Now

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In the postwar era, US-Japan economic relations have been characterized by substantial tensions, yet this has not damaged the underlying security relationship or critically harmed the multilateral economic framework. In fact, these two economies have become more integrated over time even as these tensions played out. These tensions, however, have required an enormous expenditure of political capital and officials' time on both sides of the Pacific and have led to foregone opportunities for institution building and policy coordination. They have deepened since Japan “caught up” with the United States around 1980, and Japanese and US firms began increasingly to compete for profits and market share in the same sectors. Moreover, as both the US and Japanese economies continue to mature – both in terms of the age of their populations and their industrial mix – they will likely face even greater tensions between them over allocating the management and costs of industrial adjustment.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Israel, and East Asia

17157. Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
A great deal of attention has been focused recently on the impact of exchange rate regimes, just as previous empirical research examined central bank autonomy and announced targets for domestic monetary policy. To date, however, these three elements of monetary frameworks have been assessed in isolation from one another, and all have been viewed in terms of a unidimensional spectrum of fixity versus flexibility. Using a newly-constructed dataset, this paper jointly analyzes and compares all three elements' effects on inflation and exchange rate behavior. The results show that each of the three elements has independent and distinct effects on nominal outcomes. Key findings include: (1) although hard pegs do tend to reduce inflation and attenuate exchange rate fluctuations within some range, they are clearly characterized by large devaluations; (2) central bank autonomy is associated with a more stable exchange rate and lower inflation; and (3) explicit inflation targeting reduces both inflation and its persistence, consistent with the view that inflation targeting increases flexibility through transparency. These results raise the possibility that a combination of central bank autonomy, inflation targeting, and a free float might offer the same benefits as any intermediate exchange rate regime on its own, without the proclivity to occasional large depreciations.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

17158. Rating Banks in Emerging Markets: What Credit Rating Agencies Should Learn From Financial Indicators

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The rating agencies' and bank supervisors' records of prompt identification of banking problems in emerging markets has not been satisfactory. This paper suggests that such deficiencies could be explained by the use of financial indicators that, while appropriate for industrial countries, do not work in emerging markets. Among the conclusions, this paper shows that the most commonly used indicator of banking problems in industrial countries, the capital-to-asset ratio, has performed poorly as an indicator of banking problems in Latin America and East Asia. This is because of (a) severe deficiencies in the accounting and regulatory framework and (b) lack of liquid markets for bank shares, subordinated debt and other bank liabilities and assets needed to validate the “real” worth of a bank as opposed to its accounting value.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
East Asia and Latin America

17159. Unchanging Innovation and Changing Economic Performance in Japan

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Toyota Commemorative Museum of Industry and Technology gives its visitors much to ponder. Established at the site in Nagoya where in 1911 Sakichi Toyoda founded his automatic loom factory (the basis of the family fortune, which later funded his son Kiichiro's development of automobile production), the museum was opened on June 11, 1994, the 100th anniversary of Toyoda's birth. It is a popular stop on field trips for Japanese schoolchildren, who are required to study in the 3rd grade the automobile industry. The messages, which Toyota wishes to instill in its young visitors, are the importance of “making things” and of “creativity and research.” And confronting all museum visitors upon entry, having central place in the vast and largely empty first room of the exhibits, is Sakichi Toyoda's one-of-a-kind vertical circular loom.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and East Asia

17160. IMF Structural Conditionality: How Much Is Too Much?

Author:
Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
“...detailed conditionality (often including dozens of conditions) has burdened IMF programs in recent years and made such programs unwieldy, highly conflictive, time consuming to negotiate, and often ineffectual.” “The IMF should cease lending to countries for long-term development assistance (as in sub-Saharan Africa) and for long-term structural transformation (as in post-Communist transition economies)...The current practice of extending long-term loans in exchange for member countries' agreeing to conditions set by the IMF should end.”
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa