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11. Policy Lessons for Macroeconomic and Financial Crisis Management in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Rym Ayadi and Willem Pieter De Groen
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The 2007-09 global financial crisis led to a virtual collapse in economic activity and increased financial volatility worldwide. For the developing countries, the main channel of transmission has been a drop in external transactions, such as trade, financial and capital flows, and remittances. The southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC) have also faced declining economic activity, although there seems to be considerable variation in the relative magnitudes and timing of the decline. Most of the economies in the Mediterranean basin have had delayed but longer-lasting consequences as a result of the crisis, driven mostly by their endemic trade and investment ties with the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

12. Strong Governments, Weak Banks

Author:
Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
One of the more troublesome features of banks is that they still hold so little equity. In 2013 the capital and reserves of EU banks amounted to only 7.6% of total balance sheets. Well-run businesses outside the banking sector typically hold equity shares of 20%, 30% or more of their balances sheets. For good reasons; these well-run firms know that shocks can occur that could wipe out large parts of their balance sheets. Good business strategy thus leads these firms to hold sufficiently large buffers to avoid bankruptcy.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

13. The New European Framework for Managing Bank Crises

Author:
Stefano Micossi, Jacopo Carmassi, and Ginevra Bruzzone
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The European Commission proposal for a Regulation establishing a European Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) for banks is now under consideration before the European Parliament and the Council. The main principles and tools applicable for resolving a failing bank are contained in the June 2012 Commission proposal for a Directive on bank recovery and resolution (BRR), aimed at harmonising crisis management and resolution tools in EU member states, which is also under consideration by the European legislators. Any discussion of the new system must therefore be based on both proposals.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe

14. Pushing the Turbo Button: What Next for the Polishâ?"Romanian Strategic Partnership?

Author:
Stanislav Secrieru, Lukasz Kulesa, Agnes Nicolescu, and Anita Sobják
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
With the global economic downturn and its implications for the broader political and security architecture of the EU, the Polish—Romanian Strategic Partnership signed in 2009 is now ripe to take the positive relationship to a new level and to be further fleshed out. To this end, political coordination needs to be upgraded for promoting common interests, such as economic stability and solidarity within the Union, continued support to agriculture and cohesion policy as an important priority for EU funding, increasing the energy security of the region, engaging the neighbourhood, particularly Moldova and Ukraine, and maintaining the relevance of CSDP and of article 5 of the Washington Treaty high on the European agenda. The management of instability and protracted conflicts in their neighbourhood are also among their shared concerns. Translating these common priorities into concrete actions should aim at pushing the "turbo button" on the partnership, and help both countries achieve their goals.
Topic:
Security, Debt, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

15. Why the ECB should cut borrowing costs in periphery

Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The European Central Bank has postponed any plans to introduce targeted measures to reduce the cost of borrowing for small and medium-sized businesses in the credit-starved peripheral Eurozone economies. Given the widening gap between the lower costs of borrowing for companies in Germany and France and the higher costs in the periphery, we think that there is a strong case for the ECB to take action. Simulations using our Global Macroeconomic Model show that if half the tightening in credit conditions seen since 2008 were to be reversed within two years, Eurozone GDP would be 0.7% higher by the end of 2017 than under our baseline forecast. There would be over 400,000 fewer people unemployed. This would be particularly beneficial for peripheral Eurozone risk assets.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

16. Three Options for the EU: Assessing the EU's powers in a true economic and political union

Author:
Teija Tiilikainen
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Safeguarding the EU's unity in the long-term development of the EMU is currently one of the major challenges for the Union. The de facto adjustments made to the EU's economic and fiscal powers due to the economic and financial crisis, including the completion of the Banking Union, create pressures to address the treaty-based division of powers and to strengthen the democratic control of the powers executed by the Union. The need to back the EU's macroeconomic goals with fiscal instruments has been made evident by the economic crisis; the position of these instruments outside the common budget might become increasingly controversial. A further increase in economic solidarity (jointly guaranteed debt, taxation power) might jeopardize the EU's stability and democratic legitimacy if carried out in the current political and institutional framework. A system of constitutional and fiscal federalism would produce a more stable outcome, but would require major changes in the EU's democratic system and system of policy implementation, in its external policies and the way its constitutional powers are arranged.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

17. Towards a Deeper EMU: An assessment of political divisions within the EU

Author:
Juha Jokela
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Policymakers, observers and the media have referred to a vast number of divisions in crisis-torn Europe. The EU is divided between north and south or creditors and debtors. Some have emphasised the emerged division between anti-EU and pro- EU forces. Significantly, these divisions are also manifested within the eurozone, in the form of the current differences between the French and German views, and the increasing role of the populist movements in many euro countries. Yet others have highlighted the boundary between the eurozone and the rest of the EU, and suggested that the euro countries now form the core of the Union. Relatedly, some of the non-euro members are distancing themselves from the EU – most notably the UK – while many others aim to secure their influence in the Union, even if euro membership may have been put on the back burner.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

18. Geopolitical Shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Patrick Nopens
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Three major geopolitical events are putting the stability of the Eastern Mediterranean at risk. Most of the region is in a deep monetary and economic crisis. The Arab Spring is causing turmoil in the Levant and the Maghreb. Gas and oil discoveries, if not well managed, could further destabilise the region. At the same time, Russia and Turkey are staging a comeback. In the face of these challenges, the EU approaches the Greek sovereign debt crisis nearly exclusively from a financial and economic viewpoint. This brief argues that the EU has to develop a comprehensive strategy for the region, complementing its existing multilateral regional framework with bilateral agreements in order to secure its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:
Security, Debt, Oil, Regime Change, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Arabia

19. A case for adjusting fiscal consolidation in the eurozone

Author:
Xavier Vanden Bosch
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Fiscal consolidation is essential to ensure the sustainability of euro zone countries' public debt. However, as a principle, consolidation should not be pursued at a pace unnecessarily undermining growth in the short term. Repeated downward revisions of growth call for the use of the flexibility foreseen in the EU fiscal framework. The Commission should adapt the deadlines for fiscal correction to prevent excessive, pro-cyclical adjustment in 2013. In turn, adequate surveillance and coordination must ensure structural adjustments constitute the core of fiscal consolidation plans.
Topic:
Debt, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe

20. Bringing Stability to Europe: Why Europe needs a banking union

Author:
Erik Jones
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The European sovereign debt crisis is the result of capital flows across the single market. The danger that such capital flows could unleash market speculation was known from the start; indeed, the single currency was created to remove the threat of exchange rate instability. The problem is that the architects of the single currency did not consider the impact of capital market integration on the banking sector or on the relationship between banks and national governments. Once markets lost confidence in the security of their cross-border investments, investors began to pull back their capital and the internal market for financial services started to disintegrate. The creation of a banking union is part of the solution. However, the euro area also needs a common 'risk-free' asset to use as a safe haven in times of crisis.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe