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2601. Russia's Southern Regions: Threats and Opportunities

Author:
Robert Orttung
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Instability in Russia's southern regions poses a threat to the continuation of the country's overall political and economic reform, and to regional stability in Central Eurasia. These regions, which already possess Russia's most fragile local economics, face a variety of problems emanating from the weak and failing states to their immediate south. Most visibly, there is the threat of terrorism, an increasing flow of illegal narcotics from producers in Afghanistan, an influx of contraband goods that wipe out Russian jobs, and illegal immigration. With few resources and extensive corruption among key officials, Russia's southern regions are poorly equipped to deal with these problems. Developing mutually beneficial trade links between Russia's southern regions and its neighbors in Central Asia, China, and Mongolia can mitigate instability and economic stagnation in this region, help to rebuild regional economies, generate income, and better enable governments to provide security and basic human services to their people. The West can support these developments as well as help combat organized crime, target corruption, and improve border security.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Mongolia, and Asia

2602. US-Russian Lessons for South Asia

Author:
Zia Mia, R. Rajaraman, and Frank von Hippel
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
The current South Asian crisis seems to have ebbed, but the underlying dynamic remains. The next crisis will be even more dangerous if South Asia's nuclear confrontation develops in the same direction as the U.S.-Russian standoff, with nuclear missiles on alert, aimed at each other and ready to launch on warning. As Lee Butler, former head of the U.S. Strategic Command, has said, the U.S. and Soviet Union survived their crises, "no thanks to deterrence, but only by the grace of God." Will South Asia be so fortunate?
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, South Asia, and Asia

2603. The European Convention and Defence

Author:
Marta Martinelli, Gerrard Quille, Claire Piana, and Jamie Woodbridge
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The Convention WorkingGroup on Defence, chairedby Michel Barnier submitted itsfinal report on December 102002. This article reviews themajor debates within the groupand how they reflect memberstates' positions, in particular inrelation to the recent Franco-German Initiative.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

2604. The Greek Presidency's Programme for the military aspects of ESDP

Author:
Claire Piana, Jamie Woodbridge, and Dermot Doyle
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
Following the Edinburgh agreement of 1992,Denmark waived its right to act as Presidency in all cases involving the elaboration and implementation of decisions having defence implications. Thus Greece now acts on behalf of Denmark on such issues Speaking to the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament (EP) on 11September, the Defence Minister Yiannos Papantoniou introduced the Greek Programme for the military aspects of ESDP.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Denmark

2605. Putting ESDP to the test: The first crisis management exercise

Author:
Catriona Gourlay and Jamie Woodbridge
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
From 22-28 May the EU carried out its first exercise 'CME 02' to test the EU's ability to take decisions on the use of its military and civilian instruments in a crisis situation. While the evaluation process will only be complete by the end of July, it is already widely acknowledged that the exercise revealed that the EU's procedures are broadly adequate, but there is room for improvement particularly in relation to civil-military cooperation.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

2606. The EU's progress in mainstreaming conflict prevention

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Jamie Woodbridge, and Lorraine Mullally
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
At the Seville European Council in June 2002 the Spanish Presidency will present a report on progress made in the implementation of the EU Programme for the Prevention of Violent Conflicts agreed in Göteborg in June 2001. A key element of the EU Programme is its call for the development of mechanisms to mainstream conflict prevention, i.e. to ensure that all EU policies consistently take into consideration their impact on conflict and are tailored to support peace-building processes. This article provides a preliminary review of actions taken to this end.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

2607. Putting ESDP to the test: The EU's Police Mission to Bosnia Herzegovina

Author:
Jamie Woodbridge, Lorraine Mullally, and Sibylle Bauer
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The General Affairs Council meeting on 18-19 February announced the EU's readiness to deploy an EU police mission (EUPM) to Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) to take over from the UN International Police Task Force (IPTF) in January 2003. Tasked with establishing sustainable policing structures this first EU-led operation will be an important milestone in the operationalisation of the EU's European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP).
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, and Herzegovina

2608. The Spanish Presidency's agenda for conflict prevention and civilian crisis management

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Jamie Woodbridge, and Lorraine Mullally
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
According to the Spanish Presidency's website, its ambitions in the field of ESDP are heavily weighted towards enhancing the EU's military crisis management capability and assessing how ESDP could contribute to the EU's response to the threat of terrorism. Government officials are, however, keen to point out that civilian crisis management will not be sidelined and that the Presidency will take seriously its commitment to implement, review and add new dimensions to the EU Programme for the prevention of violent conflict agreed at the Göteburg European Council in 2001.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

2609. Europe's Moral Attitudes Toward the Holocaust in Light of the Current Defamation of Israel

Author:
Manfred Gerstenfeld
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The moral aspects of Western attitudes toward the Jews and the Holocaust since World War II have not yet been analyzed systematically. However, the current campaign of hatred against Israel and the Jewish people — unprecedented since the end of the war — recalls many elements of the prewar decades. Yet it is too easy to generalize and describe this as one more outburst of the ancient illness of anti-Semitism.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

2610. The Adapted CFE Treaty and the Admission of the Baltic States to NATO

Author:
Zdzislaw Lachowski
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Twelve years after conventional arms control began in Europe, the process is about to enter a new, critical stage as it extends to cover the entire continent. This will eventually rid it of the cold war 'straitjacket' and consolidate political and military security in the space extending from the Atlantic to the Urals. Since the cold war, the situation in Europe and elsewhere has changed radically. The priorities, the rules of the game, and the groups and actors on the political stage are different. Consequently, ways of thinking about security and the options available are also changing. Military security has evolved and its role differs from that of the past. The conventional arms control regime, which was negotiated and agreed during the final stages of the cold war, needed to be modernized to adapt to the developments that have occurred since 1989–90. Consequently, in recent years momentous decisions have been taken regarding both the enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the adaptation of the conventional arms control regime.
Topic:
NATO and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

2611. Creation of the Euro Area: Implications for Economic Statistics

Author:
Paul Schreyer
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
A major event in early 2002 was the arrival of the euro banknotes and coins and the withdrawal of the existing twelve national currencies from circulation. The event has influenced every citizen in the euro area and is clearly a historic change. It heralds a new phase in forging an “ever closer union among the peoples of Europe”. In economic terms, however, the introduction in January 1999 of the single currency after determining the irrevocably fixed exchange rates of the national currencies with the euro was a more important event. It meant that decisions on monetary policy moved from national central banks to the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. This Statistics Brief highlights some of the consequences for economic statistics of the creation of the euro area.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

2612. International — Auto Consolidation

Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Fiat announced a sharp fall in May car sales in Italy on June 5 and its debt is under review for a possible ratings downgrade. The world's sixth-largest car maker is one of many manufacturers facing difficult profitability conditions. Global sales volumes in the industry have remained high, but profits have not followed suit. Mergers, the most rational panacea, are confounded by bitter experience.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2613. International — Weak Dollar

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece is on the international implications of a weaker US dollar. Seventeen weeks of dollar weakness raise the questions of whether the dollar is on a sustained path of decline, and what the implications are internationally. The 6% nominal effective decline in the dollar since January 31 might be sustained due to US financial and macroeconomic factors. Overall, the effect would be positive for Europe and the United States, and might encourage domestic demand growth in export-oriented Asian economies.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2614. Middle East/Afghanistan — Al-Qaida Threat

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Intelligence assessments suggest that the bomb attack on French naval engineers in Karachi on May 8 bore the hallmarks of an al-Qaida operation. There is evidence to suggest that Osama bin Laden and other senior leaders are alive and regrouping, despite significant losses. The campaign against al-Qaida in Afghanistan and elsewhere is entering a new phase.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

2615. European Union — FSAP Progress

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece is on the progress towards completing the Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP). Amid continuing difficulties in key areas, pressure is growing for further advances in completing the single market for capital and financial services.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

2616. International — Global Economy

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
A textbook approach to economic growth suggests the world is in for a difficult period. However, there are reasons to believe that the global economy will defy convention. The global economy will continue to support US external imbalances for the medium term, barring marked deterioration in certain areas of US weakness. However, European integration and Asian development could provide alternative sources of global demand, relieving the current imbalance of global dependence on the US economy.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2617. Eastern Europe — Monetary Integration

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece focuses on the role of ERM II in the East European accession candidate countries. The EU's Exchange Rate Mechanism has emerged as the primary vehicle for the integration of the CEEC-10 accession countries into the European Monetary Union.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

2618. European Union — Insecure Recovery

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece examines the outlook for euro-area economic performance. Despite some indications of improvements in the global and euro-area economies, it is too early to assume that these signify a lasting recovery.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

2619. United States/European Union — WTO Sanctions

Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
US trade officials said last week that EU estimates of damages arising from US export subsidies were exaggerated. EU trade officials have asked the WTO to approve 4 billion dollars worth of trade sanctions against the United States, after the latter lost an appeal before the WTO on the tax treatment of foreign-source income — judged to be illegal export subsidies. Washington must amend its tax laws or face the prospect of retaliatory trade restrictions.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Washington

2620. European Union — ECB Policy

Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece examines the ECB's monetary and communication policy. The Governing Council of the ECB has appeared fairly unmoved either by widespread criticism of its communication policy or by growing pressure for lower interest rates. The ECB has no choice but to remain committed to its price stability mandate, despite the change in economic climate. However, in doing so, it remains vulnerable to the dilemmas posed by the combination of strong independence and a narrow mandate.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

2621. Constitutional Reform and the 'Spirit' of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:
Valery Perry
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
Critics of the General Framework Agreement for Peace (GFAP, or Dayton Peace Agreement) have been pointing out its inherent flaws and inconsistencies from the moment the terms became public, and the real challenges of implementation quickly became clear. For the past six years there have been calls to revisit, reform, or rewrite Dayton through a variety of suggested procedures. The most aggressive voices for change have suggested convening a meeting to develop a ‘Dayton II’, which would have as its main goal solidification of the peace, rather than just termination of the war. Instead, a more subtle approach has been in practice since 1997, when the High Representative’s powers were strengthened and his mandate effectively widened. Under a more aggressive implementation policy, the GFAP would be implemented not purely according to the letter of the accords, but according to ‘the spirit of Dayton’. Defining this ‘spirit’ has been controversial and challenging, and the current debate concerning the ref orm of the Entity Constitutions to comply with the Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) Constitutional Court’s decision on the status and equality of the constituent peoples in BiH will be a significant step in defining both the spirit of Dayton, as well as the spirit and character of BiH as a state. This brief explores this complex issue and its potential implications for local and international politicians in BiH. First, a short background on the Constitutional Court decision is presented. Second, the options currently under discussion are reviewed, within the framework of symmetrical and asymmetrical reform alternatives. Third, the broad relevance of this single issue to the larger issues concerning the legitimacy of the current organization of the state of BiH is considered.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Minorities, Reform, Ethnicity, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe and Bosnia and Herzegovina

2622. The Instrumentalization of Minorities in the Montenegrin Dispute over Independence

Author:
Florian Bieber
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
The possible disintegration of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the SerbMontenegrin tensions since 1997 stand out in the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia by both the lack of violence and the secondary role ethnicity plays in the dispute. While the conflict has historical roots in the relationship between Serbia and Montenegro and the incorporation of Montenegro into the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes after World War One, its trigger was the policy of the Milošević regime towards the junior partner in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, established in May 1992. The Montenegrin prime minister at the time and later president, Milo Djukanović, sought to position himself against the Belgrade authorities and pursued a course of greater autonomy for Montenegro, resulting in the demand for independence. Despite being triggered by the Milošević regime, the dispute did not end with the fall of Milošević on 5 October 2000. In fact, Serb-Montenegrin relations – although there no longer was a threat of armed escalation through the Yugoslav authorities – have deteriorated since the democratic changes in Serbia. Today, the conflict has taken on two distinct dimensions.
Topic:
Governance, Minorities, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and State Building
Political Geography:
Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro

2623. NATO Enlargement: Moving Forward

Author:
Philip H Gordon and James B Steinberg
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The question of whether and how to expand the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) membership is one of the many important U.S. foreign policy issues that must be seen in a new light following the September 11 terrorist attacks. Prior to those attacks, there were strong indications coming from Washington that the Bush administration was planning to support a wide enlargement, notwithstanding strong opposition from Russia and from longstanding domestic opponents of the process. Many of those opponents will now argue even more forcefully that NATO enlargement should be put off or stopped altogether, particularly because Russian cooperation in the war on terrorism is now so crucial.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Washington

2624. Fighting Terrorism: Lessons from the Cold War

Author:
Anatol Lieven
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The war on terrorism, which the United States has now been compelled to undertake, will not greatly resemble traditional war. It will, however, have certain important similarities to the Cold War, or at least to those parts of that struggle which took place in what used to be called the third world. Like the struggle against communism, this will be a long, multifaceted struggle in which the terrorist groups must be combated, but so too must be the factors that impel much larger populations to give those groups support and shelter. As in the Cold War, U.S. military action will be only one element of U.S. strategy, and usually not the most important. As then, a central danger is that anti-Western forces will succeed in carrying out revolutions in important states, seizing control and turning them into more bases for anti- Western actions. It is therefore important that the United States plot its strategy with the Cold War's successes and failures clearly in mind.
Topic:
Cold War, Diplomacy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

2625. The Anti-Terrorism Coalition: Don't Pay an Excessive Price

Author:
Charles V. Peña
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
To prosecute the war on terrorism, President Bush has assembled a diverse coalition of countries for political, diplomatic, and military support. Some of those countries are long-standing friends and allies of the United States. Others have new or changing relationships with the United States. Although there may be a price for their support, America should not pay an excessive price—one that could be detrimental to longer-term U.S. national security interests. And though it may be necessary to provide a certain amount of immediate aid (directly or indirectly) as a quid pro quo for the support of other nations in our war on terrorism, the United States needs to avoid longer-term entanglements, openended commitments, and the potential for an extreme anti-American backlash.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

2626. Special Policy Forum Report: Europe and the Campaign Against Terror

Author:
Josef Joffe
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 6, 2001, Josef Joffe addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum about the many faces of European politics and policy in the context of September 11. Dr. Joffe, a special visiting fellow of The Washington Institute, is publisher-editor of the German weekly Die Zeit, and a contributing editor of Time (International). A frequent commentator on U.S., British, and German radio and television, his essays and reviews have appeared in such publications as Foreign Affairs, the National Interest, New York Review of Books, Times Literary Supplement, Commentary, New York Times Magazine, New Republic, and the Weekly Standard. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

2627. Confusing Signals Out of Saudi Arabia

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On Friday in Europe, Secretary of State Colin Powell is set to meet Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Washington's relationship with the world's largest oil exporter has become strained for reasons more complicated than Crown Prince Abdullah's recent reluctance to meet President Bush at the White House, allegedly because of perceived U.S. bias toward Israel and against the Palestinians. Saudi diplomacy suffers a credibility problem because contradictory statements by top Saudi officials often leave diplomats guessing as to what is the real Saudi position.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

2628. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey In The Twenty-First Century

Author:
Niyazi B. Gunay and Ismail Cem
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 28, 2001, His Excellency Ismail Cem, foreign minister of Turkey, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Over the past four years Turkish foreign policy has been experiencing a transformation. Turkey now sees itself not only as part of Europe but also as part of Asia. The Asian character of Turkey, which has been downplayed for decades, has been revitalized, making Turkish foreign policy more active in the Middle East and the former Soviet Union and helping Turkey to improve relations simultaneously with the Arabs and Israel. Turkey's relations with the European Union are progressing favorably; EU membership is a goal, but not an obsession for Turkey.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

2629. Turkey And The Bush Administration: The Question Marks

Author:
Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Turkey's economic crisis is naturally the leading issue in bilateral U.S.-Turkish relations, and it is almost certainly topping the agenda of today's meetings of Foreign Minister Ismail Cem with Vice President Richard Cheney and other senior officials. Of course, these meetings pose the difficult question of how much Washington should do, if anything, to bail out its strategically vital ally. But this is only one of several uncertainties characterizing U.S.-Turkish relations in the early days of the Bush administration. Because so much of Turkey's importance to the United States derives from its critical strategic location, bilateral relations are greatly affected by U.S. policies toward other states in Turkey's region. Of most concern to Turkey will be the evolution of Bush administration policy toward Iraq, Iran, and Russia, and also toward Europe's nascent bid to develop an autonomous security capacity.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East

2630. Lebanon: Between Hong Kong And Hanoi

Author:
Yossi Baidatz
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In recent weeks, a simmering debate between the two major power centers in domestic Lebanese politics has spilled into public view. This debate pits newly installed Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who represents those who want Lebanon to take advantage of Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon to focus on internal stability, economic reconstruction and securing foreign investment, against Hizballah leader Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, who — with the support of Syria and Iran — champions maintaining Lebanon's role on the front line of the ongoing revolutionary resistance against Israel. This tension was described in the Lebanese newspaper an-Nahar as the choice between "Hanoi" (Nasrallah) and "Hong Kong" (Hariri). As with most Middle East crises, the development of this delicate and flammable dispute carries both risks and opportunities for Lebanon and other players on the Middle East scene.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Hong Kong

2631. Khatami In Moscow Boosts Russian-Iranian Arms Cooperation

Author:
Brenda Shaffer
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iranian president Mohammed Khatami will conduct an official visit to Russia on March 11 through March 15. This constitutes the highest-level visit of an Iranian official to Russia since 1989. There could be an intensification of cooperation between Russia and Iran during Khatami's visit — including on arms sales. In addition to military issues, the delineation of borders along the Caspian Sea will be a focus of discussion. Following talks in Moscow, Khatami will visit St. Petersburg and Kazan, the capital of the autonomous Russian republic of Tatarstan.
Topic:
International Relations and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and Moscow

2632. European Security And Defence Policy After Nice

Author:
Terry Terriff, Mark Webber, Stuart Croft, and Jolyon Howorth
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The Nice Summit will best be remembered for the eponymous treaty, designed to make the necessary institutional reforms to allow the European Union to enlarge, but progress in the sphere of security and defence is no less significant. Following changes that began at St Malo in 1998, the EU member states demonstrated their willingness to share the security burden with the United States. However, this apparently positive move has been greeted with caution at best, hostility at worst in the US, where the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) is sometimes portrayed as a threat to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). What has enabled the EU to produce a common policy on security and defence after decades of failure? What are the prospects for ESDP? What are the implications for the Atlantic Alliance?
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2633. Friendly Schengen Borderland Policy on the New Borders of an Enlarged EU and its Neighbours

Author:
Michael Emerson, Joanna Apap, Nicholas Whyte, Marius Vahl, Jakub Boratynski, and Grzegorz Gromadzki
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
One often hears the term 'Europe' being used interchangeably with 'European Union', giving the impression that those countries that are not destined to become members of the EU in the near future are not part of the same continent. Even after the forthcoming accession by 13 new countries, a significant part of Europe will remain outside the 'EU club'.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

2634. Our Future Southeastern Turkish Frontiers

Author:
Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Today's southeast Turkey has historically been the homeland of a large number of diverse ethnic groups. Nowadays, in many town and villages of the region the largest ethnic group is Kurdish. Turkish officials under Turgut Özal in the 1990s for the first time admitted there may be around 10 million Kurds living in Turkey. Other estimates indicate a Kurdish population of around 15 million. Adding to this figure the additional 10 million or so Kurds living in Iran, Iraq, Syria and the former Soviet Union, the Kurdish people represent the largest ethnic group in the world without a state of their own.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

2635. Issues for Europe -- Post-11 September

Author:
Daniel Gros and Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Ten days now after 11 September, the policy agenda becomes a huge set of interlocking issues – political, strategic, economic. The present note makes a first survey of these issues, and expresses opinions on some of them. However the main purpose is to establish a template or framework to help monitor and evaluate the evolution of the world's response to this massive event. It will be updated and revised in further CEPS Policy Briefs as the story unfolds.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe

2636. Permanent Alliance? NATO's Prague Summit and Beyond

Author:
C. Richard Nelson, Chas W. Freeman Jr., Wesley K. Clark, Max Cleland, Gordon Smith, and Robert L. Hutchings
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With U.S. leadership, the Alliance has undertaken an impressive transformation over the past decade: from the July 1990 London Summit, which heralded a “Europe whole and free,” to the April 1999 Washington Summit, which welcomed three former Warsaw Pact members as new allies, even as NATO forces were engaged in combat for the first time. But the Alliance has not yet realized its full potential as an institution embracing all democratic nations of Europe dedicated to collective defense and embodying the interests and values of the transatlantic community. Moreover, the allies still confront important challenges to their shared goal of bringing lasting security to the European continent as a whole, as well as to the overall vitality of the transatlantic relationship.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and London

2637. Changing Terms of Trade: Managing the New Transatlantic Economy

Author:
David L. Aaron and Donald L. Guertin
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The economic relationship between the United States and the European Union (EU) is in the midst of a significant transition. In the past, the dominant element of that relationship was trade. This was only natural, given their large share of the global trading system: the United States generates 19 percent of world trade, and the European Union 20 percent. Moreover, the United States is the EU's largest trading partner, while the EU is the single largest importer into the United States and the second largest market for U.S. exports. But in recent years, several new elements have become more prominent in the transatlantic economic relationship, bringing with them both challenges and opportunities.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2638. The Rapid Reaction Force: The EU takes stock

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Jamie Woodbridge, Lorraine Mullally, Annalisa Monaco, and Natalie Pauwels
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
On 19 November EU Foreign and Defence Ministers gathered in Brussels for the Capability Improvement Conference (CIC) to assess progress made in filling the capability gaps to meet the Helsinki Headline Goal (being able to deploy 60 000 men in less than 60 days and to sustain them for at least one year). The CIC confirmed that the EU should be able to carry out the whole range of crisis management tasks by 2003, but cautioned that further efforts must be made if it is to be able to carry out complex operations without undue risk. In response to the shortcomings identified, Member States have agreed on a European Capability Action Plan to gradually advance national and multinational solutions.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

2639. The EU takes on Terrorism

Author:
Marta Martinelli, Catriona Gourlay, Lorraine Mullally, Sibylle Bauer, and Natalie Pauwels
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The terrorist attacks on the United States on 11 September have added a sense of urgency to the elaboration of a European Union policy on terrorism, something that had already been in the pipeline for a number of months under the auspices of the Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) Council and the Commission's Directorate- General for JHA. While the immediate policy response of the EU mainly reflected these third pillar initiatives, it is likely that the 11 September attacks will lead to a re-evaluation across the EU policy spectrum. This article outlines some of the areas that could be considered prime candidates for action by the EU as part of its overall counter-terrorism strategy.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2640. Europe Moves Forward on its Own Missile Proliferation Agenda

Author:
Simon Taylor, Sibylle Bauer, Jens Mosegaard, Sharon Riggle, Thomas Sköld, and Philippe Manigart
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The missile defence debate has gained serious momentum in Europe since US President George W. Bush took office in January 2001. Reactions in Europe to US missile defence plans have been negative, ranging from scepticism to outrage, with a slight softening of positions in recent weeks .The EU has had no common position on the issue but has now reconfirmed its commitment to multilateral solutions to the threat of missile proliferation with a declaration which aims to reinforce preventive regimes.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2641. Conflict Prevention Takes Centre Stage

Author:
Catriona Gourlay and Natalie Pauwels
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The Göteborg European Council endorsed the Swedishled EU Programme for the Prevention of Violent Conflicts. The Programme is the result of the Swedish Presidency's drive to put conflict prevention on equal footing with, while distinguishing it from, the development of EU crisis management capabilities. It sets out ambitious goals and a broad mandate for further action, identifying over 20 actions to be elaborated under successive Presidencies. The success of the Programme nevertheless depends on its implementation by future Presidencies, Member States and the Commission.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

2642. The Fuss About Turkey

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Natalie Pauwels, Sharon Riggle, and Thomas Sköld
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
Agreement on EU-NATO cooperation is vital to the development of the common European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) since the EU plans to rely on access to certain common NATO assets for EUled crisis management operations. Turkey, a key non- EU European NATO member, argues that it is underrepresented in ESDP structures and is threatening to block such an agreement unless the EU adopts new mechanisms to further involve it in ESDP decision-shaping and planning. This article explores the grounds for Turkish dissention, EU resistance and whether there may be room for compromise.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

2643. Developing a Proactive Approach to EU Conflict Prevention: The first steps

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Sibylle Bauer, Jens Mosegaard, Sharon Riggle, Kelly Baumgartner, and Otfried Nassauer
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The Commission and the Secretary General/ High Representative (SGHR) Javier Solana presented a joint paper outlining challenges and recommendations for improving the effectiveness and cohesion of action for conflict prevention to the Nice European Council in December 20011. The Swedish Presidency now plans to build on these recommendations to develop a concrete programme for conflict prevention to be agreed at the Göteborg European Council in June 2001. This article identifies some of the elements that such a programme might contain.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

2644. International — Unusual Securities Trades

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met on Wednesday, September 26, in Vienna. The uncertainties associated with the international oil market have been greatly compounded by the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Middle East

2645. International — OPEC Meets

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met on Wednesday, September 26, in Vienna. The uncertainties associated with the international oil market have been greatly compounded by the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Middle East

2646. European Union — Enhanced Cooperation

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This piece focuses on the use of flexibility in European integration. Flexibility — the possibility for a number of member states to deepen cooperation without the others — has always been a sensitive subject in discussions about the advancement of European integration. As the next wave of enlargement approaches, a number of member states have been keen to ensure that provisions for flexible cooperation are strengthened, a goal achieved in the Treaty of Nice.
Topic:
Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

2647. Mercosur/European Union — Tariff Talks

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The outlook for trade ties between the EU and Mercosur. EU-Mercosur trade negotiations earlier this month gave a vigorous push to commercial negotiations between the two regions. The EU presented a detailed proposal for liberalising EU-Mercosur trade during the next ten years. Trade talks between the EU and Mercosur have now reached a more advanced stage than the talks on the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA).
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

2648. European Union: Belgian Presidency

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The rotating EU presidency this week passed from the Swedish to the Belgian government. The Belgian presidency faces a considerable test of nerve as it attempts to square its constitutional ambitions for further political integration with the increasing unpredictability of European public opinion. The new public mood of caution towards European integration has resulted in a notable ambivalence on the part of Verhofstadt. While stressing the importance of a completely open debate, Verhofstadt is also using the more closed approach of close consultation between governments and their representatives in preparing keynote proposals for the Laeken European Council, which, in reality, is the only way of reaching solutions.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

2649. European Union — Enlargement Post-Gothenburg

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
At the Gothenburg European Council on June 15-16, EU leaders set themselves the objective of starting eastward enlargement by 2004. Small but significant changes in the wording of commitments on enlargement were agreed after intensive diplomacy by the Swedish EU presidency. The EU now has a very tight timetable for concluding negotiations with the front-runner candidates for membership. Although the candidates have made good progress, many political obstacles must be surmounted during the next 18 months, with the Irish referendum result creating further complications. However, the most important negotiations will not be those with the candidates, but those between the member states.
Topic:
Diplomacy and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2650. European Union — Takeover Tensions

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The proposed takeover bids directive may be lost unless the differences between the European Parliament (EP) and the Council of Ministers are resolved by June 6. The ongoing negotiations between the Council and the EP in the conciliation committee may be made more difficult by Germany's recent decision to renege on the Council common position on the directive. The move was received with incomprehension in other EU member states. Germany so far stands alone in its attempt to change the directive. Nevertheless, its decision could give MEPs enough ammunition to avoid a compromise in the conciliation committee, and hence to allow the directive to fail. More importantly, Germany's decision also draws attention to the various level-playing field issues still to be addressed in the area of corporate control through greater harmonisation of company law.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

2651. Italy — Berlusconi Victory

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The outcome of last Sunday's general election is now clear. Although the centre-right has won substantial majorities in both houses of parliament, both the Alleanza Nazionale and the Northern League suffered setbacks. The League failed to pass the threshold needed to qualify for a share of the quarter of seats in the Chamber of Deputies allocated by proportional representation. For the time being, Forza Italia, and therefore Berlusconi, who dominates the party, is in firm control of the centre-right coalition. If Berlusconi can retain his authority over the coalition for the next five years, it could assist in stabilising a still highly-fractured and potentially unstable party system.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

2652. United States — 'Plan Colombia'

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Colombia, and South America

2653. Communists of Moldova and the Future of the Country's Ethnopolitical Conflicts

Author:
Pritt Jaerve
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
The plans of the communists of Moldova to take their country to the Russia-Belarus Union and to give Russian the status of an official language, if carried out, may contribute to the resolution of existing ethnopolitical conflicts in Moldova. However, the same plans might lead Moldova towards a federation, trigger ethnic mobilisation of the titular nation and create new dimensions of ethnopolitical tension in Moldovan society.
Topic:
Communism, Minorities, Ethnicity, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

2654. Testing Macedonia

Author:
Farimah Daftary
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
The Macedonian state is being tested from all sides: by the NLA which is waging guerrilla warfare, by the ethnic Albanians who are presenting great demands, and by the international community which is exercising pressure on it to address ethnic Albanian grievances. But the Macedonian population, too, is being tested on its ability to resist provocation to engage in acts of inter-ethnic hatred; it must therefore demonstrate that the claim to being a model of peaceful inter-ethnic relations is well deserved. At the time of writing, a state of war has been averted. Furthermore, on 14 May, after lengthy negotiations, a new "government of national unity" faced its first day of work. The idea to form a broad coalition was set forth in March 2001 as a means of addressing the crisis with the participation of all political parties with representation in Parliament. However, there were many issues to be resolved between the two main (ethnic) Macedonian parties, the VMRO-DPMNE and the opposition Social Democratic Alliance of Macedonia (SDSM), especially over the issue of early elections and distribution of ministry seats. Negotiations with the PDP were also tough (the PDP was demanding a ceasefire against the NLA before joining the coalition but it was more probably weighing the losses in NLA-sympathiser votes that it might incur by joining the government). While the support of the ethnic Albanian community of Macedonia for the violent tactics of the NLA seems to be quite low still, all will depend on whether the politicians will manage to put personal interests aside and reach an agreement as to how to address their grievances. It would be dangerous on the part of the Macedonian government to underestimate the readiness of ethnic Albanians in Macedonia to take up arms. What is also needed, in addition to high-level political dialogue, is a broad civic debate at the intermediate and grassroots level. Already, many initiatives have been launched to establish roundtables on inter-ethnic relations involving political leaders, minority representatives, experts, civil society, etc. In order to create the right conditions for genuine dialogue, what is needed is a common civic framework for resolving the question of inter-ethnic relations. The MHC calls for a citizen's approach as well as adherence to multiculturalism rather than bi-culturalism which would allow for identification with more than one ethnicity. The urgency of such a broad dialogue on legislative reform, decentralisation and other issues is evident for what is at stake is stability as well as longterm prospects for majority-minority accommodation not only in Macedonia but also in the whole of Southeast Europe. It is unfortunate that violence was needed to place the issue of inter-ethnic relations at the top of the Macedonian political agenda
Topic:
Multiculturalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, Diversity, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Europe and Macedonia

2655. Croat Self-Government in Bosnia - A Challenge for Dayton?

Author:
Florian Bieber
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
In addition to these factors contributing to the establishment of the Croat selfgovernment, economic/criminal factors most certainly played a role.22 As the response of the HDZ to the takeover of the Hercegovačka Banka seems to suggest, the economic interests of the party and its leadership were threatened by the change of government in Bosnia and the more assertive policies of the international community in Bosnia. The Croat self-government is beyond doubt a considerable challenge to the Dayton Peace Accords. The demand of the Croat leadership for a third entity can only be dismissed with difficulty in light of the existence of a Serb entity. Despite this development being a challenge to the existing arrangement, the argument can be made that some effects have been positive. The call by the HDZ for Croat soldiers to desert the Federation army and the public display of the parallel Croat power structures have given the High Representative an opportunity to render the Federation more effective by excluding those officials, who have not only now, but throughout the past five and a half year, obstructed the implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords.
Topic:
Governance, Minorities, Leadership, Ethnicity, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Croatia, and Bosnia and Hercegovina

2656. Armenian Minority in Georgia: Defusing Interethnic Tension

Author:
Natalie Sabanadze
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
July 2000 was the deadline for the withdrawal of two Russian military bases in Vaziani (near Tbilisi) and in Gudauta (Abkhazia). The agreement on Russian military withdrawal was reached at the 1999 OSCE summit in Istanbul, according to which the first two bases would be withdrawn by July 1 of the current year, to be followed by the two remaining bases in Javakheti (Southern Georgia) and Batumi (Western Georgia) in the near future. Russia did not meet the deadline on the Gudauta base, which has become the main source of renewed Georgian-Russian political confrontation over the past few days. However, as the talks on withdrawal intensified, the issue of the Javakheti base also came to the fore. Javakheti is the southernmost region of Georgia where the local population is predominantly Armenian. Similar to Abkhazia, the situation in Javakheti is very sensitive and could be exacerbated by the Russian military withdrawal which is strongly opposed by the local Armenian population. This at first sight benign case of base closure is thus likely to involve broader issues of regional political alliances, competing national interests, minority policies and a potential risk of yet another ethnopolitical confrontation in the region. Among the most common descriptions of Javakheti found in both journalistic and scholarly literature is that of a "potential zone of conflict", "area waiting to explode" and in the more radical accounts 'the second Nagorno-Karabakh'. Despite many contrary predictions, Javakheti managed to maintain peaceful interethnic relations and to survive in peace and relative stability. However, in order to maintain the fragile peace and cooperation much has to be done in terms of minority protection and power-sharing structures within Georgia. What follows is a brief discussion of the Armenian minority in Georgia in the context of ongoing regional geopolitical changes, interests and vulnerabilities of the states involved. In addition, Javakheti here is regarded as a zone of ethnopolitical tension which requires serious efforts, and well-developed preventive measures to avoid its deterioration into a zone of conflict.
Topic:
Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, and Protected People
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Georgia

2657. Permanent Normal Trade Relations for China

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In what has been described as its most important vote this year, the U.S. Congress will soon decide whether to provide permanent normal trade relations to China. A vote is required because, after 14 years of negotiations, China is poised to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO). Assuming China concludes its bilateral negotiations with the European Union by June or July, entry is likely before the end of the year. The cornerstone principle of the World Trade Organization is that members provide each other unconditional Most Favored Nation trade status, now called Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) in U.S. trade law. Current U.S. law precludes granting PNTR to China; as a result President Clinton has asked Congress to amend the law. A negative vote would have no bearing on China's entry into the World Trade Organization, but it would mean that U.S. companies would not benefit from the most important commitments China has made to become a member. Gaining the full range of benefits is particularly important in light of the large and growing deficit the United States faces in its trade with China (Figure 1). A positive vote would give U.S. companies the same advantages that would accrue to companies from Europe, Japan, and all other WTO member states when China enters the World Trade Organization. It would also provide an important boost to China's leadership, that is taking significant economic and political risks in order to meet the demands of the international community for substantial additional economic reforms as a condition for its WTO membership. A positive vote would strengthen bilateral economic relations more generally. That may help place a floor on the broader bilateral relationship, which continues to face critical challenges on security issues, stemming largely from tensions between China and Taiwan, and on human rights issues.
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Asia

2658. The Great Game, Round 2: Washington's Misguided Support for the Baku-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline

Author:
Stanley Kober
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
One of the top foreign policy priorities of the Clinton administration during the last few years has been strong support for building a pipeline to transport oil from Baku, Azerbaijan, to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The administration has argued that this pipeline, bypassing other routes going through Russia and Iran, would be the best way for the economically struggling countries of Central Asia to get their energy exports to market, thereby underpinning their newly won independence. Washington also stresses the supposed benefit of having the pipeline run through the territory of a NATO ally, Turkey.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Baku

2659. A Foreign Policy Report Card on the Clinton-Gore Administration

Author:
Jonathan G. Clarke
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The foreign policy record of the Clinton-Gore administration deserves a less than stellar grade. At the end of the Cold War, there was an extraordinary opportunity to build a new relationship with a democratic Russia; restructure U.S. security policy in both Europe and East Asia to reduce America's burdens and risk exposure; and revisit intractable Cold War–era problems, such as the frosty relations with Cuba, Vietnam, and North Korea. The administration's performance must be judged within the context of such an unprecedented opportunity for constructive change.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, Asia, North Korea, and Vietnam

2660. Arms Control and Missile Defense: Not Mutually Exclusive

Author:
Charles V. Peña
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Traditionally, strategic offensive arms control and ballistic missile defense have been viewed as mutually exclusive. During the Cold War, the general belief was that anti–ballistic missile (ABM) systems would call into question the ability of the superpowers to successfully survive a first nuclear strike and inflict sufficient damage with a second strike. That is, missile defense could allow one superpower to launch a first strike and then use its defenses to intercept a second strike with the other superpower's surviving warheads—thereby undermining deterrence and stability. Furthermore, the thinking was that this situation would result in a dangerous offensive arms race as each side sought to counter the effects of the other's defenses.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

2661. Assessing The Arab 'Yellow Light' On A Palestinian; Unilateral Declaration Of Independence

Author:
Kenneth W. Stein
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
President Clinton will again meet his two Camp David partners—though not yet in scheduled three-way talks during this week's Millennium Summit, six weeks after the conclusion of their inconclusive Camp David negotiations. In the August interval, each side sent leaders and diplomats jetting about Europe, Asia, and the Middle East offering their spin on what was offered at the summit, what went wrong, and what needed to be done next. In stark contrast to the effective news black-out that governed Camp David, world leaders have, over the past month, been pitched one, two, or even three sets of briefings about each side's views and where the negotiations should go from here.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arab Countries

2662. Special Policy Forum Report: An Islamist Internationale?, Transnational Links Among Islamist Radical Groups

Author:
Reuven Paz
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Israeli-Palestinian dispute is no longer the main issue on the Islamist agenda. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1990 and the development of national and Muslim-Christian disputes in various parts of Europe and central Asia assisted in the globalization of the Islamist struggle. In addition to the continuing troubles in Afghanistan and Kashmir, the 1990s have seen warfare in Bosnia, Kosovo, Chechnya, and parts of Indonesia (most prominently East Timor). All this brought about a transfer of the main Islamist struggle from the Arab world to the margins of the Middle East. Afghanistan has become the meeting point between the Arab Islamists and their Asian colleagues in the developing globalization of the Islamic radical struggle.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, Indonesia, Middle East, Arabia, and Kosovo

2663. Europe and the Mediterranean: The Barcelona Process Five Years On

Author:
George Joffé
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In November 1995, the European Union signed a wide-ranging declaration with the twelve littoral states of the South Mediterranean at the end of a major conference in Barcelona. The declaration outlined an agreed policy for future relations between the EU and its Mediterranean partners which sought to create a zone of shared stability, prosperity and peace. This policy is designed to condition relations throughout the Mediterranean on a new basis of partial economic integration and cooperation over mutual security issues, together with support for regional political, cultural and social development. It has extremely ambitious objectives and represents a new departure for the European Union, although the means proposed to achieve it have been modest. Now, almost five years after its inception, it is appropriate to consider to what degree it has begun to realize the objectives it set for itself, given the fact that they should be achieved by the year 2010.
Topic:
Security and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Barcelona

2664. An Ever Larger Europe

Author:
Julie Smith
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Thirteen countries are currently seeking to join the European Union. Several more countries, including some Southeast European states that have already signed Stability and Association Agreements with the EU, not to mention some of the Caucasian and Central Asian members of the CIS, have also expressed a desire to be considered for membership at some point in the future. While those former Soviet states, with the possible exception of Moldova, are unlikely to join, the EU is committed to enlarging to the south and east.
Topic:
International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

2665. Gas For Oil Markets

Author:
Koji Morita
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Public projections by the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the European Commission suggest that, with present policies, world consumption of gas will roughly double by 2020, taking about 5% of the primary energy market from other fuels. About half this gain will be at the expense of more carbon-intensive fossil fuels, mainly coal, but the other half will replace carbon-free nuclear energy. The net effect on the growth of greenhouse gas emissions will therefore be small. For comparison, gas consumption increased in the past 20 years by almost 80%, at the expense of other fossil fuels. Half the increased gas demand is projected for developing countries, compared with 45% of the increase over the past 20 years and their present share of about a quarter of total world gas consumption.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2666. European Views of National Missile Defense

Author:
Stephen Cambone, Christopher J. Makins, Ivo Daalder, and Stephen J. Hadley
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A delegation under the auspices of the Atlantic Council of the United States visited Berlin, Brussels, London and Paris from 10 to 14 July 2000 for discussions with government officials and nongovernmental experts about the proposed deployment of missile defenses of U.S. national territory. The purpose of the trip was to engage a range of European leaders in in-depth discussions of a broad range of issues associated with missile defense. This report reflects the visitors' assessment of what they heard and the conclusions they drew in terms of U.S. policy and relations with the European allies.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2667. EU Finalises Military Tasks: Much Left To Do

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Sibylle Bauer, Sharon Riggle, Thomas Sköld, and Jensen Frederik
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
At the Nice Summit on 8 December, EU member states agreed that it is time for the EU to 'play...its role fully on the international stage' by cementing a new military dimension to its structures. The 60-page 'Presidency Report' (doc#14056), attached at the end of the Presidency Conclusions, exhaustively describes the modalities of the new common European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), and describes how the new structures will enable the EU to carry out the so-called Petersberg Tasks. [This article includes excerpts from a longer paper, available soon at www.cesd.org].
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

2668. Military secrecy in the EU Council provokes legal challenges

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Sibylle Bauer, and Jensen Frederik
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
On 26 July 2000 EU Ambassadors voted to introduce new rules denying the public access to classified, secret or top-secret documents containing information on military or non-military crisis management. The decision was adopted in August without further consultation of other EU institutions or any parliamentary or public debate. The Council has since been accused by some member states and the European Parliament (EP) of bringing secrecy into the EU by bypassing normal decision-making procedures and excluding an entire category of documents from the public — challenges which will ultimately be resolved in the European Court of Justice.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

2669. The EU Rapid Reaction Facility: A quick fix or fudge?

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Sibylle Bauer, Christopher Bollinghaus, Hiroko Kosaka, and Russell Pickard
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
One of the shortcomings of European Union (EU) crisis management is the inability, as a direct result of the rigidities imposed by the pillar structure, to mobilise resources to support properly co-ordinated, coherent and timely nonmilitary interventions. The report on Non-Military Crisis Management of the EU, prepared for the European Council in Helsinki in December 1999, called for the establishment of a Rapid Reaction Facility (RRF) to overcome these structural obstacles. The Commission has since developed a proposal for a Council Regulation to establish such a Facility but outstanding questions about its legal basis and its sources of funding may delay its adoption.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

2670. The European Union's New Crisis Management Capability

Author:
Raimo Väyrynen
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
To the surprise of most observers, the European Union is moving quickly toward the establishment of its own crisis management capability. In its June 1999 meeting in Cologne the European Council concluded that the Union must have "the capacity for autonomous action, backed up by credible military force, the means to decide to use them, and a readiness to do so, in order to respond to international crises without prejudice to actions by NATO." The Council pledged to develop an effective EU-led military crisis management capacity in which all EU members, both NATO and non-allied countries, would participate on an equal footing. The new force will perform the so-called Petersberg tasks: humanitarian and rescue operations, peacekeeping, and the use of combat forces in crisis management, including peacemaking.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2671. CIAO: United States — 'Plan Colombia'

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, and Colombia

2672. European Union — Sanctions against Austria lifted

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The decision last week to lift political sanctions against Austria came as a relief to both Vienna and most of the fourteen EU member states participating in the action. Imposed in protest at the inclusion in government of the far-right Freedom Party (FPOe), the sanctions had rapidly became a source of difficulty and embarrassment. Crucially, nobody had been clear about what the precise aims were, or in what circumstances the sanctions would be suspended: there was no exit strategy for either side.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Austria, and Vienna

2673. Northern Ireland — Ulster Prospects

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The political outlook in Northern Ireland has, at least in the short term, been transformed by the political document released by the British and Irish governments and the subsequent statement issued by the IRA. This involves the exchange of a detailed timetable towards the implementation of the Good Friday agreement — including reform of police and security arrangements in the province — for a commitment from the IRA that at least part of their weaponry can be subject to external inspection. This bargain is likely to be enough to permit devolution to be restored shortly. The Northern Ireland peace process has been at an impasse since the British government suspended the operation of devolved institutions on February 11. It did so because the IRA had offered no clear indication as to how it might initiate the process of arms decommissioning — a situation that left Ulster Unionist leader and First Minister David Trimble extremely exposed in his own party. The narrow margin by which Trimble was re-elected leader by the Ulster Unionist Council in March, and that body's further insistence that the proposed reform of Northern Ireland's police force — the Royal Ulster Constabulary — be diluted before devaluation was restored, appeared to plunge the peace process into a state of permafrost.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and North Ireland

2674. International: Techno-Stock Troubles

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The current bubble in 'technology stocks' has led to official concern about over-enthusiasm by investors and the banking consequences of a sudden price collapse. The first signs of the long awaited shift emerged last week, as investors shifted from fashionable technology, media and telecoms (TMT) stock back into traditional 'old economy' blue chips. Capital flooding in from Europe and Japan to the United States has been attracted to booming markets led mostly by these stocks. The rest of the market (misleadingly known as the 'old economy') has risen comparatively little.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Europe

2675. Northern Ireland: Impasse

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Ulster Unionist Council re-elected David Trimble as its leader on Saturday but by an unexpectedly narrow majority of 57% to 43%. The party also voted to retain the name and insignia of the Royal Ulster Constabulary — the predominantly Protestant police force in the province — a precondition, along with an IRA commitment to decommissioning, a precondition for restructuring an all-party executive that was suspended two months ago. These are impractical terms for negotiations. The Good Friday agreement is now functionally defunct.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Europe and Ireland

2676. Northern Ireland--Cooperation Ceasefire

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The IRA announced last night that it was suspending all cooperation with the International Commission on Decommissioning and withdrawing all proposals that it had previously placed before it. Tony Blair, the UK prime minister, and Bertie Ahern, his Irish counterpart, will meet today amid a crisis atmosphere. While there is no immediate prospect of an outright return to violence by the IRA, the Good Friday agreement, if not the peace process itself, is at risk.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and North Ireland

2677. Colombia -- Peace Process

Author:
first last
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The recent advances in the peace process have brought the possibility of a peace settlement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia closer. International mediation and support will be key for the successful completion of the process and the implementation of any peace agreements. The United States has expressed its interest in supporting peace, but considerations will continue to be dominated by anti-drugs and security issues. European cooperation will also be important. Despite the progress made so far, the pacification of the country remains a distant goal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and South America

2678. Russia—Duma Dust-up

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Russia's new State Duma ended its first day's work in an uproar on January 18. An unlikely alliance of pro-Communist and pro-Kremlin parties was in control of the chamber's agenda, while an equally improbable alliance of smaller factions vowed not to participate in the running of the chamber until their demands for a greater say were met. This unpromising start presents acting President Vladimir Putin with both a short-term boost and a fresh political challenge. It also highlights one of Boris Yeltsin's more surprising political legacies.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2679. United Kingdom—Euro Issues

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The formal position of the United Kingdom government that it favours entry into the European single currency 'in principle', but subject to five economic tests and popular sanction in a referendum, masks increasingly deep splits among senior ministers as to what exactly this formula means in terms of practical timing. A profound disagreement between the treasury and the foreign office, personified and led by their respective politicians, exists and is likely to intensify both in the run-up to the next UK election and throughout the next parliamentary term.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

2680. The International Financial Architecture

Author:
Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The recent financial crises in many emerging market economies have raised anew questions about the appropriate exchange-rate regime and the use of capital controls as policy instruments. The use of both mechanisms should be tailored to each country's unique circumstances. Fixed exchange-rate mechanisms, such as dollarization (adopting the dollar as legal tender in place of the national currency), are suited to small open economies or those desperate to import monetary stability. Larger economies, such as the European Union (EU) and the United States, should allow their currencies to float. Intermediate regimes that fall between fixed- and floating-rate regimes—such as bands, baskets, and crawls (See Figure 1 for definitions)—are still appropriate for some countries. Certain well-targeted restrictions on the composition of capital flows might be appropriate for some emerging-market countries as temporary measures when inflows are particularly high.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2681. NATO at 50: The Summit Beyond

Author:
Ivo H. Daalder
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
At the threshold of a new century, NATO needs a new purpose. A NATO maintained solely as a hedge against an uncertain future (including a possibly resurgent Russia) will become increasingly marginal to the interests of its members. A shift in emphasis to defending common global interests risks magnifying discord among Alliance members. Instead, NATO's purpose should now be to extend security and stability to all of Europe. This will require placing more emphasis on the ability to conduct crisis management operations in the region and taking practical, visible steps to keep the door to NATO membership wide open.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

2682. Can Public Service Survive The Market? Issues For Liberalized Electricity

Author:
Walt Patterson
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
As governments around the world liberalize their electricity systems, they are overturning the guiding principles that have shaped electricity for the past century. Yet they continue to regard electricity as a public service. The consequent inconsistencies and contradictions are already evident, and intensifying. This Briefing Paper outlines the implications. It is based on a research project now under way in the Energy and Environmental Programme, entitled Keeping the Lights On: Public Service in Liberalized Electricity. For details please see the back page.
Topic:
Energy Policy and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

2683. State And Region: The Spanish Experience

Author:
David Bright
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
One of the most interesting consequences of the development of the European Union has been the stimulus it has given in recent years to the rediscovery of region within European states. As the supra-state functions of the European institutions in Brussels have burgeoned and the intrinsic sovereignty of the state in Europe has declined, so regions have acquired an ever greater social and political significance. Of course, in some cases, the state was traditionally federal in nature—as with Germany\'s Länder system—and, politically at least, regional aspirations have been satisfied. In the past two decades, however, regional aspirations have expanded into social and cultural spheres that require a new, defined political context. Even in such long-established states as the United Kingdom, such pressures now have to be acknowledged as sub-state factors enter into the complex array of political elements that go to make up the contemporary Union. In this context the Spanish experience is illuminating, both in the way it demonstrates how such tendencies should be accommodated and in the way in which regional populations respond. It is, in fact, a paradigm for a development that will become inevitable and universal as the power of the state declines within the wider structures of contemporary \'Euroland\'.
Topic:
Government and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

2684. Accommodating Turkey In ESDP

Author:
Nathalie Tocci and Marc Houben
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Can Turkey's demands for equal treatment with EU member states be reconciled with the EU's demand for autonomous decision capacity? This commentary analyses the Turkish position and assesses the theoretical and practical possibilities for accommodating Turkey's demands in the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP).
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

2685. Five Years To The Euro For The CEE-3?

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In terms of meeting the fiscal Maastricht criteria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are better placed today than were some of the current euro area members from the “Club Med” (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) at a comparable point in time leading up to their joining EMU. The CEE-3 should thus be able to qualify for full membership by early 2006, following a decision by the EU as early as 2005.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, Poland, Hungary, Spain, Italy, and Portugal

2686. Health Not Wealth

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Health, and not wealth, should be the decisive criterion when considering the prospects of the Central and Eastern European candidates for EU membership and the capacity of the EU to enlarge. Viewed from this perspective, the outlook is promising. The CEECs are still very poor, compared to most of the existing EU members, but they are also much more dynamic. Their growth rates are generally expected to remain around 4-5% for the foreseeable future, compared to about 2-3% for the EU. This still implies that full catch-up in terms of GDP per capita will take decades, rather than years, but full catch-up is not the relevant goal if one is concerned about enlargement. Experience in the EU has shown that problems are much more likely to arise from established rich member countries with stagnant economies (Belgium in the 1980s and part of the 1990s) than poor, but more dynamic states (e.g. Portugal and Ireland today). The fact that most of the so-called 'periphery' is now experiencing stronger growth than the 'core' confirms that EU integration benefits poorer countries even more.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Belgium, Portugal, and Ireland

2687. Effects of the Berlin Summit on Own Resources, Expenditures and EU Net Balances

Author:
Jorge Nuñez Ferrer
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Berlin Summit has been concluded with the suspicious outcome in which every Head of State declares victory. The tone is not so victorious by the Presidency, however, which honestly declared that Germany didn't “win the lottery”. There is reason for suspicion if, after long and arduous discussions to reform policies and reduce EU expenditure, member states declare satisfaction at the result. Something must be amiss, if painful reforms appear not to hurt. In fact, after preliminary calculations and some political considerations, there are grounds to suspect that the reforms proposed are less than satisfactory.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Berlin

2688. A Primer on the Balance Sheet of the Eurosystem

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The ECB has just published the opening balance sheet for the Eurosystem, which is the official name given to the ECB plus the 11 national central banks of the euro zone. All 15 national central banks are part of the ESCB, but the participation of the four outsiders is purely formal. The balance sheet, which is reproduced at the end of this Commentary, reveals two very interesting facts: During 1998, the national central banks of the euro zone increased their holdings of dollar foreign exchange reserves by the equivalent of about 38 bn euro. This means that they de facto intervened consistently to support the dollar during that year. The ECB starts with huge foreign exchange reserves: 237 bn euro plus gold worth 100 bn euro. This is much more than the amount held by the US Federal Reserve and constitutes a major share of the reserves held by all OECD countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

2689. EMU and Labour Markets: Vae Germania?

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The outcome of the first round of wage negotiations in post-EMU Germany sheds some new light on the old question: What impact will the euro have on labour markets and unemployment? Economists would say that it depends on the structure of the bargaining process. In wage-setting, it seems that either one of the two extremes of full centralisation or complete fragmentation is conducive to low inflation and unemployment.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

2690. The First Weeks of the Eurosystem: An Initial Assessment and a Look Forward

Author:
Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With the successful launch of the euro, the start of ESCB monetary policy operations and the operation of Target payment system, the previously national interbank bank markets have been integrated at once in a unified euro interbank market. Outstanding public debt was redenominated in euro, trading conventions harmonised and all EMU stock markets have started quoting in euro. This does not, however, bring us at once to a US-style capital market. Euroland remains profoundly different from the US in the weight of the regions and the importance of banks.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2691. AIDS and Developing Countries: Democratizing Access to Essential Medicines

Author:
Tom Barry, Robert Weissman, and Martha Honey
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Africa and the developing world are facing an HIV/AIDS crisis equated by the U.S. surgeon general to the plague that decimated Europe in the fourteenth century. Combinations of available pharmaceuticals-too expensive for nearly all of the infected people in the developing world-could enable many afflicted with HIV/AIDS to live relatively normal lives. Compulsory licensing and parallel importing policies could help developing country governments make essential medicines more affordable to their citizens.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Europe

2692. OECD Short Term Indicators Databank: March 1999

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
There is a considerable range in OECD national tax levels, as tax revenues as a percentage of GDP show. The tax bur- den in 1996 exceeded 45% of GDP in five countries, all in Europe – Den- mark, Sweden, Finland, Belgium and France. In contrast, five countries had tax levels below 30%: Mexico, Korea, Turkey, Japan and the United States. Mexico's total tax revenues were nearly 22 percentage points below the OECD average of 37.7%.
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Europe, Turkey, Korea, and Mexico

2693. The European Union and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Gerald M. Steinberg
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Europe, both in terms of the individual states and collectively through the 15-member European Union, seeks to play an active role in the Middle East peace process. There are many reasons for this - substantive, political, and symbolic.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

2694. The Role of Politics in Contemporary Russian Antisemitism

Author:
Betsy Gidwitz
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
In recent months, since shortly after the collapse of the Russian ruble in August 1998, an upsurge of antisemitism in Russia has generated a startling increase in emigration of Russian Jewry. Among Jews in Israel and many diaspora countries, concern has grown about the fate of those Jews remaining in Russia, the largest of the post-Soviet states.
Topic:
Politics and Religion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2695. Barak's Complex Foreign Policy Agenda

Author:
Gerald M. Steinberg
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Prime Minister Ehud Barak will not get a period of grace or a post-election honeymoon. Immediately upon taking office, he faces a number of pressing issues. Many of these are domestic - including religious-secular relations and economic concerns.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

2696. Israel's Relations with the Vatican

Author:
Aharon Lopez
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
During the ceremony of the presentation of my credentials as the Ambassador of Israel to the Holy See on April 10, 1997, I told His Holiness that, actually, this was not my first connection with the Vatican. In fact, when I served as Ambassador of Israel to the Republic of Cyprus, in one of the ceremonies there, I was approached by the non-resident Ambassador of Outer Mongolia, who asked me whether I represented the Holy See in Cyprus. Of course I answered that I represented the State of Israel. Then, looking at my head, he remarked: "Oh, you are right, sir; now I can see the difference in the color!" Of course, he was referring to my skullcap.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Vatican city

2697. Economic Survey of the Netherlands, 2000

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
In its sixth year of expansion, the Dutch economy has continued to perform well, with strong real GDP growth and job creation. But some tensions have appeared, and inflation is close to the upper limit of price stability as defined by the European Central Bank. The outlook is broadly favourable as GDP growth is expected to slow only moderately: this would provide a welcome cooling-off of the economy. However, fiscal policy needs to remain particularly vigilant concerning the risk of overheating, and stand ready to tighten promptly, within the budgetary framework, if so needed. A major challenge facing the authorities is to deal with the important unfinished agenda in the structural area through speeding up the process of structural reform. The announced income tax reform is particularly necessary, not only to improve fiscal efficiency and equity, but also to redress incentives to work. This would enhance labour market policies aimed at increasing the outflow from social security schemes, and would boost the active labour force and potential output. Other necessary actions include reforming the health care system and introducing more market forces in public transport and some other former public utilities. Taking advantage of the favourable conjunctural situation, the authorities should move ahead forcefully along all these lines, thereby contributing to the continuation of strong job creation in an environment of sustainable economic growth.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

2698. EMU One Year On

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The euro came into being under mixed auspices. On the one hand, convergence efforts in the run-up to monetary union, particularly in the fiscal area, had helped bring inflation and interest rates down to historically low levels. On the other hand, growth, which had only just started to recover in earnest after several disappointing years, was slowing down in the wake of a series of emerging market crises. The macroeconomic policy mix prevailing in 1999 combined monetary easing and modest fiscal consolidation. It contributed to sustain domestic demand, limiting the extent of the deceleration. With a brightening external environment, growth picked up vigorously in the second half of the year. In hindsight, the new regime's début is commendable, especially when recalling the gloomy predictions of some sceptics and taking into account that this first year has been a period of learning-by-doing for all agents. Major challenges lie ahead, however, both as regards long-run fiscal sustainability in the face of population ageing and as regards market structures. The policy tradeoffs facing European policymakers are harsher in some important ways than those confronting their counterparts across the Atlantic, because of deeply ingrained labour and product market rigidities. Those are being addressed in various ways, and tangible progress is being made. Nonetheless, reform efforts should be stepped up to raise economic performance significantly above the record of the 1990s.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Europe

2699. Economic Survey of Germany, 1999

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The new government has set itself the ambitious tasks of lowering unemployment, modernising the economy and the social system, and securing the long term viability of the budget and the health and pension systems. Ecological goals have been given equal prominence in order to ensure the environmental sustainability of economic development. In some fields there has been progress. However, the fiscal package needs to be fully implemented to put public finances on a sustainable path and to create a tax regime that is more business friendly. These policies should be underpinned by structural reforms that strengthen future growth prospects. Such policies can benefit both macroeconomic performance and future fiscal outcomes. While short-term growth prospects are already improving, unemployment remains a major problem. With respect to its strategy for reducing unemployment, the government is seeking to obtain consensus, inter-alia on an employmentfriendly wage policy, via round-table talks with the social partners. It is important that a consistent set of policy instruments emerge that establish clear links between policies and ultimate policy goals. For Germany to attain the employment, growth and environmental aims commensurate with its key position in the European economy, requires not only favourable macroeconomic conditions, including aggregate wage developments, but a policy emphasis which more effectively enhances labour-market flexibility, as well as structural reforms that strengthen individual initiative, economic choice and the role of competition. Since structural and macroeconomic policies tend to have synergies which make them mutually reinforcing, achieving a more flexible and dynamic use of resources will help to assure progress towards the country's social, budgetary, environmental and economic goals.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

2700. Economic Survey of Iceland, 1999

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The Icelandic economy has expanded rapidly over the past five years, bringing output to well above its potential. Clear signs of overheating have emerged, with unemployment below 2 per cent, inflation picking up and a large current external deficit. These developments are projected to continue, raising the risks of a wage-price spiral and financial instability. To guard against such risks, a significant tightening of monetary policy is required, with less priority attached to the exchange rate as a target for policy. This should be complemented by a medium-term fiscal discipline aiming at achieving a structural budget surplus. Such a course would help cope with long-term care spending that will rise with ageing. On the other hand, except for government employees, pensions should not constitute a burden for public finances, as, for the main, they will be provided by the private sector. To enhance future growth prospects, it will be important to maintain and extend the fishing quota regime in the face of legal threats and to increase competitive forces, especially in the telecommunications industry.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Europe and Iceland