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41. Free and Open Spaces: Small and Medium-Sized Nations Can Reshape the Modern World

Author:
James Jay Carafano and Márton Ugrósdy
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
What if most people are wrong about the future? The presumption—the conventional view, both in the policymaking world and in academia—is that great powers have the greatest influence in shaping geopolitics. There is also a presumption that great power competition will inevitably lead to dividing the world into hard spheres of influence, and that there will be an inevitable competition over dominating the “commons,” the routes of air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace that unite the world. We think all these assumptions are wrong. We think there is evidence to the contrary. Indeed, when great powers compete most, this often creates more space for other states to exercise influence. We argue that the countries spanning the traditional pathways of the Silk Road region from Europe and Türkiye to the Caucasus and Central Asia have that power in their hands, if, that is, they are wise in how they wield it. This essay will outline, in broad strokes, the genesis of our argument.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Small States
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. Carbons of War: The Environmental Impact of Military Activity in Conflict and Peace

Author:
Jahangir E. Arasli
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Climate change is the supreme challenge of our times, poised for human civilization. Its facets are diverse: the rise of temperatures, trending natural disasters and enduring weather extremes, droughts and floods, fluctuations of the sea level and hydrographic regimes, distressed ecosystem balances, and other aberrations. Climate change affects human health and demography, increases food and water insecurity, accelerates environmental degradation (such as deterioration of arable and grazing lands, deforestation, or desertification), shrinks biodiversity, and produces other similar effects. Climate change escalates competition for dwindling resources and, subsequently, generates frictions and tensions between states and within individual groups of populations, thus forming a stage for geopolitical and geoeconomic rivalry as well as potential violent conflicts and wars. The snowballing impact of climate change on a global scale steadily approaches the point of irreversibility. The grim irony is that climate change, in many ways, represents a result of different forms of anthropogenic activity, including increased carbon emissions. Although the climatic transformation is already acknowledged as the ultimate challenge of global magnitude, one particular aspect remains often overlooked. Warfare is one of the countless varieties of human performance. Wars and armed conflicts naturally yield an enormous impact on the anthroposphere and habitat. Beyond that, the existing military forces and their routine activities unwillingly affect the environment even in peacetime. Therefore, this essay examines different patterns related to the damaging impact of wars and military activities on the climate and the environment, with a particular focus on carbon emissions. Furthermore, it addresses the subject of climate changedriven conflicts and evaluates measures taken at the international and national level to mitigate the effects projected by military forces on the environment. The overall objective of this paper is to provide analytical support in the course of preparations for the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Conflict, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

43. The Battle for Green Supremacy: Carbon Markets, Artificial Intelligence, and the Problem of Climate Finance

Author:
Carlos Roa and Shubham Dwivedi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Observe the bee as it pollinates flowers, fruits, vegetables, and a wide variety of other crops; according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, around one-third of the world’s food production depends on their little wings. Watch as the beaver builds its dam, shaping the landscape of its local environment. Its pond stores carbon, improves water quality, creates a suitable habitat to support biodiversity, and helps reduce climate impacts. One cannot help but conclude that some higher order guides the work of these and other creatures; someone or something seems to be managing the delicate ecology of our world. Unfortunately, human beings are not as adept at such complex environmental management. As the world increasingly bears witness to the dramatic effects of climate change, the urgency for decisive action has never been more critical. With the planet’s average temperature continuing to rise, resulting in more frequent, severe, and unusual weather events, the global community faces a stark reminder of the imperative to mitigate this environmental degradation. The upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Baku (COP29) represents a pivotal moment for states to commit to ambitious strategies and deepen international collaboration in the fight against climate change. At the forefront is the pressing need to explore and affordably implement effective mechanisms that can significantly reduce carbon emissions on a global scale.
Topic:
Markets, Climate Finance, Artificial Intelligence, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

44. The Genius Legacy of Ibn Sina and Biruni: The Contemporary Fruits of a Two-Man Renaissance

Author:
S. Frederick Starr
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Two of the most outstanding thinkers to have lived between ancient Greece and the European Renaissance are Ibn Sina (Avicenna) and Biruni. Both were born in the tenth century within the borders of what is now Uzbekistan and spent the entirety of their lives there and surrounding areas (today’s Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan). Neither ever set foot in Greece, Rome, or even Baghdad. Neither Ibn Sina nor Biruni were Arabs; both were Central Asians of Persianate stock. This meant that their native languages were part of the diverse group of languages that dominated Central Asia, Afghanistan, and what is now Iran. Both became known by their Arabic names because they wrote mainly in Arabic, the language of learning in the Muslim world, just as Latin was in the West. Lastly, both were larger-than-life figures who embodied the highest achievements of a moment when Central Asia and the Middle East were the global epicenter of intellectual achievement—what some have called the Muslim Renaissance.
Topic:
History, Ibn Sina (Avicenna), and Biruni
Political Geography:
Central Asia

45. War, Peace, and Law

Author:
Miguel Ayuso
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
We are going to deal with peace in relation to law in the broad context of the Western philosophic tradition, presented in these pages through a traditional Catholic prism rooted in what one can characterize as Thomistic realism. Naturally, when defining peace, war appears by comparison or opposition. And, naturally, it is therefore also necessary to deal with war in some detail in order to contribute to a better definition of peace. First of all, some doubt arises about this relationship. For if peace is—in St. Augustine’s definition—the tranquillity of order, it is not only the absence of war, but something positive: order, hierarchy, harmony, etc. But if, on the other hand, it is the neutralization of conflict, as Italian academician Danilo Castellano says, that war must somehow make its presence felt again, even if its disappearance is postulated. We shall deal briefly with both in what follows, concluding with a reminder of “just war” and a conclusion on “just peace."
Topic:
War, Law, Philosophy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

46. Armenia’s Critical Economic Reliance on Russia: Can the West Eliminate It?

Author:
Orkhan Baghirov
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Lately one of the most discussed political issues related to the South Caucasus region is Armenia’s attempt to incline towards the West by trying to move away from Russia’s sphere of influence. This has been manifested both geopolitically and geoeconomically. However, Armenia’s potential strategic shift away from its centuries-old political alignment with Russia raises questions about the future of the overall relationship between the two countries. A key concern revolves around the challenges Armenia may face due to its significant economic dependence on Russia. For such a shift to occur successfully, Armenia would have to not only strengthen its political and security ties with the West, but also develop the ability to replace Russia with Western partners in key economic sectors. Thus, the primary objective of the essay is to assess the degree to which Armenia could economically substitute Russia with the West, determining the feasibility of this transition. To achieve this, we should identify the critical level of Armenia’s reliance on Russia across diverse economic sectors and assess the extent to which the West can mitigate this dependency in anything resembling a realistic timeframe, without, that is, critically endangering Armenia’s economic wellbeing.
Topic:
Economics, Geopolitics, Trade, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, and South Caucasus

47. Revitalizing the 3+3 Platform: A Formula for a New Regional Security Order?

Author:
Vasif Huseynov
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
On 23 October 2023, the second meeting of the 3+3 Consultative Regional Platform took place in Tehran, Iran. This platform is built upon the idea of bringing together Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia ‘plus’ Iran, Russia, and Türkiye for regional cooperation had been introduced by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Türkiye after the Second Karabakh War. Georgia, owing to its ongoing territorial conflict with Russia, refused to participate in the platform, though its leaders signaled that they might reconsider this position in the future. The initiative, even in the 2+3 format (i.e., without Georgia), has faced several challenges, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and Iran’s mercurial policies in the region. The first meeting within this initiative (without Georgia’s participation) was held in Moscow on 10 December 2021 at the level of deputy foreign ministers. At that inaugural meeting, each side expressed optimism regarding the future of this framework. However, this optimism did not materialize for a long time. While Moscow and Tehran remained supportive of the 3+3 initiative, it mostly lost its relevance and importance for the other actors, including Azerbaijan. Despite repeated announcements by Russian and Iranian officials regarding preparations for the second meeting in this format, it took nearly two years for the meeting to actually occur. According to Russia’s leadership, the West was undermining this initiative
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Politics, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Caucasus

48. Time to Dream? Toward a ‘Shared Future’ Perspective for the South Caucasus

Author:
Alpaslan Özerdem
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The South Caucasus—a region at the intersection of Europe and Asia and a constituent part of what the editors of Baku Dialogues call the Silk Road region—is rich in history and cultural diversity, yet marked by complex geopolitical challenges. Comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, this region is not only a mosaic of cultures and languages but also a nexus of strategic interests for global powers. The intricate landscape of the South Caucasus is defined by its history of territorial disputes, ethnic tensions, and the influence of neighboring powers, notably Russia, Türkiye, and Iran. These factors and the region’s significant energy resources have made it a focal point of international diplomacy and regional power struggles. The present-day dynamics in the South Caucasus are shaped by the legacies of the Soviet era and more recent territorial disputes, notably the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (and surrounding areas) and the conflict between Georgia and Russia over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As these states navigate their post-Soviet identities and relationships, the potential for a cooperative, shared future presents itself as both a monumental challenge and a transformative opportunity. This article explores the prospects for peace, cooperation, and regional integration in the South Caucasus, delving into the complex interplay of historical legacies, current tensions, and future possibilities for a region at a crossroads. Geography is one of the critical features of nations and states for their peace, prosperity, and culture. However, geography is not the only determinant that dictates how countries live in peace and security. Climate, landscape, and natural resources are essential, but also political factors such as governance, corruption, trade laws, and political stability. Being landlocked does not mean a country cannot build a strong economy and trade with the rest of the world. There are many examples of countries in challenging geographies that have still developed strong economies with high levels of human development. The Netherlands is a small country, where around 20 percent of its current land has been reclaimed from the sea or lakes, but it is one of the world’s largest exporters of agricultural products. Costa Rica is surrounded by countries torn apart by armed conflict, but it does not even have an army. Similarly, although history is a critical defining factor in forming political, social, and economic relations, it does not need to dictate whether nations live in peace or conflict with each other in the same geographical regions. The legacy of the past can be transformed to generate new ideas and opportunities for living in peace in the future. There are many examples of regions where countries experienced historical enmities but built new types of relations to live side by side and prosper together. They even managed to form alliances and economic cooperation organizations, such as the European Union.
Topic:
International Cooperation, History, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Geography, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
South Caucasus

49. What Is Public Diplomacy? Fostering Cooperation, Countering Disinformation

Author:
Alan K. Henrikson
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Among the various kinds of diplomacy, one of the newest to be designated with a distinct name is “public diplomacy.” This is a supportive function, for like an actor in the theatre, the public diplomat plays a part. It may be a significant part, but rarely if ever is it the ‘lead.’ Public diplomacy assists leaders and senior officials of governments and of international organizations by presenting and explaining their policies and, more broadly, managing the communications aspects of their strategies. Public diplomacy work—the role of which is mainly informational—nowadays has included cultural interaction and educational exchange as well. For some countries, those functions have been handled somewhat separately, even at arm’s length, from political representation and policy promotion (e.g., the British Council, Alliance Française, Goethe Institut, Instituto Cervantes, and Confucius Institute). Public diplomacy is not, I wish to emphasize, merely instrumental—a means to any end. It is a purposeful activity, with qualities that are inherent, the aims of which are not arbitrarily chosen. Public diplomacy is a purposeful activity, with qualities that are inherent, the aims of which are not arbitrarily chosen. There are objective standards in the world, including those of natural science and scholarly knowledge, to which it may owe its convincingness. Because public diplomacy operates in the judgmental realm of popular opinion, which in the globalized world of today is more and more universal in scope, it must, in order to be effective, appeal to the reason, tastes, values, and aspirations of peoples of different traditions in distant s o c i e t i e s — o v e r whom no formal or direct political authority is held or control exercised. Its objectives must be achieved noncoercively and for the most part openly, through public media and transparent private communication. It works primarily through persuasion and attraction, rather than by command, employment of force, or subterfuge. That is not to deny that manipulation can occur, as with military “information operations.” Insofar as public diplomacy succeeds in assisting a government or an organization to achieve its purposes, it is, despite its noncoerciveness, powerful. Influence over minds, from the level of the individual to that of society, is an ultimate arbiter. “Public opinion,” as Napoleon Bonaparte famously advised, “is the thermometer a monarch should constantly consult.” Today’s leaders, irrespective of the type of regime or political form in which they operate, can rise or fall according to it
Topic:
International Cooperation, Disinformation, and Public Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

50. Karabakh and Azerbaijani Statecraf

Author:
Michael M. Gunter
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
This brief article seeks to make two important and related points. The first is that the international law principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity hold that Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan, despite misleading arguments to the contrary about supposed Armenian rights of self-determination. The second provides a partial assessment of Heydar Aliyev’s legacy and how it relates to some of the policies pursued by his successor, Ilham Aliyev. Each will be examined in turn.
Topic:
International Law, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, and Self-Determination
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh