Political Geography: Europe / Content Type: Policy Brief

2101. Chechnya Weekly: Chechen Rebels Step Up Attacks

Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: A battle between rebels and security forces took place in Chechnya's Urus-Martan district on May 6. Kavkazky Uzel on May 7 quoted a Chechen Interior Ministry source as saying of the incident: “Yesterday at around 1400 in a forest tract at the village of Komsomolskoe in Urus-Martan district servicemen from a Defense Ministry unit who were carrying out intelligence-reconnaissance activities discovered a gang-formation unit numbering up to 15 people that was concealed at a temporary base. After a short shootout, the bandits retreated and left, presumably in the direction of the mountains (the village of Komsomolskoe is located in the foothills). There were no causalities or wounded among the servicemen. An operation to find and neutralize that gang group is continuing at the moment.” According to Kavkazky Uzel, Chechen rebel websites claimed that the battle lasted more than one and a half hours but did not report on whether any rebel fighters were killed or wounded.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2102. Chechnya Weekly: Zyazikov Reportedly Beaten Up by Opposition Businessman

Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The opposition Ingushetiya.ru website reported on April 30 that around two weeks earlier, Musa Keligov, the former deputy presidential envoy to the Southern Federal District and well-known businessman who some call the “purse” of the opposition to Murat Zyazikov, Ingushetia's president (Chechnya Weekly, March 20), by chance ran into Zyazikov in a Moscow hotel. According to Ingushetiya.ru, the chance encounter ended with Zyazikov's bodyguards finding him “unconscious and with a smashed face.” The website reported that Keligov asked Zyazikov bodyguards to tell Zyazikov once he regained consciousness that he had been dealt with “according to Ingush laws” and that judgment according to Russian laws lay ahead.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2103. Chechnya Weekly: Kadyrov Keeps the Heat on the Yamadaevs

Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In what appears to be an ongoing campaign by Chechnya's pro-Moscow administration against the Vostok Battalion of the GRU (Russian military intelligence), investigators with the republic's law-enforcement bodies are looking into the battalion's possible involvement in the murder of the Arsamakov brothers (Chechnya Weekly, April 17 and 24; May 1). Kavkazky Uzel on May 8 quoted a Chechen law-enforcement source as saying that investigators who are looking into the Vostok Battalion's activities have information about the possible involvement of battalion members in the kidnapping and subsequent brutal murder of Yusup and Yunus Arsamakov and their driver, who disappeared in early February of 2007.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

2104. Chechnya Weekly: Russian Commander: Chechen Rebels Supported by Local Population

Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The commander of the Combined Group of Forces in the North Caucasus, Major General Nikolai Sivak, said in an interview published in the newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda on May 20 that 17 servicemen have been killed in the region so far this year, which is an increase over the same period last year, Interfax reported. “Unfortunately, we were unable to reduce the losses compared to last year,” he told the military newspaper. “Since the beginning of this year up to 27 April, 17 people have died; last year [2007] 15 people died during the same period.” Sivak said that 32 militants had been killed since the start of 2008. "Last year the figure was about the same," he said.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2105. Russia's Security Policy Grows "Muscular": Should the West Be Worried?

Author:: Pavel K. Baev
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The self-assertive rhetoric of the Russian leadership, in which President Putin's Munich speech marked a shift towards a more aggressive style, has been translated into such demonstrative actions as the resumption of regular patrols by Long Range Aviation and the unilateral suspension of the CFE Treaty. Despite new funding and against confident self-assessments, Russia's strategic arsenal continues to shrink, and many key modernization projects, such as the Bulava missile for strategic submarines, have encountered setbacks. The need for brandishing the diminishing capabilities is driven by the desire to deter the perceived threat of a 'coloured revolution' sponsored by the West, the urge to assert a more solid status than just that of an 'energy super-power', and the complicated intrigues surrounding the on-going reconfiguration of the political leadership. Expanding demonstrations of the dilapidated strategic arsenal increase the risks of technical failures but fall far short of initiating a new confrontation of the Cold War type. The most worrisome point in Russia's ambivalent power policy is Georgia, which has been the target of choice for multiple propaganda attacks, but which now faces the challenge of an external intervention in its domestic crises since Moscow has built up usable military instruments in the North Caucasus. Russia's desire to secure higher international status does not amount to malicious revisionism; so over-reaction to its experiments with muscle-flexing could constitute a greater risk to the Western strategy of engagement than underestimating its ambitions.
Topic:: International Relations and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2106. The transport infrastructure in Russia - From modernization to development: fact and fiction

Author:: Katri Pynnöniemi
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: During recent years, transport and infrastructure development has acquired the status of a 'topic to be mentioned by the president' and other high-level state officials in their public appearances. The rise of transport from almost complete oblivion into the sphere of state strategic interests has been rapid, and it is a subject which is likely to maintain a high profile in the years to come. Success in implementing the current plans for infrastructure development is considered critical in order to generate further economic growth. From the longer-term perspective, it will also be critical in ensuring the diversification of the economy and securing Russia's place amongst the most advanced economies in the world. The modernization of the transport infrastructure is also seen as a lever with which Russia can reposition herself as a power-house in Eurasia. In actual fact, Russia is not a bridge but the dead-end of Eurasia. The country is faced with the enormous task of modernizing its transport infrastructures and implementing structural reforms that have been postponed for years. This would pose a tremendous challenge even in the best possible external circumstances, never mind against the backdrop of inflation and uncertainty in the world markets which exists at present. Something which has changed is that Russia now has the resources and the appropriate legislation in place to carry out these tasks. Yet, even if considerable effort has gone into defining strategic priorities, infrastructure investments are still implemented in an ad-hoc manner. The country is in dire need of massive construction projects. If the quality of the state apparatus in managing government spending does not improve – and there are few signs of that materializing – infrastructure development will become the Trojan horse of the Russian economy.
Topic:: Development, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2107. Russia in 2008 and beyond: What kind of foreign policy?

Author:: Vadim Kononenko
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Russia's current foreign policy should be understood as an element of the political regime that was built under Vladimir Putin's leadership. The major domestic impact on foreign policy seems to stem from the inclination among the elites and the power groups to maintain the power status quo in the country whilst profiting from the economic ties with the West. In this context the West becomes perceived as an unwanted external political factor on the one hand, and as a source of profits and financial stability for the Russian elites on the other. The current political system has given rise to a specific kind of foreign policy and diplomacy that both actively criticizes and challenges the West in rhetoric, while furthering economic ties between Europe and Russia's major business players. This contradiction is not self-evident as it is often couched in the assertive discourse of “strong state” and “national interest”. In reality, it is the “special interests” of Russia's state-private power groups and networks that lie behind the country's international standing. As long as the internal order in the country remains as it is, it is not feasible to expect any critical rethinking on foreign policy. The scope for public and expert debate has shrunk tremendously as foreign policy-making becomes increasingly bureaucratic and profit-driven. The prevailing climate of tense relations and diplomatic bickering in Russia-Western relations may linger despite the change of president. This does not mean that stabilization of relations or even engagement with Russia should be ruled out, however. Western actors should pay close attention to the domestic development in Russia, particularly the economic side. Further growth in the economy will push Russia towards a more intense (both in terms of cooperation and competition) interaction with the West. It is in the interests of the West to respond to this development in a consistent and constructive way by anchoring Russia in the rule-based economic environment.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2108. Opening the European Commission's Delegation in Minsk: Do EU-Belarus relations need a rethink?

Author:: Alena Vysotskaya and Guedes Vieira
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: In the first months of 2008, the Belarusian leadership made some unprecedented declarations, demonstrating its willingness to cooperate with the EU. In contrast to similar declarations in the past, the current statements were supported by tangible cooperation-oriented steps on the part of the official Minsk, including the decision on the opening of the Delegation of the European Commission in the country and the release of several political prisoners. The recent attempts of the Belarusian leadership to establish its own terms for the fulfilment of EU demands on the one hand and the establishment of the Commission's Delegation in Minsk on the other, invite further consideration of EU-Belarus relations. Nevertheless, the existence of concessions as far as the official Minsk is concerned should not be mistaken for a fundamental change in the Belarusian approach towards the EU. As before, the official Minsk is not simply promoting cooperation with the EU, but cooperation of a very special type, namely one whereby it defines its own conditions, rather than adopting those defined by the EU, thus developing something of a reverse conditionality. The EU should clarify whether it can reward the Belarusian leadership for single cooperation-oriented steps, and to what extent such rewards can be granted. In other words, the EU needs an inventory of the instruments that are, or can be, employed in its policy towards Belarus. As far as the character of different instruments is concerned, the EU approach might appear contradictory, but this strategy is paradoxically the only way to move forward in its relations with Belarus. If the EU wants to promote the democratisation of Belarus, it should try to find synergies among its own measures and the policies of other actors. As the recent changes have demonstrated, only a combination of pressures from different sides will create a sufficient basis for EU leverage in Belarus.
Topic:: Democratization, Diplomacy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

2109. False Premises, Sound Principles: The Way Forward in EU-Russia Relations

Author:: Hiski Haukkala
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The post-Cold War EU–Russia relationship has been based on erroneous premises: Russia has not been willing to live up to its original aims of pursuing a western democratic and liberal path; nor have the European Union and its member states been able to develop a coherent policy line that would have consistently nudged Russia in that direction. The lack of a genuinely shared understanding concerning the relationship has resulted in chronic and growing political problems and crises between the parties. The increasingly fraught nature of the EU–Russia relationship has also played to Russia's strengths. It has enabled Russia to re-assert its sovereignty and walk away from the commonly agreed principles and objectives already codified in the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement of 1994. The erosion of the original central aims of the partnership has not resulted in an atmosphere of working relations. Although Russia has been able to get its own way in most of the issues, a relationship worthy of the name “strategic partnership” is currently more elusive than ever. Instead of toning down its relations with Russia, the EU should seek to re-invigorate its approach to the country. It should also acknowledge that despite the current problems the EU's policy on Russia has, by and large, been based on sound principles. Democracy, the rule of law, good governance, respect for human and minority rights, and liberal market principles are all factors that are badly needed in order to ensure a stable and prosperous future for Russia. The EU should, through its own actions, also make it clear to Russia that it deserves respect and needs to be taken seriously. It would be prudent to proceed from the sector that seems to be the key to the current relationship: energy. By pursuing a unified internal energy market and subsequent common external energy policy, the EU might be able to make Russia take the Union level more seriously again. It would also deprive some of the main culprits – Russia and certain key member states alike – of the chance of exploiting the economic and political deals cut at the bilateral level to the detriment of the common EU approach to Russia.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2110. Chechnya Weekly: Attacks Reported in Ingushetia, Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria

Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Unidentified gunmen fired on a car in which soldiers were traveling in the village of Verkhnie Achaluki in Ingushetia's Malgobeksky district on May 29, killing two servicemen on the spot and wounding two others. One of the wounded servicemen later died in the hospital, bringing the total number of servicemen killed in the attack to three. The press service of the Investigative Committee for Ingushetia told Interfax that the servicemen were traveling through Ingushetia on the way to their base in Mozdok, North Ossetia, at the time of the attack. Russian Interior Ministry troops were involved in a shootout with militants in Ingushetia's Sunzhensky district on May 24. A local police source told RIA Novosti that no troops were injured in the clash and that there was no information about fatalities among the “illegal armed group” members involved in the clash. “Troops clashed with a group of nine gunmen, about one kilometer from the town of Gandalbos, and then about three kilometers from the town another clash occurred with another group of militants numbering about 30,” the source told the news agency. The source said that the militants were fired on with artillery as they retreated. A spokesman for the Ingush Interior Ministry said that the ministry had no information confirming that those armed encounters had taken place. The same spokesman said, however, that two Interior Ministry troops were wounded on May 23 when an unidentified explosive device went off in the Sunzhensky district. “They were both hospitalized and the doctors say their lives are not in danger,” the spokesman said.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2111. North Caucasus Weekly: Chechen Rebels Carry Out a Series of Attacks

Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Chechen rebels burned a Russian armored vehicle in the town of Bamut on June 16, the Associated Press reported on June 17. The news agency quoted the Chechen Interior Ministry as saying that a group of rebel fighters fired rocket-propelled grenades at the armored vehicle and that its crew managed to get out unhurt, but that a resident was wounded in the crossfire. RIA Novosti on June 17 quoted a Chechen law-enforcement officer as saying that three unidentified assailants had fired grenade launchers and automatic rifles at two Russian military vehicles in Bamut and that one vehicle had been burned out and a local resident injured in the attack.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2112. Chechnya Weekly: Ingushetia's Opposition Set to Hold “Decisive” Protest

Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Ingushetia's opposition is set to hold what Newsru.com described as a “final and decisive” republic-wide protest in Nazran and other cities on May 6. The website reported on May 5 that the main demands of the protest are the freeing of political prisoners, the resignation of Murat Zyazikov as Ingushetia's president and the return of Ruslan Aushev to that post. The opposition has already gathered more than 50,000 signatures on a petition calling for Aushev's return as president.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

2113. Chechnya Weekly: Five Rebels Killed in Ingushetia; Opposition Postpones Protest

Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Security forces in Ingushetia killed five militants during a special operation conducted in the city of Karabulak on June 11. Itar-Tass quoted law-enforcement sources in Ingushetia as saying the militants, who were holed up in a house, were blockaded by security forces, who called on them to surrender. Instead, the militants opened fire, and a battle ensued in which the five rebels were killed. According to the sources, the house in which they were holed up caught fire during the shootout. Itar-Tass quoted a military source as saying that one of the militants was killed when he tried to escape, after which the rest were killed in the battle. The news agency also reported that a woman was among the five dead militants. According to the opposition Ingushetiya.ru website, the woman killed in the battle owned the house where the militants were staying and her son was among those killed. Life.ru on June 11 quoted a law-enforcement source as identifying the slain woman and her son as having the surname Abalakov and saying that they had recently arrived in Karabulak.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2114. Is a League of Democracies a Good Idea?

Author:: Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Although the idea of a “League of Democracies” usefully reflects the urgent need to rebuild the legitimacy of U.S. democracy promotion, it is a problematic idea. It rests on the false assumption that democracies share sufficient common interests to work effectively together in a large group on a wide range of global issues. Such a league could aggravate rather than alleviate global sensitivities about the close association between U.S. democracy promotion and the U.S. global security agenda. The next U.S. president should opt instead for more flexible, case-by-case partnerships to fit specific issues and contexts.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

2115. North Caucasus Weekly: Human Rights Watch Denounces Abuses in Ingushetia

Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On June 25, Human Rights Watch released a report stating that the situation in Ingushetia is starting to resemble that of Chechnya several years ago in terms of human rights abuses. The New York-based group stated in a summary of the report that the Chechen conflict “overflowed” into Ingushetia, bringing with it “grave conflict dynamics.” “For the past four years Russia has been fighting several militant groups in Ingushetia, which have a loose agenda to unseat the Ingush government, evict federal security and military forces based in the region, and promote Islamic rule in the North Caucasus,” the report's summary stated. “Beginning in summer 2007, insurgents' attacks on public officials, law enforcement and security personnel, and civilians rose sharply. Human Rights Watch condemns attacks on civilians and recognizes that the Russian government has a duty to pursue the perpetrators, prevent attacks, and bring those responsible to account. Attacks on civilians, public officials, and police and security forces are serious crimes. Russia, like any government, has a legitimate interest in investigating and prosecuting such crimes and an obligation to do so while respecting Russian and international human rights law. Regrettably, Russia is failing to respect or to adhere to these laws. Law enforcement and security forces involved in counterinsurgency have committed dozens of extrajudicial executions, summary and arbitrary detentions, and acts of torture and cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment.”
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2116. Is the Euro Ready for 'Prime Time'?

Author:: Benjamin J Cohen and Paola Subacchi
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: When Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) became effective nearly a decade ago, the euro was seen as having the potential to be the second pillar of the international monetary system. It was expected to share leadership in monetary affairs with the United States. Ten years later, however, the story looks quite different. Although the euro has firmly established itself as an international currency, the degree of change has been considerably less than expected. Europe's joint money remains at a distinct disadvantage in relation to America's greenback, limiting the role it can play in global monetary governance. The euro is not yet ready for 'prime time' and can at best play only a subordinate role to the dollar in the global system. This can be described as a one-and-a-half currency system – certainly not a two-pillar world. The problem lies in the governance structure of EMU. Because the euro is a currency without a country, based on an inter-state agreement, participating members find it difficult to speak with a single voice. The solution lies in a reform of EMU's governing rules and institutions that would put greater emphasis on the euro's external dimension. On the one hand this calls for more proactive management of the currency's exchange rate by the European Central Bank (ECB), together with an explicit commitment by the Eurogroup –the euro zone's informal committee of finance ministers – to undertake effective coordination of national fiscal policies. On the other hand it means designating a single representative of EMU with real authority to speak on behalf of members in international councils. Unless the euro zone can learn how to project power more successfully than it has until now, dual leadership of monetary affairs at the global level will remain out of reach.
Topic:: Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

2117. EU Trade Policy: Approaching a Crossroads

Author:: Roderick Abbott
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: In an important shift, inspired partly by drift in the Doha Round negotiations, the EU announced in 2006 that it would seek new free trade area arrangements with fast-growing economies, particularly in Asia. The plan, which ended a moratorium on the launch of bilateral trade talks, in place since 1996, was billed explicitly as a contribution to the EU's own growth and jobs strategy as well as a market-opening exercise. However, the policy has so far been no more effective than multilateral negotiations in producing concrete results. Negotiations with South Korea and ASEAN have made only slow progress, while the state of talks with India remains unclear. The EU spent most of 2007 renegotiating long-standing agreements with African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries in an effort to satisfy WTO rules. Meanwhile, the EU's partnership agreements with China and Russia have expired, and appropriate successor arrangements are still being sought. In both cases, a number of important bilateral problems and strains will need to be dealt with. With its various trade negotiations treading water, the EU may need to review its options. One could be a more aggressive pursuit of market access, modelled on the US approach. Alternatively, the EU's traditional preference for multilateral engagement may reassert itself.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Caribbean

2118. Thinking About the Future of Food: The Chatham House Food Supply Scenarios

Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Demand for food is increasing because the global population is rising and major developing economies are expanding. Global supply capacity, meanwhile, is struggling to keep up with changing requirements. Four global food supply scenarios have been developed by the Chatham House Food Supply Project to consider the challenges created and their impact on the EU/UK: 'Just a Blip': what if the present high price of food proves to be a brief spike with a return to cheap food at some point soon? 'Food Inflation': what if food prices remain high for a decade or more? 'Into a New Era': what if today's food system has reached its limits and must change? 'Food in Crisis': what if a major world food crisis develops? Across the world the responses to change will be conditioned by uncertainties surrounding the availability of sufficient energy, water, land and skills. EU/UK stakeholders need to start planning now to develop new food supply systems that are up to the task.
Topic:: Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Population
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

2119. An EU-Korea Free Trade Area: Playing Catch-Up or Taking the Lead?

Author:: Jim Rollo
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Both Korea and the EU are pursuing free trade areas (FTAs) aggressively as part of their trade policy strategies. Korea is much further down the road. There are strong incentives on both sides to conclude an agreement. However, specific issues and EU's desire to do at least as well as, and preferably better than, the Korea–US FTA may delay or even preclude success. Korea and the EU are not principal suppliers to each other, so while an agreement is predicted to be economically favourable to both sides, the effects are not expected to be very large. Korea has the higher barriers and is expected to make the bigger economic gains. There are sensitive sectors on both sides, notably automobiles for the EU and services and processed foods for Korea. Both sides have important agricultural constituencies to protect. Korea's key role in the East Asian production system suggests that rules of origin could be an area of particular difficulty in the negotiation.
Topic:: Agriculture and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, East Asia, Asia, and South Korea

2120. Prospects for an EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Free Trade Area: The World's First Region-to-Region FTA?

Author:: Jim Rollo
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: The EU and the GCC have seemed close to an agreement on a region-to-region Free Trade Agreement (FTA) – possibly the first in the world between customs unions – for the last two years. The EU seems keener on an agreement than the GCC. An FTA is an element in the EU's Global Europe trade policy strategy and is explicitly linked to energy security concerns. The EU is the GCC's main supplier of goods and services, and since the completion of the GCC Customs Union tariffs are low and the economic effects of an FTA are likely to be small, on goods at least. There may be economic barriers to the final signing of an FTA on both sides: resistance by GCC states to services and investment liberalization; and resistance in the EU over access for GCC refinery products and chemicals. Commentary from the Gulf itself suggests that the EU practice of including clauses on human rights and labour market and environmental regulation may be at the heart of the slow progress from the GCC side.
Topic:: Environment, Human Rights, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

2121. Stress-Testing the Regulators: Market Risks and the EU Economy

Author:: Max Watson
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Today's market turbulence and global imbalances prompt the question whether economic and regulatory policies are poorly designed or just badly implemented. The question is urgent for Europe, which has its own asset booms and imbalances to worry about as well as the backwash of US problems. The imbalances in Europe's economies in large part reflect favourable shocks, such as falling interest rates and growing financial integration. But the 'growth crisis' in Portugal underscores the fact that there can be hard landings, even without a financial crisis, if fiscal policy is unwise and if productivity fails to take off. The current global imbalances and turbulence also have a common backdrop in the long period of unusually easy liquidity and low risk premia during which today's problems built up. This suggests that central banks should be prepared more often to 'lean against the wind' in times of asset price exuberance, and that politicians should not cut taxes or boost spending permanently on the back of revenue gains that result from transient financial booms. Banks and supervisors have many lessons to draw. Some involve going 'back to basics' on issues such as liquidity, off-balance-sheet operations, and the ability to close and reopen banks. Others require a careful look at incentives – in executive pay, rating agency roles and loan production systems. Supervisors also need to take better account of boom-bust cycles when they assess risks, and address cross-border issues in EU banking. Moral hazard has been partly addressed by pain inflicted on bank managements and shareholders. But at the macro level it may be building up as policy-makers act to limit losses in a setting where they cannot trace the ultimate fallout from risks. In future, their discretionary interventions need to be truly exceptional and much more symmetrical, or the money supply and the public debt will ratchet up amid serious resource misallocation.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

2122. European Multinationals: A Globalization Scorecard

Author:: Stephen Thomsen
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Global competition requires a global response, and European firms are now at the forefront of attempts to become internationally diversified multinational enterprises. European firms have been accused at various times of being too focused on their integrating regional market or too tied by historical links with certain countries or regions to develop a genuinely global strategy. Yet figures for foreign direct investment suggest not only that European firms have invested far more abroad than their American and Japanese rivals, but that they have also done so in far more countries. Of particular relevance for long-term profitability, European enterprises have a much stronger presence in emerging markets than either US or Japanese firms. Europe has in turn received more inward investment from those countries than either the United States or Japan. These growing links between Europe and emerging economies could provide European firms with a competitive edge in what are the most promising markets of the future.
Topic:: Globalization and Markets
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

2123. Exploiting Europe's Strong Potential: Governance, Institutions and Policies

Author:: Paola Subacchi, Benedicta Marzinotto, and Vanessa Rossi
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: With the euro approaching the tenth anniversary of its establishment, this is a timely as well as critical moment to review policies and performance. Enough experience of the convergence and adjustment processes has been gained to better understand how they work and what problems have been created rather than solved. As the strengths – and the success – of the euro become more visible, so too do its weaknesses and the conflicts it creates. Are the appropriate mechanisms and governance in place to help manage Europe's economy so that it can realize its potential? Governance is critical because of the institutional complexity of the monetary union. Independent policy targets and policy instruments not only have to be consistent with each other, but also need to be integrated in a nonconflicting framework. There are two threads to this debate: convergence and adjustments across the euro area, and how the region as a whole is performing with regard to the rest of the world. Both imply a new approach to governance. When EMU was established, the euro area comprised 11 founding members. Now it comprises 15 and is slowly expanding. Ten years ago the emergence of China was more a possibility than a reality, while the 'Asian Tigers' were coming to terms with a devastating financial crisis. Now the rise of the emerging market economies and the enlargement of the global economy's playing field pose significant challenges to the competitiveness of the euro area. With the euro now becoming the second pillar of the international monetary system, EMU's external dimension has become very relevant. The way forward needs to blend the traditional concerns for macroeconomic stability and competitiveness with the more recent concern about the role of Europe in the global economy. All these dimensions need to be organized into a coherent agenda. The right policy should be implemented at the right time.
Topic:: Economics and Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:: Europe

2124. North Caucasus Weekly: Attempt on Ramzan Kadyrov's Life Reported

Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov on July 30 denied reports that he had been the target of an assassination attempt. “Those rumors are being generated either by the Wahhabis themselves or provocateurs straining for cheap sensationalism,” Gazeta.ru quoted Kadyrov as saying during a meeting with Chechnya's education and science minister, Anzor Muzaev. The Chechen president insisted that the situation in the republic is peaceful and stable. “Naturally, there is a circle of persons whom this [situation] doesn't suit,” he said. “This sort of verbiage has only one goal—to destabilize the situation in the region. These provocative fantasies are engendered by ideologists of the extremists and their henchmen. Jackals who don't have the guts to go into the woods themselves.” The Chechen president's press service also denied that there had been an attempt on Kadyrov's life, calling the reports “provocations aimed against the Chechen Republic and its president.”
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and North Caucasus

2125. Partnership or Power Play? How Europe should bring development into its trade deals with African, Caribbean, and Pacific countries

Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Europe is negotiating new trade deals with African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries. A true partnership in trade could radically transform the lives of one-third of all people living in poverty, providing farmers and small businesses with sustainable incomes and workers with decent jobs. But Europe is choosing power politics over partnership. The deals currently on the table will strip ACP countries of important policy tools they need in order to develop. They will fracture regional integration, exacerbate poverty and make it harder for countries to break away from commodity dependence. Despite massive pressure, many ACP countries are holding out for a fair deal. Europe needs to rethink, and agree to change course. Ultimately, it is in its own interests to do so.
Topic:: International Political Economy and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Australia/Pacific, and Caribbean

2126. Fast Forward: How the European Commission can take the lead in providing high-quality budget support for education and health

Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Developing-country governments desperately need more long-term and predictable aid, given through their budgets, to finance the expansion of health care, education, and other vital social services. The European Commission (EC) is one of the biggest donors providing this kind of essential budget support, and has innovative plans to further improve and increase this aid. European Union (EU) member states must support these ambitious plans. The EC in turn must do more to improve on this good start, delinking this aid from harmful International Monetary Fund (IMF) prescriptions, putting an end to unnecessary bureaucratic delays, and doing more to make its aid accountable to citizens in poor countries.
Topic:: Development, Education, and Health
Political Geography:: Europe

2127. North Caucasus Weekly: Ruslan Yamadaev Murdered in Moscow

Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Ruslan Yamadaev, the older brother of Vostok (East) battalion commander Sulim Yamadaev and former State Duma deputy who received a Hero of Russia award in August 2004 from then President Vladimir Putin, was shot to death in central Moscow on September 24. As is typically the case with high-profile murders in Russia, Yamadaev's killing has sparked a flurry of competing theories as to who was behind the deed.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, Moscow, and North Caucasus

2128. North Caucasus Weekly:Vostok and Zapad Battalions to be “Reorganized"

Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The deputy commander of Russia's army, Colonel General Vladimir Moltenskoi, announced on November 8 that the two Chechen-manned special force battalions of the Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), Vostok and Zapad, will be reformed into companies of the Defense Ministry's 42nd Motor Rifle Division, which isbased in Chechnya. According to RIA Novosti, Moltenskoi announced the reorganization at a meeting with Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov in Grozny. However, there was some confusion about the battalions' fate: Interfax quoted the Chechen president's press service as saying that Moltenskoi had said the battalions would be disbanded. Yet Moltenskoi told Interfax on November 8 that the units would not be disbanded but rather reorganized into companies within the 42nd Motor Rifle Division. Interfax on November 10 quoted Kadyrov's press service as saying that it had been stated during the meeting between the Chechen president and Moltenskoi onNovember 8 that the criminal investigation committee of the Russian Prosecutor General had ordered the Chechen Interior Ministry to bring Sulim Yamadaev to interrogators by force. Prague Watchdog reported on November 10 that the Chechen Interior Ministry had received a formal request on November 7 that Sulim Yamadaev be sent to the Gudermes district investigative unit for questioning. According to the website, Yamadaev is the principal suspect in the case of the murder of aGudermes district resident committed ten years ago.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2129. North Caucasus Weekly: Ingushetia's Parliament Confirms New Presiden

Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Ingushetia's parliament on October 31 confirmed Yunus-Bek Yevkurov as the republic's president, replacing Murat Zyazikov, who resigned the previous day (North Caucasus Weekly, October 31). According to Itar-Tass, 16 legislators out of the 18 who attended the session voted to confirm the 45-year-old colonel, while one voted against and one ballot was invalidated. The news agency reported that Yevkurov was born into an ethnic Ingush family in North Ossetia and graduated from the Ryazan Higher School of Airborne Troops in 1989. In 2004, he graduated from the Academy of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff, Russia's highest military education institution. In 1999, Yevkurov commanded a unit of Russian paratroopers that entered Kosovo and took control of the international airport ahead of the forces of other countries. As the Moscow Times wrote on November 1, Russian media reported that Yevkurov led the 200-man contingent that caught NATO off guard by racing from Bosnia to Kosovo to occupy the airport in Kosovo's capital of Pristina, an operation at the end of the Kosovo war that “risked a dangerous confrontation with NATO troops, who were also heading to the airport.” According to the English-language newspaper, it was later revealed that an armed clash was only averted because the local NATO commander, British General Michael Jackson, refused to be involved in a conflict that could “start World War III.” However, Itar-Tass, in its description of the incident, wrote that the Russian race to occupy the airport in Pristina “went down in the history of the Russian Airborne Troops as one of the most successful peacekeeping operations.”
Topic:: Security, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Bosnia, Asia, and Kosovo

2130. North Caucasus Weekly: Zyazikov Steps Dow

Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On October 30, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree ordering an early end to Murat Zyazikov's term as Ingushetia's president, Itar-Tass reported, citing the Russian presidential press service. Zyazikov, the former KGB general who headed Ingushetia for six and a half years, said that his resignation as Ingushetia's president was absolutely voluntary and connected to his transfer to another job. “I will be working in Moscow,” Interfax quoted him as saying. Zyazikov did not indicate what his new job would be.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

2131. PolicyWatch #1409: Al-Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Threatened

Author:: Richard Barrett
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In early September, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) -- the highest court in the European Union -- ruled that the EU's application of UN sanctions against Yasin Qadi and the al-Barakaat International Foundation infringed their basic rights, and declared the action illegal under EU law. Although the judgment applies only to these two parties, the ruling has far-reaching consequences, for not only the EU but also the entire UN system of targeted sanctions.
Topic:: Terrorism and United Nations
Political Geography:: Europe and Taliban

2132. North Caucasus Weekly: New Ingush President Shows Signs that he'll Take a Different Approach

Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: “From the very first moment of his appointment, General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov has behaved like a man sent to the front line with a special mission,” the piece stated. “He cancelled the inauguration ceremony and the celebrations that are normally held when a new Ingush president takes office. On his first day he visited the central mosque to take part in the evening prayers. His predecessors have also made such visits from time to time, but only as guests of honor. Yevkurov plans to rely primarily on the people, rather than on the siloviki and the bureaucrats. He let this be understood when, on returning from prayers, he requested support from the elders of the Ingush teips.”
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Ingushetia

2133. North Caucasus Weekly: Medov Removed as Ingushetia's Interior Minister

Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Russian Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliev removed Musa Medov as Ingushetia's interior minister on November 24. Medov, along with Murat Zyazikov, who was removed as Ingushetia's president late last month (North Caucasus Weekly, October 30), were accused by the republic's opposition party of involvement in the August 31 murder of Magomed Yevloev, founder of the independent Ingushetiya.ru website (North Caucasus Weekly, September 5). Ingushetiya.ru's successor website, Ingushetia.org, reported on November 25 that Medov has been replaced by Colonel Ruslan Meiriev, a former employee of the police department in the Siberian town of Nizhnevartovsk. Newsru.com on November 25 quoted sources in the federal Interior Ministry as saying that Medov had been given a job in the ministry's apparatus in Moscow—which is in effect a promotion. The website reported that Meiriev had been introduced to the staff of Ingush President Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and Deputy Russian Interior Minister Colonel-General Arkady Yedelev.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, Moscow, North Caucasus, and Ingushetia

2134. AK Party Survives Closure Case: What Is Next?

Author:: Ihsan D. Dagi
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: The Constitutional Court ruled not to close down the AK Party, relieving Turkey from an unprecedented level of political uncertainty, social and economic turmoil, and potential chaos. Instead, the court chose to keep the ruling party under close scrutiny by declaring it “a focal point of anti-secular activities,” and imposing financial measures.
Topic:: Government, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

2135. Saakashvili Pulled the Trigger: Turkey between Russia and Georgia

Author:: Hasan Ali Karasar
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: Turkey has been involved, historically and demographically, with many of the regions of “frozen conflict” in post-Soviet space. At this point, one might consider the position of Turkey as being at the epicenter of Euro-Atlantic and Russian extremes concerning the frozen conflicts. Georgia, since 1991, has been considered a valuable “strategic partner” by Turkey for several reasons. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's Caucasus Pact idea is a good opportunity to create an inclusive (Russia, Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) new foreign policy approach at this stage. This approach should be merged with the representation of all the frozen or unfrozen conflict areas, peoples, ethnic groups and regions included under the roof of such an alliance.
Topic:: NATO and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

2136. North Caucasus Weekly:Chechen and Federal Authorities Declare Sulim Yamadaev a Fugitive

Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The ongoing conflict between the pro-Moscow government and the Vostok battalion of the Russian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) intensified on August 6 when the Chechen authorities announced that the battalion's commander, Sulim Yamadaev, has been put on the federal wanted list for various crimes, including an alleged murder. On August 7, the Investigative Committee of the Russian Prosecutor General's Office confirmed that Yamadaev had been put on the federal wanted list for the 1998 murder of a Chechen businessman, Itar-Tass reported.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

2137. North Caucasus Weekly: Wanted Chechen Commander Leads his Battalion against Georgian Forces

Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Kavkazky Uzel reported on August 13 that members of the Chechen-manned Vostok battalion of the Russian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) were among the Russian forces that invaded Georgia. According to the website, the Vostok fighters were located in area of the Georgian town of Gori along with Sulim Yamadaev, the Vostok battalion commander. Yamadaev, who became a target of Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov's wrath following a confrontation and apparent shootout last April involving Vostok members and security forces loyal to Kadyrov, was put on Russia's federal wanted list earlier this month.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Georgia

2138. PolicyWatch #1376: Turkey Turns Cold to European Defense: Implications for Western Security

Author:: Erdal Tatli
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In June 2007, Turkey decided to turn its back on European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) after a long series of negotiations with the EU. Although the Cyprus issue has always complicated Turkey's involvement in ESDP, Turkey has been an important actor in Western security architecture for decades, and its withdrawal from the force has profound implications for the United States, Europe, and Western security institutions, including NATO.
Topic:: NATO
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

2139. PolicyWatch #1369: Turkey's Headscarf Legislation: The Negative Impact on EU Accession

Author:: Antonia Ruiz Jimenez
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In February 2008, Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) passed two constitutional amendments that intend to lift the ban on Islamic headscarves on college campuses. Although it is still unclear how the legislation will be implemented, the new laws are likely to have a negative impact on how the European Union sees Turkey. Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan states that the amendments protect individual and religious freedom -- two rights that are guaranteed under the EU's common legislative body. However, as the controversy surrounding the issue continues, the legal ambiguity created by the case could alienate Europe, making Turkey's EU accession bid even more difficult.
Topic:: Civil Society
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

2140. PolicyWatch #1368: Human Rights and the Basis for EU Sanctions against Iran

Author:: Emanuele Ottolenghi
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: When the UN Security Council approved the third round of sanctions against Iran by adopting Resolution 1803 in March 2008, U.S. policymakers anticipated that the European Union would follow past practice and enact additional punitive measures. Almost two months later, however, Europeans are still at loggerheads on how best to implement the resolution, with several countries -- mostly the ones with strong commercial interests in Iran -- still adamant that the EU should not go beyond the text of the resolution. The EU could resolve this internal dispute by refocusing its sanctions debate on Iran's human rights record, an issue on which it is often easier to build consensus in Europe.
Topic:: United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

2141. PolicyWatch #1367: Tackling Turkey's Image Problem in the European Union

Author:: Antonia Ruiz Jimenez
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In February 2007, the Austrian government became the latest member of the European Union to propose a referendum on Turkish accession, citing "differences in values and standards" between Turkey and the EU. Recent data, however, reveals that these cultural differences are not so pronounced. And at a time when Turkey's EU accession faces challenges, highlighting shared Turkish and European values could greatly enhance the prospect for Turkey's membership.
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Austria

2142. PolicyWatch #1362: Divergent European Approaches to Combating PKK Terrorism

Author:: Abdulkadir Onay
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Earlier this month, Europol -- the European Union law enforcement agency that handles criminal intelligence -- released its annual Terrorism Situation and Trend Report, part of which addresses the European criminal activities of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The release comes on the heels of a March 29 German report outlining considerable details about PKK activities in Germany. Although these reports help illustrate the extent of the group's European infrastructure, many European governments have still not taken serious steps to counter the threat, despite the PKK's presence on the EU's terrorism list.
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe

2143. PolicyWatch #1344: PKK Criminal Networks and Fronts in Europe

Author:: Abdulkadir Onay
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 13, Frank Urbancic, deputy counterterrorism coordinator at the State Department, told CNN-Turk, "The PKK [Kurdistan Workers Party] is like the mafia all over Europe." He added that in addition to its terrorist presence in Europe, the PKK has an "octopus-like structure carrying out criminal activity, including drug and people smuggling" to raise funds, as well as "fronts that provide cover to the organization's criminal and terror activities."
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

2144. PolicyWatch #1343: Headscarf Dilemma: Implications for Turkey and the United States

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 9, Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) passed two constitutional amendments legalizing a specific women's headscarf on college campuses. The Turkish turban -- not to be confused with the South Asian male turban -- first emerged in the country in the 1980s and has long represented an extremely divisive political issue. Turkey's European-style secularism, which keeps religion and its symbols out of government and education, considers the headwear a political symbol -- a sentiment with which AKP prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed to agree in public remarks he made on January 15. For nearly two decades, the secular view had led Turkish courts to ban the turban in certain public contexts. Now that the headwear is permitted on campuses, what will happen next in Turkey? And what implications might this legislation hold for the United States?
Topic:: Civil Society
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, South Asia, Turkey, and Middle East

2145. Making Bosnia Work: Why EU Accession is Not Enough

Author:: Edward P. Joseph and R. Bruce Hitchner
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: More than twelve years after the Dayton Agreement ended the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the stagnant, divided country is about to enter a potentially transformative process. On June 16, Bosnia will sign a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the European Union, cementing the country's relationship and identifying it as a prospective EU member. The SAA not only launches a process of sweeping institutional reform, but also makes Bosnia eligible for new categories of financial assistance and imposes new responsibilities on Bosnia's leaders. Advocates believe that the "sink or swim" approach of the European Commission (EC, the EU entity that traditionally leads SAA implementation) will finally wean Bosnia from dependence on international authority toward genuine cross-ethnic cooperation over a shared goal.
Topic:: Development
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

2146. Turkish-Armenian Relations: Will Football Diplomacy Work?

Author:: Fatih Ozbay and Bülent Aras
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: The Georgian-Russian crisis, the political and economic alienation of Armenia in the Caucasus, Turkey's new project to establish the Caucasus Stability Platform, and the Turkish and Armenian administrations' willingness to normalize relations have created a suitable atmosphere in which to put an end to the problems between Turkey and Armenia. Turkish President Abdullah Gul accepted the invitation of his counterpart, Armenian President Serge Sarkisian, to watch the World Cup-qualifying football match between Turkey and Armenia in Yerevan. This visit was considered an important symbolic move. It will be a matter of time to see whether this 'football diplomacy' will pave the way for the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Armenia, and Georgia

2147. North Caucasus Weekly: Police Disperse Demonstrators Protesting Killing of Website Owner

Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Police in Ingushetia's largest city, Nazran, forcefully broke up an anti-government protest on September 2, two days after police shot dead Magomed Yevloev, owner of the opposition Ingushetiya.ru website. Reuters reported that the protest started during the funeral of Yevloev, who died after being shot while in police custody. The news agency quoted Magomed Mutsolgov of the Ingushetia-based human rights group Mashr as saying police had arrived at around 5:30 a.m. local time to disperse a crowd of around 50 men who had been sleeping in Nazran's main square. Police and military vehicles were then deployed to block access to the main square, Mutsolgov told Reuters. Protest organizers later vowed to try and force their way back into the square on September 2. However, an Ingushetia Interior Ministry press official denied the police had forced the demonstrators to leave and insisted they had left peacefully. “We didn't even have to make any arrests,” Reuters quoted the official as saying.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2148. North Caucasus Weekly: Gunmen Target Zyazikov's Home and Cousin

Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Newsru.com reported on September 11 that unidentified attackers had fired grenade launchers and machine guns at Ingush President Murat Zyazikov's home in the Nazran municipal district village of Barsuki the previous evening. A home located nearby belonging to relatives of Zyazikov was also reportedly targeted. According to Ingushetiya.ru, there was no information on whether there were any casualties from the attack, which lasted around 20 minutes. Ingushetia's Interior Ministry, meanwhile, denied that such an attack took place, Interfax reported.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2149. North Caucasus Weekly:Attacks Continue in Ingusheti

Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: A car belonging to an official believed to be a relative of Musa Medov, Ingushetia's Interior Minister, was blown up in Nazran on October 8. The opposition Ingushetia.org website reported that a powerful explosion took place 100 meters from the Interior Ministry building in Nazran while Itar-Tass quoted a source as saying that the explosion was an attempt on the life of Daud Medov, the deputy head of the Interior Ministry's vehicle maintenance department. According to Newsru.com, the blast was caused by an explosive device that was attached to the undercarriage of Medov's Lada Priora car and that the bomb went off when the car was parked outside his home and as Medov had left his home and gone outside. Neither Medov nor anyone else was hurt in the blast, but the car was burned out.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2150. North Caucasus Weekly: Suicide Bomber Targets Ingush Interior Minist

Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: A suicide bomber attacked the motorcade of Ingush Interior Minister Musa Medov on September 30. The Moscow Times reported on October 1 that the male bomber attempted to ram a Lada hatchback packed with explosives into Medov's convoyin downtown Nazran at 8:20 a.m., local time, but the car exploded before it collided with the minister's armored Mercedessedan. According to Gazeta.ru, Ingush prosecutors said Medov and his bodyguards were unharmed, while five by standers were wounded and several houses in the vicinity of the blast were damaged. Kommersant reported on October 1 that amongthe injured were a taxi driver and his passenger who were driving by when the bomb detonated and two women living in apartment buildings nearby.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2151. North Caucasus Weekly:Opposition Website: Ingush Rebels Seize Village

Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Ingushetia.ru reported on October 16 that rebel fighters had seized two villages in the republic. According to the opposition website, the militants had blocked the entrances to the villages of Muzhichi and Yandare from the Rostov-Baku federal highway and had set up their own checkpoints. Yet sources in Ingushetia's Interior Ministry called the report “disinformation,” while the republic's prosecutor, Yury Turygin, told Interfax that neither he nor the Interior Ministry nor any other republican law-enforcement bodies had received any information about “bandits” having seized villages.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2152. North Caucasus Weekly: Rebels Reportedly Kill Dozens of Servicemen in Ingushet

Author:: Mairbek Vatchagaev
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Following the capture of the foothill villages of Muzhichi and Yandare in Ingushetia on the evening of October 16 (North Caucasus Weekly, October 16), militants from the Ingush Jamaat “Shariat” carried out another series of high-profile actions against Russian troops. According to various sources, more than 50 Russian military personnel were killed and wounded in two assaults by the militants on the Galashki Highway on October 18, which would make this the most audacious attack by the jamaat members in Ingushetia to date. According to the media reports, the attack on the Russian military motorcade took place on the Alkhasty-Surkhokhi road in Ingushetia's Nazran district at ten in the morning. According to Ingush Prosecutor General Yury Turygyn, only two soldiers were killed and five were wounded in the attack. All of them were from Interior Ministry detachments based in the village of Alkhasty (RIA Novosti, October 18) According to Turygyn, the assault was carried out by members of “illegal armed formations” with the purpose of destabilizing the situation in the region. Turygyn, however, was apparently referring to the casualties in an attack on another column of servicemen that had occurred earlier on October 18, and the Regnum News Agency quoted a source in the Interior Ministry department forIngushetia's Sunzha district as saying that all the soldiers in the column targeted in the second attack were killed except forone and that the total number killed was around 50. The surviving serviceman was transported to the Sunzha Central District Hospital, the source said (www.regnum.ru/news/1071507.html). Thus, according to the Ingush police, two attacks took place, not one, as the Ingush Prosecutor General's Office claims.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2153. Albania matkalla Natoon ja Euroopan unioniin - Vapauden ja velvollisuuksien vaikea yhtälö

Author:: Tanja Tamminen
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Naton huippukokouksessa Bukarestissa 2.-4. huhtikuuta 2008 Albania kutsuttiin aloi t tamaan jäsenyys-neuvottelut sotilasliiton kanssa. Monessa suhteessa Länsi-Balkanin kehityksessä hännillä ollut Albania siirtyykin nyt kärkikaartiin. Albanian Nato-jäsenyys on selkeä viesti esimerkiksi parlamenttivaaleihin valmistuvalle Serbialle: Belgradista käsin takapajuisena nähty Albania on nyt siirtynyt selkeästi naapurimaidensa edelle euro-atlanttisessa integraatiossa. Tämän toivotaan herättävän serbialaisäänestäjät valitsemaan EU-tien tulevissa vaaleissa. Naapureiden positiivisella esimerkillä onkin Balkanilla usein tehokkaampi uudistusvoima kuin Brysselin tai Washingtonin julkilausumilla. Albanian rooli on 1990-luvulta ollut rakentava alueellisissa kysymyksissä. Se ei ole vaarantanut mah-dollisuuksiaan Nato-tai EU-jäsenyyteen liian kansallismielisellä Kosovo-politiikalla – se on päinvastoin antanut kaiken tukensa länsiliittoutuman politiikalle Balkanilla. EU on jälleen vahvistanut Länsi-Balkanin jäsenyysnäkymiä poliittisella retoriikalla niin komission tuoreessa Länsi-Balkanin tiedonannossa kuin ulkoministerien EU-Länsi-Balkan ministerikokouk-sen julkilausumassa. Tästä huolimatta Albanian EU-jäsenyyteen on vielä pitkä matka. Maan on ensin toimeenpantava EU:n kanssa solmimansa vakaus-ja assosiaatiosopimus. EU-lähentymisen hitautta kompensoidakseen unioni väläyttelee alueelle viisumivapauden mahdollisuutta. Albania on yhä heikko valtio: se kärsii raastavista sisäpoliittista ristiriidoista ja poliittisen johdon epäkyp-syydestä. EU-jäsenyys on liian kaukainen tavoite velvoittaakseen maan johdon todellisiin uudistuksiin. Monet poliitikot ajattelevat vain lyhyen tähtäimen etuja – vaalimenestystä tai taloudellista voittoa. Kommunistidiktatuurin taakka näkyy yhä yhteiskunnan kehityksessä mutta myös käytännössä muun muassa raskaan teollisuuden saastuttamina alueina tai vaarallisina vanhenevina asevarastoina.
Political Geography:: Europe, Balkans, and Albania

2154. The sustainability of Russia's resurgence

Author:: Mikko Patokallio
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: In recent years, Russia's resurgence has been driven by favourable conditions rather than solid foundations. Despite the favourable conditions, Russia's resurgence has only achieved mixed results. Buoyed by economic growth, Russia has become wealthy, assertive and confident; but the country has also alienated and provoked its neighbours and the West. Sustaining these conditions is unlikely due to problems resulting from Russia's internal structural weaknesses and assertive foreign policy. Without change, these problems are likely to worsen. Energy exports – the cornerstone of Russia's resurgence – are set to decline. The end of this boom threatens Russia's domestic stability and ability to tackle other long-term threats as external resistance to Russia hardens.
Topic:: Economics and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2155. From Hegemony to New Geopolitical Competition: Assessing Russia's Strategic Footprint In Central Asia

Author:: Igor Torbakov
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Russia's conduct in the post-Soviet space in general and its policies toward Central Asia in particular should be seen within the context of Russia's post-imperial readjustment. The notion of the sphere of “privileged interests” currently advanced by the Kremlin is a clear indication that Russia's search for a new modus operandi with its ex-Soviet neighbours is a painful and, essentially, an open-ended process. Moscow views Central Asia as an area of great strategic importance as it presents both considerable opportunities (due to the region's rich energy resources) and serious threats (stemming from the region's inherent instability and its proximity to volatile Afghanistan). Russia's key interests in Central Asia appear to be preservation of the region's stability, strengthening control over the region's energy resources, and balancing other major actors that are increasing their presence in the region – the United States and China. The effectiveness of the Kremlin's policies in Central Asia seems to be constrained by the nature of Russia's current socio-political system whose key features are authoritarianism and rent-seeking. The latter prompts Moscow to act as a conservative rather than reformist force in the region. Russia's goal of maintaining strategic pre-eminence in Central Asia underpinned by Moscow's significantly increased economic and political clout may ultimately not be realized. The odds are that, given the rise of China, Russia may prove to be a weaker competitor. The European Union's strategic interests increasingly compel the bloc to engage the Central Asian nations, particularly in the spheres of energy and security. Eventually, Russia's wariness of China's growing economic and political clout might prompt Moscow to seek deeper cooperation with Brussels in Central Asia.
Topic:: International Political Economy and Oil
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

2156. Sarkozy og Vichy-syndromet

Author:: Cecilie Felicia Stokholm Banke
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Den franske præsident gjorde sig i begyndelsen af 2008 bemærket med sit forslag om Holocaust-undervisning for alle børn i 10-års alderen. Men Frankrig har længe været foregangsland for bevarelsen af mindet om Holocaust. Sarkozy gør reelt, hvad andre regeringsledere har gjort før ham. Han inddrager Holocaust – Shoah – i sin egen politiske strategi. Og det siger mere om, hvilken betydning mindet om Holocaust har i den internationale politiske kultur, end det siger om Sarkozy.
Topic:: Education, Genocide, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

2157. The New EU Strategy towards Central Asia: A View from the Region

Author:: Nargis Kassenova
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The German Presidency of the EU in the first half of 2007 inspired great hopes regarding the development of relations between the European Union and the states of Central Asia. In Brussels and other European capitals, it was expected that Germany, as an EU political and economic heavyweight and one of the key promoters of the Common Foreign and Security Policy, would be able to foster a coordinated Central Asian policy giving direction and coherence to European engagement in the region. It was widely hoped – within both the governments of Central Asia and the societies of the region – that Germany, which has traditionally been the most pro-active European country in the region, would elevate the relations between the EU and Central Asian states to a higher level.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, Asia, and Germany

2158. What do we know about the economics of adaptation?

Author:: Asbjørn Aaheim and Marianne Aasen
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: An attempt to summarise the state of knowledge about social and economic challenges related to climate change, for example based on the latest IPCC reports, would probably give the impression that impacts, adaptation and vulnerability are a question of interactions between people and institutions within small local communities (IPCC, 2007a), whereas mitigation can be addressed by political analyses and economics (IPCC, 2007b). In most economic studies, the motivation behind mitigation is presented as that of limiting greenhouse gas emissions to a given target
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

2159. Adaptation and Mainstreaming of EU Climate Change Policy: An Actor-Based Perspective

Author:: Darryn McEvoy, Kate Lonsdale, and Piotr Matczak
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Adaptation to climate change (in comparison to the mitigation agenda) is a relatively new focus for both research and policy communities. Drawing from ongoing 'actor-based' research being carried out for the ADAM project, this briefing paper reports on the knowledge base being developed through a process of engagement with experts and key stakeholders across a variety of countries, landscape types, sectors, institutions and actors. The concluding discussion then focuses on some of the implications of these early findings for both EU policy and decision-making more generally.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:: Europe

2160. The EU's Limited Response to Belarus' Pseudo 'New Foreign Policy'

Author:: George Dura
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Relations between the European Union and Belarus have seen little change since President Alexander Lukashenko came to power in 1994. Belarus has languished in a state of selfimposed political isolation despite the subsequent waves of enlargement – most notably, the 2004 enlargement which made Belarus a direct neighbour of the EU – and the formulation in 2004 of the European Union's Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). The EU's dual-track approach of imposing sanctions and trade restrictions whilst promoting democratisation in Belarus have so far yielded minimal results.
Topic:: Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Belarus

2161. What lessons can be learned from the EU emissions trading scheme?

Author:: Christian Egenhofer and Noriko Fujiwara
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) is designed to help EU member states achieve their commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a cost-effective way. It was not meant to work as a stand-alone tool but as part of the package of abatement measures across the board. It is a cap-and-trade system. Member states first impose caps on GHG emissions – initially only CO2 until 2012 – from installations in specified sectors, mainly the power sector and industry subsectors (e.g. steel, cement, glass, paper and pulp). Emissions from these sectors amount to 40% of total EU emissions. Next, they allocate allowances to installations. Each installation surrenders a number of allowances equal to the total emissions from that installation during the preceding year.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:: Europe

2162. The Commission's New Border Package: Does it take us one step closer to a 'cyber-fortress Europe'?

Author:: Florian Geyer, Sergio Carrera, and Elspeth Guild
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The European Commission presented a new 'Border Package' on 13 February 2008, setting out its vision of how to foster the further management of the EU's external border. Billed in a Commission press release as a “comprehensive vision for an integrated European border management system for the 21st century”, one of the key elements of this package is a Communication aimed at establishing an EU entry/exit system registering the movement of specific categories of third country nationals at the external borders of the EU. This Communication furthermore recommends the setting up of an Automated Border Control System enabling the automated verification of a traveller's identity (for both citizens and non-EU citizens alike), based on biometric technology as well as an Electronic Travel Authorisation System – abbreviated to ETA – which would oblige non- EU travellers to provide personal data for a pre-departure online check.
Topic:: Security and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Europe

2163. Making sense of Sarkozy's Union for the Mediterranean

Author:: Michael Emerson
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: resident Sarkozy's proposed Union for the Mediterranean (or UMed) has so far been poorly conceived and, to say the least, awkwardly presented politically. However this does not mean that nothing good can come of it. The Barcelona process and its confusing combination with the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) have neither been a disaster nor a brilliant success. There is a case for streamlining a single European Mediterranean policy, rationalising and properly integrating Barcelona, the ENP and new ideas that the UMed initiative may produce. Both Italy and Spain as well as the South Mediterranean states themselves appear concerned not to undermine the existing structures (Barcelona and ENP). Steps could be made to lighten the overweight participation of the EU and all its 27 member states in too many meetings with too many participants and too few results, drawing on models that have emerged in the EU's Northern maritime regions. However, the EU as a whole will not agree to delegate the essential initiative on strategic matters to just its Southern coastal states – as has been made clear in recent exchanges between President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel. In addition the EU will also want to maintain a balance between its Northern and Southern priorities, and if the UMed becomes a new impetus for the South, an equivalent but different policy move can be contemplated for the EU's East European neighbours
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Spain, Italy, and Barcelona

2164. What Future for the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice? Recommendations on EU Migration and Borders Policies in a Globalising World

Author:: Didier Bigo, Sergio Carrera, and Elspeth Guild
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The European Interest: Succeeding in the Age of Globalisation, COM(2007) 581 final, Brussels 3.10.2007, which states: “The EU is already working on many of the policy elements needed to equip it to take on the challenge of globalization with confidence…in the coming months, the Commission will be putting new ideas on the table to address these key challenges…Review of internal policies is already under way, aiming to reshape Europe to face gloablisation and give it the right platform to look beyond its borders.” Further the Communication identifies “Migration in a Globalized World” as one of the key political objectives and states: “In a Europe with no internal borders, the changing demands of an ageing society and a labour market in constant evolution have challenged established assumptions about immigration… a new global approach is needed so that migration strikes the right balance between the risk of labour market shortages, economic impacts, negative social consequences, integration policies and external policy objectives”. Information about the current financial Framework Programme on Solidarity and the Management of Migration Flows for the period 2007- 2013 and about the four Funds comprising it (European Refugee Fund, External Borders Fund, the European Return Fund and the European Integration Fund) can be found at See the original European Commission's proposal in the Communication on a framework programme on Solidarity and the Management of Migration Flows for the period.
Topic:: Human Rights, Migration, Immigration, and Law
Political Geography:: Europe and Brussels

2165. Iceland on the brink? Options for a Small, Financially Active Economy in the Current Financial Crisis Environment

Author:: Daniel Gros
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: For small financially active countries the exchange rate assumes particular importance, not only as a shock absorber, but potentially also as a source of shocks during financial market crises. This is very much in evidence today in the case of Iceland which is being hit hard by the recent turbulence in financial markets.
Topic:: Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

2166. Checks and Balances: Dividing the Directorate General for Justice, Freedom and Security in two – an Interior and a Justice branch

Author:: Hasso Lieber
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The time is ripe for a re-think of the area of justice and home affairs, and this includes the way in which these policies are re-structured at the institutional level within the European Commission. In most of the EU's member states, the ministries of justice and the interior are separate. This is not just a question of tradition; it is rather the notion of checks and balances that speaks in favour of this separation. The separation of justice and home affairs should therefore progress from being a European standard to becoming a standard for Europe. What has been achieved in nearly all member states should also apply to the European Commission. As there will be a new incumbent in 2009 anyway, now is the time for an independent Commissioner for Justice.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: Europe

2167. Time to think of a strategic bargain with Russia

Author:: Michael Emerson
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The recent past has been a miserable time for political relations between Russia and both the EU and the US. While business has been booming on the back of Russia's huge gains from the skyrocketing price of oil and gas, the foreign policy scene has been desolate.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, and Europe

2168. A new budget for the European Union?

Author:: Stefano Micossi, Maria Teresa Salvemini, and Alfonso Iozzo
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The present budget of the European Union has long ceased to represent European policy priorities; it is the result of decisions taken decades ago and subsequent incremental adjustments decided under the pressure of external events or for political expediency. Its increasing detachment from emerging needs and policy priorities undermines support for the Union among public opinion.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:: Europe

2169. Is the League of Democracies a Bad Idea? How Europe should respond

Author:: Richard Youngs and Michael Emerson
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The idea of an official organisation of democratic states wishing to promote democracy worldwide has surfaced periodically in recent years. In 2000 the Community of Democracies was inaugurated and survives as a body committed to supporting democratic change (and we comment on this little-noticed initiative further below). Now the notion is gaining further currency. US Presidential candidate John McCain has advocated a League of Democracies. And analyst Robert Kagan, an advisor to McCain, has recently made a contribution on the subject in the Financial Times. It is quite possible that the European Union will need to adopt a position on this proposal.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and International Organization
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

2170. Adaptation to Climate Change: Why is it needed and how can it be implemented?

Author:: Christian Egenhofer, Asbjørn Aaheim, Darryn McEvoy, Frans Berkhout, Reinhard Mechler, Henry Neufeldt, Anthony Patt, Paul Watkiss, Anita Wreford, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, and Carlo Lavalle
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This Policy Brief provides a first overview of the state of ADAM research that was discussed during the first ADAM-CEPS seminar on 12 October 2007. It brought together academic experts, policy-makers and the civil society to discuss adaptation issues and (preliminary) ADAM research results.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe

2171. What next? How to save the Treaty of Lisbon

Author:: Daniel Gros and Sebastian Kurpas
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: In the wake of the Irish no-vote on the Treaty of Lisbon, numerous scenarios are currently being debated. This paper critically assesses the legality and political feasibility of the principal proposals and then puts forward an alternative 'Plan B', which we believe would amply satisfy both criteria.
Topic:: International Organization, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe and Lisbon

2172. The Future of European Electricity: Choices before 2020

Author:: Arno Behrens, Henry Neufeldt, Gunnar Eskeland, Eberhard Jochem, Thure Traber, and Nathan Rive
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The electricity sector plays a central role in the European Union's efforts to achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions of at least 20% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. While the electricity sector is currently responsible for about one-third of Europe's total energy-related GHG emissions, there are large potentials for reducing emissions. Mitigation strategies will need to focus on more efficient electricity use, but also on improved conversion rates and new technologies such as renewables and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Apart from mitigation of climate change, the sector will also have to adapt to climate change. Global warming will have a significant impact on the ability to generate electricity and to deliver it without interruption. This ADAM-CEPS Policy Brief focuses on four issues relevant to the nexus between climate change and the electricity sector.
Topic:: Energy Policy and Markets
Political Geography:: Europe

2173. Is Social Europe Fit for Globalisation?

Author:: Jørgen Mortensen, ain Begg, and Juraj Draxler
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This policy brief picks up the main observations and arguments included in a study undertaken by CEPS for the Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities of the European Commission. It was presented by Iain Begg at a major Commission conference in Brussels on 16 April 2008, which had broad attendance by officials, media people and researchers, and was concluded by a keynote speech by José Manuel Barroso, President of the Commission. The conference took place at a time of emerging financial crisis and rising oil and food prices, aspects emphasised by some speakers as elements throwing new light on some of the arguments in the report. Hans-Gert Pöttering, President of the European Parliament, stressed that promotion of knowledge and innovation constitutes an important condition for enhancing the competitiveness of the European economy. Thus, the Union should take on a leadership role in combining globalisation with social policy, fighting climate change and fostering environmental stability. Mr. Barroso, in his conclusions underlined the necessity of a renewal of social policies based on equal opportunities, access and solidarity.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Europe

