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1. Explaining the experience of political violence in Nigeria

Author:
Tunde A. Alabi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Violence has been part of Nigeria’s politics since before political independence. While there have been attempts to understand why political violence happens in the country, little emphasis has been placed on explanatory factors for political-violence victimisation. This study investigates the influence of socio-demographic characteristics, presence of security apparatus, partisanship, political participation, and social group membership on the experience of political violence in Nigeria and examines how the influence of these factors varies between Northern and Southern Nigeria – two regions with major social and cultural differences. The study analyses data from the seventh round of the Afrobarometer survey, which were collected in 2017 from 1,568 adults across the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria. Multiple linear regression models were fitted. Our analysis finds that about one in four persons has experienced at least one form of political violence. Living in the South, being young, being poor, living in an area with no police presence, being partisan, participating in politics, and being active in social groups increase the likelihood of political-violence victimisation. While women were more likely than men to experience political violence in the North, the reverse is the case in the South. Regional variation is also observed in the influence of political participation and the degree of the effect of party affiliation and social group membership.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Gender Issues, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

2. Nigeria’s 2023 Election: Democratic Development and Political Fragmentation

Author:
Sa'eed Husaini
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Nigerians will go to the polls on February 25 to elect a new president and members of the National Assembly. This marks the 7th in an unbroken sequence of presidential elections held since the country’s return to democracy in 1999. With President Muhammadu Buhari unable to compete in the election having served two full terms, the unpopular ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party will face a formidable challenge, not only from its traditional rival, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), but also from an unprecedented ‘third party’ challenger – a previously marginal but now surging Labour Party. This paper analyzes Nigeria’s 2023 election not only in the context of this unique partisan configuration, but also considering the wider set of factors that will, in all probability, influence the organization and the outcome of the election. These factors include the preparedness of the Independent National Electoral Commission and especially its capacity to properly deploy its newly acquired biometric and result transmission technologies. In addition, the analysis explores the ways in which the voting process and result will also reflect the limitations and risks imposed by Nigeria’s current climate of chronic insecurity, resulting from active armed militia and criminal groups operating across nearly all regions, but particularly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South-south. Insecurity has likewise coincided with rising elite polarization and the breakdown of the “zoning’ consensus ahead of the election, elevating the importance of identitarian political rhetoric in the campaigns. While insecurity appears likely to contribute to the trend of declining voter turnouts observed in previous elections, the apparent increase in political interest, particularly among young voters, as reflected in the spike in the collection of voters cards ahead of the election might mark a countervailing trend. Against this backdrop, the paper also considers the major parties, candidates, their political projects as well as their target constituencies. It finds that the parties articulated moderately divergent emphases while remaining largely consonant on the contentious economic questions of the period. It also considers possible elections scenarios that may result from the varying institutional and political characteristics of the main parties. Ultimately, it finds that the 2023 poll will represent the continued evolution of Nigerian electoral institutions and political participation in a context of lingering social division and insecurity.
Topic:
Development, Democracy, Political Parties, Presidential Elections, and Fragmentation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

3. Why Women Haven’t Been Successful in Nigerian Elections

Author:
Elor Nkereuwem
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Women’s representation in Nigerian politics has been on a downward slide since 2011, and the 2023 elections in Africa’s largest economy confirmed the expectations of poor outcomes for women. The number of women in Nigeria’s National Assembly has fallen by 19 percent compared to the last assembly, with women now occupying 3 percent of seats in the Senate and 4 percent in the House of Representatives.1 To understand why Nigerian women performed so poorly in the recent elections, the 2022 primary elections provided insight into the challenges and barriers faced by women aspirants and candidates. The results of the various parties’ primary elections highlight enduring limitations to women’s representation in competitive politics in Nigeria. The country ranks in the bottom ten globally in women’s representation in national parliaments, according to the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU).2 This challenge of representation persists in spite of the near parity of voter registration between men and women in past election cycles.3
Topic:
Elections, Women, Domestic Politics, and Representation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

4. Halting the Kleptocratic Capture of Local Government in Nigeria

Author:
Matthew T. Page and Abdul H. Wando
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Too often viewed as a monolithic state, Nigeria has complex subnational governance systems that can have outsized impacts on its trajectory. The state is covered with a vibrant but frayed political quilt, consisting of three layers: the federal government in Abuja, thirty-six state governments, and 774 local governments. Frequently overlooked, Nigeria’s local governments are disproportionately important; if they functioned well, they would be best positioned to meet people’s basic needs and to build their resilience to cope with everyday challenges. Matthew T. Page Matthew T. Page is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In reality, however, “no local government [in Nigeria] works for the people.”1 Instead, “every household is its own local government,” sourcing its basic needs—water, electricity, education, and healthcare—however it can.2 Exhausted by local government kleptocracy—a system in which those who govern steal from the governed—Nigerians understand that they must fend for themselves. While local government corruption is a global problem not unique to Nigeria, it is nevertheless crucial to address. It fuels democratic backsliding, communal conflict, and poverty. By hurting governance outcomes at the subnational level, local government corruption is quietly hobbling Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Domestic Politics, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

5. Profit shifting by multinational corporations: Evidence from transaction-level data in Nigeria

Author:
Bathusi Gabanatlhong, Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Paulinus Iyika, and Miroslav Palanský
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Research on profit shifting by multinational corporations in developing countries is limited due to a lack of data. In this paper we use, for the first time, novel administrative data on the transactions of multinational corporations operating in Nigeria vis-à-vis related parties in other jurisdictions. The data provides a breakdown of these intra-group transactions into seven categories: (1) tangible goods, (2) services and fees, (3) royalties, (4) interest, (5) dividends, (6) reimbursements, and (7) other. We develop a methodology that uses this data to identify which transactions are most often used by multinationals to shift profits out of Nigeria and estimate their relative importance. We find that profits reported in Nigeria are highly sensitive to the hypothetical tax that would be paid on a transaction’s value in the partner jurisdiction: a 1 per cent increase in the hypothetical tax on outgoing transactions is associated with a 0.28 per cent increase in reported profits in Nigeria. Payments for services and fees, royalties, and interest going from Nigerian companies to affiliates in low-tax countries are the most important channels of profit shifting in Nigeria. We argue that our approach can be used to inform low-cost policy interventions and increase audit efficiency with potentially strong effects on corporate income tax collection.
Topic:
Multinational Corporations, Profit, Transactions, and Tax Havens
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

6. Analysis of Cameroon – Nigeria Trade and Prospects for the African Continental Free Trade Area

Author:
Henri Kouam and Vera Kum
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Free trade between Cameroon and Nigeria is about reducing barriers to cross-border trade between the two countries by allowing traders on both sides of the spectrum to explore a larger market and private sector producers to expand their business. This policy brief examines the nature of Cameroon and Nigeria’s trade whilst illustrating the benefits of free trade on living standards, employment, and income inequality. It recommends that Cameroon and Nigeria cooperate on trade facilitation measures to increase the benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Free Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Cameroon

7. Rethinking Military Responses to Terrorism and Insurgency in Nigeria

Author:
Maurice Ogbonnaya
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Since 2003, terrorist insurgency in Nigeria has occasioned complex security and humanitarian crises, especially in the northeast region of the country. Boko Haram, a radical Islamist group from the region, has killed over 30,000 people and caused the displacement of more than 3 million others within the Lake Chad Basin region. Military responses by the Nigerian state and in collaboration with multilateral security agencies have achieved limited success. This paper not only questions the adequacy of military responses to terrorism, as a standalone approach, but it also advances the argument in the extant literature on the obsolescence of excessive militarization of counterterrorism operations as a security management strategy. It suggests the adoption of a more comprehensive and broad-based strategic approach. This is predicated on the limitations of purely military operations in counterterrorism, noting that military responses alone are structurally not designed to deal with the fundamental root causes of terrorism. In this regard, the paper advocates for a combination of military and other non-military counterterrorism approaches that seek to address the fundamental factors that give rise to terrorism.
Topic:
Terrorism, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Economic Inequality, and Exclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

8. Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain

Author:
Samik Adhikari, Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Nkechi Linda Ekeator
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The youth population within Nigeria is rapidly increasing, but despite their high levels of education and skills, many are struggling to find meaningful work opportunities at home. At the same time, Europe’s working-age population is declining, resulting in employers in these countries facing large and persistent skill shortages within a range of mid-skill professions. Despite the large benefits that facilitating migration between Nigeria and Europe could bring, and despite the overtures of both European governments and the European Union, few mutually beneficial migration partnerships exist. This report, a joint production between the World Bank and the Center for Global Development (CGD), outlines how the Global Skill Partnership model could be used to meet needs on both sides. It explores the growing youth unemployment rate in Nigeria, the increasing emigration pressure, and the structures that have been set up to manage this movement. It also explores the large skill shortages persistent within Europe, its migration management relationship with Africa, and the potential positive impacts of opening new legal migration pathways. It creates a framework with which to explore potential sectors and partner countries for the implementation of the Global Skill Partnership model, providing practical steps that governments can follow. And finally, it applies this framework to three sectors and partner countries: a health care partnership between Nigeria and the UK, a construction partnership between Nigeria and Germany, and an information and communications technology (ICT) partnership with various European states.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Labor Issues, Intellectual History, Immigration Policy, and Migrants
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Nigeria

9. Nigerian Confraternities To Conquer The World

Author:
Corentin Cohen
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
While the Nigerian brotherhoods have become increasingly prominent in the media given the criminal threat they are said to represent, they have not been the subject of any field research in Nigeria or Europe. This media coverage is fueling a growing confusion between the legal and police categorizations that are used to define these brotherhoods and the pan-African practices and discourses of solidarity and emancipation that they promote. The socio-historical approach developed in this study makes it possible to put into perspective the global expansion of confraternities since the 2000s. It offers another perspective on the role of these secret societies and their inclusion in political economies and different territories. In Europe, the Nigerian confraternities are first and foremost social institutions for the youth and the diasporas. They ensure the reproduction of the power of traditional and political elites abroad by capturing incomes linked to migration (remittances), and therefore play a key role in the production of a form of globalization of Nigerian society from below. They participate in the establishment of moral and social institutions from the south of Nigeria in Europe. Behind a discourse of empowerment and solidarity, the confraternities are thus a transnational network which perpetuates a conservative order, a social hierarchy and the inequalities which they help to naturalize.
Topic:
Globalization, Diaspora, Inequality, transnationalism, and Pan-Africanism
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

10. The Challenge of Transnational Salafi-Jihadi Terrorism in Africa

Author:
Matan Daniel
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Ifriqiya, Matan Daniel presents an overview of two of the major transnational jihadi groups operating in Africa, al-Shabaab and Boko Haram. He puts each group in its context, and shows how they represent new challenges for the continent and specifically in the regions where they are active. Salafi-jihadi groups (SJGs) have become a significant challenge and threat to global security and to the political stability of many countries during the past few decades. The emergence of al-Qaʿeda and the Islamic State, and the catastrophic consequences of their activity remain vivid in the memory of many. In recent years, as the resonance of al-Qaʿeda and the Islamic State's operations seems to be receding in the Middle East and Asia, Africa has become a rising sphere for the activity of SJGs. This article will elaborate on the issue of Salafi-jihadi activity in Africa, its transnational classification, and on two of the groups that represent it today, al-Shabaab and Boko Haram.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Salafism, Transnational Actors, Jihad, Boko Haram, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Somalia

11. Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Africa–EU Partnership on Migration and Mobility: A Developmental Perspective from West Africa

Author:
Aderanti Adepoju
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The far-ranging effects of COVID-19, and subsequent impacts on migration drivers, trends and governance, have already produced significant implications for the Africa–EU partnership on migration and mobility. The socio-economic consequences of the pandemic have been particularly deep in West Africa, with Nigeria being one of the most affected countries. The region is also one of the most relevant African contexts in terms of cross-border human mobility, with well-established migratory patterns both at a regional and inter-regional level. As COVID-19-induced restrictions and the related economic consequences continue to unfold, the partnership between the EU and the countries in Western Africa will have to recalibrate the balance between improving the livelihoods of local populations, fighting irregular migration and facilitating regular channels, so as to tap into the developmental potential of migration. While the current crisis presents new challenges for both Africa and Europe, the two parties would benefit from focusing their efforts on making migration part of the post-pandemic economic recovery and longer-term socioeconomic development. Paper prepared in the framework of the project “A New European Consensus on Asylum & Migration”.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Refugees, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Nigeria

12. Lake Chad: Another Protracted Crisis in the Sahel or a Regional Exception?

Author:
Bernardo Venturi and Luca Barana
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Common narratives on the Lake Chad Basin often focus on the nexus between conflict, development and climate change. In particular, the Lake’s situation attracts international coverage due to its shrinking size and the threat of multiple crises emanating from environmental degradation. This framework appears useful for donors and local governments, but the feedback loops among climate change, social marginalisation and conflict are not as straightforward. The problem is that the dominance of this analytical framework calls for policy response tools that are not always adequate. In the security field, the role of the Multinational Joint Task Force has been growing, but a stronger push in the sphere of governance is needed in order for it to gain legitimacy and improve its effectiveness on the ground. In the meantime, the Lake Chad Basin Commission has adopted some key policy tools to manage the natural resources in the area sustainably, but these initial steps must be followed by greater investment from Commission member states to advance implementation. An integrated regional approach remains the best way forward to tackle these complex dynamics. Paper prepared in the framework of the project “Water diplomacy and culture of sustainability. The Chad Basin”.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Water, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, Chad, Sahel, and Niger

13. Dissecting Aid Fragmentation: Development Goals and Levels of Analysis

Author:
Ruth Carlitz and Sebastian Ziaja
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Aid fragmentation is widely denounced, though recent studies suggest potential benefits. To reconcile these mixed findings, we make a case for studying differences across aid sectors and levels of analysis. Our cross-national time-series analysis of data from 141 countries suggests aid fragmentation promotes child survival and improves governance. However, just looking across countries has the potential to blur important within-country differences. We analyse subnational variation in Sierra Leone and Nigeria and find that the presence of more donors is associated with worse health outcomes, but better governance outcomes. This suggests that having more donors within a locality can be beneficial when they are working to improve the systems through which policies are implemented, but harmful when they target policy outcomes directly. A survey of Nigerian civil servants highlights potential mechanisms. Fragmentation in health aid may undermine civil servants’ morale, whereas diversity in governance aid can promote meritocratic behaviour.
Topic:
Governance, Development Aid, and Donors
Political Geography:
Africa, Sierra Leone, and Nigeria

14. Fake Civil Society: The Rise of Pro-Government NGOs in Nigeria

Author:
Matthew T. Page
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Nigeria’s dynamic and expansive civil society is one of its greatest strengths and is crucial to maintaining what democratic space still exists in the country. Yet its independence, outspokenness, and unwavering commitment to democracy, transparency, and human rights have long antagonized the kleptocratic, power-hungry—but also image-conscious—ruling elites. To help protect themselves from domestic pressure and outside scrutiny, Nigeria’s top powerbrokers have cultivated a new generation of pro-government non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Like the fake grassroots groups bankrolled by past military juntas, these surrogate organizations masquerade as authentic civil society groups, singing the praises of top officials and attacking their critics. A symptom of the country’s more fundamental political ills, Nigerian elites’ growing use of civil society surrogates should set off alarm bells both domestically and internationally. It is both corrupting and corruptive, compounding the country’s downward democratic trajectory. Like many countries in Africa—and, for that matter, elsewhere in the world—Nigeria has recently experienced democratic backsliding that threatens its long-term stability and prosperity. The rise of pro-government NGOs is both a cause and a consequence of this backsliding and must be addressed as part of any effort to arrest and reverse it.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, Democracy, and NGOs
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

15. #EndSARS Protest: Re-thinking Nigerian Youth and Government Policies

Author:
Chinyere Stella Okunna
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
If any countries in the world should take youths and youth development seriously, Nigeria should be high on the list of such countries – Nigeria has one of the largest youth populations in the world, with the youth making up almost 34% (33.65%) of the country’s huge population of more than 200 million people. One fundamental way of demonstrating this seriousness is through the enactment and serious implementation of meaningful and effective youth policies, as well as the creation of an enabling environment for youth development. From virtually every indication, government has failed abysmally over the years in recent times to enthrone a liveable society as a conducive environment for effectively implementing its well-crafted youth policies and programmes, thus wreaking havoc on youth development. For how long should this terrible scenario continue? Something definitely needs to be done by the government, by the youth themselves, by non-governmental bodies made up of well-meaning Nigerians, and by the international community (if need be) – and the time to do this ‘something’ about this situation is NOW
Topic:
Education, Youth, Protests, Police, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

16. The Origins of Boko Haram—And Why It Matters

Author:
Audu Bulama Bukarti
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Nigeria’s population of an estimated 200 million people is plagued by an alarming level of violence, which is driven by a toxic mix of brutal extremist groups, criminal gangs and a cropland crisis. These feed into one another, and each is little understood. A key player in the present carnage is Boko Haram, a notorious organization which claims to fight in defense of Islam. Over the last decade from 2009-2019, Boko Haram has waged a campaign of mass violence and wrought havoc in Africa’s Lake Chad region, which comprises northern Nigeria, southeastern Niger, far-northern Cameroon and western Chad. The Boko Haram movement has killed a conservative estimate of 18,000 people, displaced millions, and caused a large-scale humanitarian crisis. In 2014, it was recorded as the world’s deadliest terror group, killing 6,600 in that year alone. Boko Haram is particularly notorious for its violence against children. Indeed, the movement was first catapulted into the attention of western media in April 2014 by its kidnapping of 276 girls from their school dormitory in Chibok village, north-eastern Nigeria. It uses girls as sexual and domestic slaves and as human bombs, targeting civilian locations including markets, hospitals, IDP camps and places of worship. It has also conscripted thousands of boys into its army and forces them to kill in order to keep themselves alive. Boko Haram has established itself as a formidable force and, judging from security force fatalities of 750 in 2019 which is the highest since the violence began, it now appears to be stronger than ever.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Islamism, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

17. Dubai Property: An Oasis for Nigeria’s Corrupt Political Elites

Author:
Matthew Page
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
For politically exposed persons (PEPs) with ill-gotten wealth, Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is an alluring destination for investing their gains. Although certainly not the only place to stash money, Dubai—dubbed the commercial capital of the Middle East—exercises minimal oversight and has few legal or logistical obstacles to transferring large amounts of cash or purchasing property. PEPs, defined as individuals who are or have been entrusted with a prominent public function, are at higher risk of involvement in unlawful activity due to their positions of influence and access to assets.1 In some cases, government officials and associates who succumb to the temptation become front-page news, but in many other cases, their activities go undetected or uncorroborated, despite the efforts of local authorities and intergovernmental bodies such as the Financial Action Task Force. As a result, billions of dollars are siphoned away to the detriment of both prosperous and struggling economies and societies. The case of Nigeria—home to Africa’s largest economy and the world’s seventh most populous country—offers valuable insights into this phenomenon.2 For Nigerian PEPs in particular, Dubai is an accessible oasis far away from the political drama in their capital, Abuja, or the hustle and bustle of their biggest city, Lagos. But a dearth of specific information about Nigerian PEPs’ property in Dubai has long precluded a deeper analysis of the share of illicit financial outflows from Nigeria; that is, until 2016, when the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (now known as C4ADS) acquired the data of a private database of Dubai real estate information (dubbed the “Sandcastles” data). At least 800 properties were found to have links to Nigerian PEPs or their family members, associates, and suspected proxies. With such information and continued monitoring, Nigerian and Emirati authorities and national and international actors could ramp up their scrutiny on high-end property transactions involving Nigerian elites to ensure that these purchases are not being made with pilfered public funds. The two countries could also deepen bilateral law enforcement cooperation by sharing information and assisting investigations more responsively and routinely. For their part, Western governments, the United Nations, and other international organizations could press the UAE to make its property and corporate records more transparent.
Topic:
Corruption, Economy, Financial Crimes, Elites, and Property
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, Dubai, and Gulf Nations

18. Equipping the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation for the Low-Carbon Transition How Are Other National Oil Companies Adapting?

Author:
Perrine Toledano
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation’s (NNPC) persistent governance challenges have both hampered Nigeria’s oil sector development and deprived the country of public resources. The oil, climate, and COVID-19 crises and the ramp-up of the low-carbon transition exacerbate this reality, with the national oil company (NOC) delivering sub-optimal returns to its stakeholders. Other NOCs have taken meaningful steps to become players in the low-carbon energy transition domestically or in­ternationally—for example, Sau­di Arabia’s Saudi Aramco, Norway’s Equinor, Brazil’s Petrobras, Malaysia’s Petronas, and Algeria’s Sonatrach. These NOCs can serve as sources of inspiration for NNPC. These five NOCs have also undergone reforms of various aspects of their corporate governance. Even if not always sufficient, these reforms position them to be players of the energy transition. The current crisis provides a unique opportunity and political momentum for the Nigerian government and legislature to reconsider NNPC’s role in the context of the energy transition and implement profound reform of the company. While it is an incredible policy and political challenge, other NOCs are showing the way, and policy guidance is already out there to guide countries and companies.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, Green Technology, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

19. The Impact of COVID-19 on Democratic Elections in Africa

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
Almost all African countries rolled out significant measure in response to Covid-19. From border closures through to the use of personal protective equipment (PPEs) to restricted gatherings and contact tracing, a combination of diverse public health safety strategies was employed. These same strategies nonetheless would make preparations toward holding smooth and timely elections cumbersome. Ghana’s electoral commissioner announced an indefinite postponement of its voter registration exercise, it is still in consultation with stakeholders on carrying out the exercise with only six months to its presidential and parliamentary elections if the timeline stays the same. Niger also suspended its voter registration exercise; Ethiopia postponed its elections entirely. Other countries that have had some forms of election postponement include Zimbabwe, Nigeria and Kenya.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Ghana

20. Wole Soyinka: Writing and Speaking Peace

Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The state, one of Nigeria’s major agricultural hubs, has experienced in- cessant attacks by herdsmen ostensibly seeking grazing grounds for their cattle. At a crowded early-morning meeting with the state governor, Sam- uel Ortom, reporters and members of civil society groups, Soyinka spoke with his signature directness.42 He not only pronounced the killings by the herdsmen an act of ethnic cleansing, he also accused President Muham- madu Buhari of abdicating his responsibility to act. And he contended that the time had come to invite the international community to intervene in the festering crisis. He was clear what the international mandate ought to be: to reverse the forcible removal of farmers from their land and end the oc- cupation by the invading herdsmen. The vehemence of his criticism of Bu- hari’s administration was significant. Although grudging, Soyinka’s support of Buhari as a candidate in the 2015 presidential election had scandalized many of the laureate’s fans. For me, the trip to Makurdi was a fitting finale. It showcased Soyinka in his vocation and constituency as both an artist-intellectual and a voice of con- science—a tireless advocate for the restorative balm of justice. As Soyinka told me, in what seemed like a parting shot, “When a community is careless and doesn’t nip in the bud, in time, those with [a] power obsession, with that need to dominate, then they find themselves enslaved. Belatedly they real- ize it, and then they try to struggle out of the net that has been spun around them.”43 At its best, his work has been to urge us all to vigilance, resistance, and a commitment to justice.
Topic:
Political Activism, Language, Peace, and Free Speech
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

21. The Challenges of Reintegration

Author:
Oluwatoyin Oluwaniyi
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War shifted the focus from international wars between states to internal wars with immense consequences for unarmed civilians, such as occurred in the African countries of Angola, Burundi, Central Afri- can Republic (CAR), Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Liberia, So- malia, and Sudan, to mention a few. The nature of these wars makes these countries susceptible to further wars. To avoid such conflict traps, peace- building measures such as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) have been introduced to pave the way for an easier transition from conflict to peace, by minimizing risks from ex-combatants as possible spoil- ers and, restoring hope and security to victims of conflict while developing their communities. Evidence from countries that have utilized DDR, such as Angola, DRC, So- malia, and Liberia, suggests that while disarmament and demobilization may be essential, reintegration remains the most critical component of post-conflict peace and security.3 Debate continues over the notion that while disarmament and demobilization entail short-term security opera- tions, they do not by themselves bring sustainable benefits; reintegration focuses on extensive long-term development efforts that are critical to avoiding the conflict trap and sustaining peace in the long run. Short-term security does not bring about sustainable benefits unless it is coordinated with long-term community development strategies. Reintegration address- es the economic and social transformation of both ex-combatants and the overall communities they are joining, yet the full implementation of this pro- cess is generally ignored in DDR programs in post-conflict countries. This paper focuses on the extent of implementation of the reintegration phase in the Niger Delta region’s post-conflict (usually called post-amnesty) period and its impact on peace, security, and development in the region. The Nigerian federal government embraced the post-amnesty DDR concept in June 2009 to set the pace for gradual resolution of the violence that had embroiled the region for almost a decade. During the execution of the disar- mament and demobilization phases, the Niger Delta region recorded initial progress in peace and security demonstrated by an increase in oil produc- tion from an estimated 700 barrels per day (bpd) to an estimated 2,500 bpd in early 2010. However, the implementation of the reintegration phase has raised several questions due to the region’s relapse into violence and crime. There is, therefore, a need to investigate the factors working against suc- cessful implementation of the reintegration process. A critical analysis of the process will enhance the understanding of schol- ars and policymakers alike on what constitutes sustainable reintegration and at the same time, how it may be achieved in post-conflict societies. The focus on reintegration is meant to facilitate a specific consideration of its importance as the point of intersection between short- and long-term peacebuilding processes.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Peace, Integration, and Reintegration
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

22. Africa’s Unresolved Conflicts a Key Driver of Food Insecurity

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Conflict is a central factor in the geography of Africa’s food insecurity. The acuteness of this insecurity deepens the longer a conflict continues.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Burundi, South Sudan, Cameroon, and Central African Republic

23. Insecurity, Forced Migration, And Internally Displaced Persons along the Cameroon-Nigeria Border

Author:
Primus Fonkeng
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
The Cameroon-Nigeria border is plagued with insecurity challenges and serious threats to the border communities. Following the Boko Haram attacks, the counter-offensive by the Cameroonian and Nigerian armed forces, and the attacks between the Southern Cameroons separatists and the Cameroonian forces as a result of the Anglophone Crisis, the population along the Cameroon-Nigeria border were forced to abandon their towns and villages into neighboring communities. This forcedmigration has orchestrated the influx of refugees into both Cameroon and Nigeria, and internal displacement of many people. This article traces the complex insecurity situation that prompted forced migration and massive internal displacement of populations which paralyzed border activities. The study adopts the qualitative method and the descriptive and analytical approaches to assess the complex insecurity situations that resulted from the activities of the Boko Haram Terrorist Group and the Anglophone Crisis. The study recommends that, any peace process that ignores the needs and roles of the border communities is unnatural, and therefore inherently unstable. The contention here is that Cameroon and Nigeria need to cooperate for effectiveness in border policy with greater attention to the endeavors of border communities.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, International Security, Borders, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Nigeria and Cameroon

24. Migration and the Dislocation of Nigeria’s Social Fabric: The Governance Question

Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
In recent years, the trend of irregular flow of persons across national borders has become a matter of grave concern within the global community. Given that the drivers of migration have continued to escalate, there are slim chances that this trend would abate; hence, there is every need for its interrogation. The irregular flow of persons across national borders has the capacity to create distortions in the social fabric of affected countries. To what extent does migration lead to the dislocation of Nigeria’s social fabric? What role does governance play in either worsening the trend or tackling migration-related problems? By adopting the qualitative method that relies primarily on documentary evidence and content analysis for generating and analyzing data, this paper examines the extent to which migration leads to the dislocation of Nigeria’s social fabrics. The paper also tries to establish not only how poor governance has contributed in generating migration-related problems but also the role of governance in managing it. The working assumption here is that the irregular flow of persons across national borders has dislocated Nigeria’s social fabric in so many ways and that bad governance is at the root of the contributory factors that drive irregular migration.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Governance, Social Cohesion, Community, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

25. Nomadic Pastoralism and Human Security: Towards a Collective Action against Herders-Farmers Crisis in Nigeria

Author:
Chukwuemeka Enyiazu and Chikodiri Nwangwu
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
Land use is a fundamental agrarian question which remains central to the economic survival of humanity, especially in Africa. The limited access to land in most African social formations has engendered a fierce competition between non-agricultural user groups and their agricultural counterparts, on the one hand, and among various agricultural user groups, on the other. The two major groups of agricultural land users are nomadic pastoralists and sedentary peasant farmers. As a predominantly agrarian nation, more than half of Nigeria’s workforce is engaged in farming. Nonetheless, the internecine conflict between these two groups of agro-land users, which continues to acquire ethnic, religious and political tinge, has grave implications for human security in the country. Explanation of the conflict between nomadic pastoralists and sedentary farmers has centred on climate change, population growth, and insecurity. However, the transnational character of this conflict has not received adequate scholarly attention. Despite the existence of regional frameworks like the ECOWAS Transhumance Protocol, there is a dearth of knowledge on how these regional efforts could be leveraged by the Nigerian government in order to contain the harmful impacts of transhumant pastoralism in the country. Using the regional security complex theory, this paper argues that networking of relevant security agencies, regional bodies and other stakeholders, including civil society organisations, is the panacea for tackling the tension-soaked relationship between these land users.
Topic:
Agriculture, Ethnic Conflict, Pastoralism, Armed Conflict, Farming, and Nomad
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

26. Is Nigeria Experiencing a Learning Crisis: New Evidence from Curriculum-based Learning Assessment

Author:
Adedeji Adeniran, Joseph Ishaku, and Lateef Olawale Akanni
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
The massive expansion of education access throughout the world in the past few decades signalled a positive progress for global development through human capital accumulation. However, this same growth highlighted the substantial deficiency in the learning that schools are unable to deliver to the children that pass through them. In short, massive expansion in schooling has not delivered quality education, a situation that United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO, 2013) termed a global “learning crisis”. The disconnect between schooling and learning in the 21st Century also informed the global aspiration to improve learning outcomes, as captured in SDG 4. With the global attention now centered on SDG implementation, policymakers and researchers are focused on data for measuring learning outcomes. Measuring performance against SDG 4 entails assessing the extent to which targets set on inclusive and quality of education have been met. However, as the 2017 Goalkeepers Report shows, there is notable conceptual problem and data gap in measuring the quality of education (see also Unterhalter, 2019). On the conceptual level, there is lack of consensus on the appropriate indicator of quality education. Education quality is a multidimensional concept and encompasses educational inputs, processes and learning outcomes. This concern is apparent even in the SDG system, particularly, in the Tier Classification of Global SDG indicators developed by the Inter-agency and Expert Group on SDG Indicators (IAEG-SDGs). This means that additional work is needed to establish methodology and create an internationally comparable statistic (UN Statistical Commission, 2018).
Topic:
Economics, Education, and Children
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

27. The Subnational Political Resource Curse: Allocations, Internally Generated Revenue and Spending Priorities in Nigeria

Author:
Toluwanimi Segun
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
Oil wealth comes with a caveat-depend on it excessively and be buffeted by oil market volatility. The 2014 oil price crash revealed that Nigeria did not heed this warning. The country’s expenditure forecasts are based on an assumed oil price so that the government was caught flatfooted when the crash began around June. Under duress, public officials eventually revealed how financially irresponsible governance was during the years of plenty: after a tussle with the President, State Governors shared oil profits stowed in a “rainy day” account called the Excess Crude Account (ECA) amongst themselves; they allegedly also hindered the growth of the country’s Sovereign Wealth Fund. It does not seem like those hard-won funds were spent in the public’s interest-reports detailing several state governments’ inability to fund public investments and pay public servants’ salaries have continued to arise into 2018.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Oil, Natural Resources, Revenue Management, and Public Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

28. Sustainability Implications of Nigeria's Water Use Patterns

Author:
Anointing Ogie Momoh
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
Nigeria has significant renewable water resources; however, the current reality is that most of it is poorly utilized and managed, thus raising important sustainability questions. There are several concerns associated with the water situation in the country such as pollution, flooding, poor drainage infrastructure, etc. All these have dire water-poverty, socio-economic, health and livelihood implications for Nigerians. This discussion paper identifies the absence of a properly functioning regulatory regime in Nigeria’s Water Resources sector – with the ensuing pattern of open-access water use in the country – as a fundamental issue that needs to be addressed. It briefly maps out some specifics of the current situation within Nigeria’s Water Resources sector. Utilising a simple steady-state economic framework that shows the implications of open access use of natural resources, it goes on to explain the sustainability implications of the current water resource use-patterns in Nigeria. Drawing on the points raised, the paper concludes with a few high-level recommendations for water sustainability in Nigeria.
Topic:
Economics, Natural Resources, Water, Renewable Energy, Sustainability, and Public Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

29. "The Ambivalence of the Sacred": Religion, Conflict Resolution, and Peacebuilding in Northern Nigeria, 2000–2015

Author:
Jacinta Chimaka Nwaka
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Nigeria is one of a few African countries where religion has largely been associated with conflict. The dominance of the two major Abrahamic reli- gions—Islam and Christianity—on each side of the divide has made religion one of the more potent factors in the contention for political, economic, and identity spaces in the country. Although the use of religion for identity con- struction, power legitimization, and economic achievement characterized the colonial and immediate post-colonial period, it was not until the late 1970s that religion became highly disruptive, with the onset of religious vi- olence into the country.1 While these eruptions appeared to be restricted to the core northern cities, the re-democratization process associated with the post-Cold War period generated new tensions as politicians mobilized group identities for contested positions. Thus, other northern Nigerian cities that were hitherto known for peace became susceptible to violence. It was in the wake of this development that Plateau and Kaduna states became the epicenter of violent clashes of a religious nature. Various strategies have been adopted by both governmental and non-governmental bodies to ad- dress these conflicts. While some of them have been successful interven- tions, others have failed to stem the tide of conflict. Can religion, which is claimed to be a factor in these conflicts, become part of the solution? The current study seeks to identify the role(s) of faith-based actors in conflict resolution and peacebuilding in Plateau and Kaduna States of Northern Ni- geria between 2000 and 2015. The aim is to explain the conditions that have accounted for the success or failure of their intervention. Beginning with Johnston and Sampson, who identified religion as a missing dimension in statecraft, various authors have highlighted numerous ways through which religious actors can have a positive influence on the peace process.2 According to Johnston and Sampson and Appleby, religious actors are better positioned than politicians to reach out to local and regional ac- tors.3 This is because they are often believed to be in possession of moral and emotional qualifications as well as professional approaches that com- mand the respect and confidence of the parties to a conflict. In his study of religious actors in peace process, Weingardt believes that while all actors involved in conflict resolution and peacebuilding ideally have these qual- ities, they are more common with religious actors.4 He further explained the three dimensions of the confidence and trust which faith-based actors enjoy from the conflict parties. The existence of religious thinking in all cul- tures can be used to justify the call for peace and non-violence. Religious actors are often seen as those who go beyond mere resolution of conflict to address issues of morality, reconciliation, forgiveness, and responsibility, which underlie conflict resolution and are often perceived as those moti- vated by selfless interest. Though these may be at the level of perception rather than reality, Weingardt is of the opinion that such perceptions are informed by the respect generally accorded to religion and religious val- ues.5 The importance of legitimacy and leverage was equally underscored by Aroua and Bercovitch and Kadayici-Orellana, who assert that religious leaders with deep understanding of religious beliefs and ideals are better, placed to promote inter-religious dialogue by transferring codes from one value system to the other.6 In some cases, their influence over conflicting parties, or at least one of them, may become the basis for opening a com- munication channel. Other scholars further emphasize the role of religious organizations in pro- moting peace. According to Smock, they are very effective in delivering aid and development projects, which is considered an important aspect of the peace process.7 Their effectiveness, as observed by Bouta, Kadayici-Orel- lana and Abu-Nimer derives not only from the trust and confidence they command, but also because faith communities are less expensive, having with them, in most cases, a network of volunteers who may not just be committed but who are also ready to make enormous sacrifices informed by their religious beliefs and values.8 Although aid and development are at the pragmatic level, they help immeasurably in addressing the root causes of conflict.9 In addition to what religious actors can do, available literature points to several conflicts that have been mediated by faith-based actors. Among the outstanding cases are: the successful mediation in Mozam- bique by the Rome-based Community of Saint Egido, which helped to end the country’s civil war; and the Lome Peace Agreement of 1999 through the instrumentality of the Inter-Religious Council of Sierra Leone; (2001).10 There have also been cases where mediation by religious organizations in peace processes was not successful. For example, Saint Egido failed in its effort to resolve the conflicts in Algeria, Burundi, and the Democratic Re- public of Congo.11 Religious leaders in Liberia were unsuccessful in their attempts to intervene in the country’s first civil war.12 In the widespread pro- tests and riots that followed the cartoon published by a Danish newspaper, Jyllands-Posten, seen as depicting Prophet Mohammed as a terrorist in 2005, an attempt by the Catholic Relief Services (CRS) to initiate interreli- gious dialogue in Maiduguri also failed. Despite ever-growing interest in the field of faith-based actors in peace- building, one crucial question has remained unanswered: under which con- ditions can religion contribute to peace? Bercovitch has called attention to the need to go beyond the discussion of what success in conflict interven- tion means or may mean to understand the factors that could potentially contribute to such success. This view was re-echoed by Susan Hayward, who noted that “there is a pressing need for greater monitoring and eval- uation of religious peacebuilding work...to understand better which inter- ventions led by whom, and in which situation have the greater effect.”13 The need to establish the constructive role of religion in the peace process has become crucial in the present era, when those involved in the negotiation and peacebuilding processes continue to marginalize religious actors, often considering them to have no constructive role.14 This study is located within this existing scholarship. It uses data from field-based primary sources in qualitative research - in-depth interview (IDI), Focused Group Discussion (FGD), official documents and extant secondary source materials, to explore the conditions that explain the successful or failed interventions of faith- based actors in three outstanding conflicts in Plateau and Kaduna States namely: the Jos and Yelwa conflicts in Plateau State and the Kaduna conflict in Kaduna State between 2000 and 2015.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Religion, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Nigeria and Africa

30. The Challenges of Reintegration in Post-Conflict Peacebuilding: The Case of Nigeria’s Niger Delta

Author:
Oluwatoyin Oluwaniyi
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War shifted the focus from international wars between states to internal wars with immense consequences for unarmed civilians, such as occurred in the African countries of Angola, Burundi, Central Afri- can Republic (CAR), Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Liberia, So- malia, and Sudan, to mention a few.1 The nature of these wars makes these countries susceptible to further wars. To avoid such conflict traps, peace- building measures such as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) have been introduced to pave the way for an easier transition from conflict to peace, by minimizing risks from ex-combatants as possible spoil- ers and, restoring hope and security to victims of conflict while developing their communities.2 Evidence from countries that have utilized DDR, such as Angola, DRC, So- malia, and Liberia, suggests that while disarmament and demobilization may be essential, reintegration remains the most critical component of post-conflict peace and security.3 Debate continues over the notion that while disarmament and demobilization entail short-term security opera- tions, they do not by themselves bring sustainable benefits; reintegration focuses on extensive long-term development efforts that are critical to avoiding the conflict trap and sustaining peace in the long run. Short-term security does not bring about sustainable benefits unless it is coordinated with long-term community development strategies. Reintegration address- es the economic and social transformation of both ex-combatants and the overall communities they are joining, yet the full implementation of this pro- cess is generally ignored in DDR programs in post-conflict countries. This paper focuses on the extent of implementation of the reintegration phase in the Niger Delta region’s post-conflict (usually called post-amnesty) period and its impact on peace, security, and development in the region. The Nigerian federal government embraced the post-amnesty DDR concept in June 2009 to set the pace for gradual resolution of the violence that had embroiled the region for almost a decade. During the execution of the disar- mament and demobilization phases, the Niger Delta region recorded initial progress in peace and security demonstrated by an increase in oil produc- tion from an estimated 700 barrels per day (bpd) to an estimated 2,500 bpd in early 2010. However, the implementation of the reintegration phase has raised several questions due to the region’s relapse into violence and crime. There is, therefore, a need to investigate the factors working against suc- cessful implementation of the reintegration process. A critical analysis of the process will enhance the understanding of schol- ars and policymakers alike on what constitutes sustainable reintegration and at the same time, how it may be achieved in post-conflict societies. The focus on reintegration is meant to facilitate a specific consideration of its importance as the point of intersection between short- and long-term peacebuilding processes.
Topic:
Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

31. Cohesive Institutions and Political Violence

Author:
Thomas Fetzer and Stephan Kyburz
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Can institutionalized transfers of resource rents be a source of civil conflict? Are cohesive institutions better at managing conflicts over distribution? We exploit exogenous variation in revenue disbursements to local governments and use new data on local democratic institutions in Nigeria to answer these questions. There is a strong link between rents and conflict far away from the location of the resource. Conflict over distribution is highly organized, involving political militias, and concentrated in the extent to which local governments are non-cohesive. Democratically elected local governments significantly weaken the causal link between rents and political violence. Elections produce more cohesive institutions, and vastly limit the extent to which distributional conflict between groups breaks out following shocks to the rents. Throughout, we confirm these findings using individual level survey data.
Topic:
Civil Society, Natural Resources, Military Affairs, Conflict, Violence, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

32. Strategies of Boko Haram and IPOB in Nigeria’s Postcolonial Context: A Critique

Author:
Rowland Chukwuma Okoli
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
The main objective of the study is to examine how the post-colonial character of the Nigerian state engendered the emergence and strategies of IPOB and Boko Haram in the state. The study is anchored on the postcolonial state theory. Qualitative (documentary) method was employed for data collection, while qualitative-descriptive method of analysis was adopted. The paper contends that both Boko Haram and IPOB are manifestations of the dissatisfactions arising from the inadequacies of the Westphalian state system imposed on the kingdoms, empires and principalities which hitherto existed in the area today known as Nigeria. Both Boko Haram and IPOB extensively adopted anti-state propaganda targeted at disparaging the postcolonial Nigerian state. Hence, while Boko Haram’s propaganda launch onslaught against the colonial education system, the IPOB proselytize secession as a panacea to lopsided federal structure tilting in favour of the North and responsible for economic and political ‘marginalization’ of the Igbo ethnic group. The central thesis of this study is that contradictions like insurgency and separatist movements are recurring features of postcolonial African states such as Nigeria. The study recommends inter alia that peace-building in Nigeria should address economic and political marginalization which engenders dissatisfaction among the masses, while access to education by youths should be enhanced.
Topic:
Terrorism, Nation-State, Militant Islam, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

33. Ako-na-Uche versus Nzogbu-nzogbu: Interrogating the Rupture between Igbo Elite and their Lumpen in Igbo Nationalism

Author:
Chikodiri Nwangwu
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
Post-war Igbo ethno-nationalism has witnessed two distinct but interconnected generations. Both of them emerged as a response to the ineffective and objectionable implementation of post-war peace-building initiatives as well as the progressive victimisation of the Igbo since the end of the Nigerian Civil War in 1970. While the first generation is championed and dominated by conservative Igbo petty bourgeoisie, the second is revolutionary and commonly associated with populist youth-led lumpen neo-Biafran separatist movements. In line with the philosophy of akona-uche, the former seeks mainstream inclusivism through democratic and non-confrontational approach in its response to the perceived widespread victimisation of the Igbo. On the contrary, the latter is inspired by the principle of nzogbu-nzogbu and seeks radical separatism as the most sustainable solution to the Igbo question in Nigeria. The reinvention of the nzogbu-nzogbu approach to Igbo nationalism in 1999 has attracted substantial public and scholarly attention. However, extant studies are mainly awash with explanations of the recurrent agitation for Biafra. There has not been any systematic investigation of how the fissure between the lumpen and aristocrats (Oha-na-Eze) of Igbo extraction undermines the pursuit of Igbo nationalism. Using the Marxist social class analysis, the study found that the Igbo question will remain a wild goose chase until the contradictions in the material conditions of the Igbo petty bourgeoisie and their masses are conscientiously harmonised.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Nationalism, Peacekeeping, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

34. The Challenges of Nationhood and State-building in Nigeria’s “Fourth” Republic

Author:
Elias Chukwuemeka Ngwu and Michael E. Nwokedi
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
Nigeria’s eighteen years of civilian rule has been dotted with incessant ethno-nationalist agitations which have often threatened the peace and tranquillity of the Nigerian state and the orderly conduct of public and private businesses. The Nigerian state has in turn often responded to these agitations through an admixture of appeasements and the application of force in what is commonly referred to as the carrot and stick approach. While the state has largely been successful in containing such agitations, and ultimately bringing them within the bounds of order, two of such on-going agitations – the Boko Haram insurgency in the Northeast and the Biafra separatist agitations in the Southeast – appear to have so far defied the military prowess and the strategic ingenuity of the Nigerian state. Both also standout, whereas earlier agitations were merely targeted at redressing certain identified grievances. These lay claim to the very soul of the Nigerian state; that is, the inviolability of Nigeria’s unity and corporate existence. Whereas several explanations have been offered for the persistence of these conflicts, this paper seeks to further evaluate their rising intractability within the wider context of the overall tension between nationhood and state-building. The paper relies on primary and secondary data derived from documents and through interviews. They will be analysed using logical inferences.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Nationalism, Sectarian violence, Violence, Peace, and State Building
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

35. Inter-Security Agency Rivalry as an Impediment to National Counter Terrorism Strategy (NACTEST)

Author:
Okechukwu Innocent Eme
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
The emergence of Boko Haram as a terrorist group in Nigeria considerably changed the country’s security milieu. From a quiet religious group in the early 2000s, the group had risen in 2015 to become the deadliest terrorist group. As a security challenge, however, the Government’s counter terrorism policy appears unsuccessful. This article reveals flaws in the policy directions, noting that Government’s military-centric approach was not guided by any documented national strategy until the release of National Counter Terrorism Strategy (NACTEST) in 2014 ostensibly coordinated by the Office of the National Security Advisor (ONSA). Even at this, NACTEST is observed to be fraught with gaps that question its suitability as a counter-terrorism policy document for Nigeria. Among the observed policy gaps include the animosity between and among Nigeria’s security agencies and their unwillingness to share intelligence hampering effort at effectively combating the Boko Haram insurgency in the country’s North-east. This is an exploratory study aimed at probing the seeming perennial conflicts between and amongst the various security agencies in Nigeria with a view to creating a new path to inculcating tolerance for enhanced synergy towards optimal service delivery and national security. To this end, data were generated from both primary and secondary sources. The study concluded by recommending that there is the need for intensive collaboration amongst the relevant security agencies in Nigeria, as a tonic for achieving national security.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Religion, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Militant Islam, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

36. Evaluating Food Crop Sector Performance in Nigeria (1999-2016)

Author:
Nathaniel E. Urama
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
This study evaluates the performance of food crop sector in Nigeria from 1999-2016. The statistics show that Nigerian is having food insecurity problem: - very low value of food production per capita; low and declining average dietary energy supply adequacy; very high variability in per capita food production and supply, and a high depth of food deficit that has been on the increase since 2006. The result also shows that agriculture’s contribution to Nigerian GDP has consistently declined from 37.5 percent in 2002 to 21.2 percent in 2016, and that food crop production declined from over 34 percent of the GDP in 2002 to 18.6 percent in 2016. Due to this high depth of food deficit, over 14 million people in the country are undernourished, and this has been increasing geometrically since 2005. Also, more than six million of her under-five children are stunted, and the consumer price of foods has been high and rising. Compared to other countries, there has not been any significant improvement in reducing the depth of food deficit in the Nigeria.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Food Security, Hunger, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

37. The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy and Capital Control in Nigeria

Author:
Nathaniel E. Urama and Emeka Charles Iloh
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
This paper examines the primary cause of the exchange rate management failure in Nigeria by evaluating the motivating factor for these changes and reviewing the role of politics and interest group in the Nigerian exchange rate management. The findings show that politics, institutional incentives, and group interest mostly play a significant role in Nigeria’s exchange rate regime determination, as evidenced in the habit of changing the exchange rate system by almost all the political regimes that have existed in the country. More so, the changes are attributed to factors such as different parties and regimes having different macroeconomic preferences, incumbents’ efforts to increase their re-election prospects, and by interest groups that lobby for strong or weak currencies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Political Economy, Exchange Rate Policy, Macroeconomics, Currency, and Capital Controls
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

38. Finance and Firm Productivity in Africa: Background Study from World Bank Enterprise Survey Data

Author:
Grace Onubedo and Kunle Muhammed Yusuf
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
Access to finance has been considered to be one of the important factors in influencing firms’ real activities and in promoting aggregates. However, literature on the relationship between finance and firm-level productivity is almost non-existent for African countries. This paper fills this gap by using cross-sectional firm-level data to estimate the effect of access to finance on labour productivity, total factor productivity (TFP), and the stochastic frontier trans-log model. This study also estimates an instrumental variable model – two-stage least square estimator to address potential endogeneity bias between access to credit and firms’ productivity. The results obtained show that the lack of access to finance, especially overdraft facilities negatively affects the productivity of firms in Africa. Also, smaller firms and sole-proprietorships are mostly affected because they have less access to finance. This study suggests that the development of a balanced financial system should be of topmost priority to policy makers. This ensures that more finance is channelled towards those firms whose productivity depends heavily on the availability of finance irrespective of their characteristics. This would result in firms increasing their investments in productivity-enhancing activities, which would benefit long-term economic growth.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Developments, Economic Growth, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

39. The Challenges of Reintegration in Post-Conflict Peacebuilding: The Case of Nigeria’s Niger Delta

Author:
Oluwatoyin Oluwaniyi
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War shifted the focus from international wars between states to internal wars with immense consequences for unarmed civilians, such as occurred in the African countries of Angola, Burundi, Central Afri- can Republic (CAR), Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Liberia, So- malia, and Sudan, to mention a few.1 The nature of these wars makes these countries susceptible to further wars. To avoid such conflict traps, peace- building measures such as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) have been introduced to pave the way for an easier transition from conflict to peace, by minimizing risks from ex-combatants as possible spoil- ers and, restoring hope and security to victims of conflict while developing their communities.2 Evidence from countries that have utilized DDR, such as Angola, DRC, So- malia, and Liberia, suggests that while disarmament and demobilization may be essential, reintegration remains the most critical component of post-conflict peace and security.3 Debate continues over the notion that while disarmament and demobilization entail short-term security opera- tions, they do not by themselves bring sustainable benefits; reintegration focuses on extensive long-term development efforts that are critical to avoiding the conflict trap and sustaining peace in the long run. Short-term security does not bring about sustainable benefits unless it is coordinated with long-term community development strategies. Reintegration address- es the economic and social transformation of both ex-combatants and the overall communities they are joining, yet the full implementation of this pro- cess is generally ignored in DDR programs in post-conflict countries. This paper focuses on the extent of implementation of the reintegration phase in the Niger Delta region’s post-conflict (usually called post-amnesty) period and its impact on peace, security, and development in the region. The Nigerian federal government embraced the post-amnesty DDR concept in June 2009 to set the pace for gradual resolution of the violence that had embroiled the region for almost a decade. During the execution of the disar- mament and demobilization phases, the Niger Delta region recorded initial progress in peace and security demonstrated by an increase in oil produc- tion from an estimated 700 barrels per day (bpd) to an estimated 2,500 bpd in early 2010. However, the implementation of the reintegration phase has raised several questions due to the region’s relapse into violence and crime. There is, therefore, a need to investigate the factors working against suc- cessful implementation of the reintegration process. A critical analysis of the process will enhance the understanding of schol- ars and policymakers alike on what constitutes sustainable reintegration and at the same time, how it may be achieved in post-conflict societies. The focus on reintegration is meant to facilitate a specific consideration of its importance as the point of intersection between short- and long-term peacebuilding processes.
Topic:
Conflict, Peace, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

40. Leadership Targeting as a Counterterrorism Strategy: The Nigerian Experience

Author:
Gbemisola Animasawun
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This paper examines the implications of leadership decapitation as a counterterrorism tactic using as case studies, the killings of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden by the US and Boko Haram leader Mohammed Yusuf by Nigeria. It is based on Alex S. Wilner’s method of comparing the number of attacks a group successfully carried out before and after the removal of its leader as a means of ascertaining its weakness, demise, or renewed ferocity due to the death of its leader.12 This study gives an account of the unprecedented increase in the number of Boko Haram attacks and the high level of fear and attention—both local and international—due to the high-level targets chosen by the group after the killing of Mohammed Yusuf. This is complemented by primary data gathered through semi-structured interviews with selected security operatives who had contact with Yusuf and his successor Abubakar Shekau. For al-Qaeda, data was collected from secondary sources only. This study begins by summarizing the origin and agenda of violent Islamism, followed by arguments for and against leadership decapitation. Next, it considers accounts of the evolution of al-Qaeda and Boko Haram, their experience of leadership decapitation, and the ferocity of both groups in the aftermath of leadership decapitation. Finally, it examines the overall implications of leadership decapitation for counterterrorism efforts in light of the post-decapitation recovery and increase in reach of both al-Qaeda and Boko Haram. The two cases of leadership decapitation examined in this article are telling cases that invite closer attention to the implications of counterterrorism strategies.13
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Refugee Crisis, Leadership, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Middle East, and Nigeria

41. Agitations for Separation and Non-Negotiability of Nigeria’s Unity: Bottling the Bomb?

Author:
Mbanefo Odum
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
The Nigerian state came into being through conquest and forceful imposition of foreign rule, which denied the indigenous peoples the opportunity to negotiate and choose what they wanted. Successive regimes have continued to hold the state together in a seeming forceful manner, creating the impression that the country must remain as crafted by the colonialists and that her unity is non-negotiable. However, the state has continued to experience swirling lava of agitations for self-determination. Relying on documentary evidence, observations, and descriptive analysis, this paper explores the nature of Nigeria’s unity; pattern of coexistence among the different groups within the Nigerian state vis-a-vis the extent they exhibit the proclivity for, as well as the factors that militate against, national integration; the manner the government promotes national unity; and the factors that ignite the separatist tendencies. The finding of this paper is that the inability to foster sense of common identity and national consciousness among the different groups, the continuing promotion of inter-ethnic hatred and unhealthy rivalry, as well as the bad governance rooted in corruption and divisiveness are the main factors that fuel the agitation for separation. The basic recommendation is that the government should reverse her non-negotiable stance about Nigeria’s unity and realize that any sincere move aimed at enthroning lasting peace and unity must begin with good governance and a general understanding and agreement reached by the constituent groups on how to proceed with the Nigerian project.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Separatism, Self-Determination, Peacebuilding, and National Integration
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

42. The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy and Capital Control in Nigeria

Author:
Nathaniel E. Urama and Emeka Charles Iloh
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
This paper examines the primary cause of the exchange rate management failure in Nigeria by evaluating the motivating factor for these changes and reviewing the role of politics and interest group in the Nigerian exchange rate management. The findings show that politics, institutional incentives, and group interest mostly play a significant role in Nigeria’s exchange rate regime determination, as evidenced in the habit of changing the exchange rate system by almost all the political regimes that have existed in the country. More so, the changes are attributed to factors such as different parties and regimes having different macroeconomic preferences, incumbents’ efforts to increase their re-election prospects, and by interest groups that lobby for strong or weak currencies.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange, Political Economy, Exchange Rate Policy, Economic Policy, and Capital
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

43. Evaluating Food Crop Sector Performance in Nigeria (1999-2016)

Author:
Nathaniel E. Urama and Denis Nfor Yuni
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
This study evaluates the performance of food crop sector in Nigeria from 1999-2016. The statistics show that Nigeria is having food insecurity problems: very low value of food production per capita; low and declining average dietary energy supply adequacy; very high variability in per capita food production and supply, and a high depth of food deficit that has been on the increase since 2006. The result also shows that agriculture’s contribution to Nigerian GDP has consistently declined from 37.5 percent in 2002 to 21.2 percent in 2016, and that food crop production declined from over 34 percent of the GDP in 2002 to 18.6 percent in 2016. Due to this high depth of food deficit, over 14 million people in the country are undernourished, and this has been increasing geometrically since 2005. Also, more than six million of the under-five children are stunted, and the consumer price of foods has been high and rising. Compared to other countries, there has not been any significant improvement in reducing the depth of food deficit in Nigeria.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Children, Food Security, Economy, and Nutrition
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

44. Climate Policy And Finance

Author:
Precious Chukwuemelie Akanonu
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
Carbon pricing has been recognized not only as the most efficient economic policy instruments to internalize the social cost of emissions, but also as a major tool to generate public revenues that can be used to offset the potential adverse distributional effects of climate policy. However, in many developing countries, there is a widespread reluctance to commit to climate policy, largely due to financial constraints, a lack of public support, and concern over its regressive effects.This paper makes recommendations towards the design of an effective carbon pricing system that not only discourages air pollution but also encourages the gradual uptake of climate-friendly technologies by the private sector in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, while supporting public investment in sustainable infrastructures and projects that offset the distributional effect of the climate policy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Finance, Climate Finance, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

45. Setbacks and Realignments: The Continuing Evolution of Militant Islamist Groups in Africa

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
A review of violent events involving militant Islamist groups in Africa over the past year reveals a mixed picture, with some groups showing increased activity and others diminished. This variance underscores the importance of local factors affecting each context.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, ISIS, Militant Islam, Al Shabaab, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, and Nigeria

46. Electrification in Nigeria: Challenges and Way Forward

Author:
Joseph Ishaku
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
Although electricity has been generated in commercial quantities in Nigeria for over a century, the rate of electricity infrastructure development in the county is low and power supply remains inadequate. Prior to reforms, the central challenges of the Nigerian power sector was the vertically integrated monopoly of government in power generation, transmission and distribution. While the reforms was successful in privatizing the generation and distribution segments of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI), the overbearing problems in the sector persists –with privatization only changing the dimensions of the challenges. Financing remain a major problem across all the segments of the NESI partly due to non-cost reflective tariff. Yet each segment of the NESI also faces its unique challenges. The generation segment is riffed with the problems of energy security and inefficiencies in other segments. The challenges in the transmission segment lies in the lack of modern transmission lines and equipment, gross mismanagement, poor maintenance of available infrastructure and inefficient grid design. Distribution companies face the problem of huge Aggregate Technical, Commercial, and Collection (ATC&C) losses. In terms of electricity access, 46.09 percent of the Nigerian population remains unconnected to the national grid, representing 83.98 million people. Further, electricity demand is estimated at 24,380 MW as at 2015 compared to NESI’s available generation capacity of 7,139.6 MW. In terms of energy use, Nigeria has the lowest in the world – 80 percent below its energy use based on income levels. In a bid to tackle aforementioned challenges, the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) set ambitious targets for the country’s energy mix. This should allow Nigeria exploit its potential for coal, solar, wind, biomass, as well as small and large hydroelectric power electric generation, while reducing the prevalence of self-generation, which constitute two-thirds of present energy mix. By 2020, the FGN targets to achieve up to 75 percent access to electricity by connecting 1.5 million households annually. While Nigeria’s energy mix targets are desirable, the prospect of success remain bleak on account of financial constraints, pricing policy and lack of policy coordination. Improving electricity supply in Nigeria and addressing barriers to achieving the energy mix targets will entail: addressing payment risk, financing power sector investment, as well as improving the pricing and tariff structure, gas pricing and allocation, and market regulation.
Topic:
Development, Markets, Infrastructure, Regulation, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

47. Countering Sexual Violence in Conflict

Author:
Jamille Bigio and Rachel Vogelstein
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Armies and armed groups often subject noncombatants—particularly women and children—to conflict-related sexual violence, such as rape, sexual slavery, and forced marriage. Despite international recognition of this devastating abuse as a crime against humanity, sexual violence continues to plague conflicts from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to Syria. This practice has also proliferated among extremist groups, including Boko Haram in Nigeria and the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Additionally, sexual violence has tarnished the operations of peacekeepers charged with protecting civilians, thereby undermining the integrity and effectiveness of international peacekeeping institutions across the globe. Sexual violence in conflict is not simply a gross violation of human rights—it is also a security challenge. Wartime rape fuels displacement, weakens governance, and destabilizes communities, thereby inhibiting postconflict reconciliation and imperiling long-term stability. Combating conflict-related sexual violence merits a higher place on the U.S. foreign policy agenda. Although the U.S. government has taken modest steps to address sexual violence in conflict under successive Republican and Democratic administrations, more action is needed. To counter such violence, the Donald J. Trump administration should require training on conflict-related sexual violence in U.S. security cooperation efforts; expand the number of women serving in militaries, police, and peacekeeping forces around the world; increase accountability for the crime of sexual violence; and undermine terrorist financing streams raised through the abduction of women and children. These steps will help the United States and its allies respond effectively to the security threat posed by conflict-related sexual violence and advance U.S. interests in peace and stability.
Topic:
Human Rights, Gender Based Violence, Conflict, and Sexual Violence
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Syria, Nigeria, and Congo

48. Electrification in Nigeria: Challenges and Way Forward

Author:
Chukwuka Onyekwena, Joseph Ishaku, and Precious Chukwuemelie Akanonu
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
Although electricity has been generated in commercial quantities in Nigeria for over a century, the rate of electricity infrastructure development in the county is low and power supply remains inadequate. Prior to reforms, the central challenges of the Nigerian power sector was the vertically integrated monopoly of government in power generation, transmission and distribution. While the reforms was successful in privatizing the generation and distribution segments of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI), the overbearing problems in the sector persists –with privatization only changing the dimensions of the challenges. Financing remain a major problem across all the segments of the NESI partly due to non-cost reflective tariff. Yet each segment of the NESI also faces its unique challenges. The generation segment is riffed with the problems of energy security and inefficiencies in other segments. The challenges in the transmission segment lies in the lack of modern transmission lines and equipment, gross mismanagement, poor maintenance of available infrastructure and inefficient grid design. Distribution companies face the problem of huge Aggregate Technical, Commercial, and Collection (ATC&C) losses.
Topic:
Economics, Privatization, Infrastructure, Finance, Electricity, Economic Development, Financial Institutions, and Financial Services
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

49. Local Actors, Conflict Management, and Peacebuilding in Central Nigeria: Insights and Policy Implications

Author:
Jimam T. Lar
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This policy briefing note focuses on the role of local actors1 in conflict man- agement and peacebuilding in central Nigeria, and explores two issues: the problem of intractable conflicts and the potential for local actors to play a role in policy interventions aimed at conflict management. By focusing on local actors and their impact on prospects for peacebuilding in local conflicts, it reveals the need to draw lessons and best practices from local contexts to apply to regional and national conflict management policies and peacebuild- ing processes.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Conflict, Local, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

50. Memory, Reconciliation, and Peacebuilding in Post-Civil War Nigeria

Author:
Godwin Onuoha
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This paper critically explores the nature of post-civil war peace in Nigeria since the end of the Nigeria-Biafra War in 1970. The context of this study is the recent emergence of neo-Biafran groups calling for the secession of the Igbo of Southeastern Nigeria from the federation, almost five decades af- ter secessionist Biafra was defeated and reabsorbed into Nigeria under the banner of national unity. Nigeria’s post-civil war nation-state peacebuilding project was framed around reconciliation, rehabilitation, and reconstruc- tion policies which shaped the nature of national citizenship, the “peace dividend,” and reintegration of the Igbo into a united Federal Republic of Nigeria. The failure of these policies has inevitably fueled lingering post- war memories. The construction of individual and collective memories of the war is intertwined with relations of power, inclusion, and exclusion. Ul- timately, while attempts at post-war reconciliation and national unity ap- peared to have eased opposing memories of the war in the public realm, group memories of “hurt,” “injustice,” and “marginalization” still flourished in the private realm—which consisted of kinship and family networks, town unions, and ethnic groups. Part of the focus of this paper is to examine the onnections between such ill feelings and the emergence of neo-Biafran groups within the country and in the diaspora that are evoking memories of, and nurturing the quest for, a “new” Biafra. As the mobilization efforts of the neo-Biafra groups gain increasing attention in Southeastern Nigeria, the problematic nature of Nigeria’s post-conflict peace, which has not com- pletely eliminated the risk of a relapse into conflict since 1970, is brought to the fore.
Topic:
Civil War, Diplomacy, Nationalism, Citizenship, Memory, Peace, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

51. Ethnic Minorities and Land Conflicts in Southwestern Nigeria

Author:
Jeremiah O Arowosegbe
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
One central aspect of the national question within the discourse on Nigeria concerns the conflicts and disputes historically driven by struggles over land-based resources. Examples of such conflicts include that of Ife- Modakeke in Osun State, the Jukun-Chamba conflict in the Takum Local Government Area of Taraba State, the Tiv-Jukun conflict in Benue and Plateau States, and the Umuleri-Aguleri war of attrition over Otuocha land in Anambra State. Drawing on primary data generated from focus group discussions and oral interviews between October 2009 and March 2015 across locations with pronounced incidents of land-based conflicts in Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, and Oyo States in southwestern Nigeria, this work examines the impact of economic considerations on ethnically motivated conflicts in the country over land from 1999 to 2015. It examines land conflicts in southwestern Nigeria—which have been occurring since the 1980s and stubbornly resurfaced in recent times—as a major economic and sociopolitical problem at the national and state levels. This study examines the following questions: How has land been connected with some of the historical conflicts across Nigeria? How has the character of the state in Nigeria affected the management of ethnically motivated land conflicts? What does this case study suggest in terms of the resolution of land-based conflicts across the country? This study argues that colonialism—through its policies and programs as well as the administrative structures and political systems put in place by the colonial state—not only changed the material conditions of populations across Nigeria by forcefully integrating them into the colonial and later global capitalist system (by compelling them to participate in colonial economic activities largely dominated by profit motive, thereby negating the autonomous development of the emergent postcolonial state), but also radically altered the complexities and directions of the land question. Hence Okwudiba Nnoli’s assertion that colonial and postcolonial societies are characterized by struggles that do not originate in local changes in the prevailing systems of class relation and material production.
Topic:
Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, and Land
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

52. State Responses to the Relapse into Insurgent Violence in Nigeria's Oil Region

Author:
Charles Ukeje
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
With its roots in decades of crude oil production and the attendant crises of mismanagement of oil revenues, the reemergence of armed groups1 in the Niger Delta region in early 2016 marked a return to the ‘business-as-usual’ insurgency that dominated the oil region since the 1990s. In February 2016, the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) claimed responsibility for attacking oil facilities owned by major international oil companies (IOCs). During the same period, the state-owned Nigeria National Petroleum Com- pany (NNPC) reportedly spent N4.023 billion to repair 293 pipeline breaks. These attacks disrupted oil production and forced the IOCs to declare a force majeure, reducing daily oil production from 2.2 million to between 1.6 and 1.7 per million barrels per day. These developments coincided with a na- tional fiscal crisis linked to dwindling global oil prices; from over $100/barrel to around $50/barrel. Without steady gas supplies, the already dire electricity situation nationwide was further compounded by a 2,500 megawatts drop in power generation.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Non State Actors, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

53. The Resurgence of Petro-Conflict in Post-Amnesty Niger Delta, Nigeria: Rethinking Conflict Trajectories and Reforms

Author:
Elias Courson
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Since the late 1990s, the oil-endowed Niger Delta region has become an almost ungovernable space. From 1999, there has been a turn to militancy, which escalated with the emergence of the Movement for 1 the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) in 2005/6. Although the government was initially slow to react to the unfolding trajectory of violent conflict in the region, there was a period of relative peace in the wake of the 2009 amnesty deal, which was somewhat disrupted in February 2016 by the emergence of a new militant group, the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA).2 Apart from the NDA, a plethora of little-known militant groups emerged in the Niger Delta between February and November 2016. Their attacks brought the oil industry and by extension, the nation’s economy to a state of near collapse. The government lost about $7 billion (N2.1 trillion) due to the activities of insurgent groups and oil pipeline vandals in the Niger Delta. Some estimates suggest that these disturbances brought down oil production from 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), to barely 1 million bpd. The NDA’s strategic return to the oil creeks to mount sting operations on Nigeria’s petro-economy when global oil prices had fallen drastically (from a peak of $115 per barrel in mid-2014 to less than $40 per barrel in early 2016), exacerbated the country’s financial woes and contributed towards the national economic recession.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Global Recession, and Militias
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

54. Poverty and Social Violence in Africa: Nigeria as Case Study

Author:
Hakeem Onapajo and Ufo Okeke Uzodike
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
As with most societies around the world, violence has been a common feature of many African societies. While political violence, especially those targeted at the state and involving armed groups, has gained popularity in public discourses, social violence is one form of violence that is not necessarily against the state. Often driven by few (if any) political objectives, social violence is increasingly becoming a regular occurrence in many states across Africa and other parts of the world. Unfortunately, because of the complex nature of its causal antecedents, social violence attracts less attention from scholars and policy makers. Based on the long-standing arguments that poverty and violence have a significant relationship, this paper focuses on, and demonstrates, the connection between the increasingly high poverty rates and armed social violence in Africa including urban violence and organized crimes such as kidnapping and drug trafficking. The paper presents a set of recommendations to ameliorate poverty and manage the incidence of armed social violence in Africa.
Topic:
Political Violence, Development, Politics, Poverty, Armed Forces, Conflict, and Social Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

55. Alternative Financing for Infrastructural Development in Nigeria

Author:
Uzochukwu Amakom and Queeneth Ekeocha
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
Infrastructure development is very critical to achieving human capital development in any society. The economic impact that infrastructure improvement has on any nation building cannot be over-emphasized as the growth of any country’s economy hugely depends on the status of her infrastructure. The dearth of needed infrastructure in a given society places serious limitation on human capital development. The major objective of this study is to critically analyse different and alternative scenarios that Nigeria as a country can utilise to finance infrastructure across the country. Scenarios to be analysed include: loans (domestic and foreign); as well as Public Private Partnership (PPP). This study is a desk research. All information and data presented and analyzed are secondary in nature from different national and international sources. These sources include: The Central Bank of Nigeria; The Budget Office of Federation; Debt Management Office (DMO), African Development Bank (AfDB), The World Bank Development Indicators (WDI), the Central Intelligence Agency – The World Factbook, relevant extant Laws and Policies, newspapers articles, studies by other authors on the subject, etc.
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, Sustainable Development Goals, Roads, Public-Private Partnership, and Nation-building
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

56. Beyond the Card Reader: Elections Rigging as an Emerging National Security Threat in Nigeria

Author:
Ufo Okeke Uzodike and Hakeem Onapajo
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
This paper provides an evaluation of the existing technological strategies in the Nigerian electoral process with a view to ascertain their reputed efficacy for solving the problem of electoral malpractices in the country. Are the devices really fit for purpose? Will they address the accreditation problems and prevent multiple voting and other forms of elections rigging and malpractices? Is Nigeria technically ready and able to manage effectively electronic devices that have the potential of being used to unleash massive electoral fraud that could completely undermine peaceful coexistence within its fragile and sensitive electoral context? It then provides policy recommendations on advancing the measures to improve the credibility of elections in Nigeria.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Developing World, Elections, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

57. Tax Waivers for Multi-Nationals in Nigeria: Are These Based on Economic or Political Reasoning?

Author:
Hakeem Onapajo
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
Does Nigeria need tax waivers to grow its economy? As reports show the huge losses in tax incentives Nigeria has recorded over the years, the aforementioned question growingly has been a subject of discussion in the economic space, especially in the midst of the recent economic recession. This paper does not focus on this topic only; it extends the analysis by advancing an explanation of the reasoning behind the tax waivers granted to multinational corporations (MNCs). We ask whether the idea behind tax waivers is mainly driven economically or if there are other political (or ulterior) motives behind it. The paper discovers that there is no substantial evidence to prove that the tax waivers are a major driver for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into the country. Rather, the system of tax waivers has been a conduit for MNCs to evade taxes and perpetuate corruption in the system. Therefore, the study concludes that, although there are some economic benefits around tax incentives for MNCs, there appears to be more politics around it. Owing to this, the study offers some recommendations on ways to strengthen the tax system and ensure that tax incentives – if they must continue – must serve the purpose for which they are designed and not exploited by foreign companies (and the local collaborators) at the expense of Nigeria.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Economic Policy, and Incentives
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

58. Separatist Agitations in Nigeria: War versus Peace Journalism

Author:
Chijioke Odii and Maxwell M. Ngene
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
The mass media are veritable tools for information dissemination, surveillance and correlation. Conflict reporting is one of the delicate areas of media practice. The type of agenda the media set on a conflict can either fuel or quell the crisis. Warring parties take their grievances to the media, with words as lethal as ballistic missiles. The Nigerian media, having been divided along ethnic lines since the colonial era, report separatist agitations with ethnic lens. With the trend, peace journalism, an emerging form of journalism that creates conducive environment for peaceful resolution of conflicts, seems elusive in Nigeria. This paper examined how the Nigerian media reported Biafra and Boko Haram, and how peace journalism approach can be adopted to improve media performance in this regard. Using desk review, descriptive survey, content analysis and personal interview methods, the study found that the Nigerian media adopted war journalism approach in reporting Biafra agitation and Boko Haram, amidst influencing factors. The paper recommends the adoption of peace journalism approach by the Nigerian mass media, to be relevant in finding lasting solutions to the conflicts; integration of Nigerian media into the national security framework and domestication of Freedom of Information Act in States of Nigeria.
Topic:
International Relations, Terrorism, Democracy, Media, Journalism, Separatism, Peace, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

59. Population Displacement in Africa: Top 10 Countries of Origin

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
While much attention has focused on refugee migration into Europe, two-thirds of Africa’s dislocated population are internally displaced.
Topic:
Migration, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, and Diaspora
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Democratic Republic of Congo

60. Portfolio Diversification Between Developed And Less Developed Economies

Author:
Tirimisiyu F. Oloko
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This study examines the hedging effectiveness of portfolio investment diversification between developed and developing economies; with focus on the Nigerian stock asset vis-à-vis the stock assets of the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK). Its main contribution is in the analysis of optimal portfolio diversification using optimal portfolio weight (OPW) and optimal hedging ratio (OHR). Empirical findings show that the OPW and OHR are low, which indicates impressive potential gains from combining Nigerian stock assets in an investment portfolio with US and UK stock assets. In addition, exchange rate volatility is found to pose stern limitation on the potential benefits of this portfolio diversification arrangement. It is therefore recommended that the monetary authority in Nigeria should pursue policies towards reducing exchange rate volatility to the barest minimum. This will possibly attract more investors from developed economies who might be willing to combine Nigerian stock in their investment portfolio to minimize portfolio risk.
Topic:
Economics, Investment, Diversification, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Nigeria, and United States of America

61. Regional Powers and Leadership in Regional Institutions: Nigeria in ECOWAS and South Africa in SADC

Author:
Merran Mulse
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
Regional powers are not always benevolent leaders when it comes to the building of regional institutions. While powerful states – particularly the “new” rising powers – may have a vested interest in regionalism as a means of projecting influence, regional powers may behave as coercive or benevolent leaders, or alternatively display an absence of leadership altogether. The drivers of varying regional power behavior can be attributed to their competing concerns regarding (economic) power, functional efficiency, international legitimacy, and neopatrimonial networks. This paper explores the varying behavior of Nigeria and South Africa in relation to the institutionalization of free trade areas and regional courts within their respective regions. Nigeria has displayed little leadership in ECOWAS trade integration due to domestic opposition; however, a newly-democratic Nigeria’s search for international legitimacy drove the establishment of the ECOWAS Court of Justice. Likewise, South Africa’s search for legitimacy drove its support for the SADC Tribunal, but the competing demands of different audiences led it to abandon this support. South Africa has also displayed leadership in relation to the SADC Free Trade Area; however, its neighbors perceive it as a self-interested, almost coercive actor. The findings suggest that the motivations for regional powers’ behavior vary across time and policy sectors, and that inconsistent behavior is driven by a change in the priority granted to different drivers.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Leadership, Legitimacy, and Institutionalism
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Nigeria

62. Infrastructure Financing In Nigeria

Author:
Chukwuka Onyekwena, Precious Chukwuemelie Akanonu, and Anointing Ogie Momoh
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
Similar to most sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, Nigeria has a huge infrastructure deficit which considerably limits efforts towards achieving inclusive growth, sustainable development, and poverty reduction. With infrastructure stock estimated at 20-25 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Nigerias infrastructure stock is still significantly lower than the recommended international benchmark of 70 per cent of GDP. The 2014 National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIMP) estimates that a total of US$ 3 trillion of investments, or US$100 billion annually, is required over the next 30 years to bridge Nigerias infrastructure gap. In particular, the Plan estimates that Nigeria will have to spend an annual average of US$ 33 billion infrastructure investments for the period 2014 -2018. This means that Nigeria will have to more than double its spending on infrastructure from the current 2-3 per cent of GDP to around 7 per cent to make appreciable progress in infrastructure development over the next three decades.
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, GDP, Finance, Economic Growth, Economic Development, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Sub-Saharan Africa

63. African Boundary Conflicts and International Mediation: The Absence of Inclusivity in Mediating the Bakassi Peninsula Conflict

Author:
Aloysius Nyuymengka Ngalim
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This paper begins with a description of the conflict, mediation and post- mediation clashes, and an analysis of the mediation process. The main argument is that post-mediation clashes were a result of the exclusion of the views and interests of residents of the Bakassi peninsula. Background information on the conflict is presented to situate the paper within extant ideas on international mediation and to provide theoretical underpinning and a theoretical basis for the conclusion. This study draws data from documentary sources complemented with interviews conducted during fieldwork between January and April 2013. Documentary sources include press reports and legal documents related to the dispute as well as scholarly publications. Data was analyzed using the content analysis approach.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Imperialism, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Cameroon

64. Electoral Rentierism? The Cross-National and Subnational Effect of Oil on Electoral Competitiveness in Multiparty Autocracies

Author:
Matthias Basedau and Michael Wahman
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Building on theoretical insights from research on the rentier state and the “resource curse,” several studies have supported the argument that oil hinders democracy. However, previous research on the rentier state has neglected the global surge of multiparty autocracies or “electoral authoritarian” regimes since the end of the Cold War. No systematic study has been carried out on the question of whether or not and how oil affects electoral contests in nondemocratic regimes. In this paper we contribute to filling this gap by combing the literature on multiparty autocracy and the political economy of the rentier state. As oil production creates substantial, nontransparent revenue streams to national and subnational governments, we hypothesize that oil production has a negative effect on electoral competitiveness, both cross‐ and subnationally, in multiparty autocracies. Consequently, the democratic “resource curse” emphasized in earlier work on the rentier state is likely to persist even after the introduction of multipartyism in cases where oil production predates democratic institutions. The paper tests the hypothesis cross‐nationally, using data on all multiparty elections held in the world in the period 1975–2010, and subnationally, using a new data set on subnational election results and oil production in Nigeria. Our results confirm that oil impedes electoral competitiveness, both cross‐ and subnationally, in multiparty autocracies.
Topic:
Cold War, Democratization, and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

65. Curbing Violence in Nigeria (III): Revisiting the Niger Delta

Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Violence in the Niger Delta may soon increase unless the Nigerian government acts quickly and decisively to address long-simmering grievances. With the costly Presidential Amnesty Program for ex-insurgents due to end in a few months, there are increasingly bitter complaints in the region that chronic poverty and catastrophic oil pollution, which fuelled the earlier rebellion, remain largely unaddressed. Since Goodluck Jonathan, the first president from the Delta, lost re-election in March, some activists have resumed agitation for greater resource control and self-determination, and a number of ex-militant leaders are threatening to resume fighting (“return to the creeks”). While the Boko Haram insurgency in the North East is the paramount security challenge, President Muhammadu Buhari rightly identifies the Delta as a priority. He needs to act firmly but carefully to wind down the amnesty program gradually, revamp development and environmental programs, facilitate passage of the long-stalled Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) and improve security and rule of law across the region.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Development, Environment, Oil, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

66. Below the Threshold: The Law Governing the Use of Force Against Non-State Actors in the Absence of a Non-International Armed Conflict

Author:
Daniel Hessel, Julia Shu, and Sarah Weiner
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Legal Challenges, Yale Law School
Abstract:
Boko Haram attacks civilians in Nigeria. The Islamic State launches attacks in Paris. Terrorists take hostages at a hotel in Mali. Mexican drug gangs threaten government officials and civilians. Houthi rebels seek to take control of the government in Yemen—and succeed. States increasingly face security threats from non-state actors, which have led states and observers to ask what states can do in response. What legal framework should apply? What constraints do states face? When can states resort to the use of military force to address threats posed to them by non-state actors, either on their own territory or on the territory of another state? The answer to these questions turns on whether the conflict in question rises to the level of a non-international armed conflict (NIAC). Based on the drafting history of international humanitarian law (IHL) governing NIACs, international jurisprudence, recent state practice, and academic commentary, this paper concludes that a NIAC does not exist unless the conflict passes an intensity threshold. In other words, the intensity of the conflict distinguishes generalized violence involving a non-state actor from a NIAC. Once the existence of a NIAC is established, states participating in it will be governed by relevant IHL.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Military Intervention, Conflict, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Nigeria and Global Focus

67. Competitiveness - Catching the Next Wave: Africa

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The pace of growth in sub-Saharan Africa could easily surpass most regions of the world. This report examines the industries with potential to fuel this growth and development over the next two decades, as well as central infrastructure and policy issues, focusing on South Africa, with additional analysis provided for Kenya and Nigeria.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Population, and Population Growth
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, South Africa, and Nigeria

68. Nigeria Post-Election Survey

Author:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
The mood in Nigeria is extremely upbeat following the peaceful conduct of the 2015 general elections, which led to the first democratic transfer of power in the country’s history. The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) conducted pre- and post-election surveys in Nigeria focusing on perceptions of electoral integrity, opinions of election administration, and satisfaction with Nigerian democracy. Knowledge Perception InfographicFrom the December 2014 pre-election survey to the July 2015 post-election survey, satisfaction with democracy more than doubled with a 56 percent majority expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Nigeria, up by 30 percentage points in the pre-election phase (26%). Similarly, while only 23 percent of respondents in the pre-election phase believed Nigeria is a full democracy or a democracy with minor problems, 51 percent now believe Nigeria is a full democracy (18%) or a democracy with minor problems (33%), marking a net increase of 28 percentage points. Perception Integrity InfographicNearly three-quarters of Nigerians believe that both election integrity and the organization of the elections were better in the 2015 than in the previous polls in 2011. And while the survey indicated voters had to wait for several hours to get accredited and vote on Election Day, overall, 83 percent of voters assessed their voting experience to be good or very good. Indeed, confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) also registered a sharp increase by 16 percentage points, moving from 68 percent in pre-election levels to an overwhelming 85 percent after the elections. From December 2014 to July 2015, public awareness of the INEC and its Chairman at the time of the elections, Professor Attahiru Jega, increased by 16 percent and 25 percent, respectively.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Elections, and Survey
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

69. Nigeria's 2015 Elections: Lessons and Prospects for Democratic Consolidation

Author:
Nkwachukwu Orji
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Despite widely held concerns about the likelihood of a destabilizing outcome, Nigeria suc- cessfully conducted its general elections on March 28 and April 11, 2015. The peaceful and positive result came to many as a surprise, considering the difficult political and secu- rity environment in which the elections were conducted. Five major obstacles had stood in the way of their going smoothly: the competing claims to the presidency by northern and southern politicians; a keenly contested campaign smeared by inflammatory messages; the grave security threat posed by the Boko Haram insurgency; allegations of politically motivated postponement of the elections; and gaps in electoral preparations. This briefing assesses Nigeria’s 2015 general elections, highlighting factors that enabled the country to avoid larger-scale violence and lessons that can be learned from its experience.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

70. Macroeconomic Impact of Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
John Weeks
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper assesses the impact of capital flight on growth in thirty-one sub-Saharan African countries. It first considers the “macro fundamentals” hypothesis that capital flight would be lower in a country whose government adhered to “sound” macroeconomic policies. Analytical considerations fail to support this hypothesis. Second, it develops a growth estimating equation derived from the Harrod-Domar framework. The growth estimations support the conclusion that capital flight had a major impact on growth over the last three decades, 1980–2010. The negative impact was greatest for the petroleum-exporting countries and those affected by internal conflict, but it was also substantial for the other countries, with a few exceptions.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Global Markets, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, Macroeconomics, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Angola, Chad, Cameroon, Global Focus, Gabon, and Republic of Congo

71. Curbing Violence in Nigeria (II): The Boko Haram Insurgency

Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Boko Haram's four-year-old insurgency has pitted neighbour against neighbour, cost more than 4,000 lives, displaced close to half a million, destroyed hundreds of schools and government buildings and devastated an already ravaged economy in the North East, one of Nigeria's poorest regions. It overstretches federal security services, with no end in sight, spills over to other parts of the north and risks reaching Niger and Cameroon, weak countries poorly equipped to combat a radical Islamist armed group tapping into real governance, corruption, impunity and underdevelopment grievances shared by most people in the region. Boko Haram is both a serious challenge and manifestation of more profound threats to Nigeria's security. Unless the federal and state governments, and the region, develop and implement comprehensive plans to tackle not only insecurity but also the injustices that drive much of the troubles, Boko Haram, or groups like it, will continue to destabilise large parts of the country. Yet, the government's response is largely military, and political will to do more than that appears entirely lacking.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

72. Nigeria's Dangerous 2015 Elections: Limiting the Violence

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria's presidential, parliamentary and state gubernatorial and assembly elections, scheduled for February 2015, will be more contentious than usual. Tensions within and between the two major political parties, competing claims to the presidency between northern and Niger Delta politicians and along religious lines, the grim radical Islamist Boko Haram insurgency and increasing communal violence in several northern states, along with inadequate preparations by the electoral commission and apparent bias by security agencies, suggest the country is heading toward a very volatile and vicious electoral contest. If this violent trend continues, and particularly if the vote is close, marred or followed by widespread violence, it would deepen Nigeria's already grave security and governance crises. The government, its agencies and all other national figures must work urgently to ensure that the vote is not conducted in an explosive situation as this could further destabilise the country.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Ethnic Government, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

73. U.S. Policy to Counter Nigeria's Boko Haram

Author:
John Campbell
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The April 2014 kidnapping of more than 250 schoolgirls from Chibok in northern Nigeria by the militant Islamist group Boko Haram—and the lethargic response of Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan's government— provoked outrage. But the kidnapping is only one of many challenges Nigeria faces. The splintering of political elites, Boko Haram's revolt in the north, persistent ethnic and religious conflict in the country's Middle Belt, the deterioration of the Nigerian army, a weak federal government, unprecedented corruption, and likely divisive national elections in February 2015 with a potential resumption of an insurrection in the oil patch together test Nigeria in ways unprecedented since the 1966–70 civil war.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and Nigeria

74. African Perspectives on Sovereign Debt Restructuring

Author:
Domenico Lombardi, Skylar Brooks, and Ezra Suruma
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
On August 7 and 8, 2014, CIGI's Global Economy Program co-hosted a conference with Uganda Debt Network to discuss African perspectives on sovereign debt restructuring. The proceedings, opened by the vice president of Uganda, took place in Kampala, and featured several distinguished participants — including current and former finance ministers and central bank governors, academics and practitioners, and civil society representatives — from Uganda, Liberia, Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Participants also came from civil society organizations and intergovernmental institutions representing broader groups of African countries or the continent as a whole.
Topic:
Debt, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Liberia, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Ghana, and Cameroon

75. Why do Youth Join Boko Haram?

Author:
Freedom C. Onuoha
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Since Nigeria's return to democracy in May 1999, armed nonstate groups have significantly undermined the country's internal security environment, largely using young men as foot soldiers. Among these groups, Boko Haram has grown to become a serious national, regional, and international concern. Estimates of the death toll from Boko Haram attacks since 2009 range as high as ten thousand fatalities. With Boko Haram and other groups seemingly gaining in strength, questions arise as to why young men join them in the first place and what the government and other actors can do to prevent it. Surveys, interviews, and focus groups conducted in Nigeria in 2013 suggest that poverty, unemployment, illiteracy, and weak family structures make or contribute to making young men vulnerable to radicalization. Itinerant preachers capitalize on the situation by preaching an extreme version of religious teachings and conveying a narrative of the government as weak and corrupt. Armed groups such as Boko Haram can then recruit and train youth for activities ranging from errand running to suicide bombings. To weaken the armed groups' abilities to radicalize and recruit young men, the Nigerian government at all levels, perhaps with support from interested international actors, could institute monitoring and regulation of religious preaching; strengthen education, job training, and job creation programs; design robust programs to aid destitute children; promote peace education; and embark on an anticorruption campaign. Addressing the conditions that make it possible for insurgents to recruit young men in Nigeria can significantly diminish the strength of the insurgency, if not eliminate it altogether.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

76. Nigeria-Poland Bilateral Trade: Identifying New Trade Opportunities

Author:
Idris Ademuyiwa and Chukwuka Onyekwena
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the bilateral trade relationship between Nigeria andPoland for the period 1995 to 2012. It uses the Decision Support Model (DSM)and the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework (GIFF) to identifymarket for Nigerian exports in Poland.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Economic Growth, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, Eastern Europe, Poland, and Nigeria

77. Explaining Sectoral and Spatial Variations in Growth Pro-poorness in Nigeria

Author:
Eberechukwu Uneze and Adedeji Adeniran
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the sectoral and spatial variations in growth pro-poorness in Nigeria, using the Shapley decomposition, the Ravallion-Huppi decomposition and the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. The results show that spatial and sectoral variations in pro-poor growth are a result of inequality and shift in population, human capital (spatial variation only) and structural factors (sectoral variation only). In addition, the paper finds that the zones and sectors with moderate growth have high poverty-growth elasticity, while zones and sectors with high growth have low poverty-growth elasticity. Thus, spatial and sectoral variations in growth pro-poorness result in weak response of poverty to growth in Nigeria.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Economic Growth, and Human Capital
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

78. New Meeting Note: Security and Development in the Sahel-Sahara

Author:
Mireille Affa'a-Mindzie
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
After the severe twin crises that nearly brought Mali to its knees in January 2012, the country is gradually recovering from their debilitating consequences. In August 2013, Mali successfully elected its new president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, thus putting an end to an eighteen-month-long transitional government that was put in place following the March 2012 coup. Even though the violence has abated and renewed hope seems to be in the air, the structural causes of the Malian conflict are still stubbornly present and their consequences are still being felt by neighboring Sahel countries that suffer from similar underlying ills. The situation in Mali and other concerned states in the region generated a renewed interest in the Sahel-Sahara region and in efforts to stabilize this region. This prompted the International Peace Institute, the Executive Secretariat of the Strategy for Security and Development in the Sahel-Saharan Areas of Niger (SDS Sahel Niger), and the Centre for Strategies and Security for the Sahel Sahara (Centre 4S) to convene an international seminar on security and development in the Sahel-Sahara on February 15 and 16, 2013, in Niamey, Niger.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Development, Economics, Peace Studies, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

79. HIV/AIDS Intervention Packages in Five Countries: A Review of Budget Data

Author:
Amanda Glassman, Denizhan Duran, Rachel Silverman, and Victoria Fan
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
More than ever, global health funding agencies must get better value for money from their investment portfolios; to do so, each agency must know the interventions it supports and the sub-populations targeted by those interventions in each country.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Health, Humanitarian Aid, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
India, Philippines, Ethiopia, and Nigeria

80. Agriculture as a Potent Economic Growth Driver for the Nigerian Economy

Author:
Daniel S. Ugwu, Emeka Nzeh, and Uzochukwu Amakom
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
This study is an attempt to assess the place of agriculture as a potent economic growth driver in the Nigerian economy. Essentially, the study explores information concerning the critical roles of agriculture to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and or economic growth of Nigeria; the study went forward to identify various endogenous and exogenous factors that have hindered the maximum performance of the agricultural sector in the country. Furthermore, the study, identifies other economic growth drivers that can accelerate the repositioning of agriculture as a major economic growth driver in Nigeria and Africa and finally, the study explores the various strategies that can be adopted to position Nigeria and indeed Africa on the path of prosperity through the development of the agricultural sector of the economy. The primary objective of the study is to explore ways of enhancing economic growth through agriculture by virtue of its potency as a major growth driver of the Nigerian economy and the African continent as a whole.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Poverty, Food, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

81. Public Financial Management and Fiscal Outcomes in Nigeria : Empirical Evidence

Author:
Kanayo Ogujiuba and Harrison Okafor
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
This study analysed the relationship between public financial management systems and fiscal outcomes in Nigeria. The findings indicate that institutional factors such as corruption and literacy rate affect the institutional pillars of PFM in Nigeria. The pillars include governance structure, accountability, transparency and predictability. Poor budget coordinating institutions, lack of respect for the rule of law, weak fundamentals of appropriation templates and contract management and poor accounting systems are the critical factors undermining the ability of these pillars to positively influence fiscal outcomes in Nigeria. Thus, the need to critically improve the index of capture, budget institutions and the coordination of the MDA’s capital budgeting system through integrated and systematic accounting system cannot be overemphasized.
Topic:
Finance, Accountability, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

82. Curbing Violence in Nigeria (I): The Jos Crisis

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since 2001, violence has erupted in Jos city, capital of Plateau state, in Nigeria's Middle Belt region. The ostensible dispute is over the “rights” of the indigene Berom/ Anaguta/Afizere (BAA) group and the rival claims of the Hausa-Fulani settlers to land, power and resources. Indigene- settler conflicts are not new to Nigeria, but the country is currently experiencing widespread intercommunal strife, which particularly affects the Middle Belt. The Jos crisis is the result of failure to amend the constitution to privilege broad-based citizenship over exclusive indigene status and ensure that residency rather than indigeneity determines citizens' rights. Constitutional change is an important step to defuse indigene-settler rivalries that continue to undermine security. It must be accompanied by immediate steps to identify and prosecute perpetrators of violence, in Jos and other parts of the country. Elites at local, state and federal level must also consistently implement policies aimed at reducing the dangerous link between ethnic belonging and access to resources, power and security if intercommunal violence is to end.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Natural Resources, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

83. Who rules Nigeria?

Author:
Inge Amundsen
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Nigeria has experienced military coups, a civil war and very poor economic development, and its population is more impoverished today than at independence. Behind this lies the “oil curse”. The ruling elite has captured the rents generated from oil for personal enrichment and power purposes. Nigeria's elite formation has three distinct characteristics. It is based on a fusion of elites, with the military dominating. It is consolidated through power diversification (with the conversion of political power into economic power as the most important), and it is enriched through economic extraction (where the usurpation of the country's oil wealth is pivotal).
Topic:
Civil War, Corruption, Democratization, Oil, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

84. How Perks for Delegates Can Influence Peace Process Outcomes

Author:
Thomas Kwasi Tieku
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper examines the impacts that luxurious perks for delegates, such as paid daily allowances, have on peace talks. Drawing on the Burundian peace processes held in Arusha in Tanzania and the Seventh Round of the Inter-Sudanese Peace Talks held in Abuja in Nigeria, shows that perks can unintentionally prolong peace talks. For some of the delegates, staying free of charge in five-star hotels and receiving the equivalent of five months' pay in one week of per diems made continued talks more attractive than achieving peace. The generous incentives seduced the conflicting parties away from whatever interest they might have had in actually reaching an agreement, encouraged delegates to create procedural barriers where none had previously existed, and promoted fragmentation among the rebel groups at the negotiating table. Though the paper uses contemporary African case studies to illustrate the argument, this issue transcends the African continent, as perks are a long-established diplomatic practice. To deal effectively with the unintended problems they create requires fundamental cultural and attitudinal changes in most international organizations.
Topic:
Corruption, Diplomacy, International Organization, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, Tanzania, and Nigeria

85. What Is Boko Haram?

Author:
Andrew Walker
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Boko Haram is an Islamic sect that believes politics in northern Nigeria has been seized by a group of corrupt, false Muslims. It wants to wage a war against them, and the Federal Republic of Nigeria generally, to create a “pure” Islamic state ruled by sharia law. Since August 2011 Boko Haram has planted bombs almost weekly in public or in churches in Nigeria's northeast. The group has also broadened its targets to include setting fire to schools. In March 2012, some twelve public schools in Maiduguri were burned down during the night, and as many as 10,000 pupils were forced out of education. Boko Haram is not in the same global jihadist bracket as Algeria's al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, or Somalia's al Shabab. Despite its successful attack on the UN compound in Abuja in August 2011, Boko Haram is not bent on attacking Western interests. There have been no further attacks on international interests since that time. Following the failed rescue of hostages Chris McManus and Franco Lamolinara in north¬eastern Nigeria in March 2012, President Goodluck Jonathan played up the connections between the group and international terrorism. However, links between Boko Haram and the kidnappers are questionable. It is difficult to see how there can be meaningful dialogue between the government and the group. The group's cell-like structure is open for factions and splits, and there would be no guarantee that someone speaking for the group is speaking for all of the members. Tactics employed by government security agencies against Boko Haram have been consis-tently brutal and counterproductive. Their reliance on extrajudicial execution as a tactic in “dealing” with any problem in Nigeria not only created Boko Haram as it is known today, but also sustains it and gives it fuel to expand. The group will continue to attack softer targets in the northeast rather than international targets inside or outside Nigeria. It is also likely to become increasingly involved in the Jos crisis, where it will attack Christian indigenes of the north and try to push them out. Such a move would further threaten to destabilize the country's stability and unity.Now that the group has expanded beyond a small number of mosques, radical reforms in policing strategy are necessary if there is to be any progress in countering the group. Wide¬spread radical reform of the police is also long overdue throughout Nigeria. As a first step, jailing a number of police officers responsible for ordering human rights abuses might go some way to removing a key objection of the group.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Religion, United Nations, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, Nigeria, and Somalia

86. Rethinking Nigeria's Indigene-Settler Conflicts

Author:
Aaron Sayne
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Many of Nigeria's worst conflicts pit the recognized original inhabitants, or indigenes, of a particular place against supposedly later settlers. These conflicts may be growing deadlier and more numerous with time. State and local governments have free rein to pick who is an indigene. Abuse of the label can foster deep socioeconomic inequalities, given that indigenes enjoy preferential access to land, schools, development spending, and public jobs. These inequalities feed into violence, although righting inequality may not be sufficient to end violence in every case. The indigene-settler distinction is also explosive because it reinforces and is reinforced by other identity-based divides in Nigeria. These differences in ethnicity, language, religion, and culture can be longstanding and deeply felt, but how they factor into violence is again not well understood. Poor law enforcement responses also help entrench violence between indigenes and settlers. Official complicity and indifference make prosecutions rare. Destructive conduct by the Nigerian security forces itself often becomes a structural cause of violence. Serious thought about how to prevent or resolve indigene-settler violence has barely started in Nigeria. Addressing inequality between indigenes and settlers calls for serious, microlevel analysis of local economic dysfunctions and opportunities, along with real official commitment to make and enforce better policies. More holistic understandings of justice are also needed. The worst hot spots will need a wide menu of well-planned interventions. Options include securitization, criminal prosecution, mediation and dialogue, truth commissions, victim compensation programs, public health and trauma assistance, public institutional reforms, education, and communications work. In some cases, building sustainable peace could take a generation or more.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, Ethnic Conflict, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

87. Beyond Turf Wars in Coup-Hit Guinea-Bissau

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Guinea-Bissau took another dangerous turn on 12 April 2012, when the army arrested Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Júnior, who was about to be elected president. A military junta accused him of conspiring with Angola to curtail the military's power and quickly installed transitional authorities, before officially stepping aside on 22 May. International condemnation was swift, but differences developed between the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries (CPLP). The former, pushed by Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso, supports a year's transition, the latter, especially Portugal and Angola, immediate resumption of the presidential vote. Coup and transition may have opened a way for vital reforms, which must go beyond changes in the army and combating the drugs trade. But for that to happen, ECOWAS and CPLP must reach a consensus on working with international partners to mobilise resources for security, judicial and electoral reforms and refusing to validate Gomes Júnior's illegal exclusion from political life.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Post Colonialism, Power Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Africa, Senegal, Nigeria, Portugal, and Angola

88. Boko Haram and the resilience of militant Islam in northern Nigeria

Author:
Roland Marchal
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Northern Nigeria is coping with a violent underground group, Boko Haram, that has been able to carry out attacks mainly in northern states, but also in Abuja by bombing the United Nations Nigerian headquarters. The targeting of prisons, barracks, security officers and politicians makes the lay population feel unsafe, since violence has become unpredictable. The state apparatus is so visibly challenged that it tends to overreact and actually kills even more civilians than Boko Haram does.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, and Nigeria

89. Oil Revenues, Institutions And Macroeconomic Performance In Nigeria

Author:
Vanessa Ushie, Oluwatosin Adeniyi, and Sabastine Akongwale
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
The paper presents an elaborate econometric analysis of a number of key macroeconomic indicators to oil revenue and examines the results of oil revenue fluctuations.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Institutions, Macroeconomics, and Revenue
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

90. Ukrainian arms supplies to sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Paul Holtom
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Ukraine has consistently been among the 10 largest arms exporters in the world during the past two decades. An estimated 18 per cent of Ukrainian arms exports during 2005–2009 were for recipients in sub-Saharan Africa, specifically to Kenya (or Southern Sudan), Chad, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Ukraine has supplied surplus aircraft, tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery, SALW and ammunition to armed forces in sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, Ukrainian companies and individuals have supplied other services related to arms transfers and participated in combat missions for African armed forces.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Ukraine, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, Guinea, and South Sudan

91. Africa and the Arab Spring: A New Era of Democratic Expectations

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
A question often asked since the launch of the Arab Spring in January 2011 is what effect will these popular protests have on democracy in the rest of Africa. Frequently overlooked in this discussion is that Sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its own democratic surge during this time with important advances in Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, Nigeria, and Zambia, among other countries. This progress builds on nearly two decades of democratic institution building on the continent. Even so, the legacy of “big-man” politics continues to cast a long shadow over Africa's governance norms. Regime models on the continent, moreover, remain highly varied, ranging from hard core autocrats, to semi-authoritarians, democratizers, and a select number of democracies.
Topic:
Democratization and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Africa, Arabia, Nigeria, and Zambia

92. Armed Conflicts and Security of Oil and Gas Supplies

Author:
Giacomo Luciani
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The paper offers a systematic analysis of the impact of international or civil wars and violent non-state groups on global oil and gas supplies. Statistical evidence points to the fact that international wars are becoming increasingly rare, while civil wars remain frequent. The paper discusses the cases of the Iraq-Iran war and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, showing the limits to the damage that belligerents were able to inflict on oil installations and illustrating how the world was able to compensate for this damage. The Iraqi insurgency following international intervention to replace the Saddam Hussein regime is discussed together with other cases of civil wars in Nigeria, Angola and Sudan. The analysis supports the conclusion that oil and gas installations appear to be much more resilient to armed conflict than is normally acknowledged. History shows that civil wars have caused limited damage to existing installations, but they have hindered the desired investment in new development and attainment of target production levels. However, it is very obvious that government's inability to overcome or reabsorb violent opposition discourages international oil company investment even if the violence does not affect the areas around oil and gas installations.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Oil, Insurgency, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Kuwait and Nigeria

93. Conflict in the Niger Delta

Author:
Chris Newsom
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Neither Nigeria nor foreign donors are investing enough to end violent conflict in the Niger Delta. While Nigerian officials opt to buy short-term cease-fires, such as the 2009 amnesty process, other governments spend too little in money and manpower to grow local civil society, engage core conflict issues, or adequately understand the region's problems. All parties likewise fail to focus on deeper trends when planning their anticonflict strategies. This causes them to undervalue the potential costs of ongoing violence, as well as the importance of a peaceful Niger Delta to Nigeria's economic development and global energy security. A tragedy of the commons results. The situation in the delta remains fragile and will likely return either to intermittent conflict or full-blown insurgency within six to eighteen months if a "business as usual" approach is taken to interventions. The amnesty process opened a door for stabilization but did not reduce the long-term potential for violence or deal with root conflict issues. Governance is both at the heart of the conflict and the best place to seek solutions. To best help catalyze peace in the region, donors should invest heavily in democratization and learn lessons from a decade of setbacks and poor investment choices. International support for governance reform in the delta must start at the grass roots. The key is to lay a foundation to support and argue for better government practices higher up. Civil society is already having some success promoting accountability at the community level. Obstacles are high and progress is slow, making longer commitments from donors a must. Reformers in the Niger Delta also have operated too much in isolation. Local and international actors need a multilateral strategy allowing them to combine levers and use each other's momentum. They must ground this strategy in deeper analysis of the region's problems and a unified theory of change. Donors should also complement their support of governance reform in the delta with funding for innovative local development work. Ideas and best practices should be sought from other countries, with flexibility for keying in to promising government initiatives.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil Society, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

94. Climate Change Adaptation and Conflict in Nigeria

Author:
Aaron Sayne
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Nigeria's climate is likely to see growing shifts in temperature, rainfall, storms, and sea levels throughout the twenty-first century. Poor adaptive responses to these shifts could help fuel violent conflict in some areas of the country. A basic causal mechanism links climate change with violence in Nigeria. Under it, poor responses to climatic shifts create shortages of resources such as land and water. Shortages are followed by negative secondary impacts, such as more sickness, hunger, and joblessness. Poor responses to these, in turn, open the door to conflict. Drawing lines of causation between climate change and conflict in specific areas of Nigeria calls for caution, however, particularly as the scientific, social, economic, and political implications of the country's changing climate are still poorly understood. President Goodluck Jonathan's government needs to initiate a serious program of research and policy discussion before taking major adaptive steps. Government and private actors also need to ensure that particular adaptive responses do not themselves fuel violence but actively help build peace. Successful adaptation measures will be crosscutting in design and impact, based on inclusive planning and implementation, steer clear of political patronage traps, and confront political and scientific uncertainty. Solid engagement on the part of the Nigerian federal government is key to achieving the best outcomes, even if most adaptation is done privately. Thus far, official responses have been weak. Along with better information and discussion, Nigeria needs a main federal oversight body to coordinate research and policy, larger roles for sister agencies, and an implementation plan. The country also needs and deserves the help of more developed nations in the form of both adaptation funding and technical assistance.
Topic:
Climate Change, Corruption, Environment, Poverty, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Nigeria

95. Revisiting the Resource–Conflict Link: A Systematic Comparative Test of Causal Mechanisms in Four Major Oil-Exporting Countries

Author:
Miriam Shabafrouz, Matthias Basedau, and Annegret Mähler
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Causal mechanisms and related contextual variables are crucial to the study of the resource–conflict link, but little systematic research has been done on their exact functioning. This paper contributes to the filling of this gap by comparing four major oil exporters (Algeria, Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela) with differing levels of internal violence. To capture the causal complexity of the resource–conflict link we created a questionnaire with some 150 variables that distinguish between resource-specific (RS) and non-resource specific (NRS) conditions. The causal mechanisms are measured by assigning pertinent RS and NRS indicators to them. Our results suggest that the role of resources may be less prominent than is widely assumed. Only three resource-related causal mechanisms provide limited explanatory value (motive at subnational level, indirect economic, and institutional mechanism) by distinguishing Venezuela—the most peaceful case—from all the others. Only a mixed mechanism that combines 13 RS and NRS (economic and geographic characteristics, identity, intergroup relations, as well as political and institutional variables, including elite behavior) conditions can explain the differences between the countries with regard to the dependent variable comprehensively.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Diplomacy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria

96. Africa and the Arab Spring: A New Era of Democratic Expectations

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
A question often asked since the launch of the Arab Spring in January 2011 is what effect will these popular protests have on democracy in the rest of Africa. Frequently overlooked in this discussion is that Sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its own democratic surge during this time with important advances in Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, Nigeria, and Zambia, among other countries. This progress builds on nearly two decades of democratic institution building on the continent. Even so, the legacy of "big-man" politics continues to cast a long shadow over Africa's governance norms. Regime models on the continent, moreover, remain highly varied, ranging from hard core autocrats, to semi-authoritarians, democratizers, and a select number of democracies.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Governance, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Africa, Arabia, and Nigeria

97. Are Borders Barriers? The Impact of International and Internal Ethnic Borders on Agricultural Markets in West Africa

Author:
Jenny C. Aker, Michael W. Klein, Stephen A. O'Connell, and Muzhe Yang
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper addresses two important economic issues for Africa: the contribution of national borders and ethnicity to market segmentation and integration between and within countries. Market pair regression analysis provides evidence of higher conditional price dispersion for both a grain and a cash crop between markets separated by the Niger-Nigeria border than between two markets located in the same country. A regression discontinuity analysis also confirms a significant price change at the international border. The international border effect is lower, however, if the cross-border markets share a common ethnicity. Ethnicity is also linked to higher price dispersion within Niger; we find a significant intranational border effect between markets in different ethnic regions of the country. This suggests that ethnic similarities diminishing international border effects could enhance international market integration, and ethnic differences could contribute to intranational market segmentation in sub-Saharan Africa. We provide suggestive evidence that the primary mechanism behind the internal border effect is related to the role of ethnicity in facilitating access to credit in agricultural markets. We argue that the results are not driven by differences in price volatility or observables across borders.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, and Nigeria

98. Sufism in Northern Nigeria: Force for Counter-Radicalization?

Author:
Jonathan N. C. Hill
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
In light of the ongoing threats issued by Al Qaeda against the United States and its allies, the need to prevent the radicalization of young Muslim men and women remains as pressing as ever. Perhaps nowhere is this task more urgent than in the countries of West Africa. The global expanse of the ongoing war on terror places these territories in the frontline. With large Muslim populations that have hitherto remained mostly impervious to the advances of Islamism, the challenge now confronting the Nigerian government and the international community is ensuring that this remains the case. But in recent years, Islamist groups have been highly active in the region. The aim of this monograph is to assess the potential of Nigeria's Sufi Brotherhoods to act, both individually and collectively, as a force for counter-radicalization, to prevent young people from joining Islamist groups.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
United States, West Africa, and Nigeria

99. When Does Rigorous Impact Evaluation Make a Difference? The Case of the Millennium Villages

Author:
Michael Clemens and Gabriel Demombynes
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
When is the rigorous impact evaluation of development projects a luxury, and when a necessity? We study one high-profile case: the Millennium Villages Project (MVP), an experimental and intensive package intervention to spark sustained local economic development in rural Africa. We illustrate the benefits of rigorous impact evaluation in this setting by showing that estimates of the project's effects depend heavily on the evaluation method. Comparing trends at the MVP intervention sites in Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria to trends in the surrounding areas yields much more modest estimates of the project's effects than the before-versus-after comparisons published thus far by the MVP. Neither approach constitutes a rigorous impact evaluation of the MVP, which is impossible to perform due to weaknesses in the evaluation design of the project's initial phase. These weaknesses include the subjective choice of intervention sites, the subjective choice of comparison sites, the lack of baseline data on comparison sites, the small sample size, and the short time horizon. We describe how the next wave of the intervention could be designed to allow proper evaluation of the MVP's impact at little additional cost.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

100. Northern Nigeria: Background to Conflict

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Violence in northern Nigeria has flared up periodically over the last 30 years. Mainly in the form of urban riots, it has pitted Muslims against Christians and has seen confrontations between different Islamic sects. Although there have been some successes in conflict management in the last decade, the 2009 and 2010 troubles in Bauchi, Borno and Yobe states involving the radical Boko Haram sect show that violence still may flare up at any moment. If the situation were to deteriorate significantly, especially on Christian-Muslim lines, it could have serious repercussions for national cohesion in the build up to national elections in April 2011. To deal with the risks, community-level initiatives need to be reinforced, a more subtle security response should be formulated and the management of public resources must be improved. While some in the West panic at what they see as growing Islamic radicalism in the region, the roots of the problem are more complex and lie in Nigeria's history and contemporary politics.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Political Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria