Content Type: Policy Brief - CIAO Search Results

401. The Lebanese Front: Assessing the Threat of All-Out War

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Indicators point to a heightened risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, with Israel leading efforts to restore security in its northern region for resident return and to deter Hezbollah from its borders. However, high war costs and US opposition could limit escalation.
Topic:: Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, Escalation, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and United States of America

402. The US Presidential Election: Unprecedentedly High Stakes

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: A combination of unexpected factors has led to the nomination of Kamala Harris as a replacement for Joe Biden, ushering the US elections into a new phase. This development could enhance the mechanism of political integration, but it might also lead to further exclusion, which could cause extremism and chaos, and weaken institutions.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Institutions, Donald Trump, Polarization, Presidential Elections, Kamala Harris, and Political Integration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

403. Turkish-Syrian Rapprochement: A Path Studded with Conflicting Aims

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Turkish President Erdoğan has expressed his desire to meet with Syrian President Assad after years of hostility. However, reconciliation is complex due to conflicting goals: Erdoğan seeks to legitimise arrangements securing his gains, while Assad demands a full Turkish withdrawal from Syrian affairs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Rapprochement, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

404. Israel and the Palestinian support fronts: Setting a new balance of deterrence

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Netanyahu insists on violating the rules of engagement established since 7 October 2023, relying on military solutions to achieve his political goals and Israel's strategic objectives. However, this can only be realised if the link between Palestinian resistance in Gaza and its external support fronts is severed.
Topic:: Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Armed Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Rules of Engagement
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon

405. Tit for tat: A turn in the Russian-Ukrainian war

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Ukrainian forces are expanding their incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast, a surprise not seen since World War II. The Russian response has been traditional and disorganised. If Russia fails to repel the advance, Ukraine could regain control over the conflict and set new negotiation terms.
Topic:: Security, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Incursion
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

406. Inside the ICBM Lobby: Special Interests or the Public Interest?

Author:: William D. Hartung
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: The nuclear weapons lobby is one of the most powerful forces in the military industrial complex. 1 The lobby’s current priority is advocating for the $315 billion Sentinel program to build a new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM). The program has faced controversy over both its utility and its cost, including a cost increase of a whopping 81 percent since 2020. The key champions of the Sentinel program are the Senators from Montana, North Dakota, Utah and Wyoming — states that are home to major ICBM bases or host major work on the Sentinel program. The group — known as the Senate ICBM Coalition — stresses the Sentinel’s purported role in strengthening nuclear deterrence as well as its creation of jobs in the states they represent. However, other members of Congress and ex–defense officials have raised urgent concerns about the Sentinel program, questioning the deterrence rationale that undergirds it and raising the alarm over the risk of accidental nuclear usage. Despite claims about Sentinel’s economic benefits, it remains unclear how many jobs the program will actually create. Weapons contractors — led by the Sentinel’s prime contractor, Northrop Grumman — play a central role in the ICBM lobby. Since 2018, members of the strategic forces subcommittees of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees have received $3.8 million from the 11 major Sentinel contractors. In total, ICBM contractors have donated $87 million to members of Congress in the last four election cycles alone. Contractors’ influence efforts are aided by the fact that senior government officials and members of Congress often secure jobs in the arms industry when they leave government; this provides them the opportunity to lobby former colleagues. In all, the 11 ICBM contractors have spent $226 million on lobbying in the past four election cycles. They currently employ 275 lobbyists, the vast majority of whom have passed through the revolving door from influential positions in government. The Sentinel program should be scrutinized as part of a larger reassessment of U.S. nuclear policy. The 2023 report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States endorses the program and calls for a comprehensive nuclear weapons build-up, including the possible placement of multiple nuclear warheads on ICBMs — a highly aggressive strategic posture that has not been in place since the Cold War. A high number of Commission members have ties to the nuclear weapons industry, including its co–chair Jon Kyl, who was once a lobbyist for Sentinel prime contractor Northrop Grumman. Congress must weigh the dubious benefits of the Commission’s proposals against the significant risks and costs its recommendations would entail if carried out.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Grand Strategy, Military-Industrial Complex, Militarism, and Sentinel Program
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, and United States of America

407. A Saudi Accord: Implications for Israel-Palestine Relations

Author:: Jeremy Pressman
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: The Biden administration and Israel’s Netanyahu government have both expressed support for the idea of a trilateral agreement in which Saudi Arabia would normalize diplomatic relations with Israel in exchange for the United States providing significant benefits to Saudi Arabia, such as security guarantees. A major selling point has been the claim that such an agreement could pave the way to settling the bitter Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has again erupted into a central threat to peace in the Middle East. However, given the experience of the Trump administration’s Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between four Arab states and Israel with the hope of moving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to a resolution, deep skepticism is warranted. The Abraham Accords did nothing to advance Palestinian-Israeli conflict resolution. Even before October 7, there was no hint of Israeli moderation in response to the accords. Since October 7, we have witnessed the largest Palestinian terrorist attack in Israeli history, followed by Israel’s destruction of Gaza and the killing of thousands of Palestinians in response. This conflict risks destabilizing the entire Middle East. This brief reviews the relevant history and incentives around the claimed relationship between Israeli-Palestinian conflict resolution and Israeli-Arab normalization agreements. It concludes that a U.S.-brokered normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia would be counterproductive to Israeli-Palestinian peace. Indeed, recent history suggests that Saudi Arabia and the United States would be wasting potential leverage for influencing Israeli policy and that the regional approach unhelpfully diverts attention away from the core of the Arab-Israeli conflict, Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory. Rather than pursue the already failed approach of seeking peace through the normalization of relations between Israel and third-party countries, a better route would include using U.S. leverage to directly drive Israeli-Palestinian peace. To do this, the U.S. should: 1.) Use its leverage through military aid to secure a permanent ceasefire in Gaza as a matter of urgency; 2.) Refocus on the core issues of Israeli-Palestinian peace, such as occupation, and demand genuine, substantive concessions from the Israeli government; and 3.) Fully integrate the use of U.S. leverage, such as arms sales and military assistance, into the pursuit of these goals.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, National Security, Hegemony, Conflict, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Administration
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, and UAE

408. Right-Sizing the Russian Threat to Europe

Author:: George Beebe, Mark Episkopos, and Anatol Lieven
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Western leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden, have frequently framed the invasion of Ukraine as the first step in a Russian plan of broader European conquest. However, a close examination of Russian intent and military capabilities shows this view is dangerously mistaken. Russia likely has neither the capability nor the intent to launch a war of aggression against NATO members — but the ongoing brinkmanship between Russia and the West still poses serious risks of military escalation that can only be defused by supplementing military deterrence with a diplomatic effort to address tensions. An analysis of Russian security thinking demonstrates that Putin’s stated views align with long-standing Russian fears about Western encroachment, given Russia’s lack of natural barriers to invasion. As Putin has come to view NATO as increasingly hostile to Russia, aggressive Russian action in defense of its claimed “sphere of influence” has become a factor in European security. However, contrary to many Western analyses, this does not mean that Russia views future wars of aggression against NATO member states as in its security interest. This does not imply naivete about the danger of Russian aggression, as reflected most recently in its illegal invasion of Ukraine. But it highlights the fundamental differences between Russia’s perceptions of Ukraine, which it has long regarded as both critical to its national security and integral to its history and culture, and its views of NATO countries, where the cost-benefit balance of aggression for Russia would be very different. Understanding Russian incentives also requires assessing Russia’s actual military capabilities compared to NATO. As frequently reiterated by NATO leadership, such an assessment shows that Russia is at a decisive conventional military disadvantage against the NATO alliance. While Russia would do damage in a conventional war with NATO, it would almost certainly suffer a devastating defeat in such a conflict absent nuclear escalation. NATO has a greater than three-to-one advantage over Russia in active-duty ground forces. NATO also has even greater advantages in the air and at sea. The alliance has a ten-to-one lead in military aircraft and a large qualitative edge as well, raising the probability of total air superiority. At sea, NATO would likely have the capacity to impose a naval blockade on Russian shipping, whose costs would dwarf current economic sanctions. While Russia has clear military superiority over individual NATO states, especially in the Baltics, it is extremely unlikely it could exercise this advantage without triggering a broader war with the entire NATO alliance. However, NATO’s powerful military deterrent alone cannot create stability in Europe. Paradoxically, an excessive reliance on military deterrence is likely to increase instability by inducing Russia to rely increasingly on its nuclear force as its primary basis for deterrence. Unlike conventional forces, Russia and NATO possess roughly the same amount of nuclear weapons. Washington must work to defuse this increasingly unstable dynamic by restoring diplomatic lines of communication between Russia and the West.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, NATO, National Security, Bilateral Relations, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and United States of America

409. Foreign Lobbying in the U.S.

Author:: Ben Freeman and Nick Cleveland-Stout
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: This brief takes a deep dive into a newly available tranche of data tracking foreign influence in the U.S. political process. The new data was released in early 2024 following reforms to the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), which made access to all foreign registrants’ political activities and campaign contributions publicly available. The brief unearths a complex web of foreign influence in the United States — with countries like Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Azerbaijan reaping the benefits of massive political influence campaigns. Influence operations today often follow a standard playbook: outside countries use firms based in Washington to lobby active members of Congress in pursuit of various aims — such as receiving U.S. weapons, currying American favor in regional conflicts, and more general reputation laundering. In 2022 and 2023, FARA registrants reported $14.3 million in political contributions and nearly 130,000 political activities. This relationship between lobbyists representing foreign countries and U.S. policymakers in itself is concerning, raising questions of whether politicians are really prioritizing the interests of their constituents, and of all Americans. To make matters worse, authoritarian regimes represent a majority of the most active countries — including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which placed first and fourth, respectively, among the countries most engaged in political activities under FARA from 2022–23. Greater FARA transparency is certainly a welcome development, but still more can be done to help Americans understand the who, what, and how of the foreign lobbying industry. For one, FARA registrants should be required to report a unique identifier for each office contacted, making it easier to determine lobbyists’ contacts. Greater language specificity in the descriptions of political activities is also needed. In addition, Congress could pass legislation that would introduce civil fines on the underreporting of political activities, although such a step should be accompanied by protections against the abuse of the FARA process.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, Conflict, and Military-Industrial Complex
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates

410. Implications of a Security Pact with Saudi Arabia

Author:: Paul R. Pillar
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: The Biden administration is seeking a deal in which Saudi Arabia would extend full diplomatic recognition to Israel in exchange for the United States providing Saudi Arabia a security guarantee, assistance in developing a nuclear program, and more unrestricted arms sales. Such an arrangement would further enmesh the United States in Middle Eastern disputes and intensify regional divisions. It would work against a favorable pattern of regional states working out their differences when the United States leaves them on their own — illustrated by the Chinese-brokered détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Besides being an authoritarian state lacking shared values with the United States, Saudi Arabia under Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has aggressively pursued regional dominance, most notably with its highly destructive war in Yemen. A U.S. security guarantee could motivate MBS to engage in even riskier behavior and draw the United States into conflicts in which it has no stake, such as the sectarian dispute that had led Saudi Arabia to break relations with Iran. An expanded Saudi nuclear program would have a military as well as an energy dimension, with MBS having openly expressed interest in nuclear weapons. Granting the Saudi demand for help in enriching uranium would be a blow to the global nonproliferation regime as well as a reversal of longstanding U.S. policy. A race in nuclear capabilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia may result. Meeting MBS’ demands would not curb Saudi relations with China, which are rooted in strong economic and other interests. The United States could compete more effectively with China in the region not by taking on additional security commitments but instead by emulating the Chinese in engaging all regional states in the interest of reducing tensions. Normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would not be a peace agreement, given the already extensive security cooperation between them. Even the gift of normalization with Riyadh would be unlikely to soften Israel’s hard-line positions regarding the war in Gaza and the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and instead would only reduce further Israeli motivation to resolve that conflict.
Topic:: Diplomacy, National Security, Conflict, Normalization, Joe Biden, and Military
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

411. Private Finance and the Quest to Remake Modern Warfare

Author:: Michael Brenes and William D. Hartung
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Official Washington is all in on promoting a new type of warfare based on military applications of AI and other emerging technologies. This determination was on full display last year when the Biden administration unveiled the “Replicator” initiative, an attempt to develop swarms of high-tech weapons systems at relatively low cost, and in numbers capable of overwhelming any potential adversary. But the history of so-called miracle weapons offers ample reasons to doubt Replicator’s supposedly transformative potential. Previous innovations, from the “electronic battlefield” in Vietnam to drone warfare in the Global War on Terrorism, did not, in fact, revolutionize war as we know it. Cutting-edge technology is no substitute for sound strategy or a realistic assessment of what military force can achieve. Unfortunately, so far, at least, these lessons from history have been no match for the boosterism of venture capital (VC) firms that pride themselves on disrupting industries and overturning conventional wisdom. While estimates of total VC funding of emerging military technology vary widely, it is clear that private investments in emerging weapons technologies are large and growing, driven by a handful of major Silicon Valley players, including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and Andreessen-Horowitz. Companies backed by these firms, including Palantir, Anduril, and SpaceX, have already landed major contracts for weapons systems that incorporate next-generation technology. These firms and their allies in the Pentagon and Congress are determined to move full speed ahead on the development and deployment of weapons based on AI and other technological innovations, despite many unanswered questions about the costs and risks involved. While the bulk of Pentagon funding still goes to the “big five” contractors — Lockheed Martin, RTX (formerly Raytheon), Boeing, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman — VC-backed startups aspire to become the future of military contracting, and they hope that AI and other emerging technologies will be their ticket. These startups may prove to be more nimble and innovative than the bloated, top-heavy firms that currently dominate the arms industry, but they should not be allowed to operate with impunity. Congress must establish ground rules that prevent military startups from exploiting the procurement process in ways that pad their bottom lines while providing flawed systems — outcomes that we have seen all too often from their traditional rivals. What is most important, the rush to profit from emerging military tech cannot be allowed to short-circuit the careful scrutiny and wide-ranging public debate that must precede any move toward a brave new world of autonomous warfare in which human intervention in the kill chain is significantly reduced, if not eliminated. This brief offers policymakers a framework for ensuring that unsupported promises to “reinvent” warfare don’t exacerbate the cycle of corruption and waste that has all too often plagued the Pentagon’s procurement process, to the detriment of our safety and security.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Finance, Grand Strategy, and Warfare
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

412. Rethinking the U.S.–Belarus Relationship

Author:: Mark Episkopos
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Belarus is commonly seen as a Russian outpost on NATO’s eastern flank, with its president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, cast as a categorical opponent of Western interests. This narrative became ascendant in the West after Russia’s full–scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, a fuller examination of Belarusian foreign policy under President Lukashenko reveals a more nuanced picture of a country that, despite its historic ties to Russia, has consistently demonstrated a willingness to engage with the West. Lukashenko has sought to pursue what he calls a “multi–vector foreign policy,” straddling the great powers to best safeguard Belarus’s national sovereignty and its interests. This multi–pronged approach has shifted decidedly in recent years, however, with Lukashenko drifting into the Russian camp, as evidenced by Minsk providing logistical support and safe passage to Russian troops in its war on Ukraine, and allowing Russian tactical nuclear weapons on Belarussian soil. But these policies did not occur in a vacuum. They were, rather, a direct result of American efforts to isolate Belarus through a maximum pressure campaign which began in the aftermath of the 2020 re–election of Lukashenko. Western policies aimed at isolating Minsk have had the counterproductive effect of pushing Lukashenko closer to Moscow and Beijing, in an effort to counteract what he sees as a Western program of driving regime change in Belarus. Western governments, particularly Washington, should recognize that maximum pressure will backfire by pushing Belarus closer to Moscow. An alternative strategy based on resetting relations with Belarus and enabling the return of Lukashenko’s multi–vector foreign policy holds the promise of preventing the further integration of Belarus and Russia and possibly even reversing some of Putin’s moves to pull Belarus into the Russian orbit. To execute this strategy, the United States should: Explicitly disavow regime change and the training of anti–Lukashenko dissidents as U.S. policy goals in direct talks with Belarussian officials, conditioned on Belarussian assurance that it will not use its territory as a staging ground for attacks on NATO Establish a piecemeal approach for sanctions relief with Belarus as progress is made toward resetting relations Pursue bilateral cooperation with Belarus, including the resumption of energy trade, American investment, and other cultural arrangements. Pursuing the soft reset prescribed in this paper will not be easy, but the alternatives would leave the United States in a weaker strategic position by needlessly heightening Minsk’s dependence on its Russian neighbor. Steps toward reaching a new understanding with Belarus can instead bolster eastern European stability and enhance NATO’s eastern deterrent posture.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eastern Europe, Belarus, and United States of America

413. Subsidizing the Military-Industrial Complex: A Review of the Secretary of Defense Executive Fellows (SDEF) Program

Author:: Brett Heinz and Ben Freeman
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: For nearly 30 years, an obscure Department of Defense (DoD) program has given Pentagon contractors a taxpayer-subsidized opportunity to influence U.S. military policy, creating massive conflicts of interest — yet little scrutiny. This research brief offers a first of its kind look at the DoD’s Secretary of Defense Executive Fellows (SDEF) program, which sends U.S. military officers to work at major corporations for a year, and then return and provide recommendations to the DoD for how it might improve. Military contractors benefit disproportionately from the SDEF program. Twenty-nine percent of all SDEF fellows have gone to the nation’s top 50 government contractors, with 15 percent going to the “big five” military contractors alone. None of the 317 fellows in the program’s history has ever served at a public sector institution. Decades of SDEF recommendations have consistently focused on reforms that would both benefit corporations and bolster their influence over the DoD, including calls for a greater share of the agency’s budget to be given to military contractors, reduced oversight, greater private outsourcing of agency responsibilites, and the loosening of international arms trade regulations. SDEF also keeps the revolving door between public service and private profit spinning. Forty-three percent of SDEF fellows went on to work for a government contractor at some point in their post-military career. In consistently failing to distinguish between what’s best for corporate executives and what’s best for the American people, the SDEF program represents a dangerous embrace of the military-industrial complex. Whereas Dwight D. Eisenhower warned against the “conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry” whose “total influence” can be seen in “every office of the Federal Government,” the SDEF program explicitly advocates for it. SDEF has become a reliable method for corporations to disguise self–interested policy aspirations as helpful recommendations for DoD. If this program is to continue, DoD must act forcefully to address and minimize the unsettling conflicts of interest embedded within SDEF by: Enforcing a “one defense contractor per year” rule; Barring fellows from working in “government relations” roles; Exploring post–employment restrictions for former fellows; Re–balancing orientations away from undue corporate influence and political bias; Rationalizing program size.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military-Industrial Complex, and Militarism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

414. The U.S.–Japan–South Korea Trilateral Partnership: Pursuing Regional Stability and Avoiding Military Escalation

Author:: James Park and Mike M. Mochizuki
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: A trilateral partnership is emerging in northeast Asia. Building off last August’s Camp David summit between the countries’ leaders, the United States, Japan, and South Korea are now engaging militarily in an unprecedented fashion, shaping an alignment aimed to counter North Korea and China. Efforts to discourage North Korean and Chinese aggression are necessary, particularly considering Japan and South Korea’s physical proximity to the two countries. But the emerging trilateral arrangement between the United States, Japan, and South Korea could backfire and increase the risk of conflict if it focuses exclusively on military deterrence. The United States, Japan, and South Korea should instead pursue a more balanced arrangement — one that promotes stability on the Korean peninsula, credibly reaffirms long standing policy over the Taiwan issue, and disincentivizes China from pursuing its own trilateral military partnership with North Korea and Russia. To deter North Korea, the United States, South Korea, and Japan are relying on strike capabilities and military coordination to retaliate against North Korean aggression. This approach, however, will likely induce North Korea to increase its nuclear weapons and upgrade its missile capabilities. With this in mind, the three countries should roll back policy rhetoric and joint military exercises that might further provoke rather than deter North Korea, especially anything geared towards regime destruction. At the same time, the United States, Japan, and South Korea have in recent years become more reluctant to endorse the original understandings they each reached with China about Taiwan. For the sake of reassurance, the three countries together should clearly confirm in official statements their One China policies and declare that they oppose unilateral changes to the status quo by any side, do not support Taiwan independence, and will accept any resolution of the Taiwan issue (including unification) achieved by peaceful and non–coercive means. Each country’s respective relationship with Taiwan should also remain strictly unofficial. Another concerning aspect associated with this trilateral is the possibility of a corresponding alliance formation of Russia, China, and North Korea. To disincentivize this development, the United States, Japan, and South Korea should leverage their blossoming relationship to assuage Chinese fears of strategic containment, particularly through economic and diplomatic engagement that rejects the creation of a broadly exclusionary bloc in the region.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Strategic Competition, Escalation, Regional Security, Great Powers, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

415. Stabilizing the Growing Taiwan Crisis: New Messaging and Understandings are Urgently Needed

Author:: Michael D. Swaine
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: The U.S.–China relationship appears to have stabilized since the November 2023 meeting between U.S. president Joe Biden and China’s president Xi Jinping in San Francisco. The reality, however, is that the features and trends pushing both countries toward a confrontation over Taiwan persist, fueling a dangerous, interactive dynamic that could quickly overcome any diplomatic thaw between the world’s foremost powers. These underlying forces — increased levels of domestic threat inflation in both the United States and China, the worst–casing of the other side’s motives and intentions, and the resulting erosion in the confidence of the original understanding over Taiwan reached in the 1970s — threaten to push Beijing and Washington into a crisis over Taiwan that both sides say they want to avoid. To defuse this worrying dynamic, both the United States and China must reaffirm long standing policy on Taiwan, while also undertaking a set of specific actions to further stabilize the relationship between the two countries. The Biden administration should explicitly reject extreme rhetoric towards China and deviations from longstanding policy on Taiwan, such as the framing of Sino–American competition as a titanic struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, and the contention that an independent Taiwan is strategically crucial to overall Asian security. The administration can further inject stability into U.S.–China interactions over Taiwan by re–affirming and clarifying the One China policy through a series of statements, including: The United States opposes any Chinese effort to coerce Taiwan or compel unification through force. However, the United States would accept any resolution of the cross–Strait issue that is reached without coercion and that is endorsed by the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. The United States recognizes that the defense of Taiwan is primarily the responsibility of the people of Taiwan. Relatedly, and in accordance with the U.S.–China normalization agreement, Washington is committed to maintaining only unofficial relations with Taiwan and has no desire to alter this commitment. The United States Government reiterates that it has no intention of infringing on Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity, or interfering in China’s internal affairs, or pursuing a policy of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan. These statements should be made in combination with actions that bolster cooperative engagement with China, such as the initiation of a combined civilian and military Track 1.5 dialogue with Beijing. We believe that this type of reassurance would lead to corresponding commitments from China that would improve stability in the Taiwan Strait, such as reductions in provocative military exercises and potentially high level Chinese declarations that reject coercive measures towards Taiwan and a specific timeline for reunification. The recent improvements to the Sino–American relationship shouldn’t go to waste. The United States and China should go beyond the mere appearance of stabilization and revitalize the original understanding over Taiwan. Otherwise, they risk a continuous spiral towards full–scale conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Realism, Regional Stability, and Restraint
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

416. Ukraine, Gaza, and the International Order

Author:: Faisal Devji
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: The ongoing crises in Ukraine and Gaza show the urgent need for a new internationalism that comes to grips with the increasing independence of middle and smaller powers around the world. Such a vision must reject the effort to re-impose a failed framework of unilateral U.S. primacy, or an effort to shoehorn multiplying regionally specific conflicts into an obsolete model of “great power competition” that recalls the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. In both Ukraine and the Middle East, the United States has been unable to impose its will either militarily or diplomatically. Smaller nations have successfully defied American–backed military force. Even more concerning, a significant share of the global community has failed to follow the U.S. diplomatic lead and support the U.S. interpretation of international norms. But opposition to the United States has not been supported by a superpower peer competitor to the United States, along the lines of a Cold War model. The current emerging world order is instead characterized by “regionalization,” a situation where middle and even small powers around the world feel free to circumvent or even defy U.S. interpretations of global norms based on more local interests and regional security concerns. The stage was set for the current situation by the U.S. attempt to assert unilateral power during the War on Terror in ways that appeared to give the United States alone a de facto exemption from global norms and institutions. These actions reduced the legitimacy of the post–World War Two international order that the United States had helped to create, and led many in the international community to seek alternatives to a system that seemed to grant the United States almost arbitrary power to define the rules. The U.S. foreign policy establishment must come to grips with the newly deglobalized and regionalized world order. A failure to do so poses a grave threat to U.S. power and influence, as relationships with key emerging powers such as India, or even traditional U.S. allies in Europe and Asia are not immune from the kind of de–globalizing and regionalizing forces seen in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Topic:: Cold War, International Law, National Security, Hegemony, Grand Strategy, Armed Conflict, International Order, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Eastern Europe, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

417. Paths to Crisis and Conflict Over Taiwan

Author:: Michael D. Swaine and James Park
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Taiwan is the most likely flashpoint for a U.S.–China conflict, unmatched in its combustible mix of conflicting interests, high stakes, and eroding trust and assurances. A full–blown war over Taiwan has become a startling possibility. Suspicion, threat inflation, zero–sum framing, and worst–casing are increasingly dominant factors in U.S.–China interactions over Taiwan, driven by preconceived ideas of the other’s intentions based on history and ideology, and domestic pressures in each country to prioritize military deterrence and even aggression. Amidst this emerging threat of direct conflict, numerous scholars, experts, and military strategists have focused on how to discourage China from invading Taiwan through military force alone — warfighting perspectives that typically share glaring and mutually reinforcing faults that, if overlooked, may only help to pave the path toward conflict. Analysts’ emphasis on military deterrence tends to obscure the utmost importance of political reassurances to avert conflict, particularly the United States reaffirming and recommitting to its original understanding of the One China Policy; this fixation on the military dimension feeds into the destabilization of the Taiwan issue, brought about by heightened suspicions of the other side’s intentions. Policymakers and pundits, in turn, tend to underestimate the possibility of inadvertent escalation, driven by an environment of distrust, pressure in Washington and Beijing to appear tough on the other, and a lack of comprehensive crisis management mechanisms. By examining the common analytical blindspots regarding a conflict over Taiwan, this report sheds new light on how the political and social dynamics fueling mutual hostility between Beijing and Washington could play a much more decisive role in a future crisis over Taiwan, rather than factors that earn far more attention, such as calculations about military capability and resolve. Averting a destructive crisis will require the United States and China to build off recent diplomatic progress to restore a deeper mutual understanding concerning Taiwan through policies and actions including: Mutual recognition of the interactive nature of the growing crisis over Taiwan, to which Beijing, Washington, and Taipei contribute. A clearer, more credible U.S. commitment to its successful, long–standing stance on Taiwan: the One China Policy and strategic ambiguity. Continued U.S. rejection of both unilateral Taiwan independence and any unambiguous commitment to Taiwan’s defense. A credible Chinese affirmation of its continued commitment to peaceful unification without any specific deadline. The development of a broad–based crisis communication mechanism that includes both military and civilian dialogue.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Crisis Management, Joe Biden, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

418. Responsibly Demilitarizing U.S.–Mexico Bilateral Security Relations

Author:: Aileen Teague
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: These are trying times for U.S.–Mexico relations. As America’s opioid epidemic reaches unprecedented proportions, U.S. politicians have begun to advocate unilateral military action against Mexican drug cartels in sovereign Mexican territory. This approach would not only do extraordinary damage to one of America’s most vital international relationships, but also carry a real risk of importing violence to the United States. The calls for military action have infuriated Mexico’s leaders, who in turn criticize America’s broken and inhumane border security and Washington’s inability to curb the seemingly insatiable demand for drugs in the United States. The basis for the neighboring nations’ security cooperation, the 2008 Mérida Initiative, seems to have failed, largely failing to stem the tide of violence and instability in Mexico, or to halt the cross border flow of migrants, guns, and drugs. The result is poor regional security and a deteriorating bilateral relationship. There is reason to hope that the Plan Mérida’s replacement, the U.S.–Mexico Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health, and Safe Communities, will strengthen bilateral cooperation and help put security relations on a path to demilitarization. However, since the State Department announced the framework in 2021, little progress has been made in developing the shape and contents of this program. The continued failure to articulate how the Bicentennial Framework will represent a meaningful break from failed policies in the past suggests militarized enforcement may still dominate security relations for years to come. This status quo poses grave risks to both countries. But through the Bicentennial Framework, U.S. policymakers have the potential to make meaningful changes in bilateral security relations by: Rejecting U.S. unilateralist measures against Mexico Developing more robust policies to halt U.S. arms flow to Mexico Reducing the military’s role in enforcement functions and redirecting military entities toward civil action and development Supporting Mexico–led development programs By decreasing the scope of militarization in regional security policies through an appropriately designed Bicentennial Framework, the United States and Mexico can achieve healthier and more balanced relations, and eliminate the risk of a worst-case scenario: unilateral U.S. military intervention next door.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Global South, Borders, Restraint, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, Global Focus, and United States of America

419. What if? The Effects of a Hard Decoupling from China on the German Economy

Author:: Julian Baqaee, Julian Hinz, Benjamin Moll, Moritz Schularick, Feodora A. Teti, Joschka Wanner, and Sihwan Yang
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: How would the German economy cope with a hard economic decoupling from China? The authors study a scenario where the global economy fragments into three distinct blocs: the G7 economies and their allies, China and her allies, as well as neutral countries. German trade with China would have to be entirely rerouted to countries within the "Western" block and neutral countries. The authors quantify the costs of such a worst-case hard decoupling using the (Baqaee and Farhi 2021) multi-sector model of the world economy. The key finding is that a total cut-off of trade relations with China would have severe but not devastating effects on the German economy. The welfare loss for Germany (relative to a no-cut-off baseline) would be around 5 percent of Gross National Expenditure (GNE) over the first few months and around 4 percent over the first year, plus additional short run costs due to business-cycle amplification effects. In the medium and long run, the costs would fall to a permanent loss in the 1–2 percent range. Less extreme decoupling or gradual de-risking scenarios (“small yard, high fence") would incur smaller costs. The single most influential assumption relates to the “trade elasticity,", i.e., the ease and speed with which trade can be reorganized away from China to neutral countries and within the “Western” block. The authors´ findings, in particular the critical dependence of economic costs on the time horizon over which adjustments take place, provide some rationale for embarking on a gradual de-risking trajectory to avoid a costly and politically contentious hard decoupling dictated by geopolitical events.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Geoeconomics, Decoupling, and De-Risking
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Germany

420. Paying Off Populism: EU-Regionalpolitik verringert Unterstützung populistischer Parteien

Author:: Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: How to break the populist wave? With the elections to the European Parliament ahead, and the Presidential Elections in the US looming, this question bothers policymakers in many Western democracies. Our study shows that regional policies effectively decrease populist support. Specifically, EU Regional Policy investing into the development of lagging-behind regions decreases the vote share obtained by right-fringe populist parties by 15–20 percent. Moreover, regional policy investments increase trust in democratic institutions, and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:: Political Economy, European Union, Populism, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

421. Foul Play? On the Scale and Scope of Industrial Subsidies in China

Author:: Frank Bickenbach, Dirk Dohse, Rolf Langhammer, and Wan-Hsin Liu
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: China makes extensive use of subsidies in order to take a leading role on the global markets in the green technology sectors of electric vehicles, wind turbines and railway rolling stock. According to DiPippo et al. (2022) and recent OECD studies, the industrial subsidies in China are at least three to four times or even up to nine times higher than in the major EU and OECD countries. According to a very conservative estimate, industrial subsidies in China amounted to around EUR 221 billion or 1.73% of Chinese GDP in 2019. According to recent data of 2022, direct government subsidies for some of the dominant Chinese manufacturers of green technology products had also increased significantly - the electric car manufacturer BYD alone received EUR 2.1 billion. The authors point out that Chinese companies are benefiting from further support measures, including subsidized inputs, preferential access to critical raw materials, forced technology transfers, the strategic use of public procurement and the preferential treatment of domestic firms in administrative procedures. The authors recommend the EU to use its anti-subsidy proceeding against BEV imports from China to enter into negotiations with the Chinese government and persuade it to abolish public support measures that are particularly harmful to the EU.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Business, Renewable Energy, Industry, Subsidies, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:: China and Europe

422. African Sovereign Defaults and the Common Framework: Divergent Chinese Interests Grant Western Countries a “Consumer Surplus”

Author:: Eckhardt Bode
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • China has become a major player in sovereign lending towards Africa during the past two decades but has recently been faced with increasing defaults. A new African debt crisis is looming. • Differences in the motives of sovereign lending between China and Western creditor countries contribute to preventing effective global sovereign debt management under the “Common Framework for Debt Treatment” in this looming African debt crisis. Chi-nese lending during the past two decades was motivated primarily by its own economic interests while most of the Western countries’ lending appears to be at odds with their self-interests but is not yet well-understood. • Debt settlements under the Common Framework that involve China are less generous than past settlements with the Paris Club alone. This is an obstacle to a rapid and sus-tainable economic recovery of financially distressed African countries. • Western countries derive a kind of “consumer surplus” from the agreements under the Common Framework because they are prepared to make greater concessions than Chi-na. They could transfer this hypothetical surplus as additional (conditional) Official De-velopment Assistance to the defaulted African countries to alleviate social hardship.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Markets, Lending, Economic Crisis, Sovereign Debt, Consumer Behavior, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa and China

423. Build Carbon Removal Reserve to Secure Future of EU Emissions Trading

Author:: Wilfried Rickels, Mathias Fridahl, Roland Rothenstein, and Felix Schenuit
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • A carbon central bank (CCB) that translates carbon removals into allowances would transform the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) from a fiat allowance to a gold standard system, ensuring unchanged net emissions on the path to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets. • Meeting such expectations would require a CCB with a clear commitment to a net-zero GHG target, but also with the capacity to manage the market on the path to that target. • This requires a strong institutional framework, which could be achieved by integrating the CCB into the European Central Bank (ECB), building on its reputation and capacity. • Given the long lead time to set up such an institution, the European Commission should already take the first steps to fulfil the other requirement, namely building up a large carbon removal certificate (CRC) reserve, which would provide the CCB with the credibility to stabilize the market in the future. • To fill the CRC reserve, the EU should emulate the US approach by immediately initiating resultbased carbon removal procurement as a first key step of a sequential approach to integrated carbon removal into climate policy. • This could be achieved by developing a centralized procurement program, supporting existing procurement programs, such as Sweden’s or Denmark’s, and incentivizing additional EU member states to initiate procurement. • An important prerequisite for this is the ability to bank CRCs that are not yet eligible for compliance with near-term EU climate targets and use them in later crediting periods.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero, and Carbon Central Bank
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

424. EU-China Trade Relations: Where Do We Stand, Where Should We Go?

Author:: Alexander Sandkamp
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, China’s share in European trade has fallen continuously. Nevertheless, the country remains the EU’s largest source of imports (20.5 percent in 2023) and its third largest export destination (8.7 percent). • This apparent dominance of China is put into perspective when incorporating intra-EU trade. For example, Germany – Europe’s largest economy – sent 6.1 percent of its ex-ports to China, but 55 percent to EU members states. For imports, the Chinese and Euro-pean shares are 11.5 percent and 52.7 percent, respectively. • Decoupling the EU from China (i.e. almost eliminating bilateral trade) would permanent-ly reduce European real income by 0.8 percent in the long-run. In terms of gross domes-tic product in 2023, the EU would forego 136 billion EUR of value added every year. Short-term effects are likely to be stronger. • China dominates global production of important products such as laptops and mobile phones as well as raw materials including Germanium and Gallium that are critical for the green energy transition. A trade disruption might thus both delay the energy transi-tion and increase its costs. • To reduce specific dependencies, the EU should intensify its efforts to diversify procure-ment by increasing the attractiveness of alternative suppliers. Finding the courage to move forward in the negotiation of free trade agreements with potential strategic part-ners such as Australia and the Mercosur countries would strengthen the EU’s geopolitical position and increase prosperity among partners.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Geoeconomics, and Decoupling
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Germany

425. EU-NATO relations in a new threat environment: Significant complementarity but a lack of strategic cooperation

Author:: Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The relationship between the EU and NATO has traditionally been characterised by a degree of ambiguity and competition but also by attempts at coordination and cooperation. In the context of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the EU and NATO have played crucial and mutually complementary roles, taking advantage of their respective strengths. However, there are also many areas in which their efforts overlap and closer cooperation would be necessary. Thus far, only small steps in this direction have been taken. Ideally, the EU and NATO would work together to develop a more strategic outlook on issues such as developing Europe’s military capabilities, strengthening the security and defence of membership aspirants as well as managing crises beyond EU and NATO territory. Formal relations between the EU and NATO remain complicated. However, there are ways to work around the existing obstacles to EU-NATO cooperation, not least in the capitals of EU and NATO member states.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:: Europe

426. Nuclear arms control policies and safety in artificial intelligence: Transferable lessons or false equivalence?

Author:: Eoin Micheál McNamara
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Multiple nuclear arms control treaties have collapsed in recent years, but analogies associated with them have returned as possible inspiration to manage risks stemming from artificial intelligence (AI) advancement. Some welcome nuclear arms control analogies as an important aid to understanding strategic competition in AI, while others see them as an irrelevant distraction, weakening the focus on new frameworks to manage AI’s unique and unprecedented aspects. The focus of this debate is sometimes too narrow or overly selective when a wider examination of arms control geopolitics can identify both irrelevant and valuable parallels to assist global security governance for AI. Great power leaders frequently equate AI advancement with arms racing, reasoning that powers lagging behind will soon see their great power status weakened. This logic serves to intensify competition, risking a spiral into more unsafe AI practices. The global norm institutionalization that established nuclear taboos can also stigmatize unethical AI practices. Emphasizing reciprocal risk reduction offers pragmatic starting points for great power management of AI safety. This research is part of the Reignite Multilateralism via Technology (REMIT) project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 101094228.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Cybersecurity, Economic Policy, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

427. Japan’s multi-layered security strategy: Deterrence, coalition-building and economic security

Author:: Bart Gaens
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: At the end of 2022, Japan announced substantial changes to its defence posture with the publication of a new National Security Strategy, a National Defence Strategy, and a Defence Buildup Programme. These included a boosted defence budget and the addition of deterrence through counterstrike capabilities. The policy shift is partly driven by the war in Ukraine, even if it can also be seen in the light of a much longer process of incremental changes. Furthermore, the new defence policy should be viewed in a broader context as part of Japan’s evolving multi-layered security strategy. In addition to deterrence, other central pillars of this multi-layered strategy include coalition-building through alignment, Official Security Assistance for developing countries, a normatively pragmatic engagement with the Global South, and economic security. Japan’s enhanced capabilities and increasingly proactive stance on coalition-building and alignment policy offer opportunities for cooperation, including with the EU and NATO. However, a more robust defence posture is offset by domestic challenges, including institutionalized self-imposed restrictions, political opposition, public opinion, economic and fiscal factors, and a greying population.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Aging, Deterrence, Economic Security, and Coalition
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

428. China as the second nuclear peer of the United States: Implications for deterrence in Europe

Author:: Jyri Lavikainen
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: China’s nuclear build-up will make it a nuclear peer adversary of the United States in the 2030s. The US will have to deter both Russia and China, as well as other regional adversaries, with forces geared to engage in one major war at a time. If two major wars occur either simultaneously or sequentially, US military capability will be put under great stress. In the event of a second war, the US may find itself in a situation of conventional military inferiority, which it might have to compensate for with greater reliance on nuclear weapons. Since the US remains the ultimate guarantor of European security, its deterrence challenges elsewhere affect European security as well. Thus, even the possibility of war in the Indo-Pacific is a European security issue. European NATO allies can help mitigate the two-peer problem by permanently taking on a greater share of the burden of Europe’s conventional defence. At the same time, the effectiveness of NATO’s nuclear capability must be enhanced. A strategic defeat for Russia in the war in Ukraine would postpone Russia’s ability to pose a military threat to Europe. Ukraine’s NATO membership would further serve to reduce the threat of another major war in Europe.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

429. Foreign investments, de-risking and the EU’s green transition: Mining critical minerals in Finland

Author:: Elina Sinkkonen and Marco Siddi
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The EU is highly dependent on imports of critical and strategic raw materials, both at the extraction and the processing stages. Many of the key supply chains for these materials are dominated by China. In addition, the EU is also dependent on China for many green technologies, such as battery production. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act (2023) sets concrete targets for reducing dependencies in the green transition by 2030. Considering both the level of existing dependencies in critical and strategic raw materials and the fact that the Act does not provide any new funding instruments, the feasibility of reaching the set targets is questionable. The Finnish mining sector presents an interesting case that illustrates the scarcity of domestic financing. Most metal ore mines in Finland are owned by foreign companies, and similar trends apply to the refining and recycling of materials. If the EU wishes to mitigate the risks of becoming dependent on authoritarian countries, foreign investments in sectors relevant to the green transition should be subject to investment screening. For example, the Finnish Act on the Screening of Foreign Corporate Acquisitions does not cover greenfield investments such as investments in building battery factories.
Topic:: European Union, Mining, Supply Chains, Green Transition, Raw Materials, Critical Raw Materials (CRM), and De-Risking
Political Geography:: Europe and Finland

430. EU support for Ukraine: The paradox of insufficient assistance

Author:: Tyyne Karjalainen
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Since Russia started its aggression against Ukraine in 2014, EU member states have lacked the political will to firmly contest Russia’s imperialism in the shared neighbourhood. This was concretized in the rejection of Ukraine’s EU path and the failure to build Ukraine’s military capabilities before 2022. The EU’s response to Russia’s full-scale invasion has been more successful than expected considering its limited capabilities and some past failures of international security assistance. The West is, however, failing to equip Ukraine to win the war. This paradox of insufficient aid leaves Ukraine in limbo, whereby it is enabled to continue the defence effort but without adequate means to succeed. In theory, the EU backs Ukraine’s strategy of non-negotiation with Russia, but the limited military support is pushing Kyiv towards peace talks. EU capitals continue to disagree over the extent to which Russia’s imperialist policies need to be suppressed, and whether small concessions could help to end the war in Europe. Even in the scenario where Ukraine emerges from the war as a truly sovereign state, the risk of future Russian interference, combined with Ukraine’s particular vulnerabilities and the likely challenges of post-war reconstruction, cast a shadow over its immediate future.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

431. India’s critical minerals strategy: Geopolitical imperatives and energy transition goals

Author:: Dhanasree Jayaram and Ramu C. M.
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: India ranks fourth in the world in terms of installed renewable energy capacity, with goals to further increase non-fossil fuel-based electric power capacity to 50% by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2070. However, its goals are dependent on a reliable and sustainable supply of critical minerals. Geopolitically, India’s critical minerals strategy is influenced by international dynamics and its systemic rivalry with China. India is therefore cooperating and collaborating with the United States, Australia, the European Union, Argentina, Chile, the Quad, the G20, and other actors to secure reliable supply chains for critical minerals. India is implementing regulatory and structural reforms to boost domestic production by increasing private investment and auctioning critical mineral blocks. At the same time, it requires immense financial and technological investment to advance this domestic strategy. To mitigate the risks associated with supply chain disruptions, India is set to strengthen its complementary two-pronged approach of boosting domestic production and pursuing international partnerships.
Topic:: Security, Geopolitics, Supply Chains, Energy, Green Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

432. The rise of the far right in the European Union: Gaining power not through a sweeping victory, but through creeping normalisation

Author:: Nils Fabian Müller
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: In the 2024 EU elections, far-right parties are expected to win more seats in the European Parliament than ever before. At the national level, too, far-right parties are entering more and more EU governments. Despite these gains, the centre-right European People’s Party, rather than the far right, is likely to play the central role in the EU institutions in the next legislature. The EU’s consensus-based system is a safeguard against the sudden seizure of power by far-right parties. But once they have achieved a certain position, the same system makes it difficult for others to form majorities without them. The EU is therefore facing not a sweeping but a creeping gain in far-right power, as centrist political parties become more open to cooperation, and far-right positions are slowly normalised in political discourse. Paradoxically, the very mechanisms that are supposed to protect national sovereignty (such as unanimity requirements in the Council) are the ones most likely to allow far-right parties to influence EU policy, even if they represent only a minority of EU citizens.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, Far Right, and European Parliament
Political Geography:: Europe

433. Russia’s presidential election: Signalling repression and demobilizing opposition

Author:: Margarita Zavadskaya
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Autocrats such as Vladimir Putin use elections strategically to demonstrate their capability to secure the necessary votes. This primarily benefits the regime’s inner circle and rent-seeking elites who rely on Putin’s presidency for their wealth. Although a notable proportion of the Russian population regards the election and Putin’s leadership as legitimate, their support for Russia’s military actions in Ukraine is waning. Only a slim majority backs the continuation of the conflict. Despite the oppressive political environment, opposition initiatives such as “Noon against Putin” manifest ongoing resistance. These actions were reflected in vote tallies abroad, where support for Putin was dramatically lower than in Russia. The post-election period is likely to see the persistence of Russia’s current domestic and foreign policies, with the potential for increased societal and economic tensions. The declining support for the war could further complicate the regime’s efforts to maintain a unified front. This could potentially impact Russia’s global standing and internal stability.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

434. The Joint Expeditionary Force in Northern Europe: Towards a more integrated security architecture?

Author:: Antti Pihlajamaa
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The Joint Expeditionary Force – a UK-led defence cooperation format of ten European countries – has gained political momentum since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since the late 2010s, the JEF has shifted its focus towards hybrid issues, increasingly in Northern Europe. While its role in the hybrid sphere is potentially fruitful, the JEF should be wary of taking on too wide a range of tasks. The JEF’s role as a “sub-threshold” actor could complement NATO’s collective defence efforts below Article 5. Hence, the JEF should be more coherently integrated into the Northern European security architecture. Obstacles to JEF-NATO integration have now been removed, as all JEF nations are also members of the alliance. A more explicit division of labour between the JEF and NATO would help Northern European countries to handle the current security environment comprehensively. Such a security architecture, covering all dimensions of the conflict spectrum, would be particularly beneficial for Finland, which shares a long common border with Russia.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Security, Defense Cooperation, and Joint Expeditionary Force
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Finland, and Baltic States

435. Indonesia’s growing clout: Domestic, regional, and global drivers

Author:: Bart Gaens and Olli Ruohomäki
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: While Indonesia still stands out as one of the stronger democracies in Southeast Asia, its democratic credentials remain flawed. Nevertheless, public support for the current administration has remained high thanks to sustained economic growth, welfare measures and large infrastructure projects. Indonesia has continued to bolster its international status through ASEAN, even if its position is one among equals. Within the organization, Jakarta has aimed to play the role of democracy promoter and bridge-builder. While China’s influence in the country has grown, Indonesia has sought a middle ground within the great-power competition, also pursuing partnerships with European countries, Japan, Russia, and the Gulf countries in order to diversify its political and economic relations. This offers opportunities for the EU. However, Europe’s declining image in Indonesia, colonial history and perceived double standards are obstacles to strengthening EU-Indonesia relations. Challenges remain for Indonesia in its quest to become a global player. The country will need to contribute solutions to both regional and global issues, and its hedging game and strategic autonomy in foreign-policy choices may become complicated due to increasing global expectations and responsibilities.
Topic:: Democracy, Geopolitics, Economic Policy, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

436. China’s approach to AI standardisation: State-guided but enterprise-led

Author:: Junhua Zhu
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: AI standardisation is a major battleground in the international AI race, in which states compete against each other for standard-setting power. China sees AI standardisation as a sector in which it could become a norm-maker rather than a norm-taker. The global landscape of AI standardisation is undergoing a phase of reconstruction. The US and China are discussing new bilateral standardisation frameworks, while the significance of pre-existing multilateral standardisation frameworks is declining. The Chinese approach to AI standardisation is found to be heavily reliant on the corporate sector, following an enterprise-led and state-guided pattern. The state cooperates closely with the private sector in a community of practice, acting as a catalyst in the early stage, a supporter in the mid-stage, and a supervisor in the later stage of the AI standardisation process. Enhancing a contextualised understanding of the fast-changing landscape of AI standardisation in China is critical for European policymakers to safeguard Europe’s competitiveness, preserve European values, and engage in dialogue on global AI governance.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Economic Policy, Artificial Intelligence, and Standardization
Political Geography:: China and Asia

437. EU migration policy and calls for the externalisation of asylum: Intensifying partnerships, exploring new models

Author:: Saila Heinikoski
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: After years of negotiations, the EU has adopted the Pact on Migration and Asylum, and recently concluded migration partnerships with Tunisia, Mauritania and Egypt. While the Pact addresses internal migration rules within the Union, in practice the focus seems to be shifting towards the external dimension of migration. The security situation in Europe reinforces the need to build stronger partnerships. The aim is not to push the countries from which people most often migrate to Europe into partnerships with countries that may ally themselves against Europe, for example by instrumentalising migration. Even before the European Parliament elections, EU member states and political groups started to push the idea of transferring the asylum procedure to third countries. This was notably stated in a letter sent to the Commission in May 2024, signed by 15 member states. Examples of the externalisation of asylum procedures include the outsourced Rwanda model eventually abandoned by the UK, the offshoring model being implemented in Albania by Italy, and the proposed return hub model, whereby rejected asylum-seekers would be transferred to a third country if they cannot be directly returned to their countries of origin.
Topic:: European Union, Partnerships, Refugees, Asylum, Migration Policy, and Externalization
Political Geography:: Europe

438. Russia’s wartime ideology: Radicalization, rent-seeking and securing the dictator

Author:: Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Anti-Western propaganda and the indoctrination of citizens, especially young people, have gradually intensified since the early days of Putin’s rule. However, their radicalization during the war is indicative of the regime’s need for manipulative control rather than reflective of broad support for the regime’s worldview. The most significant shift in the Kremlin’s wartime propaganda has been its codification in school education since the summer of 2022. This timing reveals more about the regime’s need to justify the war and its consequences than it does about any consistent long-term strategy. Key actors behind the ideological codification are opportunistically exploiting the current context. Meanwhile, ideological radicals face little opposition, as most citizens show limited interest in their activities. Despite the regime’s indoctrination practices, the indifference of society suggests that the conditions for a strong anti-Western consensus after Putin will be weak. Such a consensus can only emerge if the future regime, like the current one, is able to maintain satisfactory material conditions and a tolerable daily life alongside its ideological views, whatever they may be.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Radicalization, Democracy, Ideology, Post-Soviet Space, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

439. Europe’s development and peacebuilding cuts: Securing short-term interests, risking long-term security

Author:: Katariina Mustasilta
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Development cooperation budgets are tightening in the EU amid economic pressures and a focus on security and defence. Two broad shifts are taking place in EU and member state investments in peacebuilding and conflict prevention: a general decline in funding and decreasing attention to conflict-affected regions and countries in particular. Local and international conflict prevention and peacebuilding actors need to frame their work to align with the EU’s economic, security and geopolitical interests in order to remain relevant in an era of strategic competition. The implications of the shifts in funding will depend on how changes are implemented and under what types of strategies. A general risk is that policy decisions will be based on a short-term and largely reactive rationale at the expense of a long-term perspective on Europe’s interests.
Topic:: Security, Development, International Cooperation, European Union, Crisis Management, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Europe

440. Unpacking Security Council Resolution 2719 (2023)

Author:: Eugene Chen
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The approval of a framework for the financing of African Union (AU) peace support operations (PSOs) by the United Nations (UN) Security Council on December 21, 2023, with the adoption of resolution 2719, represents significant progress in the development of the UN-AU partnership in peace and security as well as a commitment from the Security Council to support the adequate, predictable, and sustainable financing of AU-led PSOs. At the same time, the achievements of the negotiators in reaching this outcome should not obscure the additional work that lies ahead to interpret, implement, and build on the resolution.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, UN Security Council, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa

441. Strengthening Violence Prevention at the UN: 11 Overlooked Facts

Author:: Céline Monnier and Joanne Richards
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: This policy brief argues that UN and member state efforts to prevent violence are often ineffective because why violence occurs is not well understood. The authors highlight the critical role of risk and protective factors in violence prevention work and outline 11 facts that are frequently overlooked when policymakers attempt to stop violence from occurring. To increase the effectiveness of prevention efforts, policymakers should be aware of these critical points and incorporate risk and protective factor analysis into existing UN diagnostic tools and inter-governmental processes.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacebuilding, and Violence Prevention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

442. Adapting BINUH to Meet Haiti’s Evolving Challenges

Author:: Sophie Rutenbar
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) is struggling to remain relevant amid major shifts in Haiti’s political, security and humanitarian landscape, including the deployment of a Security Council-mandated multinational security support mission to assist the National Police. The renewal of BINUH’s mandate represents an opportunity to realign its role and resources to better address Haiti’s evolving challenges. By enhancing political engagement, coordination, and thematic expertise, and by mitigating risks associated with the MSS, BINUH can play a more effective and relevant role in supporting Haiti’s path to stability and development. The next few months are critical, and the UN must be agile and responsive to ensure the success of the MSS and the broader international efforts in Haiti.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Caribbean and Haiti

443. Calculable Losses? Arms Transfers to Afghanistan 2002–21

Author:: Matt Schroeder
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Following the Taliban’s assumption of control in Afghanistan in August 2021, uncertainty has persisted about the scale, scope, and specific elements of the arsenal it captured from the previous regime. A new report from the Small Arms Survey, based on hitherto unpublished official data, provides the most refined picture to date of the arsenals captured by the Taliban. Calculable Losses? Arms transfers to Afghanistan 2002–21—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Contributing to Preventing Arms Proliferation from, within, and to Afghanistan project—analyses the publicly available data on arms exports to Afghanistan, identifies gaps in this data, and provides previously unreleased data obtained from the US government.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Taliban, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

444. Continuity and Change: Extremist-used Arms in Mali

Author:: Holger Anders
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Mali has faced more than a decade of armed violence perpetrated by extremists, resulting in thousands of victims among national and international armed forces, UN peacekeepers, and civilians. Continuity and Change: Extremist-used Arms in Mali—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—investigates the arms, ammunition, explosives, and other materiel used in extremist attacks in Mali from 2015 to 2022, and the sources and pathways through which they were obtained.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Violent Extremism, Weapons, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, and Sahel

445. Meaningful Partners: Opportunities for Collaboration between Women, Peace and Security, and Small Arms Control at the National Level

Author:: Callum Watson
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: National actors working in small arms control and on women, peace, and security (WPS) share commitments to reduce suffering, maintain peace and security, and contribute to the realization of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, while these cross references are increasingly commonplace in the international policy framework, this does not often translate into harmonized references in national action plans (NAPs) on WPS and small arms control. Meaningful Partners: Opportunities for Collaboration between Women, Peace and Security, and Small Arms Control at the National Level—a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Gender-Responsive Arms Control project—identifies potential avenues for future work to better harmonize efforts related to WPS and small arms control, and improve the effectiveness of both policy areas in achieving their objectives.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Women, Sustainable Development Goals, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

446. A Political Economy of Tripoli’s Abu Salim: The Rise of the Stability Support Apparatus as Hegemon

Author:: Adam Hakan
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Once a hotbed of pro-Qaddafi resistance, Abu Salim is now a stronghold dominated by Abdelghani al-Kikli (widely known as ‘Ghaniwa’) and his Stability Support Apparatus (SSA). Ghaniwa has consolidated power over Abu Salim—the main southern gateway into the Libyan capital of Tripoli—through violence. A Political Economy of Tripoli’s Abu Salim: The Rise of the Stability Support Apparatus as Hegemon—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment In North Africa (SANA) project—examines how Ghaniwa’s methods have reshaped Abu Salim’s political economy, and how the hegemonic nature of this military consolidation has allowed the SSA to take on an outsized role in Libya’s broader political and economic spheres.
Topic:: Political Economy, Hegemony, Armed Forces, and Instability
Political Geography:: Libya, North Africa, and Tripoli

447. Exploiting Evidence, Improving Protection: Weapons Technical Intelligence in UN Peace Operations

Author:: Emile LeBrun and David Lochhead
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Over the last decade, UN peacekeepers and their beneficiaries have been the targets of threats from hostile actors armed with small arms and light weapons, rockets and mortars, IEDs, and related weapons. Assessing and countering these threats requires peacekeepers to have the capacity to focus on hostile actors’ access to and (mis)use of weapons and the destabilising effects of arms proliferation. Exploiting Evidence, Improving Protection: Weapons Technical Intelligence in UN Peace Operations is a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project. The paper discusses the current and possible future deployment of weapons technical intelligence (WTI) roles and activities in UN—as well as hybrid and non-UN—peacekeeping operations. It also examines the contributions that WTI could make, if leveraged, for situational awareness, force protection, and mandate implementation, including the protection of civilians and human rights investigations.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Weapons, and Protection
Political Geography:: North Africa

448. The Influence of the UN at the Country Level: The Case of Sri Lanka from 2007 to 2011

Author:: Neil Buhne
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:: Assessments of the effectiveness of the UN often assume that there is one “United Nations,” when in fact there are many different “United Nations”: one of these is the UN at the country level, whose work is often undervalued or overlooked. As the experience in Sri Lanka from 2007 to 2011 demonstrates, the UN despite internal and external limitations, can have unique influence on a country’s crisis response and development path, because of its role in most countries as the “locally based international organization” transparently embedded in a country and society. Through that, it may be able to influence a country across the range of needs related to peacebuilding, human rights, crisis response/humanitarian assistance, and development/recovery. If there is stronger recognition and support for that role, the UN can be a better “influencer,” helping countries to prevent crises and/or respond to them in ways which improve their citizens’ lives. The experience in Sri Lanka demonstrates both the limits on what a UN Country Team can do “locally,” and what more a UN country team can do to influence the possibilities a country has.
Topic:: United Nations, International Development, Crisis Management, Peacebuilding, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:: South Asia and Sri Lanka

449. Climate Adaptation Finance: The Gap Between Needs and Resources Continues to Grow

Author:: Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:: Our recent research on the state and trends of climate adaptation finance needs, gaps, and trends globally and in Africa provides new insights that call for greater urgency in adaptation action and financing. The global adaptation funding gap continues to widen because the understanding of needs shows much higher levels of investment required, and the rate of increase of adaptation financing is insufficient. In this policy brief, we review global climate finance trends, the growing funding gap in climate adaptation finance globally and in Africa, financial instruments used for climate adaptation, and challenges and recommendations to improve the tracking of climate adaptation finance.
Topic:: Climate Change, Climate Finance, International Development, Funding, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

450. Georgia at a Crossroads: An Increasingly Illiberal Domestic Policy is Becoming an Obstacle to EU Accession

Author:: Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Georgia faces a defining moment. The recent adoption of a Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence, modelled on Russian legislation, clashes with Georgia’s goal of EU accession. The law allows for extensive control and elimination of civil society and critical voices, which contradicts the democratic principles required for EU membership. The ruling Georgian Dream party nonetheless claims that EU accession, a goal shared by most Georgians, remains achievable by 2030. As the parliamentary elections on 26 October approach, the party seeks to maintain its grip on power by projecting an image of commitment to democracy and EU integration. But opposition parties, civil society organisations and the media have rallied against the law, which many believe reflects a deeper issue: the efforts of a small elite around billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili to consolidate power and push Georgia towards authoritarianism under the guise of democratic governance. An increasing alignment with Russia has accompanied this trend, potentially enabling Russia to exert some level of control over Georgia through a local proxy instead of direct military intervention. This policy brief argues that the EU should implement the steps that High Representative Josep Borrell announced after the Foreign Affairs Council on 24 June 2024. In light of further developments, consideration should be given to additional measures, including targeted EU sanctions on anti-democratic actors similar to those imposed by the US. Continued EU support for Ukraine’s resistance to Russian aggression will also be vital for the sovereignty of both Ukraine and Georgia, as well as for regional stability.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, Regional Integration, Domestic Policy, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Georgia

451. Demography in the next institutional cycle: Preparing the landing space

Author:: Maria Gargano and Emilia Pauwels
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Demographic challenges, under different narratives, mediatic and political framing, have been more and more present in the European political debate. The Report on the Future of the Single Market, the so called ‘Letta Report’, mentions demographic shifts a dozen times. Many parties in the run up to the elections for the renewal of the European Parliament in June 2024, have inserted this topic in their programmes. The Greens and the European Socialists approached demography through prioritizing the participation and wellbeing of older generations, with the latter also calling for a cohesion policy which reverses brain drain from remote regions. The European People’s Party takes a more structural approach, promising to continue the support for the current Vice President for Democracy and Demography with the suggestion of introducing a coordinating agency, while ECR Group adopts a fertility-centred view, advocating for measures to support birth rates and family values. In addition, the strategic agenda for the next five years provides to address in a comprehensive way demographic challenges and to ensure the support to a thriving longevity society. However, the borders of a landing space in which the different policy areas intertwine with the consequences of demographic change, remain very uncertain.
Topic:: Demographics, European Union, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

452. Back to the Future: Applying Cold War Wisdom to Modern Belgian Defence

Author:: Bernard Siman
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Dust off the Cold War files that are lying under mounds of dust in the archives of our European Defence chancelleries. Bring back willing retired officers to share their knowledge of how things were done over 45 years of a solid and ultimately successful defence posture. There is bound to be a wealth of instructive and useful structures, tools, experiences and models, tested to their limit and refined to near perfection over the period of the Cold War between 1945 to the early 1990s. They can be adapted to suit the need for a rapid build-up of both defence capabilities as well as resilience. Belgium’s obligations in NATO: Cold War lessons in brigades’ formations As the new Belgian government undergoes the trials and tribulation of horse-trading to form a new cabinet, following the recent general election, it behoves all politicians to make the defence of the realm a priority, using the wealth of information contained in the experiences of the Cold War. Do the negotiating politicians need more of a prompt than the NATO summit currently held in Washington (2024), celebrating the 75th anniversary of the most successful defence alliance in history, that coincided with the start of the negotiation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Cold War, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

453. Three Key Concepts for a More Successful Migration Policy in Belgium

Author:: Pierre Verbeeren
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In this policy brief, the author proposes 3 concepts to underpin the new Belgian migration policy, taking into account the new structure of the State. Belgium needs a robust mechanism for dialogue between federal and federated entities. The Regions and Communities have the essential competences for integration. Until our societies find the key to integration, migration policies will remain painful. Finally, our policies must respond to flows of migrants, not to stocks of migrants. These policies must support trajectories rather than groups. A government agreement based on dialogue, integration and flows is more likely to meet the challenges of migration than an agreement that reinforces the federal state’s sovereign power over a stock of migrants.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Migration, European Union, Domestic Policy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

454. Thoughts on Improving EU Governance

Author:: Jim Cloos and Giles Merritt
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The EU is changing before our eyes, and we need to rethink parts of its governance. The institutional change-over in 2024 provides a good opportunity to do that. Streamlining EU governance is key to improving its efficiency and gaining credibility and popular support. We asked close to one hundred EU policy specialists with various backgrounds to answer a questionnaire on ‘Strategy and priority-setting,’ ‘Structures,’ ‘Working methods and red tape, and ‘Communication.’ Our focus is on adjustments short of treaty change. Most of our interlocutors agreed with this stance, but there were also dissenting voices. As one expert remarked: “The small reforms we are talking about here are simple, blurring the minds and creating an illusion that change in procedures can resolve fundamental governance and legitimacy deficits….” It is necessary to clarify our thinking. We do not rule out treaty change and more important institutional reforms over time. But there is no appetite presently for a major debate about treaty change with a Convention and a long negotiation process. Waiting for such a process to bring about much needed governance adjustments would be a mistake. Instead, improving governance now may well lead to more ambitious reforms once the conditions are right or the outside circumstances dictate a much more radical overhaul of the EU.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Institutions, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

455. Re-Empowering Belgian Foreign Policy

Author:: Alexander Mattelaer
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Belgium’s existing foreign policy framework was never designed to cope with the return of war and the decay of the rules-based international order. As a result, the country’s international position is rapidly deteriorating. The incoming Belgian government will face the daunting task of articulating a new foreign policy that is tailored to the demands of a new era. This Egmont Policy Brief makes the case for putting security back at the centre of Belgium’s international outlook, complementing the strong focus on the EU with strong bilateral diplomacy, and reversing the budgetary erosion of the Belgian foreign policy apparatus. By strengthening its diplomatic corps and its network abroad, the new government can help ensure the collective security and prosperity of all Belgian citizens, that is to say: the national interest.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

456. The End of Uganda’s Refugee Model, or Just a ‘Transition’?

Author:: Kristof Titeca and Roos Derrix
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Uganda is lauded world-wide as a model for refugee-hosting: It hosts nearly 1.7 million refugees, the highest in Africa, taking in refugees from its neighbouring countries. It also offers them free access to a plot of land, as well as public services. This refugee model is however under severe pressure, due to reduced donor funding. This is largely for political and ideological reasons: donor are increasingly unwilling to finance a protracted crisis such as a Ugandan one; a process which was further accelerated by the outbreak of major humanitarian crises such as Ukraine and Gaza. In this context, funding for the Ugandan refugee crisis is shifting from humanitarian to development funding, but for now without any major donor willing to foot this bill. This situation shows a major friction in the geopolitical status(es) of the country: on the one hand, it is a key-ally for the West as a ‘regional host country’, in which refugees can be hosted in their home regions, and are prevented from migrating to the West. On the other hand, Uganda is experiencing rapid democratic backsliding, manifested by measures such as the brutal anti-gay law or skyrocketing corruption, making continued engagement difficult – including for the much-lauded refugee model.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Crisis Management, and Donors
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

457. Modi III and the EU, after the Elections

Author:: Jan Luykx
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The May elections in India and the June elections for the European Parliament have resulted in leadership-continuity in Delhi and in EU-Brussels. Does this mean that Europe can expect ‘more of the same’ from the new Indian government and vice versa? Will the EU and India take the opportunity of this new start to re-engage in a more significant way than they have done during the last couple of years? Will they be able to identify common interests, and more importantly, act upon them?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Narendra Modi, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, and India

458. The EU Joint Communication on the ClimateSecurity Nexus One Year On

Author:: Eleonora Milazzo
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: To mark one year since the adoption of the Joint Communication on ‘A New Outlook on the Climate and Security Nexus’ in June 2023, last summer the Belgian Presidency of the EU and the Egmont Institute, together with the EEAS, organised a workshop to take stock of the progress in its implementation. The conclusions reached during the workshop indicate that the Joint Communication has consolidated ‘climate and security’ as a key policy area. The broad approach of the Communication to climate change and environmental degradation, and peace, security and defence, ensures new thematic and operational connections – both at the global level and in specific local contexts. At the same time, in the next policy cycle, it is important to continue to support the operationalisation of this nexus across the whole spectrum of relevant policy areas including human security, conflict prevention, peace, and development and humanitarian action. To achieve this, it is fundamental to strengthen evidence use through existing tools, ensure necessary human and financial resources, devise localised solutions, and engage with a broad range of partners.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Migration, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

459. No End in Sight? The West, China, and the Russo-Ukrainian War

Author:: Sven Biscop
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The West supports Ukraine as a non-belligerent. China purports to be neutral, but the West increasingly sees it as a non-belligerent on the side of Russia. In a way, the West’s and China’s approaches are not dissimilar: doing enough for “their” side to stop it from losing the war, but otherwise sitting it out in the hope that the other side will somehow give up. That can hardly be called a strategy. Both the West and China will have to review their strategies if they want to preserve their interests. Will this inevitably increase tensions between them?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Asia-Pacific

460. Russia’s Potential Alliance with Hizbollah: A Strategic Challenge for the EU in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Bernard Siman
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: One year on, the debate has been dominated by Israel, Hizbollah and the potential for regional war in the Middle East. An additional credible scenario has been worryingly absent: that in which Hizbollah and Russia cooperate, not necessarily to the exclusion of Iran as a third leg in a tripartite alliance. This scenario combines geography, history and geopolitics to bring Hizbollah and Russia closer together as a force to recon with. This is a possible development in the Southern Neighbourhood and the Levant that the EU needs to take seriously. Missing Russia’s potential move on Hizbollah could be an historic omission. The decapitation of Hizbollah’s chain of command that preceded the ground incursion, and Iran’s feeble reaction to the devastating assault on its Lebanese proxy, have created a new geopolitical vacuum and reality in the Eastern Mediterranean. Russia may spot an opportunity in the misfortunes of Hizbollah and move on a weakened prey. Will Russia’s direct influence return to Beirut for the first time since the 1770s when it occupied the city for a few months following the naval defeat of the Ottoman fleet at the battle of Cheshme? It is a distinct possibility, especially given Iran’s lukewarm military response, and one that the EU, and member states, must be prepared to deal with, if not pre-empt and prevent.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Eastern Mediterranean

461. Engaging in Fragile Settings: Acknowledging the Cost of Inaction

Author:: Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen, Céleste Ricci, and Edouard Rodier
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On September 30th, 2024, the Egmont Institute, the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), and the Centre for Humanitarian Action (CHA) convened a panel of experts from the humanitarian assistance, development, and peace sectors to assess the new working environment of the incoming European Commission and discuss its implication for the EU response to fragility. The discussion occurred days after the release of mission letters to Commissioners-designate, and provided an opportunity to assess how the EU, with its new structures and priorities, could sustain engagement in fragile contexts. This paper aims to restitute some of the findings and recommendations that emerged during the exchanges, focusing on pathways and instruments for more effective structural responses to fragility during this decisive period.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, State Engagement, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Europe

462. What’s Brewing in Benin? Security Collaboration in the Gulf of Guinea

Author:: Nina Wilén
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Gulf of Guinea has drawn attention from Western states in recent years due both to increasing spillover of violent extremism from the Sahel and because of Sahelian military juntas’ shift of security partners from Western countries to Russian actors. Indeed, as three Sahelian states experienced five coups during the past years and gradually ousted their former security partners, starting with France, followed by the UN (in Mali) and the EU and the US (in Niger), the Gulf of Guinea countries’ relative stability and geopolitical positions have attracted new attention from external actors. Benin, neighboring both Burkina Faso and Niger, saw attacks by jihadist groups crossing the borders in the North of the country already in 2019. Although expanding relatively slowly, between 2021 and 2024, the number of attacks grew, forcing the government to invest more resources in counter terrorism efforts and reflect on more immediate ways to counter the expansion. Out of the Gulf of Guinea countries, Benin has so far been the hardest hit, and recorded a doubling in the number of recorded fatalities (to 173 deaths) over the past year. A figure which remains small in comparison to neighboring Sahel states, but which still indicates an increase. In spite of these attacks and the adoption in 2019 of a new electoral code limiting political opposition parties, Benin has remained relatively democratic and stable. Such stability has attracted old and new security partners to increase collaboration, both to counter terrorism and because of the expulsion from the Sahel countries. The US, France and Belgium have all intensified security collaboration with Benin over the past few years, while the EU has launched a new, regional CSDP initiative in the Gulf of Guinea. African states have also showed interest for Benin, with Rwanda offering to send troops bilaterally for counter terrorism purposes, similar to its operations in Mozambique. This policy brief aims to explore Benin’s security situation and international partnerships in the security domain, while identifying current and future challenges to such collaborations. The conclusion argues that Western and multilateral actors should maintain discrete collaboration but be cautious not to overburden Benin with their presence as absorption of new capabilities and capacities take time, and as a too heavy presence of Western security actors can become a burden rather than an advantage for the government. External actors should also continue to support recent efforts by the authorities to open up the political landscape to maintain its long-standing democratic tradition.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Partnerships, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Sahel, Benin, and Central Africa

463. Geopolitics and Geography: A Realigned EU Strategy for Stability in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Bernard Siman
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The new EU Commission should commence its geopolitical thinking by acknowledging that geography is not kind to those who ignore her. The new European Parliament has the unique opportunity to become perhaps the first geopolitical parliament through a similar process. States, political leaders and societies ignore their geographic realities at their peril. Perceptions of location, distance and neighbourhoods can be dangerously distorted when they drift too far off from actual geographic realities. Digital technology, ease of air travel (bypassing the unpleasant geographic realities on the ground), combined with over three decades of peace in Europe, and 50 years in the Middle East, have created the distorted perceptions that somehow Israel’s and Ukraine’s neighbourhood was liberal Europe. These collective perceptions, untethered from their geographic realities, eclipsed perhaps the fact that both have neighbours with whom they have been at differing degrees of long-simmering conflicts. In reality, however, Israel and its neighbours have not succeeded at resolving the conflicts on its very borders, betraying the perception of peace. It is as if those neighbours with whom Israel has been in conflict had disappeared.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Geography
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

464. The Politics behind the EU-Rwanda Deal(s) and its Consequences

Author:: Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the 14th of October, the news emerged that the EU is in the final stages of a discussion to award €20 million to the Rwandan army for its operations in Mozambique – where it is fighting insurgents in the oil-rich Gabo Delgado province. It would be the second time in two years that the EU awards this amount under the European Peace Facility (EPF): it also did so in December 2022. At that time, the decision was met with anger in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as it was already documented by the UN how the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) were supporting the M23 rebellion in Eastern DRC. In the meantime, this support has become clearer, with the last report from the UN Group of Experts from June 2024 extensively documenting the RDF operations with M23 in Eastern DRC. The news of potentially another €20 million is therefore met with anger in Congolese politics and society, primarily directed at the EU. It is a question which puzzles many: why does the EU want to award €20 million to the Rwandan army, in the midst of its violations of international law in Eastern DRC? This piece will unpack this question and reflect on the consequences for the regional dynamics and the EU.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Law, Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Rwanda

465. Why the BRICS Summit in Kazan should be a Wake-up Call for the EU

Author:: Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the growing influence of the BRICS in a multipolar world, as highlighted by their recent summit in Kazan, Russia, and the challenges to effective global multilateralism. Originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa, the BRICS have recently expanded to include Ethiopia, Egypt, the UAE, and Iran. All BRICS members seek to reshape global governance to provide a greater voice for the Global South and strengthen South-South cooperation. However, internal divisions persist: China, Russia, and Iran view the BRICS as a platform to counter Western influence, while India, Brazil, and South Africa pursue ‘multi-alignment’ to diversify their global partnerships. This brief argues that, given the urgency of pressing global challenges, the EU should take the Kazan Summit as a wake-up call to develop and implement a strategy for engaging the Global South in the much-needed reform of global multilateralism. This effort is essential despite the reelection of Donald Trump as US President.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, European Union, Multilateralism, BRICS, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, North Africa, and Asia-Pacific

466. From Carrots to Sticks, to Carrots Again? The EU’s Changing Sustainable Trade Agenda

Author:: Victor De Decker
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Although sustainability criteria include references to human, social and labour rights as well as broader environmental concerns, this policy brief will focus on measures related to carbon emission reduction in relation to the Paris Agreement. This policy brief consists of three parts. First, there will be an overview of how Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) chapters have gained prominence in European Free Trade Agreements. The second part will be dedicated to the autonomous, unilateral EU initiatives the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the Corporate Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). To conclude, there will be a brief analysis of how the EU is working within a multilateral setting on the issue of climate change. In 2015, the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, a landmark framework renowned for its far-reaching vision encompassing 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. These goals collectively constitute the “universal policy agenda,” aiming to address global challenges and foster inclusive economic growth. Notable among these goals is the promotion of sustainable international trade, identified as a pivotal policy instrument contributing to overarching SDGs. The 2030 Agenda positions international trade as “an engine for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction” while actively contributing to the broader pursuit of sustainable development.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, European Union, Trade, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

467. Strengthening the Political Credibility of NATO Extended Nuclear Deterrence

Author:: Wannes Verstraete
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Due to Russian nuclear signaling during its war against Ukraine, there is renewed interest in strengthening nuclear deterrence in a Euro-Atlantic context. The changes in the agreed language in the new North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Strategic Concept, adopted on 29 June 2022 at the summit in Madrid, and the Vilnius Summit Communiqué from 11 June 2023, are examples of this interest. Subsequently, this policy brief focuses on one aspect of strengthening NATO’s extended nuclear deterrence (END), namely how can NATO adapt its nuclear policy and posture to mitigate the uncertainties related to the political credibility challenge of extended nuclear deterrence? Questions regarding the political will to use nuclear weapons by the guarantor to protect and reassure allies in an END relationship is a well-known evergreen that reappears from time to time. Therefore, the author argues that NATO should address this political credibility challenge by strengthening the role of European allies in the nuclear strategy of the Alliance.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

468. China, the West, and the Rest: Who is Enjoying the Shadow of Whom?

Author:: Jasper Roctus and Bart Dessein
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On Tuesday, July 25, 2023, Beijing announced that seasoned diplomat Wang Yi would return to his function as head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a post he had held for ten years (2013–2022). With this, he replaced his predecessor Qin Gang, a so-called ‘wolf warrior’ diplomat who was in office for only a few months. When former premier Li Keqiang (2013–2023) died of a heart attack on October 27, 2023, crowds of ordinary citizens laid chrysanthemum bouquets across the country, mourning for the more open and optimistic times that had characterized the era under Li’s patron, State President and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Hu Jintao (r. 2002–2012). Minister of Defense Li Shangfu was, after an equally short stint in office, replaced by former People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) admiral Dong Jun on December 29, 2023. In the case of Li Shangfu, who was sanctioned by the United States (US) over arms sales to Russia, his resignation was combined with a purge and crackdown on corruption within the rocket force of the PLA. Given the focus on the PLAN in Xi Jinping’s military reforms of the mid-2010s, this could be interpreted as an advantage point for the faction of China’s leader. This signal stands in contrast to the promotion of Hu Haifeng, the son of Hu Jintao, to vice minister of Civil Affairs on January 16, 2024. Keeping the much-speculated removal of Hu’s father during the 20th National Congress of the CCP of October 22, 2022 into mind, one might ask: Who enjoys whose sunlight to step out of the shadows?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

469. Inviting Non-DAC Perspectives to the Funding Gap Discussion – The Need for a Paradigm Shift

Author:: Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen and Edouard Rodier
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The magnitude of the humanitarian funding gap raises major concerns regarding the viability of the aid system as we know it. It threatens millions of persons from having their most basic needs met, and their fundamental rights respected. In May 2023, the European Council’s Conclusion encouraged the EU and its Member States to “intensify their outreach to countries with the economic potential to assume a greater responsibility”. This paper provides initial insights into the approach of non-DAC States to the evolution of humanitarian action in the past decade, as well as into the barriers to further engagement, and the reasons for which these should be overcome. It is largely inspired by a first brainstorming session at the Egmont Institute in Brussels in January 2024, which brought together a wide range of experts and officials from European and international cooperation institutions. It was a necessary step, but not enough to fully engage with non-DAC States.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, European Union, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Europe

470. Breaking the Cycle: The Need for Better Integrated Responses in Neglected Crises

Author:: Edouard Rodier and Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The magnitude of the humanitarian funding gap soars each year, leaving an increasing number of people with no assistance. In 2023, only 35% of the $56bn global appeal was covered, and anticipated budget cuts from major humanitarian donors will likely worsen the situation. Neglected crises that do not receive enough media attention and political support struggle to attract financial assistance at scale for humanitarian, development, peace, or climate initiatives. Following up on the EU Council’s Conclusion from May 2023, which emphasised the importance of reducing humanitarian needs by strengthening the connection between humanitarian, development, and peace efforts (HDP nexus), this paper suggests examining how well the nexus is applied in overlooked and neglected areas. It proposes to take advantage of the 2024 EU election year to explore new approaches to the current model and makes concrete suggestions to support better coordinated and integrated responses.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, European Union, Crisis Management, and Donors
Political Geography:: Europe

471. Defence of Democracy: a Discussion on Democracy and the Path Ahead for a Culture of Participation

Author:: Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the occasion of the European Commission’s release of the Defence of Democracy package (DoD) on 12 December 2023, the Egmont Institute – together with the G1000 – organised a debate focused specifically on the recommendation on the participation of citizens and civil society organisations in public policy-making. As part of Egmont’s wider outreach mandate under the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU and building upon G1000’s longstanding expertise as an innovator in the Belgian democratic landscape and beyond, the purpose was to explore the road ahead for this recommendation, both under the Belgian Presidency , as well as beyond by adoption of the next strategic agenda by the June European Council and the consequential Commission priorities.
Topic:: Civil Society, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

472. A Safe and Sovereign Europe in a Changing Global Context

Author:: Lila Djait
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, with support of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in collaboration with the Representation of the European Commission in Belgium, has organised a series of three foresight workshops and three working dinners. Each session was dedicated to a key strategic challenge, providing a vital platform for dialogue and expert insight sharing among decision-makers from European Union (EU) institutions, the Belgian administration, and civil society. Far from being just a theoretical exchange, the discussions were a targeted effort to further develop strategic long-term thinking, with a vision extending over the next 5 to 10 years. The second round of the foresight workshops and working dinners reflected on ‘A Safe and Sovereign Europe in a Changing Global Context’. In the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape, the EU is undergoing a transformation in its global positioning within the multipolar world order. The perception of the EU as a strongly integrated regional entity in an era of heightened power politics necessitates a more assertive, unified stance in global affairs, as well as a reinforced coordination of the internal and external dimension of EU policies. Yet, translating this perception into a cohesive, integrated approach to global affairs has proven challenging for its Member States. Strengthening EU sovereignty becomes crucial in this altered geopolitical reality posing a paradox: Member States need to transfer some sovereignty to the EU to effectively safeguard their national sovereignty. This is particularly relevant in areas like defence and migration, where national approaches fall short.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

473. Procurement by Proxy: How Sahelian Juntas Acquire Equipment from Ousted Security Partners

Author:: Nina Wilén
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: During the past two years military juntas in Mali and Niger have ousted three multilateral security missions in addition to French, and more recently American, forces deployed to fight jihadists in the two countries. Although being preceded by deteriorating relations, the decisions to kick out the international partners have been announced abruptly and the departures have been rushed as juntas have increased pressure for the missions to leave. After making the decision to oust the missions, the juntas have also mounted new obstacles for the missions and their departures, either taking, or forcing the missions to leave a large amount of equipment and material behind. This article argues that this is a deliberate strategy by the military juntas in Mali and Niger to acquire new equipment and material for their security forces, in some cases to be used with new security partners, such as Russia.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Russia, Mali, Sahel, and Niger

474. China, Sovereign Internationalism, and Silent Pragmatism

Author:: Bart Dessein
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Until the early 1990s, transnational institutions of which the United States (US) and the Soviet Union (SU) were the respective epicenters were formed. Sovereign nation states transferred increasing amounts of decision-making power to these institutions. Post-Second World War internationalization, globalization, and interdependence thus created the bipolar world order of the Cold War era. An important effect of the demise of the SU and the disappearance of the Soviet-led institutions has been that the currently existing institutes of global governance are part and parcel of the liberal democratic world order. The growing economic and geopolitical clout of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has given this country the possibility to reposition itself vis-à-vis this liberal world order. This repositioning has, in its turn, also impacted the foreign policies of the European Union (EU) and its member states. All this makes it worthwhile to reassess the observation of Henry Kissinger who, looking back at the 1950s, stated that “from the outset, Mao [Zedong] had no intention to accept an international system in the design of which China had no voice” worthwhile.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, Sovereignty, European Union, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia-Pacific

475. India and The EU in 2024: Where to Next?

Author:: Jan Luykx
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In this multi-election-year both the Indian Government and the European Parliament will soon face their respective voters. Relations between the EU and India, two powerful actors on the world stage, will hardly be a theme of much importance in these elections. With the present geopolitical turmoil in the world as background, the question arises whether India and the EU should enhance their strategic cooperation to a more significant level. Russia’s war on Ukraine is posing a real threat to peace and security for the rest of Europe and for the Eurasian continent. With China, Russia’s partner against ‘the West’, extending its influence in many parts of the world, while the rest of the world is waiting, often with apprehension, the outcome of the US elections, insecurity and uncertainty have become dominant feelings in many capitals. In this context, should the EU-political level not take note of the potential benefits of closer relations with a more ambitious India?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, India, and Asia-Pacific

476. PESCO: The Last Chance

Author:: Sven Biscop and Beatriz Cózar Murillo
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: To the outside observer, Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) equals the long list of projects rather than the 20 binding commitments that were hailed as a game-changer when PESCO was launched in 2017. At first sight, these 68 projects do not seem to work towards a single objective. Is the end of PESCO clear even to the initiated? It is not, in fact, and that remains the greatest obstacle to success. A (second) strategic review of PESCO is underway, but putting PESCO on the right track requires a fundamental overhaul.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO)
Political Geography:: Europe

477. Promoting European Democracy and Solidarity in a Wider EU

Author:: Lila Djait
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, with the support of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in collaboration with the Representation of the European Commission in Belgium, has organised a series of three foresight workshops and three working dinners. Each session was dedicated to a key strategic challenge, providing a vital platform for dialogue and expert insight sharing among decision-makers from European Union (EU) institutions, the Belgian administration, and civil society. Far from being just a theoretical exchange, the discussions were a targeted effort to further develop strategic long-term thinking, with a vision extending over the next 5 to 10 years. The third round of foresight workshop and working dinner reflected on ‘Promoting European Democracy and Solidarity in a wider EU’. In recent years, the European Union has faced a pivotal juncture in its history, grappling with internal and external pressures that test its foundational principles of democracy, rule of law, and solidarity. The discourse surrounding the enlargement of the EU, adherence to the rule of law, fiscal stewardship, and the need for a cohesive strategy to confront emerging geopolitical challenges underscores the imperative for a strategic re-evaluation.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, Economy, Solidarity, Regional Integration, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe

478. EU Elections: National Democracy at Its Cornerstone?

Author:: Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the eve of the European elections, those who keep a keen eye already know that a big turnaround of the European hemicycle is to be expected, with more than 50% being newly elected. In a recent article, the secondary place occupied by the European elections was highlighted; in Belgium they can even be said to only rank as tertiary due to its collision with national and regional elections on the same day. Although up to 8 member states will see both national and European elections in 2024, this very much gives a unique context to the EU elections in Belgium. Its conclusions however were not new: although the federal government presented itself as radically pro-European, currently holding the Council of the EU’s rotating Presidency, in Belgium as well as abroad, the European election is inherently still very much national in nature: the limited space that is left for it between the other campaigns becomes confused through both themes and politicians being presented at other levels than they (currently) sit.
Topic:: Economics, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

479. Fortifying Europe’s Semiconductor Ecosystem

Author:: Victor De Decker and Patrick Grady
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The chip manufacturing process, though intricate, is divided into three stages: design, production, and final assembly, testing, and packaging. Over the years, companies have started to specialise in a single aspect of one of these steps, making the global chip supply chain a complex web of interdependencies and a high degree of geographic concentration. Despite significant contributions to niches within this supply chain, Europe has historically lagged behind leading regions like the US and Asia in semiconductor production. This enduring gap underscores the need for strategic initiatives like the European Chips Act to bolster Europe’s position in the global semiconductor industry.
Topic:: Manufacturing, Supply Chains, Semiconductors, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe

480. Uganda’s Chess Game in Eastern DRC: With or Without M23?

Author:: Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Uganda has various economic, political and security interests in Eastern DRC. The latter is for example a vital export market for Ugandan products, and an important source of gold, Uganda’s most important export product. In this situation, a careful tactical game is played, in which Kampala seeks to protect these interests in Eastern DRC – for example from Kigali. This does not only involve a clear engagement with Kinshasa, but to a lesser extent also with M23. This is particularly the case because M23 is expanding (and keeping) its territory; creating an incentive for regional actors to engage with them.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

481. The Politics of Food and the Myth of the Self-Reliant Refugee in Uganda

Author:: Nina Soudan
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Changing geopolitical dynamics and a widespread ‘donor reset’ have resulted in reduced refugee assistance funding, compelling World Food Programme to make significant cuts to food assistance. This reduction has coincided with a strategic and theoretical shift towards refugee self-reliance in northern Uganda. While this responsibilisation of refugees has been globally praised as progressive and beneficial, refugees’ settlement experiences have questioned the sustainability of this approach, for whom it works, and under what conditions. This brief argues that WFP’s premature reduction of assistance, driven by the promotion of self-reliance, ultimately pushes refugees into greater hardship, while simultaneously highlighting the flaws in Uganda’s refugee model.
Topic:: Food Security, Geopolitics, Refugees, Donors, and World Food Program (WFP)
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

482. Climate Justice and Human Mobility: Bridging EU Commitments and Policies

Author:: Alicia Scodanibbio
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The complex interplay between human mobility and climate change has emerged as a pressing global concern, with profound implications for social, economic, and environmental stability. This policy brief examines the European Union’s response to the climate-migration nexus, tracing its historical evolution and current challenges. It highlights the need for a human rights-centred approach to policymaking, emphasising the importance of addressing the structural inequalities and power imbalances inherent in climate-induced migration. By integrating climate justice principles, the EU can pave the way for a more inclusive and sustainable approach to the challenges posed by climate change and human mobility.
Topic:: European Union, Institutions, Mobility, and Climate Justice
Political Geography:: Europe

483. Figures on the Billiard Table: EU-China Dynamics in the Wake of the 2024 European Elections

Author:: Bart Dessein and Jasper Roctus
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: While still a powerhouse in its own right, Europe’s relative influence on the world stage has been diminishing over the last few decades. Data, for example, highlight a significant shift in global trade patterns away from the old continent. According to a recent Brookings’ calculation, South-South trade had by 2009, i.e., around the time of the global financial crisis, increased from 10.9 per cent to 25.0 per cent worldwide. South-South trade thus surpassed North-North trade for the first time in world history. Today, 35.0 per cent of global trade is accounted for by South-South merchandise trade, and just 25.0 per cent of global trade is North-North trade. One important factor in this is a surging China-Africa trade. With China’s bilateral trade with Africa rising from 2.7 billion dollar in 1990 to 209 billion dollar in 2022, China has now become Africa’s single largest trading partner.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, Trade, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

484. Looking towards the North: Belgium’s Role in the Arctic

Author:: Karen van Loon
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Arctic region has re-emerged as an area of geostrategic importance and is attracting increasing attention from Belgium. Accelerating climate change has altered living conditions in the region. The prospect of greater commercial activity and rapid technological advances, combined with growing interest from non-Arctic states, means that the region is increasingly connected to, and an integral part of, the rest of the world. As this process unfolds, the Arctic could impact the global balance of power and the conditions of rivalry and competition between the great powers. While this may occur peacefully, the possibility of sudden, rapid changes and unpredictable shocks are no guarantee for stability. The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet. Climate change is transforming the region and creating significant challenges in the areas of security and defence, access and navigation, energy, infrastructure, cooperation, and governance. As a result, states in the region and elsewhere are turning their attention to the Arctic. This has important implications for the region’s security and stability.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Belgium, and Arctic

485. Towards a Comprehensive Mining Strategy for the DRC?

Author:: Erik Kennes
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Former Minister of Mining Willy Kitobo summarizes in a recent book what he considers to be the main problems of the DRC mining sector. He rightly underlines the largely insufficient geological data about the DRC’s mining resources, problems related to the correct implementation of the 2018 mining code, challenges of industrial and artisanal exploitation, and finally the huge environmental problems caused by mining practices in the DRC. While these issues are obviously important, they overlook the national and international political and economic context that frame the choices available to a government in this matter. A narrowing of political to technical problems characterizes the nature of official public debate about the mining sector in the DRC. The strategic choices for the mining sector made by and for the country, on a short, medium and long term, if any, are almost never debated, not only to hide the decisions taken from the public eye, but probably also because the necessary analysis has not been undertaken. Expertise in the academic community for the major part remains technical. Civil society very partially makes up for this gap, but even then, their activity is almost always issue-based and tied to funding for a particular project. Still, civil society for natural resources has developed over the years an impressive level of competence in issues of mining governance. Unfortunately, their expertise is not valued and used beyond the relatively short timeframes they must work in.
Topic:: Civil Society, Natural Resources, Mining, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

486. China and Geopolitics as Ontology

Author:: Bart Dessein
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Human beings are storytellers; stories form the cultural framework that gives sense to their behavior and existence. Nations, likewise, “are guided to act in certain ways, and not others, on the basis of the projections, expectations, and memories derived from […] available social, public, and cultural narratives”. Denying a political culture the right to own its story is tantamount to denying that political culture, and the human beings who belong to it, their very right to existence. Territorial integrity and unity After its defeat against European powers in the Opium Wars (1839–1842, 1856–1860), the Manchu government of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1911) was forced into signing the ‘unequal treaties’ (bu pingdeng tiaoyue). This put both the political leadership of the Manchus and the value and effectiveness of the traditional Confucian political ideology to the question. From this, the aspiration developed to create a Han Chinese nation state that would be built on Western political, social, and economic concepts. When the Republic of China (Zhonghua minguo) decided to join World War I in 1917 (in practice, the Chinese participation to World War I consisted of a contingent of some 140,000 laborers – the so-called ‘Chinese Labor Corps’ – who were active in the logistics of the war in Belgium and France), this was partly because of the conviction that this would enable China to position itself as a modern nation state among equals. However, after the war, the 1919 Versailles Treaty stipulated that the territorial possessions Germany had acquired through the ‘unequal treaties’ would not be returned to China, but had to be transferred to Japan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, History, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia-Pacific

487. Demographic Jigsaw: Puzzling Out a Resilient EU

Author:: Maria Gargano
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In December 2019, for the first time, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen assigned a portfolio containing demography as a policy area to Vice-President Dubravka Suica. As the predictions for the European Union are currently looking at a continent whose population median age is rising increasingly fast, the mission letter tasked the Vice-President to lead the response to the challenges presented by the demographic shift. The modus operandi indicated was to be supporting all the groups concerned – especially the children, the old and those living in rural areas. However, this portfolio’s objectives were not supported by an EU-specific competence to act on demography, nor a dedicated budget or service in the Commission. Also at Member States level, this matter remains scattered around different national ministries dealing with health, territorial planning, regional, interior, among others. Nonetheless, the different areas and groups of the population impacted by demographic changes have presented in the past four years multiple entry-points for the European Commission to promote initiatives such as: the care strategy, the child guarantee and lastly the demography toolbox.
Topic:: Demographics, European Union, Resilience, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe

488. Infrastructures, energy and digitalisation: pillars for the sustainable development of transport in the Western Mediterranean

Author:: Mark Furness, Jordi Selfa, Sassi Hammami, Pier Paolo Raimondi, and Michel Noussan
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: With the Russian aggression on Ukraine and the war in Gaza being prolonged over time the Mediterranean region at large is in total turmoil. The Policy Study entitled “Infrastructures, energy and digitalisation, pillars for the sustainable development of transport in the Western Mediterranean” aims at contributing with shared reflections and formulation of policy proposals to the challenges and strategies that the region faces in the field of promoting sustainable development in the transport sector. To this end, the Policy Study delves into this topic from these three cross-cutting dimensions in the Western Mediterranean: infrastructures, energy and environment, and digitalisation. The European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and the Centre for Transportation Studies for the Western Mediterranean (CETMO) have taken on this stimulating task by continuing for a third year the preparation of a Policy Study that involves various authors who are experts in the field, while also unveiling some recommendations of public policy addressed to the Presidency of the Group of Transport Ministers for the Western Mediterranean (GTMO 5+5). Indeed, this publication released as a Policy Study comes within the framework of the Med Think 5+5 network of Western Mediterranean think tanks, a multidisciplinary platform of exchange associated with the 5+5 Dialogue, which brings together policymakers, practitioners and academics from the Western Mediterranean area. Considering transport and logistics as one of the most relevant sectors to foster socio-economic development and regional integration in the Western Mediterranean, the Med Think 5+5 network has been committed to promoting debate and knowledge-sharing on the issue, building upon support and expertise of the CETMO as Technical Secretariat of the Group of Transport Ministers for the Western Mediterranean (GTMO 5+5). As a matter of fact, the Med Think 5+5 convened seminars (2018, 2021) dedicated to the analysis of trends in the Western Mediterranean transport and logistics sectors, organised back-to-back with the GTMO 5+5. In this context, this Policy Study, which is part of the work programme of GTMO 5+5 under the Maltese presidency, aims at giving response to the challenges posed by climate change in the region and how the transport sector can counter it and adapt to it through digitalisation, the transformation and connection of transport with infrastructures and energy.
Topic:: Infrastructure, European Union, Transportation, Energy, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: China, Europe, North Africa, and Mediterranean

489. Towards Inclusive Mediterranean Economies: Advancing Women’s Economic Empowerment in the Region

Author:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: In this first publication of the MedWE programme, the IEMed and the Union for the Mediterranean aim to contribute to applied research on the crucial area of gender equality and women’s empowerment. In the contemporary Mediterranean landscape, women face many obstacles that hinder their complete economic and social advancement. This publication is the result of the conference organised in cooperation with LECE in October 2023 in Barcelona. During this conference, the MedWE program brought together experts, policymakers, and entrepreneurs to explore strategies for overcoming barriers and promoting women’s economic empowerment in the Mediterranean region. Through a series of panel discussions, key challenges, opportunities in the areas of education and workforce participation, entrepreneurship, access to finance, legal and regulatory reform, and gender equality in the work environment were examined. Various stakeholders shared expertise and effective practices to foster women’s economic empowerment across different sectors and levels within the Euro-Mediterranean region. This policy study, combined with the work of the Union for the Mediterranean, intends to establish a new line of work which addresses gender as a central element for advancing towards a more inclusive Mediterranean. Through recommendations that will serve as a valuable resource for policymakers, business leaders, activists, and scholars committed to forging a fairer and more just future for all inhabitants of the Mediterranean, the paper seeks to foster greater gender equality and social inclusion in the region. By identifying key challenges and proposing strategies, it contributes to promote women’s economic empowerment across the Mediterranean.
Topic:: Women, Equality, Inclusion, Empowerment, and Gender
Political Geography:: Europe, North Africa, and Mediterranean

490. Renewable Energy and Electricity Interconnection Megaprojects in North Africa: Prospects for Euro-North Africa Cooperation

Author:: Michaël Tanchum, Hussein Suleiman, Alexander P. Martin, Tristano Sainati, and Jose Rodrigo Juarez Cornelio
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: This Joint Policy Study delves into North Africa’s renewable energy landscape, examining the potential and challenges of megaprojects in the region. With a specific focus on renewable energy production and exports, it explores the intricacies of megaprojects in Morocco, Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia, assessing their successes, hurdles, and future potential. North Africa, especially the Sahara Desert, has vast potential for renewable energy production due to its exceptionally high solar irradiation levels, positioning it as an ideal site for solar energy projects. Economically and geopolitically, there is a strong rationale for Euro-North African collaboration to enhance North Africa’s ability to generate and export renewable energy in a way that benefits both regions. However, despite this significant potential, North African countries have faced numerous geopolitical, economic, societal and infrastructural obstacles in fully capitalising on these resources.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Solar Power
Political Geography:: Europe and North Africa

491. Policy impacts of the Climate Change Conferences in the Mediterranean

Author:: Jérémie Fosse and Haiat Jellouli
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The Mediterranean region, a recognized climate and biodiversity hotspot, faces accelerated and multifaceted impacts from climate change, with implications for its socio-economic stability, ecosystems, and public health. Rising temperatures, extreme climate events, sea-level rise, water scarcity, and biodiversity loss threaten the environmental, social and economic foundations of the region, especially in sectors like agriculture, tourism, and fisheries taking place in densely populated areas with fragile ecosystems. Both terrestrial and marine temperatures in the region have already increased by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This trend is expected to continue, with projections suggesting a further rise of between 0.5 and 6.5°C by the year 2100. Other alarming projections include an increase in surface water temperatures by 1 to 4°C throughout the century and a significant reduction in rainfall. Furthermore, sea levels in the Mediterranean have already risen by 6 cm over the past two decades, with an expected increase of 43 to 84 cm by the end of the century. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conferences of the Parties (COP) have been instrumental in galvanizing global attention and action on climate issues. From the early COPs that focused on foundational agreements like the Kyoto Protocol to the more recent and ambitious Paris Agreement at COP21, these conferences have played a crucial role in shaping the global climate regime. For the Mediterranean, the COP process has provided a framework within which regional and national efforts can align with broader global objectives, particularly in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing climate resilience. The Paris Agreement, with its goal to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and ideally to 1.5°C, is especially significant for the Mediterranean, where even small increases in temperature can have outsized impacts. The commitment to both mitigation and adaptation, alongside the establishment of mechanisms for climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building, has offered Mediterranean countries the tools to confront their unique challenges. The post-COP21 era has seen Mediterranean countries implement adaptation measures in critical areas, such as water management and coastal resilience, while also working to enhance renewable energy sources like solar and wind. However, regional progress is uneven, hampered by financial limitations, political instability, and capacity gaps. Scaling up climate finance, strengthening regional cooperation, and bridging technological and institutional divides are essential for the region to meet Paris Agreement commitments effectively. The future of the Mediterranean depends on the region’s ability to build resilience and adapt to these multifaceted climate challenges. This will require enhanced regional cooperation, as no country can effectively tackle these issues in isolation. Regional frameworks such as the Union for the Mediterranean and the Barcelona Convention must be strengthened to foster collaboration on climate action, with a particular focus on shared resources like water and energy. Equally important is the need to scale up climate finance. Mediterranean countries, particularly those with fewer resources, need more robust support from international funding mechanisms like the Green Climate Fund and the Adaptation Fund. These resources must be directed towards projects that address the most pressing issues, such as water management, renewable energy infrastructure, and coastal protection. Reinforcing institutional capacity is therefore a critical step. Many Mediterranean countries face significant governance and technical challenges that impede the effective implementation of climate policies. Investing in education, capacity building, and governance reforms can help bridge this gap, enabling countries to better execute national climate plans and make use of international support. Furthermore, technology transfer must be accelerated. For Mediterranean nations to effectively mitigate emissions and adapt to climate impacts, they need access to cutting-edge technologies that can enhance energy efficiency, improve water use, and protect ecosystems. In conclusion, urgent and coordinated action is needed to safeguard the Mediterranean from escalating climate risks. Strengthening regional frameworks, enhancing access to international funding, and accelerating technology transfer will be vital in supporting Mediterranean countries. By fostering resilience through sustained commitment to climate adaptation and mitigation, the Mediterranean region can protect its future and offer valuable insights for other vulnerable areas worldwide.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Treaties and Agreements, Resilience, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: North Africa and Mediterranean

492. Grand Strategy: Shield of the republic

Author:: Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Grand strategy is a state’s theory about how to provide for its own security. Leaders must decide how to best translate scarce means into political objectives. Limited resources and the high stakes of national survival force leaders to prioritize. Military power is dependent on wealth, industry, geographical endowments, population size, and effective domestic institutions. The various conditions in which states find themselves help motivate and constrain the grand strategy formulated by their leaders. The United States is still the most powerful, secure, and prosperous country in the world, with a favorable geographic position and many internal advantages. U.S. grand strategy has historically been concerned with preventing the rise of a regional hegemon in Eurasia by maintaining the balance of power. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States became the only great power in the world. Unfortunately, it squandered the “unipolar moment” by pursuing a costly and counterproductive grand strategy of “liberal hegemony,” which has left it overextended. The United States’ secure geostrategic position and the improbability of a Eurasian hegemon allows it to adopt a grand strategy of restraint. This shift will help the United States to preserve its power, minimize risks, and adapt to the rise of new great powers. This strategy requires the United States to adopt a more rigorous definition of its vital interests and to shift to its allies the main burden of defending themselves.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, and Unipolarity
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

493. Grand Strategy: The Balance of Power

Author:: Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The “balance of power” refers to the distribution of capabilities among states, as well as a possible equilibrium between them. A state’s military power is based on several factors, especially its economy and population. To survive in an anarchic world, states “balance” against rivals that threaten to become overwhelmingly powerful. This can include “internal balancing,” by which states build up their own capabilities, and “external balancing,” where states form alliances. Primacists and restrainers disagree about the balance of power. Primacists believe global hegemony is optimal and stable. Restrainers believe the pursuit of global hegemony is quixotic and self-defeating, leading to overextension and provoking counterbalancing by other powers. The United States is extremely powerful and secure thanks to its economy, geography, population, and military, among other factors. The prospect of a potential Eurasian hegemon emerging is remote. China is a formidable great power that warrants attention, but its geography makes expansion difficult, and it can be counterbalanced principally by other states in East Asia. A rough balance of power exists in both Europe and the Middle East, and therefore there’s no potential hegemon on the horizon in either region. The United States’ pursuit of primacy discourages allies from providing for their own defense to balance against threats, while uniting adversaries seeking to counterbalance the United States. The United States should instead encourage its capable allies to take responsibility for their own defense while seeking to keep its competitors divided through prudent diplomacy.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Grand Strategy, and Balance of Power
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

494. Grand Strategy: Geography

Author:: Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Geographic distance and the current state of military technology interact to favor defense while diminishing the threat of conquest. The stopping power of water in particular obstructs the ability of even the most powerful states to project power overseas. Proximate land powers are the most likely to engage in security competition and conflict, while distant or sea powers are relatively isolated from potential adversaries. This strategic insularity is even greater if a state has a large and diversified economy and the resources to be relatively self-sufficient. The United States is separated from other great powers by thousands of miles of ocean to both its east and west, and is the most powerful, prosperous, and secure state in the world. However, many of the same conditions which make the United States secure also make it difficult to project power, carry out wars far abroad, and maintain military primacy on land in Eurasia. The United States should both embrace its abundance of security and accept the limits to its offensive power, using its position as a continent-sized maritime power to act as an offshore balancer rather than a hegemon on the flanks of the Eurasian landmass.
Topic:: Security, Grand Strategy, Geography, and Balance of Power
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

495. Grand strategy: Alliances

Author:: Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Alliances are usually temporary arrangements among states to counter—or “balance” against—a specific common threat. The United States’ Cold War alliances, by contrast, have become seemingly permanent. States tend to balance power when they face a major threat. Bandwagoning, by contrast, is a particularly poor option for states with the capability to put up a fight. When threatened, states tend to join forces in alliances rather than surrender their national survival to the whims of a more powerful aggressor. Alliances, however, entail costs and risks. These include the dangers of being drawn into war through entanglement and entrapment, the deleterious effect on deterrence by allies that neglect their defense by “free-riding,” and the moral hazard produced by enabling allies to act like “reckless drivers.” Over time, the United States has shifted from a deep skepticism of “entangling alliances” to a global network of security dependents that are treated as an end in themselves, rather than a means to an end. This posture has left the United States overextended, while encouraging allies to neglect their own capabilities and preparedness. The United States can and should significantly reduce its alliance commitments, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, where threats to the U.S. are remote and local powers can balance adversaries. In Asia, the United States should act as a backstop to the regional balance of power rather than a vanguard.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Grand Strategy, Alliance, Balance of Power, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

496. Uganda’s Oil Refinery: Gauging the Government’s Stake

Author:: Paul Bagabo and Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Uganda’s planned oil refinery will have several benefits for the country, including for its security of fuel supply and balance of payments. The refinery could be reasonably profitable, generating an internal rate of return of 13 percent in a baseline scenario. The government is planning to take a 40 percent stake but may ultimately pay a higher price for this equity than it expects. Even if it borrows to cover its upfront contribution to costs, it will need to divert around $330 million in present value terms from the national budget for loan repayments in the 2030s. This price will increase if downside risks, such as cost overruns or lower global oil prices, materialize. The government can take several steps to increase interest from other investors, including by reducing the risk of cost overruns, ensuring deregulated product prices continue, and providing less risky forms of state support such as tax incentives. These should reduce the need for the government to take a large stake.
Topic:: Oil, Regulation, and Investment
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

497. Responsible Change: How Governments Can Address Environmental, Social and Governance Challenges When Petroleum Assets Change Hands

Author:: Nicola Woodroffe
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: As the world moves toward a future beyond oil and gas, petroleum assets will change hands, with different kinds of companies replacing others. Since 2014, around USD 88 billion in assets have moved from publicly listed to private companies. The roles of sub-Saharan African and Latin American companies in their home countries have expanded. Globally, the role of national oil companies (NOCs) is growing. NOCs have acquired around $24 billion in assets from non-NOCs since 2014. The growing role of private and local companies and NOCs potentially gives producer countries greater control over their petroleum sectors, including the pace of an eventual phaseout. However, these companies often have less capacity and fewer transparency, environmental, social and governance commitments than publicly listed international companies. This increases the risk that these companies’ operations will negatively impact the environment and communities, and that they will be unable to pay for decommissioning when production ends. Many assets that sub-Saharan African and Latin American NOCs have acquired appear vulnerable to energy transition risks. Governments should exercise approval rights over asset transfers to ensure buyers have requisite capacity to operate with high standards. They should ensure transparency to allow host communities and the public to better understand transfer impacts and how the government and/or companies will manage them, and strengthen regulations to address key issues arising from transfers including emissions management and reporting, and decommissioning funding. Governments should require NOCs to make adequate disclosures about their acquisitions to ensure NOCs manage risks to the public purse.
Topic:: Environment, Oil, Governance, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

498. Guidebook on Nigeria’s Energy Transition

Author:: Tengi George-Ikoli and Nafi Chinery
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: This guidebook serves as a comprehensive reference tool for the Nigerian government, as well as an accountability tool that enables Nigerian civil society actors to track the government’s implementation of its commitments to the energy transition. Nigerian government has designed to transition from fossil fuels—oil, gas and coal—to renewable energy technologies, including institutional, policy, legal and fiscal frameworks. It is informed by engagements with state and non-state actors including representatives of the government, the private sector, communities, youth and women’s groups, and by their views of the strengths and weaknesses of Nigeria’s energy transition plans. Accounting for Nigeria’s unique context and peculiarities as a fossil-fuel-dependent nation, the guidebook seeks to provide greater clarity on ways to navigate the energy transition for the Nigerian government, civil society, the media, the country’s citizens and the international community. It also seeks to mitigate transition led shocks and strengthen the overall transition process in Nigeria. The guidebook can enhance stakeholder knowledge of Nigeria’s energy transition process and government action to accelerate the transition. This should encourage the adoption of a comprehensive plan aligned with the needs and realities of most Nigerians. The insights provided in the guidebook may also inspire and influence regional conversations across the African continent, creating a collective demand for a people-centered and just energy transition in multiple countries.”
Topic:: Climate Change, Oil, Gas, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

499. Assessing the Fiscal Regime in Ghana’s Lithium Agreement

Author:: Thomas Scurfield and Denis Gyeyir
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: NRGI modeling indicates that the Ghanaian government has negotiated a government take for the country’s first lithium mine that is higher than Ghana’s legislated fiscal regime and the regimes of many other current and imminent lithium hard rock producers, such as Australia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe. Modeling suggests an average effective tax rate (government revenues as a share of mine profits) of 58 percent (excluding paid state equity). Seventy percent of these government revenues depend on the profits that mine leaseholder Barari DV Ghana reports. To limit the risk of revenue shortfalls, the agreement should define the process for pricing the lithium, limit the deductibility of interest from taxable income, ensure state equity is non-dilutable and establish rules in the shareholders’ agreement about dividend payments. Given that modeling indicates an after-tax internal rate of return for investors in the Ewoyaa mine of around 102 percent (after debt financing), the government may be able to negotiate an even higher take in future deals for similarly profitable mines. A variable rate royalty could help achieve this higher take. To increase the prospects for a lithium refinery in Ghana—the government’s other key objective—the government should ensure Barari conducts a rigorous feasibility study, publish it and then hold a multistakeholder consultation to agree on subsequent actions.
Topic:: Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, Lithium, Revenue Management, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

500. Strengthening Methane Emissions Reduction in Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Sector

Author:: Ahmad Abdulsamad and Tengi George-Ikoli
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Nigeria, with the world’s ninth-largest gas reserves, is a major methane emitter, accounting for 16 percent of sub-Saharan African methane emissions from 2010 to 2020. As the Federal Government aims to expand domestic gas use and exports, immediate action is needed to prevent increasing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. Unchecked oil and gas sector methane emissions threaten to exacerbate the climate change crisis, harm community health and safety, and undermine Nigeria’s capacity to trade in the global market and leverage the proceeds to sustain its economy. Nigeria needs a robust methane emissions framework to address technical and regulatory gaps across the oil and gas value chain. Frameworks should deliver tailored monitoring reporting and verification (MRV) systems that combine satellite and leak detection and repair (LDAR)technologies, create synergy among stakeholders, and incentivize methane emissions reduction. Oil and gas companies, including Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL), must prioritize investments in methane emissions reduction technologies, reflect global environmental commitments in local operations, and participate in independent data disclosure initiatives, such as the new Extractive Industries Transparency Initiatives (EITI) requirements for greenhouse gas emissions and the Nigeria EITI (NEITI) audit process. Civil society organizations should raise awareness, demand robust methane emissions frameworks and leverage tools such as the EITI standards to monitor company and government compliance with national and global commitments.
Topic:: Climate Change, Fossil Fuels, Methane, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS