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16942. Northeast Asia: Static but Stable
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This memorandum was prepared by the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia based on a meeting held on 7 July 1999. The National Intelligence Council (NIC) routinely sponsors meetings with outside experts to gain knowledge and insights to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in this meeting summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia
16943. Recent Chinese Leadership Priorities and Their Implications for the United States Findings
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The National Intelligence Council (NIC) routinely sponsors conferences with outside experts to gain knowledge and insights to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in this conference summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
16944. Federalism in Russia: How Is It Working
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This conference was sponsored by the National Intelligence Council and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the US Department of State. John Battilega of the Science Applications International Corporation served as rapporteur. The views expressed in this conference summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
16945. Population, Urbanization, Environment, and Security: A Summary of the Issues
- Author:
- Ellen Brennan
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- One of the most striking features of world population growth is the rising predominance of the developing world. Currently, 81 million persons are added annually to the world's population—95 percent of them in developing countries. The second striking feature is related to urban growth. Although the growth of world urban population has been slower than projected twenty years ago, it has nevertheless been unprecedented. In 1950, less than 30 per cent of the world's population were urban dwellers. Between 1995 and 2030, the world's urban population is projected to double—from 2.6 to 5.1 billion, by which time three-fifths of the world's population will be living in urban areas (United Nations 1998b). As in the case of total population, there will be a significant redistribution of world urban population between the developed and the developing regions. Currently, 59 million new urban dwellers are added annually— 89 percent in developing countries. By 2025-2030, 76 million will be added annually—98 percent in developing countries.
- Topic:
- Security, Demographics, Environment, and Industrial Policy
16946. Organized Crime: Its Influence on International Security and Urban Community Life in the Industrial Cities of the Urals
- Author:
- Yuriy Voronin
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Russia is facing new difficulties as a result of negative processes in the economy, the deterioration of interethnic relations, and the social polarization of its society, which have created a direct threat to the security of the urban life in the country. This threat is a consequence of the increase in the proportion of the population living below the poverty line, the stratification of society into a small group of rich citizens and a vast majority of needy citizens, and the escalation of social tension, especially in the industrial cities of the Urals, Siberia, and other regions. At present there is a twenty-eight fold difference between the richest ten percent of the Russian population and the poorest ten percent. Although this unequal distribution of wealth is not very different from what existed in the pre-Revolutionary period in Russia, the striking discrepancy is shocking to a population that was accustomed to an ideological commitment to equality and -- despite the collapse of Communism -- continues to retain the socialist ideal of economic parity. Citizens perceive that they have been "robbed" of the assets that they were supposed to have inherited from the Soviet state. Ironically, the new holders of wealth are an alliance of former Communist Party bureaucrats, organized criminals, and dishonest businesspersons. This so-called "gangster industrial complex" is as oblivious to the needs of the people as was the former Soviet ruling elite.
- Topic:
- Security and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Asia
16947. Public Housing in Washington, D.C.: With Moscow in Mind
- Author:
- Vyacheslav Glazychev
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- The pitiful state of public housing in Washington, D.C., was well known in 1994, when Vyacheslav Glazychev, president and founder of the Academy of the Urban Environment in Moscow, was here trying to understand the function of the Advisory Neighborhood Commissions and in 1997 when he returned to spend several months as a Guest Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Based on his observations of Washington, D.C. and his extensive experience in Moscow, he found that despite the obvious differences in handling the issue of public housing in Washington, D.C. and Moscow, at least one thing is comparable: in both cities money spent on maintenance and repair has been insufficient while priority has long been given to new construction.
- Topic:
- Economics and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
16948. Challenging Traditional Participation in Brazil: The Goals of Participatory Budgeting
- Author:
- Pedro Jacobi
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Using the mechanism of “participatory budgeting” implemented in the city of Porto Alegre, Pedro Jacobi analyses a new practice of resource allocation in several Brazilian urban areas. He comes to the conclusion that participatory budgeting is an effective tool in the democratization of the city's management— helping to break old patterns of clientelist relations. According to Jacobi, the new mechanism promotes decentralization of municipal decision-making and increases public control over the city's investment policies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- South America and Latin America
16949. The Legacy of Habitat II: Issues of Governance
- Author:
- K.C Sivaramakrishnan
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Debate on how the Habitat II Conference in Istanbul influenced thinking on issues of urban governance will have to be preceded by some understanding of what was sought and what was achieved at the conference. The Istanbul conference was an international “happening” that began with a series of events before and during the conference itself. Habitat II adopted a Global Plan of Action (GPA) and an Istanbul Declaration (ID) as the official documents of the conference, summarizing the discussions and the outcomes. This paper is limited to the discussions and recommendations of the GPA on the issues of urban governance, which are gathered mainly in its part D, under the title “Capacity Building and Institutional Development.” To what extent does this chapter reflect an understanding of the realities of urban governance? What is the assessment of the new challenges in this regard, in the context of major political, economic, and social shifts across the world in the wake of increased globalization of trade, investment, and information?
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Istanbul
16950. Yet Another Transition? Urbanization, Class Formation, and the End of National Liberation Struggle in South Africa
- Author:
- David Everatt
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- South Africa is one of the most unequal societies on earth. While all South Africans now share equal political rights, they have very different social, economic, and other needs. This is true among and between black South Africans. The black middle class and new ruling class elements have left the townships to live in formerly white-only suburbs, leaving townships more evenly poor. Resentment among squatters, backyard dwellers, and formal homeowners result from high levels of exploitation of these informal settlement residents by their (black) landlords. ANC appeals for township residents to pay their rent and service charges have been ignored. This divide between the black South Africans in turn impacts politics at the local level. Those living in backyard or informal dwellings lack an organizational home. Fear of reprisal from landlord-cum-political leaders prevents many poorer township residents from attending ANC meetings. At the bottom, below even the squatters, lie the migrants from outside South Africa, blamed for crime, dirt, disease and for taking away the few social and economic opportunities that exist. The ANC cannot promise a radical transformation of South African society or economy, bringing poorer citizens back into the fold with talk of dramatic redistribution.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Industrial Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
16951. Territorial Exclusion and Violence: The Case of São Paulo, Brazil
- Author:
- Raquel Rolnik
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- One of the single most defining features of Brazilian cities today is their dual built environment: one landscape is produced by private entrepreneurs and contained within the framework of detailed urban legislation, and the other, three times larger, is self-produced by the poor and situated in a gray area between the legal and the illegal. In addition to being an expression of economic and social disparities, this contrast has profound implications for the form and function of the cities. The sprawl of what are here termed “precarious peripheries” has led to a great disconnection of poorly urbanized spaces from the city center where jobs and cultural and economic opportunities are concentrated. The effects of this persistent “territorial exclusion” are devastating and occur in both the peripheries and the city center.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Industrial Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and Latin America
16952. Ethnicity, Capital Formation, and Conflict
- Author:
- Richard N. Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- "Development" implies change over time. More specifically, the term implies that particular features of the society, the economy and the polity increase in magnitude with the passage of time.This essay treats development as the process of structural change. As societies develop, they transform: towns grow, industry expands, and per capita incomes rise as labor shifts from employment in agriculture to employment in industry (Kuznets 1966; Polanyi 1944; Chenery and Taylor 1968 ). One source of increased incomes is a growing stock of productive inputs and, in particular, of capital. As each worker gains access to an increased stock of capital, each becomes more productive and the level of output per capita rises. Another source is technical change. In industry, possibilities exist for increasing returns to scale and for complementarities that agriculture lacks. Labor employed in town gains access to technologies that are more productive than those in villages. The shift of employment from agriculture to industry and from village to town therefore results in a rise in per capita output.
- Topic:
- Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Africa
16953. Illuminating Tomorrow's War
- Author:
- Martin C. Libicki
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The United States is midway through what may be called a revolution in military affairs (RMA). 9 This revolution opened in the 1970s with the development and refinement of precision-guided munitions 1° (PGMs), which can hit anything that can be located. It is likely to culminate with the multiplication and integration of the DOD C41SR assets, thereby creating a well-populated Grid. In the process, the physical battlespace will become illuminated better than ever. As this occurs, conventional warfare will change from force on force to hide-and-seek. Hence the need for a Grid capable of illuminating the battlespace, a case that rests on five tenets: With precision weaponry, seeing a target is tantamount to being able to kill it. The guidance for such weaponry is potentially shifting from shooters or internal sensors to externally provided information. Defenses exist against PGMs, but the link between seeing and hitting is likely to strengthen over time.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States
16954. The Revolution in Military Affairs: Allied Perspectives
- Author:
- Robbin F. Laird and Holger H. Mey
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The revolution in military affairs (RMA) is an American concept that frames a debate about the restructuring of American military forces in the period of globalization of the American economy. A core task for U.S. allies is to seek to understand the American debate and to identify opportunities for and the risks to themselves in variant patterns of development of the American military in the years ahead.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
16955. Protecting Human Rights: The Challenge to Humanitarian Organizations
- Author:
- Diane Paul, Larry Minear, and Mark Frohardt
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- This occasional paper highlights the practical challenges faced by humanitarian organizations in protecting civilians in today's armed conflicts. It understands the concept of protection to involve ensuring respect for the full range of human rights, which, enumerated in the United Nations Charter, are the birthright of every human being.
- Topic:
- Human Rights and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
16956. A Humanitarian Practitioner's Guide to International Human Right Law
- Author:
- William G. O'Neill
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- The term “human rights” evokes a wide variety of reactions. Many of those working in international development, commercial lending, and diplomatic institutions regard human rights as highly political and confrontational intrusions on their activities. Many in the international assistance community and the military view human rights as a threat to “neutrality” that may undermine access to populations needing assistance or the success of peacekeeping operations. Some governments in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa dismiss the concept of human rights as a western creation that fails to respect local culture and traditions and undermines state sovereignty. Perhaps the most favorable views of human rights are held by the international public, which is appalled by flagrant onslaughts against fundamental human decency and dignity represented by such practices as genocide, ethnic cleansing, and the use of starvation of civilian populations as a weapon of war.
- Topic:
- Human Rights and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, and Asia
16957. Security and Development in the Lens of Complexity Theory: The Baltic and Russia, A.D. 1000 to 2000
- Author:
- Walter C. Clemens, Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- This paper suggests how basic concepts of complexity theory can be applied to international relations and—as a test case—to analyze security and development issues in the Baltic states and Russia. Complexity theory suggests ways to assess the fitness of states—defined as the capacity to cope with complex challenges. Fitness depends not just on material strength relative to changing conditons but also on a capacity for self-organization. Societies that are too rigid or too chaotic lack this capacity. Complexity theory's emphasis on coevolution reminds us to analyze actors in relation to each other and to their common environment.
- Political Geography:
- Russia
16958. Explaining Political Corruption: An Institutional-Choice Approach
- Author:
- Michael w. Collier
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- This paper presents and institutional-choice model that addresses the problem of political corruption, the abuse of public office for private gain. The institutional-choice model first employs a rational-choice game, and then through a constructivist analyses links the game solutions to a surrounding institutional structure that influences agent decisions. This paper models political corruption as a coordination game among a state's ruling elite and citizen groups—a game with multiple solutions that reveal the range of corruption expected among states. A constructivist theory of rules is then used to build the causal mechanisms explaining the domestic and international causes of political corruption. The paper highlights the need to build self-enforcing mechanisms to police the conduct of public officials.This paper presents and institutional-choice model that addresses the problem of political corruption, the abuse of public office for private gain. The institutional-choice model first employs a rational-choice game, and then through a constructivist analyses links the game solutions to a surrounding institutional structure that influences agent decisions. This paper models political corruption as a coordination game among a state's ruling elite and citizen groups—a game with multiple solutions that reveal the range of corruption expected among states. A constructivist theory of rules is then used to build the causal mechanisms explaining the domestic and international causes of political corruption. The paper highlights the need to build self-enforcing mechanisms to police the conduct of public officials.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Politics
16959. Popes, Kings and Endogenous Institutions: The Concordat of Worms and the Origins of Sovereignty
- Author:
- Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- Very rough preliminary and incomplete draft The modern state-centric international system is generally thought to have its origins in the Treaty of Westphalia. From that perspective, the modern sovereign state owes its origins to the resolution of the Thirty Years War. Prior to 1648, international politics are thought to have been less territorially focused, with feudal ties taking precedence over considerations of state. Here I set out a modest theory of competition between the Catholic church and European kings, especially the Holy Roman Emperor and the kings of France and England, during the years from 1122 onward. That theory suggests that the modern territorial state has its origins in the Concordat of Worms, 500 years earlier than is generally thought. It also suggests that the development of important institutions of the modern sovereign state are an endogenous product of strategic maneuvering between the Catholic Church and European kings over political control within their domains. Naturally, other factors, including competition between kings and barons, and aristocrats and merchants also play an important part in the evolution of political institutions. Those other considerations, however, are not examined here so that what I propose is a partial, incomplete account of the early developments that culminated in the modern territorial, sovereign state. Specifically, the theory maintains that the development of “modern” political institutions and the history of economic growth in Europe are to a significant degree the consequence of competition between monarchs and the Catholic church. This views stands in contrast to the general accounts of economic growth or of institution building found in the sociological literature beginning with Weber or in the historical and much of the political economy literature.
- Topic:
- International Law, Religion, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16960. Neorealism's Logic and Evidence: When is a Theory Falsified?
- Author:
- Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Studies Association
- Abstract:
- Knowledge progresses through a dynamic process. Arguments are made for the plausibility of hypotheses. The logic of such arguments is scrutinized and the evidence for and against the inferences drawn from the arguments is evaluated. Progress is made by reducing the set of logically and empirically plausible explanations of the phenomena of interest. Such reduction takes place on at least two levels. Some seemingly plausible explanations are eliminated for want of logical coherence. Others, passing the test of logical coherence, are superceded by alternatives that account for a broader array of empirical phenomena and/or a broader set of facts. In this essay I suggest that on both grounds, the neorealist research program is no longer a plausible explanation of the central phenomena in international relations with which it is concerned.
- Topic:
- International Relations