Content Type: Journal Article - CIAO Search Results

601. The Adaptation of Land Forces to the New Multipolar Order

Author:: Ricardo J. Vieira
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: The adaptation of land forces to the new multipolar order is essential for understanding the current dynamics of the International System. This essay analyses the relationship between shifts in global polarity and the reorganisation of land forces, investigating whether strategic competition is driving a return to a conventional era. The research findings indicate that the unipolar era favoured disarmament policies, whereas multipolarity has intensified geopolitical tensions, making military power a central element of state security. The rise of revisionist powers, such as Russia and China, has reinforced the need for conventional rearmament. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine exemplifies this transition, highlighting the renewed relevance of land forces and conventional logistics. A mechanised, division-level military structure has replaced the expeditionary model of the unipolar era. It is concluded that multipolarity drives conventional militarisation, although other factors may also influence this trend.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Multipolarity, International System, and Superpowers
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia

602. Overtourism: A Local and International Challenge to the Iberian Peninsula and Italy

Author:: Maria Antónia Pires de Almeida
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Tourism is an agent of climate change. It transforms land use and favours CO2 emissions, especially due to air travel. It consumes large amounts of water, particularly groundwater, to irrigate golf fields and supply swimming pools and water parks. In some regions, the relevant stakeholders are not concerned about environmental and sustainability matters. Particularly in the South of Portugal, where tourism is one of the main economic activities. Several Civil Society Organisations and NGO in Portugal, Spain, and Italy are raising awareness and confronting authorities. They advocate a more sustainable tourist model. How are central and local governments addressing the overtourism problem? With research on legislation and current negotiations, as well as content analysis of the press and social media, this article aims to identify and describe major concerns, proposals and solutions regarding tourism.
Topic:: Water, Tourism, Protests, Public Policy, Housing, Local Government, and Overtourism
Political Geography:: Europe, Spain, Italy, and Portugal

603. Revisiting Alexis de Tocqueville's Civil Society Concept from a PoliticalEconomic Perspective

Author:: Ali Erdem Başçoban
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This study aims to re-examine the civil and political associations of Alexis de Tocqueville, who is seen as one of the founders of the concept of civil society in the modern sense. With a historical approach to Alexis de Tocqueville's conceptualization of civil society, it is claimed that there is a cleavage between his views on civil society then and civil society in the modern sense and by employing this historical perspective, the study aims to demonstrate the separation between political - civil associations and the state coincides with the distinction of the political and economic spheres. To make the paper's central argument clear, it is argued that the concept of civil society contributed to regulating the political sphere in the political-economic distinction created by capitalism. Through this regulation, it is claimed that the specific understanding of civil society was in harmony with the social conditions from which American capitalism emerged. The study argues that civil society cannot be seen as separate from the state, politics and economy by reading the civil society debates on the axis of Alexis de Tocqueville and capitalism.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Politics, Capitalism, and Alexis de Tocqueville
Political Geography:: Global Focus

604. Leveraging the competencies of people and non-system entities during disaster and rescue operations

Author:: Robert Piec, Antoni Morawski, and Mateusz Banaś
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: A disaster is an event that has a negative impact on people and the environment on such a scale that its effects cannot be controlled by the resources of the local community. Managing rescue operations during disasters and major accidents is a major challenge due to their complexity. A flexible and effective rescue system is essential to minimise the effects of a disaster. Based on considerations regarding the complexity of rescue systems, analyses of scientific articles, legal acts, documents of authorities responsible for crisis management and press reports, the research problem can be formulated as follows: whether or how the use of non-system competences during rescue operations will affect the effectiveness of the crisis management process when rescuing people or the environment. The Key Performance Indicators method was used to evaluate rescue operations. The analysis shows that non-systemic competences had a significant impact on improving the effectiveness of rescue operations, particularly in terms of response time and coordination. The greater the support from international experts, non-governmental organisations and technology, the better the results in terms of flexibility, safety and availability of resources.
Topic:: Security, Disaster Relief, Search and Rescue, and Resource Operations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

605. Natural Resources, Global Power Relations, and Economic Development: Insights from Mongolia

Author:: Tomasz Legiędź
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: This article explores the resource curse phenomenon in the Global South, using Mongolia as an example. Mainstream economists and international financial institutions typically attribute the failure to convert resource wealth into prosperity to domestic institutional deficiencies, such as corruption and a weak rule of law. This study challenges this dominant institutional approach by shifting the analytical focus from local pathologies to the transnational context. Drawing on Critical Political Economy, specifically the Murdoch School, it argues that the regulatory frameworks governing mining, often referred to as ‘modes of governance’, are frequently products of global relations of power. These frameworks are designed to align with the accumulation strategies of foreign investors rather than national development goals. The article begins by reviewing the literature on the relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth. Second, it interrogates the prevailing governance models by highlighting the structural asymmetries and power dynamics that shape extractive industries. Finally, the empirical analysis of Mongolia demonstrates how external pressure, debt dependency, and the imposition of neoliberal norms constrain state sovereignty. Ultimately, the paper concludes that ‘good governance’ reforms can perpetuate an ‘institutional trap,’ facilitating the extraction of surplus by foreign actors while limiting the developmental capacity of resource-rich nations.
Topic:: Political Economy, Institutions, Mining, Economic Development, and Industry
Political Geography:: Mongolia and Asia

606. The Russian Orthodox Church as an Instrument of Kremlin Influence and a Factor of Destabilisation in Ukraine

Author:: Valentyna Hodlevska
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: This article investigates the role of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) and its Ukrainian branch—the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP)—as instruments of Russian political influence and destabilization in Ukraine. The study focuses on the UOC-MP’s ideological alignment with the Kremlin and its impact on Ukrainian national security, especially in the context of Russia’s ongoing aggression. Employing a qualitative analysis of official church statements, government documents, legislative acts, and media reports , the research traces the evolving relationship between the UOC-MP and the ROC, including the effects of the 2018 Tomos of Autocephaly and the aftermath of the 2022 full-scale invasion. The findings demonstrate that despite a formal declaration of separation from the ROC, the UOC-MP continued to maintain institutional and ideological ties with Moscow, leading to increased societal distrust and state intervention. The culmination of this process was the 2024 ban on the ROC and its affiliates in Ukraine, which signaled a decisive move toward religious sovereignty and the consolidation of an independent Ukrainian Orthodoxy.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Ideology, Destabilization, Russia-Ukraine War, Russian Orthodox Church, Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, and Orthodox Church of Ukraine
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine

607. Investment in the Heart of Europe: What Shapes FDI in the Visegrad Countries?

Author:: Andrzej Geise, Małgorzata Jaworek, and Magdalena Kuczmarska
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: This study investigates the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Visegrad Group (V4) countries, focusing on the changing relevance of cost-, market-, and institutional-related factors. The analysis employs a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) model and panel Granger causality tests to examine both the long-run and short-run relationships between FDI and a set of macroeconomic, and institutionalrelated variables. The dataset covers the V4 countries over a time span between 1996 and 2023 and captures both permanent and transitory changes in determinants of FDI. The results show that in the long-run, average wage levels and government effectiveness are significant structural determinants, highlighting the importance of institutional quality and labour costs in FDI location decisions. In the short term, FDI inwards are mainly influenced by GDP growth, R&D expenditure, trade openness, and inflation dynamics. The results indicating the significance of factors determining FDI in the Visegrad Group countries may be of particular importance for policymakers seeking to enhance investment attractiveness in a globally unstable economic environment.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Visegrad Group
Political Geography:: Europe

608. Corruption in the Republic of Poland and Combating Iit in 2018–2022. Introduction

Author:: Szczepan Stempiński and Jarosław Kopyto
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The phenomenon of corruption – accompanying dynamic economic development – is one of the most socially acute threats. It consists of both normative, organizational and also functional factors. Market demand for certain goods and services also plays an important role in the dynamics of this phenomenon. In this article, the authors used both a qualitative method (analyzing normative and regulatory acts) and a quantitative method (data contained in CBA source materials in 2018-2022). The working hypothesis established assumes that the area most vulnerable to the phenomenon of corruption in the RP is public administration, especially local government administration. Its verification was possible thanks to the identification of the main areas of corruption and the methods established to combat it, particularly in the context of the implementation of the Government Anti-Corruption Program for 2018-2020. In addition, data from Transparency International, the CBA, the Police, the Internal Security Agency and other services were also used. The article, which is the authors’ critical approach to the phenomenon of corruption, also touches on ethical aspects whose observance should be an established corporate standard.
Topic:: Corruption, Economic Development, and Public Administration
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

609. Fighting corruption in the Border Guard. Poland’s experience in the context of the EU and Schengen Agreement accession

Author:: Agnieszka Lipska-Sondecka, Monika Lipiec-Karwowska, and Wojciech Pempko
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: This paper examines Poland’s approach to combating corruption within the Border Guard before and during its accession to the European Union and Schengen Area. The study is motivated by the critical role of anti-corruption measures in meeting EU membership requirements, especially regarding the uniformed services. The main objective is to analyze the process and outcomes of anti-corruption reforms in the Polish Border Guard as both a direct result of accession negotiations and a necessary step for joining Schengen in 2007. The central research question addresses how legal and institutional changes influenced the effectiveness of anti-corruption efforts in this period. The study employs analysis of EU and national legislation, review of Border Guard internal reports and strategies, and literature review as its primary methods. The findings indicate that, due to limited EU oversight, candidate countries – including Poland – developed their own frameworks for tackling corruption, leading to substantial progress within the Border Guard during the accession process.
Topic:: Corruption, European Union, Borders, and Schengen Agreement
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

610. A recipe for longevity? Multi-tenure of provincial marshals as an example of a sustainable actor in a changing party system

Author:: Dawid Pieniężny
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The Polish party system has undergone many significant transformations in the 21st century. Despite this fact, at the highest level of local government it is possible to observe marshals of voivodships, who should be regarded as a durable actor, holding their position for many years. The aim of this text is to verify the assumption that the multicadency of provincial marshals depended on the ability to create a strong political base, the durability of local power conditions, and the adaptability of the marshals themselves – especially in the changing environment of the party system. The conclusions drawn from these considerations indicate that ‘eternal marshals’ are not only an example of a stable political entity in the changing conditions of the party system, but above all an effective ‘regional manager’ distinguished by a range of adaptive, negotiating and managerial skills, with strong ties to the local community and enjoying significant social and political support.
Topic:: Politics, Political Parties, and Local Government
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

611. Feminist Foreign Policy in Selected European Countries. Lessons and Best Practices for Ukraine

Author:: Oksana Voytyuk and Karolina Ferreira Fernandes
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Feminist foreign policy (FFP) is a state policy whose main goal is to promote gender equality, women’s rights and interests, marginalized social groups and eliminate colonial, racist, patriarchal male-dominated structures. The article presents the main principles of the feminist foreign policy (FFP) of Sweden, France, Spain, and Germany, and discusses Ukraine’s actions in this regard. Special attention is given to Ukraine’s future FFP strategy in the context of the ongoing war. The methods employed in this study include analysis of reports and interviews and speeches available online, document analysis, comparison, synthesis, and a systemic approach to FFP, allowing for a comprehensive assessment of current actions and the prospects for the development of Ukraine’s feminist foreign policy considering the evolving wartime reality
Topic:: Foreign Policy, War, Women, and Feminism
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, France, Germany, Spain, and Sweden

612. Lithuania through the eyes of Ukrainian war refugees

Author:: Giedrė Barkauskaitė
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: This article aims to discuss the specificities of Lithuania as reflected in the narratives of war refugees from Ukraine. The respondents for this research are women aged 30-47 from various Ukrainian cities. These Ukrainian women have to deal with more than just issues of accommodation and employment, or domestic routine. When settling in a new place, the differences and specificities of the host country, or, by contrast, its similarities to one’s country of origin become apparent. The aim of this research was to collect observations by Ukrainian refugees that identify what is specific to Lithuania.
Topic:: Women, Refugees, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Lithuania

613. The Ukrainian War as an Anti-Systemic Imperative and Its Geopolitical Consequences: The Rise of BRICS Influence

Author:: Charles Pennaforte
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The so-called Special Military Operation (Ukraine War) launched by Russia in February 2022 has had a major impact on geopolitics, the economy and international relations. The economic sanctions promoted by the US and the European Union (EU) have made Russia one of the most sanctioned countries in the world.The main idea of the US and the EU with sanctions was to promote the economic suffocation of Vladimir Putin’s government in an attempt to hinder the goals of the definitive annexation of the Donbass region and, if possible, to promote a regime change in Russia, even if it was not openly declared. On the other hand, the BRICS countries have not followed the West in applying economic sanctions, nor has the so-called Global South, despite great political pressure.This scenario brings with it a new perspective, both geopolitical and economic: the consolidation of the decline of the so-called US hegemony (Wallerstein, 2004) and the acceleration of the process of weakening the dollar as the standard for international trade. This process is still in the embryonic phase, as we will see in the course of our work.
Topic:: International Relations, Geopolitics, Economy, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

614. Reflections on Brazil and Defense Cooperation: Between Historical Advantages and Challenges (1822-Present)

Author:: Kamilla Raquel Rizzi and Danielle Jacon Ayres Pinto
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This research analyzes Defense cooperation in Brazil, seeking to facilitate a theoretical discussion and a proposal for a historical periodization of the actions of this type of cooperation in Brazil. When answering which are the most evident characteristics of cooperation in the area, as a working hypothesis it is pointed out that there are a) advantages and challenges in the actions of Defense cooperation in Brazil, b) a correlation between Defense and foreign policy in these actions and c) the mapping of priority areas throughout history is evident. Defense cooperation is a strategy that involves collaboration between countries to increase defense capacity, share information, conduct joint training, develop technologies and strengthen diplomatic ties. The review of the theoretical literature in the area points to several possibilities, understandings and paths for Defense cooperation, but in this research it was chosen to use the concept of stability as a factor generating cooperation, as well as the evolution of the correlation between Defense and foreign policy in Brazilian history.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, History, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

615. Canada's Contributions to Peacekeeping in Lebanon: Preserving Peace and Stability

Author:: Mohamad Zreik
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Canada has a long history of participating in peacekeeping missions around the world, and has played an important role in maintaining peace and stability in many conflict-affected countries. This study aims to examine Canada's contributions to peacekeeping efforts in Lebanon, with a focus on the role Canada has played in preserving peace and stability in the country. The research will analyze Canada's involvement in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), including the impact of Canada's presence on the peace process, the challenges and successes Canada has faced in maintaining peace, and the broader impact of Canadian peacekeeping efforts on the international community. By examining Canada's peacekeeping efforts in Lebanon, this study aims to shed light on the ways in which Canada contributes to peace and stability around the world and to explore the effectiveness of Canadian peacekeeping in resolving conflict and promoting stability.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping, Political stability, and United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Canada, and Lebanon

616. The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in the European Union: Causes and Consequences

Author:: Adrian Cuevas Talens
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The rise of right-wing populism in the EU over the past two decades has reshaped European politics. This paper explores the causes, characteristics, and impacts of this trend, focusing on political, economic, and social factors. The 2008 financial crisis, the 2015 refugee crisis, and debates on sovereignty and EU integration have heightened the appeal of populist rhetoric. Right-wing populists frame themselves as defenders of "common people" against "corrupt elites" and immigration. Case studies from Greece, Spain, Sweden, Germany, the UK, and Italy highlight how these parties gained traction and their effects on EU cohesion and democratic values. Addressing these challenges involves strengthening democratic institutions and enhancing solidarity among EU member states.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Populism, Right-Wing Politics, Regional Politics, Cohesion, and Immigration
Political Geography:: Europe

617. A New Scramble? Geopolitical Economy of Multi-Polarity in the Sahel and its Implications for Africa's Economic Sovereignty

Author:: Al-Chukwuma Okoli and Abdulkareem Alhassan
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This study explores how the Sahel has emerged as a contested space for influence, competitive stakes, resources, and markets. The paper posits that the Sahel’s geopolitical economy is characterized by a new scramble – a multi-polar struggle by the global and regional powers – for dominance and strategic advantage, with far-reaching implications for the sovereignty of the member states as well as regional stability and development. The paper underscores the nuanced issues that underpin the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Sahel and what they hold African agency and sovereign virtues, especially in the realms of economy and geo-strategy.
Topic:: Political Economy, Sovereignty, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

618. The Disinformation in International Relations: Examining the Vulnerabilities of Brazil

Author:: Leandro Loureiro Costa
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Some of the foremost concerns regarding information security in International Relations revolve around the repercussions of misinformation on the internal political process, with the aim of undermining adversary states. Certain studies have indicated the inefficacy of such endeavors in yielding substantial results in modifying the behavior of the targets. Given this assumption, this research endeavored to assess, in the context of Brazil, three hypotheses questioning the efficacy of this type of instrument. The conclusion is that the country finds itself in a state of strategic vulnerability but has undertaken institutional efforts to counteract the potential ramifications of a disinformation campaign.
Topic:: International Relations, Disinformation, Vulnerability, Information Security, and Subversion
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

619. Energy and Natural Resources in the Argentina-China Relationship: Interests, Cooperation and Challenges

Author:: Julian Bilmes
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The aim of this article is to analyze the outstanding role that energy and natural resources play in the increasing relationship between China and Argentina to inquire what type of development is outlined. These topics have a central role in terms of the bilateral trade balance, investment, funding and around cooperation mechanisms, due to Argentine bet to build new export complexes and Chinese needs for its energy and supply security. Oil and gas, mining and different type of energy generation are analyzed: nuclear, hydroelectric, solar and wind, highlighting Chinese firms positioning as well as bilateral cooperation agreements, its obstacles and challenges
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Trade, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Argentina, and South America

620. Ecopolitics and Ecological Trends in the Middle East: Realism or Utopia?

Author:: Katarzyna Czornik
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The paper explains that Islam and ecology do not contradict each other. Countries dominated by Muslims focus on the development of ecological trends. Ecological trends become essential to enhance the state’s position in the region and the international arena. In this case, ecopolitics becomes practical tools used by political decision-makers to create an image of a modern state whose economy is innovative and whose society is aware of the benefits resulting from the implementation of ecological solutions. Nevertheless, there is a close correlation between religious and political circumstances (functioning of authoritarian regimes) and low effectiveness of environmental movements and groups.
Topic:: Environment, Islam, Politics, Ecology, and Muslims
Political Geography:: Middle East

621. Brazil-China Relations Under Lula and Bolsonaro: Rapprochement and Distancing Through Discourse

Author:: Paulo Afonso Brardo Duarte and Lucas Braga Dutra
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article aims to provide a comparative analysis of Sino-Brazilian relations from the Brazilian perspective during the presidencies of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Messias Bolsonaro. This analysis is based on the examination of speeches made by both presidents during their respective terms. Drawing on the French tradition of Discourse Analysis, the study seeks to comprehend how the two presidents behaved in the context of the Brazil-China relationship throughout their respective terms. This study is based on the hypothesis that there was a desire to bring the relationship between the two countries closer during Lula's administration and an attempt to distance it, at least in President Bolsonaro's informal speeches, which was not, however, corroborated by his formal speeches.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Jair Bolsonaro, Discourse, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

622. Brazil-China Relations: A Three-Decade Analysis of Knowledge Diplomacy (1994–2024)

Author:: Rodrigo Franklin Frogeri, Francisco Jose Leandro, and Yichao Li
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: China’s rise has influenced global affairs, including its relations with Brazil. This study explores knowledge diplomacy - academic collaborations forming innovation networks that complement traditional state diplomacy. Marking 30 years of strategic partnership (1993-2023) and 50 years of Sino-Brazilian diplomatic relations (1974-2024), the research poses and addresses the following question: “To what extent does knowledge diplomacy manifest in Brazil–China bilateral relations?”. Using a systematic literature review and social network analysis, the findings indicate that knowledge diplomacy between Brazil and China remains in its nascent stages. Only three initiatives related to the co-production of scientific knowledge were identified, involving a total of six researchers from both countries. Despite the comprehensiveness of the analysis, the results reveal that state-level, proactive engagement between higher education institutions in Brazil and China has remained superficial throughout the three decades under examination.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Soft Power, Higher Education, Social Networks, Network Analysis, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

623. Open-access Challenging Dollar Dominance? How Brazil Responds to RMB Internationalization

Author:: Thaís Araripe, Luiza Peruffo, and Andre Moreira Cunha
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article explores the role of China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), in Brazil, analyzing how the country positions itself in the shift toward alternative currencies to the U.S. dollar amidst changing global monetary power. It addresses three key questions: How widely is the RMB used in Brazil’s economy? What institutional measures support RMB adoption in Brazil? And what are the implications of this engagement for Brazil’s role in the international monetary and financial system? Findings indicate a modest but growing RMB integration in Brazil. Rather than embarking on a de-dollarization process, Brazil appears to be employing an incremental approach – one that leverages selective institutional measures to diversify its financial risks while preserving its strategic ties with the dominant global currency.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Developing World, Economy, Currency, Internationalization, De-Dollarization, International Monetary and Financial System, and Economic Sovereignty
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

624. Between distrust and strategic opportunity: Chinese scholars discuss the U.S. impact in Sino-Latin American relations

Author:: Antonio José Pagán Sánchez
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This study examines how academic publications in China have interpreted the U.S. impact on Sino-Latin American relations between 2009 and 2024. This period encompasses three different U.S. presidents: Barack Obama, Donald Trump (first presidency), and Joe Biden. The findings indicate that, strikingly, distrust toward the U.S. was already present well before U.S.-China tensions erupted during Trump’s presidency, and that publications consulted perceived this administration as a strategic opportunity for China to expand its presence in the region. Under Biden, distrust toward the United States remained, and his presidency was not seen as much of a strategic opportunity. The study also highlights the consistent recommendation among Chinese scholars for Beijing to adopt a conciliatory approach toward Washington.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Academia, Donald Trump, Rivalry, and Monroe Doctrine
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Latin America

625. Too Big to Dock: Brazil-China Iron Trade and the Valemax Vessels Crisis

Author:: Victor Thives
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article analyzes the Valemax crisis to explore how regulatory barriers and domestic interests shape trade. When the Valemax, vessels owned by Brazil’s giant mining company Vale, were barred from Chinese ports, allegedly due to safety concerns, a diplomatic and commercial impasse emerged. Drawing on the Bureaucratic Politics Model, the study shows how Brazilian state agencies coordinated to defend Vale’s interests, while China protected its shipping sector. The eventual resolution, by transferring ship ownership to Chinese State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), illustrates how foreign firms must adapt to China’s political economy. The case highlights the influence of large companies on foreign policy and the complexities of commercial diplomacy in asymmetric economic relationships.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Regulation, Economy, Trade, Bureaucracy, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

626. The Third World Imperative: How Brazil-China Relations Emerge from the Aftershock of Richard Nixon’s Latin American Foreign Policy

Author:: Pablo Muñoz
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article analyzes the emergence of Brazil-China relations in the context of Richard Nixon’s foreign policy toward Latin America. It examines how American perceptions of Brazil as a potential competitor, and the geopolitical economic maneuvers of the Nixon administration influenced Brazil’s foreign policy decisions. The article highlights Brazil’s growing nationalism and its engagement with the Third World, including economic interactions with the Soviet Union and the eventual establishment of relations with mainland China. Ultimately, it argues that U.S. foreign policy played a significant role in shaping Brazil’s understanding of its Third World imperative, paving the way for closer relations with China that continue to this day.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Nationalism, Third World, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

627. Defining the Belt and Road: How Ideas and Interests Shaped Argentina’s Approach to the Initiative

Author:: Zara C. Albright
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: How do ideas and identities affect how countries evaluate joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative? This article employs process tracing to analyze Argentina’s negotiations prior to its accession in February 2022. Argentina is a crucial case to explain because both the Macri and Fernández governments faced similar material benefits of infrastructure finance. However, the Macri government defined the BRI as a form of alignment with China, while the Fernández government interpreted it as South-South cooperation and autonomy from Western-led financial institutions. These findings show that developing countries evaluate both the material and symbolic costs and benefits of the BRI.
Topic:: International Relations, Finance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Development Finance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Argentina, and South America

628. Beyond Its Wildest Dreams: Israel’s Campaign for Geo-Strategic Dominance in the Middle East

Author:: Richard Silverstein
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Not since the Roman conquest of the Middle East has any power imposed itself so thoroughly through military dominance as Israel has in the past three years. It has, during that period, achieved sweeping regional hegemony over virtually all of its neighbors. This is the realization of a decades-old objective Israeli leaders have long coveted, but never dared imagine. Even amidst multi-state wars with its Arab frontline neighbors in 1956 and 1973, it only sought limited objectives (the 1948 and 1967 wars may be seen as exceptions). After multiple attacks over the past year on Iran and its regional Axis of Resistance, Israel has in effect redrawn the geo-strategic map. When Syrian rebels toppled Bashar al Assad and cut off Iranian weapons transshipments to Hezbollah, Israel exploited this opportunity to degrade the latter through repeated attacks against it. First, it severely wounded thousands of Hezbollah’s fighters through pager mass explosions. Then it wiped out its long-time leader and an icon of resistance, Hassan Nasrallah, along with his named successor and others in senior leadership. More recently, it invaded Lebanon and now occupies a considerable portion of the south. In addition, the IDF has eradicated many of the villages and destroyed much of the civilian infrastructure there, rendering it virtually uninhabitable. Hezbollah seems, at least for the time being, to be a spent force. Unlike Israel’s past invasions of Lebanon and its 20-year (1982-2002) occupation of Hezbollah’s southern strongholds, which were met with fierce resistance, its more recent incursion has generated little conflict.
Topic:: Hezbollah, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Armed Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon

629. Israel and Iran: Major Threats to Middle East Stability

Author:: Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: For years, Iran has been accused of being the primary source of instability in the Middle East by much of the West, Israel, and a number of Arab states. One point of conflagration is that it maintains a network of armed groups across the region (the “Axis of Resistance”) which it deploys to attack other states in the area, such as Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. The second is that it continues to develop an increasingly sophisticated ballistic missile arsenal, which was brought to bear against the Kurdish areas of Iraq, Pakistan and Israel earlier this year. Iran is also criticized for supporting the regime of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (until December 2024). Furthermore, Western and Arab countries believe that Iran has violated article III of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by enriching uranium beyond the 20% threshold for civilian use. However, perceptions of Tehran as the main agent of regional instability have shifted in the Middle East and beyond during the past 22 months. A growing number of experts and organizations say Israel is committing more and more war crimes in Gaza, including genocide, and launching an unprecedented series of military campaigns.
Topic:: International Law, Armed Conflict, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

630. Caught in the Crossfire: Jordan’s Balancing Act in the Iran-Israel Conflict

Author:: Francesca Maria Lorenzini and Kourosh Ziabari
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Jordan’s defensive action to intercept Iran’s retaliatory drones and missiles, slashing through its skies in mid-June, has drawn both approval and criticism, underscoring the kingdom’s struggles to balance strategic alliances with public opinion.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Public Opinion, Drones, Alliance, Armed Conflict, and Strategic Alliances
Political Geography:: Iran, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan

631. Journalism in Peril: The Gaza Genocide as a Global Test of Press Freedom

Author:: Mohamed Salama, Shahira S. Fahmy, Mona Rafaat Alsaba, and Saif Shahin
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: In Gaza, it isn’t only civilians that are being laid to ruin; the freedom to tell the story of its people is being muzzled by successive Israeli strikes targeting and killing Palestinian journalists
Topic:: Genocide, Journalism, Civilians, Armed Conflict, and Freedom of Press
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

632. What Palestinian Statehood Must Mean to Mean Anything

Author:: Omar Auf
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: As more governments prepare to recognize Palestine this September, the gesture risks being performative unless matched with concrete policies such as sanctions and legal obligations, and a decolonial vision of statehood that challenges occupation at its roots
Topic:: Sanctions, Decolonization, Statehood, Palestinians, and Recognition
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

633. Confederative Futures and the Burden of Leadership in Israel/Palestine

Author:: Klara Vlahčević Lisinski
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The pathway to recognition of Palestinian Statehood does not require the world’s approval through the raising of 192 flags; rather, it requires convincing “one state only—the state of Israel”
Topic:: Leadership, Occupation, Statehood, and Confederalism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

634. Israel is Erasing Palestine and the West is Complicit

Author:: Nour Odeh
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The genocide unfolding in the Gaza Strip has allowed Israel to speed up its takeover and ethnic cleansing of the occupied West Bank in stealth mode
Topic:: Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing, Settlements, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

635. The Double Genocide in Gaza

Author:: Gregory H. Stanton
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Israel’s disproportionate response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023 massacre includes genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.
Topic:: Genocide, Armed Conflict, Palestinians, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

636. Optimizing Azerbaijan’s CICA Chairmanship

Author:: Madina Alasgarova, Aysel Bayramova, Fatima Huseynli, Ashley Nhabete, and Goncha Salahova
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The Conference on Interaction and Confidence‑Building Measures in Asia (CICA) is a multinational and multilateral platform designed to enhance dialogue and foster cooperation among its 28 member states, including Azerbaijan. With a mission to improve security, stability, and confidence‑building in the region, CICA stands out as a unique format that focuses exclusively on security issues, distinct from frameworks like the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It is, in fact, the most inclusive pan‑Asian security forum. Currently, the established Western‑centric security formats are experiencing erosion and legitimacy crises that undermine their ability to address the security concerns of Eurasia in general and the Silk Road region in particular. Consequently, CICA’s role as an exclusively non‑Western security platform is gaining prominence across Asia. Azerbaijan’s 2024‑ 2026 CICA chairmanship presents a strategic opportunity to advance regional and pan‑Asian security cooperation—or at least serve as a more effective platform for dialogue, free from the presence of outsiders. Drawing on its successful experience in advancing efforts to institutionalize the Non‑Aligned Movement (NAM), Azerbaijan, with its growing influence in multilateral formats, is well‑positioned to advance the process to transform CICA from a discussion format into a more structured and impactful platform—that is to say, into a fully‑fledged intergovernmental organization. To that end, this paper offers concrete and actionable policy proposals to ensure that Azerbaijan’s chairmanship is productive and beneficial for its member states. None are game‑changing, but taken as a whole, we believe they can help move the needle noticeably forward. Our approach is informed by a conviction that CICA can support Azerbaijan in navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape, promoting security in Asia through various confidence‑building measures (CBMs), and fostering new partnerships across the continent. Parts of this paper should thus also be understood as contributing to the discourse on the expanding role of the non‑Western regional multilateral frameworks in a changing and highly fragmented international order.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, International Order, and Confidence Building Measures
Political Geography:: Caucasus and Azerbaijan

637. Azerbaijan’s Multilateralist Posture

Author:: Yalchin Rafiyev
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: We are honored to feature an interview with Mr. Yalchin Rafiyev, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Republic of Azerbaijan and Lead Negotiator for COP29. The general topic of this conversation is multilateralism and Azerbaijan’s growing involvement in various multilateral forums. Mr. Deputy Foreign Minister, let’s focus the bulk of our time together on the newer multilateral organizations—the ones that are contributing to a transformation of the way that the world sees multilateralism. Perhaps a good starting point is for you to outline Azerbaijan’s overall posture toward multilateralism, which, of course, begins with the UN, the world’s sole universal multilateral, inter‑governmental institution.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Multilateralism, and Interview
Political Geography:: Caucasus and Azerbaijan

638. The D-8 and Azerbaijan: The “Islamic Eight” and the Ongoing Shift in the Global Balance of Power

Author:: Inara Yagubova
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The long‑held notion of the rules‑based liberal international order, which may be defined as consisting of globalization and a world order headed by the United States (benignly, in its self‑conception), is progressively waning. A new perspective that acknowledges the Global South’s importance and its increasing prominence on the international scene is beginning to take shape, with a shift from unipolarity to multipolarity. Instead of following the lead of the superpowers, the strong, serious, and ambitious countries that make up the Global South have become outspoken and influential players in international affairs, promoting causes that serve their own interests. In the conduct of foreign policy, one can say that more countries in more parts of the world are putting their countries first. Several key features highlight the growing autonomy of countries in the Global South. Despite their significant differences, they all prioritize economic expansion and strengthening ties with other countries through trade and investment. They are free from the geopolitical ambitions of the leading countries of the developed world and conduct their affairs in an independent (or multivectoral) way. In fact, rather than only reacting to outside forces, they are increasingly establishing new trade, technological, and economic development relationships that fit with their own strategic aims. Global power dynamics are therefore changing, particularly in the areas of commerce, climate diplomacy, and multilateral cooperation. Azerbaijan stands out as a strategic pivot in this context, using its location, political neutrality, and assertive diplomacy to operate as a link between these two international arenas. To that end, Azerbaijan has put forward several initiatives to be a platform for cooperation between the Global South and the Global North by increasing its interaction with developing countries. As President Ilham Aliyev stated on 20 July 2024 at the Shusha Global Media Forum, “We launch initiatives. We now actively work with developing countries in order to build bridges between the Global South and the Global North. Our advantage is that we’ve been chairing the Non‑Aligned Movement for four years.” At an international forum themed “Facing the New World Order” at the ADA University on 25 April 2025, Aliyev stated that “Of course, we played an important role in building bridges between the Global South and the Global North. That was one of the important assignments, which we put in front of ourselves. So, the way how we tackled COVID, the way how we hosted COP29 […], and bilateral contacts with African countries demonstrate clearly our agenda." In the past year or so, this agenda has included the successful organization of COP29, the takeover of the chairmanships of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence‑Building Measures in Asia (CICA) and Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), served as host of the summit of the Economic Cooperation Organization, and completed its chairmanship of GUAM. Next year, it will preside over both the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and so on. Azerbaijan is one of a handful of countries that is a member of European, Asian, Turkic, and Muslim interstate organizations. As an active supporter of multilateralism that pursues an independent foreign policy posture and is situated at the crossroads of flagship connectivity projects, Azerbaijan seeks to enhance its standing as a bridge between East and West, as well as North and South.
Topic:: Globalization, International Cooperation, Islam, Multilateralism, Autonomy, and International Order
Political Geography:: Caucasus and Azerbaijan

639. Why the U.S. Should Embrace Israel-Azerbaijan Alignment

Author:: Stephen Blank
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: This essay argues that Azerbaijan’s joining the Abraham Accords and formalizing its entente with Israel and the U.S. is eminently in the interests of all three states, particularly in the context of the Middle East, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia. In the wake of the 12‑day Israel‑Iran war and the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, as well as the U.S. proposal to oversee and perhaps even guarantee arrangements regarding the Zangezur Corridor to foster peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, this argument makes even more sense, given that Washington has expressed a clear interest in having peace and a lasting presence in the Caucasus. These events highlight the American presence in both the Middle East and the Caucasus and its de facto alliance with Israel. Given the growing intimacy of Azerbaijan‑Israeli ties and U.S. interest in pacifying the South Caucasus, this move by Washington and Baku to formalize ties among these three states would be all the more logical now. Indeed, President Ilham Aliyev has publicly welcomed this American initiative. This idea of extending the Abraham Accords to Azerbaijan apparently originated in Israel. Still, there is no sign that Azerbaijan opposes this notion. Moreover, as shown below, this tandem acts—and can act even further—in critical areas to further interests congruent with those of the United States. Since this partnership, long a fixture in world affairs, both reflects and can extend trends in world affairs that are beneficial not only to Israel and Azerbaijan but also to the U.S. Washington should encourage Baku to take this step. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu had to postpone his scheduled visit to Baku in May 2025, his postponement letter cited the deepening bond between the two states, which can be seen in increasing economic cooperation, expanded tourism to and from both countries, Israel’s construction of Azerbaijan’s satellites, and two daily flights by Azerbaijani airlines between the two countries. While this partnership, if not a formal alliance, is primarily founded on a shared fear of Iran’s aggressive intentions against both states, this tandem has now strengthened the economic dimension of the relationship. It is thereby forging a broader and deeper foundation that transcends shared anxieties. This can also be seen in Israel’s technology and defense trade with Azerbaijan, where Baku employed Israeli weapons in its campaigns in Karabakh and is buying Israeli radar and aerial detection systems. However, at the same time, this alignment also exemplifies a larger trend towards trans‑regional partnerships between Middle Eastern and South Caucasus states. A similar trend is observed in Central Asia, where Kazakhstan’s President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev proposed in 2024 that his country establish a strategic partnership with Qatar. Similarly, those Gulf states that are already working with Israel are becoming more entangled with Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus. Consequently, the Azerbaijan‑Israel partnership is no anomaly, but rather an illustration of a discernible trend in world politics that Washington should embrace.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Caucasus, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Azerbaijan, and United States of America

640. In the Grip of Global Bifurcation: The EU and its Possible Futures

Author:: Robert M. Cutler
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: A dozen years ago, I led a three‑week international scenario‑planning simulation for Wikistrat involving 80 experts across three continents. Our aim was to forecast plausible trajectories for the European Union through 2030. We developed four distinct “Master Narratives,” each representing a structurally coherent future. One scenario, Solidarity in Misery, envisioned the EU maintaining its formal institutional unity while stagnating economically and compensating for this stagnation through increasingly fervent affirmations of symbolic European identity. As of 2025, this scenario most closely resembles the EU’s current condition. The simulation did not just identify static end‑states; it mapped causal sequences—policy pathways and decision‑points—through which the EU might either entrench or escape each scenario. In the case of Solidarity in Misery, there were multiple routes to a more favorable future, marked by both economic dynamism and social cohesion. These routes, while varied in detail, shared broad structural characteristics. The scenario to which they pointed was called Wealthy Europe. Achieving it required a coordinated suite of interventions across fiscal, monetary, migratory, and geopolitical domains. Today, more than a decade later, Mario Draghi’s September 2024 Report on European Competitiveness, and Ursula von der Leyen’s January 2025 programmatic uptake of it, together constitute a partial, incomplete expression of that pivot. The Draghi report accurately diagnoses many of the EU’s structural weaknesses, and von der Leyen’s agenda selectively embraces its headline recommendations. Yet the incomplete nature of this policy uptake, combined with persistent institutional inertia and new external shocks, raises the specter that the system may absorb and neutralize its own attempts at self‑reform, even while ostensibly seeking transformation. This article evaluates whether the Draghi–von der Leyen trajectory can credibly shift the EU out of the Solidarity in Misery trap. It measures current reforms not only against their stated goals but also, more rigorously, against the systemic criteria outlined by the earlier simulation’s projected escape pathways. Using a complex‑systems lens, the analysis explores policy divergence, partial pivots, and latent fracture lines within the EU. It ultimately asks whether the Union is on the verge of meaningful transformation or merely rationalizing its own managed decline.
Topic:: International Relations, Reform, European Union, Institutions, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

641. Azerbaijan’s Multilateral Green Energy Diplomacy Powering: Regional Integration Through the Caspian-Black Sea Green Energy Corridor

Author:: Ahmad Humbatov
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: In some parts of the world, the global energy transition is accelerating, driven by increased electrification, expanding climate commitments, and the political drive to decarbonize economies. As demand for electricity generated from renewable sources increases—particularly in the markets controlled by the European Union or influenced by its unwavering commitment to climate action—so too does the strategic importance of cross‑border transmission infrastructure that can deliver renewable energy across regions. However, today’s grid systems remain fragmented, constrained by national borders, technical incompatibilities, and insufficient investment in transnational connectivity. In this context, large‑scale regional initiatives have become more important as critical enablers of energy security, economic integration, and climate resilience. Originally known as the Black Sea Submarine Cable, the project— now increasingly referred to as the Caspian–Black Sea or the Caspian–Black Sea–Europe Green Energy Corridor—represents one of the most ambitious and strategically significant responses to this challenge. The broader framing reflects both Azerbaijan’s prospective offshore wind contributions from the Caspian and the corridor’s potential to serve as a conduit for green electricity from Central Asia, including Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Although initially focused on a Georgia–Romania connection, the project has evolved to represent a broader strategic vision that links the South Caucasus and Central Asia, due to a combination of Azerbaijan’s geoeconomic ambition and the EU’s aspiration to lead the world in establishing a future powered by renewable energy systems. This paper explores the Caspian–Black Sea–Europe Energy Corridor, focusing on its structure, governance, and broader regional implications. It analyzes Azerbaijan’s strategic shift from a hydrocarbons exporter to an enabler of renewable energy systems. It examines how the development of this corridor is reshaping regional diplomacy, fostering economic integration, and advancing multilateral cooperation. In doing so, it highlights Azerbaijan’s emerging role as both a green electricity supplier and a facilitator of cross‑regional energy connectivity.
Topic:: Multilateralism, Regional Integration, Decarbonization, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Caucasus, Azerbaijan, Caspian Sea, and Black Sea

642. CICA and Azerbaijan: Does Membership Have Its Privileges?

Author:: Nijat Aliyev
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Azerbaijan continues to follow an independent (or multivector or balanced) foreign policy strategy, based on the assessment that it represents the best way to protect and even strengthen its sovereignty. After the liberation of Karabakh, Azerbaijan has increased its efforts in multilateral fora in both Asia and Europe. Consequently, in Baku’s conception, the intergovernmental organization Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), established in 1992 and formalized in 1999, is gaining increasing importance as it seeks to enhance its role in fostering security and peace throughout Asia. This paper explores the impact of Azerbaijan’s engagement through CICA, including its ongoing chairmanship (2024‑2026), on its relationships with neighboring countries and, more broadly, its international relations. We aim to understand: How has Azerbaijan’s active involvement in CICA helped it strengthen ties with other Asian countries and boost its role in Eurasia? How does joining CICA align with Baku’s other international efforts? By addressing these questions, the paper highlights the benefits and challenges of CICA participation for Azerbaijan and explains how CICA influences its diplomatic standing in the South Caucasus and farther afield.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Multilateralism, Engagement, and Confidence Building Measures
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

643. Reciprocal Defense Procurement: The Missing Element in U.S.-ROK Relations

Author:: Hwa Yu and Brian Hobbs
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Reciprocal Defense Procurement (RDP) agreements—managed by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)—exempt “qualifying countries” from Buy American restrictions in return for reciprocal market access and closer strategic alignment. Since the inaugural 1956 agreement with Canada, the DoD has concluded 28 RDP agreements mostly with NATO allies to foster rationalization, standardization, interchangeability, and interoperability among military forces. They also waive specialty-metal restrictions, improving access to critical minerals. Qualifying countries typically possess advanced robust defense industries, field U.S. weapon systems, and face regional threats from Russia or China. Post-Cold War additions such as Austria, Finland and Australia showcased geographic and political expansion; Japan and the Baltic states followed amid rising Russian and Chinese pressure. Ongoing negotiations with Brazil and India illustrate evolving aims: integrating key BRICS economies, shoring up rare earth supply chains, and aligning non-aligned states against rival powers— while discussions with South Korea reflect efforts to deepen industrial cooperation with existing allies. Domestic stakeholder pressures, defense offsets, and “America First” trade policies complicate RDP negotiations, yet countries with robust industry, shared security interests, and demand for U.S. weapons remain strong candidates for future agreements, strengthening a resilient, globally integrated defense industry network.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Tariffs, BRICS, Procurement, Department of Defense (DoD), and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

644. Ascension of North Korea as a Nuclear State: A Consequence of Childhood Neglect?

Author:: Nykolus Alvut and Kelvin Mote
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: North Korea recently announced the rejection of reunification with South Korea, discarding over 70 years of stability in Northeast Asia. Kim Jongun's new approach to the North–South conflict caught many by surprise, including South Korea. Initial reactions were nearly unanimous: North Korea’s decision injects significant uncertainty and risk into an already unstable region, increases instability, and renews fears of a North Koreainitiated war. However, what if North Korea’s decision injected stability and consistency into Northeast Asian geopolitics instead? Using an analytic framework grounded in political psychology, this article explains North Korea’s ascension to nuclear state status as a direct result of chronic neglect by the international community. The authors adapted the concept of Reactive Attachment Disorder (RAD) to diagnose North Korean decision-making and introduce a new concept—Strategic-Reactive Attachment Disorder (S-RAD)—based on the DSM-5-TR diagnostic criteria for RAD. The article argues that a new approach, formally recognizing North Korea as an independent nuclear state, would deescalate the likelihood of war and ensure regional peace and stability in Northeast Asia. The authors also identify policy and strategic actions, aligned with treatment criteria for RAD, which can be taken by the international community to treat the underlying S-RAD attachment ruptures.
Topic:: Politics, Nonproliferation, Psychology, Denuclearization, Korean War, Reunification, and Reactive Attachment Disorder
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, and Korea

645. “Unitary Social Democracy” and Lyuh Woon-hyung’s Relationship with the American Military Government in Korea, 1945-1947

Author:: Kyu-hyun Jo
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This article will argue that “Unitary Social Democracy” had its roots in egalitarianism as emphasized by Tonghak and Christian Humanism and aimed to promote social democracy through a mixture of democratic electoral politics and a Socialistic welfare system; it was due to such a radical amalgamation of Left-wing and Right-wing ideas which earned Lyuh the American military government’s ire and led Lyuh to an ultimate failure in finding a satisfactory agreement with American officials who refused and could not understand Lyuh’s objectives. However, despite American reluctance to understand his philosophy, Lyuh never gave up on his quest to realize an equitable system of land and property distribution guided by democracy and socialism, and he never relinquished his firm belief that the only solution to eradicating the Manicheanism of the Cold War was through seeking the American military government’s cooperation. This article will also argue that Lyuh showed a highly consistent and dedicated commitment to realizing his ideals such that he never changed or forfeited his philosophy even after north Korea was established in September 1945, keeping his creed intact until his announcement of the Seven Principles for Left-Right Unification in October 1946 and untimely assassination in July 1947.
Topic:: Government, Politics, History, Welfare, and Social Democracy
Political Geography:: Asia, Korea, and United States of America

646. The UN ECOSOC NGO Committee and Civil Society Participation in the UN Process

Author:: Greg Scarlatoiu
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This article argues that while UN action on North Korean human rights has centered on the Human Rights Council, General Assembly, and Security Council, the role of the UN Committee on NGOs—gatekeeper to Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) consultative status—remains undeservedly overlooked. Dominated by anti-human rights undemocratic regimes, the Committee often blocks human rights defenders from participating in the UN system. Despite this, a few organizations—the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK), the People for Successful Corean Reunification (PSCORE), the Database Center for North Korean Human Rights (NKDB), and Christian Solidarity Worldwide—have managed to secure consultative status thanks to determined advocacy by like-minded states such as the U.S., Canada, the U.K., and South Korea. These cases, however, remain exceptions. The article contends that a more strategic, long-term effort is needed to diversify Committee membership by encouraging democratic states like South Korea and Japan to seek seats, replacing members with poor human rights records. This endeavor will take more than just international cooperation among the like-minded. Overcoming internal bureaucratic resistance and prioritizing resources for NGO Committee membership would expand access for credible NGOs, strengthen international civil society, and ultimately increase pressure on the North Korean regime to address its human rights abuses.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, United Nations, Reform, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

647. The Case for An Atrocity Determination for North Korea

Author:: Olivia Enos
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This article argues that the United States and South Korea should seize the opportunity presented by the United Nations’ forthcoming update to its 2014 Commission of Inquiry (COI) report to re-center international attention on the dire human rights situation in North Korea. While the COI previously established that crimes against humanity were being perpetrated by the Kim regime, this article contends that atrocity crimes— including genocide—may also be ongoing, particularly against Christians and other vulnerable groups. Drawing on defector testimony, legal frameworks, and recent precedent from U.S. atrocity determinations (e.g., on Uyghurs, Rohingya, and Yazidis), the article urges Washington and Seoul to issue their own atrocity determinations to galvanize diplomatic action, promote accountability, and provide relief to survivors. It outlines how human rights violations are intertwined with the regime’s stability and weapons development, and argues that an integrated strategy linking security and human rights is essential. The article concludes with policy recommendations, including targeted sanctions, refugee protections, enhanced information access, and closure of political prison camps, offering a roadmap for a more principled and effective North Korea policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Genocide, Human Rights, Religion, Atrocities, Crimes Against Humanity, Christians, and Persecution
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

648. China’s Violation of Sanctions Vis-à-Vis North Korea

Author:: Gordon G. Chang
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: China, at sea and at land crossings, is facilitating commerce with North Korea that clearly violates U.N. Security Council sanctions. Beijing is also interfering in sanctions-enforcement activity in its peripheral seas. Hong Kong, due to Beijing’s policies, has become a major hub of illicit activities. China had done its best to disrupt the work of the U.N.’s Panel of Experts. American sanctions policy has been ineffective, in large part because Washington policymakers do not understand China’s top-down communist system. China, despite what many think, is not deeply concerned about the growing Russia-North Korea relationship. Beijing may have even masterminded the North’s recent sales of weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine and its sending of soldiers to the war there.
Topic:: Sanctions, Law of the Sea, Maritime, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

649. When Life Gives You Lemons: How EU Citrus Standards Can Limit Trade

Author:: Trinity Johnson
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: In the early 2000s, the European Union (EU) created multiple standards on agricultural imports. This paper focuses on the effect of stricter maximum residue limits (MRLs) for pesticides on citrus fruit exports to the EU after the limits went into effect in 2005. Using a regression model on overall citrus fruit exports and an interaction term for country-level income, the data shows that the EU’s stricter MRLs hurt exports from high-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income countries. Exports from low-income countries declined the most after 2005, while only upper-middle-income countries saw an increase in exports. For product-specific models, low-income countries saw a reduction in exports to the EU for all citrus fruits, while results varied by fruit for other income classifications. The results of these models demonstrate that the EU’s tightened pesticide regulation hurt low-income countries the most. While the regulation is meant to maintain a standard of food quality in the EU, its impact on low-income countries raises important questions about the unintended effects of import regulations. The EU could maintain its quality of food while alleviating the burden on low-income countries by relaxing its MRL standards or by providing more assistance to developing nations to meet its standards.
Topic:: Agriculture, European Union, Regulation, and Imports
Political Geography:: Europe

650. The Advisory Function of the International Court of Justice: Are States Resorting to Advisory Proceedings as a “Soft” Litigation Strategy?

Author:: Myrto Stavridi
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: In the last decades, there has been an increase in advisory opinions of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that relate to vital political interests directly affecting the sovereignty of states. Even though advisory opinions are not binding and do not require the consent of the states involved, advisory proceedings have been increasingly and strategically used by states and international actors as contentious proceedings in disguise. Exploring the history of the advisory function of the ICJ and its predecessor, this article argues that advisory proceedings constitute a “soft” litigation strategy and a particularly useful tool for small states or non-state entities, as it has the potential to counterbalance the inherent power disparities in the process of international bargaining by adding the authoritative voice of the ICJ to the debate. This paper connects this development to a modern tendency of states to judicialize international affairs.
Topic:: International Law, Sovereignty, International Affairs, International Court of Justice (ICJ), and Advisory Opinions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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Political Geography

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS