Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: China

401. China will further open up but not due to US pressure

Author:: Dong Yan
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China will take measures to further open up to the outside world, Xi said in his highly-anticipated keynote address at the Boao Forum for Asia. But amid the escalating China-US trade conflict, some people have wrongly assumed Xi made the remarks with the Trump administration's accusations in mind. But a review of China's policies shows the country will deepen reform and opening-up because of its practical development needs, not because of any other country's demand or coercion. And more importantly, if the US insists on starting a trade war, China's further opening-up policies will not apply to any US enterprises. To people concerned about China's development, Xi's speech must have sounded inspiring, but not surprising, as opening-up has been a development theme for China for the past 40 years.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

402. The Drums of Trade War

Author:: Yu Yongding
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: With Chinese President Xi Jinping willing to make some concessions to the US, the world may yet avoid a trade war. But the reason Sino-American relations have soured is the Trump administration's worldview, not external balances. BEIJING – Last month, US President Donald Trump’s administration fired the opening salvo in what is quickly shaping up to become a full-blown trade war. While trade friction has long been an issue in the Sino-American relationship, few expected such an escalation, not least because economists widely view trade wars as damaging to all parties. So how did we get to this point, and can we turn back before it’s too late? ...... According to the USTR report, the problem is that the policy tools the Chinese government is using to achieve the goals of Made in China 2025 “are largely unprecedented, as other WTO members do not use them.” Moreover, they “include a wide array of state intervention and support designed to promote the development of Chinese industry in large part by restricting, taking advantage of, discriminating against, or otherwise creating disadvantages for foreign enterprises and their technologies, products, and services.” Yet the report fails to identify those interventions, which is not surprising, given that the State Council has not yet specified the policy tools it will use. And while America’s grievances regarding IPR issues are understandable, they could be addressed through the WTO. The fact that the Trump administration has taken the approach it has suggests that it does not merely want to ensure that China complies with existing rules; it wants to prevent China from catching up to the US technologically. This is obviously not acceptable to China.
Topic:: International Relations, Trade Wars, and WTO
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

403. Trade Disputes With China Shoot US In The Foot

Author:: Li Chunding
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: US-China trade friction has intensified, and one excuse that the Trump administration has used for trade protectionism against China is that China has been stealing US jobs, especially in the manufacturing sector. But bilateral trade has nothing to do with unemployment in the US. China itself or trade with China is merely scapegoats. The US is being a fault finder without realizing that the real reasons are internal, and the trade conflict will jeopardize manufacturing jobs on both sides.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Trade Wars, Trade, and Unemployment
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

404. China will further open up but not due to US pressure

Author:: Dong Yan
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China will take measures to further open up to the outside world, Xi said in his highly-anticipated keynote address at the Boao Forum for Asia. But amid the escalating China-US trade conflict, some people have wrongly assumed Xi made the remarks with the Trump administration's accusations in mind. But a review of China's policies shows the country will deepen reform and opening-up because of its practical development needs, not because of any other country's demand or coercion. As for the expansion of imports, China shifted its focus from exports to striking the right balance between imports and exports long ago, because the increase in imports will offer more choices to Chinese consumers and help improve their living standards, aside from giving foreign companies easier access to the Chinese market.
Topic:: Markets, Trade Wars, and Imports
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

405. Trump creating trouble for US firms

Author:: Su Qingyi
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China has urged World Trade Organization members to uphold the multilateral trading system, and oppose the use of Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 by the United States as it severely violates WTO rules. Three experts share their views with China Daily on the developments and consequences of the Donald Trump administration's protectionist moves. Generally speaking, how international trade would develop, now that China has been forced to take up the gauntlet thrown down by the Trump administration, mainly depends on the US. Once the US ceases fire and returns to the negotiating table, China would be more than happy to hold talks with it. With successful and fruitful negotiations, the ongoing trade conflict would be resolved. But if the US refuses to resolve the issue through dialogues, the trade conflict would most likely prolong to the agony of both sides.
Topic:: Trade Wars, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, North America, and United States of America

406. Digital Fiat Currency, SDR and New Cross-Border Payment System

Author:: Liu Dongmin and Song Shuang
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: Emerging economies have played more and more important roles in the world, and have become a significant drive in the reform of global financial governance to push it towards the direction of inclusiveness and resilience. As a key part of the international financial architecture, the dollarized cross-border payment system has not been changed correspondingly. Along with the rapid development of digital currency, the digital fiat currency (DFC) endorsed by national credit shows great potential in improving the current cross-border payment system. We propose that the new system based on DFC can be done in three patterns and the third one is most feasible: IMF-leading pattern, countries-leading pattern and the coexisting pattern. The new system will effectively reduce the transmission time and cost of cross-border payment services due to DFC’s peer-to-peer mode. Moreover, as the new system becomes more open, more flexible and more inclusive, all the developing countries will get fair and easy access to these services.
Topic:: Finance, Currency, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: China, Global Focus, and Global Markets

407. China should address downward pressure in 2018

Author:: Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: In 2017, the Chinese economy rebounded more significantly than expected. There is now general anticipation that growth in 2018 will fall slightly compared with that of 2017, but that it will remain stable at 6.5 percent or above. However, there are some factors that could lead to downward pressure on investment and consumption in 2018. First, investment growth has shown negative growth recently. Judging from the notional fixed-asset investment, the year-on-year growth in the first 11 months of 2017 was 7.2 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than in the same period of 2016. Due to the significant increase in producer price index (PPI) growth in 2017, the drop in real investment growth in 2017 is quite worrying. The real investment growth rate in the first three quarters of 2017 dropped to 2.2 percent year-on-year, while in the same period of 2016, this figure was 9.5 percent year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, the real investment rate in the third quarter of 2017 fell by 1.1 percent year-on-year, the first time that negative growth has been recorded in more than a decade.
Topic:: Economy, Economic Growth, and Investment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

408. Toward gender equity and women’s empowerment

Author:: Jean-Philippe Platteau
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: There are three main channels of women’s empowerment: legal or policy reforms, outside economic opportunities, and collective action. Legal (or policy) reforms are generally based on statutory laws that enact rules to be followed or prohibit certain practices. External economic opportunities for women represent alternative activities and places of working and living. Collective action brings women together to advance their collective interests.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Discrimination, Equality, and Empowerment
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Africa, China, Europe, Turkey, India, Asia, and Senegal

409. Inequality dynamics in China: Income growth for the poor, but more for the rich

Author:: Shi Li and Terry Sicular
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In the late 1970s, China embarked on a major programme of economic transition and reform. Since then, China’s economy has been transformed from a socialist planned economy to a predominately market economy characterized by a combination of state, private, and mixed forms of ownership. Over the past forty years, household incomes have risen six-fold, poverty has declined dramatically, and in recent years a new class of ultra-rich has emerged. These developments have naturally led to questions about inequality trends in China.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, Reform, Income Inequality, and Welfare
Political Geography:: China and Asia

410. Xi Jinping thought and China’s future foreign policy: Multipolarity with Chinese characteristics

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Xi Jinping Thought is aimed at guiding China both domestically and internationally. The goal is China’s national rejuvenation, which will break the global dominance of Western civilization. The revival must allegedly be led by a strong ideology guided by a strong and charismatic leader: Xi Jinping. Based on the ancient Chinese ideal of “great unity under Heaven”, Xi’s long-term goal for China is the creation of a “community of a common destiny for Mankind”. So far, this idea has no concrete manifestations on the global scale. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China is building a regional community of common destiny in Central and Southeast Asia. This is both an indirect challenge to the existing “Western” system, and a step in delineating China’s sphere of influence.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

411. Towards a “New Era” in China’s Great Power Diplomacy

Author:: Justyna Szczudlik
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In his first term, Chinese leader Xi Jinping abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s foreign policy dictum of “keeping a low profile.” But China’s activism in the middle of Xi’s first term was still more reactive than creative. However, in the last two years a new phase of diplomacy has emerged, in which all actions are subordinated to China’s unchanging strategic foreign policy goal of regaining its superpower status. This means that China strives to enforce change in the global system, which is dominated by the West.[1] The PRC is already trying to introduce new standards for international relations and promotes its values and principles more aggressively worldwide. There are already examples that Xi is effectively implementing his ideas.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

412. The Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification Mechanisms for Developing Countries under the UNFCCC: an analysis of the BASIC countries Biennial Update Reports

Author:: Alice Amorim
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:: This Policy Brief has three main objectives: Firstly, to present the basic international policy framework for the MRV for developing country Parties under the UNFCCC; Secondly, to provide a short comparative analysis of the latest version of the BURs presented by the countries that belong to the BASIC bloc, with an emphasis on the national MRV component of the Reports; Thirdly and lastly, to provide a set of policy recommendations for the BASIC countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Developing World, Regulation, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: China, India, South Africa, and Brazil

413. China-Africa Trade Developments and Impacts: Case of China-Zambia Relations

Author:: Caesar Cheelo, Pamela Nakamba-Kabaso, and Zhun Che
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: At a glance, China and Zambia – just like China and Africa – are strikingly different in many ways. They followed markedly different paths to development. They achieved significantly divergent trade and development results. However, they also have many striking commonalities, including a shared long history of developmental cooperation and relations. But, what are the lessons of China-Zambia relations for Zambia’s developmental goals and aspirations, including those in the Vision 2030? This study sought to undertake a critical comparative assessment of the trade (and other underpinning socioeconomic) developments in China, Africa and Zambia, with a view to understanding their impetus as well as their consequences, both positive and negative, for China- Africa and China -Zambia ties. It offers unique perspectives and understanding about China-Africa and China-Zambia relations. It takes a look at the history and present-day China- Africa and China-Zambia relations, considering the social and cultural ties that have defined cooperation as well as the political and diplomatic relations that have been forged over time. It unravels the trade and development implications of these relations for Zambia, Africa and China.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Zambia

414. A “Modest Proposal” To End The North Korean Nuclear Crisis: Trump Should Threaten Beijing With A Nuclearized Taiwan

Author:: Steven Holloway
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
Abstract:: As the North Korean nuclear crisis escalates, the media is filled with an endless rehashing of the old inutile options. Typically articles in Globe and Mail and others will restate all the traditional options from multilateral diplomacy to tougher sanctions to unilateral US military action but then recount the long acknowledged problems with each option. This paper suggests a simple but revolutionary diplomatic move. It agrees with the many commentators who have said that China is the only actor with the leverage to effectively halt or even roll back Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile program (or even to attempt regime change.) But unlike some of these analyses, I will argue that so far China has not had sufficient motivation to fully exercise its leverage on North Korea. Therefore the key is to develop a threat plausible enough to provide that motivation. If the US is to face a nuclear deterrent from North Korea, then China should face a similar deterrent and threat from Taiwan.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

415. Comparative Assessment of China and U.S. Policies to Meet Climate Change Targets

Author:: Xianchun Tan and Henry Lee
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: China and the United States together emit more than 40 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide (CO2) according to the latest available data.[1] Therefore any successful global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions must include meaningful contributions from both countries. Each country has started down this path by committing to reduce CO2 emissions and both have announced plans, policies, and programs to meet those commitments. However, the character of the carbon problem in each country is different and so while the plans, programs, and policies they are pursuing have some similarities, the emphasis is different.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

416. Pursuing a Low-Carbon Action Plan: The Case of Chongqing City

Author:: Xianchun Tan and Henry Lee
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: China has committed to stabilize its greenhouse gas emissions and increase the percent of non-fossil fuel energy to 20% by 2030. This goal will require significant programmatic and policy changes across all sectors of its economy. The challenge is how to make these changes without incurring measurable political and economic costs. Ideally governments will draw lessons from efforts in other countries, but the Chinese system is unique. Hence it has created its own learning experiences by investing in multiple pilot policies and programs at the provincial and city levels. Many of China’s cities are very large and include multiple districts, counties, and neighborhoods; and each one can serve as the locus of a separate low carbon pilot. These pilots are designed by local officials that are informed by guidelines from the central government. Thus, China often will have many “policy experiments” all taking place simultaneously. Lessons from these pilots are then used in the development of national and provincial programs and guidelines that shape future local initiatives across the country. These pilots are the ultimate example of “learning by doing.”
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

417. Getting the U.S.-China Relationship Right

Author:: Cory Gardner
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: The Project 2049 Institute is pleased to announce the publication of our Futuregram, “Getting the U.S.-China Relationship Right.” Senator Cory Gardner [R-CO], Chairman of the Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy, assesses the need for a long-term strategy in regards to the U.S.-China relationship. In addition, he details new legislation called the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), an approach that will put American interests first by reassuring our allies, deterring our adversaries, and securing U.S. leadership in the region for future generations.
Topic:: International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

418. Expanded ambitions, shrinking achievements: How China sees the global order

Author:: François Godement
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Xi Jinping took a bold stance at this year's Davos summit, claiming that China could be the leader and protector of global free trade. However, he fell short of pronouncing the same commitment to the international order. • While China finds little to criticise in globalisation, which has fuelled its rapid economic rise, it has an uneasy relationship with the international order, picking and choosing what parts of it to engage with. • China's governance model at home is fundamentally at odds with the liberal international order. Whether in climate talks, international arbitrations, or on the topic of open markets, China resists any parts of the order that infringe on its sovereignty. • Facing an increasingly interest-driven China, and a US in retreat from the international order, the EU must stand by its values if it wants to protect them. Faced with Donald Trump, Xi has sent a clear message about his country's commitment to internationalism. The EU should hold China to its word on this.
Topic:: International Relations and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: China

419. Rule of Law and Peace and Order in the South China Sea and the West Philippine Sea

Author:: Catherine S. Panaguiton
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: Chinese incursions in disputed waters in the SCS and WPS started from as early as the 1950s. However, they were scant and far in between. As decades passed, Chinese surveillance and incursions and the incidents between PRC, RP and Vietnam have increased in these areas. Rapid reclamation activities by PRC and the construction of installations on them (many of which are of a military nature)7, amidst protests by its neighbors (including the Philippines) and claimant states, have likewise increased the tensions.
Topic:: International Law and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: China and Philippines

420. An uphill struggle? Towards coordinated EU engagement with China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Author:: Stephan Klose, Astrid Pepermans, and Leia Wang
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: China’s 19th Party Congress unexpectedly amended the party’s constitution with a pledge to “pursue the Belt and Road Initiative”. This further elevates the status of president Xi’s heavily promoted foreign policy, which aims at creating trade and investment opportunities through the development of Eurasia’s continental and maritime infrastructure. As the implications of this policy are increasingly felt across Europe, following years of growing Chinese investments, so are the challenges it presents to Europe’s unity, prosperity and security. In light of these challenges a constructive engagement with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) constitutes an immense task for the European Union, whose position has been weakened by growing dissent among member states over the Union’s policy towards China.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and Europe

421. China-Zambia Relations

Author:: Caesar Cheelo and Pamela Nakamba-Kabaso
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: At a glance, China and Zambia – just like China and Africa – are strikingly different in many ways. They followed markedly different paths to development. They achieved significantly divergent trade and development results. However, they also have many striking commonalities, including a shared long history of developmental cooperation and relations. But, what are the lessons of China-Zambia relations for Zambia’s developmental goals and aspirations, including those in the Vision 2030?
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: China and Zambia

422. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the New Regional Geopolitics

Author:: Zahid Hussain
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The CPEC is a nodal part of China’s larger Belt and Road Initiative that envisages connecting China to Europe, the Middle East and Africa. As part of the project, Pakistan welcomes investments worth tens of billions of dollars for infrastructure and power sector development at a time when it desperately needs foreign investment to boost its fledgling economy. The addition of an expected 10,000 MW of electricity to the national grid by end 2018 will help overcome energy shortages and give a major boost to the economy. Similarly, the development of roads and other transport infrastructure will also improve connectivity inside the country as well with other neighboring countries in the future. The connectivity part of the project could actually become a game changer for Pakistan
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Pakistan and China

423. Minsk-Beijing: What Kind of Strategic Partnership?

Author:: Anaïs Marin
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Since they signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” agreement in 2013, military-industrial cooperation has intensified, thereby substantiating Belarusian hopes for closer ties with China, which are meant to counterbalance Minsk’s complex relations with Moscow and Brussels. In the eyes of its Chinese partners, however, Belarus seems to enjoy only limited appeal compared with other central and eastern European (CEE) countries, which are more advanced on the road to economic transformation and better integrated into the global system
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

424. New Order for Old Triangles? The Russia-China-India Matrix

Author:: Bobo Lo
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The influence these great powers exert, on themselves and others, is uneven and difficult to predict. Alongside a public consensus on a “democratic world order”, there are significant differences of perspective and sometimes conflicting interests. It is far from clear whether the Russia-China-India matrix can form the basis of an emerging network of cooperation, or whether its contradictions foreshadow an increasingly problematic engagement.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and India

425. Chinese Investors in Ethiopia: The Perfect Match?

Author:: Françoise Nicolas
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Ethiopia seeks to replicate the experience of East Asian countries such as Taiwan, Malaysia, or China and to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in order to accelerate the development of its manufacturing capacities (in particular through an ambitious industrial Park – IP - development program and the acceptance of foreign-owned Special Economic Zones - SEZs). On the other hand, China looks to export its development model (including SEZs), to delocalize its most labor-intensive activities, and to promote connectivity between Asia and the African continent. In this context, the Chinese government identified SEZ projects in 19 countries – including one in Ethiopia (the so-called Eastern Industry Zone - EIZ), located in Dukem some 30 kilometers southeast of Addis Ababa. Today, China is by far the leading foreign direct investor in the country. In addition to the Chinese-owned EIZ in Dukem, Chinese investors are also present in privately-run SEZs that are not part of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) strategy, as well as in government-led IPs and outside SEZs or IPs. Lastly Chinese firms are also extremely active in all kinds of infrastructure development thanks to Chinese funds.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and Ethiopia

426. Dialogue on U.S.-China Infrastructure Cooperation

Author:: Natalie Pretzer-Lin
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: On March 13, 2017, the EastWest Institute (EWI), in concert with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), convened the first ever conference on prospects for infrastructure cooperation between the United States and China. This conference, held in Beijing, brought together a U.S. delegation comprising investment and infrastructure experts—some of whom have advised the Trump administration on infrastructure—with Chinese counterparts from a number of private sector and state-owned enterprises. Discussion throughout the conference focused on the policy priorities of the Trump Administration; the Trump administration’s vision for the development of U.S. infrastructure; the current state of U.S.-China relations; and opportunities, challenges and recommendations for U.S.-China infrastructure cooperation.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and America

427. Everything You Think You Know About Coal in China Is Wrong

Author:: Melanie Hart, Luke Bassett, and Blaine Johnson
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: China’s energy markets send mixed signals about the nation’s policy intentions and emissions trajectory. Renewable energy analysts tend to focus on China’s massive renewable expansion and view the nation as a global clean energy leader; coal proponents and climate skeptics are more likely to focus on the number of coal plants in China—both in operation and under construction—and claim its climate rhetoric is more flash than substance. In December 2016, the Center for American Progress brought a group of energy experts to China to find out what is really happening. We visited multiple coal facilities—including a coal-to-liquids plant—and went nearly 200 meters down one of China’s largest coal mines to interview engineers, plant managers, and local government officials working at the front lines of coal in China. We found that the nation’s coal sector is undergoing a massive transformation that extends from the mines to the power plants, from Ordos to Shanghai. China is indeed going green. The nation is on track to overdeliver on the emissions reduction commitments it put forward under the Paris climate agreement, and making coal cleaner is an integral part of the process. From a climate perspective, the ideal scenario would be for China to shut down all of its coal-fired power plants and switch over to clean energy full stop. In reality, China’s energy economy is a massive ship that cannot turn on a dime. The shift toward renewables is happening: China’s Paris commitment includes a promise to install 800 gigawatts to 1,000 gigawatts of new renewable capacity by 2030, an amount equivalent to the capacity of the entire U.S. electricity system.1 While China and the United States have roughly the same land mass, however, China has 1.3 billion people to the United States’ 325 million.2 It needs an electricity system that is much larger, so adding the renewable equivalent of one entire U.S. electricity system is not enough to replace coal in the near to medium term. To bridge the gap, China is rolling out new technologies to drastically reduce local air pollution and climate emissions from the nation’s remaining coal plants.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Green Technology, and Coal
Political Geography:: China and Asia

428. Getting Real on Sanctions Is Key to Pressuring North Korea

Author:: Melanie Hart and Renee Ding
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: As the Trump administration’s approach to North Korea appears to shift back and forth between saber rattling and hints of diplomacy—with leading administration officials at times sending contradictory signals—it is clear that the administration needs an overarching strategy for addressing the North Korean threat. That strategy must include a tough, smart, and carefully targeted sanctions offensive. However, given President Donald Trump’s fiery exchanges with Kim Jong Un, and the drumbeat of White House statements and media opinion pieces discussing potentially imminent military action, one can be forgiven for having the impression that the United States has already run its best sanction plays against North Korea. In reality, that effort has only just begun, and if the United States can stay the course, it has the potential to turn this crisis around. Chinese diplomats often claim that it is pointless for China to cut off its economic ties with North Korea because Kim Jong Un would rather let his people starve than give up his nuclear program.1 They give an impression that there is no middle ground: If China pushes North Korea economically, the regime will resist until it collapses, triggering a massive security crisis on the Korean Peninsula.2 There is an equal amount of hand-wringing on the U.S. side. American observers tend to view the past decade of apparently ineffective U.N. action as evidence that sanctions are a dead end and military action will eventually become inevitable. In truth, there is a middle road on sanctions and it runs in two directions: through China and through North Korea’s gateways to the international financial system. The reality is that North Korea is much more exposed than many observers recognize, and the United States has only just begun to target the regime’s biggest weak spots. Instead of blowing hot and cold with China and exchanging blustery rhetoric with North Korea—two approaches that give China maneuvering room to avoid action—the United States needs to double down on a strategy that deals an economic blow against North Korea on par with the blow that brought Iran to the negotiation table in 2013.3
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Sanctions, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

429. A Responsible Approach to North Korea

Author:: Kelly Magsamen, Melanie Hart, Michael Fuchs, and Vikram Singh
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Kim Jong Un’s reckless and illegal nuclear and missile programs pose a serious and growing threat to U.S. national security and the security of U.S. allies. His refusal to abide by U.N. Security Council resolutions has rallied the world against him. Unfortunately, President Donald Trump is bucking this international consensus with his reckless and contradictory statements. This dynamic is both dangerous and counterproductive; it increases the risk of miscalculation on the Korean Peninsula and squanders an opportunity to press North Korea back into a diplomatic process. There are no perfect solutions to the challenge North Korea poses. The country has made rapid progress on nuclear weapons that it deems critical to its survival. Yet the United States has deterred and contained North Korea for decades, preventing another devastating war on the peninsula. To prevent war and get back to diplomacy aimed at addressing North Korea’s threats, the United States needs a more responsible approach: aggressive diplomacy with a strong team; active U.S. efforts to reassure allies of America’s commitment to their security and to smart deterrence of North Korea; and concrete steps to isolate North Korea from the global economy. This policy approach could reduce the chances of unintended conflict, protect U.S. national security interests, and open a pathway to curb North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

430. No longer a new kid on the block – China in the Middle East

Author:: James Moran
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Given China’s growing role in the complex security dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa, the EU should intensify its dialogue and, where interests coincide, joint action with Beijing. Last month’s Chinese Communist Party Congress, with its stress on President Xi Jinping’s strong leadership at home and abroad, has sparked much discussion on how the rest of the world, not least the EU, should deal with a new political behemoth in their backyards. There is nothing new, of course, about China’s economic prowess. For some time now, it has been a major, if not indeed the, prime investor and trader in numerous countries around the world. But with power vacuums appearing in the wake of the Trump administration’s neo-isolationism, and following China’s military-led expansion in the South China Sea, could it be that Beijing is about to become more of a global rule-maker, rather than a rule-taker in international security? The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is an interesting, and for Europeans, sensitive case in point. And there is some evidence that China is moving beyond its traditional interest in the stability of Gulf oil and gas supplies, and raising its profile in the region.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Asia

431. Growth, Innovation and COP 21: The Case for New Investment In Innovation Infrastructure

Author:: Céline Bak
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: On the way to Washington, DC, for a September 2015 visit, Chinese President Xi Jinping stopped in Seattle, WA, to sign an agreement aimed at combatting climate change by increasing the business ties between Chinese and US clean technology companies (South China News 2015). Five US states signed the agreement on commerce between China and clean-tech businesses from California, Iowa, Michigan, Oregon and Washington. On the same day, Bill Gates’s energy company, TerraPower, signed an agreement with the China National Nuclear Corporation for joint cooperation on next-generation renewable and fusion nuclear power. In early 2015, Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund invested in General Fusion, a Canadian company based in Vancouver, to advance its energy innovation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: China

432. Beyond Manufacturing: Developing the Service Sector to Drive Growth in the PRC

Author:: Wei Wang, Gemma Estrada, Jurgen Conrad, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As demand from global markets declines, slowing exports of manufactured goods from the People's Republic of China means the country must increasingly rely on domestic markets for growth. Unlike manufactured goods, services—those "intangible" products that include everything from transportation to scientific research to real estate services—are geared more toward domestic markets. Services, then, will be key to the rebalancing process. However, while the service sector has grown rapidly in the PRC, it continues to lag behind other countries at similar stages of development. In addition, the sector is dominated by traditional low-end types of services, rather than knowledge-intensive services. Heavy regulatory burdens, barriers to trade in services, and an unfavorable policy environment have been major obstacles to upgrading the sector and improving its competitiveness. Policy reform should focus on strengthening competition to raise productivity, with the goal of increasing not only the number of jobs and contribution to GDP, but also of positioning the service sector to compete internationally and spur export growth.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, Reform, and GDP
Political Geography:: China

433. Mega-FTAs and the Trade-Security Nexus: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

Author:: Vinod K. Aggarwal
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The rise of a multiplicity of diverse bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) has led countries to pursue mega-FTAs to manage the growing complexity of global trade arrangements. The US and China are promoting rival accords: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would encompass 800 million people and almost 40 percent of global GDP, is a centerpiece of the Obama Asia Pacific strategy. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) would account for 30 percent of global GDP, with a population of over three billion people, creating the largest FTA in the world. TPP advocates assert that it will strengthen the US’ strategic role in the region, in part by countering China’s membership in the RCEP. These claims, made in response to growing skepticism in the United States about the value of liberalized trade, overemphasize the TPP’s strategic value. At the same time, projecting the economic impact of the TPP is thorny, given the deal’s scope and the diversity of countries involved.
Political Geography:: China

434. Beyond Manufacturing: Developing the Service Sector to Drive Growth in the PRC

Author:: Wei Wang, Gemma Estrada, Jurgen Conrad, Sang-Hyo Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As demand from global markets declines, slowing exports of manufactured goods from the People's Republic of China means the country must increasingly rely on domestic markets for growth. Unlike manufactured goods, services—those "intangible" products that include everything from transportation to scientific research to real estate services—are geared more toward domestic markets. Services, then, will be key to the rebalancing process. However, while the service sector has grown rapidly in the PRC, it continues to lag behind other countries at similar stages of development. In addition, the sector is dominated by traditional low-end types of services, rather than knowledge-intensive services. Heavy regulatory burdens, barriers to trade in services, and an unfavorable policy environment have been major obstacles to upgrading the sector and improving its competitiveness. Policy reform should focus on strengthening competition to raise productivity, with the goal of increasing not only the number of jobs and contribution to GDP, but also of positioning the service sector to compete internationally and spur export growth.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Reform, and GDP
Political Geography:: China

435. The Incoming Trump Administration

Author:: Eric Lerhe
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
Abstract:: The election of President Trump provoked considerable disarray. His pre-election warning that states not meeting NATO defence spending targets might be denied US protection has resulted in a member of the Bundestag’s Committee of Foreign Affairs arguing for a non-US nuclear deterrent. Lithuania’s Foreign Minister warned of a Russian provocation against the Baltic states timed to occur prior to the President-elect taking office. Trump's parallel calls for greater Korean and Japanese military contributions, including his readiness to accept their nuclear self-arming, had the Tokyobased Diplomat predicting region-wide mayhem ranging from the greater potential for climatebased conflict to the increased probability of China opening hostilities with Taiwan. That at least one election declaration – a commitment to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership – may have stemmed from an astonishing lack of understanding was also of concern: in debate with US Senator Paul Ryan, the President-elect seemed to be criticizing the TPP in part because he thought China was included. Closer to home, Trump’s threat to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement provoked calls within Canada to counter this by increasing its own defence spending to the 2% of GDP NATO target and scrapping supply management.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Elections, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

436. China and Russia: Gaming the West

Author:: Mathieu Duchâtel and François Godement
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: In September 2016, Russia held joint naval manoeuvres in the South China Sea with China, bringing some of its best ships to the party. Two weeks later, China shied away from joining Russia in a veto of yet another Western resolution on Syria at the UN. The discrepancy sums up the extent and the limits of the strategic convergence between both countries. The “axis of convenience” between China and Russia has, without question, grown larger. And the positive dynamics pushing cooperation forward are largely economic. But there is also a negative dynamic, coming from the West. Both countries have a perception of regime insecurity that emerges from the international promotion of democracy, and the attractiveness of corruption-free and comparably safe Western societies for individuals, be they Chinese or Russian.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and China

437. Terror overseas: understanding China’s evolving counter-terror strategy

Author:: Mathieu Duchâtel
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: International terrorism has emerged in recent years as a direct threat to Chinese nationals living overseas. As China's footprint becomes increasingly global its exposure to the risk of terror attacks has increased too. China’s approach to international terrorism is becoming militarised. This trend has the potential to accelerate if Chinese nationals are victims of new attacks overseas. Although China is an active and responsible player in the UN with clearly expressed priorities and an interest in protecting its citizens overseas, it is not taking a strong role in leading and shaping the UN’s counter-terrorism agenda. The EU should take stock of the ongoing transformation of China’s approach to explore a modest upgrade of its current policy of cautious engagement. When engaging with China the EU should make clear that an overly politicised approach will be an obstacle to cooperation, and be upfront in setting the conditions of cooperation. The EU should not underestimate what China has to offer but shouldn't make big compromises either.
Topic:: Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:: China

438. China’s Future SSBN Command and Control Structure

Author:: David C. Logan
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China is developing its first credible sea-based nuclear forces. This emergent nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) force will pose unique challenges to a country that has favored tightly centralized control over its nuclear deterrent. The choices China makes about SSBN command and control will have important implications for strategic stability. Despite claims that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force will be responsible for all Chinese nuclear forces, Chinese SSBNs currently appear to be under the control of the PLA Navy. However, China may choose to revise its command and control structures as its SSBNs begin armed deterrent patrols. There are three broad command and control models, allocating varying degrees of authority to the PLA Navy or the Rocket Force. China’s decisions about SSBN command and control will be mediated by operational, bureaucratic, and political considerations. A hybrid approach to command and control, with authority divided between the navy and the Rocket Force, would be most conducive to supporting strategic stability.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

439. China's Goldwater-Nichols? Assessing PLA Organizational Reforms

Author:: Philip C. Saunders and Joel Wuthnow
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is undertaking its most significant restructuring since 1949, including changes to all of the PLA’s main organizational pillars—the Central Military Commission, services, and theaters. The reforms are modeled partly on the U.S. military structure, where combatant commanders lead operations and the services train and equip troops. However, the PLA remains a Leninist military responsible for defending Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule. The reforms aim to tighten CCP supervision over a force seen as corrupt and unaccountable and to enhance the PLA’s ability to conduct joint operations across multiple domains. Theater commanders will be able to develop force packages drawn from all the services, and a new Strategic Support Force will provide C4ISR support. The reforms will create a short term organizational disruption, but may enable more effective joint war fighting over the long term. The PLA will have to overcome significant obstacles such as continued ground force dominance and inter-service rivalry to make the reforms succeed.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

440. Posing Problems without an Alliance: China-Iran Relations after the Nuclear Deal

Author:: Joel Wuthnow
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China is poised to increase economic and diplomatic cooperation with Iran as a result of sanctions relief under the recent Iran nuclear deal, though a close geopolitical alignment between the two states is unlikely. Sino-Iranian relations will remain limited by several enduring constraints, including China’s desire for positive ties with other states, its pursuit of energy diversification, and its need for regional stability. Renewed Chinese arms sales to Iran could constitute an emerging challenge for the United States. This could increase Iran’s antiaccess/ area-denial threat to U.S. military forces and create proliferation risks. U.S. officials should press Chinese interlocutors to avoid exporting advanced weapons, which could embolden Iran to conduct a more brazen foreign policy that would threaten China’s fundamental need for regional stability
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and Iran

441. Security Concerns about Chinese Investments: Nuclear Power and Telecommunications

Author:: Yang Jiang, Aki Tonami, and Adam Moe Fejerskov
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: China actively seeks to expand its overseas investment in critical infrastructure. This involvement makes host countries uneasy especially in the West, even though financial benefits sometimes override broader national interests and security issues. China’s attempts to invest in overseas critical infra- structure, defined as infrastructure closely related to sovereignty and national security, has become a sensitive issue to host country governments parti- cularly in the West. They fear that Chinese investment in nuclear and telecommunications infrastructures entails consequences for nuclear security and safety and information security respectively. This policy brief provides an overview of how various countries have received Chinese interest in nuclear power and telecommunications.
Topic:: International Political Economy, International Security, Nuclear Power, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

442. EU trade diplomacy and the cold peace in cross-Strait relations

Author:: Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Today’s uncertainty in cross-Strait relations is not without consequence for third parties that maintain ties with both China and Taiwan. To what extent does (and should) the situation also impact on EU’s trade diplomacy with both sides? This policy brief argues that under today’s circumstances, the cold peace in cross-Strait relations is reason to tread carefully — and to stay on course. The May 2016 inauguration of the Taiwanese government led by Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leader Tsai Ing-wen placed a big question mark over the future of cross-Strait relations. Within weeks, Beijing had unilaterally imposed a freeze on (semi-)official talks until the new Taiwanese President acknowledges the so-called 1992 Consensus. While confirming its ‘one China’ policy, the EU may contribute to the stability of cross-Strait relations by being a partner in China’s economic reform and by negotiating EU–China and EU–Taiwan investment agreements in parallel. In this policy brief author Maaike Okano-Heijmans builds on discussions during the 13th Symposium on ‘Sino–EU Relations and the Taiwan Question’, which was held in Shanghai from 9–11 October 2016 and in Taipei from 12–14 October 2016. These second-track dialogues were supported by the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, the Shanghai Institute of International Studies and the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and European Union

443. Major developments in the US and China and US-China Relations Amidst Turmoil in the International Order (US-China Project)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The rise of emerging countries, above all the precipitous rise of China, is a key driving force behind changes in international relations on a global scope. This does not mean, however, that China is taking over the reins of “hegemony” from the US and building a new international order centered on China and other emerging countries, i.e., that a clear-cut “power transition” is underway.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and America

444. Sub-project II: China’s Domestic Situation and Foreign Policy (China Study Group)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: Among the most significant variables defining trends in the international order and the international environment surrounding Japan are domestic circumstances in China and its foreign policies prescribed by them. China ranks highest among the emerging powers that have rapidly increased their presence within the international community over a short period and is, from Japan’s standpoint, simultaneously a real threat to Japanese security in the East China Sea and Japan’s largest trading partner.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

445. Sub-project III: US-China Relations and International Relations Involving the US and China (US-China Relations Study Group)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: Two of the most important variables influencing trends within the international order are the domestic circumstances within the US and China and the foreign policy shifts stemming therefrom. An element of equal or perhaps even greater significance is the nature of relations between these two major powers.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and America

446. China’s Hidden Obstacles to Socioeconomic Rebalancing

Author:: Boy Lüthje and Christopher A. McNally
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The global financial crisis of 2008-09 led to a policy consensus in China that its socioeconomic development model needed rebalancing. China's rapid development has been based on extensive growth reliant on exports, low wages, environmental exploitation, and the manufacturing of cheap products. China's current plans identify paths to economic rebalancing through intensive growth driven by rising investment in new technologies and manufacturing processes, improved wages and skills, and improved worker and environmental protections. Two industries, automotive and information technology, demonstrate the experience of and opportunities for rebalancing. Both offer improved employment conditions with better wages, but continue to incorporate large swaths of low-wage employment with little protection for workers' health and the environment. Economic rebalancing in China, therefore, has so far only appeared in pockets. Institutional safeguards for wages and labor standards remain constrained by powerful alliances among multinational corporations, Chinese state-owned/private enterprises, and the Chinese state.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

447. The ASEAN Economic Community: What Stands in the Way?

Author:: Jon Dorsch
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: At the end of 2015 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will announce the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). In theory, this agreement should produce an association-wide economic integration. However, following the announcement, and for the foreseeable future, ASEAN member states will continue in significantly less than full regional economic integration. Why? Some observers believe that the AEC plans involve an "overly ambitious timeline and too many ill-thought-out initiatives." Others point to ASEAN's traditional aversion to legally binding agreements. While progress has been made in reducing or eliminating intra-ASEAN trade tariffs, substantial non-tariff barriers to trade persist. However, for most member states, the ASEAN market is relatively small while external markets, especially China, are growing rapidly. Given this outward-orientation for ASEAN trade, is the lack of an unhindered regional market really a problem?
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Asia

448. Challenges for the PLAN in the Western Pacific: Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:: Tetsuo Kotani
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: China is further developing its anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, particularly its submarine fleet and cruise missiles launched from land-based aircraft, to defeat an approaching enemy fleet. In addition to developing A2/AD capabilities, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is making concerted efforts to become a blue water navy. However, the PLAN faces some difficult challenges—both geographical and operational—in becoming an ocean-going navy. This paper considers the challenges the PLAN faces in the open ocean and the implications of these challenges for U.S.-Japan alliance cooperation.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America

449. Chinese Religious Regulations in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region: A Veiled Threat to Turkic Muslims?

Author:: Julia Famularo
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: Radical Islam constitutes a growing challenge in the immediate periphery of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and beyond. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders are placing emphasis on “managing religion according to the rule of law,” and the Xinjiang People’s Congress has promulgated comprehensive new religious affairs regulations. Yet, are these regulations more likely to reduce or heighten ethno-religious tensions in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR)? This article examines the most important aspects of these new regulations, and how they will affect how the CCP manages religious affairs.
Topic:: Human Rights, Islam, Religion, Minorities, and Repression
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Xinjiang

450. The Iran Nuclear Deal: A Monumental Mistake by the Obama Administration or a New Beginning?

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The nuclear deal reached between Iran and the P5+1, China, France, Germany, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom, will be scrutinized by diplomats, military experts and politicians for months and years to come. Statesmen and politicians will interpret the deal differently and each will vie to use the argument which suites the audience and the domestic base she/he represents. However, the psychological, economic, political, and military implications of the deal on the United States, Europe and many Middle Eastern countries will be monumental. The deal will impact the balance of power in the Middle East and will change its dynamics forever, change the dynamics of the energy markets in Europe, Thus creating tension between Russia and Europe, and will ignite a fierce security debate between Democrats and Republicans in the United States on the culture of regime change and the use of force. The deal will bring the subject of regime change to the political forefront in the US and will raise a serious question on whether the use of force is the only effective mechanism to change the behavior of states in order to achieve favorable outcomes. Both Republicans and Democrats used force as a tool for regime change, however the Obama administration is a advocating for new means: diplomacy.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Regime Change, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany

451. The Challenges for Chinese FDI in Europe

Author:: Louis Brennan
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: As the motives driving China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) have expanded from resource - seeking to asset - and market - seeking, Chinese FDI in Europe has grown rapidly. Although Europe, with its advanced technologies and know - how, brands and sophisticated markets, represents an attractive destination for asset - seeking and market - seeking Chinese FDI, it has also posed challenges for Chinese investors. They arise for a number of reasons: the divergent characteristics of the host region, home country liability of origin, as well as China’s OFDI regulation and the capabilities of the investing enterprises.
Political Geography:: China and Europe

452. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, investor-state dispute settlement and China

Author:: Axel Berger and Lauge N. kovgaard Poulsen
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The prospect of including investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) into the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has produced a polarizing debate in the Europe an Union (EU). Critics have argued that this adjudication mechanism is unnecessary in TTIP as United States (US) investors can expect fair treatment in EU courts and vice versa.
Political Geography:: China

453. Africa rising out of itself: The growth of intra-African FDI

Author:: Ilan Strauss and Ralf Krüger
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Over the last decade Africa has attracted an increasing share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. China and other emerging markets are usually highlighted as important sources of this increase — and they are. However, perhaps the most significant contributor has been Africa itself.
Political Geography:: Africa and China

454. How China Can Help Lead a Global Transition to Clean Energy

Author:: Alvin Lin, Luan Dong, and Yang Fuqiang
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: China’s coal consumption fell marginally in 2014, the first such drop this century, in large part as a result of its policies to address its severe air pollution, develop renewable and alternative energy, and transition its economy away from heavy industry. China should take advantage of its current circumstances to adopt an aggressive national coal consumption cap target and policy to peak its coal consumption as soon as possible, no later than its next Five Year Plan (2016–2020), so that it can peak its CO2 emissions by 2025. It can achieve this target by building upon its existing achievements in developing clean energy such as wind and solar power, and by prioritizing renewable energy development over coal in its western expansion. China can help lead a transition to clean energy that will contribute greatly to global efforts to keep warming to no more than 2°C, and can serve as a model for other developing countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: China

455. Overcoming Barriers to U.S.-China Cooperation

Author:: Maral Noori, Daniel Jasper, and Jason Tower
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: In 2011, U.S. president Barack Obama announced plans to "pivot" toward Asia. In 2012, Chinese president Xi Jinping expressed his hope for "a new type of relationship" with the United States. A lack of strategic trust between the two countries, however, prevents critically needed productive cooperation. This Peace Brief addresses the misunderstandings behind this mistrust and a possible way to move beyond them.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States and China

456. Service Sector Reform in China

Author:: Ryan Rutkowski
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Faced with slowing economic growth, Chinese policymakers now recognize that the service sector of the economy—transportation, communications, finance, and health care—could spur economic activity and employment. The catch is that China must reform these and other areas to accomplish this goal. Chinese leaders have outlined an ambitious agenda for reform, but myriad vested interests could slow or block their plans. This Policy Brief evaluates the steps taken so far and the difficulties that lie ahead in implementing them. If policymakers fail to reform and open up the service sector, they run the risk of seriously impairing China's growth prospects.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: China

457. Overcoming Barriers to U.S.-China Cooperation

Author:: Maral Noori, Daniel Jasper, and Jason Tower
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In 2011, U.S. president Barack Obama announced plans to "pivot" toward Asia. In 2012, Chinese president Xi Jinping expressed his hope for "a new type of relationship" with the United States. A lack of strategic trust between the two countries, however, prevents critically needed productive cooperation. This Peace Brief addresses the misunderstandings behind this mistrust and a possible way to move beyond them.
Topic:: International Relations, Communism, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States and China

458. An Assessment of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement

Author:: Jeffrey Schott, Eujiin Jung, and Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Of all the free trade agreements (FTAs) concluded by Korea with its major trading partners since the turn of the century, the Korea-China FTA may be the largest in trade terms. It is, however, far from the best in terms of the depth of liberalization and the scope of obligations on trade and investment policies. Korea and China agreed to liberalize a large share of bilateral trade within 20 years, but both sides incorporated extensive exceptions to basic tariff reforms and deferred important market access negotiations on services and investment for several years. Political interests trumped economic objectives, and the negotiated outcome cut too many corners to achieve such a comprehensive result. The limited outcome in the Korea-China talks has two clear implications for economic integration among the northeast Asian countries. First, prospects for the ongoing China-Japan-Korea talks will be limited and unlikely to exceed the Korea-China outcome. Second, Korea and Japan need to strengthen their bilateral leg of the northeast Asian trilateral and the best way is by negotiating a deal in the context of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Korea

459. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2015

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The latest semiannual fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) estimates find that the US dollar is now overvalued by about 10 percent, comparable to levels in 2008 through early 2010 and again in 2011. Unlike then, the current strong dollar does not reflect a weak renminbi kept undervalued by major exchange rate intervention by China. Instead, China's current account surplus has fallen sharply relative to GDP, and its recent intervention has been to prevent excessive depreciation rather than to prevent appreciation. Additionally, declines in the real effective exchange rates (REERs) for major emerging-market economies and resource-based advanced economies, driven by falling commodity prices in recent months, have strengthened the dollar. Recent increases in the REERs for the euro area and Japan have removed their modest undervaluation identified in the last FEERs estimates in May, and the Chinese renminbi remains consistent with its FEER. The dollar's rise by nearly 15 percent in real effective terms over the past two years could impose a drag of nearly one-half percent annually on US demand growth over the next five years. As the Federal Reserve moves to normalize US monetary policy, it may need to consider a gentler rise in interest rates than it might otherwise have pursued, both to temper possible further strengthening of the dollar in response to higher interest rates and to help offset the demand compression from falling net export
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and GDP
Political Geography:: United States and China

460. Why China Won't Abandon Its Nuclear Strategy of Assured Retaliation

Author:: Fiona S. Cunningham and M. Taylor Fravel
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Whether China will abandon its long-standing nuclear strategy of assured retaliation for a first-use posture will be a critical factor in U.S.-China strategic stability. In recent years, the United States has been developing strategic capabilities such as missile defenses and conventional long-range strike capabilities that could reduce the effectiveness of China's deterrent. Writings by Chinese strategists and analysts, however, indicate that China is unlikely to abandon its current nuclear strategy.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and East Asia

461. Much Ado about Nothing? The RMB's Inclusion in the SDR Basket

Author:: Hongying Wang
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The International Monetary Fund recently concluded its quinquennial review of the composition of the Special Drawing Right (SDR), accepting the Chinese currency into the SDR basket alongside four major international currencies — the US dollar, the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen. The Chinese government has spent a great deal of energy and political capital to achieve this outcome. This policy paper explains China’s interest in this seemingly exotic and technical pursuit, identifying the political and economic motivations underlying this initiative.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, International Monetary Fund, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China

462. Balancing Without Containment: An American Strategy for Managing China

Author:: Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: China is poised to become a major strategic rival to the United States. Whether or not Beijing intends to challenge Washington's primacy, its economic boom and growing national ambitions make competition inevitable. And as China rises, American power will diminish in relative terms, threatening the foundations of the U.S.-backed global order that has engendered unprecedented prosperity worldwide. To avoid this costly outcome, Washington needs a novel strategy to balance China without containing it.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Development, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, Washington, Beijing, and Asia

463. Rocky Road to a Level Playing Field in EU–China Investment and Trade Relations

Author:: Damian Wnukowski and Artur Gradziuk
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: At the beginning of 2014, the European Union and China launched negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty that would launch the next stage in economic relations between them. Although both approach numerous issues differently, they have also strong incentives to seek compromise. Reaching an agreement on investment topics could be a significant step towards creating a favourable environment for cooperation and resolving most contentious sticking points in bilateral relations in the near future. It could also become a template for future similar EU agreements.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, China, and European Union
Political Geography:: China and European Union

464. Japan's New Security Policy: Breaking Away from the Post–War Regime?

Author:: Bart Gaens
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: China is challenging the regional balance of power in East Asia through a military buildup and an increasingly assertive foreign policy. The US is forced to find the right balance between cooperating with China while benefiting from its economic rise, and countering China's regional reach by carrying out its self-declared "pivot" to Asia in spite of domestic and budgetary constraints. With just over one year in office, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has received wide domestic support for his ambitious plans to revive Japan's economy through his threefold policy of Abenomics. At the same time, however, he has implemented a number of significant policies in the defence and security sphere. In response to China's military rise, the Abe administration increased and recalibrated the defence budget. Furthermore, in order to reinforce the alliance with the US, the government approved the creation of a US-style National Security Council, passed a Secrecy Bill, and aims to reverse Japan's self-imposed ban on exercising the right to collective self-defence. Under the banner of "proactive pacifism", the Abe cabinet is seizing the momentum caused by the changing regional power dynamics in order to edge closer towards "breaking away from the postwar regime". A proposed revision of Japan's constitution, unchanged since 1947, symbolizes the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) objective to bring about a more autonomous role for Japan both in the security alliance with the US and as an international actor.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

465. British Foreign Policy in an Unequal World

Author:: Edmund Cairns
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The UK needs a safe world in which to trade and invest, and to be free from the security threats caused by conflicts or fragile states. Yet spiralling inequality and climate change, among many other factors, threaten to create a more dangerous, unequal world. As the continuing tragedy in Syria shows, the world's old and new powers have not yet found a way to unite to end conflicts. The age of interventions, such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan, is over. But a new rule-based world in which China, India, and others unite with Western powers to protect civilians and end conflicts has not yet come into being. Whoever wins the 2015 UK general election, the greatest test for UK foreign policy will be how much it can do to help build that world.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Poverty, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Britain, China, Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, India, and Syria

466. Regional concentration of FDI involves trade-offs in post-reform India

Author:: Peter Nunnenkamp, Wan-Hsin Liu, and Frank Bickenbach
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: P. Chidambaram, India's Minister of Finance, claimed that "FDI worked wonders in China and can do so in India." However, China's example may also point to the limitations of foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization in promoting the host country's economic development. FDI in China is heavily concentrated in the coastal areas, and previous studies have suggested that this has contributed to the increasing disparity in regional income and growth since the late 1970s.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, and India

467. The China-United States BIT negotiations: A Chinese perspective

Author:: Sheng Zhang
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The China-US bilateral investment treaty (BIT) negotiations have attracted attention due to the relative size and weight of both economies. Despite broad consensus about the importance of such a treaty, there is considerable debate about its shape and content. The debate is reflected in two recent Columbia FDI Perspectives. Donnelly argued that a China-US BIT should be modeled on the US Model BIT without "splitting the difference between Chinese and US positions", and that the possibility of meaningful BIT negotiations are "really up to China at this point".
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Direct Investment, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, and Colombia

468. Chinese Dream, Others' Nightmare? Despite superficial similarities, China is not destined to follow Russia's path to rogue-dom

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Although China's statements about the Ukrainian crisis have been weighed very carefully, there are concerns that China is drawing lessons such as 'might is right' and 'geopolitics is all that matters' from the crisis. The hawks in China have adopted a similar tone to that of the Kremlin, with both wishing to see a relatively diminished Western influence in the international arena. The Chinese Dream is all about national rejuvenation, which entails redressing past grievances. Nevertheless, the Dream need not turn into a nightmare for other powers. The increase in China's military budget does not indicate growing ambitions of a global power projection. China's primary concern remains stability both within and without its borders.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Ukraine, and Asia

469. China's Long March Toward Economic Rebalancing

Author:: Hongying Wang
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: China's role in the global imbalance is closely linked to its domestic imbalance. Chinese policy makers have long been aware of the dual imbalance and the imperative to shift to economic growth driven by domestic consumption. They have taken limited steps in changing the development model, but political obstacles have slowed the pace of reform. The new leadership seems serious about deepening economic reform despite political resistance, but without political reform, the prospect of success remains dim.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

470. China's energy demands: are they reshaping the world?

Author:: Gerald Stang
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: In 2012, China was the world's seventh biggest producer of natural gas, the fourth largest oil producer, and the biggest producer of hydroelectricity. It also produced almost as much coal as the rest of the world combined. Still, this is not enough. China's domestic energy bounty has long allowed the country to keep its overall import dependency relatively low but, as the country's economy continues to boom, its import dependency is growing quickly, particularly with regard to oil.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: China and Asia

471. China needs to complement its "going-out" policy with a "going-in" strategy

Author:: Karl P. Sauvant and Victor Z. Chen
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: China's rising outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) faces rising skepticism abroad. This is partly the result of the leading role of state-owned enterprises in her OFDI (and the fear that it serves non-commercial purposes), the speed with which this investment has grown, the negative image of the home country in some quarters, and the challenges it poses to established competitors. Moreover, Chinese multinational enterprises (MNEs) may not always keep in mind that host countries see FDI as a tool to advance their own development and hence seek maximum benefits from it.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

472. Cyber technology at war: Challenges to international regulations

Author:: Kenneth B. Moss
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Cyber technology could change not only the conduct of war itself; it could alter the way governments and others initiate hostilities and war. Existing international laws need to be reviewed to make sure they address the capabilities and accountability of cyber operations in conflict and war, and the participation of China, Russia and other states in negotiations is critical.
Topic:: International Law and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Russia and China

473. South Korea and China: A Strategic Partnership in the Making

Author:: Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Seoul in July 2014 shows how the relations between China and South Korea have taken center stage in North- East Asia. Both countries are building up a growing strategic partnership, as a result of emerging cross-interests in the region and robust trade relations. This dynamic underlines the dilemma Seoul faces in maintaining a strong military alliance with the United States, while turning increasingly toward China as its core partner for both its economic development and its North Korea policy.
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Northeast Asia

474. The consensus on Mali and international conflict management in a multipolar world

Author:: Xenia Avezov and Timo Smit
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The transition towards multipolarity in the international system has concerned many observers in recent years. They fear'an era of disorder and greatly diminished multilateralism owing to miscalculation, uncertainty and distrust between the new and established powers'. This is based partly on the assumption that multipolarity will create competition rather than cooperation as international actors promote or object to intervention in conflicts based on their own geostrategic, economic or political interests.
Topic:: Security and United Nations
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, and Syria

475. Trends in international arms transfers, 2013

Author:: Siemon T. Wezeman and Pieter D. Wezeman
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The volume of international transfers of major weapons in 2009–13 was 14 per cent higher than in 2004–2008 (see figure 1). The five biggest exporters in 2009–13 were the United States, Russia, Germany, China and France and the five biggest importers were India, China, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, War, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, United States, China, India, Paris, France, Germany, and Saudi Arabia

476. TSG IntelBrief: Economic Drivers of an Iran Nuclear Deal

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: There are clear and compelling economic imperatives for Iran to accept a nuclear agreement with the P5+1 (U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany) by a November 24 deadline. The Iranian public has chafed under comprehensive sanctions since 2010 and expect President Hassan Rouhani to deliver a nuclear agreement that enables the economy to recover and grow. U.S. and other P5+1 officials stress the economic opportunities for Iran that will result, including the eventual re-opening of Iran's oil and gas sector to foreign investment. Major international firms are poised to re-enter the Iranian market in the event of a nuclear deal, although firms will initially be cautious due to lingering uncertainty.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Middle East

477. TSG IntelBrief: Iran Nuclear Talks Intersect Regional Events

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Iran is attempting to link greater cooperation against the so-called Islamic State (IS) organization to concessions by the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program Iran and the P5+1 remain far apart on the core issue of Iran's uranium enrichment program, increasing the likelihood that the talks will be extended beyond the current deadline of November 24 Iran requires a nuclear deal to satisfy public expectations and to increase its influence on regional events, including the US-led effort against IS A key Iranian goal is to dissuade the coalition from expanding the anti-IS campaign to include destabilizing the Assad regime in Syria.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, Germany, and Syria

478. South Korea and China: A Strategic Partnership in the Making

Author:: Mr Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: President Xi Jinping's July 2014 visit to Seoul indicates that the strategic partnership between China and the Republic of Korea is moving forward against a backdrop of growing power competition and instability in the region. Both Seoul and Beijing have strong interest in close cooperation: Beijing wants to prevent a full-fledged trilateral alliance between the US, Japan and South Korea aimed at containing China's rising power Seoul needs Chinese support in its efforts to reach out to Pyongyang and work towards future reunification.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, International Affairs, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Beijing, Asia, and South Korea

479. China's Public Opinion Management: Tightening the Grip in the Digital Age

Author:: Elina Sinkkonen
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The number of netizens in China is growing year on year and the increase in the use of mobile technologies to access the internet is the most notable trend of late. Around half of the Chinese population are now internet users. The Chinese leadership has tightened internet control since August 2013. In February 2014, China established Central Internet Security and Information Leading Group, headed by President Xi Jinping, to monitor Chinese cyberspace. Defamatory social media posts were criminalized, and the first sentence was imposed in April 2014. Despite stricter internet control, criticism of the state and politicians has often been tolerated in social media, whereas any content that promotes offline collective action is systematically censored. However, the idea that the development of the internet in China would lead to significant political change seems unwarranted in the current circumstances. Poll data released on September 9 show that almost 90 per cent of the Chinese respondents harbour negative views about Japan. Internet forums and increasing commercialization of the traditional media are contributing to this public opinion trend, which complicates the handling of China's turbulent relations with Japan.
Topic:: Politics, Communications, Mass Media, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

480. Changing the Channel: Cultivating Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia

Author:: Alex Brouse and Dustin McDonald
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: High tensions in Northeast Asia are cause for considerable alarm. Of particular concern for the maintenance of global security are the disputes over Senkaku/Diaoyu and Dokdo/Takeshima islands. Strong grievances rooted in history and rising nationalistic sentiment in China, South Korea and Japan have made the positions of the respective parties currently irreconcilable. The tension surrounding the issue of territorial control, particularly between China and Japan, has the potential to spark a military confrontation. Due to a lack of empathy and the propensity to overestimate threats from neighbours, the region is especially volatile. Public commitments by US President Barack Obama in support of the US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty could ensure that any military confrontation between China and Japan might quickly escalate and draw the United States into direct conflict with China. In order to improve empathy, a concerted effort must be made to change the channel and work on issues where interests do align. Nowhere do the interests of China, South Korea, Japan and the United States align more than on the issue of North Korean denuclearization. By working together on an issue of mutual concern, these four countries can counter the rapid erosion of trust. By cultivating a cooperative attitude, tensions can be lowered, increasing the prospects for peaceful management of current acute disputes.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and South Korea

481. The Effect of Index Futures Trading on Volatility: Three Markets for Chinese Stocks

Author:: Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Jeanne Diesteldorf
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: This paper examines whether the introduction of Chinese stock index futures had an impact on the volatility of the underlying spot market. To this end, we estimate several Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models and compare our findings for mainland China with Chinese index futures traded in Singapore and Hong Kong. Our results indicate that Chinese index futures decrease spot market volatility with all three spot markets considered. In contrast, we do not obtain the same results for the companion index futures markets in Hong Kong and Singapore. China's stock market is relatively young and largely dominated by private retail investors. Nevertheless, our evidence is favourable to the stabilization hypothesis usually confirmed in mature markets.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Singapore

482. The rise of FDI income, and what it means for the balance of payments of developing countries

Author:: Miguel Pérez Ludeña
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Multinational enterprises (MNEs) multiplied their profits made in developing countries by four between 2002 and 2011 (at current prices). In Latin America and the Caribbean, they rose from US$20 billion in 2002 to US$113 billion in 2011. The growth rate has been even higher in Africa and China, but much lower in developed countries. This rise is explained by an increase in FDI stock in developing economies and the higher average profitability of MNEs.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Latin America

483. Why China Needs New Institutions to Cope with Looming Water Scarcity

Author:: Scott Moore
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Few places in the world are facing such acute scarcity of water as is northern China, the region surrounding the nation's capital in Beijing. Over the past three decades, rapid economic development and population growth have caused a dramatic water shortage in the region. Groundwater tables have dropped so precipitously that in some places wells cannot be dug deep enough to reach water. Climate change is making rainfall more unpredictable, further darkening the picture for a region that is vital to both the Chinese and world economies. This brief looks at the so-far inadequate responses of the Chinese government and makes the case that new institutions are needed to allow China to meet this growing challenge.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Water
Political Geography:: China and Asia

484. Assessing the responses of the Chinese media and research community to the Ukrainian crisis

Author:: Chris Alden
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Assessments of the official Chinese reaction to the crisis in Ukraine have focused primarily on China's abstention in the vote on a UN Security Council resolution condemning Russian actions and, to a lesser degree, on the three-pronged Chinese proposal for addressing the crisis. However, by examining an array of Chinese sources, including media reports, editorials, and research think-tank publications, a number of viewpoints are presented that provide a better sense of the scope of Chinese thinking on the subject. These concentrate on the notion of Chinese neutrality, Western interference, the domestic sources of the Ukrainian crisis, and possible policy options available to Chinese decision-makers. Understanding these provides a more nuanced understanding of Chinese reactions to the Ukrainian crisis and its possible significance for China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Mass Media
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Ukraine, and Asia

485. Keeping the Peace in the Pacific: The Next Steps in American Policy

Author:: John Lee and Charles Horner
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: U.S. administrations and officials are consistently caught flat-footed by the increasing assertiveness of the People's Republic of China (PRC) over disputed territories in the East China and South China Seas. This assertiveness is strident, yet controlled. Beijing's objectives in the region, with respect to maritime issues in particular, have been apparent for several decades. While the United States is well aware of the PRC's "talk and take" approach—speaking the language of negotiation while extending de facto control over disputed areas—U.S. policy has been tactical and responsive rather than strategic and preemptive, thus allowing China to control the pace and nature of escalation in executing talk and take.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

486. Cybersecurity and Tailored Deterrence

Author:: Franklin D. Kramer and Melanie J. Teplinsky
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Cyber has become the new conflict arena. It ranks as one of the greatest national security challenges facing the United States for three reasons. First, as the revelations about the National Security Agency's (NSA's) activities suggest, cyber offense has far outpaced cyber defense. Second, cyber capabilities are prevalent worldwide and increasingly are being used to achieve the strategic goals of nations and actors adverse to the United States. Third, it is highly unlikely that cyber espionage and other cyber intrusions will soon cease. While the NSA disclosures focus on the United States and the United Kingdom, there is little doubt that China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and others are engaged in significant cyber activities. The fundamental question is whether the cyber realm can, consistent with the national interest, be made more stable and secure.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, and North Korea

487. The BRICS Development Bank: Why the world's newest global bank must adopt a pro-poor agenda

Author:: Lysa John
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In July 2014, a new multilateral and Southern-led development bank is expected to be launched by the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – better known as the BRICS. The BRICS Development Bank will provide a fresh source of finance for developing and emerging economies to meet their development needs. Little has been made public regarding the proposed Bank's core mandate or activities but while governments negotiate the technicalities of the Bank, it is critical that they also provide a solid vision of the principles, priorities and objectives on which the Bank's activities and operations will be premised. This policy brief recommends that these include commitments to: ending extreme poverty and inequality, with a special focus on gender equity and women's rights; aligning with environmental and social safeguards and establishing mechanisms for information sharing, accountability and redress; leadership on the sustainable development agenda; the creation of mechanisms for public consultation and debate; and the adoption a truly democratic governance structure.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Gender Issues, International Cooperation, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

488. Power Shift and Renminbi Internationalization: Recommendations for the G20

Author:: Raluca Diana Ardelean and Mengun Zhang
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: China has gained substantial economic power in recent years, becoming the second-largest trading nation after the United States and the largest goods-trading nation since 2012 (Eichengreen 2014). It is also currently the largest source of savings and the largest potential source of capital for international investment (ibid.). Measured by GDP, China is now the second-largest economy in the world (see Figure 1), and the World Bank surmises it is likely to surpass the United States in 2014 (World Bank 2014). Because of China's growing economic importance, a shift in power is reasonably assumed. As its economic power grows, internationalization of the RMB has become a key policy goal for China, especially after the 2008 financial crisis (Zhang 2009; Park 2010; China Securities Regulatory Commission [CSRC] 2014). This goal demonstrates China's desire for better integration and representation in the international economic community and signals its willingness to perform internal financial reforms and take more responsibility in global economic affairs.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

489. Morocco's Emergence as a Gateway to Business in Africa

Author:: J. Peter Pham and Ricardo Rene Laremont
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Africa is home to seven of the world's ten fastest-growing economies. By 2050, the continent's population is expected to overtake India's and China's, doubling to two billion people. Moreover, those two billion Africans will be younger than their counterparts in every other region of the world and will account for one in four workers globally by mid-century. Africa's rich endowment of natural resources, including about 30 percent of the world's known reserves of minerals and 60 percent of the planet's uncultivated arable land, is already well-known to investors.
Topic:: Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Morocco

490. The impact of the withdrawal from Afghanistan on Russia's security

Author:: Patrick Nopens
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: ISAF's withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 will directly impact the wider region. Not only is there a risk of instability spilling over to Central Asia, but the drawdown will also accelerate the ongoing shift in the balance of power in Central Asia towards China. Should a spillover occur, the burden will mainly fall on Russia and China. Russia will, however, only continue playing the dominant role in the security of the former Soviet Central Asia (FSCA) until China takes on responsibility for the security of its direct sphere of influence or "dingwei". Russia's Near Abroad, however, overlaps both with the EU's Eastern Neighbourhood in Europe and China's dingwei in Central Asia and the Far East. It is, therefore, necessary to approach Russian reactions to these encroachments on its historical spheres of influence in a single context, taking into account the interrelationship between these three.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia

491. Iran and the P5+1: Getting to "Yes"

Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: That nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the UK, U.S. and Germany) were extended beyond the 20 July 2014 deadline was neither unexpected nor unwelcome. The parties ha d made enough headway to justify the extension, which was envisioned in the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) that was signed in November 2013 and came into force in January, but given the political and technical complexity, they remain far apart on fundamental issues. Unless they learn the lessons of the last six months and change their approach for the next four, they will lose the opportunity for a resolution not just by the new 24 November deadline but for the foreseeable future. Both sides need to retreat from maximalist positions, particularly on Iran's enrichment program. Tehran should postpone plans for industrial- scale enrichment and accept greater constraints on the number of its centrifuges in return for P5+1 flexibility on the qualitative growth of its enrichment capacity through research and development.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iran, Middle East, and France

492. Is China's Property Market Heading toward Collapse?

Author:: Li-gang Liu
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: China's property market has slowed significantly since the first half of 2014, with sharp declines in sales and a buildup in the inventory of new homes. This sharper than expected downturn—which has affected not only second- and third tier smaller cities but also first-tier megacities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou—contrasts with last year's buoyant sales and double-digit price surge. Compounded by fears of a default in the shadow banking system and the perception of a highly leveraged Chinese economy, the sudden declines in the property sector are being watched closely. Many commentators believe this could be a turning point for the sector, triggering a hard landing of the Chinese economy and even a financial crisis. Over the last decade, China's property sector has become an important pillar for the country's growth as well as the key source for elevated commodity prices. A property market slump would hurt other sectors, as well as drag down resource-rich economies that rely heavily on China to buy their exports.
Topic:: Economics, Financial Crisis, and Urbanization
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and United Nations

493. America’s Allies and Nuclear Arms: Assessing the Geopolitics of Nonproliferation in Asia

Author:: Robert Zarate
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: While U.S. policymakers and lawmakers sometimes deeply disagree on precisely how to stop hostile states from getting nuclear weapons, they generally agree on the overall goal of nuclear nonproliferation with regard to adversaries. But what about the goal of nonproliferation with regard to treaty allies? If Japan, South Korea, or other U.S. treaty allies in Asia who are threatened by China’s and North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threats, were someday to insist on getting independent nuclear arsenals, should Washington welcome or oppose them?
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, Nonproliferation, and Alliance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America

494. China’s Air Defense Identification System: The Role of PLA Air Surveillance

Author:: Mark Stokes
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: In the wake of the 18th Central Committee’s Third Plenum in November 2013, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced the establishment of its first air defense identification zone (ADIZ). Assessments of the ADIZ to date have focused in large part on implications for territorial and maritime disputes in region. However, other potential drivers may offer additional context for the decision. Among these include coercion of Taiwan, unprecedented changes in China’s national airspace management system, and technical advances that have enhanced interoperability between the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and Navy (PLAN).
Topic:: Defense Policy, Territorial Disputes, Surveillance, and Air Force
Political Geography:: China and Asia

495. Canada's non-reciprocal BIT with China: Would the US or Europe do the same?

Author:: Gus Van Harten
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The Canada - China bilateral investment treaty (BIT) – ratified by Canada on September 12, 2014, after a two - year delay following its signature in 2012 – provides a useful reference for future investment negotiations involving Canada or China and other countries.
Political Geography:: China and Canada

496. Ethnic Policy in China: Is Reform Inevitable?

Author:: James Leibold
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Balancing ethnocultural diversity and dignity with national integration and interethnic cohesion has been a constant challenge for Chinese policymakers. With a sizeable ethnic minority population, China has long been engaged in this delicate balancing act. Despite episodic conflict, it could be argued that the Communist Party of China (CPC) has, especially since the 1976 death of Mao Zedong, done a relatively competent job of containing ethnic tensions.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Governance
Political Geography:: China and Israel

497. Hedging Against an Unstable China: Measures to Enhance Regional and Global Resilience

Author:: Alexandre Catta, Aladdin Diakun, and Clara Yoon
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Mainstream analysis on China tends to be overly optimistic, leaving a blind spot in strategic planning. While the country's socio-economic landscape has been transformed over several decades of uninterrupted growth, it faces significant domestic and international risks and constraints. Chief among these are labour insecurity and imbalances, environmental constraints and rising climatic risks, and food insecurity, all coupled with rising popular expectations for a higher overall standard of living. Major soy producers (Argentina, Brazil and the United States) should take steps to ensure the stability of China's supply. In particular, these countries should set aside reserves to help mitigate future supply shocks and price spikes resulting from climate change. Manufacturers operating in or with China should immediately begin mapping their supply chains to identify vulnerabilities associated with crisis scenarios in the country. Where specific risks are identified, they should explore supply-chain diversification to boost resilience among major trading partners. To deter China from externalizing internal stresses, international actors should raise the political costs of nationalistic unilateralism by opening more channels for dialogue, deepening institutional integration and buttressing cooperative security norms.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Environment, and Food
Political Geography:: China and Israel

498. The futile debate over a multilateral framework for investment

Author:: Axel Berger
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: One of the recurrent debates on international investment rule-making relates to the question whether it is possible to establish a multilateral framework for investment (MFI). Proponents argue that growing foreign direct investment (FDI) from emerging countries, especially China, contributes to a new consensus on global investment rules.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China

499. The Global Arctic: The Growing Arctic Interests of Russia, China, the United States and the European Union

Author:: Juha Käpylä and Harri Mikkola
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: With exciting economic opportunities and serious environmental challenges, the Arctic is transforming and re-emerging as a geopolitically important region. Major global players within and without the Arctic are paying greater attention to the region. While Russia is a traditional Arctic state with significant economic and security interests in the region, China, the US and the EU have also expressed their Arctic interests more explicitly. They are keen to tap into the economic potential and have a say in the way the region becomes accessed, exploited and governed. As a result, the Arctic is no longer a spatially or administratively confined region, but is instead taking its new form in the midst of contemporary global politics. The globalization and economization of the Arctic will most likely downplay environmentalism and reduce the relative influence of the indigenous people and small Arctic states in Arctic affairs. Arctic governance is also likely to turn more complex and complicated as the economic and political stakes are raised.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Development, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, and Europe

500. China's Credit Boom: New Risks Require New Reforms

Author:: Nicholas Borst
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Chinese financial system has undergone almost continuous reform since the dismantling in the 1980s of the Soviet- style system where only one state-controlled bank existed. Government efforts to create a financial system that adheres to international best practices of commercial lending accelerated in the 1990s (box 1). Reforms progressed quickly during this period, but they were accompanied by excessive credit growth and a massive increase in nonperforming loans, threatening the solvency of some banks and the financial stability of the entire economy. The risk of these weaknesses was dramatized by the 1997 Asian financial crisis, in which several nearby countries were crippled by plunging currency values, rising interest rates and difficulties servicing their foreign-held debts.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

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