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151. Strengthening Alliances: The strategic importance of the Russian foreign minister's Asian tour

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On Friday, July 11, 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov embarked on a high-level diplomatic tour encompassing North Korea and China, aiming to coordinate efforts on several pressing issues of mutual concern. Lavrov's visit to Pyongyang occurred as part of the second round of strategic dialogue between senior diplomats. Meanwhile, his trip to China coincided with his participation in the ministerial meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The meeting served as preparation for the anticipated Russian-Chinese presidential summit scheduled for August 2025, during which officials are expected to discuss the current state and future prospects of the SCO's activities, along with regional and international developments.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Affairs, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, and North Korea

152. The Indian Factor: Analyzing Pakistan-Turkey Rapprochement and its Implications for India

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
In a move that reflects the deepening ties between Pakistan and Turkey, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Turkey on May 25–26, 2025 — his second visit to the country this year — as part of a broader regional diplomatic tour that also included Iran, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan. The tour aimed to express Pakistan's gratitude and strengthen regional partnerships in the wake of its recent military confrontation with India. Turkey's support for Islamabad during this conflict has strained India–Turkey relations, prompting New Delhi to launch campaigns calling for the boycott of Turkish products and services.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Partnerships, Rapprochement, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Turkey, and India

153. Geography and Energy: The US-Central Asia Partnership in Critical Minerals

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The U.S. administration has issued an executive order aimed at boosting domestic production of critical minerals, reflecting President Donald Trump's recognition of the national security risks posed by China's dominance over global supply chains in this sector. Following the approach of previous administrations, the current leadership has sought partnerships with multiple suppliers to diversify American access to these vital resources. The focus has now turned to the five Central Asian republics—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—a region rich in minerals essential for energy and defense technologies. Through two primary frameworks, the U.S. has begun exploring Central Asia's untapped critical mineral wealth: the C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue and the G7 Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), alongside a series of bilateral memorandums of understanding signed with the region. However, political ambition does not necessarily align with the logistical challenges of emerging supply chains in Central Asia. In response to these complexities, analysts Haley Nelson and Natalia Stroz published a report with the Atlantic Council titled "Central Asia's geography inhibits a US critical minerals partnership."
Topic:
Partnerships, Energy, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Central Asia, North America, and United States of America

154. Strategic Shift: Understanding Russia's Delisting of the Taliban

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Russia's relationship with the Taliban has undergone a significant transformation in recent times. Moscow now perceives the Taliban as a potential strategic partner, seeking to establish more open diplomatic relations—a remarkable departure from the hostile stance maintained since 2003 when Russia formally designated the movement as a terrorist organization. This gradual evolution has unfolded over recent years, culminating in a growing understanding and emerging cooperation between two former adversaries.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Taliban, Geopolitics, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, and Taliban

155. Ocalan’s Call: Can Peace Be Achieved Between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
After four decades of violence claiming at least 40,000 lives, Abdullah Ocalan, founder and leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), issued a message from his prison on an island off Istanbul on February 27, 2025. In his statement, Ocalan urged the PKK to lay down its arms, end its resistance against the Turkish state, and dissolve itself. Responding positively to Ocalan's call, the PKK's executive committee announced in early March 2025 that it accepted his proposal and awaited Ankara's response. The initiative aligns with a proposal launched on October 22, 2024, in the Turkish parliament by Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Bahceli's initiative aimed to facilitate dialogue with Ocalan to disband the PKK, disarm its fighters, and declare an end to terrorism in Turkey—a move endorsed by Erdoğan.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Peace, PKK, and Abdullah Ocalan
Political Geography:
Turkey and Kurdistan

156. Fragile Ceasefire: Will international efforts succeed in halting the escalation in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
In response to the escalating humanitarian crisis in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the coalition of rebel groups led by the M23 movement[1] announced a ceasefire on February 4, 2025. The decision came after intense military clashes in the city of Goma, which had been intensifying since January 25. According to the United Nations, the conflict has had devastating consequences, resulting in at least 900 deaths, approximately 2,880 injuries, and the displacement of over 400,000 people since the beginning of the year.
Topic:
Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and M23
Political Geography:
Africa, Rwanda, and Democratic Republic of Congo

157. Uncertainty in Caracas: What Awaits Venezuela's Maduro in his Third Term?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On January 10, 2025, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year term. The opposition condemned this event as a "coup," accusing Maduro of election fraud in connection with the presidential elections held on July 28, 2024. In response, the government organized a rally in support of Maduro in the capital. Meanwhile, the opposition staged a protest led by Maria Corina Machado, who made her first public appearance since August 2024.
Topic:
Economics, Elections, Protests, Organized Crime, Social Unrest, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

158. ‘Maximum pressure’ sanctions on Venezuela help US adversaries, hurt Venezuelans

Author:
William Tobin
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The “maximum pressure” strategy employed from 2018 to 2022 against the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela did not serve US interests. Stringent oil sanctions imposed on Venezuela forced the retreat of Western oil firms from the country, principally benefitting adversaries. During the maximum pressure campaign, Venezuela’s oil production was rerouted to China at discounted prices, Iran supplied the diluent Venezuela required for oil production, and Russian investors became more critical amid a dearth on Western investment. A democratic transition remained elusive while repression and human rights violations continued. Venezuelans suffered, US adversaries expanded their influence, and Maduro remained. The current system of issuing specific licenses for Western oil producers to operate in Venezuela has yielded superior results. The benefits of this policy have been the following: Venezuelan oil exports have been diverted to friendly nations. Treasury has increased visibility on all oil-related transactions, decreasing the clandestine shipment of oil through shadow tanker fleets operated by the Chinese defense establishment, Iran, or PDVSA. Compensation to the regime is limited to taxes and royalties, which are required by Venezuelan law. The system has enabled the return or reemployment of qualified engineers and technicians to restore production from degraded oilfield infrastructure. The incoming US administration should prioritize inflicting more harm on the regime and its enablers than the Venezuelan people—or US interests. To do so, sanctions must be linked to clear objectives. An uncalibrated reapplication of maximum pressure would cede influence to China, Russia, and Iran, while doing little to loosen the regime’s grip on power. Instead, the existing system of specific licenses should be maintained and expanded. To punish Maduro, the administration should continue to target individuals who enable his illegitimate rule, adding to the 180 individuals already sanctioned by the Treasury. A targeted sanctions policy—not maximum pressure—is the only way to ensure that US actions to confront the Maduro regime impose their desired effect, and do not play into the hands of Beijing, Moscow, or Tehran.
Topic:
Markets, Governance, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Venezuela, and United States of America

159. Minerals diplomacy as geoeconomic statecraft: Implications for resource security priorities in a rapidly changing world

Author:
Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Critical raw materials (CRMs) and rare earth elements (REEs) are essential for defence, emerging technologies, and the energy transition. However, supply chains remain highly concentrated, with China dominating much of the refining and processing. Asymmetries and choke points highlight the need to control these resources. Minerals diplomacy has become a central tool for geoeconomic actors, including the US and the EU, to secure CRMs and REEs, often through deals with resource-holding third countries. This creates new partnerships while heightening competition to bind third-party countries, which, in turn, seek to assert their agency. Minerals diplomacy blends cooperative, coercive, and binding elements, as governments combine bargaining, leverage, and deals to maintain access to critical resources. States are also deploying creative solutions, such as recycling and reusing mining waste, to reduce external dependencies and enable more self-reliant systems, but this requires effective public-private cooperation. The intensifying contest for CRMs and REEs exposes governance gaps. Accounting for local perspectives, establishing stronger international oversight and global benchmarks, and ensuring equitable outcomes could ease competition, give third-party countries a greater voice, and serve as a tool of geoeconomic soft power.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economy, Trade, Supply Chains, Minerals, Energy, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

160. The geoeconomic turn in the Americas: The Dominican Republic at the centre of Washington’s return

Author:
Lauri Tähtinen
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The tide is turning rapidly as the United States shifts its response to China’s industrial rise, with Washington returning to the Western Hemisphere in search of not only new trade relationships but also industrial, foreign, and security policies. This shift reflects a geoeconomic turn in the Americas, where economic actors – from drug cartels to critical supply-chain partners – are increasingly treated as security concerns, blurring the line between commerce and security. The Dominican Republic is positioning itself as a partner in both the joint development of the Americas and US security. Its growing alignment with the United States reflects global shifts elsewhere, such as in Finland’s relationship with Washington. The Dominican Republic’s sustained economic growth and its location between the US territory of Puerto Rico and the region’s security challenges place it at the centre of Washington’s attempt to re-engineer hemispheric value chains and security partnerships.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economic Growth, Trade, Supply Chains, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and United States of America

161. Global development in crisis: Responding to America’s retreat

Author:
Sarah S. Stroup
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
A definitive shift in both resources and rhetoric has upended the global development sector. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the policies of the new US administration, although many European states had already started reducing foreign aid budgets earlier. Beyond its vicious rhetoric and wrecking-ball approach, the Trump administration’s arguments echo three long-standing critiques that development professionals have made themselves. Development experts in the US and Europe argue that development goals have become too broad, aid has failed to reach local actors, and the sector is too technocratic and removed from the concerns of Northern publics. A renewed focus on poverty reduction, combined with power-sharing abroad and public engagement at home, may provide answers to these critiques. Achieving development outcomes may require focusing less on providing direct assistance and more on reducing the harms created by Western states in other arenas, including trade and finance.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, and Budget
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

162. The war in Sudan in the era of a multipolar world: Mismanaged rather than forgotten

Author:
Katariina Mustasilta
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The war in Sudan is not a “forgotten war”. Rather, it is a highly internationalised geopolitical battleground, reflecting old peacebuilding failures and key implications of the shifting international order for conflict dynamics. Nor is it a proxy war, as the involvement of external actors is opportunistic and issue-based, with state powers supporting different sides while maintaining cooperative ties elsewhere. Peace efforts in Sudan are fragmented and heavily influenced by geopolitical agendas, sidelining civilian agency and undermining multilateral frameworks for peace. For the EU, Sudan presents a challenge in reconciling its values-based approach with its pursuit of pragmatic foreign policy. From a long-term strategic perspective, it is imperative to support Sudanese-led peace efforts beyond transactional deals.
Topic:
War, Geopolitics, Crisis Management, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

163. Easier Said than Done: Overcoming Coherence Challenges Within the United Nations System

Author:
Eugene Chen
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
Personnel and budgetary policies and procedures can seem esoteric at best and incidental to the lofty work of the United Nations (UN), even to seasoned UN watchers. These issues, however, are not merely technical matters within the purview of administrative officers or Fifth Committee delegates. The normative and operational functioning of the United Nations is a function of its personnel and budgets, but not only as a matter of adequate resourcing. In fact, the policies and practices of the UN around the management of its personnel and budgets also have an outsized and underappreciated effect, including on whether mandates are implemented in a coherent and effective manner. This newest policy brief on overcoming coherence challenges within the UN from Eugene Chen, senior fellow, provides a primer for: Efforts to enhance UN coherence. Administrative obstacles to coherence. Observations and recommendations for UN bureaucratic leadership and member states.
Topic:
United Nations, Reform, Budget, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

164. The Process for Selecting the Secretary General of the United Nations

Author:
Mark Simonoff and Thibault Camelli
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
In 2026, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) will engage in a process to select the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. The current Secretary-General, António Guterres, will complete his second five-year term at the end of 2026. This paper offers a historical overview of the evolution of the process for selecting and appointing the UN Secretary-General over time. This process consolidated decades of practices and rules, and was recently refined by the General Assembly in its resolution 79/3271 adopted on September 5, 2025. In short, the process has evolved from a non-transparent, closed-door exercise, almost exclusively dominated by the Security Council, to a more transparent and inclusive process involving more active and engaged participation from the General Assembly. This policy brief, originally published in July 2025, has been updated as of October 2025 to unpack this process.
Topic:
United Nations, UN Security Council, and Secretary General
Political Geography:
Global Focus

165. Drivers of Extremist Sympathies: Security, Ideology, and Firearms in Lebanon and Tunisia

Author:
Doaa' Elnakhala, Gergely Hideg, and Darine Atwa
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Lebanon and Tunisia share a common struggle against extremism, but the social, political, religious, and ideological make-up of each country is quite different. The Small Arms Survey conducted a general population survey in the two countries between September and November 2023, in which 3,339 adults were interviewed about their views on key elements of their lives, violent extremism, and firearms. Drivers of Extremist Sympathies: Security, Ideology, and Firearms in Lebanon and Tunisia—the latest Briefing Paper from the Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—demonstrates a clear linkage between firearms and violent extremism, though manifested differently in the two countries. The paper also demonstrates that chronic insecurity and the absence of effective state-provided security play a significant role in fostering affinity for violent extremist groups. The findings have implications for other countries struggling with similar issues, both in the Middle East and North Africa region and beyond.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Violent Extremism, Weapons, and Ideology
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Lebanon, and Tunisia

166. Climate Crisis and Gender Equality: Emerging Security Risks in the Euro-Mediterranean Region

Author:
Manale Abou Dagher, Noura Abdelwahab, Sarine Karajerjian, Suzanne Baaklini, and Zeina Moneer
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
This policy study focuses on a critical and timely intersection – gender equality and climate change – and highlights the disproportionate impact of climate change on women, especially those living in climate-vulnerable rural areas. This publication is the result of discussions held during the session “Climate Crisis and Gender Equality in the Euro-Mediterranean Region: Emerging Security Risks” at the High-Level Conference on Women for the Mediterranean, co-organised by the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) and the Commissioner for Gender Equality of the Republic of Cyprus on 30-31 May. The event brought together experts from the region to share insights, challenges and policy recommendations, highlighting the importance of empowering women in climate decision-making processes to effectively address these emerging risks. Research shows that women’s leadership in climate action increases the effectiveness of policies, particularly in sectors such as agriculture, water management and renewable energy, where they are disproportionately affected by climate change. However, barriers such as limited access to finance and technology and under-representation in green sectors continue to hamper their potential to drive climate solutions.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Women, Leadership, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Europe

167. Swipe Right for Talent: Tinder for Jobseekers as the New Way to Recruit Non-EU Workers

Author:
Maria Gargano
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
A platform where EU-based employers and third country nationals could find their perfect half – known officially as the Talent Pool, or more informally the Tinder for Jobseekers – seems to be taking its final shape, and has entered the negotiations phase with European lawmakers. The platform crosses paths with several other EU initiatives aiming at boosting EU’s competitiveness through its labour market. Presented as part of the Skills and Talent Mobility Package, the EU Talent Pool promises the EU employers to help fill their vacancies and help with sector wide shortages, and non-EU nationals to find jobs in a standardised, predictable way across Member States. The EU knows the continent is lagging in talent acquisition compared to its peers. Employers in the EU say they have difficulties finding candidates, with SMEs being particularly affected: 74% declares to be facing skills shortages for at least one job role in their company currently. For some Member States, the situation is not only currently bleak, but those difficulties have doubled or more in the last five years for countries like Belgium, Italy or The Netherlands.
Topic:
European Union, Employment, Labor Market, and Jobs
Political Geography:
Europe, Belgium, Italy, and Netherlands

168. The Arctic: A Strategic Shift for Europe. A Unique Opportunity for Belgium

Author:
Hanaa El Hajji
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
With this clear assertion, the European Union published its updated Arctic policy in October 2021, titled “A stronger EU commitment to a peaceful, sustainable and prosperous Arctic.” Since then, the geopolitical landscape in and around the Arctic has shifted rapidly, requiring greater focus and an adapted response from the European Union as a whole. Since the publication of the EU’s 2021 Joint Communication, the Arctic’s strategic landscape has shifted dramatically. The war in Ukraine has disrupted Arctic cooperation, halting dialogue with Russia within the Arctic Council, and Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO has altered the regional security architecture, leaving Russia increasingly isolated among the Arctic Eight. These shifts have challenged the concept of “Arctic exceptionalism,” revealing how the region is becoming more deeply entangled in global geopolitical rivalries. Meanwhile, the intensifying effects of climate change are amplifying the Arctic’s economic and strategic value.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, International Cooperation, European Union, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Europe, Belgium, and Arctic

169. The Geopolitical Impact of USAID’s Retreat on Humanitarian Aid: Towards a Complementary Approach between China and the EU?

Author:
Edouard Xia and Alexandre Piron
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Trump’s decision to cut funding and stop most of USAID’s projects will have lasting consequences. First and foremost, it adds great pressure on an already big funding gap. Forgotten and underfunded crises will suffer from it. But Trump’s action will also bear an effect on the nature of humanitarian aid itself. USAID’s retreat accelerates a geopolitical shift. China, “Champion of the Global South”, will inevitably fill the void and promote its own model of foreign aid. Development, economic and humanitarian rationales are therefore expected to be increasingly mixed at the expense of a principled approach. What could in turn the EU, and Belgium within it, do? Could they play the role of a “missing link” and promote a complementary approach to China? This brief offers insights on some questions ahead of the upcoming European Humanitarian Forum.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

170. Strengthening EU Participatory Governance: Lessons Learnt from the Platform on Sustainable Finance

Author:
Sebastian Emde
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The European Commission’s participatory governance framework plays a crucial role in shaping EU policies, as exemplified by the Platform on Sustainable Finance (PSF). However, the PSF’s first two mandates revealed deficiencies in terms of transparency, balance, fairness, and accountability, limiting the body’s capacity to enhance the effectiveness and legitimacy of policymaking. As the PSF’s second mandate ended in March 2025, this policy brief discusses several lessons that can be learnt from this experience. It recommends structural reforms to strengthen both the legitimacy and quality of EU sustainable finance policymaking and to enhance participatory governance in the EU more broadly.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Finance, Transparency, Sustainability, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

171. Science as a Bridge: The Evolving Role of Research and Innovation in Euro-mediterranean Cooperation

Author:
Roger Albinyana, Joan Borrell Mayeur, Marilena Rossano, Rafael Rodríguez-Clemente, and Ali Rhouma
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
This policy study explores different aspects of Euro-Mediterranean research cooper­ation, offering perspectives from policy-makers, scientists, and stakeholders actively shaping the region’s research landscape. The articles included in the publication present a comprehensive overview of how research initiatives have evolved over the past 30 years and their impact on critical areas such as climate change, digital transformation sustainable energy, health, and inclusive economic growth.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Research, Economic Growth, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

172. From Integration to Inclusion: Empowering Immigrant Women in the EU

Author:
Justine Staelens
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the socioeconomic integration of immigrant women with a particular focus on their occupational integration and the labor market opportunities available to them. It explores the challenges encountered by immigrant women in Western European countries and critically assesses the current policy responses to these issues. The study highlights significant shortcomings in employment integration programs, showing their inadequacies in achieving the comprehensive societal inclusion of immigrant women. It offers a series of recommendations aimed at reorienting the concept of integration toward an intersectional lens that fosters the genuine inclusion of immigrant women within the EU.
Topic:
European Union, Women, Immigrants, Integration, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Europe

173. Fostering regional cooperation on natural disasters and crisis management in the Mediterranean

Author:
Talal Soud Deifallah Alghrair, Laurent Alfonso, Celine Yazbek, Jean-Claude Al Khalil, and Sonia Chabane
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
This Joint Policy Study explores how countries across the region can strengthen cooperation, enhance preparedness, and build resilience through innovation, inclusivity, and shared governance. The Mediterranean region stands at a critical crossroads, as the frequency and intensity of natural disasters and climate-related crises continue to grow. By analysing national approaches to disaster risk management (DRM) in countries such as Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, and Lebanon, the study highlights the Mediterranean’s multidimensional vulnerabilities — from water scarcity and urbanisation to conflict and governance fragility. It examines the role of the Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) and the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) in fostering cross-border cooperation and advancing a shared framework for prevention, preparedness, and recovery. Particular attention is given to the integration of technology and early warning systems, including artificial intelligence (AI) and geographic information systems (GIS), to enhance forecasting, risk assessment, and decision-making. At the same time, the study underscores the importance of inclusive strategies that involve marginalised communities, refugees, and displaced populations in disaster planning and recovery. Ultimately, the study argues that regional cooperation, technological innovation, and inclusive governance are essential to safeguarding communities and achieving long-term resilience. It calls for a renewed EU–Southern Neighbourhood partnership, leveraging mechanisms like the UCPM and the Pact for the Mediterranean to build a more cohesive and people-centred approach to crisis management.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Innovation, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Mediterranean and Europe

174. Preventing Corruption in Africa’s Transition Mineral Supply Chains

Author:
Susannah Fitzgerald, Aaron Sayne, Mohamed Cisse, and Moise Liboto Makuta
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:
The current increasing attention to Africa’s mineral resources could attract much needed investment to the continent or power broader development goals, but many citizens view the prospect of a new mining boom with suspicion. The sector has become synonymous with harmful and costly corruption, often perpetrated by wealthy elites and foreign companies who are able to avoid its worst impacts. At the same time, anticorruption actors should be alert to new or shifting dynamics, such as the greater emphasis on value addition, or challenges around access to financing. They should also devote more attention to issues that have long been overlooked, such as the intersection between corruption and other types of harm in the mining sector. Failure to properly address corruption and its causes and consequences will only lead to more harm and instability, both for African countries and across the mineral supply chains needed to power the green transition. Tackling these issues effectively requires a deep understanding of the specific nature of corruption in each country, yet the drivers of corruption often have global roots. Long-lasting solutions to corruption must therefore be a shared responsibility between African leaders, decision-makers in major market jurisdictions, multilateral actors such as the African Union and the African Development Bank, companies across the supply chain, investors and the donor community. Addressing this corruption is therefore crucial, to avoid the injustices of the past. Many of the risks are well known, surrounding political access and civic space, licensing and contracting processes for mining projects, the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and processes for collecting revenues from the sector. This means that there are important lessons to learn from the efforts of reformers across the continent and beyond to tackle these harms.
Topic:
Corruption, Accountability, Transparency, Supply Chains, Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

175. Measure to Manage MENA National Oil Companies’ Methane Emissions Reduction Commitments

Author:
National Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:
As methane emissions gain greater global attention and financing becomes increasingly tied to climate performance, the participation of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) national oil companies (NOCs) in global frameworks and initiatives is expected to grow. However, this will likely be at a different pace due to differing capacity and objectives of each NOC in the region. NOCs integrated into global financial markets are more likely to participate in multiple international climate initiatives and adopt ambitious. In contrast, isolated NOCs are slower to act unless driven by government mandates or policy priorities. NOCs’ methane abatement strategies can differ significantly than those of international oil companies (IOCs) due to differences in their ownership structures, regulatory environments, operational priorities and access to capital and technology. Most MENA NOCs operate largely within domestic regulatory frameworks which may be less stringent on methane emissions, especially in developing countries. Often, these NOCs prioritize economic growth and energy security over environmental or climate concerns. The lack of consistent and reliable methane emissions data from some NOCs presents a significant barrier to effective abatement. Without accurate baseline measurements, it is difficult to identify priority sources, track progress and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation efforts. Such data gaps can undermine transparency, making it challenging for stakeholders—including regulators, investors and international partners—to assess performance or offer targeted support.
Topic:
Fossil Fuels, Methane, Carbon Emissions, and National Oil Companies
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

176. Amid global challenges and the need for strong governance: JETP as a potential driver of Senegal’s energy transition

Author:
Aida Diop, Abdoulaye Ba, Papa Daouda Diene, and Elimane Haby Kane
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:
In an uncertain global context and facing urgent challenges in electricity access, the deployment of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) offers Senegal a unique opportunity to build a clear and coherent public policy for its energy transition. To meet these challenges and succeed in its energy transition, Senegal must establish a robust, inclusive, and cross-sector governance framework to guide the JETP’s deployment. This governance effort should be supported by effective public communication that reaches the most affected communities, providing the initiative with visibility and legitimacy. Repositioned strategic coordination, backed by strengthened interministerial leadership and an expanded, sustained steering committee (COPIL), is essential for an effective and inclusive energy transition.
Topic:
Gas, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Senegal, and Sub-Saharan Africa

177. From Mine to Market: Using Traceability to Fight Mineral Sector Corruption

Author:
National Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:
In the global rush for transition minerals, the path from mine to market may become a corridor of corruption. It’s a journey where smuggled minerals vanish, illicit funds are laundered, and communities are left behind. Traceability, then, isn’t just about tracking a product for commercial reasons; it’s about how it can be used to build responsible and resilient value chains. This two-page briefing explains how traceability systems can help identify corruption risks in mineral supply chains and support stronger due diligence. It outlines practical ways companies, governments and civil society can use traceability data to detect red flags, strengthen transparency and promote accountability—from mine to market.
Topic:
Corruption, Markets, Mining, Energy Transition, and Traceability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

178. Hague Summit Series: Recalibrating Relations with Russia

Author:
Katarzyna Zysk
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
At their 2024 Summit in Washington, NATO leaders reiterated that Russia “remains the most significant and direct threat” and that “the possibility of an attack against Allies’ sovereignty and territorial integrity” could not be excluded. They committed to reassess and overhaul NATO’s strategy and policy towards Russia in the light of the radically altered security environment.[1] In the run-up to the Hague Summit, debates have intensified over whether to declare the 1997 NATO–Russia Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security (NRFA) void.[2] Russia’s blatant violations of the act, including repeated acts of military aggression, extensive nuclear coercion and escalation in the grey-zone, large-scale military build-up, and, in particular, its brutal war against Ukraine have made the document increasingly untenable as a foundation for mutual relations. Moscow has openly declared itself at war with the west for years, yet it has simultaneously exploited the reassurance measures embedded in the document to undermine NATO’s security and cohesion.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and United States of America

179. Russia and the Red Sea since 2022: Militarised Foreign Policy or Strategy of Conflict?

Author:
Ivan Ulises Klyszcz
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Accounting for over 10% of world trade, the Red Sea is an essential waterway and a chokepoint for international shipping. Piracy, instability, and inter-state conflict are long-term challenges that have kept regional and extra-regional powers engaged in contributing to the security of the area. Since 19 October 2023, the Red Sea attacks on commercial shipping by the Yemen-based Houthi movement (Ansar Allah) have only raised the stakes. In this context, Russian engagements with the region deserve scrutiny. Crucially, between January 2022 and August 2024, Russia’s share of the total oil transit through the Suez Canal jumped from just above 0% to almost 70%.[1] Moscow’s reported support for the Houthi movement, its search for a naval base on the Red Sea shores, and its broader military diplomacy raise questions about the Kremlin’s intentions in the area. What is Russia’s approach to the Red Sea? How does it fit into Moscow’s broader aggressive foreign policy?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Piracy, Conflict, Houthis, and Shipping
Political Geography:
Russia, Yemen, and Red Sea

180. Hague Summit Series: NATO-Ukraine

Author:
Tony Lawrence
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Russia's war in Ukraine shows few signs of ending. Across Europe, there is a widely held view that the outcome of the war will be critically important to determining the continent's future security: Ukraine must prevail. This view, however, does not appear to be shared by the second Trump administration which, after a brief attempt to negotiate a (unjust) solution, seems unable to deliver on the president's campaign promise to bring peace, in particular if this involves being tough on Russia. Differences between the US and most European Allies regarding both the conditions for ending the war and Ukraine's longer-term integration into Euro-Atlantic security structures present one of the greatest dangers to the transatlantic relationship in the years ahead. More immediately, uncertainty about how to handle these differences presents the greatest risk that NATO's forthcoming summit in The Hague will not be seen as a success.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Peace, Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and United States of America

181. Hague Summit Series: The Central Issue. Defence Spending

Author:
Felix Gasper
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In 2014, the NATO Allies agreed that within a decade, they would spend at least 2% of their GDP on defence. Following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and war in the Donbas, and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Allies have focused more on strengthening their military posture. Donald Trump's insistence that Europe should take larger responsibility for its own security and the doubts he has sown regarding America’s commitment to its NATO obligations have strengthened European resolve and emphasised the need for the continent to foster greater military independence, including from the US. Trump’s vigorous return to these ideas at the start of his second term will make defence spending, in particular the Secretary General’s proposal for a new NATO target, the key agenda item for The Hague Summit.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

182. Hague Summit Series: Trump and the Rebalancing of NATO

Author:
Joshua C. Huminski
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The perception that the US has turned its back on or is in the process of separating from Europe and continental defence and security is certainly understandable. Naturally, there is a focus on the noise of President Donald Trump’s rhetoric rather than the signal of his policy intentions. While there remains and will remain significant transatlanticism at nearly every level of government, Congress, and across the ecosystem of policy institutions and industry, there is a growing appreciation of the drivers of the president’s policies within these circles. In many ways, the Trump agenda towards NATO is a practical recognition of new realities, and more a long overdue re-balancing of the transatlantic relationship to reflect the administration’s geostrategic worldview and domestic priorities.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

183. Hague Summit Series: The EU-NATO Relationship

Author:
Marianne Paire
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The return of great power competition and the weakening of the international order have produced significant threats to Europe's security. Most urgently, Russia's aggression has brought large-scale war to Ukraine and Russia into a hybrid confrontation with Ukraine's western allies. At the same time, the US seems ready to reduce its commitment to Europe's security and even to be hostile towards its long-standing partners and the values they defend.[1] This deteriorating geopolitical situation should encourage greater synergies between NATO and the EU, the two main organisations that deal with security and defence in Europe.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, Strategic Competition, Russia-Ukraine War, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
Europe

184. Francophonie: A Subtle Response to Revisionist Powers

Author:
Arthur Leveque and Justin Leveque
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The Organisation de la Francophonie (OIF) has long been a platform where France can reach out to its partners outside Europe. President Emmanuel Macron’s appearance at the latest 2024 Villers-Cotterêts OIF summit testifies to his willingness to defend a French concept of globalisation based on “a diplomacy that stands for sovereignty and territorial integrity” without “double standards.”[1] President Macron reiterated the outward vision of his government, extending his foreign policy to that of the entire Francophonie—seen as a French “area of influence.” The French president declaimed his resolute support for nations whose sovereignty and territorial integrity are in jeopardy, such as Ukraine, Armenia, Lebanon, and the Indo-Pacific countries. Undoubtedly, his speech was addressed to both his non-European partners tempted to apply double standards when Ukraine is mentioned and to revisionist powers like Russia and China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Globalization, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe and France

185. Parameters to Assess Escalation Risks in Space

Author:
Nivedita Raju
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Space-enabled services are critical for various civilian and military purposes. Current military uses of space—for example, in the Russia–Ukraine War—indicate several avenues for unpredictability and ambiguity, which can increase potential for escalation, both in space and on earth. Yet, there is no common understanding of escalation risks in the international community. This SIPRI Research Policy Paper identifies four parameters to assess escalation risks in the space domain: the target, the capability used, the effect and the consequences. These parameters can help establish a standardized approach to assess whether an attack is escalatory. Based on current trends that undermine predictability and transparency in space activities, these parameters inform recommendations to minimize escalation risks. These recommendations include proposals to limit attacks on high-value strategically significant space systems; undertake exchanges on critical infrastructure; characterize acts that are especially escalatory; to enhance resilience of space-based services for civilians; and to build a typology that identifies potential harms. The recommendations also demand further action from states to implement and enforce international law governing space activities and to engage with commercial actors to raise awareness and clearly establish their accountability.
Topic:
Security, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Disarmament, Space, Risk Assessment, and Nuclear Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

186. From Silos to Synergies: Partnering for Social Cohesion in the Sahel

Author:
Simone Bunse, Caroline Delgado, and Rachel Blair
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The Sahel Resilience Partnership (SRP) is a German government-funded initiative that unites two United Nations entities and Germany’s international development agency to address converging crises in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. The SRP is an example of the operationalization of the humanitarian–development–peace (HDP) nexus. The partners use coordinated, multisectoral programming covering food and nutrition security, climate-resilient ecosystems, social services and conflict resolution to enhance resilience to shocks and foster social cohesion. Key strengths include a multilevel steering structure and an adaptable joint regional plan. However, the SRP faces persistent operational challenges, notably navigating political instability and governance issues in the Sahel. Additionally, coordinating across agencies with different mandates, budgets, timelines and set-ups complicates efforts to achieve thorough geographical and programmatic convergence. The SRP and other organizations at the HDP nexus need to deepen complementarity, proactively share data and—where possible—seek operational convergence at the village level.
Topic:
Security, Governance, International Development, Peace, Social Cohesion, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Africa, Germany, and Sahel

187. Solar Power and Environmental Peacebuilding in South-central Somalia

Author:
Ann-Sophie Böhle and Kheira Tarif
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
In Somalia, widespread energy poverty and a heavy reliance on conventional energy sources are deeply linked to ongoing conflict dynamics. Dependence on firewood and charcoal worsens environmental degradation and intensifies competition over natural resources. These challenges are further exacerbated by the effects of climate change and limited access to basic services. To address these interconnected challenges, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Somalia is advancing rural electrification through solar power as part of a broader environmental peacebuilding strategy. This SIPRI Policy Brief explores how the IOM’s approach to solar power and the facilitation of local public–private partnerships (PPPs) can support environmental peacebuilding at three levels: the community level, the local business level and the district council level. By creating local PPP agreements to implement solar power projects, the initiatives aim to foster cooperation, reduce resource-based tensions and strengthen government legitimacy in south-central Somalia. The brief shares learnings from early implementation stages and provides recommendations for donors and implementing organizations seeking to enhance the peacebuilding potential of solar energy projects.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Solar Power, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

188. Strengthening the OSCE’s Climate Security Agenda

Author:
Emma Hakala and Florian Krampe
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Despite a clear mandate from the December 2021 Stockholm Ministerial Council Decision on Strengthening Co-operation to Address the Challenges Caused by Climate Change, the Organ­ization for Security and Co-oper­ation in Europe’s (OSCE) approach is yet to reach its full potential. An analysis of the cur­rent strategy shows that while the OSCE has strengths, such as a com­prehensive security man­date and a grass­roots presence through its field operations, its effectiveness is undermined by weaknesses, such as geopolitical distractions, a tendency to focus on general environmental work rather than security and poor integration between headquarters and field missions. To strengthen its work, the OSCE should frame climate change as a cross-dimensional security risk, create an annual integrated climate and environmental security assessment and improve internal cooperation. These actions would better prepare the organ­ization for a changing security landscape.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, and OSCE
Political Geography:
Global Focus

189. Security Cooperation between Japan and the Nordic States in Uncertain Times

Author:
Fei Su, Jingdong Yuan, and Jiayi Zhou
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Amid rising geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty, security dynamics between Japan and the Nordic states are evolving. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Japanese and Nordic security concerns have increasingly converged. Security cooperation between the two regions has expanded through bilateral initiatives and within broader frameworks such as the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Despite limitations in states’ resources and political will to operate beyond their immediate neighbourhood, there is mutual recognition of the need to engage more actively, individually and collectively, on security matters. This shared awareness provides a foundation for deeper cooperation in support of both regional and global security.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Threat Perception, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, Asia, and Nordic Nations

190. Climate Change, Human Mobility and Security

Author:
Kheira Tarif
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
This SIPRI Policy Brief explores the connected challenges of climate change, human mobility and security, highlighting how fragmented policies and misconceptions—such as the myth of mass climate migration—hinder effective responses. The brief contributes to addressing this gap by presenting findings on three underexplored dynamics across the mobility spectrum. It finds that urban migration can support adaptation but also strain urban conditions, involuntary immobility can heighten people’s vulnerabilities, and poorly designed climate action can lead to displacement, inequality or unrest. These dynamics show that governance determines the security outcomes of human mobility. To address this, the policy brief calls for safe, rights-based migration that facilitates climate adaptation; support for the most vulnerable, immobile populations; and people-led, democratic climate action.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Governance, and Mobility
Political Geography:
Global Focus

191. An Analysis of Local Authority Debt and Arrears in Zambia

Author:
Mbewe Kalikeka, Sydney Sihubwa, Liana Chikwekwe, Jones Bowa, Muchimba Sarah Siamachoka, and Mwelwa Banda
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The research study examines the financial health of local authorities and identifies opportunities to foster revenue generation crucial for service delivery at local level. It explores the accumulation of debt and arears for all 116 local Authorities in Zambia, analysing key factors contributing to financial strain and evaluating policy interventions aimed at enhancing fiscal sustainability.
Topic:
Debt, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

192. Country Economic Transformation Outlook (CETO) Report for Zambia

Author:
Mbewe Kalikeka, Margret Mbewe, Joseph Phiri, Thomas Mwimba, and Ignatius Masilokwa
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Country Economic Transformation Outlook Report Brief
Topic:
Development, Economy, Mining, and Middle-Income Countries
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

193. Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections

Author:
Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
A new survey for ECFR reveals people in many countries around the world are upbeat about the second Trump presidency. Many think Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace or reduce tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and US-China relations. In contrast, US allies in Europe and South Korea are notably pessimistic about the incoming president—suggesting a further weakening of the geopolitical “West”. Ukrainians are slightly more positive than not about the impact Trump might have on ending the conflict with Russia. But they are deeply conflicted about what could be an acceptable compromise settlement with Moscow. Europeans will struggle to find internal unity or global power in leading an outright resistance to the new administration. But the survey reveals that many in the world regard the EU as a player equal to the US and China—a strength European leaders should draw on as they enter the turbulent new presidential term. Rather than harking back to a post-cold war liberal order, Europeans should focus on understanding and seeing opportunities in the new world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Elections, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

194. Deadly skies: Drone warfare in Ethiopia and the future of conflict in Africa

Author:
Zecharias Zelalem
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The use of military drones is spreading across Africa, further destabilising countries facing deep tensions between typically authoritarian governments and rebel groups. While these governments have frequently pursued violence over dialogue in the past, the increasing availability of drones makes the military option seem cheaper and easier. In Ethiopia, where drone strikes are widespread, the government’s use of drones has not been enough to dislodge rebel groups from their strongholds. Deadly wars in the Amhara and Oromia regions have dragged on, while the war in Tigray rests on a fragile treaty. Meanwhile, drone distributor countries including China, Iran, Turkey and the UAE do not insist their clientele respect human rights. With no incentive to practice restraint, drone atrocities across Africa appear to be becoming increasingly frequent, causing friction with Western partners. As seen in the case of Ethiopia, this has paved the way for the likes of Turkey and Russia to expand their influence, helping facilitate a diplomatic drift away from the West that has emboldened African governments keen on pursuing war and cracking down on critics.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Authoritarianism, Weapons, Drones, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

195. Geopolitical greenery: How decarbonisation can speed the Western Balkans towards the EU

Author:
Lea Fanku and Engjellushe Morina
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The European Green Deal and the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans aim to bring countries of the Western Balkans into alignment with the EU’s green goals; and to integrate more closely with the bloc and its single market. Western Balkan states’ progress in the circular economy and transport decarbonisation has been weaker than in other policy areas, such as the energy transition, where the EU has provided more political focus and financial support. Stronger investment in the circular economy would help modernise Western Balkan economies, improve their competitiveness and promote stronger integration among the countries of the region. Sustainable mobility would also enhance regional cooperation, such as projects to deliver cross-border rail networks and other joint green infrastructure investments. EU and Western Balkan decision-makers can kill many birds with one stone by strengthening their formal cooperation on the circular economy and transport.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Europe and Western Balkans

196. Diversification nations: The Gulf way to engage with Africa

Author:
Maddalena Procopio and Corrado Čok
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have longstanding political and security interests in north and east Africa. But the late 2010s saw a “geoeconomic turn” in their foreign policy. This has led the three Gulf states to make inroads into sub-Saharan Africa. Energy and infrastructure are at the heart of this new economic involvement. These sectors serve Gulf interests, but they are also where Africa’s needs are greatest. This is improving the image of Gulf states in Africa. This ties in with a trend among African governments to diversify their own international partners and foster competition among them. The EU and its member states remain influential in Africa, but their involvement is declining. The Gulf expansion in Africa could exacerbate this—unless Europeans find a way to respond.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geoeconomics, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Gulf Nations

197. Transatlantic twilight: European public opinion and the long shadow of Trump

Author:
Jana Puglierin, Arturo Varvelli, and Pawel Zerka
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
ECFR polling reveals the gloom that has fallen over European perceptions of the transatlantic relationship since early November. Respondents are more likely to call the US merely a “necessary partner” rather than an “ally”. But views of Donald Trump’s return vary markedly according to country and political outlook. That, and intra-European differences on both Russia-Ukraine and China, create ample opportunities for Trump to split Europeans. Building a broad coalition of “Euro-optimists” along with more cautious groups can help European leaders resist any such attempts—and even forge a new dawn in transatlantic relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

198. Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics

Author:
Agathe Demarais
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Eight months into the second term of Donald Trump, Europeans are still struggling to craft a coherent response to American geoeconomics policies in the trade, investment and financial spheres. The Trump administration poses massive challenges to Europe. It has imposed tariffs on nearly all US imports from the EU. It is also considering applying pressure on investors to pick sides between the US and China. Finally, it could soon try to engineer a forced depreciation of the dollar against other major currencies like the euro. For the EU, the best response to baffling Trumponomics is to keep calm and carry on. European policymakers should adopt a self-help mindset—resisting the urge to impose retaliatory measures that could damage European economies, avoiding futile fights over US policies that will not change, and above all, holding the bloc together. Europeans should also use this turbulent moment to push through controversial economic reforms. Such policies include deepening the single market to support those EU exporters that will lose market share in the US; leveraging access to the EU market for digital services; boosting innovation financing through regulatory changes; increasing the global role of the euro; and bracing for the coming currency wars. Europe’s ability to implement much-needed reforms will shape the bloc’s economic prospects, global standing and resilience long after Trump leaves the White House.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Investment, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

199. From ore to more: Mineral partnerships for African industrialisation

Author:
Sarah Logan and Theophilus Acheampong
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The future of European energy and military security depends on secure and diversified sources of critical minerals. Currently, however, the EU heavily relies on supply from China—its strategic rival. Direct sourcing from African countries presents an alternative. But after a long history of seeing minerals simply extracted and exported, African governments are keen to keep more stages of mineral processing and manufacturing, known as value addition, on home soil. The EU has signed critical mineral agreements with several African countries, yet progress on local value addition projects has been slow. And while African countries have ambitious agendas to produce consumer goods, EU authorities see Africa’s role as more limited to mineral processing. To help realise their ambitions, African governments are imposing export restrictions on unprocessed minerals. But to make local value addition economically viable and attractive for foreign investment, more on-the-ground reforms and investments are needed. To be better partners, Europeans should make policy adjustments to encourage European participation in African mineral value chains. In a sector crowded with other powers, most notably China, a genuine commitment to supporting local value addition in African partner countries will make the European offer stand out.
Topic:
Partnerships, Mining, Industrialization, Minerals, and Value Addition
Political Geography:
Africa

200. The power of partnerships: European climate leadership with less America

Author:
Susi Dennison and Mats Engström
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Global governance arrangements are under pressure from the climate action withdrawal of the Trump administration and, in many countries, from leaders’ fears of a growing domestic “greenlash”. The EU has adjusted its topline messaging in response, but most governments remain committed to driving the global green transition. Many countries around the world share the same goals as the EU and want to decarbonise their economies while creating jobs and moving up the value chain. However, in an interconnected world, like the EU, they all need partnerships to underpin their own decarbonisation. The EU and member states should heed partner countries’ requests for: greater trade openness to generate demand for low-carbon products made in the global south; share technology more generously; and establish stronger access to finance in pursuit of equitably shared green growth. These partnerships can contribute to alliances for global governance reform in order to futureproof the multilateral framework for climate action in an increasingly transactional world.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Partnerships, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe