Content Type: Journal Article - CIAO Search Results

351. Characterizing Future Authoritarian Governance in the Space Domain

Author:: Julian G. Waller
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: Traditionally, discussions of governance beyond Earth have largely been held to the purview of debates about space law and global governance regimes. Yet, the priority of space exploration among ambitious, tech-industry associated billionaires and its continued potential for militarization suggest that a more dynamic approach may be needed, given that state-sponsorship of extraterrestrial colonial projects may be more akin to partnerships between private and public actors rather than nation-states assuming traditional roles as sole sources of decision-making. Permanent settlements in space will require forms of localized government that may look distinct from contemporary models of political order. This article thus asks a provocative question associated with the empirical record of human colonization and settlement in prior eras: What sort of authoritarian governance is most likely to form in human space settlements during the medium term? Reviewing variations on political order in small-scale colonial settlements in light of recent conceptual work on authoritarian rule, the article identifies three theoretical models of governance that may emerge once beyond Earth settlements become permanent fixtures of human society.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Space, Militarization, Space Governance, Political Order, and Corporate Spacefaring
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Space

352. Kim Jong united How a Future North Korean ASAT Threat Makes Strange International Bedfellows and Novel Opportunity

Author:: Max A. Schreiber
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: While North Korea does not have a formal direct ascent antisatellite (DA-ASAT) weapon, its missile technology provides some baseline technology to make one, and a DA-ASAT program furthers the ruling Kim Jong Un regime’s strategic goals. Thus, the United States should prepare for this threat now. This article argues that North Korean DA-ASAT weapon is a unique political-military challenge, in that China and Russia—traditional North Korean allies but major space-faring nations—are also threatened by this weapon because of the indiscriminate space debris it creates. This creates aligned interests between the United States, China, and Russia to stop a North Korean DA-ASAT program, and as this article asserts, the best way to do that is to cooperate in slowly advancing the North Korean space program with nonthreatening technology in return for the country abandoning DA-ASAT research.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Space, Satellites, and Strategic Weapons
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, and Indo-Pacific

353. A Call for Space-Domain Intelligence Training

Author:: Genelle M. Martinez
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: U.S. Space Force intelligence initial skills training (IST) currently occurs via U.S. Air Force pipelines. However, as the Space Force matures, it must take ownership of its training programs. Consolidating guardian intelligence initial skills training under the purview of the newest Service fosters a critical space-domain focused mindset and guardian culture at the outset of a member’s career.
Topic:: Intelligence, Culture, Armed Forces, Space, Training, Space Force, and Identity
Political Geography:: United States of America and Space

354. Marine Corps and Space Force Integration for a More Lethal Joint Task Force to Counter China

Author:: Josh Bringhurst
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The objective of this article is to highlight the unique capabilities of the Marine Corps and Space Force and how they can function as part of a Joint Task Force (JTF) operating within U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM). More importantly, it aims to discuss the need to establish a Joint force structure and package that minimizes the risk should the United States need to quickly shift from competition to a crisis or, worse, conflict with China. Determining command relationships, allocated resources, and authorities as part of a JTF structure and package will be critical to quickly transition such a force in response to a crisis or engage the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in conflict.
Topic:: Space Force, Strategic Competition, Joint Operations, People's Liberation Army (PLA), US Marine Corps, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

355. The Soviet Sputniks and American Fears about the Militarization of Outer Space

Author:: Tom Wilkinson
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The publication of the U.S. Department of Defense’s 2020 Defense Space Strategy and its recognition of outer space as a “distinct warfighting domain,” along with recent media discussion regarding the militarization of outer space by powers such as Russia and China, seems to portend a new era of outer space relations. The so-called “final frontier” that has for years been treated as a realm of scientific and civilian exploration with a spirit of cooperation appears poised to transform into a domain of military competition. The early fears centered around three key themes: the possible terrestrial impact of rocket technology capable of launching a satellite, the unknown applications of satellite technology, and the assumption that the launch of the Sputniks had opened up a new frontier, one that the United States had failed to reach at the time of the Soviet achievements. An examination of these themes and how Americans discussed the Sputniks reveals that while the domain of space looks incredibly different in the twenty-first century, discussion surrounding the militarization of outer space has a longer history that could offer insights for contemporary discussion.
Topic:: Cold War, History, Disarmament, Space, Militarization, Sputnik, and Dwight D. Eisenhower
Political Geography:: Soviet Union, United States of America, and Space

356. The Void Above: The Future of Space Warfare and a Call to Update the Rule of International Space Law

Author:: Alan Cunningham
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: In an age where space warfare is becoming more likely and a militarized space is already a reality, it is imperative to develop a strong legal framework to try and prevent nation-states from engaging in warfare. By implementing legal standards, improving on the existing legal framework, and taking input from outside legal sources, outer space can be made safer and the potential for armed conflict more protected against.
Topic:: International Relations, International Law, International Security, Military Affairs, Space, Warfare, and Space Law
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Space

357. Military Spacesteading: Space-based Logistics Mediums for Future Beachheads

Author:: Robert Jr. Billard
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article explores the concept of spacesteading as it pertains to military operations. Specifically, it expands on both potential and emerging technologies that could enable logistics nodes to be positioned in geosynchronous and geostationary orbit above the Earth to enable to rapid deployment of equipment. This article proposes that space domain domination would allow for a superior alternative to existing expeditionary logistics caches such as maritime prepositioning force ships and the Marine Corps Prepositioning Program–Norway. A pair of vignettes help to illustrate the value in the military enabling logistics capabilities within the space domain. While this article largely focuses on space-based logistics applications for the U.S. Marine Corps, these efforts would have far-reaching impacts to the whole of the U.S. military and beyond.
Topic:: Maritime, Logistics, Space Operations, Space Elevator, and Carbon Nanotubes
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

358. Malaysia’s “Triadic Maritime Diplomacy” Strategy in the South China Sea

Author:: Bama Andika Putra
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The importance of safeguarding Malaysia’s Kasawari gas field in the South China Sea has reoriented Malaysia’s maritime diplomatic strategies vis-à-vis China’s growing assertiveness in this semi-enclosed sea. China’s increased sea infringements through its coast guards and maritime constabulary forces have led Malaysia to adopt what this article coins as “triadic maritime diplomacy,” a combination of coercive, persuasive, and co-operative maritime diplomacy. Malaysia’s maritime diplomatic strategies thus act more as a set of contradictory policies rather than a decisive attempt to defend Malaysia’s sovereignty at sea. This article engages in qualitative inquiry to address two central empirical questions: Firstly, how has Malaysia managed the delicate balance between safeguarding its sovereignty at sea and maintaining close economic ties with China? Secondly, what accounts for Malaysia’s persistent “downplaying” stance despite the escalating intrusions around the Luconia Shoals, particularly concerning the Kasawari gas field? The findings of this study reveal three key aspects: Firstly, Malaysia’s prioritization of developing the Kasawari gas field has necessitated the adoption of seemingly contradictory policies, employing coercive maritime measures utilizing its naval assets while simultaneously adopting rhetoric that downplays crises. Secondly, Malaysia’s maritime diplomacy can be aptly characterized as “triadic” strategies, encompassing the adoption of coercive, persuasive, and co-operative approaches. Lastly, these seemingly inconsistent policies are a strategic response aimed at accommodating both immediate and prospective economic opportunities involving China, all while signaling its nonaligned stance to major global powers.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Gas, Maritime, Energy, Kasawari Gas Fields, and Luconia Shoals
Political Geography:: China, Malaysia, Asia, and South China Sea

359. Contractual Origins of Anti-Americanism: Pew 2013 Results

Author:: Cem Birol
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Economic Norms Theory (ENT) implies that anti-modernist and anti-market values flourish in countries where the central authority poorly monitors contracts that bind economic transactions. Decades of research show that ENT astutely predicts civil war and interstate war incidents, as well as people’s support for war, and suicide bombing in defense of Islam. This paper investigates the association between contract enforcement and anti-Americanism, which is the ENT’s core, yet is a statistically under-evaluated implication. Accordingly, in countries with poor economic contract monitoring, power-contending elites can attribute the resultant loss of prosperity to the USA and relatedly spread anti-American values among citizens. It is the urban poor who are cognitively most available to adopt such elite-driven anti-Americanism since they tend to be hurt most socially and economically by unfulfilled market contracts. To investigate this argument, I statistically estimate random intercept models on a sample of Pew Global Attitudes Project’s 2013 survey results. I observe that a three-way interaction among individuals’ urbanity, poverty, and their nations’ poor contract enforcement indicators increase anti-Americanism.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, Urban, Survey, Economic Norms Theory (ENT), Hierarchical Modelling, and Anti-Americanism
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

360. Theorising the Hedging Strategy: National Interests, Objectives, and Mixed Foreign Policy Instruments

Author:: Iván Gonzalez-Pujol
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Hedging is a comprehensive foreign policy strategy that mixes competitive and cooperative approaches and is used to manage competing national interests during conditions of uncertainty over the future distribution of power. However, the literature is characterised by a lack of consensus on the central features of hedging, which leads to contradictions in how the concept of hedging is applied. First, this paper assesses the definition of hedging, identifies three rival approaches, and links the risks and opportunities of hedging with uncertainty over the future international distribution of power. Second, it discusses how the various interpretations of hedging have inspired different analytical models. Finally, it explains hedging as a theoretically intermediate and analytically mixed strategy. These claims are supported by studying the Asia-Pacific region, where hedging has become the dominant strategy for coping with the uncertainty surrounding the future distribution of power stemming from the rise of China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, Hedging, Uncertainty, and Competition
Political Geography:: China and Asia-Pacific

361. Examining Relationships Among Turkey, Israel, and the United States in Terms of Interest Similarity

Author:: Zuhal Çalık Topuz and Jonathan Michael Spector
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Interest similarity is defined as the affinity of national interests in global affairs. This research aims to examine the interest similarity among Turkey, Israel, and the US. Interest similarity of countries has been examined by taking into account the factors of (a) alliance portfolio, (b) MID data, and (c) UNGA voting records. Quantitative data regarding these factors have been analyzed with correlation and regression models. The findings show that the interest similarities among these three countries have a statistically significant correlation. This research also examines the relationships between the three states to better understand which factors affect their interest similarity, and how. Thus, this study contributes to the political science and international relations literature by analyzing quantitative data while examining the interest similarity among Turkey, Israel, and the US.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Affairs, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

362. Searching for a Place in Global IR Through Exceptionalism: Turkey and the Mediation for Peace Initiative

Author:: Radiye Funda Karadeniz and Gonca Oğuz Gök
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This study is an attempt to rethink exceptionalism both in Turkish Foreign Policy and in Global IR. It critically engages with Turkey’s contribution to the Global IR debate within the discourse of exceptionalism in Turkish foreign policy over its role in the Mediation for Peace Initiative (MPI). Following Nymalm and Plagemann (2019), we rethink exceptionalism used in Global IR, critically analyzing Turkey’s role in the MPI within the framework of internationalist exceptionalism. In doing so, we aim to unbox exceptionalism in Global IR and understand how some exceptional foreign policy discourses of non-Western states may contribute to the interconnectedness between regional worlds, as well as the circulation of ideas and norms between the global and local levels.
Topic:: International Relations, Peace, Mediation, and Exceptionalism
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

363. Sanctions and Postcolonial Statecraft in Iran: Resisting the Iran Libya Sanctions Act and Beyond

Author:: Andrew Thomas
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Though economic sanctions are designed to weaken and isolate their target for the stated purpose of policy change, in the case of Iran they have often invigorated its desire to defy Western coercion and domination. Since the Islamic revolution this has led to multiple political standoffs, including notably during the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad administration and the post-nuclear deal standoff with the United States (US). Through sanctions, the West has often been unwilling to accept little less than a grand bargain on Iranian foreign policy, which has informed and contributed to a postcolonial narrative of resistance in the Iranian state. This narrative has served as an integral tool of Iranian statecraft in an effort to bolster the leadership’s legitimacy. By looking at elite discourse and Iranian government responses to the Iran Libya Sanctions Act during Ahmadinejad’s government and the Trump Administration’s Maximum Pressure campaign, this article highlights narratives of postcolonial resistance in Iran’s response to US sanctions, in an effort to explain why sanctions often push them further away from acquiescence to international norms.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Sanctions, Iran, and Resistance
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Libya, and United States of America

364. WEER 2023 | Ukraine at War: Why did it happen, when will it end? (Full Issue)

Author:: Henryk Litwin, Yevgeniya Gaber, Mykola Riabchuk, Ola Hnatiuk, and Aliaksei Kazharski
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: From June 28th to June 30th, 2023, the nineteenth Warsaw East European Conference “Ukraine at War” took place. It was attended by a diverse group of scholars from Belarus, Canada, Great Britain, Germany, Lithuania, Poland, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, the United States, Finland, and Estonia. The conference opened with an inaugural lecture titled “Why a Ukrainian Victory Matters?” delivered by Professor Marius Janukonis, Director of the Strategic Management and Analysis Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania. The closing presentation, titled “Russia’s War on Ukraine: Where Are We Now and What Next?”, was prepared by Professor Yevgeniya Gaber from Ukraine, representing the Atlantic Council in Turkey. The highlight of the conference was three round table discussions. On the first day, Professor David Sacko moderated a discussion on “Ukraine at War. Security in the Region.” On the second day, there was an exchange of views on “Rebuilding Ukraine. Key Challenges for the War and Post-War Period,” led by Dr. Ernest Wyciszkiewicz. Finally, on the closing day of WEEC, Professor Mykola Riabchuk chaired a round table titled “The Toxic Spell of ‘Imperial Knowledge’ and Challenges of Decolonization.” Throughout the event, there were 13 panel discussions during which 41 papers were presented. The titles of the panels reflect the breadth of thematic discussions during the conference, listed in the order they occurred: 1. Around Ukraine. Post-Soviet Space Before and During the War 2. Challenges and Diagnoses of the Future 3. Consequences of the War 4. Public Diplomacy 5. Russia towards the War 6. Ukraine – Sources of Resistance 7. Ukraine and Security Problems in the Continental Dimension 8. Ukraine in the Eyes of Russia. Ukraine in the Eyes of Europe 9. War Migrants 10. Belarusian Memory Policy. Report on “European Network for Belarus” project 11. Migration from Post-Soviet countries in Poland: trends, challenges, and prospects 12. War Narratives in the Media. Unfortunately, only a portion of the conference participants submitted their article texts to the organizers based on their presentations. Therefore, only partial materials from WEEC 2023 are published here. Readers will find the concluding lecture by Prof. Yevgeniya Gaber and a report on the round table discussions “The Toxic Spell of ‘Imperial Knowledge’ and Challenges of Decolonization,” comprising texts from the participants, containing the main theses of their presentations. Additionally, 10 articles from panel participants are included. While this compilation may not provide a comprehensive account of the conference, it serves as evidence of its thematic diversity and provides a glimpse into this significant event for Eastern European studies.
Topic:: History, Geopolitics, Colonialism, Ideology, Decolonization, Totalitarianism, Vladimir Putin, Armed Conflict, Identity, Soviet Union, Public Diplomacy, Forced Migration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

365. The Impact of Climate and Geopolitical Changes on Russia’s Energy Policies in The Arctic Region

Author:: Ferdi Güçyetmez and Sina Kısacık
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: After the Industrial Revolution, the energy resources under the polar ice sheets became even more important for becoming a global power. Providing the security of this energy, as well as its utilisation, is a very challenging process for countries. However, a new challenge has recently been added to these challenges: The Climate Crisis. In the new global system, new Arctic-centred policies must cover three important issues: Climate, security and energy. Russia has the longest border in the Arctic Circle. Russia’s challenge in the Arctic is not only to extract energy but also to protect it and deliver it safely to ports. Therefore, Russia needs to formulate security policies without ignoring geopolitics and climate, which are of vital importance for its national borders. In this study, Russia’s new energy security will be analysed by considering the effects of climate and geopolitics changes on the Arctic region. The focus will be on valuable minerals and energy transportation from the Arctic region. The research question is: How is Russia adapting its energy security policies in the Arctic region in response to the dual challenges of climate change and geopolitical security, focusing on the extraction and transportation of precious minerals and energy resources?
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia and Arctic

366. Ottoman Bureaucrats Educated at The Translation Chamber and Their Effects on The State Administration in Modern Ottoman Diplomacy

Author:: Sacide Nur Akkaya
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: In this study, it is aimed to present together the influence of the Ottoman bureaucrats, who were educated in the translation chamber (the institutions where modern Ottoman diplomacy was built) and promoted to important levels of the state, managing the high-level state mechanisms. In the Ottoman Empire, which was governed by the monarchy, the Sultan’s authority was considered the only valid power for centuries. This situation changed during the spread of the Western-centered modernisation process within the empire. In this process, where diplomatic behaviour altered, high-ranking Ottoman bureaucrats began to be very active in state administration, and their authority rose against the power of the sultan. It is important to consider this process in question, together with the important political issues of the period, in terms of giving a clearer meaning to the construction of modern Ottoman diplomacy. In this context, the role of the translation chamber in the formation of modern Ottoman diplomacy will be discussed first, and the political activities and ideological structure of eight statesmen who were educated in this chamber and played important roles in the high level of the state will be discussed within the framework of the important political issues of the period, according to the records in Ottoman archives.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, History, Bureaucracy, Modernization, Translation, Ottoman Empire, and Administration
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

367. China, The United States And Japan In A Changing International Order: Historical Foundations Challenged By The Rise Of China

Author:: Cem Yılmaz
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: This study analyses bilateral relations among People’s Republic of China (China), the United States (US), and Japan by comparing the impacts of historical foundations on the one hand and a prominent contemporary factor, which is the rise of China. The study aims to compare basic historical data and the resilience of these data in the face of a rising China. The relationships among the three actors demonstrate that the historical legacy continues to hold prominence in Chinese perspectives of Japan, while the rise of the actor is prominent in American perspectives of China. Both historical legacy and a rising China factor are dominant in Japanese perceptions of China. The Japanese foreign policy towards China is characterised by a mutual reinforcement of both dimensions, resulting in an overall enhancement of their strength. The study, in this instance, demonstrated that historical parameters become less relevant when a contemporary parameter has the potential to have a major effect on history. The rise of China, which has resulted in a fundamental shift in the international order, and the decline in the importance of the historical dimension in the relationships between the actors under examination are viewed as two phenomena that reinforce one another.
Topic:: History, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

368. The “latecomers” of Bougainville: The difficult completion of post-conflict disarmament processes

Author:: Theò Bajon
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Post-conflict disarmament processes inherently grapple with definitional challenges regarding definitive endpoints and measures of completion. This paper examines the phenomenon of delayed disarmament through the case study of so-called “latecomers” in Bougainville—ex-combatants who voluntarily surrendered their weapons following the cessation of formal demobilisation, disarmament, and reintegration programming. This study proposes a behavioural model that conceptualises late comer decisionmaking dynamics pertaining to temporary small arms retention. Pivoting upon an iterated security dilemma framework, the model posits that contextual environmental stressors and temporal factors serve as key variables initially sustaining weapons possession in the absence of hostilities. However, this intermediate status carries risks of eventual escalation to renewed violence or protracted and arduous disarmament engagement. The latecomer case reveals the inherent fluidity and uncertainties surrounding delimitations of the disarmament process. Further interrogating ex-combatant dilemmas could strengthen post-conflict policy and practice. Fundamentally, this research demonstrates the enduring temporal ambiguities inherent to disarmament, highlighting the need for pluralistic understandings attentive to issues of indigeneity, humanity, and interpretive meaning central to sustainable peace-building.
Topic:: International Security, Disarmament, Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

369. Small powers as non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: A case study of the Baltic states

Author:: Eduards Gailišs
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The main objective of this paper is to identify how small powers can make a difference by taking up a role at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as non-permanent members. This research takes a closer look at the Baltic states, Lithuania and Estonia, and gives a perspective for Latvia too. This paper examines whether these states use strategies that have made other small powers successful at the Security Council. Most of the materials used were documents from foreign services and the UNSC, and the methods employed were qualitative document analysis and interview. Lithuania was successful at making resolutions and highlighted topics, such as small arms and protection of journalists, whereas Estonia was successful at agenda setting and highlighted cyber security and environment security. Small powers can successfully work at the UNSC by setting the agenda and working on resolutions. However, their time as part of the UNSC is limited and their abilities to solve military conflicts depend on the support of the great powers. The Baltic states used some strategies that other small powers have successfully used, although they lacked influence for mediation and coalition building.
Topic:: United Nations, International Security, UN Security Council, and Small Powers
Political Geography:: Baltic States

370. Gender diversity management in NATO for sustainable security and peace

Author:: Kamila Trochowska-Sviderok, Yvonne Rose Masakowski, Montgomery McFate, and Anne Holohan
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The article focuses on the need for a paradigm shift in diversity management for sustainable peace and security. We discuss the bidirectional influence of security and defence organisations and society; the intersectionality of issues related to social justice, health, race, and ethnicity; sexual abuse and exploitation; and cultural factors that influence the functioning of LGBTQ+ personnel and the gender/technology nexus in the context of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). During the application of the Sustainable Security Paradigm to gender diversity management, we found that ecofeminism and the ideas of post-colonial theory should inform the transformational shift of contemporary security and defence organisational cultures. This approach was used by the multinational NATO Science & Technology Organization Exploratory Team ET-197 Gender, Peace and Sustainable Security (2022-23) and its successor, the NATO HFM-368 Research Task Group (2023-26). Our research efforts were triangulated by an analysis of doctrinal textual, audiovisual and art sources that relate to gender diversity and its management. Given the complexity of future warfare, there is a strategic imperative to develop an inclusive defence strategy that reconfigures the traditional white male-focused military paradigm. It is evident that the root cause of gender inequality cannot be solved solely by doctrine and training solutions—rather a transformational organisational culture shift is pivotal and critical to the future global security. This is the first article that addresses the issues of gender diversity management for sustainable security and peace in an interdisciplinary and holistic manner. Our approach is relevant to any organisation with internal gender and intersectional diversity and systemic discrimination.
Topic:: NATO, International Security, Social Justice, Sustainability, and Gender Minorities
Political Geography:: Global Focus

371. Violation of territorial integrity as a tool for waging long-term hybrid warfare (against the backdrop of power games in the South Caucasus region)

Author:: Khayal Iskandarov, Piotr Gawliczek, and Andrzej Soboń
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper seeks to examine the violation of territorial integrity as a stage of hybrid warfare. Grounded in the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism, this study analyses nations’ foreign policy strategies considering both global and domestic factors. Employing primarily qualitative research, this study concentrates on a case study of the South Caucasus region. Against the backdrop of the war which broke out in the early 2022 between Russia and Ukraine, the preservation of territorial integrity emerges as an imperative aspect of national security policy. Despite the longstanding recognition of territorial integrity as a fundamental tenet of international law over the centuries, this war has galvanised all nations with regard to the violation of territorial integrity. The paper delineates the principles of territorial integrity vis-à-vis the national security of the South Caucasus countries, substantiating the assertion that violation of the territorial integrity of the particular countries in this region serves the interests of external actors, either directly or indirectly, and is employed as a strategic tool in the pursuit of protracted hybrid warfare.
Topic:: National Security, International Security, Hybrid Warfare, Russia-Ukraine War, and Territorial Integrity
Political Geography:: South Caucasus

372. The securitization of foreign disinformation

Author:: Nicole J. Jackson
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper analyses the Canadian government’s foreign and security policy responses to Russian disinformation in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war. It asks whether, how, and why the government has securitised the “crisis of Russian disinformation.” The paper first briefly reviews literature on the Copenhagen’s School’s “securitisation” theory and how it has been used to explain responses to other crises. It then adopts the framework to contextualise the Canadian federal government’s official rhetoric, and then to categorise government policies and actions. The sources consulted include government actors’ reports and stated intentions and policies from 2022 to 2024. Adopting a securitisation framework reveals that Russian disinformation has been rhetorically securitised by government actors as an existential threat to national security and democratic integrity which requires urgent action. Within a context of cascading risks, the government has taken a range of distinct yet reinforcing policies and actions, some more comprehensive than others. The paper argues that together this “pervasive rhetorical securitisation” and “ad hoc practical securitisation” comprise the Canadian government’s ongoing process of partial securitisation. This process is legitimising different methods of governance: security and warfare communications (to address threats to national defence and security), democratic resilience (to address threats to democracy), and, most controversially, blocking and sanctioning (to signal discontent to the Russian regime). The analysis further reveals that each approach has different benefits and limits. The paper concludes that the securitisation process is incomplete compared to the government's rhetoric, with no over-arching organisation or strategy. It outlines implications for future research.
Topic:: International Security, Cybersecurity, Disinformation, Securitization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Canada

373. Aircraft vulnerability to politically motivated Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) in Eastern Europe

Author:: Tegg Westbrook
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Countries in Europe have experienced radio frequency interference from Russian electronic warfare units, affecting navigation systems without discrimination. Interference has been identified as coming from the Russian mainland, Kaliningrad, and in the areas where it is engaged in conflicts abroad, creating serious hazards for aircraft. Previous research has identified the technical vulnerabilities to aviation from radio frequency interference, but it has yet to be contextualised in light of the ongoing geopolitical tensions. Using literature review analysis, the aim of the article is to place the jamming and spoofing threat in the context of ongoing political tensions between Russia and the region and to establish worse-case scenarios based on the former’s motives. Focusing on the threats to aircraft, it finds that the likely motivations are to (1) complement political narratives of Western aggression; (2) to deny service for intimidation, harassment, economic loss, and to portray a dominant Russian cyber influence; and (3) to use spoofing to enable hostage diplomacy via the seizure of people and assets. It argues that reporting mechanisms for aviation risks assumes geographical staticism, which does not correspond adequately to the threat. It also creates arbitrary “predictability” in otherwise unpredictable environments, which could ultimately affect vigilance and due diligence in the areas not considered problematic.
Topic:: International Security, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, and Satellite
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

374. Nuclear power plants in war zones: Lessons learned from the war in Ukraine

Author:: Joanna Przybylak
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of this paper is to examine the lessons learned till mid-2023 from the war in Ukraine to find out how attacking or seizing nuclear power plants (NPPs) can be utilised to advance military and political objectives during an armed conflict. The qualitative research approach has been applied to the study, focusing on an analysis of academic research and relevant acts of international law. In order to examine Russia’s approach to the attacks against the Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia NPPs, numerous reports, official statements by the authorities, press releases, and Internet sources have been analysed. For evaluation of nuclear security and safety standards in Ukraine, the “seven pillars” model proposed by the International Atomic Energy Agency has been adopted. The study indicates that strategically located NPPs can be used as “nuclear shields” for the occupying forces deployed at the plant or nearby. They may also become useful tools of “lawfare” waged with the use of flawed interpretations of international humanitarian law. Finally, nuclear security-related narrations analysed in the paper clearly prove that seized NPPs can be effectively used in information warfare. The research leads to the conclusion that civil NPPs in war zones can be weaponised and exploited by the hostile forces not only for impeding energy supplies (and thus shattering the public morale of the adversary) but also for blackmailing and coercing the decisionmakers of the attacked state and their international allies with a vision of man-made nuclear disaster.
Topic:: Nuclear Power, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Russia-Ukraine War, and Nuclear Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

375. The Three Seas Initiative, its fund, and its support for Ukraine in terms of the theory of liberalism

Author:: Marta Gębska
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This article aims to analyse how the theory of economic and institutional liberalism applies to the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) and its Investment Fund (3SIIF), particularly in the context of Ukraine, which was attacked by Russia in February 2022. The study integrates theoretical perspectives from security studies, political science, and international relations with the practical implementation of the 3SI and 3SIIF. It uses scholarly literature on liberalism along with official 3SI and 3SIIF documentation. By comparing the theoretical principles of liberalism with the operational practices of the 3SI, the article draws conclusions about the alignment of these practices with liberal theory. The findings indicate that the theory of liberalism can be used to explain and describe forms of regional cooperation such as the 3SI, which reflects its relevance across various operational and conceptual dimensions. The acceptance of Ukraine as a participating 3SI partner was one of the signals to Russia that Ukraine is a part of the Western world, where goals are achieved through voluntary integration, trade and investment cooperation, free market, and democratic principles, and not through dependency, violence, and military action. Finally, the paper illustrates the application of liberalism theory to the geopolitical realities of the 3SI and draws attention to its effectiveness in achieving economic and regional security goals. The research may influence future regional policies and strategies, especially in the context of Ukraine’s integration into Western structures.
Topic:: Security, International Security, Liberalism, Russia-Ukraine War, and Three Seas Initiative
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

376. Russian disinformation in Moldova and Poland in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Author:: Marlena Zadorożna and Marin Butuc
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Russian disinformation carried out as part of the ongoing war in Ukraine is becoming a challenge for neighbouring countries that border the conflict region. The aim of the analysis was to identify common features between Russian disinformation in Moldova and Poland, which, as two of the countries that border Ukraine, were on a list of Russia’s main targets for disinformation in 2022. The geopolitical and historical importance of both countries increases their social polarisation. The study was therefore guided by the following research question: What common features can be distinguished between Russian disinformation in Moldova and Poland? The research took the form of an open comparison. According to the approach used, the empirical cases used for comparison were not explicitly limited a priori. In order to carry out the research, however, preliminary assumptions were adopted that ensured temporal, conceptual, and interpretative comparability of the data. Research results proved that Russian disinformation in both countries is based on the following common features: creating internal divisions, propagation of distrust towards the West, stimulating social emotions, use of social media, and popularising pro-Russian narratives. Analysing these areas may be helpful in increasing the ability of states to detect and disclose disinformation. Scientific publications describing Russian disinformation focus on the national perspective, which does not always correspond to the transnational nature of disinformation campaigns. Meanwhile, this article synthesises knowledge about disinformation mechanisms occurring in two countries bordering the conflict region and draws attention to the need for research in this area.
Topic:: Communications, Disinformation, Fake News, Information Warfare, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, and Poland

377. Techno-Realism: Navigating New Challenges in the Contemporary Role of Technology in Politics

Author:: Isti Marta Sukma
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper aims to introduce a new theory, techno-realism, which is derived from political realism, to help comprehend the complex connections between technology and politics. According to techno-realism, technology serves as a means of power, with the innate drive for survival in human nature shaping the formation of identity. The research question at the core of this study revolves around the extent to which technology influences contemporary political science and whether it truly serves as a means of power. Three concepts are introduced: identity establishment, technology as the central source of power, and non-state actors in politics. The primary case study focuses on the complexity of the issue in Xinjiang, examining the application of cyberpolitics in the region. The second case study explores technology’s role in Indonesia’s political power struggle, as evidenced by its 2024 elections and the abuse of information and electronic transaction law effectiveness to control freedom of speech. Additionally, this paper introduces a case study on the Indo-Pacific regional power dynamics in confronting “digital authoritarianism”. This paper underscores the imperative for a new theoretical framework, adapted from political realism, which despite being subject to considerable criticism, has the potential for further development, placing technology at the core of analysis. Recognising the central roles of technology, identity formation, and non-state actors, techno-realism offers valuable insights for navigating complex political landscapes and informing strategic responses to emerging challenges. However, further research is needed to understand completely its applicability and limitations across different contexts, as demonstrated by the case studies presented in this paper.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Elections, Realism, and Techno-realism
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, Asia, Global Focus, and Xinjiang

378. China’s security relations with Africa in the 21st century

Author:: Monika Magdalena Krukowska
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The paper examines China’s increasing security interests in Africa. It seeks to understand the nature and scope of Chinese engagement in peace and security issues on the continent based on its engagement in international and domestic (African) politics. Through literature analysis and logical reasoning, the author intends to define the implications of China’s new role as a security provider. The paper is based on desk research using primary and secondary data and statistical and comparative analysis of official documents, academic research, and media sources. The methods include literature analysis, logical reasoning, statistical research, comparative analysis, and the inductive method to build general theorems. The paper analyses aspects of China’s security engagement on the African continent: its participation in the United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, small arms exports, and Beijing’s sharing of technology with African partners. China’s engagement in Africa’s security helps to advance its vital economic and political interests, with limited impact on African security. Key lessons for African partners are offered. The last decades have seen an extraordinary increase in China’s economic and political ties with Africa. Security cooperation followed massive Chinese investments and thousands of Chinese nationals working on the continent. China’s security engagement in Africa protects Beijing’s interests regarding access to resources, markets, political influence, and social credibility. It has little to do with a benevolent will to help Africa deal with instability or economic underdevelopment. African partners must make necessary efforts to avoid further dependence on China.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Security, Peacekeeping, Cybersecurity, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

379. Democracy and the ‘citizen-soldier’ military: The case of Kosovo and Israel

Author:: Ronen Itsik
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The intention of Kosovo’s government to establish a ‘citizen-soldier’ military creates an opportunity to do the ‘right thing from the beginning’—the current comparative study elaborates on the steps that have to be taken in order to establish a military in a young and small democratic state, with a strong normative base, that will provide confidence in the defence system alongside constructive socialisation. The structure of constitutional analysis serves as a base for in-depth discussion concerning the military service model in democratic states. The analysis is followed by an elaboration on the ‘citizen-soldier’ military model in the context of cultural aspects and the connection to the constitutional base, combined with an analysis of Israel’s and Kosovo’s social–cultural features, security challenges, and geo-strategic situations, similarities and opportunities regarding implementation of a military model. The study reveals that in democratic states, the ‘citizen-soldier’ model has to be anchored in the culture and in the constitution in order to prevent social conflicts concerning rights and duties, establishing a constructive social platform that empowers national resilience alongside defensive abilities. Kosovo’s success in implementing a ‘citizen-soldier’ model is built on the adoption of positive ways of social integration using Israel’s experience while minimising its weaknesses: the existence of constitutional definitions that will balance civilians’ rights and duties in the context of military duty, harnessing the education system as a socialisation agent, and establishment of a reserve military force that will be anchored in national duty, in the security view and the social view.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Democracy, and Military
Political Geography:: Israel and Kosovo

380. Estimating the vulnerability of industrial network infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:: Mateusz Gzegorz Twardawa, Marek Smolik, Franciszek Rakowski, Jakub Kwiatkowski, and Norbert Meyer
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Industrial infrastructure has suffered an unprecedented number of attacks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This situation can be attributed to many geopolitical factors, including hybrid military conflicts and criminal activity. Industrial networks belonging to the countries that were once under Soviet influence suffer from an elevated risk of cyberattacks. The goal of this work is to propose an easy way to estimate the vulnerabilities of industrial networks to cyber threats on a national level. Since analysis of the industrial vulnerability landscape is difficult, this study proposes an assessment based on the popularity of vulnerable technologies—VPc. This metric is composed of search volume data on keywords related to industrial network technologies and reported security vulnerabilities associated with these words. Data on 116 keywords was analysed and a country-specific VPc index was calculated for twenty states in CEE. The analysis of the popularity of industrial technologies and vendors in CEE reveals interesting information about the industrial security and vulnerability landscape. The results show that some countries (e.g. Estonia) have more resilient industrial infrastructure than others (e.g. Belarus). The results presented in this study are not in conflict with other data and estimation attempts, including the National Cyber Security Index (NCSI). As new vulnerabilities are noted every day, the industrial security landscape changes rapidly. Therefore, a new easy-to-use metric (VPc) can be successfully used for general estimations. This work shows that the VPc score agrees with other estimates and analyses, but as with any other general estimation tool, it must be used with caution.
Topic:: International Security, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Industry, Vulnerability, and Network Security
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

381. Anti-terrorist cooperation as part of Poland’s geopolitical shift. “Operation Bridge” and the rise of a strategic partnership with the United States

Author:: Tomasz Piotr Kozłowski
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper discusses Poland’s involvement in “Operation Bridge,” which aimed to transport Jewish citizens from the Soviet Union to Israel between 1989 and 1992. The study is based on recently declassified documents from the former intelligence and counterintelligence services, the Foreign Ministry, and the Prime Minister’s Office, supplemented by accounts of policymakers, secret service officers, and militia involved in protecting Soviet Jews during transit operations. The author argues that this operation was not just a humanitarian effort but also had significant geopolitical implications. The newly elected non-communist government under Tadeusz Mazowiecki saw this as a critical move to establish stronger ties with the United States and Israel. The author also highlights how the cooperation between Poland and the United States in intelligence sharing, counterterrorism, and security operations paved the way for Poland’s strategic partnership with the United States and its eventual entry into NATO. The paper contributes significantly to our understanding of the role played by Poland in the post-Cold War era and sheds new light on the development of US–Polish relations.
Topic:: Security, Cold War, Terrorism, Geopolitics, and Counterintelligence
Political Geography:: Europe, Israel, Poland, and United States of America

382. Role of the private sector within Latvia’s strategic defence documents: Dimensions of psychological resilience and strategic communication

Author:: Lita Juberte Krūmiņa
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The comprehensive defence framework introduced in 2019 in Latvia has the potential to accelerate the implementation of national defence priorities, thus strengthening Latvia as one of NATO’s external border states. In a time of geopolitical turbulence and increasing hybrid threats, a whole-of-society approach is required and work in ever-new directions. As dimensions of psychological resilience and strategic communication are becoming an important part of the defence studies debate, the study focuses on the role of the private sector within Latvia’s strategic defence documents and aims to investigate where these dimensions are situated and how they have evolved in the strategic landscape. To study the role and evolution of the private sector within Latvia’s strategic defence documents, quantitative content analysis and qualitative text analysis were used for in-depth analysis of the documents. The study finds that the role of the private sector in the strategic defence documents has generally increased over the years and there has not been a significant change regarding private sector involvement in dimensions of psychological resilience and strategic communication. The long-term pattern indicates that dimensions of psychological resilience and strategic communication appear rare in strategic documents, suggesting that the private sector is not seen as a significant actor in achieving defence goals. Meanwhile, in more practical dimensions,an upward trend towards strengthening ties and sharing responsibilities is identified. The study therefore opens up a discussion regarding the need for a more institutionalised framework for psychological and strategic communication dimensions in order to achieve the strategic goals of comprehensive defence.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Private Sector, Resilience, and Strategic Communication
Political Geography:: Europe and Latvia

383. The role of military morale as an essential dimension of combat power

Author:: Mioara Șerban
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper focuses on the principles and values that guide human behaviour as well as judgements about what is considered ethical. The objectives of this analysis are threefold: (1) to explore the role of morale as an essential dimension of combat power, (2) to identify perceptions and representations related to the importance of military morale in managing stress during wartime or on a field mission, and (3) to identify possible ways to improve the resilience of military personnel deployed on the battlefield within the organisational culture. This study adopts a mixed-methods approach, including qualitative methodologies to examine the role and impact of psychological training and self-confidence in military settings along with quantitative methodologies that include specific questions regarding demographics and military experiences. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with thirty-two military personnel with direct experience in missions, conflict zones, or theatres of operations. Soldiers’ perceptions, formed by their states of necessity and subjective character, contribute to satisfaction, shaping the scope of motivation, and confirming that soldiers’ morale directly influences their actions on the battlefield. Accomplishing a mission requires not only the precise definition of objectives and the provision of the necessary tools but also an appeal to factors that stimulate, raise awareness, and activate personnel. The findings reveal measures that can be taken to manage stress in combat, including subjective ones, deriving from the military’s confidence and conviction in the legitimacy of the cause and the justice of the war, group integration, personal beliefs and hopes as well as objective ones, such as external mass influences, the media or the states involved, which affect the security of the military. The results of the study emphasise the importance of the initial training of the military at individual and group levels, or under leadership of superiors, together with the solidarity of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and European Union member states in supporting the families of the military and improving their situation from various perspectives: economic, material, orale, civil protection, and child protection.
Topic:: Security, Motivation, Morale, Combat Power, and Military Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

384. Leveraging competitive intelligence in offensive cyber counterintelligence: An operational approach for the shipping industry

Author:: Anastasios-Nikolaos Kanellopoulos
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: In the contemporary landscape of rapid digitalization, the shipping industry is increasingly confronted with unparalleled cybersecurity threats, necessitating a transition towards proactive strategies to address these evolving risks. Traditional methodologies have proven inadequate, thereby necessitating the integration of Competitive Intelligence (CI) within Offensive Cyber Counterintelligence (OCCI) frameworks. This paper investigates the interdependent relationship between CI and OCCI, underscoring their combined potential to safeguard organizational interests and enhance cybersecurity resilience. The primary objectives of this study are to elucidate the foundational principles and significance of CI within business contexts, to explore the theoretical underpinnings of OCCI, and to propose a structured framework for the integration of CI into OCCI operations specifically tailored to the shipping sector. Theoretical constructs highlight the critical importance of proactive measures in mitigating cyber threats and sustaining a competitive advantage in the digital era. Through a comprehensive analysis of the literature, this interdisciplinary approach provides practitioners with the opportunity to evaluate and implement the proposed framework. The insights garnered from this study hold significant implications for both academic research and industry practice, promoting ongoing collaboration in the development of robust frameworks for integrating CI within OCCI operations.
Topic:: Intelligence, International Security, Cybersecurity, Resilience, Shipping, Strategic Management, and Counterintelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

385. Security scenarios: 3D Printed Firearms

Author:: Samu Rautio and Mika Broms
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of this study was to determine possible future scenarios if 3D printed firearms were to be manufactured in society. These scenarios provide a closer examination of the factors influencing the use of this relatively new method of firearms production. We reviewed the factors in 3D printed firearms that are relevant to various security authorities. Scenario analysis enables the examination of problem-solving for this multi-dimensional, multi-layered and multi-scale phenomenon. The topic was approached from a systemic perspective based on complexity thinking. The scenario-creation method employed five forecasting techniques applicable to the Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation (Carleton, 2013). A context map created the basis for factor analysis, generational arcs, white spots and expert panel. The scenarios were developed into a structural format, allowing for the description of coherent entities. Upon analysing the scenarios, it was found that the ease of manufacturing 3D printed firearms could lead to a rapid increase in their numbers, potentially resulting in decreased internal and external security. The networking of manufacturers could also enable the production of weapons for individuals who previously did not have access to firearms. On the other hand, 3D printed firearms could open up new legal uses and possibilities. The networking of manufacturers could also enable the production of weapons for individuals who previously did not have access to firearms. On the other hand, 3D-printed firearms could open up new legal uses and possibilities.
Topic:: Security, Weapons, Forecast, Manufacturing, and 3D Printing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

386. The Copenhagen School’s widening security theory in relation to cybersecurity. Applicability and Implications

Author:: Mihai Olteanu
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper critically examines the relationship between cybersecurity and Copenhagen School’s widening security theory, with the aim of assessing the possibility of applying this theoretical framework to the cyber realm. As cybersecurity is a relatively recent addition to the security discourse, this research explores whether the Copenhagen School’s traditional framework, which was primarily focused on securitisation processes in the five main sectors (military, political, economic, environmental, and societal), adequately encompasses the unique aspects and dynamics of cyber domain. The research question is: Why the cybersecurity field can’t become a separate constructivist sector? The study begins with a detailed overview of both cybersecurity landscape and Copenhagen School’s fundamental principles to provide the context for a comparative analysis of the Copenhagen theory and contemporary cybersecurity literature. In doing so, the research delves into the features of cybersecurity, with a focus on the evolving nature of cyber threats and vulnerabilities. By performing a qualitative analysis of the existing literature, the paper assesses the limitations of integrating these two concepts, ultimately concluding that cybersecurity lacks the distinct characteristics required to be considered a separate sector under the Copenhagen School’s framework. The findings contribute to the ongoing discussions regarding the adaptation of traditional security theories to address contemporary security challenges in the digital age.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Copenhagen School
Political Geography:: Global Focus

387. SCADvanceXP—an intelligent Polish system for threat detection and monitoring of industrial networks

Author:: Mateusz Gzegorz Twardawa, Marek Smolik, Franciszek Rakowski, Jakub Kwiatkowski, and Norbert Meyer
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: SCADvanceXP is an industrial network intrusion detection system that scans and monitors data exchange between engineering stations, field divides, controllers, supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), and other elements of the operational technology network in detail. SCADvanceXP has the potential to detect advanced attacks on industrial infrastructures with the use of rulebased, signature-based, and behavioural detection methods, which are supported by sophisticated machine and deep learning models. As a system developed in Poland, it addresses the needs of industry in that region of Europe. The goal of this work was to assess SCADvanceXP’s potential to detect common industrial threats. In order to check SCADvanceXP’s potential, an effort was undertaken to evaluate its functionality on major industrial threats. For that purpose, twelve malware strains interfering with industrial systems were described. Later, the SCADvanceXP functionality was overlapped on malware behavioural and detection markers, pointing out exact mechanisms in SCADvanceXP that would detect analysed threats. The results show that SCADvanceXP is able to detect a wide range of attacks on industrial networks. SCADvanceXP’s rich functionality is able to provide a high standard of security. However, if a threat is affecting systems not directly connected with industrial networks, SCADvanceXP will not be able to detect it. SCADvanceXP only monitors industrial systems; hence, corporate networks must be protected by a different solution to provide the required level of security. Nonetheless, SCADvanceXP is dedicated to operating within industrial networks and does not have access to regular IT networks. It can be concluded that SCADvanceXP is a specialist tool providing desired security for industrial networks.
Topic:: International Security, Cybersecurity, Malware, and Industrial Networks
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

388. Remote work in the Finnish Defence Forces: Employees’ experiences of changes in organisational culture

Author:: Tiina Kähkönen
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper investigated what changes took place in the organisational culture of the Finnish Defence Forces during the COVID-19 pandemic, and also afterwards when remote work has remained permanently available to staff. A total of 468 employees of the Finnish Defence Forces participated in the study by reporting their experiences of changes in organisational culture. In the analysis of qualitative data, the Gioia methodology, which classifies the data into categories and themes, was used. Remote work creates challenges for leadership, and more equality, changed management competence, and remote work management skills were expected from management. However, it would seem that the organisational culture in the Finnish Defence Forces has developed in such a way that trust within the organisation is even stronger than before. Remote work has developed the personnel’s skills in managing digital tools as well as the employer image of the Finnish Defence Forces in the eyes of their personnel. This is the first study to map employees’ experiences of remote work from the perspective of changes in organisational culture in the Finnish Defence Forces. The research provides novel information that can be utilised in developing the operations and management of organisations. The Finnish Defence Forces have taken significant steps towards a modern work community. There are still some challenges to be solved in terms of how to improve leadership of remote work. A particularly important resource in resilience to change is the trust that is manifested in the organisational culture of the Finnish Defence Forces.
Topic:: Defense Policy, COVID-19, Remote Work, and Organizational Culture
Political Geography:: Europe and Finland

389. Bretton Woods Institutions: 80 Years and Counting

Author:: Roman Marshavin
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: ON JULY 22, 2024, the world marked the 80th anniversary of the conclusion of the Bretton Woods Conference, which led to the establishment of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. This milestone provides an opportune moment to assess the progress achieved and reflect on future challenges. In 1944, when these institutions were created, the world was vastly different. World War II was still ongoing, but the defeat of Nazism was within reach. Beginning in 1943, consultations were held in Moscow and Washington among the Allies of the anti-Hitler coalition – primarily the US, the UK, and the USSR – regarding the future world order, including its economic dimensions. The Soviet delegation, led by Deputy People’s Commissar for Foreign Trade Mikhail Stepanov, played an active role in these discussions, including the establishment of the UN and financial institutions. It is fair to say that without the USSR’s participation, the creation of the first-ever truly global financial institutions would have been impossible. Archival materials confirm the high level of preparation by Soviet experts and their diplomatic skills, which enabled them to defend several key positions for the country and reflect them in the final documents.
Topic:: World Bank, Institutions, IMF, BRICS, and Bretton Woods
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Soviet Union, United States of America, and Global South

390. Economic Diplomacy in the Modern Geopolitical Context

Author:: Dmitry Birichevsky
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: ON SEPTEMBER 7, 1944, an economic department was formed at the People’s Commissariat for Foreign Affairs of the USSR, marking the beginning of modern Russian economic diplomacy. Over the course of its existence, the current Department of Economic Cooperation (DEC) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has undergone numerous transformations, gradually expanding its functions as the foreign economic agenda has expanded and become more complex. The DEC is celebrating its 80th anniversary amid radical geopolitical changes that will shape the configuration of the future world order. This is a period of significant challenges and great responsibility, as well as remarkable opportunities. The current historical phase is marked by significant turbulence in the international relations system, as the collective West’s claims to civilizational exceptionalism have proven untenable and Western regulatory mechanisms have failed to ensure sustainable development of the global economy. The Western powers are attempting to maintain their dominance by systematically weakening potential rivals and securing a generally subordinate position for countries of the World Majority.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Integration, Economic Diplomacy, Multipolarity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

391. Ads and Editorials: How Pretreatment Reduces the Persuasiveness of Interest Group Advertisements

Author:: Matthew Lesenyie
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Advertising studies commonly examine the effects of one-sided treatments. However, political communication campaigns are competitive environments where voters are likely to hear more than one perspective. Because of this dynamic, the persuasive effects of single-sided ads may be less likely to hold in a competitive environment. When respondents are exposed to arguments from both sides of a ballot proposition issue, can the disclosure of a credible group help an advertisement overcome prior opinions? I address this question using a randomized experiment that includes ballot proposition campaign ads. In the experiments, I manipulate the pretreatment environment by exposing some respondents to a newspaper editorial in order to provide them with prior opinions that might cause them to resist subsequent advertisements. I also vary the presence or absence of campaign finance disclosure within the advertisements. In all cases, the presence of a credible editorial is associated with a change in support for the initiative. However, the use of a credible campaign finance disclosure has a far less consistent effect. While campaign finance disclosures from credible groups can help counteract prior beliefs that citizens may hold, I find that the magnitude of these changes is somewhat small.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Campaign Finance, Advertising, and Interest Groups
Political Geography:: Global Focus

392. When Life Gives You Lemons: How EU Citrus Standards Can Limit Trade

Author:: Trinity Johnson
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: In the early 2000s, the European Union (EU) created multiple standards on agricultural imports. This paper focuses on the effect of stricter maximum residue limits (MRLs) for pesticides on citrus fruit exports to the EU after the limits went into effect in 2005. Using a regression model on overall citrus fruit exports and an interaction term for country-level income, the data shows that the EU’s stricter MRLs hurt exports from high-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income countries. Exports from low-income countries declined the most after 2005, while only upper-middle-income countries saw an increase in exports. For product-specific models, low-income countries saw a reduction in exports to the EU for all citrus fruits, while results varied by fruit for other income classifications. The results of these models demonstrate that the EU’s tightened pesticide regulation hurt low-income countries the most. While the regulation is meant to maintain a standard of food quality in the EU, its impact on low-income countries raises important questions about the unintended effects of import regulations. The EU could maintain its quality of food while alleviating the burden on low-income countries by relaxing its MRL standards or by providing more assistance to developing nations to meet its standards.
Topic:: Agriculture, European Union, Regulation, and Imports
Political Geography:: Europe

393. The Advisory Function of the International Court of Justice: Are States Resorting to Advisory Proceedings as a “Soft” Litigation Strategy?

Author:: Myrto Stavridi
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: In the last decades, there has been an increase in advisory opinions of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that relate to vital political interests directly affecting the sovereignty of states. Even though advisory opinions are not binding and do not require the consent of the states involved, advisory proceedings have been increasingly and strategically used by states and international actors as contentious proceedings in disguise. Exploring the history of the advisory function of the ICJ and its predecessor, this article argues that advisory proceedings constitute a “soft” litigation strategy and a particularly useful tool for small states or non-state entities, as it has the potential to counterbalance the inherent power disparities in the process of international bargaining by adding the authoritative voice of the ICJ to the debate. This paper connects this development to a modern tendency of states to judicialize international affairs.
Topic:: International Law, Sovereignty, International Affairs, International Court of Justice (ICJ), and Advisory Opinions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

394. Seeking Safer Shells: An Analysis of Interpretations, Justifications, and Rationales Behind Decisions on North Korean Defectors’ Right to Asylum

Author:: Megumi Faith Mallari and Saleh Naas
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Despite their known and indisputable need for protection, North Koreans often have their applications for asylum rejected. This paper outlines the differing interpretations of North Koreans’ right to asylum and investigates the rationales and justifications behind them through the case studies of the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and China (PRC). The paper argues that the rationale of the European countries analyzed is based on their generally restrictive view on asylum, independent from their political positioning on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Contrastingly, the rationales of the United States and the PRC are grounded in interests directly related to the Korean peninsula and Cold War narratives.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Asylum, and Refugee Policy
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, France, Germany, Netherlands, and United States of America

395. Revising Organ Procurement Organization Guidelines to Obtaining Family Consent for Deceased Donation: An Anthropologically Informed Policy Proposal

Author:: Gillian Tisdale
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Organ transplantation has become a widespread medical practice with public policy designed to increase rates of deceased donation. When individuals have not registered as organ donors, next-of-kin are called on to make donation decisions—requiring families to grapple with the often-confusing concept of ‘brain death’ and parse their understanding of what the deceased would have wanted. Current public policy is explicitly designed to promote high donation rates without clear regard to the experiences of donor-families; at best, these policies prime donation conversations to involve unethical practices, while at worst, the disregard of kin’s experiences may also diminish deceased donation rates. Anthropological literature has documented the often aggressive tactics used by transplant organizations that demonstrate a disregard for the emotional experiences of kin. In 2023, Congress passed the Securing the U.S. Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Act, prompting the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to reevaluate organ donation policies and solicit requests for proposal for a new federal contractor to take over the network responsible for overseeing all organ sharing. This article leverages the relevant anthropological literature to provide guiding principles and proposed language amending the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Interpretive Guidance that HHS could implement as part of its modernization initiative. These principles aim to improve experiences for kin without lowering donation rates. The article recommends that HHS and its contractors collect metrics to measure the quality of Organ Procurement Organization (OPO) interactions, counterbalancing current benchmarks focused on procurement rates. It also recommends improved protocols to empathically and systematically support kin’s understanding of brain death.
Topic:: Legislation, Public Policy, Procurement, and Organ Transplants
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

396. Migrant Death and Disappearability at Sea: Mediterranean Necropolitics as a European Strategy of Migration Deterrence

Author:: Bertille Motte
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: The Mediterranean Sea has become the deadliest passage in the world over the past decade, as thousands of migrants lose their lives at sea each year. It has become a key actant of European border violence perpetrated against migrants, as European national and supranational migration institutions instrumentalize the Mediterranean’s natural properties through necropolitical strategies of deterrence. The sea must be understood as a wet ontology and a fluid hybrid border. It is shaped by dynamic and complex interactions between human actors and more-than-human elements through which European violence is passed onto non-European migrants’ bodies. It conceals migrants’ deaths and disappearances, as they become ‘inevitable accidents’ caused by natural and untamable elements. The Mediterranean Sea therefore invisibilizes European structural violence occurring at the border zone and acts as an archive and witness to this violence.
Topic:: Migration, Border Control, Refugees, Violence, Deterrence, Asylum, Necropolitics, and Refugee Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

397. Is the Government Ready to Take the Lead? Transition of Migration Management in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:: Rio Otsuka
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is approaching a critical tipping point as it assumes primary responsibility over migration management from the International Organization for Migration. However, few studies have examined whether the government has acquired the ability to take over this responsibility. Such an examination is crucial given the country’s turmoil since 2018, with increased migration inflows, casting doubt over the government's capabilities. Thus, this study explores the current state of migration management in BiH, both to determine whether the government has developed effective migration management capabilities as well as to highlight current migration challenges faced by BiH. Fieldwork at the Temporary Reception Center Usivak in 2023; interviews with 6 non-governmental organization (NGO) officers and 10 migrants in BiH; and analysis of literature and data provided by scholars, governments, international organizations, and NGOs suggest that authorities in BiH, primarily the Ministry of Security, have generally developed effective management capabilities and are ready to assume managing responsibility. Nevertheless, obstacles with providing living conditions in reception centers that meet international standards and with the implementation of coordinated responses among different institutions remain. As the transition proceeds, the Bosnian government should recognize these challenges and implement policies to address them through continued coordination with international organizations and NGOs.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Management, Migration Policy, and International Organization for Migration (IOM)
Political Geography:: Balkans and Bosnia and Herzegovina

398. Guam in Washington, 1972-Present: The Overlooked Strategic Implications of Congressional Polarization

Author:: Mirabai Venkatesh
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Contrary to the long-held logic that giving Guam a stronger, more autonomous voice will undermine U.S. strategic interests, failing to provide Guam with a stable pathway of interest advancement beyond Congress hinders its development and with it the federal government’s ability to achieve soft-power advantages and basic military readiness in the Indo-Pacific theater. Since the United States assumed responsibility for administering the territory of Guam in 1898, it has treated the prospect of Guam’s status improvement as detrimental to U.S. strategic interests. This has informed its chosen method of territorial administration, which places U.S. territories under the authority of the Department of the Interior. Each territory is then given only one formal representative in Congress, specifically the U.S. House of Representatives, but without full-voting rights. This paper will explore how Guam has managed to advance its interests in Washington since 1972, highlighting how congressional representation has become Guam’s most successful pathway of interest advancement with the federal government to date. However, the agency and success of Guam’s congressional delegates must be framed within a broader discussion of the fragility of the U.S. approach to territorial administration, which has relegated Guam to a pathway of interest advancement incredibly vulnerable to political sea change. Ultimately, this paper will illustrate how Guam’s main pathway of interest advancement in Washington is quickly narrowing at the expense of U.S. strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, History, Soft Power, Autonomy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and Guam

399. Friends in Need: Russian Strategic Communications in Africa Before and After the Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: Christopher Babcock
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Africa is becoming an important strategic hub for the Russian state as Putin’s regime faces rising ostracization elsewhere. In this paper, I analyze Russian influence in Africa by examining over 1,700 pieces of online content created or re-posted by 4 Russian embassies in Ghana, Ethiopia, the Republic of the Congo, and Tanzania between January 15 and December 31, 2022. I demonstrate that, despite new developments in Russian strategic communications, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has mostly fed pre-existing narratives rather than drastically shifting the focus or direction of state rhetoric. All four of the embassies used in the analysis promoted narratives that depicted Russia as a revisionist power going up against a “neocolonial” West, portrayed Ukraine as a neo-Nazi puppet of the West, and attempted to contrast this with Russia’s purportedly friendly relations with Africa. The scale and intensity of these narratives exploded in the leadup to and in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine—to the extent that some embassies began to focus almost exclusively on Ukraine in their communications. Meanwhile, many African nations were willing to pragmatically engage with Russia as an alternative (or complementary) ally to the West. Using both quantitative and qualitative analysis, I show that the war in Ukraine has revealed the fault lines of Russian and African thinking, loyalty, and strategy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Engagement, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Communication
Political Geography:: Russia and Africa

400. A Land of Violence, A Land of Conquest: Memory, Truth, Historical Continuity, and Imperialism in Rwanda

Author:: Paolo Bellone
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: How is the imperialism of a small African country connected with questions about its own identity and troubled past? In this paper, I try to analyze through the lenses of historical continuity how the ghosts of a dramatic past have crafted Rwanda’s foreign policy. My analysis goes deeper into the pre-colonial era, observing patterns of similarities throughout Rwandan history, starting from the kingdoms of Rwanda in the 18th century until Paul Kagame’s presidency (2000–present). Moreover, instead of seeing a historical break between the pre- and post-1994 genocide governments, I have found historical parallels with the Rwandan independent governments, especially between those of Juvénal Habyarimana (1973–1994) and Paul Kagame. Those similarities swing around the necessity of controlling ethnic dissent, determining a common truth, centralizing power, and establishing the cult of the leader. Nonetheless, the dramatic consequences of the genocide and the international legitimation that has brought on Kagame’s party Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) have had, as a result, an imperialistic project based on the necessity of defending “national security.” Rwanda’s delicate balance between managing internal dissent, the homogenization of the society through shared collective memory, and the imperialistic project is at the center of this work.
Topic:: Genocide, Imperialism, History, and Memory
Political Geography:: Africa and Rwanda

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