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101. Kenya’s Foreign Policy Towards Europe and Estonia

Author:
Stephen Kimoita
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Kenya’s foreign policy towards Europe is largely motivated by the need to promote its national interests through trade and investment, as reflected in its 2014 Foreign Policy document (revised 2024). This paper explores Kenya’s relations with Europe and Estonia in areas of security, multilateralism, education, culture, and the diaspora. Despite having already achieved a close partnership, there is room for growth in Europe-Kenya relations. To maximise foreign policy gains, Kenya should fully leverage existing bilateral and multilateral frameworks for cooperation. Meanwhile, Europe needs to customise its exports to Kenya’s needs and pursue well-targeted trade and investment opportunities in areas like manufacturing.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Multilateralism, Investment, Manufacturing, and Trade
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Europe, and Estonia

102. EU Defence Series: Strengthening the Industry

Author:
Marianne Paire
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
With the March 2022 Strategic Compass, the EU “set out a common strategic vision and concrete objectives for strengthening the EU's security and defence policy by 2030.” [1] The Compass noted the deterioration in the strategic environment as a result of the return of war to Europe, increased competition between powers, the complexity of threats to the continent's security, and the undermining of the principles of the international order. In defence, the member states (MS) recognised the need to invest “more and better in innovative capabilities and technologies, fill strategic gaps, and reduce technological and industrial dependencies.” [2] This brief considers the EU’s progress in the defence industrial domain.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Defense Industry, and International Order
Political Geography:
Europe

103. The EU’s Dilemmas in the Black Sea Region: Security and Enlargement

Author:
Koen Claessen
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The Black Sea region has gained renewed strategic importance for the European Union following Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As an area of considerable economic and geopolitical significance, as well as a focal point for potential future EU enlargement, its stability is now an urgent concern for European policymakers. Russia’s sustained efforts to undermine security in the Black Sea necessitate a coherent EU vision, moving beyond the fragmented scope of earlier initiatives such as the Black Sea Synergy and aspects of the Eastern Partnership.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Black Sea

104. Why the ‘Reverse Nixon’ Strategy Will Fail: The Illusion of Decoupling

Author:
Sanshiro Hosaka
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The second Trump administration has undertaken a peace deal with Russia. This policy may not simply reflect Donald Trump’s personal affinity for Moscow and deal-making style but is also likely informed by a certain strategic perception of the US-China-Russia triangle.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Strategic Interests, and Decoupling
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

105. EU Defence Series: PESCO Must Step Up

Author:
Maxime Cordet
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), established by the Treaty of Lisbon in 2007, was intended to create a framework for the most willing and able Member States (MS) to cooperate on defence within the EU. It was activated by 23 of them in 2017. Today, all MS except Malta participate. This brief examines PESCO’s contribution to the EU’s growing defence ambitions and sets out the challenges ahead.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO)
Political Geography:
Europe

106. Returning Ukrainians Home: Mission Possible?

Author:
Mykola Nazarov
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In 2025, about 6.9 million Ukrainians remain abroad due to the war, while migration dynamics in Ukraine in the fourth year of the war are still negative. Returning people from abroad is a challenging task for the authorities and a crucial issue for society. To motivate people to repatriate, it is necessary to create both effective institutional mechanisms and a favourable psychological atmosphere. Post-war Ukraine will be confronted with all the negative consequences of depopulation, such as shortages in the labour market and an increasing tax burden on businesses. Regardless of how Ukrainian citizens come back, the state will need to attract significant numbers of labour migrants, which will, in turn, pose new integration challenges. The government’s policy framework to encourage the return of Ukrainians home is a work in progress, with only several strategic documents already developed. A ministry of national unity has been tasked with coordinating the efforts of other government agencies and designing a unified approach to repatriation policy. It is likely that the end of the hot phase of the war will become a trigger for the start of intensive reconstruction in Ukraine and the implementation of the strategy to bring Ukrainians home.
Topic:
Civil Society, Migration, Refugees, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

107. EU Defence Series: Military Mobility A Critical Enabler

Author:
Mihai Sebastian Chihaia
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The first months of 2025 witnessed monumental changes for European security. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has created a huge degree of uncertainty, and it is increasingly likely that Europe will need to prepare for much less American commitment to its security and defence. There are serious questions about how large the impact on the EU and NATO will be, the future of NATO’s Article 5, and what the US reaction will be if a NATO Ally is attacked. In any scenario, one of the most important enablers of Europe’s defence is the ability to move troops and equipment swiftly across the continent and ensure that reinforcements can arrive quickly in case of conflict. This brief maps developments at the EU level to enhance military mobility and highlights what is still needed to overcome challenges and bottlenecks.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Military Affairs, European Union, and Mobility
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

108. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Prospects for an American Peace

Author:
Laurynas Jonavičius
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on, international attention has turned toward the prospect of a negotiated settlement, with a US-backed framework among the most prominent initiatives. Reports suggest this might include a ceasefire, security guarantees for Ukraine, tacit recognition of Russia’s existing territorial control, and a long-term halt to Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. On the surface, these terms may appear pragmatic, offering a potential off-ramp from a costly and protracted conflict. However, below this is a complex dilemma, shaped by structural asymmetry, political mistrust, and fundamentally divergent national priorities.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Armed Conflict, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

109. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Ukraine’s Strategy And Western Military Assistance

Author:
Hennadiy Maksak
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
International partners have provided significant military assistance to Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. The temporary suspension of critical US military assistance in early 2025 raised concerns about Ukraine’s strategy to fend off Russia. While it is difficult to predict how the battlefield will unfold in 2025, strong ties with Western partners will be crucial to continue a war of attrition against an overwhelming enemy.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

110. EU Defence Series: The White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030

Author:
Marianne Paire
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The Commission presented its White Paper on defence on 19 March at a press conference with the Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas. [1] This document is part of a dynamic that has been at work since the outburst of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, namely the greater priority given to defence within the EU.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, and Readiness
Political Geography:
Europe

111. More Than a Systemic Rival: China as a Security Challenge for the EU

Author:
Tauno Tõhk
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The EU's ties with China rank just behind its transatlantic ones in significance. With China being a major trading partner, the focus has long been on economic opportunities. In recent years, there has been a shift in how the EU frames its relationship with China. Yet, despite increasing emphasis on systemic rivalry and economic security, security risks remain underrepresented in EU China policy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

112. NATO's New Ambitions for Space

Author:
Béatrice Hainaut
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Ahead of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a devastating cyber attack targets Ukrainian army communications, exposing Western dependence and vulnerability to space technologies, and calling NATO's defensive posture into question. The longevity of the organization, which celebrates its 75th anniversary in 2024, is partly due to its ability to adapt to the international context. The war in Ukraine has undoubtedly strengthened its legitimacy and attractiveness. The massive use of space applications in Ukraine raises the question of the role of the Atlantic Alliance in providing space data and services to its member states: it does not have its own space capabilities, but its deterrence posture includes space. By equipping itself with a solid documentary corpus, space-focused centers, and access to national capabilities, the Alliance seeks to implement its vision of space as a theater of operations. This theater of operations aims at the integration and interoperability of the space assets of the various member states. For now, these are primarily American capabilities. NATO's space ambition then poses to the states the question of mobilizing financial and human resources. Moreover, deeper cooperation between NATO and the EU could presumably allow for the pooling of efforts.
Topic:
NATO, Science and Technology, European Union, Cybersecurity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, and Space

113. The inflation surge in Europe

Author:
Patrick Honohan
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
For most of the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, undershooting rather than overshooting had been the main inflation problem of the European Central Bank (ECB). During 2020, consumer prices in the euro area were falling; by the end of that year, average inflation since the introduction of the euro two decades earlier stood at only 1.6 percent per year. Things began to snowball in 2021. The 12-month inflation rate steadily accelerated. It reached double digits in the final quarter of 2022—more than twice the level it had ever reached since the euro’s introduction in 1999. Four striking features emerge from a review of the unexpected surge in European inflation since 2021: (1) The ECB’s monetary policy response lagged behind that of the US Federal Reserve, reflecting the more gradual evolution of inflation in the euro area and its distinct pattern of causes; (2) the range of inflation rates across different euro area countries has been unprecedented. This largely reflects the differential impact of war-related energy shocks (especially for natural gas piped from Russia) as well as the differential fiscal response by national governments partially insulating consumers from these shocks; (3) not all households were net losers from the inflation, with some benefiting from the fact that inflation reduced the real value of their indebtedness; and (4) the speed with which inflation was returning toward target during 2023 prompted concerns that the ECB’s monetary tightening might have been pushed too far, prolonging the output slowdown.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, European Union, Inflation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

114. Who’s a national security risk? The changing transatlantic geopolitics of data transfers

Author:
Kenneth Propp
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The geopolitics of transatlantic data transfers have been unvarying for the past decade. European governments criticize the US National Security Agency (NSA) for exploiting personal data moving from Europe to the United States for commercial reasons. The US government responds, through a series of arrangements with the European Union, by providing assurances that NSA collection is not disproportionate, and that Europeans have legal avenues if they believe their data has been illegally used. Although the arrangements have not proven legally stable, on the whole they have sufficed to keep data flowing via subsea cables under the Atlantic Ocean. Now the locus of national security concerns about international data transfers has shifted from Brussels to Washington. The Biden administration and the US Congress, in a series of bold measures, are moving aggressively to interrupt certain cross-border data flows, notably to China and Russia. The geopolitics of international data flows remain largely unchanged in Europe, however. European data protection authorities have been mostly noncommittal about the prospect of Russian state surveillance collecting Europeans’ personal data. Decisions on whether to transfer European data to Russia and China remain in the hands of individual companies. Will Washington’s new focus on data transfers to authoritarian states have an impact in Europe? Will Europe continue to pay more attention to the surveillance activities of its liberal democratic allies, especially the United States? Is there a prospect of Europe and the United States aligning on the national security risks of transfers to authoritarian countries?
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Economy, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

115. The Gini Trade Index: What Can We Learn from A New Trade Indicator?

Author:
Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief introduces the Gini Trade Index (GTI) as a new trade synthetic key performance indicator capable of capturing the different distribution of trade values across firm characteristics and across countries. The new indicator replicates the well-known features of the traditional Gini Index, a widely used metric for the skewness of several socioeconomic indicators, in particular income inequality. The Policy Brief calculates the Gini Trade Index for all EU member states and contrasts the case of Slovakia and Cyprus, the EU countries situated at the opposite ends of the Gini Trade Index. The paper finds that the GTI has increased over time in most EU countries and offers a tentative range of optimal GTI values. The final section offers several examples of trade policy initiatives that can reduce trade concentration and lead to greater participation of small and medium enterprises in global trade.
Topic:
European Union, Trade, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe, Cyprus, and Slovakia

116. Regulating the Working Conditions of Platform Work: What Can We Learn from EU Member States?

Author:
Oscar Guinea, Elena Sisto, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Policymakers in Estonia, France, Greece, and Spain share the common objective of enhancing the working conditions of platform workers. However, variations in their labour markets, legal frameworks, and political landscapes have led to four distinct approaches in achieving this goal. Predominantly, the Spanish regulation has been geared towards attempting to reclassify platform workers from self-employed to employees. In contrast, the regulatory strategies in France and Greece have focused on retaining the sector within the realm of independent work, while simultaneously improving the working conditions of platform workers. Estonia adopted a broader perspective, emphasising the enhancement of working conditions for all freelancers, not exclusively those categorised as platform workers. This Policy Brief offers a comprehensive evaluation and comparison of the regulatory frameworks governing platform work in four European countries. The comparative analysis draws upon research conducted by the OECD and the World Economic Forum (WEF) on the principles of good regulation. Adapting this research to the context of digital platforms, three key principles for assessing the regulation of working conditions on these platforms were identified: (i) the consistency with the policy objective of improving the working conditions of platform workers; (ii) the feasibility of implementing the regulatory requirements; (iii) the presence of regulatory dialogue and appeal mechanisms. The evaluation of the four countries’ regulations against the three outlined principles offers valuable insights into the regulation of platform work. In Spain, the primary aim of the regulation regarding platform workers was not solely the improvement of working conditions but predominantly the reclassification of platform workers from self-employed to employees. This distinction is crucial, as platform workers highly value the benefits of self-employment, such as access to work, income opportunities, flexibility, and autonomy. Evidence presented in this study suggests that a majority of Spanish delivery workers preferred to maintain their self-employed status, while only about one-third expressed a desire to be classified as employees. Moreover, the Spanish regulation is characterised by a broad formulation of the conditions defining employment for digital delivery workers. This lack of specificity has led to an uncertain application of the regulation, with digital platforms adopting diverse strategies to achieve compliance. Ultimately, the Spanish regulatory framework has been marred by a profound disregard for the interests of, and a notable lack of communication with, those directly impacted by the regulation: the digital platforms and the platform workers. Greece has demonstrated that it is possible to enhance working conditions for platform workers while preserving the advantages of self-employment. The Greek regulation mandates that digital platforms adhere to the same welfare, health, and safety obligations for platform workers as they would for employees. Additionally, Greece has established clear criteria to define the presumption of self-employment for platform workers. This clarity offers legal certainty and enabled platform workers to accurately assess their employment status. Consequently, there has been a notable reduction in court cases regarding the classification of platform workers. France has progressively developed a comprehensive legal framework that has systematically enhanced the rights of platform workers. This development culminated in six pivotal agreements, addressing some of the most challenging aspects of working conditions on digital platforms, such as account deactivation and minimum revenue. These agreements were reached under the auspices of the Autorité des Relations Sociales des Plateformes d’Emploi (ARPE), a public entity instrumental in facilitating effective social dialogue between digital platforms and trade unions. The establishment of clear administrative procedures governing the negotiations within ARPE has been crucial in formulating measures that digital platforms can effectively implement. Estonia’s primary focus is on ensuring adequate working conditions for all freelancers, including platform workers. A considerable number of platform workers in Estonia engage in a contract-for-services (töövõtuleping) with digital platforms. This contract offers a social safety net, including unemployment benefits, sick pay, and healthcare services, while retaining the self-employed status of platform workers. Moreover, this framework provides clarity regarding the rights and responsibilities of both platform workers and digital platforms, facilitating the implementation of a clear and unambiguous regulatory system.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, Regulation, Digital Economy, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe

117. Calling on the EU-US Trade and Technology Council: How to Deliver for the Planet and the Economy

Author:
Oscar Guinea, Vanika Sharma, Philipp Lamprecht, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief proposes the establishment of an agreement on conformity assessment between the EU and the US that covers machinery and electrical equipment. The initiative aims to increase the number of European and US conformity assessment bodies authorized to test and certify EU and US machinery and electrical equipment for exports into each other’s markets, without recognizing the equivalency or otherwise altering the product requirements in regulation, standards, or other normative documents on either side. While this study focuses on the economic effects of an agreement on conformity assessment that includes machinery and electrical equipment, the scope of such an agreement could potentially be extended to several additional product categories, particularly those that are subject to requirements for mandatory third-party conformity assessment in both the EU and the US. The increase in the number of conformity assessment bodies is expected to reduce the costs and the time required to demonstrate conformity. If this policy succeeds as expected in achieving a reduction in trade costs between 2 and 6 percent, US exports to the EU are projected to increase between US$ 11 billion and US$ 32.5 billion while EU exports to the US are estimated to grow by between US$ 13.8 billion and US$ 42.2 billion. In percentage terms, US firms are anticipated to experience a larger increase in exports of machinery and electrical equipment than their EU counterparts. The increase in trade flows as a result of this agreement is estimated to be larger than the rise in trade flows achieved in other Free Trade Agreements signed by the EU or the US. Moreover, as an increasing number of EU regulations begin to mandate third-party conformity assessment, US firms will increasingly benefit from this agreement when exporting to the EU. Given China’s status as the largest supplier of machinery and electrical equipment to both the EU and the US, the implementation of an EU-US agreement on conformity assessment would not only improve conditions for transatlantic trade but also lead to reduced trade dependence for the EU and the US on China. The reduction in trade costs between the EU and the US on machinery and electrical equipment due to the agreement could lower Chinese exports to the EU and the US by between US$ 6.5 billion and US$ 19.4 billion. Importantly, machinery and electrical equipment are crucial inputs for some of the key technologies in which the EU and the US Administrations have identified trade dependencies on China. However, in contrast with other policies aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese imports, an agreement on conformity assessment for machinery and electrical equipment will not require public subsidies or impose any financial burden on taxpayers. This agreement also has the potential to benefit the environment. Machinery and electrical equipment are essential inputs for green technologies. Therefore, a reduction in the cost and time of conformity assessment in these industries will accelerate the adoption of green technologies. An agreement on conformity assessment between the EU and the US covering green goods and clean technologies could increase transatlantic exports between US$ 3.1 billion and US$ 9.2 billion. While this increase in exports is significant, broadening the scope of the agreement to include the entirety of machinery and electrical equipment, rather than just a subset, is projected to lead to trade effects eight times larger. Moreover, as green technologies rapidly evolve, an agreement on conformity assessment has the potential to serve as a dynamic instrument that evolves to accommodate future regulatory and economic developments on climate and the environment on both sides of the Atlantic.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

118. Openness as Strength: The Win-Win in EU-US Digital Services Trade

Author:
Matthias Bauer, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The discourse surrounding the EU’s supposed over-reliance on digital services imports from non-EU countries, particularly the US, has been a recurrent topic among some political circles. However, this viewpoint tends to oversimplify and misrepresent the nuanced and complex reality of the EU’s status within the global Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector and digitally enabled trade. A thorough analysis of trade data and trends clearly illustrates that the EU’s engagement with foreign (non-EU) digital services, notably from the US, represents a strategic economic advantage, bolstering Europe’s competitiveness and fostering productivity growth. Below we underline the critical importance of openness to foreign innovation and technology diffusion for the EU’s economic future.
Topic:
European Union, Digital Economy, Strategic Competition, Imports, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

119. ICT Beyond Borders: The Integral Role of US Tech in Europe’s Digital Economy

Author:
Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Contrary to political assertions about the vulnerability of digital services provided by non-EU companies, the strong presence and sunk costs associated with US tech companies’ investments in data centres, skilled workforce development, and research facilities in Europe act as significant barriers to exit, highlighting the inherent symbiosis between US tech investments and Europe’s digital and non-digital sectors. These investments underscore a mutual inter-dependency that strengthens European economies, making the notion of “sudden cessation” of digital services by US companies implausible. Corporate data show a significant investment gap of approximately USD 1.36 trillion between US and EU ICT companies, attributing a competitive edge to US firms due to their heavy investment in ICT, cloud solutions, and R&D. Forecasted increases in ICT investments by US corporations outline a benchmark beyond reach for EU businesses. The notion of EU firms aligning with this growth path is rather fantastical, as it would call for immense government investment, ultimately draining financial resources from essential public services, such as healthcare, housing, and environmental policies. Substantial ICT investments across EU Member States together with a long-term commitment to the European market present an opportunity for the EU to leverage US continuous technological advancements, underscoring the potential for transatlantic collaboration to drive the EU’s digital transformation and innovation. EU-US partnerships not only fuel the EU’s digital transformation but also align with shared political values, reinforcing the significance of transatlantic collaboration in shaping a competitive and innovative digital future.
Topic:
Communications, European Union, Digital Economy, Investment, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

120. Time to Rethink Export Controls for Strengthened US-EU Cooperation and Global Trade Rules

Author:
Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The escalation of broad export controls by the US, under the guise of national security and the aim to curb technological transfers to potential adversaries,[1] marks a new epoch of bureaucratic oversight. The US push for broad export controls also underscores a critical juncture in US-EU relations and global trade rules. Broad export restrictions not only challenge the very foundation of free trade but also contribute to the erosion of Western technology leadership.[2] Unilateral export controls may start strong but eventually lose effectiveness and become counterproductive,[3] pushing non-US companies, particularly in the semiconductor sector, to find alternatives to US components.
Topic:
International Cooperation, European Union, Regulation, Exports, Trade, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

121. Trading Up: An EU Trade Policy for Better Market Access and Resilient Sourcing

Author:
Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, Philipp Lamprecht, Oscar du Roy, Elena Sisto, and Renata Zilli
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Europe’s competitiveness could be substantially improved by a trade policy that facilitates more trade and other forms of cross-border exchange. The evidence is clear: the EU trades less with the rest of the world than would be expected given the size of its economy. With 85 percent of global growth happening outside of the EU – and with an increasing share of all new technologies, innovations, patents, human capital, and R&D expenditure emerging in other parts of the world than Europe – the EU needs to find better ways to integrate with international markets. It is now becoming urgent for the EU to revive its international trade policy. Europe’s increasing detachment from global markets lead to two major economic concerns: deteriorating market access and less capability to build economic resilience. Market access can be defined as an export challenge, as EU firms face increasing trade barriers that hinder their ability to sell products and services abroad. These barriers ultimately limit the EU’s ability to scale up production, specialise, and increase R&D spending. Economic resilience is an import challenge. To become more resilient, the EU must diversify its sources of supply, particularly for critical raw materials, and secure a stable and frictionless access to foreign high-end goods, services, and technologies. The next five years present a critical opportunity for the EU to address the challenges limiting the contribution of international trade to EU’s competitiveness. This Policy Brief outlines seven trade policy recommendations that tackle the lack of market access and address the need for economic resilience. These policy recommendations are there for the EU to take: they are realistic and achievable. The EU has the power to make these seven policy recommendations a reality.
Topic:
Markets, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Trade, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Europe

122. Keeping Up with the US: Why Europe’s Productivity Is Falling Behind

Author:
Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The European Union stands at a crossroads. For decades, the EU’s productivity growth has consistently lagged the United States, leading to slower growth in living standards and decline in global economic power. While short-term factors like the strong US fiscal expansion have widened the gap in nominal GDP growth in recent years, the fact is that Europe has trailed the US economic development for several decades and the root of the problem lies in deeper structural issues within the European economy. Four major forces fuel this productivity divide. Firstly, the EU’s investment in research and development (R&D) pales in comparison to the U.S., leading to fewer patents and a slower pace of technology-fuelled innovation. Secondly, Europe trails America in the stock and growth of intangible capital investments, which are crucial for adopting and diffusing new technologies that drive productivity. Thirdly, the EU market exhibits slower business creation and destruction compared to the US. This rigidity hinders the flow of resources towards the most productive firms. Lastly, despite boasting higher levels of trade openness, the EU attracts less Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) than the US, curbing its access to cutting-edge global technologies and expertise. To close the gap, European policymakers should implement a comprehensive strategy for faster productivity growth. The first step is turning up the dial on R&D spending, targeting 4-5 percent of GDP by 2040. Next, Europe should prioritise investments in intangible assets and lay down the digital infrastructure that will underpin future growth. Revitalising the single market is also crucial: reducing internal and external market barriers for services, the primary vehicle for trading intangible assets. Moreover, the EU should foster a market environment that encourages entrepreneurship and facilitate the entry and exit of firms so resources cascade towards the most productive sectors. By harnessing the strengths of the single market and implementing these recommendations, European policymakers can propel the EU towards a more competitive and prosperous future.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Productivity, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

123. Trade in the Great Sea: A Brief State of Play of EU-Southern Neighbourhood Trade Relations

Author:
Jan A. Micallef
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The Mediterranean is a vibrant economic geography that could grow significantly. This paper reviews the trade relations between the EU and Southern Neighbourhood Countries (SNCs) – their history and the current status of the bilateral trade agreements. While these agreements have many similarities, there are also some differences in scale and scope. The paper also looks at the development of trade between the EU and SNCs and concludes that developments have generally been positive.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

124. Reinventing Europe’s Single Market: A Way Forward to Align Ideals and Action

Author:
Matthias Bauer, Dyuti Pandya, Vanika Sharma, and Elena Sisto
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
It is essential for EU institutions and Member State governments to shift their focus from the abstract concept of the “Single Market” to the concrete objective of “legal harmonisation in the EU.” This transition represents a strategic realignment towards more pragmatic policymaking. Adopting a 28th regime to address national regulation discrepancies would align with this goal and enhance the Single Market’s effectiveness in promoting economic growth and competitiveness. Given the EU’s ongoing loss of relative global economic clout, it is crucial to establish an ambitious timeline for implementing the most critical Single Market reforms. The Letta Report serves as a wake-up call to revitalise the EU’s Single Market, emphasising the need for decisive action. Its vision largely hinges on legal harmonisation within Europe, building on early efforts to liberalise markets and establish a truly integrated European market. Despite efforts, “integration fatigue” remains a significant challenge due to legal fragmentation across European economies. Previous reports, from the Cecchini Report in 1992 to the Europe 2020 Strategy, have highlighted persistent issues like regulatory divergences and declining political support for market integration. Despite numerous proposals, progress has been limited, and many challenges persist or have worsened (see Section 2). An analysis of EU reports reveals a shift in policy priorities over time. Initially, there was a strong focus on liberalisation and market opening, with less attention given to state aid and industrial policymaking. The Letta Report highlights the importance of regulatory convergence and harmonisation, reflecting a deeper understanding and recognition of the drivers of EU competitiveness. The rise of nationalism and a shift towards “Strategic Autonomy” within the EU have hindered crucial market reforms. This highlights the importance of aligning laws across Member States to strengthen and reinforce EU’s economic resilience and international competitiveness (see Section 3). EU institutions and Member State governments should set specific goals for “legal harmonisation in the EU.” This shift would address real challenges faced by businesses and citizens, and build political will for necessary reforms. Prioritising legal harmonisation would enhance internal cohesion and align national laws with Union-wide goals. An actionable roadmap – potentially with a 2028 deadline – is crucial to address the substantial gap between ambitious EU strategies and Europe’s economic realities. (see Section 4). Implementing sector-specific and horizontal policies in a new regulatory regime would improve cross-border operations and competitiveness. The Letta Report advocates for a European Code of Business Law to establish a unified regulatory framework, introducing a 28th legal regime to address national regulation discrepancies. Extending this regime to include tax and labour market policies would significantly enhance cross-border operations. The EU and Member State governments can eliminate substantial internal barriers by prioritising key horizontal policies affecting all businesses, such as fragmented tax laws, labour market policies, and social security systems. Simplifying and harmonising these policies on the basis of the facilitation of four freedoms is crucial for unlocking the Single Market’s potential for businesses and workers, boosting the EU’s global competitiveness. Allowing coalitions of willing countries to advance in certain areas of legal integration provides a viable solution to the long-standing Single Market “fatigue”. By enabling smaller groups of Member States to pursue integration in specific areas, the EU can bypass the constraints imposed by rigid voting requirements and achieve greater agility, accountability, and acceptance in EU law-making. This approach not only fosters flexibility but also upholds the fundamental principles and objectives of the EU. To ensure the integrity of the EU legal order and prevent unjustified barriers or discrimination against non-participating members, it is essential to establish safeguards and oversight mechanisms. These measures would maintain cohesion within the Union while allowing for progressive legal integration among willing Member States.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Digital Economy, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

125. Two Years at the Forefront: Exploring the needs and experiences of women-led, women’s rights and LGBTQIA+ led organizations two years into the Ukraine humanitarian response

Author:
Charlotte Greener
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Two years on from the escalation of the war in Ukraine, Oxfam spoke with a number of people leading the work of local and national women-led organisations (WLOs), women’s rights organisations (WROs), LGBTQIA+ led organizations, and other local non-governmental organizations (NGOs) addressing the needs of women, girls and gender minorities in Poland and Ukraine. We wanted to understand how the humanitarian crisis has impacted them, personally and as organizations, and their needs and priorities for the future. At the beginning of the humanitarian crisis following the escalation of the war in Ukraine, local WLOs, WROs and LGBTQIA+ led organizations were some of the first on the ground responding to their communities’ needs, both within Ukraine and in neighboring countries, and two years on, they are still at the forefront of providing assistance. The conversations that we had with these organisations highlighted that they are facing key challenges in continuing to sustain their vital role in responding to humanitarian needs; the need for greater investment in their voice and agency as decision-makers in the humanitarian response; and the need for flexible support to these organisations that allows them to carry out their important work across all stages of the response to the humanitarian crisis.
Topic:
Human Rights, Women, Refugees, LGBT+, Humanitarian Crisis, Civil Society Organizations, Gender, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

126. The changing dynamics of European electricity markets and the supply-demand mismatch risk

Author:
Conall Heussaff and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Meeting Europe’s 2030 climate targets will require massive clean-electricity investment. To facilitate these investments, state-backed de-risking schemes such as contracts for difference (CfDs) are needed. Their role in supporting renewables has been consolidated by the European Union’s recently agreed electricity market design reform. Under such state-backed schemes, the distribution of costs between the market and the state will depend on the balance of supply and demand. Lower demand will decrease spot-market prices, reducing market costs but increasing the cost to CfD-issuing states. If electrification of European energy demand does not keep pace with the electricity supply expansion, tens of billions of euros annually could be channelled through state contracts, generating costs that must ultimately be recovered from consumers. A cost-efficient, managed transition will require European coordination of electricity supply, demand and network investments. Clean electricity supply and demand should be synchronised through a combination of state interventions and market mechanisms. Undersupply of clean power will mean a failure to meet climate targets, but oversupply can be costly too. To manage the costs of renewable de-risking schemes and to accelerate energy-system decarbonisation, flexible electricity systems should be promoted, policies to encourage electrification could be implemented and cost-recovery arising from state-backed renewable support schemes should be fair.
Topic:
Climate Change, Markets, Electricity, Energy, and Supply and Demand
Political Geography:
Europe

127. Overcome divisions and confront threats: Memo to the Presidents of the European Commission, Council and Parliament

Author:
Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
In the last five years, the European Union managed to find its way through a series of major shocks, including the pandemic and the 2022 surge in energy prices. The response was in many ways remarkable, including unprecedented EU borrowing to fund the NextGenerationEU economic recovery programme and a coordinated reduction in energy demand. However, these crises have left the EU in a bruised state. The pandemic recession and energy-support measures have squeezed fiscal space. Higher energy prices have persisted and EU industrial competitiveness has been eroded. The productivity and per-capita income gap with the United States has widened. Meanwhile, the world around the EU has become more threatening and fragmented. The military situation in Ukraine remains precarious. China has become both more authoritarian and more assertive. The US shift toward protectionism has become entrenched. There is less consensus for measures to combat climate change. In the face of all this, the challenges confronting you are substantial. In the next five years, you must continue to support Ukraine while implementing measures to reinvigorate EU growth, meet the 2030 climate targets and lay the ground for meeting the 2040 goals, and secure faster emissions reductions beyond the EU’s borders. Social cohesion needs to be restored to head off threats to the EU model. More needs to be done to improve EU external security. Promoting growth and enhancing cohesion will entail further deepening of the single market in areas with the highest growth impact, doing more to support innovation and defending competition, openness and multilateralism. Safeguarding the European Green Deal means boosting green industrialisation and fair burden-sharing, while scaling up international climate finance. Strengthening security requires continued support for Ukraine and the addressing of economic security risks. Underpinning all of this, a serious effort must be made to improve EU governance – and it must be done without creating further division.
Topic:
Security, European Union, European Parliament, European Commission, Energy, Regional Politics, Competition, European Council, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Europe

128. How to finance the European Union’s building decarbonisation plan

Author:
Ugnė Keliauskaitė, Ben McWilliams, Giovanni Sgaravatti, and Simone Tagliapietra
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
By 2030, the European Union must reduce emissions from the heating and cooling of buildings – responsible for 13 percent of EU emissions – by the equivalent of the annual emissions of Slovakia. This requires a near tripling of the current decarbonisation rate. But the time gap between high upfront costs and long-term payback from renovation works deter consumers from investing in energy renovation. To address these challenges, the EU has introduced a policy toolkit that includes strengthened price signals against fossil-fuel heating through emissions trading, and setting energy-consumption reduction targets in the Energy Performance Building Directive (EPBD). EU countries must take the EPBD targets seriously and implement policies to accelerate building retrofits and the adoption of clean heating. If they don’t, there is a risk that EU climate targets will not be met, and the costs for households of subjecting domestic heating to emissions trading could be almost twice the higher costs seen during the 2022 energy crisis. We estimate that achieving the EPBD’s energy savings targets requires filling an investment gap of about €150 billion per year up to 2030. This is a daunting but feasible goal. By leveraging energy savings from electrification and retrofitting to reduce renovation costs, the investment gap could be more than halved. Additionally, effective use of EU funds and emissions trading revenues will further shrink the gap. A mix of grants, preferential loans and obligations is needed, as no single policy will speed up energy renovations. Prioritising grants for the worst-performing buildings, often occupied by vulnerable consumers, will yield climate benefits and benefits in terms of improved air quality, health, productivity, energy security and lower future government outlays to alleviate energy poverty. Traditional public subsidies have not successfully engaged the banking sector, which now must help to foster private-public financing mechanisms. Countries also need to adjust relative energy prices for heating through taxation and subsidies, and expand one-stop-shops to streamline the renovation process for consumers.
Topic:
European Union, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

129. Re-energising Europe’s global green reach

Author:
Giovanni Sgaravatti, Simone Tagliapietra, and Cecilia Trasi
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The goals of decarbonisation, competitiveness and strategic autonomy will underpin the implementation of the European Green Deal during the 2024-2029 European Union institutional cycle. To strike the right balance between these sometimes conflicting objectives, EU policymakers should focus on both domestic and international aspects of the Green Deal. Domestically, they must ensure implementation of the agreed climate plan, avoiding inaction or delay. Internationally, they must establish a new green-diplomacy and partnerships strategy, which will support global decarbonisation while addressing competitiveness and strategic autonomy concerns. The current EU approach to green diplomacy is uncoordinated, lacking a clear strategy and appropriate resources. Given the EU’s limited share of annual global emissions, supporting decarbonisation abroad is fundamental to meet the global net-zero emissions goal. The EU’s green diplomacy and partnerships need to be strengthened and expanded in a pragmatic and coherent manner. The main priorities include focusing on the implementation of international emissions reduction pledges, a new diplomatic push for carbon pricing and international green taxation, the creation of streamlined partnerships for green industrialisation with major partner countries and the promotion of new global trade and climate agreements. To succeed in these, a revision of the current governance of EU global green action will be required.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Partnerships, Carbon Emissions, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

130. The implications of the European Union’s new fiscal rules

Author:
Zsolt Darvas, Lennard Welslau, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
European Union countries are required by the EU Treaty to keep their budget deficits within 3 percent of GDP, and their public debt within 60 percent of GDP. A new framework to enforce these rules is based on country-specific debt sustainability analyses (DSA) and uses a single indicator, a measure of public expenditure, as the annual fiscal policy target. These changes are welcome. To assess the sustainability of public finances, it is much better to focus on the likely evolution of the debt path than to rely on simple numerical rules. Public expenditures net of changes to tax policy are a far better target for fiscal policy than the deficit, since they are under the control of the government and cannot give rise to pro-cyclical fiscal policy (excess spending in good times, fiscal cuts in bad times). These features could increase the framework’s efficiency and improve compliance. However, the new framework also contains numerical safeguards to ensure a minimum pace of debt and deficit reduction. These might overwrite the DSA-based requirements and could undermine the rationale for the new rules and the incentives for compliance. The safeguards could also introduce some pro-cyclicality and, more importantly, could hold back increases in public investment. Our calculations show that the new framework will require ambitious fiscal adjustments from high-debt countries, though less than would have been required by the previous framework. Numerical safeguards will not be a significant constraint in the first application of the framework in 2024, except in the case of Finland. In the next application, in 2028, they imply for France and Italy greater fiscal adjustment than required by the DSA and the 3 percent benchmark. There is ambiguity about the consistency of the new fiscal rules and the largely-unchanged excessive deficit procedure (EDP), and whether proposed reforms and investment will influence the DSA. This could interfere with the successful application of the framework. We recommend that the EDP should require the same adjustment as the DSA, a method- ology should be developed to estimate the quantitative impact of proposed investments and reforms, and the DSA methodology should be revised. In case EU countries’ investment plans on aggregate do not fill the green public-investment gap, we recommend a new EU facility to foster such investments.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Investment, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

131. Three risks that must be addressed for new European Union fiscal rules to succeed

Author:
Lucio Pench
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The debate on the reform of the European Union’s fiscal rules, the Stability and Growth Pact, has largely focused on their design. This nearly exclusive focus has distracted attention from the equally, if not more, important aspects of implementation. The reform, completed in April 2024, left implementation unaddressed, or at least open to very different potential outcomes. In particular, the reform failed to clarify the interplay between EU countries’ medium-term fiscal structural plans (MTFSPs), which embody the new focus on debt sustainability, and the excessive deficit procedure (EDP), which remains the main enforcement tool under the rules. The need for clarification is urgent as several countries are set to enter EDPs for breaching the SGP’s 3 percent of GDP deficit threshold at the same time as their first MTFSPs are endorsed in autumn 2024. There is a risk that the adjustment paths prescribed by EDPs may be at least temporarily less demanding than the debt-sustainability requirements of the MTFSPs would normally imply. Even if consistency between EDPs and MTFSPs is ensured from the start, inconsistencies may arise over time and be resolved in a way that further postpones the necessary adjustment. The main risk is that the 3 percent of GDP deficit might be perceived as the only target that matters for countries that enter EDPs in 2024, as repeated revisions of the MTFSPs undermine the cogency of the debt sustainability requirements. This scenario is likely to materialise if the countries are allowed to exit their EDPs upon bringing their deficits to or below 3 percent of GDP, while being still far from the necessary correction of the debt trajectory. It is important to shape countries’ expectations on the implementation of the upcoming EDPs in a way that is conducive to the immediate internalisation of the debt sustainability constraint implied by the new rules, rather than allowing it to be viewed as a distant objective. This change in expectations could be achieved by clarifying that, even if a country has been placed in an EDP only for breach of the deficit criterion, it should also satisfy the debt criterion for the procedure to be abrogated.
Topic:
Debt, Reform, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Europe

132. How to de-risk: European economic security in a world of interdependence

Author:
Jean Pisani-Ferry, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Pandemic-related supply disruptions, the energy crisis provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and economic coercion by China have put economic security high on the European Union policy agenda. The question is how exactly the EU should ‘de-risk’ its external economic relationships without foregoing the benefits of trade. The standard answer is that it should identify product-level trade dependencies, mainly on the import side, and reduce them, mainly through diversification of suppliers, while otherwise maintaining maximum trade integration. This Policy Brief argues that this answer falls short. First, product-level dependencies cannot be identified reliably even with sophisticated analysis and data. As a result, both ‘missed dependencies’ and ‘false positives’ are inevitable. Second, external shocks and coercion could be propagated through exports, productive assets held abroad and financial channels as much as through imports. The analysis has five main implications Import de-risking should focus on a few product categories for which the costs of supply interruptions would be unquestionably large. This reduces false positives. De-risking and/or buffers to deal with exports and financial coercion require more attention. De-risking must be complemented by raising resilience against all shocks, whatever theirorigin. This requires a deeper and broader European single market. De-risking and resilience must be complemented by deterrence. A sufficiently high probability of chronic trade conflict – or one very large conflict – may justify reducing overall integration with a large trading partner, on both the export andimport sides. EU economic security policies have been right to emphasise the reduction of import dependence on chips and critical raw materials, and the creation of a powerful legal instrument to deter coercion (the Anti-Coercion Instrument). In most other respects, there is room for improvement.
Topic:
European Union, Risk, Trade, Imports, Economic Security, and Interdependence
Political Geography:
China and Europe

133. Broader border taxes: a new option for European Union budget resources

Author:
Pascal Saint-Amans
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
There is widespread agreement on the need for new resources to fund the European Union's budget in order to meet increasing spending demands, not least repayment of debt incurred as part of the EU’s post-pandemic economic recovery. In particular it is seen as desirable that the EU should have ‘own’ resources, or reliable ongoing revenue streams. But there is little agreement on what new own resources could consist of. Limited reform so far has led to the introduction of a levy paid by EU members depending on plastic packaging waste generated in their territory and not recycled. Meanwhile, the European Commission has proposed resources for the EU budget from emissions trading revenues, and from levies collected under the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). There proposals are pragmatic and move in the right direction, but do not go far enough. The debate about own resources should focus on whether the EU will be able to build genuine own resources based on common tax policies. The EU suffers from ‘tax leakage’ in which profits are shifted from high-tax to low-tax EU countries, and from there onto no or low-tax non-EU jurisdictions, often without the application of withholding taxes. It may not be too much of a stretch to compare this situation of tax leakage with the situation addressed by CBAM – a quasi-tax at the border. So far, an opportunity for what could be seen as a tax at the border of the internal market, aiming to protect the market from harmful competition, may have been missed. Such a tax could reflect the undertaxed profit rule agreed as part of the international deal on the corporate minimum tax. Focusing on protecting the revenues of EU members by common tax borders could offer scope for new own resources.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Borders, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
Europe

134. Ukraine’s path to European Union membership and its long-term implications

Author:
Zsolt Darvas, Marek Dabrowski, Heather Grabbe, Luca Léry, André Sapir, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Whether and when Ukraine accedes to the European Union will depend greatly on how and when its war with Russia ends and post-war reconstruction starts, and how the EU handles issues of governance, security, migration, trade, investment, the energy transition, decarbonisation and the EU budget. The enlargement process is likely to overlap with post-war reconstruction, increasing the EU's influence in fostering Ukraine’s institutional development. Ukrainian leaders will have strong incentives to comply with the accession criteria, which the EU should use astutely to create a better-functioning economy and public institutions, especially by reducing opportunities for corruption. This will require clearer standards for rule-of-law and fundamental values, including effective tools to ensure continued compliance after accession. That is also the most effective way to ensure a positive impact of future enlargements on EU governance. The EU will also need to develop assistance programmes to help the Ukrainian government manage post-war external and internal security challenges, including the large number of weapons in circulation, and to encourage Ukrainian refugees to return to the country when possible, as they will be needed for the reconstruction effort. If the current EU budget rules were applied and there were no transitional arrangements – which is unlikely – we calculate the total annual cost of Ukraine's integration into the EU budget at 0.13 per cent of EU GDP, which would hardly change net recipient/payer positions of current EU members. Some of this funding would come back to the EU via EU companies participating in EU-funded projects in Ukraine. Ukraine’s entry into the EU would benefit EU GDP via trade, migration and foreign direct investment, boosting employment, production and tax revenues in the EU. The history of EU enlargement shows that the strongest motivation for difficult reforms is a credible and predictable accession process based on rewarding reforms. Both Ukraine and the EU would benefit from progressive integration of the country into EU policies, alongside the formal accession negotiations. That would show the Ukrainian public the tangible benefits of moving towards EU standards, while also bringing Ukraine into areas such as energy cooperation and decarbonisation.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

135. The state of financial knowledge in the European Union

Author:
Maria Demertzis, Luca Léry Moffat, Annamaria Lusardi, and Juan Mejino Lopez
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Only one in two individuals in the European Union, on average, is financially knowledgeable. In response to a 2023 survey containing five questions assessing basic financial knowledge, only half of the respondents answered at least three of the five questions correctly. This represents a low level of financial knowledge and an obstacle for individuals to invest in financial markets. The questions most often answered correctly by respondents measured understanding of inflation and the relationship between risk and return. By contrast, only one in five respondents answered a question on the relationship between interest rates and bond prices correctly. Regarding inflation, there is a large difference between the least and most educated respondents in terms of answering the relevant question correctly. Gaps in understanding the concept of inflation are also evident between the youngest (18-24) and oldest respondents (55+) and between the poorest and richest households. A gender gap is present in financial knowledge, with 18 percentage points more men than women answering at least three out of five questions correctly, on average in the EU. Those with greater financial knowledge are less financially fragile in that they can still cover their expenses if there is a sudden loss of income, and are more confident that they will have sufficient funds to sustain themselves during retirement. Countries with higher proportions of people who are financially knowledgeable have higher numbers of people who both save with and borrow from financial institutions, an indication that financial knowledge may improve financial inclusion. All EU countries have, or are in the process of putting together, a national financial literacy strategy. There is an urgent need to roll out these strategies, to monitor progress over time and to establish best practices. Particular attention needs to be given to how financial knowledge interacts with digital skills as financial services are increasingly digitalised. Financial literacy strategies should also help close gender and other gaps in knowledge among vulnerable groups, and should ensure that financial education starts early and in schools.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Inflation, and Financial Literacy
Political Geography:
Europe

136. Unity in power, power in unity: why the EU needs more integrated electricity markets

Author:
Georg Zachmann, Carlos Batlle, Francois Beaude, and Christoph Maurer
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The energy crisis that started in 2022 reminded European governments of the resilience provided by relatively well-integrated European electricity markets, which have been painstakingly built-up over several decades. European Union leaders thus decided to reverse a creeping energy renationalisation and to invest in completing the internal market. However, there are some indications that this momentum is being lost, with different EU capitals taking different lessons from the energy crisis, at a time of unprecedented investment needs in generation and grids across the EU. The multiple benefits of enhanced EU energy-market integration should be emphasised. ‘Techno-economic’ benefits can be secured from optimising the design and operation of several national electricity systems jointly, rather than individually. These benefits will increase massively with higher shares of renewables and include less fossil-fuel burn and less volatile short-term prices, cost savings through harnessing regional renewables advantages, reduced need for expensive back-up capacity and flexibility, and enhanced resilience to shocks. In addition, greater energy-market integration will trigger benefits of a more managerial-governance related nature, though these are harder to quantify. They include benefits in terms of competition, innovation and credibility, which are particularly useful in the electricity sector, which typically faces rather long investment times and high degrees of concentration in purely national markets. Further market integration requires substantial political investment. Governments will need to deal with significant distributional effects within and between countries. Experience has shown that domestic political constraints in this respect are often numerous and difficult to overcome. Therefore, achieving the benefits of integration will require a vision on what degree of integration is feasible and desirable, and how to properly implement and govern it. It will also require an honest acknowledgement of the implications and costs of not pursuing greater integration.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Regional Integration, Electricity, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

137. Smarter European Union industrial policy for solar panels

Author:
Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, and Cecilia Trasi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The European Union plans a major increase in solar PV capacity from 263 GW today to almost 600 GW by 2030. If nothing changes, this expansion will be based almost exclusively on solar panels imported from China, which supplies over 95 percent of solar panels used in the EU. This dependence has raised concerns about EU economic security and geopolitical vulnerabilities, especially in light of recent global disruption. The EU has agreed in principle a non-binding 40 percent self-sufficiency benchmark for solar panels and other identified strategic technologies, to be approached or achieved by 2030. However, for the solar sector specifically, there is no strong economic justification for an import-substitution approach. Such a strategy risks increasing the costs of solar panels, slowing deployment and creating industries that are over-reliant on subsidies. EU solar manufacturing subsidies are not appropriate based on criteria of European production alone. Subsidies could, however, be justified on innovation grounds, by supporting new solar products that have a real chance to develop into sustainable industries that contribute to climate goals. To address concerns about short-term dependence, alternative tools should be employed: accelerated solar deployment, strategic stockpiling and gradually diversifying import sources. In the longer term, recycling of solar panels deserves greater attention and funding. In terms of strengthening economic resilience relative to China, Europe should implement an industrial policy that intervenes in sectors that are more likely to contribute to sustainable economic growth and alleviate decarbonisation bottlenecks.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, European Union, Imports, Solar Power, Economic Security, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

138. Europe’s under-the-radar industrial policy: intervention in electricity pricing

Author:
Ben McWilliams, Giovanni Sgaravatti, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The different ways in which European Union member-state governments add levies to the price of electricity creates huge discrepancies in the prices paid by consumers. Europe’s energy transition depends upon increasing electrification of the economy and increasing the share of that electricity produced by renewable sources. Both factors raise the importance of electricity taxes set by governments. The energy crisis drew attention to this: as electricity prices soared, governments responded with billions of euros in subsidies to protect households and companies. While the acute phase of the energy crisis has passed, growing concerns about industrial competitiveness create political pressure for governments to continue with such subsidies or tax exemptions. High profile examples include the French reform of nuclear-power generated electricity pricing, and a political debate in Germany over how aggressively to subsidise the electricity price paid by energy-intensive firms. We frame the debate on intervention in electricity pricing around five distributional dilemmas concerning the recuperation of electricity expenses: 1) whether to raise general or electricity taxes, 2) the split between household and companies, 3) the split between energy-intensive and non-energy intensive companies, 4) cross-border effects, and 5) trade-offs in attracting new clean-technology manufacturing factories. Priorities according to these distributional criteria will differ by country, but these factors should be central to discussions. Governments must recognise that efforts to lower prices artificially for one group of consumers will raise prices for others, including with cross-border implications. The current compromises in the French and German cases do not pose substantial issues to the integrity of the European single market and do not penalise non-energy-intensive domestic consumers excessively.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, European Union, Electricity, Price, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

139. Identity Continuities, Far-Right Acquiescence, and the “New” and the “Old”: Finnish and Swedish NATO Accession and Neutrality

Author:
Erik Isaksson
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
With Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO, the number of neutral or non-aligned states in the EU has been reduced to three: Austria, Ireland, and Malta. How did Finland and Sweden’s shifts come about? What do these shifting neutrality – alliance membership constellations mean for the concept of neutrality, and for Austria’s position as a neutral state? This paper first examines the Finnish and Swedish debates pertaining to their own respective shifts, with particular attention to the far-right parties in those countries. It argues three things: first, contrary to most commentary, both the Finnish and Swedish policy shifts were underpinned by identity considerations, identities that remain largely the same under NATO membership as under non-alignment. Second, the far right’s acceptance of NATO membership has been a mix of opportunism and broadly engrained views of Russia. Third, par-ticularly in Sweden, neutrality has become seen as a thing of the past, and alliance membership as new and exciting, with possible implications for how neutrality is understood internationally. The paper then examines the state of the neutrality debate in Austria, with particular attention to the notion of neutrality as Austrian identity, the role of the FPÖ, and the potential risks for “neutral Austria” going forward. It concludes with a summary of the paper’s findings; a look at how neutrality in Austria, too, might increasingly be seen as an “old” concept; and by offering examples of how foreign policy con-cepts have been successfully reimagined in the past.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Regional Integration, Neutrality, and Identity
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, and Sweden

140. The African Union's contested role in advancing gender equality

Author:
Karmen Tornius
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The African Union (AU) has put forth significant initiatives addressing gender equality issues on the continent but is confronted by concerns related to legitimacy, donor dependency and questionable impact on the ground.
Topic:
Development, African Union, Donors, Equality, and Gender
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

141. Energy as a weapon - decoding blackmail tactics in Europe

Author:
Veronika Slakaityte and Izabela Surwillo
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
‘Energy blackmail’ became a buzzword following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent energy crisis, but the phenomenon is not new. Energy blackmail has been employed by states to leverage their strategic energy resources for decades. In Europe, the weaponisation of energy predates Vladimir Putin’s time in Kremlin. Despite EU efforts to diversify its energy supply, the threat of energy blackmail persists, posing challenges not only to traditional energy dependencies but also to the increasingly digitalised energy sector.
Topic:
European Union, Energy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

142. Future Danish engagement with Africa: Insights and priorities for Denmark´s new Africa strategy from DIIS’ partners across the continent

Author:
Mary Boatemaa Setrana, Rahma Hassan, Faisal Garba, Mohamed Aden Hassan, Meron Zeleke Ersesso, Adam Moe Fejerskov, Nauja Kleist, and Mikkel Funder
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Remaking political relations with African countries has become a key priority for the Danish government, looking toward a future where Africa becomes of greater (geo)political importance to Denmark and Europe. To achieve this, Denmark is preparing a new plan for its future strategic engagement on the continent. Aiming to situate African countries closer to Denmark’s core foreign affairs, the plan is expected to address questions across the fields of foreign affairs, security, development, and trade, and focus on equal partnerships. The government has indicated a need to build on the mantra of ‘preaching less and listening more’ – as the Danish minister for foreign affairs framed it at a recent visit to Kenya – with political relations based on a ‘pragmatic idealism’ and more genuine forms of cooperation that reflect mutual interests. In this Policy Brief, some of DIIS’ African research partners consider key questions on what it takes to achieve equal partnerships, what a new Danish strategic engagement with Africa should look like, and what it should refrain from.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Engagement, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Denmark

143. EU technology resilience and autonomy

Author:
Flemming Splidsboel Hansen and Maria Mundt
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In the face of growing international competition between both individual states and coalitions of states, the European Union is developing a new approach towards technological resilience and autonomy.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Autonomy, Resilience, and International Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

144. The war in Ukraine poses unprecedented threats to aid workers

Author:
Jethro Norman
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
An interstate war in Europe presents new security challenges for humanitarians. Along the 960km Ukraine-Russia frontline, humanitarian infrastructure has been hit by shelling, missiles and drone strikes, and aid delivery disrupted by electronic warfare. Supporting specialised training and removing outdated bureaucratic burdens are some of the ways in which donors and policymakers can help humanitarian organisations adapt to this new context.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Aid, Conflict, Peace, Russia-Ukraine War, and Aid Workers
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

145. The European Union can go green and lower dependencies on China

Author:
Luke Patey
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Some Western pundits see the ongoing policy push from the European Union to de-risk supply chain dependencies on China as a threat to gains from decades of economic globalisation. Others regard Chinese industrial strengths in green technologies as unbreakable and see attempts to diversify the EU’s reliance as setting back global efforts to fight climate change. Yet, diversifying sources of critical minerals away from China and other large suppliers is a necessity in today’s volatile geopolitical climate. As well as actively pursuing new partnerships overseas to lower large dependencies on single sources, EU member states should fully harness new regulatory tools, such as the Critical Raw Materials Act, to diversify sources of critical minerals and exploit the Net-Zero Industry Act to support the production of green technologies and leverage European resources, capabilities and know-how. Contrary to conventional thinking, Europe is not starting from scratch when it comes to developing strategic supply chains in green, digital and defence technologies. Over time, there is ample potential for de-risking critical minerals to have a positive impact on the EU’s supply chain resilience and its contribution to lowering global emissions.
Topic:
European Union, Green Technology, Supply Chains, Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
China and Europe

146. Humanitarian principles are under fire in Ukraine

Author:
Jethro Norman
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Ukraine presents a unique challenge for many international humanitarian organisations. Operating in a context of heightened geo-political and donor interest, and in close proximity to military actors, amateur volunteer groups and Ukrainian civil society are testing the core principles of neutrality and impartiality that once underpinned humanitarian work.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Humanitarian Aid, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

147. Europe's role in the Sahel

Author:
Christine Nissen
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
A few years ago Africa’s Sahel region sat at the top of the EU’s foreign policy and security agenda. European member states were mobilising significant resources to address the security challenges of the region. This changed overnight on the 24th of February 2022 when Putin’s Russia invaded Ukraine and resurrected the spectre of conventional war on the European continent. From that day all Europe’s focus was directed to the Eastern threat, and European presence in the Sahel has since been scaled down. The Russian war in Ukraine is not the only reason why Europe is scaling down ambitions in the Sahel. Indeed, growing anti-Western sentiment amongst Sahelian governments and populations, and increasing resistance to European, and not least French, interference have made it challenging for European countries to stay engaged in the region. The Ukraine War and the European re-focus eastwards is symptomatic of the changing global order, which tells a broader story of European–African relations in crisis. The world is changing – and European governments are struggling to decide how to position themselves within it. In the short term Europe emerges as the primary loser due to its limited readiness to navigate this evolving landscape.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sahel

148. Analyzing How the Tools of the British Far-Right Have Evolved

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Since July 30, 2024, several British cities and towns have been gripped by a wave of far-right violence described as the worst since World War II. This outbreak followed the killing of three girls in a knife attack at a children's party in Southport, northwest Britain. The violence involved a series of criminal and inflammatory actions in what appear to be coordinated efforts to thwart immigration and intimidate minorities in Britain. This reflects the British far-right's ability to utilize and even evolve its traditional tools to adapt to the current context and available resources.
Topic:
Immigration, Violence, Far Right, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

149. How the Aid Fund for Northern Syria can upgrade humanitarian aid and EU geopolitical engagement

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
UN bureaucratic inertia, weak leadership, Stockholm syndrome and a laissez-faire attitude by donors have allowed structural problems with humanitarian aid delivery in Syria to persist for too long. These problems include regime capture of aid, dependency on Damascus to deliver aid cross-border and, more recently, too much focus on lifesaving aid. The coming humanitarian funding crunch demands that these problems are finally addressed at pain of a rapid increase in the misery of millions of Syrians. This will have consequences both in terms of local predation and international migration. The Aid Fund for Northern Syria (AFNS) could be the vehicle to break existing molds due to its more diverse governance structure, independence of both Damascus and the UN, greater focus on Early Recovery and an innovative, if emergent, localisation strategy. As a bonus, it can support a pragmatic conflict management strategy for northern Syria based on the ‘safe, calm and neutral environment’ concept of the 2012 Geneva Communiqué and UNSCR 2254. Donors should consider the practical actions proposed in this brief to put their money where their mouths are.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, European Union, Geopolitics, and Donors
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Syria

150. How Dutch farmers’ protests evolved into political mobilisation

Author:
Camille van Hees, Louise Van Schaik, and Pieter Zwaan
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The early signs of the now omnipresent polarisation between farmers’ interests and environmental goals began to appear in the Netherlands in 2019. That year saw both the launch of the European Green Deal as the EU’s overarching growth strategy and the establishment of a political party representing farmers’ interests in the Netherlands, the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB). Five years later, the Green Deal has lost its appeal and the BBB is likely to enter government, although electorally the party seems past its peak. Farmers are now protesting across Europe and many oppose, in particular, EU environmental policies they consider overly bureaucratic and damaging to their business. The European Christian democrats (EPP) have clearly repositioned themselves as representatives of agricultural interests. They are keen to keep the rural vote, which is also sensitive to other more conservative and right-wing issues. In the Netherlands, this became clear in the most recent general elections where populist parties managed to attract a large part of the (rural) vote and where Geert Wilders’ anti-migration Freedom Party (PVV) became the biggest with about 25%. In this policy brief, we will zoom in on the events that shaped the rise of the BBB and led to the current political situation in the Netherlands. On that basis, this policy brief looks at how the Dutch case could be a prologue for the forthcoming European Parliament elections.
Topic:
Protests, Political Movements, Mobilization, Green Deal, and Farmers
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

151. Can Europe and India deepen ties through critical raw materials cooperation?

Author:
Emil Havstrup and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Europe and India are rapidly embarking on a clean energy transition with the share of renewables skyrocketing in their respective energy mixes. This heightens concerns about dependence on critical raw materials (CRMs), such as cobalt, nickel and graphite, that are needed for renewable energy technologies, and whose supply chains are largely dominated by singular exporters such as China. It is not the case that Europe and India lack reserves of, for instance, lithium, but there are barriers to extracting them, and even if new mining activities are undertaken, it will take time. This policy brief reviews how the two parties are juggling with their dependence on China-dominated CRM dependent value chains. Both realise that derisking, diversification and/or decoupling cannot be easily and quickly achieved. While the EU is nervous about being drawn into a wider regional conflict between the United States and China, India’s attempts to deal with the China threat has drawn it into various issue-based strategic partnerships. It makes sense for the two blocs to reframe the discussion on de-risking and instead cooperate on joint investments into Research & Development into alternatives to some CRMs, developing competitive supply chains for new materials and cooperating on the re-use and recycling of existing materials.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Renewable Energy, and Raw Materials
Political Geography:
China, Europe, India, and Asia

152. NATO Summits: Looking ahead from Washington to The Hague

Author:
Dick Zandee and Roman de Baedts
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The July 2024 NATO Summit in Washington DC confirmed that the Alliance is ‘back to the future’. Upon its 75th anniversary NATO took important decisions to further strengthen its political-military power in response to a variety of security challenges, in particular to the threat posed by Russia. Increased defence spending is starting to deliver results in improving the military capabilities of European Allies. NATO’s partnerships with the EU and with countries in the Pacific have been reinforced. Yet, dark clouds are hanging above the Alliance on its way from Washington to its next Summit in The Hague (June 2025). First and foremost, the US presidential elections on 5 November cast a shadow over the transatlantic cooperation, or even worse, may result in a category 5 hurricane for NATO if Donald Trump re-enters the White House. American military support for Ukraine could stop completely, increasing the pressure on European Allies to do more, or to end their ‘whatever it takes’ rhetoric. To ensure the US contribution to NATO, European Allies will need to step up their defence efforts, even under Democratic President Kamala Harris. The American focus on the Indo-Pacific/China is raising questions about the European role and contribution to the Alliance as well as to the Asia-Pacific region. This policy brief will address these major issues for the Alliance on the road from Washington to The Hague.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

153. European defence industry: urgent action is needed!

Author:
Dick Zandee
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
By invading Ukraine in February 2022 Russia has thrown the European security order into the waste bin. In essence, the Western reaction has been ‘we will not fight, but we will support Ukraine in its war effort’. Western countries have delivered a wide variety of weapon systems. Although this support has been vital for Ukraine’s defence, it has resulted in minimum levels of American and European arms and ammunition stocks. As a consequence, the burning question is how to ramp up the defence industrial production, in particular as the armed confrontation in Ukraine has developed into a war of attrition. The EU has launched several initiatives to support member states in procuring replacement equipment and ammunition to be delivered to Ukraine. At the same time, European countries have to strengthen their own defence capabilities in order to increase their share of the burden of NATO’s collective defence, while also realising more European autonomy. In the EU, there is broad political support for the strengthening of the European Defence Industrial and Technological Base, not only for economic reasons but as a necessary precondition for Europe’s security. However, despite this urgent call, industrial production is lagging behind, endangering both Ukraine’s war effort and the strengthening of European security and defence. This policy brief assesses how the EU is responding to the urgent challenge of adapting its defence industry to the requirements resulting from the new security environment. The central question is what should be done in order to change gear for increasing the production of ammunition and weapon systems. After assessing the consequences of the changed security situation for European capability needs, the author addresses the steps so far taken by the EU and the challenges lying ahead as the war will continue in 2024 and perhaps even beyond. The final section presents ten concrete action lines to overcome the obstacles for ramping and speeding up European defence industrial production.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

154. Towards an EU geopolitical approach on transformative terms in the Western Balkans

Author:
Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief assesses the EU response after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, asking how the EU can pursue a geopolitical EU enlargement approach while maintaining its transformative objectives. The brief first provides a concise assessment of the instruments that the EU employs to strengthen democratic resilience and to counter Russian influence in the three countries. We argue that the EU has a comprehensive and effective range of instruments available, even if Russia has maintained its ability to project especially ‘soft’ power. However, when looking at the overall EU political approach towards these countries, we observe negative effects of the manner in which geopolitical imperatives for enhanced engagement are currently converted into strategy and discourse. More specifically, an insufficiently overarching firm and confident EU political approach towards the Western Balkans undermines the transformative potential of the EU’s impressive toolbox for the region. The brief concludes that by becoming more confident and upfront, sticking to its values and making use of negative conditionality besides offering positive incentives, the EU can pursue a more effective geopolitical approach on transformative terms towards the Western Balkans.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, Balkans, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

155. De-risking by promoting digital solutions for green tech: Going Dutch?

Author:
Alexandre Ferreira Gomes, Giulia Cretti, and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, the growing demand for technologies that will accelerate the green transition exposes European countries to risks. Most attention is devoted to strategic dependencies on China for critical raw materials (CRM) and components that are necessary for such technologies. However, the data-driven digital elements and applications used, for instance, to optimise energy use are also relevant, as they intensify cybersecurity and data privacy-related concerns. To de-risk Europe’s strategic dependencies in this field, adopting a balanced approach between ‘promoting’, ‘protecting’ and ‘partnering’ is essential. This Clingendael Policy Brief focuses on the ‘promote’ angle by exploring the role of the Dutch government and private sector in fostering the Dutch digital green-tech industry. With its track record in innovation within the EU, the Netherlands is well placed to boost the commercialisation of digital green technologies through procurement. Moreover, the Netherlands could lead the discussions on defining cybersecurity standards and interoperability norms at EU and international forums.
Topic:
Partnerships, Green Technology, Digital Technologies, and Critical Raw Materials (CRM)
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

156. Navigating the climate crisis together: EU-ASEAN cooperation on climate adaptation

Author:
Sarah Lokenberg and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The environmental, economic and security implications of climate change are unmistakably evident in both the ASEAN and the EU. As building climate resilience is an area where the EU has a solid track record and international outreach, this creates an avenue for closer cooperation with ASEAN. Water management and disaster governance are two promising areas within the field of climate adaptation. This policy brief argues for closer EU-ASEAN cooperation on climate adaptation, emphasising the need for robust institutions, better access to information and improved water infrastructures to increase resilience. To achieve these objectives, currently successful bilateral initiatives could be elevated into broader regional collaboration and the EU could encourage investments in water infrastructures and disaster risk information technologies. Furthermore, the EU could support the creation of regulatory frameworks for improved water management and institutional alignment by providing financial support and technical advice. In the context of US-China rivalry, a strengthened strategic partnership could also serve as a counterbalance to current regional geopolitics.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Water, European Union, ASEAN, Regional Politics, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia

157. Foreign Lobbying in the U.S.

Author:
Ben Freeman and Nick Cleveland-Stout
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
This brief takes a deep dive into a newly available tranche of data tracking foreign influence in the U.S. political process. The new data was released in early 2024 following reforms to the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), which made access to all foreign registrants’ political activities and campaign contributions publicly available. The brief unearths a complex web of foreign influence in the United States — with countries like Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Azerbaijan reaping the benefits of massive political influence campaigns. Influence operations today often follow a standard playbook: outside countries use firms based in Washington to lobby active members of Congress in pursuit of various aims — such as receiving U.S. weapons, currying American favor in regional conflicts, and more general reputation laundering. In 2022 and 2023, FARA registrants reported $14.3 million in political contributions and nearly 130,000 political activities. This relationship between lobbyists representing foreign countries and U.S. policymakers in itself is concerning, raising questions of whether politicians are really prioritizing the interests of their constituents, and of all Americans. To make matters worse, authoritarian regimes represent a majority of the most active countries — including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which placed first and fourth, respectively, among the countries most engaged in political activities under FARA from 2022–23. Greater FARA transparency is certainly a welcome development, but still more can be done to help Americans understand the who, what, and how of the foreign lobbying industry. For one, FARA registrants should be required to report a unique identifier for each office contacted, making it easier to determine lobbyists’ contacts. Greater language specificity in the descriptions of political activities is also needed. In addition, Congress could pass legislation that would introduce civil fines on the underreporting of political activities, although such a step should be accompanied by protections against the abuse of the FARA process.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Conflict, and Military-Industrial Complex
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates

158. Paying Off Populism: EU-Regionalpolitik verringert Unterstützung populistischer Parteien

Author:
Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
How to break the populist wave? With the elections to the European Parliament ahead, and the Presidential Elections in the US looming, this question bothers policymakers in many Western democracies. Our study shows that regional policies effectively decrease populist support. Specifically, EU Regional Policy investing into the development of lagging-behind regions decreases the vote share obtained by right-fringe populist parties by 15–20 percent. Moreover, regional policy investments increase trust in democratic institutions, and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:
Political Economy, European Union, Populism, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

159. Foul Play? On the Scale and Scope of Industrial Subsidies in China

Author:
Frank Bickenbach, Dirk Dohse, Rolf Langhammer, and Wan-Hsin Liu
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
China makes extensive use of subsidies in order to take a leading role on the global markets in the green technology sectors of electric vehicles, wind turbines and railway rolling stock. According to DiPippo et al. (2022) and recent OECD studies, the industrial subsidies in China are at least three to four times or even up to nine times higher than in the major EU and OECD countries. According to a very conservative estimate, industrial subsidies in China amounted to around EUR 221 billion or 1.73% of Chinese GDP in 2019. According to recent data of 2022, direct government subsidies for some of the dominant Chinese manufacturers of green technology products had also increased significantly - the electric car manufacturer BYD alone received EUR 2.1 billion. The authors point out that Chinese companies are benefiting from further support measures, including subsidized inputs, preferential access to critical raw materials, forced technology transfers, the strategic use of public procurement and the preferential treatment of domestic firms in administrative procedures. The authors recommend the EU to use its anti-subsidy proceeding against BEV imports from China to enter into negotiations with the Chinese government and persuade it to abolish public support measures that are particularly harmful to the EU.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Business, Renewable Energy, Industry, Subsidies, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:
China and Europe

160. Build Carbon Removal Reserve to Secure Future of EU Emissions Trading

Author:
Wilfried Rickels, Mathias Fridahl, Roland Rothenstein, and Felix Schenuit
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
• A carbon central bank (CCB) that translates carbon removals into allowances would transform the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) from a fiat allowance to a gold standard system, ensuring unchanged net emissions on the path to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets. • Meeting such expectations would require a CCB with a clear commitment to a net-zero GHG target, but also with the capacity to manage the market on the path to that target. • This requires a strong institutional framework, which could be achieved by integrating the CCB into the European Central Bank (ECB), building on its reputation and capacity. • Given the long lead time to set up such an institution, the European Commission should already take the first steps to fulfil the other requirement, namely building up a large carbon removal certificate (CRC) reserve, which would provide the CCB with the credibility to stabilize the market in the future. • To fill the CRC reserve, the EU should emulate the US approach by immediately initiating resultbased carbon removal procurement as a first key step of a sequential approach to integrated carbon removal into climate policy. • This could be achieved by developing a centralized procurement program, supporting existing procurement programs, such as Sweden’s or Denmark’s, and incentivizing additional EU member states to initiate procurement. • An important prerequisite for this is the ability to bank CRCs that are not yet eligible for compliance with near-term EU climate targets and use them in later crediting periods.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero, and Carbon Central Bank
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

161. EU-China Trade Relations: Where Do We Stand, Where Should We Go?

Author:
Alexander Sandkamp
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
• In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, China’s share in European trade has fallen continuously. Nevertheless, the country remains the EU’s largest source of imports (20.5 percent in 2023) and its third largest export destination (8.7 percent). • This apparent dominance of China is put into perspective when incorporating intra-EU trade. For example, Germany – Europe’s largest economy – sent 6.1 percent of its ex-ports to China, but 55 percent to EU members states. For imports, the Chinese and Euro-pean shares are 11.5 percent and 52.7 percent, respectively. • Decoupling the EU from China (i.e. almost eliminating bilateral trade) would permanent-ly reduce European real income by 0.8 percent in the long-run. In terms of gross domes-tic product in 2023, the EU would forego 136 billion EUR of value added every year. Short-term effects are likely to be stronger. • China dominates global production of important products such as laptops and mobile phones as well as raw materials including Germanium and Gallium that are critical for the green energy transition. A trade disruption might thus both delay the energy transi-tion and increase its costs. • To reduce specific dependencies, the EU should intensify its efforts to diversify procure-ment by increasing the attractiveness of alternative suppliers. Finding the courage to move forward in the negotiation of free trade agreements with potential strategic part-ners such as Australia and the Mercosur countries would strengthen the EU’s geopolitical position and increase prosperity among partners.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Geoeconomics, and Decoupling
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Germany

162. EU-NATO relations in a new threat environment: Significant complementarity but a lack of strategic cooperation

Author:
Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The relationship between the EU and NATO has traditionally been characterised by a degree of ambiguity and competition but also by attempts at coordination and cooperation. In the context of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the EU and NATO have played crucial and mutually complementary roles, taking advantage of their respective strengths. However, there are also many areas in which their efforts overlap and closer cooperation would be necessary. Thus far, only small steps in this direction have been taken. Ideally, the EU and NATO would work together to develop a more strategic outlook on issues such as developing Europe’s military capabilities, strengthening the security and defence of membership aspirants as well as managing crises beyond EU and NATO territory. Formal relations between the EU and NATO remain complicated. However, there are ways to work around the existing obstacles to EU-NATO cooperation, not least in the capitals of EU and NATO member states.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Europe

163. Nuclear arms control policies and safety in artificial intelligence: Transferable lessons or false equivalence?

Author:
Eoin Micheál McNamara
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Multiple nuclear arms control treaties have collapsed in recent years, but analogies associated with them have returned as possible inspiration to manage risks stemming from artificial intelligence (AI) advancement. Some welcome nuclear arms control analogies as an important aid to understanding strategic competition in AI, while others see them as an irrelevant distraction, weakening the focus on new frameworks to manage AI’s unique and unprecedented aspects. The focus of this debate is sometimes too narrow or overly selective when a wider examination of arms control geopolitics can identify both irrelevant and valuable parallels to assist global security governance for AI. Great power leaders frequently equate AI advancement with arms racing, reasoning that powers lagging behind will soon see their great power status weakened. This logic serves to intensify competition, risking a spiral into more unsafe AI practices. The global norm institutionalization that established nuclear taboos can also stigmatize unethical AI practices. Emphasizing reciprocal risk reduction offers pragmatic starting points for great power management of AI safety. This research is part of the Reignite Multilateralism via Technology (REMIT) project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 101094228.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Cybersecurity, Economic Policy, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and United States of America

164. China as the second nuclear peer of the United States: Implications for deterrence in Europe

Author:
Jyri Lavikainen
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
China’s nuclear build-up will make it a nuclear peer adversary of the United States in the 2030s. The US will have to deter both Russia and China, as well as other regional adversaries, with forces geared to engage in one major war at a time. If two major wars occur either simultaneously or sequentially, US military capability will be put under great stress. In the event of a second war, the US may find itself in a situation of conventional military inferiority, which it might have to compensate for with greater reliance on nuclear weapons. Since the US remains the ultimate guarantor of European security, its deterrence challenges elsewhere affect European security as well. Thus, even the possibility of war in the Indo-Pacific is a European security issue. European NATO allies can help mitigate the two-peer problem by permanently taking on a greater share of the burden of Europe’s conventional defence. At the same time, the effectiveness of NATO’s nuclear capability must be enhanced. A strategic defeat for Russia in the war in Ukraine would postpone Russia’s ability to pose a military threat to Europe. Ukraine’s NATO membership would further serve to reduce the threat of another major war in Europe.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

165. Foreign investments, de-risking and the EU’s green transition: Mining critical minerals in Finland

Author:
Elina Sinkkonen and Marco Siddi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The EU is highly dependent on imports of critical and strategic raw materials, both at the extraction and the processing stages. Many of the key supply chains for these materials are dominated by China. In addition, the EU is also dependent on China for many green technologies, such as battery production. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act (2023) sets concrete targets for reducing dependencies in the green transition by 2030. Considering both the level of existing dependencies in critical and strategic raw materials and the fact that the Act does not provide any new funding instruments, the feasibility of reaching the set targets is questionable. The Finnish mining sector presents an interesting case that illustrates the scarcity of domestic financing. Most metal ore mines in Finland are owned by foreign companies, and similar trends apply to the refining and recycling of materials. If the EU wishes to mitigate the risks of becoming dependent on authoritarian countries, foreign investments in sectors relevant to the green transition should be subject to investment screening. For example, the Finnish Act on the Screening of Foreign Corporate Acquisitions does not cover greenfield investments such as investments in building battery factories.
Topic:
European Union, Mining, Supply Chains, Green Transition, Raw Materials, Critical Raw Materials (CRM), and De-Risking
Political Geography:
Europe and Finland

166. EU support for Ukraine: The paradox of insufficient assistance

Author:
Tyyne Karjalainen
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Since Russia started its aggression against Ukraine in 2014, EU member states have lacked the political will to firmly contest Russia’s imperialism in the shared neighbourhood. This was concretized in the rejection of Ukraine’s EU path and the failure to build Ukraine’s military capabilities before 2022. The EU’s response to Russia’s full-scale invasion has been more successful than expected considering its limited capabilities and some past failures of international security assistance. The West is, however, failing to equip Ukraine to win the war. This paradox of insufficient aid leaves Ukraine in limbo, whereby it is enabled to continue the defence effort but without adequate means to succeed. In theory, the EU backs Ukraine’s strategy of non-negotiation with Russia, but the limited military support is pushing Kyiv towards peace talks. EU capitals continue to disagree over the extent to which Russia’s imperialist policies need to be suppressed, and whether small concessions could help to end the war in Europe. Even in the scenario where Ukraine emerges from the war as a truly sovereign state, the risk of future Russian interference, combined with Ukraine’s particular vulnerabilities and the likely challenges of post-war reconstruction, cast a shadow over its immediate future.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

167. The rise of the far right in the European Union: Gaining power not through a sweeping victory, but through creeping normalisation

Author:
Nils Fabian Müller
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
In the 2024 EU elections, far-right parties are expected to win more seats in the European Parliament than ever before. At the national level, too, far-right parties are entering more and more EU governments. Despite these gains, the centre-right European People’s Party, rather than the far right, is likely to play the central role in the EU institutions in the next legislature. The EU’s consensus-based system is a safeguard against the sudden seizure of power by far-right parties. But once they have achieved a certain position, the same system makes it difficult for others to form majorities without them. The EU is therefore facing not a sweeping but a creeping gain in far-right power, as centrist political parties become more open to cooperation, and far-right positions are slowly normalised in political discourse. Paradoxically, the very mechanisms that are supposed to protect national sovereignty (such as unanimity requirements in the Council) are the ones most likely to allow far-right parties to influence EU policy, even if they represent only a minority of EU citizens.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Far Right, and European Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe

168. The Joint Expeditionary Force in Northern Europe: Towards a more integrated security architecture?

Author:
Antti Pihlajamaa
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The Joint Expeditionary Force – a UK-led defence cooperation format of ten European countries – has gained political momentum since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since the late 2010s, the JEF has shifted its focus towards hybrid issues, increasingly in Northern Europe. While its role in the hybrid sphere is potentially fruitful, the JEF should be wary of taking on too wide a range of tasks. The JEF’s role as a “sub-threshold” actor could complement NATO’s collective defence efforts below Article 5. Hence, the JEF should be more coherently integrated into the Northern European security architecture. Obstacles to JEF-NATO integration have now been removed, as all JEF nations are also members of the alliance. A more explicit division of labour between the JEF and NATO would help Northern European countries to handle the current security environment comprehensively. Such a security architecture, covering all dimensions of the conflict spectrum, would be particularly beneficial for Finland, which shares a long common border with Russia.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Security, Defense Cooperation, and Joint Expeditionary Force
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Finland, and Baltic States

169. EU migration policy and calls for the externalisation of asylum: Intensifying partnerships, exploring new models

Author:
Saila Heinikoski
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
After years of negotiations, the EU has adopted the Pact on Migration and Asylum, and recently concluded migration partnerships with Tunisia, Mauritania and Egypt. While the Pact addresses internal migration rules within the Union, in practice the focus seems to be shifting towards the external dimension of migration. The security situation in Europe reinforces the need to build stronger partnerships. The aim is not to push the countries from which people most often migrate to Europe into partnerships with countries that may ally themselves against Europe, for example by instrumentalising migration. Even before the European Parliament elections, EU member states and political groups started to push the idea of transferring the asylum procedure to third countries. This was notably stated in a letter sent to the Commission in May 2024, signed by 15 member states. Examples of the externalisation of asylum procedures include the outsourced Rwanda model eventually abandoned by the UK, the offshoring model being implemented in Albania by Italy, and the proposed return hub model, whereby rejected asylum-seekers would be transferred to a third country if they cannot be directly returned to their countries of origin.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Refugees, Asylum, Migration Policy, and Externalization
Political Geography:
Europe

170. Russia’s wartime ideology: Radicalization, rent-seeking and securing the dictator

Author:
Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Anti-Western propaganda and the indoctrination of citizens, especially young people, have gradually intensified since the early days of Putin’s rule. However, their radicalization during the war is indicative of the regime’s need for manipulative control rather than reflective of broad support for the regime’s worldview. The most significant shift in the Kremlin’s wartime propaganda has been its codification in school education since the summer of 2022. This timing reveals more about the regime’s need to justify the war and its consequences than it does about any consistent long-term strategy. Key actors behind the ideological codification are opportunistically exploiting the current context. Meanwhile, ideological radicals face little opposition, as most citizens show limited interest in their activities. Despite the regime’s indoctrination practices, the indifference of society suggests that the conditions for a strong anti-Western consensus after Putin will be weak. Such a consensus can only emerge if the future regime, like the current one, is able to maintain satisfactory material conditions and a tolerable daily life alongside its ideological views, whatever they may be.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Radicalization, Democracy, Ideology, Post-Soviet Space, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

171. Europe’s development and peacebuilding cuts: Securing short-term interests, risking long-term security

Author:
Katariina Mustasilta
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Development cooperation budgets are tightening in the EU amid economic pressures and a focus on security and defence. Two broad shifts are taking place in EU and member state investments in peacebuilding and conflict prevention: a general decline in funding and decreasing attention to conflict-affected regions and countries in particular. Local and international conflict prevention and peacebuilding actors need to frame their work to align with the EU’s economic, security and geopolitical interests in order to remain relevant in an era of strategic competition. The implications of the shifts in funding will depend on how changes are implemented and under what types of strategies. A general risk is that policy decisions will be based on a short-term and largely reactive rationale at the expense of a long-term perspective on Europe’s interests.
Topic:
Security, Development, International Cooperation, European Union, Crisis Management, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Europe

172. Demography in the next institutional cycle: Preparing the landing space

Author:
Maria Gargano and Emilia Pauwels
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Demographic challenges, under different narratives, mediatic and political framing, have been more and more present in the European political debate. The Report on the Future of the Single Market, the so called ‘Letta Report’, mentions demographic shifts a dozen times. Many parties in the run up to the elections for the renewal of the European Parliament in June 2024, have inserted this topic in their programmes. The Greens and the European Socialists approached demography through prioritizing the participation and wellbeing of older generations, with the latter also calling for a cohesion policy which reverses brain drain from remote regions. The European People’s Party takes a more structural approach, promising to continue the support for the current Vice President for Democracy and Demography with the suggestion of introducing a coordinating agency, while ECR Group adopts a fertility-centred view, advocating for measures to support birth rates and family values. In addition, the strategic agenda for the next five years provides to address in a comprehensive way demographic challenges and to ensure the support to a thriving longevity society. However, the borders of a landing space in which the different policy areas intertwine with the consequences of demographic change, remain very uncertain.
Topic:
Demographics, European Union, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

173. Back to the Future: Applying Cold War Wisdom to Modern Belgian Defence

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Dust off the Cold War files that are lying under mounds of dust in the archives of our European Defence chancelleries. Bring back willing retired officers to share their knowledge of how things were done over 45 years of a solid and ultimately successful defence posture. There is bound to be a wealth of instructive and useful structures, tools, experiences and models, tested to their limit and refined to near perfection over the period of the Cold War between 1945 to the early 1990s. They can be adapted to suit the need for a rapid build-up of both defence capabilities as well as resilience. Belgium’s obligations in NATO: Cold War lessons in brigades’ formations As the new Belgian government undergoes the trials and tribulation of horse-trading to form a new cabinet, following the recent general election, it behoves all politicians to make the defence of the realm a priority, using the wealth of information contained in the experiences of the Cold War. Do the negotiating politicians need more of a prompt than the NATO summit currently held in Washington (2024), celebrating the 75th anniversary of the most successful defence alliance in history, that coincided with the start of the negotiation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Cold War, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Belgium

174. Three Key Concepts for a More Successful Migration Policy in Belgium

Author:
Pierre Verbeeren
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In this policy brief, the author proposes 3 concepts to underpin the new Belgian migration policy, taking into account the new structure of the State. Belgium needs a robust mechanism for dialogue between federal and federated entities. The Regions and Communities have the essential competences for integration. Until our societies find the key to integration, migration policies will remain painful. Finally, our policies must respond to flows of migrants, not to stocks of migrants. These policies must support trajectories rather than groups. A government agreement based on dialogue, integration and flows is more likely to meet the challenges of migration than an agreement that reinforces the federal state’s sovereign power over a stock of migrants.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Migration, European Union, Domestic Policy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Belgium

175. Thoughts on Improving EU Governance

Author:
Jim Cloos and Giles Merritt
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The EU is changing before our eyes, and we need to rethink parts of its governance. The institutional change-over in 2024 provides a good opportunity to do that. Streamlining EU governance is key to improving its efficiency and gaining credibility and popular support. We asked close to one hundred EU policy specialists with various backgrounds to answer a questionnaire on ‘Strategy and priority-setting,’ ‘Structures,’ ‘Working methods and red tape, and ‘Communication.’ Our focus is on adjustments short of treaty change. Most of our interlocutors agreed with this stance, but there were also dissenting voices. As one expert remarked: “The small reforms we are talking about here are simple, blurring the minds and creating an illusion that change in procedures can resolve fundamental governance and legitimacy deficits….” It is necessary to clarify our thinking. We do not rule out treaty change and more important institutional reforms over time. But there is no appetite presently for a major debate about treaty change with a Convention and a long negotiation process. Waiting for such a process to bring about much needed governance adjustments would be a mistake. Instead, improving governance now may well lead to more ambitious reforms once the conditions are right or the outside circumstances dictate a much more radical overhaul of the EU.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Institutions, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

176. Re-Empowering Belgian Foreign Policy

Author:
Alexander Mattelaer
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Belgium’s existing foreign policy framework was never designed to cope with the return of war and the decay of the rules-based international order. As a result, the country’s international position is rapidly deteriorating. The incoming Belgian government will face the daunting task of articulating a new foreign policy that is tailored to the demands of a new era. This Egmont Policy Brief makes the case for putting security back at the centre of Belgium’s international outlook, complementing the strong focus on the EU with strong bilateral diplomacy, and reversing the budgetary erosion of the Belgian foreign policy apparatus. By strengthening its diplomatic corps and its network abroad, the new government can help ensure the collective security and prosperity of all Belgian citizens, that is to say: the national interest.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Belgium

177. Modi III and the EU, after the Elections

Author:
Jan Luykx
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The May elections in India and the June elections for the European Parliament have resulted in leadership-continuity in Delhi and in EU-Brussels. Does this mean that Europe can expect ‘more of the same’ from the new Indian government and vice versa? Will the EU and India take the opportunity of this new start to re-engage in a more significant way than they have done during the last couple of years? Will they be able to identify common interests, and more importantly, act upon them?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Narendra Modi, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, South Asia, and India

178. The EU Joint Communication on the ClimateSecurity Nexus One Year On

Author:
Eleonora Milazzo
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
To mark one year since the adoption of the Joint Communication on ‘A New Outlook on the Climate and Security Nexus’ in June 2023, last summer the Belgian Presidency of the EU and the Egmont Institute, together with the EEAS, organised a workshop to take stock of the progress in its implementation. The conclusions reached during the workshop indicate that the Joint Communication has consolidated ‘climate and security’ as a key policy area. The broad approach of the Communication to climate change and environmental degradation, and peace, security and defence, ensures new thematic and operational connections – both at the global level and in specific local contexts. At the same time, in the next policy cycle, it is important to continue to support the operationalisation of this nexus across the whole spectrum of relevant policy areas including human security, conflict prevention, peace, and development and humanitarian action. To achieve this, it is fundamental to strengthen evidence use through existing tools, ensure necessary human and financial resources, devise localised solutions, and engage with a broad range of partners.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Migration, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

179. Russia’s Potential Alliance with Hizbollah: A Strategic Challenge for the EU in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
One year on, the debate has been dominated by Israel, Hizbollah and the potential for regional war in the Middle East. An additional credible scenario has been worryingly absent: that in which Hizbollah and Russia cooperate, not necessarily to the exclusion of Iran as a third leg in a tripartite alliance. This scenario combines geography, history and geopolitics to bring Hizbollah and Russia closer together as a force to recon with. This is a possible development in the Southern Neighbourhood and the Levant that the EU needs to take seriously. Missing Russia’s potential move on Hizbollah could be an historic omission. The decapitation of Hizbollah’s chain of command that preceded the ground incursion, and Iran’s feeble reaction to the devastating assault on its Lebanese proxy, have created a new geopolitical vacuum and reality in the Eastern Mediterranean. Russia may spot an opportunity in the misfortunes of Hizbollah and move on a weakened prey. Will Russia’s direct influence return to Beirut for the first time since the 1770s when it occupied the city for a few months following the naval defeat of the Ottoman fleet at the battle of Cheshme? It is a distinct possibility, especially given Iran’s lukewarm military response, and one that the EU, and member states, must be prepared to deal with, if not pre-empt and prevent.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Eastern Mediterranean

180. Engaging in Fragile Settings: Acknowledging the Cost of Inaction

Author:
Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen, Céleste Ricci, and Edouard Rodier
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On September 30th, 2024, the Egmont Institute, the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), and the Centre for Humanitarian Action (CHA) convened a panel of experts from the humanitarian assistance, development, and peace sectors to assess the new working environment of the incoming European Commission and discuss its implication for the EU response to fragility. The discussion occurred days after the release of mission letters to Commissioners-designate, and provided an opportunity to assess how the EU, with its new structures and priorities, could sustain engagement in fragile contexts. This paper aims to restitute some of the findings and recommendations that emerged during the exchanges, focusing on pathways and instruments for more effective structural responses to fragility during this decisive period.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, State Engagement, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:
Europe

181. Geopolitics and Geography: A Realigned EU Strategy for Stability in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The new EU Commission should commence its geopolitical thinking by acknowledging that geography is not kind to those who ignore her. The new European Parliament has the unique opportunity to become perhaps the first geopolitical parliament through a similar process. States, political leaders and societies ignore their geographic realities at their peril. Perceptions of location, distance and neighbourhoods can be dangerously distorted when they drift too far off from actual geographic realities. Digital technology, ease of air travel (bypassing the unpleasant geographic realities on the ground), combined with over three decades of peace in Europe, and 50 years in the Middle East, have created the distorted perceptions that somehow Israel’s and Ukraine’s neighbourhood was liberal Europe. These collective perceptions, untethered from their geographic realities, eclipsed perhaps the fact that both have neighbours with whom they have been at differing degrees of long-simmering conflicts. In reality, however, Israel and its neighbours have not succeeded at resolving the conflicts on its very borders, betraying the perception of peace. It is as if those neighbours with whom Israel has been in conflict had disappeared.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Geography
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

182. The Politics behind the EU-Rwanda Deal(s) and its Consequences

Author:
Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On the 14th of October, the news emerged that the EU is in the final stages of a discussion to award €20 million to the Rwandan army for its operations in Mozambique – where it is fighting insurgents in the oil-rich Gabo Delgado province. It would be the second time in two years that the EU awards this amount under the European Peace Facility (EPF): it also did so in December 2022. At that time, the decision was met with anger in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as it was already documented by the UN how the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) were supporting the M23 rebellion in Eastern DRC. In the meantime, this support has become clearer, with the last report from the UN Group of Experts from June 2024 extensively documenting the RDF operations with M23 in Eastern DRC. The news of potentially another €20 million is therefore met with anger in Congolese politics and society, primarily directed at the EU. It is a question which puzzles many: why does the EU want to award €20 million to the Rwandan army, in the midst of its violations of international law in Eastern DRC? This piece will unpack this question and reflect on the consequences for the regional dynamics and the EU.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Law, Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Rwanda

183. Why the BRICS Summit in Kazan should be a Wake-up Call for the EU

Author:
Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the growing influence of the BRICS in a multipolar world, as highlighted by their recent summit in Kazan, Russia, and the challenges to effective global multilateralism. Originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa, the BRICS have recently expanded to include Ethiopia, Egypt, the UAE, and Iran. All BRICS members seek to reshape global governance to provide a greater voice for the Global South and strengthen South-South cooperation. However, internal divisions persist: China, Russia, and Iran view the BRICS as a platform to counter Western influence, while India, Brazil, and South Africa pursue ‘multi-alignment’ to diversify their global partnerships. This brief argues that, given the urgency of pressing global challenges, the EU should take the Kazan Summit as a wake-up call to develop and implement a strategy for engaging the Global South in the much-needed reform of global multilateralism. This effort is essential despite the reelection of Donald Trump as US President.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, European Union, Multilateralism, BRICS, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, North Africa, and Asia-Pacific

184. From Carrots to Sticks, to Carrots Again? The EU’s Changing Sustainable Trade Agenda

Author:
Victor De Decker
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Although sustainability criteria include references to human, social and labour rights as well as broader environmental concerns, this policy brief will focus on measures related to carbon emission reduction in relation to the Paris Agreement. This policy brief consists of three parts. First, there will be an overview of how Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) chapters have gained prominence in European Free Trade Agreements. The second part will be dedicated to the autonomous, unilateral EU initiatives the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the Corporate Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). To conclude, there will be a brief analysis of how the EU is working within a multilateral setting on the issue of climate change. In 2015, the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, a landmark framework renowned for its far-reaching vision encompassing 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. These goals collectively constitute the “universal policy agenda,” aiming to address global challenges and foster inclusive economic growth. Notable among these goals is the promotion of sustainable international trade, identified as a pivotal policy instrument contributing to overarching SDGs. The 2030 Agenda positions international trade as “an engine for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction” while actively contributing to the broader pursuit of sustainable development.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, European Union, Trade, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

185. Strengthening the Political Credibility of NATO Extended Nuclear Deterrence

Author:
Wannes Verstraete
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Due to Russian nuclear signaling during its war against Ukraine, there is renewed interest in strengthening nuclear deterrence in a Euro-Atlantic context. The changes in the agreed language in the new North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Strategic Concept, adopted on 29 June 2022 at the summit in Madrid, and the Vilnius Summit Communiqué from 11 June 2023, are examples of this interest. Subsequently, this policy brief focuses on one aspect of strengthening NATO’s extended nuclear deterrence (END), namely how can NATO adapt its nuclear policy and posture to mitigate the uncertainties related to the political credibility challenge of extended nuclear deterrence? Questions regarding the political will to use nuclear weapons by the guarantor to protect and reassure allies in an END relationship is a well-known evergreen that reappears from time to time. Therefore, the author argues that NATO should address this political credibility challenge by strengthening the role of European allies in the nuclear strategy of the Alliance.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

186. China, the West, and the Rest: Who is Enjoying the Shadow of Whom?

Author:
Jasper Roctus and Bart Dessein
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On Tuesday, July 25, 2023, Beijing announced that seasoned diplomat Wang Yi would return to his function as head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a post he had held for ten years (2013–2022). With this, he replaced his predecessor Qin Gang, a so-called ‘wolf warrior’ diplomat who was in office for only a few months. When former premier Li Keqiang (2013–2023) died of a heart attack on October 27, 2023, crowds of ordinary citizens laid chrysanthemum bouquets across the country, mourning for the more open and optimistic times that had characterized the era under Li’s patron, State President and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Hu Jintao (r. 2002–2012). Minister of Defense Li Shangfu was, after an equally short stint in office, replaced by former People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) admiral Dong Jun on December 29, 2023. In the case of Li Shangfu, who was sanctioned by the United States (US) over arms sales to Russia, his resignation was combined with a purge and crackdown on corruption within the rocket force of the PLA. Given the focus on the PLAN in Xi Jinping’s military reforms of the mid-2010s, this could be interpreted as an advantage point for the faction of China’s leader. This signal stands in contrast to the promotion of Hu Haifeng, the son of Hu Jintao, to vice minister of Civil Affairs on January 16, 2024. Keeping the much-speculated removal of Hu’s father during the 20th National Congress of the CCP of October 22, 2022 into mind, one might ask: Who enjoys whose sunlight to step out of the shadows?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

187. Inviting Non-DAC Perspectives to the Funding Gap Discussion – The Need for a Paradigm Shift

Author:
Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen and Edouard Rodier
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The magnitude of the humanitarian funding gap raises major concerns regarding the viability of the aid system as we know it. It threatens millions of persons from having their most basic needs met, and their fundamental rights respected. In May 2023, the European Council’s Conclusion encouraged the EU and its Member States to “intensify their outreach to countries with the economic potential to assume a greater responsibility”. This paper provides initial insights into the approach of non-DAC States to the evolution of humanitarian action in the past decade, as well as into the barriers to further engagement, and the reasons for which these should be overcome. It is largely inspired by a first brainstorming session at the Egmont Institute in Brussels in January 2024, which brought together a wide range of experts and officials from European and international cooperation institutions. It was a necessary step, but not enough to fully engage with non-DAC States.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, European Union, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:
Europe

188. Breaking the Cycle: The Need for Better Integrated Responses in Neglected Crises

Author:
Edouard Rodier and Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The magnitude of the humanitarian funding gap soars each year, leaving an increasing number of people with no assistance. In 2023, only 35% of the $56bn global appeal was covered, and anticipated budget cuts from major humanitarian donors will likely worsen the situation. Neglected crises that do not receive enough media attention and political support struggle to attract financial assistance at scale for humanitarian, development, peace, or climate initiatives. Following up on the EU Council’s Conclusion from May 2023, which emphasised the importance of reducing humanitarian needs by strengthening the connection between humanitarian, development, and peace efforts (HDP nexus), this paper suggests examining how well the nexus is applied in overlooked and neglected areas. It proposes to take advantage of the 2024 EU election year to explore new approaches to the current model and makes concrete suggestions to support better coordinated and integrated responses.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, European Union, Crisis Management, and Donors
Political Geography:
Europe

189. Defence of Democracy: a Discussion on Democracy and the Path Ahead for a Culture of Participation

Author:
Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On the occasion of the European Commission’s release of the Defence of Democracy package (DoD) on 12 December 2023, the Egmont Institute – together with the G1000 – organised a debate focused specifically on the recommendation on the participation of citizens and civil society organisations in public policy-making. As part of Egmont’s wider outreach mandate under the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU and building upon G1000’s longstanding expertise as an innovator in the Belgian democratic landscape and beyond, the purpose was to explore the road ahead for this recommendation, both under the Belgian Presidency , as well as beyond by adoption of the next strategic agenda by the June European Council and the consequential Commission priorities.
Topic:
Civil Society, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

190. A Safe and Sovereign Europe in a Changing Global Context

Author:
Lila Djait
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, with support of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in collaboration with the Representation of the European Commission in Belgium, has organised a series of three foresight workshops and three working dinners. Each session was dedicated to a key strategic challenge, providing a vital platform for dialogue and expert insight sharing among decision-makers from European Union (EU) institutions, the Belgian administration, and civil society. Far from being just a theoretical exchange, the discussions were a targeted effort to further develop strategic long-term thinking, with a vision extending over the next 5 to 10 years. The second round of the foresight workshops and working dinners reflected on ‘A Safe and Sovereign Europe in a Changing Global Context’. In the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape, the EU is undergoing a transformation in its global positioning within the multipolar world order. The perception of the EU as a strongly integrated regional entity in an era of heightened power politics necessitates a more assertive, unified stance in global affairs, as well as a reinforced coordination of the internal and external dimension of EU policies. Yet, translating this perception into a cohesive, integrated approach to global affairs has proven challenging for its Member States. Strengthening EU sovereignty becomes crucial in this altered geopolitical reality posing a paradox: Member States need to transfer some sovereignty to the EU to effectively safeguard their national sovereignty. This is particularly relevant in areas like defence and migration, where national approaches fall short.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe and Belgium

191. China, Sovereign Internationalism, and Silent Pragmatism

Author:
Bart Dessein
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Until the early 1990s, transnational institutions of which the United States (US) and the Soviet Union (SU) were the respective epicenters were formed. Sovereign nation states transferred increasing amounts of decision-making power to these institutions. Post-Second World War internationalization, globalization, and interdependence thus created the bipolar world order of the Cold War era. An important effect of the demise of the SU and the disappearance of the Soviet-led institutions has been that the currently existing institutes of global governance are part and parcel of the liberal democratic world order. The growing economic and geopolitical clout of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has given this country the possibility to reposition itself vis-à-vis this liberal world order. This repositioning has, in its turn, also impacted the foreign policies of the European Union (EU) and its member states. All this makes it worthwhile to reassess the observation of Henry Kissinger who, looking back at the 1950s, stated that “from the outset, Mao [Zedong] had no intention to accept an international system in the design of which China had no voice” worthwhile.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Cold War, Sovereignty, European Union, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia-Pacific

192. India and The EU in 2024: Where to Next?

Author:
Jan Luykx
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In this multi-election-year both the Indian Government and the European Parliament will soon face their respective voters. Relations between the EU and India, two powerful actors on the world stage, will hardly be a theme of much importance in these elections. With the present geopolitical turmoil in the world as background, the question arises whether India and the EU should enhance their strategic cooperation to a more significant level. Russia’s war on Ukraine is posing a real threat to peace and security for the rest of Europe and for the Eurasian continent. With China, Russia’s partner against ‘the West’, extending its influence in many parts of the world, while the rest of the world is waiting, often with apprehension, the outcome of the US elections, insecurity and uncertainty have become dominant feelings in many capitals. In this context, should the EU-political level not take note of the potential benefits of closer relations with a more ambitious India?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, India, and Asia-Pacific

193. PESCO: The Last Chance

Author:
Sven Biscop and Beatriz Cózar Murillo
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
To the outside observer, Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) equals the long list of projects rather than the 20 binding commitments that were hailed as a game-changer when PESCO was launched in 2017. At first sight, these 68 projects do not seem to work towards a single objective. Is the end of PESCO clear even to the initiated? It is not, in fact, and that remains the greatest obstacle to success. A (second) strategic review of PESCO is underway, but putting PESCO on the right track requires a fundamental overhaul.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO)
Political Geography:
Europe

194. Promoting European Democracy and Solidarity in a Wider EU

Author:
Lila Djait
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, with the support of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in collaboration with the Representation of the European Commission in Belgium, has organised a series of three foresight workshops and three working dinners. Each session was dedicated to a key strategic challenge, providing a vital platform for dialogue and expert insight sharing among decision-makers from European Union (EU) institutions, the Belgian administration, and civil society. Far from being just a theoretical exchange, the discussions were a targeted effort to further develop strategic long-term thinking, with a vision extending over the next 5 to 10 years. The third round of foresight workshop and working dinner reflected on ‘Promoting European Democracy and Solidarity in a wider EU’. In recent years, the European Union has faced a pivotal juncture in its history, grappling with internal and external pressures that test its foundational principles of democracy, rule of law, and solidarity. The discourse surrounding the enlargement of the EU, adherence to the rule of law, fiscal stewardship, and the need for a cohesive strategy to confront emerging geopolitical challenges underscores the imperative for a strategic re-evaluation.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Economy, Solidarity, Regional Integration, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe

195. EU Elections: National Democracy at Its Cornerstone?

Author:
Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On the eve of the European elections, those who keep a keen eye already know that a big turnaround of the European hemicycle is to be expected, with more than 50% being newly elected. In a recent article, the secondary place occupied by the European elections was highlighted; in Belgium they can even be said to only rank as tertiary due to its collision with national and regional elections on the same day. Although up to 8 member states will see both national and European elections in 2024, this very much gives a unique context to the EU elections in Belgium. Its conclusions however were not new: although the federal government presented itself as radically pro-European, currently holding the Council of the EU’s rotating Presidency, in Belgium as well as abroad, the European election is inherently still very much national in nature: the limited space that is left for it between the other campaigns becomes confused through both themes and politicians being presented at other levels than they (currently) sit.
Topic:
Economics, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

196. Fortifying Europe’s Semiconductor Ecosystem

Author:
Victor De Decker and Patrick Grady
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The chip manufacturing process, though intricate, is divided into three stages: design, production, and final assembly, testing, and packaging. Over the years, companies have started to specialise in a single aspect of one of these steps, making the global chip supply chain a complex web of interdependencies and a high degree of geographic concentration. Despite significant contributions to niches within this supply chain, Europe has historically lagged behind leading regions like the US and Asia in semiconductor production. This enduring gap underscores the need for strategic initiatives like the European Chips Act to bolster Europe’s position in the global semiconductor industry.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Supply Chains, Semiconductors, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe

197. Climate Justice and Human Mobility: Bridging EU Commitments and Policies

Author:
Alicia Scodanibbio
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The complex interplay between human mobility and climate change has emerged as a pressing global concern, with profound implications for social, economic, and environmental stability. This policy brief examines the European Union’s response to the climate-migration nexus, tracing its historical evolution and current challenges. It highlights the need for a human rights-centred approach to policymaking, emphasising the importance of addressing the structural inequalities and power imbalances inherent in climate-induced migration. By integrating climate justice principles, the EU can pave the way for a more inclusive and sustainable approach to the challenges posed by climate change and human mobility.
Topic:
European Union, Institutions, Mobility, and Climate Justice
Political Geography:
Europe

198. Figures on the Billiard Table: EU-China Dynamics in the Wake of the 2024 European Elections

Author:
Bart Dessein and Jasper Roctus
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
While still a powerhouse in its own right, Europe’s relative influence on the world stage has been diminishing over the last few decades. Data, for example, highlight a significant shift in global trade patterns away from the old continent. According to a recent Brookings’ calculation, South-South trade had by 2009, i.e., around the time of the global financial crisis, increased from 10.9 per cent to 25.0 per cent worldwide. South-South trade thus surpassed North-North trade for the first time in world history. Today, 35.0 per cent of global trade is accounted for by South-South merchandise trade, and just 25.0 per cent of global trade is North-North trade. One important factor in this is a surging China-Africa trade. With China’s bilateral trade with Africa rising from 2.7 billion dollar in 1990 to 209 billion dollar in 2022, China has now become Africa’s single largest trading partner.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, Trade, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

199. Looking towards the North: Belgium’s Role in the Arctic

Author:
Karen van Loon
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Arctic region has re-emerged as an area of geostrategic importance and is attracting increasing attention from Belgium. Accelerating climate change has altered living conditions in the region. The prospect of greater commercial activity and rapid technological advances, combined with growing interest from non-Arctic states, means that the region is increasingly connected to, and an integral part of, the rest of the world. As this process unfolds, the Arctic could impact the global balance of power and the conditions of rivalry and competition between the great powers. While this may occur peacefully, the possibility of sudden, rapid changes and unpredictable shocks are no guarantee for stability. The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet. Climate change is transforming the region and creating significant challenges in the areas of security and defence, access and navigation, energy, infrastructure, cooperation, and governance. As a result, states in the region and elsewhere are turning their attention to the Arctic. This has important implications for the region’s security and stability.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe, Belgium, and Arctic

200. China and Geopolitics as Ontology

Author:
Bart Dessein
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Human beings are storytellers; stories form the cultural framework that gives sense to their behavior and existence. Nations, likewise, “are guided to act in certain ways, and not others, on the basis of the projections, expectations, and memories derived from […] available social, public, and cultural narratives”. Denying a political culture the right to own its story is tantamount to denying that political culture, and the human beings who belong to it, their very right to existence. Territorial integrity and unity After its defeat against European powers in the Opium Wars (1839–1842, 1856–1860), the Manchu government of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1911) was forced into signing the ‘unequal treaties’ (bu pingdeng tiaoyue). This put both the political leadership of the Manchus and the value and effectiveness of the traditional Confucian political ideology to the question. From this, the aspiration developed to create a Han Chinese nation state that would be built on Western political, social, and economic concepts. When the Republic of China (Zhonghua minguo) decided to join World War I in 1917 (in practice, the Chinese participation to World War I consisted of a contingent of some 140,000 laborers – the so-called ‘Chinese Labor Corps’ – who were active in the logistics of the war in Belgium and France), this was partly because of the conviction that this would enable China to position itself as a modern nation state among equals. However, after the war, the 1919 Versailles Treaty stipulated that the territorial possessions Germany had acquired through the ‘unequal treaties’ would not be returned to China, but had to be transferred to Japan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, History, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia-Pacific