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1. Western Balkans’ Horizon 2023 – New uncertainties in a changed geopolitical setting

Author:
Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
“The age of uncertainty” has recently become the most used description for the time we live in. The aggression of Russia against Ukraine and the war approaching now its second year have changed the globe. Global uncertainties and huge geopolitical changes we witness are mirrored in European semiperipheral regions like the Western Balkans. The Western Balkans has been in a limbo for a while with no major progress towards the EU and democracy in general. Instead of steady democratization in the region we witnessed a gradual autocratization, most prominently in Serbia, and constant rise of crisis and tensions.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Autocracy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Balkans

2. Balancing Natural Resources and Human and Social Capital: Pathways to Economic Diversification in Mongolia

Author:
Thorvaldur Gylfason and Jean-Pascal N. Nganou
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Economic diversification has gained significant attention as a crucial factor for sustainable development worldwide. This paper addresses the risks associated with extreme specialisation and explores the potential benefits of economic diversification for Mongolia. By comparing Mongolia with its designated aspirational and structural peers, the paper aims to shed light on strategies that can foster economic and societal diversification in the country. Although Mongolia possesses favourable levels of human capital compared with its peers, its unusually high ratio of natural capital to human capital highlights the necessity of reducing reliance on natural resources and promoting human capital-intensive economic activities. The paper examines the implications of declining demand for Mongolia's key minerals, primarily coal, resulting from climate change concerns and evolving investor preferences towards sustainability, China's coal consumption reduction goals, and the enduring impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Through this analysis, the paper offers insights into pathways for Mongolia to diversify its economy and enhance the well-being of its people by striking a balance between natural resources and human and social capital.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Governance, Democracy, Economic Growth, Human Capital, Diversification, Macroeconomics, Social Capital, Transition, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Malaysia, Canada, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Armenia, Australia, Qatar, Chile, Peru, United Arab Emirates, Ecuador, and Guyana

3. Erdoğan’s Reelection Illustrates the Bleak Future of Turkish Democracy

Author:
Michael Werz
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
Turkey saw unprecedented political mobilization, partly because going to the ballot box offered one of the last opportunities to make one’s voice heard. But little changed.
Topic:
National Security, Elections, Democracy, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

4. Protecting Democracy Online in 2024 and Beyond

Author:
Megan Shahi
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
This new report specifically anticipates risks to and from the major social media platforms in the 2024 elections, continuing CAP’s work to promote election integrity online and ensure free and fair elections globally. The report’s recommendations incorporate learnings from past elections and introduce new ideas to encourage technology platforms to safeguard democratic processes and mitigate election threats. In a world without standardized global social media regulation, ensuring elections are safe, accessible, and protected online and offline will require key actions to be taken ahead of any votes being cast—both in 2024 and beyond.
Topic:
Politics, Science and Technology, Elections, Democracy, Social Media, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe, India, Global Focus, and United States of America

5. Europe’s Broken Order and the Prospect of a New Cold War

Author:
Kristi Raik and Eero Kristjan Sild
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The Russian and western visions of European security have profoundly different ideational roots: balance of power embedded in realist geopolitics versus liberal rules-based order. Russia is a revisionist power aiming to re-establish a European security order based on the balance of power, including a recognition of its empire and sphere of influence. Russia’s aggressive pursuit of this vision has forced the West to defend the rules-based liberal order in Europe and beyond. This report analyses the main sources and implications of Russia’s discontent with the post-Cold War European security order, which eventually led to the invasion of Ukraine. The disagreements are likely to endure beyond the war in Ukraine, leading to a new Cold War. The paper identifies three scenarios for the future of the European security order, the most likely one being a dual order, with the liberal rules-based order further strengthened and enlarged among western countries including Ukraine, while Russia will hold on to its imperialist ambitions but being forced to accept a much more limited sphere of influence than the former Soviet or tsarist empires. As long as the worldview that underlies Russia’s foreign policy does not change, any new balance of power will be temporary and under threat of renewed aggression once Russia has regained strength. In order to make it more sustainable, the West will need to eliminate grey zones, ensure credible deterrence and defence, and consistently weaken Russia’s ability to rebuild its military might.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Cold War, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Deterrence, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

6. Democracy under Threat: How the Personalization of Political Parties Undermines Democracy

Author:
Erica Frantz, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Joseph Wright, Jia Li, Carisa Nietsche, Nicholas Lokker, and Nicolas Rice
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
In 1998, Viktor Orbán was elected the prime minister of Hungary in free and fair elections. He was supported by the Fidesz party—a movement he founded in 1988 that became a political party in 1990. After losing reelection in 2002, Orbán returned to the prime ministership in 2010 having internalized the lesson that surviving in Hungarian politics “requires strong leadership and absolute control over the party.”1 From 2002 to 2010, Orbán increased his influence within Fidesz, including by changing the party constitution to give himself control of the selection of local party leaders, all parliamentary candidates, and the leader of the party’s parliamentary group. Orbán’s increasing influence within the party paved the way for his efforts over the next decade to remove checks on his power. His control over the party, along with Fidesz’s constitutional majority, enabled Orbán to change Hungary’s constitution in ways that weakened executive constraints, including from the Constitutional Court, the election commission, independent media, and civil society. Orbán’s disproportionate power within the political system allowed him to dismantle democracy in the years that followed, pushing Hungary into authoritarianism. This pattern of democratic decay is not unique to Hungary. Freedom House reports that democracy has been in decline for the last 16 consecutive years, with much of the deterioration occurring in countries classified as democracies.2 In some instances these declines left democracy compromised but intact (as in Poland). In other cases, the declines gave way to the onset of authoritarianism (as in Serbia). Importantly, along with the decline in democracy, there has been a clear change in the way that democracies are breaking down.3 Before 2000, coups were the primary way that democracies failed. Since 2000, however, incumbent takeovers—or the ability of democratically elected leaders to dismantle democracy from within—have grown more prevalent. In the 2010s, 64 percent of the democracies that broke down did so due to incumbent power grabs, while only 36 percent of those that collapsed did so because of a coup.4 Simply put, the greatest threat to democracy now comes from democratically elected leaders.
Topic:
Democracy, Political Parties, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

7. Red Lines Around a Free and Fair Polish Election

Author:
Josh Rudolph, Anna Wójcik, and Ayleen Cameron
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The October 15, 2023 Polish parliamentary election will not be fair. The country’s last fair election was in 2015, when the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) came to power and promptly set about undermining constitutional governance. Since then, the weakness of Poland’s rule-of-law system has enabled PiS to amend electoral law, reshape the media environment, exploit state-owned companies and other resources—including public funds—and engage in other autocratic subversions to tilt the playing field in Polish elections in favor of the ruling regime. However, the degree of unfairness in this election will hinge on actions taken by Polish authorities. The authorities should: Stop diverting state resources into media enterprises and political messaging campaigns meant to support PiS candidates, Commit to renewing the licenses of independent media outlets such as TVN, Stop using arbitrary fines to harass and weaken independent media outlets, Stop using the system for disciplining judges as a weapon against those who do not display loyalty to the PiS regime, Implement judgments of European tribunals, and ensure that rulings on the integrity of the election come from independent and impartial bodies. While the US government has struck the right tone in recent values-based remarks about the importance of electoral fairness, the message has not broken through a policy environment that is crowded on two levels. Most importantly, many experts and officials in Warsaw believe that the United States is reluctant to pressure its strongest ally in supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia—the Polish government—on matters of electoral fairness. But even if the United States is genuinely committed to pressing for electoral fairness in Poland, there are so many areas of democratic backsliding in the country that it is not clear which concrete threats are priorities for the United States. At every available opportunity, Poland’s allies should publicly reiterate the importance of respecting shared democratic values by holding fair elections. Privately, diplomats should warn Warsaw that crossing red lines around the four most consequential risks to the integrity of the upcoming Polish election would trigger unified public rebukes from NATO allies.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

8. Transatlantic Trends 2023: Public Opinion in a Shifting Global Order

Author:
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Martin Quencez, and Gusine Weber
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Transatlantic Trends 2023 presents the results of representative surveys conducted in 14 countries on both sides of the Atlantic: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Divided into five chapters, this report assesses public opinion on contemporary structural issues impacting the world order, transatlantic relations, security and defense, China, and global challenges.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, France, Poland, Germany, Global Focus, and United States of America

9. The Return of History: Countering the Decline of Democracy in Europe

Author:
Stuart Austin
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This article summarises discussion held at the Ratiu Dialogues on Democracy conference, held in Cluj (Romania) on 15-16 June 2023. Contributors to the discussion were: Dr Radu Albu-Comanescu, Prof Christopher Coker, Dr Adrian-Gabriel Corpadean, Prof Sumantra Bose, Prof Christopher Dandeker, Prof Michael Burleigh, Dr Mois Faion, Dr Marcin Fatalski, Dr Alexander Gerganov, Maja Kurilić, Prof Dominic Lieven, John Lloyd, Bálint Magyar, Prof Slobodan Markovich, Dr Oana-Cristina Popa, Wojciech Przybylski, Richard Ralph CMG CVO, Nicolae Ratiu, Emilia Șercan, Louisa Slavkova, and Dr Eric Weaver
Topic:
Democracy, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Europe

10. Vote for Free: A Global Guide for Citizen Monitoring of Campaign Finance

Author:
Magnus Ohman
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
he International Foundation for Electoral Systems is proud to publish the definitive guide, Vote for Free: A Global Guide for Citizen Monitoring of Campaign Finance, authored by Dr. Magnus Ohman, IFES’ Senior Political Finance Adviser. The eight-step guide draws on nearly a decade of work and the experiences of people around the world who have monitored how money has been raised and spent in campaigns. Intended for civil society entities, it focuses on approaches to monitoring campaign finance, disseminating findings and data, planning for project management and developing mechanisms for monitoring, evaluation and learning. A healthy democracy can only exist with transparency around how money enters and exits the democratic political process. Otherwise, corrupt political players with fat wallets wield power in governance, not the voters. Deterring the corrupting influence of money in the political process requires collaboration and action from lawmakers, political parties, the media and voters but more importantly, it demands the work of civil society.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Democracy, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. Guardrails for Democracy

Author:
Erica Shein and Katherine Ellena
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
Democracy thrives on the vibrant exchange of ideas, transparency, and confidence in government institutions. Corruption can have disastrous effects on democracy, from derailing a government’s response to a public emergency to driving distrust in democratic institutions and damaging the credibility of governments, both at home and abroad. Holding governments accountable and limiting opportunities for abuse is instrumental to maintaining public trust and to helping countries weather shocks to democracy. Independent governmental institutions – including Supreme Audit Institutions, National Human Rights Institutions, Anti-Corruption Authorities, Ombuds Institutions, and Election Management Bodies — are an essential part of the democratic fabric. These institutions should serve as guardrails to keep democracy on track, but, absent safeguards, can become ineffective, irrelevant, or even tools for state capture. This Guide draws on IFES’ evidence-based Autonomy and Accountability Framework (AAF) to support an assessment of threats, risks, and weaknesses in the autonomy and accountability of independent institutions at any stage of establishment or development. An institution can use the assessment to help insulate itself from political interference and conflicts of interest, shore up its ability to execute its mandate effectively and efficiently, and build or preserve public trust. The AAF also provides a blueprint for legislatures seeking to enshrine effective protections for new institutions in the law. This Guide can be used by an institution on its own or in collaboration with partners to conduct a thorough, introspective review of its own autonomy and accountability mechanisms, or by a civil society organization seeking to advance the work of a specific institution or inform the design of advocacy campaigns. Constitutional or legal drafting committees might also find this resource useful to identify key elements for reform. The Guide includes a series of question sets to identify and understand strengths and threats to autonomy and accountability, and to assist in identifying the specific considerations that may apply given the institution’s unique mandate, structure, or legal context. The Guide also includes sample strategies to fill the gaps identified in the assessment and build institutional resilience.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, Institutions, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Next-Generation Technology and Electoral Democracy: Understanding the Changing Environment

Author:
Samantha Bradshaw, Kailee Hilt, Eric Jardine, Florian Kerschbaum, Ulrike Klinger, Michael Pal, Aaron Shull, and Wesley Wark
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Democracies around the world are facing growing threats to their electoral systems in the digital age. Foreign interference in the form of dis- and misinformation has already influenced the results of democratic elections and altered the course of history. This special report, the result of a research project conducted in partnership with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Canada, examines these cyberthreats from a Canadian and German perspective. Both Canada and Germany share common goals centred around protecting human rights, democracy and the rule of law, and international peace and security. Using case studies from experts in fields such as computer science, law and public policy, the special report offers recommendations to guide policy makers and stakeholders on how to protect elections from next-generation technologies and the threats they pose to democracy.
Topic:
Environment, Science and Technology, Elections, Democracy, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, Germany, and North America

13. Democracy in the Middle East & North Africa

Author:
Michael Robbins
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Citizens across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are growing increasingly concerned about the potential problems associated with a democratic political system. Over the last decade, but particularly within the last five years, there has been a dramatic increase in the degree to which the region’s citizens believe democracies are bad for economic performance, stability, and decisiveness. In some countries, the degree to which concern about these potential problems has increased is especially dramatic. For example, Tunisians and Iraqis are now nearly 50 points more likely to say that democracy has some of these limitations than they were just a decade ago. Ultimately, citizens across MENA seek solutions to major problems in their lives. These include but are not limited to stagnant economies, high unemployment rates, rising cost of living, and, in some countries, internal instability. Until recently, many appeared to believe that democracy was a system that could solve such challenges. Over the last 75 years, democracies have tended to be wealthier, more politically stable, less corrupt, and more efficient at meeting the basic needs of citizens than authoritarian alternatives.1 In recent years, however, many non-democratic systems may appear more attractive, including the Chinese system that has led to rapid economic growth over the last 40 years. In this new global environment, many in MENA appear uncertain if democracy can effectively deliver solutions to their country’s problems.2 Moreover, looking at the experience of MENA countries over the last decade, it is perhaps not surprising that the region’s citizens have increasing doubts about the benefits of democracy. Tunisia, Lebanon, and Iraq are the countries across the region where elections have been the most meaningful over the past decade, with each having experienced a change in government based on results at the ballot box. Yet, their collective experience clearly demonstrates that democracy has not been a panacea for their respective challenges. Tunisia’s GDP per capita is now lower than it was in 2011, Lebanon has faced financial collapse, and Iraq suffered significant internal instability
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Democracy, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

14. The Importance of Democracy Promotion to Great Power Competition in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Rebecca Aaberg
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
There are many reasons to believe democracy and democracy promotion are imperative in the great power competition with China, which is occurring with ever-greater intensity in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). LAC has played host to great power competition in previous eras, but in grand strategic terms, competition with China in the twenty-first century is fundamentally different than the rivalry of the Cold War against Soviet Russia. Whereas during the Cold War the United States supported friendly, anti-communist military regimes in LAC, success against China in the twenty-first century will necessitate robust support for democracy, liberal institutions, and democracy promotion. The Kirkpatrick Doctrine—which advocated for supporting “friendly authoritarian” regimes that went along with Washington’s aims—applied so deliberately to LAC during the Cold War, is outmoded and likely to be highly counterproductive today. On the contrary, there are many reasons to believe that successfully countering China in great power competition will be intimately linked to the democratic health of LAC as a region. This is the democracy imperative. This paper begins with background on U.S. policy toward LAC during the Cold War. Then, it places the question of a Kirkpatrick Doctrine for the twenty-first century within the context of great power competition with China and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has prompted the Biden administration to consider re-engaging pariah regimes such as the Maduro dictatorship in Venezuela. The paper will then adumbrate reasons why great power competition with China is fundamentally different than previous iterations of competition against Soviet Russia, which saw U.S. support for anti-communist military regimes.
Topic:
Security, Hegemony, Democracy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, North America, and United States of America

15. Brazil: Five Phenomena and Three Scenarios

Author:
Lauri Tahtinen
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Brazil heads into the second round of its general election on Sunday, October 30. This will include runoffs for the governorships in 12 of Brazil’s 26 states, including São Paulo, the most populous and wealthy state. However, most eyes are on the presidential race in which incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is seeking his second term in office and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking his third. In the first round on Sunday, October 2, Lula received 48.4 percent of the vote and Bolsonaro received 43.2 percent. This analysis paints three scenarios for Brazil’s election. The baseline for these scenarios is Lula’s narrow win, and a narrow win for Lula remains the most plausible outcome. If the trends prevalent in September have accelerated through October, Bolsonaro could win narrowly. Conversely, if the trends of September decelerate or even reverse in October, Lula could win handsomely. Based on the first-round results, earlier runoffs, and simple election math, a major Bolsonaro victory is not a realistic outcome.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Leadership, Voting, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

16. Democratic Backsliding in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Hudson Institute
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
A negative trend of democratic recession has steadily unfolded across the Indo-Pacific region since the 2010s. Subregionally, Southeast Asia has suffered from the most severe drop in democracy scores, while East Asia and South Asia have experienced a moderate decrease. Oceania remains the most democratic subregion and has achieved a slight increase in its democracy scores. There has been a remarkable shift of balance from democratic advancement to democratic backsliding in the Indo-Pacific. In the three years from 2019 to 2021, the percentage of political regimes experiencing democratic backsliding surpassed those making democratic advancement. Evidence also shows that democratic recession is much more pronounced in populous societies than in sparsely populated societies. Overall, both the number and percentage of people living under autocratic-leaning regimes and autocratic regimes have reached record high levels. Democratic recession in the Indo-Pacific is caused by the coupling of domestic and geopolitical forces. Domestically, democratic recession has principally been driven by deep-rooted cleavages inherent within the countries and territories where illiberal strongmen, including populist leaders, army generals, and nationalist state leaders, exploit such cleavages to reinforce their repression of democracy. Geopolitically, under a multipolar Indo-Pacific, illiberal powers including China and Russia are expanding their spheres of influence by providing support to illiberal strongmen across the region. Traditionally, “democracy” and “security” are seen as two separate fields in the policy world. The major findings of this report, which documents the coupling of domestic and geopolitical forces in causing democratic recession across the Indo-Pacific, raises questions on the validity of the conventional thought pertaining to democracy promotion and security competition. Today, the Indo-Pacific region presents the free world with a double-challenge of democratic recession and security competition, indicating that it’s the time to tear down the longstanding artificial wall between democracy and security. There is an urgent need to invest in new knowledge infrastructures that can provide integrated strategic analysis to policymakers and practitioners.  
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Indo-Pacific

17. The International Dimension of the U.S. Strategy on Countering Corruption

Author:
Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The first Strategy on Countering Corruption, adopted on 6 December 2021, assumes that by making better use of existing international regulations and organisations, as well as by establishing new mechanisms, the U.S. will tighten global anti-corruption cooperation. The American goal is to limit the freedom to conduct financial operations by authoritarian states, mainly China and Russia, and at the same time to strengthen democratic countries and promote democracy. For Poland, this is an opportunity to tighten bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the United States.
Topic:
Corruption, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

18. Beyond Elections: Evolving Arab Public Opinion on Democracy and Human Rights

Author:
Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
U.S. efforts in the region stand a better chance of success if they consider rising demand for accountable governance, skepticism about democratic institutions, and various nation-specific trends. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the fourth essay in the series—covering public opinion on democracy and human rights in Arab states—Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock note a cooling toward democratic institutions, a trend undoubtedly driven by failures in Tunisia, Lebanon, and Iraq. They discuss corresponding distrust in legislative bodies and high frustration with corrupt governance. Islamist leaders, they observe, come in for increasingly sharp critique. All in all, the findings emphasize a strong public demand for better governance outcomes and, in turn, the benefits as well as limits of U.S. democracy and human rights promotion in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Islam, Politics, Public Opinion, Reform, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

19. Reexamining U.S. Aid to the Middle East: Ideas for Advancing Both Governance and Democracy

Author:
Ben Fishman
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Massive U.S. investment has failed to improve outcomes since the Arab Spring uprisings. A more targeted, sensitive approach could yield better results and promote regional stability. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the fifth essay in the series, Ben Fishman probes the conundrum of U.S. democracy and governance assistance, wherein billions of dollars have failed to improve outcomes on a range of measures since the Arab Spring uprisings. The former regional National Security Council director traces U.S. support for democratic movements from its Cold War origins to the present day, concluding that a more effective approach must better align policy and spending priorities, account for the challenges facing individual countries, and focus on supporting local governing bodies, independent media, and anti-corruption efforts. Otherwise, the region could well become less free and more prone to fiercer future uprisings.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, Governance, Reform, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

20. The Tenacity of Young Iranians in the Protest Movement

Author:
Haleh Esfandiari
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Despite the regime's crackdown, Iranian protestors are showing unprecedented resilience and unity in their demands, making the international community's next steps even more crucial. Once again, Iranians have come out into the streets to protest against their government, its policies, and its leaders. Once again they face a regime that has proved itself tone-deaf to widespread public discontent—responding instead with brutality, arrests, mass trials, and executions. But this recent wave of protests has proved different. The regime is being confronted by its own children—a generation of young women and men who seek not just reform, not just an easing of controls, but a regime change. The protest movement was triggered when 22-year old Mahsa Amini died while in police custody, beaten to death by the morality police on September 16 because the form of her hijab was not to their liking. Protests quickly erupted immediately after her death, and they are now in their third month.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Reform, Democracy, Economy, Youth, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

21. Hamas at 35

Author:
Devorah Margolin
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A look back at the group’s track record and unchanging core ideology shows why its gestures toward democracy and inclusivity should not be mistaken for true moderation. On December 14, Hamas celebrated the thirty-fifth anniversary of its founding. In addition to unveiling a new logo, the group held a rally in Gaza City, where it showed off the gun of slain Israeli soldier Hadar Goldin, released numerous statements reiterating its goals, and hinted at future conflicts with Israel. Such hostile displays are no surprise given the course of the group’s ideological and political development over the past four decades.
Topic:
Economics, Terrorism, Reform, Democracy, Hamas, and Energy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

22. 2021 Civil Society Organizations Sustainability Index

Author:
Megi Reci and Daniel Prroni
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
On 15th of December 2022, the Institute for Democracy and Mediation presented the key findings of the 2021 Civil Society Organizations Sustainability Index (CSOSI). This annual index, presents the status and development trends of civil society in 74 countries around the world, focusing on the legal environment, organizational capacity, financial sustainability, advocacy, service provision, sector infrastructure and public image. The 2021 CSOSI on Albania provided an assessment of the enabling environment for the civil society sector by analyzing a number of important developments that took place during 2021. Although the overall sustainability of CSOs did not change, there were slight deteriorations in the legal environment, advocacy and public image dimensions. The legal environment suffered a decline due to some changes in the legal framework affecting CSOs. Prolonged restrictions on gatherings, limited transparency, and the lack of opportunities to consult with the government hindered CSO advocacy initiatives, while the public image of the sector slightly deteriorated as a result of ongoing attacks on CSOs and activists. Other dimensions of CSO sustainability remained largely unchanged. The report on Albania was written by IDM in partnership with FHI 360 and International Center for Not-for-Profit Law, with the support of USAID. It is based on discussions with a panel of Albanian experts, primary data gathered through qualitative research methods, as well as data gathered from a survey administered with local CSOs.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, Social Order, and Civil Society Organizations
Political Geography:
Europe and Albania

23. Cooperation Between Municipalities and Civil Society for Local Democracy

Author:
Itır Akdoğan
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Given the fact that almost all ecological, economic, political, and social problems around the world are essentially urban issues today, the democratization of urban governance is becoming even more vital of a concern. In order to be able to speak of democratic local governance, all stakeholders of the city are expected to be involved in urban government. One way to achieve this is to plan, implement, and monitor partnerships between municipalities and civil society in a way that strengthens local democracy. When thinking of cooperation with the public sector, civil society organisations (CSOs) in Turkey still tend to think of the municipalities first. In reality, these kind of partnerships tend to be generally far from democratic due to different political, legal, technical and cultural barriers. The analysis and discussions in this report examine the legal framework regarding cooperation between municipalities and CSOs, the policy trajectory in development plans, the factors that support and hinder cooperation, as well as efforts undertaken to strengthen it, in particular TESEV’s Empowering Civil Society for a More Democratic Local Governance Project, which the foundation carried out within the scope of the European Union’s Partnerships and Networks for Enhancing Cooperation Between the Public Sector and CSOs funding program.
Topic:
Civil Society, Governance, Democracy, and Municipalities
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

24. India’s Political Parties

Author:
Rahul Verma, Nishant Ranjan, Satyam Shukla, Vaibhav Parik, Shamik Vatsa, and Melvin Kunjumon
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
A study of democracy is incomplete without a study of one of its most fundamental components—political parties. In India, works on the country’s political parties so far have explored, among other things, the direct and indirect relationship between the nature and type of political parties and the different facets of the state and governance. One such recurring theme is the exploration of the overall structure of federalism i.e relationship between the centre and state governments(Gardner 2013; Jenkins and Roscoe 2014; Borges 2011). The influence of political parties on the level of centralization and decentralization has not only impacted the federal structure of the country but has also influenced voters in choosing national parties over regional players(Chhibber and Kollman 1998). This ability of the national political parties to overall influence state-level politics has majorly impacted the regional autonomy of states(Gardner 2013). The transition of the Indian political system into a dominant party system centred around the BJP in the past decade provokes us to see how the changes in the party system are translated across states in India. Initially, we will consider broad and empirical evidence to study the formation, survival and dissolution or exit of parties in India. Here, we show how and when parties in India are formed, what factors impact their survival and what causes their eventual decline and exit. This section is the product of research conducted on a dataset developed over the course of the year. This dataset profiles all parties in all Indian states for legislative assembly elections conducted between 1962 and 2021inclusive. We first start by looking at periods of high formation and dissolution of political parties and find how many of India’s parties fail to last, ending up exiting the competition after a single election. We subsequently differentiate between the types of parties being formed: are they new and organically arising, or are they the product of splintering and shifting within existing parties? Our research does show that many successful parties are not entirely new and there are a significant number of key parties in states that have links to older national parties. This is especially true for the several parties that split from the INC, or ones that emerged from the breakup of the Janata Parivar of parties. Later in this section, we also look at state-wise trends of entry and exit of parties in any given election, and how new entrants perform in comparison to more established players. The results suggest that except in certain regions, the hold of older parties has increased, specifically post-1989,whilstsignificantchange happened before it. It also goes on to suggest that the polity of India’s states may be far more stable than frequently suggested. In the second part of the report, we see how national and regional parties are changing across states in three broad fields—ideologically, in their support bases and in their mobilization strategies and organizational capabilities. We have approached state-level experts in political parties and elections through an online survey to evaluate the parties in the above-mentioned parameters. Insights available from elite surveys(or expert surveys)conducted in the past decades present a national picture of major players in Indian politics in terms of their presence and organizational strength, but we have little to no insights into regional parties and how national parties organize themselves at the state level.
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

25. The Civic Space GPS

Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
The civic space - the sphere between business, the State, and family where citizens organize, debate, and act to influence public policy and the general direction of the country — is under attack. Attacks against civic space constitute a threat to transparency, to the freedoms of expression, assembly, and protest, and to civil and political rights. They are in direct conflict with the rights and freedoms guaranteed in the Brazilian Constitution and in countless international conventions and treaties. And they are a grave threat to democracy itself. The closure of civic space is not exclusive to Brazil. However, deliberate attempts to diminish it are becoming increasingly common in the country. This is why the Igarapé Institute is launching the “the Civic Space GPS”, a quarterly analysis dedicated to monitor attacks, acts of resistance led by State institutions, as well as reactions from civil society. It considers the typology created by the Igarapé Institute to describe the different strategies and tactics used to close the civic space and described in the Strategic Paper 49: “The ‘Agora’ is Under Attack: assessing the closure of civic space in Brazil and Around the World”.
Topic:
Democracy, Business, Freedom of Expression, State, Family, Political Rights, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

26. Towards Authoritarianism: Kyrgyzstan’s Internal and Foreign Policy Perspectives

Author:
Arkadiusz Legieć
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Sadyr Japarov, the leader of the autumn protests that led to the removal from power of the previous president, Soronbai Jeenbekov, won the early presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan on 10 January. In a parallel consultative referendum, voters supported the change of the state system to the presidential system proposed by Japarov, which includes the liquidation of parliament. One consequence may be the evolution of the political system of Kyrgyzstan towards an authoritarian model similar to those in other Central Asian countries. That would have a negative impact on relations with the EU, which supports democratic reforms in Kyrgyzstan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Reform, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Referendum
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan

27. The Pandemic in the Balkans: Geopolitics and Democracy at Stake

Author:
Giorgio Fruscione, Michael L. Giffoni, Gentiola Madhi, Chiara Milan, Jovana Marovic, Giorgio Fruscione, and Nikolaos Tzifakis
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
One year after it landed in Europe, the Covid-19 pandemic has left a deep mark on the Western Balkans. On the one hand, it has exacerbated geopolitical dynamics that had been ongoing for decades, especially with regards to the activity of external actors. And while the EU has continued to be inconclusive, proceeding at a snail’s pace with its carrot-and-stick approach, China has seized on the opportunity and expanded its footprint. On the other hand, the pandemic has had deep consequences on domestic politics, too. The two keywords explaining local trends are continuity and new hopes. They are both shaping the speed and direction of democratic transitions or consolidations, which remain far from complete. How has the geopolitical competition among big powers evolved in the Balkans over the last year? What have been the effects of the pandemic on local democratic standards? Is there room for new hopes in terms of regime change and citizen participation?
Topic:
Democracy, Geopolitics, Domestic Politics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

28. Europe’s last chance: How the EU can (and should) become the indispensable actor in Venezuela’s democratic restoration

Author:
Ryan C. Berg and Jorge González-Gallarza
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The EU’s current policy approach toward Venezuela is insufficient to contribute meaningfully to a political transition in the country and protect human rights. Oftentimes, the EU’s policy has been at odds with the US, having permitted unrelated disagreements to cloud its recognition of its strategic interest in a free, prosperous, and democratic Venezuela. The Nicolas Maduro regime’s illicit investment schemes have found fertile ground in the EU at large, with a particular hotspot in Spain. A torrent of investments and acquisitions has allowed corrupt cronies in Maduro’s entourage to engage in unfathomable kleptocracy and stash their ill-gotten gains in the eurozone, vitiating the rule of law in the process. The EU consistently underappreciates the Maduro regime’s multi-faceted security threat, which intersects with and compounds many of the EU’s greatest geostrategic challenges in the post-COVID-19 landscape. China, Cuba, Iran, and Russia are all at once strategic rivals of the EU and enablers of the Maduro regime’s threat to its security. The Joe Biden administration’s commitment to multilateral engagement in Venezuela offers the EU a chance to reclaim transatlantic cooperation and present a common vision for political transition in the country. Beefing up sanctions and developing a coordination mechanism, as well as drumming up humanitarian aid, would constitute serious progress and potentially thrust the EU into the role of indispensable actor in Venezuela’s democratic restoration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Sanctions, European Union, Democracy, Multilateralism, and Hugo Chavez
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, Spain, and Venezuela

29. Russian Foreign Policy in 2020: Strengthening Multi-vectorialism

Author:
András Rácz and Milan Nič
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
In 2020, DGAP’s Strategy Group on Russia focused on Moscow’s long-term efforts to diversify its foreign policy portfolio, turn away from Europe, and build-up other non-Western vectors in its diplomacy. Against this background, this report assesses Russia’s relations with the EU, China, and the United States. While Russian relations with the West are unlikely to improve in 2021 – especially ahead of this fall’s Duma election – there is still a chance for limited engagement on issues of mutual interest.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Democracy, and International Order
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, and United States of America

30. Walking a Tightrope in Tunisia: The Aspirations and Limitations of Migration Policy Reform

Author:
Tasnim Abderrahim, Alia Fakhry, and Victoria Rietig
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Tunisia is transforming into a small but important migration hub in North Africa. It grapples with a range of migration challenges that include growing mixed movements, irregular sea crossings, and brain drain. Europe has been nudging Tunisia to overhaul its migration governance system for years, but practical and political challenges stand in the way of reform for the young democracy. This report provides German and European politicians, policy experts, and practitioners with concrete and actionable ideas for how to aim for more informed migration discussions with their Tunisian counterparts in the future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, Reform, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Germany, North Africa, and Tunisia

31. Timor‐Leste’s ASEAN Membership Prospects in a Time of Geopolitical Ambiguity

Author:
Hannah Foreman
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Timor-Leste is a small democratic country in an increasingly strategic region. Since gaining independence in 2002, Timor-Leste has made remarkable progress as Asia’s youngest democracy, but it has a long way to go in improving its economic and political situation. ASEAN membership for the Timorese is viewed as a way to reconcile economic, security, and geopolitical interests, while carving out a regional identity. Timor-Leste’s push for ASEAN membership started in 2011 and intensified during the latter half of 2019 when Foreign Minister Dionisio Babo Soares visited all ten ASEAN capitals in the summer followed by ASEAN fact finding missions in Dili in the fall. While Timor-Leste’s response to COVID-19 is impressive, the economic toll continues to be severe. Therefore, ASEAN membership is a comparatively lower priority this year, but is still under consideration by members, based on Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc’s speech during the recent ASEAN Summit.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Democracy, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Timor-Leste and Asia-Pacific

32. North Korea in Africa: Historical Solidarity, China’s Role, and Sanctions Evasion

Author:
Benjamin R. Young
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
North Korea serves as a mutually beneficial partner for many African governments. Although these ties are often viewed solely through the lens of economic and security interests, this report shows Pyongyang's deep historical connections and ideological linkages with several of the continent’s nations. North Korea–Africa relations are also bolstered by China, which has been complicit in North Korea’s arms and ivory trade, activities providing funds that likely support the Kim regime’s nuclear ambitions and allow it to withstand international sanctions.
Topic:
History, Governance, Sanctions, Democracy, and Solidarity
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and North Korea

33. Mobilization, Negotiation, and Transition in Burkina Faso

Author:
Eloïse Bertrand
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In October 2014, a massive popular uprising unseated Burkina Faso’s long-time president, Blaise Compaoré, and drove a civilian-led transition that culminated in free and fair elections in November 2015. This report shows the importance of the national culture of dialogue and consensus and the benefit of a vast, resilient network across negotiating groups. Although violence in the country has since increased, lessons from Burkina Faso’s transition can inform the dynamics of popular mobilization, negotiations, and prospects for long-term peace and democracy in other settings.
Topic:
Democracy, Negotiation, Transition, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:
Africa and Burkina Faso

34. The Carter-Baker Commission: 16 Years Later

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
We have long admired the wisdom and sage approaches that President Jimmy Carter and Secretary James A. Baker, III, have exhibited throughout their careers in public service. Understanding that the delicate balance of our democracy pivots on a fulcrum of support for public projects and policy, they have consistently emphasized strategies designed to achieve key objectives and gain support from both sides of the political aisle.
Topic:
Democracy, Leadership, Public Service, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

35. The Chinese Political System

Author:
Marcos Caramuru, Philip Yang, Daniel Bell, Kamila Aben Athar, Leondardo Burlamaqui, and Xiaoyu Pu
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
The XXVI China Analysis Group Meeting proposed dialogue on the fundamental characteristics of China's political system and the main issues surrounding its particularities and governance capacity. In this report, which summarizes the main discussion points of the event, the reader will find the participants' reflections regarding the difference between the ideal and the reality of China's meritocratic political structure, its challenges in terms of managing the world's largest population, and China's internal contradictions. In addition, the text brings reflections on the international pressure China faces regarding human rights, democratic values, and sources of legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party today and in a future governance perspective. The China Analysis Group is a CEBRI initiative, sponsored by Banco BOCOM BBM since 2017.
Topic:
Human Rights, Politics, Governance, Democracy, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

36. Myanmar’s Military Struggles to Control the Virtual Battlefield

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In order to silence opposition to the February coup, Myanmar’s military is vigorously policing the internet as it quashes street protests. Outside powers and technology companies should endeavour to keep the online space free of interference and deny the junta tools of virtual repression.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Protests, Coup, Military Government, and Oppression
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

37. Changing Dynamics of Pak-US Relations and the Challenge of Soft Power

Author:
Moonis Ahmar
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
There is a history of ups and downs in Pak-US relations since early 1950s till today. From the period of alliances to ostensible hostility and indifference, the changing dynamics of Pak-US relations must be analysed from a pragmatic point of view where power, national interests, security and sovereignty matter. Furthermore, mistrust, suspicions, ill-will and paranoia still influence the political, security, economic and power dynamics of relations between Pakistan and the United States. This research follows the theory of soft power due to two main reasons. First, instead of being a ‘patron-client’ relationship, PakUS relations could be transformed by focusing on diplomacy, trade and technology instead of threats and coercion. Second, President Obama’s policy of ‘do more’ for Pakistan in combating terrorism in Afghanistan proved to be counterproductive as anti-Americanism surged in Pakistan. Overcoming the bitterness of the past in Pak-US relations will be a major challenge to the Biden-Harris administration. Moving forward in Pak-US relations will require political will, determination, prudence and trust from both sides. It is up to the leadership from both countries to foster trust and take confidence building measures which can transform their relations from patron-client to partners in progress. Shift from geopolitics to geoeconomics will ensure a win-win situation for both sides in the years to come.
Topic:
Economics, Violent Extremism, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

38. Authoritarian protectionism in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe: diversity, commonality and resistance

Author:
Luke Cooper
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Authoritarianism has become a major buzzword of global politics today. But the public debate has often focused on headline-catching cases of democratic decline. In the European Union (EU), Hungary and Poland, have tended to dominate discussion and critique with the implication that a modern-day ‘containment’ strategy might suffice to withstand the authoritarian advance. This brings dangers for how we think about politics in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE), involving a problematic reading of the region as a source of threat to democracy, rather than a theatre for its renewal. This new LSE IDEAS report, Authoritarian protectionism in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe: diversity, commonality and resistance, seeks to provide a wider regional contextualisation through the examination of Hungary and Poland in tandem with four other case studies in the region: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Romania and Slovakia. The paper argues that the recent histories of these states provide a vantage point for reflection on the broader tendencies driving democratic decay globally. As the populaces of these states have shown tremendous civic energy in their willingness to resist authoritarianism, often in very large numbers, these case studies also point to the need to re-frame how this topic is discussed in the European public sphere. They suggest we should highlight how events in the region may be a harbinger of new opportunities for democratic advance. The snapshot comparative analysis of these states is undertaken through the frame of what the author, Dr Luke Cooper, calls authoritarian protectionism. This emphasises the importance of a politics of ethnonational partisanship to the contemporary challenge to democracy. In the cases examined in the report, authoritarian protectionism draws particular attention to the coherence that exists amongst such actors– despite the fact the examples are drawn from the left, centre and right of the political spectrum.
Topic:
Politics, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Diversity, and Protectionism
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and Southern Europe

39. Political Participation and Promotion of Democracy: Role of Civil Society Organizations in Jordan

Author:
Alakyaz Assadorian
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
Throughout the past decade, Jordan has been able to successfully manoeuvre serious predicaments with the ultimate aim of achieving comprehensive development, regardless of the local and neighbouring political, economic and humanitarian challenges. Entering into the kingdom’s second century, the vision of His Majesty King Abdullah II concentrates on political reform, peaceful democratic transition and inclusion of all social segments, particularly the youth, in decision-making and public life. In His Majesty’s own words, “to promote political participation and increase the participation of political parties and youth in Parliament, we must revisit laws regulating political life, such as the election, political parties, and local administration laws, and continue political development efforts”. The emphasis in the coming phase must be to build a culture of coalition and collective action, focus on consolidation and social cohesion, and further strengthen the role of civil society and local communities in contributing to the peaceful democratic transition and solidifying through widening political participation, improving good governance, enlarging decision making processes and enhancing both accountability and civic duties. However, this process is one that requires constructive engagement, purposeful training, and periodic, systematic exploration of the continuously changing attitudes and perceptions of the people in order to sustain the reform and democratic process in Jordan. The continuous support of actors such as the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID), the European Union (EU) and the Center for Strategic Studies (CSS) at the University of Jordan, to build a culture of coalition and collective action particularly among CSOs, political empowerment of women and youth is crucial to ensure a meaningful transition. There is no one model of democratization that fits all societies. However, over the past 6 years, the solid partnership between AECID and CSS (through the project of Qararuna and TAHDIR), proved to be a successful model for paving the way for openness and democratic discourse in the country and the region.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Civil Society Organizations, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

40. Democracy in a Post-Covid World

Author:
Madeleine Albright
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The SIPRI Lecture is an annual event focusing on major themes in peace and security. The event provides a platform for prominent global thought leaders sharing the values underpinning SIPRI, its research and other activities. The third SIPRI Lecture, which was held virtually on 24 May 2021, was delivered by HE Dr Madeleine Albright and focused on the theme of ‘Democracy in a Post-Covid World’. The lecture highlighted ways in which the Covid-19 pandemic and its aftershocks have transformed the world. It also stressed the importance of placing democratic values and international cooperation at the centre of any post-pandemic strategy to create a more secure, stable, healthy and prosperous world.
Topic:
Security, Development, Democracy, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41. Turning the Tide on Dirty Money

Author:
Trevor Sutton and Ben Judah
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
To promote domestic resilience and curb the malign influence of authoritarian powers, the United States and its democratic partners need to unite against corruption and kleptocracy.
Topic:
Corruption, Democracy, Kleptocracy, and Dark Money
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. Promoting Sovereignty and Accountability in Iraq: Guidelines for the Biden Administration

Author:
Bilal Wahab
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The complexity of Iraq’s challenges might prompt some U.S. officials to balk, but a constructive policy can help advance both Iraqi and American interests in areas ranging from counterterrorism to economic development. In the tenth in a series of TRANSITION 2021 memos, Bilal Wahab offers insights on the complex dynamics in today’s Iraq. When U.S. officials assess the Iraqi scene, they see intractable problems ranging from deep corruption to incessant power grabs by Iran-sponsored militias. The difficulty of dealing with these challenges might prompt some policymakers to balk at devising solutions, but a constructive Iraq policy can help advance both Iraqi and American interests in numerous areas. A more stable Iraq, for its part, could better defend itself against a resurgent Islamic State while curtailing Iranian influence. The author elaborates that Baghdad, reinforced in this way, could help “improve regional security, increase the flow of petroleum—a necessity even amid the urgent global shift toward renewable energy sources—and create economic opportunity for the country’s 40 million citizens as well as neigh­boring states.” TRANSITION 2021 memos by Washington Institute experts address the broad array of issues facing the Biden-Harris administration in the Middle East. These range from thematic issues, such as the region’s strategic position in the context of Great Power competition and how to most effectively elevate human rights and democracy in Middle East policy, to more discrete topics, from Arab-Israel peace diplomacy to Red Sea security to challenges and opportunities in northwest Africa. Taken as a whole, this series of memos will present a comprehensive approach for advancing U.S. interests in security and peace in this vital but volatile region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Sovereignty, Reform, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

43. A Strategy to Contain Hezbollah: Ideas and Recommendations

Author:
Hanin Ghaddar
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Since securing a parliamentary majority, the group has consistently prioritized its own interests over those of the Lebanese people through practices such as illicit drug production, sex trafficking, and the buildup of its military arsenal. When Lebanese took to the streets in October 2019 to rail against government corruption, a lack of accountability, and runaway consumer prices, they coalesced around the chant “All of them!”—meaning that every political actor in the country held some blame for the national meltdown. But the slogan glossed over the important fact that one group in particular, Hezbollah, deserved the most blame. Since notching a parliamentary majority in 2018, the Iran-backed military-political organization has consistently prioritized its own interests over those of the Lebanese people through practices such as illicit drug production, sex trafficking, and—of course—the buildup of its military arsenal. In this Policy Note, Hanin Ghaddar, an expert on Lebanon who worked for years as a journalist in the country, explains why Hezbollah poses such a menace and what the international community can do about it. Foremost, she recommends that the United States and its partners intensify pressure on Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsor while simultaneously engaging with a new generation of Lebanese who want to free themselves from the group’s stranglehold.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Democracy, Hezbollah, and Shia
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Lebanon

44. A New Start for the U.S. on Mideast Democracy and Human Rights

Author:
David Pollock and Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In a region where publics are clamoring for healthcare, housing, jobs, and freedom of expression, progress toward electoral democracy need not always be the top priority. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In this inaugural essay, David Pollock and Robert Satloff offer broad guidelines for a reimagined American democracy and human rights agenda in the region. At its core is a call for recognizing the many paths to improving human rights, accountable governance, and participatory democracy and their connection to a range of U.S. interests. Progress toward electoral democracy need not always be the top priority in an arena where regional publics are clamoring for basic rights such as healthcare, housing, jobs, and freedom of expression.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Politics, Reform, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

45. Preparing for Orderly Change in Jordan When the Time Comes

Author:
Ghaith al-Omari
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The kingdom has navigated tricky successions in the past, and many of the elements that allowed it to do so remain in place today. The Washington Institute has been sponsoring a series of discussions about sudden succession in the Middle East. Each session focuses on scenarios that might unfold if a specific ruler or leader departed the scene tomorrow. Questions include these: Would the sudden change lead to different policies? Would it affect the stability of the respective countries involved, or the region as a whole? What would be the impact on U.S. interests? Would the manner of a leader's departure make a difference? The discussions also probe how the U.S. government might adjust to the new situation or influence outcomes. This essay, the fourteenth and last in the series, looks at prospects for an eventual succession in Jordan. Even as the kingdom today is dealing with serious economic, regional, and political challenges, Hussein bin Abdullah—the twenty-seven-year-old crown prince—faces no challenges and has steadily assumed more public responsibilities. Jordan has navigated tricky successions in the past, and many of the elements that allowed it to do so remain in place today. The next handover could therefore be smooth as well, whatever the complexities of its context.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Democracy, and Instability
Political Geography:
Middle East, Jordan, and United States of America

46. Seasoned Skeptics Why Syrian Kurds Have Resisted Political Islam

Author:
Sirwan Kajjo and Oula A. Alrifai
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The historic role of Sufism, an inclination toward the secular left, and recent repression under extremists have all driven the Kurds away from religiously informed ideology. For much of their history, the Kurdish people have tended to separate their political projects from Islam. This rule applies especially in northern Syria today, where Kurds govern an autonomous region locally referred to as Rojava. Over the past several years, the Democratic Union Party (PYD) has established a governing system that promotes a tolerant form of Islam and coexistence among the many religious groups in the region. The project has not been without its difficulties, including PYD tensions with the competing Kurdish National Council, but it could ultimately serve as a model of tolerance in a region beset by extremism. In this illuminating Policy Note, Sirwan Kajjo and Oula Alrifai explain how Sufi orders, Marxist discourse, jihadist repression, and other factors inform the historic Kurdish resistance to political Islam. The authors contend that only strong U.S. support can uphold the Rojava project and others like it, whatever challenges this might present from the standpoint of domestic politics.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Kurds, and Political Islam
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

47. Power to the People? Scrutinizing the U.S.-Arab Effort to Supply Energy to Lebanon via Syria

Author:
Katherine Bauer, Ben Fishman, Hanin Ghaddar, Simon Henderson, David Schenker, and Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Residents of the beleaguered country desperately need electricity, but a U.S.-Arab scheme carries complications that could benefit Syria's Assad regime. The Lebanese people have endured painful reductions in electricity over the last two years, and now the lights are on for just hours a day. To address this dire situation—and counter a Hezbollah initiative to import Iranian energy products to Lebanon—the United States and its Arab partners are pursuing a complex two-part scheme, with the first involving excess Jordanian electricity and the second, although not yet public, relying on natural gas originating in Egypt and Israel. But both components would involve energy transiting Syria and potentially benefiting the Assad regime, which is under heavy U.S. and international sanctions for its wartime abuses. In this timely Policy Note—richly illustrated with maps—former U.S. State Department senior advisor and NSC director Andrew J. Tabler and his Washington Institute coauthors disentangle the current U.S.-Arab proposal, including how it might interact with the anti-Assad sanctions regime. They also offer alternative avenues that avoid Syria altogether, such as using offshore LNG platforms and delivering to Lebanon sustainable energy systems, from solar panels to geothermal technology.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Reform, Democracy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

48. Democracy by Design: An Affirmative Response to the Illiberal Use of Technology for 2021

Author:
Kara Frederick
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Aglobal contest between democracies and autocracies is raging on the digital front. Technology stands to alter the balance between free, open societies and closed, repressive regimes. Nation states in direct competition with the United States seek to project global influence by shaping an existing digital order to their will. Impulses toward illiberal use of technology at home threaten to curtail individual liberties, constrict opportunity, and erode a truly open society. Democracies do not yet have a model for how to confront this. In the United States, a roadmap for a solution must start with the fundamental question: How should U.S. technology companies, with the help of the U.S. government, respond to the illiberal use of technology by authoritarian actors abroad? This report contends with this question by identifying concrete actions and threat-mitigating strategies that contain the input of government, the tech sector, civil society, and academia. It provides starting points to address the systemic risk inherent in dealing with authoritarian regimes and also examines cost imposition on those complicit in tech-enabled human rights abuses. Yet a strategy aimed only at staunching the illiberal use of technology will fail in the long term. Instead, the U.S. government and tech companies alike must recruit democratic allies to purvey an affirmative agenda that promotes digital freedom across the globe. This report proposes an agenda that stresses privacy leadership by the United States and its technology companies. It identifies areas of collaboration for U.S. allies and democratic partners, like digital trade, foreign law enforcement requests for data, and technical standards. This report’s affirmative agenda also contains an imperative for U.S. tech companies to build commercial norms toward digital freedom and incentivize transparency within their own ranks. For digital freedom to prevail over authoritarian uses of technology, democracies must present something better. Together, they must establish an alternative model for the use of technology globally. These recommendations build that democratic case, starting with the United States.
Topic:
Human Rights, Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

49. Intelligence Transparency and Foreign Threats to Elections: Responsibilities, Risks, and Recommendations

Author:
Carrie Cordero
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
As the United States nears a consequential November election in a charged political environment and society reels this year from a global pandemic, historic unemployment, and a summer of civic unrest and violence, the threat of malign foreign interference in the campaign season and election system looms. In 2016, policymakers and intelligence community leaders were reluctant to release information publicly regarding the activities of the Russian government intended to affect the election. This year, a new playbook is needed to ensure that the intelligence community, policymakers, and the public are in sync regarding transparency expectations about foreign threats to the election. The discussion that follows provides context—how intelligence transparency was addressed in the 2016 election, adjustments that were made for the 2018 midterms—and articulates responsibilities of the intelligence community versus the risks involved in greater transparency. The paper concludes with recommendations for transparency about election threats in order to protect against and mitigate ongoing foreign efforts to damage our stressed democracy.
Topic:
Government, Intelligence, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Russia, North America, and United States of America

50. Combating Populism: A Toolkit for Liberal Democratic Actors

Author:
Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Carisa Nietsche
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
The rise of populism in Europe and the United States is well documented. Although studies may disagree about the relative importance of populism’s drivers, there is broad consensus that rising inequality, declining bonds to established traditional parties, increasing salience of identity politics, and economic grievance have played a role in fueling populism’s rise. Although populism is a symptom of democracy’s larger problems, the strategies and tactics populist parties and leaders use also provide their own, direct threat to liberal democracy. Many of the tactics that populist leaders use weaken democratic institutions and constraints on executive power. Populism is also detrimental to democracy because it exacerbates political polarization, which makes it hard for democracy to effectively function. As societies grow more polarized, people become willing to tolerate abuses of power and sacrifice democratic principles if doing so advances their side’s interests and keeps the other side out of power.1 The polarization that populism fuels, in other words, increases the risk of democratic decline. This report offers recommendations for combating populism. It translates key findings from cutting-edge academic research in the political science, political psychology, sociology, and communications disciplines into practical, evidence-based recommendations. The first set of recommendations is intended to equip political parties, politicians, and candidates to create a political context more conducive to the success of liberal democratic actors. Research shows that context matters—although many people may hold populist attitudes, these attitudes must be activated by the political context to translate into votes for populist leaders.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Populism, Liberalism, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

51. Strengthened Civil Society and Effective Cooperation in Democratic Urban Governance

Author:
Ulaş Bayraktar
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This report has been produced in the framework of the Empowering Civil Society for a More Democratic Local Governance Project funded by the scope of Republic of Turkey and European Union supported Partnerships and Networks Grant Program. TESEV is the lead, Şişli Municipality and Association of Union of Citizen Assemblies are the co-applicants, and the Checks and Balances Network is the associate of the project. The transition from the classical management approach to the governance approach, in which private sector and non-governmental organisations take on roles in determining public policies, has been the dominant discourse of politics for more than a quarter century. Instead of a hierarchical and monolithic bureaucratic process, this approach envisions a management triangle that engages other stakeholders. However, these governance principles have not been fully put into practice in Turkey and those that have been implemented have not yielded the expected results. The present study aims to test these statements at the level of local governments and politics. Its purpose is also to open up a discussion based on the findings of interviews and roundtables conducted in ten cities in Turkey and of a comprehensive survey administered to a nationally representative sample of civil society organisations.
Topic:
Civil Society, Non-Governmental Organization, Governance, Democracy, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

52. Global Governance in 2030: Prospective Scenarios on the Future of Politics

Author:
Julia Pomares and María Belén Abdala
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
We are living in an era of unprecedented changes. Mature democracies, emerging polities and the least electorally competitive countries are now facing new challenges in a globalized world. They are all dealing with technological breakthroughs, changes in global economic power, ageing populations and urbanization of their territories. Today’s picture shows that social inclusion seems to be an unfulfilled promise, and social cohesion is weakening. Some citizens are disenchanted, and political systems are having trouble adapting and responding to new demands. According to Edelman’s Trust Barometer (2017), one in every two countries does not have faith in the system, and we still do not know how this picture is going to evolve. In democracies, pro-democracy attitudes coexist with openness to nondemocratic forms of governance, such as rule by experts (49 per cent), strong leaders (26 per cent) or the military (24 per cent). This picture might be part of a transition period or indicating that polities are not being able to cope with some of the new challenges. It is why we need to think about the future of politics and how these trends will shape global governance in the next 10 to 20 years. Are political systems ready to govern a digital economy? How should political leaders evolve to address radical changes in an automated world? What will the consequences be for global governance and for the role of G20? This paper analyzes current global trends in domestic politics and the prospective scenarios on the future of politics. To do so, the paper presents a brief description on three forces we know will forge the future: technological breakthroughs, demographic changes and shifts in global economic power. Later, it turns to the uncertainty of the future. We live in nation states, so we first attempt to devise how these forces will shape domestic politics. We then look at global governance and the way these trends will impact upon it. The final stop of this journey is an analysis of the implications of these scenarios for the role of the G20.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Governance, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

53. Russia: an increasingly repressive autocracy seeking a place on the UN Human Rights Council

Author:
Lara María Kovandova
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
The Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) 2020 cautiously points to Vladimir Putin’s forging of an authoritarian-bureaucratic nomenklatura. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have denounced the deteriorating human rights situation in Russia, with freedom of speech and assembly systematically undermined and violated. The recent plebiscite to reform the constitution is the epitome of Mr Putin masquerading the authoritarian regime as a democracy.
Topic:
United Nations, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Vladimir Putin, Human Rights Violations, Amnesty International, and Human Rights Watch
Political Geography:
Russia, Latin America, and Global Focus

54. BTI and Cuba: the State of democratic denial

Author:
Manuel Cuesta Morúa
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
Compared with other reports on Cuba, the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) has several noticeable advantages. The first is that it is a comprehensive report, embedded in three pillars: economics, politics and governance. The second is that it captures trends, whereas more reports are static. The third is that it considers themes through indicators, which most reports ignore. And as it is issued every two years it makes it possible to know the consistency (or lack, thereof) of the transformation and its rhythm. The following up. Has Cuba been transformed in 14 years (2006-2020)? Reading the report, it can be concluded that it has, whilst a new concept is introduced: that of static transformation –a sample of changes that leave the structures of a society intact.
Topic:
Human Rights, Governance, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Society, and Human Rights Violations
Political Geography:
Cuba, Latin America, and Global Focus

55. From Peoples' Struggles to Public Policy: The Institutionalization of the Bhilwara Framework of Social Accountability in India

Author:
Rakshita Swamy and Aruna Roy
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
This Accountability Note describes and explains a set of principles for social accountability that emerged out of the struggles of some of the most marginalized people in India. Although firmly rooted in the experience of local resistance, the Bhilwara Framework of Social Accountability speaks directly to national and global struggles for accountability. The essential elements of the Bhilwara Framework were first framed by Dalit activists fighting discrimination and structural injustice, who reflected on and theorized about the causes of their marginalization. These elements were then accepted, developed further, and disseminated by activists and social movements. This Note discusses the social origins of the Bhilwara Framework and explains how each of the six principles was derived and applied. The principles include: 1. Access to meaningful and usable information; 2. The formal registration of citizen grievances; 3. The need for time-bound inquiry processes; 4. Platforms for citizen participation; 5. Protection of complainants against reprisal; and 6. Public and collective spaces in which citizens can dialogue with their state. This Note also describes how the Framework was refined and expanded, and how it was consequently institutionalized within the state. Unlike most activists’ agendas, the Bhilwara Framework has made the transition from concept to policy. India’s Supreme Audit Institution and Comptroller and Auditor General used the Bhilwara Framework to develop a set of minimum standards for social audits. The Framework has also been used to frame state and national policies on accountability for social justice and security for Dalits, rights holders accessing their entitlements under the right to work, food security, education, etc., urban poor workers, and other marginalized groups. It also informs an ongoing attempt to draft a legal framework for accountability by the Rajasthan State Government, a fitting tribute to where the struggle for these principles began. The Framework has helped define and develop the practice of ‘independent facilitation,’ which refers to the efforts made by the State to provide institutionalized platforms, institutions, and processes for enabling citizens to hold the State to account, that are independent of the latter’s control and interests. Similar breakthroughs have been made in contemporary grievance redress reforms. Recognizing that complainants will face difficulty and perhaps intimidation while registering a grievance at the very office that is the cause of the grievance, the Bihar Public Grievance Redress Law mandates Information and Facilitation Centers to provide single window support centers for information, to register grievances and track their status, an independent officer to hear appeals, and a wide scope in the definition of a complaint. The Framework served as the point of reference for State and civil society jointly building the country’s first web portal for mandatory disclosure of information (the Jan Soochna Portal). It has played an instrumental role in forming the basis of wider conceptions of social audits in tribal autonomous regions, labor welfare schemes and corrective or rehabilitation institutions run by the State. These interconnected efforts have emerged from concerted grassroots struggles and refined by social movements and ordinary citizens and users of India’s various rights-based legislation. These essential struggles deepen social accountability strategies, rooting them firmly in social justice and participatory democracy.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, Social Justice, Accountability, Institutions, Marginalization, and Community Engagement
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

56. PeaceGame Venezuela: Pathways to Peace

Author:
Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In October 2019, PeaceGame Venezuela convened global leaders in Washington, D.C. to advance thinking around how Venezuelans and the international community should prepare for the potential of complete state collapse in Venezuela. This undesirable scenario must be considered as the domestic situation and the regional and global implications further deteriorate. This high-level crisis simulation was a collaboration between Foreign Policy, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, and Florida International University.
Topic:
Human Rights, Peacekeeping, Democracy, Crisis Management, Peace, and Transition
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

57. An Avoidable War: Politics and Armed Conflict in Myanmar’s Rakhine State

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Fighting in Myanmar’s Rakhine State is taking a rising toll. It will hinder any effort to contain COVID-19 or resolve the Rohingya crisis. Rather than trying to defeat the Arakan Army, Naypyitaw should negotiate with ethnic Rakhine, endeavouring to convince them of electoral democracy’s benefits. What’s new? The eighteen-month armed conflict between state forces and the Arakan Army in Rakhine State is Myanmar’s most intense in years. It shows no sign of de-escalation and the COVID-19 threat has not focused the parties’ minds on peace. The government’s designation of the group as terrorist will make matters worse. Why does it matter? The conflict is taking a heavy toll on civilians, with a peaceful settlement appearing more remote than ever. Without a settlement, the future of Rakhine State looks bleak, and addressing the state’s other major crisis, the situation of the Rohingya, will be even more difficult. What should be done? The conflict cannot be resolved on the battlefield. Rather than trying to prevail militarily and relying on inadequate humanitarian measures to cushion the blow, the government needs a political strategy to address Rakhine grievances and give the community renewed hope that electoral democracy can help them achieve their aspirations.
Topic:
Minorities, Democracy, Civilians, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

58. Iraq’s adolescent democracy: Where to go from here

Author:
Hamzeh al-Shadeedi and Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Iraq’s emergent democracy stands at an important junction. The continuing intensity of the protests that have rocked Iraq since early October 2019 shows that its citizens are only too aware of this. Moreover, the necessity of going through three government formation attempts to install a new prime minister and cabinet after the resignation of Adil Abdul-Mahdi in December 2019 suggests that Iraq’s political elites are conscious of the precarious state of ‘their’ democracy as well. Although, so far, with the intent to block rather than enable reform. This report largely focuses on how international actors can help strengthen the democratic mechanisms of Iraq’s political system. One contribution that they can – and should - make is to facilitate processes of contestation between Iraq’s social forces (its political parties, elite networks, tribes, ethno-sectarian groups, religious authorities and protestors) about the hierarchy of systemic reform priorities for the country’s political system, and the balance between the speed, scope and feasibility of their implementation so that such reform can be undertaken as peacefully and as well-informed as possible.
Topic:
International Relations, Democracy, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

59. Political Polarization in South and Southeast Asia: Old Divisions, New Dangers

Author:
Thomas Carothers and Andrew O'Donohue
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Political polarization is growing in South and Southeast Asia—one part of a troubling global trend. From long-established democracies like India to newer ones like Indonesia, deep-seated sociopolitical divisions have become increasingly inflamed in recent years, fueling democratic erosion and societal discord. New political and economic strains caused by the coronavirus pandemic are only reinforcing this worrisome trend. This report focuses on six key countries: India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. Behind the tremendous diversity of these cases lie illuminating commonalities, alongside revealing differences, in the roots, trajectories, drivers, and consequences of polarization, as well as in the attempted remedies different actors have pursued.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Culture, Reform, Democracy, Polarization, and Society
Political Geography:
South Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

60. Tunisia’s Fragile Democracy: Decentralization, Institution-Building and the Development of Marginalized Regions – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:
Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Although Tunisia has made great strides over the past seven years, its democratization process remains fragile. Disillusionment with and distrust in the government, particularly high among the young, also manifest themselves in low voter turnout. Young voters were strikingly absent in the 2014 parliamentary elections, and in the first municipal elections in May 2018, only 33.7 percent of Tunisians cast their votes. To a great extent, this disillusionment stems from the various, persistent socio-economic problems which had led to the uprisings and the ouster of the former autocratic regime in 2011. Especially in Tunisia’s historically marginalized regions, these issues remain a key challenge.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Democracy, Fragile States, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, and Tunisia

61. Backsliding of democracy in Slovenia under right-wing populist Janez Janša

Author:
Žiga Faktor
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Žiga Faktor examines the backsliding of democracy in Slovenia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid the escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, Slovenia experienced a major political shift, as Janez Janša, leader of conservative SDS party, was appointed as a new Prime minister of Slovenia, filling the political vacuum created after a resignation of a former PM Marjan Šarec earlier this year. With Janša’s strong ties to Hungarian PM Viktor Orban, his endorsement of right-wing populist rhetoric and ferocious verbal attacks on journalists and established media, many fear that Slovenia’s democratic principles are at stake, while the situation can be further exacerbated by the current state of coronavirus emergency in which the new government can entrench its power.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Populism, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Slovenia

62. Democracy, ‘Alternative Reality’ and Estonia’s Resilience

Author:
Dmitri Teperik
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The brief explores reasons why the concerns, grievances and perceptions of all vulnerable societal groups should receive adequate attention if further harm inflicted by fact-free and/or fact-twisting ‘alternative realities’ is to be averted. As some intergroup differences fall notably along the lines related to age, levels of educational attainment, overall welfare and life satisfaction, perceptions of inclusion, and geography, the pervasiveness of misconceptions and social myths as well as their impact on the attitudes, perceptions, and behaviour of citizens can be considered as reliable indicators of societal resilience in Estonia.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Democracy, Resilience, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
Estonia and Baltic States

63. Stronger Together: A Strategy to Revitalize Transatlantic Power

Author:
Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, Daniela Schwarzer, Christian Mölling, and Sophia Becker
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) convened a strategy group of experts and former government officials from the United States and Europe over the past year to discuss the crisis in the transatlantic relationship and to propose a strategy to revive and strengthen it.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Government, Science and Technology, Partnerships, Democracy, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, North America, and United States of America

64. United States‐Japan Cooperation on Democracy and Equity Should Tackle Gender and Racial Justice

Author:
Kristin Wilson and Jackie F. Steele
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The U.S.-Japan alliance is viewed as a cornerstone of stability, the rule of law, and promotion of democracy in the Indo-Pacific. The new U.S. administration presents an important opportunity to strengthen and refocus relationships and initiatives in the region as they aim to tackle the challenges of an assertive China. In the context of globalization and transnational social justice movements, there is no longer such a clear delineation between the politics of domestic issues, such as political underrepresentation and minority rights, and those affecting foreign policy. Under the new administration, the United States and Japan have ample opportunity to reinvigorate democratic advancement, especially on gender and racial justice. To this end, civil society and social movement groups play a key role in demonstrating why only democracy can ensure the sustainability of representative institutions, cohesive societies, and inclusive economies driven by innovation and opportunity. Historically, these groups have been essential to promoting democratization within the alliance and in the Indo-Pacific region. On issues of gender justice, transnational feminist and human rights networks brought global attention to the comfort women issue starting in the 1980s. Linkages between groups in the United States, Korea, and Japan have strengthed calls for justice for the comfort women and highlighted the delegitimacy of previous backroom deals on the issue—such as the 1965 treaty with then South Korean dictator, Park Chung-hee, and the private negotiations between PM Abe and President Park in 2015. These movements for social justice underscored the growing role played by transnational civil society in international affairs and they raised the bar on the level of transparency and meaningful inclusion necessary to resolve such deep-rooted conflicts.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Race, Bilateral Relations, Democracy, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

65. Assessing Afghanistan’s 2019 Presidential Election

Author:
Colin Cookman
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan’s current electoral system structures Afghan political dynamics, shapes election-day outcomes, and influences competition between organized interest groups in Afghanistan. Drawing on a unique set of results data from the September 2019 presidential election and past elections, this report analyzes where and how prospective Afghan voters were able to participate in the 2019 polls, the decision making behind and adjudication of disputes over which votes would be counted as valid, and how the available results compare with political trends evident in prior elections.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

66. Legislature and Legislative Elections in Afghanistan: An Analysis

Author:
A. Farid Tookhy
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan’s newest Wolesi Jirga—the lower house of the National Assembly—boasts a younger and more educated membership than those elected in either 2005 or 2010. Its representativeness, however, is uneven and problematic. This report offers a comparative profile of the Wolesi Jirgas elected in 2005, 2010, and 2018, highlighting issues salient to the reforms Afghanistan needs to undertake if it is to hold credible national elections that yield truly representative elected institutions.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, Democracy, and Legislation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

67. Fragile States Index 2020

Author:
Fund for Peace
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index — and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built — makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Democracy, Fragile States, Brexit, COVID-19, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, South Asia, Sudan, Central Asia, Middle East, India, Uzbekistan, Libya, Colombia, South America, Lebanon, Mozambique, Chile, Côte d'Ivoire, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso

68. Towards a More Principled European China Policy?

Author:
Stephan Frühling
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Promoting political values (democracy, human rights and the rule of law) in China is a colossal undertaking, but the EU could be more effective than we think. To do so, it must act strategically, in unity, and in concert with like-minded partners. It must also strengthen its record of upholding political values and reform its procedures for foreign policy decision-making. On 30 June 2020, China adopted a National Security Law for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region that not only undermines human rights and the rule of law that were promised to its citizens, but also violates international law. A few weeks before, when China’s intention became public, the European Union reacted cautiously, expressing concern but clarifying that the introduction of the law would not adversely affect its relations with China. The EU’s first reaction fell far short of statements released by the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, among others. But the EU’s reaction grew more critical over time. The first EU institution to adopt a tougher approach was the European Parliament. Shortly after, the European Commission and – to a lesser extent – the European Council followed with statements by its presidents after the EU-China summit held on 22 June 2020. This episode could turn out to be exemplary for the role of political values in the European Union’s relations with China. China and Europe have fundamentally divergent political values, even though they often use the same terminology. For a long time, many Europeans believed that China’s definition of democracy, human rights and the rule of law –, the three constitutive values enshrined in the Treaty of the European Union – would ultimately converge with the European understanding. This has not turned out to be the case. China is growing more self-confident, not only defending but starting to spread its own definitions of the triad of political values. This comes at a time when the EU is realigning its China policy more generally. The new European Commission strives to be a “geopolitical” entity strategically engaging to achieve concrete results in its bilateral relations with China. The starting point of this shift is the 2019 “Strategic Outlook” developed by the European External Action Service, which defines China not only as a “partner”, but also a “competitor” and a “systemic rival”. On political values, China clearly is a “systemic rival”. The crucial question is whether “systemic rivalry” in the field of political values carries implications for other policy fields in which the EU and China are partners or competitors. A general consensus that the EU should adopt a more principled China policy and defend and promote its political values spells out very differently across EU institutions. By institutional design, the European Council is a pragmatic rather than principled institution. Compromise resulting from bargaining among member states with different interests shapes its approach. At the other end of the spectrum, the European Parliament serves a principled watchdog function, but has very limited competencies in foreign and security affairs. The European Commission strives to overcome the decades-old challenge of policy silos resulting from its fragmented institutional structure and the more than 60 sectoral dialogues with China. This carries the potential to turn more principled. However, to this day it is not clear whether the European Commission will make the promotion of political values a policy priority even if this comes at the cost of economic cooperation. This paper outlines ongoing debates on the EU’s new China policy and the role of political values in it, and provides 25 concrete policy recommendations for a more principled China policy that defends and promotes democracy, human rights and the rule of law.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Democracy, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

69. Exploring Women’s Participation in Political Life in Tunisia With a Focus on the 2019 Elections

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
This report details the research methodology and approach in assessing the status of women and barriers to their participation in various aspects of the electoral process and as stakeholders. It presents key findings and offers recommendations to all stakeholders to increase women’s full political participation in future elections.
Topic:
Civil Society, Gender Issues, Governance, Women, Democracy, Transition, Equality, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

70. Breaking, Not Bending: Afghan Elections Require Institutional Reform

Author:
Scott Smith and Staffan Darnolf
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan’s presidential election is scheduled to take place on September 28. In planning the election, the Independent Election Commission (IEC) must overcome a number of practical challenges to avoid repeating the mistakes of the 2018 parliamentary elections—elections that undermined the legitimacy of the state and reduced Afghans’ confidence in democracy as a means for selecting their leaders. Based on a careful analysis of the IEC’s performance during the 2018 elections, this report offers recommendations for creating more resilient electoral institutions in Afghanistan and other postconflict countries.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Elections, Democracy, Conflict, Institutions, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and Central Asia

71. Loya Jirgas and Political Crisis Management in Afghanistan: Drawing on the Bank of Tradition

Author:
Scott Smith
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Many times over the past century, Afghan political elites have utilized a loya jirga, or grand national assembly, when they have needed to demonstrate national consensus. Based on traditional village jirgas convened to resolve local disputes, loya jirgas have been used to debate and ratify constitutions, endorse the country's position and alliances in times of war, and discuss how and when to engage the Taliban in peace talks. In light of the growing political uncertainty in Afghanistan, this report examines the strengths and weaknesses of the loya jirga as an institution for resolving national crises.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Taliban, Democracy, Crisis Management, Peace, and Jirga
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and Central Asia

72. Ukrainian Activism for Transparency and Accountability: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Author:
Olena Tregub
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In the wake of the Euromaidan protests that toppled the government of Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, Ukrainian activists and civil society organizations have pressed hard for anti-corruption reforms and greater openness and transparency in the public sector. Five years later, however, corruption remains a fixture of civic life—and a majority of Ukrainians believe the fight against corruption has been a failure. This new report reviews the changes that have taken place in the anti-corruption movement since the Euromaidan and identifies practical actions the international community can take to support reform efforts in Ukraine.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Governance, Reform, Democracy, Rule of Law, Protests, Accountability, Transparency, and Justice
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

73. Decentralisation; Trends, Achievements and the Way-forward for Local Governments in Uganda: Conference Report

Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This report presents the proceedings of the National Conference on Decentralisation held at Hotel Africana in Kampala, Uganda, on August 13, 2019. The theme of the conference was: Decentralisation: Trends, Gains, Challenges and the Future of Local Governments in Uganda. It was collaboratively held by the Ministry of Local Government (MoLG), Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE), and the Governance, Accountability, Participation and Performance (GAPP) Program with support from USAID and UKAID. The Conference assessed the impact of decentralisation policies and trends on financing for local governments, and highlighted measures [that can be] put in place by relevant stakeholders to support and strengthen decentralisation as per Article 176 of Uganda’s 1995 Constitution. Uganda’s decentralisation experiment was hailed as exceptional in the developing world. Its scale, scope of transfer of powers (devolution), responsibilities given to subnational units, and powers granted to citizens, were unprecedented. However, challenges of limited capacity of local government authorities, financing gaps, inter-governmental relations, and new problems of maintaining sub-national cohesion, continue to hamper the effectiveness of this governance reform. Accordingly, the August 2019 Conference was informed by the findings of two recent studies that took stock of trends and progress and also examined financing challenges to local governments under Uganda’s devolution form of decentralisation. It attracted different stakeholders including: national legislators/ members of parliament and policy makers, local government political and technical leaders, researchers and academia, civil society, media and development partners. It was also broadcast live on television and channeled through social media, which created space for the public to interact and appreciate the proceedings.
Topic:
Government, Governance, Democracy, and Local
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

74. Review of Gender Budgeting at Sub-national Level in Uganda: Insights from Mbarara, Mukono and Soroti Districts

Author:
Elijah Dickens Mushemeza, Daniel Lukwago, and George Bogere
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
These are the fi ndings of the study that analysed gender responsiveness in budgeting at sub-national level in Uganda. It studied how gender was mainstreamed in the budgets for health and agriculture in three districts, namely, Mukono, Soroti, and Mbarara. The study found that mainstreaming gender into budgets at sub-national level was minimal. Focus was largely on budget formulation with little emphasis on stages of budget execution, evaluation and audition. At the same time, mainstreaming gender at budget formulation stage was beset by signifi cant limitations. Thus, gender responsiveness of budgets at sub-national level remains low. This paused serious challenges in efforts to alleviate the plight of women who were faced with various forms of marginalisation, calling for gender mainstreaming in budgeting
Topic:
Agriculture, Gender Issues, Budget, Democracy, Economic structure, Economic Policy, and Local
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

75. Climate Change, Carbon Politics, and Kenya’s Democratic Future

Author:
Jacqueline M. Klopp and Abdullahi Boru Halakhe
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Carbon politics is playing out in oil-producing African countries with lethal consequences. Countries like Nigeria, Angola, Sudan, and South Sudan are conflict-ridden and economically unequal, and, as climate change concerns clash with new fossil fuel-driven development efforts, carbon politics is taking on ever-greater significance. While the scramble for fossil fuels could increase authoritarianism as it spreads in East Africa, an ecologically-driven imperative to address climate change could reinforce stronger democratic institutions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Oil, Natural Resources, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Angola, East Africa, and South Sudan

76. Hong Kong’s Escalating Protests: Three Questions

Author:
John J. Chin
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Hong Kong, once renowned as an apolitical and orderly British entrepôt, is now seething with political discontent, student unrest, and pro-democracy protests. Nothing less than the future of “one country, two systems”—the framework through which China agreed to maintain Hong Kong’s autonomy for fifty years in exchange for British agreement to restore Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty in July 1997 after more than a century of British administration—is at stake.
Topic:
Government, History, Social Movement, Law, Democracy, and Protests
Political Geography:
Asia and Hong Kong

77. Democracy and human rights agency for change: Alternative Democratic Practices in Southeast Europe

Author:
Vedran Dzihic, Gazela Pudar Drasko, Felix Henkel, Irena Fiket, Ivan Stefanovski, and Rastislav Dinic
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Almost twenty-five years after the end of the Cold War, initial euphoria about democratic change in many countries in the East and Southeast of Europe has given way to growing mistrust of political institutions and politicians, and an increasing disaffection with democracy itself. This wide-ranging disaffection has many sources. One of them lies in the increasingly weak performance of governments and the fact that »democracy«, whatever the term meant at the beginning of the transition processes, has failed to deliver on its promises. Politicians and governments no longer seem able or willing to deliver tangible results to their voters. Politics in Southeast Europe produces no or too few goods »for« the people and instead of »delivering«, engages in populist nationalism, politics of fear, and serves particular power interests The contributions to this publication discuss several approaches to active engagement and thinking about alternatives. The first paper examines the question if and how the emancipatory energy found in social movements may help in renewing social democracy (Felix Henkel). The next paper combines theoretical thinking about democratic innovations as opportunities for channelling popular discontent with concrete inquiry into the situation in Southeast Europe (Irena Fiket). The third paper provides an analysis of the Sisyphean task of democratizing societies, using the example of North Macedonia (Ivan Stefanovski). Last but not least, the fourth paper focusses on local struggles and actions in the Serbian city of Niš (Rastislav Dinić). The mobilization in Niš, where activists are in everyday contact with citizens at the local level, creates a deeper foundation for political engagement inscribed into the living context of individuals. This »grounding« together with broader societal utopian horizons of progressive thought provides a framework for the democratic renewal of Southeast European societies, a renewal that should be high on the agenda of the EU and all international actors dealing with the region.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Democracy, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Southeast Europe

78. Peace and Electoral Democracy in Myanmar

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar’s 2020 polls are a chance to consolidate electoral democracy in the country. Yet many ethnic minorities doubt that voting gives them a real say. To preempt possible violence, the government and outside partners should work to enhance the ballot’s inclusiveness and transparency. What’s new? Myanmar will go to the polls in late 2020. Political positioning has begun in earnest, affecting important governmental decision-making. In ethnic-minority areas, particularly Rakhine State, there is growing disillusionment with electoral democracy that could fuel escalating violence. Why does it matter? The pre-election period of political contestation will likely exacerbate ethnic tensions and conflict risks, particularly in the country’s periphery. At the same time, balloting will be a crucial opportunity to consolidate gains in electoral democracy – an important if insufficient step toward long-term peace and stability in Myanmar. What should be done?  To bolster ethnic minorities’ faith in elections, the government should signal its intention to appoint state chief ministers from the winning party in each state, rather than imposing National League for Democracy-led governments everywhere. More transparent decision-making about the likely cancellation of voting in conflict-affected areas would also help.
Topic:
Minorities, Elections, Democracy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

79. Social Capital in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Huseyin Emre Ceyhun
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Levels of social capital, which is often operationalized by measures of trust, have changed significantly in the Middle East and North Africa over the past 15 years. The 2011 uprisings marked a critical juncture for atrophying, status-quo statesociety relations: citizens questioned the nature of governance while governments grappled with reinvigorated demands of citizenship. These demands were not fully met, however, and peaceful transitions towards democracy did not ensue. Instead, many countries experienced significant conflict, including proxy-wars resulting from interests of regional powers and sectarian differences. As of 2019, Tunisia remained as the only country that is on a democratic but fragile path toward a democratic consolidation. In this context and over a 13 year period (2006-2019), the Arab Barometer can present an overarching picture of how political and interpersonal trust in the Middle East have changed in the years surrounding the 2011 Arab uprisings. With few exceptions, political and interpersonal trust in the Middle East has been decreasing, demonstrating the extent of anti-establishment feelings nurtured in societies. However, trust in legal systems has not decreased as much as trust in political institutions such as government and parliament. These findings suggest that despite widespread lack of confidence in governments and parliaments, ordinary citizens have not entirely given up on existing systems of governance. These patterns are clearly evident in Tunisia, the only country generally considered to have fully undertaken a democratic transition after the Arab uprisings. All measures of trust show a similar declining trend for political and interpersonal trust in Tunisia since 2011. As of 2018, only 20 percent of Tunisians trust the government, compared with 14 percent who trust parliament, and only 8 percent who have high levels of interpersonal trust. However, trust in the legal system (48 percent) is virtually unchanged between 2011 and 2018, suggesting that Tunisians might still be still committed to the system brought about by the Arab Spring.
Topic:
Governance, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Citizenship, Arab Spring, Proxy War, and Social Capital
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

80. The 2019 Algerian Protests

Author:
Michael Robbins
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
As a country that experienced few protests during the Arab uprisings of 2011, this year’s demonstrations in Algeria caught most observers by surprise. The massive outpouring of public opinion, which has continued for months, has toppled a long-standing leader and continues to challenge the ruling system. The 2019 Arab Barometer public opinion survey was conducted on the eve of the protests, lending unique insight into several key questions: Were these protests to be expected? What drives the protests? And, what do Algerians want for the future? The survey results demonstrate that declining conditions meant a breakdown of the social contract among all segments of society, which resulted in a high level of protest activity in recent years. However, these protests occurred largely outside the capital, leading many analysts to likely overlook them. Nevertheless, the survey suggests that while Algerians know what they do not want, they are divided on what they seek to achieve for the future, remaining skeptical of democracy and divided on the role of religion in public life. In other words, there is not a clear way forward or clear destination – instead, Algerians appear open to any system of governance that can bring improved governance and better economic outcomes.
Topic:
Religion, Social Movement, Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Protests, and Social Contract
Political Geography:
Middle East, Algeria, and North Africa

81. North Macedonia: What’s Next?

Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
In January 2019, Macedonia’s parliament approved, by a two-thirds majority, a constitutional amendment to change the country’s name to the Republic of North Macedonia. While this represented a major step toward North Macedonia’s ultimate goal of establishing a durable, stable democracy, the name change must still be endorsed by Greece’s parliament before it can go into full effect. But as a new report from the Open Society European Policy Institute shows, a newly-named North Macedonia would still face significant challenges—and opportunities. North Macedonia: What’s Next? examines the 2018 Prespa Agreement between neighboring Greece and North Macedonia, which laid out agreed upon conditions for resolving the longstanding dispute over Macedonia’s name, and what it means for the larger project of integrating the countries in the Western Balkans more fully into the political and economic systems of Europe, the British Isles, and the United States. The report further explores how key players—such as the European Union, NATO, Russia, other Western Balkans states—approach the Prespa Agreement, explains the significance of the name change in larger geopolitical terms, and offers insight into possible scenarios for the final resolution of this fraught and lengthy conflict.
Topic:
NATO, Democratization, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Democracy, Constitution, and Nation-State
Political Geography:
Balkans, Macedonia, and North Macedonia

82. States of Change: Attitudes in Central and Eastern Europe 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall

Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
Despite deep concerns about the future of democracy, people in Central and Eastern Europe retain a strong attachment to civil society and faith in the freedoms achieved with the collapse of Communism, according to States of Change: Attitudes in Central and Eastern Europe 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall, a report from the Open Society Foundations. Based on polling by YouGov conducted in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, States of Change provides a snapshot of current opinion on democracy, freedom of speech, the market economy, and the media in the former Eastern Bloc and Germany.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Markets, Democracy, Media, Berlin Wall, and Free Speech
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Central Europe

83. A Guide to Election Observer Policies in the United States

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Election observation is the process by which parties, candidates, citizen groups or independent organizations deploy observers to witness the electoral process. Different types of observers have very different goals for watching an election. While observers from political parties seek to ensure that election administration does not disadvantage their campaigns, nonpartisan observers focus on checking compliance with election administration regulations. Credible nonpartisan observers are interested in promoting integrity, transparency, and efficiency in the electoral process and have no stake in the political outcome.During contentious or highly competitive elections, impartial observation can provide an important avenue for reliable feedback about which aspects of an election went well and what parts could improve
Topic:
International Affairs and Democracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

84. The End of Techno-Utopianism

Author:
Karen Kornbluh
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
his piece is part of a full report, "Reassessing 1989," which looks at the major events of that year, including the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Tiananmen Square protests, and the breakup of Yugoslavia.
Topic:
International Affairs, Cybersecurity, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Germany

85. Global Development: Democracy, Market and Transparency 2012: Editor's note

Author:
Gabriel C. Salvia and Hernán Alberro
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
In order to appear in the ranking, the counties must qualify in the three indices from which the scores are drawn from. For the first time, North Korea is being included in this ranking. The totalitarian dictatorship is the most closed in the world and comfortably occupies the last position.
Topic:
Development, Markets, Democracy, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

86. Fragile States Index 2019

Author:
Fund for Peace
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index — and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built — makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Fragile States, Political stability, Arab Spring, Peace, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa, Caucasus, Middle East, Brazil, Yemen, South America, Central America, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Somalia, Mauritius, and Global Focus

87. Leaders for a New Africa: Democrats, Autocrats, and Development

Author:
Giovanni Carbone
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Political leadership can be a crucial ingredient for the development of sub-Saharan Africa. The region has been going through important transformations, with both political landscapes and economic trajectories becoming increasingly diverse. The changes underway include the role of leadership and its broader impact. This volume argues that, on the whole, African leaders and the way they reach power generally do contribute to shaping their countries’ progresses and achievements. It also zooms in on some influential African leaders who recently emerged in key states across the continent, illustrating and explaining the individual paths that brought them to power while reflecting on the prospects for their governments’ actions. Far from the simplistic stereotypes of immovable, ineffective and greedy rulers, the resulting picture reveals dynamic and rapidly evolving political scenarios with key implications for development in the region.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Democracy, Leadership, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

88. Nigeria’s 2019 Elections: Change, Continuity, and the Risks to Peace

Author:
Aly Verjee, Chris Kwaja, and Oge Onubogu
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Nigeria’s keenly anticipated national elections are scheduled to take place in February and March 2019. These elections will mark the sixth vote since the reintroduction of democracy in 1999—and will follow the country’s first peaceful transition of power to an opposition party in 2015, when Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP conceded to Muhammadu Buhari of the rival APC. Based on field research in eight states and Abuja, this Special Report identifies the emerging and shifting risks of election violence for Nigeria’s 2019 elections and provides recommendations for Nigerian authorities and international donors supporting the electoral process to help mitigate these risks.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

89. Nigeria’s Movement for Transparency and Accountability: Bringing the Pieces Together

Author:
Samson Itodo
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Since the demise of its military dictatorship in the late 1990s, Nigeria has made remarkable democratic progress. Still, widespread corruption bedevils the country—which in many respects presents its biggest policy challenge and its biggest threat to stability and development. Drawing on a workshop held in Abuja as well as on in-depth interviews with civil society leaders and others, this report analyzes the undercelebrated but unique contributions of an emerging movement for transparency and accountability, the scope of international funding and training, and how this support affects the effectiveness of civil society efforts.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, Governance, Social Movement, Democracy, Accountability, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

90. The Revolutionary Seeds of Mass Media

Author:
Sania El-Husseini
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
The development and spread of mass media throughout the Middle East over the past two decades—starting with satellite television stations, which took national narratives out from under state control, and followed by social media, which gave voice to the masses—is widely considered a key factor leading to the eruption of the Arab revolutions.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Mass Media, Democracy, Internet, Arab Spring, Journalism, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, North America, Qatar, and United States of America

91. Milada Horáková: Defender of Democracy Against Totalitarianism in Czechoslovakia

Author:
Greg Ross
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
On the 23rd of August, the City of Buenos Aires observes the Day of Remembrance for the Victims of Totalitarianism. The life of Czech activist Milada Horáková is emblematic of the fight against various forms of totalitarianism. Horáková, detained by the Nazis in a concentration camp and later executed by communists in Czechoslovakia, was posthumously awarded the honor of the First Order of Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk by Czech president Václav Havel in 1991. It is the Czech government’s highest recognition of citizens who have dedicated their lives to democratic and humanitarian causes. Horáková’s story was recently highlighted in «Milada», a 2017 Czech-American film distributed by Netflix.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, State Violence, Violence, Dictatorship, and Totalitarianism
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

92. Human Rights and Economic Policy Under the Argentine Military Dictatorship, 1976-1983

Author:
Greg Ross
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
The conflict between a liberal economic agenda and a politics of repression appeared throughout the Argentine military dictatorship. Tensions between the junta’s pro-market and political agendas surfaced in various economic policies, such as international trade. During the dictatorship, Argentina increased trade with countries in the Soviet sphere: of the ninety-nine bilateral economic agreements signed between 1976 and 1983, thirty were with Soviet countries, China, or Cuba. Cases such as that of the military dictatorship suggest how domestic politics—especially the politics of human rights—can become intertwined with, opposed, and shaped by economic interests.
Topic:
Economics, Democracy, Global Political Economy, Economic Policy, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:
China, Argentina, and Soviet Union

93. Cuba before its third universal periodic review of human rights

Author:
Gabriel C. Salvia
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
In the previous review, carried out in 2013, the Cuban government categorically rejected the most relevant recommendations on their human rights violations, which persist today. This can be seen in the most recent Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch reports. From the Southern Cone of South America, it is important for countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru and Uruguay to participate in Cuba’s next Universal Periodic Review (UPR), to stand out for the defense of human rights, which would contribute to their commitment of strengthening democracy in the Latin American region.
Topic:
Human Rights and Democracy
Political Geography:
South America, Cuba, and Latin America

94. Kenyan Democracy and the Rule of Law

Author:
John Mukum Mbaku
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Certain characteristics and values have the power to make or break a democracy. The supremacy of law, for instance, is the foundation on which democracy is built; it is the heart and soul of a free society and the basis for peaceful coexistence. This holds particularly true in Kenya. To manage the conflicting interests of diverse subcultures, all citizens, regardless of their political, economic, and ethnocultural affiliation, must be subject to the law. Thus, a governing process undergirded by the rule of law is critical for a future of peace and development in Kenya.
Topic:
Development, Government, Democracy, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

95. The Autocrats’ Comeback: A Cautionary Tale

Author:
Lauren Mooney
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Autocrats are making a comeback. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent reelection, and the preceding repression of journalists and dissenters, is a prime example of this resurgence and sheds light on the playbook that many aspiring autocrats follow today. Erdoğan and other autocratic leaders voted into power through democratic means are part of a new breed of dictators—ones who swiftly dismantle the democratic system of checks and balances and the separation of powers designed precisely to prevent tyranny. The resulting system is an electoral autocracy—a system that retains the vestiges of democracy, but looks and acts like a traditional dictatorship. And this democratic erosion is ascending in prevalence—from 2000 to 2010, it accounted for 40 percent of all democratic failures. Personalist rule—a distinct mold of autocracy in which power is concentrated in the hands of one individual, sometimes referred to as strongman leaders—is also on the rise. Today, 40 percent of all autocracies are ruled by strongmen.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

96. Women in the Middle East and North Africa: A Divide between Rights and Roles

Author:
Michael Robbins and Kathrin Thomas
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), most publics surveyed believe women should have equal rights to men in a variety of areas including access to university education (75 percent), employment (84 percent), and political oce (62 percent). • Yet, despite widespread support for women’s rights, majorities in many Arab publics favor limiting the roles women play in society. For example, one third believe women are as effective in public leadership compared with men. Six-in-ten believe that the husband should have the final say in decision making within the family. • Unsurprisingly, men are, in general, less supportive of women’s rights and more restrictive in their desired roles for women. Additionally, citizens with lower levels of education are often more likely to hold unequal views, suggesting that as educational attainment increases across MENA, attitudes toward women may also shift. • Overall, these results from nationally representative public opinion surveys carried out by the Arab Barometer imply that exports to improve women’s equality need to move beyond ensuring equal rights to focus on attitudinal shifts about the roles women should play in society.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Politics, Public Opinion, Women, Democracy, Equality, and Political Rights
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

97. Democracy in the Middle East and North Africa: Five Years after the Arab Uprisings

Author:
Natalya Rahman
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), eight-in-ten Arabs believe that democracy is the best system of government, even though it may have problems. This perception seems to have increased in most countries from 2013 to 2016. • There also appears to be consensus regarding the economic performance under democratic government: Less than one third across the region believe that economic performance is weak under democratic governance. • However, Arab views on the flaws of democracies are mixed: One third believe that democracy is ineffective in maintaining stability; four-in-ten think that democracy is indecisive; almost every other person says that the people of their country are not ready for democracy. • With the exception of Palestinians and Algerians, Arab publics predominantly evaluate their countries as more democratic in 2016. They seem to be more skeptical regarding the suitability of democracy to their countries in 2016.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

98. Civic Engagement in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Kathrin Thomas
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Overall, approximately six-in-ten across the MENA region believe that freedom of expression, freedom of association in parties and organizations as well as the freedom of the press is guaranteed in their countries. However, only every other person thinks they also have a guaranteed right to protest. • Two thirds of Arabs also believe they have the ability to criticize their government without fear. • However, turnout is in decline – only every other person reports they have turned out in the last legislative election in their country. Only 15 percent across MENA report they attended a rally in the run-up to the last election. • Formal non-electoral participation also appears at to be at a low point with only one-in-ten stating they have taken part in protest action or attended a meeting and signed a petition at last once during the three years. • Disenchantment with politics may have a new outlet, however: Approximately four-in-ten Internet users across MENA say they use online channels and social media to obtain information about political events. Two-in-ten Internet users also state that they use the online channels to express their opinions about politics and society. • While seemingly disillusioned with politics, Arab publics have a heart for those not so well off: Almost 95 percent across the region say they help the poor even if it comes at a cost to themselves.
Topic:
Government, Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, Internet, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

99. Rising to the Populist Challenge: A new Playbook for Human Rights Actors

Author:
César Rodríguez and Krizna Gómez
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
This book collects and analyzes a repertoire of responses by human rights organizations to the crackdown against civil society in the populist context. Written by scholars and advocates in challenging political settings from around the world, this book offers ideas and inspiration to their peers in the human rights community who are grappling with and resisting the erosion of democracy and rights. This collection takes two steps towards clearing the path for this civil society transformation. First, it clarifies the specific challenges to human rights raised by contemporary populist regimes and movements. What is the populist playbook against human rights? Second, it contributes to documenting and learning from a wealth of initiatives by human rights actors. What innovations are human rights actors introducing into their strategies and narratives to counter those of populist regimes? In short, what is the human rights playbook against populism?
Topic:
Human Rights, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:
Latin America and Global Focus

100. Indispensable Remedy: The Broad Scope of the Constitution’s Impeachment Power

Author:
Gene Healy
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Presidential impeachments are vanishingly rare in American constitutional history: in the 230 years since ratification, only three presidents have faced serious attempts to remove them from office. And yet, as President Donald J. Trump’s tumultuous tenure continues, it seems increasingly plausible that we’ll see a fourth.
Topic:
International Affairs, Democracy, and Constitution
Political Geography:
America