Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: Asia / Topic: International Trade and Finance

1. Economic Security in Emerging Markets: A Look at India, Vietnam, and Indonesia

Author:: Matthew Goodman, Matthew Reynolds, and Julianne Fittipaldi
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: With the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chain resilience has emerged as a policy priority of the United States and its allies. The issue of supply chains has also raised the profile of emerging economies that offer possible alternatives to China as production platforms for multinational firms. This report surveys economic security policy developments in three major emerging economies: India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. It finds that all are attempting to take advantage of this new focus on supply chain resilience, while (to varying degrees) balancing the economic security risks posed by China’s rise. The United States and its allies have an opportunity to work with these emerging economies to shape their decisions about trade, investment, and technology policies in ways that promote mutual economic security and enhance international economic rules and norms.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: Indonesia, India, Asia, Vietnam, and Asia-Pacific

2. Green New Deal for Carbon-neutrality and Open Trade Policy in Korea

Author:: Jukwan Lee, Jongduk Kim, Jinyoung Moon, Jyun-Hyun Eom, Ji Hyeon Kim, and Jungmin Suh
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study focuses on Korea’s Green New Deal policy and global response measures to climate change that affect international trade. A trade policy perspective and approach have been applied while reviewing the carbon-neutral policy pursued by the Green New Deal. We attempted through an empirical analysis to determine whether the expansion of openness helps reduce carbon emissions and simulate the impact of a carbon-neutral policy, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment, on the global economy under global production networks. In addition, the amount of financial support from Korea's Green New Deal needed to offset the negative economic effects of other countries’ independent carbon-neutral policies was derived. This study finally suggests that the effect of the Green New Deal can be expanded through the restoration of openness and global cooperation.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Economy, Trade, Carbon Emissions, and Green New Deal
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

3. Securing Asia’s Subsea Network U.S. Interests and Strategic Options

Author:: Matthew Goodman and Matthew Wayland
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: More than 1 million kilometers of submarine cables traversing the ocean floor, each about as wide as a garden hose, transmit up to 99 percent of international data, underpinning global trade and communication. This vital digital infrastructure faces myriad threats, from earthquakes and typhoons to fishing nets and saboteurs. The United States derives significant advantages from its centrality in Asia’s subsea cables, which contribute up to $169 billion to the U.S. economy annually and could benefit more U.S. workers and businesses as demand for digital products and services grows globally. But realizing those benefits will require the United States to step up its policy engagement on Asia’s cable networks, which are changing with China’s rise, the emergence of new regional hubs, and new transpacific routes designed to reduce risks and increase network resiliency.
Topic:: Security, International Trade and Finance, Communications, Maritime, and Commerce
Political Geography:: China and Asia

4. China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Successful economic strategy or failed soft-power tool?

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is part of China’s efforts to integrate its neighbouring countries into its economic sphere, thus increasing China’s security in its immediate neighbourhood while facing an increasingly hostile international environment due to its rivalry with the US. In reality, the BRI has evolved into an umbrella term for various infrastructure and development projects with no unified object or strategy. The projects should, in principle, increase goodwill towards China, and correspondingly boost its influence, but in practice they are mainly aimed at economic benefit. The results of the BRI, especially as a soft-power tool, are ambiguous. Its ideational basis is thin, consisting mainly of China’s critique towards the “hegemony of the West”. This reduces the BRI to a hollow slogan with little appeal apart from the pragmatic gains. However, the BRI is here to stay for the duration of Xi Jinping’s rule because China’s foreign policy is often driven by prestige. The BRI is enshrined in the Communist Party’s Constitution in order to both add weight to the initiative and to increase the Party’s prestige with its success, modest as it may be.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

5. New Dynamism in ASEAN and East Asia: The Role of the RCEP as a ‘Living’ Agreement

Author:: Shandre Mugan Thangavelu, Fukunari Kimura, and Dionisius Narjoko
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This policy brief highlights the importance of maintaining open regionalism and economic and regional integration for sustainable and inclusive regional and global growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia. With rising global uncertainties and global value chain (GVC) disruptions, the region requires a new economic and social agenda beyond trading arrangements, and the alignment of global, regional, and domestic policies and structural issues. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is expected to provide a new institutional framework under the built-in institutional feature (Chapter 18) of the agreement.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Regionalism, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:: Asia and ASEAN

6. China's Ties with Southeast Asia : From Green Shoots to Sustained Recovery

Author:: Kensuke Tanaka
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: China's rebound happened relatively quickly owing to a large extent to timely macroeconomic policy responses to the crisis. Lagging somewhat behind China, most Southeast Asian countries have now entered the transition from recession to recovery. Some export-dependent Southeast Asian countries shifted their export destination to China to benefit from its early recovery. This switch of export destination to China illustrates China's important role in leading the recovery of the region. Enhancing regional macroeconomic co-operation would help reduce vulnerability of the region and ensure a sustained recovery. Regional macroeconomic co-operation remains at an early stage in Southeast Asia, but possibilities for further co-operation should be explored.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

7. Curbing State-Driven Trade Policies: How to Craft New & Effective Approaches to Counter Distortive Practices

Author:: Wendy Cutler
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: Much attention has been focused on China’s unfair intellectual property practices and the imbalance in the U.S.-China trade relationship, but equally troubling are large-scale Chinese industrial subsidies, the behavior of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and in general, the oversized and opaque role of the Chinese state in the economy. While the U.S-China phase one trade deal tackled some important sources of bilateral tension and aimed to boost Chinese purchases of U.S. goods and services, it was silent on industrial subsidies and related matters, leaving them for the next phase of negotiations, the fate of which is now in question. U.S. concerns on these matters are shared by other trading partners including the European Union (EU) and Japan. Yet despite widespread disapproval of such practices, building new global rules to combat subsidies has proven challenging. This is due to several factors, ranging from gridlock at the WTO, differences of views among like-minded countries on the required level of ambition, and uncertainty as to how best to approach the enormous complexities in China’s subsidies and related policies. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has sought to unpack this complexity, conducting recent studies of Chinese subsidies in two key sectors: aluminum and semiconductors. Both studies illustrate how Chinese subsidies are not simple cash handouts from the state to protected firms so that they can sell at favorable and distorting prices. The OECD finds subsidies can take various forms, including downstream or upstream help that trickles up or down to the firm that’s intended to benefit. They can take the form of favorable equity or debt purchases or bonds provided at below-market rates. And with interconnected global value chains, subsidies can effectively be granted covertly, intended to benefit one firm that might be several links away along the chain. In China, the problem is compounded by an opaque “party-state” structure that obscures not only the recipients of subsidies, but also the source. According to Mark Wu, a Harvard Law School professor who previously served as the Director for Intellectual Property in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, subsidies not only flow directly from government bodies in Beijing, but also indirectly through informal responses to directives — sometimes even left unsaid, but understood — from the Chinese Communist Party. Against this backdrop, the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) convened two roundtables in the fall of 2019 and the spring of 2020 to discuss how best to build a new rules-based infrastructure that might combat such subsidies and prevent trade-distorting results such as unfair competition, market access barriers, and, above all, overcapacity in global markets. Experts from the private sector, think tanks, governments, and academia weighed in with possible solutions, which included: Negotiating new rules in the WTO; Using the WTO dispute settlement system, despite its often-discussed flaws; Forming ad hoc rules-based approaches, where possible, like the U.S-EU-Japan trilateral initiative; Plurilateral negotiations conducted on a sector-by-sector basis; Forming coalitions of like-minded trading partners to establish an alternative model, much in the way that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was framed. During the roundtables, most experts agreed that there is no silver bullet that solves the subsidy and related issues on its own. And most agree that, left unaddressed, the problem is likely to deepen. The COVID-19 pandemic might even exacerbate it by leading to more state involvement in economies around the world and making it hard to discipline Beijing’s practices. Recognizing all of these real challenges that the international trade community faces, the roundtables reached the following key conclusions: Transparency on the scope, level, and nature of industrial subsidies is vital; Efforts to publicize the ongoing work in these areas, particularly that being done by the OECD, should accelerate; Turning research into tangible new policies is a key step; and Persuading China to agree to updated rules will be necessary, given that China is a singular contributor to overcapacity.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Trade, Industry, and WTO
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8. Remolding China’s ‘Empty’ Belt and Road Initiative: An Opportunity for the EU

Author:: Jasper Roctus
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: China’s controversial Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been subject to ample scrutiny since its inception in 2013. Practical results could be said to be severely lacking in contrast to the project’s ambitious plans. Chinese engagement abroad has irrefutably intensified since Xi Jinping assumed power in 2012, but whether this can be classified as the fruits of BRI remains unclear. China, in fact, is developing BRI on the go. That gives the EU an opportunity to engage with BRI and remold it into a more desirable form. Because China increasingly sees Europe as BRI’s “final destination”, the EU has a lot more leverage than it commonly assumes.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Hegemony, European Union, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

9. The Economic Effects of Multinational Corporation Withdrawal and Policy Implications

Author:: Minsoo Han, Hyuk-Hwang Kim, Hyelin Choi, Danbee Park, and Jisu Kim
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The shutdown of the GM Koreas Gunsan plant in May 2018 heightened social interest in the withdrawal of mutlinational corporations (MNCs). Against this backdrop, the forthcoming research The economic effects of multinational corporation withdrawal and policy responses studies the previous cases of MNC withdrawal, estimates the effects on labor market., and provides policy directions to address to the withdrawal. This note summarizes some of its important results.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Economy, Multinational Corporations, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

10. Potential Implications of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership to India-South Korea Bilateral Trade Ties

Author:: Surendar Singh
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: India and South Korea enjoy strong economic and trade relations, shaped by a significant convergence of interest, mutual good will and high-level diplomatic exchange. Bilateral trade between the two countries has also increased after signing the Comprehensive Economic Partnership (CEPA). However, the overall trade balance is in favor of South Korea due to superior comparative advantage of Korea in manufacturing as compared to India. South Korean exports are high technology-intensive while India’s exports are low-value raw material and intermediate products. Both countries are members to a mega regional trade pact – the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Though India has decided to not join the RCEP at this stage it will continue the discussion to explore possible ways to join it. Assuming that India will join the RCEP sooner or later, it is important to analyze the potential impact of the RCEP to India-South Korea bilateral trade ties. This short policy paper compares the proposed provisions of the RCEP and CEPA. It shows that the RCEP is much more comprehensive an agreement compared to the CEPA, both in terms of coverage and scope. It also provides some insights on the likely implications of the RCEP, especially from the perspective of trade with China factored against the bilateral trade ties between India and South Korea.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Asia, and South Korea

11. A World Dividing: The International Implications of the Sino-American Rift

Author:: Chas W. Freeman Jr.
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: The Trump administration has declared economic war on China. The United States has raised taxes on Chinese imports to levels not seen since the Smoot–Hawley tariffs of the Great Depression. Over the course of this year, Chinese imports of American goods have decreased by 26.4 percent, while China’s exports to the United States are down 10.7 percent. Washington has embargoed exports to China of a constantly expanding list of high-tech manufactures. It seeks to block Chinese telecommunications companies from third-country markets. The United States has mounted a vigorous campaign to persuade other countries to reject Chinese investments in their infrastructure, notably in the case of 5G telecommunications networks.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Trade Wars, International Community, and Exports
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Global Focus

12. Chinese Leadership and the Future of BRI: What Key Decisions Lie Ahead?

Author:: Brad Parks
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: It’s 2028. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been underway for 15 years, but the initial enthusiasm and momentum behind BRI has vanished. Many of the governments that initially joined the initiative have publicly withdrawn or quietly wound down their participation. China’s staunchest allies remain engaged but even they have reservations about the wisdom of the initiative. They are saddled with unproductive public investment projects and struggling to service their debts. Domestic public sentiment towards China has soured, and they have come to view their participation in BRI as more of a political liability than an asset. But they worry about the consequences of alienating their most important patron and creditor. China has also assumed a defensive posture. Lacking the goodwill that it possessed at the beginning of BRI, it is now using inducements and threats to prevent its remaining clients from abandoning the initiative. Western donors and lenders watch from the sidelines with a sense of bemusement. They encouraged China to “multilateralize” BRI by establishing a common set of project appraisal standards, procurement guidelines, fiduciary controls, and social and environmental safeguards that other aid agencies and development banks could support. But Beijing chose to go it alone. It opted not to embrace the use of economic rate-of-return analysis to vet project proposals; resisted efforts to harmonize its environmental, social, and fiduciary safeguards with those used by aid agencies and development banks outside of China; and pushed back on the “Western” suggestion that it modernize its monitoring and evaluation practices. China bet that its fast and flexible approach to infrastructure finance would prove to be so compelling that traditional donors and lenders would eventually jump on the bandwagon and co-finance BRI projects. But it miscalculated. Its model was insufficiently attractive on its merits to enlist the participation and support of the other major players in the bilateral and multilateral development finance market. Nor was it sufficiently appealing to sustain elite and public support in partner countries.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Leadership, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

13. Chinese Investments in the US and EU Are Declining—for Similar Reasons

Author:: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: For years China has been one of the world’s most rapidly growing sources of outward foreign direct investment. Since peaking in 2016, however, Chinese outward investments, primarily to the United States but also the European Union, have declined dramatically, especially in response to changes in China’s domestic rules on capital outflows and in the face of rising nationalism in the United States. Concerns about growing Chinese influence in other economies, the ascendant role of an authoritarian government in Beijing, and the possible security implications of Chinese dominance in the high-technology sector have put Chinese outward investments under intense international scrutiny. This Policy Brief analyzes the most recent trends in Chinese investments in the United States and the European Union and reviews recent political and regulatory changes both have adopted toward Chinese inward investments. It also explores the emerging transatlantic difference in the regulatory response to the Chinese information technology firm Huawei. Concerned about national security and as part of the ongoing broader trade friction with China, the United States has cracked down far harder on the company than the European Union.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, National Security, Foreign Direct Investment, and Investment
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

14. Expo promotes high-quality development

Author:: Dong Yan and Wen Jun
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China will promote higher-level opening-up by continuing to expand access to its market, increase imports, foster a world-class business environment, deepen multilateral and bilateral cooperation and jointly build the Belt and Road Initiative. This is the promise President Xi Jinping made in his keynote speech at the second China International Import Expo in Shanghai on Tuesday. ...... China's imports have made important contributions to global trade and economic growth, accounting for 10.67 percent of the global goods imports last year. At the second CIIE, which concludes on Sunday, more than 150 countries, regions and international organizations from across five continents are showcasing their development results while more than 3,000 enterprises are holding talks with purchasing agents both inside and outside China. The CIIE is a platform for not only trading goods and services, but also exchanging ideas and discussing global trade issues.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Business, Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:: China and Asia

15. More than meets the eye in ROK ceding developing economy status

Author:: Dong Yan and Ma Tao
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: A large number of farmers in the Republic of Korea took to the streets of Seoul on Wednesday, protesting the government's recent decision to give up its developing country status at the World Trade Organization in future trade negotiations and thus lose the benefits accruing out of it. The protesters were worried that the decision would eventually lead to a drastic cut in state agriculture subsidies and tariffs. …… Given that countries could experience uneven development, gaining undue advantages in some areas while being weak in others, the WTO has prevented some developing countries from enjoying some of the special and differential treatments in certain fields. For instance, it has restricted the ROK and India from using measures to promote balance of payment. Besides, the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, revised in 2003, allows countries that lack production capability to import nonproprietary medicines, which is opposed by the developed countries－and 11 countries including China, the ROK, Mexico and Turkey have agreed to implement the agreement only in emergencies.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, World Trade Organization, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, India, Asia, and Korea

16. China Responds to Trade Tensions Responsibly

Author:: Su Qingyi
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: In March 2018, the United States slapped tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum in the name of national security under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Then, the Office of the United States Trade Representative released a report on the investigation of China under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, claiming China’s acts, policies, and practices regarding technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation are “unreasonable and discriminatory, and burden U.S. commerce.” In early April, it issued a list of products imported from China subject to additional tariffs of 25 percent totaling US $50 billion. In June, Donald Trump approved the tariff imposition on US $50 billion worth of Chinese goods, officially starting from Chinese exports worth US $34 billion on July 6. The remaining US $16 billion was to be imposed later. In July, the U.S. issued another trade barrier of 10 percent tariff on imports from China with a value of US $200 billion. On August 1, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the barriers were suggested by President Trump, who ordered to increase the amount to 25 percent.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

17. “Triple punch” policies to bring years of trade tensions

Author:: Su Qingyi
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: US President Donald Trump has adopted a hard-line trade policy and recklessly instigated the trade conflict with China. This is the result of a combination of adjustments to his trade, foreign, and fiscal policies. These intertwined policies will likely stretch China-US trade frictions throughout Trump's presidency. First of all, the adjustment to the trade policy includes a shift from multilateral free trade to regional free trade and pressuring other countries to open their markets.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Markets, Trade Wars, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

18. China will further open up but not due to US pressure

Author:: Dong Yan
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China will take measures to further open up to the outside world, Xi said in his highly-anticipated keynote address at the Boao Forum for Asia. But amid the escalating China-US trade conflict, some people have wrongly assumed Xi made the remarks with the Trump administration's accusations in mind. But a review of China's policies shows the country will deepen reform and opening-up because of its practical development needs, not because of any other country's demand or coercion. And more importantly, if the US insists on starting a trade war, China's further opening-up policies will not apply to any US enterprises. To people concerned about China's development, Xi's speech must have sounded inspiring, but not surprising, as opening-up has been a development theme for China for the past 40 years.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

19. Showing Up Is Not Enough: Trump’s First 100 Days in the Asia-Pacific

Author:: Michael Fuchs, Brian Harding, and Melanie Hart
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: n its first 100 days in office, the Trump administration has surprised many by continuing the Obama administration’s intense pace of high-level diplomatic engagement with partners across the Asia-Pacific region. But despite that attention—or perhaps in part because of it—the Trump administration has also unnerved allies and partners in the region with a series of damaging policy moves and undiplomatic public comments. After the first few months of Trump’s presidency, this issue brief provides some thoughts on how the administration is doing so far in Asia.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Peace
Political Geography:: Asia, North America, and United States of America

20. Many Belts and Many Roads: The Proliferation of Infrastructure Initiatives in Asia

Author:: Justyna Szczudlik
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Asia could be described as the world’s great construction site, and is already the focus of a scramble for infrastructure projects. Among countries competing for investments are not only China with its Silk Road initiative, but also Korea, Japan, India and ASEAN, which have prepared their own infrastructural strategies. The plethora of initiatives may have a positive impact on Asia, offering diverse solutions to the infrastructural bottleneck and reforms of existing institutions and modes of assistance. But there is also the risk that fierce competition may result in unprofitable projects, while economic slowdown could cause a decline in funding. For Europe these initiatives create opportunities to take part in new projects, but the EU should be aware that the projects will be implemented mainly in Asia and by Asian countries.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, and Reform
Political Geography:: Asia

21. An Assessment of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement

Author:: Jeffrey Schott, Eujiin Jung, and Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Of all the free trade agreements (FTAs) concluded by Korea with its major trading partners since the turn of the century, the Korea-China FTA may be the largest in trade terms. It is, however, far from the best in terms of the depth of liberalization and the scope of obligations on trade and investment policies. Korea and China agreed to liberalize a large share of bilateral trade within 20 years, but both sides incorporated extensive exceptions to basic tariff reforms and deferred important market access negotiations on services and investment for several years. Political interests trumped economic objectives, and the negotiated outcome cut too many corners to achieve such a comprehensive result. The limited outcome in the Korea-China talks has two clear implications for economic integration among the northeast Asian countries. First, prospects for the ongoing China-Japan-Korea talks will be limited and unlikely to exceed the Korea-China outcome. Second, Korea and Japan need to strengthen their bilateral leg of the northeast Asian trilateral and the best way is by negotiating a deal in the context of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Korea

22. Unconventional Monetary Policy, Spillovers, and Liftoff: Implications for Northeast Asia

Author:: Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Unconventional monetary policy (UMP) has had predictable effects. How exit plays out is scenario-dependent. Quantitative easing has had the predictable effect of encouraging currency depreciation and some partner countries may have attempted to offset these exchange rate effects. Korea presents a particularly interesting case: it is relatively small and relatively open and integrated, in both trade and financial terms, with the United States and Japan, two practitioners of UMP. Authorities have acted to limit the won's appreciation primarily against the currency of China, not the US or Japan. Nevertheless, Korea's policy is a source of tension with the US. Under legislation currently being considered, the currency manipulation issue could potentially interfere with Korean efforts to attract direct investment from the US and create an obstacle to Korea joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Monetary Policy, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Asia

23. The ASEAN Economic Community: What Stands in the Way?

Author:: Jon Dorsch
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: At the end of 2015 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will announce the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). In theory, this agreement should produce an association-wide economic integration. However, following the announcement, and for the foreseeable future, ASEAN member states will continue in significantly less than full regional economic integration. Why? Some observers believe that the AEC plans involve an "overly ambitious timeline and too many ill-thought-out initiatives." Others point to ASEAN's traditional aversion to legally binding agreements. While progress has been made in reducing or eliminating intra-ASEAN trade tariffs, substantial non-tariff barriers to trade persist. However, for most member states, the ASEAN market is relatively small while external markets, especially China, are growing rapidly. Given this outward-orientation for ASEAN trade, is the lack of an unhindered regional market really a problem?
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Asia

24. Japan's New Security Policy: Breaking Away from the Post–War Regime?

Author:: Bart Gaens
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: China is challenging the regional balance of power in East Asia through a military buildup and an increasingly assertive foreign policy. The US is forced to find the right balance between cooperating with China while benefiting from its economic rise, and countering China's regional reach by carrying out its self-declared "pivot" to Asia in spite of domestic and budgetary constraints. With just over one year in office, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has received wide domestic support for his ambitious plans to revive Japan's economy through his threefold policy of Abenomics. At the same time, however, he has implemented a number of significant policies in the defence and security sphere. In response to China's military rise, the Abe administration increased and recalibrated the defence budget. Furthermore, in order to reinforce the alliance with the US, the government approved the creation of a US-style National Security Council, passed a Secrecy Bill, and aims to reverse Japan's self-imposed ban on exercising the right to collective self-defence. Under the banner of "proactive pacifism", the Abe cabinet is seizing the momentum caused by the changing regional power dynamics in order to edge closer towards "breaking away from the postwar regime". A proposed revision of Japan's constitution, unchanged since 1947, symbolizes the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) objective to bring about a more autonomous role for Japan both in the security alliance with the US and as an international actor.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

25. EU-Russia: overcoming stagnation

Author:: Nicu Popescu
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: For the best part of the last two decades, EU-Russia summits have alternated between being upbeat events where new grand integration initiatives were launched – the creation of four common spaces in 2005, the partnership for modernisation in 2010 – and rather unfriendly encounters where success was seemingly measured on how impolite the partners could be to one another.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

26. ASEAN Centrality and the ASEAN-US Economic Relationship

Author:: Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: ASEAN has become a focal point of the rapidly changing economic architecture of the Asia-Pacific region. ASEAN members are increasingly stable and politically confident, and constitute an emerging economic powerhouse. The region is dynamic, with 600 million citizens and a gross domestic product (GDP) that exceeds $2 trillion and is expected to grow 6 percent annually for the next two decades. (The Appendix at the end of this paper reports detailed output and trade projections to 2025.) Through deeper internal integration via the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and external initiatives such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), ASEAN is becoming a driving force in regional cooperation and a much-courted economic partner. The AEC and the RCEP projects are globally significant: the AEC could generate powerful demonstration effects for other developing regions, and the RCEP could become an important building bloc of the multilateral trading system.
Topic:: Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: United States, East Asia, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

27. Flexible Implementation: A Key to Asia's Transformation

Author:: Luke Simon Jordan and Katerina Koinis
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Despite the region's economic growth over the last few decades, countries across Asia still face the complex challenge of structural transformation. Low-income economies must build formal industrial and service sectors from agricultural and informal bases; middle-income economies must move up the value chain; and high-income economies must continually generate new capabilities at the frontier of innovation.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

28. China's Long March Toward Economic Rebalancing

Author:: Hongying Wang
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: China's role in the global imbalance is closely linked to its domestic imbalance. Chinese policy makers have long been aware of the dual imbalance and the imperative to shift to economic growth driven by domestic consumption. They have taken limited steps in changing the development model, but political obstacles have slowed the pace of reform. The new leadership seems serious about deepening economic reform despite political resistance, but without political reform, the prospect of success remains dim.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

29. The Eurasian Customs Union: the economics and the politics

Author:: Nicu Popescu and Iana Dreyer
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Long ignored by the West, the Eurasian Customs Union (consisting of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan) has recently been brought into the international limelight. The project – an attempt by the Kremlin to create a rival to the European Union and its Eastern Partnership project – attracted attention when Moscow, with its characteristic bluntness, began to pressure Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine to join the grouping and drop their plans to sign Association Agreements with the EU. Although Russia has not succeeded in convincing all these states to join, it managed to do so with Armenia in September 2013, and the political tussle over the issue with Ukraine played a central role in triggering the country's current crisis.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Eurasia, and Asia

30. China's energy demands: are they reshaping the world?

Author:: Gerald Stang
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: In 2012, China was the world's seventh biggest producer of natural gas, the fourth largest oil producer, and the biggest producer of hydroelectricity. It also produced almost as much coal as the rest of the world combined. Still, this is not enough. China's domestic energy bounty has long allowed the country to keep its overall import dependency relatively low but, as the country's economy continues to boom, its import dependency is growing quickly, particularly with regard to oil.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: China and Asia

31. Should Korea Join the Trans-Pacific Partnership?

Author:: Jeffrey J. Schott and Cathleen Cimino
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The negotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a megaregional agreement to lower barriers to trade and investment and promote economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region, has been a dynamic process with a number of countries joining the talks in midstream. Since negotiations began in March 2010, participation in the TPP talks has expanded several times to include Malaysia (October 2010), Vietnam (December 2010), Canada and Mexico (October 2012), and Japan (July 2013). In November 2013, Korea announced its interest in participating in the TPP and began consulting with the countries involved. The TPP now has 12 participants. Korea is still considering whether to become lucky 13.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Malaysia, Canada, Asia, Vietnam, Korea, and Mexico

32. The Asia-Pacific Cooperation Agenda: Moving from Regional Cooperation Toward Global Leadership,

Author:: Charles E. Morrison
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In the past quarter-century Asia has seen vast changes, including increased economic growth, integration, and liberalization. The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) process, now marking its 25th anniversary, facilitated these changes through its institution of the first regular meetings of ministers and then leaders. But what role should APEC play in the future? With a continuing diffusion of power, what was once hailed as an imminent "Asian century" is much more likely to be a global one. This international system, however, will have a trans-Pacific core with much of the economic power and potential to provide global leadership for the further development of international norms, rules, and cooperation. Thus, we may be able to refer to an "Asia-Pacific century." Two questions arise: Is North America, with a relatively small share of global population and a declining share of global world product, still relevant? Will the nations on the two sides of the Pacific really be able to use their power effectively to assume global leadership? The answer to the first of these is "yes," and to the second, "it depends."
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

33. Understanding Differences in Growth Performance in Latin America and Developing Countries between the Asian and Global Financial Crises

Author:: Roberto Alvarez and José De Gregorio
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Latin American performance during the global financial crisis was unprecedented. Many developing and emerging countries successfully weathered the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Was it good luck? Was it good policies? In this paper we compare growth during the Asian and global financial crises and find that a looser monetary policy played an important role in mitigating crisis. We also find that higher private credit, more financial openness, less trade openness, and greater exchange rate intervention worsened economic performance. Our analysis of Latin American countries confirms that effective macroeconomic management was key to good economic performance. Finally, we present evidence from a sample of 31 emerging markets that high terms of trade had a positive impact on resilience.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Asia and Latin America

34. Wildlife Poaching: Africa's Surging Trafficking Threat

Author:: Bradley Anderson and Johan Jooste
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Spikes in the prices of ivory and rhino horn have propelled an escalation in killings of African elephants and rhinoceroses. Without urgent corrective measures, extinction of these populations is likely. This is not just a wildlife poaching problem but part of a global illicit trafficking network that is empowering violent groups and co-opting some elements of Africa's security sector. An immediate bolstering of Africa's wildlife ranger network is needed to slow the pace of elephant and rhino killings and buy time. Addressing this threat over the longer term will require dramatically reducing the demand for these animal parts, especially within Asian markets.
Topic:: Security, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia

35. China needs to complement its "going-out" policy with a "going-in" strategy

Author:: Karl P. Sauvant and Victor Z. Chen
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: China's rising outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) faces rising skepticism abroad. This is partly the result of the leading role of state-owned enterprises in her OFDI (and the fear that it serves non-commercial purposes), the speed with which this investment has grown, the negative image of the home country in some quarters, and the challenges it poses to established competitors. Moreover, Chinese multinational enterprises (MNEs) may not always keep in mind that host countries see FDI as a tool to advance their own development and hence seek maximum benefits from it.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

36. Going Beyond Economic Engagement: Why South Korea Should Press the North on Labor Standards and Practices

Author:: Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In recent years, despite a history of enmity and armed conflict that never really ended after the Korean War more than 60 years ago, South Korea has been a major investor in North Korea, and South Korean firms have employed more than 50,000 North Korean workers. South Korea's stated goal has been to encourage sufficient economic progress by North Korea, emboldening it toward establishing a meaningful basis for reconciliation and, ultimately, national unification. The expectation, or at least the hope, has been to use economic engagement to lessen the North's direct state control over the economy and to encourage the development of a middle class that might demand greater internal opening. The goal, as enunciated by former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung, has also been to foster a rise of interest groups with an enhanced stake in peaceable external relations.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

37. Alternatives to Currency Manipulation: What Switzerland, Singapore, and Hong Kong Can Do

Author:: Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: For the major advanced economies and the world as a whole, insufficient aggregate demand—that is, too little spending—impeded recovery from the Great Recession of 2008-09. By manipulating their currencies to boost their net exports, many countries made a bad situation worse for their trading partners, which saw demand shifted away. The world needs policies that increase total demand rather than policies that fight over the allocation of the existing amount of demand.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, Switzerland, and Singapore

38. Keeping the Peace in the Pacific: The Next Steps in American Policy

Author:: John Lee and Charles Horner
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: U.S. administrations and officials are consistently caught flat-footed by the increasing assertiveness of the People's Republic of China (PRC) over disputed territories in the East China and South China Seas. This assertiveness is strident, yet controlled. Beijing's objectives in the region, with respect to maritime issues in particular, have been apparent for several decades. While the United States is well aware of the PRC's "talk and take" approach—speaking the language of negotiation while extending de facto control over disputed areas—U.S. policy has been tactical and responsive rather than strategic and preemptive, thus allowing China to control the pace and nature of escalation in executing talk and take.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

39. Power Shift and Renminbi Internationalization: Recommendations for the G20

Author:: Raluca Diana Ardelean and Mengun Zhang
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: China has gained substantial economic power in recent years, becoming the second-largest trading nation after the United States and the largest goods-trading nation since 2012 (Eichengreen 2014). It is also currently the largest source of savings and the largest potential source of capital for international investment (ibid.). Measured by GDP, China is now the second-largest economy in the world (see Figure 1), and the World Bank surmises it is likely to surpass the United States in 2014 (World Bank 2014). Because of China's growing economic importance, a shift in power is reasonably assumed. As its economic power grows, internationalization of the RMB has become a key policy goal for China, especially after the 2008 financial crisis (Zhang 2009; Park 2010; China Securities Regulatory Commission [CSRC] 2014). This goal demonstrates China's desire for better integration and representation in the international economic community and signals its willingness to perform internal financial reforms and take more responsibility in global economic affairs.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

40. The Role of Europe in Enhancing Cooperative Security in Asia and the Pacific: A View from Japan

Author:: Takako Ueta
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Asia is a prominent export market for Europe while in the East and South China Seas, tensions continue. Europe has searched for its political role in Asia. This policy brief presents an analysis and argues the role of Europe in enhancing cooperative security in Asia and the Pacific, which would promote stability and peace there.
Topic:: Security, Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, Israel, and Asia

41. Impact of China‐Africa Investment Relations: The Case of Ethiopia

Author:: Alemayehu Geda and Atenafu G. Meskel
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: This study investigated the growing relation between Ethiopia and China in the last decade. It is possible for Chinese-Africa relations to be either complementary or competitive (or indeed both) and it has multifaceted features. Notwithstanding this multifaceted linkage, the study focused on one of the channels – the investment (FDI) channel. Other channels are explored depending on the degree at which they shed light on understanding the Chinese-Ethiopian investment relations, which is the subject of this study.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Ethiopia

42. The Impact of China‐Africa Investment Relations: The Case of Madagascar

Author:: Jean Razafindravonona, Eric Rakotomanana, and Jimmy Rajaobelina
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: The rapid and spectacular expansion of the Chinese economy in the recent past is, for African countries, an opportunity to take advantage of not only in terms of strengthening the South-South cooperation, but also of developing African economies. It is thus important to define the channels through which African countries would do so. It is with this goal in mind that the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) initiated the research project on the impact of the economic relation between China and sub-Saharan African countries.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Madagascar

43. The Impact of China‐Africa Trade Relations: The Case of the Republic of Congo

Author:: Jean‐Christophe Boungou Bazika
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: The relations between China and Congo are already old since they began in 1963. However since the beginning of the 2000s, the economic relations between the two countries are characterized by an unprecedented dynamism. Congo’s exports and imports with China recorded a leap of 179.38% and 309.21% respectively for the period 2001-2005. Such a trend pushed analysts to predict that the relations between Africa and China should have a significant impact and lead to upheavals in the structure of African economies. Two tendencies emerged in the literature: the first predicts that these relations would have a negative impact, in the sense that they would provoke a competition that African producers would not be able to bear. The second predicts that these relations would enable African countries to consolidate their growth, thanks to the diversification of trade and the installation of infrastructures which were lacking - such as roads, bridges, hydro-electric dams, drinking water purification plants, etc.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Republic of Congo

44. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: Policy Implications

Author:: Peter A. Petri
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), currently at an advanced stage of negotiation, began as a small agreement but now has big implications. The TPP would strengthen ties between Asia and the Americas, create a new template for the conduct of international trade and investment, and potentially lead to a comprehensive free trade area (FTA) in the Asia-Pacific. It could generate large benefits—greater than those expected from the World Trade Organization's (WTO) global Doha Development Agenda. This Policy Brief reports on our ongoing quantitative assessment (with FanZhai) of the TPP and other Asia-Pacific integration efforts.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: America, Europe, Israel, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

45. Inward foreign direct investment: Does it enable or constrain domestic technology entrepreneurship?

Author:: Saurav Pathak, André Laplume, and Emanuel Xavier-Oliveira
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Whether or not foreign direct investment (FDI) is essential for domestic technological and economic development remains a contentious question. The controversy is illustrated by comparing the Celtic and Asian Tigers experiences from 1995 to 2000. Based on IMF and World Bank data in constant prices, Ireland and China averaged an annual growth rate of 8% in GDP per capita. However, FDI per capita grew at an average pace of 98% per year in Ireland, while in China it decreased by 1% -- absolute values averaged US$ 3,397 versus US$ 144, respectively. This suggests that, rather than a one-policy-fits-all approach, customized policies are more appropriate; and, if any generalization can be made, it should be based on a country's stage of economic development.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Israel and Asia

46. To Stay Ahead of China, Stay Engaged in Asia

Author:: Michael Beckley
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Despite the hype about the rise of China, current power trends favor continued U.S. dominance. National power has three main material components: wealth, innovation, and military power. Over the last twenty years, China has fallen further behind the United States in all of these areas.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

47. U.S.-China Competition in Asia: Legacies Help America

Author:: Robert Sutter
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As Sino-American competition for influence enters a new stage with the Obama administration's re-engagement with Asia, each power's legacies in the region add to economic, military and diplomatic factors determining which power will be more successful in the competition. How the United States and China deal with their respective histories in regional affairs and the role of their non-government relations with the Asia- Pacific represent important legacies that on balance favor the United States.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, and Asia

48. All Roads Lead to the Indian Ocean

Author:: Sumathy Permal
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Maritime Institute of Malaysia
Abstract:: The Indian Ocean (IO) is the world’s third largest ocean with an area of 73.5 million sq. km or 28.5 million sq. miles. It is strategically located adjacent to Asia in the North, Australia to the East, Antarctica to the South, and Africa to the West. IO forms two large indentations in South Asia, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The ocean can be accessed through several chokepoints i.e., from the West via Cape of Good Hope and the Straits of Madagascar, from the North via the Bab el-Mandeb at the end of the Red Sea; the Sunda and Lombok-Straits and the Ombai-Wetar-Straits and the Straits of Hormuz at the exit of the Persian Gulf, from the East via the Straits of Malacca and, by way of geographical extension, to the South China Sea.
Topic:: Security, International Law, International Trade and Finance, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Malaysia, Asia, Arabia, and Kobani

49. A Regional Approach to WMD Nonproliferation in the Asia-Pacific

Author:: Togzhan Kassenova
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Asia-Pacific region epitomizes the type of proliferation challenges the international community faces. Globalization turned the region into one of the most important international trade hubs, the home to leading dual-use companies, and the anticipated site of the world's most significant growth in nuclear energy. While those trends are beneficial, they also create new sources of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Asia and Australia

50. A New Framework for US-China Economic Relations

Author:: Henry M. Paulson
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: For nearly four decades, there has been a broad consensus among US policy and opinion leaders that China's success will, ultimately, be good for the United States. But this long-standing consensus is now fraying. We need a new consensus, based on an updated framework that reflects the reality that China is no longer a "developing" economy but an increasingly established one.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Asia and North America

51. ASEAN in the Global Economy- An Enhanced Economic and Political Role

Author:: Anita Prakash and Ikumo Isono
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Established in 1967, ASEAN has travelled a long way from a group of five nations to a thriving and leading group of ten countries. Based on the progress in the implementation of the blueprints for building the ASEAN community by 2015, there is an enhanced role for the ASEAN in dealing with regional and global challenges. It is emerging as a services hub in the region and is the chosen destination for investments. At the end of Indonesia's chairmanship of ASEAN, which had set the theme 'ASEAN in a global community of nations', it is imperative to take a stock of the readiness of the region if it is well on its way to step into a truly global role in the near future, especially by its goal of becoming one community by 2015. With its strategic location, abundant natural resources, quality human resources and growing economies, ASEAN has engaged economically, by way of trade and investments, with all the large economies of the world. It has also gained strategic weight and drawn the attention of global players, both economically and politically. Its global engagement is best exemplified by the fact that 55 countries across the globe have appointed their envoys to the regional grouping and this number is growing. Sitting in the midst of giant economies like Japan, China and India, and with active economic relations with USA and the EU, ASEAN is now seeking its due share in the global economy and politics. This Policy Brief looks into the current global profile of ASEAN and brings out policy recommendations that would help ASEAN in finding its appropriate role in the global politics and economy.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Economy
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

52. Liberalization of Trade in Services: Toward a Harmonized ASEAN++ FTA

Author:: Hikari Ishido and Yoshifumi Fukunaga
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The East Asian countries are seriously discussing the consolidation of ASEAN+1 FTAs to develop so-called ASEAN++ FTA or RCEP. The detailed analysis of services chapters in the existing ASEAN+1 FTAs gives insights to services trade liberalization in this new trade agreement. In order for ASEAN and its FTA partners to gain substantial new commitments that are genuinely "plus" to the existing trade pacts, both WTO GATS and ASEAN+1 FTAs, ASEAN++ countries should aim at an ambitious level of liberalization much higher than the AFAS package 5. Also, the detailed analysis suggests a policy option of narrowing the types of services trade limitations, i.e., focusing on three types of limitations and hence improving transparency. Furthermore, we advocate for the needs of prioritizing production-related services sectors in the negotiation. Beyond ASEAN++ FTA, we briefly explain the critical roles of domestic regulatory reform.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Reform, Regulation, Services, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

53. Toward a Consolidated Preferential Tariff Structure in East Asia: Going beyond ASEAN+1 FTAs

Author:: Sio Yue Chia
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: ASEAN countries are discussing a possible template for trade in goods chapter of so-called ASEAN++ FTA (also known as RCEP). Analyses of tariff structures under the current ASEAN+1 FTAs give insights on possible approaches as well as challenges in this discussion. To meet 90% or 95% tariff elimination thresholds, both ASEAN countries and their FTA partners should make further efforts. When a "common concession" approach, which we advocate in this paper, is applied, the challenge becomes even larger as member countries should focus their policy discretion on a more limited number of sensitive products. These challenges, on the other hand, mean room for additional gains for potential users of the new agreement despite the existence of ASEAN+1 FTAs.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Tariffs
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

54. Trade Facilitation: The Way Forward for ASEAN and Its FTA Partners

Author:: Marie Isabelle Pellan Marn-Heong
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: ASEAN is working towards establishing a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with its FTA partners. All five existing ASEAN+1 FTAs contain provisions on trade facilitation. Although varying in their scope, specificity and depth of commitments, they tend to cover several core areas and affirm the application of international agreements, standards and instruments. A review of trade facilitation performance shows that there are great disparities among ASEAN countries and their FTA partners. Reform efforts in the area of trade facilitation could be tracked regularly through a set of specially-compiled indicators. The following policy recommendations could inform discussions on trade facilitation coverage in the context of a wider agreement between ASEAN and its FTA partners: (i) define a consistent set of trade facilitation principles; (ii) adopt specific trade facilitation measures; (iii) monitor performance in core trade facilitation areas and set targets; (iv) share best practices and implement capacity-building measures in priority areas; and (v) keep abreast of developments in the multilateral process.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

55. Security developments in East Asia: what implications for the EU?

Author:: Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: East Asia is home to some of the most important trading partners of the Union. China is foremost among these, ranking second only to the US - in 2009, EU-China trade totalled a massive €296 billion - while the EU is China's most important trading partner. Japan is the sixth-largest trade partner of the EU - in 2009, EU-Japan trade was almost €92 billion. South Korea is the EU's eighth-largest trade partner and the EU has become South Korea's second largest export destination - total trade in 2009 was above €53 billion. Furthermore, on 6 October 2010 the EU and South Korea signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) which is the most ambitious bilateral trade agreement ever negotiated by the EU, and the first with an Asian country.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Europe, Israel, Asia, and South Korea

56. Benevolent Benefactor or Insensitive Regulator? Tracing the Role of Government Policies in the Development of India's Automobile Industry

Author:: Rajnish Tiwari, Cornelius Herstatt, and Mahipat Ranawat
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: India's automobile industry has witnessed an impressive run of sus - tained growth in the past two decades. The total number of vehicles produced in fiscal year 1990–91 was only 2.3 million, but by fiscal year 2009–10 this number had swelled to 14.1 million. Similarly, the value of automotive products exported by India was only US$198 million in 1990, but by 2009 the value had increased nearly twenty-five-fold to US$5 billion, representing an average annual growth rate of 26 percent and catapulting India into the league of the top fifteen exporters of automotive products worldwide
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: India and Asia

57. China in the Pacific: the new banker in town

Author:: Fergus Hanson and Mary Fifita
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? China is now one of the Pacific\'s major donors. An analysis of its aid program in the region from 2005 to 2009 suggests it is reducing the grant component of its aid and increasing the soft loan proportion. China has pledged over $US 600 million to the Pacific since 2005 and debt burdening will become increasingly pressing as Chinese loans accumulate and the five-year grace periods expire. There appears to have been limited progress improving transparency.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

58. Rising to the occasion

Author:: Nazery Khalid
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Maritime Institute of Malaysia
Abstract:: The announcement by Minister of Transport, Dato' Seri Chong Kong Ha on 11 January 2011 that Malaysian p orts handled a total of 18. 4 mil. TEU in 2010 should bring a smile to port operators in the country.
Topic:: Security, International Trade and Finance, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

59. Turkey and Taiwan: The Relationship Seeking Its Ground

Author:: Selçuk Çolakoglu and Arzu Güler
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:: In the pre-1971 period, "One China" for Turkey was the Republic of China in Taiwan and the two countries were in cooperation against communist expansion. However, in 1971, though being reluctant for the expulsion of Taiwan from the United Nations, Turkey recognized People's Republic of China as the sole legal representative of China and pursued the "One China" policy in that respect. Thus, in the post-1971 period, Turkey's relations with Taiwan have continued only in terms of economy, trade and culture without recognizing it as an independent political unit. Beginning from early 1990s, Turkey began to take initiatives to increase its trade cooperation with Taiwan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Culture
Political Geography:: China, Turkey, Taiwan, Asia, and United Nations

60. Toward Greater Pragmatism? China\'s Approach to Innovation and Standardization

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 08-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: China\'s innovation policy and its perceived threat to American innovation and competitiveness is a hot topic in U.S.-China economic relations. The role of standardization, together with intellectual property rights and government procurement, are at the center of this conflict. Fundamental differences in their levels of development and economic institutions lead to quite different approaches to standards and innovation policy by the two countries. China\'s strategy of pursuing indigenous innovation based on local standards faces internal challenges in trying to bring together a diverse group of stakeholders with conflicting interests, as well as external pressures to adopt international standards. Enhanced cooperation on standards and innovation policies should be possible, once the United States and China accept that, while their economic and innovation systems are different, they are deeply interdependent. Both sides would benefit, creating new Chinese markets for American firms and easing technology licensing restrictions for Chinese firms.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, Asia, and North America

61. Fragmentation and Changes in the Asian Trade Network

Author:: Norihiko Yamano, Bo Meng, and Kiichiro Fukasaku
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The Asian trade network is increasingly fragmented, resulting in higher dependence on supplies of goods and services from neighbouring countries. The update OECD Input-Output and Bilateral Trade Databases allow us to examine the recent evolution of international trade networks involving ASEAN and East Asian countries at the 2-digit industry level. Using several globalization indicators, this Policy Brief highlights major changes in the pattern of Asia's trade in intermediate goods and services since the mid-1990s. It concludes by discussing implications for Asia's regional integration.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Regional Integration, Economic Cooperation, and Industry
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

62. The Economic Consequences of Shifting Away From Nuclear Energy

Author:: Ken Itakura
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: In the aftermath of the devastating nuclear fallout in Japan, there has been a harsh debate surrounding the role of nuclear energy in electricity generation. A changing role will have economic consequences on production, consumption, and international trade. To quantity these effects, we implemented simulations with a global CGE model and database. The simulation results show that reductions in the use of nuclear for electric power generation may have profound negative impacts on the Japanese economy. A nuclear accident at the Fukushima power plant changed the future direction of Japanese energy policy as well as Asian energy policy. These policies are integrated via technological, financial, and nuclear energy knowledge sharing activities within the region. The main objective of this policy brief is to shed some light on the following question: what would be the economic consequences of altering the source of power generation from nuclear to fossil fuels? This Japanese case study offers policy implications for both Japan and the region as a whole.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

63. Prospects for Implementing the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement

Author:: Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) was signed on June 30, 2007. Since then, the Korean National Assembly has vetted the agreement and the pact cleared a major legislative hurdle when the Foreign Affairs and Trade Committee approved it in April 2009; the full assembly has deferred final passage pending comparable action by the US Congress. In the United States, the ratification process has not yet begun; neither President George W. Bush nor President Barack Obama has submitted implementing legislation to Congress.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Law
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, Asia, and Korea

64. Indonesia and Australia: time for a step change

Author:: Fergus Hanson
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The relationship with Indonesia is one of Australia's most important but it is still not on a firm footing. Government-to-government ties have been strengthening but relations are focused around a mostly negative set of security-related issues. Business-to-business links are underdone and mutual public perceptions are poor. Without significant incentives to drive closer ties, one of Australia's most important relationships will continue to stagnate.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

65. Can Asia Learn from Brazil's Agricultural Success?

Author:: Paul Teng and Margarita Escaler
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Over the last four decades, Brazil has transformed its agricultural sector to become the first tropical agricultural giant and the first to challenge the dominance of the world's major food exporters. This paper examines the secrets of Brazil's success and ponders whether Asia should try to emulate the Brazilian model to help achieve food security for its people and contribute to an increased level of selfsufficiency in the region.
Topic:: Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, and Food
Political Geography:: Asia, Brazil, and Latin America

66. Deepening East Asian Economic Integration in Services

Author:: Phillippa Dee
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: In services markets, there may be legitimate reasons to regulate. Integration efforts should target regulatory restrictions that explicitly limit competition, and those that are intended to meet legitimate objectives, but are clearly more burdensome than need to be. In health and maritime, ASEAN is already relatively liberal by international standards, although there is still scope to promote cross-border trade and ease costly cabotage restrictions. In telecommunications, the residual foreign equity limits are hard to understand, given that past reforms and current technologies have ensured that most markets are already relatively competitive. In finance, there is substantially more to do, despite progress made during the Asian financial crisis. And in air transport, despite commitments to open skies, there is a need to further align the content of bilateral air services agreements with regional integration objectives.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Services
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

67. Comprehensive Asia Development Plan and Beyond -Growth Strategies for More Prosperous and Equitable East Asia

Author:: Takeshi Fujimoto, Shochiro Hara, and Fukunari Kimura
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Let's dream of our bright and prosperous future. In the year of 2020, sixteen East Asia Summit (EAS) member countries can reach doubled per capita income compared with their income level in 2008 with proper policy guidance; eight countries may join developed countries with per capita income exceeding US$10,000, five countries could enjoy the status of newly industrialized countries with per capita income between US$3,000 and US$10,000, and three countries would have per capita income above US$1,000. The Comprehensive Asia Development Plan (CADP) provides immediate policy guidance for industrialization through the development of logistics and other economic infrastructure. Beyond CADP, EAS member countries will face novel policy challenges that developing countries in the world have not broken through yet. This policy brief claims that establishing four virtuous cycles will be the key and we must have the courage to meet a number of policy challenges.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: East Asia and Asia

68. The Future of the Chiang Mai Initiative: An Asian Monetary Fund?

Author:: C. Randall Henning
Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In September 1997, at the outset of the last global financial crisis, the Japanese Ministry of Finance proposed the creation of an Asian Monetary Fund. Although this particular proposal was scuttled, the idea of a common regional fund on which East Asian governments might draw in times of financial turmoil survives. The region's disaffection from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stemming from the 1997–98 crisis, sustains this idea and a desire on the part of individual countries to self-insure with large holdings of foreign exchange reserves. East Asian governments and central banks have created a set of bilateral swap arrangements (BSAs) dubbed the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) and are negotiating among themselves to build these BSAs into a more comprehensive facility. Some Asian officials hope that such a facility could underpin exchange rate cooperation and monetary integration in the region, although such proposals remain for the moment long-term visions.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Japan, Israel, and Asia

69. While global FDI falls, China's outward FDI doubles

Author:: Ken Davies
Publication Date:: 05-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: In 2008 global FDI fell by around 20%, while outward FDI from China nearly doubled. This disparity is likely to continue in 2009 and 2010 as China invests even more overseas. What is driving this continuing surge in China's outward FDI?
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China and Asia

70. The Global Economic Crisis and Its Implications for Asian Economic Cooperation

Author:: Michael G. Plummer
Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The economic crisis of 2008–09 is the second major crisis in just over a decade that Asia has endured. Unlike the Asian crisis of 1997–98, however, the current crisis originated mainly in the West. Asia's excessive reliance on net exports as the principal driver of economic growth since the 1997–98 crisis rendered it especially vulnerable to external shocks, and most Asian countries have paid dearly. The more open the economy, the more vulnerable it is to such shocks. The newly industrialized Asian economies (Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan), which are among the most open and dynamic in the world, are expected to contract by about 6 percent in 2009.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong

71. A New Geography of Knowledge in the Electronics Industry? Asia\'s Role in Global Innovation Networks

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Political debates about globalization are focused on offshore outsourcing of manufacturing and services. But these debates neglect an important change in the geography of knowledge––the emergence of global innovation networks (GINs) that integrate dispersed engineering, product development, and research activities across geographic borders.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Asia

72. Pacific Asia and the Asia Pacific: The Choices for APEC

Author:: C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:: 07-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum comprises 21 developed and developing economies that surround the Pacific Rim. The organization was created in 1989 and holds annual Leaders' Meetings that bring together its heads of government. In this policy brief, I assess the record of the APEC over the 20 years of its existence and discuss the world environment in which APEC is likely to be operating in the next 20 years, with a particular focus on the major change in global institutional arrangements implied by the replacement of the Group of Seven/Eight (G-7/8) by the Group of Twenty (G-20) as the chief steering committee for the world economy and, within that group and other international economic organizations, the increasingly central role of an informal and de facto Group of Two (G-2) between China and the United States.
Topic:: International Relations, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

73. China's Changing Outbound Foreign Direct Investment Profile: Drivers and Policy Implications

Author:: Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann
Publication Date:: 06-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In 1967 Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber published Le defi americain, a call to beware of American multinationals buying up the world. In the 1980s and 1990s it was Japan's turn, spawning books like Clyde Prestowitz's 1993 Trading Places: How We Are Giving Our Future to Japan. Today it is China's outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) that elicits the most anxiety China's OFDI has reached commercially and geoeconomically significant levels and begun to challenge international investment norms and affect international relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China, America, and Asia

74. Why Is the East Asia Industrial Corridor Needed?

Author:: Fukunari Kimura and Izuru Kobayashi
Publication Date:: 01-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The East Asia Industrial Corridor Project, in particular the Southern Corridor and its extension, can be a path-breaking effort for attaining both deepening economic integration and narrowing development gaps. New economic thoughts claim the necessity of comprehensive approach in which various policy modes and a number of stake holders are effectively coordinated.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:: East Asia and Asia

75. Food Issues and Regional Cooperation in Dynamic East Asia

Author:: Fukunari Kimura, Daisuke Hiratsuka, and Kazunari Tsukada
Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: How can Asia avoid another panic in international markets of our staple crops, particularly rice?Lessons from the last food crisis in 2006-2008.
Topic:: Security, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Food
Political Geography:: Asia

76. Trade Facilitation in the ASEAN Economic Community

Author:: Christopher Findlay
Publication Date:: 11-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Trade facilitation refers to the reduction of costs in the trading system. Significant cost reductions are possible, but policy reform and international cooperation are required to capture those gains. ASEAN has a key role to play in that work. Suggestions for the ASEAN scorecard are to reinforce or add commitments to, and then monitor the implementation of (a) National Single Windows as a prerequisite to the ASEAN Single Window, (b) a web-based databank of trade regulations that is regularly updated, (c) streamlined and harmonized procedures, starting with the Customs declaration (or 'SAD') form, and (d) mutually recognized technical standards. In terms of performance measures it is recommended to (1) have ASEAN customs authorities report regularly and in a comparable manner on clearance time through customs, (2) maintain and report updates of a logistics restrictiveness index for all countries in each year which has been developed in this project, and (3) recalculate adjusted cif/fob ratios as measures of trade costs, using the methodology developed in this project.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, World Bank, and Tariffs
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

77. Breaking the Suicide Pact: U.S.–China Cooperation on Climate Change

Author:: William Chandler
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The United States and China seemingly remain locked in a climate suicide pact, each arguing the other is the reason for inaction. U.S.–China climate cooperation is urgently needed to avert climate disaster. The current situation of the energy sectors in the United States and China offers a solution. China and the United States can set and cooperate to achieve national goals and implement enforceable measures. If this U.S.– China policy experiment works, China and the United States could develop packages of policies and measures, test them for efficacy, correct them, and share them with other countries.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

78. EU Trade Policy: Approaching a Crossroads

Author:: Roderick Abbott
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: In an important shift, inspired partly by drift in the Doha Round negotiations, the EU announced in 2006 that it would seek new free trade area arrangements with fast-growing economies, particularly in Asia. The plan, which ended a moratorium on the launch of bilateral trade talks, in place since 1996, was billed explicitly as a contribution to the EU's own growth and jobs strategy as well as a market-opening exercise. However, the policy has so far been no more effective than multilateral negotiations in producing concrete results. Negotiations with South Korea and ASEAN have made only slow progress, while the state of talks with India remains unclear. The EU spent most of 2007 renegotiating long-standing agreements with African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries in an effort to satisfy WTO rules. Meanwhile, the EU's partnership agreements with China and Russia have expired, and appropriate successor arrangements are still being sought. In both cases, a number of important bilateral problems and strains will need to be dealt with. With its various trade negotiations treading water, the EU may need to review its options. One could be a more aggressive pursuit of market access, modelled on the US approach. Alternatively, the EU's traditional preference for multilateral engagement may reassert itself.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Caribbean

79. An EU-Korea Free Trade Area: Playing Catch-Up or Taking the Lead?

Author:: Jim Rollo
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Both Korea and the EU are pursuing free trade areas (FTAs) aggressively as part of their trade policy strategies. Korea is much further down the road. There are strong incentives on both sides to conclude an agreement. However, specific issues and EU's desire to do at least as well as, and preferably better than, the Korea–US FTA may delay or even preclude success. Korea and the EU are not principal suppliers to each other, so while an agreement is predicted to be economically favourable to both sides, the effects are not expected to be very large. Korea has the higher barriers and is expected to make the bigger economic gains. There are sensitive sectors on both sides, notably automobiles for the EU and services and processed foods for Korea. Both sides have important agricultural constituencies to protect. Korea's key role in the East Asian production system suggests that rules of origin could be an area of particular difficulty in the negotiation.
Topic:: Agriculture and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, East Asia, Asia, and South Korea

80. China's Economic Rise -- Fact and Fiction

Author:: Albert Keidel
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: China's economy will surpass that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a new report by Albert Keidel concludes. China's rapid growth is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. In China's Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, Keidel examines China's likely economic trajectory and its implications for global commercial, institutional, and military leadership.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

81. So what? Matching policy to Australian interests in West Asia

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Before 2001, Australian policy in the region defined here as West Asia – that stretching from India's western borders across to the eastern shores of the Mediterranean, encompassing Southwest Asia, the Persian Gulf and the Levant – focused on two broad objectives: supporting American-led efforts to promote regional stability, and securing opportunities for Australian exports.
Topic:: International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia and Australia

82. Multitrack Integration in East Asian Trade: Noodle Bowl or Matrix?

Author:: Peter A. Petri
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: East Asian trade agreements are often described as a complicated "noodle bowl," which shows links in the region as a snarled, overlapping and intertwined mass. But this is a misleading representation--Asia's regional agreements may in fact be creating an order of a different sort, building the foundations for a stronger regional trading system. Asian trade arrangements can be more constructively seen in terms of a trade agreements matrix, in which multiple negotiations produce an orderly progression of agreements to liberalize all potential bilateral relationships and move the region toward a coherent system of freer trade. The various approaches to deeper economic integration--regional arrangements, trans-Pacific agreements, and global engagement--are complementary paths that should eventually lead to an open global trading system. East Asia is of growing importance in the global marketplace, and adopting an aggressive multitrack strategy--as the region appears to be doing--may be the fastest route toward a new global framework.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Israel and Asia

83. China and the Depreciating U.S. Dollar

Author:: Richard C. K. Burdekin
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Over the past five years, U.S. exports to China have been dwarfed by imports from that country, with the resulting trade deficit igniting a bout of China bashing reminiscent of the Japan bashing of the 1980s. A major culprit in the trade imbalance, according to many U.S. analysts and policymakers, is China's currency: the renminbi, they say, is too cheap relative to the dollar. Some are calling for high tariffs on Chinese goods or for further exchange-rate adjustment that would revalue the renminbi significantly upward, making Chinese goods less competitive. But with just 10.4 percent of total U.S. trade attributed to China in the first half of 2005, it is unrealistic that any renminbi exchange-rate adjustment could rein in the burgeoning U.S. trade deficit. And if the adjustment were drastic the United States could be the big loser: driving China out of the market for U.S. treasuries would most likely have calamitous consequences, not only for the dollar but for U.S. credit markets and for the U.S. economy in general.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, and North America

84. The Doha Round after Hong Kong

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Trade ministers from member countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO) convened in Hong Kong in December 2005 to jump-start the flagging Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. The Hong Kong ministerial was not a complete bust. But ministers accomplished only the minimum necessary to keep the Doha Round moving forward—toward an undetermined and probably distant conclusion.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

85. What Could Go Wrong?

Author:: Harry Harding
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: China has done remarkably well in its development over the last twenty-five years. It has achieved and sustained high rates of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. It has achieved a significant place in the international economy. It is widely regarded as a major power, not only in Asia but also increasingly on a global stage. Looking ahead, however, things could go wrong – possibly quite seriously wrong – for China, and if China experiences serious problems, its size and its expanded role in the world mean that there could be serious consequences for the broader international community as well.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

86. Comments on China as a Regional Player

Author:: Edward J. Lincoln
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: China ought to be able to produce a relatively high economic growth rate over at least the next decade. There are a number of problems confronting the economy, but one of the great lessons of the past half-century of world economic growth is how much growth can result even when economies have considerable institutional flaws. Economists usually speak about the need to get the “fundamentals” right to produce economic growth, but we should also keep in mind that nations need not get have a perfect set of institutions and rules to generate growth.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: China and Asia

87. Taiwan In Search of a Strategic Consensus

Author:: Banning Garrett, Franklin Kramer, and Jonathan M. Adams
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: At the beginning of 2006, Taiwan is confronted with difficult choices that it currently seems unprepared to face. Cross-Strait tensions have diminished in the last year and Taiwan's economy has grown at an annualized rate of about 3.6 percent, which is respectable if not robust by East Asian standards. Taiwan, however, also faces an East Asian future which likely includes an increasingly important role for its relations with the Mainland as China becomes an ever more important economic and political factor regionally and globally.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, East Asia, and Asia

88. Banking Crises in East Asia: The Price Tag of Liberalization?

Author:: Ilan Noy
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The banking crises that swept through East Asia in 1997Â– 1998 set off dramatic recessions in the affected countries and imposed heavy costs on the domestic taxpayers. Fear of further crises prompted searches causes and early warning signs. It soon became apparent that liberalization the domestic financial sectors of the countries in crises contributed to genesis of these crises, but policymakers, regulators, and economists disagree about the reason for this. Initial scrutiny fell on unregulated international capital flows, but a comprehensive study suggests that liberalization can to financial instability either because of insufficient regulation of the financial sector or because of erosion of previously granted monopolies of existing banks. These possibilities suggest varying policy implications for the current state domestic financial systems in East Asia, including the challenges inherent opening up ChinaÂ's banking system to foreign competition as mandated in ChinaÂ–World Trade Organization accession agreement.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Israel and Asia

89. Oxfam Publishing: No Soft Landing: As China opens its markets, US subsidies are making life hard for cotton farmers

Author:: Phoenix Leung Pui Fung
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Cotton is an important crop for some of the poorest areas of China, and millions of cotton farmers depend on it for their livelihoods. Cotton's high economic returns have helped, and continue to help, bring many farmers in the poor western provinces of Gansu and Xinjiang out of poverty. Cotton production is not only essential to the development of China's textile industry; it is also a labour-intensive crop that demands a large workforce in rural areas. It has thus contributed to easing the pressures of rural underdevelopment in China, at a time when the country is faced with seriously high levels of surplus labour and lack of development potential in rural areas.
Topic:: Globalization and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

90. Oxfam Publishing: Mind the Gap: Countdown to Viet Nam's Accession to the WTO

Author:: Mary Kirkbride
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Viet Nam is entering its final stages of accession negotiations. Although it is unlikely that it will achieve the goal of joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) by the time of the Hong Kong Ministerial Conference in December, negotiators want a swift end to the process. Analysis of progress madebetween the two Working Party meetings of April and September 2005 reveals that Working Party members are continuing to demand further concessions from the Vietnamese negotiators. If agreed to, these concessions could have potentially damaging consequences for Viet Nam's ability to safeguard the livelihoods of its poorest people.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Asia and Vietnam

91. Is the IMF business model still valid?

Author:: Ángel Ubide
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Since the Asian crisis, the IMF has undergone a deep process of soul searching, trying to extract lessons from the experience. External criticism has been abundant, and basically all three of the IMF's main areas of work – surveillance, crisis prevention and resolution, and poverty reduction – have been called into question. Several years later, there is a feeling that not much has been achieved, and key questions remain unanswered. As the world business cycle matures, and thus the likelihood of further crises slowly increases, it is critical for the stability of the world financial system to discuss what the IMF's business model should look like.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

92. A Currency Basket for East Asia, Not Just China

Author:: John Williamson
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: China recently announced that it is adopting a basket of currencies as the peg for its exchange rate instead of the US dollar. This announcement raises questions of how such a system works, whether other East Asian countries would be advised to follow China in adopting a basket numeraire, and whether it would be advantageous to these countries if they were all to adopt the same basket. This brief answers these questions.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

93. China and the World Economy Workshop. Conference Summary

Author:: Robert Kapp
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Peter Bottelier, the principal presenter of this topic, opened by noting that much discussion now surrounds the evolving “new line” embodied in China's economic plans for the next five years. The three agricultural questions, self-innovation, regional adjustment, opening up of a win-win “harmonious society,” and economizing on energy use: what do these and other much-discussed new terms really mean?
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

94. China as Producer: Chinese Industry After 25 Years of Reform

Author:: Thomas Rawski
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Beginning with the start of reform in the late 1970s, China's industry has recorded impressive growth of output, labor productivity, and exports as well as dramatic upgrading of the quality and variety of output. These gains have occurred in spite of difficulties arising from lethargic state enterprises, inadequate corporate governance, excessive official intervention, corruption, and weak financial institutions.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

95. China as Consumer

Author:: Kenneth Lieberthal
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: This article seeks to examine two key issues that will be major drivers of consumption in China over the coming five years: urbanization and environmental amelioration. Whether the issues identified will be the largest factors over this time frame remains unclear, but each of these two areas warrants considerable attention as a very significant contributor to the future of consumer demand in China.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

96. China as Employer and Consumer: Economic Outlook for the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010)

Author:: Arthur R. Kroeber
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: China's impressive economic growth of the past quarter century (9.4 percent average annual real GDP growth between 1980 and 2004, by official figures) is not miraculous; on the contrary, it can largely be explained by conventional models of economic development.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

97. Hu Jintao's Outbox

Author:: Joseph Fewsmith
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: China has now sustained two and a half decades of high-speed growth. This growth has been even faster with regard to exports and China's role in international trade. Domestically, a capitalist tendency seems to be everywhere, while internationally the rise of China, whether peaceful or not, seems – at least to some – to threaten Western jobs, prosperity, and the international order. The focus of this paper, however, is not this question of whether or how China poses a threat to the West but rather an old (but new) question of how this “capitalist” conversion is compatible with the continued rule of a communist party. This is a question of considerable practical import, as people contemplate what the continued growth of the Chinese economy might mean for the political stability of that country, but it is also a question of considerable theoretical import: Leninist parties that sought to “include” external interests, it was argued, are on the way to collapse. It is only a matter of time. The time frame for China has lasted longer than theoreticians had supposed, though they might yet prove to be right – perhaps the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has lasted longer than people imagined but it might still be on the road to collapse. This point of view would find supporters, both in the West and in China, but even if they prove right, it is important to inquire more deeply about what is going on in China, whether institutions are being created, and if so whether they might provide a foundation for a post-communist China or whether they suggest a more chaotic future.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

98. The international economy in 2003: managing economic imbalances in an integrated world

Author:: Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: This Issues Brief suggests that a key theme over the past year has been the management of external imbalances in a world economy that is not only increasingly integrated but which is simultaneously undergoing a sustained geographic shift in the distribution of economic weight towards Asia. Using this theme as an organising principle, it reviews several major economic developments including US current account adjustment, international exchange rate adjustment in response to that process, growing Sino-US trade tensions, the increasing focus on international outsourcing and the stresses facing the current multilateral trading round. The Brief concludes by arguing that many of these same themes will influence international economic prospects over the coming year.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

99. China Bashing 2004

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Yee Wong
Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: On April 26, 2004, Senator John Kerry released his six-point trade pro - gram, “Trade Enforcement: Asleep at the Wheel,” and conspicuously targeted China for violating worker rights, dumping, and supporting “illegal currency manipulation” (Kerry 2004). Five days earlier, senior Bush administration officials met with Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi to settle a few trade disputes (e.g., WiFi) but did not resolve the most contentious ones (exchange rates, semiconductors, and labor rights).
Topic:: Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

100. Asian Oil Market Outlook: Role of the Key Players

Author:: Jeffrey Brown and Kang Wu
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Asia Pacific region's dynamic oil market is marked by strong growth in consumption, declining regional oil production, and over capacity in its highly competitive oil-refining sector. Its "key players" are China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea—a group that includes the region's five top consumers and three of its major producers—and developments in these countries will have commercial and strategic implications for the whole region. On the consumption side, Japan's slow growth in demand has failed to dampen regional growth, which is now driven by China and India's fast growing thirst for oil. On the supply side, Indonesia's inevitable transition to a net oil importer highlights the trend toward growing dependence on Middle East oil, which already comprises 42–90 percent of imports among the key players. In response to this trend, China, Japan, and South Korea are pushing to acquire overseas oil reserves, with Japan and China already locked in a fierce competition for projected Russian supplies—a type of struggle that will likely become more commonplace.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Indonesia, Middle East, India, Asia, and South Korea

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS