Content Type: Journal Article - CIAO Search Results

401. Eurocentrism in Samuel P. Huntington’s Concept of the Clash of Civilisations

Author:: Mateusz Kuflinski
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article is dedicated to an issue of Eurocentrism in American political scientist Samuel P. Huntington’s concept of the clash of civilisations. The arguments presented indicate that Huntington’s concept is pure Eurocentric. I start by mentioning a few of Huntington’s critics (Noam Chomsky, Samir Amin, Arjun Appadurai, and John M. Hobson). The next step includes analysing in detail the “Eurocentrism anatomy” and presenting Eurocentrism as a phenomenon based on two axes, which I call “materialistic” and “epistemological”. In other words, Eurocentrism is a kind of spectrum. Thanks to that, I compare Huntington’s concept with facts from literature embedded in both axes. Apart from other arguments, Eurocentric factors in the clash of civilisations are 1) civilisations in the past, 2) origin of the West, 3) demographic argument, and 4) the downfall of the West. I argue that the clash of civilisations is based on false, Eurocentric assumptions and prejudices.
Topic:: Imperialism, Neoconservatism, and Eurocentrism
Political Geography:: Europe

402. The Role of Think Tanks in Actions for Defence Diplomacy. An Example of Poland

Author:: Sabina Olszyk
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: With the end of the 20th century, there was a change in the nature and methods of using military force in international politics. It led to the need to develop new cooperation methods between states and reorient military diplomacy into defence diplomacy. In the new reality, the group of entities influencing diplomatic activities has been expanded to include non-governmental entities, including think tanks. It raised questions about the role of expert centres in activities for defence diplomacy under Polish conditions, including shaping the international situation and shaping the state's defence policy. The following considerations are an attempt to answer this question. The analysis was based on the data obtained from a survey and information from the websites of fifteen Polish centres of expertise operating in international relations, political science, and security and defence.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Think Tanks, NGOs, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

403. How Has the Coronavirus Affected Polish Criminal Law?

Author:: Weronika Stawinska
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This paper aims to indicate the changes in Polish criminal law introduced in the COVID-19 acts. The text identifies the new regulations of most importance to society. For this reason, the initial focus is on the issue of suspension of procedural time limits and some substantive law time limits from the Criminal Code. It must be stated that, from the perspective of the legal certainty principle, precisely these provisions are of the most significant importance for the defendant. Next, the changes in the Electronic tagging concerning the possibility of interrupting the execution of an imprisonment sentence and serving an imprisonment sentence were discussed. From a criminal policy point of view, higher penalties for the offences of exposure to infection and stalking should also have been mentioned. A new offence of particularly aggravated theft has appeared in the Penal Code and a new offence of obstructing a Police or Border Guard officer in performing official duties. For a more effective fight, it is also vital to provide for the possibility of imposing a new preventive measure and confiscating objects important to public health. The indicated legal developments are presented in the context of human rights protection and in light of recent literature and judicial decisions.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Law, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

404. Exploratory Study upon Military Leadership in the 21st Century. What Are Skills and Knowledge Required for Leadership Success?

Author:: Fabian Boettcher
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Within the context of increasingly digital work, it appeared interesting to look at how military leaders and their leadership style will have to adapt to remain “up-to-speed” with current challenges. It is qualitative research based on interviews with military and civilian experts. Four interviews have been conducted, but there would be the potential to interview many more experts and look deeper into the matter. Within the context of digitalised military leadership, the importance of communication and mutual trust has been underscored by the experts. They agreed that leaders nowadays must embrace digital developments and include them in their leadership styles. The civilian world can learn from the military when it comes to leadership approaches, which is happening at the time of publication of this article with practical examples (senior military leaders assigned to lead the pandemic task force in some countries). Overall, the outcome of the research is that a relevant and resilient military leadership style in the 21st century resembles the elements of the situational leadership style developed by Hersey-Blanchard.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Leadership, Civil-Military Relations, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

405. "I Am Not Going”: Determinants of Social Activity before Poland’s Ghost Election

Author:: Kamila Rezmer-Płotka
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article analyses political opposition toward the date of presidential elections and conducting them in the correspondence form on May 10, 2020, in Poland. The study is embedded in the theories of quasi-militant democracy and the emergence of social movements. The method used in the study is the qualitative analysis of media messages of the main news websites in Poland. Mainly in terms of the activity and arguments of citizens against the elections in the form of correspondence. The presidential elections revealed the imperious relationship between the government and citizens in Poland’s becoming quasimilitant democracy. The emphasis was on the elements regarding the organisation of elections on May 10 that could impact a social movement’s emergence. The most significant role in stopping the May 10 elections was played by institutional opposition in the form of local self-governments’ civil disobedience and the Senate’s action, which efficiently blocked the party’s initiative. The article accounts for how election matters determined the social mobilisation and activity of the new social movement. This paper’s main finding is that institutional opposition may prevail over the social one in the pandemic.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Democracy, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

406. The Russian Federation Dominance in the International Security Environment

Author:: Miroslaw Banasik
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This article presents the research results, which set out to explain the mechanisms leading to the achievement of dominance by the Russian Federation in the international security environment. In the research process, the systemic approach was applied. Analysis and criticism of the literature, non-participatory observation and case study elements were used to solve the research problems. As a result, it was determined that the theoretical basis for the Russian Federation's achievement of international dominance is the concept of new generation war. The model of the strategic influence of the Russian Federation is directed at the shaping of the security environment and includes the synchronisation of kinetic and non-kinetic measures, indirect and direct effects, the blurring of the boundaries between war and peace and the application of pressure and aggression. The Russian Federation achieves strategic dominance through asymmetry, chaos, reflexive control, and strategic deterrence. Armed forces provide a key role in asserting dominance, focused on conducting offensive activities and inflicting losses with conventional and nuclear weapons.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Influence, and Foreign Assistance
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

407. Social Credit System in the People’s Republic of China. Theoretical Assumption and Implementation

Author:: Maciej Walkowski
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: In the European Union, the United States and other countries of the so-called Western world, the perception of the functionalities of AI, and other instruments of Industrial Revolution 4.0 significantly differs from its perception by the PRC’s authorities, which – for a few years – have been implementing solutions aimed at comprehensive scrutiny and social supervision rather than facilitating life and work. This idea has been reflected in the so-called Social Credit System since at least 2014 and has given rise to plenty of controversies and disputes, unfortunately based on emotions and imprecise interpretation of the characteristics, aims, and implementation of the project rather than knowledge. While the new, digital model of social management in China is extensively discussed in the literature, it is rarely addressed in Polish studies, which results in the scarcity of publications on this subject. This paper attempts to fill this gap by presenting the essence of the system and the progress of its implementation.
Topic:: Economics, Hegemony, Artificial Intelligence, and Credit
Political Geography:: China and Asia

408. Artificial Intelligence v. Personal Data

Author:: Katarzyna Chalubinska-Jentkiewicz and Monika Nowikowska
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The world is constantly changing under the influence of new technologies. Artificial intelligence systems are currently used in many areas of human activity. Such systems are increasingly assigned the tasks of collecting and analysing personal data. The areas successfully using AI include transport, medicine, trade, marketing, and others. The number of these areas increases proportionally with the advancement of technology. We can process vast amounts of data and analyse it using IA. It is, of course, big data that sits at the heart of AI. As computing systems generally have grown in power and capacity, data consumption has grown exponentially.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Data
Political Geography:: Global Focus

409. What Next for Climate and Security at the UN Security Council: Ireland's View

Author:: Simon Coveney
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Before Ireland assumed its seat as an elected member of the United Nations Security Council in January last year, I, together with colleagues and advisors, reflected on what our priorities would be. As a Minister with two portfolios, for Foreign Affairs and for Defence, it was clear that global security in this century cannot be contemplated without a climate lens.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Global Focus, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Europe and Ireland

410. Reframing U.S. Military Strategy Toward Africa

Author:: John Griswold
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: How can the U.S. military best support the achievement of national strategic objectives in Africa? While much of the foreign policy discourse since President Biden’s inauguration has focused on China’s growing military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, curbing the effects of climate change, and the implications of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, scant attention has been paid to U.S. engagement in Africa. It is noteworthy that the Biden administration’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG) mentions a continent of more than 1.3 billion people — whose population is expected to double by 2050 — in one paragraph out of 23 substantive pages...
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

411. The Digital Asset Battlefield Between the United States and China

Author:: Michael B Greenwald
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: United States dollar dominance has underpinned American economic and geopolitical leadership since the Second World War. The tremendous structural and geopolitical advantages the United States derives from the hegemony of the dollar have contributed substantially to Washington’s military power, alliances, and strong hand in trade relations with other states. However, the convergence of a shifting international balance of power and the accelerated digitalization of the world economy will have major implications for this pillar of American strength.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Currency, Strategic Competition, and Digitization
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

412. Big Power Competition in the Indian Ocean: Will Economic or Strategic Logic Prevail?

Author:: Deepa Ollapally
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The Indian Ocean is becoming an area of competition between India and China later than Robert Kaplan foresaw in his seminal 2009 article in Foreign Affairs, but sooner than its resident powers might have predicted. So far, the competition has rung high decibel alarm bells in India (and the United States), without having reached the inflection point of actual military “power plays” that Kaplan implied. India and China witnessed military clashes on land in 2020 and currently face an impasse over their disputed border.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Economy, Strategic Competition, and Military
Political Geography:: China, India, and Indian Ocean

413. War on Corruption

Author:: Josh Rudolph
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Kleptocracies seem to enjoy powerful coherence between their domestic and foreign policies, given that they wield power at home and abroad through the same corrupt assemblage of actors, networks, tactics, and resources. By prioritizing the fight against corruption and kleptocracy, the United States can similarly pursue the most internally coherent grand strategy since it combined the containment of communism with neoliberal deregulation to win the Cold War. Doing so will require deeply reorienting foreign and domestic policy priorities by featuring the opposite side of the U.S. economic model, with less cowboy and more sheriff: well-regulated clean capitalism under the rule of law.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Corruption, Capitalism, Grand Strategy, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

414. India's Regional Connectivity and Indo-Pacific Partnerships

Author:: Constantino Xavier
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Standing by one of the India-Nepal border pillars near Jogbani, Bihar State, one gets a ground view of the paradox of geographic proximity and lack of connectivity in South Asia. Through treaty and tradition between the two neighbors, this is an open border. In practice, however, the terrain and lack of infrastructure poses a formidable barrier to the rising demands of modern-day mobility. Whether it is trade, tourism, or transportation, this border still separates more than it connects.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Tourism, Regional Integration, Borders, Mobility, Trade, and Transportation
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Nepal

415. Stagnant Things: The Department of Defense's Response to Information Warfare

Author:: Thomas Whittaker and Mike Schwille
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The information environment — too often a buzzword for defense technology firms and military academics — is the highly energetic arena where foreign adversaries and non-state actors alike shape the narrative of the great power competition.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Non State Actors, Strategic Competition, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

416. Sanctions Run Amok – The Undermining of U.S. Power

Author:: Keith A. Preble
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Well into its second year, the Biden administration has continued to grapple with persistent foreign policy challenges while new ones have emerged: North Korea has not curtailed its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs; negotiations with Iran on resuscitating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) remain stalled; and a Russian troop buildup near Ukraine may signal a potential invasion and full-scale conflict. In confronting these and other challenges, the United States continues to use economic sanctions as a mean of punishing, signaling, and coercing rivals into changing their foreign policy behaviors. As a tool of American economic power, policymakers often see sanctions as “Goldilocks” instruments that are “just right,” albeit ones that require time and patience to facilitate policy change.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, and Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

417. The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy: A Conversation with Matthew Kroenig

Author:: Matthew Kroenig and Dylan Land
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Matthew Kroenig is Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. His latest book is The Return of Great Power Rivalry: Democracy Versus Autocracy From the Ancient World to the U.S. and China. Dr. Kroenig has served in several positions in the U.S. Department of Defense and the intelligence community in the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations, including in the Strategy, Middle East, and Nuclear and Missile Defense offices in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the CIA’s Strategic Assessments Group. Dr. Kroenig is also Director of the Global Strategy Initiative and Deputy Director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Interview
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

418. The Exhaustion of Bosnia and Herzegovina's Dysfunctional Constitutional Regime

Author:: Jasmin Mujanović
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The footage is grainy. The cacophony of noise pours from the idling helicopters and the columns of police cars, motorcycles, and armored personnel carriers with their engines and blaring sirens. But the scenes are remarkable all the same. They show the city of Banja Luka, the second largest metropolitan area in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), on May 12, 1992. They depict a city under occupation by a regime in the process of orchestrating the first genocide in Europe since the Holocaust.
Topic:: Democracy, Constitution, History, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe and Bosnia and Herzegovina

419. Assessing Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) Initiatives Across the West – Lessons Learned

Author:: Elena Savoia, Michael King, Anna Ekström, Diána Hughes, Adam Baker, and Lauren LaBrique
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) programs worldwide aim to prevent individuals from engaging in terrorism. However, such programs vary widely in their approaches, which range from public awareness campaigns aimed at educating populations about the risks of violent extremist ideologies to in-person interventions for individuals who have already been radicalized and, in some instances, engaged in terrorist activities.
Topic:: Terrorism, Radicalization, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

420. The War on Terror Continues

Author:: Jytte Klausen
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Do jihadist terror organizations still represent a serious threat? If so, do they pose a serious threat to the West? The United States and Europe suffered few attacks during the past decade, and yet more jihadist groups are launching more attacks over a larger portion of the world than ever before. They all trace their origins and allegiances to al-Qaeda and its breakaway faction, the Islamic State, also known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)...
Topic:: Al Qaeda, Islamic State, War on Terror, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

421. The Terrorism of Tomorrow is Already Here

Author:: Phil Gurski
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Many experts who track global developments in terrorism over time are familiar with the work of American political scientist David Rapoport. The UCLA professor emeritus is best known for what he dubbed the “wave theory of terrorism.” This comprehensive overview of terrorist movements spanning 150 years posits that there have been four such “waves” — or shifts in motivation, techniques, and outcomes — of terrorist activity since the latter half of the nineteenth century...
Topic:: Terrorism, Non State Actors, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Global Focus

422. News Media and its Influence on the American Debate over War and Peace

Author:: Violet Gienger
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Even the most diligent news consumers, flooded with information, disinformation, and infotainment, miss key elements of the biggest stories. Journalists, pressed by deadlines and ever-shrinking resources — due to staff cuts and the elimination of foreign bureaus and even copy desks, for example — leave crucial gaps in coverage. The result is a dearth of the kinds of in-depth, well-rounded news and accountability journalism that the American public and their leaders depend on for decision-making in a democracy.
Topic:: Democracy, Media, News Analysis, Journalism, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

423. The Relationship between Energy Security, Exports and Economic Growth: The Case of the Middle East Countries

Author:: Gökhan Kartal
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: In this study, it is aimed to examine the relationship between energy security, growth and exports for 16 Middle Eastern countries between 1980 and 2016 by taking into account the 4 dimensions of energy security (4 A's of energy security). Unlike other studies on the subject of Middle Eastern countries, this study covers more Middle Eastern countries and a wider period, and takes into account the cross-sectional dependency. The results of empirical analysis conducted by using second-generation unit-root and cointegration methods demonstrate that there is cointegration relationship between the variables. According to the results obtained from AMG estimator, which also considered cross-section dependence; the 1% increase in energy security risk level reduces the economic growth by approximately 0.66%, while the 1% increase in exports increases the economic growth by 0.41%. Finally, Granger non-causality test results demonstrate that there is a bi-directional causality relationship between variables. The results highlight the importance of policies to be implemented policies to ensure energy security such as choosing safe trade routes in oil and gas trade, ensuring the security of the major crossing points in the region, developing policies to decrease the share of energy revenues/expenses in the region economies, implementing policies for country and route diversification, ensuring energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy sources to prevent environmental pollution.
Topic:: Security, Economic Growth, Exports, Dependency, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:: Middle East

424. What makes democracy possible? Transitions in Egypt and Tunisia after the Arab Uprisings

Author:: Osman Sahin
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: This article studies Egyptian and Tunisian transitions by investigating the effect of two factors, namely electoral system choice and the presence of competitive opposition parties. It suggests that, between 2011 and 2015, the electoral system choice and the presence of competitive political parties contributed to the transition to democracy in Tunisia while the same two factors were causes of the failed transition in Egypt. It concludes by arguing that during transitional phases, electoral system choice and presence of competitive political parties help institutionalization of normal, limited political uncertainty in a polity. Accordingly, these two factors compel cooperation and negotiation between different political actors, which in turn help democracy survive transitions.
Topic:: Democratization, Political Parties, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: North Africa, Egypt, and Tunisia

425. Turkey's Growing Role as a Security Actor in Somalia: Dynamics and Motivations

Author:: Abdurrahim Siradag
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Somalia has a special place in the foreign policy of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which has been in power since November 2002. Turkey's relations with Somalia started to develop after the official visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Somalia on 19 August 2011, who was the prime minister at that time, to support Somalis affected by severe drought and civil war. After 2011, Turkey launched one of the largest humanitarian aid campaigns to Somalia. Turkey has not only developed a soft power policy in Somalia but also started to implement a hard power policy. In this respect, Turkey has been training hundreds of Somali soldiers and police in both Ankara and Mogadishu since 2012. At the same time, Turkey opened its largest military base abroad in Somalia in 2017. This research explores the reasons and dynamics behind Turkey's deepening of its security policy in Somalia and sheds light on what Turkey's security policy means for Somalia. The research argues that there is a combination of factors driving Turkey's security policy towards Somalia, including socio-cultural, economic, and geopolitical. This study examines Turkey's security policy with a holistic approach, using conceptual and theoretical perspectives.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Soft Power, and AKP
Political Geography:: Africa, Turkey, Middle East, and Somalia

426. Corruption, FDI, and Trade Freedom Relationship Between Turkey and Latin American Countries

Author:: Alexander Camacho Murcia and E. Murat Özgür
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been always associated with a high level of trade openness and freedom environment, and with a lower incidence of institutional corruption. Because it is assumed that a high level of international capital mobility makes foreign investors more cautious when there is a fluctuation in political stability and institutional transparency. Most American countries (except Canada and the USA) have been always related to a lack of transparency in their institutional and bureaucratic procedures, which conduct to important levels of corruption and in consequence, to other serious issues such as prominent level of violence, or even the inequality phenomena. This study investigates whether the variables of corruption indices, trade openness and inflation rates have positive or negative effects on FDI between Turkey and American countries. For analyzing this econometric model, it was gathered information from OECD, COMTRADE, TUIK, Heritage Foundation, UNCTAD, and the World Bank Database. The observed data correspond to a decade (2005-2014) and were only taken a sample of 14 American countries. The empirical results of the present study revealed that there is a positive correlation between the trade openness index and FDI; and, it was found a positive correlation between corruption index, inflation, and FDI. The increase in the corruption index causes a 41% increase in FDI inflow.
Topic:: International Relations, Corruption, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Free Trade, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Turkey and Latin America

427. Motives behind Social Media Use: A Theoretical Assessment

Author:: Osman Uslu
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Purpose – The present study aims to explore the motives behind social media (SM) use. Methodology/Approach/Design- The prominent studies on social media use have been examined theoretically, classified in detail regarding SM types, and inferences have been made. In this context, the study is a literature review. Findings- The most emphasized SM sites in the lit-erature are Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, Snapchat, LinkedIn and YouTube. SM networking sites have usage differences depending on users’ age and purpose. Motives behind the SM use are mostly explained by the uses and gratification ap-proach. The most emphasized motives in SM use are social interaction, entertainment and infor-mation seeking. Finally, the effects of social mo-tives are higher than individual motives in social media use. Originality/Value- With this study, it is expected to contribute to the field by drawing a profile on SM use and increasing the knowledge about the motives that push individuals to use SM.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Internet, and Social Media
Political Geography:: Global Focus

428. China Makes a Move in the Middle East: How Far Will Sino-Arab Strategic Rapprochement Go?

Author:: Sine Ozkarasahin
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: With a well-planned strategy and a careful exploitation of the gaps opened by U.S. foreign policy shifts, China has successfully increased its role as a strategic actor in the Middle East, including by gaining a foothold in the regional arms market. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s early December visit to Saudi Arabia, upon King Salman’s invitation, exemplifies the recent improvement in Sino-Arab ties (Xinhua, December 8). While in Saudi Arabia, Xi initiated two new multilateral forums intended to strengthen engagement between China and the Arab world: the China-Arab States Summit and the China-Gulf Cooperation Council summit (Xinhua, December 11). In addition to deepening political rapprochement between Beijing and several regional countries, China is simultaneously establishing crucial military-strategic ties with key Middle Eastern states. Chinese-made drones are already present in the arsenals of multiple Arab countries and technological cooperation between Beijing and its regional counterparts is rapidly increasing. The most striking example in this regard was the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) revocation of the F-35 deal that constrained its cooperation with the Chinese tech and telecommunications giant Huawei over 5G technology (Al Arabiya News, December 14, 2021). As many Arab countries’ doubts about Washington’s commitment to regional security grow, more and more countries are increasingly open to entreaties from China.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Rapprochement
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

429. Finland and the Demise of China’s Polar Silk Road

Author:: Matti Puranen and Sanna Kopra
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Only a short time ago, considerable enthusiasm existed in Finland regarding Beijing’s efforts to forge an “Arctic corridor” of railroads and undersea tunnels, satellite ground stations, an airport for scientific expeditions, and massive biorefineries. In this, Finland was not alone but represented only a small branch of China’s comprehensive thrust to permanently establish a presence above the Arctic Circle. Yet, with the recently emerging geopolitical turbulence, China’s Arctic expansion is facing a standstill, even in Finland, which long seemed like its most viable partner in the region. By applying for NATO membership along with Sweden, Finland is turning westward, practically closing the gates on China’s Arctic expansion beyond Russia. Its story serves as an interesting microcosm on the rise and demise of China’s Arctic policy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Finland, and Arctic

430. An International Lifeline: Taiwan’s Parliamentary Outreach

Author:: Rup Narayan Das
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: For decades, China has made systematic efforts to internationally isolate Taiwan through a mix of coercion and diplomatic enticement. Taiwan, however, has broken through this isolation by engaging with other nations through robust parliamentary diplomacy in order to expand its international space and legitimacy. It is indeed an irony of contemporary history that although Taiwan fulfills the main requisites for statehood, such as territory, population and an effective governance structure, it is deprived of its rightful place in the community of nations multilaterally and also bilaterally at the behest of China. Most countries’ “One China” policies and state-to-state relationships with China preclude them from engaging in official interaction with Taipei, but the trend of parliamentary outreach between Taiwan and the rest of the world is gaining momentum. Such interactions provide opportunities for Taiwanese parliamentarians to interface with their counterparts from abroad, particularly with fellow democratic countries with which Taiwan lacks formal diplomatic relations. Moreover, these delegations have created something of an informal international parliamentary fraternity in support of Taiwan, which underscores a broader groundswell of goodwill in the international community. This article surveys some notable recent interactions in Taiwan’s expanding parliamentary diplomacy with the U.S. and other fellow democracies.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and Parliament
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and United States of America

431. The Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway and the Future of the Belt and Road Initiative

Author:: William Yuen Yee
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo watched over a video livestream as the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway (HSR) sped through its first trial run between Tegalluar Station and Casting Yard No. 4 (Antara, November 21). Yet the smiles plastered across the faces of the two world leaders belied the fraught, winding journey of the railway until this point, as well as the uncertainties surrounding its future. Upon completion, the 142-kilometer (88 mile) railway will connect Indonesia’s current capital city, Jakarta, with its fourth largest city, Bandung. Chinese state media has called it one of the “flagship” projects of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure development strategy widely viewed as the signature foreign policy project of Xi Jinping’s administration (Xinhua, November 16). After all, it was in a speech in Jakarta in 2013 that Xi first unveiled one of the BRI’s cornerstone development programs to bolster infrastructure connectivity—the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (ASEAN-China Centre, October 2, 2013).
Topic:: Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Railways
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

432. Will Mass Protests Force Xi to Change Course on Zero-COVID?

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The apparent failure by Beijing to determine new ways to handle the COVID-19 pandemic given what many consider the largest mass protests since the student movement of 1989 has exposed the limited abilities of the new Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership to handle unexpected events despite its extensive security and surveillance apparatus. CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping, who gained near-total control of the party apparatus at the 20th Party Congress late last month, is nowhere to be seen after tens of thousands of students on at least 50 campuses in a dozen-odd cities staged protests against the three-year-long pandemic-related lockdowns on Sunday, November 27. Crowds on the streets of cities including Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu and Urumqi also held impromptu demonstrations (Chinese New York Times, November 28; Deutsche Welle Chinese, November 28). The protestors demanded not only an end to Xi’s signature “zero tolerance” COVID regime but also called for the introduction of universal values banned by the party, such as personal liberty, freedom of expression and the rule of law. Some demonstrators even shouted incendiary slogans such as “CCP, step down” (共产党下台, Gongchandang xiatai) and “Xi Jinping, step down” (习近平下台, Xi Jinping xiatai) (Liberty Times, November 28). Many held aloft pieces of white paper, which simultaneously symbolized press censorship in China and the fact that their protests had nothing to do with “color revolutions” supposedly spread by “hostile foreign forces” (Radio French International, November 27; Voice of America, November 27).
Topic:: Protests, COVID-19, and Zero-COVID
Political Geography:: China and Asia

433. Meloni at the Helm: What Does Italy’s New Government Mean for Sino-Italian Relations?

Author:: Andrew R. Novo
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Questions about the unity of Italy’s new government on several key foreign policy issues persist, ranging from the extent of its support for Ukraine to its commitment to various European Union institutions. However, on the issue of China, the new government of Prime Minister (PM) Giorgia Meloni appears united. This bodes well for transatlantic cooperation and could spell trouble for Beijing, which not too long ago entertained ideas of using Italy as a friendly counterweight in Europe. Under Meloni, Italian foreign policy, particularly toward China, is unlikely to chart a dramatically new course. This is largely because the current government has prioritized its commitment to NATO and needs to focus on domestic issues rather than risk upsetting the international arena. While openings remain for Sino-Italian cooperation in economic terms, such cooperation will be geared toward supporting Italy’s domestic challenges and is unlikely to provide Beijing with the significant foothold that it has long hoped to gain in Europe.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

434. The Long Shadow of the 1962 War and the China-India Border Dispute

Author:: Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In the war that India and China fought between October 20 and November 20, 1962, India not only suffered a humiliating defeat but also lost a chunk of territory in Aksai Chin in Ladakh in eastern Jammu and Kashmir. Sixty years later, the Indian Army and China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are locked in a standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border, at Ladakh, which began in mid-2020 and continues through the present (Jamestown Foundation, March 1). Both sides’ corps commanders have held sixteen rounds of bilateral talks thus far and have reached agreements on the disengagement of troops from several points of friction and the establishment of several “buffer zones” in these areas (Xinhua, July 28). However, China has refused to return to the April 2020 status quo and the buffer zones have been carved largely out of Indian territory. Sixty years after it lost a large swath of territory in Ladakh, is India ceding ground there again to China?
Topic:: War, History, Territorial Disputes, and Borders
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

435. China’s Economy: More Debt than Meets the Eye

Author:: Antonio Graceffo
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Since the beginning of this year, investment banks and international financial organizations, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, have steadily downgraded their forecasts for the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) GDP growth in 2022 to around 3.2 percent (Nikkei Asia, October 7). Most analysts agree that Beijing is in a difficult economic position, but the situation has the potential to become far worse due to off-balance sheet liabilities. Such debt risks defaulting, or may otherwise need to be covered by the central government. Another drag on the country’s balance sheet that has yet to fully hit home is the impact of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) financing. Due to economic problems and debt crises in BRI partner countries, a large percentage of the initiative’s loans may have to be forgive or at least restructured. Before looking at its financing and hidden liabilities, it is necessary to establish an overall picture of the current PRC economy across a broad spectrum of indicators.
Topic:: Debt, Economy, Economic Growth, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Investment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

436. China Increases Support for Pakistan’s Naval Modernization with an Eye on the Indian Ocean

Author:: Syed Fazl-e-Haider
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In mid-July, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy and the Pakistan Navy (PN) held the “Sea Guardians-2” exercise in the waters off Shanghai (China Brief, October 4; Pakistan Television, July 12). The joint naval drills focused on neutralizing maritime security threats, particularly those that might jeopardize strategic sea lanes. The bilateral exercise also included joint target practice, anti-submarine, anti-aircraft and anti-missile drills (China Military Online [CMO], July 10). The drills built on the first iteration of the exercise, Sea Guardians-1, which was held in January 2020 in the North Arabian Sea off Karachi, Pakistan. The participation in these exercises of the guided missile frigate Taimur, which is the most advanced warship built by China for the PN, demonstrates the increasing level of Chinese support for the training and modernization of Pakistan’s naval forces (Global Times, July 10). Bilateral military ties, which are a mainstay of the China-Pakistan all-weather friendship and strategic partnership, have strengthened in recent years. China is the main supplier of military equipment to Pakistan, which from 2017-2021 absorbed nearly 47 percent of all Chinese arms exports (China Brief, March 25). In a move to further deepen defense ties, China provided Pakistan with J-10C multi-role fighters in late 2021 (South Asian Voices , April 12). In June, a high-powered Pakistani delegation comprising top brass from the army, navy and air force paid a visit to China at a time when tensions between China and the West were on the rise (CMO, June 12). The visit was part of the Pakistan-China Joint Military Cooperation Committee (PCJMCC), which is the highest body involved in facilitating bilateral defense cooperation. Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa also attended the top-level committee’s meeting, along with senior-most counterparts in the PLA. Both countries vowed to further deepen their strategic partnership in challenging times and enhance their joint military cooperation in training, technology and counterterrorism (Express Tribune , June 12).
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Navy, Modernization, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, Asia, and Indian Ocean

437. The Russia-Ukraine War: Has Beijing Abandoned Pragmatic Diplomacy?

Author:: Justyna Szczudlik
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Chinese diplomats contend that Beijing’s position on the “Russia-Ukraine conflict” (俄乌冲突 E wu chongtu) or the “Ukraine issue” (乌克兰问题, Wukelan wenti ) is “consistent and clear” (一贯的、明确的, yiguan de, mingque de) (People’s Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs [FMPRC], May 5). However, China’s paradoxical stance on the Russia-Ukraine War underscores the difficulties that Beijing faces in carrying out sophisticated diplomacy. This has already had repercussions for China’s national interests and ability to achieve its foreign policy objectives. Therefore, any change of course by Beijing coming out of the recently concluded 20th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress, appears unlikely. Throughout the Russia-Ukraine War, China has neither condemned Russia, nor endorsed Ukraine for its resistance and self-defense. However, official discourse indicates the PRC’s supportive posture towards Russia. For example, Beijing consistently accuses the West, primarily the U.S., of provoking Moscow through “constant eastward expansion by NATO” (北约不断东扩, beiyue buduan dong kuo). During his recent visit to Russia, National People’s Congress Standing Committee Chairman Li Zhanshu (栗战书) stated that China “understands and supports Russia” and echoed the Kremlin’s narrative that “the United States and NATO are expanding directly on Russia’s doorstep, threatening its national security and the lives of its citizens” (Twitter, September 13). Furthermore, in the first phone call between Chinese FM, Wang Yi (王毅) and his Russian counterpart Sergiei Lavrov following the 20th Party Congress, Wang said that China “firmly supports the Russian side, under the leadership of President Putin, to unite and lead the Russian people to overcome difficulties, eliminate disturbances, realize the strategic development goals and further establish Russia’s status as a major power on the international stage” (FMPRC, October 27). He also expressed China’s desire to deepen exchanges with Russia at all levels in order to promote international stability in a turbulent world.
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, Pragmatism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Ukraine

438. Can Beijing be Flexible on U.S. Policy?

Author:: John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: General Secretary Xi Jinping did not mention “America” in his opening report to the 20th Party Congress (Xinhua, October 16). Nevertheless, Xi made clear that China faces a difficult international environment, precipitated in large part by the U.S. challenge, which threatens the realization of national rejuvenation. For Xi, the threat appears particularly acute in two areas: technology and Taiwan. He called for winning the “battle of key core technologies” by building on breakthroughs in areas such as supercomputing and quantum computing, space exploration, nuclear energy, satellite navigation and biomedicine (Xinhuanet, October 16). On Taiwan, Xi issued a thinly veiled ultimatum to Washington, stating that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will strive for “peaceful reunification” to incorporate Taiwan into the Motherland, which he called “an inevitable requirement for realizing the great rejuvenation.” Should this approach fail, Beijing reserves the right to employ military force to counter “interference by external forces” and “Taiwan independence” separatists (Central Committee Taiwan Work Office, October 16).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

439. The Ukraine Crisis and China-India Relations

Author:: Amrita Jash
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On March 25, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a surprise visit to India after stopovers in Pakistan and Afghanistan (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China [FMPRC], March 25). The visit was the first by a high-level Chinese official to India since December 2019 and the ongoing border standoff that broke out in May 2020 along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh. The sudden stopover, which was not announced in advance, generated speculation over Beijing’s intentions, particularly as it occurred in the immediate aftermath of Russia initiating its “special military operation” against Ukraine on February 24. This resulted in international condemnation and boycotts, and the imposition of economic sanctions by the U.S., the European Union, Japan and others on Russia. However, countries such as China and India, made an exception by choosing neutrality in condemning Russia. But did this shared position make any difference in improving China-India ties? Hitherto, relations have not substantively improved, notwithstanding the modest progress in the recent border talks. Following the 16th round of Corps Commander level talks on July 17, China and India stressed the “four-point consensus” they had reached on the resolution of the border issues (Xinhuanet, July 29). This “consensus” was further cited as the reason for the disengagement of troops from Patrolling Point-15 in Gogra-Hot Springs (Global Times, September 9). Notably, the disengagement followed a year-long impasse in the talks process and coincided with both countries’ participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Political stability, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Ukraine, India, and Eastern Europe

440. Exploring the Domestic Foundations of Chinese Economic Sanctions: The Case of Australia

Author:: Scott Waldron, Darren J. Lim, and Victor Ferguson
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: More than two years have passed since the People’s Republic of China (PRC) began imposing a broad range of restrictions on Australian trade in what is widely regarded to be a campaign of economic coercion. Despite the apparent sanctions affecting numerous Australian export industries with high exposure to the mainland market, there is now a broad consensus that Beijing’s efforts have been unsuccessful. [1] The measures had a negligible impact on the Australian macroeconomy and did not drive Canberra to make any policy concessions to address Beijing’s long list of ostensible grievances (Australian Department of Treasury, September 6, 2021). It is well established that economic sanctions often fail to change state behavior, typically because the political demands of the sanctioning state are too high. But most sanctions still impose significant economic costs on their targets. Curiously—despite a widely held view that Australia was highly vulnerable to Chinese economic pressure (Global Times, June 10, 2020)—Beijing’s campaign fell short and appeared poorly targeted. The overwhelming majority of affected Australian industries were able to redirect their exports to other markets without significant friction.[2] The economic costs of some barriers, such as those on barley, were significantly higher for China than Australia (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, June 2020). Some of Australia’s industries that are most reliant on the Chinese market were left untouched altogether. [3] If—as is widely assumed—China’s objective was to coerce, why did its apparent sanctions not hit the mark and asymmetrically impose politically significant costs on the Australian economy? Exploring this question can yield new insight into the dynamics shaping Chinese economic sanctions—an instrument of statecraft Beijing continues to employ regularly, including recently against Lithuania in 2021 and Taiwan in early August (PRC Charge d’affaires Lithuania, May 3; United Daily News, August 5).
Topic:: Sanctions, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia

441. China’s Interests in Afghanistan One Year After the U.S. Withdrawal

Author:: Zafar Iqbal Yousafzai
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In late June, a severe earthquake struck southeastern Afghanistan. In the immediate aftermath of the disaster, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced it would provide 50 million RMB ($7.2 million) in emergency aid, including tents, blankets, cots and other sorely needed supplies to the impacted areas (People’s Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs (FMPRC), June 25). Beijing invests in Afghanistan to further its long-term economic, strategic and political interests. Since the U.S. withdrawal last year, China has had an opportunity to advance its interests and deepen its clout in Afghanistan. When Kabul fell, China did not condemn the move and announced that it respected the choice of the Afghan people—a sign of goodwill from Beijing to the Taliban that it subscribes to the narrative that the new government has the full support of the population (Xinhua, August 16, 2021). China has never been militarily involved in Afghanistan. Uyghur militants have found safe-haven in the country for decades, but the level of threat they pose to the PRC is debated even among Chinese analysts (China Brief, February 11). Despite such long-running concerns, Beijing was unperturbed by the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan last year. The PRC kept its embassy open through the fall of Kabul, and Beijing has sustained extensive diplomatic contact with the Taliban leadership to safeguard its security, economic and strategic interests in Afghanistan (Global Times, August 17, 2021). In fact, the PRC is seeking to carry out a complex balancing act in Afghanistan. Concerns about Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for extremist groups that could target neighboring states persist, but Beijing also perceives huge opportunities in Afghanistan’s natural resources, markets and potential to serve as a key node linking western China with South and Central Asia. In order to achieve a stable and secure Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which will advance China’s interests throughout Central Asia, Beijing needs a stable Afghanistan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Taliban, Political stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Asia, and United States of America

442. The Economic Outlook for Xi’s Third Term: Mounting Challenges, Dwindling Fiscal and Monetary Options

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: China’s decade-long economic slowdown is accelerating. The pace has picked up since former U.S. President Donald Trump launched his trade war against China in early 2018, and even more so since the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020. This year has been particularly difficult as stubborn zero-COVID policies have ground the economy to a halt, further pushed by the bursting of the real estate bubble that had been China’s most important engine of growth for decades. Many ask themselves how much of China’s deceleration is cyclical and how much is structural, but also how much can be reverted. On the first issue, the cyclical element of the ongoing deceleration of the Chinese economy is clearly important and adds additional downward pressure to the well-known structural factors, such as aging and decreasing labor productivity.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Economy, Xi Jinping, and Zero-COVID
Political Geography:: China and Asia

443. All the President’s Men – Corruption in the Xi Jinping Era

Author:: Martin Purbrick
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Since the opening up of the Chinese economy by Deng Xiaoping in 1979, China has grown wealthy, but corruption has also become pervasive at all levels of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Corruption has been a part of Chinese business and governance for millennia, but despite the grand pronouncements of the CCP about eradicating corruption, it has not only endured under the current system but grown to extraordinary heights. Due to deeply entrenched corruption across the government, as well as the variable spread of economic benefits, this issue will remain a severe challenge for the CCP as the Xi Jinping era enters its second decade. The necessity for the state security agencies to support political control by Xi will also ensure that anti-corruption purges continue to impact the police and security agencies.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Economy, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:: China and Asia

444. Will the Xi Jinping Leadership Take Up Reformist Policies After the 20th Party Congress?

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: That President Xi Jinping and his faction will dominate the 20th Party Congress is apparent from the Politburo announcement that the week-long, five-yearly conclave will take place on October 16. The Politburo meeting, which was held on August 30, said that the guiding principle of the party and country would remain “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era” (Gov.cn, October 16). The Politburo reasserted that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would follow principles laid down by Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and above all, Xi Jinping. However, the dictums on reform and the open door – as well as the “lie low” foreign policy – promulgated by “Chief Architect of Reform” Deng in the 1980s and 1990s were conspicuously absent from the Party Congress announcement. Instead, the communique emphasized the so-called “three continuances” (三个继续, san ge jixu). This is a reference to Xi’s efforts to uphold Mao Zedong-style “common prosperity” (共同富裕, gongtongfuyu); to sustain “party construction” (党的建设 (dang de jianshe) in order to ensure the loyalty of cadres; and to work toward the formation of a “community with a shared future for mankind” (人类命运共同体,renlei mingyun gongtongti) (Xinhua, August 30; Ming Pao, August 30).
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:: China and Asia

445. The Russia-India-China Trilateral After Ukraine: Will Beijing Take the Lead?

Author:: Jagannath P. Panda and Wooyeal Paik
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) foreign ministers’ meeting in late July, which included China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, People’s Republic of China (PRC) State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi exhorted member states to uphold the “Shanghai Spirit” (上海精神, Shanghai Jingshen) of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, mutual consultations, diverse civilizations, and the pursuit of common development (Gov.cn, July 29). He then presented a “five-point proposal” for building an SCO community “with a shared future” (CGTN, July 30). In doing so, Wang echoed President Xi Jinping’s call in his four-point proposal at the BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa) summit in June —albeit via a rather elemental poetic allegory of fire, wind, and water –to embark on a “righteous course” toward a shared global future premised on inclusive, comprehensive and close win-win cooperation (Qiushi, June 24). BRICS already has a “Plus” mechanism and is mulling an expansion to include “like-minded” partners.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, India, and Asia

446. Beijing Makes a Big Long-term Bet on Nuclear Power

Author:: John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Last fall, China suffered extensive power outages due to a combination of surging electricity demand and tight supply. A confluence of factors contributed to the energy supply shortage, but nearly all traced back to China’s struggle to manage its overdependence on coal for power generation: rising global coal prices; shuttering of old power plants as part of a push to enhance energy efficiency; emission-reduction efforts; an “unofficial” embargo on Australian coal imports due to geopolitical strife between Beijing and Canberra; and disparities in government price controls (power plants must purchase coal at market rates, but consumer prices are set in a narrow band) that incentivized plants to cease or slow operations rather than produce electricity at a financial loss (Caixin, October 12, 2021; Zaobao, July 14). In 2022, China has avoided a replay of last year’s energy crunch despite the supply shocks in the energy markets induced by the Ukraine conflict by increasing domestic coal production, exploiting the opportunity to import Russian oil and coal at discounted rates and continuing to steadily increase its renewable energy capacity. Boosting domestic coal production has been particularly essential to meet demand. This month, the National Energy Administration (NEA) reported that during the second quarter, China’s raw coal output rose 10 percent year-on-year, which the NEA highlighted as particularly noteworthy given it came on the basis of 16 percent growth in coal output in the same quarter last year (NEA, August 2). Another mitigating factor for China on the energy front has been heavy spring rainfall in many areas of the country that has increased hydropower output over 20 percent in the first half of this year—a substantial boost as hydroelectricity already accounts for about 15 percent of China’s overall energy mix (NEA, August 2; Global Times, May 5).
Topic:: Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Nuclear Power, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

447. With an Eye on Tibet, China Reacts Warily to Warming U.S.-Nepal Ties

Author:: Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: U.S. Under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights Uzra Zeya’s three-day visit to Nepal in May evoked a strong reaction from China. During the visit, Zeya, who is also President Joseph Biden’s Special Coordinator for Tibetan Issues, met with an array of high-level Nepali officials, including Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba as well as Nepali human rights activists. She also visited two Tibetan refugee settlements in Nepal where she interacted with refugees and enquired about their problems (Kathmandu Post, May 22). Zeya had arrived in Kathmandu after meeting the Dalai Lama, senior officials of the Tibetan exile government as well as officials and representatives of the Tibetan refugee community in India (The Hindu, May 18). The Chinese response was swift. The U.S. “should stop meddling in China’s internal affairs under the pretext of Tibet-related issues, and offer no support to the anti-China separatist activities of the Dalai clique,” People’s Republic of China (PRC) Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian said in a press conference (PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs, May 19). At the 14th meeting of the Nepal-China Bilateral Consultative Mechanism, which was held a few days after Zeya’s visit, Chinese officials reportedly expressed their misgivings over her engagements to their Nepali counterparts (Kathmandu Post, August 4). Then in July, Liu Jianchao, the head of the International Liaison Department of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) visited Kathmandu, where at meetings with leaders of Nepal’s major political parties, he asked them to reaffirm their commitment to the ‘One-China’ policy (Nepal Foreign Affairs, July 14).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Nepal, and Tibet

448. Security Dialogues with Chinese Characteristics

Author:: John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: This summer, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) organized two multilateral security dialogues with African nations, which highlight Beijing’s efforts to promote an alternative model of international security. In June, representatives of the PRC and six East African states convened in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia for the first China-Horn of Africa Peace, Governance and Development Conference, which is an initiative that was originally proposed by Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his January visit to Kenya (Guangming Daily, June 27; PRC Foreign Ministry, January 7). At the meeting, PRC Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa Xue Bing said that Beijing sought a greater role in the region, “not only in trade and investments but also in the area of peace and development” (South China Morning Post, June 23). The conference resulted in a joint statement committing to utilize confidence building, dispute resolution, dialogue and negotiation to achieve a “lasting peace” in the region (China News Service, June 23). In doing so, the parties pledged to uphold the “common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security concept,” which was first laid out by President Xi Jinping in 2014 as a core element of his vision for a new international security architecture (Xinhua, May 24). Xi cited the need to remain committed to this concept as motivation for the PRC’s new Global Security Initiative, which he introduced in April (China Brief, May 13). Earlier this week, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) hosted the second “China-Africa Peace and Security Forum,” which was virtually attended by senior defense leaders from nearly fifty African countries (Gov.cn, July 26). In his keynote remarks, State Councilor and Defense Minister Wei Fenghe read a congratulatory letter from Xi, which hailed the resilience of Sino-African friendship in a challenging international landscape and called for the implementation of the Global Security Initiative (People’s Daily, July 26). Although somewhat short on specifics, Beijing has promoted the Global Security Initiative as a positive-sum, “common security” model in contrast to the militaristic, zero-sum approach it ascribes to the United States (China Brief, July 15).
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

449. The Real U.S.-China 5G Contest is Just Getting Started

Author:: Philip Hsu
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On June 6, China declared the three-year anniversary of its business deployment of 5G, with the country having invested nearly 185 billion yuan in related infrastructure in 2021 alone (Xinhua Baoye, June 5). However, China’s 5G ambitions, which continue to form a substantial component of its national and international development policies, began years ago with Huawei. After Apple revolutionized the smartphone, demand for sophisticated computer “chips” and other components skyrocketed. Companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) and Foxconn capitalized on this shift to become the main pillars of Taiwan’s economy. In addition to supplying Samsung, Apple and HTC, a lesser-known, nominally private Chinese company, Huawei was also starting to make smartphones around this time using Taiwanese hardware (Nikkei Asia, 2016). Although in recent years up to 60 percent of 5G-capable Huawei phone components have been manufactured in China, which is due in large part to U.S. sanctions against it and other Chinese technology companies, a new technological Cold War is unlikely to materialize over 5G. The economic stakes over advanced computing and a new generation of telecommunications infrastructure are too high for the international community to afford any one nation or corporation primacy across the deep and diverse set of software, hardware and human capital requirements this technology will demand.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Strategic Competition, and 5G
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

450. China’s Shifting Approach to Alliance Politics

Author:: John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: For decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has abstained from seeking formal alliances. Chinese leaders often invoke the principle of advancing state-to-state relations through “dialogue rather than confrontation [and] partnerships rather than alliances” (对话不对抗、结伴不结盟, duihua bu duikang, jieban bu jiemeng) (Xinhuanet, June 23; Gov.cn, November 22, 2021). The PRC highlights its multitude of strategic partnerships and lack of official alliances as emblematic of its self-proclaimed anti-hegemonic approach to international relations, which is predicated on inclusivity, mutual respect and “win-win cooperation.” Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda regularly juxtaposes this purportedly positive-sum approach to world politics with its stock depiction of the United States as a decaying but violent empire, which practices a ruthless brand of power politics based on zero-sum thinking. For the CCP, America’s “cold war mentality” manifests in its global military presence and formal security alliances in Europe and Asia, which Beijing characterizes as “closed and exclusive cliques” (PRC Foreign Ministry [FMPRC], April 12; China Brief, October 22, 2021).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Security, and Alliance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

451. Will the China-Pakistan Corridor Get a Boost with a New Government in Islamabad?

Author:: Syed Fazl-e Haider
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On June 10, the Foreign Office in Islamabad received a diplomatic communication from the Pakistani ambassador in Beijing (The News, June 13). China assured Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif, who replaced former PM Imran Khan in April, that it is eager to work with the present government (PRC Foreign Ministry [FMPRC], June 17). China also confirmed the rollover of a $2.3 billion loan to Pakistan at a reduced rate, which is a great help to the cash-strapped nation (The Express Tribune, June 22). Furthermore, China agreed to extend additional financial assistance between $2.5 to $2.8 billion, and pledged to support Pakistan’s fragile economy through the multi-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) (Business Standard, June 29). Chinese leadership also urged the present government to reinvigorate CPEC projects, which were neglected under Imran Khan’s government (The News, June 13; Business Recorder, June 15). However, PM Sharif’s government has inherited a plethora of problems and issues plaguing progress and causing delays in the execution of projects that fall under the umbrella of CPEC.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Asia

452. No Choice but to Lie Flat: Youth Unemployment Surges in China

Author:: John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Pity the class of 2022. The job market in China has long been a gauntlet for college graduates as the country’s largely industrial economy does not generate sufficient opportunities in the knowledge industries to satisfy the career aspirations of its growing number of college graduates. However, prospects for the current crop of jobseekers are particularly grim with a record 10.76 million college students graduating this year (Wuhan Evening News, May 24). Recent graduates must navigate an intensely competitive labor market where demand for jobs greatly outstrips supply due to the negative ramifications of the dynamic clearance zero-COVID policy, which has led to mass hiring freezes and layoffs. Regulatory crackdowns on private businesses, which reached a crescendo last year, have fostered uncertainty in the technology and private education industries, sectors where many graduates had previously found work (South China Morning Post, March 20). According to the annual “College Student Employability Survey Report” released by the recruitment firm Zhaopin (招聘), only 46.7 percent of graduating college students had received job offers as of mid-April, which is down from 62.8 percent last year (Hangzhou Daily, April 28). Not only have fewer graduates found work, but those that have, are earning less this year with an expected monthly salary of 6,295 yuan ($939), a six percent decrease from 2021.
Topic:: Economy, Youth, and Unemployment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

453. 16 + 1: China’s Push Into Central and Eastern Europe Loses Momentum

Author:: Filip Jirouš
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Since its inception in 2012, the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC; 中国—中东欧国家合作, Zhongguo—Zhong Dong Ou Guojia Hezuo), better known as the 16+1 or 17+1 initiative, has often been described as a security risk with the potential to divide European structures and make them serve the interests of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC). The 16+1 is a Sinocentric economic cooperation initiative comprising China and 16 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, which share only a mutual Communist past as a common denominator (in 2019, Greece, which is heavily indebted to China, joined, and the platform was briefly renamed to 17+1). Apart from several different formats such as inter-party dialogues and think tank conferences, the 16+1 holds annual summits attended by state heads, with Premier Wen Jiabao (温家宝) and then Li Keqiang (李克强) the official highest-ranking PRC representatives in attendance. In comparison, two other, similar, Sinocentric regional platforms — China-CELAC Forum (中国-拉共体论坛, Zhongguo- Lagongti Luntan); and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC: 中非合作论坛, Zhongfei Hezuo Luntan) — are regularly attended by President and General Secretary Xi Jinping (习近平) (China-CELAC Forum, March 1, 2018). Thus far, FOCAC has generated the greatest level of interest from participating regional countries (China Brief, December 3, 2021). By contrast, several CEE countries have distanced themselves from the 16+1 platform: in 2021, Lithuania quit the group and this May, a Czech parliamentary committee urged the government to consider making the same move.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

454. Unemployment Monitoring and Early Warning: New Trends in Xinjiang’s Coercive Labor Placement Systems

Author:: Adrian Zenz
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In mid-2019, the first efforts to systematically research and conceptualize state-sponsored forced labor systems in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) took place (Journal of Political Risk, December 2019). First, this research examined the placement of detainees in Vocational Skills Education and Training Centers (VSETCs, 职业技能教育培训中心, zhiye jineng jiaoyu peixun zhongxin), which function as re-education camps; and second, the findings detailed the transfer of rural surplus laborers (农村劳动者转移就业, nongcun laodongzhe zhuanyi jiuye) into secondary or tertiary sector work – referred to as Poverty Alleviation through Labor Transfer (脱贫转移就业, tuopin zhuanyi jiuye). In addition to general evidence for coercive labor placements into labor-intensive manufacturing, scholars uncovered evidence of coercive labor transfers for specific economic sectors such as cotton and tomato picking, as well as the production of polysilicon for solar panels (Newlines Institute, December 2020; CBC News, October 29, 2021; Bloomberg, April 2021).[1] Much of the evidence implicating these industries came from publicly available government data, media or company reports, typically dating from between 2017 and 2020. Unfortunately, since then, such evidence has become much sparser. This examination argues that this falloff in information is not just due to government censorship. Rather, it also reflects systemic and concerning changes to the ways that coercive labor placements in Xinjiang are being consolidated.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Unemployment, Domestic Policy, and Forced Labor
Political Geography:: China and Asia

455. The Enemy of My Friend Remains My Friend: China’s Ukraine Dilemma

Author:: Horia Ciurtin
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: State media in China remains equivocal about the level of destruction and mayhem caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, the Chinese government has stated it will meet the challenge of overcoming strained global supplies resulting from the conflict, and has emphasized that the nation’s food security will be ensured (People’s Daily, June 2; China News Service, May 27). Nevertheless, given Ukraine’s position as a global agricultural supplier, China has not fully appreciated the scope of the problem. At a broader level, the war is a litmus test for China’s ability to navigate geopolitical troubles along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Thus far, the conflict has underscored the difficulties facing China in moving beyond convenient cordialities to play the role of a benign ‘balancer’ in global politics. In its relationships with Moscow and Kyiv, Beijing is entangled financially with both sides. Furthermore, China is now exposed to secondary sanctions due to its economic entanglement with Russia. At the same time, its investments, construction projects and supply chains that traverse Ukraine risk destruction as the war drags on.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Investment, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: China, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Asia

456. China and Sri Lanka’s Debt Crisis: Belt and Road Initiative Blowback

Author:: Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Sri Lanka is in the grip of an unprecedented crisis. For several months, the country has been reeling under a severe foreign exchange crisis. In early May, Foreign Minister Ali Sabry said that its usable forex reserves were just $50 million (Daily News, May 5). As a result, Sri Lanka has been forced to suspend repayment of $51 billion worth of debt owed to China, Japan and other foreign creditors (The Hindu, April 12; The Island, April 13). The country has also been unable to pay for imports of essential commodities, and has experienced serious shortages of food, fuel and medicine (The Island, January 15). The economic crisis has in turn triggered a political crisis. Public anger has boiled over onto the streets. Angry protesters have been calling for the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa (Colombo Telegraph, April 7). The Rajapaksa family has dominated Sri Lankan politics for decades and several members of the family are in positions of power as ministers, legislators or heads of corporations and departments. Sri Lankans want the entire clan out. Some of them, including Mahinda, resigned under public pressure in recent months (Island, April 17). Although Gotabaya remains president and under the country’s executive presidential system, continues to wield enormous power, it is evident that the influence of the Rajapaksas has declined. The unfolding crises in Sri Lanka have implications beyond the island. China is among Sri Lanka’s largest bilateral lenders and has played a big role in the island’s infrastructure development. Sri Lanka is a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Despite China’s pledges that BRI would boost Sri Lanka’s economic and social development by transforming it into “the hub of the Indian Ocean”, Chinese loans are widely believed to have pushed the country into a ‘debt trap’ (Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Sri Lanka, June 16, 2017). How have the crises impacted China’s image in Sri Lanka and will the decline of the Rajapaksas, widely regarded as ‘pro-China,’ impact Sino-Sri Lankan relations? Finally, will the Sri Lankan crises affect the fate of BRI?
Topic:: Debt, Development, Politics, Infrastructure, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, Asia, and Sri Lanka

457. Mongolia’s Currency Crisis: Made in China?

Author:: Antonio Graceffo
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: When COVID-19 lockdowns closed the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) borders in 2020, imports entering Mongolia came to a grinding halt, leading to domestic inflation and product shortages. Exports also declined significantly, further constricting the flow of U.S. dollars into the country. More than two years later, China continues to pursue its “Zero-COVID” policy and the Russia-Ukraine war is driving up global gas and energy costs. An unwitting victim of decisions made in Beijing and Moscow, Mongolia is facing currency devaluation, high inflation, and a shortage of dollars.
Topic:: Currency, COVID-19, Economic Crisis, and Zero-COVID
Political Geography:: China, Mongolia, and Asia

458. Another Potemkin Visit? Rethinking the UN Human Rights Chief’s Upcoming Trip to Xinjiang

Author:: Christelle Genoud
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In March, United Nations (UN) High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet announced an agreement with China for a May visit, which includes access to Xinjiang. The exact date for the visit has yet to be determined, but recent reports indicate it is due to take place before the end of this month, which will make Bachelet the first UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to visit China in 17 years (China Daily, May 11). Negotiations were stalled for years with Bachelet first indicating intent to report on Xinjiang in a 2018 request for unhindered access to “all regions of China” (Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), September 10, 2018). At the end of April, a UN advance team arrived in Guangzhou to quarantine before traveling to Xinjiang to lay the groundwork for Bachelet’s visit (South China Morning Post (SCMP), April 25.
Topic:: Human Rights, United Nations, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Xinjiang

459. Future Global Policeman? The Growing Extraterritorial Reach of PRC Law Enforcement

Author:: Martin Purbrick
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The recently signed security agreement between the Solomon Islands and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), along with the support of Chinese police to the Solomon Islands government to suppress social unrest in November 2021, highlight the increasing international deployment of PRC law enforcement (China Daily, April 2). This deployment follows several decades of expanding PRC international law enforcement activity, which is intended for extraterritorial enforcement action, seeking the return of fugitives, and as part of China’s engagement with other countries. The 2021 violence in the capital, Honiara, led to destruction in the local Chinatown and the subsequent deployment of Chinese police officers, who have previously provided equipment and training to the Solomon Islands. The China Police Liaison Team is led by Zhang Guangbo, an officer of the rank of Commissioner third class, who stated that the deployment is intended to protect the safety of Chinese communities in the Solomon Islands as well as to contribute to the overall stability in the islands (Embassy of the PRC in the Solomon Islands, March 4). There has been considerable unease in wider region over the expanded deployment of Chinese police officers to the Solomon Islands. The governments of Australia, Japan, and the United States have all criticized the security pact, and have raised concerns that the deployment of Chinese police officers could lead to a future military presence. Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Marise Payne stated on March 25 that “Australia is aware of the proposed draft Security Cooperation agreement between China and Solomon Islands…We would be particularly concerned by any actions that undermine the stability and security of our region, including the establishment of a permanent presence such as a military base” (Australian Ministry for Foreign Affairs, March 2022). In response to these concerns, the Solomon Islands High Commissioner to Australia has said that if Chinese police officers were called on for assistance they would be under the command of the Royal Solomon Islands Police and stated that “We will try and do our best in terms of dealing with them to make sure that what is happening in other countries where, like Hong Kong, doesn’t happen in our country” (Solomon Times, 6 May 2022).
Topic:: Security, Politics, Law Enforcement, and Economy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

460. The Storms to Come: China and Natural Disasters

Author:: John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The Chinese government is currently focused on sustaining its “dynamic clearance” zero-COVID strategy, while also mitigating the negative externalities of this approach, including shortfalls in food supply and access to medical services in Shanghai and other major urban centers (China Brief, April 8). Last Friday, netizens temporarily overwhelmed censors on WeChat to widely share the video- “Voices of April” (四月之声, si yue zhi sheng), which highlights the nightmarish lockdown experiences of many Shanghai residents (China Digital Times, April 23, 2022). Mounting popular frustration with the government’s pandemic response underscores how environmental factors, which include not only diseases but also natural disasters, threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) political standing. Water-related disasters such as the severe flooding that devastated Henan province last summer, and the extended drought that hit southeast China beginning in late 2020 are a rising risk due to climate change and extensive environmental degradation in China (Xinhuanet, July 31, 2021; Sina, December 9, 2021).
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Governance, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: China and Asia

461. China’s 2022 Defense Budget: Behind the Numbers

Author:: Amrita Jash
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: At the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress in early March, the Chinese government announced a defense budget of 1.45 trillion yuan (about $229 billion) for fiscal year 2022, which is a 7.1 percent year-on-year increase from 2021 (Xinhua, March 5). After years of double digit increases in the 2000s and early 2010s, this is the seventh consecutive year that China’s defense spending has grown by single digits. Nevertheless, China has moved up in the global defense spending rankings, and is now second only to the United States in expenditures. In the Indo-Pacific region, China’s military spending increasingly dwarfs that of its neighbors. For example, China now spends more on its military than Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and India combined (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute [SIPRI], April 2021). For instance, at $229 billion, China’s military spending is three times that of India’s $70 billion figure for 2022 (The Economic Times, March 5). An increase in Beijing’s defense budget raises red flags for China’s neighbors and the U.S. given the growing tensions over Taiwan, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Sino-Indian border dispute in the Himalayas. However, in Chinese eyes, as Beijing-based military expert Wei Dongxu argues, the budget is “proper and reasonable” (Global Times, March 5).
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Affairs, Budget, and Transparency
Political Geography:: China and Asia

462. China and the Ongoing Political Crisis in Pakistan

Author:: Syed Fazl-e Haider
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is closely monitoring the rapidly developing political crisis in Pakistan. The current upheaval stems from the introduction in Parliament of a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Imran Khan, and his subsequent allegation that the motion is due to a foreign conspiracy to topple his government. On Sunday, the Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament), who is a member of Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) party, dismissed the no-confidence vote as a violation of Article 5 of the Constitution, which establishes loyalty to the state as the basic duty of every citizen (Dawn, April 3). Following the dismissal, President Arif Alvi dissolved the National Assembly on the Prime Minister’s advice (The News , April 3). These developments are unfolding in the context of “letter gate,” which refers to Khan’s recent allegations that the no-confidence motion introduced by the opposition is driven by the efforts of a foreign power, which he later claimed was the US, to induce regime change in Pakistan. Yesterday, Pakistan’s Supreme Court declared both the Deputy Speaker’s dismissal of the motion again Khan, and the president’s decision to dissolve parliament unconstitutional. The Supreme Court restored the National Assembly and ordered it to reconvene on Saturday to hold a vote on the no-confidence motion (Dawn, April 7). China’s state-run media has reported extensively on the whole drama from the deputy speaker’s ruling to the Supreme Court’s verdict (Xinhua, April 8; NDTV, April 3).
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Strategic Stability, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, and Asia

463. The Beijing Olympics in Retrospect: An Anti-Human Rights Politics Machine

Author:: Christelle Genoud
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: As the U.S. and other Western nations announced diplomatic boycotts of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) frequently exhorted the international community to keep politics out of the games (People’s Daily, December 8, 2021). Spokespersons of the Beijing Organizing Committee also objected to the “politicization” of the Olympic Games, and claimed that the closed loop Olympic bubble was solely a COVID-19 containment measure necessitated by growing concerns over the spread of the Omicron variant in China (Global Times, January 5). Although, the creation of a closed loop bubble was ostensibly undertaken for epidemic prevention purposes, it also had the impact of isolating athletes and journalists, and forestalling unwanted international focus on poor human rights conditions in China.
Topic:: Human Rights, Politics, Sports, and Olympics
Political Geography:: China and Asia

464. Organized Crime on the Belt and Road

Author:: Martin Purbrick
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The continued rapid economic growth of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the past decade has brought greater commerce and investment to Asia through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, as China’s overseas economic footprint has grown, Chinese organized crime groups have also expanded their activities to become a regional problem. President Xi Jinping first introduced the BRI in 2013 when he proposed to Asian leaders jointly building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, both of which PRC officials later commonly came to call the BRI. The expansion of Chinese organized crime across Asia encompasses multiple areas of activity: online fraud (including pyramid schemes), online gambling, human trafficking (for slavery and prostitution), animal or animal parts trafficking (for use in traditional Chinese medicine), and money laundering (of the proceeds of crime from the PRC).
Topic:: Infrastructure, Economic Growth, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: China, Malaysia, Asia, Philippines, Cambodia, and Myanmar

465. Why Beijing Wants the Dalai Lama to Reincarnate

Author:: Tenzin Dorjee
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: A strange battle is waiting to unfold at the center of the Sino-Tibetan conflict: the fight over the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation. As the 86-year-old Tibetan leader, who has spent most of his life in exile, advances further in age, there is growing uncertainty about where, or whether, his reincarnation might appear. In a 2011 statement, he laid out several different succession scenarios, one of which was the possibility that he might bring the lineage to an end (Office of his Holiness the Dalai Lama, September 24, 2011). The Chinese government was incensed; it vowed to install its own 15th Dalai Lama after the demise of the incumbent—with or without his consent (Tibetan Review, December 3, 2015).
Topic:: Religion, Domestic Politics, Dalai Lama, and Reincarnation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Tibet

466. China and Russia: Shackled to a Corpse?

Author:: John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Almost as soon as Russian tanks began their bloody crawl toward Kyiv, debate ensued over whether Chinese leaders had advance knowledge of the Kremlin’s war plans. The broader Chinese foreign policy community was certainly dumbstruck as U.S. warnings of an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine were discounted as geopolitical ploys (Global Times, February 18; Stimson, February 28). However, given the highly personalized nature of the Sino-Russian strategic partnership— President Xi Jinping has met with his counterpart Vladimir Putin 38 times since 2013 — the top leadership was assuredly not entirely in the dark (FMPRC, December 15, 2021). As competition with the U.S. has intensified under Xi, Russia has consolidated its position as China’s most consequential strategic partner. However, China is increasingly concerned that Putin’s war and the resultant international backlash are severely damaging Russia. Some elites have also condemned Russia’s brutality and unilateral aggression, which underscores mounting anxiety that China is tied to a partner that is both weaker and more belligerent than it had previously realized (China Times, March 1). In the current situation, Xi comes off poorly regardless of how much foreknowledge he possessed. If he was naïve about Putin’s designs, he looks weak for allowing a lesser partner to drag China into a confrontation with the West. If Xi cut Putin a blank check for aggression, this may intensify muted but pointed domestic criticism of his foreign policy acumen including his decision to privilege ties with Russia over relations with the West, which are more integral to China’s economic and technological development.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eastern Europe, and Asia

467. City of Vice: Macau, Gambling, and Organized Crime in China

Author:: Martin Purbrick
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In November 2021 and January 2022, the Macau Special Administrative Region (SAR) Judiciary Police arrested 13 individuals involved in operating two separate casino VIP customer “junkets” for engaging in illegal gambling activities, running a criminal syndicate, and money laundering (Macau Judiciary Police, November 29, 2021; January 31). The criminal groups used their VIP junket business in Macau casinos to recruit mainland Chinese residents to engage in illegal online gambling on overseas platforms, and illicit side-betting. The proceeds of the syndicate were then laundered and transferred through the junket accounts of the casinos using underground banks. These developments underscore how gambling in Macau has grown from small beginnings, as tolerant Portuguese administrators did not want to unduly antagonize local Chinese, to a multi-billion dollar business that has been infiltrated by organized crime groups for much of its modern history. During Portuguese rule (1557–1999) Macau was described as the “city of the name God,” hosting the religious orders of St. Augustine, St. Dominic, and St. Francis, as well as convents and Catholic churches (Cultural Affairs Bureau, Macau Government). In the 20th century, Macau became a city of vice as casino gambling emerged as the dominant business, supported by related prostitution, money lending, and money laundering from mainland China. After the return of sovereignty and administration from Portugal to China in 1999, Macau has had extraordinary economic success and relative political stability compared to the neighboring Hong Kong SAR. Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose from $6.458 billion in 1999 to $45,103 billion in 2016 at average annual growth rate of 12 percent. This economic growth, however, has been increasingly dominated by the gambling sector, which in 2013 accounted for over 60 percent of GDP. Casino “gross gambling revenue” in Macau has surpassed Las Vegas and the city is effectively the world’s largest gambling center. [1] However, as the gambling sector has grown, so has the organized crime long associated with that business that has become a domestic problem for China and has impacted other countries in Asia. A particular concern for Beijing is the Macau gambling industry’s role in facilitating capital flight.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Borders, Gambling, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Macau

468. Gay in the PLA: Chinese Military Views on Homosexuals Serving in the Armed Forces

Author:: Brian Waidelich
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Chinese President Xi Jinping has identified the recruitment and retention of top-notch human capital as key to the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) transformation into a “world-class military” by mid-century. In late January 2022, under Xi’s guidance as chairman, China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) issued its “Decision on Strengthening Military Talent Work in the New Era” (关于加强新时代军队人才工作的决定, Guanyu jiaqiang xin shidai jundui rencai gongzuo jueding), which calls human talent “a key element driving the Chinese military’s high-quality development and for winning the initiative in military competition and future warfare.” The decision calls on the PLA to develop high quality, professional talent in key areas—joint operations command, new-type combat forces, science and technology innovation, and strategic management—and for these individuals to provide “firm support” for achieving the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) military-strengthening goal and building the PLA into a world-class military (Xinhua, January 26). The CMC’s decision echoes similar past statements by Chinese leaders who have emphasized the need for the “right” kind of people to lead and support China’s armed forces (US Army War College, July 23, 2021). A common thread is the requirement for PLA personnel to fill increasingly specialized billets as the force receives and operates new, high-tech information systems, weapons, and equipment (China Brief, January 14). Apart from pronouncements of desired education and experience levels for incoming servicemembers, the PLA also publicizes certain exclusion criteria. The PLA’s official conscription and recruitment website, for example, specifies several physical requirements including minimum height and passable body mass index (Zhongguo Zhengbing Wang, January 14, 2021). However, evidence indicates other potential exclusion criteria for Chinese service members that are less clearly stated. This article offers a preliminary analysis of PLA views on homosexuals—in most cases, gay men specifically—serving in China’s armed forces. [1] The analysis draws upon 12 academic papers published by PLA-affiliated authors between 2009 and 2019 whose research focused on issues related to homosexuality and/or homosexuals serving in China’s armed forces. Ten of the 12 studies involved test subjects. This topic was difficult to explore due to the paucity of primary source material (PLA authorities may deem content on sexual minorities sensitive and unfit for public consumption). Yet it remains an important issue, as it has implications for the talent pool the PLA can draw from and for homosexual servicemembers’ ability to survive, thrive, and contribute to China’s objective of developing a world-class military force.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Military Affairs, LGBT+, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

469. China and Pakistan: Strains in the All-Weather Partnership?

Author:: Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: China and Pakistan have formally launched Phase II of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship venture in China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). During Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to Beijing on February 3-6 for the Winter Olympics, the two sides signed a Framework Agreement on Industrial Cooperation to kick off the second phase of CPEC, which will focus on the development and industrialization of special economic zones (SEZs) (Pakistan Today, February 4). The joint statement issued at the end of Khan’s visit noted that “the two sides signed or concluded a number of agreements / MoUs, covering bilateral cooperation in areas of economic and technical, industry, investment, infrastructure, space, vaccine, digitalization, standardization, disaster management, culture, sports, and vocational education” (for the full text of the China-Pakistan joint statement see People’s Republic of China, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, February 6). According to Pakistan’s Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) on CPEC Affairs Khalid Mansoor, CPEC’s second phase will attract multi-billion dollar investments to Pakistan. Representatives of around 500 Chinese companies met with Khan in Beijing, and per the Prime Minister’s remarks to Pakistani media following the visit, expressed interest in investing in industry, agriculture, information technology, infrastructure, housing and construction, mining and oil refining (Business Recorder, February 8). The big question, however, is whether this ostensible interest from Chinese businesses will translate into hard cash commitments. China is concerned over the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan. In the run-up to Khan’s visit, Pakistani militants carried out several major attacks in the country. On January 17, the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP), also known as Pakistani Taliban, opened fire on a security checkpoint in Islamabad (Dawn, January 19). A few days later, the newly formed Baluch Nationalist Army (BNA) carried out a bomb attack in a busy market in Lahore (Express Tribune, January 20). Hours before Khan left for China, Baluch militants struck again, this time attacking security forces’ camps in Panjgur and Naushki in Baluchistan province in southwestern Pakistan (Dawn, February 2). Then on February 5, the TTP killed five Frontier Corps personnel at a security checkpoint in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (Dawn, February 7). Last year, Pakistan suffered 207 terrorist attacks, a 42% increase over 2020, according to a study by the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, an independent think-tank based in Islamabad. Fatalities from terror attacks increased by 51% over the previous year. [1] Worryingly for Beijing, Pakistani militant groups have increasingly threatened Chinese nationals. Four of the attacks in 2021 targeted Chinese nationals and at least 17 Chinese workers were killed in these attacks. As China and Pakistan move into Phase II of CPEC, the safety of Chinese projects and personnel in Pakistan will be a key concern.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Asia

470. What is at Stake in China-Bhutan Boundary Negotiations?

Author:: Jagannath P. Panda
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Satellite imagery reveals that China has recently accelerated construction along its border with Bhutan. Underway since 2020, the project includes over 200 structures, with several two-story buildings in six locations (Times of India, January 13). Bhutan has not commented on the situation in keeping with its policy to refrain from public discussion of border issues, whereas Beijing has framed the development as “normal construction activities on its own territory” (The Hindu, January 13). India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has acknowledged that it is monitoring China’s bridge-building activities over the Pangong Tso lake (India MEA, January 6). In late December, China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs announced the “standardization” of the names of 15 places (eight residential areas, four mountains, two rivers, and one mountain pass) in the Northeast Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh that China also claims and calls “Southern Tibet” (藏南, Zangnan). This is the second instance of China renaming localities in Arunachal Pradesh; the first occurred in 2017 (Global Times, December 30, 2021). India called it a “ridiculous exercise to support untenable territorial claims” (Indian MEA, January 6). Though 2022 has only begun, China’s various intimidation tactics against India are already in full swing: from renaming places and circulating videos of People’s Liberation Army soldiers raising the five-starred red flags of China, supposedly, in the Galwan Valley as part of their New Year celebrations, to expanding its dual use infrastructure along the Himalayan border (Global Times, January 1; The Print, January 13). According to state media, China has been strengthening infrastructure-related projects in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). Beijing claims its infrastructure push in Tibet is intended to support economic development, but the Indian side interprets the projects as serving dual use, or, military purposes (China Brief, November 19, 2021). While Chinese sources claim that India was making a “fuss,” they did not, however, entirely deny these reports (Global Times, January 19).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Borders
Political Geography:: China, India, Asia, and Bhutan

471. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Hits Bottom in Balochistan

Author:: Kiyya Baloch and Akbar Notezai
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In early January, several hours of heavy rain exposed poor infrastructure and exaggerated claims of massive development in Gwadar. The largely deserted port city sits on the Iranian border in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province, which is wracked by poverty, militancy, and violence. Despite its challenging location, Gwadar has long been touted as the crown jewel of the much heralded China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the $62 billion megaproject connecting western China with the Arabian sea (China Brief, January 17, 2020). On January 4, heavy rains disrupted routine activities, forcing schools, restaurants, and shops to shut down. The town’s main streets and roads, as well as its tiny airport, were flooded (Twitter/KiyyaBaloch, January 4). Cars floated down roads and people used small wooden dhows to navigate flooded streets. Local reports claimed that in the remote southern parts of Gwadar, thousands of people fled their homes (Dawn, January 5). In the city center, which is about three miles from the seaport where the China Overseas Port Holding Company (COPHC) is building a $250 million coastal port, officials from the Pakistan Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said floodwaters had reached heights of four to six feet (ARY News, January 4; Balochistan Times, January 4). As Gwadar has fallen on hard times, residents have blamed Beijing and Islamabad for ignoring them in their CPEC megaproject plans. The governments of both China and Pakistan claim that they are modernizing Gwadar by building a well-equipped hospital, parks, technical colleges, modern roads, an industrial park, and a seaport. For years, Chinese and Pakistani officials have claimed that this coastal backwater would soon compete with Dubai, Singapore, and Shenzhen to attract huge foreign investment. However, the currently poor state of Gwadar’s infrastructure underscores that this narrative remains illusory. The rain and flooding have wreaked havoc in Gwadar as it grapples with huge protests demanding better civic facilities and an end to economic injustices. Some have called the recent protests a struggle for civil rights, while others have labeled the movement — the “Baloch Spring” (Dawn, January 2). In December, the protests, which lasted for more than a month, became a heated topic of discussion on Pakistani social media. However, the protests attracted only modest international media attention, and were officially called off on December 16. While it is too early to determine the full impact of the protests, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan and the Chief Minister of Balochistan province have formed a committee to address protesters’ concerns.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Economy, and Investment
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Asia

472. China-Lithuania Tensions Boil Over Taiwan

Author:: William Yuen Yee
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: After Lithuania decided to open a Taiwanese Representative Office in July 2021, China responded with an all-out diplomatic and economic pressure campaign against the Baltic nation of 2.8 million people. The Chinese government expelled the Lithuanian ambassador, recalled its own ambassador from Vilnius in August, and downgraded Lithuania’s overall diplomatic status in China (Xinhua, August 10, 2021). In response, Lithuania announced a diplomatic boycott of the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics in protest of China’s human rights abuses, even before the United States, Australia, Canada, and Britain announced their own Olympic boycotts (LRT, December 2, 2021). “Anyone who would choose Lithuania as an enemy has also made an enemy of the United States of America,” former U.S. President George W. Bush told a crowd of thousands gathered in the capital city of Vilnius in 2002 (Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, November 25, 2002). Back then, Bush lauded Lithuania’s entry into NATO and pledged that its people would no longer stand alone against external aggression. Two decades later, rapidly intensifying tensions between Lithuania and China are putting Bush’s famous words to the test. As Lithuania looks to its democratic partners in the EU and U.S. for support amid a firestorm of Chinese sanctions, the response has been mixed and somewhat uncertain.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, Taiwan, Asia, and Lithuania

473. The U.S.-China Perception Gap: A Recipe for Disaster?

Author:: Harry He
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In December, a war of words raged across the Pacific over the very meaning of the word “democracy” (China Brief, December 14, 2021). The United States held its Summit for Democracy, inviting other democracies of various stripes, while China convened its own competing “Dialogue on Democracy,” calling out the U.S. for fomenting a cold war-style global geopolitical split (CGTN, December 2, 2021; U.S. Department of State). This discourse battle exemplifies a trend in Chinese views of the U.S. that has been gradually forming over the past 15 years. The 2008 global financial crisis, ill-fated American military campaigns, and mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic have led Chinese leaders to doubt U.S. power and capabilities. Yet, Washington has held on to the belief that it is capable of shaping China’s behaviors, either through inducement or deterrence. Even as the U.S. recognizes the limits of its influence and the recent relative decline in prestige, it still sees tremendous strengths in its military and economic prowess, alliance networks, democratic values, and soft power. The perception gap between China and the U.S. concerning American power is a potential recipe for disaster. While this does not imply that conflict is imminent or unavoidable, it does make miscalculations and miscommunications in the U.S.-China relationship both more likely and more dangerous.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Discourse, and Perception
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

474. A Bitter Winter: Omicron Tests the Limits of China’s Zero-COVID Approach

Author:: John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has sought to achieve a “zero-infection” (零感染,ling ganran) rate among its population. The Chinese government has pursued this objective through the “dynamic clearance” (动态清零, dongtai qing ling) policy, which is predicated on keeping China’s international borders largely closed, and rapidly detecting, isolating, and eliminating domestic outbreaks (People’s Daily, January 7). Dynamic clearance relies on digital monitoring, mass testing, and controlling population movement to achieve early detection and reduce of COVID-19 transmission. Responses to even single-digit case clusters include mandatory lockdowns, and centralized quarantines in government health centers for potentially infected or exposed groups (Xinhua, August 19, 2021).
Topic:: Crisis Management, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Zero-COVID
Political Geography:: China and Asia

475. Questioning Multilateralism: Conceptual Re-Evaluation and the Decline in the Western Multilateral Order

Author:: Tamer Kasikci
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternative Politics
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: he Western multilateral order (WMO), which was established under the leadership of the US after the Second World War, and remained unrivaled with the collapse of the USSR, has recently entered a multidimensional crisis process. This situation aggravates doubts about the future of the WMO and the development of alternative international order scenarios both in academic and political communities. This study aims to develop a theoretical conceptual basis for understanding the crisis in question. The study suggests that in order to understand the crisis in the WMO, it was necessary to focus on the concept of multilateralism that formed its basis. In this context, the study develops Ruggie's definition of multilateralism, arguing that the definition should be expanded, especially in the context of power relations, and that multilateralism should be evaluated as a combination of power, interest, and identity elements. The three-pillar multilateral model developed in the theoretical section is then applied to the case of the decline of the WMO. It is argued that the decline of the WMO rests upon the change in the distribution of power in the international system and the differentiation of both identities and interests of the members in the order.
Topic:: Multilateral Relations, Multilateralism, Social Order, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

476. The "European Refugee Crisis" As The Crisis of Liberal Tolerance: Three Modalities of Liberal Exclusion

Author:: Hande Sozer
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternative Politics
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: This article examines European residential responses to migrations after 2015. The literature meticulously analyzes their historically-contextually changing variances and inner diversities while imposing a binary view: the anti-immigration response is the negation, and the solidarity response is the affirmation of liberal tolerance. Contrarily, I argue that both responses utilize the liberal tolerance idea and its operational principles. First, they border the European Self and the migrant Other; re-border “the intolerable” and “the tolerable” migrant; and then exclude the former while only partially including the latter. Refugees’ inclusion and exclusion are seen either as a zero-sum (i.e., they are either included or excluded) or a dialectical state (i.e., the inclusion of some means the exclusion of others), but I claim that even the most inclusive responses are excluding the very subjects they claim to include. Inclusion is partial, while exclusion is constant. Thus, I discuss the migrants’ permanent yet differential exclusions in three modalities of liberal tolerance: Liberal intolerance, differentiating tolerance, and indifferent tolerance.
Topic:: Migration, Refugee Crisis, Discrimination, Liberal Order, and Identity
Political Geography:: Europe

477. Different Theoretical Perspectives to Secularization and the Impact of Migration on Future Religiosity of Europe

Author:: Tugba Gurcel Akdemir
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternative Politics
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: Secularization versus religious revival debate has been shifted to another dimension with the mass migration targeting Europe because of the conflicts in the Middle East. The literature concerning secularism was expecting a linear trend in line with the modernization and Europe was considered to be the nexus of both. This study delineates the secularization debate for evaluating the recent trend of migration within this rather neglected scope. The main argument is that among the secularization theories, religious market model and existential security paradigm have a greater explanatory power for the future state-religion relations in Europe. They indicate that as a result of migration, contrary to the expectation of classical secularism theories, the overall religiosity might increase in Europe due to the pluralization of the religious realm as well as the fact that Muslim migrants who are more religious also have higher fertility rate than Europeans. In that sense, Europe, which seemed to settle the dispute concerning religious realm for years now might be faced with a new challenge due to the migration phenomenon.
Topic:: Migration, Religion, Conflict, and Secularism
Political Geography:: Europe

478. Analysis of the Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts of the Coronavirus Crisis on International Climate Policyt

Author:: Zehra Askinsena Ilkilic and Manuel Andreas Knoll
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternative Politics
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic has caused far-reaching precautionary measures around the world. Governments’ attempts to get the coronavirus under control have led to the negligence of other important policy areas. Climate policy in particular has been significantly influenced and lost importance on the political agendas of states after the outbreak. Over time, the coronavirus will either disappear or lose its initial impact due to medical measures. Two years after the outbreak of the coronavirus, this paper aims to analyse and evaluate the short-term and long-term impacts of the coronavirus crisis on international climate policy. It is important to analyse how it has shaped international climate policy and what lessons can be learned for dealing with climate change. The analysis is based on the principles and regular functioning of the International Climate Change Regime.
Topic:: Climate Change, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

479. Child Maltreatment & Child Migration: Abuse Disclosures by Central American and Mexican Unaccompanied Migrant Children

Author:: Susan Schmit
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: While gang violence, community violence, and domestic violence have been recognized as contributing factors to Central American migration, less is known about the intersection between child maltreatment and migration. This article uses secondary data from United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees interviews with unaccompanied minors from Central America and Mexico to examine child maltreatment. It provides information on the abused children, their abusers, and the questions that led to their disclosure of maltreatment. It finds that girls reported maltreatment at higher rates than boys; only girls in this sample reported sexual abuse and intimate partner violence; and boys experienced physical abuse more than any other form of maltreatment. Overall, girls experienced all forms of abuse at higher rates than boys. Fewer than half of this sample described maltreatment as an explicit reason for migration, even those who viewed it as a type of suffering, harm, or danger. In addition, some disclosures suggest that childhood transitions, such as in housing, schooling, or work status, warrant further inquiry as a potential consequence of or contributor to maltreatment. The article recommends that professionals engaged with migrant children in social services, legal services, or migration protection and status adjudications should inquire about maltreatment, recognizing that children may reveal abuse in complex and indirect ways. Protection risks within the home or family environment may provide the grounds for US legal immigration protections, such as Special Immigrant Juvenile Status (SIJS) or asylum. Practitioners working with unaccompanied migrant children should use varied approaches to inquire about home country maltreatment experiences. Maltreatment may be part of the context of child migration, whether or not it is explicitly mentioned by children as a reason for migration.
Topic:: Migration, Children, Humanitarian Crisis, and Child Mortality
Political Geography:: Central America and North America

480. Education as an Opportunity for Integration: Assessing Colombia, Peru, and Chile's Educational Responses to the Venezuelan Migration Crisis

Author:: Katharine Summers, Jessica Crist, and Bernhard Streitwieser
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: With over 5 million Venezuelans fleeing their home country, Latin America is facing the largest migration crisis in its history. Colombia, Peru, and Chile host the largest numbers of Venezuelan migrants in the region. Each country has responded differently to the crisis in terms of the provision of education. Venezuelan migrants attempting to enter the primary, secondary, and higher education systems encounter a variety of barriers, from struggles with documentation to limited availability of spaces in schools to cultural barriers and xenophobia. This paper examines the distinct educational policy responses to Venezuelan migrants in Colombia, Peru, and Chile. It begins by contextualizing the current crisis through a sociopolitical and economic analysis of the origins of the Venezuelan migration phenomenon. Venezuelans are not officially and legally recognized as refugees by the UNHCR. Refugee status is considered on a case-by-case basis at the country level. The regional coordinating bodies tasked with promoting safe, orderly, and legal migration of Venezuelans to host countries have given uneven attention to education. This paper examines each country’s response to Venezuelan migrants from a human rights perspective. It provides sociopolitical context and discusses the specific educational offerings from the primary to tertiary levels in Colombia, Peru, and Chile. It considers alternative or flexible education models, second shift schools, access to school transportation and feeding programs, and teacher training opportunities that cater to the growing migrant population. It explores barriers to entry into the educational system, including documentation challenges due to legal and enrollment requirements, constraints on the host countries’ education systems, and discrimination due to lack of intercultural training and xenophobia. It also discusses challenges related to the quality of the educational opportunities for Venezuelan migrant children, and the specific needs of these children. This paper considers several ideas to protect Venezuelan migrants’ rights to an education and to strengthen their integration. Finally, it offers recommendations on sustainable education solutions for Venezuelan migrants at all levels in the three countries. These recommendations include improving information sharing, addressing structural bottlenecks to school enrollment, and expanding pathways (existing and complementary) to higher education.
Topic:: Education, Migration, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

481. 2020 American Community Survey: Use with Caution, An Analysis of the Undercount in the 2020 ACS Data Used to Derive Estimates of the Undocumented Population

Author:: Robert Warren
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: This paper analyzes and provides estimates of the undercount of the foreign-born in the US Census Bureau’s 2020 American Community Survey (ACS). It confirms that a differential undercount occurred in the 2020 ACS. In particular, noncitizens that arrived from Central American countries after 1981 had undercount rates of 15–25 percent, but undercount of noncitizens that arrived from European countries in the same period was not detectable by the methods described in this paper. The Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) and others use ACS data to derive annual estimates of the US undocumented population. The Census Bureau recently reported that the total population count for the 2020 Census was consistent with the count for recent censuses, despite the Covid-19 pandemic and the Trump administration’s interference in the 2020 Census. Nonetheless, the accuracy of 2020 ACS data for the noncitizen population that arrived after 1981 remains a major concern given the fear generated by the Trump administration’s abusive rhetoric and anti-immigrant policies. The estimates set forth in this paper were derived by analyzing trends in annual ACS data for 2016–2020 compiled from the IPUMS website (Ruggles et al. 2021). Decennial census data cannot be used for this purpose because data on country of birth, citizenship, and year of immigration are not collected in the census. However, it is reasonable to believe that the 2020 census and the 2020 ACS experienced similar challenges because they were conducted under comparable conditions. The patterns of undercount of noncitizens described here for the 2020 ACS are likely mirrored in the 2020 census and will reduce federal funding and representation to affected cities and states for the next decade.
Topic:: Migration, Border Control, Survey, and Undocumented Population
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

482. Examining the Impact of Community Sponsorship on Early Refugee Labor Market Outcomes in the United States

Author:: Emily Crane Linn
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: As the number of refugees in need of resettlement continues to climb worldwide, advocates and policy makers are searching for ways to leverage new support from private individuals, faith groups, and community organizations to complement and extend the capacity of traditional government resettlement programs. The United States is one of many countries considering the possibility of a “private sponsorship” model, which would allow private individuals and community groups to resettle refugees independent of traditional government resettlement agencies. While this particular resettlement model has not been implemented in the United States in more than four decades, the country has a long history of community involvement in refugee resettlement. Many resettlement agencies operate vibrant community sponsorship (or co-sponsorship) programs, in which community groups partner with resettlement agencies in delivering services and material support to refugees. However, due to a lack of publicly available data, the impact of this co-sponsorship model has been woefully understudied.
Topic:: Refugees, Labor Policies, Local, and Community
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

483. Migrating through the Corridor of Death: The Making of a Complex Humanitarian Crisis

Author:: Priscilla Solano and Douglas S. Massey
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Drawing on the concept of a “complex humanitarian crisis,” this paper describes how outflows of migrants from Central America were transformed into such a crisis by intransigent immigration and border policies enacted in both Mexico and the United States. We describe the origins of the migration in U.S. Cold War interventions that created many thousands of displaced people fleeing violence and economic degradation in the region, leading to a sustained process of undocumented migration to the United States. Owing to rising levels of gang violence and weather events associated with climate change, the number of people seeking to escape threats in Central America has multiplied and unauthorized migration through Mexico toward the United States has increased. However, the securitization of migration in both Mexico and the United States has blocked these migrants from exercising their right to petition for asylum, creating a growing backlog of migrants who are subject to human rights violations and predations both by criminals and government authorities, leading migrants to label Mexican routes northward as a “corridor of death.” We draw on data from annual reports of Mexico’s Red de Documentación de las Organizaciones Defensoras de Migrantes (Network for the Documentation of Migrant Defense Organizations) to construct a statistical profile of transit migrants and the threats they face as reported by humanitarian actors in Mexico. These reports allow us to better understand the practical realities of the “complex humanitarian crisis” facing undocumented migrants, both as unauthorized border crossers and as transit migrants moving between the southern frontiers of Mexico and the United States.
Topic:: Migration, Border Control, Humanitarian Crisis, and Migrants
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, and United States of America

484. A Greener Pathway Ahead: Harnessing the Power of Collaboration and Conflict to Tackle Climate Change in Pakistan and India

Author:: Jalal Ud Din Kakar
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The main environmental problem of the twenty-first century is climate change, which has received a lot of attention and discussion at global level. It is expected to have an adverse, permanent effect on the planet and its environment. South Asia will be among the nation’s most badly impacted by climate change, which will predominantly affect the Global South. Due to climate change, 62 million South Asians are anticipated to relocate by the year 2050. South Asia has 1.891 billion people, or almost one-fourth of the world's population. Because of this, we have the desire to comprehend the Pakistan and India policies and to identify any opportunities for climatic cooperation between Pakistan and India, which are currently hampered by a variety of ambiguous circumstances.
Topic:: Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, Sustainability, and Data
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and India

485. ‘Climate Change and Political Letdown: Understanding Environmental Degradation through the Prisoner’s Dilemma.’

Author:: Dayyab Gillani
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This paper attempts to analyze the political uncertainty surrounding environmental degradation by means of utilizing the game theoretical model. It challenges the popular opinion that views the political exchanges over climate change as a super game where players will eventually learn to cooperate through repeated interactions. Instead the paper argues that the climate change problem is essentially a case of ‘one-shot prisoner’s dilemma’ irrespective of the number of times the players interact with one another. To demonstrate the one-shot prisoner’s dilemma at play, it employs the comparative method to explain the climate politics between the major polluters of the world (US, China, Brazil and India). The debate is analyzed at two distinct levels: Intergenerational and Intragenerational level. Lastly, the paper notes the significance of ‘the immediate threat factor’, which it argues poses a fundamental challenge to the political resolution of the climate change problem.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Politics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

486. Strategic Triangle in the Indo-Pacific Region through Competition, Cooperation and Containment: Future of Maritime Power Posturing

Author:: Muhammad Sharreh Qazi
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Within bounds of the Regional Security Complex, this article assesses key developments in the Indian Ocean and fallout of strategic interests from the Pacific Ocean in maritime convergence. The article argues that maritime interests in the Indian and Pacific Ocean are witnessing convergence as states form coalitions and strategic partnerships to create a balance between USA and China. Strategic choices between principal and peripheral actors is structured in a mix of containment, competition and cooperation. China and its strategic partners understand the momentum of impact if American interests in the Pacific Ocean are merged with its interests in the Indian Ocean. The article argues that China would be opting to go for cooperation strategy as a means to broaden its reach and entangle oncoming contenders. America, on the other hand, is opting to amalgamate both competition and containment in a worst case scenario situation to prevent China from creating an overwatch against global maritime activity. The paper finds that an escalatory environment with spiraling tendencies is forming in and around the Indo-Pacific and its fallout will likely be seen in assessment of magnitude of contending parties. It finds that despite understanding maritime worth of the Indo-Pacific connect, principal and peripheral partners to these strategies might be willing to transform maritime politics to strategic entanglement.
Topic:: Politics, Maritime, Regional Security, and Strategic Entanglement
Political Geography:: Indo-Pacific

487. Operation Neptune Spear and the Manhunt (Implications for Pakistan United States Counter Terrorism Synergism 2001-2020)

Author:: Muhammad Iqbal Roy, Abubaqar Khalid, Abdul Rehman, and Farhan Khalid
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The qualitative, descriptive & analytical study emphasis on the US military operation against Osama Bin laden the founder of Al-Qaeda, who was killed on May 1, 2011 in Bilal town compound Abbottabad Pakistan, which was purchased by Abu Ahmad Al-Kuwaiti of $50,000 during 2004-5. The former US president Bill Clinton had announced to arrest Bin Laden either live or dead in 1992. Clinton claimed that “the historic record of America does not confirm that it had even left off its foes. How the US administration stipulated a sum of $ 250 million for various military & intelligence operations to persuade Osama Bin Laden since the US started war on terror against Al-Qaida & its associates as the major culprits of the devastating events of 9/11? The Clinton’s proclamation of killing Osama Bin Laden was practically executed during Obama’s regime on May 1, 2011.The US intelligence & security agencies used Black Hawks, Navy Seals including 79 Commandos and a dog called Cairo. The Operation Neptune Spear imprinted multi-faceted implications on Pakistan’s Socio-Political and economic environment and put its credibility at the stake of trust deficit in the context of Pakistan-United States working relationship fighting against terrorism during 2001-2020. The study examines how Pakistan had to face a severe internal and external criticism and cost along with a serious retaliation of the terrorist activities i.e. suicidal attacks in the post Abbottabad operation scenario?
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), DNA, and Osama bin Laden
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and United States of America

488. Linking Foreign Policy and Energy Security: Iran-Pakistan gas Pipeline

Author:: Bibi Saira and Aisha Javed
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Energy in the context of foreign policy has become a major political concern for the stability of the country. Pakistan’s energy and foreign policy experts paid less attention to strengthening its relationship on the basis of energy with the energyrich countries. Despite its geographical significance as a potential energy corridor between the Middle East and Central Asia, Pakistan’s energy sector fails to secure its energy needs. This research study focuses on energy dynamics in the foreign policy of Pakistan and regional energy projects like the IP gas Pipeline, have been studied in detail. The study found that Pakistan is left with no other option but to execute regional energy projects if the country needs to overcome the energy crisis. The study also found that the major obstacles to executing these projects in Pakistan are a lack of financial resources, lack of investments, international pressure, the country’s internal issues, regional issues and the changing regional situation. This study is proposed to be useful for policymakers to evaluate the impact of energy import dependency and to formulate foreign policy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Pipeline, Energy Crisis, and Energy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Iran, South Asia, and Middle East

489. The Role of America in Crises Management: A Study of India- Pakistan Crises (2001-2019)

Author:: Salma Naz
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The enduring antagonism between Pakistan and India enlarged by thoughts of threat perception has spawned recurring crises. Because of the presence of misperceptions as well as miscalculations the possibility of an accidental clash between both nuclear powers was high. So, through the crisis management technique possible armed collision is controlled. The primary purpose of the study is to analyze the American mediation in the India-Pakistan crises. The nature of the study is qualitative because qualitative research supports explaining comprehensively and helps interpretive objectives to understand the role of America in the India-Pakistan crises. The case study method is applied for the present study and the selected era is from 2001 to 2019. Being a review study descriptive, exploratory and historical approaches are applied to discover the answers of the research questions. This research would offer a guiding structure for studying third-party mediation in the management of the crisis. Consequently, an analysis of this research will support to discover several potential finding of the American involvement in crisis management to keep strategic stability and peace in the South Asian region. But, there is no assurance that the findings and conclusions of this crisis management case study are applied to other contexts or crises.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Crisis Management, Mediation, and Perception
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, and United States of America

490. Pandemic Politics Through Social Media: A Study of India

Author:: Aijaz Ahmad Mir
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This paper discusses the use of social media by the ruling party BJP and its opposition, especially Congress, during the pandemic in India. The party at the centre has used social media, especially for two reasons; firstly, the BJP leveraged social media to promote the image of India as a “responsible sovereign” at the global level during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Indian government, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, has exported drugs and medicines to different countries during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The party has extensively used social media platforms, especially Twitter, to engage with global leaders during the pandemic. Secondly, the party and its right-wing supporters have used social media to highlight the achievements of Modi’s government at the domestic level. The ruling party has used a “free vaccination campaign” for its political gains, and Narendra Modi was portrayed as the “savior” of the Indian people during the pandemic. The BJP and its supporters have also employed social media to target Muslim minorities during the pandemic. This paper also discusses the opposition parties' use of social media, especially Congress, during the pandemic phase in India. The opposition parties have mainly used social media to target and expose the weaknesses of Modi’s government in handling the pandemic in India. This paper analyses the different themes, such as the ruling party’s use of social media to promote its image both at the global and at domestic level, targeting of Muslims for spreading coronavirus, role of opposition parties, internal disputes, international status-seeking, and vaccine diplomacy. To fulfill the requirements of this study, both primary and secondary data collection methods were used.
Topic:: Terrorism, Natural Resources, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Xinjiang

491. An Econometric Approach on Money Laundering and Its Impact on Economic Growth (A Study of Pakistan)

Author:: Arfa Batool, Qamar Afaq Qureshi, and Shumaila Hashim
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Money laundering is not the issue of today, as it is coming from the early days in many ways and the evil to society as it effects not only those peoples which are related to this evil as well as it also hits the noble peoples of the society by not paying the legal levies that increases the prices of products in the market. Research is carried out to check the impact of money laundering on the economy of Pakistan in an econometric way along with the other control variables (inflation, unemployment, remittances, number of crimes, total investment, and corruption). Money laundering is measured with informal economy and economic growth is measured with GDP. Annual data from 2000 to 2019 is employed for the purpose of analysis and suitable statistical tools are applied to derive the results. Through these test short run and long run effects are derived also. For analysis of the data, secondary data of two recent decades are used which is collected from the different sources i.e. economic surveys, published papers, and World Bank database etc. At the end it is concluded that money laundering has negative effect on the economy of Pakistan along with other variables.
Topic:: Corruption, Economic Growth, Financial Crimes, Inflation, Unemployment, Remittances, and Money Laundering
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

492. Sexual Harassment at Workplaces: Problems and Solutions in a case study of Lahore

Author:: Rana Tahir Rehman Khan and Saqib Khan Warraich
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This research aims to investigate harassment faced by women at workplaces. The research methodology used for this study is qualitative, and semi-structured interviews have been conducted to collect primary data. A population size of onehundred working women at public and private institutions of Lahore has been taken. Twenty working women were interviewed and themes and sub-themes were derived from the collected data. The results revealed that harassment commonly occurs in workplaces. It includes abuse, non-consensual physical contact, threats, homophobic comments, ogling, and attempts at seduction, gender-based harassment, sexual coercion, and sexual imposition. It not only impacts the psychological condition of working women but also impacts their productivity. Those women who are the only breadwinners of their families are unwilling to take any action against the culprits so as not to lose their jobs; as a result, perpetrators exploit them. Most respondents contacted were aware of women's rights, but not familiar with the Protection against Harassment of Women at Workplace Act, 2010. The study identified several issues related to harassment and recommended significant initiatives to train women against harassment.
Topic:: Women, Sexual Violence, Work Culture, and Harassment
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

493. Nation-Building Process of Pakistan: Traditional and Non-Traditional Challenges

Author:: A. Z. Hilali
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: “Nation-building or State-building” has been a 20th century highly complex and controversial concept which taking again center-stage in the post-Cold War era. The idea has generated much heated debate in the world as well as in the academic circles. The notion is a process of constructing or structuring a unification of the people within the state through the state power which can be politically and economically stable and viable in the long run. In the past „nation-building‟ or „state-building‟ approach emphasizes on cultural identity for the newly established „nation-states‟ which lead to self-determination. However, in the contemporary modern world, it is process whereby a diverse society with different languages, cultures and religions come together within the boundaries of a sovereign state with a unified constitutional and legal dispensation. In this regard, Pakistan is multi-ethnic, multi-cultural and multi-religious state where people have less amount of commonality of interests, goals and preferences. It is extremely unlikely that different linguistic communities will agree on the definition of „nation‟. Its complexity and fragility is the product of deep rooted political and economic factors which are the main threats to its domestic security and stability. It is also fact that religion and external threats are no more viable reason for the state and regime survival. So, the guardians of the state remain failed to succeed in „nationbuilding‟ process which is still the biggest challenge to the country‟s solidarity. Modern scholars have views that nation-building cannot complete without economic development, modernization and democratization. Thus, the state is the political regime that operates within an existing nation or nations. It is the role of the state to bring together disparate national communities into a stable political regime. Nonetheless, the model of democratization, expansion of federal structure, economic growth and stable political institutions recognize as the formula of success and this is the only way of nation-building or national integration.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, Ethnicity, Language, Economic Development, and Nation Building
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

494. US-Shaped World Order and Pakistan: Past, Present and Future

Author:: Syed Mohammed Ali and Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This research paper critically analyses Pakistan‟s crucial and costly relationship with the United States of America, during the three eras of bipolar, unipolar and emerging multi-polar world order. It also contemplates that a new and balanced relationship, anchored in shared bilateral economic, political and security interests built simultaneously with the status quo, emerging and resurgent great powers is more beneficial and less risky for Pakistan in future than band wagoning with a single great power or offering its total security commitment against any other great power. Total alignment with a great power not only earns the threat of other great powers but also makes Pakistan more vulnerable against economic coercion in an interdependent global economy. It also argues that Thucydides‟ Trap is not a manifest destiny and can be avoided with astute statecraft rather than provocative and dangerous risk taking strategic competition.
Topic:: Power Politics, International System, Coercion, and Cooptation
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, South Asia, India, and United States of America

495. Critical Event Analysis to Terrorism in an Emerging Economy of Pakistan

Author:: Shumaila Umer, Kausar Yasmeen, and Kashifa Yasmeen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The widespread suffering caused by terrorism has been discussed at length in the media. Unfortunately, there is a relative paucity of empirical research on the nature and causes of terrorism. The present study examines the issue of terrorism quite modestly, but nonetheless significantly. It finds the root cause that generates numerous other causes which increase the incidence of terrorism. This study is unique in terms of its step-by-step implementation of analysis. In the first phase, the study applies thematic analysis and reveals the general causes of terrorism. In the second phase scrutiny of general causes is done to find the root cause of terrorism and finally, multinomial logistic regression is applied to ensure consistency between the results. Multinomial logistic regression reveals that coefficients of all interaction terms are significant, indicating that the effect of religion, geographic location, international players, and communications technology on terrorism depends on legislation and its strategic implementation. Like Ukraine, Pakistan is geographically significant for international players with respect to the containment of China and trade. Weak legislation in Pakistan facilitates international players not only to change the regime of the country but also to create terror groups that misuse religious schools. This study suggests that legislation must be implemented gradually through strategies; otherwise, policy implementation may have an adverse impact. Legislation helps to protect a country from terrorism in two ways. Firstly, it reduces the likelihood of terrorism entering, and secondly, it helps to combat existing terrorism. Based on the findings, this study also recommends counterterrorism, security officials have to work covertly in the media and other sectors which can impact the severity of terrorism in the country; this entails adopting mimicking factors. We expect that the present study will contribute to social and political improvements and have beneficial effects on the economy.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Economy, and Legislation
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

496. A Narrative of Debt Trap Vs Connectivity under CPEC: A Case of Gwadar Port

Author:: Rizwan Naseer, Qiubin Wang, and Ahmad Ali
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Gwadar has been an underdeveloped city in Baluchistan but CPEC has addressed problems of education, health and electricity for local populace. The vision to convert Gwadar into a hub of trade is reaping benefits for Pakistan. China‟s investment and loans in Gwadar under the CPEC are termed as Debt Trap by the India and U.S. media outlets. Majority of the Western media, academia and policy making circles deliberately established the narrative of Debt Trap Diplomacy (DTD). Gwadar port is likely to unlock potential of connectivity with regional trade partners in West Asia-Central Asia and South Asia. This project is a win-win situation for China and Pakistan. China‟s investment in Gwadar port will improve Pakistan‟s economy, uplift Baluchistan‟s living standards by offering attractive opportunity to potential investors in Gwadar‟s free zone. China‟s investment in Gwadar is promising to bring real change in Gwadar and Pakistan in particular. Due to massive propaganda against Gwadar, desired results have not been achieved yet. This paper is based on primary as well as secondary data. Primary data has been collected from Planning Commission of Pakistan on the condition of anonymity. The main argument of the paper is that the narrative of debt trap diplomacy is false. Connectivity of Gwadar with regional countries will be a game changer in the region.
Topic:: Debt, Foreign Direct Investment, and Prosperity
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

497. Impact of CPEC on Pakistan’s Economic Outlook

Author:: Sajid Mehmood Shahzad
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Pakistan‟s vital geopolitical position is an advantage for this South Asian nation. It is located at the apex of the Arabian Peninsula. Thus, the People‟s Republic of China has setup the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with a futuristic strategy to gain long-term benefits. This planning is not random at all. It is a cohesive plan to revitalize the financial system of its long-standing collaborator and ally through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which is currently the talk of the town. The present study analyzes how Pakistan‟s conventional economic outlook can be transformed through the CPEC. While harnessing the power of Pakistan as a „trade route‟, the CPEC has the potential to reshape transport & security options, increase the cost-effectiveness of goods, and widen the scope for new and existing businesses. it will develop a networking coherence among agricultural & industrial hubs and connect special economic zones (SEZs) with the rest of the country and beyond. This paper evaluates the CPEC‟s fiscal footprint on Pakistan‟s economy and examines the correlation between overcoming economic shortcomings and increasing future gains through a cause-and-effect relationship.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Asia

498. National Security: An Exception of Freedom of Speech

Author:: Aman Ullah and Akram Badshah
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The real autonomy would not be possible if people were not capable to express their thoughts, compose their opinions, or linked with those who might discuss their feelings and thoughts. It is also an essential right in a free society to be liberally allowed to participate in the welfare of society. The equilibrium should be maintained by imposing realistic restrictions which may be levied under the law when the right to Freedom of Speech comes in clash with rights of other individuals which can help the democratic state to preserve the basic right of Freedom of Speech at an admissible level. The basic purpose of this article is to explore the scope and extent of “protection of national security” an exception of Freedom of Speech in the light of national and international instruments.
Topic:: Human Rights, National Security, Freedom of Expression, Free Speech, and Debates
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

499. Pak-China Geostrategic Interdependence: Impact on Rising Economies of Asia

Author:: Ameena Nasim
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China and Pakistan have enjoyed a close and mutually beneficial relationship during the last seven decades. Both the nations‘ leadership pronounced the bilateral relationship between China and Pakistan as the ―All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership‖ and ―Iron Brother.‖ The strategic partnership between China and Pakistan has a significant impact on the Asian strategic environment in particular and global politics. The Indian strategic enclave regards China-Pakistan‘s multifaceted relationship as a substantial obstacle for India‘s rise as a Great Power within the regional context. The study‘s primary objective is to critically examine impact on Asia‘s main actors such as India and Russia. So that one can profess about the dynamics of this relationship and implications of China and Pakistan‘s geo-strategic relations on the rising economies. A qualitative study with qualitative interviews and thematic analysis was applied to conduct this study. The analysis reveals that South Asian RSC has no change in the patterns of amity and enmity. The region continues to be conflictive, where their enduring rivalry and continued distrust shape enmity patterns between Pakistan and India. On the contrary, Pakistan and China‘s amity patterns can be seen growing in the longstanding strategic relationship and deep-rooted cooperation. The investigation discovers that on a bilateral level, several new factors in the post-9/11 era have molded Pakistan-China Strategic relations, which have intricate linkages with the regional and global security complexion.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Interests, Interdependence, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, China, South Asia, and Asia

500. Affinity Networks and Hereditary Succession in the Political Parties and its Impact on the Federation of Pakistan

Author:: Sarfraz Batool and Marium Kamal
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The political system of Pakistan rests on the principle of federation: powers of decisionmaking are constitutionally divided between parliament and the provincial governments. The constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan 1973 emphasizes party-based democracy. It demands the practice of democracy within the political parties to promote democratic norms in political culture and to create a conducive political environment to strengthen the federal system in Pakistan. The second important principle of federation is unity in diversity. A political party in a federation is considered as a bridge between the federal government and its federating units having its roots in the general masses across the federating units. It helps the federating units to have a forum to identify, express, and articulate their interests. But the element of hereditary succession and the presence of affinity networks within political parties is weakening the democratic spirit of the federal Constitution of Pakistan. In major political parties, the only merit to elevate to the highest rank in the party is to be the next heir or to be the close relative of the party leader. The culture of hereditary leadership promotes the norms of kinship politics and nepotism where political decisions are made to protect the vested interests of kinship groups at the cost of the more extensive interests of the federation. This paper is based on three sections; the first section deals with the phenomena of hereditary politics in general; the second section deals with the importance of political parties in a federal system and; the third section of the study deals with hereditary succession and affinity networks in political parties in Pakistan and their impact on the federal system. The study used the desk research method to analyze the data under the qualitative approach. Primary and secondary sources are used to collect the data, however, primary data is collected from various internet sources like official websites of FAFEN, ECP, and Dunya news, etc.
Topic:: Politics, Social Networks, Federation, and Kinship
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

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