2174. Essential Steps for the European Union after the "No" Votes in France, the Netherlands Ireland

Author:: John Temple Lang and Eamonn Gallagher
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: In the referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon in June 2008, Irish voters who voted against the Treaty gave several specific reasons as well as a variety of vague or general reasons that were unrelated to anything that was in the Treaty. These vague or general reasons are important because they probably were also significant influences in the “no” votes in France and the Netherlands. Moreover, they may be shared by a substantial but unknown number of people in other EU member states who did not get an opportunity to vote in a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty or the Treaty for a Constitution. There were positive referendum results in Luxembourg and Spain. Other countries promised referenda, but did not hold them.
Topic:: International Organization, Regional Cooperation, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Netherlands, and Ireland

2175. Al Qaeda in the West as a Youth Movement: The Power of a Narrative

Author:: Olivier Roy
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Why do we bother, in Europe, about 'Islamic radicalisation'? The answer seems obvious. There are at least two good reasons: one is terrorism, with its security implications; the other is the issue of integrating second-generation migrants in Europe, apparently the most fertile ground for recruiting terrorists. For most observers, the link between terrorism and integration is a given fact. Al Qaeda-type terrorist activities carried out either in Europe, or by European residents and citizens abroad, are seen as the extreme form, and hence as a logical consequence, of Islam- related radicalisation. There is a teleological approach consisting of looking in retrospect at every form of radicalisation and violence associated with the Muslim population in Europe as a harbinger of terrorism.
Topic:: Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:: Europe

2176. Closing the Community Deficit in the EU

Author:: Amitai Etzioni
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The main challenge currently facing the EU is a community deficit: the low valuation the majority of its citizens accord the evolving collectivity. The EU is challenged by the mismatch between its increasing supranational decision making and the strong loyalties of its citizens to their respective nation states. To deal with this community deficit, the EU must either introduce strong measures of community building or else significantly scale back its plans for action in unison.
Topic:: International Organization and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe

2177. The French Presidency's European Pact on Immigration and Asylum: Intergovernmentalism vs Europeanisation? Security vs Rights?

Author:: Sergio Carrera and Elspeth Guild
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: well before the French Presidency took over the European Council in July 2008, it was well known that immigration was going to constitute one of its central priorities. The French enthusiasm coincided with an increasing interest by Barroso's Commission in this domain. The French government and the European Commission started to fine-tune their respective strategies and 'the way forward' through a series of informal meetings. This materialised in the presentation of two policy outputs: First, a Commission Communication on a Common Immigration Policy for Europe and another on a Policy Plan on Asylum; and second, various drafts of the French Presidency's European Pact on Immigration and Asylum, the latest of which appeared on September 3rd. This Policy Brief refers to all previous drafts offered up for public comment so far.
Topic:: Human Rights and Immigration
Political Geography:: Europe

2178. Ten Issues and Recommendations for the European Parliament Elections on Freedom, Security and Justice

Author:: Sergio Carrera, Elspeth Guild, and Kees Groenendijk
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The European Parliament (EP) elections will take place on 4-7 June 2009. The various political parties of the EU are now beginning to focus on their programmes for the upcoming campaign. Many areas of EU policy will be critical during these elections and the themes will vary substantially from one member state to another in an EU of 27 countries. Still, the issues that have become part of EU law over the past five years through the exercise of Treaty powers in the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice (AFSJ) will need to be addressed all across the Union. These policies lay at the heart of every person's interest and concern as they have deep implications for his or her degree of liberty and security.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe

2179. The Demonstration Phase for Carbon Capture and Storage: The case for public support

Author:: Christian Egenhofer
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is seen as a key technology, without which the achievement of EU and global climate change targets will be extremely difficult. In order to reach these targets, the EU aims to have CCS technology available on a commercial basis as of 2020, which adds a certain sense of urgency to the endeavour. To this end, in 2007, the European Council announced up to 12 large-scale CCS demonstration plants. No decision on possible public financial support has so far been taken.
Topic:: Climate Change and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

2180. Recalibrating EU Policy towards the Western Balkans

Author:: Michael Emerson
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The time is not only ripe but pressing for the EU and the states of the Western Balkans to recalibrate and reinforce the current pre-accession strategy. Trade policy should be moved beyond existing free trade commitments for all the Western Balkans to enter the customs union of the EU and Turkey. Eurozone doctrine should be adapted to realities. Rather than regarding the use of the euro by Montenegro and Kosovo as an unfortunate turn of events, the costs and benefits of unilateral adoption of the euro by not-yet member states of the region should be more openly appraised, and the option to 'euroise' recognised as a possibility. It is good that the EU has moved at the declaratory level toward s visa 'liberalisation', which means scrapping visas rather than just 'facilitation' measures. However the Commission has not yet published guidelines or timelines for this. The region should be put on track for access to the Structural Funds on terms and scales progressively approaching those from which new member states such as Bulgaria and Romania already benefit. The ratio of these aid receipts between the new member states and the Western Balkans is currently 4:1; the former are receiving more than they can handle efficiently, whereas the Western Balkans have huge unsatisfied needs. Overall the case is made for significant moves towards 'functional membership' of the whole of the region with the EU, which would be a highly useful advance, irrespective of how or when the EU overcomes its Lisbon Treaty hiatus.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Kosovo, Bulgaria, Balkans, Romania, and Lisbon

2181. Ireland and the Lisbon Treaty: Quo Vadis?

Author:: John O'Brennan
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The rejection of the Lisbon Treaty by the electorate on 12 June 2008 has presented the Irish government with the most serious crisis in external relations since the Second World War. This was the third such referendum on Europe held in Ireland since the millennium and the second plebiscite in three to result in a rejection of an EU Treaty following the failed Nice poll in 2001. There is no obvious solution to the dilemma the government faces and no obvious pathway to achieve ratification. There is however a clear consensus amongst the political parties that ratification constitutes both a clear political priority and a fundamental national interest. At the October European Council summit in Brussels, Taoiseach Brian Cowen promised to come back to the December meeting “with a view to our defining together the elements of a solution and a common path to follow”. But the external context is now clear – EU leaders indicated an unwillingness to re-negotiate any part of the Treaty: it will be up to Ireland to find an Irish solution to this European problem. Thus the opportunity cost of the No vote has become somewhat clearer: Ireland faces marginalisation and isolation in Europe if a solution to the Lisbon dilemma is not found. The domestic context is also somewhat clearer now that we have access to extensive data that sheds light on the reasons for the No vote in the 12 June poll. In assessing the options for ratification this paper draws upon that data, presented in among other sources, the post-referendum Eurobarometer survey and the government-commissioned Millward Brown IMS research findings.
Topic:: Government, International Organization, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe, Lisbon, and Ireland

2182. Climate Governance Post-2012, Options for EU Policy-Making

Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This brief focuses on three issues that are especially important in the long-term development of the climate regime: (a) the challenge of the fragmentation of negotiations and governance systems; (b) the challenge of steering and evaluating novel types of privatised and market-based governance mechanisms; and (c) the challenge of designing architectures for global adaptation governance. These three core issues of fragmentation, privatisation and adaptation can be related to the overarching need to define the architecture of the post-2012 regime – and of any subsequent regimes that may follow a Copenhagen agreement.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Privatization, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe

2183. The Banking Crisis: Causes, Consequences and Remedies

Author:: Paul De Grauwe
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The paradigm that financial markets are efficient has provided the intellectual backbone for the deregulation of the banking sector since the 1980s, allowing universal banks to be fully involved in financial markets, and investment banks to become involved in traditional banking. There is now overwhelming evidence that financial markets are not efficient. Bubbles and crashes are an endemic feature of financial markets in capitalist countries. Thus, as a result of deregulation, the balance sheets of universal banks became fully exposed to these bubbles and crashes, undermining the stability of the banking system. The Basel approach to stabilise the banking system has as an implicit assumption that financial markets are efficient, allowing us to model the risks universal banks take and to compute the required capital ratios that will minimise this risk. I argue that this approach is unworkable because the risks that matter for universal banks are tail risks, associated with bubbles and crashes. These cannot be quantified. As a result, there is only one way out, and that is to return to narrow banking, a model that emerged after the previous large-scale banking crisis of the 1930s but that was discarded during the 1980s and 1990s under the influence of the efficient market paradigm.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

2184. On the way to Copenhagen via Poznań: Preliminary thinking about a post-2012 climate deal

Author:: Noriko Fujiwara
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The annual climate change conference (COP14/CMP4) will take place in Poznań, 1–12 December 2008. This Policy Brief aims at providing a brief assessment of where we are on the road from Bali to Copenhagen, thinking ahead of Poznań in relation to the current negotiating environment and exploring the possible nature of an agreed outcome to be reached in Copenhagen at the end of 2009.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe and Bali

2185. Country Economic Forecasts: Germany

Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Germany appears to be slipping deeper into recession. The latest industrial figures are alarming: production fell 2.1% in October and orders were down 17.3%. If output remained at current levels to year-end, then Q4 would be down 3.2% on Q3, but the situation is deteriorating. The manufacturing PMI is below 40 and the expectations component of the Ifo is at its lowest level since the first oil crisis in the early 1970s. Key to the rapid decline has been an abrupt halt to investment, both in Germany and globally. Investment in machinery and equipment had stalled in Q3 and domestic orders of capital goods then dropped 6% in both October and November. Business investment will fall by over 4% in 2009. But exports have also seen a rapid decline, having fallen in both Q2 and Q3, while export expectations are near all-time lows. Export volumes are expected to drop next year, despite the depreciation of the euro. We have slashed our growth forecasts, with GDP now likely to fall by at least 1% in Q4. And we now do not expect the economy to emerge from recession until 2009H2 and for the economy to shrink by over 2% in 2009 overall – the biggest drop in over 60 years. Rapidly declining oil prices and an extended recession mean inflation could fall close to zero by next summer. Inflation has already slowed to 1.4% in November from a peak of 3.1% in July.
Topic:: Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

2186. Defense Monitor, Volume XXXVII, No. 3 - May/June 2008

Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: On July 1, 2008 when France assumes the European Union (EU) presidency for six months, one of French President Nicolas Sarkozy's top priorities will be the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP). According to Le Monde, Sarkozy is planning a "Saint-Malo (B)" – a reference to the Anglo- French declaration signed on Dec. 4, 1998, relaunching movement towards an EU defense capacity, and leading eventually to the birth of ESDP.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Europe and France

2187. North Caucasus Weekly- Volume IX, Issue 46

Author:: Alexander Melikishvili
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: IN THIS ISSUE: Women Found Murdered in Chechnya Aushev: Moscow Should Talk to Rebels in the North Caucasus Assassination of Vladikavkaz Mayor: Business or Politics? Briefs Kadyrov Claims Demise of Insurgency: Rebels Respond with Wave of New Attacks By Mairbek Vatchagaev Lezgin Refugees from Dagestan Seek Refuge in Georgia's Kakheti Region.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2188. North Caucasus Weekly - Volume IX, Issue 45

Author:: Fatima Tlisova
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: IN THIS ISSUE: Medov Removed as Ingushetia's Interior Minister Human Rights Violations Remain Rife in Ingushetia Sulim Yamadaev Says a Chechen Unit Has Been Sent to Moscow to Kill Him Briefs Dagestan's Sharia Jamaat Expands and Reorganizes By Mairbek Vatchagaev Circassian Congress Calls for Unification of Circassian Republics in North Caucasus.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2189. North Caucasus Weekly - Volume IX, Issue 47

Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: IN THIS ISSUE: Ingush President Makes Opposition Lawyer His Adviser Kadyrov Performs the Hajj Pilgrimage Sharia Jamaat Threatens Dagestani Police, Officials, Clergy KBR Authorities Again Vow to Catch Anzor Astemirov Militant Actions Shake Up Dagestan.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2190. The Impact on Domestic Policy of the EU Code of Conduct on Arms Exports The Czech Republic, the Netherlands and Spain

Author:: Mark Bromley
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: In the 17 years since the European Union (EU) first formulated common standards to be applied in arms export decision making, there has been a rapid expansion in the EU's role as a coordinator and generator of policy in an area that was previously the exclusive domain of national governments. Most relevant to this change has been the EU Code of Conduct on Arms Exports (EU Code of Conduct), which was adopted by the Council of the EU in June 1998 and will celebrate its 10th anniversary in June 2008. The Code takes the form of a Council declaration— it contains political commitments but is not legally binding. Under the Code, EU member states commit themselves to set 'high common standards which should be regarded as the minimum for the management of, and restraint in, conventional arms transfers' and 'to reinforce cooperation and to promote convergence in the field of conventional arms exports' within the framework of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). It lists eight criteria that member states agree to take into account when assessing applications for arms export licences. More importantly, the Code outlines reporting procedures and consultation mechanisms intended to ensure consistent interpretation of the criteria.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Spain, and Netherlands

2191. North Caucasus Weekly - - Volume IX, Issue 48

Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: IN THIS ISSUE: Rights Activists: Religious Repression Feeds Dagestan's Insurgency New Ingush Rights Council Flooded with Complaints Spain Agrees toExtradite Former Rebel Commander Briefs Chechen Interior Minister Tries to Play Down the InsurgencyBy Mairbek Vatchagaev New Tensions Surface in Ossetian-Ingush RelationsBy Valery Dzutsev.
Topic:: Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

2192. Thinking Strategically About Russia

Author:: Dmitri V. Trenin
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: U.S.–Russian relations matter again. To succeed where Bush has failed, Obama needs to approach Russia strategically: enhancing cooperation where possible, mitigating conflict where necessary. To prevent new conflict and receive Moscow's cooperation, Washington needs to deal seriously with Russian concerns. Leave Russia's domestic politics to the Russians. To keep Ukraine whole and free, the EU integration way is the way. NATO has reached the safe limits of eastward expansion. To protect against missile threats, a pan-European TMD system—which includes Russia—is the best option. On Iran and Afghanistan, Russia should be treated as an equal partner
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, Washington, Ukraine, and Moscow

2193. Russian–American Security Relations After Georgia

Author:: Rose Gottemoeller
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Washington and Moscow's failure to develop a working relationship could lead to a dangerous crisis—perhaps even a nuclear one. There is an immediate need to grab onto the superstructure of the relationship through the STA RT and CFE treaties, both of which require urgent action. A new architecture should follow that to broaden the relationship, including the creation of a new future for security in Europe. Both capitals need to devise a strategy as well as a mechanism to manage the relationship and prevent future crises. A commission of past presidents—U.S. and Russian—would have the authority to confront these monumental tasks.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, America, Europe, Washington, Eastern Europe, Moscow, and Georgia

2194. The establishment, operability and democratic functionality of the Kosovo Security Force

Author:: Ramadan Qehaja, Haxhi Ferati, Kosum Kosumi, and Florian Qehaja
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The idea for writing this policy paper came up as a result of the project drafted by the KCSS experts for “Democratic Control of the Security Institutions”. The initial stage of this project foresaw professional policy paper for “establishment, operability and democratic functionality of the Kosovo Security Force”. The work done for this document would not be finished without the support of partners and donators. First of all, it is worthwhile mentioning the initial support of Kosovo Foundation for Open Society. In particular we would like to thank “Universum” University for allowing space (office) for KCSS purposes.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

2195. Emergency State and Civil Protection in the Republic of Kosovo

Author:: Florian Qehaja
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Matters of emergency management present one of the most complex and very sensitive segments of every society. Every country gives a priority to the emergency readiness because preventive measure would minimize natural disasters which could threaten the state. The concept of civil protection mainly belongs to the internal affairs of states1 nevertheless it is a flaw to say that this is a responsibility of exclusively one state. Natural disasters can occur not only within one state- they can have regional and wider repercussions. Truly, the matters of civil protection are already becoming more of international character.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Protection, and Emergencies
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

2196. Assessment of the Kosovo Security Council role in the security sector

Author:: Florian Qehaja
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Kosovo Security Council (KSC) is undoubtedly one of the main pillars of security sector. The Constitution of Republic of Kosovo provides it with the key authority for policy making and advising on security issues. It is worth of noting that other countries have also foreseen Security Council in their legislation, whereby it is called “Council of National Security” or “National Security Council” while in Kosovo, in compliance with the UN Envoy, President Ahtisaari’s Comprehensive Settlement Plan on Status Resolution,1 it is described as Kosovo Security Council.
Topic:: Security, Institutions, and Assessment
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

2197. Reciprocity or the Higher Ground? The Treatment of Ethnic Russians in Georgia After the "Spy Scandal" of 2006

Author:: David Szakonyi
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:: Upon comparison of the treatment of one another‟s ethnic community following the spy scandal,‟ clear differences emerge between Russia‟s and Georgia‟s approaches to the issue. In contrast to the full-fledged targeting and expulsion of both legal and illegal residents on the part of Russia, Georgian officials, media outlets, and citizens responded admirably to the tenuous situation, with few reported incidents of discrimination. However, anti-Russian sentiments, at least at the elite political level, are still very much present among Georgian society, and the consequences of the agitated, negative rhetoric towards Russia by several Georgian leaders could lead to an environment of increased animosity towards Russian speakers. Without specific steps taken by the Georgian government, media outlets, and society as a whole to reduce anti-Russian sentiment, there is a danger of further incensed political relations negatively affecting interpersonal relations between the ethnic Russian minority and the Georgian majority.
Topic:: Intelligence, Minorities, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Georgia

2198. Ethnic Data Collection: The Case of the Civil Service in Eastern Europe

Author:: Oleh Protsyk and Konstantin Sachariew
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:: Representative bureaucracies are an important indicator of ethnically inclusive societies. Minority group support for the policies and institutions of a state is often directly linked to the extent to which these groups are being represented, not only in politics but also in the state apparatus. A bureaucracy that reflects the cultural and ethnic diversity of the population is also likely to be more responsive to the needs and aspirations of minority groups in multiethnic societies. A substantial body of academic research in this area suggests that there is significant empirical support for this responsiveness thesis. The normative appeal of the representative bureaucracy concept has yet to be translated across most of Eastern Europe into specific policies designed to make the actual practice of civil service recruitment and promotion more open to minorities. In fact, what is often found by ECMI and other organizations working on various aspects of minority participation in public life is a lack of even basic systematic data on levels of minority inclusion. The lack of this type of data is often attributed to national legal provisions regulating personal data collection. In particular, ECMI research on minorities in public bureaucracy was hindered by the existence of numerous limitations on possibilities for collecting primary data or on obtaining access to the data already available. A similar problem has arisen in relation to ECMI research on socioeconomic exclusion of minorities, for which it has been difficult to obtain minority-related data on employment, education and health services. This paper begins by outlining the importance of minority civil service inclusion in the general discussion of minority participation in public life, so as to demonstrate the salience of the issue in recent academic and policy discussions of minority issues in the European context. It then turns to an analysis of how legal norms and policies in the areof bureaucratic recruitment and promotion affect the availability of data on minority representation in civil service. Finally, this paper will discuss the options and strategies available to the researcher in situations of limited availability/poor quality of official data. It briefly examines the utility of approaches such as the analysis of employment rosters using algorithms based on last names, snowball sampling techniques, interviewing, and requesting data from ethnic minority organizations.
Topic:: Civil Society, Ethnicity, Bureaucracy, Data, and Civil Servants
Political Geography:: Europe

2199. Language Loss and the Ethnic Identity of Minorities

Author:: Ulrike Schmidt
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:: With the enlargement of the European Union, language, as a crucial element of ethnic identity, has recently again advanced to the focus of the European political and social stage. In the European tradition, language has become a major marker of belonging to a particular ethnic or national group. Recent conflicts in South Eastern Europe, but also along regional borders in Western Europe - as in Catalunya or Corsica - have often revolved around issues of language. These conflicts have demonstrated that the reality in most European countries differs from the traditional image of linguistically homogeneous states and is further questioned by the demand for recognition by regional speakers who have become ethnic or regional minorities in this nation-state system.
Topic:: Minorities, Ethnicity, Language, and Identity
Political Geography:: Europe

2200. Economic Exclusion of Ethnic Minorities: On the Importance of Concept Specification

Author:: Tim Dertwinkel
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:: This issue brief is a plea for a more systematic investigation into the concept of economic exclusion of ethnic minorities.1 What does “economic exclusion” exactly mean? How does it relate to the broader and more established phenomenon of social exclusion? Is economicexclusion, especially when applied to historical ethnic minorities, worthwhile studying in its ownright, or is it just a fashionable reframing of “older” development concepts such as poverty or inequality? It is exactly these questions that this issue brief attempts to shed some light on. I argue that such an exercise is overdue mainly for the two following reasons: first, there is a recent abundance in the use of the term “economic exclusion”, prominently taken up and further promoted by the work of minority rights related institutions, NGOs and practitioners. Second, and in sharp contrast to fast emerging policy programs and legal frameworks, theoretical orconceptual clarifications of economic exclusion - as well as empirical results on factors promoting or mitigating exclusion - are rare. The main argument put forward here is that so far, working definitions of economic exclusion are broad and extensive, and tend to vary according to institution. No standard definition of economic exclusion exists so far. This lack of conceptualspecification makes it almost impossible for empirical work to catch up with recent normative developments
Topic:: Economics, Minorities, Ethnicity, and Exclusion
Political Geography:: Europe

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS