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2001. A Decomposition Analysis of Regional Poverty in Russia

Author:
Anthony Shorrocks and Stanislav Kolenikov
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper applies a new decomposition technique to the study of variations in poverty across the regions of Russia. The procedure, which is based on the Shapley value in cooperative game theory, allows the deviation in regional poverty levels from the all- Russia average to be attributed to three proximate sources; mean income per capita, inequality, and local prices. Contrary to expectation, regional poverty variations turn out to be due more to differences in inequality across regions than to differences in real income per capita. However, when real income per capita is split into nominal income and price components, differences in nominal incomes emerge as more important than either inequality or price effects for the majority of regions.
Topic:
Economics and Poverty
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2002. Illegal Immigration, Human Trafficking, and Organized Crime

Author:
Raimo Väyrynen
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
It is important to make a careful distinction between illegal immigration, human smuggling, and human trafficking which are nested, but yet different concepts. This distinction is relevant because these different categories of the illegal movement of people across borders have quite different legal and political consequences. Human smuggling and trafficking have become a world-wide industry that 'employs' every year millions of people and leads to the annual turnover of billions of dollars. Many of the routes and enclaves used by the smugglers have become institutionalized; for instance, from Mexico and Central America to the United States, from West Asia through Greece and Turkey to Western Europe, and within East and Southeast Asia. More often than not flourishing smuggling routes are made possible by weak legislation, lax border controls, corrupted police officers, and the power of the organized crime. Naturally, poverty and warfare contribute to the rising tide of migration, both legal and illegal.
Topic:
Environment and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Turkey, East Asia, Greece, Asia, Latin America, Central America, North America, Mexico, Southeast Asia, Western Europe, and West Asia

2003. Quo Vadis? Inequality and Poverty Dynamics across Russian Regions

Author:
Ruslan Yemtsov
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses regional data on inequality and poverty in Russia during 1994-2000 using published series from the regionally representative Household Budget Survey. The paper finds that the share of inequality in Russia coming from the between-regions component is large (close to a third of the total inequality), growing, and accounts for most of the increase in national inequality over 1994-2000. The paper demonstrates an absence of interregional convergence in incomes across Russian regions using various techniques. On the other hand, the paper finds evidence of convergence in inequality within regions, trended towards an internationally high level. Based on these two findings, the paper projects dynamics of inequality and poverty in Russia over a ten-year time horizon. The projections show that if the observed trend continues, by 2010 the absolute majority of Russia's poor will be concentrated in a few permanently impoverished regions, while relatively more affluent regions will become virtually free of poverty. Finally, the paper relates fluctuations in inequality within regions to a set of factors classified into four broad categories: endowments and initial conditions, preferences, policies, and shocks. Among these factors short-run fluctuations of the unemployment rate are revealed as significant and strong signals of inequality.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2004. Externalities in Rural Development: Evidence for China

Author:
Martin Ravallion
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper tests for external effects of local economic activity on consumption and income growth at the farm household level using panel data from four provinces of post-reform rural China. The tests allow for nonstationary fixed effects in the consumption growth process. Evidence is found of geographic externalities, stemming from spillover effects of the level and composition of local economic activity and private returns to local human and physical infrastructure endowments. The results suggest an explanation for rural underdevelopment arising from underinvestment in certain externality-generating activities, of which agricultural development emerges as the most important.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2005. Social and Economic Decline as Factors in Conflict in the Caucasus

Author:
Svetlana Glinkina and Dorothy Rosenberg
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We argue that the conflicts in the Caucasus are the result of the abrogation by the elite of the earlier, Soviet era, social contract. This process was accompanied by the collapse of the formal economy; evidenced by huge national income compression, falling public goods provision, and growing inequality and poverty. In the absence of state provision of basic amenities and governance, ordinary people are compelled to fall back on kinship ties. Declining standards of governance facilitate state-sponsored corruption and criminality in a setting where the shadow economic activity is increasingly important to individual survival strategies. Oil pipelines and the right to control the transit of goods both legal and illegal also underlie conflict in the region. Criminality has replaced ethnicity as the major motivation for conflict and conflict per se has become a lucrative source of income.
Topic:
Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

