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162. The Reform of European Economic Governance : Towards a Sustainable Monetary Union?
- Author:
- Stijn Verhelst
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The euro is a rather unusual currency as it is shared by a union of largely independent states. This results in a single supranational monetary union, while most 'economic' matters are decided on a national level. A key challenge in such a system is to ensure that the different levels of decision-making do not undermine the advantages of the common currency. For this reason, the European monetary union has been buttressed by economic integration, resulting in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
163. Renewed Financial Supervision in Europe – Final or transitory?
- Author:
- Stijn Verhelst
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- In order to obtain financial sector stability, adequate financial regulation and supervision are paramount. Despite their crucial role, both failed to prevent or at least mitigate the financial crisis. While financial regulation strives to impose a set of rules that ensure a safe and resilient financial sector, it has proven to contain too many gaps and loopholes.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
164. Global fiscal consolidation
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The build up in government debt in response to the 'great recession' has raised a number of policy dilemmas for individual countries as well as the world as a whole. Where the government fiscal stimulus was seen as necessary to restore confidence to markets and stimulate deteriorating economies in the aftermath of the 'great recession' by 2010 the massive fiscal stimulus programs and associated run-up in debt had, for many economies, become a confidence sapping exercise. This need for a change of fiscal policy stance has fuelled another debate that has two related aspects. One is the impact of fiscal consolidation on economies that are tightening and the flow-on effects to the world economy. The other debate is how much tightening there should be and how quickly.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Australia/Pacific
165. Housing Policy in the U.S.: The Evolving Sub-national Role
- Author:
- Robert M. Buckley and Alex F. Schwartz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This paper provides a general overview of U.S. housing policy, with emphasis on state and local programs. Despite the focus on local programs we also discuss the broader national policy environment. This broader context is necessary because national policies play a crucial role in shaping the country's housing markets. We briefly trace out some of the key features of the housing market, highlighting tenure distributions, housing conditions and costs. Particular emphasis is given to the role of increasing housing costs and the housing opportunities of the poor. The paper also describes: (1) the nation's housing finance and tax systems, focusing on the different ways the government uses the tax code to subsidize homeowners and renters; and (2) state and local government programs, often implemented in the close collaboration of nonprofit organizations. A final section provides a brief overview of the strengths and weaknesses of U.S. housing policy and the evolving role of sub-national governments.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
166. Integrating Reform of Financial Regulation with Reform of the International Monetary System
- Author:
- Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper links reform of the international financial regulatory system with reform of the international monetary system because as this recent global crisis demonstrates so vividly, the root causes can come from both the financial and monetary spheres and they can interact in variety of dangerous ways. On the financial regulatory side, I highlight three problems: developing a better tool kit for pricking asset-price bubbles before they get too large; shooting for national minima for regulatory bank capital that are at least twice as high those recently agreed as part of Basel III; and implementing a comprehensive approach to "too-big-to-fail" financial institutions that will rein-in their past excessive risk-taking. On the international monetary side, I emphasize what needs to be done to discourage "beggar-thy-neighbor" exchange rate policies, including agreeing on a graduated set of penalties for countries that refuse persistently to honor their international obligations on exchange rate policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
167. G7 to G8 to G20: Evolution in Global Governance
- Author:
- Gordon S. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- This paper provides a brief history of the evolution of the Group of Seven (G7) from its origins in the aftermath of the 1971 breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of exchange rates and the oil crisis in 1973. It then discusses Russia's participation at summits after the fall of the Berlin Wall, formally joining the group in 1997, thus becoming the Group of Eight (G8). The paper gives a concise account of the formation of the Group of Twenty (G20) finance ministers and central bank governors in the late 1990s, in the wake of financial crises in Asia and Latin America, which was elevated to a leaders' summit forum at the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. The paper wraps up with a discussion of the differences in the G8 and G20 models, concluding that the G20 process is still the best option for meeting the challenges of complex global governance issues.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Asia, and Latin America
168. The Future of the G20 and Its Place in Global Governance
- Author:
- Paul Heinbecker
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the Group of 20 (the G20) from a perspective of global governance, reviewing the G20's history to date and seeking to answer two sets of questions: Is the G20 succeeding, and what does the future likely hold for it? Is it still necessary for the G20 to meet at the leaders' level, or should the enterprise be returned to finance ministers? Presuming that it endures at the leaders' level, will the G20 stick to a largely economic and financial agenda, or should it address other pressing issues? Will it complement or conflict with the Group of Eight (G8), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United Nations (UN) and other global institutions with economic and security vocations?
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, Global Recession, Food, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
169. Balancing growth and stability in EU financial reform
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- The financial crisis has forced a reappraisal of the regulatory architecture, globally and in the EU and its member states. Around the world, policymakers are proposing significant changes to rules governing the financial sector, with the goal of making the financial system more resilient. Given the large and visible costs of financial instability for Europe, it is natural for European policymakers to make the avoidance of financial crises a high priority. But it is also important to recognise that regulation carries a range of costs that can dilute the economic benefits of a competitive and dynamic financial services sector. The academic literature has robustly established that financial development is not only the consequence of economic growth but also a driver. If the EU is to achieve the ambitious goals for unleashing private enterprise and creating jobs set out within the Europe 2020 agenda, then it cannot afford to overlook the role of the financial system in fostering innovation and growth. As supervisory authorities consider a broad set of proposals to strengthen the regulatory infrastructure, a n important quest ion that arises is how to assess the aggregate impact of these various measures. Although each may look sensible in isolation, they could still impose a larger - than - expected burden on the financial system when take n in the aggregate. The focus of policy reforms should be on forcing financial institutions to internalise the social costs of their risk - taking decisions rather than suppressing financial innovation. Credible policies to allow the failure of financial institutions would encourage market monitoring of risk - taking, reducing the need for additional prudential regulation and minimising costs to the taxpayer in the event of bankruptcy. Policymakers should aim to put in place an objective, sustainable and flexible regulatory regime, as the design of the regulatory framework will play a significant role in the future development of both the financial industry and the wider economy. International consistency in the regulatory reform agenda is also important so as not to risk fragmentation of global capital markets, which bring significant economic benefits to companies and consumers alike. The economic and social purpose of financial markets is the efficient allocation of capital, and the regulatory agenda must be framed around this goal. At a time when the European economy is struggling to recover lost ground, changes to the regulatory regime should not unduly restrict the potential of the financial sector to contribute to the continents future prosperity.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
170. Inward FDI in Israel and its policy context
- Author:
- Yair Aharoni
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- In the first four decades of its existence, Israel was not successful in attracting inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) despite attempts to do so. In the past two decades, Israel have become a haven for multinational enterprises (MNEs) that have taken advantage of its unique assets – among them a skilled, educated workforce and cutting-edge research-and-development (R) capabilities – by establishing production lines or R centers and acquiring dozens of successful start ups. Israel's IFDI stock sharply increased from US$ 4.5 billion in 1990 to US$ 71.3 billion in 2009. It is expected that IFDI will further accelerate following Israel's accession to the OECD in May 2010 and as more firms from emerging market economies, including China and India, will come to appreciate its characteristics as an ideal locational choice. Israel also weathered the global economic crisis well, even though IFDI declined sharply. Israel actively encourages IFDI, mainly in high technology areas. In 2010, the Government also created special incentives to attract research centers of financial institutions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, India, and Israel
171. Inward FDI in Malaysia and its policy context
- Author:
- Rajah Rasiah and Chandran Govindaraju
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Malaysia is still perceived as an important destination for foreign direct investment (FDI). Deregulation by the Malaysian government in 1986 with a new round of Pioneer status tax holidays, tax allowances for expansion projects, liberal rules for firms operating in free trade zones (FTZs), and tax exemptions are encouraging stronger FDI inflows (IFDI). IFDI flows reached a peak in 1988-1993 as export-oriented foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) relocated manufacturing production operations to Malaysia to benefit from cheap labor, government incentives and liberal conditions for manufacturing FDI. After 1996, due to the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998, IFDI flows into Malaysia decreased and subsequently recorded the lowest level in 2001 as a result of the world trade recession. Following steady growth in 2002-2007, IFDI in Malaysia fell dramatically in 2008 and 2009 due to the global economic crisis. However, a strong resumption in the first quarter of 2010 and government efforts, including continued liberalization of manufacturing and services, the Government Transformation Programme, promoting new key economic areas, and the active role of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), contributed to an increase in inward FDI flows in the second quarter of 2010.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Malaysia and Southeast Asia
172. Outward FDI from Poland and its policy context, 2011
- Author:
- Zbigniew Zimny
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- During the transition toward a market economy, for many years Poland's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) was small and limited to trade-supporting activities in key export markets. It took off and started growing rapidly only five or six years ago, when the Polish private sector had matured enough to start generating home-grown multinational enterprises (MNEs). Some state-owned enterprises (SOEs) began also investing abroad, sometimes with the Government's encouragement. By contrast, in terms of private companies, Poland adopted a laissez-faire policy, leaving the emergence and expansion of private MNEs to market forces. In addition, Poland became a source and a transit country for large cross-border flows of funds among units of foreign and Polish firms, classified as FD I flows, artificially inflating OFDI. In the first year of the worldwide financial and economic crisis (2008) OFDI flows declined rather modestly to start growing again in 2009 and 2010 due to a relatively good performance of the Polish economy during the crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Poland
173. Inward FDI in Portugal and its policy context, 2011
- Author:
- Vitor Corado Simões and Rui Manuel Cartaxo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Portugal's performance in attracting inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) during the economic and financial crisis in 2009 was poor, below the low figures that it had already recorded in the previous couple of years, although Portugal did not record negative FDI inflows like competing countries such as Ireland (in 2008) and Hungary (in 2009). The country's difficulties in attracting IFDI are, however, structural. The “golden” years of the early 1990s, when Portugal emerged as an attractive and fashionable location, are past. The country's IFDI performance throughout the first decade of the 21st century was, in general, weak. In 2009, Spain, France and Brazil were the main sources of I FDI in Portugal. In spite of the Government's commitment to attracting IFDI, policy design and implementation have fallen short in the increasingly fierce competition for international investment.
- Topic:
- Economics and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Hungary, Portugal, and Ireland
174. Adjustment Difficulties and Debt Overhangs in the Eurozone Periphery
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This paper describes four key drivers behind the adjustment difficulties in the periphery of the eurozone: The adjustment will be particularly difficult for Greece and Portugal, as two relatively closed economies with low savings rates. Both of these countries combine high external debt levels with low growth rates, which suggest they are facing a solvency problem. In both countries fiscal adjustment is a necessary condition for overall sustainability, but it not sufficient by itself. A sharp cut in domestic consumption (or an unrealistically large jump in exports) is required to quickly establish external sustainability. An internal devaluation (a cut in nominal wages in the private sector) is unavoidable in the longer run. Without such this adjustment in the private sector, even continuing large-scale provision of official funding will not stave off default. Ireland's problems are different. They stem from the exceptionally large losses in the Irish banks, which were taken on by the national government, leading to an explosion of government debt. However, the Irish sovereign should be solvent because the country has little net foreign debt. Spain faces a similar problem as Ireland, although its foreign debt is somewhat higher but its construction bubble has been less extreme. The government should thus also be solvent, although further losses in the banking system seem unavoidable. Italy seems to have a better starting position on almost on all accounts. But its domestic savings rate has deteriorated substantially over the last decade.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Spain and Ireland
175. Governance of a Fragile Eurozone
- Author:
- Paul De Grauwe
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- When entering a monetary union, member countries change the nature of their sovereign debt in a fundamental way, i.e. they cease to have control over the currency in which their debt is issued. As a result, financial markets can force these countries' sovereigns into default. In this sense, the status of member countries of a monetary union is downgraded to that of an emerging economy. This makes the monetary union fragile and vulnerable to changing market sentiments. It also makes it possible that self-fulfilling multiple equilibria arise.
- Topic:
- Debt, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
176. The New Stability and Growth Pact: Primum non nocere
- Author:
- Claudio Vicarelli and Marco Fioramanti
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The recent economic and financial crises have shown the weakness of EU economic governance. A process of strengthening macroeconomic and fiscal surveillance started in the course of 2010; among other proposals, the European Commission suggested a new binding criterion of debt reduction: debt-to-GDP ratio is to be considered sufficiently diminishing if its distance with respect to the 60% of GDP reference value has reduced over the previous three years at a rate of the order of one-twentieth per year.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
177. Has the financial crisis shattered citizens' trust in national and European governmental institutions? Evidence from the EU member states, 1999-2010
- Author:
- Felix Roth, Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., and Thomas Otter
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The financial crisis has affected trust in national and European governmental institutions in different ways. This paper analyses the determinants of trust in the national and European institutions over the last decade and comes to the conclusion that inflation reduces citizens' trust only when the economy runs smoothly. In times of crisis, citizens do not worry about inflation but rather about jobs and the effects of a recession. Declining trust in national governments is related to an increase in unemployment in the EU-15 in all time periods, whereas trust in the European Commission and the European Parliament seems to be strongly associated with the situation in the real economy (unemployment and growth of GDP per capita) only in times of crisis. Yet in the EU-27, falling levels of trust in the national and European governmental institutions during times of crisis seem to be primarily related to an increase in government debt. In an EU-15 country sample, this negative relationship appears to be driven by countries that owe a larger share of their increase in government debt to aiding/bailing out their financial sector and the implementation of significant austerity measures.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
178. Iran in the shadow of the 2009 presidential elections
- Author:
- Rouzbeh Parsi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- In the past two years the Iranian domestic political scene has undergone a major upheaval where many established norms and institutional frame-works have been abandoned or seriously weakened. A new baseline and sense of normalcy has yet to be established.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, Politics, Insurgency, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
179. State of the union Can the euro zone survive its debt crisis?
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- In the run-up to the global financial crisis, the euro area looked very much like a microcosm of the world economy. The region as a whole grew in line with its long-term trend, and its trade position with the outside world was broadly in balance. However, the euro area's aggregate position masked large variations across the member states. In some parts of the region (notably countries on the geographical periphery), demand grew consistently faster than output; in others (like Germany), the reverse was the case. Profligacy in the periphery was funded by thrift in the "core". This arrangement suited both sides.for a time at least. While countries in the periphery enjoyed debt-fuelled booms, countries such as Germany, where domestic demand was weak, could rely on exports to keep growing.
- Topic:
- Debt, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
180. Coordinating Regional and Multilateral Financial Institutions
- Author:
- C. Randall Henning
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Recent crises and the expansion of international financial arrangements have dramatically elevated the importance of cooperation between regional institutions and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While the case for coordination between regional and multilateral institutions is generally accepted, however, the need to organize it on an ex ante basis is not fully appreciated. The relatively successful cooperation among the European Commission, European Central Bank, and IMF on the European debt crisis is not likely to be easily replicated in joint programs for countries in other regions, moreover, and the costs of coordination failure could be very large. Recent innovations at the IMF, on the other hand, present opportunities for cooperation with regional facilities. Henning reviews (1) the case for organizing cooperation on an ex ante basis, (2) the policy and institutional matters that should be coordinated, (3) how East Asian arrangements in particular and the IMF might cooperate, and (4) an Interinstitutional Agenda of general principles, modalities, and institutional recommendations. The G-20, member states, and institutions themselves should address this agenda proactively.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, International Monetary Fund, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and East Asia