Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: Europe

1. China’s Digital Silk Road: Outlines and Implications for Europe

Author:: Maria
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The Digital Silk Road (DSR) is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that encompasses infrastructure projects, trade and financial agreements, and cultural and defence cooperation with over 140 countries worldwide. Bringing the digital component into the BRI seamlessly advanced Beijing’s ambition of taking a leadership position in the technology sector. The DSR not only speaks across regions but also goes beyond the technology infrastructure, which raises two critical concerns by giving China leverage to advance the digital authoritarian governance model and jeopardizing data privacy. To mitigate these risks and reduce reliance on China, the EU must find alternatives by collaborating with trusted partners and diversifying supply chains. First, the EU can expand its technological landscape and engage nations in the Global South and the Indo-Pacific. Second, it must develop and enforce regulatory mechanisms to prevent Chinese state agencies from misusing sensitive data.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Infrastructure, European Union, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Information Technology, and Digital Silk Road (DSR)
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

2. Exploring options for advancing Kosovo-NATO relations

Author:: Ramadan Iazi and Jeta Loshaj
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: NATO’s role in Kosovo has been vital since the 1999 intervention and KFOR remains integral for guaranteeing security and stability not only in Republic of Kosovo but also the wider Western Balkans. Public sentiment for full NATO membership is extremely high in Kosovo—over 90% support—reflecting Kosovars’ enduring trust in the NATP alliance. However this overwhelming public support can be affected if Kosovo’s aspirations for closer ties with NATO are not addressed. While, Kosovo’s formal progress toward full membership is politically constrained by the fact that four NATO member states have yet to recognize its independence, there are other options that NATO can pursue to advance relations with Kosovo. In this context, this paper explores options how can Kosovo and NATO advance relations and cooperation. The 1995 study provides core principles for options that are examined in this paper. These principles remain highly relevant for Kosovo. While formal membership is stalled by non-recognizing NATO member states, the paper argues that an inclusive, step-by-step approach can be adapted for a flexible, deeper engagement with Kosovo. A central recommendation is the creation of a “Kosovo Enhanced Cooperation Initiative,” a tailored version of NATO’s partnership mechanisms (e.g., Partnership for Peace, Planning and Review Process, and the Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre). KECI would aim to strengthen Kosovo’s defense institutions, enhance interoperability, support civil emergency preparedness, and develop broader crisis-management capabilities. Crucially, it would not force any change in the political stance on recognition among NATO member states. The EU-facilitated normalization dialogue between Republic of Kosovo and Serbia is one of the essential elements especially for Kosovo to build the confidence of both skeptical NATO member states and international partners when it comes to Euro-Atlantic integration process of the country. Regular coordination with NATO and the EU, particularly concerning sensitive actions in the north, would affirm that Kosovo’s leaders prioritize strategic partnerships and diplomacy over moves that risks and undermine support for Kosovo. Nevertheless, without any concrete carrots such as anything close to a guarantee that Kosovo gains an open perspective for NATO’s PfP, it is rather difficult for Kosovo to be encouraged to deliver on either an agreement with Serbia or any other agreement.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Partnerships, Normalization, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

3. Russia’s Shadow War Against the West

Author:: Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Russia is conducting an escalating and violent campaign of sabotage and subversion against European and U.S. targets in Europe led by Russian military intelligence (the GRU), according to a new CSIS database of Russian activity. The number of Russian attacks nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024. Russia’s primary targets have included transportation, government, critical infrastructure, and industry, and its main weapons and tactics have included explosives, blunt or edged instruments (such as anchors), and electronic attack. Despite the increase in Russian attacks, Western countries have not developed an effective strategy to counter these attacks.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Intelligence, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Transnational Threats
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

4. EU’s Strategic Net-zero Technology Promotion Policies and Global Supply Chains

Author:: Youngook Jang
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This brief examines recent trends in the EU's industrial and trade policies related to net-zero strategic technologies and their supply chains. It then analyzes the impact of these policies on global supply chain reshaping. As a major player in global supply chains and an active participant in the transition to a net-zero economy, the EU has recently been promoting industrial competitiveness through various industrial and trade policies. Quantitative analyses imply that these policies will likely increase intra-EU trade and reduce extra-EU trade. Korea should respond and adapt to changes in the global trade environment by drawing up Korean industrial policies using EU examples as a reference.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Trade Policy, Supply Chains, and Net Zero
Political Geography:: Europe and South Korea

5. No One-Size-Fits-All: Outreach and Counselling for Irregular Migrants

Author:: María Belén Zanzuchi
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Tackling irregular migration to Europe has long been high on the EU agenda. The strategies proposed and adopted for addressing this issue have evolved over time, resulting in an increasingly diverse set of tools. These include strengthened border controls, voluntary and forced return efforts, new legal pathways to offer alternatives to irregular movement, and regularization. In recent years, European countries have also added to the toolkit to address irregular migration by conducting outreach and counselling for specific groups of irregular migrants. The reasons include informing them about available return and reintegration support, raising the visibility of pathways out of irregularity (such as regularization options, where they exist), and ensuring all members of a society have access to certain essential services. As interest and investments in this area grow, this MPI Europe issue brief explores the diversity of initiatives, actors, and practices in this field. It draws, among other sources, on interviews with government and nongovernmental stakeholders in eight European countries (Belgium, Denmark, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) and on roundtable discussions among public officials, local administrations, civil-society actors, and representatives of nongovernmental organizations.
Topic:: Civil Society, European Union, Investment, Irregular Migration, and Regularization
Political Geography:: Europe

6. Connecting Opportunities: Greece’s Strategic Role in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)

Author:: Dimitris Gavalas and George Dikaios
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: This policy brief discusses the role of Greece in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), focusing mainly on those aspects related to infrastructure and ports and the global supply chain. It suggests a series of different actions and highlights different angles that Greece should take into account if it wants to be a major player in the establishment of the Corridor and its gateway to Europe/European Union. – IMEC will be a game changer in international trade relationships, regional tensions, and political challenges. – The main obstacles to IMEC’s establishment are the conflicts in the Middle East and other major national interests of key actors (such as the Chinese monopoly in the region). – Focus is given to port infrastructure, as ports are pivotal to the global supply chain. India pays significant attention to its ports, while the Port of Piraeus is the largest port in Eastern Europe. – The critical role and position of Greece are highlighted, underlying its role as a hub that connects India and the Middle East to Europe. – Greece needs to invest in infrastructure development, build a skilled workforce, and attract foreign investments. – Suggestions for establishing a successful commercial corridor between India and Greece are given, focusing on mutual interests and growth opportunities.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Trade, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, India, and Greece

7. Destined for Division? US and EU Responses to the Challenge of Chinese Overcapacity

Author:: Salih Bora, Mary Lovely, and Luis Simón
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Heightened concerns about China’s exports have intensified competitive pressures on producers and compelled American and European policymakers, government officials, and political leaders to try to counteract those concerns. President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on China by 145 percent is the most recent—and arguably most dramatic—example of broader concerns about Chinese overcapacity. The clash with China is particularly evident in sectors that US and European leaders have deemed essential for growth and security, charging that Chinese industrial subsidies, rather than comparative advantage, are the basis for the country’s export success. However, the European Union and the United States have taken different approaches to resolve tensions with China. The European Union seeks, at least for now, to preserve and adhere to global trading rules. By contrast, the United States has acted unilaterally (even before the second Trump administration) to defend its domestic production by engaging in a trade confrontation with China that, together with China’s retaliation, has rattled global financial markets. This Policy Brief explores these EU-US divisions, their reflection on trade and industrial policy, and prospects for coordinated action against Chinese overcapacity. The authors argue that the European Union can take the lead toward a resolution within the rules-based system while maintaining an open door to future US participation.
Topic:: European Union, Tariffs, Exports, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, Europe, North America, and United States of America

8. Issue brief: A NATO strategy for countering Russia

Author:: Ian Brzezinski
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Russia is the most direct and significant threat to the security of NATO member states—and since Moscow’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 this threat continues to grow. It now encompasses the war in Ukraine, the militarization of the Arctic, hybrid warfare, and violations of arms control treaties. While NATO holds a significant advantage over Russia in military and economic power, an effective and unified strategy is needed to counter Russia’s aggression and fully harness the Alliance’s collective capabilities. To effectively counter Russia, NATO must defeat Russia in Ukraine, deter Russian aggression against NATO allies and partners, contain Russian influence beyond its borders, and degrade Russia’s ability and will to accomplish its revisionist agenda. That will require, among other actions, a significant increase of support and commitment to Ukraine’s defense against Russia, and a more robust Alliance force posture including the modernization of its nuclear deterrent, the permanent stationing of brigade elements along NATO’s eastern frontier and increased defense industrial capacities.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Intelligence, International Organization, National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Deterrence, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9. The Future of European Digital Competitiveness

Author:: Oscar Guinea and Vanika Sharma
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi’s recent report on Europe’s competitiveness lays bare the negative effects of overregulation in the EU economy and the underperformance of its digital sector. However, Draghi failed to draw connections between these two phenomena. The future of Europe’s competitiveness is inextricably linked to the future of its digital economy. Unfortunately, the economic contribution of Europe’s Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector remains significantly smaller than that of the US ICT sector to the US economy. There are well-known reasons behind this divergence. Chief among them is the lack of sufficient investment in Europe’s intangible and tangible assets. Regulation, particularly those regulations governing the digital economy, has emerged as a key factor that restricts Europe’s usage of digital technologies and hinders subsequent productivity growth. The EU now has nearly 100 tech-focused laws, comprising thousands of pages, provisions, and restrictions. This must change. The EU should develop a joint plan for digitalisation and competitiveness. This plan should build upon Europe’s comparative advantages: openness, strong institutions, the rule of law, robust intellectual property protections, and high levels of human capital. Above all, the EU must recognise that, while protecting consumer rights, EU policies and regulations must also prioritise the competitiveness of Europe’s ICT sector and promote the widespread adoption of digital technologies across the entire EU economy.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Digital Economy, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

10. Quantum Technology: A Policy Primer for EU Policymakers

Author:: Oscar Guinea, Dyuti Pandya, Oscar du Roy, and Andrea Dugo
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Quantum technology is rapidly emerging as a transformative force with the potential to reshape industries ranging from finance and pharmaceuticals to automotive and aerospace. In 2024 alone, investments in quantum technology reached over USD 56 billion. Its development, however, presents unique geopolitical challenges, stemming from its applications in defence and encryption, as well as its power to unsettle established comparative advantages and market specialisations across countries. Against this backdrop, an open and collaborative approach to quantum innovation is critical for maximising the benefits of this technology. Countries perform more effectively in quantum technology when they support cross-border collaborations and market specialisation. Firms producing quantum hardware or software solutions can sell to a range of industrial users who, in turn, integrate these cutting-edge systems into goods and services. Such synergy reduces the overall risks and costs of R&D, as different partners share both the financial burden and any uncertainties related to the commercial viability of quantum applications. Moreover, collaboration fosters a wider diffusion of quantum technologies. As firms specialising in quantum computing, communication, or sensing deepen their expertise, their insights permeate adjacent sectors through the shared knowledge enabled by joint collaborations. Conversely, restrictive policies that limit interaction between domestic and foreign firms risk stifling innovation. Self-reliance strategies reduce opportunities for knowledge-sharing, limit the pool of potential partners, and ultimately slow the pace of quantum breakthroughs. This operating framework supports the current EU approach to quantum technology, which emphasises openness and encourages a higher number of collaborations between EU and non-EU companies. This approach is grounded in economic realities: the EU ranks second only to the US in terms of the number of companies and collaborations between firms and it thrives on partnering with non-EU countries as the number of collaborations with companies outside the EU far exceeds the number of collaborations within the EU.
Topic:: European Union, Digital Economy, Digital Policy, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: Europe

11. Cybersecurity at Risk: How the EU’s Digital Markets Act Could Undermine Security across Mobile Operating Systems

Author:: Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The EU’s fight against cybersecurity threats risks being undermined by the over-enforcement of the Digital Markets Act (DMA). Article 5(4) could force mobile operating system providers to allow unregulated external links, bypassing critical security controls and exposing millions of smartphone users to cyber threats. The DMA focuses on market structure, overlooking how differences in operating system design affect security vulnerabilities. A one-size-fits-all approach ignores platform-specific security needs, leaving European users exposed to cyber threats. This risks undermining the EU’s economic security agenda, including initiatives like the Cybersecurity Strategy, Cyber Resilience Act, and NIS2 Directive, which aim to strengthen digital defences. The unintended consequences of this regulatory approach are already evident in Apple’s recent decisions to withhold certain features – such as advanced AI functionalities and enhanced app security tools – from the EU market due to DMA-related concerns. As a result, EU consumers face reduced access to innovative technologies, diminished user experiences, and weaker security protections compared to users in other regions. Now, Android, a widely used open-source system, may also be compromised by DMA enforcement, potentially limiting its flexibility, security, and the broader ecosystem of app developers and device manufacturers that rely on its open architecture.
Topic:: European Union, Cybersecurity, Digital Economy, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:: Europe

12. The Participation of Foreign Bidders in EU Public Procurement: Too Much or Too Little?

Author:: Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This policy brief examines EU public procurement data from the Tenders Electronic Daily (TED) to evaluate foreign bidders’ participation and success in winning EU public contracts. Despite data coverage limitations, the available information shows an increase in foreign participation in both full and partial contracts, with most activity concentrated in a few countries. Countries like the United States, Japan, and Canada focus on securing full contracts, while nations such as Norway and Turkey often engage through partial contracts. Notably, since Brexit, UK bidders have faced a significant decline in market share, benefiting other countries. The main conclusion is that foreign participation via cross-border procurement (Mode 1) – the only one available in the TED database – is not very high. Although it increased over time, it remains relatively modest, mainly due to low participation rates, rather than discriminatory practices. Between 2016 and 2019, only about 7 percent of EU procurement authorities received foreign bids. This fact alone largely explains the low level of cross-border procurement taking place via Mode 1: put simply, there is no winning without trying. Another important conclusion is that a comprehensive assessment of the participation of foreign bidders in EU procurement would require two new key metrics in the TED data collection process to capture the more important yet missing modes of international procurement. Having reliable and comprehensive data is not just an academic pursuit but a necessity for shaping effective EU policy in the face of rising global protectionism in public procurement.
Topic:: European Union, Contracts, and Public Procurement
Political Geography:: Europe

13. EU Export of Regulatory Overreach: The Case of the Digital Markets Act (DMA)

Author:: Matthias Bauer, Dyuti Pandya, and Vanika Sharma
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) exemplifies the “Brussels Effect,” extending the EU’s regulatory influence beyond its borders and shaping global digital competition policies. While intended to curb the market power of large technology platforms and promote fair competition, its broad, rigid, and pre-emptive approach risks stifling technological development, deterring investment, and creating legal uncertainty, particularly in emerging markets still building digital infrastructure and seeking to attract foreign investment. Large technology firms play a pivotal role in global economic development, driving innovation, infrastructure upgrading, and consumer welfare. However, increasing regulatory scrutiny, particularly under DMA-like frameworks, could inadvertently harm the very markets they help grow by imposing compliance burdens that hinder business expansion and technology diffusion. Countries with weaker institutions and regulatory capacity – such as India, Brazil, South Africa, and other emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) like Indonesia – could face greater risks of regulatory capture, corruption, and enforcement challenges if they replicate the EU’s approach without adapting it to their economic realities (Section 2). A key concern with the DMA is the departure from traditional case-by-case enforcement in competition policy, instead relying on broad, pre-emptive obligations based on ambiguous concepts such as fairness and contestability. This shift reduces legal certainty, increases the risk of inconsistent enforcement, and may inhibit dynamic competition, which is essential for innovation-driven sectors like fintech, e-commerce, ICT, and edtech. By prioritising static over dynamic competition, the DMA could impede technological progress, limiting consumer choice and long-term economic benefits (Section 3). The global adoption of DMA-like regulations risks further regulatory fragmentation and may create unintended consequences, particularly in emerging economies where regulatory frameworks, institutional quality, and market structures differ significantly from the EU. Broad prohibitions on business practices, such as self-preferencing and data-sharing, could limit opportunities for local firms to scale internationally, weaken cybersecurity protections, and reduce incentives for large technology firms to invest in these regions (Section 4). To ensure proportionate and effective competition enforcement, governments outside the EU should prioritise regulatory flexibility and case-by-case assessments over broad, static restrictions. OECD best practices on competition policy emphasise clear objectives, legal certainty, and regulatory proportionality, ensuring that competition enforcement supports, rather than stifles, innovation and investment (Section 5). Moreover, the risks of corruption and regulatory overreach in developing countries make broad ex-ante regulations especially problematic. Excessive discretionary power granted to local authorities could increase the risk of politically motivated enforcement, deter foreign investment, and undermine long-term economic growth. A more effective approach would be to strengthen institutional frameworks, enhance transparency, and adopt supply-side policies that support technology neutrality, free trade, and economic freedom.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Regulation, Digital Markets Act (DMA), and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

14. Trade in the Great Sea: The Future of EU-Southern Neighbourhood Trade Relations

Author:: Jan A. Micallef
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This policy brief looks into the future of EU-Southern Mediterranean trade relations. It evaluates the current trade and contractual instruments governing these relations and asks if they are sufficient or if more is needed to exploit trade opportunities and manage trade challenges in the region. The policy brief shows why and how the current trade instruments are no longer sufficient. There are two main reasons for this: first, they do not really tackle areas such as services, investment and non-tariff measures (NTMs), all of which are important to unlock economic value for both sides in today’s economy; and second, new economic and political developments reinforce the need for better agreements. As trade becomes more political and intertwined with other issues such as energy, critical minerals, the environment and industrial policy, it is necessary to improve the agreements and instruments that govern trade. The policy brief lists some of the upgrades in EU-Southern Mediterranean trade agreements that are necessary. However, it also analyses what challenges there are to pursue these upgrades and what can be done to overcome the problems. The policy brief concludes that working towards these aims will be challenging but not impossible if there is the necessary political will on both sides. Both sides should realise that the price of not doing anything might be higher than the effort that is required to bring their trade instruments up to the standards needed.
Topic:: International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

15. Navigating Geopolitical Realities: The EU’s Strategic Positioning in the South Caucasus and Central Asia

Author:: Tengiz Pkhaladze
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the strategic importance of the South Caucasus and its pivotal role in the European Union’s evolving engagement with Central Asia. The regional landscape, however, remains highly volatile. Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has had direct and indirect repercussions for the South Caucasus. Against the backdrop of the war, Moscow continues its efforts to maintain the region within its sphere of influence – through military presence, disinformation, economic leverage, and political interference. Twenty percent of Georgia’s territory remains illegally occupied by Russian forces, while the fragile post-conflict environment following the Second Karabakh War continues to shape relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While missions such as EUMM in Georgia and EUMA in Armenia reflect the EU’s growing political engagement, they remain limited in scope and capacity, constraining the Union’s ability to address the region’s evolving risks. The EU’s partnerships with South Caucasus countries are characterized by both strategic opportunity and persistent friction. Azerbaijan has become an important energy supplier to the EU, particularly via the Southern Gas Corridor, and is also involved in early-stage renewable initiatives such as the Black Sea Submarine Cable Project. However, the relationship remains complicated by enduring concerns related to governance, human rights, and democratic norms. Georgia, despite receiving EU candidate status in 2023, has prompted growing concern among EU institutions and member states over perceived democratic backsliding and increasing political polarization. The country remains a vital transit hub for the Middle Corridor and a central partner in EU connectivity efforts, but its internal developments have raised questions in Brussels about the sustainability of its European path. At the same time, Georgia continues to be a major target of Russia’s hybrid influence operations, which exploit internal divisions and erode trust in Euro-Atlantic institutions. Armenia, disillusioned with Russia’s security guarantees, is cautiously deepening its engagement with the West. However, the extent of this shift remains contingent on developments in Georgia – given Armenia’s geographic dependence – and on the prospects for a durable peace agreement with Azerbaijan. This policy brief assesses how the EU is managing the tensions between its strategic objectives and its normative commitments in a region increasingly shaped by Great Power rivalry. It concludes with policy recommendations aimed at strengthening the EU’s credibility and effectiveness in both the South Caucasus and Central Asia – advocating for a more coherent, proactive, and principled approach that aligns short-term geopolitical interests with long-term goals for regional stability and integration.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Strategic Interests, Regional Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and South Caucasus

16. Collective Action in the Netherlands: Why It Matters for the Transposition of the Product Liability Directive

Author:: Oscar Guinea, Dyuti Pandya, and Vanika Sharma
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This policy brief explores the implications of the Netherlands’ transposition of the new EU Product Liability Directive (PLD), focusing on its interaction with the Dutch collective action system. As one of the first EU countries to implement PLD and a key hub for mass litigation, the Netherlands offers a compelling case study. Features such as low claim thresholds, opt-out mechanisms, flexible settlements, limited cost-shifting, and the ease of creating litigation-backed entities make the Netherlands particularly attractive for mass claims, reinforcing its reputation as a “litigation magnet.” The new PLD simplifies liability claims, broadens the definition of “product” to include software, digital files, and related services, lowers evidentiary thresholds, extends liability to third-party actions such as cyberattacks, and includes post-market defects. These provisions, combined with the Netherlands’ collective redress regime, are expected to drive a rise in mass litigation. This rise poses particular economic risks for the Netherlands, one of the EU’s most digitised economies. Ranked sixth in digital adoption by Eurostat’s Digital Intensity Index, Dutch firms – especially in finance, insurance, ICT, and manufacturing – may also face growing exposure to collective actions under the PLD, which extends liability across the entire value chain. These sectors account for 27 percent of the value added in the Dutch market economy and are widely recognised as key drivers of economic growth. Increased legal uncertainty may also reduce the Netherlands’ attractiveness to multinational corporations, threatening levels of foreign direct investment and employment, both essential pillars of the Dutch economy. Growing mass litigation may also hinder innovation by redirecting R&D resources toward legal risk management. This is particularly concerning for the Netherlands, one of the EU’s top R&D investors. Drawing on US evidence, large-scale litigation can significantly erode market capitalisation, and based on our estimates, the cumulative loss in value for 31 Dutch companies featured in the EU R&D Scoreboard could reach €5.5 billion under the high-growth scenario. Such declines could impact household wealth, as Dutch households save approximately 14.6 percent of their gross disposable income, of which 20 percent is invested in equity. Pension funds, which also play a central role in Dutch long-term savings, can also hold significant stakes in publicly traded Dutch companies. As a result, the effects of collective actions on the market value of Dutch companies extend beyond corporate balance sheets, posing potential negative consequences for Dutch savers, as well as current and future pensioners. This report was commissioned by the European Justice Forum, a coalition of businesses, individuals and organisations that are working to build fair, balanced, transparent and efficient civil justice laws and systems for both consumers and businesses in Europe.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Litigation, and Liability
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

17. Strengthening the Supply-Side Innovation in EU Telecommunications

Author:: Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The telecommunications sector is central to the EU’s competitiveness, not only providing the infrastructure that underpins digital connectivity but also serving as a key driver of innovation. Recent EU reports already highlight the persistent structural challenges faced by the EU telecommunication sector: market fragmentation, low investment levels, divergent spectrum policies, and an urgent need to bolster digital sovereignty. However, a critical dimension in this discussion often receives far less attention: the supply of the underlying technologies that power telecommunications infrastructure. In this domain, EU companies remain competitive. In 2023, 27 EU-headquartered firms were among the world’s top 2,000 R&D spenders in telecommunications, accounting for 16 percent of global sectoral investment. These figures underscore that, while Europe may lag in investment and infrastructure, it still holds strategic leadership in telecom innovation and technology development. Central to Europe’s success are standard development organisations (SDOs), technical standards, and Standard Essential Patents (SEPs). SDOs provide collaborative forums where companies jointly develop technical standards that ensure interoperability, reduce fragmentation and foster innovation. Complementing this, SEPs protect the innovations embedded within these standards, granting European companies vital licensing revenues that sustain their research efforts. This system is particularly important for EU firms, which tend to be smaller than their global competitors; it enables them to specialise in cutting-edge technology development and commercialise their innovations globally without needing to dominate manufacturing or end-user markets. As competitiveness in telecommunications increasingly depends on the pace and adoption of innovation, the EU faces both a challenge and an opportunity. European firms have the potential not only to supply critical technologies but to drive breakthroughs in connectivity which are linked to the development of other technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) or quantum technologies. However, to stay competitive, the EU must reinforce its position on the supply side, where its companies still operate at the technological frontier.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Digital Economy, Innovation, and Supply and Demand
Political Geography:: Europe

18. Fast, Fair, Funded and Feminist: A pathway to a just and transformative climate transition within and beyond the UK

Author:: Natalie Shortall, Chiara Ligouri, and Ruth Mayne
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The world is in the grip of a climate emergency. Urgent and equitable action is essential to prevent yet further escalating climate impacts that are devastating communities worldwide and to safeguard a liveable planet for future generations. For governments everywhere, including the UK Government, this is a defining test of leadership. But it is also a moment of opportunity—an opportunity to build economies and societies that are not only decarbonised and climate resilient, but that actively reduce inequalities, are more inclusive, and prioritise the wellbeing of people and the planet over short-term profit. In this report, we outline key steps the UK Government can take to lead the way toward a just and transformative transition—one that not only stabilises the climate but also delivers fairness and justice for all.
Topic:: Climate Change, Government, Transition, Climate Justice, and Net Zero
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

19. Raising the Bar: Supermarkets must urgently address structural exploitation of cocoa farmers

Author:: Jesse Arnon and Anouk Franck
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Most cocoa farmers in main cocoa producing countries Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are poor, even though they are at the heart of the supply chain for a luxury good: chocolate. For decades they have been receiving low farm gate prices, which don’t allow them to earn a living income for their families. At the same time, companies in the cocoa and chocolate supply chains have been making huge profits. Supermarkets in the Netherlands and Germany have taken first steps by making long-term commitments to ensuring cocoa farmers are paid a living income reference price, but the share of honest chocolate they have on offer only reaches 5%. It’s time that they radically change the way they do business, by committing to long-term fair prices for farmers, sharing the risk with cocoa farmers and being accountable for all the chocolate products they sell. This paper focuses on supermarkets, which are powerful actors in the cocoa and chocolate supply chain. As primary retailers, supermarkets have a direct link with consumers and have power across the supply chain so they can drive real change. Dutch and German supermarkets have made living income commitments, and they have started implementing them.
Topic:: Human Rights, Business, Cocoa, Farming, Living Income, and Supermarkets
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, Netherlands, and Global Focus

20. No Women, No Peace – A Snapshot of Oxfam’s Engagement with the Women, Peace and Security Agenda: Lessons and Opportunities

Author:: Marie Sophie Petersson, Lydia Ayikoru, Souhadou Diasso, Fatma Jaffer, and Moath Jamal
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This briefing paper summarizes the important lessons learned since 2018 by Oxfam Denmark and the wider Oxfam confederation while promoting the women, peace and security (WPS) agenda and supporting WPS programming in Burkina Faso, Colombia, Ghana, Kenya, Lebanon, Mali, Niger, the Occupied Palestinian Territory, South Sudan, Syria, Uganda, Ukraine and Yemen, including under the Danish International Development Agency (Danida) strategic partnerships. It contains practical and policy-level recommendations for international actors working on the WPS agenda in various crisis and conflict contexts globally. The briefing paper shows that supporting and amplifying locally led feminist action by diverse women-led, women’s and LGBTQIA+ rights organizations, networks and groups is a central foundation for peace and justice.
Topic:: Leadership, Crisis Management, Gender, Protection, Localization, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Global Focus

21. Using data as a production factor: policy ideas for a new EU data strategy

Author:: Bertin Martins
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: A major task for the 2024-2029 European Commission will be to reconcile and simplify the European Union’s range of data-market laws into a more coherent framework. At the heart of the approach should be the non-rival nature of data, meaning it can be used by many parties for many purposes at the same time. That creates the potential for economic efficiency gains from the re-use and aggregation of data. Exclusive private data control rights and high transaction costs may stand in the way of realising these gains. We define economic criteria against which existing data market regulations can be evaluated. These criteria lead to the following recommendations to improve existing EU data regulations: The EU general data protection regulation facilitates re-use of personal data. Machine-readable consent notices and real-time data transfers could reduce high transaction costs that prevent meaningful exercise of informed consent. The European Health Data Space contains an almost-ideal governance regime for health-data re-use and pooling that maximises incentives for data-driven innovation. This regime should be applied to other industrial data-space initiatives. The Data Act facilitates access and re-use of product data but exclusive licensing rights for data holders, monopolistic pricing of third-party data transfers and other anti-competitive measures reduce its impact. Widening its application to services data would make it a truly horizontal data-market regulation. The Digital Markets Act contains several obligations for platforms to grant users access to their own data. Widening access to networked data would facilitate competition between platforms and their users. Mutual instead of unilateral sharing of search-engine data would avoid fragmentation of the search-data pool. The Artificial Intelligence Act imposes unwarranted and costly restrictions on the re-use of copyright-related content data for AI model training data, reducing the innovative impact of AI. The text and data mining exception in the EU Copyright Directive could be broadened to address these new AI technology challenges. EU data market regulations exhibit a tension between exclusive private rights and the realisation of the wider societal value of data. Finding an acceptable balance may involve some redistribution of the efficiency gains between data users and the original data collectors.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Digital Economy, Microeconomics, Data, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:: Europe

22. Prepare now: Europe must get ready for the coming long-term care surge

Author:: Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, David Pinkus, and Nina Ruer
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Demographic change and ageing populations in European Union countries will impact many aspects of the economy and have a direct effect on long-term care (LTC) systems. Demand for LTC already exceeds supply in many EU countries, leading to the ‘care gap’. This gap is expected to widen, threatening quality of life for the elderly, exacerbating gender disparities and imposing significant economic costs. The root causes of the gap include demographic shifts, inadequate public investment, workforce shortages and a heavy reliance on informal caregiving. Women stand to lose the most if no steps are taken to prepare LTC systems for the coming surge in demand because care, both formal and informal, is predominantly provided by women. The care gap can be reduced by either increasing the supply of care or by reducing the demand for care. We assess LTC reforms in five EU countries and explain how these can affect the care gap by influencing demand and supply. Governments should: Recognise LTC as a priority. Governments should increase public spending on LTC and make LTC a central policy priority linked to broader goals, including gender equality and economic growth. Expand funding mechanisms. Governments can introduce new means of financing, such as mandatory LTC insurance and pre-funding mechanisms. Most importantly, benefits should target those with the greatest needs, to promote equity and adequacy. Support the workforce more. The LTC sector should be made more attractive by raising wages, improving working conditions and expanding training programmes to attract and retain workers. Develop prevention strategies. EU funds could be directed to research into treatments targeting age-related diseases such as dementia. National governments could invest in public health campaigns and preventive care to reduce future demand. Use the newest technologies. EU countries should invest in robotics and assistive technologies to improve productivity and to reduce physical strain on caregivers.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Governance, European Union, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe

23. Not yet Trump-proof: an evaluation of the European Commission’s emerging policy platform

Author:: Heather Grabbe and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The economic strategy being defined by the 2024-2029 European Commission seems to follow the prescriptions on innovation and single market reform, and the expansive approach to industrial policy, set out by Mario Draghi in his September 2024 report on European Union competitiveness, with two important differences. First, the Commission stops short of calling for World Trade Organisation-prohibited subsidies – this is welcome. Second, the Commission proposes a new state aid framework for national industrial policy rather than expansion of EU-level public investment funding. This runs the risk of weakening the single market and harming competition, with the unintended consequence of protecting incumbents and inhibiting structural change. In terms of specific policies, on defence, the Commission is right to face up to the challenge of defining an EU procurement mechanism that offers sufficient speed and cost advantages to justify large-scale funding. On economic security and international partnerships, the Commission is right to take a broader approach than a foreign economic policy focused only on supply chains. What is lacking is a much greater commitment to providing support for climate mitigation in developing countries. The second Trump presidency creates risks for the Commission strategy. President Trump has gone further than expected in threatening territorial expansion and with the speed, aggression and disregard for the rule of law with which he has started to implement his policies. These factors will complicate the EU-United States relationship. The best defence against both Trump and the competitive and security threats posed by China is to accelerate policies that address the EU’s structural weaknesses: raising productivity growth, defence capacity and economic security. Economic security, in turn, requires more resilient trade relationships, less financial dependence on the US and an improved standing with emerging market and developing economies. The EU should also seize the opportunity offered by the shift in US policy from subsidies to deregulation. While the EU should not race Trump to the bottom on environmental or financial deregulation, it should rapidly improve its own regulatory framework while building on its core strengths: human capital and the rule of law. Unlike tariff wars or discriminatory subsidies, a competition to provide a good business environment is not a zero-sum game.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Industrial Policy, Budget, European Union, Digital Economy, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, Sustainability, European Commission, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

24. Upgrading Europe's electricity grid is about more than just money

Author:: Conall Heussaff and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Electricity network investment is essential for the energy transition, with annual investments of tens of billions of euros required across Europe. Network companies are already investing such amounts and delivering efficient grid investments requires more than additional money. Assessing infrastructure needs is the first step in grid investment. At local, national and European Union levels, network development planning is determined by policy choices and can greatly affect the efficiency of investments. Coordinated grid planning is crucial to set the right incentives for the efficient development of the European electricity system. An EU independent system operator could assume responsibility for network planning by providing regular, independent assessment of efficient network investment needs from a holistic European perspective. Although significant capital expenditure is undoubtedly necessary, network regulation should encourage network companies to invest in the most-efficient solutions. Current regulatory approaches may favour traditional capital expenditure, leading to system inefficiencies and higher-than-necessary consumer costs. Cross-border electricity transmission infrastructure is critical to integrate renewables into the electricity system at scale and reduce costs for European consumers. But such projects are often not built or are delayed because those that decide on and pay for the infrastructure are not necessarily those that benefit from it. A European fund could smooth negotiations between parties and accelerate the physical interconnection of the European electricity system. Fairly recovering the costs of grid investments from consumers is vital to maintain public support for the energy transition. National funds could smooth out cost impacts over time, keeping electricity affordable throughout the energy transition.
Topic:: Climate Change, Electricity, Decarbonization, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Europe

25. How to improve the European Union’s sustainable finance framework

Author:: Silvia Merler
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union has sought to steer corporate behaviour to support its climate goals by adopting a large body of rules on sustainable investment, sustainability disclosures and sustainability labelling of financial products, underpinned by a taxonomy of activities considered sustainable. It is unclear, however, if this effort has had significant results. Examination of financial market data and metrics of investment flows towards green and sustainable investment shows up several weaknesses – both contingent and structural – in the EU sustainable finance framework, which could limit its effectiveness in aligning capital flows with climate objectives. The Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) is aimed at making the sustainability content of financial products more transparent but rests on a concept of ‘sustainable investment’ that is too broad and loosely defined. Meanwhile, the EU Taxonomy Regulation has not yet become established as the reference framework for corporate bond issuance or sustainable investing. The EU also lacks a coherent framework for transition finance – or investment that is not yet classified as sustainable but that represents progress to greater sustainability – despite this being the market segment to which the largest volumes of investment will need to flow in the short to medium run. Five adjustments would make the EU sustainable finance framework more effective at delivering the desired alignment of incentives. First, the taxonomy framework should be completed and clarified. Second, the SFDR definition of sustainable investment should be toughened. Third, the neutrality of the framework across capital market instruments, in particular debt versus equity, should be ensured. Fourth, a dedicated framework for transition finance should be developed. Finally, formal sustainable and transition labels for financial products should be introduced. This approach would make the sustainable finance framework more easily applicable to all kind of companies and all types of capital market instruments, regardless of whether they limit the use of proceeds, and it would be naturally extendable into a framework for transition finance and into a transparent sustainability labelling regime for financial products.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Macroeconomics, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Europe

26. The European Union’s new fiscal framework: a good start, but challenges loom

Author:: Nicolas Boivin and Zsolt Darvas
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union’s fiscal framework, updated in April 2024, aims to strengthen fiscal sustainability and foster public investment. It requires countries to maintain or gradually reduce their public debts to no more than 60 percent of GDP, and ensures compliance with a 3 percent of GDP deficit limit and some safeguards. EU countries must submit Medium-Term Fiscal Structural Plans (MTFSPs) showing how they intend to comply. MTFSPs for most EU countries have now been approved by the European Commission, on the basis that the fiscal paths in the plans are credible and increased public investment is foreseen even amid fiscal consolidation. However, macroeconomic assumptions in MTFSPs frequently deviate from the Commission’s guidance, often reflecting optimistic growth projections. Overly optimistic assumptions risk deviations from approved fiscal paths, while disagreements about macro projections, which are central to debt sustainability analysis, could undermine the framework’s credibility and hinder implementation at a later stage. Several MTFSPs assume higher stock-flow adjustments (SFAs) than included in the Commission’s prior guidance, indicating that these countries must implement somewhat larger fiscal adjustments. Historical data shows large positive SFAs for many countries, suggesting that multi-year-ahead SFA projections should be extended to all countries, based on a transparent methodology. The plans indicate that greater planned fiscal adjustments tend to be associated with deeper cuts to public investment. The overall increase in public investment ratios remains below 0.2 percent of GDP according to the plans and Commission and OECD forecasts. While the EU’s major investment gaps should primarily be addressed through private investment, public investment must also play a role. Innovative approaches, such as a new EU fund financed by common borrowing, are essential to boost investment in the EU. The updated fiscal framework’s long-term success depends on achieving consensus on macroeconomic assumptions, including the standardisation of methods to assess the growth impacts of reforms, while refining SFA methodologies and finding new ways to foster investment. Strengthening these elements will make the framework more credible and effective, enabling it to better guide fiscal policy and support sustainable growth.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

27. Europe’s energy information problem

Author:: Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Comprehensive information on energy-related topics, such as take-up of heat pumps, industrial natural gas consumption and prices, and battery connections to the electricity grid, is either not available in Europe in a timely manner, or not available at the level of granularity, reliability and consistency needed for informed decision-making. Certain information is simply not collected, while other information is collected but is not comparable or consistent across Europe, or is hard to access. European policy targets, such as greenhouse-gas emission reduction pathways, are evaluated using models for which input assumptions and parameters are not public knowledge. It should be a European Union priority to improve this situation. Doing so will enable better decision-making by policymakers and companies. This is especially relevant when Europe faces the triple challenge of decarbonisation, ensuring security of energy supply and growing its internationally competitive energy-consuming industries. The EU status quo is that good energy information is provided by a mix of institutions, agencies, national bodies, industrial associations and non-governmental organisations, but with substantial room for improvement. Lessons can be learned from the United States Energy Information Administration and the European Environment Agency, which was established to better coordinate climate data. Improving energy information will involve difficult political decisions. A process should be started to evaluate the options and to measure the continued cost of inaction.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Institutions, Green Deal, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

28. Europeans still want climate action, but don't trust governments to deliver

Author:: Jan Eichhorn and Heather Grabbe
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The vast majority of Europeans continues to support action to combat climate change, but many are losing faith in governments to deliver a transition that is effective and fair. Based on a large-scale questionnaire answered by nearly 8000 people in five EU countries in 2024, with a comparison to responses from 2020, we find that Europeans continue to worry about climate change and want effective action to combat it, even though the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly increased their concerns about economic and physical insecurity. Scepticism about the causes of climate change has risen a bit, and concern about adapting to its impact has grown. People across all income groups, particularly in France, Germany, Italy and Sweden, feel negative about the outlook for their economic future and their governments’ ability to improve it. People who feel politically disaffected think that decisionmakers are not taking their views and interests into account when making economic and climate policies. Some people are now shifting their attention away from action against the climate crisis towards adaptation, but this does not mean they are less concerned about climate change. Instead, for some people, it is an expression of their disillusionment with state institutions – and this feeling is present among supporters of parties across the political spectrum. Worry about climate change is equally spread across all socio-economic groups. Closer examination of attitudes in Germany, using evidence from focus groups, which we also discuss in this Policy Brief, reinforces the finding of increasing scepticism about the German government’s ability to manage the climate crisis. If political leaders want the public to continue to support climate policies, they must engage proactively now to avoid even greater loss of confidence in government. If governments go soft on efforts to combat the climate crisis now or delay action, they will not meet voters’ demand for an effective and just transition. Moreover, hesitation and delay would boost populist and far-right actors’ efforts to sow doubt about the causes of climate change and whether policies will be effective.
Topic:: Climate Change, Elections, Populism, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

29. Ukraine: European democracy’s affordable arsenal

Author:: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: European NATO members must raise defence spending by enough to deter through strength an irredentist Russia. This must be done possibly without the United States and when ageing populations demand higher social spending. Raising defence spending to sufficient levels could result in a doubling of current primary deficits to just over 3 percent of GDP on average. This seems likely to be a fiscally unattainable goal for this group of countries. European NATO members, in addition to their quantitative defence spending challenge, face the qualitative challenge of significantly increasing their outlays on new modern military equipment, especially drones, to credibly deter Russia. This will require all European NATO members to significantly increase investments in their domestic and regional military-industrial capacities. While its armed forces are physically defending their country against Russia’s onslaught, Ukraine is transforming gradually into a very large, advanced and cost-competitive military equipment and weapons producer. Through the so-called ‘Danish Model’, individual European Union and NATO members are already actively funding Ukrainian defence production, helping it to help itself against Russia. Much more focus should be put on Ukraine’s ability, if fully integrated with the military-industrial sector in the rest of Europe, to produce much of the modern military equipment wanted by itself and the rest of Europe. This Policy Brief shows how Ukraine already produces drones and modern howitzers, arguably the two most important weapons in defensive warfare today, at prices well below those achieved by other Western military suppliers. The EU, with a fully integrated and funded Ukrainian military-industrial sector, will have the capacity to produce much of the cost-competitive military equipment it will need in future, while continuing to fund its welfare systems. To facilitate this development, the EU must in all defence and military-related matters begin treating Ukraine immediately as a full EU member.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Industrial Policy, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

30. Reinforcing EU merger control against the risks of acquisitions by big tech

Author:: Mario Mariniello
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Since 2000, online platforms that are now within the scope of the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), have bought nearly 700 small, promising companies worldwide. However, only 19 of their attempted acquisitions were notified to the European Commission, the authority exercising merger control over deals with a substantive EU connection. In the other cases, the acquired target’s turnover did not meet the conditions for merger notification. These acquisitions have happened in the context of digital markets becoming increasingly concentrated, leading to speculation that concentration levels might have been lower had some of those acquisitions not taken place. The harm that the concentration of market power in a handful of American digital companies may cause is magnified by the current position of the United States, which aims to shield platforms from regulatory enforcement. Acquisitions of small companies may have pro- or anti-competitive effects. Established market players may buy startups to become more competitive or to supply a higher quality product or service, ultimately benefitting final users. Mergers may also incentivise innovation and attract venture capital. However, incumbents might also acquire small companies with strategic, anti-competitive objectives. They might want to stop challengers to their market power from emerging in the future. Or they might acquire small companies to prevent competitors from relying on the target’s supply to complement their competing products. Moreover, competition authorities struggle to make accurate predictions about the evolution of competitive dynamics in new and complex markets, such as digital markets. Authorities thus may be unable to take the correct decision, even if the merger is notified. Responding to these issues hinges on amending the DMA. The European Commission should be empowered to scrutinise any acquisition performed by the large platforms within the DMA scope (currently, the DMA requires these platforms to inform the Commission of any intended concentration, but envisages no other action). Moreover, the burden of proving that the merger is not harmful should be shifted to the large platforms. This would leverage market players’ knowledge to help increase the accuracy of merger decisions in a highly dynamic and uncertain environment.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Microeconomics, Big Tech, European Commission, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

31. How DeepSeek has changed artificial intelligence and what it means for Europe

Author:: Bertin Martens
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: By mid-2024, artificial intelligence large language models (LLMs) were running into diminishing returns to scale in training data and computational capacity. LLM training began to shift away from costly pre-training to cheaper fine-tuning and allowing LLMs to ‘reason’ for longer before replying to questions. Fine-tuning uses chain-of-thought (CoT) training data that includes questions and the logical steps to reach correct answers. This increases the efficiency of learning for smaller AI models, such as DeepSeek. CoT data can be extracted from large ‘teacher’ LLMs to train small ‘student’ models. These changes shift the cost structure of AI models from high pre-training costs to lower fine-tuning costs for model developers and more inference costs for users. While smaller models are cheaper to use, a positive AI demand effect is likely to exceed the negative price effect. Price competition between models will increase, resulting in tighter margins for AI firms. Specialised models can still fetch premium prices. Cheaper LLMs are an opportunity for European Union companies to catch up in building smaller AI models and applications on top of LLMs. Increased demand for AI services will require more investment in computing infrastructure, including in the EU. Investing in large LLMs and the corresponding hyperscale infrastructure is riskier, especially as price competition between models increases. Knowledge extraction between AI models puts pressure on model developers to protect their investments against free-riding by others. It also creates a dilemma for policymakers: should they favour free-riding to promote competition and innovation, or should they clamp down and reinforce monopoly rents to stimulate investment in AI models? Past policy will not be an appropriate response in a world that offers vastly expanded opportunities for knowledge pooling and innovation at lower cost.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Economic Policy, Microeconomics, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Large Language Models (LLMs), and DeepSeek
Political Geography:: Europe

32. The demographic divide: inequalities in ageing across the European Union

Author:: David Pinkus and Nina Ruer
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union is projected to enter a period of population decline after 2026, with implications for economic development and labour markets, though these will vary because of different trends in different EU countries. Between 2023 and 2050, Eastern and Southern EU countries will face the sharpest declines because of both natural population decrease and limited net inward migration. In contrast, Northern and Western countries could see population growth driven by higher migration. By 2050, working-age populations are projected to decline in 22 out of 27 EU countries, while the share of those aged 85+ in the EU as whole will more than double. This shift will strain healthcare, pension and long-term care systems across the continent. Eastern and Southern EU countries will face more severe ageing and workforce shrinkages, undermining their competitiveness and potentially contributing to increasing inequality. Western and Northern countries will also age, but slower natural population decline and larger migration inflows will give them more time to adjust. However, regional disparities within countries will likely widen as migrants concentrate in urban areas, leaving rural regions even more vulnerable to depopulation. Policies must be adapted to these different demographic trends. Eastern EU countries should focus on retaining talent, attracting migrants in sectors with labour shortages and increasing labour-force participation by women and older workers. Southern countries should strengthen family-friendly and youth-employment policies, while improving migrant integration and regional infrastructure. Western and Northern countries must prioritise migrant integration, rural development and gradual labour-market reforms for ageing populations. A coordinated EU plan for these different trends would support EU countries in addressing the challenges they will face. Integration of migrants into labour markets and societies will be especially important, though relying on sustained high migration may not be a viable long-term solution and will not be a substitute for maximising the participation of residents in labour markets.
Topic:: Demographics, European Union, Inequality, and Aging
Political Geography:: Europe

33. Making the best of the new EU Social Climate Fund

Author:: Eva Jüngling, Giovanni Sgaravatti, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The slow pace of decarbonisation of buildings and transportation threatens the European Union’s goal of reducing emissions by 55 percent by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2050. To address this, a new emissions trading system, ETS2, is being introduced to put a carbon price on fuels used in buildings and road transport. However, the resulting cost increases risk a disproportionate impact on vulnerable households and small and medium sized enterprises. The European Union has created the Social Climate Fund (SCF) to address these distributional challenges. This instrument redistributes a portion of auction revenues generated by the ETS2 among EU countries, in order to protect the most vulnerable. A much larger share of ETS2 revenues will flow directly to national governments, offering significant opportunities for social measures and investments in the green transition. The use of those revenues will dictate how successful EU countries are in managing the transition and protecting households, particularly in higher-income member states, which will receive relatively smaller shares of SCF funding. ETS2 is an essential part of the EU climate policy toolkit. Governments should employ good practices, as identified by the European Commission, to tackle emissions from buildings and transport and to gradually phase out income support, in line with the achievement of investment targets and milestones. Higher-income EU countries should develop additional targeted financing levers to protect the vulnerable and to introduce extra enablers to encourage private investment. Proper sequencing, outreach and communication will be essential to ensure the uptake of measures and public support for policy instruments. Cross-country learning should be leveraged, including through the creation of a European policy registry that will help countries compare their approaches and potentially amend their SCF spending plans on the basis of learning from policies that been successful elsewhere.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Welfare, Transportation, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Protection
Political Geography:: Europe

34. The governance and funding of European rearmament

Author:: Guntram B. Wolff, Armin Steinbach, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Europe faces a grave security threat. Gaps in European military equipment are substantial compared to Russia’s military build-up. The European defence market is fragmented and weakened by home bias in procurement, low order numbers and technological gaps. These problems reflect the combination of past reliance on the United States and Europe’s nationally-based defence governance. With the US now retreating from its role of European guardian, greater cooperation is essential to close technological gaps and reduce rearmament costs. Unless procurement is pooled and fragmentation reduced, additional demand for defence goods will mainly drive up prices. Better-integrated defence markets would both increase competition and facilitate entry of new defence technology firms. The combination of integrated markets and scaled-up procurement could lead to a halving of unit costs. European Union measures including the European Defence Fund, the Act in Support of Ammunition Production, the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act and ReArm Europe represent progress towards strengthening the supply of military goods but the incentives offered are too small to address the home bias in procurement or to coordinate the provision of ‘strategic enablers’ such as military satellites. To go further, the EU and its European allies have two options. First, the role of the European Defence Agency could be broadened, possibly in combination with a new lending instrument similar to the EU’s 2020-22 SURE programme. Second, a European Defence Mechanism (EDM) could be created: an institution similar to the European Stability Mechanism, based on an intergovernmental treaty. The EDM would undertake joint procurement and plan for the provision of strategic enablers in specified areas, with a capacity to fund these roles. It could own strategic enablers and charge usage fees to EDM members, reducing the budgetary impact of rearmament. EDM membership would entail prohibition of both state aid and procurement preferences that benefit national defence contractors at the expense of contractors from other EDM members. Of the two options, the second is preferable, as it would (1) create a defence industry single market among EDM members, (2) create a financing vehicle that might make large-scale projects fiscally feasible, and (3) include non-EU democracies such as the United Kingdom on an equal footing, while also giving an opt-out to EU countries that lack the political appetite for more defence integration, or that have national constitutional constraints.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Governance, Geopolitics, Weapons, Macroeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

35. Who should be charged? Principles for fair allocation of electricity system costs

Author:: Conall Heussaff, Eva Jüngling, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The high costs in the European Union of supplying electricity can only be structurally reduced through decarbonisation and deeper European electricity system integration. In the short-term, policymakers have few choices. They can redistribute system costs by shifting components from one consumer to another. Another immediate distributional option would be to reduce energy taxation, implicitly shifting costs to the taxpayer. Meanwhile, decision-making processes that translates electricity system costs into final consumer prices are fragmented. Rules on the short-term production, transmission and consumption of electricity are determined at EU level. National regulators and governments determine how the fixed costs of the system are recovered from consumers, while national policymakers also set energy taxes. This Policy Brief sets out options for shifting the fixed costs of the electricity system between consumers, for changing energy taxation to reduce prices and for evaluating systemic trade-offs between system cost and other characteristics, such as sustainability and reliability. We also estimate the quantitative effects of shifting costs between consumers and reducing taxes on electricity. We set out four principles for pricing electricity fairly. Policy interventions in the electricity system should not seek to achieve broader economic objectives at the expense of energy-policy goals. Consumer prices should incentivise efficient system operation. Carbon emissions should be priced in. The fixed costs of the electricity system should be primarily recovered from inelastic consumption. European policymakers should develop transparent analytical tools to assess the distributional effects of electricity-policy interventions. Lessons should be learned from the energy crisis, during which EU and national policies attempted to shield consumers from price impacts, and these lessons should form the basis of ongoing efforts to reduce prices. EU guidelines for electricity cost recovery should be established, following fundamental economic principles, and could form a policy toolbox for national governments to reduce energy prices. Finally, the long-term strategic goal of deeper physical and institutional integration of the European electricity should be pursued to structurally reduce electricity prices.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Electricity, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

36. Building coalitions for climate transition and nature restoration

Author:: Jean Pisani-Ferry, Beatrice di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Global climate and biodiversity outcomes will largely be determined in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). We propose a four-pillar strategy to support climate and nature preservation in line with the economic interests of both developing and advanced countries. This would move beyond voluntary pledges to embed climate and nature objectives into the structures of trade, finance and industrial policy, creating a self-reinforcing system of cooperation and reducing the net costs of the green transition. Under Pillar 1, a coalition of advanced and developing countries would link tiered carbon pricing with a common carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). Pillar 2 would create a climate-finance coalition to decarbonise the power sectors of developing countries. Pillar 3 would involve partnerships to develop clean energy-intensive industrial production stages in developing economies with rich renewables endowments; these would feed into the supply chains of the European Union and other energy-importing advanced economies. Pillar 4 would redesign markets to create scalable and credible mechanisms to fund carbon removals. Technology-based removals can be incentivised through the introduction of clean-up certificates into the EU emissions trading system, while nature-based removals would require improved market design centred on a new asset class: nature shares. The four pillars reinforce each other. A multi-country CBAM and carbon pricing coalition (Pillar 1) would reduce the cost of financing power sector decarbonisation (Pillar 2). Linking EMDE membership of the CBAM and carbon-pricing coalition to financial support for the decarbonisation of power sectors would also make it more attractive for EMDEs to adopt carbon prices. Decarbonisation of power sectors (Pillar 2) would be a precondition for developing clean, highly energy-intensive industry in renewables-rich EMDEs (Pillar 3). The Pillar 1 coalition should include the EU, China and as many other countries as possible. Advanced countries and China could underpin the Pillar 2 financier coalition. Pillar 3 would involve the EU and potentially other energy-poor advanced countries, along with EMDEs that are richly endowed with renewables. Pillar 4 would include the main custodians of the planet’s natural capital. Enabling these coalitions will require EU leadership.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Industrial Policy, Trade, Sustainability, Decarbonization, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe

37. Reconciling the European Union’s clean industrialisation goals with those of the Global South

Author:: Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Clean industrialisation is a political and economic priority for the European Union. For it to work, affordable clean energy is needed. However, producing this energy in Europe is constrained by limited renewable energy endowments (sunshine and wind) and land availability, while the transportation costs for imported clean energy (in the form of electricity or hydrogen) are much higher than for fossil fuels. An alternative way to fuel Europe’s clean industrial sector would to import energy-intensive primary tradeable products such as ammonia, methanol and reduced iron. We estimate that more than ten percent of total future EU clean energy demand will be met by such products. Public policy in Europe should aim to facilitate trade in energy-intensive intermediate inputs, which are cheaper to import than energy directly. Imports of these inputs could boost the competitiveness of downstream stages in the energy-intensive value chain (such as steel production). By lowering overall energy demand and thus electricity prices, such imports would also raise EU competitiveness more broadly. In many cases, they would replace imports of less energy-intensive commodities such as iron ore, therefore not adding to Europe’s overall import dependency. The direct economic impact in terms of jobs and value added that would be offshored is not substantial. The international benefit of such a strategy would be that it would embed third countries – especially emerging and developing economies – into clean industrial value chains. Stable European demand can help such countries develop export-driven, clean industrial strategies. Politically, this could be an important incentive that could offset the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism. Governments should therefore not use taxpayer money to fight the relocation of energy-intensive and tradeable primary products, beyond some minimum threshold that is desirable for economic security and innovation reasons. Meanwhile, ongoing negotiations with third countries to establish Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships should put trade in energy-intensive clean products at the core of new international clean supply chains.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, European Union, Global South, Industrialization, Decarbonization, Energy, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Europe

38. The time is right to make a European Union-India trade deal happen

Author:: Ignacio Garcia Bercero and André Sapir
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Nearly 20 years have passed since the EU and India started negotiations on a bilateral trade and investment agreement. After seven years of intense negotiations, the process stalled in 2014, primarily because of the failure of the respective political leaders to make difficult choices. Talks restarted in 2022 and now offer a reasonable chance of delivering a bilateral free-trade agreement “within the course of the year”, as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared in February 2025. The EU and India both rank among the world’s five largest economies in terms of GDP. Yet much separates the two economically. India’s GDP per capita is much lower than the EU’s, and its level of trade and investment protection is much higher than that of the EU or even its middle-income peers. However, India has recently enjoyed faster growth than any other large economy, including China. The EU and India are also being brought closer by the global geopolitical situation and their common pursuit of strategic autonomy and economic security. The two sides should learn the lessons from past failure and reach an ambitious agreement in areas that previously proved difficult, such as goods tariffs and services, and in new areas, such as climate protection, that could again derail the revived negotiation if not managed well. A deal by the end of 2025 will have economic benefits and will also reinforce the broader economic and political links between the EU and India at a time when world affairs are under severe strain. An ambitious agreement could also help reconstruct a rules-based global order for the new multipolar world. This is particularly important for the multilateral trade and climate regimes, where converging EU and Indian positions could have a major influence on the redesign of international institutions and rules.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Governance, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, and India

39. Analyzing How the Tools of the British Far-Right Have Evolved

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Since July 30, 2024, several British cities and towns have been gripped by a wave of far-right violence described as the worst since World War II. This outbreak followed the killing of three girls in a knife attack at a children's party in Southport, northwest Britain. The violence involved a series of criminal and inflammatory actions in what appear to be coordinated efforts to thwart immigration and intimidate minorities in Britain. This reflects the British far-right's ability to utilize and even evolve its traditional tools to adapt to the current context and available resources.
Topic:: Immigration, Violence, Far Right, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

40. How the Aid Fund for Northern Syria can upgrade humanitarian aid and EU geopolitical engagement

Author:: Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: UN bureaucratic inertia, weak leadership, Stockholm syndrome and a laissez-faire attitude by donors have allowed structural problems with humanitarian aid delivery in Syria to persist for too long. These problems include regime capture of aid, dependency on Damascus to deliver aid cross-border and, more recently, too much focus on lifesaving aid. The coming humanitarian funding crunch demands that these problems are finally addressed at pain of a rapid increase in the misery of millions of Syrians. This will have consequences both in terms of local predation and international migration. The Aid Fund for Northern Syria (AFNS) could be the vehicle to break existing molds due to its more diverse governance structure, independence of both Damascus and the UN, greater focus on Early Recovery and an innovative, if emergent, localisation strategy. As a bonus, it can support a pragmatic conflict management strategy for northern Syria based on the ‘safe, calm and neutral environment’ concept of the 2012 Geneva Communiqué and UNSCR 2254. Donors should consider the practical actions proposed in this brief to put their money where their mouths are.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, European Union, Geopolitics, and Donors
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Syria

41. How Dutch farmers’ protests evolved into political mobilisation

Author:: Camille van Hees, Louise Van Schaik, and Pieter Zwaan
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The early signs of the now omnipresent polarisation between farmers’ interests and environmental goals began to appear in the Netherlands in 2019. That year saw both the launch of the European Green Deal as the EU’s overarching growth strategy and the establishment of a political party representing farmers’ interests in the Netherlands, the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB). Five years later, the Green Deal has lost its appeal and the BBB is likely to enter government, although electorally the party seems past its peak. Farmers are now protesting across Europe and many oppose, in particular, EU environmental policies they consider overly bureaucratic and damaging to their business. The European Christian democrats (EPP) have clearly repositioned themselves as representatives of agricultural interests. They are keen to keep the rural vote, which is also sensitive to other more conservative and right-wing issues. In the Netherlands, this became clear in the most recent general elections where populist parties managed to attract a large part of the (rural) vote and where Geert Wilders’ anti-migration Freedom Party (PVV) became the biggest with about 25%. In this policy brief, we will zoom in on the events that shaped the rise of the BBB and led to the current political situation in the Netherlands. On that basis, this policy brief looks at how the Dutch case could be a prologue for the forthcoming European Parliament elections.
Topic:: Protests, Political Movements, Mobilization, Green Deal, and Farmers
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

42. Can Europe and India deepen ties through critical raw materials cooperation?

Author:: Emil Havstrup and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Europe and India are rapidly embarking on a clean energy transition with the share of renewables skyrocketing in their respective energy mixes. This heightens concerns about dependence on critical raw materials (CRMs), such as cobalt, nickel and graphite, that are needed for renewable energy technologies, and whose supply chains are largely dominated by singular exporters such as China. It is not the case that Europe and India lack reserves of, for instance, lithium, but there are barriers to extracting them, and even if new mining activities are undertaken, it will take time. This policy brief reviews how the two parties are juggling with their dependence on China-dominated CRM dependent value chains. Both realise that derisking, diversification and/or decoupling cannot be easily and quickly achieved. While the EU is nervous about being drawn into a wider regional conflict between the United States and China, India’s attempts to deal with the China threat has drawn it into various issue-based strategic partnerships. It makes sense for the two blocs to reframe the discussion on de-risking and instead cooperate on joint investments into Research & Development into alternatives to some CRMs, developing competitive supply chains for new materials and cooperating on the re-use and recycling of existing materials.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Renewable Energy, and Raw Materials
Political Geography:: China, Europe, India, and Asia

43. NATO Summits: Looking ahead from Washington to The Hague

Author:: Dick Zandee and Roman de Baedts
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The July 2024 NATO Summit in Washington DC confirmed that the Alliance is ‘back to the future’. Upon its 75th anniversary NATO took important decisions to further strengthen its political-military power in response to a variety of security challenges, in particular to the threat posed by Russia. Increased defence spending is starting to deliver results in improving the military capabilities of European Allies. NATO’s partnerships with the EU and with countries in the Pacific have been reinforced. Yet, dark clouds are hanging above the Alliance on its way from Washington to its next Summit in The Hague (June 2025). First and foremost, the US presidential elections on 5 November cast a shadow over the transatlantic cooperation, or even worse, may result in a category 5 hurricane for NATO if Donald Trump re-enters the White House. American military support for Ukraine could stop completely, increasing the pressure on European Allies to do more, or to end their ‘whatever it takes’ rhetoric. To ensure the US contribution to NATO, European Allies will need to step up their defence efforts, even under Democratic President Kamala Harris. The American focus on the Indo-Pacific/China is raising questions about the European role and contribution to the Alliance as well as to the Asia-Pacific region. This policy brief will address these major issues for the Alliance on the road from Washington to The Hague.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

44. European defence industry: urgent action is needed!

Author:: Dick Zandee
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: By invading Ukraine in February 2022 Russia has thrown the European security order into the waste bin. In essence, the Western reaction has been ‘we will not fight, but we will support Ukraine in its war effort’. Western countries have delivered a wide variety of weapon systems. Although this support has been vital for Ukraine’s defence, it has resulted in minimum levels of American and European arms and ammunition stocks. As a consequence, the burning question is how to ramp up the defence industrial production, in particular as the armed confrontation in Ukraine has developed into a war of attrition. The EU has launched several initiatives to support member states in procuring replacement equipment and ammunition to be delivered to Ukraine. At the same time, European countries have to strengthen their own defence capabilities in order to increase their share of the burden of NATO’s collective defence, while also realising more European autonomy. In the EU, there is broad political support for the strengthening of the European Defence Industrial and Technological Base, not only for economic reasons but as a necessary precondition for Europe’s security. However, despite this urgent call, industrial production is lagging behind, endangering both Ukraine’s war effort and the strengthening of European security and defence. This policy brief assesses how the EU is responding to the urgent challenge of adapting its defence industry to the requirements resulting from the new security environment. The central question is what should be done in order to change gear for increasing the production of ammunition and weapon systems. After assessing the consequences of the changed security situation for European capability needs, the author addresses the steps so far taken by the EU and the challenges lying ahead as the war will continue in 2024 and perhaps even beyond. The final section presents ten concrete action lines to overcome the obstacles for ramping and speeding up European defence industrial production.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

45. Towards an EU geopolitical approach on transformative terms in the Western Balkans

Author:: Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief assesses the EU response after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, asking how the EU can pursue a geopolitical EU enlargement approach while maintaining its transformative objectives. The brief first provides a concise assessment of the instruments that the EU employs to strengthen democratic resilience and to counter Russian influence in the three countries. We argue that the EU has a comprehensive and effective range of instruments available, even if Russia has maintained its ability to project especially ‘soft’ power. However, when looking at the overall EU political approach towards these countries, we observe negative effects of the manner in which geopolitical imperatives for enhanced engagement are currently converted into strategy and discourse. More specifically, an insufficiently overarching firm and confident EU political approach towards the Western Balkans undermines the transformative potential of the EU’s impressive toolbox for the region. The brief concludes that by becoming more confident and upfront, sticking to its values and making use of negative conditionality besides offering positive incentives, the EU can pursue a more effective geopolitical approach on transformative terms towards the Western Balkans.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Europe, Serbia, Balkans, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

46. De-risking by promoting digital solutions for green tech: Going Dutch?

Author:: Alexandre Ferreira Gomes, Giulia Cretti, and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, the growing demand for technologies that will accelerate the green transition exposes European countries to risks. Most attention is devoted to strategic dependencies on China for critical raw materials (CRM) and components that are necessary for such technologies. However, the data-driven digital elements and applications used, for instance, to optimise energy use are also relevant, as they intensify cybersecurity and data privacy-related concerns. To de-risk Europe’s strategic dependencies in this field, adopting a balanced approach between ‘promoting’, ‘protecting’ and ‘partnering’ is essential. This Clingendael Policy Brief focuses on the ‘promote’ angle by exploring the role of the Dutch government and private sector in fostering the Dutch digital green-tech industry. With its track record in innovation within the EU, the Netherlands is well placed to boost the commercialisation of digital green technologies through procurement. Moreover, the Netherlands could lead the discussions on defining cybersecurity standards and interoperability norms at EU and international forums.
Topic:: Partnerships, Green Technology, Digital Technologies, and Critical Raw Materials (CRM)
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

47. Navigating the climate crisis together: EU-ASEAN cooperation on climate adaptation

Author:: Sarah Lokenberg and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The environmental, economic and security implications of climate change are unmistakably evident in both the ASEAN and the EU. As building climate resilience is an area where the EU has a solid track record and international outreach, this creates an avenue for closer cooperation with ASEAN. Water management and disaster governance are two promising areas within the field of climate adaptation. This policy brief argues for closer EU-ASEAN cooperation on climate adaptation, emphasising the need for robust institutions, better access to information and improved water infrastructures to increase resilience. To achieve these objectives, currently successful bilateral initiatives could be elevated into broader regional collaboration and the EU could encourage investments in water infrastructures and disaster risk information technologies. Furthermore, the EU could support the creation of regulatory frameworks for improved water management and institutional alignment by providing financial support and technical advice. In the context of US-China rivalry, a strengthened strategic partnership could also serve as a counterbalance to current regional geopolitics.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Water, European Union, ASEAN, Regional Politics, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia

48. Foreign Lobbying in the U.S.

Author:: Ben Freeman and Nick Cleveland-Stout
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: This brief takes a deep dive into a newly available tranche of data tracking foreign influence in the U.S. political process. The new data was released in early 2024 following reforms to the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), which made access to all foreign registrants’ political activities and campaign contributions publicly available. The brief unearths a complex web of foreign influence in the United States — with countries like Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Azerbaijan reaping the benefits of massive political influence campaigns. Influence operations today often follow a standard playbook: outside countries use firms based in Washington to lobby active members of Congress in pursuit of various aims — such as receiving U.S. weapons, currying American favor in regional conflicts, and more general reputation laundering. In 2022 and 2023, FARA registrants reported $14.3 million in political contributions and nearly 130,000 political activities. This relationship between lobbyists representing foreign countries and U.S. policymakers in itself is concerning, raising questions of whether politicians are really prioritizing the interests of their constituents, and of all Americans. To make matters worse, authoritarian regimes represent a majority of the most active countries — including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which placed first and fourth, respectively, among the countries most engaged in political activities under FARA from 2022–23. Greater FARA transparency is certainly a welcome development, but still more can be done to help Americans understand the who, what, and how of the foreign lobbying industry. For one, FARA registrants should be required to report a unique identifier for each office contacted, making it easier to determine lobbyists’ contacts. Greater language specificity in the descriptions of political activities is also needed. In addition, Congress could pass legislation that would introduce civil fines on the underreporting of political activities, although such a step should be accompanied by protections against the abuse of the FARA process.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, Conflict, and Military-Industrial Complex
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates

49. Paying Off Populism: EU-Regionalpolitik verringert Unterstützung populistischer Parteien

Author:: Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: How to break the populist wave? With the elections to the European Parliament ahead, and the Presidential Elections in the US looming, this question bothers policymakers in many Western democracies. Our study shows that regional policies effectively decrease populist support. Specifically, EU Regional Policy investing into the development of lagging-behind regions decreases the vote share obtained by right-fringe populist parties by 15–20 percent. Moreover, regional policy investments increase trust in democratic institutions, and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:: Political Economy, European Union, Populism, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

50. Foul Play? On the Scale and Scope of Industrial Subsidies in China

Author:: Frank Bickenbach, Dirk Dohse, Rolf Langhammer, and Wan-Hsin Liu
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: China makes extensive use of subsidies in order to take a leading role on the global markets in the green technology sectors of electric vehicles, wind turbines and railway rolling stock. According to DiPippo et al. (2022) and recent OECD studies, the industrial subsidies in China are at least three to four times or even up to nine times higher than in the major EU and OECD countries. According to a very conservative estimate, industrial subsidies in China amounted to around EUR 221 billion or 1.73% of Chinese GDP in 2019. According to recent data of 2022, direct government subsidies for some of the dominant Chinese manufacturers of green technology products had also increased significantly - the electric car manufacturer BYD alone received EUR 2.1 billion. The authors point out that Chinese companies are benefiting from further support measures, including subsidized inputs, preferential access to critical raw materials, forced technology transfers, the strategic use of public procurement and the preferential treatment of domestic firms in administrative procedures. The authors recommend the EU to use its anti-subsidy proceeding against BEV imports from China to enter into negotiations with the Chinese government and persuade it to abolish public support measures that are particularly harmful to the EU.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Business, Renewable Energy, Industry, Subsidies, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:: China and Europe

51. Build Carbon Removal Reserve to Secure Future of EU Emissions Trading

Author:: Wilfried Rickels, Mathias Fridahl, Roland Rothenstein, and Felix Schenuit
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • A carbon central bank (CCB) that translates carbon removals into allowances would transform the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) from a fiat allowance to a gold standard system, ensuring unchanged net emissions on the path to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets. • Meeting such expectations would require a CCB with a clear commitment to a net-zero GHG target, but also with the capacity to manage the market on the path to that target. • This requires a strong institutional framework, which could be achieved by integrating the CCB into the European Central Bank (ECB), building on its reputation and capacity. • Given the long lead time to set up such an institution, the European Commission should already take the first steps to fulfil the other requirement, namely building up a large carbon removal certificate (CRC) reserve, which would provide the CCB with the credibility to stabilize the market in the future. • To fill the CRC reserve, the EU should emulate the US approach by immediately initiating resultbased carbon removal procurement as a first key step of a sequential approach to integrated carbon removal into climate policy. • This could be achieved by developing a centralized procurement program, supporting existing procurement programs, such as Sweden’s or Denmark’s, and incentivizing additional EU member states to initiate procurement. • An important prerequisite for this is the ability to bank CRCs that are not yet eligible for compliance with near-term EU climate targets and use them in later crediting periods.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero, and Carbon Central Bank
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

52. EU-China Trade Relations: Where Do We Stand, Where Should We Go?

Author:: Alexander Sandkamp
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, China’s share in European trade has fallen continuously. Nevertheless, the country remains the EU’s largest source of imports (20.5 percent in 2023) and its third largest export destination (8.7 percent). • This apparent dominance of China is put into perspective when incorporating intra-EU trade. For example, Germany – Europe’s largest economy – sent 6.1 percent of its ex-ports to China, but 55 percent to EU members states. For imports, the Chinese and Euro-pean shares are 11.5 percent and 52.7 percent, respectively. • Decoupling the EU from China (i.e. almost eliminating bilateral trade) would permanent-ly reduce European real income by 0.8 percent in the long-run. In terms of gross domes-tic product in 2023, the EU would forego 136 billion EUR of value added every year. Short-term effects are likely to be stronger. • China dominates global production of important products such as laptops and mobile phones as well as raw materials including Germanium and Gallium that are critical for the green energy transition. A trade disruption might thus both delay the energy transi-tion and increase its costs. • To reduce specific dependencies, the EU should intensify its efforts to diversify procure-ment by increasing the attractiveness of alternative suppliers. Finding the courage to move forward in the negotiation of free trade agreements with potential strategic part-ners such as Australia and the Mercosur countries would strengthen the EU’s geopolitical position and increase prosperity among partners.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Geoeconomics, and Decoupling
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Germany

53. EU-NATO relations in a new threat environment: Significant complementarity but a lack of strategic cooperation

Author:: Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The relationship between the EU and NATO has traditionally been characterised by a degree of ambiguity and competition but also by attempts at coordination and cooperation. In the context of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the EU and NATO have played crucial and mutually complementary roles, taking advantage of their respective strengths. However, there are also many areas in which their efforts overlap and closer cooperation would be necessary. Thus far, only small steps in this direction have been taken. Ideally, the EU and NATO would work together to develop a more strategic outlook on issues such as developing Europe’s military capabilities, strengthening the security and defence of membership aspirants as well as managing crises beyond EU and NATO territory. Formal relations between the EU and NATO remain complicated. However, there are ways to work around the existing obstacles to EU-NATO cooperation, not least in the capitals of EU and NATO member states.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:: Europe

54. Nuclear arms control policies and safety in artificial intelligence: Transferable lessons or false equivalence?

Author:: Eoin Micheál McNamara
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Multiple nuclear arms control treaties have collapsed in recent years, but analogies associated with them have returned as possible inspiration to manage risks stemming from artificial intelligence (AI) advancement. Some welcome nuclear arms control analogies as an important aid to understanding strategic competition in AI, while others see them as an irrelevant distraction, weakening the focus on new frameworks to manage AI’s unique and unprecedented aspects. The focus of this debate is sometimes too narrow or overly selective when a wider examination of arms control geopolitics can identify both irrelevant and valuable parallels to assist global security governance for AI. Great power leaders frequently equate AI advancement with arms racing, reasoning that powers lagging behind will soon see their great power status weakened. This logic serves to intensify competition, risking a spiral into more unsafe AI practices. The global norm institutionalization that established nuclear taboos can also stigmatize unethical AI practices. Emphasizing reciprocal risk reduction offers pragmatic starting points for great power management of AI safety. This research is part of the Reignite Multilateralism via Technology (REMIT) project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 101094228.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Cybersecurity, Economic Policy, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

55. China as the second nuclear peer of the United States: Implications for deterrence in Europe

Author:: Jyri Lavikainen
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: China’s nuclear build-up will make it a nuclear peer adversary of the United States in the 2030s. The US will have to deter both Russia and China, as well as other regional adversaries, with forces geared to engage in one major war at a time. If two major wars occur either simultaneously or sequentially, US military capability will be put under great stress. In the event of a second war, the US may find itself in a situation of conventional military inferiority, which it might have to compensate for with greater reliance on nuclear weapons. Since the US remains the ultimate guarantor of European security, its deterrence challenges elsewhere affect European security as well. Thus, even the possibility of war in the Indo-Pacific is a European security issue. European NATO allies can help mitigate the two-peer problem by permanently taking on a greater share of the burden of Europe’s conventional defence. At the same time, the effectiveness of NATO’s nuclear capability must be enhanced. A strategic defeat for Russia in the war in Ukraine would postpone Russia’s ability to pose a military threat to Europe. Ukraine’s NATO membership would further serve to reduce the threat of another major war in Europe.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

56. Foreign investments, de-risking and the EU’s green transition: Mining critical minerals in Finland

Author:: Elina Sinkkonen and Marco Siddi
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The EU is highly dependent on imports of critical and strategic raw materials, both at the extraction and the processing stages. Many of the key supply chains for these materials are dominated by China. In addition, the EU is also dependent on China for many green technologies, such as battery production. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act (2023) sets concrete targets for reducing dependencies in the green transition by 2030. Considering both the level of existing dependencies in critical and strategic raw materials and the fact that the Act does not provide any new funding instruments, the feasibility of reaching the set targets is questionable. The Finnish mining sector presents an interesting case that illustrates the scarcity of domestic financing. Most metal ore mines in Finland are owned by foreign companies, and similar trends apply to the refining and recycling of materials. If the EU wishes to mitigate the risks of becoming dependent on authoritarian countries, foreign investments in sectors relevant to the green transition should be subject to investment screening. For example, the Finnish Act on the Screening of Foreign Corporate Acquisitions does not cover greenfield investments such as investments in building battery factories.
Topic:: European Union, Mining, Supply Chains, Green Transition, Raw Materials, Critical Raw Materials (CRM), and De-Risking
Political Geography:: Europe and Finland

57. EU support for Ukraine: The paradox of insufficient assistance

Author:: Tyyne Karjalainen
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Since Russia started its aggression against Ukraine in 2014, EU member states have lacked the political will to firmly contest Russia’s imperialism in the shared neighbourhood. This was concretized in the rejection of Ukraine’s EU path and the failure to build Ukraine’s military capabilities before 2022. The EU’s response to Russia’s full-scale invasion has been more successful than expected considering its limited capabilities and some past failures of international security assistance. The West is, however, failing to equip Ukraine to win the war. This paradox of insufficient aid leaves Ukraine in limbo, whereby it is enabled to continue the defence effort but without adequate means to succeed. In theory, the EU backs Ukraine’s strategy of non-negotiation with Russia, but the limited military support is pushing Kyiv towards peace talks. EU capitals continue to disagree over the extent to which Russia’s imperialist policies need to be suppressed, and whether small concessions could help to end the war in Europe. Even in the scenario where Ukraine emerges from the war as a truly sovereign state, the risk of future Russian interference, combined with Ukraine’s particular vulnerabilities and the likely challenges of post-war reconstruction, cast a shadow over its immediate future.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

58. The rise of the far right in the European Union: Gaining power not through a sweeping victory, but through creeping normalisation

Author:: Nils Fabian Müller
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: In the 2024 EU elections, far-right parties are expected to win more seats in the European Parliament than ever before. At the national level, too, far-right parties are entering more and more EU governments. Despite these gains, the centre-right European People’s Party, rather than the far right, is likely to play the central role in the EU institutions in the next legislature. The EU’s consensus-based system is a safeguard against the sudden seizure of power by far-right parties. But once they have achieved a certain position, the same system makes it difficult for others to form majorities without them. The EU is therefore facing not a sweeping but a creeping gain in far-right power, as centrist political parties become more open to cooperation, and far-right positions are slowly normalised in political discourse. Paradoxically, the very mechanisms that are supposed to protect national sovereignty (such as unanimity requirements in the Council) are the ones most likely to allow far-right parties to influence EU policy, even if they represent only a minority of EU citizens.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, Far Right, and European Parliament
Political Geography:: Europe

59. The Joint Expeditionary Force in Northern Europe: Towards a more integrated security architecture?

Author:: Antti Pihlajamaa
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The Joint Expeditionary Force – a UK-led defence cooperation format of ten European countries – has gained political momentum since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since the late 2010s, the JEF has shifted its focus towards hybrid issues, increasingly in Northern Europe. While its role in the hybrid sphere is potentially fruitful, the JEF should be wary of taking on too wide a range of tasks. The JEF’s role as a “sub-threshold” actor could complement NATO’s collective defence efforts below Article 5. Hence, the JEF should be more coherently integrated into the Northern European security architecture. Obstacles to JEF-NATO integration have now been removed, as all JEF nations are also members of the alliance. A more explicit division of labour between the JEF and NATO would help Northern European countries to handle the current security environment comprehensively. Such a security architecture, covering all dimensions of the conflict spectrum, would be particularly beneficial for Finland, which shares a long common border with Russia.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Security, Defense Cooperation, and Joint Expeditionary Force
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Finland, and Baltic States

60. EU migration policy and calls for the externalisation of asylum: Intensifying partnerships, exploring new models

Author:: Saila Heinikoski
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: After years of negotiations, the EU has adopted the Pact on Migration and Asylum, and recently concluded migration partnerships with Tunisia, Mauritania and Egypt. While the Pact addresses internal migration rules within the Union, in practice the focus seems to be shifting towards the external dimension of migration. The security situation in Europe reinforces the need to build stronger partnerships. The aim is not to push the countries from which people most often migrate to Europe into partnerships with countries that may ally themselves against Europe, for example by instrumentalising migration. Even before the European Parliament elections, EU member states and political groups started to push the idea of transferring the asylum procedure to third countries. This was notably stated in a letter sent to the Commission in May 2024, signed by 15 member states. Examples of the externalisation of asylum procedures include the outsourced Rwanda model eventually abandoned by the UK, the offshoring model being implemented in Albania by Italy, and the proposed return hub model, whereby rejected asylum-seekers would be transferred to a third country if they cannot be directly returned to their countries of origin.
Topic:: European Union, Partnerships, Refugees, Asylum, Migration Policy, and Externalization
Political Geography:: Europe

61. Russia’s wartime ideology: Radicalization, rent-seeking and securing the dictator

Author:: Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Anti-Western propaganda and the indoctrination of citizens, especially young people, have gradually intensified since the early days of Putin’s rule. However, their radicalization during the war is indicative of the regime’s need for manipulative control rather than reflective of broad support for the regime’s worldview. The most significant shift in the Kremlin’s wartime propaganda has been its codification in school education since the summer of 2022. This timing reveals more about the regime’s need to justify the war and its consequences than it does about any consistent long-term strategy. Key actors behind the ideological codification are opportunistically exploiting the current context. Meanwhile, ideological radicals face little opposition, as most citizens show limited interest in their activities. Despite the regime’s indoctrination practices, the indifference of society suggests that the conditions for a strong anti-Western consensus after Putin will be weak. Such a consensus can only emerge if the future regime, like the current one, is able to maintain satisfactory material conditions and a tolerable daily life alongside its ideological views, whatever they may be.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Radicalization, Democracy, Ideology, Post-Soviet Space, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

62. Europe’s development and peacebuilding cuts: Securing short-term interests, risking long-term security

Author:: Katariina Mustasilta
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Development cooperation budgets are tightening in the EU amid economic pressures and a focus on security and defence. Two broad shifts are taking place in EU and member state investments in peacebuilding and conflict prevention: a general decline in funding and decreasing attention to conflict-affected regions and countries in particular. Local and international conflict prevention and peacebuilding actors need to frame their work to align with the EU’s economic, security and geopolitical interests in order to remain relevant in an era of strategic competition. The implications of the shifts in funding will depend on how changes are implemented and under what types of strategies. A general risk is that policy decisions will be based on a short-term and largely reactive rationale at the expense of a long-term perspective on Europe’s interests.
Topic:: Security, Development, International Cooperation, European Union, Crisis Management, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Europe

63. Demography in the next institutional cycle: Preparing the landing space

Author:: Maria Gargano and Emilia Pauwels
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Demographic challenges, under different narratives, mediatic and political framing, have been more and more present in the European political debate. The Report on the Future of the Single Market, the so called ‘Letta Report’, mentions demographic shifts a dozen times. Many parties in the run up to the elections for the renewal of the European Parliament in June 2024, have inserted this topic in their programmes. The Greens and the European Socialists approached demography through prioritizing the participation and wellbeing of older generations, with the latter also calling for a cohesion policy which reverses brain drain from remote regions. The European People’s Party takes a more structural approach, promising to continue the support for the current Vice President for Democracy and Demography with the suggestion of introducing a coordinating agency, while ECR Group adopts a fertility-centred view, advocating for measures to support birth rates and family values. In addition, the strategic agenda for the next five years provides to address in a comprehensive way demographic challenges and to ensure the support to a thriving longevity society. However, the borders of a landing space in which the different policy areas intertwine with the consequences of demographic change, remain very uncertain.
Topic:: Demographics, European Union, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

64. Back to the Future: Applying Cold War Wisdom to Modern Belgian Defence

Author:: Bernard Siman
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Dust off the Cold War files that are lying under mounds of dust in the archives of our European Defence chancelleries. Bring back willing retired officers to share their knowledge of how things were done over 45 years of a solid and ultimately successful defence posture. There is bound to be a wealth of instructive and useful structures, tools, experiences and models, tested to their limit and refined to near perfection over the period of the Cold War between 1945 to the early 1990s. They can be adapted to suit the need for a rapid build-up of both defence capabilities as well as resilience. Belgium’s obligations in NATO: Cold War lessons in brigades’ formations As the new Belgian government undergoes the trials and tribulation of horse-trading to form a new cabinet, following the recent general election, it behoves all politicians to make the defence of the realm a priority, using the wealth of information contained in the experiences of the Cold War. Do the negotiating politicians need more of a prompt than the NATO summit currently held in Washington (2024), celebrating the 75th anniversary of the most successful defence alliance in history, that coincided with the start of the negotiation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Cold War, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

65. Three Key Concepts for a More Successful Migration Policy in Belgium

Author:: Pierre Verbeeren
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In this policy brief, the author proposes 3 concepts to underpin the new Belgian migration policy, taking into account the new structure of the State. Belgium needs a robust mechanism for dialogue between federal and federated entities. The Regions and Communities have the essential competences for integration. Until our societies find the key to integration, migration policies will remain painful. Finally, our policies must respond to flows of migrants, not to stocks of migrants. These policies must support trajectories rather than groups. A government agreement based on dialogue, integration and flows is more likely to meet the challenges of migration than an agreement that reinforces the federal state’s sovereign power over a stock of migrants.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Migration, European Union, Domestic Policy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

66. Thoughts on Improving EU Governance

Author:: Jim Cloos and Giles Merritt
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The EU is changing before our eyes, and we need to rethink parts of its governance. The institutional change-over in 2024 provides a good opportunity to do that. Streamlining EU governance is key to improving its efficiency and gaining credibility and popular support. We asked close to one hundred EU policy specialists with various backgrounds to answer a questionnaire on ‘Strategy and priority-setting,’ ‘Structures,’ ‘Working methods and red tape, and ‘Communication.’ Our focus is on adjustments short of treaty change. Most of our interlocutors agreed with this stance, but there were also dissenting voices. As one expert remarked: “The small reforms we are talking about here are simple, blurring the minds and creating an illusion that change in procedures can resolve fundamental governance and legitimacy deficits….” It is necessary to clarify our thinking. We do not rule out treaty change and more important institutional reforms over time. But there is no appetite presently for a major debate about treaty change with a Convention and a long negotiation process. Waiting for such a process to bring about much needed governance adjustments would be a mistake. Instead, improving governance now may well lead to more ambitious reforms once the conditions are right or the outside circumstances dictate a much more radical overhaul of the EU.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Institutions, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

67. Re-Empowering Belgian Foreign Policy

Author:: Alexander Mattelaer
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Belgium’s existing foreign policy framework was never designed to cope with the return of war and the decay of the rules-based international order. As a result, the country’s international position is rapidly deteriorating. The incoming Belgian government will face the daunting task of articulating a new foreign policy that is tailored to the demands of a new era. This Egmont Policy Brief makes the case for putting security back at the centre of Belgium’s international outlook, complementing the strong focus on the EU with strong bilateral diplomacy, and reversing the budgetary erosion of the Belgian foreign policy apparatus. By strengthening its diplomatic corps and its network abroad, the new government can help ensure the collective security and prosperity of all Belgian citizens, that is to say: the national interest.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

68. Modi III and the EU, after the Elections

Author:: Jan Luykx
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The May elections in India and the June elections for the European Parliament have resulted in leadership-continuity in Delhi and in EU-Brussels. Does this mean that Europe can expect ‘more of the same’ from the new Indian government and vice versa? Will the EU and India take the opportunity of this new start to re-engage in a more significant way than they have done during the last couple of years? Will they be able to identify common interests, and more importantly, act upon them?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Narendra Modi, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, and India

69. The EU Joint Communication on the ClimateSecurity Nexus One Year On

Author:: Eleonora Milazzo
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: To mark one year since the adoption of the Joint Communication on ‘A New Outlook on the Climate and Security Nexus’ in June 2023, last summer the Belgian Presidency of the EU and the Egmont Institute, together with the EEAS, organised a workshop to take stock of the progress in its implementation. The conclusions reached during the workshop indicate that the Joint Communication has consolidated ‘climate and security’ as a key policy area. The broad approach of the Communication to climate change and environmental degradation, and peace, security and defence, ensures new thematic and operational connections – both at the global level and in specific local contexts. At the same time, in the next policy cycle, it is important to continue to support the operationalisation of this nexus across the whole spectrum of relevant policy areas including human security, conflict prevention, peace, and development and humanitarian action. To achieve this, it is fundamental to strengthen evidence use through existing tools, ensure necessary human and financial resources, devise localised solutions, and engage with a broad range of partners.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Migration, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

70. Russia’s Potential Alliance with Hizbollah: A Strategic Challenge for the EU in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Bernard Siman
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: One year on, the debate has been dominated by Israel, Hizbollah and the potential for regional war in the Middle East. An additional credible scenario has been worryingly absent: that in which Hizbollah and Russia cooperate, not necessarily to the exclusion of Iran as a third leg in a tripartite alliance. This scenario combines geography, history and geopolitics to bring Hizbollah and Russia closer together as a force to recon with. This is a possible development in the Southern Neighbourhood and the Levant that the EU needs to take seriously. Missing Russia’s potential move on Hizbollah could be an historic omission. The decapitation of Hizbollah’s chain of command that preceded the ground incursion, and Iran’s feeble reaction to the devastating assault on its Lebanese proxy, have created a new geopolitical vacuum and reality in the Eastern Mediterranean. Russia may spot an opportunity in the misfortunes of Hizbollah and move on a weakened prey. Will Russia’s direct influence return to Beirut for the first time since the 1770s when it occupied the city for a few months following the naval defeat of the Ottoman fleet at the battle of Cheshme? It is a distinct possibility, especially given Iran’s lukewarm military response, and one that the EU, and member states, must be prepared to deal with, if not pre-empt and prevent.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Eastern Mediterranean

71. Engaging in Fragile Settings: Acknowledging the Cost of Inaction

Author:: Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen, Céleste Ricci, and Edouard Rodier
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On September 30th, 2024, the Egmont Institute, the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), and the Centre for Humanitarian Action (CHA) convened a panel of experts from the humanitarian assistance, development, and peace sectors to assess the new working environment of the incoming European Commission and discuss its implication for the EU response to fragility. The discussion occurred days after the release of mission letters to Commissioners-designate, and provided an opportunity to assess how the EU, with its new structures and priorities, could sustain engagement in fragile contexts. This paper aims to restitute some of the findings and recommendations that emerged during the exchanges, focusing on pathways and instruments for more effective structural responses to fragility during this decisive period.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, State Engagement, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Europe

72. Geopolitics and Geography: A Realigned EU Strategy for Stability in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Bernard Siman
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The new EU Commission should commence its geopolitical thinking by acknowledging that geography is not kind to those who ignore her. The new European Parliament has the unique opportunity to become perhaps the first geopolitical parliament through a similar process. States, political leaders and societies ignore their geographic realities at their peril. Perceptions of location, distance and neighbourhoods can be dangerously distorted when they drift too far off from actual geographic realities. Digital technology, ease of air travel (bypassing the unpleasant geographic realities on the ground), combined with over three decades of peace in Europe, and 50 years in the Middle East, have created the distorted perceptions that somehow Israel’s and Ukraine’s neighbourhood was liberal Europe. These collective perceptions, untethered from their geographic realities, eclipsed perhaps the fact that both have neighbours with whom they have been at differing degrees of long-simmering conflicts. In reality, however, Israel and its neighbours have not succeeded at resolving the conflicts on its very borders, betraying the perception of peace. It is as if those neighbours with whom Israel has been in conflict had disappeared.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Geography
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

73. The Politics behind the EU-Rwanda Deal(s) and its Consequences

Author:: Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the 14th of October, the news emerged that the EU is in the final stages of a discussion to award €20 million to the Rwandan army for its operations in Mozambique – where it is fighting insurgents in the oil-rich Gabo Delgado province. It would be the second time in two years that the EU awards this amount under the European Peace Facility (EPF): it also did so in December 2022. At that time, the decision was met with anger in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as it was already documented by the UN how the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) were supporting the M23 rebellion in Eastern DRC. In the meantime, this support has become clearer, with the last report from the UN Group of Experts from June 2024 extensively documenting the RDF operations with M23 in Eastern DRC. The news of potentially another €20 million is therefore met with anger in Congolese politics and society, primarily directed at the EU. It is a question which puzzles many: why does the EU want to award €20 million to the Rwandan army, in the midst of its violations of international law in Eastern DRC? This piece will unpack this question and reflect on the consequences for the regional dynamics and the EU.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Law, Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Rwanda

74. Why the BRICS Summit in Kazan should be a Wake-up Call for the EU

Author:: Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the growing influence of the BRICS in a multipolar world, as highlighted by their recent summit in Kazan, Russia, and the challenges to effective global multilateralism. Originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa, the BRICS have recently expanded to include Ethiopia, Egypt, the UAE, and Iran. All BRICS members seek to reshape global governance to provide a greater voice for the Global South and strengthen South-South cooperation. However, internal divisions persist: China, Russia, and Iran view the BRICS as a platform to counter Western influence, while India, Brazil, and South Africa pursue ‘multi-alignment’ to diversify their global partnerships. This brief argues that, given the urgency of pressing global challenges, the EU should take the Kazan Summit as a wake-up call to develop and implement a strategy for engaging the Global South in the much-needed reform of global multilateralism. This effort is essential despite the reelection of Donald Trump as US President.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, European Union, Multilateralism, BRICS, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, North Africa, and Asia-Pacific

75. From Carrots to Sticks, to Carrots Again? The EU’s Changing Sustainable Trade Agenda

Author:: Victor De Decker
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Although sustainability criteria include references to human, social and labour rights as well as broader environmental concerns, this policy brief will focus on measures related to carbon emission reduction in relation to the Paris Agreement. This policy brief consists of three parts. First, there will be an overview of how Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) chapters have gained prominence in European Free Trade Agreements. The second part will be dedicated to the autonomous, unilateral EU initiatives the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the Corporate Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). To conclude, there will be a brief analysis of how the EU is working within a multilateral setting on the issue of climate change. In 2015, the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, a landmark framework renowned for its far-reaching vision encompassing 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. These goals collectively constitute the “universal policy agenda,” aiming to address global challenges and foster inclusive economic growth. Notable among these goals is the promotion of sustainable international trade, identified as a pivotal policy instrument contributing to overarching SDGs. The 2030 Agenda positions international trade as “an engine for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction” while actively contributing to the broader pursuit of sustainable development.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, European Union, Trade, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

76. Strengthening the Political Credibility of NATO Extended Nuclear Deterrence

Author:: Wannes Verstraete
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Due to Russian nuclear signaling during its war against Ukraine, there is renewed interest in strengthening nuclear deterrence in a Euro-Atlantic context. The changes in the agreed language in the new North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Strategic Concept, adopted on 29 June 2022 at the summit in Madrid, and the Vilnius Summit Communiqué from 11 June 2023, are examples of this interest. Subsequently, this policy brief focuses on one aspect of strengthening NATO’s extended nuclear deterrence (END), namely how can NATO adapt its nuclear policy and posture to mitigate the uncertainties related to the political credibility challenge of extended nuclear deterrence? Questions regarding the political will to use nuclear weapons by the guarantor to protect and reassure allies in an END relationship is a well-known evergreen that reappears from time to time. Therefore, the author argues that NATO should address this political credibility challenge by strengthening the role of European allies in the nuclear strategy of the Alliance.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

77. China, the West, and the Rest: Who is Enjoying the Shadow of Whom?

Author:: Jasper Roctus and Bart Dessein
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On Tuesday, July 25, 2023, Beijing announced that seasoned diplomat Wang Yi would return to his function as head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a post he had held for ten years (2013–2022). With this, he replaced his predecessor Qin Gang, a so-called ‘wolf warrior’ diplomat who was in office for only a few months. When former premier Li Keqiang (2013–2023) died of a heart attack on October 27, 2023, crowds of ordinary citizens laid chrysanthemum bouquets across the country, mourning for the more open and optimistic times that had characterized the era under Li’s patron, State President and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Hu Jintao (r. 2002–2012). Minister of Defense Li Shangfu was, after an equally short stint in office, replaced by former People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) admiral Dong Jun on December 29, 2023. In the case of Li Shangfu, who was sanctioned by the United States (US) over arms sales to Russia, his resignation was combined with a purge and crackdown on corruption within the rocket force of the PLA. Given the focus on the PLAN in Xi Jinping’s military reforms of the mid-2010s, this could be interpreted as an advantage point for the faction of China’s leader. This signal stands in contrast to the promotion of Hu Haifeng, the son of Hu Jintao, to vice minister of Civil Affairs on January 16, 2024. Keeping the much-speculated removal of Hu’s father during the 20th National Congress of the CCP of October 22, 2022 into mind, one might ask: Who enjoys whose sunlight to step out of the shadows?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

78. Inviting Non-DAC Perspectives to the Funding Gap Discussion – The Need for a Paradigm Shift

Author:: Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen and Edouard Rodier
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The magnitude of the humanitarian funding gap raises major concerns regarding the viability of the aid system as we know it. It threatens millions of persons from having their most basic needs met, and their fundamental rights respected. In May 2023, the European Council’s Conclusion encouraged the EU and its Member States to “intensify their outreach to countries with the economic potential to assume a greater responsibility”. This paper provides initial insights into the approach of non-DAC States to the evolution of humanitarian action in the past decade, as well as into the barriers to further engagement, and the reasons for which these should be overcome. It is largely inspired by a first brainstorming session at the Egmont Institute in Brussels in January 2024, which brought together a wide range of experts and officials from European and international cooperation institutions. It was a necessary step, but not enough to fully engage with non-DAC States.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, European Union, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Europe

79. Breaking the Cycle: The Need for Better Integrated Responses in Neglected Crises

Author:: Edouard Rodier and Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The magnitude of the humanitarian funding gap soars each year, leaving an increasing number of people with no assistance. In 2023, only 35% of the $56bn global appeal was covered, and anticipated budget cuts from major humanitarian donors will likely worsen the situation. Neglected crises that do not receive enough media attention and political support struggle to attract financial assistance at scale for humanitarian, development, peace, or climate initiatives. Following up on the EU Council’s Conclusion from May 2023, which emphasised the importance of reducing humanitarian needs by strengthening the connection between humanitarian, development, and peace efforts (HDP nexus), this paper suggests examining how well the nexus is applied in overlooked and neglected areas. It proposes to take advantage of the 2024 EU election year to explore new approaches to the current model and makes concrete suggestions to support better coordinated and integrated responses.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, European Union, Crisis Management, and Donors
Political Geography:: Europe

80. Defence of Democracy: a Discussion on Democracy and the Path Ahead for a Culture of Participation

Author:: Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the occasion of the European Commission’s release of the Defence of Democracy package (DoD) on 12 December 2023, the Egmont Institute – together with the G1000 – organised a debate focused specifically on the recommendation on the participation of citizens and civil society organisations in public policy-making. As part of Egmont’s wider outreach mandate under the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU and building upon G1000’s longstanding expertise as an innovator in the Belgian democratic landscape and beyond, the purpose was to explore the road ahead for this recommendation, both under the Belgian Presidency , as well as beyond by adoption of the next strategic agenda by the June European Council and the consequential Commission priorities.
Topic:: Civil Society, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

81. A Safe and Sovereign Europe in a Changing Global Context

Author:: Lila Djait
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, with support of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in collaboration with the Representation of the European Commission in Belgium, has organised a series of three foresight workshops and three working dinners. Each session was dedicated to a key strategic challenge, providing a vital platform for dialogue and expert insight sharing among decision-makers from European Union (EU) institutions, the Belgian administration, and civil society. Far from being just a theoretical exchange, the discussions were a targeted effort to further develop strategic long-term thinking, with a vision extending over the next 5 to 10 years. The second round of the foresight workshops and working dinners reflected on ‘A Safe and Sovereign Europe in a Changing Global Context’. In the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape, the EU is undergoing a transformation in its global positioning within the multipolar world order. The perception of the EU as a strongly integrated regional entity in an era of heightened power politics necessitates a more assertive, unified stance in global affairs, as well as a reinforced coordination of the internal and external dimension of EU policies. Yet, translating this perception into a cohesive, integrated approach to global affairs has proven challenging for its Member States. Strengthening EU sovereignty becomes crucial in this altered geopolitical reality posing a paradox: Member States need to transfer some sovereignty to the EU to effectively safeguard their national sovereignty. This is particularly relevant in areas like defence and migration, where national approaches fall short.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

82. China, Sovereign Internationalism, and Silent Pragmatism

Author:: Bart Dessein
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Until the early 1990s, transnational institutions of which the United States (US) and the Soviet Union (SU) were the respective epicenters were formed. Sovereign nation states transferred increasing amounts of decision-making power to these institutions. Post-Second World War internationalization, globalization, and interdependence thus created the bipolar world order of the Cold War era. An important effect of the demise of the SU and the disappearance of the Soviet-led institutions has been that the currently existing institutes of global governance are part and parcel of the liberal democratic world order. The growing economic and geopolitical clout of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has given this country the possibility to reposition itself vis-à-vis this liberal world order. This repositioning has, in its turn, also impacted the foreign policies of the European Union (EU) and its member states. All this makes it worthwhile to reassess the observation of Henry Kissinger who, looking back at the 1950s, stated that “from the outset, Mao [Zedong] had no intention to accept an international system in the design of which China had no voice” worthwhile.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, Sovereignty, European Union, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia-Pacific

83. India and The EU in 2024: Where to Next?

Author:: Jan Luykx
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In this multi-election-year both the Indian Government and the European Parliament will soon face their respective voters. Relations between the EU and India, two powerful actors on the world stage, will hardly be a theme of much importance in these elections. With the present geopolitical turmoil in the world as background, the question arises whether India and the EU should enhance their strategic cooperation to a more significant level. Russia’s war on Ukraine is posing a real threat to peace and security for the rest of Europe and for the Eurasian continent. With China, Russia’s partner against ‘the West’, extending its influence in many parts of the world, while the rest of the world is waiting, often with apprehension, the outcome of the US elections, insecurity and uncertainty have become dominant feelings in many capitals. In this context, should the EU-political level not take note of the potential benefits of closer relations with a more ambitious India?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, India, and Asia-Pacific

84. PESCO: The Last Chance

Author:: Sven Biscop and Beatriz Cózar Murillo
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: To the outside observer, Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) equals the long list of projects rather than the 20 binding commitments that were hailed as a game-changer when PESCO was launched in 2017. At first sight, these 68 projects do not seem to work towards a single objective. Is the end of PESCO clear even to the initiated? It is not, in fact, and that remains the greatest obstacle to success. A (second) strategic review of PESCO is underway, but putting PESCO on the right track requires a fundamental overhaul.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO)
Political Geography:: Europe

85. Promoting European Democracy and Solidarity in a Wider EU

Author:: Lila Djait
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, with the support of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in collaboration with the Representation of the European Commission in Belgium, has organised a series of three foresight workshops and three working dinners. Each session was dedicated to a key strategic challenge, providing a vital platform for dialogue and expert insight sharing among decision-makers from European Union (EU) institutions, the Belgian administration, and civil society. Far from being just a theoretical exchange, the discussions were a targeted effort to further develop strategic long-term thinking, with a vision extending over the next 5 to 10 years. The third round of foresight workshop and working dinner reflected on ‘Promoting European Democracy and Solidarity in a wider EU’. In recent years, the European Union has faced a pivotal juncture in its history, grappling with internal and external pressures that test its foundational principles of democracy, rule of law, and solidarity. The discourse surrounding the enlargement of the EU, adherence to the rule of law, fiscal stewardship, and the need for a cohesive strategy to confront emerging geopolitical challenges underscores the imperative for a strategic re-evaluation.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, Economy, Solidarity, Regional Integration, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe

86. EU Elections: National Democracy at Its Cornerstone?

Author:: Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the eve of the European elections, those who keep a keen eye already know that a big turnaround of the European hemicycle is to be expected, with more than 50% being newly elected. In a recent article, the secondary place occupied by the European elections was highlighted; in Belgium they can even be said to only rank as tertiary due to its collision with national and regional elections on the same day. Although up to 8 member states will see both national and European elections in 2024, this very much gives a unique context to the EU elections in Belgium. Its conclusions however were not new: although the federal government presented itself as radically pro-European, currently holding the Council of the EU’s rotating Presidency, in Belgium as well as abroad, the European election is inherently still very much national in nature: the limited space that is left for it between the other campaigns becomes confused through both themes and politicians being presented at other levels than they (currently) sit.
Topic:: Economics, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

87. Fortifying Europe’s Semiconductor Ecosystem

Author:: Victor De Decker and Patrick Grady
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The chip manufacturing process, though intricate, is divided into three stages: design, production, and final assembly, testing, and packaging. Over the years, companies have started to specialise in a single aspect of one of these steps, making the global chip supply chain a complex web of interdependencies and a high degree of geographic concentration. Despite significant contributions to niches within this supply chain, Europe has historically lagged behind leading regions like the US and Asia in semiconductor production. This enduring gap underscores the need for strategic initiatives like the European Chips Act to bolster Europe’s position in the global semiconductor industry.
Topic:: Manufacturing, Supply Chains, Semiconductors, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe

88. Climate Justice and Human Mobility: Bridging EU Commitments and Policies

Author:: Alicia Scodanibbio
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The complex interplay between human mobility and climate change has emerged as a pressing global concern, with profound implications for social, economic, and environmental stability. This policy brief examines the European Union’s response to the climate-migration nexus, tracing its historical evolution and current challenges. It highlights the need for a human rights-centred approach to policymaking, emphasising the importance of addressing the structural inequalities and power imbalances inherent in climate-induced migration. By integrating climate justice principles, the EU can pave the way for a more inclusive and sustainable approach to the challenges posed by climate change and human mobility.
Topic:: European Union, Institutions, Mobility, and Climate Justice
Political Geography:: Europe

89. Figures on the Billiard Table: EU-China Dynamics in the Wake of the 2024 European Elections

Author:: Bart Dessein and Jasper Roctus
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: While still a powerhouse in its own right, Europe’s relative influence on the world stage has been diminishing over the last few decades. Data, for example, highlight a significant shift in global trade patterns away from the old continent. According to a recent Brookings’ calculation, South-South trade had by 2009, i.e., around the time of the global financial crisis, increased from 10.9 per cent to 25.0 per cent worldwide. South-South trade thus surpassed North-North trade for the first time in world history. Today, 35.0 per cent of global trade is accounted for by South-South merchandise trade, and just 25.0 per cent of global trade is North-North trade. One important factor in this is a surging China-Africa trade. With China’s bilateral trade with Africa rising from 2.7 billion dollar in 1990 to 209 billion dollar in 2022, China has now become Africa’s single largest trading partner.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, Trade, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

90. Looking towards the North: Belgium’s Role in the Arctic

Author:: Karen van Loon
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Arctic region has re-emerged as an area of geostrategic importance and is attracting increasing attention from Belgium. Accelerating climate change has altered living conditions in the region. The prospect of greater commercial activity and rapid technological advances, combined with growing interest from non-Arctic states, means that the region is increasingly connected to, and an integral part of, the rest of the world. As this process unfolds, the Arctic could impact the global balance of power and the conditions of rivalry and competition between the great powers. While this may occur peacefully, the possibility of sudden, rapid changes and unpredictable shocks are no guarantee for stability. The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet. Climate change is transforming the region and creating significant challenges in the areas of security and defence, access and navigation, energy, infrastructure, cooperation, and governance. As a result, states in the region and elsewhere are turning their attention to the Arctic. This has important implications for the region’s security and stability.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Belgium, and Arctic

91. China and Geopolitics as Ontology

Author:: Bart Dessein
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Human beings are storytellers; stories form the cultural framework that gives sense to their behavior and existence. Nations, likewise, “are guided to act in certain ways, and not others, on the basis of the projections, expectations, and memories derived from […] available social, public, and cultural narratives”. Denying a political culture the right to own its story is tantamount to denying that political culture, and the human beings who belong to it, their very right to existence. Territorial integrity and unity After its defeat against European powers in the Opium Wars (1839–1842, 1856–1860), the Manchu government of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1911) was forced into signing the ‘unequal treaties’ (bu pingdeng tiaoyue). This put both the political leadership of the Manchus and the value and effectiveness of the traditional Confucian political ideology to the question. From this, the aspiration developed to create a Han Chinese nation state that would be built on Western political, social, and economic concepts. When the Republic of China (Zhonghua minguo) decided to join World War I in 1917 (in practice, the Chinese participation to World War I consisted of a contingent of some 140,000 laborers – the so-called ‘Chinese Labor Corps’ – who were active in the logistics of the war in Belgium and France), this was partly because of the conviction that this would enable China to position itself as a modern nation state among equals. However, after the war, the 1919 Versailles Treaty stipulated that the territorial possessions Germany had acquired through the ‘unequal treaties’ would not be returned to China, but had to be transferred to Japan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, History, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia-Pacific

92. Demographic Jigsaw: Puzzling Out a Resilient EU

Author:: Maria Gargano
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In December 2019, for the first time, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen assigned a portfolio containing demography as a policy area to Vice-President Dubravka Suica. As the predictions for the European Union are currently looking at a continent whose population median age is rising increasingly fast, the mission letter tasked the Vice-President to lead the response to the challenges presented by the demographic shift. The modus operandi indicated was to be supporting all the groups concerned – especially the children, the old and those living in rural areas. However, this portfolio’s objectives were not supported by an EU-specific competence to act on demography, nor a dedicated budget or service in the Commission. Also at Member States level, this matter remains scattered around different national ministries dealing with health, territorial planning, regional, interior, among others. Nonetheless, the different areas and groups of the population impacted by demographic changes have presented in the past four years multiple entry-points for the European Commission to promote initiatives such as: the care strategy, the child guarantee and lastly the demography toolbox.
Topic:: Demographics, European Union, Resilience, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe

93. Infrastructures, energy and digitalisation: pillars for the sustainable development of transport in the Western Mediterranean

Author:: Mark Furness, Jordi Selfa, Sassi Hammami, Pier Paolo Raimondi, and Michel Noussan
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: With the Russian aggression on Ukraine and the war in Gaza being prolonged over time the Mediterranean region at large is in total turmoil. The Policy Study entitled “Infrastructures, energy and digitalisation, pillars for the sustainable development of transport in the Western Mediterranean” aims at contributing with shared reflections and formulation of policy proposals to the challenges and strategies that the region faces in the field of promoting sustainable development in the transport sector. To this end, the Policy Study delves into this topic from these three cross-cutting dimensions in the Western Mediterranean: infrastructures, energy and environment, and digitalisation. The European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and the Centre for Transportation Studies for the Western Mediterranean (CETMO) have taken on this stimulating task by continuing for a third year the preparation of a Policy Study that involves various authors who are experts in the field, while also unveiling some recommendations of public policy addressed to the Presidency of the Group of Transport Ministers for the Western Mediterranean (GTMO 5+5). Indeed, this publication released as a Policy Study comes within the framework of the Med Think 5+5 network of Western Mediterranean think tanks, a multidisciplinary platform of exchange associated with the 5+5 Dialogue, which brings together policymakers, practitioners and academics from the Western Mediterranean area. Considering transport and logistics as one of the most relevant sectors to foster socio-economic development and regional integration in the Western Mediterranean, the Med Think 5+5 network has been committed to promoting debate and knowledge-sharing on the issue, building upon support and expertise of the CETMO as Technical Secretariat of the Group of Transport Ministers for the Western Mediterranean (GTMO 5+5). As a matter of fact, the Med Think 5+5 convened seminars (2018, 2021) dedicated to the analysis of trends in the Western Mediterranean transport and logistics sectors, organised back-to-back with the GTMO 5+5. In this context, this Policy Study, which is part of the work programme of GTMO 5+5 under the Maltese presidency, aims at giving response to the challenges posed by climate change in the region and how the transport sector can counter it and adapt to it through digitalisation, the transformation and connection of transport with infrastructures and energy.
Topic:: Infrastructure, European Union, Transportation, Energy, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: China, Europe, North Africa, and Mediterranean

94. Towards Inclusive Mediterranean Economies: Advancing Women’s Economic Empowerment in the Region

Author:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: In this first publication of the MedWE programme, the IEMed and the Union for the Mediterranean aim to contribute to applied research on the crucial area of gender equality and women’s empowerment. In the contemporary Mediterranean landscape, women face many obstacles that hinder their complete economic and social advancement. This publication is the result of the conference organised in cooperation with LECE in October 2023 in Barcelona. During this conference, the MedWE program brought together experts, policymakers, and entrepreneurs to explore strategies for overcoming barriers and promoting women’s economic empowerment in the Mediterranean region. Through a series of panel discussions, key challenges, opportunities in the areas of education and workforce participation, entrepreneurship, access to finance, legal and regulatory reform, and gender equality in the work environment were examined. Various stakeholders shared expertise and effective practices to foster women’s economic empowerment across different sectors and levels within the Euro-Mediterranean region. This policy study, combined with the work of the Union for the Mediterranean, intends to establish a new line of work which addresses gender as a central element for advancing towards a more inclusive Mediterranean. Through recommendations that will serve as a valuable resource for policymakers, business leaders, activists, and scholars committed to forging a fairer and more just future for all inhabitants of the Mediterranean, the paper seeks to foster greater gender equality and social inclusion in the region. By identifying key challenges and proposing strategies, it contributes to promote women’s economic empowerment across the Mediterranean.
Topic:: Women, Equality, Inclusion, Empowerment, and Gender
Political Geography:: Europe, North Africa, and Mediterranean

95. Renewable Energy and Electricity Interconnection Megaprojects in North Africa: Prospects for Euro-North Africa Cooperation

Author:: Michaël Tanchum, Hussein Suleiman, Alexander P. Martin, Tristano Sainati, and Jose Rodrigo Juarez Cornelio
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: This Joint Policy Study delves into North Africa’s renewable energy landscape, examining the potential and challenges of megaprojects in the region. With a specific focus on renewable energy production and exports, it explores the intricacies of megaprojects in Morocco, Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia, assessing their successes, hurdles, and future potential. North Africa, especially the Sahara Desert, has vast potential for renewable energy production due to its exceptionally high solar irradiation levels, positioning it as an ideal site for solar energy projects. Economically and geopolitically, there is a strong rationale for Euro-North African collaboration to enhance North Africa’s ability to generate and export renewable energy in a way that benefits both regions. However, despite this significant potential, North African countries have faced numerous geopolitical, economic, societal and infrastructural obstacles in fully capitalising on these resources.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Solar Power
Political Geography:: Europe and North Africa

96. Grand strategy: Alliances

Author:: Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Alliances are usually temporary arrangements among states to counter—or “balance” against—a specific common threat. The United States’ Cold War alliances, by contrast, have become seemingly permanent. States tend to balance power when they face a major threat. Bandwagoning, by contrast, is a particularly poor option for states with the capability to put up a fight. When threatened, states tend to join forces in alliances rather than surrender their national survival to the whims of a more powerful aggressor. Alliances, however, entail costs and risks. These include the dangers of being drawn into war through entanglement and entrapment, the deleterious effect on deterrence by allies that neglect their defense by “free-riding,” and the moral hazard produced by enabling allies to act like “reckless drivers.” Over time, the United States has shifted from a deep skepticism of “entangling alliances” to a global network of security dependents that are treated as an end in themselves, rather than a means to an end. This posture has left the United States overextended, while encouraging allies to neglect their own capabilities and preparedness. The United States can and should significantly reduce its alliance commitments, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, where threats to the U.S. are remote and local powers can balance adversaries. In Asia, the United States should act as a backstop to the regional balance of power rather than a vanguard.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Grand Strategy, Alliance, Balance of Power, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

97. AI Unleashed or Tamed? Decoding Europe’s Bold Leap with the AI Act

Author:: Arianna Jater
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: 2023 saw a boom in generative Artificial Intelligence (AI). However, such a rapid expansion revealed the unpreparedness of governments to handle the unprecedented impact AI systems have on the core values of democratic societies. The European Commission’s AI Act has emerged as the first binding legislation of its kind. It is already clear, however, that simply ratifying the Act will not solve the next challenges. Among those, the immediate one is to ensure that the new AI rulebook is enforced on the national level and that Member States have the resources necessary. Then, the Act, and any future AI legislation, will need to constantly adapt to the ever-changing developments in technology, which now seem to move at a faster pace than ever before. Interdisciplinary approaches and new research disciplines will be needed to analyse the correctness and safety of AI systems, as well as to evaluate their impact on society. Last but not least, the private sector — already employing or only exploring the possibility of introducing AI systems — will need strong support to remain compliant. This brief outlines the state of the EU’s AI Act, discusses concerns within Europe, examines the position taken by the Estonian technology sector and government, and explores the future direction the regulation might take.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Regulation, Legislation, Artificial Intelligence, Private Sector, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe and Estonia

98. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Mobilisation in Wartime

Author:: Andriy Stavytskyy
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its third year, we launch a new series of briefs on various aspects of the conflict. Many of the authors of these briefs are based in Ukraine. The war shows little sign of ending. Ukraine is fighting for its survival and is determined to drive Russia from its territory, while Russia continues to hope that it can mobilise sufficient resources to outlast the west’s support for Ukraine. Although there have been important developments at the tactical level—for example, in the increased use of drones by both sides, in Ukraine’s successes in diminishing Russia’s naval power and in its ability to strike targets inside Russia—there has been little movement on the front lines for many months. Both sides have been forced to adjust, operationally and strategically, to the prospects of a drawn-out conflict. In the first brief of the series, Andriy Stavytskyy examines Ukraine’s need to mobilise, prepare and train half a million men to relieve those who have fought since the start of the full-scale war. This will not only challenge the military but will also have profound economic effects.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Economy, Mobilization, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

99. Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Evolution of Grand Strategy

Author:: Leonid Polyakov
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its third year, we are publishing a second series of briefs on various aspects of the conflict. Many of the authors of these briefs are based in Ukraine. The war shows little sign of ending. Ukraine is fighting for its survival and is determined to drive Russia from its territory, while Russia continues to hope that it can mobilise sufficient resources to outlast the west’s support for Ukraine. Although there have been important developments at the tactical level—for example, in the increased use of drones by both sides, in Ukraine’s successes in diminishing Russia’s naval power and in its ability to strike targets inside Russia—there has been little movement on the front lines for many months. Both sides have been forced to adjust, operationally and strategically, to the prospects of a drawn-out conflict. In the second brief of the series, Leonid Polyakov observes that while Ukraine’s strategic objectives have remained the same throughout the war, the ways and means to achieve them have shifted. Surprise and mass have become less relevant, but technology must be mobilised through society-wide efforts if Ukraine is to prevail. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s longer-term security requires the construction of a credible deterrence posture.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Grand Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

100. Russia’s War in Ukraine: War and Society

Author:: Mykola Nazarov
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 tested the functioning of both Ukraine’s state apparatus and its entire society. During the period 2022-24, the relationships between civilian society, the political elite, and the military have reflected two distinct phases of the war. The first phase occurred during 2022 when Ukrainians were engaged an existential struggle for their nation and was marked by a surge in civic consciousness, a high level of self-organisation, and a constructive relationship between the military, elite, and civil society. From early 2023, however, the war became ‘routinised’. This second phase has been characterised by war fatigue, habituation to war as the new normal, and a division in society between those who are included in the war’s infrastructure and those who mainly focus on their own lives. In the third brief of the series, Mykola Nazarov writes that the consequent changes in trust in the political and military leadership have significantly complicated cooperation between these parts of Ukrainian society. He concludes that overcoming cleavages in society is essential in building the resilience necessary to resist an aggressor and that the consolidation of power as a response to the challenge of external aggression is to be expected, but it is not the optimal management solution. Political plurality, freedom of speech and the ability of the opposition to criticise the authorities without pressure and propose better solutions are necessary for effective governance in wartime. Also, civil-military relations need to be distanced from personalities and based on a robust culture and a framework of inter-institutional cooperation. The Ukrainian system of power has become hyper-personalised, which negatively affects its effectiveness.
Topic:: Civil Society, War, Resilience, Securitization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS