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2182. Containment by Stealth: Chinese Views of and Policies toward America's Alliances with Japan and Korea after the Cold War
- Author:
- Yu Bin
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- At the height of the Cold War, the dominant Western theories of alliance building in interstate relations argued that alliances tend to be motivated more by an external need to confront a clearly defined common adversary than by the domestic attributes of alliance partners. The newly reinvigorated U.S.-Japan alliance, however, together with the newly expanded NATO, seems to depart from the conventional pattern by emphasizing shared democratic values and by maintaining a high degree of ambiguity regarding the goals and targets of the alliance. Although these new features of American-led military alliances provide an anchor in an other- wise highly fluid situation in the post–Cold War world, many Chinese foreign-and defense-policy analysts believe that U.S. alliances with Asian countries, particularly with Japan, pose a serious, long-term challenge, if not a threat, to China's national security, national unification, and modernization. The ambiguity of the revised U.S.-Japan security alliance means that it is at best searching for targets and at worst aiming at China.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Asia, and Korea
2183. Crisis and Aftermath: The Prospects for Institutional Change in Japan
- Author:
- Rafiq Dossani
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Impelled in large part by the nearly decade-long stagnation of the Japanese economy, institutions in Japan are undergoing fundamental changes. When Professors Masahiko Aoki, of the Stanford University Department of Economics, and Henry Rowen, director of the Asia/Pacific Research Center, were talking about these changes, they realized that an international conference on the subject would be useful and informative. With funding from the Asia/ Pacific Research Center and the Institute for International Studies, a distinguished group of speakers, commentators, and participants was brought together for a one-day conference to look at institutional changes in three distinct sectors of Japanese society: the political system, the bureaucracy, and corporations.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Asia
2184. Nesting the Alliances in the Emerging Context of Asia-Pacific Multilateral Processes: A U.S. Perspective
- Author:
- Douglas Paal
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- As Americans consider their options for protecting and advancing their interests in Asia in the twenty-first century, it is natural that there will be wide-ranging views and vigorous debate. Recent events such as the 1996 Taiwan crisis, the Asian economic meltdown in 1997, and the exchange of state visits by presidents Bill Clinton and Jiang Zemin in 1997 and 1998 have intensified, then moderated and redirected, much of the debate over a very short span of time. Two years ago, for example, the Chinese were worrying aloud about American efforts to “encircle” China. Now they talk about “building a constructive strategic partnership with the U.S.” Despite these ups and downs, however, the fundamental choices for the United States have remained largely the same.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, Taiwan, and Asia
2185. When Realism and Liberalism Coincide: Russian Views of U.S. Alliances in Asia
- Author:
- Andrew C. Kuchins and Alexei V. Zagorsky
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Contemporary discussions of virtually any aspect of Russian foreign and security policy must take as their point of departure the extraordinarily weakened condition of the Russian Federation. There is no comparable case of such a rapid and dramatic decline in the status of a great power during peacetime in modern history. The Russian economy has been in a virtual free fall for most of the 1990s. The World Bank estimated the Russian GNP in 1997, using fixed exchange rates not adjusted for purchasing power parity, at $403.5 billion, making Russia the twelfth-largest economy in the world, just ahead of the Netherlands and just behind South Korea. Russian per capita GNP of $2,740 ranked fifty-first in the world and was in the category of “low middle” income countries. In 1997 the Russian GNP was about 5 percent of that of the United States, 8 percent adjusted for purchasing power parity. The figures for 1998 will be even starker given the devaluation of the ruble to approximately 30 percent of its 1997 value and continuing overall economic decline. A back-of-the-envelope calculation would have Russian GNP at the end of 1998 at no more than $120 billion and per capita GNP at less than $1,000.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Asia, South Korea, and Netherlands
2186. Adjusting America's Two Alliances in East Asia: A Japanese View
- Author:
- Takashi Inoguchi
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The alliances of the United States in East Asia are in a process of profound change (Okimoto 1998). The treaties with Japan and Korea are undergoing distinctive metamorphoses. These changes are the result of a number of forces that unfolded over the decades of the twentieth century, most notably the Cold War, globalization, and democratization (Inoguchi 1993, 1995; and Archibugi, Held, and Koehler 1996).
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, East Asia, and Asia
2187. Changing Relations between Party, Military, and Government in North Korea and Their Impact on Policy Direction
- Author:
- Jinwook Choi
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- North Korea has recently exhibited some noteworthy changes. In September 1998 it amended its constitution to change the power structure and introduced a number of progressive clauses. It also began to use the slogan “A Strong and Prosperous Nation,” which emphasizes economic prosperity as well as political, ideological, and military strength.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and Latin America
2188. China and the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Korea Alliances in a Changing Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Chu Shulong
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The American security alliances with Japan and South Korea have been a major concern of China's foreign and defense policies. China's position toward the alliances is determined by its foreign policy and security theories, doctrines, and principles; by its approach to a regional security mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region; by its bilateral relations with countries in Northeast Asia; and by incidental issues such as territorial disputes in Asia in which it is involved.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea
2189. New Estimates of the United States - China Trade Balances
- Author:
- Lawrence J. Lau and K.C. Fung
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The United States and China have vastly different official estimates of the bilateral trade imbalance. The U.S. figures show that the United States had a merchandise trade deficit of US$57 billion vis-à-vis China in 1998 whereas the Chinese figures show that China had a merchandise trade surplus of only US$21 billion vis-à-vis the United States. There is a difference of US$36 billion. Which set of figures is right?
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
2190. Seoul Domestic Policy and the Korean-American Alliance
- Author:
- B.C. Koh
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- While domestic politics helps to shape foreign policy, the two do not necessarily covary. That is to say, fundamental change in the former may not always trigger corresponding change in the latter. This is especially true of an alliance relationship, for a shared perception of an external threat that helps to sustain such a relationship is frequently unaffected by domestic political change.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Asia, and Korea
2191. Japan-ROK Security Relations: An American Perspective
- Author:
- Michael J. Green
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This monograph explores contemporary Japan-ROK security relations from the perspective of U.S. strategic interests in Asia. Japan and the Republic of Korea have been aligned but not allied since the beginning of the Cold War, and the United States has long been frustrated in its desire to strengthen the Japan-ROK leg of its network of bilateral alliances in Asia. The United States abandoned the goal of encouraging a formal U.S.-Japan-ROK alliance early on in the Cold War, and in the current strategic environment a trilateral alliance would probably be counterproductive. At the same time, however, the fluidity of East Asian security relations today has heightened the dangers of leaving the Japan-ROK security relationship in an ambiguous state. Closer Japan-ROK security cooperation will enhance U.S. efforts to maintain forward presence, manage diplomacy and potential crises on the Korean Peninsula, and integrate China as a cooperative partner in the region. In contrast, distant Japan-ROK relations would complicate all of these U.S. objectives. Hostile Japan-ROK relations, particularly in the context of Korean reunification, would have a spillover effect on Sino-U.S. relations and could return the region to the great-power rivalry of the last century.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea
2192. The Korean-American Alliance and the "Rise of China": A Preliminary Assessment of Perceptual Changes and Strategic Choices
- Author:
- Jae Ho Chung
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Does history repeat itself? It appears so for Korea as an unfortunate geopolitical pawn of its stronger neighbors for the last century or so. History does not seem to repeat in quite the same way, however. As Chinese diplomat Huang Zunxian recommended in 1880 that Chosun (Korea's official designation during the Yi Dynasty) “side with the Qing” ( qinzhong ) while relegating the relative importance of Japan and the United States to the levels of “aligning and connecting” ( jieri and lianmei ), respectively, Korea remained for the most part the most loyal subsystem of the Sinic world order, thereby missing out on opportunities for self-strengthening and realignment and eventually becoming a Japanese colony. More than a hundred years later, the Republic of Korea (hereafter Korea) may now be about to confront a similar dilemma, but this time with a reversed order of preferences. That is to say, the rise of China, with which Korea has already accomplished diplomatic normalization, may gradually force the Seoul government to reconfigure its Cold War–based strategic thinking and reassess its half-century alliance relationship with the United States.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and Korea
2193. Asian Alliances and American Politics
- Author:
- Michael H. Armacost
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The domestic politics of our Asian alliances is like the story of the dog that didn't bark. Though our defense ties with Japan and Korea were forged in the Cold War, nearly ten years after the Berlin Wall came down, few voices are being raised to amend, let alone terminate, either the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with Japan or the U.S.-Korea Mutual Defense Treaty. Although large numbers of U.S. troops remain in both countries, congressional criticisms of allied “free riding” are rarely heard. Our alliances with Japan and Korea provoke little discernible opposition from the Congress, the press, or the general public. Polling data suggests that public support for the alliances and for forward deployments in both countries remains high. And no prominent leaders of the Congress are threatening to link security concerns to outstanding economic issues with the Japanese or South Koreans—a tactic frequently utilized a decade ago.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Asia, and Korea
2194. Show of Force: The PLA and the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Author:
- Andrew Scobell
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- China conducted a series of military exercises and missile tests in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait between July 1995 and March 1996. On July 18, 1995, Beijing announced that missile tests would be conducted targeting an area some 90 miles off the coast of northern Taiwan. Then, on three consecutive days, July 21, 22, and 23, a total of six DF-15 missiles were launched from sites in Fujian province—two per day. The following month, after a five-day advance warning, PLA naval vessels and aircraft conducted ten days of live-fire tests off the coast of Fujian. Further military exercises were conducted in mid-November to the south of the Strait, including joint operations involving air, land, and naval arms of the PLA. On March 5, 1996, Beijing announced it would soon begin another round of missile tests. This time they were to be targeted at seas less than fifty miles from Taiwan's busiest ports. On March 8, three DF-15 missiles were fired from bases in Fujian. Five days later, another DF-15 missile was launched. Finally, also after advanced warning, live-fire tests and war games were conducted off the coast of Fujian to the north of the Strait and to the south of the Strait between March 12 and March 25. The maneuvers included amphibious landing exercises and aerial bombing. Some forty naval vessels, two hundred and sixty aircraft, and an estimated 150,000 troops participated.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia
2195. Hazards and Precautions: Tales of International Finance
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Erika Wada
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In the wake of financial crises in Mexico (1994-95), Asia (1997-98), Russia (1998) and Brazil (1998-99), respected observers have questioned the benefits of wide-open international capital markets (Bhagwati, 1998; Krugman, 1998; Rodrik, 1998; Eichengreen, 1999). Our purpose is to identify true hazards and suggest appropriate precautions.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Asia, Brazil, and Mexico
2196. The Cox Committee Report: An Assessment
- Author:
- Michael M. May, Alastair Iain Johnston, W.K.H. Panofsky, Marco Di Capua, and Lewis R. Franklin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The Cox Commission of the U.S. Congress was established in June 1998 to investigate concerns over Chinese acquisition of sensitive U.S. missile and space technology in connection with the launching of U.S. civilian satellites using Chinese launchers on Chinese territory. The investigations were broadened in October 1998 to include alleged security problems and possible espionage at the U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories. Some conclusions were released in January 1999 by the White House together with the administration's response. The full declassified (redacted) version of the report of the Cox Commission was released on May 25, 1999.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
2197. The Nonproliferation Regime under Siege
- Author:
- George Bunn
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The nuclear nonproliferation regime was challenged in 1998 by nuclear-weapon tests in India and Pakistan, by medium-range missile tests in those countries and in Iran and North Korea, by Iraq's defiance of UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to complete its disclosure of efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and by the combination of “loose nukes” and economic collapse in Russia. Additional threats to the regime's vitality came in 1999 from the erosion of American relations with both China and Russia that resulted from NATO's 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia—with additional harm to relations with China resulting from U.S. accusations of Chinese nuclear espionage and Taiwan's announcement that it was a state separate from China despite its earlier acceptance of a U.S.-Chinese “one China” agreement. Major threats to the regime also came from the continued stalemate on arms-control treaties in the Russian Duma and the U.S. Senate, from a change in U.S. policy to favor building a national defense against missile attack, and from a Russian decision to develop a new generation of small tactical nuclear weapons for defense against conventional attack.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Korea
2198. Commercialization of Russian Technology in Cooperation with American Companies
- Author:
- David Bernstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The Soviet Union placed a high priority on science and technology and built a huge assembly of research institutes, educational programs, design bureaus, and production enterprises embodying some measure of science and/or technology. This assembly concentrated over—whelmingly on military applications. Approximately three—quarters of this complex was located in Russia, but essential elements of many programs were located in other republics. The nature, structure, size, and operation of this military—industrial complex (MIC) as well as its decline and change during the Gorbachev and post—Soviet periods of economic transition have been documented in the literature.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
2199. Russian Federal Budget and the Regions
- Author:
- Alexei Makushkin
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- In the period of the Soviet rule public finances formed the basis of the national economy and, consequently, were the key factor determining the relationship between the Central power and the regions. Beginning with the proclamation of the sovereignty of the Russian Federation in 1 99 1 the role of the Center and the regions changed. The State has reduced its influence on the national economy, largely due to the reduction of the share of the GDP reallocated through the Central budgetary system. In 1 999 the volume of the budgetary reallocated product made only 14- 1 5% of the total. The relationship between the federal budget and the system of the regional finances became very complicated and oblique. The state economic sector has decreased, power has become decentralized in Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
2200. Russia and the World: A New Deal
- Author:
- Alexei Arbatov and Dag Hartelius
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- Ten years after the end of the Cold War, Russian leaders still have to recognize not only the irreplaceable importance of the Western countries and Japan as partners, but also the rapidly growing relative importance of the European Union, since the special relationship with the U.S., based on strategic deterrence, is becoming less relevant. The development of relations with the EU should now be at the top of the Russian agenda. This presents the EU with a certain challenge but is also an enormous opportunity for developing enlarged markets and advancing improved security. At the same time, the U.S. will remain a key partner for Russia in international affairs and in the handling of harmful Soviet legacies, such as disposing of nuclear and chemical wastes. Also, Russia will have to move towards deeper regional economic integration in East Asia instead of approaching the problems in this region from a traditional security perspective.
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, and Moscow