2006. In the Shadow of a Cease-fire: The Impacts of Small Arms Availability and Misuse in Sri Lanka

Author:
Chris Smith
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Sri Lanka appears to be entering the final chapter of the 20-year civil war between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Although it may be too early to assess, and the peace process is currently stalled, it does seem that the LTTE is more serious about a sustained peace process than at any time since the violence erupted in 1983.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Asia and Sri Lanka

2007. Policy Recommendations for the Third Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD III)

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The world is now several years into the twenty-first century. However, Africa remains a place faced with many difficulties, from violent conflicts to poverty and disease. A cursory examination of Africa today shows that the majority of the people in this region are not able to raise their incomes, and that the number of Africans living in poverty continues to increase, despite the fact that their countries receive considerable aid from the international community.
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

2008. Yemen between Democratization and Prolonged Power

Author:
Hiroshi Matsumoto
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to present my own views on Yemen's moves to democratize. In order to do so, I will analyze a variety of issues related to the electoral system in Yemen and Yemeni political parties.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Asia

2009. Sino-Japanese Relations Entering A New Stage- With the Trend of the Times, Broader Perspective as A Fresh Starting Point

Author:
Yang Bojiang
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Relations between China and Japan have weathered 30 turbulent years since the normalization of diplomatic ties in 1972. This period of 30 years can be divided roughly in half into the first and second parts. From 1972 to the late 1980s, when the world had the bipolar polygenetic political and military structures, the two countries took down the barriers of the Cold War to restore normal exchanges between the states and their cooperative relationship achieved rapid development in areas of trade, finance and technologies. In the period between the end of the Cold War and the present day, the bilateral relationship has entered the new stage where friction and collaboration coexist as do competition and cooperation amid the progress in political multipolarization and economic globalization of the world.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2010. Went for Cost, Stayed for Quality?: Moving the Back Office to India

Author:
Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Will the next great wave of globalization come in services? Increasingly, components of back-office services, such as payroll and order fulfillment, and some front-office services, such as customer care, are being relocated from the United States and other developed countries to English-speaking, developing nations—especially India, but also other nations, such as the Philippines. Though moving service activities offshore is not entirely new, the pace has quickened of late. The acceleration of this business process offshoring (BPO) is intertwined, though not synonymous, with another phenomenon, namely an increasing willingness by firms to outsource what formerly were considered core activities. It is significant that a substantial number of service activities might move offshore, because it was once thought that service jobs were the future growth area for developed country economies. Manufacturing, by contrast, would relocate to lower labor cost regions offshore. Notably, the services commonly known as “business processes” (BPs) are among the fastest growing job categories in the United States (Goodman and Steadman 2002). Should these jobs begin to move offshore, a new tendency may be under way in the global economy that will be as or more important than the relocation of manufacturing offshore, and might necessitate a rethinking of government policies across a wide spectrum.
Topic:
International Relations and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States, India, Asia, and Philippines

2011. Emerging Third Stage Peri-Urbanization: Functional Specialization in the Hangzhou Peri-Urban Region

Author:
Douglas Webster, Jianming Cai, Binyi Luo, and Larisa Muller
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Hangzhou Municipality is the provincial capital of Zhejiang, on China's east coast. It forms part of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. Hangzhou was “opened up” in the mid-1980s, following Deng Xiaoping's visit to the South, resulting in an almost immediate flood of foreign and domestic investment in manufacturing. This initial investment was significantly in the peri-urban areas, i.e., outside the built-up area. The authors have been following development in the Hangzhou extended urban region, with emphasis on peri-urbanization processes, since 2000. A previous APARC discussion paper describes findings of preliminary field research on the Hangzhou–Ningbo Corridor, conducted in August 2000 and March 2001. The present paper zooms in on two peri-urban clusters in the Hangzhou extended urban region, and assesses their development over time. The goal of the research is to better understand how a peri-urban region changes—particularly in terms of firm evolution, labor characteristics, and spatial dynamics—as it becomes more economically and demographically mature. This paper also examines such changes in the context of the increasing cost structures and emerging competitors, primarily from other areas in China, that the Hangzhou peri-urban region now faces.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Maryland

2012. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Urban Dynamics in Chengdu, 1975–2002

Author:
Douglas Webster, Jianming Cai, Binyi Luo, Annemarie Schneider, and Karen C. Seto
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Chengdu, the provincial capital of Sichuan, has undergone rapid transformation during China's post-reform period between 1978 and 2003. One of the leading cities in southwest China, Chengdu is second only to Chongqing in population. Chengdu anchors one end of the Chongqing-Chengdu urban corridor, the fourth most populous urban cluster in China. Although the upgrading of Chongqing Municipality to the equivalent of provincial status in 1997 has increased the city's profile and potential as an administrative, land transportation, and manufacturing center, it is expected that Chengdu's regional and strategic importance as a service and high-tech center will increase in the future. With increased economic specialization among Chinese cities, it is expected that Chengdu and Chongqing cities will increasingly complement each other in terms of function, both enhancing their developmental prospects as a result. Further, the development of western China is a major objective of the Tenth Five Year Plan. The “Go West” policy was introduced in 1999.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Chongqing, and Chengdu

2013. Tax Reforms for Enhancing the Stable Development of the Chinese Financial System

Author:
Lawrence J. Lau and Guijuan Wang
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The Chinese economy has had the highest rate of growth in the world in the past two decades. However, despite its rapid growth and the significant improvements in its financial system, serious risks and problems still exist in both the commercial banking sector and the stock market, that may potentially threaten the stable development and growth of the entire economy. In this paper, these risks and problems in the stock market and the commercial banking sector are identified. Possible solutions are then discussed. Finally, tax reforms are proposed that have the effects of (1) eliminating the double taxation on cash dividends from corporate profits; (2) encouraging the substitution of new equity for existing debt by corporations, which can lower the P/E ratios without lowering the stock prices and improve quality of commercial bank assets by reducing the probability of new nonperforming loans; and (3) attracting new and longer-term investors, both domestic and foreign, to the Chinese stock market. It is also shown that the proposed tax reforms will not result in a significant reduction in total fiscal revenue.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2014. The Politics of China's Shareholding System

Author:
Mary Comerford Cooper
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper considers two questions. First, why did the Chinese government establish stock markets? Second, how have political interests shaped the key features of these markets? Based on both interviews and statistical analysis, the paper argues that China's top Party-State leaders attempted to create stock market institutions that allow the state to maintain control over listed companies, and over “the market” as a whole.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2015. Local Governments and the Chinese Stock Market

Author:
Mary Comerford Cooper
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper examines a key aspect of the politics of stock markets in China—the distinct differences in interests between central government leaders and local governments. Central government leaders have a powerful incentive to promote macroeconomic stability and good performance of the stock market. Local leaders, for their part, are less concerned with the overall performance of the stock market than with gaining access to the stock market for companies under their own jurisdiction. The paper demonstrates that company listing brings tangible economic benefits to municipalities. Listed companies are associated with higher levels of gross domestic product (GDP), budgetary revenue, and industrial and commercial tax revenue. Therefore, it is not surprising that local officials put substantial effort into lobbying for the right to list additional companies on the national stock exchanges.
Topic:
Communism, Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2016. Addressing the North Korea Nuclear Challenge

Author:
Michael H. Armacost, Daniel I. Okimoto, and Gi-Wook Shin
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
North Korea's renewed bid for nuclear weapons poses an urgent, serious foreign policy challenge to the United States. The current situation—though it bears a resemblance to the events of 1993–1994—is far more dangerous and difficult. North Korea has developed longer-range ballistic missiles; South Korea's growing nationalism has put its U.S. relations on shakier ground; and the United States is distracted by the wars on terrorism and for regime change in Iraq.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Israel, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Palestine

2017. Sociological Dimensions of China's Economic Transition: Organization, Stratification, and Social Mobility

Author:
Andrew G. Walder
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Despite skepticism about official economic statistics, there is little doubt that China since 1978 has undergone an economic transformation of historic proportions. This outcome stands in stark opposition to arguments that were once widely accepted in several scholarly communities, and which are still highly influential even today. In the early 1980s there was wide agreement that “partial” reform, under a single party dictatorship that sought indefinitely to preserve public ownership, was a recipe for failure. China specialists, students of comparative economic systems, and economists who advised governments and international agencies about postcommunist restructuring in Eurasia were initially in broad agreement on this point.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2018. International Organizations and Democratization: Testing the Effect of GATT/WTO Membership

Author:
Mary Comerford Cooper
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Does the World Trade Organization promote democracy? A large part of the heated and protracted debate over China's application for WTO membership revolved around this question. Prior to China's WTO accession in December 2001, this debate had dragged on for nearly fifteen years. While one side argued that WTO membership would promote democratization in China, others argued that the wealth generated through economic integration would provide the resources to maintain authoritarian rule. Only time will tell whether WTO accession will contribute to pressures for democratization in China. In the meantime, however, this paper examines the empirical basis for these competing claims about the effects of GATT/WTO memberships on domestic political systems. Based on statistical analysis of a global data set, this paper concludes that members of the international trade regime are more likely than nonmembers to be democracies. However, there is little evidence that WTO membership in itself can promote democratic transition. Instead, it appears to be the case that democratic countries are more likely to seek to join the WTO.
Topic:
Communism, Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2019. Politics and Property in Transitional Economies: A Theory of Elite Opportunity

Author:
Andrew G. Walder
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Command economies gave communist-era elites administrative control and material privilege but severely restricted money income and private wealth. Markets and privatization inject new value into public assets and create unprecedented opportunities for elite insiders to extract incomes or assume ownership. These opportunities vary with the extensiveness of regime change and the barriers to asset appropriation. Within these limits, they further vary with the concentration and form of economic assets and structural changes induced by reform. Elite advantages are smallest where regime change is extensive and barriers to asset appropriation are high, and in small-scale economies that grow rapidly. In China, there has been no regime change and privatization has been delayed and slow. In the rural economy, elites keep their posts as a source of economic advantage, while low entry barriers to household enterprise and rapid growth have created new entrepreneurial elites. After two decades, rural officials nonetheless enjoy large net income advantages that grow along with the expansion of labor markets and private entrepreneurship. These are not generic outcomes of market reform, but the product of market reform in distinctive political and structural conditions.
Topic:
Communism, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2020. The Paradox of Korean Globalization

Author:
Gi-Wook Shin
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Some months ago a Stanford freshman came to ask for help on his project on Korea. At the time, I thought he was a Korean American, given that his command of both English and Korean is excellent. To my surprise, I learned that he was educated until high school in Korea and had never been to the United States before coming to Stanford. He surprised me further when he told me about his high school, the Korean Minjok Leadership Academy (KMLA). Located in a remote area of Kwangwon province—arguably the more underdeveloped region in South Korea—KMLA aspires to be Korea's version of Eton. The school's goal is to produce Korea's future leaders, and to instill in them a strong national identity (see its website at http://www.minjok.hs.kr). Fascinated by what he told me, I made a visit to his high school in fall 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
United States, America, Asia, and Korea

2021. China's New Leadership: Paradoxes, Characteristics and Implications

Author:
Cheng Li
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In his seven-decade-long academic career, the great British historian, Joseph Needham, tried to explain what Sinologists later called “the Needham Paradox.” It was a paradox that, while traditional China had many talented people and was advanced in science, the country declined during the middle part of the last millennium. According to Needham, a primary reason for the decline of China was that the country “lost its edge” by suppressing technicians and merchants “whose power posed a threat to the Emperor.”
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2022. The Prospects for Political Reform in China: Religious and Political Expression

Author:
Richard Madsen
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Religion is flourishing in China today. After being severely restricted in the first decade and a half of the Maoist era, virtually all forms of public religious practice were suppressed during the Cultural Revolution and replaced by a quasi-religious cult of Mao, complete with sacred texts (the Little Red Book), rituals, and claims of miracles. But the Mao cult imploded amid the chaos of the Cultural Revolution. After the death of Mao and the overthrow of his close associates, the Deng Xiaoping regime relaxed restrictions on religious practice; and the freedoms of an expanding market economy made the remaining restrictions easy to subvert. In this environment, hundreds of religious flowers began to bloom, some of them replications of pre-revolutionary religious forms, many others new mutations of the old. According to the government's own—almost certainly underestimated—figures, there are over 100 million religious believers in China today. The real number is probably several times as large.
Topic:
Politics and Religion
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2023. Taiwan in U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Shelley Rigger
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
It is hardly a revelation that U.S. relations with Taiwan and the People's Republic of China are vexed and vexing. Managing U.S. relationships with Taiwan and China has never been easy, but the trend seems to be toward ever greater complexity and ever higher stakes. The U.S. is like a helicopter pilot carrying out a rescue at sea. The pilot is struggling to hover above the boat, which is drifting and heaving, while the wind does its best to blow his craft out of the sky. Meanwhile, the passengers on the deck are fighting over who gets to go up first. Like the helicopter pilot, U.S. policy makers must hold a steady course while they wait for Taiwan and China to resolve their differences. They also would like to do what they can to speed up the negotiations down on the deck.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, East Asia, and Asia

2024. Taiwan's Approach to Cross-Strait Relations

Author:
Ying-jeou Ma
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Civil war broke out between the Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) Government of China and the Chinese Communist forces shortly after Japan surrendered to the Allied forces in 1945. Having occupied most of the country by mid-1949, the Chinese Communists proclaimed in Beijing the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) on October 1, 1949. The Nationalist Government retreated to Taiwan, an island of 13,969 square miles just 90 miles off the coast of the Chinese Mainland, in December that year and continued to call itself the Republic of China (ROC). Sporadic battles continued in coastal areas of the Chinese Mainland.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, East Asia, Asia, and Island

2025. The Chinese Economy: WTO, Trade, and U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Barry Naughton
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The Chinese economy is showing extraordinary dynamism, which partly reflects the early impact of the commitments in China's WTO accession agreement to liberalize the economy. Incoming foreign investment has increased, and trade has grown rapidly. At the same time, China is grappling with serious economic problems that may worsen in the near future. The most difficult problem in crafting China policy is deciding how to respond flexibly to this extraordinary mixture of dynamism and fragility. Rapid growth gives the Chinese economy remarkable resilience; but deep-seated institutional weakness and stubborn problems of poverty and unemployment create dangers of social and economic disruption. An effective U.S. China policy must navigate between the extremes of over-estimating China's current economic strength and under-estimating her potential.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

2026. Voluntary associations and region building. A post-national perspective on Baltic history

Author:
Jörg Hackmann
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Voluntary associations are a major topic of historical research on nation building and civil society in Europe. This paper focuses on the associational sphere in the Baltic provinces of Tsarist Russia and tries to outline the impact of associations on modern societies in this region. The first section addresses the legal and social frameworks of voluntary associations, followed by a sketch of developmental trends in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The next sections discuss the role of voluntary associations within the concepts of civil society and cultural nation building. Slightly different from conventional functionalist national discourses, it is argued here that, in the perspective of cultural history, voluntary associations contributed considerably to the emergence of the region of North Eastern Europe, a region shaped by close cultural contacts and inter-ethnic relations within the Baltic Sea region as well as by the strivings of the small nations to integrate with larger European structures.
Topic:
Civil Society and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2027. Chinese Military Power

Author:
Harold Brown, Adam Segal, and Joseph W. Prueher
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The People's Republic of China (PRC) is currently engaged in comprehensive military modernization. This report addresses the state of China's military capability, assesses the current capabilities of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), and establishes milestones for judging the future evolution of Chinese military power over the next twenty years. These assessments and milestones will provide policymakers and the public with a pragmatic and nonpartisan approach to measuring the development of Chinese military power. They will allow observers of Chinese military modernization to determine the degree to which changes in the quantity and quality of China's military power may threaten the interests of the United States, its allies, and its friends; and how the United States should adjust and respond politically, diplomatically, economically, and militarily to China's military development.
Topic:
Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

2028. Weapons of Mass Destruction in India and Pakistan

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
India continues its nuclear weapons development program, for which its underground nuclear tests in May 1998 were a significant milestone. The acquisition of foreign equipment will benefit New Delhi in its efforts to develop and produce more sophisticated nuclear weapons. During this reporting period, India continued to obtain foreign assistance for its civilian nuclear power program, primarily from Russia.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, South Asia, India, and Asia

2029. American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair House

Author:
Bruce Riedel
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
July 4th, 1999 was probably the most unusual July 4th in American diplomatic history, certainly among the most eventful. President Clinton engaged in one of the most sensitive diplomatic high wire acts of any administration, successfully persuading Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to pull back Pakistani backed fighters from a confrontation with India that could threaten to escalate into a nuclear war between the world's two newest nuclear powers. The events of that 4th accelerated the road to a fundamental reconciliation between the world's two largest democracies, India and the United States, but also set the scene for another in the series of military coups that have marred Pakistani democracy. As the President's Special Assistant for Near Eastern and South Asia Affairs at the National Security Council I had the honor of a unique seat at the table and the privilege of being a key adviser for the day's events.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, America, South Asia, India, and Asia

2030. Baltic History and Soviet Empire: Recovering the Past in Soviet and Russian Historical Discourse

Author:
Thomas Sherlock
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
This paper is a modest effort to sketch the transformation of public memory in conditions of political transition. Specifically, it examines the recovery and interpretation of the Baltic past in Soviet and post-Soviet discourse. The paper is divided into two parts. The first part examines the desacralization of the central myths that legitimated the Soviet empire and its rule over the Baltic nationalities. The debate on Baltic history during perestroika was part of a larger - and increasingly destructive -- examination of Soviet history that shocked society with a flood of negative revelations about the past, forcing political and academic authorities to cancel secondary school exams and discard existing textbooks as virtually useless. This struggle over how to interpret the Soviet past eventually weakened the normative supports of the Soviet state, contributing to its collapse in 1991.
Topic:
Cold War and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

2031. China's Rise and the U.S. Army: Leaning Forward

Author:
Russell D. Howard and Albert Willner
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
The United States led war on terrorism has already had a major impact on developing state relationships in Asia. The coalition of convenience that emerged in the aftermath of the September 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon has engendered a change in strategic thinking, perceptions, and influence. A significant shift in any of these three areas could have dramatic implications. For the United States, what is required is not only a reassessment of the new realities but also a strategy to take advantage of new opportunities and cope with potential threats. Perhaps nowhere is this need more apparent, or possible responses more fraught with risk, than in determining the impact of such strategic shifts on the U.S.-China relationship, particularly in the security realm.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

2032. Democratic America in Northeast Asia: U.S. Strategy, Theater Missile Defense, and Allied Defense Relationships

Author:
Sonya L. Finley
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
With the proliferation of ballistic and cruise missiles and weapons of mass destruction (WMD), American political leaders have embarked on a long-term plan for deploying Theater Missile Defense (TMD) as a means to protect the United States, US forces abroad, and allies. Effective on 13 June 2002, the United States is no longer party to the 1972 ABM Treaty and missile defense is a priority with "prominence in policy, funding, and organization." TMD essentially is a family of military weapon systems whose purpose is to intercept hostile missiles that have been launched, whether intentionally or unintentionally. However, the question remains whether Theater Missile Defense is, and will be, an integrated and effective tool in achieving overall US national security goals in Northeast Asia, namely enhancing regional security and reducing the threat of weapons of mass destruction.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, and Asia

2033. Democratic Transformation of the Security Sector in Russia: A Sad Saga of Failure

Author:
Yuri Federov
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The motto "Yet who could guard the guards themselves?" used as the epigraph is often quoted in academic and political literature on civil-military relations. Indeed, it consists of two questions in one; both of which related to the essence of democratic transformation of the security sector in post-totalitarian societies: firstly, whether civil institutions are able to "guard the guards", in fact to control military and law-enforcement agencies, and, secondly, whether these institutions are democratically formed or they are of authoritarian or totalitarian nature.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2034. The Russian Federal Border Service: Lessons for Planning and Establishing Border Security Systems

Author:
Vladimir Mochalov
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Following the disintegration of the USSR, there was no decrease in the total length of the Russian border in comparison with that of the Soviet Union (more than 60'000 km²). The number of bordering countries rose from fifteen to sixteen. Furthermore, 13'500 km² of new boundaries were created. This figure represented a fifth overall length of the border). Yet, the new boundaries were not formalised in legal terms, they were not appropriately equipped and, in fact, lacked border guard control.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

2035. Terrorism and Asymmetric Conflict in Southwest Asia

Author:
Shahram Chubin and Jerold D. Green
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
At previous RAND-GCSP workshops in 1999 and 2001, participants examined, respectively, possible roles for NATO in the Middle East and the challenges to Turkey as both a European and Middle Eastern actor. The 2002 workshop, scheduled for June 23-25, 2002, was originally intended to take a broad look at issues relating to Southwest Asia, where Europe and the United States have long grappled with a range of strategic and political differences. However, in light of the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001 and the subsequent U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan, the organisers decided to refocus the workshop around the specific theme of terrorism and asymmetric conflict in Southwest Asia. The workshop focused on both the global and regional aspects of the terrorist threat.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

2036. Fujimori's Financiers: How Japan Became the Largest Aid Donor in Latin America and Its Implications for Future Economic Development

Author:
Michael G. Donovan and Kwan S. Kim
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the historical development of Japan's economic relationship with Latin America and describes trends observed in the short and medium term. The main types of relations examined are trade, direct foreign investment, and official development assistance. Emphasis is placed on how Japan's postwar economic development is mirrored in its changing relationship with Latin America. The importance of relationships for both Japan and the United States is discussed, as are competing broad theoretical hypotheses about the nature and evolution of these relationships. The concluding section explores the impact of the Asian economic crisis on Latin America and assesses the feasibility of free trade agreements between Japan and certain Latin American nations.
Topic:
Development and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, South America, and Latin America

2037. Responding to Terrorism: What Role for the United Nations?

Author:
William G. O'Neill
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
The International Peace Academy held a conference on “Responding to Terrorism: What Role for the United Nations?” on Oct. 25-26, 2002 in New York. In addition to the focus on possible UN initiatives, the conference specifically sought the insights and recommendations of experts from Latin America, Africa and Asia, parts of the world that have suffered greatly from terrorism but whose views and prescriptions are often overlooked or omitted from the debate.
Topic:
Terrorism and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, New York, Asia, and Latin America

2038. Indonesia Backgrounder: How The Jemaah Islamiyah Terrorist Network Operates

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As the Indonesian-led investigation proceeds, the Bali attack on 12 October 2002 looks more and more like the work of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). But what exactly is Jemaah Islamiyah and how does it operate? It is one thing to describe, as many have by now, a network of Islamic radicals extending across Southeast Asia, led by Indonesian nationals, with a loose structure characterised by four territorial divisions known as mantiqis that cover peninsular Malaysia and Singapore; Java; Mindanao, Sabah, and Sulawesi; and Australia and Papua respectively.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, Australia, Singapore, Southeast Asia, and Papua

2039. Myanmar: The HIV/AIDS Crisis

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
HIV prevalence is rising rapidly in Burma/Myanmar, fuelled by population mobility, poverty and frustration that breeds risky sexual activity and drug-taking. Already, one in 50 adults are estimated to be infected, and infection rates in sub-populations with especially risky behaviour (such as drug users and sex workers) are among the highest in Asia. Because of the long lag time between HIV infection and death, the true impact of the epidemic is just beginning to be felt. Households are losing breadwinners, children are losing parents, and some of the hardest-hit communities, particularly some fishing villages with very high losses from HIV/AIDS, are losing hope. Worse is to come, but how much worse depends on the decisions that Myanmar and the international community take in the coming months and years.
Topic:
Human Welfare, International Cooperation, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

2040. Center-periphery Relations in the Afghan State: Current Practices, Future Prospects

Author:
Barnett Rubin and Helena Malikyar
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
After decades of violence during which Afghanistan's weak institutions broke down even further, the Bonn agreement of December 5, 2001, provided elements of a road map for rebuilding governance and security in the common interest of the people of Afghanistan and the rest of the international community. The agreement provided a timetable for key political benchmarks to be met by the interim and transitional Afghan governments, such as the convening of the Emergency Loya Jirga, the appointment of the constitutional commission, the adoption of the constitution by another Loya Jirga, and general elections by June 2004.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

2041. The Global Nuclear Balance: A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Russia retains a significant strategic nuclear force capability, despite the decline in overall force size since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and despite apparent defense budgetary shortfalls and system aging. Russia also inherited sizeable biological and chemical warfare establishments from the FSU, and some components of these programs remain largely intact. Russian entities have exported various nuclear and ballistic missile technologies to states of proliferation concern, and Russia also remains a source for offensive biological and chemical warfare technologies and expertise.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

2042. Weapons of Mass Destruction in India and Pakistan

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
India continues its nuclear weapons development program, for which its underground nuclear tests in May 1998 were a significant milestone. The acquisition of foreign equipment will benefit New Delhi in its efforts to develop and produce more sophisticated nuclear weapons. During this reporting period, India continued to obtain foreign assistance for its civilian nuclear power program, primarily from Russia.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, South Asia, India, Asia, and New Delhi

2043. The Asian Balance of Weapons of Mass Destruction A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Beijing continues to emerge as an increasingly active player in the region. Therefore, it is focused on becoming a world - class industrialized power through a countrywide modernization effort, which includes economic, technological, and military components of national power. Beijing already wields significant international influence by virtue of its permanent membership on the United Nations (UN) Security Council and its economic influence. China's public support for nonproliferation regimes is motivated by several factors, including a desire to enhance its image as a responsible world power and support for nonproliferation objectives.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, South Asia, Beijing, and Asia

2044. US and Russian Nuclear Forces and Arms Control After the US Nuclear Posture Review

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The reporting of START accountable warheads has led to serious confusion between START accountable warheads and actual warheads.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, and Asia

2045. Reducing urban and industrial pollution in Russia

Author:
Steve Gale
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
A USAID wastewater treatment project improved Moscow's drinking water and its companion watershed development project advanced environmental education in the districts near Moscow. A third project in Volgograd failed to build a viable air quality monitoring program to curb pollution. Sustainability and replicability were undercut by failure to plan for replication from the outset and promotion of state-of-the-art (rather than appropriate) technology. Lack of good baseline data and the inability to distinguish results stemming from the projects from those related to the economic downturn made independent assessment of project effectiveness difficult.
Topic:
Environment, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

2046. The Next Wave of HIV/AIDS: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, India, and China

Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The number of people with HIV/AIDS will grow significantly by the end of the decade. The increase will be driven by the spread of the disease in five populous countries—Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, India, and China—where the number of infected people will grow from around 14 to 23 million currently to an estimated 50 to 75 million by 2010.This estimate eclipses the projected 30 to 35 million cases by the end of the decade in central and southern Africa, the current focal point of the pandemic.
Topic:
Human Welfare and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

2047. Report on Uzbekistan

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The conditions for religious freedom are very poor in Uzbekistan. In addition to a highly restrictive law on religion that severely limits the ability of minority religions to function, the Uzbek government in recent years has been harshly cracking down on Muslim individuals, groups, and mosques that do not conform to government-prescribed ideas on how the Islamic faith should be practiced and expressed. This crackdown has resulted in the arrests of thousands of persons and there are credible reports that many have been and continue to be tortured in detention, torture that in some cases has led to the death of those detained. While the government of Uzbekistan does face threats to its security from certain religious groups that have used violence against it, the government's mass arrests of religious believers and reports of torture nevertheless suggest that gravely troubling religious freedom violations are occurring in that country. The Commission recognizes that Uzbekistan only recently gained independence and has not yet developed the institutions and level of civil society necessary for the full protection of human rights, including religious freedom. Nevertheless, this neither excuses nor fully explains the scale and harshness of the government's current campaign against religious freedom.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Uzbekistan

2048. Report on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The people of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea or DPRK) are perhaps the least free on earth, barely surviving under a totalitarian regime that denies basic human dignity and lets them starve while pursuing military might and weapons of mass destruction. By all accounts, there are no personal freedoms of any kind in North Korea, and no protection for human rights. Religious freedom does not exist, and what little religious activity that is permitted by the government is apparently staged for foreign visitors.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, North Korea, and Korea

2049. Determinants and Repercussions of the Composition of Capital Inflows

Author:
Mark Carlson and Leonardo Hernandez
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises of the mid- and late 1990s have renewed the interest among policymakers in the determinants and effects of private capital flows. This paper analyzes whether policies can affect the composition of capital inflows and whether different compositions aggravate crises. We find that, while fundamentals matter, capital controls can affect the mix of capital inflows that countries receive. We find that during the Asian crisis countries with more Yen denominated debt faired worse, while during the Mexican crisis larger short-term debt stocks increased the severity of the crisis.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, Asia, and North America

2050. Migration, Population Change, and the Rural Environment

Author:
Richard E. Bilsborrow
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
This article considers issues pertaining to the linkages between rural populations, migration from and to rural areas, and the environment—focusing on developing countries in the latter part of the 20th century. The article concentrates on internal migration, although it does briefly discuss the state of knowledge on the interplay between international migration and the environment. It addresses questions such as: What are the recent—and projected—patterns of rural population growth? How much internal migration in developing nations is towards rural environments? What kinds of rural environments are people moving into, in what countries, and what are the environmental consequences? Are there relationships in the other direction as well—that is, does environmental deterioration play an important role in out-migration from rural areas? And does out-migration from rural areas have environmental effects on the places of migratory origin? The article concludes with policy recommendations.
Topic:
Security, Environment, Migration, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia