Search

Begin New Search Content Type Policy Brief

11401. International: Techno-Stock Troubles

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The current bubble in 'technology stocks' has led to official concern about over-enthusiasm by investors and the banking consequences of a sudden price collapse. The first signs of the long awaited shift emerged last week, as investors shifted from fashionable technology, media and telecoms (TMT) stock back into traditional 'old economy' blue chips. Capital flooding in from Europe and Japan to the United States has been attracted to booming markets led mostly by these stocks. The rest of the market (misleadingly known as the 'old economy') has risen comparatively little.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Europe

11402. United States -- Elian Endgame?

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Attorney General Janet Reno yesterday ordered the Miami-based extended family of Elian Gonzalez to hand him over to his Cuban father. Reno's actions are expected to bring an end to the custody drama surrounding Elian, who was brought to the United States after coastguards found him floating in the Atlantic Ocean after a failed attempt to escape from Cuba with his mother. Although superficially a dispute between the United States and Cuba, argument about the case has centred upon the demands of the Cuban-American community in Florida, a section of the electorate of sufficient importance to oblige Vice-President Al Gore to make his most public break with the administration in which he serves.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and Cuba

11403. International -- Problematic Piracy

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
A recent meeting of Asian countries on how to combat increasingly violent pirates in the region follows landmark prosecutions of those involve, but years of half-hearted action by coastal states. The International Chamber of Commerce has already called on ASEAN trade bloc nations to join China and Japan in signing the 1988 UN Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (the Rome convention). It would allow pirates caught in seas beyond national maritime jurisdictions to be prosecuted as international criminals. However, 14 of the 16 countries at the Japanese-sponsored talks in Singapore last March have yet to sign. Findings will be presented to a high-level international conference between regional maritime security agencies and government shipping bodies in Tokyo this month.
Topic:
Security, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and Singapore

11404. Northern Ireland: Impasse

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Ulster Unionist Council re-elected David Trimble as its leader on Saturday but by an unexpectedly narrow majority of 57% to 43%. The party also voted to retain the name and insignia of the Royal Ulster Constabulary — the predominantly Protestant police force in the province — a precondition, along with an IRA commitment to decommissioning, a precondition for restructuring an all-party executive that was suspended two months ago. These are impractical terms for negotiations. The Good Friday agreement is now functionally defunct.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Europe and Ireland

11405. United States - Election Politics

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George Bush officially secured the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations respectively yesterday. Both candidates have won the nominations exceptionally speedily and the ensuing presidential campaign promises to be one of the longest ever. Providing that the economy continues to perform strongly, Gore should be considered the modest favourite to win November's ballot.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

11406. Asia Pacific -- Reform Politics

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
While the region has now emerged from recession, economic reforms remain incomplete and politically contentious. There is a risk that complacency and intransigence will weaken the momentum behind reforms before their full benefits can be felt. For countries not immediately enveloped by it, the East Asian crisis laid bare the risks associated with postponing economic reform without necessarily producing change.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
East Asia

11407. Northern Ireland--Cooperation Ceasefire

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The IRA announced last night that it was suspending all cooperation with the International Commission on Decommissioning and withdrawing all proposals that it had previously placed before it. Tony Blair, the UK prime minister, and Bertie Ahern, his Irish counterpart, will meet today amid a crisis atmosphere. While there is no immediate prospect of an outright return to violence by the IRA, the Good Friday agreement, if not the peace process itself, is at risk.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and North Ireland

11408. Colombia -- Peace Process

Author:
first last
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The recent advances in the peace process have brought the possibility of a peace settlement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia closer. International mediation and support will be key for the successful completion of the process and the implementation of any peace agreements. The United States has expressed its interest in supporting peace, but considerations will continue to be dominated by anti-drugs and security issues. European cooperation will also be important. Despite the progress made so far, the pacification of the country remains a distant goal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and South America

11409. External versus domestic Vs Coastal versus Interior

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
China's relatively rapid growth cannot mask the fundamental problems the economy faces. The government will be forced to continue to apply stimulus to the economy, but the sustainability of this approach is limited. The positive impact of eventual WTO membership will take time to be felt, while accession–related reforms and increased foreign competition will prove disruptive. The country has a limited time in which to prepare.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China

11410. East Europe—Bullish Markets

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Gone are the days when the large investment banks defined their global reach in terms of the emerging markets of Eastern Europe. Indeed, the emerging markets label is fading away in favour of new 'global' buzzwords. However, just one year on from the emerging market crisis that threatened the bull of the world financial market, is this rethinking of the emerging markets premature?
Topic:
Economics and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

11411. Russia—Duma Dust-up

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Russia's new State Duma ended its first day's work in an uproar on January 18. An unlikely alliance of pro-Communist and pro-Kremlin parties was in control of the chamber's agenda, while an equally improbable alliance of smaller factions vowed not to participate in the running of the chamber until their demands for a greater say were met. This unpromising start presents acting President Vladimir Putin with both a short-term boost and a fresh political challenge. It also highlights one of Boris Yeltsin's more surprising political legacies.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

11412. United Kingdom—Euro Issues

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The formal position of the United Kingdom government that it favours entry into the European single currency 'in principle', but subject to five economic tests and popular sanction in a referendum, masks increasingly deep splits among senior ministers as to what exactly this formula means in terms of practical timing. A profound disagreement between the treasury and the foreign office, personified and led by their respective politicians, exists and is likely to intensify both in the run-up to the next UK election and throughout the next parliamentary term.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

11413. United States—Primary Politics

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Later this month, the US presidential primary season will commence. The opening contests—the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary—provide the best opportunities for either former Democratic senator Bill Bradley or Republican Senator John McCain and Republican Steve Forbes to prevent the present front-runners, Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George Bush, from securing the Democratic and Republican nominations respectively. If Gore or Bush win clear victories in both these early polls, they will be extremely difficult to defeat in later contests. Both of the leading candidates are currently encountering more difficulties in New Hampshire than in Iowa.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

11414. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Author:
Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Growth targets for emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by developing countries should be part of the effort to mitigate global climate change. This policy brief advances an approach for determining appropriate targets. They should be neither so tight as to retard economic development nor so generous as to confer enormous windfall gains. But where in this range should these targets be set? A fair allocation for potential new participants would fit the present pattern of emissions reductions agreed among industrialized countries at Kyoto in December 1997. Richer countries, in effect, agreed to make bigger sacrifices (on average) than did poor ones. Given uncertainty about the future, however, fixing the precise quantitative emission target now would create great risks regarding the ultimate stringency of the target. It would raise concerns that a target could turn out either unexpectedly stringent—unintentionally constraining economic development—or unexpectedly lax—resulting in emissions greater than in the absence of an agreement. Indexing emission targets to a country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth would moderate the effects of uncertainty.
Topic:
International Relations, Emerging Markets, and Environment

11415. The International Financial Architecture

Author:
Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The recent financial crises in many emerging market economies have raised anew questions about the appropriate exchange-rate regime and the use of capital controls as policy instruments. The use of both mechanisms should be tailored to each country's unique circumstances. Fixed exchange-rate mechanisms, such as dollarization (adopting the dollar as legal tender in place of the national currency), are suited to small open economies or those desperate to import monetary stability. Larger economies, such as the European Union (EU) and the United States, should allow their currencies to float. Intermediate regimes that fall between fixed- and floating-rate regimes—such as bands, baskets, and crawls (See Figure 1 for definitions)—are still appropriate for some countries. Certain well-targeted restrictions on the composition of capital flows might be appropriate for some emerging-market countries as temporary measures when inflows are particularly high.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

11416. NATO at 50: The Summit Beyond

Author:
Ivo H. Daalder
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
At the threshold of a new century, NATO needs a new purpose. A NATO maintained solely as a hedge against an uncertain future (including a possibly resurgent Russia) will become increasingly marginal to the interests of its members. A shift in emphasis to defending common global interests risks magnifying discord among Alliance members. Instead, NATO's purpose should now be to extend security and stability to all of Europe. This will require placing more emphasis on the ability to conduct crisis management operations in the region and taking practical, visible steps to keep the door to NATO membership wide open.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

11417. The Case Against Tax Cuts

Author:
William G. Gale and Alan J. Auerbach
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Emerging federal budget surpluses have sparked calls for large-scale tax cuts that would be irresponsible and counterproductive. Surpluses over the next ten years are based on optimistic assumptions regarding revenues and spending. Even if they do materialize, the surpluses will exist only because government accounting obscures the growing cost of future liabilities. The government faces a large, long-term deficit, and tax cuts would make this problem worse. The proposed 10-percent income tax rate cut would provide disproportionately large benefits to wealthy households and little to lower income households. It would have little effect on economic growth, but would impose higher burdens on future generations, and would reduce future budget discipline by violating the budget rules. Moreover, for most families, tax burdens are already at their lowest level in twenty years. Saving the surplus, by paying down public debt, would help the economy much more than would tax cuts.
Topic:
Government and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

11418. The Changing Shape of Government

Author:
Paul C. Light
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The past six years have witnessed the most significant reshaping of the federal workforce in recent history. On the one hand, government clearly has lost weight. The total number of full-time federal employees has declined, as has the number of federal middle-level managers. On the other hand, government has gotten much taller, at least as measured by the number of layers at the very top of the federal hierarchy. This changing shape means that ordinary Americans will be less likely to contact a federal employee when they call a government 800 number, write an office, or use a service. It also means that the nation's elected and appointed leaders will be further from the front lines, and less likely to know what the public is getting for its tax dollars.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States

11419. A Dollarization Blueprint for Argentina

Author:
Steve H. Hanke and Kurt Schuler
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
President Carlos Menem of Argentina has advocated replacing the Argentine peso with the dollar. Dollarization would benefit Argentina because it would eliminate the peso-dollar exchange-rate risk, lower interest rates, and stimulate economic growth.
Topic:
Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

11420. Ballistic Missile Proliferation: Does the Clinton Administration Understand the Threat?

Author:
Ivan Eland and Timothy M. Beard
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Although the end of the Cold War reduced the likelihood of a nuclear exchange between the superpowers, several smaller rogue states, through their dedicated efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, have emerged as potential threats to U.S. national security. National Intelligence Estimate 95-19 stated that no new missile threats to the United States would develop before 2010. However, given the curious circumstances of the estimate's release and the many analytical faults contained in the document, its results have been questioned.
Topic:
Defense Policy and National Security
Political Geography:
United States

11421. Hong Kong Update: Winter 1999-2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Lee Kuan Yew, George Hui, and Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
During my yearly visits to Hong Kong over the last thirty years, I was struck by the upbeat, can-do spirit of its people. However troublesome the situation, such as the noisy demonstrations of the imitators of the Red Guards in 1966 and 1967, or the economic downturn caused by the sudden quadrupling of oil prices in 1973, Hong Kong people were not dismayed or despondent. So when I spent a few days in Hong Kong at the beginning of June this year, I was surprised by its completely different mood. The people I met seemed frustrated at finding themselves in a situation where the solutions were not obvious. Much of the present malaise in Hong Kong arises from the problems of a transition that proved more difficult than expected. In part it was because of the five years of the last governor's policies, aggravated by the Asian financial crisis. Until the territory has come through this transition phase it is not possible to make any long-term forecasts on Hong Kong's future.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel and Hong Kong

11422. Oil For Wheels

Author:
John V. Mitchell
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Current trends in transportation are unsustainable. A struggle for new means of mobility is beginning. Changes are inevitable. There is uncertainty about growth in the supply of fuel for vehicles after 2020. (See Briefing Paper No. 10, Changing Oil, by Norman Selley, forthcoming January 2000).The transport sector will be required to contribute to the reductions in GHG emissions required under the Kyoto Protocol. This will involve going beyond the 20-30% improvements envisaged by current voluntary commitments such as those by the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers in Europe, since such improvements extend trends which are already embedded in 'business as usual' projections.To manufacture clean petroleum fuels to protect urban air quality against increasing volumes of vehicle traffic will require increases in hydrogen inputs which cannot be achieved without significant increases in CO2 emissions (unless restrictions on the expansion of nuclear power are lifted).
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, and Science and Technology

11423. The Southern African Development Community: Regional Integration in Ferment

Author:
David Simon and Alexander Johnston
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Shortly before he became President of the 'new South Africa' in May 1994, Nelson Mandela stressed that his country's relations with the region's poorer and weaker neighbours would be characterized by 'sensitivity and restraint'. This declaration of intent was welcome given South Africa's traditional dominance as the hegemonic power during the apartheid era and the resulting crude and at times violent exploitation of its neighbours' dependence, in varying degree, on the Republic's economy for a wide range of goods and services, for transport links and a market for employment. Indeed, South Africa's accession to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in 1994 offered the promise of a new deal in regional relations, with the new member acting as an 'engine of growth' and as a cooperative and enthusiastic supporter of purposeful and sustained regional integration.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

11424. The Election of Ishihara: A Symbol of Rising Nationalism in Japan?

Author:
Christopher P. Hood
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Ishihara Shintaro, known for his strong views particularly on Japan's relationship with the United States, became Governor of Tokyo on 11 April 1999. This paper considers the significance of his election, and whether it symbolizes a rise in nationalism in Japan.
Topic:
International Relations, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Israel, and Tokyo

11425. Currency Boards or Dollarization — Solutions or Traps

Author:
John Chown
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Currency boards have been suggested for Russia, and adopted elsewhere in eastern Europe. Brazil's fixed rate has had to be abandoned, but Argentina is considering replacing its currency board with dollarization, and suggesting this solution for the rest of Latin America. Fixed exchange-rate regimes (and the crawling peg in Russia) have collapsed in Southeast Asia but Hong Kong, which had a formal currency board, has (so far) survived.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

11426. New Government, New Agenda For Israel

Author:
Joel Peters and Becky Kook
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
On 17 May 1999 Ehud Barak secured a stunning victory in the Israeli elections, defeating incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu with a majority of almost 400,000 and gaining slightly over 56 per cent of all the votes cast. While polls in the days immediately prior to the election had signalled Netanyahu\'s defeat, no one had anticipated such a landslide victory. After three turbulent years of Likud government, Barak\'s election slogan \'Israel wants a change\' clearly captured Israeli public disillusion with Netanyahu, who lost the trust and support of voters throughout the country.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

11427. Can Public Service Survive The Market? Issues For Liberalized Electricity

Author:
Walt Patterson
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
As governments around the world liberalize their electricity systems, they are overturning the guiding principles that have shaped electricity for the past century. Yet they continue to regard electricity as a public service. The consequent inconsistencies and contradictions are already evident, and intensifying. This Briefing Paper outlines the implications. It is based on a research project now under way in the Energy and Environmental Programme, entitled Keeping the Lights On: Public Service in Liberalized Electricity. For details please see the back page.
Topic:
Energy Policy and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

11428. State And Region: The Spanish Experience

Author:
David Bright
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
One of the most interesting consequences of the development of the European Union has been the stimulus it has given in recent years to the rediscovery of region within European states. As the supra-state functions of the European institutions in Brussels have burgeoned and the intrinsic sovereignty of the state in Europe has declined, so regions have acquired an ever greater social and political significance. Of course, in some cases, the state was traditionally federal in nature—as with Germany\'s Länder system—and, politically at least, regional aspirations have been satisfied. In the past two decades, however, regional aspirations have expanded into social and cultural spheres that require a new, defined political context. Even in such long-established states as the United Kingdom, such pressures now have to be acknowledged as sub-state factors enter into the complex array of political elements that go to make up the contemporary Union. In this context the Spanish experience is illuminating, both in the way it demonstrates how such tendencies should be accommodated and in the way in which regional populations respond. It is, in fact, a paradigm for a development that will become inevitable and universal as the power of the state declines within the wider structures of contemporary \'Euroland\'.
Topic:
Government and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

11429. The Buenos Aires Climate Conference:Outcome And Implications

Author:
Christiaan Vrolijk
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The Kyoto Protocol agreed in December 1997 was a landmark, but not an end point. Negotiations are on going to fill in the gaps left in the Protocol. From 2 to 14 November the Conference of Parties met again to follow up on Kyoto in its fourth session (COP-4) in Buenos Aires. After the media hype of the Japan meeting, the lack of news coverage was not entirely deserved. Although discussions had to focus on filling in the details in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, these details will determine just how big a step Kyoto was The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was negotiated at the \'Earth Summit\' in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and has entered into force in 1994. Under the Convention the Parties have committed themselves to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations \'at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system\'. The headline commitment for the countries listed in Annex I of the Convention, the industrialized countries, is to return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels, and to show a reversal in the trend of growing emissions before the year 2000. The Conference of Parties meets annually as the supreme body of the Convention, dealing with various issues related to it. The Kyoto Protocol, negotiated at COP-3 in Japan, is a Protocol to the FCCC, and as such was also on the negotiating table of the COP in Argentina. It sets out renewed, and now legally binding, emission reduction commitments for the Annex B Parties (the industrialized and former COMECON countries). The overall commitments add up to a 5% reduction from 1990 in a basket of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, some industrial gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6) and emissions and removals from land-use change and forestry (LUCF). After its entry into force, the Meeting of Parties (to the Kyoto Protocol) will take over the responsibility for the Protocol issues Many Annex B Parties that have taken up commitments under the Kyoto Protocol stressed the importance at working on the rules for the mechanisms of the Protocol. The EU also stressed the need for limits on the use of these mechanisms and a compliance regime. The G77/China stressed the importance of a debate on the adverse effects and impact of responses. One of the commentators said that Article 17 on international emissions trading \'contains the basic principles, but its main feature is the fact that it can be interpreted to anyone\'s liking\'. Many articles leave room for further work by the COP. Even if the text was not deliberately ambiguous, only general principles were described, so that the 170 Parties at the negotiations could reach agreement, with a later COP to decide on the details of the issue This paper will first briefly discuss the science of climate change and then consider the Buenos Aires Plan of Action and the most important individual issues of the conference.
Topic:
Environment, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China

11430. Conflict In The Horn: Why Eritrea And Ethiopia Are At War

Author:
Martin Plaut and Patrick Gilkes
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In May 1991 the capital of Eritrea, Asmara, fell to the liberation movement that had been fighting for the independence of the territory for the past thirty years. At the same time the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, was captured by forces led by northern rebels from the province of Tigray. It seemed, for a moment, that the long and bloody wars that had racked the region might be at an end. The dual victories were the result of a close cooperation between the two movements that had led these struggles—the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Both had been determined to overcome authoritarian rule from Addis Ababa and had worked closely together to achieve this end. Two years later Eritrea achieved formal independence, recognized by the United Nations, by the Organization of African Unity and—most important of all—by the new rulers in Ethiopia. At the hour of victory relations between the two movements appeared genuinely warm and friendly. Yet just seven years later the divisions could hardly be deeper. Since May 1998 they have been in—or close to—open warfare. Their leaders, who were once close personal friends, are no longer on speaking terms. Tens of thousands of people have been deported or displaced and radio stations blare out vitriolic propaganda against one another. These are complex events that have been further obscured by the contradictory versions of the truth that both sides have advanced.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Migration, Nationalism, Sovereignty, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

11431. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 1999

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.5 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the end of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

11432. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 1999

Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

11433. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 1999

Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators have paused after strong growth early this year. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

11434. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 1999

Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in September. This report merits careful interpretation, but does not change general conclusions drawn from previous releases, which show the economy is in good health: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems must be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics and Health
Political Geography:
United States

11435. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 1999

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of 3.0 percent (annualized) in the 3rd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems do not seem to be a problem yet.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

11436. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 1999

Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising in the 3rd quarter from the 1.8 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 2nd quarter. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems show inconsistent patterns of growth.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

11437. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 1999

Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at a pace of 2.7 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999, compared to the advance estimate of GDP showing a 2.3 percent increase. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems are almost nonexistent.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

11438. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 1999

Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index held steady in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of over 2.5 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through the remainder of 1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

11439. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 1999

Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to activity continuing to rise at the start of the 2nd quarter of 1999, but at a pace that is much more modest than the 4.1 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 1st quarter. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least the 4th quarter of 1999. Evidence of cyclical imbalances from the lagging indicators—that might threaten the stability of the economy—is neither consistent nor convincing.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

11440. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 1999

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.1 percent, and both the coincident and lagging indexes increased 0.2 percent in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators show aggregate economic activity growing at about a 3.25 percent annualized pace in the 1st quarter of 1999 (compared to a 4.5 percent increase in the advance estimate of GDP). The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion for at least six more months. Cyclical imbalances and related conditions are unlikely to jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

11441. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 1999

Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in February. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of about 3 percent (annualized) in the 1st quarter of 1999. The leading indicators show odds are high that the expansion will continue through at least late-1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

11442. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 1999

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show generally healthy conditions: The coincident indicators show that, although industrial production fell slightly, the first quarter of 1999 started on a positive note. The leading indicators are almost unanimous in predicting continued growth through at least the middle of the year. Signs of cyclical imbalances and other factors that might jeopardize the economy's stability remain relatively subdued.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

11443. Accommodating Turkey In ESDP

Author:
Nathalie Tocci and Marc Houben
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Can Turkey's demands for equal treatment with EU member states be reconciled with the EU's demand for autonomous decision capacity? This commentary analyses the Turkish position and assesses the theoretical and practical possibilities for accommodating Turkey's demands in the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP).
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

11444. Five Years To The Euro For The CEE-3?

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In terms of meeting the fiscal Maastricht criteria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are better placed today than were some of the current euro area members from the “Club Med” (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) at a comparable point in time leading up to their joining EMU. The CEE-3 should thus be able to qualify for full membership by early 2006, following a decision by the EU as early as 2005.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, Poland, Hungary, Spain, Italy, and Portugal

11445. Health Not Wealth

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Health, and not wealth, should be the decisive criterion when considering the prospects of the Central and Eastern European candidates for EU membership and the capacity of the EU to enlarge. Viewed from this perspective, the outlook is promising. The CEECs are still very poor, compared to most of the existing EU members, but they are also much more dynamic. Their growth rates are generally expected to remain around 4-5% for the foreseeable future, compared to about 2-3% for the EU. This still implies that full catch-up in terms of GDP per capita will take decades, rather than years, but full catch-up is not the relevant goal if one is concerned about enlargement. Experience in the EU has shown that problems are much more likely to arise from established rich member countries with stagnant economies (Belgium in the 1980s and part of the 1990s) than poor, but more dynamic states (e.g. Portugal and Ireland today). The fact that most of the so-called 'periphery' is now experiencing stronger growth than the 'core' confirms that EU integration benefits poorer countries even more.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Belgium, Portugal, and Ireland

11446. Reinventing The Climate Negotiations: An Analysis of COP6

Author:
Christian Egenhofer and Jan Cornillie
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With the cancellation of the Oslo ministerial mini-summit, the prospects for an early entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol are rapidly fading. Even if the US agrees to an outcome at a resumed COPbis in July, continued Congressional opposition and unresolved questions concerning the developing countries' commitments make US ratification highly implausible.
Topic:
Environment, International Law, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

11447. Effects of the Berlin Summit on Own Resources, Expenditures and EU Net Balances

Author:
Jorge Nuñez Ferrer
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Berlin Summit has been concluded with the suspicious outcome in which every Head of State declares victory. The tone is not so victorious by the Presidency, however, which honestly declared that Germany didn't “win the lottery”. There is reason for suspicion if, after long and arduous discussions to reform policies and reduce EU expenditure, member states declare satisfaction at the result. Something must be amiss, if painful reforms appear not to hurt. In fact, after preliminary calculations and some political considerations, there are grounds to suspect that the reforms proposed are less than satisfactory.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Berlin

11448. A Primer on the Balance Sheet of the Eurosystem

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The ECB has just published the opening balance sheet for the Eurosystem, which is the official name given to the ECB plus the 11 national central banks of the euro zone. All 15 national central banks are part of the ESCB, but the participation of the four outsiders is purely formal. The balance sheet, which is reproduced at the end of this Commentary, reveals two very interesting facts: During 1998, the national central banks of the euro zone increased their holdings of dollar foreign exchange reserves by the equivalent of about 38 bn euro. This means that they de facto intervened consistently to support the dollar during that year. The ECB starts with huge foreign exchange reserves: 237 bn euro plus gold worth 100 bn euro. This is much more than the amount held by the US Federal Reserve and constitutes a major share of the reserves held by all OECD countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

11449. EMU and Labour Markets: Vae Germania?

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The outcome of the first round of wage negotiations in post-EMU Germany sheds some new light on the old question: What impact will the euro have on labour markets and unemployment? Economists would say that it depends on the structure of the bargaining process. In wage-setting, it seems that either one of the two extremes of full centralisation or complete fragmentation is conducive to low inflation and unemployment.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

11450. The First Weeks of the Eurosystem: An Initial Assessment and a Look Forward

Author:
Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With the successful launch of the euro, the start of ESCB monetary policy operations and the operation of Target payment system, the previously national interbank bank markets have been integrated at once in a unified euro interbank market. Outstanding public debt was redenominated in euro, trading conventions harmonised and all EMU stock markets have started quoting in euro. This does not, however, bring us at once to a US-style capital market. Euroland remains profoundly different from the US in the weight of the regions and the importance of banks.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe