Content Type: Policy Brief / Topic: Financial Crisis

1. Cash Cabal: How Hezbollah Profits from Lebanon's Financial Crisis

Author:: Samara Azzi and Hanin Ghaddar
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In March 2020, Lebanon opted for a “hard default” on $32 billion in sovereign debt, allowing the government to avoid negotiating with its Eurobond holders and investors. Beirut thereafter showed little interest in addressing the consequences of default, and the country’s economic meltdown worsened. As usual, the Lebanese people were the casualties, suffering amid what the World Bank has called a “deliberate depression.” This official negligence has cleared the way for a proliferating cash economy—which in turn has spawned a currency exchange scheme involving the central bank, foreign exchange agents, and Lebanese politicians. Hezbollah specifically has profited in areas ranging from real estate to solar energy, pharmaceuticals, and the illicit Captagon trade. In this Policy Note, authors Samara Azzi and Hanin Ghaddar—a venture capitalist and a former Lebanese journalist—skillfully diagram the corrupt status quo and explain why entrenched actors want to avoid systemic change. But as the study makes clear, the future health of the Lebanese economy requires an overhaul, and the international community must now press for deep reforms and personal accountability.
Topic:: Politics, Non State Actors, Financial Crisis, Economy, Hezbollah, and Shia Islam
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

2. Boom-bust Cycles Revisited: The Role of Credit Supply

Author:: Hyo Sang Kim, Sangyup Choi, and Yuri Kim
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study investigates the impacts of credit supply on economic growth and financial crisis. Excess credit supply can make the economy and financial markets more vulnerable. While credit supply can drive economic growth by reallocating resources, it can also make the economy and financial markets more fragile. Asset prices sharply fall when deleveraging occurs in the case of a negative shock to the financial or real sector in a system where credit is excessively supplied. Furthermore, economic activity might be substantially reduced, extending the length and breadth of the recession.
Topic:: Markets, Financial Crisis, Economy, Economic Growth, and Credit
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3. Fiscal resiliency in a deeply uncertain world: The role of semiautonomous discretion

Author:: Peter R. Orszag, Robert E. Rubin, and Joseph E. Stiglitz
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Orszag, Rubin, and Stiglitz outline a new fiscal framework that they argue would better equip policymakers to face deep uncertainties about future interest rates (which, they say, may not remain low forever), hard-to-predict global shocks, and climate risks. They reject fiscal anchors—simple limits on deficits or debt as a share of GDP that governments adopt to check their spending and borrowing—that have historically guided fiscal policy and believe any attempts to modify such targets for the current period of low interest rates are likely to fail. Instead they propose making the budget respond more automatically to economic distress (through stronger automatic stabilizers) and to long-term fiscal pressures (e.g., embedding adjustment mechanisms in health care and pension programs), as well as creating an infrastructure program and extending debt maturities to insure against interest rate changes. Such a "streamlined dashboard" would then allow policymakers to use discretion as necessary to take any additional actions—either to provide more stimulus during short-term difficulties or to adjust the automatic features themselves—rather than adhering to fiscal targets that may no longer be appropriate when economic conditions change.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and Fiscal Deficit
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4. Startups in the United States during the pandemic reflect some dynamism amid job losses

Author:: Simeon Djankov and Eva (Yiwen) Zhang
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: New business applications have surged in the United States since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The growth is driven largely by startups in online retail, transportation, and personal services. Many of these new entrepreneurs are self-employed and were likely laid off and forced into entrepreneurship by necessity. No official data are available yet on the number of businesses destroyed in 2020, because business data for firms that close without entering bankruptcy are lagging. But the authors calculate that firm births may have surpassed firm deaths during the pandemic. While this boom in business entry is a tribute to the adaptability and potential innovative spirit in US capitalism, one should not be overly optimistic about jobs created in this wave of startups. As many of these new startups are by people forced to strike out on their own, the number of jobs created per new firm is even smaller than it was during previous US recessions. And like online businesses started around the last recession (e.g., Uber, Airbnb, and Venmo), some of these new firms may turn out to be major contenders in their sectors, displacing workers employed by their traditional rivals.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

5. China’s FDI in Europe and Europe’s Policy Response

Author:: Pyoung Seob Yang, Cheol-Won Lee, Suyeob Na, Taehyn Oh, Young Sun Kim, Hyung Jun Yoon, and Yoo-Duk Ga
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: China’s investment in the European Union (EU) increased significantly during the European financial crisis, but has been on the decline in recent years. The surge of Chinese investment has raised concerns and demands for analysis on the negative effects it could have on the EU companies and industries. In this context, the present study aims to analyze the main characteristics of Chinese investment and M&A in Europe, major policy issues between the two sides, the EU’s policy responses, and prospects of Chinese future investment in Eu-rope, going on to draw important lessons for Korea. To summarize the main characteristics of China's investment in Europe, the study found that the EU's share of China's overseas direct investment has continued to increase until recently. Second, investment in the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) is gradually increasing, although it is still insignificant compared to the top five destinations in the EU: Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Luxembourg and France. Third, China's investment in the EU is being made in pursuit of innovation in manufacturing and to acquire high-tech technologies. When it comes to China's M&A in Europe, the study found that the proportion of indirect China's M&As (via third countries (e.g. Hong Kong) or Chinese subsidiaries already established in Europe) was relatively higher than direct ones. Empirical factor analysis of investment also shows that China's investment in the EU is strongly motivated by the pursuit of strategic assets. Other factors such as institutional-level and regulatory variables are found to have no significant impact, or have an effect contrary to expectations. This suggests that China's investment in the EU is based on the Chinese government's growth strategy, and accompanies an element of national capitalism Today, It is highly expected that the COVID-19 pandemic will have a reorganizing effect on the global value chain (GVC) and Foreign investment regulation in the high-tech sector motivated by national security is emerging as a global issue as the US and the EU are tightening their control. As Korean companies are not free from the risk of falling under such regulations, a thorough and careful response is required. And for the Korean government, it is necessary to prepare legal and institutional measures regulating foreign investment in reference to the US and the EU.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Crisis, European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, Korea, and United States of America

6. Regional Financial Cooperation in East Asia from a New Perspective

Author:: Sungbae An and Subin Kim
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Following the Asian financial crisis of 1998, there was a need to improve regional financial cooperation, including liquidity support. The Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (hereinafter, CMIM) and the Asian Bond Market Initiative (hereafter, ABMI) are two of the outcomes, but it is difficult to find countries that are actively using these mechanisms. Against this backdrop, we will first examine the limitations of existing systems and propose ways to overcome those limitations, as well as new ways to strengthen East Asian financial cooperation. We suggest three ways to strengthen financial coopera-tion in East Asia from a new perspective: 1) monetary cooperation through Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) 2) establishment of development financial institution in Northeast Asia 3) financial cooperation with Central Asia and Mongolia. Of course, more precise planning is required to implement these alternatives, and it is also recognized that the topics covered in this study represent only a subset of regional financial and monetary cooperation. However, by overcoming the limitations thus far, it is hoped that it can be a contribution that provides at least a glimmer of thought, which can hopefully become more concrete in future studies.
Topic:: Development, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Finance
Political Geography:: Central Asia and East Asia

7. It’s Time for a New Deal

Author:: Constantine Michalopoulos
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The prospects of the Greek economy are mostly good with growth continuing for the fourth straight year. But there is a sense of disappointment, as the recovery has not been very strong and pre-crisis income levels will not be regained for another decade. There are two main reasons for the sluggish recovery: The European creditors have imposed on Greece the requirement to run a primary budget surplus of 3.5% of GDP for five years to ensure that they get repaid—a requirement that constricts growth of the Greek private sector—through heavy taxation of consumers and business. And domestic investment is sluggish, although there are plenty of unutilized resources, such as those provided by the European Structural Funds. There is a need for a new deal with the European Institutions: the Europeans should be more relaxed about getting repaid because of Greece’s much improved access to the European capital markets and be willing to accept a Greek government commitment to a significantly lower primary budget surplus for the next several years. In exchange the Greek government should commit to a commensurate increase in domestic investment through reforms of the banking sector as well as greater public sector investment spending.
Topic:: Government, Financial Crisis, Economy, Economic Growth, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

8. Financing the United Nations Secretariat: Resolving the UN’s Liquidity Crisis

Author:: Wasim Mir
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The UN is currently facing its most challenging financial situation in nearly two decades. Despite taking emergency measures to reduce spending, the UN Secretariat’s severe liquidity problems have been getting progressively worse, to the point where they are starting to affect the UN’s ability to carry out its mandates. The main cause of this crisis is the late payment and nonpayment of member-state contributions. This issue brief breaks down the reasons why certain member states have not been paying in full or on time, which include the withholding of payments to express concerns about specific UN activities and domestic financial difficulties. It then considers the proposals the secretary-general has put forward to address the crisis: replenishing the existing reserves, incentivizing member states to make timelier payments by invoking Article 19 of the UN Charter sooner, and limiting the General Assembly’s use of creative measures to reduce spending. Since these proposals currently have little backing from member states, the paper also suggests looking at alternative approaches, including allowing the UN Secretariat to borrow commercially or pool cash balances. As the domestic dynamics that lead to late payment and nonpayment will not change quickly, the paper urges member states not to ignore the issue and hope that it will resolve itself. They need to urgently consider what measures could help mitigate the crisis as soon as possible.
Topic:: United Nations, Financial Crisis, and Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9. When more delivers less: Comparing the US and French COVID-19 crisis responses

Author:: Jérémie Cohen-Setton and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The US package of measures to help households hit by the economic shock from the COVID-19 crisis, including the Paycheck Protection Program, is almost twice as large in proportion of GDP as the French package, but it has proven less effective in curbing unemployment because of poor design and implementation. In contrast, the increase in the unemployment rate in France has been five times less than the increase in the United States. Cohen-Setton and Pisani-Ferry dive beneath the unreliable headline numbers to assess the effectiveness of government support provided to households in March–May 2020 in the two countries. They conclude that the French approach (mirrored in some other European countries) delivered a bigger bang for the buck. But the fact that the US approach has fallen short should not diminish the significance of the policy shift signaled by the enactment of measures to maintain household income.
Topic:: Education, Financial Crisis, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, France, North America, and United States of America

10. A possible IMF Pandemic Support Facility for emerging-market countries

Author:: Matthew Fisher and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adapts its strategy to meet the challenges of the COVID-19 crisis, it should develop a new temporary lending instrument to assist emerging-market countries facing pandemic-related fiscal and balance of payments difficulties. A dedicated IMF Pandemic Support Facility would help meet the exceptional financing needs of emerging-market countries at a time of high uncertainty while providing more lenient repayment periods and also allow the Fund to be more flexible in its operations with minimum disruptions to its existing facilities.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11. Lebanon's monetary meltdown tests the limits of central banking

Author:: Patrick Honohan and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Lebanon has spent the last 20 years juggling an excessive level of debt and current account deficits. Apparent financial wizardry by the central bank (Banque du Liban) helped keep the exchange rate fixed, inflation low, and debt service flowing until 2020. But these efforts merely postponed the inevitable, at a high cost. Repeated shocks to the Lebanese economy and governance weaknesses pushed the financial contraption over the cliff before the COVID-19 outbreak. The explosion that ripped through the Port of Beirut in early August added to the disarray. The Lebanese pound has crashed, the government has defaulted on some of its debt, and restrictions have been placed on deposit withdrawals and access to foreign exchange. Lebanon faces an uncertain future of uneven suffering. It will need foreign assistance, but such assistance will not extend to covering the losses of the banking system. How the losses are distributed will set the scene for Lebanon’s future development. Policymakers should aim for fairness, predictability, and stability without overindebtedness.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Central Bank, and Banking
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

12. Sovereign debt relief in the global pandemic: Lessons from the 1980s

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic and an unprecedented global recession have triggered fears of a debt crisis requiring massive intervention by international financial institutions as well as debt restructuring by private and official creditors. Truman draws two lessons for the current crisis, based on his ring-side experience during the debt crises of the 1980s. First, the initiation of debt relief will require a broad consensus among four groups: the borrowing countries, their foreign creditors, the authorities of the countries in which those creditors are located, and international institutions. Reaching consensus takes time. Second, implementation of the consensus framework will be case by case, because of differences in the political and economic circumstances of each country, which will militate against simple replication for different countries and against implementation all at the same time. Any framework will not be self-implementing. While the call for rapid action is understandable, applying a one-size-fits-all approach will not be possible.
Topic:: Debt, Emerging Markets, History, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, World Bank, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. Creation of a European Solidarity Funds: Directing Europeans’ savings towards their growth companies

Author:: Emmanuel Sales
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Europe has an excess of savings and its companies lack equity capital. This diagnosis was made a long time ago and the crises the continent has been going through over the last 10 years have accentuated this gap. European growth companies are rapidly falling prey to large non-European firms that benefit from a deep and liquid stock market. Thus, despite the existing arrangements, Europe is unable to impose world champions that would allow it to build its sovereignty against the United States and China. The creation of a new category of UCITS funds open to all EU savers, the European Sovereign Funds, would help us respond to this challenge by providing medium-sized companies with the fresh capital they need to ensure their development and independence.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, European Union, Economic Growth, and Capital
Political Geography:: Europe

14. Hezbollah Prioritizes Its Own Interests, Putting Lebanon at Risk

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As demonstrators rail against economic problems, corruption, and sectarianism, the group’s role in undermining the public’s financial and physical security is coming under greater scrutiny. Lebanese citizens took to the streets this weekend to protest the country’s acute financial crisis, which has been marked by one of the highest debt ratios in the world, a new currency crisis, and fears that a strike will close gas stations indefinitely. Many believe that deep-rooted corruption and sectarianism got them into this mess, and may now complicate efforts to get them out. Against this backdrop, more criticism is being directed at Hezbollah, the widely designated terrorist organization that is simultaneously the most powerful party in Lebanon’s government and an aggressively sectarian movement that keeps its activities and weapons outside the government’s control. As the Treasury Department recently noted, developments over the past few weeks have underscored the extent to which the group’s actions “prioritize its interests, and those of its chief sponsor, Iran, over the welfare of Lebanese citizens and Lebanon’s economy.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Corruption, Financial Crisis, Protests, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

15. Iran Has a Slow Motion Banking Crisis

Author:: Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Suffering under Western sanctions and security challenges, Iran faces problems as well from its fragile banking system, which has been languishing for decades. Liquidity and solvency weaknesses pose a growing risk to the country’s financial stability. The sanctions reimposed by the United States in 2018 have heightened these vulnerabilities, but the problems also result from the heavy-handed role of the state, corruption, and the Central Bank of Iran’s failure to regulate and supervise the system. Iran’s ability to avoid a run on its banks is aided by their reliance on liquidity assistance, deposit insurance, and regulatory forbearance from the central bank. Depositors are forced to be patient because they have limited options to invest elsewhere. Iran has thus avoided a full-blown banking crisis. But the situation is not sustainable. Banks remain susceptible to external shocks, which could come from a complete halt to oil exports or war.
Topic:: Security, Financial Crisis, Sanctions, Banks, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

16. Keeping Up with the Future: Upgrading Forecasts of Political Instability and Geopolitical Risk

Author:: Cullen S. Hendrix and Sooyeon Kang
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The nature and magnitude of geopolitical risk is changing more rapidly than the ability to anticipate it, with increasingly severe economic consequences. This Policy Brief discusses the economic costs and risks associated with episodes of political instability, arguing that firms, government agencies, and international institutions must update their forecasting and risk assessment efforts to take global factors into account. Since the global financial crisis, political instability has shifted from emerging-market countries in the developing world to larger, more globally impactful econo¬mies. Acknowledging this changing risk profile—and developing better tools to predict major episodes of instability—will allow both policymakers and firms to plan with greater confidence.
Topic:: Economics, Financial Crisis, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Risk
Political Geography:: Global Focus

17. Global Forums: Are They Must or Waste for the Global Governance?

Author:: Gülen Derya Zayim
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: The age of globalization has brought about interdependency between the nation-states in all aspects of life while uncovering challenges for the sovereignty of the nations. Therefore, how an integrated world system involving multiple actors can efficiently be governed remain a subject of serious discussions. This study briefly explains the historical background of G7/8 along with its evolution to G20 and discusses their effectiveness and legitimacy in the context of global governance. It is worthy to discuss the issue since these global forums’ legitimacy and effectiveness subject to both critics and praises. Although the lessons from the global financial crisis consolidates the idea of global coherence, integrity and compliance, diverging political and economic conflict of interest of nations still make the international forums’ existence and future position in global governance open to discussions. Additionally, the last part of the study draws conclusion about Turkey and its place in global governance.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Financial Crisis, Governance, and G20
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Global Focus, and Mediterranean

18. Economic Distress and the Inevitability of an Economic Recovery Programme

Author:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: Zambia is emerging from a major economic downturn. The copper price collapse, electricity shortages, huge fall in the value of the Kwacha and high inflation in 2015 left the economy stalling. Growth in 2015 was 2.9% and possibly 3.4% in 2016, significantly below the long-term average rate of 6.9%. The downturn was compounded by a tightening of monetary policy which made it harder for businesses to borrow, and by a continuation of expansionary fiscal policies which increased the budget deficit and Government debt. Because the scale of the challenge was so significant, the Government announced it would launch Zambia Plus, a home-grown recovery programme to put the economy back on track. A credible recovery programme will be essential to instill fiscal discipline, create conditions for growth, and support poverty reduction. A failure to the programme will result in significant adverse consequences for the economy and Zambian households. Without Zambia Plus, the budget deficit (measured as a percentage of GDP) is likely to continue performing worse than the authorities’ targets. Thus, the overall debt level will keep growing, possibly reaching an average of 58.6% of GDP over 2017-2021, up from an average of 23.3% over 2007-2014. More debt will mean a bigger budget taken to meet debt servicing obligations. For instance, in 2017 alone the Government allocated almost ¼ of the budget to debt servicing and arrears payments. This is the equivalent of over K15 billion that could otherwise be spent on tackling poverty or supporting growth. The current path is unsustainable, and the consequences of failing to act are likely to be felt hardest by the poor, who already bear the brunt. Analysis of the 2015 Budget reveals that when the economic downturn set in the most significant underspends were on social cash transfers, the economic empowerment fund and the public service pension fund. So, the absence of Zambia Plus will do bigger and longer lasting damage to the lives of poor Zambians than will the few challenges of the programme.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Economy, and Public Debt
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

19. Great Expectations: Is the IMF Turning Words into Action on Inequality?

Author:: Nadia Daar, Nicholas Galasso, and Chiara Mariotti
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In recent years, the International Monetary Fund has become a global leader in highlighting the inequality crisis; consistently identifying it as a major threat to human progress and prosperity. This is a significant shift from its previously held position that rising inequality was a necessary trade-off for achieving greater economic growth. What is the IMF doing in practice to operationalize its agenda for tackling inequality? The IMF’s main initiative has been a series of pilots that integrate inequality analysis into its economic surveillance of countries. This paper outlines Oxfam’s evaluation of these pilots and finds that they are not promoting policies that reduce inequality. It gives recommendations for the IMF to systematically incorporate the fight against inequality into its research and its actions on the ground
Topic:: International Cooperation, Financial Crisis, Inequality, and IMF
Political Geography:: Global Focus

20. Assessing the Governance Practices of Sustainability Reporting

Author:: Jason Thistlethwaite and Melissa Menzies
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: To promote climate change risk mitigation in financial markets, the Financial Stability Board recently proposed the creation of a Climate Disclosure Task Force, coordinated through the G20, to develop standards for companies to disclose their exposure to climate change risks. With more than 400 existing disclosure schemes, this task will be challenging. This brief identifies the key categories of governance practices that must be addressed, how these divergent practices challenge end-users, and how the establishment of criteria that define effective and efficient reporting is a critical first step for the Climate Disclosure Task Force.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

21. Does the Level of Public Debt Matter?

Author:: Susan Schadler
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Research on links between the level of a country’s public debt and its broader economic developments has been heatedly debated in the economic literature. Two strands of the research stand out — one linking the level of debt to a country’s GDP growth rate and the other examining the debt level as an EWI of economic crises. As a broad generalization, research at the moment favors the view that high levels of debt are not a cause, in and of themselves, of low growth nor are they particularly good predictors of impending economic or even debt crises. In principle, the empirical findings have obvious implications for policy makers confronting the question of how to fashion policies (and fiscal policy in particular) when a country has a high debt burden. The IMF, as both a contributor to the literature and an adviser concerned with preventing or dealing with debt crises, has a particularly important stake in navigating the findings. Whether in its surveillance (routine annual advice to all member countries) or the construction of its lending programs to support countries in or near crisis, the IMF must answer the question “how much does the level of debt matter?” Despite the empirical research that casts doubt on the importance of debt, the level of debt figures prominently in the algebra of debt sustainability and the IMF’s real world policy advice. This policy brief examines the nexus of the relatively strong conclusions coming from the academic research and the IMF’s policy advice. It addresses the following question: given that the broad conclusion from the academic literature is that the level of debt itself is not systematically bad for growth or stability, why does the debt level seem to figure rather prominently in the IMF’s policy advice and conditionality?
Topic:: Debt, Development, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, GDP, and Global Markets
Political Geography:: Global Focus

22. Brazil’s Perception of the Visegrad Group: Not a Strategic but a Prospective Partnership

Author:: Carolina Salgado and Marek Wasinski
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Visegrad Group is still a new label among policy makers as well as public and private investors, scholars and media in Brazil. However, since their accession to the EU in 2004, and the financial crisis that started in 2008, the four Central European countries in this group have started to look beyond Europe in order to formulate their economic and political agenda, aiming to boost partnerships, for example among the biggest South American countries such as Brazil. V4 and Brazil should build momentum to deepen cooperation in the most promising prospective areas such as trade, military, tourism and education.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Brazil

23. Afghanistan's Continuing Fiscal Crisis: No End In Sight

Author:: William A. Byrd
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: For several years, Afghanistan’s economy and public finances have worsened, culminating in a full-blown fiscal crisis in 2014. Political uncertainties, the weakening Afghan economy, corruption in tax collection, stagnant government revenues, and increasing expenditures have contributed to the current fiscal impasse. In the absence of bold actions by the Afghan government along with proactive international support to turn around the fiscal situation, the fiscal crisis and its insidious effects will continue.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

24. Service Sector Reform in China

Author:: Ryan Rutkowski
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Faced with slowing economic growth, Chinese policymakers now recognize that the service sector of the economy—transportation, communications, finance, and health care—could spur economic activity and employment. The catch is that China must reform these and other areas to accomplish this goal. Chinese leaders have outlined an ambitious agenda for reform, but myriad vested interests could slow or block their plans. This Policy Brief evaluates the steps taken so far and the difficulties that lie ahead in implementing them. If policymakers fail to reform and open up the service sector, they run the risk of seriously impairing China's growth prospects.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: China

25. : From Rapid Recovery to Slowdown: Why Recent Economic Growth in Latin America Has Been Slow

Author:: Jose De Gregorio
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Latin America's recent economic performance has been disappointing. After a very strong recovery from the Great Recession, growth has slowed considerably, and prospects for 2015 are dim. Among the seven largest economies in the region, output is expected to contract in Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela, and Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru are projected to grow by only about 3 percent. The decline was not caused by external factors but was mostly cyclical in nature and a result of low productivity. Although monetary and fiscal policies may still have a role in supporting demand in some instances, the main problem in the region is not a lack of demand but low productivity growth. Efforts must be made to foster productivity. Institutional weakness must be addressed and inequality reduced if sustainable high growth is to resume.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Latin America

26. Too Much Finance, or Statistical Illusion?

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: For nearly three decades, the dominant view on the role of the financial sector in economic development has been that greater financial depth facilitates faster growth. However, the Great Recession has shaken confidence in that view because of the contributing role of high leverage and such financial innovations as collateralized subprime mortgage-backed assets and derivatives on them. Recent studies from the International Monetary Fund and Bank for International Settlements have argued that "too much finance" reduces growth. In an environment of new doubts about finance following the Great Recession, these studies finding that there can be too much of it seem to have struck a responsive chord. Cline warns that these findings should be viewed with considerable caution. He first shows that correlation without causation could similarly lead to the conclusion that too many doctors spoil growth, for example. He the demonstrates algebraically that if the variable of interest, be it financial depth, doctors, or any other good or service that rises along with per capita income, is incorporated in a quadratic form into a regression of growth on per capita income, there will be a necessary but spurious finding that above a certain point more of the good or service in question causes growth to decline. In some situations, finance can become excessive; the crises of Iceland and Ireland come to mind. But it is highly premature to adopt as a new stylized fact the recent studies' supposed thresholds beyond which more finance reduces growth.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, and Financial Crisis

27. From Populist Destabilization to Reform and Possible Debt Relief in Greece

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Using his European Debt Simulation Model (EDSM), Cline examines whether and to what extent additional debt relief is needed in Greece under the new circumstances. Greece's debt burden is significantly lower than implied by the ratio of its gross debt to GDP, because of concessional interest rates on debt owed predominantly to the euro area official sector. The IMF's call for debt relief recognizes the lower interest burden but argues that the gross financing requirement is on track to exceed a sustainable range of 15 to 20 percent. But in the Fund's June Debt Sustainability Analysis that threshold would not be exceeded until after 2030. A sustainability diagnosis based on such a distant future date would seem at best illustrative rather than definitive. The euro area creditors might, nonetheless, be well advised to provide two types of interest relief: an earmarked portion of interest otherwise due to finance a public works employment program; and additional interest relief to compensate for budget shortfalls caused by growth below plan levels. The sovereign debt situation should be alleviated by carrying out the bank recapitalization directly from the European Stability Mechanism to the banks, rather than through the sovereign as the intermediary. The large increase in the ratio of gross debt to GDP imposed by bank recapitalization is mostly an optical illusion because there would be a corresponding rise in state assets, but this increase could, nonetheless, further erode perceptions of sustainability.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and Budget
Political Geography:: Greece

28. Fiscal Tightening and Economic Growth: Exploring Cross-Country Correlations

Author:: Paolo Mauro and Jan Zilinsky
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: The global financial and economic crisis that began in 2008 has rekindled the debate on the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth. At the outset of the crisis the focus—particularly in the United States—was on whether fiscal stimulus (an expansion in the fiscal deficit) boosts economic growth. Since 2011 or so, with the depth of the crisis becoming more severe in some European countries and Greece in particular, the emphasis of the debate has shifted to whether fiscal adjustment (a reduction in the fiscal deficit) curtails economic growth. Public discourse has been heavily influenced by simple charts analyzing the correlations between measures of fiscal "austerity" and economic growth for small samples of countries over limited time periods. Mauro and Zilinsky analyze the correlations in the data starting from the simplest and gradually building up, in a step-by-step, transparent manner, to multivariate regressions based on various samples of countries for different periods. The results show that simple correlations are no longer significant when considering slightly longer sample periods and omitting outliers, like Greece, from the sample. In multivariate regressions using broader samples, a tightening of fiscal policy is significantly associated with lower economic growth only in some specifications and estimation samples. On the whole, the data offer partial support to the notion that fiscal choices and output growth are correlated.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

29. Answering Questions About the Commodity Slump: A Summary from the 2015 NRGI Conference

Author:: David Manley
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: There has rarely been as large a commodity boom, with such resounding effects, as the one that has recently ended. Policy makers and commentators saw the boom as an opportunity to pull hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. But, after the crash of commodity prices, one might ask whether this opportunity been largely missed. Policymakers and citizens of resource-rich countries should draw lessons from the experience and ascertain what risks and opportunities they now face in a period of depressed prices. To contribute to this thinking, NRGI gathered more than 180 experts for two days of discussion at St. Catherine’s College, Oxford, in June 2015. Key questions addressed in this conference summary paper include: Were countries prepared for the bust? Was a lack of accountability and transparency really to blame for countries’ poor resource governance efforts? How can transparency be more useful? Has the price slump closed the door on new investment? Is there a “race to the bottom” to stem capital flight? Can we turn the crisis into an opportunity?
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Poverty, Natural Resources, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30. The 2015 Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

Author:: Domenico Lombardi and Kesley Shantz
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The annual CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance assesses progress in five areas of international economic governance: macroeconomic and financial cooperation; cooperation on financial regulation; cooperation on development; cooperation on trade; and cooperation on climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

31. Populist Movements: A Driving Force behind Recent Renationalization Trends

Author:: Jonathan Diab and Anna Klimbovskaia
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Populist uprisings often call for the renationalization or buying back of public goods that were originally privatized as a result of austerity measures established and disseminated by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Topic:: Economics, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, World Bank, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Global Focus

32. Ukraine and the IMF's Evolving Debt Crisis Narrative

Author:: Susan Schadler
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Against the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) fraught experience with crises where debt restructuring is needed, Ukraine’s recent restructuring agreement has been a success. Several factors — in particular, Ukraine’s geopolitical position and the composition of its creditors — facilitated official support for the deal. As these are unlikely to be replicated in future debt crises, the IMF still needs a revamping of its policies and approach in crises requiring debt restructuring. This policy brief examines a number of key challenges in the evolution of a coherent role for the IMF in future crises.
Topic:: Debt, Political Economy, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
Political Geography:: Ukraine

33. The 2015 Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

Author:: Domenico Lombardi and Kelsey Shanty
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The annual CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance assesses progress in five areas of international economic governance: macroeconomic and financial cooperation; cooperation on financial regulation; cooperation on development; cooperation on trade; and cooperation on climate change. In this year’s survey, 31 CIGI experts conclude that international economic arrangements continue to show a level of “status quo,” averaging a score of 50% across all five areas. The 2015 survey indicates a slight improvement to the result of last year’s survey, which suggested a minimal regression overall. The experts’ assessment of progress was most promising in the area of climate change cooperation, with an average score of 57%, whereas the least promising area was macroeconomic and financial cooperation, with a score of 44%, indicating minimal regression. The remaining three areas polled all fell within the “status quo” range, with trade at 46%, development at 48% and international cooperation on financial regulation at 53%. Interestingly, in the area of cooperation on development, CIGI’s experts provided a relatively mixed assessment. Responses varied based on experts’ perception of the effectiveness of current rhetoric, from 70% (indicating some progress) to 10% (suggesting major regression). Compared to last year, climate change governance has made the greatest improvement, but the remaining three areas (with the exception of development, which was not included in the 2014 survey) have all, on average, regressed further or remained stagnant. This trend is cause for concern.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34. China’s Hidden Obstacles to Socioeconomic Rebalancing

Author:: Boy Lüthje and Christopher A. McNally
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The global financial crisis of 2008-09 led to a policy consensus in China that its socioeconomic development model needed rebalancing. China's rapid development has been based on extensive growth reliant on exports, low wages, environmental exploitation, and the manufacturing of cheap products. China's current plans identify paths to economic rebalancing through intensive growth driven by rising investment in new technologies and manufacturing processes, improved wages and skills, and improved worker and environmental protections. Two industries, automotive and information technology, demonstrate the experience of and opportunities for rebalancing. Both offer improved employment conditions with better wages, but continue to incorporate large swaths of low-wage employment with little protection for workers' health and the environment. Economic rebalancing in China, therefore, has so far only appeared in pockets. Institutional safeguards for wages and labor standards remain constrained by powerful alliances among multinational corporations, Chinese state-owned/private enterprises, and the Chinese state.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

35. Germany and the Future of the Eurozone

Author:: Sebastian Plóciennik
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Although the euro has survived the most severe phase of the current crisis, its future is still uncertain. The fate of the common currency will depend not only on the condition of the European economy, but also the priorities of its biggest player—Germany. So far that country has been strong enough to enforce its own vision of integration based on neoliberal reforms and austerity measures. Since the side effects of this prescription have been rising costs and risks, Berlin's new government will consider a range of different solutions, including in extremis a controlled and partial break-up of the Eurozone. For Poland, this volatility creates a challenging environment with risks, but also creates chances for Warsaw to increase its influence over the evolution of EU integration in this field.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

36. A Proposed Code to Discipline Local Content Requirements

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, and Cathleen Cimino
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Proponents of liberalized trade and finance were relieved when the global economic crisis in 2008 produced a broad range of pledges from countries around the world to avoid new barriers to trade and investment (see Evenett 2013). These promises, designed to avert a replay of the Great Depression of the 1930s, were largely honored when it came to classic forms of protection (tariffs and quotas). But the spirit of that pledge was violated as countries shifted from traditional forms of protection to behind-the-border nontariff barriers (NTBs), including local content requirements (LCRs)—policies mandating that local suppliers of goods, services, and even entire projects be favored by governments and private firms, even when foreign firms offer lower costs, better quality, and faster delivery.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Reform

37. Income Inequality Developments in the Great Recession

Author:: Tomas Hellebrandt
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Great Recession, which cost tens of millions of jobs, a collapse of asset values around the world, and threatened the global financial system, has generated renewed concern over the long-standing issue of the fairness of the distribution of wealth and income in many societies. Economic inequality has increased in the United States and many other advanced economies over the past 20 to 30 years. This trend generated less worry in the boom years, when unemployment rates were low and cheap credit enabled consumers to borrow and maintain higher standards of living, masking the impact of growing income disparity on consumption patterns and perceptions of well-being.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, Social Stratification, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Ireland

38. The IMF's Preferred Creditor Status: Does It Still Make Sense After the Euro Crisis?

Author:: Susan Schadler
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Throughout the history of IMF lending, the institution has had PCS — that is, distressed countries borrowing from the IMF are expected to give priority to meeting their obligations to the IMF over those to other (private or official) creditors. This status is a defining characteristic of the IMF's role in financial crises: it provides a high degree of confidence that IMF resources are safe even when other creditors of the distressed country face substantial uncertainty about whether they will be repaid in full. In other words, the IMF, which lends to some of the riskiest countries in the world, faces minimal risk that its resources could be compromised by a debtor country's difficulties in servicing its debt. It does so, however, with the confidence that comes from its role in helping to formulate and monitor a program of policies that are strongly expected to return the country to stability.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

39. Egypt's Solvency Crisis

Author:: Steven A. Cook
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Egypt is experiencing a deep economic crisis. The country's foreign currency r e serves are less than half of what they were before the January 2011 uprising, threatening Egypt's ability to pay for food and fuel. Egypt's budget deficit is 14 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and its overall debt, which is the result of accumulated deficits, is more than the country's economic output. In this difficult economic climate, roughly 4 5 percent of Egyptians live on less than two dollars per day. Inflation, which reached as high as 12.97 percent after the July 2013 military coup, is currently at 11.4 percent. Tourism revenue—traditionally a primary source of foreign currency along with Suez Canal tolls and remittances from Egyptians working abroad—is less than half of what it was in the last full year before the uprising. Foreign direct investment has dried up outside the energy sector. Unemployment remains high at 13.4 percent. Among the unemployed, 71 percent are between fifteen and twenty-nine years old. This economic weakness makes it politically difficult to address the problems that contribute to a potential solvency crisis because the necessary reforms will impose hardship on a population that is already experiencing economic pain.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Economics, Regime Change, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

40. A Failure to Cooperate? Raising the Risks and Challenges of Exiting Unconventional Monetary Policies

Author:: Domenico Lombardi, Pierre Siklos, and Samantha St. Amand
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Central banks (and policy makers more generally) should seek a global consensus before implementing policies that may have global repercussions. The global economy can only become more resilient to shocks when there is greater central bank cooperation. The G20 is a natural venue to promote cooperation and to help the global economy return to stronger economic growth, but other forums may also be appropriate. The maintenance of financial stability is a common resource and should be treated as such. Excessive reliance on sovereignty is counterproductive and contains the seeds of the next crisis.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis

41. Beyond the Euro Crisis: European constitutional dilemmas and Treaty amendments

Author:: Janne Salminen and Päivi Leino
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The actual need for Treaty amendments is open to interpretation, for example in relation to the inclusion of the recent euro crisis-related international agreements in EU law. These questions are partly political in nature, and linked to the wider legitimacy of the EU and the integrity and clarity of its legal system. The full realization of the Commission's vision for the future of the EMU would require Treaty changes in order to revise the nature of competence in the area of economic policy and the general framework of cooperation. The recent discussion on the euro crisis measures has demonstrated that many member states have constitutional 'red lines' relating, for example, to the exercise of budgetary powers or sovereignty. It seems unlikely that these hurdles will be overcome in the short term.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

42. Is the EMU ready for future shocks? An overview of available backstops

Author:: Xavier Vanden Bosch
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In recent years much has been accomplished to make the EMU more resilient to banking crises, sovereign-debt crises or balance-of-payment crises. Several 'backstops' or financial safety nets were progressively put in place to absorb the shocks that could have otherwise broken the EMU as a system. These substantial advances reflected a gradual, trial-and-error approach rather than a grand design that would have completely overhauled the EMU architecture. While flexibility and realism have advantages, complacency is a clear risk. With no roadmap to follow, efforts to complete the architecture of the EMU may fade with time. Maintaining a sense of direction is crucial while potential vulnerabilities remain.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

43. What future for the eurozone? Combining discipline, solidarity and institutional reforms

Author:: Stijn Verhelst and Xavier Vanden Bosch
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This Policy Brief discusses the challenges that await policymakers in reforming the EMU. A balance between discipline and solidarity will have to be found, while institutional reforms should improve the eurozone's legitimacy and efficiency. The key decisions on EMU reforms will have to be made during the 2014-2019 parliamentary term, as the window of opportunity for major reforms is likely to be closed afterwards.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: Europe

44. Afghanistan's Looming Fiscal Crisis: What Can Be Done?

Author:: William A. Byrd
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Afghanistan faces a fiscal crisis that reflects worsening domestic revenue shortfalls since 2011, which could reach $1 billion in 2014 compared with the 2011 outlook. The massive theft and fraud at Kabul Bank, failure of mining activities to pay taxes and royalties, and mislabeling of some commercial imports as duty-free are among other contributing factors. Turning the fiscal crisis around will take time, but a legitimate, credible new Afghan government coming into office is essential. Quality leadership and management teams in the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will be crucial for success. Urgent measures are needed to turn around poor revenue performance, including strong signals from the top, possible exploitation of limited new revenue sources, and cooperation among different agencies to reduce smuggling and contain revenue leakages. Accelerated recovery of stolen and lost Kabul Bank assets should be a priority, which could provide over $100 million per year of extra fiscal space for the budget. Reforms of the revenue system need to be initiated, including introduction of a value-added tax, and possibly reform of the revenue and customs services. Expenditures will need to be cut. This requires the elimination of unnecessary and wasteful expenditures as well as the meaningful prioritization of programs within a tight resource envelope. Additional international fiscal support will be needed to help stabilize the budget in the short run. Linking aid for the Afghan discretionary budget to increases in domestic revenues and Kabul Bank recoveries would make sense.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

45. Why Bail-In Securities Are Fool's Gold

Author:: Avinash D. Persaud
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Bailouts and bail-ins of failing financial institutions have been hotly disputed in the global financial crisis of the last five years. At the height of the crisis, several failing banks were bailed out with taxpayer money so they could service their debts, but as public outrage mounts, policymakers are increasingly looking at bailing in these institutions before using taxpayer funds. Bail-ins, also called haircuts, require the troubled institution's creditors to write off some of the debt or agree to a restructuring of the debt, which reduces their holdings. The public has demanded the imposition of these costs on creditors and bond - holders, arguing that if bad lending as well as bad borrowing went unpunished it would be encouraged. Additionally, the yawning fiscal deficits that have followed bailouts have led to unpopular fiscal retrenchment.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States

46. Understanding Differences in Growth Performance in Latin America and Developing Countries between the Asian and Global Financial Crises

Author:: Roberto Alvarez and José De Gregorio
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Latin American performance during the global financial crisis was unprecedented. Many developing and emerging countries successfully weathered the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Was it good luck? Was it good policies? In this paper we compare growth during the Asian and global financial crises and find that a looser monetary policy played an important role in mitigating crisis. We also find that higher private credit, more financial openness, less trade openness, and greater exchange rate intervention worsened economic performance. Our analysis of Latin American countries confirms that effective macroeconomic management was key to good economic performance. Finally, we present evidence from a sample of 31 emerging markets that high terms of trade had a positive impact on resilience.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Asia and Latin America

47. Economic forecast summary: July 2014

Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: The Economist Intelligence Unit has lowered its 2014 forecast for real GDP growth to 2.2% from 2.5%. Employment and consumer confidence are strong but the weather-induced slump in the economy at the start of the year was worse than first thought. We expect real GDP to expand by more S economic outlook than 3% at an annual rate in the final three quarters of 2014 and by 3.2% in 2015. Job growth has averaged 231,000 a month over the past four months, and the unemployment rate of 6.3% is the lowest for five years.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis

48. Is China's Property Market Heading toward Collapse?

Author:: Li-gang Liu
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: China's property market has slowed significantly since the first half of 2014, with sharp declines in sales and a buildup in the inventory of new homes. This sharper than expected downturn—which has affected not only second- and third tier smaller cities but also first-tier megacities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou—contrasts with last year's buoyant sales and double-digit price surge. Compounded by fears of a default in the shadow banking system and the perception of a highly leveraged Chinese economy, the sudden declines in the property sector are being watched closely. Many commentators believe this could be a turning point for the sector, triggering a hard landing of the Chinese economy and even a financial crisis. Over the last decade, China's property sector has become an important pillar for the country's growth as well as the key source for elevated commodity prices. A property market slump would hurt other sectors, as well as drag down resource-rich economies that rely heavily on China to buy their exports.
Topic:: Economics, Financial Crisis, and Urbanization
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and United Nations

49. Pushing the Turbo Button: What Next for the Polishâ?"Romanian Strategic Partnership?

Author:: Stanislav Secrieru, Lukasz Kulesa, Agnes Nicolescu, and Anita Sobják
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: With the global economic downturn and its implications for the broader political and security architecture of the EU, the Polish—Romanian Strategic Partnership signed in 2009 is now ripe to take the positive relationship to a new level and to be further fleshed out. To this end, political coordination needs to be upgraded for promoting common interests, such as economic stability and solidarity within the Union, continued support to agriculture and cohesion policy as an important priority for EU funding, increasing the energy security of the region, engaging the neighbourhood, particularly Moldova and Ukraine, and maintaining the relevance of CSDP and of article 5 of the Washington Treaty high on the European agenda. The management of instability and protracted conflicts in their neighbourhood are also among their shared concerns. Translating these common priorities into concrete actions should aim at pushing the "turbo button" on the partnership, and help both countries achieve their goals.
Topic:: Security, Debt, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

50. Poland and Spain: How to Cooperate in a Europe in Flux

Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The lingering effects of the eurozone crisis have weakened the European project as a whole. As a result, stronger and more effective cooperation between enthusiastic EU countries such as Poland and Spain is very much needed. Besides cooperation within the EU in such fields as completing the single market and promoting a more holistic approach to the European Neighbourhood Policy, both countries should focus on improving their economic ties in bilateral relations and beyond. Through "smart" trade triangulation, Poland could open new markets in Eastern Europe for Spain, and Spain could reciprocate by doing the same for Poland in Latin America. This could help Poland make the economy more competitive and give Spain a lever for economic recovery.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Latin America

51. Stabilizing Properties of Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis

Author:: Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: There is a long-standing debate among economists and policymakers on the benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates (Klein and Shambaugh 2010). In principle, flexible exchange rates allow a country's central bank to focus on stabilizing economic growth and inflation, which are the ultimate goals of monetary policy. However, some argue that in practice central banks often do not use their powers wisely and it may be better to restrict their freedom by requiring them to peg their currency to that of an important trading partner. Others note that flexible exchange rates are far more volatile than fundamental factors can explain (Flood and Rose 1995), raising the possibility that they may introduce wasteful cross-sectoral fluctuations in economic activity. One common viewpoint is that flexible exchange rates may be fine for large countries but that the smallest countries are better off with fixed exchange rates (Åslund 2010).
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and United Kingdom

52. Governing the Federal Reserve System after the Dodd-Frank Act

Author:: Simon Johnson and Peter Conti-Brown
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act increased the powers of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (hereafter the Board) along almost all dimensions pertaining to the supervision and operation of systemically important financial institutions. With Ben S. Bernanke's term as Fed chair ending in January 2014, much of the public's attention has focused appropriately on the identity, views, and experience of candidates for the successor, whose influence on bank regulation will be considerable. President Barack Obama's selection of current Board vice chair Janet L. Yellen as chair—a highly qualified choice—comes at the end of a long public debate on this nomination.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Reform

53. An Economic NATO: A New Alliance for a New Global Order

Author:: C. Boyden Gray
Publication Date:: 02-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In the aftermath of World War II, the greatest concern facing the United States and its European allies was restraining the Soviet Union and preventing the spread of communism. Cooperation on military security was paramount, and the United States and Europe rose to the challenge by creating NATO, a new type of multilateral defense agreement. Once again, the transatlantic relationship is at a new and perilous crossroads. But now it is economic, rather than military security that is at risk. Crisis grips the economies of Europe, just as the United States, mired in historic levels of unemployment in the wake of the 2008 recession, is rethinking its strategic priorities and place in the world. As before, fears mount concerning the future of liberal democracy and Western capitalism. The question is whether transatlantic cooperation will again rise to the challenge.
Topic:: NATO, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and North America

54. The Sovereign Debt Forum: Expanding Our Tool Kit for Handling Sovereign Crises

Author:: Richard Gitlin and Brett House
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: A sovereign debt forum (SDF) would assist in facilitating more predictable, transparent and timely treatments of sovereign crises during future episodes of debt-servicing difficulties. An SDF would provide a non-statutory, neutral standing body to identify lessons from past episodes of sovereign distress, maintain information on sovereign debt and convene stakeholders to engage in confidential discussions at the outset of a sovereign crisis. The SDF proposal takes inspiration from existing precedents, such as the Paris Club and Vienna Initiative, which demonstrate that informal, rules-based representative entities have a long-standing history of organizing effective workouts for distressed countries An SDF would have a limited remit: to enable early, discreet consultation and information sharing between distressed sovereigns and their creditors to speed the process by which a sovereign is returned to solvency, stability and growth. An SDF would not supersede existing institutions and would rely on close collaboration with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). An SDF would complement other proposals for automatic maturity extensions on securitized debt, arbitration and mediation processes, voluntary standstills and improved aggregation in collective action clauses (CACs). The SDF and other incremental, pragmatic proposals to improve sovereign crisis management should be put at the core of the G20 agenda on an ongoing basis.
Topic:: Economics, Financial Crisis, and Governance

55. The German Election: No vote for Europe?

Author:: Timo Behr and Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The outcome of the German federal elections on September 22nd will have a significant impact on the management of the on-going eurozone crisis and set the tone for the future course of European integration. Although the EU and the euro are largely absent from current electoral debates, significant differences on these issues exist both inside and between German political parties in the run-up to the September polls. However, in the absence of significant debate, fundamental decisions over the future of EU integration will be postponed until after the election, when a cross-party compromise appears more feasible. Regardless of the election outcome, the next German government is likely to prove more conciliatory on austerity policies in Europe and will boost domestic spending, but will retain some red lines on further EU integration. While the rhetoric and the pace of change might differ significantly depending on the shape that the next coalition government takes, German eurozone policies will continue to trade fiscal solidarity for structural reforms.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

56. Fighting the Fed

Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Since the US Federal Reserve signalled that a turn in the interest rate cycle may be on the horizon, UK and to a lesser extent Eurozone interest rates have tracked US rates higher. But the UK and Eurozone economies are less well placed than the US to cope with higher interest rates. Simulations carried out on our Global Economic Model show that higher rates would be particularly harmful to the UK economy's embryonic recovery. In an attempt to stem the rise in interest rates, the Bank of England and the ECB have introduce forward guidance but with little, if any, success. Markets do not seem convinced by the Bank of England's commitment to forward guidance and are testing its resolve. It seems likely that over time both central banks may have to strengthen their forward guidance, in the case of the Bank of England by augmenting it with further quantitative easing.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

57. If the Fed threshold changes

Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: At the end of last week, there were rumours that the Fed may change its unemployment threshold from 6.5% to 6%, either at its 30-31 July meeting or, perhaps more likely, at its 17-18 September meeting. Such a move would confirm that the Fed funds rate is likely to remain in its current 0-0.25% range until 2015, which is in line with our baseline scenario. But while the change would be an acknowledgement that the US labour market has performed more strongly than expected, the change – if implemented – could still be a mistake as it may erode the value of forward guidance by moving the goalposts.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States

58. Draghi's "Whatever it takes" speech was turning point in euro crisis

Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Mario Draghi's commitment a year ago to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro looks to have been an important turning point in the Eurozone crisis. Systemic risk has fallen, the euro has strengthened, spreads on peripheral debt have narrowed and bond and equity markets have become less sensitive to bad Eurozone news flow. Indeed, to date markets seem to have taken Draghi at his word and seem unwilling to test his resolve. But although confidence in the outlook for the Eurozone among investors has risen over the past year, the real economy is yet to emerge from recession. We continue to expect this to happen in the second half of this year, a view supported by this week's improvement in the PMI data. However, unless action is taken to reduce borrowing costs paid by households and companies in the peripheral economies, the recovery will be anaemic. With that in mind, the ECB's announcement that it will ease its collateral rules only marginally is disappointing.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

59. US recovery on track

Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Recent US data have been uneven. An improving manufacturing ISM survey was offset by non-manufacturing data being worse than expected. Last week a strong consumer credit number was balanced by weaker small business confidence. The US economy almost certainly went through a soft patch in Q2. However, on balance the recovery–unexciting as it has been–remains on track, with some possible further mileage to be had from equities. This is consistent with the recent dovish statement by Fed Chairman Bernanke, suggesting that the tapering of quantitative easing is still some way off.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States

60. Our bond market, your problem?

Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Comments from the US Federal Reserve aimed at signalling that monetary policy cannot stay at historically low levels indefinitely have caused bond yields and credit spreads to rise both in the US and abroad. Higher borrowing rates are particularly inappropriate for the Eurozone which, unlike the US, is still struggling to emerge from recession. This tightening of financial conditions will place pressure on the ECB to act. Although surveys show that investors' bearishness on US government bonds is at an extreme level, suggesting that in the coming weeks bond yields are more likely to fall than rise, the longer-term trend in bond yields is now upwards. But we do not expect the rise in yields over the next two or three years to kill off the US recovery. Consequently, we believe that the US equity market is still on an upward uptrend, albeit one that will experience regular spikes in volatility as the Fed gradually moves away from its ultra-loose policy.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

61. Faster taper – limited impact

Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Markets took fright after Ben Bernanke's press conference on 19 June at the prospect of an early end to QE. Bond purchases might be tapered off sooner, as the Fed now expects unemployment to fall to its target of 6.5% next year rather than in 2015. It is not yet clear whether any of the bonds bought as part of QE will eventually be sold off. While it is obvious that an end to the Fed's purchases will have an impact on output growth and asset prices, our Global Economic Model shows that the effects will be limited.
Topic:: Markets, Global Recession, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States

62. UK housing market: bellows to a bubble?

Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: The housing market is recovering, according to recent price and activity data. Post-crisis price corrections were smaller in the UK than in the US and much of Europe, and demand is now being bolstered by the government's Funding for Lending and Help to Buy schemes. This has given rise to some worries that the UK is in danger of inflating another house price bubble. While housing supply is very tight, we are not convinced that these schemes will have enough impact on demand to cause prices to take off.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

63. The case for rising US corporate capex

Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Shifts in financial balances between sectors of the economy are worth watching because they can signal broader cyclical changes. The US household financial balance turned negative in Q1. But that was mainly due to distortions in income related to tax increases in 2013. Taking the average of Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, households still have a positive balance. More importantly, the conditions are in place for a rise in capital expenditure (capex) by the corporate sector. This would allow both household and public sector savings to increase. It would also mean an upside risk to our main scenario for the US economy.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States

64. Iceland and Europe: Drifting further apart?

Author:: Baldur Thorhallsso and Alyson J. K. Bailes
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 at the height of the economic crisis. Four years later, a new government has put the application on hold: the majority of Icelanders are opposed to entry, but want to continue the accession process and put the results to a vote. Iceland's longer-standing problems with European integration stem from the issue of sovereignty in general, and maintaining control over fisheries and agriculture in particular. Since 2009, anti-European feelings have been stoked by the 'Icesave' dispute, while the prospective benefits of entry (including use of the euro) have been tarnished by witnessing the fate of other small states during the euro crisis. The new government proposes remaining a member of the EEA and developing relations with other world powers. But the US commitment to Iceland has weakened over the years, and 'rising' powers like China are unable, as yet, to solve the country's core problems. In terms of both its security and its standing within the global economy, Iceland is becoming more rather than less dependent on Europe over time. The question raised by the latest political turn is whether it will have to maintain that relationship from a distance, with limited control and with no guaranteed goodwill.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

65. Three Options for the EU: Assessing the EU's powers in a true economic and political union

Author:: Teija Tiilikainen
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Safeguarding the EU's unity in the long-term development of the EMU is currently one of the major challenges for the Union. The de facto adjustments made to the EU's economic and fiscal powers due to the economic and financial crisis, including the completion of the Banking Union, create pressures to address the treaty-based division of powers and to strengthen the democratic control of the powers executed by the Union. The need to back the EU's macroeconomic goals with fiscal instruments has been made evident by the economic crisis; the position of these instruments outside the common budget might become increasingly controversial. A further increase in economic solidarity (jointly guaranteed debt, taxation power) might jeopardize the EU's stability and democratic legitimacy if carried out in the current political and institutional framework. A system of constitutional and fiscal federalism would produce a more stable outcome, but would require major changes in the EU's democratic system and system of policy implementation, in its external policies and the way its constitutional powers are arranged.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

66. China's Credit Boom: New Risks Require New Reforms

Author:: Nicholas Borst
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Chinese financial system has undergone almost continuous reform since the dismantling in the 1980s of the Soviet- style system where only one state-controlled bank existed. Government efforts to create a financial system that adheres to international best practices of commercial lending accelerated in the 1990s (box 1). Reforms progressed quickly during this period, but they were accompanied by excessive credit growth and a massive increase in nonperforming loans, threatening the solvency of some banks and the financial stability of the entire economy. The risk of these weaknesses was dramatized by the 1997 Asian financial crisis, in which several nearby countries were crippled by plunging currency values, rising interest rates and difficulties servicing their foreign-held debts.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

67. Lehman Died, Bagehot Lives: Why Did the Fed and Treasury Let a Major Wall Street Bank Fail?

Author:: William R. Cline and Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Five years after the Federal Reserve and the Treasury allowed the investment bank Lehman Brothers to fail, their actions (or inaction) remain a focus of debate. Some argue that it was an inconsistent policy to have let Lehman fail while making emergency loans to save other large financial institutions in the same time frame. In this Policy Brief we present evidence that the Fed and Treasury had a sound reason to have bailed out other institutions while letting Lehman fail. Simply put, Lehman was insolvent—probably deeply so—whereas the other institutions arguably were solvent. In addition, the other institutions had abundant collateral to pledge, whereas what little collateral Lehman had to pledge was of questionable quality and scattered across many affiliated entities. Thus, federal officials, at least in hindsight, appear to have followed the dictum of Walter Bagehot (cited above), which has guided central banks for almost 150 years.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States

68. The added value of CSDP operations

Author:: Hadewych Hazelzet
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Over the past two years, many high-level discussions within the EU have centred around the question of the 'added value' of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). In times of fiscal austerity, member states want to make sure they invest their resources where their impact is strongest. In the current climate of financial crisis and retrenchment, there are no resources or time to waste on a 'beauty contest' between organisations or instruments. In order to prepare for the next decade of deployments, the question to ask is therefore not whether but under what conditions CSDP has brought added value, to date, in responding to given contingencies.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

69. Towards a Deeper EMU: An assessment of political divisions within the EU

Author:: Juha Jokela
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Policymakers, observers and the media have referred to a vast number of divisions in crisis-torn Europe. The EU is divided between north and south or creditors and debtors. Some have emphasised the emerged division between anti-EU and pro- EU forces. Significantly, these divisions are also manifested within the eurozone, in the form of the current differences between the French and German views, and the increasing role of the populist movements in many euro countries. Yet others have highlighted the boundary between the eurozone and the rest of the EU, and suggested that the euro countries now form the core of the Union. Relatedly, some of the non-euro members are distancing themselves from the EU – most notably the UK – while many others aim to secure their influence in the Union, even if euro membership may have been put on the back burner.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

70. ARBITERS AMISS: THE FAILINGS AND SHORTCOMINGS OF INSTITUTIONS GOVERNING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM

Author:: Paul Blustein
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Myriad dangers beset the global economy. The US Federal Reserve is trying to curb its ultra-easy money policy, a delicate operation that could plunge the world into recession if done too abruptly. The euro zone might fall back into turmoil. Japan's experiment with “Abenomics”1 could go sour. China's banking system looks shaky. Emerging economies are suffering large scale withdrawals of foreign funds.
Topic:: Debt, Development, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

71. Geopolitical Shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Patrick Nopens
Publication Date:: 02-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Three major geopolitical events are putting the stability of the Eastern Mediterranean at risk. Most of the region is in a deep monetary and economic crisis. The Arab Spring is causing turmoil in the Levant and the Maghreb. Gas and oil discoveries, if not well managed, could further destabilise the region. At the same time, Russia and Turkey are staging a comeback. In the face of these challenges, the EU approaches the Greek sovereign debt crisis nearly exclusively from a financial and economic viewpoint. This brief argues that the EU has to develop a comprehensive strategy for the region, complementing its existing multilateral regional framework with bilateral agreements in order to secure its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:: Security, Debt, Oil, Regime Change, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Arabia

72. What if the Next Financial Crisis Hits the Banking Union? A Call for an "If All Else Fails" Clause

Author:: Stijn Verhelst
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This Policy Brief argues that the envisaged design of the Banking Union risks not being sufficient to deal with the next large-scale financial crisis. Therefore, an "if all else fails" clause should be approved, stating that the Banking Union members can provide joint last resort financing to deal with a future crisis. An agreement on the clause should be feasible because it is beneficial to all Member States.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

73. Updating The EMU: Differentiated economic integration in the European Union

Author:: Samu Kurri
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The financial and economic crisis has reinforced the two-layer economic integration structure in the EU. Many of the new rules and structures created during the crisis have focused on a solution to the euro crisis and are thus euro area-specific. There is little evidence, however, that the situation would have dramatically changed compared to the Maastricht EMU. All of the changes are still in line with the basic idea that all EU countries will join the euro when they are ready to do so. One of the key questions in the near future is likely to centre on the contours of the euro area specific decision-making, its relationship to the EU as a whole, and its institutions and procedures. Even if the Euro group remains 'formally informal', it has managed to transform itself into a de facto institution within the EU, and its role and weight is likely to increase rather than decrease.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: Europe

74. The Asset Quality Review and Capital Needs: Why re-capitalise banks with public money?

Author:: Daniel Gros
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: There are three aggregate numbers that describe the problem the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) is inheriting: the 130 banks under its direct supervision hold assets worth 250% of the euro area's GDP, their capital is equivalent to only 4% of their assets' value and they have made zero profits, in the aggregate, over the last four years.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: Europe

75. Net Neutrality and Mandatory Network-Sharing: How to disconnect the continent

Author:: Andrea Renda
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: A lively debate emerged on the proposed "Connected Continent" legislative package presented by the European Commission in September 2013. The package contains a proposed rule on the 'open Internet', which was heavily discussed in European Parliament hearings in early December. This commentary argues that while the proposed rule is in principle balanced and appealing, it is utterly impractical due to the enormous uncertainty that its application would entail. At the same time, the rule is very far from what neutrality proponents have argued for almost a decade: rather than the place for internet freedom, it would transform the Web into a place requiring constant micro-management and tutoring of user behavior. Both arguments lead to the conclusion that the current proposal should be at once reformed and analysed under a more holistic lens. On the one hand, Europe should launch an ambitious project for the future, converged infrastructure by mobilising resources and reforming rules to encourage investment into ubiquitous, converged, 'always on' connectivity. On the other hand, enhanced legal certainty for broadband investment could justify a more neutrality-oriented approach to traffic management practices on the Internet. The author proposes a new approach to Internet regulation which, altogether, will lead to a more balanced and sustainable model for the future, without jeopardising user freedom.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Infrastructure, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

76. Policy Lessons for Macroeconomic and Financial Crisis Management in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Rym Ayadi and Willem Pieter De Groen
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The 2007-09 global financial crisis led to a virtual collapse in economic activity and increased financial volatility worldwide. For the developing countries, the main channel of transmission has been a drop in external transactions, such as trade, financial and capital flows, and remittances. The southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC) have also faced declining economic activity, although there seems to be considerable variation in the relative magnitudes and timing of the decline. Most of the economies in the Mediterranean basin have had delayed but longer-lasting consequences as a result of the crisis, driven mostly by their endemic trade and investment ties with the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

77. The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure and Germany: When is a current account surplus an 'imbalance'?

Author:: Daniel Gros and Matthias Busse
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) was designed to prevent the emergence of imbalances like the large and persistent current account deficits that occurred in Spain and Ireland. But within this mechanism, a current account surplus is also viewed as a source of concern. Indeed, last year's Alert Mechanism Report (AMR), issued by the European Commission signalled an excessive current account surplus for the Netherlands and Luxembourg, while Germany just barely scraped by with a 5.9% surplus, marginally evading the 6% threshold (over a 3-year average). With the most recent report, however, Germany's status has changed. Along with the Netherlands and Luxembourg, it too has now been singled out as a euro-area country with a surplus above the upper threshold.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

78. Reshaping the Security Order in Asia-Pacific

Author:: Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The international strategic landscape is evolving at an unprecedented pace. The widespread assumption is that the global balance of power is shifting from the West to the East (and the South), as a consequence of the convergence of two variables: the sustained economic growth of China and Asia over recent decades, and the Western economic downturn since the 2008 global financial crisis. Though interpretations differ on the meaning and magnitude of this power shift, the prevailing assumption is that it reflects the weakness, and for some the relative decline, of the US and the West against Asia's and primarily China's strong rise. The implications of these developments across the Asia-Pacific are deep and have already led to growing strategic competition between Beijing and Washington for preeminence over the Asia-Pacific and new uncertainties over global and regional governance.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, China, Washington, Beijing, Asia, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

79. Reconciling IMF rules and international investment agreements: An innovative derogation for capital controls

Author:: Elizabeth L. Broomfield
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: There is currently no universal framework governing capital controls. As a result, a conflict has arisen due to the different approaches taken by various international organizations and many international investment agreements (IIAs). In particular, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- established to manage the international financial system -- preserves national autonomy over capital controls when such measures are deemed necessary; in contrast, IIAs, and especially bilateral investment treaties (BITs) -- crafted primarily to protect investors -- typically do not allow for the imposition of restrictions on capital outflows associated with foreign investments for balance-of-payments reasons.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis

80. Country Economic Forecasts: Thailand

Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: GDP expanded by 11% on the quarter in Q1 in seasonally adjusted terms, recovering strongly after contracting by more than 10% on the same basis in Q4 when flooding decimated the manufacturing sector. But compared with a year earlier, the economy expanded by just 0.3% in Q1, illustrating the scale of the catastrophe.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Thailand and Southeast Asia

81. Country Economic Forecasts: Germany

Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The German economy is clearly slowing in the face of the latest phase of the Eurozone crisis. We expect the impact of the crisis on business investment and exports to cause the economy to contract in Q2 before recovering slowly in H2. As a result, GDP growth is now forecast to slow to 0.7% in 2012 overall from 3.1% last year, before accelerating to 1.4% in 2013.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

82. Country Economic Forecasts: Czech Republic

Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: GDP fell by a larger than expected 1% on the quarter in 2012Q1 according to initial data released in mid-May. As a result, we now expect GDP will fall 1.1% in 2012. On the political side, the government has avoided a snap election by surviving a confidence vote on 27 April. However, it will find it harder to stick to its austerity plans as its majority was weakened by the vote. Under current policies, we now expect the fiscal deficit to rise to 3.6% of GDP in 2012 from 3.1% in 2011 due to the weakness of the economy.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Czech Republic

83. Bringing Stability to Europe: Why Europe needs a banking union

Author:: Erik Jones
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The European sovereign debt crisis is the result of capital flows across the single market. The danger that such capital flows could unleash market speculation was known from the start; indeed, the single currency was created to remove the threat of exchange rate instability. The problem is that the architects of the single currency did not consider the impact of capital market integration on the banking sector or on the relationship between banks and national governments. Once markets lost confidence in the security of their cross-border investments, investors began to pull back their capital and the internal market for financial services started to disintegrate. The creation of a banking union is part of the solution. However, the euro area also needs a common 'risk-free' asset to use as a safe haven in times of crisis.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

84. The Climate 'Fiscal Cliff': An evaluation of Fast Start Finance and lessons for the future

Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: After a year of extreme weather, developing countries face a climate 'fiscal cliff' at the end of 2012, as Fast Start Finance expires and the Green Climate Fund remains empty. New Oxfam analysis of Fast Start Finance reveals that much of it has been a false start. Governments have not delivered on commitments made in Copenhagen to ensure that the funding was new, additional, and balanced across adaptation and mitigation projects. Developed nations must scale up climate finance from 2013, consider innovative proposals to raise public climate finance, and make pledges to the Green Climate Fund which otherwise will remain an empty shell for the third year in a row.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Economics, Environment, Third World, and Financial Crisis

85. A New Paradigm? Prospects and Challenges for U.S. Global Leadership

Author:: Tural Ahmadov
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: Throughout the years the overwhelming preponderance of US global leadership is debated by scholars and politicians. In light of the 'rise of the rest', this preponderance is either diminishing or still standing. As of now, yet again, the US is a dominant player both economically and militarily. However, economic recession is likely to make the United States put more emphasis on domestic problems and less emphasis on foreign challenges. Since political and economic landscape is swiftly changing overseas, the United States should act accordingly and cooperate with regional powers on issues of mutual interest. Similarly, as current development is under way in the Middle East, the United States should staunchly back Turkey as the regional hub in dealing with Syrian crisis and foiling Iranian menace.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Asia

86. How Can Trade Policy Help America Compete?

Author:: Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: America deserves credit for not having succumbed to the global financial crisis by repeating the protectionist mistakes of the 1930s. Nonetheless, since 2007, although lip service has been paid to boosting US exports, its trade policy accomplishments have been modest. This is unfortunate because active trade policies can promote American living standards and facilitate America's return to full employment and sustained growth. These policies can also help to create a global trade order that advances American interests. This policy brief argues that the United States needs new initiatives that discipline foreign practices, increase access to foreign markets, revitalize the World Trade Organization (WTO), improve the administrative and regulatory environment for trade, and assist workers and communities adversely affected by change.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States and America

87. The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis: An Update

Author:: C. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Getting the diagnosis right is a prerequisite for understanding the euro area predicament and evaluating key decisions taken since early 2010. As we laid out in Bergsten and Kirkegaard (2012), while the euro area faces multiple overlapping and mutually reinforcing elements of fiscal (Greece), banking (Ireland/Spain), and competitiveness (Southern periphery) crises, it is first and foremost facing a crisis of institutional design. The common currency as designed in the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 is a half-built house without the critical components of banking and fiscal union necessary to sustain it through the type of crushing economic and financial down- turn witnessed since October 2008.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

88. Southern Europe Ignores Lessons from Latvia at Its Peril

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In the current financial crisis plaguing Europe, Latvia stands out for resolving its financial problems quickly and resolutely. After contracting 24 percent in 2008 and 2009, it grew at the rate of 5.5 percent in 2011. The speed and determination. with which the government carried out austerity measures in 2009 and restored confidence after suffering the worst output decline is a crucial lesson for the ailing South European countries—Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Many policy observers and economists have dismissed Latvia's crisis resolution as irrelevant to the situation in Southern Europe. The Latvian orange, they say, cannot be compared with the South European apples. I argue otherwise.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, and Latvia

89. Restoring Fiscal Equilibrium in the United States

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Halfway through this presidential election year, there is great uncertainty about how, when, and even whether the United States will restore fiscal sustainability. As shown by the near-default because of the impasse over the debt ceiling in July 2011, the two parties have been in sharp opposition on this issue. The Republicans have insisted that adjustment be accomplished by spending cuts rather than tax increases. Two hundred and thirty eight Republican congressmen and 41 Republican senators have signed the Grover Norquist pledge to oppose any attempt to raise marginal tax rates or reduce deductions without implementing offsetting tax reductions. In contrast, Democratic lawmakers have tended to emphasize the maintenance of social and entitlement programs and expressed a willingness to restore higher tax rates if necessary.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Law
Political Geography:: United States

90. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, May 2012

Author:: William R. Cline and John Williamson
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This Policy Brief updates our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) to the latest available data. For exchange rates, we apply the average rates of April 2012, while for the International Monetary Fund's balance of payments forecasts, we use the April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook (henceforth WEO; see IMF 2012a). This study is the fifth in an annual series, begun in 2008, in which we have used the spring WEO as the basis for drawing out implications for exchange rate changes needed if the world is to approach a reasonably satisfactory medium-run position. In addition, in semiannual updates (most recently in November 2011), we have tracked interim changes in exchange rates but not reestimated the underlying FEERs for the year in question.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis

91. Does Monetary Cooperation or Confrontation Lead to Successful Fiscal Consolidation?

Author:: Adam S. Posen, Tomas Hellebrandt, and Marilyne Tolle
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Active accommodation of fiscal consolidations by monetary policy is controversial, as can be seen in current euro area discussions. While many observers acknowledge that there is usually a place for monetary accommodation in response to fiscal consolidation, a sequencing argument is often heard today that fiscal commitment must precede any loosening. Some analysts go further to suggest that toughness by central banks taking a hard line on adjustment is critical to inducing sustained fiscal stabilization. This policy brief looks at the recent historical record of central bank behavior vis-à-vis fiscal authorities, at least until the current crisis period, and whether accommodative approaches ahead of consolidations have proven dangerous or helpful. The authors also try to assess the market credibility of fiscal consolidations as a function of the central banks' monetary stance prior to fiscal consolidation. They find clear evidence of positive associations between the degree of monetary ease in advance of fiscal consolidation programs and both those programs' success and their market credibility.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance

92. The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis

Author:: C. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Doom and gloom about the euro abounds. An increasing number of commentators and economists, including here at the Peterson Institute, have begun to question whether the common currency can survive.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

93. Spain's fiscal targets should be eased

Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: The Spanish government has announced that the fiscal deficit for 2011 may be even worse than expected, perhaps even exceeding 8% of GDP. In response to this overshoot, the authorities have so far announced additional spending cuts and tax rises amounting to €15bn. But fiscal tightening will have to be even more severe if the government wants to meet its 4.4% of GDP deficit target for 2012.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Government, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Spain

94. The Fed moves to provide more transparency

Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: The Federal Reserve has taken additional actions to make its monetary policy more transparent to markets. The latest moves include the release of FOMC members' expectatins for the federal funds rate at the end of each of the next few years and in the longer term. Another is an statement of strategy for meeting its dual mandates of price stability and full employment. Although the statement included an explicit target for inflation but not for unemployment, the equal weights given to each goal afford the Fed more discretion in setting monetary policy.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States

95. Fixing Mortgage Finance: What to Do with the Federal Housing Administration?

Author:: Mark A. Calabria
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: While Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and private subprime lenders have deservedly garnered the bulk of attention and blame for the mortgage crisis, other federal programs also distort our mortgage market and put taxpayers at risk of having to finance massive financial bailouts. The most prominent of these risky agencies is the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States

96. Constructing a German Europe? Germany's Europe Debate Revisited

Author:: Timo Behr and Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Germany's ambiguous role during the eurozone crisis has stoked fears that a more self-confident and dynamic Germany is threatening the political independence and economic well-being of its neighbours and will lead to a “German Europe”. German weakness, not power, is the main challenge to EU integration. In order to build a supranational EU and a “European Germany”, Germans will have to overhaul their Cold War institutions and traditions that have become a brake on EU integration. Germany's political elite continues to favour a federalist vision for the EU, but faces a somewhat more sceptical public as well as strong domestic veto players, such as the Federal Constitutional Court, which limit their pro-integrationist tendency. While Germany continues to support the use of the “Community method”, Angela Merkel has increasingly resorted to the “Union method” that places function over form and prioritizes pragmatic problem-solving to address the current crisis. Germany's uncompromising attitude towards the eurozone crisis and its sometimes erratic foreign policy are the product of its deeply embedded stability culture and instinctive pacifism, rather than a sign of growing global ambitions. European partners will have to help Germany in its indispensable leadership role by jointly formulating a vision for the European integration project and by assisting Germany in adapting its political institutions and culture.
Topic:: Cold War, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

97. Stepping up Growth Policies

Author:: Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The eurozone is in recession and will show negative growth in 2012; GDP will fall sharply in Greece and Portugal, and there is substantial risk that Spain and Italy will follow suit (the Commission's recent forecasts seem overly optimistic and complacent; the IMF is more downbeat). But fiscal policies are uniformly restrictive throughout the eurozone and much of the Union, and the hopes that fiscal consolidation could spur growth by improving household and business confidence are not materialising. In reality, domestic demand has been hit too hard by fiscal consolidation, and investment throughout the Union remains well below pre- crisis levels. Credit is tight due to the deteriorating quality of borrowers and the ongoing deleveraging in banking.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

98. Gold Exchange Standard in its 40th Year of Abolition: Jacques Rueff Re-Visited

Author:: Onur Bayramoğlu
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: While the post-war international monetary system that evolved under the leadership of the U.S. dollar has secured credit abundance – and hence contributed to global growth – the system has also revealed its deficiencies already by 1950's. In contrary to the 1930's when the world's main problem was chronic deflation; two decades later, the problem has become chronic inflation and fiscal deficits. Since then many blamed the indiscipline of the Keynesian school of thought and the inability of the U.S. dollar to become a global “public good” by being a stable international currency. In this Policy Brief, I overview the many aspects of the post-war international monetary system through the lens of the post-war French economist, Jacques Rueff, and question the applicability of his longproposed gold standard in today's highly integrated and speculative money markets.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States

99. Interest Rate Shock and Sustainability of Italy's Sovereign Debt

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Contagion from Greece, together with domestic political uncertainty in Italy, caused interest rates on Italian sovereign debt to spike in the second half of 2011. As shown in figure 1, the risk spread above German bunds for 10-year Italian government bonds rose from 200 basis points in early July 2011, to a range of 300 to 400 basis points after the July 21 Greek package with its new emphasis on private sector involvement. There was a second surge to the 400 to 500 basis point range in November through January, following the October 27 Greek package that insisted on a 50 percent reduction in private sector claims.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Italy

100. Liquidity in times of crisis: Even the ESM needs it

Author:: Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This paper argues that the new permanent European rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), should be provided with a liquidity backstop by having it registered as a bank – and be treated as such by the European Central Bank. If the crisis were to become acute again, the ESM would stand ready to intervene in secondary markets, potentially with almost unlimited amounts of funding. Access to central bank financing will be crucial in a future crisis, because in such a crisis risk aversion is likely to be extreme, and even the ESM might not be able to raise at very short notice the huge sums that might be required to prevent a breakdown of the financial system. Hundreds of billions of euro might be needed just to top up the programmes for Greece, Ireland and Portugal – and Spain and Italy may require more than a thousand billion euro. Sums of this order of magnitude cannot be raised quickly by a new institution. Simply increasing the headline size of the ESM might thus be of little use.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS