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1. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes

Author:
Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, and Joschka Wanner
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential — the maximum welfare change attainable — when sanctions are scaled vertically, i.e. across sectors up to an embargo, or horizontally, i.e. across countries up to a global regime. To gauge the significance of simulation outcomes, we implement a Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands. We find that the implemented measures against Iran and Russia inflicted considerable economic harm, yielding 32 – 37% of the vertical sanctions potential. Our key finding is that coalitions lower the average welfare loss incurred from sanctions relative to unilateral implementation. They also increase the welfare loss imposed on Iran and Russia. Adding China to the coalition further amplifies the welfare loss by 79% for Iran and 22% for Russia. Finally, we quantify transfers that would equalize losses across coalition members. These hypothetical transfers can be seen as a sanctions-equivalent of NATO spending goals and provide a measure of the relative burden borne by coalition countries.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Sanctions, Alliance, and Embargo
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2. How does China fare on the Russian market? Implications for the European Union

Author:
Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Jianwei Xu
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
China’s economic ties with Russia are deepening. Meanwhile, Europe remains Russia’s largest trading partner, lender and investor. An analysis of China’s ties with Russia, indicate that China seems to have become more of a competitor to the European Union on Russia’s market. Competition over investment and lending is more limited, but the situation could change rapidly with China and Russia giving clear signs of a stronger than ever strategic partnership.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Investment, and Exports
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia

3. Global risk hotspots: an EIU assessment

Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Now, more than ever, financial institutions require authoritative and trusted assessments of credit risk to pursue profitable opportunities in challenging markets. This report provides a snapshot of some of the capabilities of The Economist Intelligence Unit's (The EIU's) risk assessment services. It analyses risk scenarios in depth, to help you understand and respond to risks that could impact your business. The EIU can help you assess and compare cross-border credit and financial risk in 128 markets worldwide. Our Country Risk Service provides in-depth ratings enables you to swiftly identify countries which are experiencing a deterioration or improvement in creditworthiness and to rank countries in order of riskiness, it's a valuable tool to help your organisation to optimise its country credit limits.
Topic:
Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, Greece, Brazil, and Italy

4. Caspian Gas, TANAP and TAP in Europe's Energy Security

Author:
Ariel Cohen
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Russia's occupation of the Crimea and possible incorporation of Eastern Ukrainian regions demonstrated Europe's vulnerability to Gazprom's energy power. Whatever the EU's reactions, diversification of energy supply to diminish Russia's market share is likely to be one of them. TAP is one step towards the strategic goal of diminishing Gazprom's huge presence in Europe. But in view of the proposed construction of the Russian South Stream, how could Central Europe, and especially Bulgaria, Romania, Austria and Lithuania, ensure energy diversification? What next for the Southern Corridor? Is Russia going to accept and tolerate infrastructure growth of the Caspian and other competitors south of its borders?
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, and Austria

5. Freeing the Global Market: How to Boost the Economy by Curbing Regulatory Distortions

Author:
Shanker A. Singham
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage. ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars. To combat ACMDs, the conventional trade policy approach of focusing on the The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage.1 ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, and Brazil

6. Retail 2022: How the Economist Intelligence Unit sees the retail landscape changing over the next decade

Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Markets of the future—China, India, Brazil and Russia—will become the dominant retail markets l Africa, the final frontier—as BRIC opportunities diminish retailers will look to Africa as a driver of growth l Virtual marketplace— e-commerce, m-commerce and s-commerce—will transform the global retail landscape l Bricks and mortar will fight back as traditional retailers respond to change by integrating online with physical store offerings l Convenience will be king as shopping habits evolve into a multichannel approach rather than “one-stop shopping” l UK focus: polarised shopping habits could continue even when incomes recover, leading to an even greater squeeze on mid-market retail by 2022.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:
Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, and Brazil

7. Eschewing Choice: Ukraine's Strategy on Russia and the EU

Author:
Elena Gnedina and Evghenia Sleptsova
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Ukraine has long been castigated for its noncommittal attitude to cooperation with the EU, this being part of its 'multi-vector' foreign policy. Such a policy was widely attributed to the failings of domestic elites, which delay reform for fear of losing rents and power. This CEPS Working Document suggests, however, that the recent setback in EU-Ukraine relations highlights more complex reasons behind this. First, it asserts that a pro-European vector is not a self-evident choice for Ukraine, which is economically interdependent with both Russia and the EU. Second, it finds that the economic crisis has made the EU less attractive in the short term. In good times business was looking to Europe for opportunities to develop. But in times of crisis, it is looking to Russia for cheap resources to survive. Despite these unfavourable short-term trends, the authors conclude that an association agreement with the EU stands out as the only alternative that promises to put the shaky Ukrainian economy back on track towards long-term sustainable economic growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8. The South East Europe Pipeline: Greater Benefit for a Greater Number of Actors

Author:
Elnur Soltanov
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The South East Europe Pipeline (SEEP), proposed by BP in late September 2011, could eventually be the pipeline carrying Azeri gas to European markets. Compared to its competitors in the Southern Corridor concept - Nabucco, TAP and ITGI - it goes furthest in terms of optimality for all the parties involved. The combined advantages of its size, scalability, usage of existing gas infrastructure in Europe and direction, promises a more reasonable economic and political value for the Shah Deniz Consortium, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Europe, while posing a bearable challenge to Russia. The SEEP seems to offer a greater value to a greater number of actors.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Azerbaijan

9. Rising Democracies and the Arab Awakening: Implications for Global Democracy and Human Rights

Author:
Ted Piccone and Emily Alinikoff
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
As the emerging global order takes shape, debate is growing more intense around the trajectory of the rising powers and what their ascendency to positions of regional and international influence means for the United States, its traditional allies, and global governance more broadly. Commentary about these rising powers— often referred to in a generic way as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) but actually encompassing a dozen or so countries largely represented in the G-20—ranges from alarmist to sanguine. Pessimists argue that China, with its impressive economic growth and increasingly global reach, is well-positioned to challenge the United States' role of global superpower and to weaken the commitment of other rising powers, and various international organizations, to liberal values. More optimistic analysts insist that the rise of middle powers, most of which are democracies of varying stripes, bodes well for the world: millions are being lifted out of poverty, rule of law is taking hold and the international system is bound to be a more inclusive, representative one.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Arabia

10. The Impact of Russia's 2010 Grain Export Ban

Author:
George Welton
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
One of the key factors in global food price volatility is the way that states react to disruptions in supply. There is a strong inclination for exporters to impose export bans in reaction to potential food price increases in their own country. This reaction, however, is a poor strategy for managing food prices at home and has a range of unintended consequences for the domestic and international economy. In general, export bans exacerbate problems created by interruptions in food production and may damage incentives to increase production at home long - term.
Topic:
Agriculture, Markets, and Food
Political Geography:
Russia

11. Marché, bureaucratie, formes de la domination politique: Une économie politique weberienne

Author:
François Bafoil
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
From a broad perspective, political economy analyses economic and political exchanges proper to some social groups, embedded in particular historical periods. The great innovation of Max Weber's analysis is to highlight the intersubjective orientations that support these exchanges and characterize a particular period of history. This study firstly compares different features between free market economy and the soviet-type economy. Secondly, it measures their difference in accordance to the "ideal type" of "market", bureaucracy" and "forms of domination". Finally, it insists on the particular "hybrid" figures of "charisma" and "patrimonial bureaucracy".
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Political Economy, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

12. Transit Troubles: Pipelines as a Source of Conflict

Author:
Paul Stevens
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Recent events between Russia and Ukraine at the start of 2009 and Russia and Georgia in 2008 have brought transit pipelines back into the media spotlight. Any reading of the history of transit oil and gas pipelines suggests a tendency to produce conflict and disagreement, often resulting in the cessation of throughput, sometimes for a short period and sometimes for longer. It is tempting to attribute this to bad political relations between neighbours. This is certainly part of the story, but also important is the nature of the 'transit terms' – tariffs and offtake terms – whereby transit countries are rewarded for allowing transit. Put simply, the trouble with transit pipelines has a significant economic basis.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Economics, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia

13. Indian FDI falls in global economic crisis: Indian multinationals tread cautiously

Author:
Jaya Prakash Pradhan
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Just over a year ago, outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from India seemed to be on a path of rapid and sustained growth. Its annual average growth of 98% during 2004–07 had been unprecedented , much ahead of OFDI growth from other emerging markets like China (74%), Malaysia (70%), Russia (53%), and the Republic of Korea (51%), although from a much lower base. Much of this recent growth had been fuelled by large-scale overseas acquisitions, however, and it faltered when the global financial crisis that started in late 2007 made financing acquisitions harder.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, China, South Asia, Malaysia, and Korea

14. Russian outward FDI and its policy context

Author:
Andrei Panibratov and Kalman Kalotay
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from Russia often surprises outside observers by its landmark deals. One of them was the purchase in September 2009 of a 55% stake in General Motors' German affiliate Opel by a consortium of the Canadian car maker Magna and the Russian state-owned bank Sberbank. The latter is the largest creditor of the Russian car maker GAZ, and may represent its commercial interests in the contract. With this deal, Russia has bought into the industrial heartland of the world economy and could potentially access more advanced technology. This acquisition hints at the growth of Russian OFDI in general, which has prospered despite fears in many host countries that the investors are subject to Russian political interference, a fear that recently announced Russian policy intentions may allay.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

15. Eurasian Energy Security

Author:
Jeffrey Mankoff
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
For two weeks in the freezing January of 2009, homes and businesses across Europe were left without heat, the result of a murky dispute over gas prices between Russia and Ukraine. When Moscow and Kiev failed to agree on a formula for calculating price and transit fees for the coming year, the gas simply stopped flowing. Europe, which gets a significant proportion of its gas through pipelines that transit both Russia and Ukraine, bore the brunt of this confrontation between the two feuding post-Soviet neighbors.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

16. Anatomy of a Fallacy: The Senlis Council and Narcotics in Afghanistan

Author:
Frédéric Grare
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Supplying the majority of the heroin consumed in Europe and nearly all consumed in Russia, Afghanistan's booming illicit drug market has not only entirely distorted the Afghan economy but also corrupted the country's nascent, fragile political system. While current norms regulating the production and traffic of illicit drugs have established the framework of an international prohibition regime, the policies associated with this regime have so far failed to stop or significantly slow the growing of Afghan opium. In 2005, in response to this situation, the Senlis Council, an international drug policy think tank, proposed the creation of a licensing system in Afghanistan which would allow the cultivation of opium for the production of essential medicines such as morphine and codeine. This system is intended to break the vicious circle of the drug economy by moving the opium trade into a legal system controlled by, and benefiting, the state. This paper adopts a critical view of the Senlis proposals, arguing that their underlying principles–economic, social and political–diverge only marginally from those underpinning previous approaches and have little potential for success under current political conditions. The paper concludes that, despite many imperfections, the current policies in place may be optimum given both Afghanistan's present situation and the structural problems inherent in the global war against drugs.
Topic:
Crime, International Law, and Markets
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, and Europe

17. Can America Still Lead in the Global Economy?

Author:
Lael Brainard and David Lipton
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
From the vantage point of 2008, some of the most memorable initiatives of U.S. international economic leadership—the Paris and Louvre Accords, the support for Poland and Russia after the fall of communism, the Uruguay Round, and the Mexican Financing Loan—seem like quaint reminders of a simpler time. In the coming years, the exercise of international economic leadership will surely prove more complex than in the past. The very success of the American vision of a global spread of vibrant and competitive markets has created a huge, rapidly integrating private economy of trade and finance much less amenable to guidance, let alone control, by governments. Unlike in diplomacy and defense, where non state actors are growing in importance but still a side show, in inter- national economics, households, corporations, labor unions, and non-profits are now the dominant players in most parts of the world. While they respond to national laws and policies, their interests are varied and their operations often span borders.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Paris, Poland, Uruguay, and Mexico