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Begin New Search Political Geography Europe Content Type Policy Brief

2401. Topics in Terrorism: Toward a Transatlantic Consensus on the Nature of the Threat

Author:
Jason S. Purcell (ed) and Joshua D. Weintraub (ed)
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Brussels Conference on “Topics in Terrorism: Toward a Transatlantic Consensus on the Nature of the Threat” was the first of three conferences whose principal purpose was to explore specific themes associated with the world-wide effort to cope with and counter the threat of terrorists. Held in three different European capitals (Brussels, Vienna, and Budapest), the conferences drew on divergent presenters and audiences. Each conference convened subject-matter experts from the United States and Europe with the express intent of considering various perspectives on some of the most difficult challenges facing the transatlantic community. While reaching a consensus on each of the major topics would certainly have been a desirable outcome, where a consensus proved elusive, a major objective was to gain a better understanding of the divergent views and the rationale that underpins those views.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Vienna

2402. The New Partnership: Building Russia-West Cooperation on Strategic Challenges

Author:
Frances G. Burwell
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
By the beginning of 2005, the improvement in relations between Russia and the West had lost momentum and come to a standstill, as serious concerns emerged in the United States and Europe about developments in Russia. European and U.S. commentators who disagree over economic policies and Iraq find themselves in broad critical consensus about Russian political and economic evolution. Will the term that has been moribund since the death of the Cold War — “containment” — emerge as an option for those in the United States and Europe making policy toward Russia? Already some argue for isolating Russia from Ukraine, Georgia, and other former Soviet republics; will they encourage the building of a new fence around Russia? Or will there be a new effort at engagement, albeit one that is more cautious about Russia's future in the West?
Topic:
Cold War, Development, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

2403. Re-Engaging Russia: The Case for a Joint U.S.-EU Effort

Author:
Frances G. Burwell
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For the past decade, both the United States and the governments of Europe — including the European Union — have sought to engage Russia with the goal of having a stable and democratic country increasingly integrated into the western political and economic system. Recently, however, many U.S. and European observers have become concerned that the Russian government seems to be moving in a more authoritarian direction, centralizing government decision-making, while backsliding on some reforms and neglecting others. Although economic growth has been robust, there is less confidence about the application of the rule of law. Instability persists in many of the states neighboring Russia, offering opportunities for regional conflict and for misunderstanding between Russia and the West.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

2404. Securing Europe and Its Neighbours

Author:
John Edwin Mroz
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Europe's policy makers currently face two key challenges: finding new methods for governments to work better together, and identifying new ways for businesses and civil society to protect the continent's citizens, infrastructure and economies from the threat of terrorism. The terrorist attacks in Madrid on 11 March 2004 and London on 7 July 2005 were vivid reminders that not enough has been done.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe and London

2405. Local Government Gender Mechanisms in the GPKT Micro-region

Author:
Kristina Hadzi-Vasileva
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The areas constituting the GPKT micro-region (fYR Macedonia,1 Serbia and Kosovo) belong to some of the least developed countries in Europe. Transition to market economies has been delayed because of armed conflicts, exclusion from the international community during periods of conflict, as well as the slow process of privatization (in the case of fYR Macedonia and Serbia). Despite the fact they once used to be a part of a single country, the current connection between these areas is unfortunately their characterization of political instability and weak institutions, problems compounded by the common struggle to transform their respective economies.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Macedonia

2406. Belarus : Is a Peaceful Turn Towards Democracy Possible?

Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Described as the last remaining dictatorship in Europe, Belarus is scheduled to have a presidential election in 2006 that could prove crucial to the future of the country. After nonviolent democratic revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine, questions arise about similar changes in Belarus: Is a peaceful transition to democracy in Belarus possible? And if so, what would be needed to make that happen?
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Georgia

2407. A Perilous Democratic Exercise: The Referendum on the Constitutional Treaty in Denmark

Author:
Catharina Sørensen and Anne Mette Vestergard
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Danish vote on the EU\'s Constitutional Treaty will take place on September 27. The Danes have been there before, but the referendum is a difficult discipline to master. Various aspects play a role and make predictions volatile. The present brief, updated regularly, takes a closer look at the Danish debate and its context.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

2408. Sleight of Hand: India, Iran, the United States

Author:
Conn Hallinan
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
This is a tale about a vote, a strike, and a sleight of hand. For the past six months the United States and the European Union (EU) have led a full court press to haul Iran before the UN Security Council for violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NNPT) by supposedly concealing a nuclear weapons program. Last month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted to declare Iran in "non-compliance" with the Treaty, but deferred a decision on referral to the Security Council until Nov. 25.
Topic:
United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, India, and Asia

2409. Iran's Security Challenges and the Region

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The following summary addresses key aspects that emerged from the discussion at the Ninth Liechtenstein Colloquium on European and International Affairs held in Triesenberg, Principality of Liechtenstein on March 17-20, 2005. The colloquium focused on Iran and included an in-depth discussion of the nuclear issue. Since the LCM is conducted under strict off-the-record rules, no attribution is provided. Attending participants included high-level Iranian offi cials involved in the ongoing negotiations with the EU, as well as representatives and experts from the United States, the EU, Russia, and India.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and India

2410. The European Security Strategy: An Evolutionary History

Author:
Alyson J. K. Bailes
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The adoption by the European Union (EU) of its first official and comprehensive security strategy—'A Secure Europe in a Better World'—in 2003 may be seen (aside from any practical results it leads to) as a conceptual and procedural turning point in the development of the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). Set against its specific political background, it was also an important stage in the developing self-awareness and ambition of the EU as a player in the global arena. The European Security Strategy (ESS) has already attracted perhaps more than its fair share of exegesis, comment and debate. Too often, however, it has been treated almost in the style of literary criticism, divorced from its historical, institutional and short-term political context. This Policy Paper illuminates the latter dimensions of the document's significance and lays out a framework for considering and monitoring its future impact.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

2411. The Mirage of a United Europe

Author:
Robert Vickers
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
To most Americans, the prospect of a united Europe has long been viewed not only as a favorable development, but even as an increasingly inevitable one. Our common political, religious and cultural heritage, democratic governments, market economies, and Cold War experiences have all contributed to the perception of Europe as a friend and natural ally of the United States, occasional differences not withstanding. The formation of NATO in 1949 gave a military tone to the developing political alliance between the U.S. and Western Europe, and the beginnings of united Europe in the early 1950s was generally viewed in Washington as a favorable trend that would make Western Europe a stronger economic partner and a stronger ally in the struggle against Soviet Communism.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, America, Europe, Washington, and Soviet Union

2412. Economic Survey of United Kingdom, 2005

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The stability and resilience of the economy has been impressive and labour and product markets are among the most flexible in the OECD, but structural economic performance judged against a range of indicators can be further improved.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

2413. Economic Survey of Slovak Republic, 2005

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Sound macroeconomic policy, assertive product, capital and labour market liberalisation, and fundamental tax and welfare reform have transformed the Slovak business environment in recent years. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has responded particularly well, becoming the prime engine of capacity and productivity growth, and helping to put the economy on a strong and well-balanced growth path.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

2414. Economic Survey of Norway, 2005

Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The Norwegian economy continues to recover strongly from its 2002-2003 slowdown. Low interest rates, competition induced productivity gains, high investments by the booming oil sector, terms-of-trade gains and supportive macroeconomic policies are the main drivers. Inflation is low and labour inputs in terms of hours worked are rising briskly. Strong growth is likely for the remainder of this year and possibly during 2006.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Europe and Norway

2415. Economic Survey of euro area, 2005

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Economic policy in the euro area pursues the objectives of achieving solid economic growth, a better performance of labour markets and restoring sound public finances in the context of a single monetary policy which aims at maintaining price stability. Although inflation has remained just above the ECB's definition of price stability, longer-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored to price stability. However, progress towards the other goals has been disappointing thus far partly owing to adverse shocks such as higher oil prices or exchange rate shifts. On unchanged policies and with population ageing the euro area's potential output growth is set to decelerate over the next decades and eventually stabilises at around 1% per annum by about 2020, as illustrated in the following scenario:
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

2416. Economic Survey of Greece, 2005

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Recent and prospective growth performance is good. The Greek economy has continued to grow vigorously, buoyed especially by low nominal and real interest rates and an expansionary fiscal policy stance, largely reflecting public works in preparation for the Olympic Games in 2004. The outlook is for some slowing activity in the near term, triggered by fiscal consolidation, but a subsequent pick-up in growth thereafter. However, inflation is likely to remain above the euro-area average, to a certain extent eroding Greece's international competitiveness. Fiscal consolidation is the main priority. The fiscal audit, performed by the new government in close collaboration with Eurostat has revealed a very loose fiscal policy since the late 1990s, culminating in a general government deficit of 6% of GDP in 2004. The government debt-to-GDP ratio has remained stubbornly above 100%, despite uninterrupted strong growth during the past eleven years. Reining in government deficits is of vital importance both to meet the fiscal objectives of EMU, and to prepare for demographically-related budget pressures that will start emerging in a decade's time. Moreover, sustained high public debt makes Greece relatively more vulnerable to changes in interest rates and market sentiment, while it's servicing threatens to crowd out public spending in areas important for Greece's ambitions to reach income levels elsewhere in the EU.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

2417. Economic Survey of France, 2005

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
France has high productivity per hour worked and a sophisticated social welfare system, but it also suffers from low labour force participation and high structural un employment. This poor labour market performance contributes to a persistent budget deficit which is exacerbating, rather than alleviating, the fiscal pressures arising from ageing. Rising public debt threatens fiscal sustainability. It is partly a result of insufficient public expenditure control an d insufficient public understanding of the need to meet long-run challenges as well as short-term targets. Aspects of the labour code designed to protect employees, and some aspects of the system of social transfers have had some unintended but perverse consequences leading to structurally high levels of unemployment and low participation rates. Dynamism and growth of activity and employment are held back by a lack of competition in a large number of service sectors.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe and France

2418. Economic Survey of Sweden, 2005

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The Swedish economy has undergone impressive changes and has delivered a remarkable surge in productivity since the mid-1990s. Consequently, per capita incomes are slowly making up the ground lost in earlier decades. Labour market performance, however, has been less inspiring. Employment rates have yet to recover to their 1990 peaks and hours of work need to increase to support the welfare state.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe and Sweden

2419. Economic Survey of Italy, 2005

Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
A modest recovery is under way. A recovery has been under way since early 2004 and is expected to proceed at a moderate pace in 2005 and 2006, with domestic demand continuing to rise faster than GDP. Real growth is projected to remain somewhat slower than the EU average. The gap in consumer price inflation is expected to widen again in 2006. The current-account deficit has increased and export market share losses were substantial until recently. Employment growth has been impressive throughout the slowdown, but the growth of productivity, including that of total factor productivity, has been very weak.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

2420. Economic Survey of Spain, 2005

Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The Spanish economy has enjoyed many years of brisk growth and has recovered swiftly from the recent international slowdown. Activity has been boosted by low interest rates and strong job creation, and underpinned by structural reforms and a sound fiscal policy. As a result, the income gap with the euro area steadily narrowed. However, tensions have arisen that could undermine the strong growth performance as inflation is relatively high, eroding competitiveness, while the surge in house prices does not yet show signs of abating. Also productivity gains have remained meagre and unemployment is still high.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

2421. Economic Survey of Belgium, 2005

Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The dominant challenge for Belgium in the years to come is to prepare for population ageing. This entails putting in place policies to attenuate its effects on economic growth and public finances. The few years left before large numbers of baby boomers retire provide a window of opportunity to push ahead with such policies and so preserve the essential elements of the system of social protection. First, further budget consolidation is required to put public finances on a sustainable path. Second, reforms are needed to increase employment rates, especially for the older working age-population, school leavers and ethnic minorities, and to slow the decline in working time. Finally, reforms are required to raise productivity growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

2422. Economic Survey of Denmark, 2005

Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Denmark has been near the top of the OECD's income rankings for many years. It has the most equal income distribution among member countries, partly because of its comprehensive welfare state. Given an ageing population, the key economic challenge is to maintain growth in living standards while preserving the welfare system. To achieve this, Denmark will need to raise labour supply and productivity growth. If they do not improve from here, the growth rate of per capita GDP will be dragged down to just ½ per cent per annum within a couple of decades.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

2423. Economic Survey of Iceland, 2005

Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Iceland's impressive economic performance has continued to show the benefits of the refocusing of policies on financial stabilisation and market liberalisation in the 1990s. The most recent recovery, which began in 2003, has been much more vigorous than expected, as buoyant household demand has reinforced the stimulatory effect of the large-scale aluminium-related investment projects underway. Imbalances in the economy – specifically, the large current account deficit and inflation pressures – have mounted and – with GDP growth averaging over 5% in 2004-06 – they may well be similar in size to those seen in the last overheating episode in 2000-01, which resulted in a mild recession. Limiting instability over the next few years is a demanding task for macroeconomic policymakers, and efforts underway in this regard need to be strengthened. There are also challenges for structural policies, notably with respect to the proper assessment of future investment projects and in the environ-mental area. In a longer-term perspective, sustaining the faster productivity growth that structural reforms in the 1990s have brought about will require further action, especially in the education and competition policy fields.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

2424. (Danish) Economic Survey Denmark 2005

Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Danmark har i mange år ligget nær toppen på OECD's rangliste over BNP pr. indbygger. Danmark har den mest lige indkomstfordeling blandt medlemslandene, delvist so m følge af dets vidtfavnende velfærdsstat. I lyset af befolkningsaldringen er den primære økonomiske udfordring at fastholde væksten i levestandarden og samtidig bevare velfærdssystemet. For at opnå dette er det nødvendigt at øge arbejdsudbuddet og væksten i produktiviteten. Uden forbedringer på disse to områder vil væksten i BNP pr. indbygger fa lde til blot ½ procent om året i løbet af et par årtier.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

2425. The Lisbon Strategy and Ethnic Minorities: Rights and Economic Growth.

Author:
Tove H. Malloy
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
The fact that member states’ approach to social inclusion is weak, whether rightsbased or growth-motivated is perhaps not surprising. Ethnic minorities are often considered second-class citizens, especially if they do not hold legal citizenship. Indeed, in some member states ethnic minorities are denied citizenship. But even in those member states where members of ethnic minorities do obtain citizenship, second-class status is often the norm. This is, of course, a reason why the rights-based approach is important. But it continues to be based on the assumption that social exclusion of ethnic minorities is but an economic burden to society, as if eliminating social exclusion would balance the books and jump-start the economy. It does not take into account that social exclusion is a drawback to economic growth because it is seen as a static phenomenon rather than an investment opportunity. EU policy makers would gain by recognizing that ethnic minorities constitute an untapped asset to society, a dynamic force that is amenable, adjustable, and willing. There is no reason to believe that members of ethnic minorities have less energy than the rest of us. To tap into this energy, the rights-based approach alone will not do. It must go hand in hand with investment policies towards economic growth. If EU policy makers were to see ethnic minorities as a vital investment component in the quest for economic growth, perhaps the recovery of the Lisbon Strategy might speed up.
Topic:
Minorities, European Union, Ethnicity, Diversity, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Europe

2426. The Aspect of Culture in Promoting Social Inclusion in the European Union: Is the Open Method of Co-ordination (OMC) Working for Ethnic Minorities?

Author:
Tove H. Malloy
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
In the context of making the European economic area competitive while reaching certain social and economic goals, the 2000 European Council at Lisbon initiated an ambitious implementation scheme on its Social Agenda introducing the Open Method of Co-ordination (OMC) as an instrument to streamline and optimize Community and Member States’ policies. The OMC method is a ‘soft governance’ approach aimed at generating real political commitment and different types of norms, procedural as well as substantive, through a highly institutionalized process of information sharing, deliberation, monitoring and learning.1 The method was first introduced in the area of employment and has been followed by an OMC on Social Inclusion (OMC/Incl.). Other focus areas are social protection/pensions and health care. The OMC on employment has recently undergone a first evaluation, and the Commission is preparing to subject the OMC/Incl. to its first evaluation.2 No OMC focuses specifically on minority inclusion but the OMC/Incl. has developed into one of the key areas of European Union (EU) policy implementation that addresses the socioeconomic exclusion of members of ethnic and Roma/Sinti minorities.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, Minorities, European Union, and Social Services
Political Geography:
Europe

2427. Europe's Uncertain Pursuit of Middle East Reform

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
DELIBERATION OF DEMOCRACY PROMOTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST intensified after the attacks of 9/11, and has been further energized by the transatlantic debates that were progeny of the Iraqi conflict. More intense debate over support for political change in the Middle East has forced the United States and Europe into a closer exploration of each other's actual and intended approaches to democracy promotion in the region. Debates have centered, in particular, on preparations for June's Group of Eight (G8) and EU–U.S. summits and the United States' proposed Greater Middle East Initiative. While many in the U.S. bemoan European irresolution, others acknowledge the need for American policy to understand and harness the EU's more pervasive presence in much of the Middle East. While Europeans express dismay at the Bush administration's heavy-handed instrumentalism, they have also been forced to engage with new U.S. initiatives that appear to heed the EU's own pleas for a focus on the root causes of instability. With the U.S. and EU eyeing each other over the parapets of their Iraqi-inspired wrangles, it is an opportune moment to delineate and critically assess how Europeans have developed their democracy promotion policies in the Middle East.
Topic:
Democratization and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Europe, and Middle East

2428. Greater Middle East Initiative Off to a False Start

Author:
Marina Ottaway and Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Bush administration is preparing to launch a “Greater Middle East Initiative” at the G-8 summit meeting in June. The plan is to bring the United States, Europe, and the Middle East together around a set of commitments to help transform the region politically and economically. The time is indeed opportune for engagement on regional reform, but as planned, the initiative fails to establish a basis for genuine partnership and does little to address the real challenges of Arab democratization. The administration should rethink its approach and start a new process of genuine consultations to come to an agreement on how all three sides can work cooperatively to address the regional problems that threaten the security of Arab societies and the West.
Topic:
Democratization and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

2429. Influencing Iran's Nuclear Activities through Major Power Cooperation

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Iran nuclear issue will be on the international agenda in the coming months. The often-postponed visit to Tehran by the head of Russia's Atomic Energy Agency (Minatom) Alexander Rumyantsev to sign an agreement on the delivery of nuclear fuel for the Bushehr power plant is now set for January. Meanwhile, early January will see the second round of negotiations between the Europeans and Iran, which is insisting it will end its voluntary suspension of uranium enrichment unless there is significant progress within the three-month timeframe set in the November 15 Paris Accords. That is no easy matter, given that in response to Iran's demands that the negotiations cover a wide range of security and economic issues, the initial European position evidently was to raise the full set of concerns which led to suspension of EU-Iran talks about a Trade Cooperation Agreement, namely, terrorism (such as al-Qaeda), Middle East peace, human rights, and all of Iran's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

2430. When Minorities Rule in the Middle East (Part II): Historical Realities

Author:
Martin Kramer
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The usual Western assumption is that "minority rule" is illegitimate and an inversion of natural order. This is, however, a very modern and European idea. Minority rule has a long tradition in the Middle East, where it has never had the same stigma that the modern West attaches to it.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

2431. Carrots for Iran? Lessons from Libya

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As European and Iranian officials began negotiations December 14 on whether to make permanent Iran's temporary suspension of uranium enrichment, eight former Western foreign ministers issued a joint statement calling on Washington to support the European efforts by engaging with Iran. There is a growing chorus claiming that Iran will keep its nuclear program suspended only if offered significant incentives by the United States, such as security guarantees, an end to hostility, or at least normal relations.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, America, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Libya, and Arab Countries

2432. The Eve of Decision: Will Europe Admit Turkey?

Author:
Soner Cagaptay, Mark Parris, and Egemen Bagis
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On October 6, 2004, the European Commission released its final report on Turkey's progress toward satisfying the EU's accession rules, known as the Copenhagen Criteria. Although the report stated that "Turkey satisfies the Copenhagen Criteria sufficiently" to enter accession talks, many European counties and the EU itself are still debating whether or not to take that step. This fact serves as proof that Turkish accession is not only a technical process -- defined for other candidate countries as satisfying the Copenhagen Criteria -- but also a political one in which other "non-Copenhagen" criteria and expectations play a role. Hence, even though Ankara has satisfied the Copenhagen Criteria, Turkey's EU membership is not yet a certainty.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

2433. U.S.-Turkish Cooperation against New Maritime Threats in the Mediterranean Basin

Author:
Orhan Babaoglu
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 23, 2004, Gen. James Jones, NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe, praised Operation Active Endeavour (OAE) for its role on the war on terror. OAE is NATO's post-September 11 answer to the question of naval security in the Mediterranean Sea. With the threat of terrorism on the open waters gaining increasing attention, especially in the aftermath of the 2000 USS Cole bombing in Yemen and the September 11 attacks, the Mediterranean basin (including the Black Sea) has become a new focal point for policymakers. The basin lies between three dangerous conflict areas -- the Middle East, the Balkans, and the Caucasus. Moreover, as a passageway between developed and underdeveloped nations, with access to three strategically important sea passages -- Gibraltar in the west, the Suez Canal in the south, and the Turkish Straits in the north -- the Mediterranean gives terrorists, human traffickers, and drug and arms smugglers easy access to the long and difficult to patrol coastlines of Europe. Is the West doing an adequate job of confronting the new threats in the Mediterranean? What role does the U.S.-Turkish alliance play in this enterprise?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Yemen, Arab Countries, and Balkans

2434. Clarifying and Strengthening the Iran-European Nuclear Accord

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 25, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors will meet to consider Iran's nuclear program, in light of the November 14 Paris Accords between Iran and Britain, France, and Germany (the E3). If the Paris Accords are going to work as a stepping-stone toward ending Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions -- rather than as a stalling tactic while Iran makes progress on that program -- several steps will be necessary to clarify and build on the Paris Accords.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Paris, France, Germany, and Arab Countries

2435. Is the European Union Ready for Turkey?

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On October 6, the European Union (EU) Commission, the executive arm of the EU, will issue its much-anticipated report on whether Turkey has satisfied the EU's accession rules, the Copenhagen Criteria. The report will serve as a recommendation to the EU Council, the top ministerial body of the union, which will meet on December 17 to decide on Turkey's EU accession prospects. Based on the commission's recommendations, the council will either open accession talks with Turkey -- paving the way toward the country's eventual EU membership -- or keep Ankara's application, which dates back to 1987, on the backburner. Is Ankara ready for the EU? And, if so, is Brussels ready for Turkey?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

2436. The IAEA and Iran: The Perils of Inaction

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Deep divisions among the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), currently meeting in Vienna, continue to hamper U.S. efforts on two key fronts: pressing Iran to suspend work on its nuclear program, and referring allegations of Iranian violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to the UN Security Council. With the current meeting unlikely to produce tangible steps to halt Iran's nuclear program, it is important to understand the potential consequences of Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability.
Topic:
Security, Cold War, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

2437. Mounting Humanitarian Catastrophe in Sudan: Implications for U.S. Policy

Author:
Michael Rubin
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Secretary of State Colin Powell will visit Sudan on Tuesday, June 29, stopping first in Khartoum before visiting the war-torn western province of Darfur. Powell will be the first U.S. secretary of state to visit Sudan since Cyrus Vance in 1978. In addition to meetings with Sudanese officials, Powell will confer with UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, who will be in Sudan as part of a three-week tour of Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Sudan, Middle East, Asia, and Arab Countries

2438. Istanbul NATO Summit: Bridging Brussels and Baghdad?

Author:
Soner Cagaptay, Simon Serfaty, and Philip Gordon
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 22, 2004, Philip Gordon, Simon Serfaty, and Soner Cagaptay addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Gordon is a senior fellow and director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. He has also served as director for European affairs on the National Security Council. Dr. Serfaty is the director of the Europe Program and the Zbigniew Brzezinski chair in global security and geostrategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also a senior professor of U.S. foreign policy at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. Dr. Cagaptay is coordinator of The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, and Middle East

2439. European Union Elections: Implications for Middle East Policy

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 22, 2004, Philip Gordon, Simon Serfaty, and Soner Cagaptay addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Gordon is a senior fellow and director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. He has also served as director for European affairs on the National Security Council. Dr. Serfaty is the director of the Europe Program and the Zbigniew Brzezinski chair in global security and geostrategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also a senior professor of U.S. foreign policy at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. Dr. Cagaptay is coordinator of The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

2440. UN Plan Fails In Cyprus: Implications For Turkey, The European Union, And The United States

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 24, Greek and Turkish citizens of Cyprus voted on UN Secretary General Kofi Annan's plan to resolve the long-standing dispute on the island. The elusive Cyprus issue once again evaded solution: although 65 percent of the Turkish Cypriots voted to accept the Annan plan, 76 percent of Greek Cypriots said no. The plan — born out of recent UN-sponsored negotiations between Turkey and Greece, as well as Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaderships — envisaged the unification of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), recognized only by Turkey, and the internationally recognized Government of Cyprus (GOC) in the ethnically Greek south into a federal state ahead of the May 1 deadline when the GOC is scheduled to enter the European Union (EU) representing the whole island. Why was the Annan plan accepted by the Turkish Cypriots, yet rejected by the Greek Cypriots? What are the implications of the new situation for Turkey, the EU, and the United States?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

2441. Terror Attacks and Elections: The Challenge for Europe

Author:
Simon Henderson and Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Three days after the terrorist bombings in Madrid, the pro-American, conservative Spanish government was defeated in general elections, to the surprise of many observers. Although officials have not yet confirmed that the al-Qaeda terrorist network was responsible for the attacks, the polling result was immediately interpreted as reflecting electorate anger at retiring Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, and the belief that his foreign policy had made Spain a target of foreign terrorists. An immediate pledge to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq by incoming Socialist leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero is a blow to the Bush administration's Iraq policy and represents, albeit unintentionally, a major political triumph for al-Qaeda.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

2442. Europe, Syria, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

Author:
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Syrian president Bashar al-Asad's January 6 interview with London's Daily Telegraph -- in which he indicated that Syria would not relinquish its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities until Israel did so also -- suggests that Syria is not likely to follow Libya's recent example of foregoing WMD in order to improve relations with the West. Still, Europe's newly aggressive approach to countering proliferation offers an opportunity for greater transatlantic coordination and the potential to reap concrete results.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

2443. Chechnya Weekly:Observers Note Tenth Anniversary Of Chechen Intervention

Author:
Andrei Smirnov and Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
December 11 marked the tenth anniversary of the Russian military intervention that began the first of the two modern Russo-Chechen wars. Russian, Western and Chechen media alike featured commentaries on the start of then President Boris Yeltsin's campaign to “restore constitutional order” in the breakaway republic and what has happened over the intervening decade.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2444. Chechnya Weekly: Turkish Demonstrators Denounce Putin

Author:
Emil Pain and Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Two thousand demonstrators marched in Istanbul, Turkey to protest President Vladimir Putin's visit to Ankara, Newsru.com reported on December 7. The demonstrators carried placards reading “Murderer Putin!” and “Get Out of Turkey!” A group of protesters from among Turkey's large community with roots in the Caucasus laid wreaths at the Russian consulate in Istanbul.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Caucasus, Asia, and Istanbul

2445. Chechnya Weekly: Alksnis Wants Soldiers' Mothers Investigated

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Viktor Alksnis, one of the Russian parliament's most strident ultra-nationalists, harshly assailed the Union of Committees of Soldiers' Mothers last week for its recent offer to help promote peace negotiations in Chechnya. Alksnis, a member of the pro-Kremlin Rodina (Motherland) party, called on the federal procuracy to investigate that human-rights movement's sources of funding. The clear implication was that the soldiers' mothers are in league with western forces deliberately seeking to destroy the Russian military.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2446. Chechnya Weekly: Appointed Governors: Disastrous For The Caucasus?

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The federal government has no visible long-term strategy for handling the crisis in the North Caucasus, one of Russia's leading specialists in the region told correspondent Dmitry Taratorin of Novye izvestia in an interview published on October 15. “The federal center's policy for the Caucasus can be stated exhaustively in the phrase 'we have power, so we don't need wisdom,'” said Sergei Arutiunov, director of the section for the study of the peoples of the Caucasus in Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2447. Chechnya Weekly: Beslan Terrorists Executed Schoolboys…

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell and Zaindi Choltaev
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Further confirmation that the Beslan terrorists killed schoolboys, not just grown men, in cold blood came in an October 4 article in Novaya gazeta by Kseniya Leonova, who interviewed 14-year-old ex-hostage Andrei Kuznetsov and his mother. Andrei is convinced that his short height saved his life; he said that the terrorists forced his taller schoolmates along with the adult male hostages to carry boxes of weapons up from the basement—”and then they shot many of them.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2448. Chechnya Weekly: Officials Statements On Beslan: A Study In Obfuscation

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
One of the most striking features of the Beslan atrocity and its aftermath has been the unwillingness of Russia's top leadership to state clearly and candidly what it knows, or even what it thinks it knows. Though officials have repeatedly made with an air of great certitude statements that later turned out to be untrue—or could be seen to be manifestly untrue even while those officials were making them—most often these statements have come from mid-echelon officials, not from the very top. Vladimir Putin's public stance has shown a combination of fanaticism and evasiveness. Hence the importance of the detailed oral report to Putin by Prosecutor General Vladimir Ustinov, broadcast in full by the state-controlled electronic media on September 8.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2449. Chechnya Weekly: Officials Statements On Beslan: A Study In Obfuscation

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
One of the most striking features of the Beslan atrocity and its aftermath has been the unwillingness of Russia's top leadership to state clearly and candidly what it knows, or even what it thinks it knows. Though officials have repeatedly made with an air of great certitude statements that later turned out to be untrue—or could be seen to be manifestly untrue even while those officials were making them—most often these statements have come from mid-echelon officials, not from the very top. Vladimir Putin's public stance has shown a combination of fanaticism and evasiveness. Hence the importance of the detailed oral report to Putin by Prosecutor General Vladimir Ustinov, broadcast in full by the state-controlled electronic media on September 8.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2450. Chechnya Weekly: Some Passports Are More Equal Than Others

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
As readers will recall from the July 28 issue of Chechnya Weekly, the strongest rival to the Kremlin's preferred candidate in this coming weekend's special election for the presidency of Chechnya's pro- Moscow administration was forced out of the race last month. The election authorities claimed that the details in Malik Saidullaev's passport were not fully accurate. In an August 5 article for Novaya gazeta entitled “Passportgate,” Orkhan Dzhemal has found some piquant details about the passport of Kremlin favorite Alu Alkhanov.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2451. Chechnya Weekly: Saidullaev Removed From Chechnya's Presidential Race

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On July 22, the election officials of Chechnya's pro-Moscow administration formally rejected the registration of Malik Saidullaev as a candidate in the republic's special presidential election scheduled for the end of August. The pro-Moscow authorities thus removed from contention the one serious competitor to Kremlin-anointed candidate Alu Alkhanov, who is now being given saturation, Putinstyle coverage by the state-controlled broadcast media.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2452. Chechnya Weekly: Abramov Narrowly Escapes Assassination…

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
A mine exploded in Grozny on July 13 just as a large, highly guarded convoy was passing which included the car of Sergei Abramov, who has of course been acting president of Chechnya's pro-Moscow administration since the assassination of Akhmad Kadyrov more than two months ago. Abramov, who was riding an armored Volga limousine, was not harmed—but one of his bodyguards in an accompanying car was killed and another wounded. Abramov's adviser Andrei Aleksintsev was also seriously wounded. An official of the republic's Interior Ministry told journalists that the mine was probably detonated by a remote control.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2453. Chechnya Weekly: Holocaust Museum Hosts Panel On Chechnya

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
This evening (Wednesday, July 14), the U.S. Holocaust Museum in Washington, D.C., is to host a panel of experts on the topic “Chechnya after a Decade of Destruction.” Featured speakers are Chechen medical doctor Khassan Baiev, author of The Oath: A Chechen Surgeon Under Fire; Rachel Denber of Human Rights Watch; and photojournalist Stanley Greene, author of Open Wound: Chechnya, 1994-2003. The panel is scheduled to begin at 7 p.m.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2454. Chechnya Weekly: Federal forces failed to block escaping ingushetia raiders.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Just how passive was the federal military during last month's rebel raid on Ingushetia? Issa Kostoev, who represents Ingushetia in the upper house of the federal parliament, provided further revelations in an interview with Sanobar Shermatova published by the weekly Moskovskie novosti on July 1. According to Kostoev, federal forces were summoned from neighboring Chechnya and Northern Ossetia, but halted at the Ingushetian border, just a few kilometers from the guerrilla attacks. “It's obvious even to someone with no military expertise,” he said, “that the guerrillas were going to have to leave [Ingushetia] in the direction of the Assa Gorge [in southern Ingushetia]; all other routes were closed to them. And that is just what they did. One group escaped to the gorge through the village of Nesterovskaya [near Ingushetia's eastern border with Chechnya], another through Surkhakhi and Ekazhevo [just southeast of Nazran]. It would seem that those were the places where they should have been blocked—but that was not done.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2455. Chechnya Weekly: Ingushetia Raids Leave Officials Blaming One Another.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On June 27, a conflict surfaced between Ingushetia's president Murat Zyazikov and his former employer, the Federal Security Service (FSB). According to a report published that same day by the Newsru.com website, the Ingushetian branch of the FSB claimed it learned in advance that a guerrilla raid was being prepared and warned Zyazikov's Interior Ministry. Zyazikov denied the claim, telling the Interfax news agency that “we did not receive any advance information about preparations for an attack by the guerrillas.” The FSB, however, stuck to its position: According to report posted on the Grani.ru website later on June 27, Sergei Koryakov, head of the FSB's branch in Ingushetia, backed his deputy Andrei Konin's earlier claim that the agency received information about the impending attack half an hour before it started. Directly contradicting Zyazikov, Koryakov continued to insist that the FSB had shared this information with Ingushetia's Interior Ministry. Zyazikov, his turn, was quoted by Izvestia on June 28 as holding fast to his own version. He hinted that those who failed to share advance information—“you know who they are”—were guilty either of “treason, or carelessness, or disorderly behavior, or irresponsibility; I think that all of the above were present in equal measure.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2456. Chechnya Weekly:Guerrillas Strike Ingushetia's Capital.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In what appeared to be a bold escalation in tactics and targeting by Chechnya's separatist guerrillas, the headquarters of Ingushetia's interior ministry in the republic's capital of Nazran was seized on the evening of June 21 by gunmen shouting an Islamic slogan popular among those guerrillas. Such a direct infantry assault on such a key central headquarters of the pro-Moscow authorities, as distinct from a suicide truck-bombing or the clandestine planting of a mine, had not taken place for a long time either in Ingushetia or in Chechnya.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

2457. Chechnya Weekly: Ingushetia: last camp closes, but many refugees remain.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On June 10 the last remaining tents of the last remaining Chechen refugee camp in Ingushetia were dismantled in a modest ceremony. According to a June 11 article by Ivan Sukhov for Vremya Novostei, the authorities decided not to make a grand spectacle of the occasion. Some 576 former residents of the “Satsita” camp returned to Chechnya, while another 90 decided to seek other living quarters within Ingushetia.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2458. Chechnya Weekly: Moscow's body count doesn't add up.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Yelena She sternina is not the first Russian journalist to do it, but she has performed a valuable service by bringing the figures up to date. The correspondent for Russky Kurier reported in that newspaper's June 3 issue on a simple exercise in arithmetic: adding up the cumulative total of rebel guerrillas which the federal forces claim to have killed in the various statements of their press spokesmen, and comparing that total with the number of guerrillas who, according to those same federal military sources, are still fighting. It turns out that if the numbers of those ostensibly killed were accurate, there would not be a single rebel fighter left.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

2459. Chechnya Weekly: Final push to drive chechen refugees out of ingushetia?

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The Russian and Ingush authorities are making what they apparently hope will be the final push in driving Chechen refugees out of their tent camps in Ingushetia. The sole remaining camp, Satsita, is due to be closed on June 10, according to the Federal Migration Service. The deputy head of that agency, Igor Yunash, told the Interfax news agency on May 27 that “there's no point in keeping the camp.” The recent upsurge of violence in Chechnya has apparently had no effect on the authorities' refugee policies.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2460. Chechnya Weekly: Ramzan kadyrov says he knows who killed his father.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In an obscure aside during an interview with the popular weekly Argumenty i Fakty, Ramzan Kadyrov said that he knows who it was who killed his father. He chose not to be more precise except to say that the mastermind of the May 9 assassination was neither Shamil Basaev (who has claimed responsibility) nor Aslan Maskhadov. “Maskhadov does not have enough strength or courage to do such a thing,” Ramzan said. “He was afraid of my father.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2461. Chechnya Weekly: Is Georgia Starting To See Chechnya Moscow's Way?

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Georgia's new government under President Mikheil Saakashvili may be tilting toward Russia on Chechnya-related issues in order to win concessions in other areas. In early May, the Paris-based International Federation for Human Rights sent an open letter to Saakashvili expressing concern over two Chechens living in Georgia, Islam Khashiev and Hussein Alkhanov, who may have been secretly handed over to Russian authorities even though a Tbilisi court had acquitted them of violating border regulations. The two have disappeared and reportedly are now in Russian hands.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Paris, Asia, and Georgia

2462. Chechnya Weekly: American peace group condemns kadyrov killing.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The American Committee for Peace in Chechnya (ACPC) has condemned the May 9 assassination of Akhmad Kadyrov, calling on May 10 for a renewed commitment by both parties to end the war through peace negotiations.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, America, Europe, and Asia

2463. Chechnya Weekly: Russian Security Agency Report-Edly Targeting Widows

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB; the renamed KGB) appears now to be using a new, stunningly self-defeating tactic to try to forestall possible terrorist attacks: kidnapping widows of Chechen men already killed by those same agencies. A handful of such widows have become suicide bombers, and the FSB is now seizing women for no reason other than that they are widows and therefore might, in theory, become terrorists in the future. According to an April 8 article by Julius Strauss of the London Daily Telegraph, the Russian human rights center Memorial has reported ten such kidnappings in January alone.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

2464. Chechnya Weekly: No Letup In Pressure On Refugees

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
According to an Interfax report on March 17, the federal, Chechen and Ingush authorities are continuing with their plans to dismantle the remaining refugee camps in Ingushetia, and human rights activists are continuing to protest that this is a tactic to force refugees to return to Chechnya against their will. Mompash Machuev, deputy head of the Kadyrov administration's committee for refugees, told the news agency that the Sputnik camp in Ingushetia--one of only two that remain in that republic--is to be closed by the end of March, and all its tents dismantled. Lyudmila Alekseeva, head of the Moscow Helsinki Group, commented “I continue to insist that the refugees are returning to Chechnya not voluntarily but because they are being forced to. Those who truly wanted to return have long since done so.”
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, Moscow, and Ingushetia

2465. Chechnya Weekly: Minister For Maskhadov Government Surrenders

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Pro-Moscow security agencies in Chechnya won a major victory on March 7 with the surrender of Magomed Khambiev, minister of defense in the underground separatist government of Aslan Maskhadov. Many, though not all, reports of this event in the Russian media have failed to mention the key tactical method by which this victory was apparently achieved: The systematic targeting, kidnapping and torture of the Khambiev family's relatives.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

2466. Chechnya Weekly: Pressure Intensifies To Close Ingush Refugee Camps

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
As of March 1, the federal and Ingush authorities had not fully succeeded in their campaign to close all the refugee camps in Ingushetia by that date. But they were getting closer. An official of the Kadyrov administration told Interfax on March 1 that the Bart refugee camp in the Ingush town of Karabulak had been officially closed. That leaves only two tent camps still operating in the Ingush republic: Satsita and Sputnik.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Ingushetia

2467. Chechnya Weekly: Newspaper Describes Deplorable Conditions Awaiting Refugess; Human Rights Report Reaches Similar Conclusions

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
What awaits the refugees now living in Ingushetia if the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeds in its stated goal of getting all of them to return to Chechnya by March? Anna Politkovskaya reported in the February 16 issue of Novayagazeta on her visit to the hamlet of Okruzhnaya on the outskirts of Grozny—which construction workers hired by the Kadyrov administration are supposedly making livable.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Ingushetia

2468. Chechnya Weekly: No Evidence Required: Chechens Blamed For Subway Bombing

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Last week's terrorist atrocity on the Moscow subway system, in addition to killing dozens of unsuspecting civilians, underlined an ugly reality of Russian politics. The Putin administration has now created, or at least thinks it has created, an emotional atmosphere such that it can blame terrorist acts on Chechens even when there is no specific evidence or claim of responsibility.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

2469. Chechnya Weekly: Questions Raised About UN Education Aid

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The Jamestown Foundation: Chechnya Weekly Table of Contents Questions Raised About UN Education Aid Pressure Intensifies to Close Refugee Camps Kadyrov Maneuvers For More Influential Role Saudi Arabia and Russia: A Budding Rapprochement? Kremlin Rights Observer is Removed From Post International Community Criticized For Chechnya Response Thoughts on Dubrovka.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Saudi Arabia

2470. Can Europe deliver growth? The Sapir Report and Beyond

Author:
Jean-Pierre Casey and Jacques Pelkmans
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The SAPIR report (Sapir et al., 2003) is important for Europe. The justification of and search for higher economic growth in the EU ought to be on the very top of the EU agenda everywhere. Offering a very rich and useful survey of many issues related to European growth, or indeed the lack of it, the report's analysis is insightful and should be compulsory reading for policy-makers and political leaders. Sapir et al.'s policy recommendations are numerous and rightly touch economic as well as institutional aspects at EU level.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

2471. The Post 9/11 Partnership: Transatlantic Cooperation Against Terrorism

Author:
David L. Aaron, Frances G. Burwell, C. Richard Nelson, Anna M. Beauchesne, K. Jack Riley, and Brian Zimmer
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
On September 11, 2001, the world was introduced to a new type of terrorism, one that was truly global in its organization and its impact. In both Europe and the United States, it was immediately clear that an effective response would require new levels of cooperation across the Atlantic and around the world. The initial response was in part military, as NATO invoked its mutual defense clause for the first time ever and a military campaign began in Afghanistan. But equally important was the decision by both the European Union and the United States to boost the capacity of their domestic law enforcement agencies and judiciary to respond to global terrorism and to look for ways to cooperate with each other in doing so. Since then, U.S.-EU cooperation in combating terrorism has been one of the success stories of transatlantic relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Europe

2472. The Transatlantic Economy in 2020: A Partnership for the Future?

Author:
Frances G. Burwell, W. Bowman Cutter, Paula Stern, and Peter S. Rashish
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The United States and the European Union maintain the world's largest and most significant economic relationship, which in turn is a foundation supporting the transatlantic political partnership. By some estimates, the transatlantic economy — including two-way trade and foreign affiliate sales — totals $2.5 trillion and is responsible for 14 million jobs in the United States and Europe. It is not just the scale of the transactions, however; the transatlantic economy is deeply interconnected through impressive levels of foreign direct investment in both directions. Together, the United States and the EU have been key players in managing the global economy through the World Trade Organization, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. They have been responsible for the major accomplishments in international trade liberalization of the last 40 years, and have spurred the adoption of global standards in a wide range of sectors.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2473. Partners in Frustration: Europe, the United States and the Broader Middle East

Author:
Geoffrey Kemp, Bruce Stokes, William Drozdiak, Flynt L. Leverett, Christopher J. Makins, and Christopher Caldwell
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Europeans and Americans view the Middle East through historical lenses of different hues. Their different experiences of the region and differing priorities and interests greatly contributed to the transatlantic rift over the war in Iraq and other issues in 2003. During 2004, however, there have been some more hopeful signs of potential transatlantic rapprochement over the broader Middle East. The prospective advantages of closer U.S.-European cooperation on the Middle East remain enormous. With a new U.S. administration due to take office in January 2005, it is timely to review the prospects for such cooperation.
Topic:
International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Middle East

2474. Turkey at the Threshold: Europe's Decision and U.S. Interests

Author:
Frances G. Burwell, William Drozdiak, Richard R. Burt, Donald K. Bandler, Eric Melby, and Morton I. Abramowitz
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In December 2004, the European Union will decide whether to begin negotiations ultimately leading to Turkey's membership. This will be a crucial decision not only for the European Union and Turkey, but also for the United States and transatlantic relations. For strategic reasons, the United States has long been a strong advocate of Turkish accession to the EU, in the belief that membership is in the long-term interests of all the parties. But if the decision in December is to be positive, the EU must first determine that Turkey has met the “Copenhagen criteria,” and the EU must also reconcile its concerns about Turkey's impact on European social integration and governance. The United States can contribute to a positive decision by pursuing an active but differentiated approach.
Topic:
International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Turkey, and Eastern Europe

2475. NATO's Role in Confronting International Terrorism

Author:
Richard A. Clarke, C. Richard Nelson, and Barry R. McCaffrey
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Leaders on both sides of the Atlantic agree that a successful global effort to confront terrorism will require a multi–faceted approach that draws on the strengths and unique assets of many international organizations. One such, the European Union (EU), has already taken a leading role in coordinating national efforts in areas closely tied to many of that organization's key functions (i.e. judicial and law–enforcement cooperation, financial controls and border security). Similarly, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has and ought to have an important role coordinating other aspects of Western national responses, notably – though not exclusively – those in which military forces are likely to play a primary or a supporting part.
Topic:
NATO, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2476. Do Economic Sanctions Work? Lessons from ILSA Other Sanctions Regimes

Author:
Stuart E. Eizenstat
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The 1990s saw a cascade of contentious sanctions legislation. Congress passed the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996, including an amendment to the Sovereign Immunities Act, which permits lawsuits against governments on the terrorism list – a major step in denying foreign governments normal immunity from suit in U.S. courts. The Iran–Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) was also passed in 1996, with the goal of discouraging third–country companies from investing in Iran or Libya. This sparked outrage from European countries, which objected to the act's “extra–territorial” reach, and from the European Union (EU) institutionally, which responded with a law barring any European company from complying with the legislation (and with similar provisions regarding Cuban trade under the controversial Helms–Burton Act).
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2477. The Defense Monitor, Challenging Conventional Threat

Author:
Rachel Stohl, Victoria Samson, Marcus Corbin, and Tomas Valasek
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
This issue of The Defense Monitor presents several of the projects currently underway at the Center for Defense Information, and describes how the work of CDI is making a difference, inside and outside of Washington, D.C. Of the many and varied CDI initiatives, highlighted here are projects on several of the hot topics of the day: the arms trade, small arms and light weapons; security cooperation with Europe; missile defense and space weapons; and, the war in Iraq, the size and shape of the military, and the role of Congress in overseeing and ensuring national security. At a time when too often public debate is cut short and poorly informed, in these and other areas CDI continues to supply the independent information. Its well-grounded analysis, and creative solutions are vital to help policy-makers make sound choices, and to support a healthy discourse on important national security issues affecting the nation and the world.
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, and Washington

2478. The Palestine Question in the Wake of the War in Iraq

Author:
Michael Irving Jensen
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
By mid-January 2003 the American Assistant Defence Minister, Paul Wolfowitz, stated that America would work intensively in order to create a Palestinian State as soon as the War in Iraq was over. In Denmark and other European countries a number of politicians issued similar statements, and peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis became an argument to justify a war against Iraq. Even people who were not convinced by the necessity of war began to argue that something positive would eventually emerge from the war – especially in the case of the Palestine Question. Their argument held that the Americans had to do something constructive in the Middle East. They needed to engage more seriously, and they had to demonstrate to the Arab world that although part of the "war against terror" might be taking place in the Arab world, it was not a war against the Arab world, or against Islam, for that matter. Thus, it was only logical to engage the US in the Middle East, and thereby do the utmost in order to force the Israeli occupation to cease. Despite the huge American problems in "post-war" Iraq the question of Palestine is still very high on the agenda not only in the Middle East, but globally.
Topic:
International Relations and War
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

2479. China Brief, A Prisoner's Dilemma: The EU's China Arms Embargo

Author:
Willy Lam, Richard A. Bitzinger, Alexandr Nemets, and Enzio Von Pfeil
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In April, the European Union (EU) dodged a bullet by refusing to take up the issue of overturning its 15-year-old ban on selling arms to China. Supporters of lifting the embargo, led by France and Germany, are unlikely to abandon their quest, however, and the issue will likely come up again for review, perhaps as early as this summer. If it lifts the ban, the EU risks further damaging a transatlantic alliance already strained over Iraq and other issues, with very little likelihood that its defense industry would see much, if any, benefit.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Israel

2480. China Brief,China's Reaction to America's Iraq Imbroglio

Author:
You Ji, Igor Rotar, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership has been at pains not to appear to be gloating over the American quagmire in Iraq. Yet in terms of geopolitical calculus, there is little doubt Beijing sees America's worsening problems in Iraq as beneficial to China's global standing, diplomatically and militarily. Capitalizing on fissures in the international community over Iraq and America's war on terror, China has strengthened ties with key members of the European Union and the United Nations in an effort to counterbalance U.S. hegemony. Meanwhile, Chinese experts' scrutiny of the exploits as well as challenges of American and Allied Forces in Iraq will have a big impact on the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) ambitious modernization drive.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, America, Europe, Israel, and Beijing

2481. Sizing and Shaping European Armed Forces Lessons and Considerations from the Nordic Countries

Author:
William Hopkinson
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
There are many threats in the current security agenda that call for collaborative international action: they include environmental degradation, organized crime, disease, natural disaster, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Sometimes collaboration is political or diplomatic, and sometimes it is economic. In other cases, security needs will require either the direct application of force or the use of organized, disciplined groups that may ultimately have to use force to protect themselves and others. Javier Solana, the European Union (EU) High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), pointed out: 'We need to develop a strategic culture that fosters early, rapid, and when necessary robust intervention. We should think particularly of operations involving both military and civilian capabilities'.
Topic:
Defense Policy and NATO
Political Geography:
Europe

2482. Economic Survey of the Czech Republic, 2004

Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Following accession to the European Union the big issue for the Czech Republic is to strengthen growth prospects. Growth potential at present is somewhat above 3 per cent, implying a moderate pace of catch-up to living standards in the EU and elsewhere. There is room for greater ambition in growth performance, and it is welcome to see this reflected in the programme of the new Czech government. This Survey underscores four main challenges. Fiscal consolidation is the dominant challenge for macroeconomic policy, and is not only necessary to cope with ageing and to bring down the tax burden but is also needed to fulfil euro-area entry conditions. A welcome programme of fiscal reform has begun, including proposals for a system of multi-year aggregate spending ceilings and significant expenditure cuts. However, to date, mainly revenue-raising measures have been implemented while the full impact of expenditure measures is yet to be realised. The attempt to secure broad political consensus on pension reform is commendable, but it must be underscored that whatever reform is finally implemented, it will have to bring considerable fiscal savings. Health-care reform also has to deliver savings, but concrete proposals have yet to be made. To facilitate assessment of the true fiscal position, extra-budgetary funds need to be more fully integrated in mainstream government budgeting procedures. Also, with the further decentralisation of public services, the need for good budgeting practices and accountability in regional and municipal governments is all the more important. The Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance have formulated a transparent strategy for entering the euro area, that foresees minimising the time spent in ERM II. Annual reports will assess the economic conditions in relation to the Maastricht Criteria and a request to enter ERM II will only being made if the probability of a positive first assessment by the EU authorities is high. The choice of a 3 per cent inflation target for the run-up to euro entry is justifiable on medium-term grounds. However there may be some difficulty communicating the consistency of this target with the Maastricht criterion for price stability. The Czech authorities should therefore pay close attention to how the Maastricht criteria are interpreted and applied by the European Commission and the ECB and adjust their communication strategy accordingly. Most of the catch-up in living standards will have to come from boosting productivity growth. This means swifter re-allocation of resources across firms as well as stronger in-firm productivity growth. While the Czech Republic is a strong competitor for attracting foreign direct investment, policy towards poorly performing firms and business start-ups has problems, slowing down the exit and entry of firms. Bankruptcy procedures are cumbersome, often long and usually end up in liquidation, with asset stripping not uncommon. Reforms have long-since been planned, and it is welcome that new legislation looks finally set to go ahead. The legislation aims at strengthening the role of creditors, speeding up proceedings and allowing composition to play a bigger role. Likewise, efforts to streamline business registration are welcome and should be implemented as soon as possible. The general business climate is also damaged by issues in network industry competition, as some services, notably internet, are expensive in international comparison. Mobility between jobs and regions is weak. Administrative extensions of collective wage agreements, strict employment protection legislation (EPL) on individual dismissals, rent control, severe poverty traps (particularly for families) and a high tax wedge have contributed to considerable long-term unemployment. The Roma population is hit especially hard in this respect. Migration is to some extent mitigating the labour-market rigidities with Slovaks filling skilled vacancies and other eastern Europeans (mainly Ukrainians) taking up unskilled jobs that are unattractive for locals. Tackling the unemployment problem requires measures across a wide front, but most notably social benefit reform is needed along with reduction in the tax wedge as well as easing of EPL. The widespread social and economic exclusion of the Roma needs more attention, particularly in the education system. A more open immigration policy is needed to address immediate issues such as the inconsistency between granting work permits as well as for better alignment of immigrants' skills with those needed on the Czech labour market.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Czech Republic

2483. Economic Survey of Finland, 2004

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The transformation of the Finnish economy over the last decade represents one of the few examples of the "new economy" taking hold in Europe. Output and productivity growth over the second half of the 1990s was among the highest in the OECD, and the recovery from the global downturn has been much stronger than for the euro area as a whole. However, imminent population ageing threatens to expose weaknesses in the labour market. Demographic developments, which over past decades have been broadly neutral, could reduce the growth rate of GDP per capita by 1/4 of a percentage point per annum over the remainder of this decade and by almost 1 percentage point over the next decade. This, combined with the likelihood of smaller productivity gains in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector, a continuation of falling ICT prices as well as the mediocre performance in the sheltered sectors, threatens the future growth of living standards. Within a decade, and in the absence of further policy changes, these developments together could imply that Finland not only loses its top performer status but could face a protracted period of slow growth, as illustrated in the following scenario.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

2484. Employment Protection: Costs and Benefits of Greater Job Security

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Deregulating labour markets – for example making it easier for firms to hire and fire employees – is at the heart of the employment debate in many OECD countries. Laws on firing or layoffs and other employment protection regulations are thought by many to be a key factor in generating labour market "rigidity", as well as one reason for the large differences in labour market performance among OECD countries, notably between the United States and some of the larger European countries.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

2485. Economic Survey of Portugal, 2004

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Convergence of the Portuguese economy toward the more advanced OECD economies seems to have halted in recent years, leaving a significant gap in per capita incomes. The proximate cause is low labour productivity, as employment rates across the board are substantially higher than the EU average. Nor is there a shortage of capital goods in aggregate. But capital equipment in the business sector is not always efficiently used or allocated, and new technologies are not readily adopted. Furthermore, the Portuguese labour force – even its younger members – have had less formal education than workers in other EU countries, including among the new entrants from Central and Eastern Europe, and workers in Portugal also have less access to training than in many other countries. Traditional Portuguese low value-added highly labourintensive products now face increasing competition from developing countries and from the new EU entrants.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

2486. Economic Survey of Germany, 2004

Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
With the effects of adverse external shocks diminishing, a strong and competitive export industry is helping the German economy out of a three-year period of near stagnation. Domestic demand has been declining over the last couple of years, as poor labour market performance has weighed on consumer sentiment and business confidence. The labour market still suffers from weak economic growth and distorted incentives, with both contributing to problems in taking up work and providing employment. Productivity growth is not high enough to compensate for the adverse effect of low labour utilization on economic growth. Fiscal targets have been missed on account of both cyclical and structural factors. The government has launched a major reform initiative to reinvigorate economic growth. These reforms are welcome, have to be continued and need to be broadened further to reduce government debt, remove fiscal distortions, and improve incentives to supply and demand labour. Furthermore, there remains considerable scope to foster the creation of new enterprises and widen product market competition, thereby also maintaining the strong innovative capacity of the economy. The major challenges are to link fiscal consolidation to public sector reform and to increase the capacity of the economy to create employment and increase productivity growth. To create confidence and to restore Germany's traditional economic strength it is necessary that reforms reflect a coherent vision about the reorientation of economic policy – combining a growth and stability oriented macroeconomic policy with structural reforms – and are implemented according to a transparent and predictable roadmap.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

2487. Economic Survey of Poland, 2004

Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Poland has made impressive progress in the transformation of its economy and the accession to the European Union on 1st May 2004 marks another historical event. It follows 15 years of profound change and accomplishment. More than 75 per cent of GDP is now produced in the private sector, the economy is well integrated with those of western European nations and inflation has been brought down to low levels. After an initial fall, output has been growing continuously for more than 10 years and, on average, Poles are much better off now than they were then. However, the striking drop in employment since 1998 is suggestive of serious remaining problems. To address these, much more needs to be done, notably in terms of raising productivity, expanding employment and increasing per capita income, which is 41 per cent of OECD levels.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

2488. Economic Survey of the Netherlands, 2004

Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The economic downturn in the Netherlands, like the boom that preceded it, has been more marked than in most other European countries. This is partly attributable to greater exposure to international trade, especially with the US, and to greater sensitivity to international stock price movements. But there are also some structural policies – pension fund regulation, housing and wage setting institutions – that have undermined economic efficiency and contributed to the amplitude of the cycle. Furthermore there has been a marked deterioration in public finances, part of which is structural. Longer term growth trends too are unfavourable. In view of these developments, the main challenges are to reform those policies that have reduced efficiency and increased volatility, put public finances on a sustainable path, and, most importantly, increase trend growth by increasing both employment and productivity.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Environment, Human Rights, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

2489. Violence in Kosovo and the Way Ahead

Author:
Harald Schenker
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
The events of 17-19 March 2004 have shocked both the international community and local institutions: protests against the alleged killing of three ethnic Albanian children escalated into violent clashes between ethnic Albanians and Serbs, and clashes with the international peacekeeping forces in Kosovo, UN Police and the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR). The past four years seemed to be characterised by relatively positive developments in Kosovo. However, the recent troubles that left over 28 civilians and 1 KFOR soldier dead and hundreds wounded, 3,600 Serbs displaced, 30 Serbian churches and 200 Serbian houses destroyed, show that current policies on the international and local sides will have to be examined and revised and that, generally, much remains to be done in Kosovo for sustainable peace and genuine development. The fact that Kosovo Albanian leaders were as surprised by the events as the international community seems to indicate that the origins of the event are to be found below the political level and beyond the control of the political parties. In spite of their public appeals to stop the violence, the leadership failed to fully acknowledge responsibility and to deal with events appropriately, without relating the violence to issues of independence and transfer of competences. The events also indicate that the optimistic analysis of Kosovo’s current situation needs revisiting. Consequently, security policy and relations between the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and Kosovo’s Provisional Institutions of SelfGovernment (PISG) have to be reconsidered. It is too early to tell what exactly will be the consequences of events on UNMIK and PISG policies and activities, especially regarding the standards implementation plan and, more generally, the future of the province. A careful review of the political and security situation and of the roles of the parties involved should be encouraged.
Topic:
Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, Violence, and Diversity
Political Geography:
Europe and Kosovo

2490. Cyprus after the Failure of the Annan-Plan

Author:
Jan Asmussen
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
On 24 April 2004 Greek and Turkish Cypriots decided in separate simultaneous referenda on whether or not Cyprus would join the European Union on 1 May 2004. While 64.91% of Turkish Cypriots accepted the Annan Plan, an overwhelming majority of 75.83% of Greek Cypriots rejected the UN blueprint. The extent of the Greek Cypriot “Oxi”(No) brought an end to a large scale effort by the United Nations Secretary-General to broker a final deal for a solution of the “oldest item continuously on the peacemaking agenda”.1 Apart from the UN, the United States (Special envoy: Thomas Weston), the United Kingdom (Special envoy: (Sir David Hannay) and the European Union have constantly observed and tried to facilitate the process. Consequently, there has been a great deal of disappointment among those engaged in finding a solution. The most outspoken comment came from EU Enlargement Commissioner, Günter Verheugen who on 21 April declared that he felt “cheated” by the Greek Cypriot Government. Kofi Annan’s latest report clearly puts most of the blame for the failure on the Greek Cypriot leader, Tassos Papadopoulos, and his government and stresses that “if the Greek Cypriots are ready to share power and prosperity with the Turkish Cypriots in a federal structure based on political equality, this needs to be demonstrated, not just in word, but in action.”3 Apparently, the international community never took the possibility of such an outcome into consideration. As a result, both the EU and the UN concentrated on pressuring the Turkish Cypriot side and Turkey to accept the UN Plan. At the same time no efforts were made to secure a more positive attitude by the Greek Cypriot leadership. Today the international community is in a stage of shock and has clearly not developed an alternative plan to cope with the new situation.
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Minorities, European Union, Leadership, Ethnicity, Diversity, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus

2491. A New Challenge for Kosovo’s Emerging Democracy. November 2004.

Author:
Adrian Zeqiri
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
On 23 October 2004, elections for the central institutions of Kosovo were held for the second time. According to CoE and OSCE observers, the elections were held in a free and fair environment and there were no irregularities in the process. Shortly after the publication of the election results, LDK (the largest party) and AAK, (a party stemming from former KLA structures) announced their decision to form a coalition government. This decision points to a number of new factors that may shape future political developments in Kosovo, set against a backdrop of urgent Standards implementation and future status negotiations. The NATO-led intervention in 1999 established the territory as a UN protectorate, under charge of the international community in all major spheres of life. Since then Kosovo has seen a gradual empowerment of local institutions over a period of four elections, both municipal and central. The 2004 central elections were organized largely by local institutions, reflecting the ability of Kosovo actors to successfully adopt responsibility for the running of the territory. Unlike the previous broad-based coalition government emerging from the 2001 elections, the recent agreement between LDK and AAK sees parties taking up positions of power and opposition within the new assembly. This constellation presents a new challenge for the fragile political environment of Kosovo. The international community may now be faced with a more confrontational political landscape and the more politicized Albanian politicians will be tested to function within this new arrangement. This report serves to analyse the election results and their implications for the formation of a Kosovo assembly. It will further discuss the impact of these developments in the current and upcoming intensive political period in Kosovo.
Topic:
Development, Minorities, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe and Kosovo

2492. Financial Conglomerates: The Future of Finance?

Author:
Robert Litan and Richard Herring
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In 1999, after nearly twenty years of debate, the U.S. Congress finally passed legislation permitting bank affiliations with all sorts of other financial enterprises, and vice versa. In this step, the United States joined many other countries — especially in Europe and, more recently, Japan — in allowing the operation of financial conglomerates. But are financial conglomerates the wave of the future in finance? And if so, how are they to be regulated? These were the two central questions addressed in the fifth annual conference of the Brookings-Wharton Papers on Financial Services, an annual volume published by the Brookings Institution Press. The conference, held in October 2002 in Washington, D.C., convened financial services experts from around the world. The papers presented at the conference suggest, generally, that while the future may see more financial conglomerate activity than it has in the past, there still will be a role for specialist, or "monoline" financial companies. As for regulation, there is no settled model: some nations will pursue consolidated supervision, with authority over entire conglomerates vested in a single authority (often the central bank), while others will still regulate the pieces of diversified financial enterprises along structural lines.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Washington

2493. The Hinge to Europe: Don't Make Britain Choose Between the U.S. and the E.U.

Author:
Anatol Lieven
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The vital U.S. relationship with Britain is much more fragile than many Americans think. Thanks to the Bush administration policy on a range of issues, hostility to the United States among the British public is higher than it has been since the Vietnam War. Only the personal commitment and moral courage of Tony Blair made British participation in the Iraq War possible—and the result has been seriously to endanger his leadership at home. Above all, Americans must understand that the strategy of this British government, and of the British foreign policy establishment in general, is to avoid having to make a definitive choice between Britain's alliance with the United States and its place in the European Union. If Washington forces Britain to choose between the two, it may not choose the United States, and a collapse of the relationship with Britain would leave the United States without a single major Western ally. The consequences for U.S. power and influence in the world would be nothing short of disastrous.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, United Kingdom, America, Europe, and Vietnam

2494. European Union Reforms Diminish the Role of the Turkish Military: Ankara Knocking on Brussels' Door

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On August 8, 2003, the seventh European Union (EU) reform package went into effect in Turkey, significantly curbing the role of the military in politics. This legislation, passed by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government on August 4, follows six previous packages adopted since February 2002. Collectively, these reform measures have vastly liberalized the country's political system, facilitating Kurdish broadcasting and education, abolishing the death penalty, and subjecting Turkish courts to the European Court of Human Rights. Turkey now has laws guaranteeing freedom of speech, and the military is no longer the kingmaker in Ankara. As a result, AKP -- a self-styled "conservative democratic" party with an identifiable "Islamist pedigree" -- anticipates that Turkey will pass muster when Brussels reviews its candidacy for EU membership in June 2004. Ankara hopes that the EU will establish an accession calendar, opening the way for Turkey's eventual entry into the union, perhaps within the next decade. These developments are crucial to Turkey's future. Which path will the country take now that the military is stripped of its role as a decisionmaking body? Will the EU open its doors to Turkey?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

2495. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq and Iran -- Crosswinds?

Author:
William A. Samii and Nasser Hadian
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 21, 2003, A. William Samii and Nasser Hadian addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Samii is an analyst at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, where he prepares the Iran Report. Dr. Hadian is a professor of political science at Tehran University and a visiting scholar at the Middle East Institute of Columbia University. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Washington, Middle East, Colombia, and Arabia

2496. Bush and Blair: Tensions in the Relationship

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, speaking at the annual policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell, after mentioning the war in Iraq, declared, "no challenge, no opportunity, is more important, more pressing, than the quest to put an end to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians." Such wording is similar to sentiments expressed in recent weeks by British prime minister Tony Blair. However, there are indications that Washington's view about Israeli-Palestinian issues sharply differs from that of London.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Europe, Middle East, Israel, London, Palestine, and Arabia

2497. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq Crisis After the Blix Report -- Diplomatic and Military Options

Author:
Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, David Kay, and Philip Gordon
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 27, Hans Blix, director of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), delivered a straightforward report to the Security Council regarding Iraqi compliance with arms resolutions. Twelve years after taking up the obligation to disarm under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 687, Baghdad still does not genuinely believe that it needs to disarm. Hence, asserting that inspections will work if given time is rather naive. Many in Europe have made this very argument, claiming that the Blix report is just the beginning of a long-term process. Yet, the mission of the inspectors under UNSCR 1441 (passed in November 2002) is to confirm that Iraq has made the decision to disarm and to verify that disarmament has in fact taken place; the Blix report shows that neither of these criteria has been met.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

2498. Criminal Enterprise in the Political Economy of Middle Eastern Terrorism

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
At least five terrorist suspects who entered the United States illegally from Canada during the Christmas holidays are now the subjects of an international manhunt. The suspects' international travel was apparently facilitated by Pakistani criminal elements engaged in the production of false documents, including forged visas and passports. The nexus between criminal and terrorist activity is not new. Indeed, international terrorism is facilitated and financed by an array of states, groups, fronts, individuals, businesses, banks, criminal enterprises, and nominally humanitarian organizations. Since the attacks of September 11, experts and decisionmakers have focused much attention on charitable and humanitarian organizations, as well as official and unofficial banking systems in the network of terrorist financing. The political economy of terrorism, however, relies just as heavily on legitimate businesses and, increasingly, criminal activity.
Topic:
Security, Political Economy, and Religion
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Taliban, Arab Countries, Syria, and North America

2499. Terror from Damascus, Part II: Hizballah and al-Qaeda Terrorist Activity in Syria

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Secretary of State Colin Powell's recent talks in Damascus focused not only on Syrian sponsorship of Palestinian terrorist groups, but also on Syria's increasingly intimate ties with and support for Hizballah. Yet, Syrian support for terrorist groups of global reach does not end with Hizballah. Recently revealed intelligence on al-Qaeda activities in Europe exposed a significant al-Qaeda network in Syria.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

2500. Inside a Flawed 'Roadmap': Truth or Consequences for the Peace Process

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As one clock ticks toward a decision on the use of force to disarm Iraq, a second clock clicks toward the formal launching of the "roadmap" for Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking drafted by the Quartet (i.e., the United States, the European Union, Russia, and the United Nations). Barring some major external development — such as the death or exile of Yasir Arafat, a cataclysmic act of Palestinian terrorism, or an unexpected Israeli-Palestinian initiative — the roadmap process is likely to begin, as President George W. Bush might say, in a matter of weeks, not months.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries