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2321. Macro Comparisons without the Pitfalls: A Protocol for Comparative Research

Author:
J. Samuel Valenzuela
Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Comparative analysis is, with statistical and case study approaches, one of the three main tools for studying macrophenomena in the social sciences. This paper begins by delimiting its essential characteristics in contrast to the other two approaches, noting that it owes much of its strength to cases studies even though it focuses, like statistical methods, on explaining how phenomena vary, producing both similarities and differences among cases (the complex configurations of variables where the phenomena are studied). The paper then presents a protocol of research steps that must be followed in order to minimize the possibilities of error in using comparative analysis. It is easy to fall prey to such errors, given the many variables that must be examined in a smaller number of cases-the defining feature of this form of analysis. Juan Linz's work is frequently mentioned as among the most insightful in comparative analysis because it has followed, avant la lettre, the protocol presented here.
Topic:
Democratization, Social Movement, and Research
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and South America

2322. Time to Reinvent APEC

Author:
Edward Lincoln and Kenneth Flamm
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, provides an opportunity for 18 countries with strong trade and investment ties to discuss a wide range of economic issues. APEC has scored two tangible achievements to date: a sweeping but vaguely worded 1994 pledge by its member states to open up to free trade and investment by 2010 and 2020, and a central role in the negotiation of the 1996 Information Technology Agreement (ITA). However, APEC is in danger of fading. When this year's summit begins on November 19, the United States must push for major reform of the APEC bargaining process if the organization is to have any chance of realizing its ambitious trade reform targets.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

2323. Future Prospects for the U.S. Defense Budget and Their Implications for Our Asian Alliance Commitments

Author:
Andrew Krepinevich
Publication Date:
08-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This talk addresses two issues. First, given the level of American defense spending, are there enough resources available to sustain the U.S. presence in East Asia, over the long term, along the lines of the current commitment of approximately 100,000 troops? Second, even if there is adequate funding to maintain forward deployed troops, are these the kinds of investments we ought to be making, given the transformations we are seeing in the geopolitical environment and, I would argue, the military-technical environment? Will these investments, in other words, achieve American security objectives in East Asia over the next ten to twenty years?
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, America, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2324. U.S.-Japan Defense Guidelines: Toward a New Accommodation of Mutual Responsibility

Author:
Paul Giarra
Publication Date:
06-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War. The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, America, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union

2325. China's Foreign Economic Relations

Author:
K.C. Fung and Lawrence Lau
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
China's presence in the world economy continues to grow and deepen. The foreign sector of China plays an important and multifaceted role in the country's economic development. At the same time, China's expanded role in the world economy is beneficial to all its trading partners. Regions that trade with China benefit from cheaper and more varied imported consumer goods, raw materials, and intermediate products. China also provides a large and growing export market. While the entry of any major trading nation in the global trading system can create a process of adjustment, the outcome is fundamentally a win-win situation. It is a simple but powerful lesson from economics that freer international trade and investments benefit all parties concerned.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2326. Building China's Information Technology Industry

Author:
Stephen S. Cohen and Michael Borrus
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
At the October 29, 1997, summit meeting between President Jiang Zemin of the People's Republic of China ("China") and President Bill Clinton of the United States, President Jiang announced his government's commitment to join the Information Technology Agreement ("ITA") and thereby eliminate China's tariffs on semiconductors, computers and other information technology products. President Jiang also agreed that, in the context of the negotiations concerning China's accession to the World Trade Organization ("WTO"), China would make further substantial tariff reductions.
Topic:
Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

2327. From Partial to Systemic Globalization

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Far-reaching changes are currently occurring in the organization and location of the production of industrial goods and services, changes which are bound to have important implications for the welfare, the development potential, and the competitive position of different countries and regions. As competition cuts across national and sectoral boundaries and becomes increasingly global, firms everywhere are forced to shift from exports to international production. Today, dominance in a domestic market—even one as large as the U.S.—is no longer enough. Mutual raiding of established customer and supply bases has become an established business practice, with the result that firms are now forced to compete simultaneously in all major markets, notably in Europe, North America and Asia.
Topic:
Globalization and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and North America

2328. Partners for the China Circle?: The Asian Production Networks of Japanese Electronics Firms

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
The "China fever" that has raged through the Japanese industry over the last few years, has drastically changed the locational patterns of Japanese investment within East Asia. The share of China in the investment of Japanese electronics firms abroad has increased by leaps and bounds: from the measly 0.6% of 1990 ( the year after the Tianmen massacre), it has now reached almost 7%, catching up fast with the 7.7% share of ASEAN.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2329. Global Trends 2010

Publication Date:
12-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In fall 1996, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held a series of conferences at National Defense University to identify key global trends and their impact on major regions and countries of the globe. The exercise was designed to help describe and assess major features of the political world as they will appear in the year 2010.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and South America

2330. The Political Economy of Regional Development and Cooperation in the Pacific Basin, with Special Reference to APEC-A Rapporteurs' Report

Author:
Joseph Stevano and William Barnes
Publication Date:
04-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The papers and discussion summarized here were presented at the workshop “The Political Economy of Regional Development and Cooperation in the Pacific Basin, with Special Reference to APEC,” which was held at the Kellogg Institute, 12–14 October 1995. Some of the papers presented, including those by Yoji Akashi, Brian Job, and Clark Reynolds, will also be published in their entirety as part of the Kellogg Institute Working Paper Series. The United States, Canada, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and many other East Asian countries all belong to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and a distinctive feature of the workshop was that it consisted of experts from both sides of the Pacific. The result is a comprehensive look at the issues of trade and development in this region. Yorizumi Watanabe pointed out some tensions between regional and multilateral trade agreements. Satoshi Hanai’s paper analyzed the current Japanese recession; the papers by Akashi, Tsutomu Kikuchi, and Job focused on APEC, the former two from an Asian perspective, the latter from a North American—which provided a provocative contrast between different explanations and interpretations of the exact same events. Shozo Inouye analyzed Japan’s contribution to human resource development throughout the Asia-Pacific, while Michael Plummer and Reynolds analyzed the economic impact of economic integration in this region.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Asia

2331. The China-United States Bilateral Trade Balance: How Big Is It Really?

Author:
K.C. Fung and Lawrence Lau
Publication Date:
04-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
There are huge discrepancies between the official Chinese and U.S. estimates of the bilateral trade balance. The discrepancies are caused by different treatments accorded to re-exports through Hong Kong, re-export markups, and trade in services. Deficit-shifting between China, on the one hand, and Hong Kong and Taiwan, on the other, due to direct investment in China from Taiwan and Hong Kong, is partly responsible for the growth in the China United States bilateral trade deficit.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, Asia, and Hong Kong

2332. A United States Policy for the Changing Realities of East Asia

Author:
Donald Emmerson, Henry Rowen, Michel Oksenberg, Daniel Okimoto, James Raphael, Thomas Rohlen, and Michael H. Armacost
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, the power and prestige of the United States in East Asia have suffered a worrisome degree of erosion. The erosion is, in part, the by-product of long-run secular trends, such as structural shifts in the balance of power caused by the pacesetting growth of East Asian economies. But the decline has been aggravated by shortcomings in U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly the lack of a coherent strategy and a clear-cut set of policy priorities for the post-Cold War environment. If these shortcomings are not corrected, the United States runs the risk of being marginalized in East Asia--precisely at a time when our stakes in the region are as essential as those in any area of the world. What is needed, above all, is a sound, consistent, and publicly articulated strategy, one which holds forth the prospect of serving as the basis for a sustainable, nonpartisan domestic consensus. The elements of an emerging national consensus can be identified as follows:
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2333. Trojan Horse or Boomerang: Two-Tiered Investment in the Asian Auto Complex

Author:
Gregory W. Noble
Publication Date:
11-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
The last decade has witnessed a momentous transformation in the political economy of East and Southeast Asia. From the 1950s until the early 1980s transnational production played a limited role in the strategies of Northeast Asian governments and firms. Ubiquitous policies of protection and promotion aimed to increase domestic investment, production and exports. Governments discouraged outward investment through financial controls, particularly over foreign currencies; they limited inward foreign investment to narrowly confined niches, and then often subjected it to onerous restrictions to prevent foreigners from gaining a major foothold in the national economy. The few exceptions involved areas in which domestic production was inadequate: investments in Southeast Asian raw materials and energy; investments by Japanese and Western firms in Korea and Taiwan for some labor-intensive products to be sold in local or third-country markets (but rarely in Japan); and a handful of high-tech investments by Western firms such as IBM which enjoyed such strong patent positions that they could not be forced to license their technology. Since the mid-1980s the combination of rapid currency appreciation, rising costs of labor, land and pollution control in Northeast Asia, and liberalizing economic reforms in Southeast Asia led to a huge surge of direct foreign investment, mainly for the production of labor-intensive manufactured goods. The focal point of Northeast Asian economies shifted from export-led growth based on protected domestic markets to management of regional production networks spread throughout Asia.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Japan, Taiwan, Asia, and Korea

2334. Energy and Security in Northeast Asia

Author:
Michael May, Michael Stankiewicz, Edward Fei, Celeste Johnson, and Tatsujiro Suzuki
Publication Date:
08-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Since 1993, the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), a state-wide policy research institute of the University of California, has coordinated a series of high-level, track two consultations among security experts and officials from China, Japan, North and South Korea, Russia, and the United States. Known as the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), this forum has sought to reduce mistrust within the North Pacific region, and to avert conflicts among the major powers in Asia through ongoing, multilateral dialogues about current security issues. The informality of the process allows the participants to air their concerns and brainstorm about new approaches to building cooperation and reducing the risk of conflict in Northeast Asia.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Asia, Korea, and Northeast Asia

2335. The Major Powers in Northeast Asian Security

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa
Publication Date:
08-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The political, economic, and security environment of the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century will be shaped in very large part by the interrelationships among the United States, Japan, China, and Russia. To the extent these four nations can cooperate, a generally benign environment can develop in which the challenges sure to develop in the region can be managed. Conversely, tensions and conflict among the four will have a profoundly destabilizing impact regionally, if not globally.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Asia, and Northeast Asia

2336. Asian Economic Success and Latin American Failure in the 1980s: New Analyses and Future Policy Implications

Author:
Ajit Singh
Publication Date:
03-1994
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
A striking feature of the world economy during the last decade has been the collapse of economic growth in Latin America whilst industrialization and development have proceeded apace in the Asian countries. This paper first assesses alternative explanations of the Asian economic success and the Latin American failure during the 1980s. Secondly, it examines the related question of the long-term development strategies followed by the outstandingly successful East Asian economies. The paper arrives at rather different analyses and policy conclusions on these issues from those of the international financial institutions and the mainstream economists.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Economic Development, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Asia and Latin America

2337. Report of the Commission on Radio and Television Policy: Volume 6, Number 2

Publication Date:
09-1994
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
In September 1994, the Commission on Radio and Television Policy, bringing together the New Independent States, Poland, the Czech Republic, and the United States, met in St. Petersburg, Russia, to discuss the most important policy issue of the electronic media: how to strengthen the independence of radio and television. The members of the Commission represented several different approaches and types of government, but, in the end, there was unanimous agreement on a communiqué urging all parties to defend and extend autonomy of the media.
Topic:
Democratization and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

2338. The State, Markets, and Development: A Rapporteurs' Report

Author:
Enrique Dussel Peters and Matthew A. Verghis
Publication Date:
06-1993
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This report summarizes the papers and discussions from a conference held at the Kellogg Institute on "The State, Markets and Development." The first section addresses theoretical issues while the second presents the case studies discussed at the conference.
Topic:
Development, Markets, Economic Growth, and State
Political Geography:
Asia, South America, Central America, and Caribbean

2339. Juan Linz, Presidentialism, and Democracy: A Critical Appraisal

Author:
Scott Mainwaring and Matthew Shugart
Publication Date:
07-1993
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper briefly reviews and critically assesses Juan Linz's arguments about the perils of presidentialism. We largely agree with Linz that presidentialism as it is normally practiced is less likely than parliamentarism to sustain democratic government. Nevertheless, we introduce a number of caveats into the argument. Although we agree with most aspects of Linz's four major criticisms of presidentialism, we disagree with one of them: we argue that presidentialism is less oriented towards winner-takes-all results than Westminster parliamentary systems. We also claim that presidentialism has some advantages that partially offset its drawbacks. These advantages can be maximized by paying careful attention to differences among presidential systems; we build a case for presidencies with weak legislative powers. Presidentialism also appears to be more viable with parties that are at least moderately disciplined, and it is especially problematic with highly fragmented multiparty systems and with congressional elections that occur more frequently than presidential elections. Finally, we argue that switching from presidentialism to parliamentarism could exacerbate problems of governability in countries with very undisciplined parties. All of these points suggest that even if Linz is largely correct in his argument that parliamentary government is more conducive to stable democracy, a great deal rests on what kind of parliamentarism and what kind of presidentialism are implemented.
Topic:
Government, Governance, Democracy, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and South America

2340. Report of the Commission on Radio and Television Policy: Volume 5, Number 1

Publication Date:
11-1993
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Changing economic relations are among the most important issues in the future of telecommunications throughout the world. Everywhere, governments and private companies are attentive to profound changes introduced by the processes of privatization, democratization, and development and implementation of new technologies. The future is already upon us, with great speed and often unexpected consequences.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia