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851. Three Years of the Global Partnership. A View by Russia

Author:
V. Semin
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Three years have passed since June 2002, when G8 Leaders, in the Canadian town of Kananaskis, launched the Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction (GP), and committed to support projects initially in Russia.After the end of the Cold War and demise of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited a large number of strategic nuclear missiles, means of their delivery (including strategic and generalpurpose submarines) and huge arsenals of chemical weapons. In 1991-1992 we had to consolidate urgently and put into secure storage all nuclear weapons from the Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Byelorussia, which became non-nuclear states under the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Soviet Union

852. The G8 Global Partnership on Weapons of Mass Destruction: What Next?

Author:
Daniil Kobyakov and Vladimir Orlov
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Since the inception of the G8 Global Partnership (GP) program in Kananaskis on June 27 2002, the program has passed through different stages. Initially, it was just a loud political declaration, adopted by the leaders of the G8 following the attacks of 9/11. A Russian participant of the Kananaskis Summit later recalled with some surprise how smoothly and, to some extent, unexpectedly for the Russians involved the "$20 billion" pledge was shaped in that Canadian village. Interviewed on a major European GP-related conference a year after the Kananaskis summit, he was frank to exclaim: "Arriving in Kananaskis, we [Russians] could hardly even expect that this whole giant wave now called Global Partnership would be born from our discussions of non-proliferation and counter-terrorism".
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia

853. Preventing the Brain Drain: Russia and Beyond

Author:
Vitaly Fedchenko
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
As Lao-Tzu once said, 'Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach him how to fish and you feed him for a lifetime'. This sentence expresses the essence of effective assistance. If you want to provide somebody with food, there are two options: either to supply him during all his lifetime or to teach him how to earn a living. Similarly, if you want a state to get rid of WMD capabilities, there is always an option to blow up some facilities, but the next day it would be necessary to check whether no new WMD capabilities have developed. Another option is to make the process self-sustaining on the ground, ensuring that the state itself is looking after it.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia

854. The G8 Global Partnership: Background and Current Status

Author:
Cristina Chuen
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction is nearly three years old. While the initiative—launched on June 27, 2002, at the G8 annual summit in Kananaskis, Canadai—brought new donors to the table and added a new sense of urgency to nonproliferation projects in Russia, to date the programs have yielded mixed results. There is much that remains to be done if the next seven years are going to fulfill the promise of Kananaskis.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia

855. Engaging Putin's Russia: Challenges and Opportunities for the West

Author:
Jason R. Wisniewski
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The small and medium-sized states in Southeast Asia have undergone significant geostrategic changes with the end of the Cold War and the rise of China. There has been a lively debate over the last decade about whether these countries would balance against or bandwagon with China, and how their relations with the other major powers in the region would change. Recent works that argue against the simple dichotomy of balancing versus bandwangoning are correct in asserting that Southeast Asian countries do not want to choose between the two major powers, the U.S. and China. But this paper goes further to present the results of an empirical study that fleshes out the conceptual thinking that underlies this avoidance strategy. It finds that instead of merely adopting tactical or time-buying policies, key Southeast Asian states have actively tried to influence the shaping of the new regional order. It argues that key Southeast Asian states in fact have (a) distinct coneptualisations of two main pathways to order in the region omni-enmeshment of major powers and complex balance of influence; and (b) a concrete vision of the preferred power distribution outcome, which is a hierarchical regional order.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, and Southeast Asia

856. The Complexity of Success: The U.S. Role in Russian Rule of Law Reform

Author:
Matthew J. Spence
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
MIXED RESULTS FROM THE PROLIFERATION OF WESTERN RULE OF LAW assistance over the past twenty years has taught us much about what efforts do not work. Criminal justice reform in Russia offers a different type of lesson; it is a rare success story of rule of law promotion. In the 1990s, the U.S. government sought to promote the rule of law in many parts of the former Soviet Union and beyond, but few of these efforts outside Russia produced concrete results. Instead, lawlessness became a primary symptom of the apparent failure of many attempted rule of law reforms in the former Soviet Union.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

857. Vladimir Putin and Russia's Oil Policy

Author:
Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The honeymoon between the Western oil industry and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended in mid-2003 when the Russian procurator's office began arresting Yukos executives. The Kremlin's seemingly sudden attack on private industry surprised the international business community that was expecting investment-friendly behavior from the Russian leadership. After assuming power in late 1999, Putin quickly signaled interest in developing a strong energy partnership with the United States, including increased opportunities for Western firms to invest in Russia's oil and gas industry.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

858. Financial Sector Structure and Financial Crisis Burden: A Model Based on the Russian Default of 1998

Author:
George Mavrotas and Dmitri Vinogradov
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We consider an overlapping generations model with two production factors and two types of agents in the presence of financial intermediation and its application to the Russian default of August 1998. The paper focuses on the analysis of the consequences of a sudden negative repayments shock on financial intermediation capacity and consequently on the economy as a whole. The model exhibits a 'chain reaction' property, when a single macroeconomic shock can lead to the exhaustion of credit resources and to the subsequent collapse of the whole banking system. To maintain the capability of the system to recover, regulatory intervention is needed even in the presence of the state guarantees on agents' deposits in the banks (workout incentives). We compare the results for an intermediated economy with those derived under the assumption of a market economy, and draw some broad conclusions on the consequences of the crises, which are contingent on the financial sector structure.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia

859. Beslan: Russia's 9/11?

Author:
John B. Dunlop
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
According to official Russian statistics, in the period between 1-3 September 2004, 330 individuals perished in a terrorist incident at School Number 1 in the town of Beslan in the southern Russian Republic of North Ossetia. Of those who died, 317 were hostages—186 of them children. Ten were soldiers from the Russian FSB's spetsnaz (special forces). Two were personnel from the Russian Ministry for Emergency Situations. One was a resident of Beslan killed while helping to evacuate the hostages during the storming of the building. Seven hundred and twenty-eight persons were said to have been wounded. A majority of the hostages who died—more than 160—perished under the school's collapsed roof. The Mothers of Beslan committee, comprised of mothers of pupils who perished in the building, provided even higher figures. “218 of those killed were found with burns,” they claim.
Topic:
Government, Human Welfare, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia

860. Iran: The Moment of Truth

Author:
Patrick Clawson, François Heisbourg, and Vladimir Sazhin
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The definition of European policy objectives and strategies vis-à-vis Iran's nuclear ambitions must take into account the specificities of the case, setting, as it were, its problématique. First, we have the unusual situation of a basically three-way game: the EU (and notably the EU-3, comprising the UK, France and Germany), Iran and the 'significant other', the United States, which is outside of the negotiation but a key player. Any student in strategy knows that a triangle is the most unstable and tricky combination to deal with, and the presence of yet another set of outsiders (notably Russia and China) adds another element of complexity.
Topic:
Development and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany

861. Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia

Author:
Pekka Sulamaa and Mika Widgrén
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This study simulates the economic effects of eastern enlargement of the EU and an EU-Russian free trade area. The main emphasis of the paper is on the effect this would have on the Russian economy. The simulations were carried out with a GTAP computable general equilibrium model, using the most recent GTAP database 6.0 beta, which takes the former Europe agreements between the EU-15 and the eight new Central and Eastern European member states into account. The results confirm the earlier findings that a free trade agreement with the EU is beneficial for Russia in terms of total output but not necessarily in terms of economic welfare when measured by equivalent variation. The main reason behind this is the deterioration that would occur in Russia's terms of trade. Improved productivity in Russia would, however, make the free trade agreement with the EU advantageous.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

862. Iran, the international community and the nuclear issue: where to next?

Author:
Anthony Bubalo and Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The international impasse over Iran\'s nuclear program is entering a critical phase. The compromise being offered by the international community, whereby Iran would carry out sensitive uranium enrichment work in Russia, is unlikely to be accepted in full by Tehran. The hardline rhetoric of new President Ahmedinejad is further limiting the prospects of a diplomatic solution being found. As a result, the issue is likely to come before the Security Council. Once in New York there are a number of ways it could play out. But at this stage it is not clear what the Council would be able to do to force a change of behaviour from Tehran. Faced with poor options all round, Washington may feel at some point that it has to risk the uncertain results of limited air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities to delay what it regards as the unthinkable - a nuclear armed Iran.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

863. What Iraq and Argentina Might Learn from Each Other

Author:
Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Financial collapse usually triggers a flurry of market, academic, and policy innovation. The Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s produced the Brady Bonds and led to the rise of today's emerging markets. In the late 1990s, crises in Pakistan, Ecuador, and Ukraine helped teach the markets how to restructure international sovereign bonds. Crises in Mexico, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and throughout East Asia raised doubts about the international system's ability to manage vast and rapid capital flows, and prompted a big-picture reassessment under the rubric “international financial architecture.” This included most famously the sovereign bankruptcy proposals discussed elsewhere in this volume.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, East Asia, Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Mexico

864. Western Capital vs. the Russian State: Towards an Explanation of Recent Trends in Russia's Corporate Governance

Author:
Stanislav Markus
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The literature on corporate governance in Russia stresses the abuse of shareholder rights in the face of various asset-diversion tactics by the management. Attributing this fiasco to a number of structural obstacles and the privatization legacy, the orthodox account fails to incorporate–let alone explain–the recent data demonstrating a qualitative improvement of corporate governance in crucial segments of the Russian economy. This paper disaggregates “corporate governance” into specific institutions and examines their quality at the firm level as well as by sector. The data supporting the analysis is drawn from recent studies by the OECD, UBS Warburg, CEFIR, and other organizations. The causal inference presented in this paper critically evaluates the impact of foreign capital on the improved corporate governance in Russia's blue-chip firms. The paper presents two alternative state-centered scenarios to explain the implementation of internationally accepted standards of corporate governance by Russia's big business.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

865. CERI: Russian Foreign Policy Discourse during the Kosovo Crisis: Internal Struggles and the Political Imaginaire

Author:
Guillaume Colin
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
The Kosovo crisis gave rise to a domestic political crisis in Russia. The NATO bombings called into question the efficiency of Russian foreign policy, which was against them, challenging the worldview that the government conveyed, thereby reinforcing the communist anti-establishment vision. The present article, by analysing the press conferences given by both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Communist Party, argues that each of the two narratives aimed to construct and impose (or defend) its own worldview and dividing principles of the world. In both narratives, this struggle was backed up using very strong political identity myths—namely Russia's relation to the West and the memory of the Second World War—that are referred to in opposite ways. The Kosovo example allows us to highlight the stakes and themes that work their way into Russian foreign policy discourse and contribute to exploiting foreign policy issues in Russian domestic political debate, and also cast light on the distorting effects caused by this instrumentalization.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Kosovo

866. Transfrontier Cooperation in the North-West of Russia: 21st Century

Author:
Vladlena V. Eliseeva
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
This study has been prepared in conjunction with the Transfrontier Cooperation Do- nor Forum held in St. Petersburg on April 25, 2003 under the EastWest Instituteís Regional and Transfrontier Cooperation (RTFC) Program. EWI has over ten years of experience in transfrontier cooperation in various regions of Europe. Long before issues surrounding the upcoming EU enlargement were a top priority on the EU-Russia agenda, EWIís RTFC Program was researching and assessing the impact of enlargement on the Baltic Sea Region in general, and on the Kaliningrad Region (EWIís priority area in the North-West of Russia) in particular. Today, in view of the upcoming European Union enlargement, transfrontier cooperation (TFC) has assumed an increasing importance for the future of a larger Europe.
Topic:
Development and Globalization
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

867. The Logic of Piloting and Trans-Border Regionalism: The Project-Oriented Approach in EU-Russian Cooperation

Author:
Andrey Makarychev and Sergei Prozorov
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper addresses the impact of innovative developments in Russian policy-making discourse during the Putin presidency on the transformation of conflict issues in EU-Russian relations. The increasing recourse of Russian policy-makers in the border regions to the so-called 'projectoriented approach', which has an affinity to the modality of policy-making espoused by the EU programmes in Russia, has important consequences for conflictual dispositions in EU-Russian trans-border relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Development
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

868. Marginality or Provinciality: Pskov and Ivangorod at the Intersection of Russia's Transborder Relations

Author:
Andrey Makarychev
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
My intention in this paper is to analyze the state of trans-border relationship between Russia, on the one hand, and Latvia and Estonia, on the other, in terms of interplay between central and non-central actors. Two basic concepts–that ones of marginality and provinciality–will be used as points of departure and compared with each other. Each of these concepts develops its own narrative and a discursive strategy. In some instances, these narratives may smoothly complement each other; and yet in other occurrences, they conflict in a manner that fuels "a battle of the story".
Topic:
International Relations and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, Estonia, and Latvia

869. Russian Conservatism in the Putin Presidency

Author:
Sergei Prozorov
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The article seeks to map the emergent discursive field of conservatism in Russian politics in the context of the reshapement of the political space in the Putin presidency. In the course of Putin's first presidential term 'conservatism' became a privileged mode of political selfidentification in the Russian discourse, functioning as the nodal point of the hegemonic project of the Presidency. Yet, in accordance with the Foucauldian understanding of discourse as a system of dispersion, the article demonstrates the way the conservative discourse is internally fractured into two antagonistic strands, identified by their practitioners as liberal and left conservatisms. While the liberal-conservative orientation supports and sustains the depoliticising project of the Putin presidency, which orders and stabilises the effects of the anti-communist revolution, left conservatism functions in the modality of radical opposition to the Putinian hegemony, thereby contributing to the pluralisation of political space in contemporary Russia. In the present Russian political constellation 'conservatism' is therefore less a name for a stable hegemonic configuration than a designator of the field of political struggle over the very identity of postcommunist Russia. The article concludes with a critical discussion of the relation the two strands of Russian conservatism establish to the period of the 1990s as the 'moment of the political' in the Russian postcommunist transformation.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

870. The Russian Northwestern Federal District and EU's Northern Dimension

Author:
Sergei Prozorov
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Northwestern Federal District of the Russian Federation has been particularly active in asserting itself as a macro-regional political subject, transcending the administrative borders of the subjects of the Russian Federation. This affirmation of the Northwest as a macro-region is also characterised by the explicit location of the Federal District within the international regional context and the linkage of the newly elaborated strategic development plans with EU policies in the region, particularly the Northern Dimension. This strategic policy discourse is grounded in the problematisation of the existing format of EU-Russian cooperation on the regional level as marked by the passivity of Russian regions vis-à-vis EU policies. The district-level strategies proceed, on the contrary, from the need to assume a more active and assertive position towards the EU that would allow to integrate the policies of the Northern Dimension with the domestic reform vision in Russia. The paper seeks to analyse the international dimensions of the strategic discourse of the Northwestern 'macro-region', elucidate the conflict episodes and conflict issues that are articulated in this discourse and address the wider implications of the emergence of the Northwestern Federal District for the EU-Russian regional cooperation in the border regions.
Topic:
Politics and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

871. What Is New About Today's EU-Russia Border?

Author:
Vadim Kononenko
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
On May 1st 2004, the EU reshaped its eastern borders by taking on board ten new member states. Among the many neighbours the EU meets across its enlarged borders, Russia occupies a very specific place. With all the talk about the emerging new EU neighbourhood, one may find it paradoxical that Russia is regarded as one of these new neighbours. There seems to be nothing new about Russia and the EU being neighbours, as they have had a common border for nine years already, since the accession of Finland to the EU in 1995. In this regard, the border that emerged in 2004 can be seen as simply a continuation of the existing 1300-km borderland in the north and as a result of the long-planned accession of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland to the European Union. Added to this is the notion that, for all these countries, the existence of a border with Russia had become a reality more than a decade ago, after every legal and political tie with the dissolving Soviet Union had forever been severed. Later, as preparations for these countries to join the Union got underway, they, in order to comply with the EU's Copenhagen criteria for the new applicants, were to transform their external borders and policies according to the EU's Schengen acquis.
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Poland, Lithuania, Soviet Union, Latvia, and Northern Europe

872. Russia and Europe: A Finnish View

Author:
Henrikki Heikka
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
In recent months, several prominent Finnish politicians have criticized the Finnish government for lack of vision in its foreign policy. Liisa Jaakonsaari, Chairman of the Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee and a prominent social democrat), has argued that the government “lacks one thing, and with it, everything: a vision”. Member of the European Parliament Alexander Stubb (the Conservative party's vote puller in the last EP elections) has publicly called contemporary Finnish foreign policy as “pitiful tinkering” (säälittävää näpertelyä). Editorial writers have begun to recycle the old the term “driwftwood” (ajopuu), a term originally coined to describe Finland's flip-flopping during World War II, in their attempts to find an appropriate label for the present government's foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Finland, and Asia

873. Russian-Speaking Minorities in Estonia and Latvia: Problems of Integration at the Threshold of th European Union

Author:
Peter Van Elsuwege
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
The restoration of the Baltic states' independence, back in 1991, brought about a number of political and legal challenges. The presence of large nontitular communities in Estonia and Latvi has proven to be the most pressing of these. Notwithstanding the fact that the European Commission already in 1997 concluded that 'on the whole the rights of the Russian-speaking minorities are observed and safeguarded', the legal status of these living relics of the Soviet period remains controversial. A resolution of the Council of Europe Committee of Ministers, adopted on 13 June 2002, criticised the protection of national minorities in Estonia. In the lead-up to the December 2003 parliamentary elections, the Russian Duma adopted a resolution 'on gross violations of human and minority rights in the Republic of Latvia'. Dmitry Rogozin, chairman of the Parliamentarian Committee on International Relations, announced that Russia should consider the weapon of economic sanctions to put pressure on the Baltic state, which he described as 'a land of hooligans' where 'Nazis have come to power'. Whereas these statements have to be situated within the context of the ongoing election campaign, the remarks of Alvaro Gil-Robles, European Council Commissioner for Human Rights, are to be taken more serious. During his visit to Riga in October 2003, the High Commissioner criticized the lack of citizenship for more than twenty per cent of Latvia's population and recommended the granting of voting rights to non-citizens in municipal elections. On the other hand, Günter Verheugen, EU Commissioner responsible for enlargement, declared that Latvia fulfils all the criteria in the field of societal integration and has complied with all international requirements regarding its ethnic minorities.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

874. Ensuring Equal Rights in the Elections Process

Author:
Marcin Walecki
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
The collapse of the Soviet Union marked a fourth wave of regime change – to democracy and autocracy. The only certain outcome of this transition is the abandonment of Communism, and not, as expected, the ultimate establishment of the liberal democracy. Most of the post-Communist states are still hybrids, mixed polities or consolidated autocracies - only some can be classified as consolidated democracies.
Topic:
International Relations, Communism, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Russia

875. The Presidential Crisis in Lithuania: Its Roots and the Russian Factor

Author:
Richard J. Krickus
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to address two questions associated with Lithuania's political crisis in 2004. First, what were the domestic circumstances that led to the impeachment of Lithuania's President, Rolandas Paksas? Second, what evidence is there that Russia has played a significant role in the crisis and what are the motives behind Moscow's meddling in Lithuania's internal affairs? Answers to these questions are pertinent to the fate of countries throughout post-communist Europe, given their common history and geography. In addition, they provide the framework for addressing a third question that must be answered by the European Union (EU), NATO and the United States: what can be done about these two-fold threats to the newest members of the Western alliance?
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Lithuania, and Moscow

876. Collision Avoidance: U.S.-Russian Bilateral Relations and Former Soviet States

Author:
Eugene B. Rumer
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The year 2003 was a difficult one in U.S.- Russian relations, and 2004 promises to be even more challenging. Disagreements between Washington and Moscow over Iraq were the most visible in a series of events that also included American concerns about Chechnya, the authoritarian tilt in Russian domestic politics, Russia's fading media freedom, selective prosecution of independent-minded businessmen, and meddling in the internal affairs of its neighbors. Together, these events add up to a trend that spells trouble for the ambitious U.S.-Russian strategic framework inaugurated by President George W. Bush and President Vladimir Putin in 2002. Yet rarely if ever has the need for greater cooperation between the two countries been more urgent than it will be in 2004 and the years to come.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Washington, Soviet Union, and Moscow

877. Securing Afghanistan: Entering a Make-or-Break Phase?

Author:
T.X Hammes and Robert B. Oakley
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
To appreciate Afghanistan's predicament, it is essential to understand that all Afghan politics are tribal. Thus, while Afghans share a genuine national identity, their immediate concern in any political process is to advance or preserve the welfare of their ethnic or extended family group. Further, since the Russians and British artificially imposed the country's international borders, the tribes are not wholly contained within Afghanistan. They straddle the borders with surrounding nations. Thus, tribal politics are also international politics.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, and Middle East

878. The Russian Debate on the Nonproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Delivery Vehicles

Author:
Vladimir Dvorkin
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
In the first paragraphs of their declaration at the Evian Summit in early June 2003, the G8 leaders stated, .We recognize that proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their means of delivery poses a growing danger to us all. Together with the spread of international terrorism, it is the pre-eminent threat to international security.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

879. If Not Balancing, What? Forms of Resistance to American Hegemony

Author:
Jeremy Pressman
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
While traditional understandings of international affairs would predict the formation of a balancing coalition against the dominant U.S. position in world affairs, some analysts now contend that the U.S. advantage is so comprehensive and so unprecedented that we have not seen and will not see balancing behavior on the part of second tier powers like China, Russia, Japan, and Germany. It would be a mistake, however, to assume that the absence of balancing means the United States will not face any meaningful opposition in the international arena. Though in the short term a bloc of states is unlikely to form a counter-coalition. the historical form of resistance to dominant powers other states still find important ways to resist U.S. dominance.
Topic:
International Relations and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Japan, China, and Germany

880. Well Being and Unemployment in Russian in the 1990's: Can Society's Suffering Be Individuals' Solace?

Author:
Andrew; Gaddy Eggers
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper studies the effect of regional unemployment rates on subjective well-being in post-Soviet Russia. Research conducted in Europe and the United States has documented that higher unemployment rates lead to lower reported life-satisfaction. By contrast, our Russian study finds a small but significant effect in the other direction. We estimate that du ring the period of our study (1995-2001), each percentage point increase in the local unemployment rate was correlated with the average well-being of people in the region increasing by an amount equivalent to moving 2% of the population up one level in life satisfaction measured on a five-point scale. Our intuition is that the so-called comparison effect drives this result: when individuals observe their peers suffering in a troubled economy, they lower their standards of what is good enough. All else equal, they thus perceive themselves to be better off in worse times. In highlighting the dependence of subjective well-being scores on expectations and reference groups, we sound a note of caution against using happiness data from economies in crisis to draw macroeconomic policy conclusions.
Topic:
Economics and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

881. E.U.—RUSSIA RELATIONS: Interests and Value—A European Perspective

Author:
Rolf Schuette
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia easily comes first in the time and energy that the E.U. has devoted to developing relations with outside partners, both in the economic field and regarding the political dialogue within the context of the E.U.'s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP). Russia has been the subject of many fundamental policy documents, policy implementation instruments, and internal discussions during the past decade. The density and frequency of the bilateral dialogue between Russia and the E.U. are unique.
Topic:
Democratization and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

882. Azerbaijan: Turning Over a New Leaf?

Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Oil-rich Azerbaijan, which borders Iran, Turkey and Russia and is still scarred from its defeat by Armenia ten years ago, gives cause for both hope and concern. The October 2003 election of Ilham Aliyev to the presidency that his late-father, Heydar, had held almost from independence, highlighted the stark choices which now face the country. Its government is a carefully designed autocratic system, which the father and former Soviet-era politburo member began to construct in the late 1960 s, with heavy reliance on family and clan members, oil revenues and patronage.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

883. Longevity in Russia's Regions: Do Poverty and Low Public Health Spending Kill?

Author:
Oleksiy Ivaschenko
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of changes in poverty and public health spending on inter-temporal variations in longevity using a unique regional-level dataset that covers 77 regions of Russia over the period 1994-2000. The dynamic panel data model is used as a tool for the empirical analysis. The model is estimated using the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel data estimator. The changes in regional levels of poverty and real per capita public health expenditure are identified to be significant determinants of the variations observed in longevity over time. The empirical results indicate that while male life expectancy responds more strongly than female life expectancy to economic circumstances, the latter appears to be more predisposed to the influence of public health spending. The results support the idea that the (positive) effect of public health spending on life expectancy is larger for those regions that experience higher incidences of poverty. The paper also finds that the financial crisis which hit Russia at the end of 1998 had a significant negative effect on longevity independently of the factors directly related to poverty and public health spending.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Political Economy, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

884. Russia and the West

Author:
Michael Emerson and Irina Kobrinskaya
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Russia and the EU talk in their summit communiqués about their strategic partnership, but it seems like an awkward partnership. The relationship is not that bad, certainly not life-threatening, but it is not that good either.
Topic:
Security and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

885. Economic Prospects for Kaliningrad: Between EU Enlargement and Russia's Integration into the World Economy

Author:
Evgeny Vinokurov
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Kaliningrad oblast of Russia is currently an important focal point of discussions between the European Union and Russia. Although small in terms of geography and population, Kaliningrad has grown in importance due to the EU enlargement process. Since the break–up of the Soviet Union, the oblast has become an exclave of Russia, and it is now set to also become an enclave within the EU. This paper examines the state of Kaliningrad's economy and trade. The economic crisis that took place in Russia in the 1990s had severe consequences for Kaliningrad, as old patterns of production and trade were disrupted. Since 1999, however, the regional economy has grown with impressive speed. Kaliningrad's Special Economic Zone (SEZ) status has played a crucial role in determining its new patterns of production and trade specialisation. The paper argues that the SEZ regime has made the region's economic growth faster but also vulnerable.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

886. European Homeland Security Post-March 11th and Transatlantic Relations

Author:
Didier Bigo, Jeremy Shapiro, and Andrei Fedorov
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the oral presentation of their papers, Didier Bigo, Jeremy Shapiro and Andrei Fedorov generally highlighted their respective region's specificities rather than dwelling on the elements of commonality. Although this was in part a consequence of the European Security Forum's modus operandi – with its differentiated European, American and Russian perspectives, rarely in our meetings has the contrast been so clearly highlighted.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

887. The Language of Democracy: Vernacular Or Esperanto? A Comparison between the Multiculturalist and Cosmopolitan Perspectives

Author:
Daniele Archibugi
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Will Kymlicka has argued “democratic politics is politics in the vernacular.” Does it imply that democratic politics is impossible in a multilingual community, whether at the local, national, regional or global level? This paper discusses this assumption and maintains that democratic politics should imply the willingness of all players to make an effort to understand each other. Democratic politics imply the willingness to overcome the barriers to mutual understanding, including the linguistic ones. Any time that there is a community of fate, a democrat should search for methods that allow deliberation according to the two key conditions of political equality and participation. If linguistic diversity is an obstacle to equality and participation, some methods should be found to overcome it, as exemplified by the Esperanto metaphor. The paper illustrates the argument with four cases of multi-linguistic political communities: a) a school in California with English-speaking and Spanish-speaking students; b) the city of Byelostok in the second half of the nineteenth century, where four different linguistic communities (Polish, Russian, German and Yiddish) coexisted. This led Markus Zamenhof to invent Esperanto; c) the linguistic problems of the Indian state, and the role played by English – a language unspoken by the majority of the Indian population in 1947 – in developing Indian democracy; and d) the case of the European Parliament, with twenty languages and a wealth of interpreters and translators.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, India, California, and Germany

888. The Proliferation Security Initiative in Perspective

Author:
Andrew Prosser
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Participant countries of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), a U.S.-led effort to stem the illicit trafficking of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and delivery systems, met on the first anniversary of the initiative, from May 31 to June 1 in Krakow, Poland. Russia announced on the first day of the meeting its decision to participate in the PSI, a move that U.S. officials had supported as an important step in augmenting the effectiveness of the initiative. However, Russia's participation will only occur, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, as long as PSI activities do not violate national or international law. Russian officials have similarly expressed concerns that the PSI's land, sea, and air-based WMD interdiction activities could endanger international commerce, and give unwarranted powers to the U.S. Navy to act as a global police force.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

889. CERI: Barter and Inter-business Transactions in Russia: Trade Normalization in View after the Ruble Crisis of 1998?

Author:
Caroline Dufy
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Barter was a prominent issue in public debate during the 1990s in Russia: it prompted a more overall reflection on the nature of the Russian economy and the aim pursued by economic reforms. These major issues shaped a number of divisions: the government opposition portrayed barter as one of the pernicious effects of economic policies that gave priority to finance to the detriment of the national productive sphere. For others, it was to be interpreted as the legacy of the Soviet industrial sector and its lack of competitiveness.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

890. CERI: Developing Border Cooperation between China and Russia

Author:
Sébastien Colin
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Since the resumption of talks between China and Russia – still the Soviet Union when this occurred in the mid-1980s, relations between the two countries have been particularly dynamic. On the international level, the two countries in fact share the same viewpoint on a number of issues. These mutual concerns led to the signing of a strategic partnership in 1997, then a new treaty of friendship in 2001. The complementarity between the two countries in the energy and arms sectors also stimulates cooperation. However, this alliance is not without its limits. The United States, its primary target, can easily short-circuit it, as it did just after the September 11, 2001 attacks. In the field of cooperation, the intensity and structure of trade between the two countries are both inadequate. The rise in trade during the 1990s was very uneven and marked by a drop between 1994 and 1996. The main causes of this are situated at the local echelon along the Chinese-Russian border. After the dynamism characteristic of the 1988-1993 period, the opening of the border triggered new problems, such as illegal Chinese immigration in the little-inhabited border zones of Russia. Although this trend caused friction among the local Russian population, it was mainly the retrocession of certain Russian territories to China when the border was demarcated between 1993 and 1997 that radicalized the inhabitants, paralyzing border cooperation. The Russian and Chinese government played an active role in attempting to resolve most of these disputes, as the Tumen program illustrated. Since then, the various authorities in the two countries have tried to revitalize border cooperation, but a number of problems remain that are mainly economic in nature and vary depending on the border region.
Topic:
Development and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Asia

891. Chechen Militia Threaten Increased Terrorism

Author:
Tamara Makarenko
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:
Chechen resistance movements have reorganised to adjust to the post 11 September 2001 security environment, and appear to be adopting more lethal terrorist tactics. Tamara Makarenko reports.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

892. American, European and Russian Cooperation: Security and Defence in the 21st century

Author:
Hella Pick
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The ramifications of the Iraq crisis are provoking a wholesale reassessment of the post-1945 system of multinational institutions ñ ranging from the United Nations to NATO and the European Union. Underlying such concerns is Americaís use of power and the role it defines for itself in managing its international relations.
Topic:
NATO and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iraq, America, Europe, and Asia

893. On the Frontline of an Epidemic: The Need for Urgency in Russia's Fight Against AIDS

Author:
John E. Tedstrom
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
AIDS is a global threat that affects us all. Its destructive reach extends far beyond the sphere of public health, threatening social stability, economic performance, and national security. The United States has struggled with HIV/AIDS for over 20 years. At least 440,000 Americans have died from AIDS -related conditions, many more than would have if American political leaders had acted early in the 1980s to confront the epidemic in its initial stages. Over time, however, the commitment of the U.S. government to prevent the spread of HIV and treat people living with HIV/AIDS produced remarkable results. New infections have dropped from 150,000 per year to 40,000 per year, and AIDS -related deaths have been cut in half.
Topic:
Security, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, and Asia

894. The Federal Budget and the Regions

Author:
A.M. Lavrov
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Improvement of the financial relations between the Federation and the regions still remains quite an urgent problem. The Concept of Reforming Inter budgetary Relations in the Russian Federation in 1999 — 2000 is being implemented; Russia's Finance Ministry has developed the Concept of Reforming Budget Federalism in the Russian Federation to 2005, which will soon be approved by the Government; a special section on interbudgetary relations has been included in the Main Long- Term Trends of Socio-Economic Policy of the Russian Federation Government program, drafted by the Strategic Research Center.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Bosnia

895. Russian Foreign Policy Think Tanks in 2002

Author:
Katri Pynnöniemi
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
This report provides a general picture of research institutes working in the areas of foreign and security policy in Moscow and St. Petersburg. In the following, I will briefly discuss changes in research financing and the consequent reorganisation of the research community. After this, major changes in the study of international relations in Russia are also discussed. A list of the most important research institutes in Moscow and St. Petersburg is appended to the report. In addition, information is provided on the forums and publications of most importance in the foreign-policy debate.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

896. From Yugoslavia to Iraq: Russia's Foreign Policy and the Effects of Multipolarity

Author:
Vadim Kononenko
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to analyze the evolution and political implications of Russia's doctrine of multipolarity. Multipolarity emerged as one of the earliest doctrinal solutions to the post-Soviet Russian foreign policy dilemma, and has remained essential for Russia's strategic behavior since the early 1990s. The multipolarity doctrine describes the post-Cold War world and Russia's place in it. As I argue in this study, Russian “multipolarity” – (the idea of the multipolar world; the vision of Russia as one of its 'poles'; and the understanding of the principles of international politics in the strict terms of realpolitik) is not an ideological resource for Russia's foreign policy but rather, a result of learning how to secure the country' s international status given the scarcity of foreign policy resources available, and the drastic change in the international institutional position of Russia. To sum up the central argument of this study: the multipolarity of Russian foreign policy – both a doctrinal strategy and foreign policy practice – has evolved as a template-like foreign policy approach to solve Russia's strategic dilemma since the demise of the Soviet Union: how to secure its place in the new international structure and compensate for the loss of the international arrangements that disappeared with Soviet might and the bipolar international system as a whole.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Soviet Union, and Balkans

897. EU-Russian security dimensions

Author:
Dov Lynch
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
EU-Russian security cooperation remains nascent, but some important ground has been cleared since 2000. Yet, the dialogue is neither without ambiguity or problems. It is replete with both. This Occasional Paper examines three facets of EU-Russia security relations. The first chapter, by Hiski Haukkala, compares EU and Russian perceptions of the other in security terms. Haukkala traces the evolution of EU thinking on Russia throughout the 1990s, highlighting the obstacles that held up the development of a strategic vision of the 'partnership'. Following an analysis of how Russia views the EU, he concludes that both have different visions of the other which lie at the source of problems of perception and expectation. In the second chapter, Thomas Gomart concentrates on a single aspect of the EU's Common Strategy on Russia (1999), that of preventive diplomacy, examined through the cases of Belarus and Macedonia. Gomart notes the absence of coordination between the EU and Russia in the former Soviet Union and the Balkans, and stresses the need for greater effort. Gomart notes also the danger of blurring the lines between the 'preventive' and the 'pre-emptive', particularly with regard to counter-terrorism. Anaïs Marin concludes this Occasional Paper with an examination of the Northern Dimension. Marin notes the unique utility of the 'dimensionalist' approach to EU- Russian relations, which takes in a wide range of subjects and different types of actors within a flexible framework. In conclusion, she rejects calls for a greater institutionalisation of the Northern Dimension, arguing that flexibility and 'lightness' are its strength.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

898. The South Caucasus: a challenge for the EU

Author:
Dov Lynch
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The South Caucasus contains three states that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union: Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Geographically, the region is populated by some fifteen million people, links the Caspian Sea basin to the Black Sea on an east-to-west axis, and is the juncture between the greater Middle East, Turkey and Iran, and the Russian Federation. This chapter will introduce a number of themes that run through this Chaillot Paper. The first part examines the nature of the 'transition' that the three South Caucasian states have undergone with a view to understanding the scale of their transformation. A second part discusses dimensions of state weakness across the region. Next, the chapter considers the impact of third parties on regional security/insecurity, and finally it outlines the structure of the volume.
Topic:
Security and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

899. EU cooperative threat reduction activities in Russia

Author:
Burkard Schmitt
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
To strengthen the security structure of an erstwhile enemy, and a country that hard-nosed defence analysts and military planners - think of the last two US Nuclear Posture Reviews – still view as a potential threat, is quite an unorthodox and innovative way to address one's own security concerns. Yet cooperative threat reduction (CTR) has become part and parcel of Western security policy. A considerable number of NATO and European Union (EU) member states are involved in this sort of activity, as is the EU itself, including its most genuinely European actor, the European Commission (EC).
Topic:
International Cooperation and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Soviet Union

900. Russia faces Europe

Author:
Dov Lynch
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The crisis on Iraq has challenged key features of international relations. The United States and Britain intervened in Iraq without the specific support of the United Nations, avoiding a second resolution in February 2003 precisely because they feared coercive action would be vetoed. The UN has taken a serious blow and the parameters of international law on self-defence and the use of force are being redefined by US and British actions. The crisis has also left the transatlantic relationship in tatters, with the appearance of serious divisions in Europe and inside the European Union. France, Germany and Russia coordinated their positions against coercive actions within the UN Security Council, adopting a number of joint declarations in 2003 on how to strengthen the inspection regime. With all this, the very notion of the West as it existed in the Cold War seems under question.
Topic:
Security and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, America, Europe, France, Kosovo, Germany, United Nations, and Syria