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Begin New Search Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 25 Years

17101. Old Wine in New Bottles: The Pentagon's East Asia Security Strategy Report

Author:
Doug Bandow
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
To contain Soviet-led communism and, secondarily, to prevent a militarily resurgent Japan, Washington established a network of alliances, bases, and deployments throughout East Asia after World War II. By the 1990s the Soviet Union had imploded, China had become a reasonably restrained international player, and other communist states had lost their ideological edge. At the same time, the noncommunist nations had leaped ahead economically. Despite such momentous developments, however, U.S. policy remains fundamentally the same.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Washington, Israel, and Soviet Union

17102. Is Readiness Overrated? Implications for a Tiered Readiness Force Structure

Author:
James L. George
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Readiness, the capability to respond quickly to a conflict with the appropriate force, is considered one of the most important elements in defense planning. From one-third to well over one-half of the defense budget goes toward maintaining readiness. Few people questioned the need for readiness, especially after the attack by North Korea against South Korea in 1950 and during the Cold War, when the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact was poised to quickly thrust into Western Europe without much warning.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Cold War
Political Geography:
United States, South Korea, North Korea, and Western Europe

17103. In Praise and Criticism of Mexico's Pension Reform

Author:
L. Jacobo Rodriguez
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The privatization of Mexico's government-run pay-as-you-go social security system, which went into effect in July 1997, is the Ernesto Zedillo administration's most important structural reform. It is a measure that, if successful, will help bring much-needed social and economic stability. The Mexican peso crisis of 1994–95 underscore d the fragility of Mexico's economy, its need for independent institutions, and its need for a large pool of long-term domestic savings. An increase in the rate of private savings in Mexico, which this reform will promote, would make the Mexican economy less dependent on short-term fluctuations of international capital flows and, thus, more stable. More important still, the privatization of social security will erect one of the basic pillars of a free society by turning Mexico into a country of property-owning workers.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and Privatization
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

17104. National Missile Defense: Examining the Options

Author:
Charles V. Peña and Barbara Conry
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
To date, the debate surrounding national missile defense (NMD) has been dominated by political rhetoric. Supporters (usually conservatives) often paint a “doom-and-gloom” picture, pointing out that the United States is vulnerable to an attack by ballistic missiles. Critics (usually liberals) defend the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty as the cornerstone of deterrence and stability and argue that any defensive deployment would upset the balance between the offensive strategic nuclear forces of the United States and Russia.
Topic:
Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

17105. U.S. Assistance for Market Reforms: Foreign Aid Failures in Russia and the Former Soviet Bloc

Author:
Janine R. Wedel
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, the governments of the United States and other Western countries have provided massive aid to promote a transition to the free market in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. But aid for market reforms in the region has been largely ineffective. Whether provided in the form of technical assistance, grants to political groups or nongovernmental organizations, loans and guarantees to the private sector, or direct financial aid to post-communist governments, that aid has been plagued by a number of problems. The failed $22.6 billion bailout of Russia by the International Monetary Fund in July 1998 only confirmed the flawed nature of the aid-for-reform approach.
Topic:
Economics and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

17106. Tilting at Windmills: Post-Cold War Military Threats to U.S. Security

Author:
Ivan Eland
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Serious military threats to U.S. security have diminished dramatically since the end of the Cold War. The threat from conventional Russian military forces has all but disintegrated and would take many years to reconstitute. China would take 20 to 30 years to transform its bloated and obsolete military into a major threat to U.S. vital interests. The militaries in both nations should be watched, but they may never develop into credible threats.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

17107. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: The Costs Outweigh the Benefits

Author:
Kathleen C. Bailey
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is now before the U.S. Senate for its advice and consent. The treaty bans all explosive testing of nuclear weapons. Advocates of the CTBT make several arguments in support of the treaty. The reasons reduce to two points: the ban will constrain the modernization and development of nuclear weapons by the nations that already possess them, and it will help prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to additional nations. Both objectives are set out in the CTBT's preamble.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States

17108. Civil Society, the Public Sector, and Poor Communities

Author:
Kingsley G. Thomas and James Gibson
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The current devolution debate has focused on shifting responsibilities from the federal level to the states. A byproduct of this shift has been renewed attention to an often neglected element of the policy mix—the costs and benefits of different local institutionalarrangement—and to the potential roles of civil society and community-based initiatives in that mix. The local tableau has recently been rediscovered as a vital leg on which the performance of the public sector is dependent. Students of government are only beginning to understand this play between civil society and the public sector. Here we focus especially on the dynamics within poor communities, where simple assistance is no longer considered adequate to solve problems without the necessary institutional infrastructure that is sometimes included under the label “civil society.”
Topic:
Civil Society, Human Welfare, and Poverty
Political Geography:
United States

17109. The Internet Society and its Struggle for Recognition and Influence

Author:
Raymund Werle and Volker Leib
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
With the formation of a private non–profit corporation providing mainly technical coordination and guidance for the global Internet, a new, as yet uncertain, era of the network's governance began in November 1998. The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) assumed the responsibility for functions which previously were guaranteed by the US government. Thus ICANN serves as an example of private governance with global significance, in an industry which can neither be completely left to the market nor exclusively be governed by national public authorities or international intergovernmental organizations.
Topic:
Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

17110. The Viability of Advanced Welfare States in the International Economy: Vulnerabilities and Options

Author:
Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The paper represents a preliminary and partial analysis of the information collected in a comparative 12-country study of the adjustment of national employment and social-welfare policies to the increasing internationalization of product and capital markets. After the postwar decades, when national governments were still able to control their economic boundaries, the first international challenge came in the form of the oil-price crisis of 1973/74, which confronted industrial economies with the double threat of cost-push inflation and demand-gap unemployment. It could be met if countries were able to achieve a form of “Keynesian concertation” in which expansionary monetary and fiscal policies would defend employment while union wage restraint could be relied on to fight inflation. For this solution, “corporatist” industrial-relations institutions were a necessary but not a sufficient condition.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy

17111. Social Funds in Stabilization and Adjustment Programmes

Author:
Giovanni Cornia
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Well before the introduction of adjustment-related Social Funds (SFs), many developing countries had developed a variety of safety nets comprising food subsidies, nutrition interventions, employment-based schemes and targeted transfers. Middle-income and a few low-income countries had also achieved extensive coverage in the field of social insurance. In countries committed to fighting poverty, these programmes absorbed considerable resources (2-5 per cent of GDP, excluding social insurance) and had a large impact on job creation, income support and nutrition: for instance, in 1983, Chile's public works programme absorbed 13 per cent of the labour force. Their ability to expand quickly depended on a permanent structure of experienced staff, good portfolios of projects, clear management rules, adequate allocation of domestic resources, supply-driven execution and, with the exception of food subsidies, fairly good targeting.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Asia, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and Chile

17112. Regulation of Social Services in the Least Developed Countries: What are the Issues at Stake?

Author:
Cecilia Ugaz
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The privatization trend affecting the state involvement in productive sectors is also challenging the role of the state in the provision of social services. And, as private participation in social sectors increases, a regulatory framework is needed to ensure that the market reaches socially efficient outcomes. The regulation of social services carries the problem of conceptualization. What is the aim of regulatory intervention in social sectors? And what is the market structure to which this regulatory constraint will be applied to? These are the questions we discuss in this paper, is devoted to analysing the role of regulation of social services in low-income countries within the so-called mixed economy of care, characterized by multiple providers: the state, the private sector, non-profit organizations.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Government, and Third World

17113. IMF Model and Resource-Abundant Transition Economies: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Author:
Richard M. Auty
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The IMF model of the economic transition stresses the role of macro policy reform. It concludes that rapid reform to a market economy is preferable to slow reform because late reformers experience very steep transition recessions and severe contractions in government revenues. However, the predictive power of the IMF model has weakened through the late-1990s. This is because it under-estimates the role of initial conditions that include the natural resource endowment as well as institutional capital and the legacy of produced capital. This paper demonstrates how the predictive power of the IMF model can be improved by taking account of the impact of natural resource abundance for the transition. Resource abundance can feed corruption and diminish the urgency of reform, thereby intensifying the adverse effect of a retarded transition. It can also amplify the contraction of the non-booming tradeable sector due to Dutch disease effects. These adverse features are likely to be more severe where the resource endowment creates point source socio-economic linkages, as in mining, as opposed to the diffuse linkages associated with crop production by yeoman farmers. The detrimental effects of resource abundance are also likely to be more severe where institutional capital is deficient. Consistent with such a resource-constrained variant of the IMF model; resource-abundant Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan both delayed their reforms and both exhibit high levels of corruption relative to the transition economies as a whole. Also, economic recovery in Kazakhstan is slower than the original IMF model predicts because investment in minerals strengthened the exchange rate and retarded economic diversification. In the case of Uzbekistan, a natural resource endowment that yielded especially buoyant crop revenues (that eased the foreign exchange constraint) helps to explain why the growth collapse is less than the unadjusted IMF model predicts for such a slow reformer. This explanation is still too simple, however. Uzbekistan also benefits from robust social capital and limited obsolete industry, both of which retard the decline in government revenue. Finally, the resource-constrained IMF model suggests that the Uzbek policy of gradual reform represses exports and intensifies economic distortions. This will lock the economy into a staple trap and lead to a growth collapse, as the experience of many resource-abundant developing market economies testifies
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Environment, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Kazakhstan, Asia, Uzbekistan, and Dutch

17114. Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Nordic Perspective on the Dutch Disease

Author:
Thorvaldur Gylfason
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper begins by offering a quick glance of the Nordic economies and of some aspects of their economic growth performance and natural resource dependence since 1970. Thereafter, it reviews some of the main symptoms of the Dutch disease, and then considers whether these symptoms are observable in some of the Nordic countries in view of their abundant natural resources. The experience of Iceland and its fish seems an obvious point of departure. The paper then discusses the less obvious case of Norway and its oil (and fish!) and, at last, also reviews some possible linkages between forest resources and economic growth in Finland.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, Norway, and Dutch

17115. Development Discontinuities: Leaders and Intermediaries in Producers' Associations

Author:
Tito Bianchi
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The development literature considers associations an important economic development tool that allows producers to pursue their economic welfare collectively and through participatory means. This paper comparatively analyses the experience of three associations of agricultural producers in the underdeveloped regions of Brazil and Italy that were successful in this economic development task. Their experience, however, challenges a commonly held view about the participatory nature of associations.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, Brazil, South America, and Latin America

17116. On the Regulation of Telecommunications Markets

Author:
Manfred J. Holler
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper discusses the theoretical concepts underlying recent developments in the regulation of telecommunications in Europe, the USA and developing countries with respect to efficiency and welfare. It focuses on analysing standardization problems, pricing rules and entry condition related to networks and network effects and derives preliminary policy recommendations for the telecommunications industry through a discussion of network models and related empirical evidence.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

17117. Resource-Led Growth — A Long-Term Perspective: The Relevance of the 1870-1914 Experience for Today's Developing Economies

Author:
Ronald Findlay and Mats Lundahl
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Resource-Led Growth – A Long-Term Perspective surveys the 1870-1914 experience of growth in resource-rich economies: the so-called regions of recent settlement, some tropical countries and some mineral-based export economies. First, three contrasting stylized views of resource-led development are presented. Thereafter the picture of international trade in primary products and the migration of production factors between 1870 and 1914 is sketched. The third section presents some models that may be used to analyse trade and factor movements in the context of resource-rich (staples) economies and provides some details of the experience of fifteen countries: Canada, the United States, Australia and Argentina among the regions of recent settlement, Brazil, Costa Rica, Colombia, Ceylon, Malaya, Burma, Siam and the Gold Coast in the tropical group, and Bolivia, Chile and South Africa among the mineral exporters.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, South Africa, Burma, Chile, and Bolivia

17118. Group Behaviour and Development

Author:
Frances Stewart, Judith Heyer, and Rosemary Thorp
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A very large amount of activity occurs within groups (that is within families, firms, co-operatives, communities or governments). Yet most economic analysis focuses on market transactions between these agents. The purpose of the study is to analyse within group behaviour. Evidence suggests some groups perform well from the perspective of efficiency, equity and well-being, while others perform poorly. The study aims to identify the main causes for these different outcomes, developing a preliminary analysis of modes of group behaviour, and influences on them.
Topic:
Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets

17119. Economic Theories of the Household: A Critical Review

Author:
Päivi Mattila-Wiro
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to review the principal assumptions and aspects of the unitary household model and collective models of household behaviour. Empirical studies are presented to assess whether the theories can offer adequate descriptions of household behaviour and to examine the types of policy implications that can be drawn from these. The paper concludes that the models reviewed lack the analytical tools to provide an understanding of the reality of households. Theories are unrealistic and therefore are of little use in the design of policies or projects which endeavour to help people
Topic:
Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets

17120. Inequality in Income and Access to Education: A Cross-Country Analysis

Author:
Daniele Checchi
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In the current debate on the relationship between inequality in income distribution and growth one of the possible link works through the access to education. After reviewing this debate, a formal model shows how the imperfection of financial markets makes educational choices dependent on the distribution of family incomes. This leads to two testable predictions in the analysis of aggregate data on school enrolments: a negative (linear) relation with the Gini coefficient on incomes distribution; and a positive dependence on public resources invested in education and/or on skill premium in the labour market. These predictions are then tested on a (unbalanced) panel of 102 countries for the period 1960-90. The main findings of this analysis are that, once we control for the degree of development with the (log of) per capita output, financial constraints seem mainly relevant in limiting the access to secondary education. However, when considering gender differences, there is evidence that female participation in education is more strongly conditioned by family wealth, starting from primary education. On the contrary there is no clear evidence of a relevant impact of invested resources, but at the tertiary level.
Topic:
Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets

17121. Liberalization, Globalization, and Income Distribution

Author:
Giovanni Andrea Cornia
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Recent mainstream analyses of changes in income distribution over the post World War II period have concluded that income inequality within countries tends to be stable, that there is no strong association between growth and inequality and that, therefore, poverty is best reduced through growth-oriented, rather than distributive, policies.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Political Economy

17122. Wage Reform, Soft Budget Constraints and Competition

Author:
Jian Sun
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the Chinese economic reforms in 1978, there has been a series of effort to reform the labour compensation practice in state-owned enterprises to strengthen the link between pay and productivity. Despite the reforms, however, rapid increases in wage rates occurred in state-owned enterprises. Moreover, although state-owned enterprises have much lower productivity gains than non-state enterprises, they pay substantially higher wages and have faster wage growth.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

17123. The Asian Currency Crisis: Origins, Lessons and Future Outlook

Author:
Abdur Chowdhury
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
What started in the summer of 1997 as a regional economic and financial crisis in East and Southeast Asia had developed into a global financial crisis within the span of a year. This crisis followed the crisis in the European Monetary System in 1992–3 and the Mexican peso crisis in 1994–5. However, unlike the previous two crises, the scale and depth of the Asian crisis surprised everyone. One obvious reason for this is East and Southeast Asia's track record of economic success. Since the 1960s, no other group of countries in the world has produced more rapid economic growth or such a dramatic reduction in poverty. Given so many years of sustained economic performance the obvious question is: how could events in Asia unfold as they did?
Topic:
Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia

17124. The Weightless Economy in Economic Development

Author:
Danny Quah
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Can the increasing significance of knowledge-products in national income—the growing weightless economy—influence economic development? Those technologies reduce "distance" between consumers and knowledge production. This paper analyzes a model embodying such a reduction. The model shows how demand-side attributes—consumer attitudes on complex goods; training, education, and skills for consumption (rather than production)—can importantly affect patterns of economic growth and development. Evidence from the failed Industrial Revolution in 14th-century China illustrates the empirical relevance of the analysis.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China

17125. The Chechen Problem: Sources, Developments and Future Prospects

Author:
Alexandru Liono
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The political, economic and social situation in Chechnya is a matter of concern for all the analysts of the current environment in the North Caucasus. Every day brings about new developments in Chechnya, which can hardly be characterised as encouraging. The more recent events, which culminated with the intervention in Chechnya and the siege of Grozny by the Russian Federal troops in November – December 1999, have raised even more questions about the future of the Caucasus.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and North Caucasus

17126. Denmark and the Northern Dimension

Author:
Bertel Heurlin
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This country study consists of three parts. First some introductory observations aiming at placing the Northern dimension concept in a broader context. Secondly, a description of the Danish participation in Baltic sea- activities and programs. Thirdly, an overview of the official Danish position.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

17127. The International System of the 21st Century

Author:
Bertel Heurlin
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In 1969, 30 years ago, a large portion of the earth's population had to revise their conception of the world. Pictures of Earth as seen from the moon taken by American astronauts made a considerable impression. The pictures portrayed a very beautiful planet - shining, inviting, sunny, fertile, full of life and beauty. This was Spaceship Earth, a spaceship apparently characterised more by nature than by culture. The spaceship Earth appears hospitable and yet vulnerable. It faces space, communicating. It is a spaceship the population of which lives on the outside in stead of within.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation

17128. And Never the Twain Shall Meet ? The EU's Quest for Legitimacy and Enlargement

Author:
Lykke Friis and Anna Murphy
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The European Union in the 1990s is a contested, open-ended polity. It regulates almost as many policy-issues as nation-states and has been accepted by politicians, interest groups and many parts of the public as an appropriate framework for policy-making. Despite the increasing importance of the EU there is however no consensus about what the EU actually is, yet alone where it is heading. The ever-expanding agenda of integration in the 1990s has also led to considerable public scepticism towards the EU-project. Indeed, legitimacy crisis and democratic deficit have become the codewords in the literature and practice of European integration in the 1990s.
Topic:
Politics and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

17129. EU and Legitimacy - The Challenge of Compatibility: A Danish Case Study

Author:
Lykke Friis and Anna Murphy
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Since the difficulties of ratifying the Maastricht Treaty legitimacy has topped the EU's agenda. Departing from the dominating trend in the literature that the EU's legitimacy problems are largely due to the EU's inability to develop a common identity, which can compete or even replace national identities, this article shifts the focus to compatibility. The core legitimacy test is whether the EU and its member states – as a multidimensional governance system, in which nation states persist alongside supranational institutions – can develop identities, which are compatible. Based on this approach the article analyses the ratification debate on the Treaty of Amsterdam in one Member State, namely Denmark. Its core conclusion is that it is indeed important to abandon the traditional conceptualisation of EU legitimacy. As the Danish case shows legitimacy can be enhanced if member states are able to (re)construe the EU as being compatible with national identity.
Topic:
Nationalism and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

17130. Japanese Entrepreneurship: Can the Silicon Valley Model Be Applied to Japan?

Author:
Katsuhiro Nakagawa
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Since 1992, the Japanese economy has been utterly stagnant, with signs of weak performance at every turn. Since 1997, Japan's economy has experienced negative growth, a situation unprecedented in the postwar era. Most large Japanese corporations have engaged in extensive restructuring during this period, which has in turn contributed to 4.8 percent unemployment—higher than rates in the United States. Further, in 1998, the closure rate of small companies (3.8 percent) exceeded the start-up rate of new business ventures (3.7 percent).
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Asia

17131. Accessing Venture Capital in India

Author:
Rafiq Dossani
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
In the 1970s, IT exports from India began with “body-shopping,” also known as contract programming. In such contracts, the amount of code was specified in the contract and there was relatively little risk. Until 1991, this was the main form of IT exports, and it was per- formed exclusively by Indian firms. Foreign firms were deliberately excluded as a matter of government policy. It was a difficult business environment. Indian firms that were exporting bodies, as well as firms that operated only in the domestic market, found themselves operat- ing in a closed economy, featuring high tariffs on hardware imports and non-tariff barriers on software imports. Quite by accident, this situation led to a growth of skills that would be of great value to India a few years later. India's UNIX talents, now globally in demand due to the growth of the Internet, developed because the country's closed economy forced Indian computer makers to develop their own hardware and software design skills. Sridhar Mitta noted that, in 1983, the United States used an Intel 386 microprocessor as the base for a simple personal computer, whereas India employed the same microprocessor with the UNIX operating system to power mainframes that controlled large enterprises. India's closed environment also spurred the country's IT industry to develop advanced skills in system design, architecture, protocol stacks, compilers, device drivers, and boards.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, India, and Asia

17132. Assessing U.S. Bilateral Security Alliances in the Asia Pacific's "Southern Rim": Why the San Francisco System Endures

Author:
William T. Tow
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
At the turn of the century, the United States' postwar alliance network remains a key component of its international security policy. That policy is fundamentally based on maintaining military superiority over current and potential rivals in the Eurasian landmass.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Eurasia, Asia, and San Francisco

17133. Containment by Stealth: Chinese Views of and Policies toward America's Alliances with Japan and Korea after the Cold War

Author:
Yu Bin
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
At the height of the Cold War, the dominant Western theories of alliance building in interstate relations argued that alliances tend to be motivated more by an external need to confront a clearly defined common adversary than by the domestic attributes of alliance partners. The newly reinvigorated U.S.-Japan alliance, however, together with the newly expanded NATO, seems to depart from the conventional pattern by emphasizing shared democratic values and by maintaining a high degree of ambiguity regarding the goals and targets of the alliance. Although these new features of American-led military alliances provide an anchor in an other- wise highly fluid situation in the post–Cold War world, many Chinese foreign-and defense-policy analysts believe that U.S. alliances with Asian countries, particularly with Japan, pose a serious, long-term challenge, if not a threat, to China's national security, national unification, and modernization. The ambiguity of the revised U.S.-Japan security alliance means that it is at best searching for targets and at worst aiming at China.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, and Korea

17134. Catch-Up; Why Poor Countries Are Becoming Richer, Democratic, Increasingly Peaceable, and Sometimes More Dangerous

Author:
Henry S. Rowen
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
It is easy to be confused about the world's prospect. On the one hand, since the collapse of the Soviet Union and its empire, many millions of people have been freed from economic and political shackles that had long kept them under authoritarian rule and in poverty—or at least far poorer than they should be. On the other hand, several parts of the world are beset by political turmoil and conflicts, rapid population increases, and falling incomes.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Development, Emerging Markets, and Third World
Political Geography:
Soviet Union

17135. Crisis and Aftermath: The Prospects for Institutional Change in Japan

Author:
Rafiq Dossani
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Impelled in large part by the nearly decade-long stagnation of the Japanese economy, institutions in Japan are undergoing fundamental changes. When Professors Masahiko Aoki, of the Stanford University Department of Economics, and Henry Rowen, director of the Asia/Pacific Research Center, were talking about these changes, they realized that an international conference on the subject would be useful and informative. With funding from the Asia/ Pacific Research Center and the Institute for International Studies, a distinguished group of speakers, commentators, and participants was brought together for a one-day conference to look at institutional changes in three distinct sectors of Japanese society: the political system, the bureaucracy, and corporations.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Asia

17136. Nesting the Alliances in the Emerging Context of Asia-Pacific Multilateral Processes: A U.S. Perspective

Author:
Douglas Paal
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
As Americans consider their options for protecting and advancing their interests in Asia in the twenty-first century, it is natural that there will be wide-ranging views and vigorous debate. Recent events such as the 1996 Taiwan crisis, the Asian economic meltdown in 1997, and the exchange of state visits by presidents Bill Clinton and Jiang Zemin in 1997 and 1998 have intensified, then moderated and redirected, much of the debate over a very short span of time. Two years ago, for example, the Chinese were worrying aloud about American efforts to “encircle” China. Now they talk about “building a constructive strategic partnership with the U.S.” Despite these ups and downs, however, the fundamental choices for the United States have remained largely the same.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Taiwan, and Asia

17137. When Realism and Liberalism Coincide: Russian Views of U.S. Alliances in Asia

Author:
Andrew C. Kuchins and Alexei V. Zagorsky
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Contemporary discussions of virtually any aspect of Russian foreign and security policy must take as their point of departure the extraordinarily weakened condition of the Russian Federation. There is no comparable case of such a rapid and dramatic decline in the status of a great power during peacetime in modern history. The Russian economy has been in a virtual free fall for most of the 1990s. The World Bank estimated the Russian GNP in 1997, using fixed exchange rates not adjusted for purchasing power parity, at $403.5 billion, making Russia the twelfth-largest economy in the world, just ahead of the Netherlands and just behind South Korea. Russian per capita GNP of $2,740 ranked fifty-first in the world and was in the category of “low middle” income countries. In 1997 the Russian GNP was about 5 percent of that of the United States, 8 percent adjusted for purchasing power parity. The figures for 1998 will be even starker given the devaluation of the ruble to approximately 30 percent of its 1997 value and continuing overall economic decline. A back-of-the-envelope calculation would have Russian GNP at the end of 1998 at no more than $120 billion and per capita GNP at less than $1,000.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Asia, South Korea, and Netherlands

17138. Adjusting America's Two Alliances in East Asia: A Japanese View

Author:
Takashi Inoguchi
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The alliances of the United States in East Asia are in a process of profound change (Okimoto 1998). The treaties with Japan and Korea are undergoing distinctive metamorphoses. These changes are the result of a number of forces that unfolded over the decades of the twentieth century, most notably the Cold War, globalization, and democratization (Inoguchi 1993, 1995; and Archibugi, Held, and Koehler 1996).
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, America, East Asia, and Asia

17139. Changing Relations between Party, Military, and Government in North Korea and Their Impact on Policy Direction

Author:
Jinwook Choi
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
North Korea has recently exhibited some noteworthy changes. In September 1998 it amended its constitution to change the power structure and introduced a number of progressive clauses. It also began to use the slogan “A Strong and Prosperous Nation,” which emphasizes economic prosperity as well as political, ideological, and military strength.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Latin America

17140. China and the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Korea Alliances in a Changing Northeast Asia

Author:
Chu Shulong
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The American security alliances with Japan and South Korea have been a major concern of China's foreign and defense policies. China's position toward the alliances is determined by its foreign policy and security theories, doctrines, and principles; by its approach to a regional security mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region; by its bilateral relations with countries in Northeast Asia; and by incidental issues such as territorial disputes in Asia in which it is involved.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea

17141. New Estimates of the United States - China Trade Balances

Author:
Lawrence J. Lau and K.C. Fung
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The United States and China have vastly different official estimates of the bilateral trade imbalance. The U.S. figures show that the United States had a merchandise trade deficit of US$57 billion vis-à-vis China in 1998 whereas the Chinese figures show that China had a merchandise trade surplus of only US$21 billion vis-à-vis the United States. There is a difference of US$36 billion. Which set of figures is right?
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

17142. Seoul Domestic Policy and the Korean-American Alliance

Author:
B.C. Koh
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
While domestic politics helps to shape foreign policy, the two do not necessarily covary. That is to say, fundamental change in the former may not always trigger corresponding change in the latter. This is especially true of an alliance relationship, for a shared perception of an external threat that helps to sustain such a relationship is frequently unaffected by domestic political change.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, America, Asia, and Korea

17143. Japan-ROK Security Relations: An American Perspective

Author:
Michael J. Green
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This monograph explores contemporary Japan-ROK security relations from the perspective of U.S. strategic interests in Asia. Japan and the Republic of Korea have been aligned but not allied since the beginning of the Cold War, and the United States has long been frustrated in its desire to strengthen the Japan-ROK leg of its network of bilateral alliances in Asia. The United States abandoned the goal of encouraging a formal U.S.-Japan-ROK alliance early on in the Cold War, and in the current strategic environment a trilateral alliance would probably be counterproductive. At the same time, however, the fluidity of East Asian security relations today has heightened the dangers of leaving the Japan-ROK security relationship in an ambiguous state. Closer Japan-ROK security cooperation will enhance U.S. efforts to maintain forward presence, manage diplomacy and potential crises on the Korean Peninsula, and integrate China as a cooperative partner in the region. In contrast, distant Japan-ROK relations would complicate all of these U.S. objectives. Hostile Japan-ROK relations, particularly in the context of Korean reunification, would have a spillover effect on Sino-U.S. relations and could return the region to the great-power rivalry of the last century.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea

17144. The Korean-American Alliance and the "Rise of China": A Preliminary Assessment of Perceptual Changes and Strategic Choices

Author:
Jae Ho Chung
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Does history repeat itself? It appears so for Korea as an unfortunate geopolitical pawn of its stronger neighbors for the last century or so. History does not seem to repeat in quite the same way, however. As Chinese diplomat Huang Zunxian recommended in 1880 that Chosun (Korea's official designation during the Yi Dynasty) “side with the Qing” ( qinzhong ) while relegating the relative importance of Japan and the United States to the levels of “aligning and connecting” ( jieri and lianmei ), respectively, Korea remained for the most part the most loyal subsystem of the Sinic world order, thereby missing out on opportunities for self-strengthening and realignment and eventually becoming a Japanese colony. More than a hundred years later, the Republic of Korea (hereafter Korea) may now be about to confront a similar dilemma, but this time with a reversed order of preferences. That is to say, the rise of China, with which Korea has already accomplished diplomatic normalization, may gradually force the Seoul government to reconfigure its Cold War–based strategic thinking and reassess its half-century alliance relationship with the United States.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Korea

17145. Asian Alliances and American Politics

Author:
Michael H. Armacost
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The domestic politics of our Asian alliances is like the story of the dog that didn't bark. Though our defense ties with Japan and Korea were forged in the Cold War, nearly ten years after the Berlin Wall came down, few voices are being raised to amend, let alone terminate, either the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with Japan or the U.S.-Korea Mutual Defense Treaty. Although large numbers of U.S. troops remain in both countries, congressional criticisms of allied “free riding” are rarely heard. Our alliances with Japan and Korea provoke little discernible opposition from the Congress, the press, or the general public. Polling data suggests that public support for the alliances and for forward deployments in both countries remains high. And no prominent leaders of the Congress are threatening to link security concerns to outstanding economic issues with the Japanese or South Koreans—a tactic frequently utilized a decade ago.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, and Korea

17146. Show of Force: The PLA and the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis

Author:
Andrew Scobell
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
China conducted a series of military exercises and missile tests in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait between July 1995 and March 1996. On July 18, 1995, Beijing announced that missile tests would be conducted targeting an area some 90 miles off the coast of northern Taiwan. Then, on three consecutive days, July 21, 22, and 23, a total of six DF-15 missiles were launched from sites in Fujian province—two per day. The following month, after a five-day advance warning, PLA naval vessels and aircraft conducted ten days of live-fire tests off the coast of Fujian. Further military exercises were conducted in mid-November to the south of the Strait, including joint operations involving air, land, and naval arms of the PLA. On March 5, 1996, Beijing announced it would soon begin another round of missile tests. This time they were to be targeted at seas less than fifty miles from Taiwan's busiest ports. On March 8, three DF-15 missiles were fired from bases in Fujian. Five days later, another DF-15 missile was launched. Finally, also after advanced warning, live-fire tests and war games were conducted off the coast of Fujian to the north of the Strait and to the south of the Strait between March 12 and March 25. The maneuvers included amphibious landing exercises and aerial bombing. Some forty naval vessels, two hundred and sixty aircraft, and an estimated 150,000 troops participated.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia

17147. The Internet and Global Telecommunications: Exploring the Boundaries of International Coordination

Author:
Michael J. Kleeman
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The Internet is a driving force in global communications and commerce; as such, issues related to its governance and growth have broad implications that reach beyond those of traditional telecommunications services or networks. Unlike prior communications networks that carried primarily voice traffic, the Internet collects and distributes content and facilitates global and local/national commerce— which raises two types of questions: What purposes does the network serve for users? What barriers prevent or constrain such use?
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

17148. Toward Sustainable Competition in Global Telecommunications: From Principle to Practice

Author:
William J. Drake
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Many observers consider 1998 to be a watershed year in the evolution of the global telecommunications industry. This view is based on the fact that two major changes in the international policy landscape have begun to clear away many longstanding barriers to competition in global networks and services.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

17149. Media Madness: The Revolution So Far

Author:
David Bollier and Max Frankel
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Henry, for that generous introduction. I am proud to bear the title of Catto Fellow and if I were allowed to recite your biography as you have recited mine, you would know the source of my great pride. But like Harry Evans in a similar recent situation, (and now also his wife, Tina Brown), I am reminded of the New Yorker cartoon showing a partygoer being introduced at a cocktail party while enduring the urgent plea of a spouse: “Tell them who you WERE, dear. Tell them who you WERE!” I have to emphasize who I once was not only because I have retired from executive duties but also because the Revolution that I have come to discuss often regards me as passé, out of date, an expiring person of print—you know, that dying industry. That may be so. But the revolutionary “new” media are exhausting themselves parading their newness while actually betraying highly familiar symptoms of a very old media disease. We are all mad: just not newly mad.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and New York

17150. The Global Wave of Entrepreneurialism: Harnessing the Synergies of Personal Initiative, Digital Technologies, and Global Commerce

Author:
David Bollier
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Future historians may call this period the entrepreneurial age. Rarely has such an explosion of new business ventures, technological innovation, and cultural experimentation swept across diverse cultures of the globe simultaneously. Government leaders in Beijing and Singapore, Warsaw and Caracas, Moscow and London are looking to business mavericks to energize their economies. Multinational companies are eager to instill entrepreneurial values within their workforces to boost their competitiveness. On the periphery of such power centers, meanwhile, entrepreneurs large and small are remaking entire sectors of the economy and creating high-tech boomtowns in San Jose, California; Bangalore, India; Cambridge, England; Austin, Texas; and many other places.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, India, London, California, Moscow, England, Singapore, Bangalore, Austin, and Texas

17151. Information Literacy: Advancing Opportunities for Learning in the Digital Age

Author:
Richard P. Adler
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The foregoing paraphrase of Dickens was how one participant in the Aspen Institute's 1998 Forum on Communications and Society (FOCAS) summed up the current state and impact of the Internet. On one hand, the Internet has provided more people with more convenient access to more information in a shorter period of time than any other medium in history. It has given rise to an enormous burst of entrepreneurial activity that has led to the creation of an entire new industry in just a few years. Electronic commerce already is a multibillion dollar enterprise and will become even more important in the near future.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

17152. Iraq's Transition: On a Knife Edge

Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The situation in Iraq is more precarious than at any time since the April 2003 ouster of the Baathist regime, largely reflecting the Coalition's inability to establish a legitimate and representative political transition process. The broad plan sketched out by UN Special Adviser Lakhdar Brahimi, the apparent willingness of the U.S. to delegate at least some political responsibility to the UN and the decision to loosen the de-Baathification decree are all steps in the right direction. But critical questions remain both unanswered and, in some cases, unasked.
Topic:
Demographics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Eastern Europe, and United Nations

17153. Rule of Law in Public Administration: Confusion and Discrimination in a Post-Communist Bureaucracy

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
To date, little attention has been paid to the role public administration plays in enforcing or violating the human rights and civil liberties of Bosnia and Herzegovina's citizens. Instead, much effort is concentrated on reforming the court system. Yet, the justice system in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) comprises far more than the court system. It also consists of "administrative justice," where small-scale rulings by seemingly minor municipal and cantonal officials in a variety of public administrative organs, exercise a huge influence on the lives and legal rights of ordinary citizens. Many of these rulings prevent citizens from exercising their legal rights and gaining access to due process of law.</p
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

17154. Trepca: Making Sense of the Labyrinth

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The enterprise known as Trepca is a sprawling conglomerate of some 40 mines and factories, located mostly in Kosovo but also in other locations in Serbia and Montenegro. Its activities include chemical processing and production of goods as varied as batteries and paint. But the heart of its operations, and the source of most of its raw material, is the vast mining complex to the east of Mitrovicë/a in the north of Kosovo, famous since Roman times. This report examines the current position of the mines, together with the associated smelting complex at nearby Zvecan.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro

17155. Starting from Scratch in Kosovo: The Honeymoon Is Over

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After an unprecedented, multilateral military intervention in Kosovo succeeded in expelling Serb forces and enabling the return home of more than a million displaced persons, the international community embarked on the ambitious, long-term project of securing, rebuilding, and establishing the rule of law in Kosovo, while setting the territory on the path to self-governance. Visionary promises were made to the people of Kosovo, and careful planning was undertaken at NATO and United Nations headquarters and in many European capitals. But six months into the mission, the international community has so far not been able to deliver on its promises. No Kosovars of any ethnicity feel secure, tens of thousands of people remain without adequate shelter as winter sets in, civil registration has yet to get underway, there is as yet no agreed-upon, functional system of justice, and criminals – including suspected war criminals – continue to operate with effective impunity.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

17156. Is Dayton Failing?: Bosnia Four Years After the Peace Agreement

Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In anticipation of the fourth anniversary on 21 November 1999 of the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, this report presents a detailed analysis of the agreement and the future of the Bosnian peace process. The report assesses efforts to implement the agreement annex by annex, identifying obstacles to continued progress and setting out key choices facing international policymakers.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe

17157. Waiting For UNMIK: Local Administration in Kosovo

Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
More than four months have passed since the start of the deployment of the United Nations in Kosovo. While first efforts were concentrated on the creation of a secure environment and the distribution of humanitarian aid, Civil Administration, the pillar of UNMIK which plays the role of a government, has been slow in reaching the local level.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

17158. Macedonia: Gearing up for Presidential Elections

Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 31 October and 14 November 1999, Macedonian citizens will go to the polls to elect a successor to 82-year-old President Kiro Gligorov, who is stepping down after two terms in office.
Topic:
Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Macedonia

17159. Transforming Serbia: the Key to Long Term Stability

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The NATO intervention in Serbia and the indictment of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia have created openings within Serbian society and exposed cleavages within the regime that should be rapidly exploited to hasten Milosevic's departure and bring about genuine political change. The loss of Kosovo, the destruction resulting from the bombing, and the refusal of the international community to rebuild Serbia until Milosevic is out of power have occasioned widespread despair among Serbs who have come to view their country's future under its present leadership as a dead end.
Topic:
NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

17160. Who's Who in Kosovo

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This paper offers a brief guide to the leading indigenous political organisations and personalities in Kosovo/Kosova. The authority of the international civil and military presence in Kosovo rests on UN Security Council Resolution 1244 of 10 June 1999. Under international law no other authority enjoys any legitimacy until the UN administration grants it.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

17161. Montenegro Briefing: Calm Before the Storm

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Just under a year ago a nervous Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic warned the world that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic was preparing to trigger a new Balkan war by launching a campaign of violence against the tiny republic of Montenegro. Djukanovic was right about Milosevic's intent, but wrong about the target. In March of this year, the dictator struck against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo and unleashed the barbarous Operation Horseshoe.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, Albania, and Montenegro

17162. Preventing Minority Return in Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Anatomy of Hate and Fear

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 1999 action plan of the Reconstruction and Return Task Force (RRTF) represents the most determined effort yet to implement a policy of mass minority return in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the signs at mid-season are that the results for 1999 will once again be disappointing.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and War
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

17163. Rule Over Law: Obstacles to the Development of an Independent Judiciary in BIH

Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
ICG, with the support of the European Commission, has established a project to promote justice in Bosnia and Herzegovina. With the assistance of 8 partner organisations based all over BiH, ICG will monitor individual cases and general trends to highlight and promote the development of a judicial system in BiH up to the standards of a modern, European judiciary. This first, introductory report examines the factors preventing the development of an independent judiciary, and outlines steps necessary to promote judicial independence.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

17164. Republika Srpska in The Post-Kosovo Era: Collateral Damage and Transformation

Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Repercussions from Kosovo continue to shake Republika Srpska (RS), and may prove a catalyst for further transformation and reform. The war's collateral damage included severance of trade ties with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY); a dramatic rise in unemployment; a sharp drop in production and state revenues; and a tide of Serbian refugees from FRY into RS.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

17165. Back To The Future: Milosevic Prepares for Life After Kosovo

Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 28 June 1989, Slobodan Milosevic stood on the site of the ancient Serb battleground of Kosovo Polje and delivered the speech that was to propel him to prominence and the leadership of. Ten years on, Milosevic remains firmly entrenched in power. He has survived three Balkan wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, economic sanctions, 78 days of NATO air strikes, and an indictment on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, and Croatia

17166. The New Kosovo Protectorate

Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The ICG Balkans Report N°66, "Kosovo: Let's Learn from Bosnia", of 17 May 1999 looked at how experience in Bosnia could be useful in Kosovo, and also at the extent to which the Rambouillet agreement of 23 February 1999 resembled the Dayton agreement of 21 November 1995.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

17167. Macedonia: Towards Destabilisation? The Kosovo crisis takes its toll on Macedonia

Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since NATO bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began on 24 March 1999, Macedonia has been in an extremely vulnerable frontline position, facing an unmanageable influx of refugees from Kosovo, the prospect of economic collapse and volatile domestic interethnic relations.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Macedonia

17168. Kosovo: Let's Learn from Bosnia

Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After almost three and a half years working in Bosnia to implement the Dayton Peace Agreement, the international community will soon face the prospect of establishing a presence in Kosovo. The model proposed at Rambouillet was very similar to that set up at Dayton, but the situation now is very different. This report examines the international effort in Bosnia to see whether lessons can be drawn for Kosovo and other possible future international administrations.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

17169. Milosevic's Aims in War and Diplomacy

Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The limits of the West's resolve to enforce a solution to the crisis in the Balkans were freshly exposed last week at a press briefing by U.S. President Bill Clinton. Speaking to reporters on 6 May 1999, Clinton admitted that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic might well survive the current crisis and remain in power in Belgrade as long as he accepted the West's terms for a settlement in Kosovo and permitted refugees to return home. He also made clear that a NATO invasion of Yugoslavia from the north, the one option open to the West that would facilitate the forcible removal of the Milosevic regime and with it the greatest single source of instability in the Balkans, was something "our (NATO's) goals never entailed".
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

17170. Why Will No One Invest In Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The donor countries hoped the governments of Bosnia and Herzegovina would use the promised $ 5.1 Billion post-war reconstruction aid to undertake the structural changes necessary to transition from communism to capitalism. As donor-aid diminished, private investment would replace it, stimulated by structural reforms. Unfortunately, this has not been the case. Indeed, interviews with Bosnian and foreign businessmen show a common reluctance to invest in BiH.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

17171. War in The Balkans: Consequences of the Kosovo Conflict and Future Options for Kosovo and the Region

Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
NATO's strategy in the war with Yugoslavia over Kosovo isn't working. As the Alliance's bombing campaign enters its fourth week, it is Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic who is still winning the political game.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

17172. Republika Srpska - Poplasen, Brcko and Kosovo: Three Crises and Out?

Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The early part of 1999 has been turbulent for Republika Srpska. Political life has been unsettled by three separate and hardly-related crises: the decision of the High Representative to remove from office the RS President Nikola Poplasen; the decision of International Arbitrator Roberts Owen to give the municipality of Brcko neither to RS nor to the Federation but to both as a condominium; and the NATO air-strikes on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY).
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

17173. Macedonia Update: Challenges and Choices for the New Government

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The new Macedonian government marked its first hundred days in office in early March. Formed by the Macedonian Internal Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), the Democratic Alternative (DA), and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) after the last parliamentary elections in October and November 1998, the government is headed by VMRO- DPMNE Chairman Ljubco Georgievski and has a comfortable majority of 73 out of 120 seats in the current parliament.
Topic:
Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

17174. Unifying The Kosovar Factions: The Way Forward

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Kosovo peace talks, held at Rambouillet (France) under the auspices of the sixnation Contact Group, have been suspended until 15 March 1999 after a provisional agreement was reached on granting substantial autonomy for Kosovo. However, neither the Kosovo Albanians nor Serbian delegates have yet signed the draft peace accord, which calls for a NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, and in which the "final status" issue has been deliberately fudged. The immense complexities of the Kosovo question were dramatically illustrated at Rambouillet by the last-minute refusal of the Albanian delegation to sign the accord, due to pressure from a hardline faction of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) which refused to attend the talks.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

17175. Kosovo: The Road To Peace Critical Implementation Issues And a "Who's Who" of Key Players

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While last spring saw conflict erupt in Kosovo's central Drenica region when Serbian security forces attacked and killed residents of the villages of Prekaz and Likoshan, this spring brings the possibility of peace. The proposed deployment of a 28,000-strong international force for Kosovo will dramatically and immediately halt the sporadic low-intensity battles between Serbian security forces and ethnic Albanian rebels that have displaced 300,000 people. This peace will allow refugees to return to their homes, and provide the day-to-day sense of security on the ground that will enable Kosovo's transition to self-government.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

17176. Sidelining Slobodan: Getting rid of Europe's last dictator

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With just over two years to run before the end of his term as Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milosevic remains entrenched in power in Belgrade. The Yugoslav constitution currently prevents the President from running for re-election in 2001, but while Milosevic may leave the presidency he shows no sign of forfeiting control and is in the process of purging both the army and secret police of all opposition. He also retains some residual influence over such cultural institutions as the Orthodox Church. Individuals who oppose his views and who are potential political opponents are invariably intimidated, often through brute force. Political party rivals are both attacked in the state and pro-regime press and also courted with the prospect of sharing power. The latest to succumb to that temptation has been Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Yugoslavia

17177. Breaking The Mould: Electoral Reform In Bosnia And Herzegovina

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Electoral reform is on the agenda this year in Bosnia and Herzegovina. For too long the country has been ruled by leaders who draw support from only one of the three main ethnic groups. These leaders have been unable to co-operate on even the simplest matters, inhibiting the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) and forcing the international community to micromanage the country. Electoral reform offers one promising way to allow Bosnians to choose less confrontational leaders, and so start to accept responsibility for their own future.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

17178. Brcko: A Comprehensive Solution

Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Arbitral Tribunal on Brcko meets this month, and may or may not this time make its final decision, after postponements in 1997 and 1998. An award to either the Federation or Republika Srpska would provoke an extreme reaction: ICG advocates that a final decision should be made now, and that Brcko municipality should be reunited and made an autonomous district under the constitutional jurisdiction of the central government of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

17179. Macedonia:"New Faces In Skopje"

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The recent parliamentary elections and the change of government in Macedonia in many respects are a landmark in the country's development. The smooth transition of power from one political camp to another and the fact that the "radicals" from both major ethnic groups rather than the more moderate parties form the new government are significant in themselves. If the new government manages to solve Macedonia's problems, it might also have repercussions throughout the region. This report, prepared by ICG's field analyst in Skopje, looks back and draws lessons from the elections and the formation of the new government, looks ahead at the key policy changes facing the new administration, and assesses the capacity of the ruling coalition to meet those challenges.
Topic:
Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

17180. The State Of Albania

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Premier Pandeli Majko's new coalition government is slowly consolidating its hold over the administration, though the overall power of the government remains weak after the country was rocked in September by the worst political violence since the uprising of March 1997. Within the cabinet the deputy premier Ilir Meta has emerged as the key power in most decision-making and policy implementation. The new government consists of representatives of the Socialist Party (PS), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Union of Human Rights Party (PBDNj - this party represents the ethnic Greek minority), Democratic Alliance (AD), and the small Agrarian Party (AP). The largest opposition grouping the Democratic Party (DP), led by former president Sali Berisha, does not recognise the legitimacy of the Socialist-led government, is continuing its boycott of parliament and staging street rallies to push for early elections.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Albania

17181. Too Little Too Late: Implementation of the Sarajevo Declaration

Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sarajevo's Bosniac authorities were given the opportunity to demonstrate their much-vaunted commitment to multi-ethnicity when, on 3 February 1998, representatives of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the Federation of Bosnia Herzegovina (Federation), Sarajevo Canton and the international community adopted the Sarajevo Declaration. The Declaration stressed the importance of the Bosnian capital “as a model of coexistence and tolerance for the rest of the country” and made it clear that: “The international community will condition continuation of assistance for Sarajevo on fulfilment of the benchmarks set out in this Declaration and on adequate progress toward meeting the 1998 goal of at least 20,000 minority returns.”
Topic:
Demographics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

17182. Regional Burden-Sharing for Humanitarian Action

Author:
David O'Brien
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The emergence of an international humanitarian system, the codification of international humanitarian law and the corresponding creation of supportive organizations, is arguably one of the most welcomed forms of multilateralism in the 20th century. At the close of this century, billions of dollars are raised annually by the UN system to alleviate the suffering caused by natural disasters and war but this financial support is declining and increasingly unable to meet humanitarian needs. This declining resource base, along with a search to diversify sources of funding and the recognition that some emergencies receive adequate attention while others do not, raises question for the need for new burden-sharing arrangements.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, International Organization, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa

17183. Underwriting Humanitarian Assistance

Author:
Shepard Forman
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The hopes and aspirations for international cooperation that marked the end of the Cold War had their most exuberant expression in the industrialized countries' ambitious approach to humanitarian intervention. Confronted with an unprecedented number of internal conflicts and media images of mass suffering, the Security Council charged the United Nations with more than a dozen new missions between 1987 and 1996. Conceived largely as peacekeeping operations, these interventions nonetheless took on the requirements and drama of humanitarian assistance as genocide, mass migrations and starvation took their toll on millions of people.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Nations

17184. The Globalization of Services: What Has Happened? What Are the Implications?

Author:
Gary Hufbauer and Tony Warren
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Globalization has affected all facets of the world economy. This includes services, which in most economies are the single largest contributor to economic growth and employment. However, despite its importance to national output, the impact of globalization on services is only recently receiving the attention of researchers and policy-makers.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

17185. Hazards and Precautions: Tales of International Finance

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Erika Wada
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In the wake of financial crises in Mexico (1994-95), Asia (1997-98), Russia (1998) and Brazil (1998-99), respected observers have questioned the benefits of wide-open international capital markets (Bhagwati, 1998; Krugman, 1998; Rodrik, 1998; Eichengreen, 1999). Our purpose is to identify true hazards and suggest appropriate precautions.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Asia, Brazil, and Mexico

17186. Does Talk Matter After All? Inflation Targeting And Central Bank Behavior

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Since 1990, a number of countries have adopted inflation targeting as their declared monetary strategy. Interpretations of the significance of this movement, however, have differed widely. To some, inflation targeting mandates the single-minded, rule-like pursuit of price stability without regard for other policy objectives; to others, inflation targeting represents nothing more than the latest version of cheap talk by central banks unable to sustain monetary commitments. Advocates of inflation targeting, including the adopting central banks themselves, have expressed the view that the transparency and communication of the inflation targeting framework grant the central bank greater short-run flexibility in pursuit of its long-run inflation goal.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

17187. Modeling Korean Unification

Author:
Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Tao Wang
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
For North Korea, product market integration would generate large welfare gains, sufficient to end the famine. Additional gains could be had through military demobilization. For the South, the impact of product market integration would be trivial, but the impact of factor market integration would be considerable, affecting the composition of output, distribution of income, and rate of growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and Korea

17188. Sovereign Liquidity Crisis: The Strategic Case For A Payments Standstill

Author:
Marcus Miller and Lei Zhang
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Is sovereign borrowing so different from corporate debt that there is no need for bankruptcy-style procedures to protect debtors? With the waiver of immunity, sovereign debtors who already face severe disruption from short-term creditors grabbing their currency reserves are also exposed to litigious creditors trying to seize what assets they can in a 'race of the vultures'.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

17189. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise

Author:
Philip Manow
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped there-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

17190. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise

Author:
Philip Manow
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped the re-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

17191. Environmental Quality and Regional Conflict

Author:
Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Allen Hammond, David A. Hamburg, Donald Kennedy, John D. Steinbruner, and Timothy E. Wirth
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict
Abstract:
This Web cast highlights issues raised by Donald Kennedy, president emeritus and Bing Professor of Environmental Science of Stanford University, in his newly released monograph Environmental Quality and Regional Conflict. David Hamburg, president emeritus of the Carnegie Corporation and Tim Wirth, president of the United Nations Foundation, will give introductory remarks. In addition to Kennedy, presenters include John Steinbruner, senior fellow at The Brookings Institution; Jessica Mathews, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Allen Hammond, director of strategic analysis at the World Resources Institute
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Environment, Peace Studies, and Science and Technology

17192. From Civil War to Civil Society: The Transition from War to Peace in Guatemala and Liberia

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Freed American slaves began to settle what is currently known as Liberia in the 1820s, often in the face of hostility from the local inhabitants. By 1847, the ex-slaves and their descendants had declared a republic and began a 150 year period of Americo-Liberian elite rule based on domination and exploitation of the indigenous population. In 1980, Americo-Liberian rule ended with a military coup staged by Samuel Doe. The ensuing regime, violently suppressed any form of opposition for the next ten years, creating deadly ethnic cleavages.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and Government
Political Geography:
Central America, Liberia, and Guatemala

17193. Developing a Methodology for Conflict Prevention: The Case of Estonia

Author:
Joyce Neu and Vamik Volkan
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
In April 1994, with Russian troops still stationed in Estonia, The Carter Center's Conflict Resolution Program (CRP) joined with International Negotiation Network (INN) members Vamik Volkan of the University of Virginia's Center for the Study of Mind and Human Interaction (CSMHI) and Harold Saunders of the Kettering Foundation to implement a set of workshops. The three-year series aimed to reduce tensions on two fronts: between Russia and Estonia and between Russians in Estonia and Estonians.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Estonia

17194. Transparency Project

Author:
Jennifer McCoy and Shelley McConnell
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Carter Center's Americas Program and its Council of Presidents and Prime Ministers of the Americas have initiated a multiyear project to work with governments and civil society to develop monitoring mechanisms to help combat corruption in government transactions and serve as a model for the rest of the world. Greater "transparency" in government-business interactions can improve investor confidence, spur economic growth, provide better public services to the population, and increase public confidence in democratic institutions. At a high-level conference May 4-5, 1999, leaders from across the hemisphere came to The Carter Center to evaluate specific anti-corruption efforts and seek commitments from other governments to implement similar strategies in their own countries. In preparation for that conference, The Carter Center partnered with three countries—Ecuador, Jamaica, and Costa Rica—to develop and assess specific anti-corruption tools.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Human Rights, and Migration
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

17195. The Geopolitics of Energy Development in the Caspian Region: Regional Cooperation or Conflict?

Author:
Vadim Rubin
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The Caspian Basin has emerged in recent years as a major focus of international affairs for a combination of political, economic, and geostrategic reasons. In the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union's dissolution in the early 1990s the region's newly independent states were overshadowed by Russia and attracted little Western and U.S. attention. But over the past several years this region has attracted growing attention from Western policymakers and scholars, as well as the media and the private sector. One of the main reasons for this new focus on the Caspian is its sizable energy reserves. In addition to its potential as a significant oil producer, however, it is also the Caspian's geostrategic location, its diverse mix of ethnic groups, and its unsettled intrastate and interstate conflicts that make it both an enticing and challenging region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Development, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Caspian Sea

17196. The Cox Committee Report: An Assessment

Author:
Michael M. May, Alastair Iain Johnston, W.K.H. Panofsky, Marco Di Capua, and Lewis R. Franklin
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The Cox Commission of the U.S. Congress was established in June 1998 to investigate concerns over Chinese acquisition of sensitive U.S. missile and space technology in connection with the launching of U.S. civilian satellites using Chinese launchers on Chinese territory. The investigations were broadened in October 1998 to include alleged security problems and possible espionage at the U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories. Some conclusions were released in January 1999 by the White House together with the administration's response. The full declassified (redacted) version of the report of the Cox Commission was released on May 25, 1999.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

17197. The U.S. Military and Civil Infrastructure Protection: Restrictions and Discretion under the Posse Comitatus Act

Author:
Gregory D. Grove
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
This article sets out the constraints of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 (the “Act”), which generally prohibits active enforcement of civilian laws by the military, and describes the discretion of the military commander to assist civilian law enforcement in protecting America's information infrastructure against computer—assisted attack. A primary purpose of this article is to help legal advisors to commanders and DoD civilian officials better understand the boundaries of command discretion so that commanders and officials can feel free to exercise proper command discretion to assist law enforcement according to military interests and their professional and personal ethics and ideals. Another primary purpose of the article is to appraise Congress of the Act, its prohibitions, and its application to assist in framing the policy debate about how to constrain or expand the discretion of commanders and other officials to most productively serve the American public.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

17198. The Nonproliferation Regime under Siege

Author:
George Bunn
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The nuclear nonproliferation regime was challenged in 1998 by nuclear-weapon tests in India and Pakistan, by medium-range missile tests in those countries and in Iran and North Korea, by Iraq's defiance of UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to complete its disclosure of efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and by the combination of “loose nukes” and economic collapse in Russia. Additional threats to the regime's vitality came in 1999 from the erosion of American relations with both China and Russia that resulted from NATO's 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia—with additional harm to relations with China resulting from U.S. accusations of Chinese nuclear espionage and Taiwan's announcement that it was a state separate from China despite its earlier acceptance of a U.S.-Chinese “one China” agreement. Major threats to the regime also came from the continued stalemate on arms-control treaties in the Russian Duma and the U.S. Senate, from a change in U.S. policy to favor building a national defense against missile attack, and from a Russian decision to develop a new generation of small tactical nuclear weapons for defense against conventional attack.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Korea

17199. Commercialization of Russian Technology in Cooperation with American Companies

Author:
David Bernstein
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The Soviet Union placed a high priority on science and technology and built a huge assembly of research institutes, educational programs, design bureaus, and production enterprises embodying some measure of science and/or technology. This assembly concentrated over—whelmingly on military applications. Approximately three—quarters of this complex was located in Russia, but essential elements of many programs were located in other republics. The nature, structure, size, and operation of this military—industrial complex (MIC) as well as its decline and change during the Gorbachev and post—Soviet periods of economic transition have been documented in the literature.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

17200. Climate Change and the Transformation of World Energy Supply

Author:
Steve Fetter
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
In December 1997, world attention turned to Kyoto, Japan, where parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) negotiated a protocol to reduce the greenhouse-gas emissions of the industrialized countries by 5 percent below 1990 levels over the next ten to fifteen years. The agreement has been attacked from both sides. Environmental groups assert that much deeper reductions are urgently needed. Opponents claim that the proposed reductions are either unnecessary or premature, would curtail economic growth, or would be unfair or ineffective without similar commitments by developing countries.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Japan