Number of results to display per page
Search Results
11202. A New Paradigm For Arab-Israeli Peacemaking: A Comprehensive Regional System For Security and Cooperation
- Author:
- Abraham Tamir
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Over the last two decades, the reliance on separate negotiating tracks in the Arab-Israeli peace process has resulted in a cumulative loss of territories vital for the defense of Israel's very existence, without any corresponding buildup of peace and security for Israel that could last for generations. The military capabilities of Israel's potential adversaries have not diminished, but, in fact, have expanded considerably. The normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world, as stipulated in the peace treaties between Israel, Jordan and Egypt, has not advanced, but, rather, has been held hostage to further Israeli concessions in each of the separate negotiating tracks. Finally, the employment of terrorism and violence by Israel's neighbors became part of the negotiating process with Syria and the PLO.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Egypt
11203. The Emerging Threat of Iraq and the Crisis of Global Security
- Author:
- Richard Butler
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Ten years ago the UN Security Council imposed upon Iraq some very specific requirements for disarmament. After Iraq had been expelled from Kuwait, the Council decided unanimously that Iraq may not have nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons; or missiles which could fly beyond 150 km. The Security Council's decisions were taken with the full authority of international law.
- Topic:
- Security, International Law, Religion, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, and Arabia
11204. The Role of Islam in Contemporary South East Asian Politics
- Author:
- Colin Rubenstein
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- The political influence of Islam is increasing in South East Asia. While the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Communist bloc have contributed to the decline of communism as a revolutionary political force in the region, religious and ethnic issues are now assuming renewed and increasing significance. Religious divisions based on Islam have exacerbated ethnic differences, and some religiously-oriented groups are engaging in violent and extreme acts that pose a potentially serious long-term threat to stability in the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Soviet Union, Arabia, and Southeast Asia
11205. Religion and the Public Square: Attitudes of American Jews in Comparative Perspective - Part Two
- Author:
- Steven M. Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Attitudes toward separation-accommodation are related to support for (or opposition to) the expression of religion in public life. Within each of the three samples, church-state separationists were more likely than accommodationists to oppose expanded religious influence in society and the involvement of churches and church leaders in political affairs. Table 5 contains several relevant questions in this domain.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States
11206. Prime Minister Barak's First Year: Diplomacy and Politics
- Author:
- Zalman Shoval
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Prime Minister Ehud Barak's tenure started out with almost everything going his way. He had what was often, though misleadingly, described as a "landslide victory" in the 1999 elections (though, in truth, Jewish voters gave him only a slim 3.2 percent majority over Netanyahu - compared to the almost 12 percent margin by which Netanyahu had defeated Peres in the previous elections). Nonetheless, it is true that Barak achieved better electoral results than most other prime ministers in Israeli history. As a result, no Israeli prime minister in recent memory had begun his term with a greater degree of goodwill from different segments of the population - including many who had voted for the other candidate.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Diplomacy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
11207. Setting the Terms of Reference: Daniel J. Elazar's Impact on American Jewish Organizational Life
- Author:
- Gerald B. Bubis
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- A giant of the twentieth century left us when Daniel J. Elazar succumbed to an illness on December 2, 1999, at age 65. His career was unique, and much will be written of his multifaceted contributions over the decades to the fields of political science and political theory. While he was known in the world at large for his brilliant theoretical work on the nature of federalism and its applications in government in America and abroad, this analysis looks at the wide-ranging impact of Daniel Elazar on the American Jewish community.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States
11208. Middle East Missile Proliferation, Israeli Missile Defense, and the ABM Treaty Debate
- Author:
- Dore Gold
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- For most of the Cold War period, the spread of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction to the Middle East was severely constrained by the existence of a global regime of arms control agreements and export controls that was chiefly supported by both the U.S. and the Soviet Union. But in the last decade this regime has crumbled: In the Middle East, Iran and Iraq are seeking to build their own indigenous military-industrial infrastructure for the manufacture of intermediate-range (500-5,000 kilometers) missiles, and thus reduce their dependence on imports of whole missile systems, as was the case in the 1970s and 1980s. Intercontinental strategic-range systems are also planned. These efforts are being backed not just by other rogue states, like North Korea, but by no less than Russia itself, which has abandoned the cautiousness toward proliferation that was demonstrated by the former Soviet Union. Despite Washington's efforts to stop these trends through the United Nations monitoring of Iraq and limited sanctions against Iran, the build-up of Middle Eastern missile capabilities has only worsened, especially since 1998 which saw Iran's testing of the 1,300-kilometer-range Shahab-3 and the total collapse of the UN monitoring effort. Iraq has preserved considerable elements of its missile manufacturing infrastructure, continuing to produce short-range missiles, and with large amounts of missile components still unaccounted for. Nor did the administration stop the flow of Russian missile technology to Iran. "The proliferation of medium-range ballistic missiles," CIA Director George Tenet testified on March 21, 2000, "is significantly altering strategic balances in the Middle East and Asia." Clearly, the Middle East is far more dangerous for Israel than it was in 1991 at the end of the Gulf War. While diplomatic energies over the last decade have been focused on the Arab-Israeli peace process, a major policy failure has taken place that has left Israel and the Middle East far less secure. Not only will Israel's vulnerability increase, but on the basis of these planned missile programs, the vulnerability of Europe and the Eastern United States is likely to be far greater in the next five to ten years, as well. Thus, an entirely new strategic situation is emerging in the Middle East requiring far more intense efforts in ballistic missile defense on the part of the states of the Atlantic Alliance in order to assure their own security and enhance Middle Eastern regional stability. With Russia playing such a prominent role in the disintegration of key elements of the proliferation regime, Moscow's objections to robust missile defenses on the basis of the ABM Treaty should not serve as a constraint on the development and deployment of future missile defense systems. The Russian argument that the ABM Treaty is the cornerstone of global arms control rings hollow. The arms control regime for the Middle East has completely broken down and cannot reliably serve as the primary basis for protecting national security in the new strategic environment of this region. The most promising way of assuring the defense of Israel, the U.S., and the Western alliance is through a concerted effort to neutralize the growing missile threat with robust missile defenses, combined with the deterrence capabilities that they already possess.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Soviet Union
11209. The End of the Post-Gulf War Era
- Author:
- Dore Gold
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Three basic conditions prevailed when the Arab-Israeli peace process began in 1991 in Madrid and accelerated in 1993 at Oslo. First, the Soviet Union crumbled and eventually collapsed, removing what had since 1955 been the strategic backbone of the Arab military option against the State of Israel. Second, Iraq was militarily crushed and under both UN sanctions and monitoring, and was therefore removed from the political and military calculus of relations between Israel and the Arab world. Third, Iran was still recovering from its eight-year war with Iraq and was far from ready to have an impact in the Middle East. Together, these three conditions created a unique moment of Pax Americana, maintained not just by virtue of American power, but by the consent of its potential rivals.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, War, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Soviet Union
11210. Overthrowing Saddam Hussein: The Policy Debate
- Author:
- Max Singer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi dictator, has biological weapons capable of killing hundreds of thousands of Israelis with infectious diseases such as anthrax. These weapons could be delivered either by missiles, by small pilotless planes, or by infecting the passengers of a plane landing at Ben-Gurion Airport with less than an ounce of agent spread through the plane's air conditioning system. Saddam also has at least several nuclear weapons that are missing only highly enriched uranium which he is likely to be able either to make himself or to buy this year.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
11211. The Pope's Millennium Visit to Israel
- Author:
- Dan V. Segre
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the 1950s, the French Catholic academician, playwright, and former Ambassador to the U.S., Paul Claudel, asked the cultural attachè of the Israeli Embassy in Paris to convey the following message to Martin Buber: Now that the Jews had recovered their sovereignty, would they consider granting citizenship to Jesus, thereby putting an end to his "statelessness" status both for Judaism and Christianity? This could contribute to the fight against anti-Semitism.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Paris
11212. Anti-Globalization Movements at the Cross-Roads
- Author:
- Raimo Väyrynen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- Although it appears to be growing in strength and numbers, the anti-globalization protest movement is now at a cross-roads. The core of the anti-globalization movement, which is rooted in social justice and human rights, has been unable to control violent fringe groups. Furthermore, international economic agencies such as the World Bank and the IMF have been surprisingly responsive, expanding and accelerating their policies on debt relief and strengthening their focus on the mitigation of poverty. The protest movement thus faces the challenge of developing new instrumental goals for the next phase.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Human Rights, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Washington
11213. The European Union's New Crisis Management Capability
- Author:
- Raimo Väyrynen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- To the surprise of most observers, the European Union is moving quickly toward the establishment of its own crisis management capability. In its June 1999 meeting in Cologne the European Council concluded that the Union must have "the capacity for autonomous action, backed up by credible military force, the means to decide to use them, and a readiness to do so, in order to respond to international crises without prejudice to actions by NATO." The Council pledged to develop an effective EU-led military crisis management capacity in which all EU members, both NATO and non-allied countries, would participate on an equal footing. The new force will perform the so-called Petersberg tasks: humanitarian and rescue operations, peacekeeping, and the use of combat forces in crisis management, including peacemaking.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
11214. Preventing a Nuclear Arms Race in South Asia
- Author:
- David Cortright and Samina Ahmed
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- The United States must unequivocally demand that India and Pakistan join the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as non-nuclear weapon states. The United States should retain punitive sanctions which target Indian and Pakistani institutions and policymakers responsible for their nuclear weapons programs. Targeted incentives should be provided that seek to diminish internal support for nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan. The United States should fulfill its obligation under Article VI of the NPT to achieve global nuclear disarmament.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and South Asia
11215. The Right Role for the IMF in Development
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall, John W. Sewell, and Kevin Morrison
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Horst Köhler faces immense challenges as the new Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But no challenge is more crucial than making sure the IMF plays the right role in developing countries. Too often, it is not playing that role now. The IMF's activities in the developing world have grown radically. Today, much of its work goes beyond macroeconomic issues and crisis prevention and management, into deeper structural issues. And as a major provider of long-term development finance, it is significantly involved in efforts to reduce poverty. But the IMF lacks expertise in the wide-ranging policy and institutional complexities of development and poverty reduction. Its expertise lies in macroeconomic policy and restoring stability amid financial crises. Macroeconomics is the same for poor and rich countries alike, as IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer has said. But much of what the IMF is involved in now is not macroeconomics. The Fund should focus on: short-term liquidity lending to all countries hit by macroeconomic crises; advising through policy dialogue; and collecting, assessing, and distributing information on countries with regard to macroeconomic policy and financial markets. While poor countries need access to the Fund's short-term lending and macroeconomic advice, the IMF should leave long-term development lending to the World Bank and to other lenders and donors expert in poverty reduction.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
- Political Geography:
- United States
11216. Reviewing U.S.-Nigeria Relations: New Links to Reinforce Democracy
- Author:
- Princeton Lyman and Linda Cotton
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- Emerging from 15 years of military rule, the Republic of Nigeria is struggling to build a stable, peaceful democratic nation from its 200 ethnic groups divided among 36 states. In May 1999, retired General Olusegun Obasanjo was elected President-a repeat performance of his earlier role as catalyst for democratic change. In 1979, Obasanjo presided over the only transition to civilian rule until now. His democratic instincts won him three years in jail under former President Sani Abacha's brutally repressive military regime.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Nigeria
11217. Misplaced Charity Undermines Kosovo's Self-Reliance
- Author:
- Iain Guest
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Overseas Development Council
- Abstract:
- For ten years, the international community has sent large, expensive missions to rebuild war-torn societies-without considering their impact on local civil society. At a time when civil society is seen as a pillar of development, this is an alarming omission.
- Topic:
- NATO, Environment, Humanitarian Aid, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo
11218. International — Organic Pollutants
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Delegates from 122 countries recently concluded an international agreement restricting the use of persistent organic pollutants. The agreement marks an important step towards eliminating the use of highly toxic and long-lived chemicals that do not break down easily in the environment. However, the significance of the accord extends well beyond its subject area: negotiators managed to find compromises on several issues that have bedevilled other international environmental agreements.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Environment, and International Cooperation
11219. CIAO: Eastern Europe/EU — Transition Traps
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- There has been a large differential in foreign direct investment receipts between the front-runners in the Central European applicant countries and laggards. The accession process itself has exacerbated this bifurcation, raising questions over EU policy towards the applicants and the implications for the region's long-term stability. Accession prospects appear to induce virtuous cycles for the front-runners while potentially trapping the laggards. Moreover, the latter are faced with difficult choices between long-term EU conditionality and more immediate transition imperatives, which are not always compatible
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
11220. CIAO: Romania — Far-Right Ascendant
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Leftist Ion Iliescu and far-right leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor will contest the second round of the presidential election on December 10. Tudor has a real chance of defeating Iliescu. He came a strong second in the first round, owing to disgust with the outgoing coalition, a popular anti-corruption platform and a shift away from extremist rhetoric. The PRM is an unpredictable, potentially destructive force with links to the Ceausescu era and dubious security circles and, now, the ability to obstruct reforms in parliament. Iliescu's weak credentials on reform and minority questions may hinder his attempts to form a common front against Tudor.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Romania
11221. CIAO: United States — 'Plan Colombia'
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Washington, and Colombia
11222. CIAO: Middle East — Arafat's Ambitions
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
11223. CIAO: Ghana — Vulnerable Economy
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Government spending is increasing in the run-up to general elections next month and attempts to liberalise the cocoa trade appear half-hearted. The effectiveness of liberal economic reforms will be constrained as long as Ghana remains vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of a narrow range of exports. Moreover, anti-corruption measures will lose their bite if they are seen to be directed in part against the government's opponents.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Politics, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
11224. CIAO: International — Organic Pollutants
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Delegates from 122 countries recently concluded an international agreement restricting the use of persistent organic pollutants. The agreement marks an important step towards eliminating the use of highly toxic and long-lived chemicals that do not break down easily in the environment. However, the significance of the accord extends well beyond its subject area: negotiators managed to find compromises on several issues that have bedevilled other international environmental agreements.
- Topic:
- Security and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Russia
11225. CIAO: China — Market Manipulation
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- A leaked Shanghai Stock Exchange report has detailed the extent of trading irregularities within China's domestic equity markets. In the primary market, a series of companies have falsified records on profits, assets and even entire businesses in order to publicly issue and list shares. In the secondary markets, insider trading, the spreading of false information, coordinated stock purchases, price ramping and sales of stocks by large institutional investors are common practice. The extent of trading irregularities reflects the government's preference for market growth over regulatory standardisation. This approach is undermining the CSRC's credibility. Unless regulatory practices are tightened, institutional investors will not have the maturing effect on markets and stabilising impact on prices the government seeks.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China
11226. CIAO: US/China — Trade Relations
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- US Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky and China's Prime Minister Zhu Rongji this month held talks in Beijing to discuss China's accession to the WTO. Beyond opening up commercial opportunities to US firms, the award of permanent normal trade relations status to China, and its prospective accession to the WTO, should in theory add predictability to the bilateral trade relationship.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Beijing
11227. CIAO: Canada — Pre-Election Budget
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Finance Minister Paul Martin announced new tax reductions in his annual economic statement this week. The mini-budget is part of the Liberal government's preparations for a general election that is expected to be called later this week. In order to secure another majority in the House of Commons, the federal Liberals will need to maintain their popularity in Ontario and increase their support in Atlantic Canada. If the Liberals fail to regain their majority, they will probably rely on the support of New Democratic legislators. If this happens, the new government would place less emphasis on tax cuts and debt reduction, and more stress on spending, than would otherwise have been the case.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Canada
11228. Iran — Investor Inhibitions
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week, the Majlis approved a government bill authorising immediate use of the 2000-01 budget surplus. The windfall surplus, largely the result of increased oil revenues, should amount to 6-10 billion dollars by the end of the fiscal year in March. It will certainly transform Iran's external finances, but its impact on the domestic economy will be less immediate, and it will do little to ease investor concerns. Khatami's efforts to attract greater foreign investment depend on reform of the judiciary and other key changes to the regulatory climate. In the meantime, continuing political turmoil will deter all but those investors prepared to take a long-term view of Iran's economic potential.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
11229. Mexico — Overheating Arguments
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The recommendation reflects a conflict between the bank and the finance ministry over whether or not the economy is overheating. Increasingly, the conflict is being fought in public circles after months of low-key clashes. The uncharacteristic rift between the monetary and fiscal authorities is likely to widen over the final two months of the Zedillo administration, as signs of overheating continue to accumulate. While pressure for a substantial fiscal adjustment is likely to be irresistible when Fox takes over on December 1, concerns are growing regarding his capacity to execute such a policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
11230. Nigeria — Rapacious Corruption
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Corruption deters foreign lending and investment. Except in the oil and gas sector, Nigeria's economic advantages are not sufficiently countervailing. The national reputation for corruption encourages further abuse since no one's reputation suffers through acting dishonesty. Despite reforming efforts, grand corruption is likely to persist because of the continuing large flows through official hands of unearned income from natural resources.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
11231. European Union — Sanctions against Austria lifted
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The decision last week to lift political sanctions against Austria came as a relief to both Vienna and most of the fourteen EU member states participating in the action. Imposed in protest at the inclusion in government of the far-right Freedom Party (FPOe), the sanctions had rapidly became a source of difficulty and embarrassment. Crucially, nobody had been clear about what the precise aims were, or in what circumstances the sanctions would be suspended: there was no exit strategy for either side.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Austria, and Vienna
11232. South Africa — Mbeki Leadership
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Although the transition from Nelson Mandela's to Thabo Mbeki's presidency has been marked by continued political stability and conservative economic management, Mbeki's political judgement is increasingly being questioned in several key policy areas. Unless Mbeki succeeds in allaying concerns about his leadership, the stability of South Africa's present political arrangements will be undermined.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
11233. International — Capital Flight
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Not all capital outflows from developing countries should be characterised as capital flight; some are simply the analogues of outward FDI and portfolio diversification in the more advanced economies. Nonetheless, a substantial proportion is classic flight capital, linked to tax evasion or criminal activity, and transferred abroad via misinvoicing and complex financial transactions. Capital flight leads to a significant loss of investment in the most affluent developing countries, and a crippling one in the poorest. However, staunching the flow is likely to prove extremely difficult. It will require greater economic stability and institutional certainty in the source countries, and more rigorous tax enforcement and cooperation in the destination states.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
11234. Russia — Gore Strategy
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Vice-President Al Gore officially accepted the Democratic presidential nomination at the party's National Convention in Los Angeles on August 17. A continued deficit in the polls forced Gore to use the convention as a platform to consolidate his base vote. He also sought to differentiate himself from the Clinton presidency, despite the fact that he has adopted similar positions to the outgoing administration on many key issues. If Gore is to win in November, he must convince voters that the current expansion, and the benign political climate that it has fostered, would be imperilled by a Bush presidency.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
11235. United States — High-Tech Exports
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The White House has loosened export restrictions in a number of high-technology sectors, setting a trend which is likely to be followed by the next administration. Tight export controls on high-tech products have become an expensive luxury that the United States can no longer afford. The liberalisation of remaining controls is therefore set to continue, whatever the partisan composition of the next Congress and the next administration.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
11236. Russia — Intelligence Influence
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The recent increase in arrests on espionage charges and expansion of activity by Russia's security and intelligence agencies appears to be signalling a reversion to aggressive Cold War tactics. They are seeking to increase their political influence and appear to be testing the limits of the 'civilised' intelligence competition which has evolved in the last decade. While Moscow has the means and apparent will to intensify intelligence competition, its clumsy and outdated methods threaten the country's commercial interests and could harm broader foreign policy goals.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Russia
11237. United States — Bush Presidency
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- An analysis of Texas Governor George Bush's record as a modest tax cutter and education policy activist suggests that these issues would probably shape his policy preferences if he were elected president. A Bush White House would probably settle for smaller tax cuts than those the governor is currently proposing. It would also be likely to focus on achieving a series of moderately conservative education and crime reforms.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States
11238. Lebanon — Border Deployment Doubts
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- United Nations peacekeeping forces are expected to deploy to the Lebanese-Israeli international border soon. Considerable diplomatic efforts have been required to win 'acceptance' of the border by Beirut and Tel Aviv, and thereby enable UN deployment to the area from which Israel withdrew nearly two months ago. The United Nations is likely to find it even more difficult to implement the other terms of its mandate.
- Topic:
- Security and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
11239. International -- World Economic Propects
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Official attention has shifted from the need to avert recession towards the problems of managing growth. There is some evidence that higher interest rates have begun to slow the expansion to a more sustainable pace in the Anglo-Saxon economies, but it remains unclear whether the principal central banks have done enough to bring demand growth back into line with sustainable increases in supply. The markets expect any further tightening to be limited, but the current position of the monetary authorities should probably be characterised as a pause in the tightening cycle, rather than the peak.
- Topic:
- Economics and Markets
11240. Mexico — Post-Election Challenges
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- In the initial burst of euphoria that has accompanied the end of virtual one-party rule in Mexico, the magnitude of the challenge facing the incoming government is in danger of being overlooked. For those concerned with furthering democracy, it is enough that former Coca-Cola executive Vicente Fox will become the country's first president from outside the Partido Revolucionario Institutional (PRI) in more than seven decades. Investors, who sent the peso and the Mexico City bourse soaring after Sunday's election, are just happy that a clear winner emerged and that the feared collapse of governability has apparently been avoided.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
11241. United States - Senate Prospects
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This year's Senate elections will be only modestly affected by the outcome of the presidential election. The Republicans currently hold a 55-45 seat advantage in the chamber, a margin that will be extremely difficult for the Democrats to overturn this November. The Democrats will therefore hope to gain three or four seats; a surge which would enable the party to launch a strong challenge to the Senate Republicans in 2002. Although more Republicans are seeking re-election this year, the Democrats are defending four of the five seats in which the incumbent senator is retiring (so-called 'open seats').
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and New York
11242. United States — Economic Propects
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The US economy is experiencing its longest-ever recorded period of sustained growth. The current expansion, which began in March 1991, is the longest of the 32 which have been registered by the Bureau of Economic Analysis since 1854 and is now in its tenth year and 110th month. Moreover, since 1995, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of more than 4.25% -- a rate not experienced since the 1960s. The expansion is consistent with the changing pattern of business cycles, insofar as the average length of economic expansions has nearly doubled from about 2.5 years during 1900-53 to about 5 years in the second half of the century (while the average length of contractions has fallen to less than twelve months). However, even allowing for this transformation, the current expansion seems to be exceptional, both for its duration and its strength. The coincidence of a long and inflation-free expansion with the boom in information and communication technologies (ICT) has sparked a debate about their interdependence.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11243. United States — Presidential Race
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- With the presidential primary season having ended this week, the race for the White House now heads for the party conventions. Since effectively securing the Republican nomination, Texas Governor George Bush has regained his poll lead over the de facto Democratic nominee, Vice-President Al Gore. If Bush retains a clear poll lead by the convention season, the current signs of apprehension amongst Democratic leaders will become more apparent. If Gore can more closely identify himself with the economy's exceptionally strong performance, he is perfectly capable of staging a full recovery and securing victory in November.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
11244. International — WTO Reform
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- WTO members are unlikely to reach agreement on radical changes, at least in the short term. At most they may conclude an accord which reaffirms both the principle of consensus and the need for Green Room meetings, and which gives the director-general a role (possibly informal) in ensuring that efficiency is balanced by other considerations. However, an agreement on institutional changes will have little impact on prospects for launching a new trade round. Such prospects will continue to depend on whether members can develop an agenda that all believe will serve their national interests.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
11245. OECD — Inflation Prospects
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Inflation has begun to accelerate throughout the OECD-area, mainly as a result of higher oil prices. The increase comes from a low base and official forecasts suggest that the price outlook is generally benign. However, a further tightening of monetary policy in order to contain inflation at these low levels is now probably the most important threat to asset market valuations and the continued expansion of the global economy. Product market liberalisation, globalisation and the advent of the internet have brought real and lasting changes in pricing behaviour that will not disappear with a global upturn. These trends have been reinforced by improvements in the operation, credibility and effectiveness of national monetary policies. Nevertheless, historical experience suggests that inflationary pressures could accelerate rapidly as the major economies enter their first period of coincident growth since 1988-90. The result is likely to be tighter monetary policy rather than permanently higher inflation and long-term interest rates.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Canada
11246. Northern Ireland — Ulster Prospects
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The political outlook in Northern Ireland has, at least in the short term, been transformed by the political document released by the British and Irish governments and the subsequent statement issued by the IRA. This involves the exchange of a detailed timetable towards the implementation of the Good Friday agreement — including reform of police and security arrangements in the province — for a commitment from the IRA that at least part of their weaponry can be subject to external inspection. This bargain is likely to be enough to permit devolution to be restored shortly. The Northern Ireland peace process has been at an impasse since the British government suspended the operation of devolved institutions on February 11. It did so because the IRA had offered no clear indication as to how it might initiate the process of arms decommissioning — a situation that left Ulster Unionist leader and First Minister David Trimble extremely exposed in his own party. The narrow margin by which Trimble was re-elected leader by the Ulster Unionist Council in March, and that body's further insistence that the proposed reform of Northern Ireland's police force — the Royal Ulster Constabulary — be diluted before devaluation was restored, appeared to plunge the peace process into a state of permafrost.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and North Ireland
11247. Peru -- Flawed democracy
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Immediately following the first round, US pressure was influential in eliciting the delayed official announcement that Fujimori had failed to secure outright victory, and that he would have to contest a run-off against leading opposition contender Alejandro Toledo. However, from Toledo's point of view, the US pressure is likely to yield only limited benefits. While it may persuade Fujimori to ensure that the organisation of the second round is unimpeachable, or at least not too openly corrupt, it will not of itself end Fujimori's regime. On the contrary, it is likely to boost the Fujimori campaign by allowing the incumbent to appeal to strong nationalist sentiments in the Peruvian electorate.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and South America
11248. International: Techno-Stock Troubles
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The current bubble in 'technology stocks' has led to official concern about over-enthusiasm by investors and the banking consequences of a sudden price collapse. The first signs of the long awaited shift emerged last week, as investors shifted from fashionable technology, media and telecoms (TMT) stock back into traditional 'old economy' blue chips. Capital flooding in from Europe and Japan to the United States has been attracted to booming markets led mostly by these stocks. The rest of the market (misleadingly known as the 'old economy') has risen comparatively little.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Europe
11249. United States -- Elian Endgame?
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Attorney General Janet Reno yesterday ordered the Miami-based extended family of Elian Gonzalez to hand him over to his Cuban father. Reno's actions are expected to bring an end to the custody drama surrounding Elian, who was brought to the United States after coastguards found him floating in the Atlantic Ocean after a failed attempt to escape from Cuba with his mother. Although superficially a dispute between the United States and Cuba, argument about the case has centred upon the demands of the Cuban-American community in Florida, a section of the electorate of sufficient importance to oblige Vice-President Al Gore to make his most public break with the administration in which he serves.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, and Cuba
11250. International -- Problematic Piracy
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- A recent meeting of Asian countries on how to combat increasingly violent pirates in the region follows landmark prosecutions of those involve, but years of half-hearted action by coastal states. The International Chamber of Commerce has already called on ASEAN trade bloc nations to join China and Japan in signing the 1988 UN Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (the Rome convention). It would allow pirates caught in seas beyond national maritime jurisdictions to be prosecuted as international criminals. However, 14 of the 16 countries at the Japanese-sponsored talks in Singapore last March have yet to sign. Findings will be presented to a high-level international conference between regional maritime security agencies and government shipping bodies in Tokyo this month.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and Singapore
11251. Northern Ireland: Impasse
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The Ulster Unionist Council re-elected David Trimble as its leader on Saturday but by an unexpectedly narrow majority of 57% to 43%. The party also voted to retain the name and insignia of the Royal Ulster Constabulary — the predominantly Protestant police force in the province — a precondition, along with an IRA commitment to decommissioning, a precondition for restructuring an all-party executive that was suspended two months ago. These are impractical terms for negotiations. The Good Friday agreement is now functionally defunct.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ireland
11252. United States - Election Politics
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George Bush officially secured the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations respectively yesterday. Both candidates have won the nominations exceptionally speedily and the ensuing presidential campaign promises to be one of the longest ever. Providing that the economy continues to perform strongly, Gore should be considered the modest favourite to win November's ballot.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11253. Asia Pacific -- Reform Politics
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- While the region has now emerged from recession, economic reforms remain incomplete and politically contentious. There is a risk that complacency and intransigence will weaken the momentum behind reforms before their full benefits can be felt. For countries not immediately enveloped by it, the East Asian crisis laid bare the risks associated with postponing economic reform without necessarily producing change.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- East Asia
11254. Northern Ireland--Cooperation Ceasefire
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The IRA announced last night that it was suspending all cooperation with the International Commission on Decommissioning and withdrawing all proposals that it had previously placed before it. Tony Blair, the UK prime minister, and Bertie Ahern, his Irish counterpart, will meet today amid a crisis atmosphere. While there is no immediate prospect of an outright return to violence by the IRA, the Good Friday agreement, if not the peace process itself, is at risk.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and North Ireland
11255. Colombia -- Peace Process
- Author:
- first last
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The recent advances in the peace process have brought the possibility of a peace settlement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia closer. International mediation and support will be key for the successful completion of the process and the implementation of any peace agreements. The United States has expressed its interest in supporting peace, but considerations will continue to be dominated by anti-drugs and security issues. European cooperation will also be important. Despite the progress made so far, the pacification of the country remains a distant goal.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and South America
11256. External versus domestic Vs Coastal versus Interior
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- China's relatively rapid growth cannot mask the fundamental problems the economy faces. The government will be forced to continue to apply stimulus to the economy, but the sustainability of this approach is limited. The positive impact of eventual WTO membership will take time to be felt, while accession–related reforms and increased foreign competition will prove disruptive. The country has a limited time in which to prepare.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
11257. East Europe—Bullish Markets
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Gone are the days when the large investment banks defined their global reach in terms of the emerging markets of Eastern Europe. Indeed, the emerging markets label is fading away in favour of new 'global' buzzwords. However, just one year on from the emerging market crisis that threatened the bull of the world financial market, is this rethinking of the emerging markets premature?
- Topic:
- Economics and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
11258. Russia—Duma Dust-up
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Russia's new State Duma ended its first day's work in an uproar on January 18. An unlikely alliance of pro-Communist and pro-Kremlin parties was in control of the chamber's agenda, while an equally improbable alliance of smaller factions vowed not to participate in the running of the chamber until their demands for a greater say were met. This unpromising start presents acting President Vladimir Putin with both a short-term boost and a fresh political challenge. It also highlights one of Boris Yeltsin's more surprising political legacies.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
11259. United Kingdom—Euro Issues
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The formal position of the United Kingdom government that it favours entry into the European single currency 'in principle', but subject to five economic tests and popular sanction in a referendum, masks increasingly deep splits among senior ministers as to what exactly this formula means in terms of practical timing. A profound disagreement between the treasury and the foreign office, personified and led by their respective politicians, exists and is likely to intensify both in the run-up to the next UK election and throughout the next parliamentary term.
- Topic:
- Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
11260. United States—Primary Politics
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Later this month, the US presidential primary season will commence. The opening contests—the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary—provide the best opportunities for either former Democratic senator Bill Bradley or Republican Senator John McCain and Republican Steve Forbes to prevent the present front-runners, Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George Bush, from securing the Democratic and Republican nominations respectively. If Gore or Bush win clear victories in both these early polls, they will be extremely difficult to defeat in later contests. Both of the leading candidates are currently encountering more difficulties in New Hampshire than in Iowa.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11261. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
- Author:
- Jeffrey A. Frankel
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Growth targets for emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by developing countries should be part of the effort to mitigate global climate change. This policy brief advances an approach for determining appropriate targets. They should be neither so tight as to retard economic development nor so generous as to confer enormous windfall gains. But where in this range should these targets be set? A fair allocation for potential new participants would fit the present pattern of emissions reductions agreed among industrialized countries at Kyoto in December 1997. Richer countries, in effect, agreed to make bigger sacrifices (on average) than did poor ones. Given uncertainty about the future, however, fixing the precise quantitative emission target now would create great risks regarding the ultimate stringency of the target. It would raise concerns that a target could turn out either unexpectedly stringent—unintentionally constraining economic development—or unexpectedly lax—resulting in emissions greater than in the absence of an agreement. Indexing emission targets to a country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth would moderate the effects of uncertainty.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Emerging Markets, and Environment
11262. The International Financial Architecture
- Author:
- Jeffrey A. Frankel
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The recent financial crises in many emerging market economies have raised anew questions about the appropriate exchange-rate regime and the use of capital controls as policy instruments. The use of both mechanisms should be tailored to each country's unique circumstances. Fixed exchange-rate mechanisms, such as dollarization (adopting the dollar as legal tender in place of the national currency), are suited to small open economies or those desperate to import monetary stability. Larger economies, such as the European Union (EU) and the United States, should allow their currencies to float. Intermediate regimes that fall between fixed- and floating-rate regimes—such as bands, baskets, and crawls (See Figure 1 for definitions)—are still appropriate for some countries. Certain well-targeted restrictions on the composition of capital flows might be appropriate for some emerging-market countries as temporary measures when inflows are particularly high.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
11263. NATO at 50: The Summit Beyond
- Author:
- Ivo H. Daalder
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- At the threshold of a new century, NATO needs a new purpose. A NATO maintained solely as a hedge against an uncertain future (including a possibly resurgent Russia) will become increasingly marginal to the interests of its members. A shift in emphasis to defending common global interests risks magnifying discord among Alliance members. Instead, NATO's purpose should now be to extend security and stability to all of Europe. This will require placing more emphasis on the ability to conduct crisis management operations in the region and taking practical, visible steps to keep the door to NATO membership wide open.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
11264. The Case Against Tax Cuts
- Author:
- William G. Gale and Alan J. Auerbach
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Emerging federal budget surpluses have sparked calls for large-scale tax cuts that would be irresponsible and counterproductive. Surpluses over the next ten years are based on optimistic assumptions regarding revenues and spending. Even if they do materialize, the surpluses will exist only because government accounting obscures the growing cost of future liabilities. The government faces a large, long-term deficit, and tax cuts would make this problem worse. The proposed 10-percent income tax rate cut would provide disproportionately large benefits to wealthy households and little to lower income households. It would have little effect on economic growth, but would impose higher burdens on future generations, and would reduce future budget discipline by violating the budget rules. Moreover, for most families, tax burdens are already at their lowest level in twenty years. Saving the surplus, by paying down public debt, would help the economy much more than would tax cuts.
- Topic:
- Government and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
11265. The Changing Shape of Government
- Author:
- Paul C. Light
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The past six years have witnessed the most significant reshaping of the federal workforce in recent history. On the one hand, government clearly has lost weight. The total number of full-time federal employees has declined, as has the number of federal middle-level managers. On the other hand, government has gotten much taller, at least as measured by the number of layers at the very top of the federal hierarchy. This changing shape means that ordinary Americans will be less likely to contact a federal employee when they call a government 800 number, write an office, or use a service. It also means that the nation's elected and appointed leaders will be further from the front lines, and less likely to know what the public is getting for its tax dollars.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
11266. A Dollarization Blueprint for Argentina
- Author:
- Steve H. Hanke and Kurt Schuler
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- President Carlos Menem of Argentina has advocated replacing the Argentine peso with the dollar. Dollarization would benefit Argentina because it would eliminate the peso-dollar exchange-rate risk, lower interest rates, and stimulate economic growth.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Latin America
11267. Ballistic Missile Proliferation: Does the Clinton Administration Understand the Threat?
- Author:
- Ivan Eland and Timothy M. Beard
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Although the end of the Cold War reduced the likelihood of a nuclear exchange between the superpowers, several smaller rogue states, through their dedicated efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, have emerged as potential threats to U.S. national security. National Intelligence Estimate 95-19 stated that no new missile threats to the United States would develop before 2010. However, given the curious circumstances of the estimate's release and the many analytical faults contained in the document, its results have been questioned.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy and National Security
- Political Geography:
- United States
11268. Hong Kong Update: Winter 1999-2000
- Author:
- Frank Ching, Lee Kuan Yew, George Hui, and Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- During my yearly visits to Hong Kong over the last thirty years, I was struck by the upbeat, can-do spirit of its people. However troublesome the situation, such as the noisy demonstrations of the imitators of the Red Guards in 1966 and 1967, or the economic downturn caused by the sudden quadrupling of oil prices in 1973, Hong Kong people were not dismayed or despondent. So when I spent a few days in Hong Kong at the beginning of June this year, I was surprised by its completely different mood. The people I met seemed frustrated at finding themselves in a situation where the solutions were not obvious. Much of the present malaise in Hong Kong arises from the problems of a transition that proved more difficult than expected. In part it was because of the five years of the last governor's policies, aggravated by the Asian financial crisis. Until the territory has come through this transition phase it is not possible to make any long-term forecasts on Hong Kong's future.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Hong Kong
11269. Oil For Wheels
- Author:
- John V. Mitchell
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Current trends in transportation are unsustainable. A struggle for new means of mobility is beginning. Changes are inevitable. There is uncertainty about growth in the supply of fuel for vehicles after 2020. (See Briefing Paper No. 10, Changing Oil, by Norman Selley, forthcoming January 2000).The transport sector will be required to contribute to the reductions in GHG emissions required under the Kyoto Protocol. This will involve going beyond the 20-30% improvements envisaged by current voluntary commitments such as those by the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers in Europe, since such improvements extend trends which are already embedded in 'business as usual' projections.To manufacture clean petroleum fuels to protect urban air quality against increasing volumes of vehicle traffic will require increases in hydrogen inputs which cannot be achieved without significant increases in CO2 emissions (unless restrictions on the expansion of nuclear power are lifted).
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, and Science and Technology
11270. The Southern African Development Community: Regional Integration in Ferment
- Author:
- David Simon and Alexander Johnston
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Shortly before he became President of the 'new South Africa' in May 1994, Nelson Mandela stressed that his country's relations with the region's poorer and weaker neighbours would be characterized by 'sensitivity and restraint'. This declaration of intent was welcome given South Africa's traditional dominance as the hegemonic power during the apartheid era and the resulting crude and at times violent exploitation of its neighbours' dependence, in varying degree, on the Republic's economy for a wide range of goods and services, for transport links and a market for employment. Indeed, South Africa's accession to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in 1994 offered the promise of a new deal in regional relations, with the new member acting as an 'engine of growth' and as a cooperative and enthusiastic supporter of purposeful and sustained regional integration.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Africa
11271. The Election of Ishihara: A Symbol of Rising Nationalism in Japan?
- Author:
- Christopher P. Hood
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Ishihara Shintaro, known for his strong views particularly on Japan's relationship with the United States, became Governor of Tokyo on 11 April 1999. This paper considers the significance of his election, and whether it symbolizes a rise in nationalism in Japan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Israel, and Tokyo
11272. Currency Boards or Dollarization — Solutions or Traps
- Author:
- John Chown
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Currency boards have been suggested for Russia, and adopted elsewhere in eastern Europe. Brazil's fixed rate has had to be abandoned, but Argentina is considering replacing its currency board with dollarization, and suggesting this solution for the rest of Latin America. Fixed exchange-rate regimes (and the crawling peg in Russia) have collapsed in Southeast Asia but Hong Kong, which had a formal currency board, has (so far) survived.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America
11273. New Government, New Agenda For Israel
- Author:
- Joel Peters and Becky Kook
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- On 17 May 1999 Ehud Barak secured a stunning victory in the Israeli elections, defeating incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu with a majority of almost 400,000 and gaining slightly over 56 per cent of all the votes cast. While polls in the days immediately prior to the election had signalled Netanyahu\'s defeat, no one had anticipated such a landslide victory. After three turbulent years of Likud government, Barak\'s election slogan \'Israel wants a change\' clearly captured Israeli public disillusion with Netanyahu, who lost the trust and support of voters throughout the country.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
11274. Can Public Service Survive The Market? Issues For Liberalized Electricity
- Author:
- Walt Patterson
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- As governments around the world liberalize their electricity systems, they are overturning the guiding principles that have shaped electricity for the past century. Yet they continue to regard electricity as a public service. The consequent inconsistencies and contradictions are already evident, and intensifying. This Briefing Paper outlines the implications. It is based on a research project now under way in the Energy and Environmental Programme, entitled Keeping the Lights On: Public Service in Liberalized Electricity. For details please see the back page.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe
11275. State And Region: The Spanish Experience
- Author:
- David Bright
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- One of the most interesting consequences of the development of the European Union has been the stimulus it has given in recent years to the rediscovery of region within European states. As the supra-state functions of the European institutions in Brussels have burgeoned and the intrinsic sovereignty of the state in Europe has declined, so regions have acquired an ever greater social and political significance. Of course, in some cases, the state was traditionally federal in nature—as with Germany\'s Länder system—and, politically at least, regional aspirations have been satisfied. In the past two decades, however, regional aspirations have expanded into social and cultural spheres that require a new, defined political context. Even in such long-established states as the United Kingdom, such pressures now have to be acknowledged as sub-state factors enter into the complex array of political elements that go to make up the contemporary Union. In this context the Spanish experience is illuminating, both in the way it demonstrates how such tendencies should be accommodated and in the way in which regional populations respond. It is, in fact, a paradigm for a development that will become inevitable and universal as the power of the state declines within the wider structures of contemporary \'Euroland\'.
- Topic:
- Government and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
11276. The Buenos Aires Climate Conference:Outcome And Implications
- Author:
- Christiaan Vrolijk
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The Kyoto Protocol agreed in December 1997 was a landmark, but not an end point. Negotiations are on going to fill in the gaps left in the Protocol. From 2 to 14 November the Conference of Parties met again to follow up on Kyoto in its fourth session (COP-4) in Buenos Aires. After the media hype of the Japan meeting, the lack of news coverage was not entirely deserved. Although discussions had to focus on filling in the details in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, these details will determine just how big a step Kyoto was The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was negotiated at the \'Earth Summit\' in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and has entered into force in 1994. Under the Convention the Parties have committed themselves to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations \'at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system\'. The headline commitment for the countries listed in Annex I of the Convention, the industrialized countries, is to return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels, and to show a reversal in the trend of growing emissions before the year 2000. The Conference of Parties meets annually as the supreme body of the Convention, dealing with various issues related to it. The Kyoto Protocol, negotiated at COP-3 in Japan, is a Protocol to the FCCC, and as such was also on the negotiating table of the COP in Argentina. It sets out renewed, and now legally binding, emission reduction commitments for the Annex B Parties (the industrialized and former COMECON countries). The overall commitments add up to a 5% reduction from 1990 in a basket of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, some industrial gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6) and emissions and removals from land-use change and forestry (LUCF). After its entry into force, the Meeting of Parties (to the Kyoto Protocol) will take over the responsibility for the Protocol issues Many Annex B Parties that have taken up commitments under the Kyoto Protocol stressed the importance at working on the rules for the mechanisms of the Protocol. The EU also stressed the need for limits on the use of these mechanisms and a compliance regime. The G77/China stressed the importance of a debate on the adverse effects and impact of responses. One of the commentators said that Article 17 on international emissions trading \'contains the basic principles, but its main feature is the fact that it can be interpreted to anyone\'s liking\'. Many articles leave room for further work by the COP. Even if the text was not deliberately ambiguous, only general principles were described, so that the 170 Parties at the negotiations could reach agreement, with a later COP to decide on the details of the issue This paper will first briefly discuss the science of climate change and then consider the Buenos Aires Plan of Action and the most important individual issues of the conference.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- China
11277. Conflict In The Horn: Why Eritrea And Ethiopia Are At War
- Author:
- Martin Plaut and Patrick Gilkes
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- In May 1991 the capital of Eritrea, Asmara, fell to the liberation movement that had been fighting for the independence of the territory for the past thirty years. At the same time the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, was captured by forces led by northern rebels from the province of Tigray. It seemed, for a moment, that the long and bloody wars that had racked the region might be at an end. The dual victories were the result of a close cooperation between the two movements that had led these struggles—the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Both had been determined to overcome authoritarian rule from Addis Ababa and had worked closely together to achieve this end. Two years later Eritrea achieved formal independence, recognized by the United Nations, by the Organization of African Unity and—most important of all—by the new rulers in Ethiopia. At the hour of victory relations between the two movements appeared genuinely warm and friendly. Yet just seven years later the divisions could hardly be deeper. Since May 1998 they have been in—or close to—open warfare. Their leaders, who were once close personal friends, are no longer on speaking terms. Tens of thousands of people have been deported or displaced and radio stations blare out vitriolic propaganda against one another. These are complex events that have been further obscured by the contradictory versions of the truth that both sides have advanced.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Migration, Nationalism, Sovereignty, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
11278. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 1999
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.5 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the end of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11279. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 1999
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11280. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 1999
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators have paused after strong growth early this year. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11281. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 1999
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in September. This report merits careful interpretation, but does not change general conclusions drawn from previous releases, which show the economy is in good health: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems must be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics and Health
- Political Geography:
- United States
11282. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 1999
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of 3.0 percent (annualized) in the 3rd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems do not seem to be a problem yet.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11283. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 1999
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising in the 3rd quarter from the 1.8 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 2nd quarter. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems show inconsistent patterns of growth.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11284. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 1999
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at a pace of 2.7 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999, compared to the advance estimate of GDP showing a 2.3 percent increase. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems are almost nonexistent.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11285. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 1999
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index held steady in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of over 2.5 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through the remainder of 1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11286. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 1999
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to activity continuing to rise at the start of the 2nd quarter of 1999, but at a pace that is much more modest than the 4.1 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 1st quarter. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least the 4th quarter of 1999. Evidence of cyclical imbalances from the lagging indicators—that might threaten the stability of the economy—is neither consistent nor convincing.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11287. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 1999
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.1 percent, and both the coincident and lagging indexes increased 0.2 percent in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators show aggregate economic activity growing at about a 3.25 percent annualized pace in the 1st quarter of 1999 (compared to a 4.5 percent increase in the advance estimate of GDP). The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion for at least six more months. Cyclical imbalances and related conditions are unlikely to jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11288. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 1999
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in February. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of about 3 percent (annualized) in the 1st quarter of 1999. The leading indicators show odds are high that the expansion will continue through at least late-1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11289. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 1999
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show generally healthy conditions: The coincident indicators show that, although industrial production fell slightly, the first quarter of 1999 started on a positive note. The leading indicators are almost unanimous in predicting continued growth through at least the middle of the year. Signs of cyclical imbalances and other factors that might jeopardize the economy's stability remain relatively subdued.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
11290. Accommodating Turkey In ESDP
- Author:
- Nathalie Tocci and Marc Houben
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Can Turkey's demands for equal treatment with EU member states be reconciled with the EU's demand for autonomous decision capacity? This commentary analyses the Turkish position and assesses the theoretical and practical possibilities for accommodating Turkey's demands in the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP).
- Topic:
- NATO
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
11291. Five Years To The Euro For The CEE-3?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- In terms of meeting the fiscal Maastricht criteria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are better placed today than were some of the current euro area members from the “Club Med” (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) at a comparable point in time leading up to their joining EMU. The CEE-3 should thus be able to qualify for full membership by early 2006, following a decision by the EU as early as 2005.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Greece, Poland, Hungary, Spain, Italy, and Portugal
11292. Health Not Wealth
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Health, and not wealth, should be the decisive criterion when considering the prospects of the Central and Eastern European candidates for EU membership and the capacity of the EU to enlarge. Viewed from this perspective, the outlook is promising. The CEECs are still very poor, compared to most of the existing EU members, but they are also much more dynamic. Their growth rates are generally expected to remain around 4-5% for the foreseeable future, compared to about 2-3% for the EU. This still implies that full catch-up in terms of GDP per capita will take decades, rather than years, but full catch-up is not the relevant goal if one is concerned about enlargement. Experience in the EU has shown that problems are much more likely to arise from established rich member countries with stagnant economies (Belgium in the 1980s and part of the 1990s) than poor, but more dynamic states (e.g. Portugal and Ireland today). The fact that most of the so-called 'periphery' is now experiencing stronger growth than the 'core' confirms that EU integration benefits poorer countries even more.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Belgium, Portugal, and Ireland
11293. Reinventing The Climate Negotiations: An Analysis of COP6
- Author:
- Christian Egenhofer and Jan Cornillie
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- With the cancellation of the Oslo ministerial mini-summit, the prospects for an early entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol are rapidly fading. Even if the US agrees to an outcome at a resumed COPbis in July, continued Congressional opposition and unresolved questions concerning the developing countries' commitments make US ratification highly implausible.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Law, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
11294. Effects of the Berlin Summit on Own Resources, Expenditures and EU Net Balances
- Author:
- Jorge Nuñez Ferrer
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The Berlin Summit has been concluded with the suspicious outcome in which every Head of State declares victory. The tone is not so victorious by the Presidency, however, which honestly declared that Germany didn't “win the lottery”. There is reason for suspicion if, after long and arduous discussions to reform policies and reduce EU expenditure, member states declare satisfaction at the result. Something must be amiss, if painful reforms appear not to hurt. In fact, after preliminary calculations and some political considerations, there are grounds to suspect that the reforms proposed are less than satisfactory.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, and Berlin
11295. A Primer on the Balance Sheet of the Eurosystem
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The ECB has just published the opening balance sheet for the Eurosystem, which is the official name given to the ECB plus the 11 national central banks of the euro zone. All 15 national central banks are part of the ESCB, but the participation of the four outsiders is purely formal. The balance sheet, which is reproduced at the end of this Commentary, reveals two very interesting facts: During 1998, the national central banks of the euro zone increased their holdings of dollar foreign exchange reserves by the equivalent of about 38 bn euro. This means that they de facto intervened consistently to support the dollar during that year. The ECB starts with huge foreign exchange reserves: 237 bn euro plus gold worth 100 bn euro. This is much more than the amount held by the US Federal Reserve and constitutes a major share of the reserves held by all OECD countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
11296. EMU and Labour Markets: Vae Germania?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The outcome of the first round of wage negotiations in post-EMU Germany sheds some new light on the old question: What impact will the euro have on labour markets and unemployment? Economists would say that it depends on the structure of the bargaining process. In wage-setting, it seems that either one of the two extremes of full centralisation or complete fragmentation is conducive to low inflation and unemployment.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
11297. The First Weeks of the Eurosystem: An Initial Assessment and a Look Forward
- Author:
- Karel Lannoo
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- With the successful launch of the euro, the start of ESCB monetary policy operations and the operation of Target payment system, the previously national interbank bank markets have been integrated at once in a unified euro interbank market. Outstanding public debt was redenominated in euro, trading conventions harmonised and all EMU stock markets have started quoting in euro. This does not, however, bring us at once to a US-style capital market. Euroland remains profoundly different from the US in the weight of the regions and the importance of banks.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
11298. Panama Canal Transition: The Final Implementation
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, Jr. Gillespie, Brandon Grove Jr., and David E. McGiffert
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The implications of the transfer of the Panama Canal go well beyond U.S. relations with Panama. This complex transition provides an important lesson for Latin America and the rest of the world on how countries of vastly different size and outlook can work together. The success of this 20 year process lies mainly in first identifying the primary common interest of the United States, Panama and the major canal users: access to an open, safe and efficient canal. Important but secondary concerns, including U.S. military access to facilities in Panama, were addressed during the process but never were allowed to displace the primary interest. By focusing on this clear, compelling key objective, both Panama and the United States were able to accommodate fundamental changes in the political, economic and security context, including several changes in administrations, tough negotiations and even a military confrontation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Latin America
11299. Beyond Kosovo: A Regional Approach to the Balkans
- Author:
- Roger Kirk, Jack M. Seymour Jr., John Lampe, and Louis Sell
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Basic Factors Underlying a Regional Settlement 1. Any overall settlement in the Balkans should be area-wide and coordinated among the entities directly involved, the neighboring states, the key nations of the outside community, and the relevant political and economic international institutions. 2. It will have to include political arrangements, international security guarantees, and substantial economic assistance as a basis for genuine peace and reconciliation. 3. It must embrace generally accepted international standards, including respect for human rights and rights for ethnic minorities; right of return for all area refugees; rule of law; effective media freedom; and free elections supervised or, where necessary, organized by the international community. 4. The settlement should promote and institutionalize political and economic cooperation, regional trade and/or formal ties among the participating states and entities of the former Yugoslavia, and neighboring states as feasible, including the free flow of goods, labor and capital. 5. International assistance in reconstruction, economic reform and development of economic ties among the peoples of the region and with the European Community must be massive. It should, however, be designed to promote democratic institutions, market reform, adherence to peace agreements, and respect for human rights. 6. Such assistance should target the private sector, encourage local initiatives, and help governments pursue effective economic reform policies. It should seek to curtail corruption and the maintenance of unprofitable state industries. It should avoid encouraging international dependency. The purpose should be to build societies and practices conducive to self-reliance, international cooperation, and outside investment. Positive and negative lessons can be drawn from experiences in Bosnia. 7. The support of the broad population of Serbia will be necessary if peaceful and economically viable regional arrangements are to last. The reconstruction process implied in these arrangements will itself be an incentive for the Serbs to opt away from destructive nationalist policies and join in the regional reconstruction process. 8. Neither lasting peace in the Balkans nor democracy in Serbia can be achieved as long as Slobodan Milosevic remains in power. He has been indicted by the Tribunal in The Hague for crimes against humanity and his removal from power is a prime NATO objective. There are increasing and encouraging signs of popular Serb desire to be rid of Milosevic, but it is not certain that he will depart in the near future. 9. A regional settlement may have to be negotiated indirectly with, or imposed upon, Milosevic as the ruler of Serbia. It should nevertheless be made clear that the West condemns Milosevic\'s actions, that Serbia cannot resume its rightful place in Europe as long as it is governed by indicted war criminals, and that the West will help the people of Serbia in their efforts to bring forth new, democratic, cosmopolitan leadership in their country. 10. The Kosovar Albanians cannot be expected to live under Serbian control again for the foreseeable future. Arrangements short of formal independence such as an international protectorate or trusteeship are possible, indeed likely, for a transitional period. A more permanent and self-sustaining arrangement is highly desirable if it can be achieved without creating more instability in the former Yugoslav space and the neighboring area. 11. A credible international military presence is needed to encourage the return of the remaining Albanian-Kosovars, the continued residence of Serb-Kosovars and to maintain peace and order within Kosovo and on its borders. Such a presence will also be a lasting part of any transitional arrangement. Any foreseeable regional settlement will similarly require a prolonged foreign military presence. This settlement should, however, lay the foundation for an end to that presence by, among other things, providing for supervised demilitarization of the states and entities involved, and a comprehensive regional arms control agreement. 12. A central objective of any regional settlement should be to promote conditions that will encourage a stable political and military environment, economic growth, and increasing self-reliance. These changes will permit an end to the foreign military, political, and economic presence in the region, though no date for that termination should be set.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Kosovo, and Balkans
11300. Building an Asia-Pacific Security Community: The Role of Nuclear Weapons
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, James E. Goodby, Tomohisha Sakanaka, W. Neal Anderson, Tomohide Murai, and Shinichi Ogawa
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The main challenge for Asia is to build a security community that transforms a legacy of military competition into security cooperation. This transformation will be difficult because of the high level of distrust among the states and considerable uncertainty about future relations. Asia lacks the kinds of developed, institutionalized multilateral security arrangements that contribute to transparency, confidence-building and long-term stability. Furthermore, a “ business as usual ” approach that focuses on managing bilateral relationships is unlikely to result in a security community. More attention needs to be devoted to multilateral security efforts. Without the reassurance of a network of cooperative arrangements, including verifiable arms limitations, potential adversaries may place their hopes in achieving unilateral military advantages. Such efforts could foster fears of regional domination and, in turn, a potential arms race that includes nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
- Topic:
- Security and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia