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1681. When the Economic Road Ends: Is Another Great Depression on the Horizon?

Author:
Tuomas Malinen
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
We begin with a quintessential American expression: “uh oh.” Those words very likely embody the thoughts of the chief examiner of the U.S.-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on 10 March 2023, the day when that bank faced a cataclysmic run on its deposits. In just two days, SVB customers tried to pull an astonishing 87% of deposits from the bank. It is obvious that no bank can survive such an onslaught. SVB was destined to fail. And so, it did—on that very day, in fact. Jonathan Rose, a historian and Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has published an eye-opening inquiry into the historical parallels of the runs on Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate, Signature Bank, and First Republic in a recent article in the academic journal Economic Synopses. His research paints a startling picture on the scope of those runs, placing them in the context of the history of the largest depositor runs in the U.S. banking system between 1934 and 2021. Rose found that the most destructive bank runs in the period following the Great Depression of the 1930s and before 2022 have been the runs on Continental Illinois and Trust (which commenced on 7 May 1984), Washington Mutual (8 September 2008) and Wachovia (15 September 2008). They saw a deposit outflows of 30%, 10.1%, and 4.4% of total deposits, respectively. To note, the run on Continental Illinois in 1984 was already a largely electronic one due to automated wire transfers, and thus “lightning fast.” The outflow from Silvergate was 52% (during Q4 2022); on SVB it was 87% (10 March 2023 + expected during the next day); on Signature it was 29% (10 March 2023 + expected next day); and on First Republic it was 57% (approx. between 10-24 March). These are truly historical figures, matching those seen during the Great Depression. Many authorities and analysts are currently pondering what this all means for banks, their deposits, and countries in general, and where we could be heading. In this essay, I will explain why authorities have caused the ongoing crisis, why is it likely to get much worse, and what this implies for the world. I will conclude with a bit of unsolicited advice on how a certain category of countries, which includes Azerbaijan, can prepare and even benefit from its effects.
Topic:
Economics, Great Depression, Banking, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and Global Focus

1682. Awakening Peripheries in the Great Power Clash Zone: Can Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia Come Together?

Author:
Jakub Korejba
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
This essay explores the consequences of the fact that states of Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia face a structural problem of the same nature: they are all located at the periphery of the main centers of global development and, for a major part of their contemporary history, were subject to external structural forces that perceived them as objects of great power rivalry (the “Eurasian Rimland,” as Halford Mackinder put it) and not as subjects of international politics. These countries are or at least should perceive themselves as a bridge between the East, West, North, and South due to their location between the “Eurasian Heartland” (also Mackinder) and the coastal “Sea Powers” (Nicholas Spykman). Unfortunately, this also puts them exactly in the “clash zone” of virtually every potential conflict between maritime and continental powers. This specific position has historically determined conditions for their development (or the lack thereof), and for a long time made the development of direct horizontal ties between them impossible. For most of their history, the political, economic, and cultural ties that they could have potentially maintained with each other were either non-existent or vertical, effectuated through the respective geopolitical center that dominated them. Although now formally independent for more than 30 years, this still remains the case—as most of the countries located in those three areas finds themselves not strong enough to challenge the old, new, or potential hegemon interested in keeping them in a subordinated condition. From the point of view of Moscow, Beijing, Brussels, or Washington, it makes little sense to let Warsaw, Baku, or Astana elaborate the sort of horizontal ties with each other (or others in their respective neighborhoods) that could potentially make each of them more (much less fully) resistant to the pressure of great powers still intent on instrumentalizing as a playground for their ongoing power struggle.
Topic:
History, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, and Periphery
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and South Caucasus

1683. The GCC and Geopolitics: Navigating Challenges and Maximizing Influence

Author:
Urs Unkauf
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The Gulf region is one of the most important geostrategic regions in the world. It comprises the Persian Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman. The region is of great importance to the global economy, being home to one of the largest oil and gas reserves in the world. The Gulf region is also an important hub for international trade and shipping. The Persian Gulf is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, connecting the region with Europe, Asia, and Africa (it is also adjacent to the Silk Road region). The ports of the Gulf region are important trans-shipment points for trade in oil, gas, and other commodities. In terms of security, the countries of the region are important stakeholders for Western, especially U.S. defense policies, and take a key role in the fight against terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Due to the foregoing, the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which was founded in May 1981, are playing an increasing role as actors in regional and international politics. Recognizing their vulnerability as hydrocarbon-dependent economies, the GCC countries have undertaken substantial efforts to diversify their revenue streams. They have shifted their focus towards sectors such as tourism, finance, technology, renewable energy, and manufacturing. Initiatives like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, UAE’s National Innovation Strategy, and Qatar’s National Vision 2030 have set ambitious goals to reduce reliance on oil and gas, foster innovation, and attract foreign investments. These strategies have not only led to the establishment of new industries but also facilitated job opportunities for the younger generation.
Topic:
Oil, Geopolitics, Trade, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gulf Nations

1684. On Some Conceptual Advantages of the Term ‘Silk Road Region’: Heralding Geopolitical and Geo-Economic Emancipation

Author:
Damjan Krnjević Mišković
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
One part of the internal deliberations involving the re-launch of Baku Dialogues that took place in the second and third quarters of 2020 focused on the journal’s subtitle; another revolved around the language of our Editorial Statement, which we published in the Fall 2020 edition that ended the publication’s hiatus. What substantively held together these two threads was the question of what to call the part of the world in which Azerbaijan is located. Since Baku Dialogues was not at any point envisioned to be an academic journal, we chose to emphasize this fact by employing the term ‘policy perspectives’ in the subtitle. And we chose the term ‘Silk Road region’ to cover as broadly and non-preconceptionally as possible the geographic space that we expected the essays we would feature in our pages to perlustrate.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and Terminology
Political Geography:
South Caucasus and Silk Road Region

1685. A Model for Connectivity: Hungary’s Strong Bond with the Turkic World

Author:
Balázs Orbán
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
For more than one thousand years, Hungary has existed in the heart of Europe, drawing from our rich history and unique geographic location. Sovereignty has emerged as a cornerstone of our national strategy, influenced by our past and our geography. While we align ourselves with the West, we also cherish our Eastern heritage. Taking a pragmatic approach, we strive to build meaningful connections and engage with the non-Western world. Balancing our Western ties with our Eastern roots, Hungary seeks to foster productive relationships and promote connectivity across diverse global landscapes. In the early 1990s, Central Europe experienced significant regime changes as countries liberated themselves from four decades of communist rule and reclaimed their independence. However, in Hungary and other Central European states, the political elite failed to fully leverage this newfound sovereignty. While the aspiration to reintegrate Hungary into the Western cultural, economic, and political sphere was wellfounded—as our country had a century-long history of belonging to the West—the emphasis on this objective led to a neglect of our relationships with the non-Western world. This oversight occurred despite clear and indisputable indications that the non-Western world was quickly catching up with the West. Subsequent governments, driven by political loyalty to the West, overlooked the vast potential Hungary possessed in terms of economic and cultural relations with the non-Western world—particularly through pragmatic diplomacy. However, a significant shift occurred after the landslide victory in 2010, when the Viktor Orbán government took charge and decided to change course. Since then, connectivity has become the central guiding principle of our foreign policy and our foreign economic policy, emphasizing the importance of forging meaningful connections, diversifying trade, forging value chains, establishing diplomatic relations with multiple regions, all the while also preserving our national sovereignty in the process.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, History, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Hungary

1686. Armenia-Türkiye Relations: Attempts at Normalization

Author:
Könül Şahin
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The Armenian and Turkish people have lived together for centuries in the same geography under various regime types and within various political forms. As countries, Armenia and Türkiye initially established diplomatic relations during the brief period of the first Armenian republic, which corresponded to the nascent years of the Republic of Türkiye. The absorption of Armenia into the Soviet Union put an end to this initial phase. It was only after Armenia regained its independence, in the context of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, that conditions enabling the renewal of state-to-state ties were again established. This essay provides an account of this complicated journey, which has not yet reached its destination. It is intended to serve as an analytic contribution to ongoing efforts by Ankara and Yerevan to normalize bilateral relations within the framework of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, with which it remains politically preconditioned. This essay also carries an oftentimes implicit subtext—no less important in a certain sense—namely, the role played by Azerbaijan in general and Heydar Aliyev in particular (2023 marks the centenary of his birth and the vigenary of his death) in influencing the development of the Armenia-Türkiye relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Armenia, and South Caucasus

1687. The Pashinyan Conundrum: Predictably Unpredictable, Consistently Inconsistent

Author:
Onnik Krikorian
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Resolving the conflict in Karabakh requires a careful assessment of the roles of Russia, the EU, and the United States—states that have been involved as mediator, facilitator, and supporter of the peace process, respectively. Moscow believes two things: one, that the EU and the U.S. are hoping to edge Russia out of the region; and two, that there is a particular interest in removing the Russian peacekeeping contingent from Karabakh when its first and possibly last five-year term expires at the end of 2025. Ultimately, finding a solution to the conflict over Karabakh and the broader Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict will require a delicate balancing act among the various stakeholders involved, with a focus on promoting peace, stability, and security in the region. But in the absence of such an environment, there are concerns that competition between the actors involved could disrupt what progress has reportedly been made to date. Regardless of that rivalry, however, it should be remembered that any peace deal will be signed by the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders—and nobody else. But here, too, the situation is unclear. Despite Azerbaijan’s decisive victory over Armenia in the 2020 Karabakh war, a final peace treaty remains elusive nearly two and a half years after the trilateral Armenia-Azerbaijan-Russia ceasefire statement was announced on 10 November 2020.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, European Union, Conflict, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh

1688. Central Asia in Contemporary Geopolitics: Between Global Powers and Regional Integration

Author:
Urs Unkauf
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
What is generally true of the Silk Road region is particularly true with respect to its Central Asian part: the region acts as a bridge between geographies, civilizations, resource bases, and power centers. Geopolitically and geo-economically, Central Asia is one of the most important theaters of the twenty-first century. In his referential book The Grand Chessboard, Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote back in 1997 about the crucial importance of the Silk Road region (his term was “Eurasia”), and especially Central Asia, for global political supremacy. Nowadays, this region has been pushed back into the focus of geopolitics like no other due to the Russian Federation’s attack on Ukraine that commenced on 24 February 2022 and the resulting, still ongoing war. Indeed, as CoEditor of Baku Dialogues Damjan Krnjević Mišković has stated on various recent occasions, “the global importance of the Silk Road region today is greater than it has been in centuries.” Brzezinski’s key, still-relevant insight is that developments in Central Asia would depend to a large extent on the reciprocal interplay of Western, Russian, Turkish, Iranian, and Chinese interests. In the mirror of current geopolitical processes, Central Asia is of particular importance as a surface of interaction and projection for the global powers— China, Russia, and the United States. Although the EU is trying to act as a shaping actor in the region through the recent launch of programs like Global Gateway, it has so far been of something between secondary and tertiary importance in its political impact, especially given the competition with sources of regional influence such as Türkiye, Iran, and (more and more) India. It has meanwhile become clear that new global and regional power constellations, alliance structures, and economic corridors will emerge. Writing in mid-February 2023, former UN AssistantSecretary-General Michael von der Schulenburg outlined the contours of a new global order in a remarkable article for the German publication Makroskop: Magazine for Economic Policy, in which he sees keystone states in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico), South and Southeast Asia (India, Indonesia), Africa (Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Africa), and the Middle East (Egypt, Saudi Arabia) as new drivers of an intensifying multipolarity of the world order. Although this order will not develop according to particular or hegemonic claims, one must at least take note of these processes. It is also important to recognize that the current processes of change and transformation are not so much the consequences of intended and planned action, but rather genuinely self-generating processes that reinforce themselves across regions. Schulenburg did not include Central Asia, but he should have. The region and its two keystone states (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) can also be included in this series and identified as one of the spaces within this multipolar constellation that can be considered a special arena of cooperation, confrontation, and regional hegemonic aspirations of global powers. Against such a background, this essay aims to provide a snapshot of Central Asia’s present geopolitical allocation in the context of broader international developments and trends. While the ambition of this essay is not to outline all challenges and opportunities, it does focus on the broad points that should be included in any strategic consideration of political and economic action in Central Asia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Silk Road Region

1689. ‘Appeasement’ and the Current Crisis: How ‘Munich’ Impoverishes Western Grand Strategy

Author:
Christopher J. Fettweis
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy loves to remind any Western leader who seems about to go wobbly that appeasing aggressors is not only dishonorable but strategically unwise and dangerous. When Henry Kissinger, for instance, suggested in May 2022 at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum at Davos that Ukraine may need to make territorial concessions to end the war, Zelenskyy said this: “It seems that Mr. Kissinger’s calendar is not 2022, but 1938, and he thought he was talking to an audience not in Davos, but in Munich of that time.” Indeed, Munich makes an appearance in every speech (and most off-hand remarks) that the Ukrainian president makes, as if the conference happened in 2018 rather than 1938. Zelenskyy knows his audience. The lessons of Munich and appeasement are deeply ingrained in the strategic consciousness of the United States and its allies. It is no exaggeration to suggest that the dangers posed by appeasing dictators is one of the central tenets of the Western foreign policy establishment. Those arguing for staunch opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin employ the analogy as much as possible, accusing anyone who disagrees of being ignorant of the most basic of lessons that history supposedly teaches. The word “supposedly” is doing a lot of work in that sentence. This brief essay begins by providing a historical overview of appeasement and explains how the lessons of Munich have been mislearned by generations of Western policymakers. That infamous conference did not lead to the Second World War, which was coming no matter what British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain did at the negotiating table. The essay then turns to the effect of misremembrance on U.S. foreign policy to this day, including its influence on the debates regarding Russia’s barbarous invasion of Ukraine. It would be best for everyone involved if the true history of the Munich conference was widely known, or barring that (since it is probably too late), that it was forgotten altogether. This essay provides a historical overview of appeasement, explains how the lessons of Munich have been mislearned by generations of Western policymakers, and then turns to the effect of misremembrance on U.S. foreign policy to this day.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, Grand Strategy, Appeasement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

1690. The Future of Global Uncertainties

Author:
Bilahari Kausikan
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The title of this essay—“The Future of Global Uncertainties”—may seem paradoxical, if not downright nonsensical. After all, how can one speak about the future of uncertainties? It would indeed be a fool’s errand to try—that is, unless the parameters of uncertainty can be defined. But if the parameters of uncertainty can be defined, are they really uncertainties? Although I confess to a penchant for paradox, the apparent contradiction will be more comprehensible if we bear in mind the distinction made by a former U.S. Secretary of Defense, the late Donald Rumsfeld, between “known unknowns” (“that is to say, we know there are somethings we do not know”) and “unknown unknowns” (“the ones we don’t know we don’t know”). My emphasis will be on geopolitics: broadly speaking, while the world has indeed become more uncertain, what we are confronted with are primarily “known unknowns.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, International Order, and Uncertainty
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1691. Shaping the Words of a Culture: Heydar Aliyev’s Lasting Impact on the Identity of a Country

Author:
Elnur Gajiev
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
How can literature shape the voice of a people? How may it invite the rediscovery and reclamation of centuries’ old tradition while simultaneously orienting a nation towards an uncertain, though desperately future filled with hope? How might words, poems, stories, and songs reveal an identity long repressed, yet now bold enough to form itself anew? It would not be a surprise if a similar strand of inquiry kept Heydar Aliyev company as he envisioned the future for his fledgling nation through a time of great tumult and transition. For he was no stranger to the significant role of the arts in sustaining, developing, and proliferating the merits of culture, particularly one with roots as deep as the literary arts of Azerbaijan.
Topic:
History, Culture, and Identity
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

1692. Unpacking ‘One Nation, Two States’: The Panoptic Aliyev-Demirel Fraternity

Author:
Ayça Ergun
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The exceptional, privileged, and special relationship between Azerbaijan and Türkiye is well known. The two countries are not only friendly allies but also strategic partners whose foreign policy priorities and strategic and economic interests overlap. The leaders of both countries enjoy their partnership as statespersons and friends dating back to when President Heydar Aliyev led Azerbaijan and President Süleyman Demirel led Türkiye. Both they and their respective successors have frequently referred to their brotherhood in the eyes of their respective publics and when addressing other audiences around the world. Thus, the same pattern has also been embraced by the current presidents of the two states, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ilham Aliyev, who both underline and highlight the motto of “one nation, two states” on almost all occasions related to foreign policy, peace, and security building in the Silk Road region, fostering economic ties, and constructing an energy and transportation hub and connectivity network in the region. This motto is not only a reflection of the policies and priorities of the two states but is also a result of the societal perceptions, popular support, and meanings attributed to each other by their respective public opinions. The social dimension of bilateral relations constitutes the backbone of the preferences and priorities of the leaders of both countries. Linguistic and cultural affinity facilitates communication between ordinary citizens, who greet each other with a warm welcome, resulting in “feeling like at home” in each other’s countries. Simply put, traveling to Türkiye for an ordinary Azerbaijani citizen does not really feel like going abroad: from the early years of restored independence, there was a pre-assumption of kinship with Anatolian Turks. For an ordinary citizen of Türkiye, who was much less literate on Azerbaijani culture and its people than his/her typical Azerbaijani counterpart, it was a sweet surprise to meet with people who speak (more or less) the same language. It was even more surprising to see how he/ she was treated like “one of their own” in Azerbaijan, regardless of the occasion—whether due to a government visit, business trip, or to engage in trade (since Azerbaijan was not, until recently, a tourist destination for an ordinary citizen of Türkiye). Indeed, various types of social encounters have made both ordinary Azerbaijanis and ordinary Turks see how similar they are to each other. In the more than thirty years since Azerbaijan regained its independence in 1991, societal interaction and peopleto-people contact have increased extensively through official visits, commercial relations, educational programs, civil societal initiatives, and intermarriages. One can thus argue that the framework adopted by Demirel and Heydar Aliyev has been significantly filled-in, adopted, reconstructed, and fortified by numerous groups and initiatives originating in the two societies themselves.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

1693. Heydar Aliyev As Architect and Founder

Author:
M. Hakan Yavuz
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
There is a story that Charles de Gaulle one day declared to Finance Minister Antoine Pinay, “the facts may prove me wrong, but history will prove me right,” to which Pinay replied, “but, mon Général, I thought history was written with facts.” At the centenary of his birth, Heydar Aliyev’s impact on Azerbaijani’s post-Soviet destiny has emerged as holistic, even if it is not yet fully appreciated in some part of the globe. Heydar Aliyev, like Charles de Gaulle, rescued his nation from collapse, reconstituted the state’s institutions, and set the course for his country to become aware of its potential. He crafted present-day Azerbaijan and its institutions, along with the memory and culture of his nation’s rise to independence. The formation of the Second Republic and Azerbaijan’s eventual military victory in the 2020 Second Karabakh War strategically bookmark Heydar Aliyev’s national accomplishment and legacy. At its center stands the economic renewal of the country and the effectual redrawing of the strategic map of the Silk Road region. Similar to how de Gaulle had to address the divisive war in Algeria, Aliyev had to deal with the First Karabakh War. He astutely found the breathing space he needed to revamp the nation’s institutional infrastructure. In the early 1990s, ordinary Azerbaijanis were not yet adequately prepared to fight and win against Armenian military power (supported actively by Russia), as the concerns of achieving economic viability in a newly independent republic were manifestly a more urgent priority. Aliyev sought to find the ideal path for saving his country’s face and pride in ending the First Karabakh War without making the sorts of concessions to the Armenian side that would humiliate and demoralize the Azerbaijani people. This was a difficult yet courageous decision. To extend the time and space for ensuring Azerbaijan’s nascent yet fragile state as an independent republic, he found a narrow path to end that war without a conclusive peace agreement by negotiating a ceasefire that would not cede Azerbaijan’s rightful claim to its territorial integrity. His unwavering stance that Azerbaijan could only be whole with all of its Karabakh territory included proved prescient—as the facts of history have sustained.
Topic:
History, Leadership, Conflict, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

1694. Heydar Aliyev and the Building of Azerbaijani Statehood

Author:
Svante Cornell and S. Frederick Starr
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Heydar Aliyev, nation affirmer and state builder, was among the most significant statesmen of his era. Of humble origins in a place distant from Baku, he gained early prominence within his native Azerbaijan and then rose quickly in the Soviet hierarchy during the late 1960s. By the 1980s he was among the leading power players in Moscow and decisionmakers of the Soviet Union. This experience was crucial when he returned to lead his native Azerbaijan in the 1990s in far from ideal circumstances. Thanks to his strategic thinking and ability to chart a complex path among national, regional, and world leaders, Heydar Aliyev set Azerbaijan firmly on the track that led it to become the successful middle power it is today.
Topic:
History, Leadership, State Building, Post-Soviet Space, and Heydar Aliyev
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

1695. Azerbaijan’s Impending Migration Challenge: How to Get Prepared and What to Expect

Author:
Tamilla Mammadova, Aynur Rahimli, and Parviz Sunatulloev
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Azerbaijan’s migration policy framework has seen major developments in recent years, including the consolidation of migration-relevant legislation in its State Migration Code. Moreover, close cooperation with the UNHCR on asylum status determination is resulting in overall recognition rates comparable to those founds in some EU member states. All this is to be welcomed. In April 2018, an EU-funded study published by the Viennabased International Centre for Migration Policy Development titled “Baseline Study in Migration in Azerbaijan,” confirmed that the country is home to a large number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), refugees, and other similar categories of people, due to the at-the-time ongoing conflict over Karabakh and surrounding territories with Armenia. Official statistics provided by the State Committee for Refugees and IDPs in 2017 put the number of IDPs at 789,000 and the number of refugees at 420,000— of these, 350,000 are identified as originating in Armenia and are, presumably, ethnic-Azerbaijanis. The 2016 figures provided by the UNHCR indicate 613,129 IDPs (this UN agency does not classify ethnic-Azerbaijani refugees from Armenia as “refugees” for methodological reasons). The numbers have not changed dramatically in the interim—in June 2022, that UNHCR’s IDP number was 654,839, although Azerbaijan’s flagship “Great Return to Karabakh” strategy aims to reverse the tragedy and hardship of displacement in the years to come, as discussed inter alia in several Analytic Policy Papers published by ADA University’s Institute for Development and Diplomacy as well as in essays appearing in the pages of Baku Dialogues by the likes of Nazrin Baghirova, Fariz Ismailzade, Aybaniz Ismayilova, Ruslan Suleymanov, and others. The UNHCR’s June 2022 report indicated that the number of registered refugees in Azerbaijan was 6,466, with most coming from Ukraine; another 3,585 persons were classified as stateless. Moreover, the number of asylum seekers from abroad has been very low. According to UNHCR data, a total of 2,277 foreigners applied for asylum in Azerbaijan between 2005 and 2015. Also according to the June 2022 UNHCR document, at the time of its publication there were 121 asylum seekers in the country, which is slightly below the annual average and may be a result of the fact that all of Azerbaijan’s land borders are presently closed (as part of a package of anti-coronavirus quarantine measures). Lastly, legal migrant inflows from foreign countries have considerably increased in the past several years, with tens of thousands of temporary and permanent residency permits being issued annually (the numbers decreased as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting worldwide lockdowns). Forecasts suggest those numbers will rise in the years to come.
Topic:
Refugees, Asylum, Migration Policy, and Internally Displaced Persons (IDP)
Political Geography:
Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

1696. Sustainable Agriculture in Aghali: The Smart Village Concept in the Great Return to Karabakh

Author:
Nazrin Baghirova
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
On 31 December 2022, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev delivered his annual televised address on the occasion of the Day of Solidarity of World Azerbaijanis and the New Year. One of his formulations serves as the political background to this essay: “the Great Return program is being successfully implemented. […] I am confident that hundreds of thousands of former displaced persons will return to their homeland in the nearest future.” The Great Return is a flagship state project to repopulate and rejuvenate the Karabakh and East Zangezur Economic Regions, which were liberated by Azerbaijan in 2020 thanks to its victory in the Second Karabakh War. This essay will examine how repatriated farmers can optimally utilize agricultural lands and water, gain access to equipment, fertilizers, and pesticides, and examine how they can gain access to agricultural retail markets thanks to technological innovation. The essay will focus on a pilot project being implemented in one part of Azerbaijan’s liberated lands, namely the Zangilan district, which is one of the five districts that since the administrative reforms of July 2021 belongs the East Zangezur Economic Region. A milestone was achieved on 27 May 2022, when Aliyev participated in the official opening of a “smart village” project in the village of Aghali located in Zangilan (the quotation that serves as this essay’s epigraph was pronounced by the president on that occasion). This ceremony marked the completion of the first stage of a green resettlement project that included 200 fully constructed residential buildings, the introduction of public services (ASAN services, banks, post office, hospital), a “smart” secondary school with a capacity for 360 pupils, a “smart” kindergarten for 60 children, modern infrastructure, a high-speed internet connection, and the Gilmed sewing factory. The state has also allotted agricultural fields to each household. (In the next phase of the project, the state plans to further expand the village and build 150 more homes, including two- and three-story apartment buildings.)
Topic:
Agriculture, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Resettlement, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

1697. The Turkish Gas Hub Project: A Pivotal Putin and Erdogan Arrangement

Author:
Rahim Rahimov
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Russian-Turkish relations have gone through a significant transformation under the leadership of Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Initially characterized as a Putin-Erdogan partnership, now the bilateral relationship has evolved into a strategic partnership between the two states. Uniquely, NATO member state Türkiye has effectively and, so far, successfully dealt with Russia and Ukraine amidst the ongoing war between them. However, contemporary contradictions, imperial pasts, a legacy of conflict and wars, and related mutual distrust and suspicion continue to linger in the background and, one could say, just below the surface: characterizing the ties that bind Ankara and Moscow is, thus, hardly a straightforward endeavor. This essay looks not only to the historical record but also explores the perspectives of the TurkishRussian partnership within the framework of an increasingly important thread of the relationship in the time ahead: Putin’s Turkish gas hub proposal, which he made in late 2022 in response to broader developments in the conflict over Ukraine. A major conclusion is that Ankara and Moscow are set to take forward their bilateral relations despite their historical baggage and current geopolitical and geo-economic circumstances. In this context, the Turkish gas hub project represents a pivotal idea for the future trajectory of this important bilateral relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Gas
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Turkey

1698. Time for an EU Foreign Policy Update? The EU and the Silk Road Region in Wartime

Author:
Samuel Doveri Vesterbye
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The European Union has a short history of handling foreign policy when compared to other political actors on the international stage. Most others have a foreign policy tradition that dates back several decades, hundreds of years, or longer. The EU thus remains a paradox. This can be seen by contrasting two characteristic sets of facts. On the one hand, it has established 140 embassies (“delegations”) worldwide and states that it is the single-largest global donor of international development aid. The EU is China’s second biggest trade partner (and America’s biggest trade partner), and its 447-million population continues to set many of the world’s trade and regulatory standards (it is not without cause often described as a “regulatory superpower”). On the other hand, the EU’s foreign policy administration, known as the European External Action Service (EEAS), has existed for barely a decade and a half. In fact, its competences in international relations only date back to the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, while its instruments, strategies, and external budgets remain less than two decades old. With the exception of the EU’s enlargement policy, the EU’s foreign policy strategies—the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and the Global Strategy— only date back to 2004 and 2015, respectively. It is within this context that we must understand and analyze both the successes and challenges that the EU’s nascent foreign policy faces today. This essay first describes what is generally understood to be the EU’s foreign policy, including policies, strategies, and instruments. This is followed by an analysis of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed the EU’s geopolitical and geo-economic thinking and thereby also its inherent foreign policy positions and interests. The third part briefly analyses how certain policies—namely the accession policy in the specific case of Türkiye and the Eastern P a r t n e r s h i p (EaP)—face serious challenges as a result of the geopolitical impact of the conflict over Ukraine and the gradual decoupling of Russian energ y-supplies and transportation corridors. The fourth part briefly examines how the EU is likely to inevitably reposition itself, in geographic terms, as a result of the ongoing war and its effects. This policy is likely to support a united EU that aims to fulfill its internal energy needs while obtaining sustainable access to rare-earths as well as relocated supply chains. The final part outlines how portions of a new EU foreign policy can potentially support this new geopolitical reality by establishing a more securityfocused, sustainable, and geographically diversified foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, South Caucasus, and Silk Road Region

1699. The France-Azerbaijan Relationship: Realities and Misunderstandings

Author:
Maxime Gauin
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The bilateral crises of 2020 and 2022 between Paris and Baku have provoked more emotional reactions than either dispassionate analyses or detailed projects to attempt to lastingly resolve the issue. This is not to say that relations between Azerbaijan and France are anywhere near where they should be—far from it; but supporters of what the relationship has been and could be again, to say nothing of those seeking to understand its present or wanting to shape its future course in a more agreeable direction—in accordance with the national interests of both Baku and Paris—have been done a great disservice by those who, intentionally or not, distort or misinterpret the speeches and deeds of either state’s decisionmakers and influencers. The main aims of this essay are to explain the origins of the current problems and (this is inextricably linked) to challenge the misunderstandings, misconceptions, and myths accumulated on both sides. This makes it necessary to start by providing the necessary historical background, in part because a misleading version of this past is presented today. And this misdirection itself has become an obstacle for the restoration of mutual understanding, to say nothing of warm and friendly relations. The second part of the essay will examine more recent events (1988-2017). The third and final part is devoted to the contemporary period (the Macron era), with its missed opportunities, and to some discussion of possible ways to bring an end to this litany of errors.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

1700. The Iceberg Melted: The Enhanced Visibility of Strategic Ties Between Israel and Azerbaijan

Author:
Arthur Lenk
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The strategic depth of the relationship between the State of Israel and the Republic of Azerbaijan may surprise many people. Each has found a discreet partner in the other that offers key, unique resources allowing both to respond successfully to some of their primary geopolitical challenges. The two small countries are both squeezed in complicated, unpeaceful neighborhoods; both have long-term simmering conflicts with challenging neighbors; and both see themselves as rational actors often needing to deal with unfair media and diplomatic treatment. They have quietly come together to partner in core areas like energy and security over a now significant amount of time while widening their cooperation to spheres like tourism, education, and investing in startups. The recent announcement that Azerbaijan will open an embassy in Israel removed one of the few outstanding limitations to consolidating fully the deep, strategic relationship between the two countries. Baku’s decision was warmly welcomed by Israel’s then Prime Minister Yair Lapid and President Isaac Herzog, together with public figures and foreign policy experts across the political divide in Israel. Azerbaijan’s parliament passed legislation on 18 November 2022 to approve funding for embassies in Israel, Albania, and Kenya along with a representative diplomatic office in Palestine, which was signed by President Ilham Aliyev into law a few days later. It is expected that the new embassy will be inaugurated in Tel Aviv some time in 2023.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus