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201. Power sharing: The politics of European-Tunisian energy cooperation

Author:
Philipp Wagner
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Cooperation on clean energy will be an important facet of the EU’s “Pact for the Mediterranean”, a new strategic initiative to connect the bloc with its neighbours in North Africa and beyond. The EU and Tunisia share interests in accelerating the latter’s nascent green transition. But President Kais Saied’s increasing authoritarianism has helped relations sour in recent years. To date, Europeans have also struggled to find a coherent approach to clean energy cooperation with Tunisia, or factor the nuances of its political landscape into their engagement. A new approach following the ethos of the Pact for the Mediterranean—concrete projects that focus on mutual benefits for economies and people across society—could make further cooperation on renewables more feasible. This would boost Tunisia’s economic development and empower its citizens beyond the usual elites. It could also act as a litmus test for the EU’s green diplomacy in other challenging political environments.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Energy
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

202. Reality show: Why Europe must not cave in Trump’s culture war

Author:
Pawel Zerka
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Europe is in a culture war with Trump’s America. Part of this involves Trumpists propping up their ideological allies in European politics. A deeper level involves humiliating Europeans in their dealings with the US. The two intertwine to tell a single story. Trump and his acolytes can only do this because Europeans let them. At the first level Trumpists exploit polarisation in societies and the rise of Europe’s “new right”. At the second they take advantage of division and hesitation among European leaders. It doesn’t have to be this way. A decade of crises has strengthened European sentiment among the public. Almost all member states still have mainstream-led, pro-European governments. This should give the EU’s politicians the courage to act—and defend a Europe that writes its own script. That would also help preserve a strong transatlantic alliance; one in which the EU and European countries are America’s peers, not its subordinates.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Donald Trump, and Culture War
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

203. The bear and the bot farm: Countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa

Author:
Will Brown
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia has made significant inroads in Africa—particularly in Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic and Mali—deploying military operations that, while limited in scope, are often devastating for local civilian populations. At the same time, Moscow has developed a powerful propaganda machine that taps into existing antipathy towards Europe, particularly France, to push African governments closer to its foreign policy objectives. Europeans have no genuine, resolute partner in Africa today. Most governments and elites are skilfully hedging their bets between Europe and Russia. Like-minded Africans and Europeans should push back with comprehensive sanctions on enablers, counter-disinformation campaigns, a re-evaluation of outdated development models, stronger military aid, and support for influencers who can challenge Russia-aligned narratives in local networks.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, Soft Power, Hybrid Warfare, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Europe

204. Eyes wide shut: How to read China’s playbook in the Western Balkans

Author:
Vladimir Shopov
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The EU lacks a clear “China conditionality” in its enlargement policy with Western Balkan countries—that is, defining and implementing conditions for candidates to engage with China—and the topic of China remains largely absent from accession talks. The EU’s own hesitant China policy is in part to blame. The union’s official stance of balancing cooperation and rivalry no longer reflects EU actions in practice, which lean towards confrontation. As membership talks stall, China’s influence in the Western Balkans grows, raising fears that new member states could act as promoters of Chinese interests and veto actions against Beijing in the EU. The EU must clarify its China policy and embed it as a clear conditionality in the accession process. It also needs to establish a firm timeline for Western Balkan membership and strike a better balance between requirements and incentives to encourage progress.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Western Balkans

205. Harnessing AI for ASEAN’s Future: Governance, Adoption, and Sustainability under the DEFA

Author:
Hilmy Prilliadi
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI) presents transformative opportunities for ASEAN, as its market is projected to reach US$30.30 billion by 2030. AI adoption is expected to contribute 10%–18% of ASEAN’s gross domestic product, benefiting key sectors such as manufacturing, health care, and energy. However, AI integration also highlights challenges, including governance gaps, disparities in AI readiness amongst ASEAN Member States, data governance issues, and sustainability concerns. While ASEAN has made progress through initiatives like developing the ASEAN Guide on AI Governance and Ethics, policy fragmentation and uneven AI adoption across ASEAN Member States underscore barriers to inclusive growth. The ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) provides an opportunity to align AI governance in ASEAN with global standards, ensuring a regulatory framework that balances innovation with accountability. This brief highlights AI’s role in ASEAN’s digital economy and proposes policy recommendations to strengthen AI governance; enhance the population’s digital skills; support AI adoption amongst micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises; promote culturally diverse datasets; and advance sustainable AI infrastructure. By fostering regional cooperation and embedding AI-related commitments into the DEFA, ASEAN can harness AI’s potential while actively mitigating its risks.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Artificial Intelligence, Sustainability, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Asia

206. Fostering Inclusive Growth in ASEAN’s Digital Economy Through the DEFA and Regional Cooperation

Author:
Mahirah Mahusin and Hilmy Prilliadi
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Digital transformation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), particularly its rapidly evolving digital economy, could create significant socio-economic transformation, yet persistent obstacles limit widespread and equitable digital engagement across the region. Amongst others, unequal connectivity, high broadband costs, limited digital literacy, and disparities in access for underserved groups such as women, persons with disabilities, and rural communities may exacerbate the digital divide. This policy brief highlights the digital divide, its impact on financial inclusion, the challenges faced by underserved groups, and the unequal distribution of benefits from digital trade across ASEAN. Despite progress under regional frameworks and external agreements, achieving digital inclusion requires more targeted, development-oriented approaches. The Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) presents an opportunity to harmonise policies, support capacity-building initiatives, and align national and regional objectives for inclusive growth. Policy recommendations include provisions to enhance access, improve digital literacy, and foster public–private partnerships to address the needs of underserved populations.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Digital Economy, Innovation, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Asia

207. Good Regulatory Practice (GRP) in ASEAN – Towards Vision 2045 and Beyond

Author:
Intan Murnira Ramli and Mohamad Izahar Mohamad Izham
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In realising a resilient, innovative, dynamic, and people-centred ASEAN by 2045, the region must be guided by the Core Elements of the ASEAN Community’s Post-2025 Vision – endorsed at the 42nd ASEAN Summit in Labuan Bajo, Indonesia. To this end, ASEAN has adopted a strategic plan known as ‘Vision 2045, ’ which outlines its transformation into a globally influential, interconnected, and prosperous region. Vision 2045 expands upon the current ASEAN Community Vision 2025 by addressing contemporary challenges such as digital transformation, environmental sustainability, and socio-economic inequities. This Policy Brief examines the requirements for the next phase of ASEAN’s evolution. Their focus is on ensuring that the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 and the ASEAN Connectivity Strategic Plan 2026–2030 are achieved, particularly through the integration of Good Regulatory Practice (GRP).
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, ASEAN, and Connectivity
Political Geography:
Asia

208. Enhancing ASEAN’s Competitiveness: Strategies for Talent Mobility and Cooperation in the Digital Economy

Author:
Mahirah Mahusin and Hilmy Prilliadi
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This policy paper examines the critical role of talent mobility and cooperation in fostering innovation and addressing the growing digital skills gap in ASEAN. Despite rapid growth in the region’s digital economy, the talent pool remains insufficient to meet the demands of information and communications technology and knowledge-based industries. Current ASEAN efforts, such as the ASEAN Agreement on the Movement of Natural Persons and various mutual recognition arrangements, have not fully addressed these challenges. This paper argues that integrating talent mobility and development provisions into the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) will enhance regional competitiveness. By promoting regional cooperation, addressing skill gaps, and creating a unified framework for talent development, the DEFA can support ASEAN’s transition towards an innovation-driven economy. Key recommendations include the establishment of a regional dialogue platform, creation of a region-wide ‘tech pass’, and increased private sector involvement in workforce development.
Topic:
Digital Economy, Mobility, Innovation, ASEAN, and Competition
Political Geography:
Asia

209. How Much, How Well: Development Finance Performance 2025

Author:
Sam Hughes, Ian Mitchell, and Edward Wickstead
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
This brief examines how the 40 most important development finance providers perform in terms of both the quantity and quality of their contributions. Although several major providers recently announced significant cuts to their finance that are not yet reflected in the data, our analysis establishes the baseline for those reductions. We draw on a set of key indicators to identify shortcomings in how development finance is provided, and which providers could improve. Key findings: Even before cuts announced this year, the true volume of cross-border finance for international development fell in 2024. Despite hopes that newer providers might step up, in the latest available data the fall was slightly more pronounced in non-traditional providers, who made up 9.5 percent of the reduced total, down from 11.5 percent in our 2023 assessment and from 16.2 percent in 2020. Seven countries are providing less than half of their fair share of development finance—a much smaller share of their economy than one would expect given their income level. This includes Argentina, Australia, Chile, Hungary, Israel, Russia, and the US.[1] In addition, Austria, Czechia, Ireland, and Switzerland provide much less than expected: 0.1 percent of GNI below the average of countries with similar income-levels. Regardless of the quantity of contributions, there is significant scope to improve the quality of development finance. Our analysis shows, for example, a sustained trend away from providing finance to the poorest countries over recent years—the income of the average recipient country is now more than twice that of the low-income country average. Providing finance multilaterally offers scale and facilitates international cooperation, and many multilaterals are assessed as highly effective. Still, 12 countries provide under a quarter of their finance multilaterally, leaving others to support multilateralism. These countries include Norway, Japan, and New Zealand among OECD providers; and Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates in the broader group. In one bright spot, new analysis of recipient survey data suggests that recipients are expressing greater ownership of assistance programs. In our combined ranking of quantity and quality, we find Luxembourg has overtaken Sweden as the top performer on development finance while Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands complete the top five. Five countries with significant room for improvement in quality are New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Poland, and Türkiye—these countries are in the middle in terms of volume but all rank in the bottom third on quality.
Topic:
Poverty, Foreign Aid, Multilateralism, and Development Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

210. A New Era for Global Health: Can African Countries Agree a New Compact with External Donors?

Author:
Anastassia Demeshko, Tom Drake, and Nadia Yakhelef
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
African health systems are at a crossroads, grappling with systemic challenges including workforce shortages, underfunded infrastructure, and climate-driven health burdens. Volatile financing—driven by unpredictable donor commitments and competing global priorities—has left countries vulnerable to disruptions in essential services. The urgency for reform is amplified by overlapping crises, from pandemic recovery to climate shocks, demanding a reimagined approach to health financing that prioritises African agency and long-term sustainability.
Topic:
Development, Finance, Donors, and Global Health
Political Geography:
Africa

211. Aid for Asylum Hosting: Time to Act

Author:
Laura Chappell, Sam Hughes, and Ian Mitchell
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Following the recently announced cuts to aid spending—taking official development assistance (ODA) from 0.5 percent of GNI to 0.3 percent—it is time for the government to act, to ensure that asylum- and refugee-related costs[I] take up a smaller proportion of the ODA budget. Without action, refugee-related costs could exceed a third of total ODA spending.[ii] At present the FCDO effectively funds any ODA-eligible asylum-related cost that the Home Office can identify. This has contributed to significant unnecessary expenditure on refugee-related costs, with the UK now spending over two-and-a-half times more ODA per refugee than any other G7 economy. This approach also generated extremely high levels of unpredictability in the aid budget, with in-year budget changes larger in percentage terms than, for example, the annual cuts expected of any government department during coalition government austerity. But with a reduced overall ODA budget, the UK must do more to reduce the impact of refugee spending on aid spending. In a much more fiscally constrained environment, every available pound will be required for vital international work. And the FCDO will not have the budget latitude to absorb significant fluctuations in refugee spending, if—as could be the case—its allocable budget is not much larger than potential refugee hosting costs. We identify five options for improving the situation that could be adopted at the forthcoming spending review—or sooner. These options would provide additional downward pressure on refugee-related costs, while also increasing the predictability of the UK’s international spend.
Topic:
Migration, Displacement, Asylum, and Development Assistance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

212. Policy Brief 19: Fragile foundations: Niger's Assises Nationales and the challenge of political renewal

Author:
Antje Herrberg
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The policy brief analyses the Assises Nationales de la Refondation held in Niger in early 2025. It explores the process as a national dialogue aimed at redefining the country’s political order following the 2023 military coup. The brief evaluates the legitimacy, inclusiveness, and implications of the dialogue and the resulting Charter of Refoundation, which functions as a transitional constitution.
Topic:
Politics, Coup, National Dialogue, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Niger

213. Projections for geopolitical competition to EU Democracy Promotion

Author:
Isabelle Ioannides
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy brief is authored by Dr. Isabelle Ioannides (Senior Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme – ELIAMEP) and published in the context of the project EMBRACing changE – Overcoming Obstacles and Advancing Democracy in the European Neighbourhood (EMBRACE). EMBRACE is a multi-country research initiative (2022–2025) that seeks to strengthen the capacity of EU policymakers and pro-democracy actors to develop effective strategies for democracy promotion across five regions: the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa. It combines comparative analysis, stakeholder engagement, and new data collection to identify the obstacles and enablers of democratisation and to design practical policy tools for European democracy promotion. Focusing on Work Package 7 – The Geopolitics of EUDP, this policy brief addresses the turbulent geopolitical landscape in which EU democracy promotion must operate. Russia’s and China’s assertive roles, including disinformation campaigns, combine with heightened regional instability, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the spread of polarisation and populism within and beyond Europe. These developments create a volatile environment that constrains democratic progress in the EU’s neighbourhood and, in some cases, drives democratic backsliding. The brief stresses that the EU’s democracy promotion cannot be viewed in isolation from these broader geopolitical dynamics. Against this backdrop, the EMBRACE project organised scenario-building workshops in North Macedonia, Serbia, Ukraine, and Georgia, and conducted stakeholder interviews in Algeria. These consultations had a twofold aim: to assess the democratic trajectories and risks facing each country by 2030, and to evaluate how the EU can mitigate challenges while reinforcing democratic enablers. The locally led approach ensured that country-specific insights and informal power dynamics were captured, helping to refine projections for how external and internal pressures may shape democracy in the coming years. The brief concludes by offering recommendations for the EU to recalibrate its democracy promotion strategies under conditions of geopolitical competition and uncertainty. It underlines that effectiveness depends on tailoring approaches to local realities, anticipating risks through foresight and scenario planning, and reinforcing the EU’s credibility as a consistent and strategic actor. By integrating evidence-based insights and locally grounded perspectives, the policy brief contributes to EMBRACE’s broader mission of equipping the EU with more adaptive and resilient tools for advancing democracy in its neighbourhood.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe

214. A deep dive in the White Paper on the Future of European Defence

Author:
Spyros Blavoukos and Panos Politis-Lamprou
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The White Paper on the Future of European Defence, released in March 2025, represents a landmark initiative by the European Commission to articulate a cohesive vision for strengthening the EU’s defence posture amid mounting geopolitical instability. Acting as a framework for the ReArm Europe plan, the document proposes mobilising hundreds of billions of EUR in defence investments, making use of national and EU resources. The ReArm Europe Plan and the White Paper clearly succeed in politically signalling the EU’s renewed commitment to defence investment and military readiness. However, despite their rhetorical strength, four major concerns could undermine their transformative potential: Coordination gaps: Without a robust coordination mechanism, national funds may be allocated to less pressing areas and may serve other – national and/or domestic – objectives and interests. In the meantime, the Union will not achieve effectiveness and efficiency unless it focuses on standardisation and interoperability. Financial markets’ sensitivity: While the activation of the national escape clause offers fiscal leeway, it is unclear how the financial markets will react to increased national debts. Alternative instruments, such as the Defence Eurobonds or the European Defence Mechanism, could be examined. Creative ambiguity: The Proposal for a SAFE Regulation includes references presented vaguely enough to allow for multiple interpretations and thus avoid frictions. In view of the negotiations in the Council, the issue of a third country’s participation in a procurement consortium must be further elaborated and clarified. Democratic legitimacy and parliamentary oversight: Article 122 TFEU sidesteps the European Parliament, despite the latter’s willingness to further support the EU defence initiatives. Without adequate parliamentary involvement, defence investments risk alienating public opinion in a policy area which requires broad societal consensus. All the aforementioned shortcomings reflect a deeper structural issue: the absence of a common threat perception and a truly common foreign and security policy. Without a coherent strategic vision at the EU level, member-states remain inclined to prioritise national over collective objectives and interests.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, Financial Markets, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe

215. The EU’s Democracy Promotion and Geopolitical Competition

Author:
Ioannis Armakolas, Dimitar Bechev, and Ana Krstinovska
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy paper is authored by Ioannis Armakolas, Head & Senior Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP, Dimitar Bechev, Senior Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP, and Ana Krstinovska, Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP is published in the context of the of the project EMBRACing changE – Overcoming Blockages and Advancing Democracy in the European Neighbourhood. EMBRACE is a multi-country research initiative that aims to enhance democracy promotion efforts in the EU’s neighbourhood by identifying key obstacles to democratisation and formulating evidence-based strategies to overcome them. The project draws on locally led research and stakeholder engagement across twelve case studies in five regions: the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa. Focusing on Work Package 7 of the project, the report “The EU’s Democracy Promotion and Geopolitical Competition” examines how the European Union’s democracy promotion efforts are shaped and challenged by both external authoritarian actors, primarily Russia and China, and internal political dynamics within partner countries. The report offers an in-depth comparative analysis of five case study countries: Algeria, Georgia, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine. The authors analyse how authoritarian rivals deploy various forms of coercion, subversion, and co-optation, often exploiting internal political vulnerabilities. They also highlight how domestic elites navigate this external competition, at times instrumentalising their ties with Russia and China to entrench their power and limit EU influence. In this geopolitical context, the paper finds that EU democracy promotion tools are most impactful when tied to credible enlargement prospects and implemented with consistency and strategic sensitivity to local conditions. The paper concludes that democracy promotion is no longer merely a matter of institutional design or normative appeal, it has become a geopolitical contest where foreign influence and domestic agency intersect. As such, future EU strategies must account for this complexity and tailor instruments to local realities while remaining steadfast in their democratic commitments. The report closes with concrete policy recommendations aimed at refining the EU’s approach, particularly in geopolitically contested environments.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

216. Between Power and Paradox: Militarisation, Defence Ambitions, and Turkey’s Strategic Struggles

Author:
Ahmet Erdi Öztürk and Can Selçuki
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Turkey occupies a distinctive position—geographically proximate to the epicentres of regional crises and institutionally is embedded in Western security structures such as NATO. However, Turkey is more than a geopolitical bridge; it has emerged as a multidimensional actor with ambitions to act both as a regional stabilizer and as a global mediator. Turkey’s position within this evolving global order is both advantageous and inherently paradoxical. As a long-standing NATO member, Turkey remains structurally embedded in the Western security architecture. Yet its geostrategic identity—historically, culturally, and geographically intertwined with the volatile landscapes of Eurasia, the Middle East, and North Africa—drives it to adopt a multi-vector foreign policy. From an economic standpoint, Turkey’s position remains marked by deep-seated contradictions. While its customs union with the European Union and strategic access to multiple regional markets confer structural advantages, these are significantly offset by institutional fragility, regulatory ambiguity, and elevated geopolitical risk premiums. Turkey’s defence industry has evolved into more than a military instrument; it is now a key lever for diplomatic influence and geopolitical ambition. Positioned at the heart of NATO, yet often at odds with its Western allies, Ankara has expanded its strategic footprint across the Middle East, North Africa, and the Caucasus by leveraging domestically-developed military platforms. Turkey must articulate a clear strategic rationale to underpin its defence investments. This involves moving beyond reactive threat perceptions and developing a holistic framework that aligns defence policy with broader developmental and diplomatic objectives. The protection of democratic institutions is an integral part of this framework, while two interrelated concepts are essential: economic security and open strategic autonomy.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Geopolitics, Defense Industry, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

217. Turkey’s Defence Industry and the EU SAFE Regulation

Author:
Dimitris Tsarouhas
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
From Ottoman-era modernization through to its advanced capabilities today, Turkey has transformed itself into a major global defence exporter, with $6.3 billion in exports in 2024 and flagship products like the Bayraktar TB2 drone. Turkey leverages its NATO membership and geographic position to strengthen defence ties and secure influence in alliance decision-making, while at the same time contributing to the Alliance advanced technologies. The EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative allocates €150 billion for joint defence procurement to boost Europe’s defence industrial base, reduce reliance on non-EU suppliers, and enhance interoperability. Ankara’s SAFE participation rationale rests on enabling technological collaboration, market access, and stronger EU ties, leveraging Turkey’s expertise in drone systems, cybersecurity, and unmanned technologies. Turkey’s SAFE participation should remain conditional on Ankara improving its bilateral political relations with member states, and on making explicit assurances on the inviolability of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all EU member states.
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regulation, Exports, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

218. A Strategy for Greece’s Defence Technological Industrial Base

Author:
Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece is entering a new phase in European unification. In addition to monetary union, we now have a defence union. The Greek Defence Technological Industrial Base (GDTIB) is in a position to rise to this challenge. With the help of realistic public policies, it could be included in the top three DTIBs among the eleven frontline EU states, alongside those of Finland and Poland. The successful integration of the GDTIB into the pan-European DTIB will strengthen the Greek Armed Forces, make the defence sector one of Greece’s economy most capital- and knowledge-intensive ones , and enhance Greece’s strategic alliances. Specifically, the more that the GDIB exports to the pan-European DTIB as it grows by leaps and bounds, the more it will advance the productive and innovation capacities which Greece’s military deterrence needs in an era which has witnessed the return of ‘Big War’.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, European Union, Deterrence, and Industry
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

219. The NSRF and the Recovery Fund in Greece, 2021-2027: the institutional dimension

Author:
George Andreou
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
During the current decade, Greece’s development policies are guided and supported by both the Cohesion Policy through the 2021-2027 Partnership Pact for Regional Development (NSRF) and the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan “Greece 2.0”. The parallel action of these two programming and funding instruments represents an unprecedented development opportunity for Greece and its Regions, but raises important issues of strategy, coordination and management. This paper focuses on the institutional architecture and the governance and implementation mechanisms of the NSRF and the RRF and attempts to explore the implications of these institutional arrangements for public policy in Greece.
Topic:
Development, Governance, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

220. What future for rule of law protection? Towards a more effective use of the EU’s toolbox under the vdL 2.0 Commission

Author:
Maria Skóra
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Threats to the rule of law in the EU persist. Halting rule of law erosion in Poland has brought only temporary relief. Continued backsliding in Hungary and recent setbacks in Slovakia pose a threat to European integration and the EU’s legal order. Moreover, illiberal Eurosceptics are also on the rise in other countries, like Italy, Germany, France. Given the potential EU enlargement and the urgent reset of EU’s security and defence architecture, next to defending democracy, it is also crucial to continue strengthening the rule of law within the EU. Faced by the above-mentioned dire developments, the first von der Leyen Commission (2019-2024) placed the rule of law in the spotlight, developing a rule of law toolbox consisting of monitoring and corrective tools. The second von der Leyen Commission (2024-2029) vowed to take this matter seriously, making the strategic decision to continue tackling rule of law erosion by applying financial pressure, in particular: the instruments for protecting the EU budget. This Policy Brief looks at the future of rule of law protection under the vdL 2.0 Commission. It takes stock of the past failures and achievements, identifying paths towards a more effective use of the existing EU’s toolbox. It advocates for further development of financial conditionality, and making it a standard practice as well as building solid causal links between conditionality and the existing monitoring tools in order to avoid accusations of its arbitrary and politicised use. Consistency should become a guiding principle to foster the EU’s commitment to upholding the rule of law.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, European Union, Rule of Law, European Commission, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Hungary

221. From Reception to Reconstruction: Leveraging a multi-stakeholder approach to displaced Ukrainians’ inclusion

Author:
European Policy Centre
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The European Union (EU) hosts around 4.2 million displaced Ukrainians under temporary protection, granting them access to various socio-economic rights and allowing intra-EU mobility. Their employment rate is higher than other migrant and refugee groups, yet structural barriers persist, affecting integration outcomes. Temporary protection is set to expire in March 2026, compounding challenges. A potential US-imposed ceasefire adds uncertainty, making long-term planning difficult. While prospects for an EU-wide status for displaced Ukrainians post-2026 are unclear, they can already obtain national permits in some states. Many still hope to return to Ukraine, although this prospect depends on the economic and security situation in Europe and Ukraine, and grows less likely over time. Amid the combined effect of unspeakable devastation from Russia’s full-scale invasion and demographic decline in Ukraine, the country’s reconstruction – and in particular, the future of critical sectors such as construction, transport, agriculture, and public services – depends on displaced Ukrainians’ potential return.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Refugees, Displacement, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

222. Securing Europe’s civic space: Investing in democracy in the next MFF

Author:
Liza Saris
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
As Europe navigates a period of significant geopolitical transformation and rising illiberalism around the world, the foundational principles of Europe’s liberal democratic societies face challenges from within and from without. Across the continent, civil society organisations (CSOs), including think tanks, have to withstand immense pressures ranging from growing funding constraints to increasingly hostile operating environments. In recent months, clear political obstacles to safeguard civil society funding have emerged from within the European Parliament and the European Commission, as well as at the national level. Hostility towards independent CSOs is worsening thanks to the emboldening of political movements and organisations that are funded by governments who oppose a strong civil society. This trend has the potential to negatively influence upcoming negotiations about funding in the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), which includes the Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values (CERV) programme.
Topic:
Civil Society, Budget, European Union, European Commission, Council of Europe, and Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF)
Political Geography:
Europe

223. Military retention crisis undermines Europe’s defence surge

Author:
Chris Kremidas-Courtney
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Europe is racing to rearm, but its militaries are losing talent faster than they can recruit it. Unless governments prioritize retention, Europe risks building hollow forces that look strong on paper but can’t deliver when it matters. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered Europe’s most profound defence awakening in decades. It is a moment where the continent must reckon with hard choices and, finally, take ownership of its own security. European governments are rearming and raising defence budgets in response to the renewed threat from Moscow. Collective defence spending by EU countries jumped over 30% between 2021 and 2024, and NATO allies have announced ambitious plans to grow their armed forces.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Defense Spending, Russia-Ukraine War, and Armament
Political Geography:
Europe

224. Enhancing Social Protection Amidst Fiscal Constraints: The Botswana 2025/26 Budget

Author:
Lillian Mookodi
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Botswana has long demonstrated a strong commitment to social protection, with established programmes to support vulnerable populations, reduce poverty, and promote social cohesion. Over the years, these initiatives have played a pivotal role in improving livelihoods and fostering economic inclusion, and reflecting the country’s dedication to inclusive development and social welfare. The 2025/26 budget builds on this legacy by introducing new programmes to improve financial security, child welfare, and housing. These key measures signal Botswana’s strategic shift towards a more inclusive and efficient social protection system, but their long-term success depends on effective implementation, fiscal sustainability, and continuous programme evaluation to ensure delivery of meaningful impact to those who need them most.
Topic:
Poverty, Budget, Sustainable Development, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

225. Budgeting for Effective Anti-Corruption Initiatives in Botswana

Author:
Marumo Omotoye
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Corruption remains a significant challenge to governance and economic development in Botswana. To tackle this issue, strategic budgeting is essential to ensure that anti-corruption agencies, such as the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crime, Office of the Auditor General, Financial Intelligence Agency, and Ethics and Integrity Directorate, have the necessary resources to operate independently and efficiently. This Budget Brief examines how enhancing accountability and transparency in budgeting can improve the effectiveness of Botswana’s anti-corruption initiatives. Its thematic focus is on Phase 1 (Halting the financial haemorrhaging in Government) of the Government of Botswana’s strategy to build an inclusive economy.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Economic Development, and Budgeting
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

226. Egypt’s Expanding Role in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Amanuel Dessalegn Gedebo
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Egypt is stepping up its military, diplomatic and economic presence in the Horn of Africa. In recent months, Cairo has signed a series of economic and security agreements with countries in the region and is preparing to deploy troops to Somalia. These developments come at a time when Egypt is locked in a long-standing water dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which was inaugurated in early September this year. At the same time, Ethiopia’s quest for a direct sea access has strained its relations with its neighbors, some of whom appear to be aligning with Cairo to counterbalance Addis Ababa. If not carefully managed, these dynamics could have serious repercussions for regional stability. First, intensifying competition between Egypt, Ethiopia and other powers risks inflaming ongoing conflicts in Sudan and Somalia. Second, deeper Egyptian involvement could further strain Ethiopia’s already tense relations with its neighbours. Most concerning, an Egyptian military presence in Somalia raises the risk of miscalculation and the possibility of direct confrontation between Egypt and Ethiopia. The Horn of Africa, already beset by multiple conflicts and crowded with external actors vying for influence, can ill afford a further escalation of geopolitical rivalries. Instability in the region would also have consequences far beyond its borders. The African Union, together with the European Union, China and the United States, should therefore use their influence, individually or in concert, to encourage Ethiopia and Egypt to return to negotiations on Nile dispute, help defuse regional tensions linked to Ethiopia’s quest for sea access, and prevent Somalia and Sudan from becoming arenas of proxy conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, African Union, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Horn of Africa

227. Saudi and Emirati engagement in Iraq: From sectarianism to investment

Author:
Máté Szalai
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In addition to the relative stabilisation of Iraq’s security situation, the growing engagement of Gulf states can be attributed to the learning process and changing attitudes in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and elsewhere concerning their various failed attempts to shore up influence in Iraq in the post-2003 period. Until the rise and defeat of Islamic State (IS), most Gulf states pursued a heavily sectarian approach to deal with security risks such as next-door instability and Iranian influence. This tended to amount to supporting Sunni political and militant organisations in Iraq’s periphery against the Iran-backed Shia-dominated political centre. However, the ‘defeat’ of IS, the fragmentation and polarisation of the Shia political landscape, and the changes in Saudi foreign policy implemented by Mohamed bin Salman (MbS) enabled a shift in focus to broader economic and security engagement. This brief aims to interpret and map current Saudi and Emirati efforts to build political, security and economic influence in Iraq and the effects of such efforts on the evolution and stability of Iraq’s current political settlement. An overview of the general Saudi and Emirati strategy towards Iraq since 2017 is followed by a mapping of the main security, political and economic engagement of the two countries after 2020, together with a broad assessment of their effects. The paper aims to contribute to a European re-evaluation of the Gulf states’ strategy towards Iraq. It also assesses the effects of this strategy on the evolution of the Iraqi political system.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Sectarianism, Economy, Economic Growth, Investment, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates

228. Towards Green Industrial Partnerships

Author:
Hannah Lentschig, Giulia Cretti, and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The European Commission’s Clean Industrial Deal (CID) seeks to accelerate industrial decarbonization, reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports and reinforce economic resilience through stronger technological innovation. This Clingendael Policy Brief explores how partnerships with other countries can support the CID’s objectives. Cooperation for added value around energy and critical raw materials can help to position the EU as a strategic and reliable partner, fostering economic resilience both at home and abroad. Operationalizing this requires clear communication about the EU’s geostrategic interests and a more explicit focus on partner countries’ key concerns, particularly regarding the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Risk-mitigating instruments such as public financial guarantees and CBAM revenues can be more strategically deployed to ramp up private investments under the Global Gateway. This can help to incentivize technology exchange and capacity development in partner countries while bolstering European companies’ competitiveness abroad. Finally, coordination between the EU level and Member States is essential to mainstream green industrial objectives across EU foreign policy, trade and finance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Renewable Energy, European Commission, Energy, and Green Industry
Political Geography:
Europe

229. Rethinking Ethiopia's National Dialogue

Author:
Amanuel Dessalegn Gedebo
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Ethiopia is entering a critical period ahead of its 2026 general elections, marked by intensifying armed conflicts, shrinking political space, and a faltering economy. In this context, the government’s flagship National Dialogue process, intended to foster consensus on divisive national issues, risks becoming mere window dressing. While the Dialogue Commission has made progress in convening political actors, its credibility is undermined by the exclusion of key opposition and armed groups, as well as concerns over its independence. This policy brief examines whether the National Dialogue, in its current form, can meaningfully address Ethiopia’s deepening political crisis. It explores the interplay between ongoing civil wars in Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray, the government’s increasingly repressive tactics, and the limitations of the dialogue process. The brief argues that without urgent reforms to ensure inclusiveness and political openness, the National Dialogue may further entrench instability rather than resolve it. It concludes with recommendations for the Ethiopian government and its international partners, including the EU and the Netherlands, on how to recalibrate their approach to support a more credible and constructive path forward.
Topic:
Civil War, Elections, Domestic Politics, Instability, Fragmentation, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

230. Armenia and Azerbaijan: Peace or Pause?

Author:
Marina Ohanjanyan
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
At the White House in Washington, on August 8th, Armenia and Azerbaijan initialled a peace deal and signed an agreement on the establishment of the Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP): a transport link connecting Azerbaijan-proper with its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, which had been a contentious issue in the peace negotiations. While the imagery and potential positive consequences of this should not be underestimated, much is still unclear about what the agreements actually mean, including certain formulations and their interpretation as well as the question of how long the US commitment to the region will last. At the same time, the Washington summit represents an opening and a positive momentum for further development of not only the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, but larger connectivity in South-Caucasus, and several capitals will have been watching the proceedings keenly. This paper first briefly discusses the agreements reached and some of the remaining questions surrounding them, and then analyses the attitudes and/or reactions of the US, Russia, Iran, Türkiye and the EU, which in some cases, will be crucial to the success or failure of the initiative.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and United States of America

231. A Burden or a Boost? Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence in European Agriculture

Author:
Marjoleine Hennis
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) cycle is being discussed amid geopolitical and global trade tensions, and a shift in focus (by the European Commission) to the competitiveness of the European Union (EU). The discussions are taking place in parallel with the introduction of certain sustainability measures of the Green Deal. These measures, such as the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), are often presented as contrasting with competitiveness, or as an additional administrative burden. Instead, this policy brief highlights the potential benefits of the sustainability measures for European agriculture. It argues that, if applied astutely, the measures could boost the EU’s competitiveness and food security, whilst easing regulatory burdens, and reinforcing the position of farmers in agri-food chains.
Topic:
Agriculture, European Union, Food Security, Sustainability, and Green Deal
Political Geography:
Europe

232. Armenia’s Changing Relationship With Russia

Author:
Marina Ohanjanyan
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Armenia is distancing itself from Russia after Moscow failed to support it in the conflict with Azerbaijan Armenia is diversifying its foreign policy toward the EU and US to reduce reliance on a single partner Armenia still depends on Russia—especially in trade, energy, and the economy—making it hard to make 'either-or' choices The EU can help Yerevan reduce its reliance on Russia by deepening cooperation in these areas Continued European backing for Armenia’s democratic development through incentives and conditionality is essential
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Economy, Trade, and Energy
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Armenia

233. The Crisis of Belarusian Sovereignty

Author:
Kaspar Pucek
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Belarus is facing a potentially existential crisis as Russia’s growing influence threatens its existence as a sovereign state. This is to a significant extent a result of Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation. European policymakers should look for opportunities to strength Belarusian sovereignty and strategic autonomy through pragmatic engagement. Pragmatic engagement should focus primarily on normalising diplomatic relations and targeted sanctions relief.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Sanctions, Pragmatism, Foreign Influence, and Political Engagement
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

234. The Sudanese army on the battlefield: Strategic context and possible trajectories

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Sudanese army recaptured Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira State, after striking the Rapid Support Forces and weakening their position. Using Wad Madani’s strategic location, the army lifted the siege on Khartoum's General Command, recovered signalling equipment and the oil refinery, setting up for future operations in Darfur.
Topic:
Civil War, Armed Forces, Armed Conflict, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

235. The decentralization question: Implications of the Kurdish calculus for the Syrian state

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
In April 2025, Kurdish leaders in Syria proposed a decentralized democratic state, challenging an earlier accord between SDF leader Mazloum Abdi and Damascus. The Syrian government rejected federalism, citing national unity. Fragmentation and regional tensions now complicate hopes for a peaceful resolution.
Topic:
Kurds, Decentralization, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Political Transition, and Mazloum Abdi
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

236. A seismic shift: Toward the integration of the SDF in Syrian institutions

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Syrian Democratic Forces' agreement to join Syria's state institutions marks a major step toward unification. This progress has been shaped by changes in both internal and external contexts. However, challenges remain, particularly in agreeing on the details and dealing with external interventions.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Institutions, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Intervention, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

237. Suwayda Shows Israel’s Determination to Undermine the Syrian State

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Israel blocked Syria from enforcing control in Suwayda, citing Druze protection. Since Assad’s era, it has used varied pretexts to justify ongoing strikes, weakening Syria’s ability to govern or defend itself, aiming to keep it subordinate and incapable of regaining occupied lands.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Syrian War, Druze, Protection, and Airstrikes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Suwayda

238. The new Syria: Major challenges of the transition

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
After Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow, Syria's new leaders face key challenges: ensuring security and unifying weapons under a single defence ministry, though some armed factions oppose this. Another challenge is agreeing on the state’s identity, which was expected to be addressed in a national conference, but progress stalled.
Topic:
Leadership, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, National Dialogue, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

239. The dissolution of the PKK: Strengthening Turkey internally and externally

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The PKK announced its dissolution and renounced armed struggle, triggering internal rifts but also paving the way for greater Kurdish political participation in Turkey, increased state investment in development, and stronger ties between Turkey, Iraq and Europe.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, PKK, Public Investment, Political Participation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

240. Iran in the Israeli Calculus: What Comes Next?

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Israeli-American war on Iran has not fully achieved its intended goals. While it may have caused significant damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities and gained relative advantage in armed confrontations, the underlying hostilities remain unresolved, escalating the risk of renewed military conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, Nuclear Energy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

241. The war on Iran: End of the battle is a prelude to the next round

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Israel launched a war on Iran to halt its nuclear project. Iran hit vital Israeli sites in response. Unable to act alone, Israel relied on U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Qatari mediation secured a ceasefire, but without resolving root causes, making future escalation likely.
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Escalation, Airstrikes, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

242. Bitter Pill for Brussels? Trump’s Fight with Irish Pharma

Author:
Oskar Fairbairn, Lena Fiedler, and Aoife Hanley
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Around 60% of Irish net exports to US are pharma products. Charging a 200% US tariff would devastate all EU exports, not just Ireland’s. Still, business leaders in Ireland are confident that pharma’s competitiveness will help it survive.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Multinational Corporations, Exports, Trade, and Pharmaceuticals
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, Ireland, and United States of America

243. An Alliance for Open Trade: How to Counter Trump’s Tariffs

Author:
Julian Hinz, Keith Head, Isabelle Mejean, Emanuel Ornelas, and Moritz Schularick
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Trump’s renewed tariffs on traditional allies—including the EU, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil—signal a return to aggressive protectionism, openly disregarding WTO rules and threatening the stability of the global trade system. The authors argue that unilateral retaliation by individual countries is unlikely to be effective; instead, only a coordinated response by a broad coalition of affected nations—such as the EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and South Korea—can exert meaningful economic pressure on the United States. This policy brief proposes that such a joint response should remain WTO-compliant, target politically sensitive sectors of the U.S. economy (including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture), and be framed not as punitive, but as a principled defense of the rules-based international trade order. Timely and coordinated action is critical, as further delays risk deepening fragmentation and inflicting long-term damage on the multilateral trading system.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Tariffs, Free Trade, Trade Policy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

244. Transatlantic Ties beyond Goods Trade: Significance and Policy Implications of EU-U.S. Services Trade

Author:
Frank Bickenbach, Holger Görg, and Wan-Hsin Liu
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Trade in services is an important component of international trade and is becoming increasingly more important with growth rates exceeding the rates with which goods trade increases. This is also true in the bilateral U.S. – EU relationship: Trade in services, and especially trade in digitally deliverable services, is a highly important element of the economic relations between the U.S. and the EU. And it is growing much faster than goods trade between the two economies. Despite its importance, trade in services has received much less attention in political and public discussions on the transatlantic trade relationship – even beyond the current narrow focus on the U.S. goods trade deficit. Against this background this policy brief attempts to explore major developing trends over time in EU-U.S. services trade in general and EU-U.S. trade in digitally deliverable services in particular. In addition to services trade, we analyze the development of services supplied by affiliates of U.S. multinationals in the EU and of those supplied by EU affiliates in the U.S. We provide policy suggestions based on data-driven insights derived from the analysis.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Services, Trade, Digitalization, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

245. Trade Wars and Currency Wars – Lessons from History

Author:
Kris James Mitchener and Kirsten Wandschneider
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Explaining President Trump’s “Liberation-day” tariffs on April 2nd, 2025, Stephen Miran, President Trump’s chairman of the council of economic advisors suggested that countries accept the U.S. tariffs without retaliation to come to a fair “burden sharing”(Miran: 2025). History shows that this assumption is wrong: using a detailed data set of bilateral trade flows constructed for the interwar period, this column shows that in fact the US faced substantial and widespread retaliation from trade partners in response to the U.S. Tariff Act of 1930 (i.e., the Smoot-Hawley Tariff). U.S. exports to retaliating countries fell by as much as 33%, with U.S. trade partners specifically targeting high-end, branded consumer products, such as U.S. autos. The drop in trade contributed to the Great Depression, which in turn triggered a large currency war: between 1929 and 1936, 70 countries devalued their currencies relative to gold. We show that trade was further reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. The currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs. The 1930s are a potent reminder of what can happen when international policy coordination breaks down and countries go it alone when negotiating trade and exchange-rate policies.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Trade Policy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

246. The consequences of the Trump trade war for Europe

Author:
Julian Hinz, Isabelle Mejean, and Moritz Schularick
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
• Using the KITE model suite, we study the economic costs of the Trump tariff policy for Europe, and analyze the potential for trade diversion from China. • If the current tariff regime stays in place, trade between the U.S. and China would fall dramatically, hurting mainly the U.S. and the Chinese economies. The direct economic impact for Europe appears limited. • The expected rerouting of Chinese and U.S. exports to third countries is likely to intensify competition between European and Chinese producers in key markets. European consumersstand to benefit from lower prices.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
China, Europe, North America, and United States of America

247. Ukraine Aid: How Europe Can Replace US Support

Author:
Giuseppe Irto, Ivan Kharitonov, Taro Nishikawa, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just 0.1% of their annual GDP on bilateral aid for Ukraine - a minor effort. To replace US aid flows and keep total support at the same level: Europe needs to double its yearly support to an average level of 0.21% of GDP. This is less than half of what Denmark and the Baltics are already doing and on a level of what Poland and the Netherlands do. In short: Europe as a whole would need to follow Scandinavia’s or Poland’s example. In absolute terms (billions of Euro), the biggest European countries and the EU Institutions will be decisive. To replace US aid and get to 0.21% of GDP, Europe as a whole needs to increase its yearly aid flow from currently €44 bn per year to €82 bn per year. The biggest donors for that effort will be the EU institutions (Commission and EIB), who will need to increase their annual support from currently €16 bn to €36 bn per year. Next comes Germany (from currently €6 billion to at least €9 billion per year), then Great Britain (from €5 to €6.5 bn per year), then France (from currently just €1.5 bn to €6 bn per year), Italy (from currently just €0.8 bn to €4.5 bn) and Spain (from just €0.5 bn to €3 bn per year). All remaining European donors would need to move from €14 bn to €16.5 bn per year. To avoid freeriding, we recommend offering financial incentives to those countries giving aid to Ukraine. Big Ukrainian donors (in % of GDP) could get priority access to any new EU-level defense financing scheme. Large Ukraine aid could also be exempt from EU fiscal rules, or deducted from each nation’s contributions to the EU budget. Military effort: On military aid, replacing the US will be more challenging, but is possible in many domains. We show weapon-by-weapon that Europe’s industry has viable alternatives for almost all of the main US heavy weapon systems donated to Ukraine. Europe also accelerated ammunition production and this effort would now need to be intensified at greater speed and scale, especially for howitzer ammunition. Our data show that the biggest dependency from US-produced weapons is in (i) rocket artillery such as HIMARS (86% of weapons for Ukraine are US-produced systems), (ii) Howitzer ammunition (82% US produced), (iii) long-range anti-aircraft systems such as Patriots (70% US produced). In other domains, European weapons play a more important role, in particular regarding Howitzers and battle tanks. Among the heavy weapons, US HIMARS and Patriots are hardest to replace, as is the supply of ammunition for these systems. Also, US intelligence sharing and satellite imagery are decisive. To respond to these challenges: Europe needs to ramp up the production of essential weapons and artillery ammunition quickly and broadly. It is advantageous that European donors already transited away from donating from stocks to procuring new weapons for Ukraine from industry. These procurement efforts would need to be extended considerably by making firm medium- and long-term commitments to weapon-producing firms. For US weapons that are hard to replace, Europe could place orders in the US and beyond. Viable alternatives to HIMARS include the South Korean K239 Chunmoo and Israel’s PULS. In addition, Europe could heavily invest in the development and production of alternative systems such as SAMP/T. European countries could also increase drone production considerably, both by European producers, and, more importantly, by directly investing in the highly successful weapons industry of Ukraine. Finally, Europe would need to move fast to build alternative digital, satellite, and intelligence systems, including accelerated and expanded initiatives such as the satellite internet constellation IRIS2.
Topic:
Foreign Aid, Arms Trade, Fiscal Policy, Military Aid, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

248. How to Finance Europe’s Military Buildup? Lessons from History

Author:
Johannes Marzian and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Europe must rapidly increase its military spending, but how? We collect 150 years of data to study what governments in similar situations have done. How were past military buildups financed? What was the relative importance of debt financing, budget cuts, and taxes? Our main finding is that budget cuts, e.g. on social or foreign affairs, were rarely used to finance military buildups. Instead, governments typically relied on a mix of deficit financing and higher tax revenues. The larger the buildup, the more dominant debt financing has been. In line with history and theory, Germany and Europe should again rely on debt financing to quickly increase its defense spending and military capabilities. To deal with the added debt burden in the medium run, governments could increase taxes, reduce subsidies and tax avoidance, and freeze the growth of social spending. Fiscal rules must not stand in the way of the defence of Europe. A warning example is the case of the UK in the 1930s, which refrained from significantly ramping up military expenditure and instead pursued a policy of balanced budgets and appeasement. Consequently, the UK was ill-prepared when Nazi Germany launched its attack. Germany should not repeat the errors made by Britain in the 1930s and should invest heavily in defense so as to deter Russia. To achieve this, defense spending should be excluded from fiscal rules both in Germany and Europe. A less clear-cut alternative would be the creation of new debt funds, such as a European financing mechanism or another "Sondervermögen" in Germany.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Military Spending, Innovation, Geoeconomics, Fiscal Multipliers, Rearmament, and History
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Germany, and United States of America

249. How to Finance Europe’s Military Buildup? Lessons from History

Author:
Johannes Marzian and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Europe must rapidly increase its military spending, but how? We collect 150 years of data to study what governments in similar situations have done. How were past military buildups financed? What was the relative importance of debt financing, budget cuts, and taxes? Our main finding is that budget cuts, e.g. on social or foreign affairs, were rarely used to finance military buildups. Instead, governments typically relied on a mix of deficit financing and higher tax revenues. The larger the buildup, the more dominant debt financing has been. In line with history and theory, Germany and Europe should again rely on debt financing to quickly increase its defense spending and military capabilities. To deal with the added debt burden in the medium run, governments could increase taxes, reduce subsidies and tax avoidance, and freeze the growth of social spending. Fiscal rules must not stand in the way of the defence of Europe. A warning example is the case of the UK in the 1930s, which refrained from significantly ramping up military expenditure and instead pursued a policy of balanced budgets and appeasement. Consequently, the UK was ill-prepared when Nazi Germany launched its attack. Germany should not repeat the errors made by Britain in the 1930s and should invest heavily in defense so as to deter Russia. To achieve this, defense spending should be excluded from fiscal rules both in Germany and Europe. A less clear-cut alternative would be the creation of new debt funds, such as a European financing mechanism or another "Sondervermögen" in Germany.
Topic:
Military Spending
Political Geography:
Europe

250. Veterans of Russia’s war of aggression: Failed reintegration as a threat to the post-Putin era

Author:
Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the eventual demobilization of troops is set to pose the greatest veteran reintegration challenge in Russian society since World War II. Problems that have already emerged, such as crimes committed by veterans, will almost certainly increase. Russian society is unlikely to be welcoming towards veterans, either now or in the future, due to emerging inequalities. These inequalities stem from the high rewards paid for military service and the many other privileges granted to veterans and their relatives. Besides offering various benefits, the Kremlin has sought to prepare for this situation by appointing veterans to positions in regional administrations. However, efforts to maintain their respected status will fall short amid the unprecedented number of veterans. Moreover, those promoted to high-profile bureaucratic roles do not actually represent the broader veteran population. The simmering discontent among veterans is unlikely to pose a critical threat to Putin’s rule because the conditions for any kind of oppositional political organization are non-existent under the current regime. Instead, the veteran problem, the scale of which remains unclear, could become a significant factor in deepening the political crisis in post-Putin Russia.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Veterans, Armed Conflict, Demobilization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine