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41. Armenia’s Critical Economic Reliance on Russia: Can the West Eliminate It?

Author:
Orkhan Baghirov
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Lately one of the most discussed political issues related to the South Caucasus region is Armenia’s attempt to incline towards the West by trying to move away from Russia’s sphere of influence. This has been manifested both geopolitically and geoeconomically. However, Armenia’s potential strategic shift away from its centuries-old political alignment with Russia raises questions about the future of the overall relationship between the two countries. A key concern revolves around the challenges Armenia may face due to its significant economic dependence on Russia. For such a shift to occur successfully, Armenia would have to not only strengthen its political and security ties with the West, but also develop the ability to replace Russia with Western partners in key economic sectors. Thus, the primary objective of the essay is to assess the degree to which Armenia could economically substitute Russia with the West, determining the feasibility of this transition. To achieve this, we should identify the critical level of Armenia’s reliance on Russia across diverse economic sectors and assess the extent to which the West can mitigate this dependency in anything resembling a realistic timeframe, without, that is, critically endangering Armenia’s economic wellbeing.
Topic:
Economics, Geopolitics, Trade, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, and South Caucasus

42. Revitalizing the 3+3 Platform: A Formula for a New Regional Security Order?

Author:
Vasif Huseynov
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
On 23 October 2023, the second meeting of the 3+3 Consultative Regional Platform took place in Tehran, Iran. This platform is built upon the idea of bringing together Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia ‘plus’ Iran, Russia, and Türkiye for regional cooperation had been introduced by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Türkiye after the Second Karabakh War. Georgia, owing to its ongoing territorial conflict with Russia, refused to participate in the platform, though its leaders signaled that they might reconsider this position in the future. The initiative, even in the 2+3 format (i.e., without Georgia), has faced several challenges, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and Iran’s mercurial policies in the region. The first meeting within this initiative (without Georgia’s participation) was held in Moscow on 10 December 2021 at the level of deputy foreign ministers. At that inaugural meeting, each side expressed optimism regarding the future of this framework. However, this optimism did not materialize for a long time. While Moscow and Tehran remained supportive of the 3+3 initiative, it mostly lost its relevance and importance for the other actors, including Azerbaijan. Despite repeated announcements by Russian and Iranian officials regarding preparations for the second meeting in this format, it took nearly two years for the meeting to actually occur. According to Russia’s leadership, the West was undermining this initiative
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Politics, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Caucasus

43. Time to Dream? Toward a ‘Shared Future’ Perspective for the South Caucasus

Author:
Alpaslan Özerdem
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The South Caucasus—a region at the intersection of Europe and Asia and a constituent part of what the editors of Baku Dialogues call the Silk Road region—is rich in history and cultural diversity, yet marked by complex geopolitical challenges. Comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, this region is not only a mosaic of cultures and languages but also a nexus of strategic interests for global powers. The intricate landscape of the South Caucasus is defined by its history of territorial disputes, ethnic tensions, and the influence of neighboring powers, notably Russia, Türkiye, and Iran. These factors and the region’s significant energy resources have made it a focal point of international diplomacy and regional power struggles. The present-day dynamics in the South Caucasus are shaped by the legacies of the Soviet era and more recent territorial disputes, notably the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (and surrounding areas) and the conflict between Georgia and Russia over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As these states navigate their post-Soviet identities and relationships, the potential for a cooperative, shared future presents itself as both a monumental challenge and a transformative opportunity. This article explores the prospects for peace, cooperation, and regional integration in the South Caucasus, delving into the complex interplay of historical legacies, current tensions, and future possibilities for a region at a crossroads. Geography is one of the critical features of nations and states for their peace, prosperity, and culture. However, geography is not the only determinant that dictates how countries live in peace and security. Climate, landscape, and natural resources are essential, but also political factors such as governance, corruption, trade laws, and political stability. Being landlocked does not mean a country cannot build a strong economy and trade with the rest of the world. There are many examples of countries in challenging geographies that have still developed strong economies with high levels of human development. The Netherlands is a small country, where around 20 percent of its current land has been reclaimed from the sea or lakes, but it is one of the world’s largest exporters of agricultural products. Costa Rica is surrounded by countries torn apart by armed conflict, but it does not even have an army. Similarly, although history is a critical defining factor in forming political, social, and economic relations, it does not need to dictate whether nations live in peace or conflict with each other in the same geographical regions. The legacy of the past can be transformed to generate new ideas and opportunities for living in peace in the future. There are many examples of regions where countries experienced historical enmities but built new types of relations to live side by side and prosper together. They even managed to form alliances and economic cooperation organizations, such as the European Union.
Topic:
International Cooperation, History, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Geography, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
South Caucasus

44. What Is Public Diplomacy? Fostering Cooperation, Countering Disinformation

Author:
Alan K. Henrikson
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Among the various kinds of diplomacy, one of the newest to be designated with a distinct name is “public diplomacy.” This is a supportive function, for like an actor in the theatre, the public diplomat plays a part. It may be a significant part, but rarely if ever is it the ‘lead.’ Public diplomacy assists leaders and senior officials of governments and of international organizations by presenting and explaining their policies and, more broadly, managing the communications aspects of their strategies. Public diplomacy work—the role of which is mainly informational—nowadays has included cultural interaction and educational exchange as well. For some countries, those functions have been handled somewhat separately, even at arm’s length, from political representation and policy promotion (e.g., the British Council, Alliance Française, Goethe Institut, Instituto Cervantes, and Confucius Institute). Public diplomacy is not, I wish to emphasize, merely instrumental—a means to any end. It is a purposeful activity, with qualities that are inherent, the aims of which are not arbitrarily chosen. Public diplomacy is a purposeful activity, with qualities that are inherent, the aims of which are not arbitrarily chosen. There are objective standards in the world, including those of natural science and scholarly knowledge, to which it may owe its convincingness. Because public diplomacy operates in the judgmental realm of popular opinion, which in the globalized world of today is more and more universal in scope, it must, in order to be effective, appeal to the reason, tastes, values, and aspirations of peoples of different traditions in distant s o c i e t i e s — o v e r whom no formal or direct political authority is held or control exercised. Its objectives must be achieved noncoercively and for the most part openly, through public media and transparent private communication. It works primarily through persuasion and attraction, rather than by command, employment of force, or subterfuge. That is not to deny that manipulation can occur, as with military “information operations.” Insofar as public diplomacy succeeds in assisting a government or an organization to achieve its purposes, it is, despite its noncoerciveness, powerful. Influence over minds, from the level of the individual to that of society, is an ultimate arbiter. “Public opinion,” as Napoleon Bonaparte famously advised, “is the thermometer a monarch should constantly consult.” Today’s leaders, irrespective of the type of regime or political form in which they operate, can rise or fall according to it
Topic:
International Cooperation, Disinformation, and Public Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

45. Karabakh and Azerbaijani Statecraf

Author:
Michael M. Gunter
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
This brief article seeks to make two important and related points. The first is that the international law principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity hold that Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan, despite misleading arguments to the contrary about supposed Armenian rights of self-determination. The second provides a partial assessment of Heydar Aliyev’s legacy and how it relates to some of the policies pursued by his successor, Ilham Aliyev. Each will be examined in turn.
Topic:
International Law, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, and Self-Determination
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

46. Statesmanship in the Silk Road Region: Reflections on Heydar Aliyev’s Achievement

Author:
Rodrigo Labardini
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
I began writing this essay near the end of a triple jubilee year for Heydar Aliyev: the centenary of his birth, the thirtieth anniversary of his return to Baku (celebrated as National Salvation Day), and the twentieth anniversary of his death. Heydar Aliyev was a significant leader who left a lasting impact in the Caucasus region—not just in Azerbaijan. Heydar Aliyev was indispensable in shaping Azerbaijan’s vision for the future and establishing the country as a vital player in the Silk Road region. Several key traits (in the final part of this essay, I identify nine such traits) characterized his leadership style and contributed to his success, particularly in navigating the complex dynamics of the region between East and West, oil and energy, and its future development. Heydar Aliyev’s presence in Azerbaijan’s history represents a leader who was able to quell civil war and unrest and offer stability to the country, which became instrumental in launching the economic growth, and development of the country—and eventually of the region. These, in turn, enabled several things, including improved living standards, putting Azerbaijan on the global energy map, and significantly modernizing its military. Azerbaijan has demonstrated to the world that sustained economic efforts, accompanied by political patience and apt international analysis and evaluation of the world’s political situation, made true—in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic—the “day for which all Azerbaijani people were waiting,” namely the return of Karabakh.
Topic:
Development, History, Natural Resources, Leadership, Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

47. Heydar Aliyev’s Energy and Infrastructure Strategy

Author:
Vitaliy Baylarbayov
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
National Leader Heydar Aliyev had an exceptional understanding of foreign policy and national security dynamics. Through his strategic vision, he was able to lead the Republic of Azerbaijan from a situation of state collapse at independence to one characterized by political, economic, and security viability. Moreover, Heydar Aliyev’s geopolitical strategy enabled Azerbaijan to conduct independent policies, not dictated by any regional or global power. In support of his geopolitical strategic vision, Heydar Aliyev conceived of and executed an energy and infrastructure strategy that enabled Azerbaijan to become a major oil and natural gas producer and, in turn, to change the energy map of the Caspian region and the European continent. The core of this policy was the establishment of the East-West corridor from the Caspian region through Georgia and Türkiye to the West.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Trade, Strategic Planning, and Energy
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

48. Beyond the Quasi-Alliance? An Analysis of the Japan-Australia Special Strategic Partnership

Author:
Daisuke Akimoto
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This article examines a pathway of the Japan-Australia “special strategic partnership” in recent years. Both countries have developed a special strategic partnership, referred to as a “quasi-alliance”. Hence, the purpose of this research is to contextualise the development of the Australia-Japan quasi-alliance from global, regional, and bilateral perspectives. Globally, the quasi-alliance has been influenced by power transition and hegemonic competition in global politics. Regionally, the quasi-alliance has been embedded into the trilateral and multilateral strategic frameworks in the Indo-Pacific. Bilaterally, the quasi-alliance has been shaped by the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation (JDSC). Nonetheless, close security ties were temporarily adrift over Australia’s submarine deal and realigned by tangible milestones, such as the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) and the new JDSC signed off in 2022. While investigating these footsteps of the quasialliance formation, this article considers whether both countries have moved beyond the quasi-alliance toward a full military alliance in the changing strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific region
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Quad Alliance, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Australia

49. The Regional Security Complex Theory and Energy Triangle of EU-TurkeyRussia

Author:
Mehmet Ferhat Fırat
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This study explores the application of the regional security complex theory (RCST) to the energy relations between the European Union (EU), Russia, and Turkey. It underscores the critical role of energy security in shaping international relations and highlights the mutual interdependence among these actors in the energy issue. The study sheds light on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy security and emphasizes the need for diversification of energy sources to reduce dependency on Russian natural gas. Turkey's active and neutral policy with Russia has formed a security complex in energy relations among these three actors. The claim that shared concerns or threat perceptions among actors assumed by the regional security complex theory constitutes a security complex has been used within the framework of this study to justify the existence of an energy security complex between Turkey, Russia, and the EU. Furthermore, given its strategic geographical position and energy infrastructure projects, this research outlines Turkey's potential as a critical isolator actor and energy hub in the region. Overall, this study offers valuable insights into the complex dynamics of energy relations and the evolving regional energy security landscape in the EU-Russia-Turkey triangle.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Security, Energy Security, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Turkey

50. NATO PA's Role in Consolidating Article 2 of the Atlantic Alliance Treaty

Author:
Nuno Alberto Rodrigues Santos Loureiro
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Article 2 of the North Atlantic Treaty, also known as the Washington Treaty, stipulates that international relations between member states should be conducted peacefully and with mutual respect, based on free institutions, thus creating conditions of stability, security, and satisfaction within the Alliance. It also promotes the elimination of opposition factors about international economic policies, which, in turn, are based on a collaborative foundation. Despite this more peaceful premise, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is, above all, a collective defence alliance, and over its 74-year history, there have been no further commitments that would allow for more integration despite the shared common values that were at its inception. The Parliamentary Assembly of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO PA) is an Interparliamentary Organisation (IPO) that acts independently of the North Atlantic Alliance but brings together parliamentarians from its member states and associates. Although its resolutions are merely recommendatory and advisory in nature, they have provided crucial strategic input into NATO's action, allowing parliaments to properly reflect on the organization's interests and strategies in national debates.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and North America