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9641. The Case for U.S. Leadership in Rebuilding Afghanistan

Author:
Wali M. Osman
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
To further its strategic interests and national security, the United States has intervened in Afghanistan twice in less than two decades, first in the fight against the Soviets and then the Taliban. Now, as Afghans attempt to rebuild, American interests are at stake again. Before the Soviet takeover, Afghanistan had been moving slowly toward modernity, its development impeded by ethnic and tribal divisions kept in check by the monarchy's patronage system. Today, the country needs not only a new physical infrastructure but also institutions that will enable it to function as a modern economy, while politically accommodating its diverse and divided population. Democratization and economic development offer the best hope for stability, and specific steps can be taken to achieve these outcomes, but the country cannot move forward without increased security. Warlords contest the authority of the transitional government, which is itself critically divided. Beyond the issue of security, there is the urgent need for a more active commitment of U.S. resources and influence to the political and economic aspects of the reconstruction effort.
Topic:
International Cooperation and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and Taliban

9642. Seeking Justice on the Cheap: Is the East Timor Tribunal Really a Model for the Future?

Author:
David Cohen
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Over the past eight years the UN Security Council has paid some $1.6 billion dollars to operate International Criminal Tribunals in Yugoslavia and Rwanda. Successfully pressured to establish a tribunal in East Timor, the Council sought to cut its costs by creating a new form of tribunal—a "hybrid" tribunal with both international and domestic judges and partially funded and staffed by the national government. Today, though the hybrid tribunal is lauded by the United Nations as a model, the East Timor Tribunal is anything but. Of its meager $6.3 million budget for 2002, $6 million went to the prosecution, which nevertheless has failed to take any high-level perpetrators into custody. The balance was almost all for international judges' salaries, who sorely lack adequate administrative and clerical support. Though some steps have now been taken to improve the training of defense counsel, the Public Defender's unit is so under-funded and inexperienced that it did not call a single witness in any of its first 14 trials. Whether a minimally credible tribunal is better than none at all is the real issue the United Nations has not openly addressed.
Topic:
International Law and United Nations
Political Geography:
Yugoslavia, Rwanda, and Southeast Asia

9643. Managing Asia Pacific's Energy Dependence on the Middle East: Is There a Role for Central Asia?

Author:
Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Middle East is Asia Pacific's largest energy supplier, satisfying a demand for oil that must keep pace with the region's continued economic growth. This dependence on the Middle East has caused Asia Pacific to join the United States and other Western nations in the hunt for alternative suppliers. Central Asia, located between the Middle East and Asia Pacific and already an oil and gas exporter, is an attractive possibility. With energy production projected to rise rapidly over the next decade, Central Asia is poised to become a major player in the world energy market. But the land-locked region's options for transporting oil and gas to Asia Pacific markets are limited and problematic. Passage via pipeline east through China presents construction challenges; south through Iran, or through India and Pakistan via Afghanistan, is fraught with political difficulties. Not until geopolitics become more favorable to the south-bound options, or technologies make the China route possible, will Asia Pacific be able to tap the energy resources of Central Asia.
Topic:
Security and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

9644. Terrorism and America: Five Asia Pacific Perspectives

Author:
Andrew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Gerard Russo
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Asia, a region whose population has long been dominated by children, is seeing the proportion of its elderly rise rapidly. The U.N. projects the population 65 and older will more than quadruple by 2050, while the population under age 15 will decline. Though Asia's population is still younger than the West's, dramatic declines in childbearing and significant improvements in life expectancy are causing it to age faster. The result will be growing demand for health care, retirement systems, and old-age support — particularly if the traditional family support system continues to erode. The challenge to countries with large elderly populations and relatively under-developed economies will be especially great. Throughout Asia, population aging could slow economic growth. If governments are to meet the challenges posed by aging populations, they must start soon to adopt policies that encourage saving and investment, develop effective social and economic institutions, and find new ways to tap the productive potential of older people.
Topic:
Religion and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Asia

9645. US-Russian Lessons for South Asia

Author:
Zia Mia, R. Rajaraman, and Frank von Hippel
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
The current South Asian crisis seems to have ebbed, but the underlying dynamic remains. The next crisis will be even more dangerous if South Asia's nuclear confrontation develops in the same direction as the U.S.-Russian standoff, with nuclear missiles on alert, aimed at each other and ready to launch on warning. As Lee Butler, former head of the U.S. Strategic Command, has said, the U.S. and Soviet Union survived their crises, "no thanks to deterrence, but only by the grace of God." Will South Asia be so fortunate?
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, South Asia, and Asia

9646. Nuclear War in South Asia

Author:
Matthew McKinzie, Zia Mian, M.V. Ramana, and A.H. Nayyar
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
There is a history of war in South Asia. India and Pakistan fought in 1948, 1965, 1971, and 1999. There is good evidence that in no case was there the expectation of a war on the scale and of the kind that ensued. Rather, war followed misadventure, driven by profound errors of policy, political and military judgement, and public sentiment. Nuclear weapons do nothing to lessen such possibilities. There is even reason to believe they may make them worse in South Asia. One lesson of the 1999 Kargil war is that Pakistan saw its newly acquired nuclear weapons as a shield from behind which it could fuel and stoke the conflict in Kashmir, safe from any possible Indian retaliation. During this war, nuclear threats were made publicly by leaders on both sides. It took international intervention to stop the slide to a larger, more destructive war.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

9647. The European Convention and Defence

Author:
Marta Martinelli, Gerrard Quille, Claire Piana, and Jamie Woodbridge
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The Convention WorkingGroup on Defence, chairedby Michel Barnier submitted itsfinal report on December 102002. This article reviews themajor debates within the groupand how they reflect memberstates' positions, in particular inrelation to the recent Franco-German Initiative.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

9648. The Greek Presidency's Programme for the military aspects of ESDP

Author:
Claire Piana, Jamie Woodbridge, and Dermot Doyle
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
Following the Edinburgh agreement of 1992,Denmark waived its right to act as Presidency in all cases involving the elaboration and implementation of decisions having defence implications. Thus Greece now acts on behalf of Denmark on such issues Speaking to the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament (EP) on 11September, the Defence Minister Yiannos Papantoniou introduced the Greek Programme for the military aspects of ESDP.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Denmark

9649. Putting ESDP to the test: The first crisis management exercise

Author:
Catriona Gourlay and Jamie Woodbridge
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
From 22-28 May the EU carried out its first exercise 'CME 02' to test the EU's ability to take decisions on the use of its military and civilian instruments in a crisis situation. While the evaluation process will only be complete by the end of July, it is already widely acknowledged that the exercise revealed that the EU's procedures are broadly adequate, but there is room for improvement particularly in relation to civil-military cooperation.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

9650. The EU's progress in mainstreaming conflict prevention

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Jamie Woodbridge, and Lorraine Mullally
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
At the Seville European Council in June 2002 the Spanish Presidency will present a report on progress made in the implementation of the EU Programme for the Prevention of Violent Conflicts agreed in Göteborg in June 2001. A key element of the EU Programme is its call for the development of mechanisms to mainstream conflict prevention, i.e. to ensure that all EU policies consistently take into consideration their impact on conflict and are tailored to support peace-building processes. This article provides a preliminary review of actions taken to this end.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe