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61. Next-Generation Perspectives on Taiwan: Insights from the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program

Author:
Bonnie S. Glaser, Joshua Stone, Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, and Francesca Ghiretti
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The papers in this compendium were written by 11 members of the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) delegation: Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, Francesca Ghiretti, Heather Hwalek, Leland Lazarus, Lauren Racusin, Friso Stevens, Joshua Stone, Brian Volsky, Theresa Winter, Adrienne Wu. Transatlantic attention to Taiwan has surged in recent years for several reasons. First, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to increased concern in the United States and Europe that Beijing’s growing military capabilities and declining confidence in its ability to achieve peaceful reunification will soon lead the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attempt a takeover of Taiwan by force. The cost of such a war would carry a price tag of around $10 trillion, equal to about 10% of global GDP, according to Bloomberg Economics, far higher than the economic impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. The devastating impact of a Taiwan Strait conflict has provided a wake-up call for leaders in Europe who now echo the Biden administration’s warnings to PRC leader Xi Jinping to refrain from using violence to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, Taiwan is now a regular agenda item in the US-EU Consultations on the Indo-Pacific and the US-EU Dialogue on China. Second, intensifying US-China strategic competition has increasingly focused on technology with chips at the center. Taiwan produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90% of the most advanced ones. A single company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), manufactures most of those chips. Recognition of Taiwan’s dominant role in the semiconductor supply chain has provided another reason to bolster deterrence. It has also sparked interest in “friendshoring” and “onshoring” semiconductor manufacturing. TSMC plans to start production at its first fab in Arizona in 2025 and will break ground on another in Dresden at the end of 2024 with an estimated completion date of 2027. Recognizing the rising geopolitical risks and their own strategic dependencies, the United States and the EU have made building resilient supply chains a priority, especially in semiconductors. In its 2021 Indo-Pacific Strategy, Brussels explicitly committed the EU to engaging with Taiwan in creating resilient supply chains. Third, rising concern in the United States and Europe about election interference and disinformation have sparked interest in learning from Taiwan’s experience in combatting such threats. In the run-up to the January 13, 2024, presidential and legislative elections, PRC attempts to interfere in Taiwan’s politics surged to unprecedented levels through economic coercion, direct political meddling, displays of military force, and manipulation of social media. As the United States and many European countries prepare for their own national elections this year, they are engaging with experts from Taiwan to better understand PRC tactics and the tools that Taiwan successfully employed to counter PRC interference. Fourth, the United States and Europe increasingly recognize that Taiwan’s vibrant and successful democracy is under threat from an authoritarian regime. Taiwan has received high marks for protecting political rights and holding free and fair elections. Taiwan’s democratic achievements are even more impressive when set against the backdrop of a deterioration in freedom worldwide. Like other industrialized democracies, Taiwan faces a multitude of challenges that are especially difficult to address in the face of PRC efforts that prevent Taiwan’s government and its people from interacting with the world. Taiwan’s exclusion from international organizations also hampers the world’s ability to develop effective solutions to myriad problems. The Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) was launched in 2017 to encourage young professionals from the United States to include Taiwan in their research and help Taipei expand its global networks. In 2022, TUPP was expanded to include young professionals from Europe in support of GMF’s mission of promoting transatlantic cooperation. TUPP enables future leaders to acquire a deeper understanding of Taiwan and its relations with the United States through meetings with officials and experts in Washington, DC, followed by a visit to Taiwan to gain first-hand exposure to its politics, culture, and history. Experiencing Taiwan influences how these future leaders approach their work and their writing. It impacts their worldview by imbuing them with an appreciation for Taiwan’s history and commitment to the principles of democracy and human rights that undergird the existing international order. It also reinforces the importance of maintaining robust bilateral relations and strengthening international support for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The 2024 TUPP cohort traveled to Taiwan in February for an intense week of meetings and activities. Each participant gained insights into Taiwan and its role in their respective fields. This year’s delegation comprised five Americans and five Europeans. Over time, TUPP seeks to create a body of global experts with firsthand knowledge of Taiwan who support sustaining and expanding its international ties. I am grateful to the Henry Luce Foundation, the Global Taiwan Institute, and the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy for their support of this goal. The contributions here, written by the entire 2024 TUPP delegation, underscore the importance of deeper study and understanding of Taiwan. I sincerely hope that they stimulate continued transatlantic and global interest in Taiwan and its future.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, Poland, Germany, Latin America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

62. Promoting E-Invoicing Interoperability in ASEAN: Overcoming Barriers to Trade Digitalisation

Author:
Mahirah Mahusin and Hilmy Prilliadi
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Electronic invoicing (e-invoicing) is a vital component of paperless trading, delivering substantial cost savings and efficiency gains for businesses. The ASEAN e-invoicing market has experienced notable growth, spurred by initiatives from tax authorities, public procurement agencies, and business digitalisation programmes. However, adoption across the region still faces significant challenges. To address these barriers, ASEAN has introduced initiatives to foster interoperability, develop common standards, and support regional integration. By prioritising standardisation, offering government support, and encouraging private sector adoption through financial incentives and capacity-building efforts, ASEAN can accelerate trade digitalisation and enhance economic integration across the region.
Topic:
Trade, ASEAN, Supply Chains, Digitalization, and Electronic Invoicing
Political Geography:
Asia

63. Securing Regional Solar Supply Chains: Determinants and Preparedness of the Northeastern Region of India and ASEAN

Author:
Prabir De, Komal Biswal, and Venkatachalam Anbumozhi
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Renewable energy contributes to the acceleration of the energy transition, supports global environmental mitigation, and helps meet sustainable development goals. Energy connectivity of India’s Northeastern Region (NER) with neighbouring countries particularly ASEAN assumes critical importance for accelerating economic integration. NER can play a three-dimensional role as power producer, exporter, and transit provider provided a quadrangular approach to build energy linkages and promote integration is consciously put in place. To understand whether the NER states are capable enough to take forward the solar supply chain development and bolster the ASEAN-India engagements in solar energy sector, this study has designed a state-level index of solar supply chain development by factoring in seven parameters, namely, (i) economic situations, (ii) environmental factors, (iii) spread of connectivity, (iv) financial enabling conditions, (v) mobility, (vi) human development, and (vi) social cohesion, which directly or indirectly influence the solar supply chain development in India. The results show that a clean and decent environment is must for development of solar supply chain. In addition, the study suggests that there is a need to improve the solar supply chain capability in the NER to enhance the economic growth. Leveraging policy support and reinvigorating existing institutions and creating new ones are imperatives for predicting the solar supply chain in the NER. This indexing may help track the trends, allowing for more informed decision-making in securing regional solar supply chain.
Topic:
Renewable Energy, ASEAN, Solar Power, Supply Chains, and Energy
Political Geography:
India and Asia

64. Urban Amenities and Trade Resilience During the Covid-19 Pandemic in Malaysia

Author:
Cassey Lee
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The main objective of this study is to empirically examine the role played by amenities in supporting growth and trade in Malaysia during the pandemic and post-pandemic recovery phases. The manufacturing sector has been an important factor in mitigating the negative impact of the pandemic. It has also been a positive driver of the country’s economic recovery. Transport, health and ICT-related amenities supported production, consumption, and trade activities during the pandemic and post-pandemic recovery periods.
Topic:
Trade, Cities, Resilience, COVID-19, and Amenities
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

65. Impacts of Trade Diversion from China in the United States Market on Wages in a Third Country: Evidence from Thailand

Author:
Kazunobu Hayakawa and Sasatra Sudsawasd
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Since the latter half of the 2010s, China’s exports to the United States (US) have gradually decreased due to the US-China trade war and other factors, such as lockdown measures in China to combat COVID-19. This decrease has resulted in increasing exports from third countries, including Thailand, to the US market by substituting China’s exports, i.e. trade diversion. Against this backdrop, this study empirically investigates how the changes in exports to the US driven by the change in China’s exports to the US affect wages in Thailand. Especially, we examine the heterogeneous effects according to workers’ characteristics. To this end, we conduct regression analyses using individual-level quarterly data from the first quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2023. Our main finding is that the wage gap between low- and middle-skilled workers decreased, whilst the gap between middle- and high-skilled workers increased. Namely, the increased exports to the US caused ‘wage polarisation’ in Thailand. We also find that the increase in exports to the US contributed to expanding the wage gap by age but narrowing it by gender.
Topic:
Markets, Trade Wars, Exports, and Wages
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Thailand, and United States of America

66. Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Impact Firm GVC Participation? Microdata Evidence from India

Author:
Ketan Reddy, Subash Sasidharan, and Shandre Mugan Thangavelu
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In this study, we examine the implications of economic policy uncertainty on global value chain (GVC) participation and the integration of Indian manufacturing firms using firm-level data. Using panel data from 2004 to 2021, we find that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impedes GVC participation and firm integration. Further, we find that the impact of EPU on GVC participation operates through the financial constraint channel with highly leveraged and low-liquidity firms. Using survival analysis, we also highlight that higher EPU results in higher exit from GVCs and reduces entry into GVCs.
Topic:
Economic Policy, Manufacturing, Global Value Chains, and Microdata
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

67. Policy Recommendation to Achieve a Carbon-Neutral Economy: The Case of Corporate Governance and Carbon Performance in Malaysia’s Smart Cities

Author:
Siti Indati Mustapa, Noor Raida Abd Rahman, Amar Hisham Jaaffar, Nor Salwati Othman, and Syarifah Mardhiah Syed Salim
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study explores the role of corporate governance in carbon-intensive and non-carbon-intensive companies within Malaysian smart cities. The paper aims to understand the challenges and impacts of corporate governance on carbon and financial performance. In the first stage, carbon emissions data from 51 Bursa Malaysia-listed companies were analysed, revealing that corporate governance had no significant impact on carbon and financial performance. However, variations were noted in carbon-intensive industries. Liquidity emerged as a key factor positively affecting carbon performance, while firm size and market-to-book value were the main drivers of financial performance. In the second stage, a survey of 256 firms highlighted a high level of awareness regarding the significance of carbon reporting practices. Challenges included complexity regarding carbon reporting and knowledge limitations. The study advocates for the centralisation of carbon accounting standards, sharing best practices, and fostering of global collaboration to bolster effective climate action. These findings offer empirical evidence crucial for informing policymakers, companies, investors, and regulators alike. Future research could expand with larger samples, explore digital technology’s role in smart cities, and compare carbon reporting practices globally.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economy, Smart Cities, Carbon Emissions, Corporate Governance, and Energy
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

68. City Amenities and Internal Migration: Evidence from Chinese Cities

Author:
Karma Wangdi and Shandre Mugan Thangavelu
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper provides new empirical evidence of city amenities’ role in China’s internal migration using a unique city-level dataset. The results highlight the positive effects of city amenities such as education, public facilities, transportation, environment, and climate conditions in attracting migrant workers to cities. In our study, migrant workers are more likely to move to cities with better education, more public facilities, higher coverage of urban pensions, and a cooler climate with more precipitation. Moreover, they prefer to migrate and live in cities with larger service agglomeration and employment, higher average wages, more job opportunities, and lower house prices
Topic:
Development, Labor Issues, Cities, Internal Migration, and Amenities
Political Geography:
China and Asia

69. Urban Amenities and Regional Performance: Case Study of Indonesia

Author:
Titik Anas, Widdi Mugijayani, Estiana Cahyawati, and Muhammad Ridho
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the importance of urban amenities to economic development using Indonesia as a case study. Indonesia has rich micro-level data on urban amenities, which we group in this paper into 12 categories, namely education, health, religious, and shopping facilities; accommodations; banks; historical sites; recreation sites; restaurants; public transportation stations; modern shopping facilities; and gas stations. Using panel data of 2007 and 2014, we test how urban amenities affect regional development, proxied by employment and population growth. We show that education and shopping facilities significantly affect the growth of employment and population. We also found that the effect of the availability of education facilities is stronger in the regions with industrial parks.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Services, Productivity, and Amenities
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

70. Carbon Capture Storage and Utilisation (CCUS) Development in Thailand

Author:
Twarath Sutabutr
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Thailand is a developing country with a growing economy, which has led to increased energy consumption and carbon emissions. To tackle this issue, the Royal Thai Government has implemented several policies and initiatives to reduce the country’s carbon footprint and promote sustainable development. Carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) has just become one of Thailand’s policies to help push a low-carbon agenda and to enable net-zero emissions in 2065. The Thailand National Committee on Climate Change Policy approved the establishment of the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Steering Committee, which initiated the technology applications for the country’s first CCUS. The committee’s mission is to accelerate the actions that can mitigate climate impacts by applying CCUS technology in the energy and industry sectors, leveraging the knowledge and experiences in the petroleum exploration and production industry. This first CCUS pilot project, originally initiated by a team in the PTT Group, is the Thailand CCUS HUB Project. This paper summarises the conceptual design and actions required to start implementing the project.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Carbon Emissions, and Carbon Capture
Political Geography:
Asia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

71. Regional Amenities, Services Offshoring, and Skilled Employment in the Republic of Korea

Author:
Ju Hyun Pyun
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study empirically examines the effect of services offshoring and regional amenities on the composition of skilled employment for services firms. Analysing Korean firm-level data spanning from 2006 to 2019, we find that services offshoring, characterised by the import of services intermediate inputs, correlates with an increase in the proportion of skilled workers within firms. Additionally, the effects of this shift are nuanced based on different skill levels: services offshoring leads to an increase in the share of permanent headquarters workers to total workers. However, it does not affect the share of high-end skilled workers, such as headquarters’ share of management and research and development (R&D) workers. Moreover, regional amenities promote the positive effect of services offshoring on permanent headquarters workers’ shares. Lastly, the positive effect of offshoring on demand for high-end skilled workers in headquarters is significantly greater for firms with higher R&D intensity.
Topic:
Employment, Human Capital, Services, Skilled Labor, Research and Development, and Offshoring
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

72. Structural Transformation and Economic Resilience: The Case of Malaysia

Author:
Cassey Lee
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Exports have been a critical source for the resilience of the Malaysian economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic period. Long-term structural change in intersectoral production networks could have reduced this resilience. Stronger domestic intersectoral linkages and declining participation in backward global value chain participation are likely to reduce the impact of positive export shocks on the country’s economy. The services sector has become increasing important over time. Consumption in the services sector is clearly an important driver of growth. A positive export shock is enhanced by higher domestic intersectoral linkages in the services sector but not in manufacturing.
Topic:
Economy, Exports, Macroeconomics, Services, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

73. Have Dynamic Spillovers and the Connectedness of Trade Policy Uncertainty Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Sino–US Trade Frictions?

Author:
Chien-Chiang Lee and Farzan Yahya
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the spillover and connectedness between the trade policy uncertainty (TPU) of the United States (US), China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea) under global geopolitical risk (GPR), infectious disease equity market volatility (EMVID), and GPR from North Korea (GPRNK) using a relatively novel time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach. Additionally, method of moments quantile regression is utilised to estimate the asymmetric effect of GPR, GPRNK, and EMVID on TPU. Our findings suggest that there is a high total and directional spillover amongst underlying variables during Sino–US trade friction that further elevated during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic period. The US is a net receiver of spillover from the TPU of all economies, while the Chinese TPU receives spillover from EMVID. The results further confirm that both the TPU of China (TPUCN) and the TPU of the US (TPUUS) are vulnerable to EMVID, but the effect is stronger for Chinese TPU in the higher quantiles. Although Japanese TPU is less vulnerable to GPR and EMVID, it is significantly exposed to GPRNK. Korean trade shows resiliency and immunity to pandemic-induced volatility and GPRNK.
Topic:
Trade Wars, Trade Policy, COVID-19, and Spillovers
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

74. The Effect of COVID-19 on Firms’ Behaviour: The Case of Japan

Author:
Yuting Chen and Bin Ni
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Since the onset of the coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) pandemic, social distancing practices and government‐mandated lockdowns have become the norm. These have cut off interaction amongst people, firms, and society, triggering an even larger decline in economic activity. In this study, we apply annual Japanese foreign affiliate data to quantify how COVID-19 has affected firms’ behaviour in various aspects. The estimation results show that both the revenue and purchasing behaviour of Japanese foreign affiliates were affected during COVID-19. This negative impact is mainly through the channel of stringent regulations imposed by host countries where affiliates are located. The general result we can derive from these findings is that COVID-19 negatively affects Japanese firms engaged in overseas activities. This leaves us with the question of when external shocks such as COVID-19 stand in the way of firms’ overseas activities, and what role the government should play to achieve a balance between safety and economic revival.
Topic:
Trade, COVID-19, Performance Evaluation, and Firms
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

75. COVID-19 and Firm Response: Evidence from China

Author:
Dongmin Kong, Chen Liu, and Mengxu Xiong
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper explores the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on firm response. Using a novel COVID-19 sentiment index, our estimation shows that the pandemic significantly reduced the overseas revenue and profits of firms listed on the Chinese A-share market. Moreover, we observe that an increase in loans, and a drop in debt financing cost and trade credit, were prominent during the pandemic. We contend that reduced cash flows, which damaged firm operations; government support, which provided more financing channels; and increased default risks, which placed barriers on trade credit, are the plausible mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic affects firm performance. Profit contraction was more pronounced for firms with a lower ratio of domestic content in exports and state-owned enterprises, while external financing was easier for firms subject to stringent financial constraints despite their lowered trade credit.
Topic:
Trade, COVID-19, and Firms
Political Geography:
China and Asia

76. Quantitative Analysis of Optimal Investment Scale and Timing for Flood Control Measures by Multi-Regional Economic Growth Model: Case Studies in Viet Nam

Author:
Hiroaki Ishiwata, Masashi Sakamoto, Makoto Ikeda, and Venkatachalam Anbumozhi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study aims to develop and utilise a multi-regional economic growth model that can take into account flood damage and investment in disaster risk reduction, and, through case studies in Viet Nam, quantitatively analyse the long-term effects of investment in disaster risk reduction on the national and local economy, as well as the optimal scale and timing of investments in flood protection, to gain a better overview of these factors. The results indicate that additional investment in disaster risk reduction could stimulate economic growth, and that the optimal range of the disaster risk reduction budget rate was around 0.3% to 0.5% of GDP, assuming a constant budget rate throughout the total 25-year calculation period. In the case of a variable disaster risk reduction budget rate, we observed that a variable budget rate that gradually reduces the disaster risk reduction budget rate from a higher level than the current rate could further promote economic growth than if the budget rate were fixed. In both cases, we verified that with excessive investment in disaster risk reduction, the high tax burden had the risk of reducing investment in production capital and lead to stagnating economic growth. By region, the long-term effects of investment in disaster risk reduction were most seen in the Central region, where the rate of flood damage is the highest.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Investment, Flood, and De-Risking
Political Geography:
Asia, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia

77. Agricultural Production as a Coping Strategy during the Covid-19 Pandemic? Evidence from Rural Viet Nam

Author:
Hai-Anh Dang and Cuong Viet Nguyen
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
We examine the Covid-19 pandemic-induced negative effects on household welfare in rural Viet Nam. Analysing recent Viet Nam Household Living Standard Surveys spanning 2016–2021, we find robust evidence that lockdown measures resulted in a 3.9% reduction in per capita income and a 2.6 percentage-point increase in the headcount poverty rate of rural households. It also had severe effects on rural households’ wages and self-employed non-farm income, but rural households appeared to have relied on farm income to cope with the lockdowns. Each additional month under lockdown reduced wage income and non-farm income by 2.8% and 6.3% respectively but increased crop income by 9.5%, livestock income by 7.1%, and other farm income by 12.2%.
Topic:
Agriculture, Rural, COVID-19, and Production
Political Geography:
Asia, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia

78. Local Social Governance in China: Spatial politics and social welfare

Author:
David S. G. Goodman
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
The policy goal of establishing local social governance in the People’s Republic of China since 2021 highlights two somewhat contradictory tendencies in its spatial politics. One is increased social welfare provision through economic, social and governmental institutions cooperating to create self-sustaining communities. The other is greater city-district and county level local control by the Communist Party of China. Local social governance remains in its infancy with limited policy implementation. The evidence to date though from an examination of the settings for local social governance, its causes, and preliminary implementation does not suggest major changes in the longer-term balance between the Party-state’s undoubted centralist and decentralist tendencies. Moreover, while there may be the desire both to improve social welfare provision, and to extend the reach of the state and the Party, the proposed programme of change faces immense and probably intractable challenges.
Topic:
Governance, Public Policy, and Social Welfare
Political Geography:
China and Asia

79. Understanding Elite Politics Through Relentless Research: Warren Sun’s Hua Guofeng Nianpu, Chronology of Hua Guofeng (1971–1981)

Author:
Frederick C. Teiwes
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
This Working Paper is a pre-publication review of an immense documentary collection prepared over the past 25 years by Warren Sun, Adjunct Associate Professor at Monash University and Affiliate Member of the Sydney CSC. It is based on the intellectual premise that elite politics in the CCP cannot be understood without deep penetration into the details of political decision-making and conflict. In its absence, simplistic narratives emerge and become widely accepted, especially when the Party itself is creating the basis for the narrative. This is most prevalent for the immediate post-Mao period as a Hua Guofeng-Deng Xiaoping struggle between different ideological lines and in the profound misunderstanding of Hua as a limited, merely transitional political leader. Hua nianpu uses a wide range of sources to uncover details that contest such views. These include: the contemporary PRC public record; official documentary collections; internal Party documents including unpublished speeches and compendia of circulars at major Party meetings; memoirs, oral accounts, and recollections published in the PRC by or about leaders; studies by Party history scholars in PRC journals; more-adventurous books published in Hong Kong by Party historians and former officials; interviews with scholars and retired officials; and unique interviews with officials who worked as secretaries or as aides to very senior figures and their family members, especially members of Hua’s family. However, these sources have limitations that must be considered critically and discussed in terms of what they can and cannot provide. Taken together the detailed information compiled in Hua nianpu undermines central features of the accepted narrative, most notably by showing that the 1978 work conference and the subsequent Third Plenum were joint Hua-Deng ventures to advance modernization, and when unanticipated developments weakened Hua, Deng did not act against him. Instead, he worked to lower tensions and to return the focus to their original joint plan. Hua nianpu is a major basis for our joint book project, Hua Guofeng, Deng Xiaoping, and the Dismantling of Maoism. But this nianpu is entirely Professor Sun’s creation and exacting work. The target for submission of both these projects to their respective publishers is early 2025.
Topic:
Politics, History, Elites, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Hua Guofeng
Political Geography:
China and Asia

80. Supply Chain Risks in EU-South Korea Relations: Semiconductor Industries

Author:
Sunkung Choi
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Recent geopolitical crises and the Covid-19 pandemic have exposed weaknesses in global supply chains, leading to disruptions in the flow of goods and creating shortages. The semiconductor shortage crisis between 2020-2021 exacerbated these issues, particularly affecting industries reliant on chips. This crisis prompted governments and industries to prioritise resilience and independence in supply chains. This paper examines the causes, effects and implications of the supply chain crisis, focusing on the economic relations between the EU and South Korea. Both parties recognise the importance of addressing supply chain vulnerabilities and have initiated collaborative efforts to strengthen critical industries like batteries and semiconductors. Moving forward, strategic collaboration between the EU and South Korea will be crucial for effectively addressing the supply chain crisis. Measures such as enhancing supply chain resilience, investing in research and development and fostering technological cooperation are essential for ensuring economic stability and navigating future challenges.
Topic:
European Union, Trade, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Germany