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1381. The Lynchpin of the Middle Corridor

Author:
Anthony Kim
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Particularly in today’s evolving geopolitical and economic reality triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Caspian region has gained greater relevance whilst acquiring renewed significance. More specifically, one of the geostrategic consequences of Putin’s ongoing assault against Ukraine and its broader implications for the global economy has been the enhanced impetus for ensuring the pragmatic and strategic utility of the “Middle Corridor” (also more formally known as the Trans‑Caspian International Transport Route, or TITR) for the Caspian region and beyond as a viable commercial transport route alternative to the long‑established northern pathway through Russia. China, which has been eager to expand its economic networks, had hoped to dominate economically the utilization of the Middle Corridor as part of an expanding BRI. But at least some of the countries in the region (and beyond) have grown increasingly uneasy about participating in it. They have viewed China as leaving many of its BRI promises unfulfilled. And they have also become more concerned that Beijing’s BRI engagement comes with too many geopolitical strings attached and can lead to debt traps. By and large, China has invested in a number of infrastructure projects in Central Asia within the framework of BRI. Most of China’s activity has taken place on the eastern shore of the Caspian. Major port, pipeline, and infrastructure projects on the Caspian’s western shore have been done without much, if any, direct Chinese involvement. Making the Middle Corridor work properly is not an easy task: it will take considerable degrees of time, financial means, and political commitment. With many economic and political challenges lingering around, by no means, the cross‑country transportation route could become the cheapest option any time soon. Nonetheless, in an increasingly raucous world where diversifying supply chains reduce risk and has become more desirable, the route could become not only fully viable but, more importantly, truly cost‑effective.
Topic:
Security, Development, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

1382. Strategic Opportunity for the Middle Corridor?

Author:
Selcuk Colakoglu
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Connectivity initiatives across the Eurasian landmass have been on global and regional agendas since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, with the newly independent countries of the Silk Road region prioritizing efforts to reach international markets so as to strengthen their strategic independence from Moscow. Amongst the numerous Silk Road connectivity initiatives, the Middle Corridor has the aim of building an efficient East‑West corridor involving countries located between the European Union and China (except for Russia). This essay analyses the pros and cons of the Middle Corridor project from the perspective of some of the countries most concerned, starting with Türkiye. It also examines how the COVID‑19 pandemic and the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war have affected the implementation of this initiative.
Topic:
Pandemic, COVID-19, Global Health, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Eurasia

1383. A Revitalized NATO and Its "New Strategic Concept" Amin Global and Regional Changes

Author:
E. Fuat Keyman
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
At the beginning of 2022, just as the globalizing world was entering the postCovid period and the United Nations Climate Change Conference declared a “code red” emergency for the climate crisis at COP 27, a strategically calculated move came from Russian President Vladimir Putin to unlawfully invade Ukraine. From the beginning, the invasion of Ukraine has generated impacts much larger and more transformative than any previous crisis, triggering serious crisis-ridden developments in the international system and globalization and forcing national governments and global actors to recalibrate and reposition. It is in this global and broader context NATO’s Madrid Summit and its “new Strategic Concept” should be analyzed and assessed. This paper argues that the summit is historic, necessary, but not sufficient. To substantiate this argument, it analyzes is NATO’s new strategic concept in detail, exploring its critical importance, its transformative effect and the six challenges that it faces.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

1384. NATO's Changing Priorities

Author:
Ahmet O Evin
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have led, with very few exceptions, to greater cooperation among members of the Western alliance and brought the transatlantic partners closer to one another. As a result, NATO, which has undergone several changes since the end of the Cold War, has regained its key role as the cornerstone of the West’s collective security interests. In its enhanced position, NATO also appears to be emerging as the champion of the liberal order as well as the universal values embraced by transatlantic partners. Yet, it may also be facing new challenges both from within, particularly in the case of a prolonged conflict in Europe, and from China, which is demonstrating increasing rivalry to the West.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

1385. Geopolitical Consequences of the War in Ukraine

Author:
John Rennie Short
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine signals a new world order that has developed from the bipolar world of 1945 to 1991 and the brief unipolar interlude from 1991 to 2008. This new world order is dominated by a relatively declining U.S. and an emerging Sino-Russo anti American alliance, a renewed sense of the West as a counter to authoritarian regimes and reversal of the globalization trends of the past thirty years. We are moving into a deglobalizing, multipolar world.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1386. Future Uncertain: NATO in a Post-Quantum Post-AI World

Author:
James Sperling
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The emerging and disruptive technologies of the 21st century—artificial intelligence and quantum technologies—confront NATO with a paradox: the integration of those technologies into national armed forces will significantly narrow and possibly invert the systemic technology dominance NATO has enjoyed since 1945 and widen the technology gap within the Alliance with potentially debilitating consequences for operational effectives and allied cohesion. The precise impact of these disruptive technologies must remain largely speculative, but it is certain that they will change the nature of war-fighting, exacerbate the security dilemma, and precipitate in a recalibration of the global balance of power.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

1387. Russia's Assault on Ukraine: Fallout From the War

Author:
Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The war between Russia and Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022, has now gone on for more than four months. It has already taken a severe toll on much of the world and will cause much more harm the longer it continues. Moreover, it does not seem likely to end soon. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently declared that Russia has barely begun its military operation in Ukraine. He has clearly stated his goal of taking the entire Donbas. Success in that endeavor may motivate him to continue the fight for other objectives, including the major industrial center of Kharkiv, the key Black Sea port of Odesa, and perhaps even Kyiv and its environs. For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said his goal is to push Russia back to the line it occupied on 23 February. His Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba has spoken of winning back the entire Donbas and liberating “the rest of our territory.” The U.S. Director of National Intelligence has predicted that a “grinding struggle” may continue for a long time. This article will explore some of the consequences of the war already in evidence
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1388. Geopolitics, Geography an the Ukrainian Russian War

Author:
Serdar Ş. Güner
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The trigger of the Ukraine-Russia war is the enlargement of NATO, essentially a Western exploitation of Russian weakness emanating from Soviet Union’s dissolution. Russia has communicated her reactions to the enlargement peacefully until the prospect of Ukraine becoming a NATO member. The second wave of enlargement coming from the direction of neutral states such Finland and Sweden originates from Finnish and Swedish fears of being the next targets of Russian military campaigns. NATO enlargement to Ukraine has caused Russia-Ukraine war that in turn has caused some neutral states to leave their neutrality and become NATO members. Therefore, NATO expansion efforts has led to a further expansion through war. However, the exclusion of and warring with Russia only obliterates the opportunity to form a large alliance to balance China. The West should understand that it is not wise to create incentives for the formation of a Sino-Russian alliance.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Conflict, Geography, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1389. The Historical Roots of NATO Engagement in the Mediterranean

Author:
Matteo Gerlini
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The new strategic concept of the alliance looks at the Mediterranean situation as a shift in the engagement with a history that is as old as the origins of the Western bloc. In this history, the Italian role has been an example for the other Mediterranean countries that later joined NATO. The steps in the construction of the Atlantic coalition started also in Mediterranean with U.S. military engagement grounded in Truman’s doctrine. Twenty years late, the North Atlantic Council’s report on the alliance’s future tasks examined crucial “exposed areas” for NATO, and first among them was the Mediterranean. After the collapse of the Soviet system, NATO worked on a relationship of coexistence and cooperation with Russia. The ongoing invasion in Ukraine has thwarted years of discussion and work, but the partnerships promoted by NATO with the countries of the so-called enlarged Mediterranean stand as a success story.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

1390. The Future of Women, Peace, and Security at NATO

Author:
Diana Morais, Samantha Turner, and Katharine A.M. Wright
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
In a ground-breaking move, Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) features prominently in NATO’s Strategic Concept for the first time, a powerful signal that it will form a central part of NATO’s changing priorities going forward. At the same time, there have been significant gendered silences in NATO and its allies’ response to the Russia-Ukraine War, undermining these policy aspirations. This is despite over a decade of significant investment in the WPS architecture across NATO’s political and military structures, including the creation of a high-level Special Representative on Women, Peace, and Security, reporting directly to the Secretary General and supporting a comprehensive WPS policy adopted in conjunction with NATO partners. Focus therefore needs to be given to what NATO can do to operationalize the WPS aspirations of the new Strategic Concept in practice.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

1391. A Compass and a Concept: A Guide to the EU and NATO Strategic Outlooks

Author:
Ricardo Borges de Castro and Rita Barbosa Lobo
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine launched on 24 February 2022 upended Europe’s security order. The invasion was a wake-up call that peace in the continent should not be taken for granted and a catalyst for change at European and transatlantic level. The EU adopted a long-term Strategic Compass for security and defense. NATO, no longer “braindead,” issued a new Strategic Concept for the coming decade and is expanding. While there is convergence in strategic outlooks, questions remain on how both organizations will cooperate and coordinate their actions, implement the investment, troops and capabilities’ goals set in each document as well as deal with countries such as China.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Military Strategy, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1392. NATO After Madrid: Preparing for an Age of Confrontation and Disruption

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
NATO’s Madrid Summit in June 2022 was potentially transformative. Allied leaders agreed to a fundamental shift in NATO’s deterrence and defense posture and to continue the fight against terrorism. They committed to long-term support for Ukraine, they invited Finland and Sweden to join the Alliance, and they unveiled a new NATO Strategic Concept. Alliance members must now translate words into deeds. They must move from deterrence by reinforcement to deterrence by denial. They must bolster their resilience to disruptive forces. They need to offer Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and other partners what they need to defend themselves. They must address the China challenge. And they must rebalance transatlantic defense burdens by boosting European capabilities.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

1393. NATO: The Importance of Activism in the Mediterranean Scenario

Author:
Lorenzo Somigli
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The secure defense of NATO members does not depend on the Kyiv frontline; the southern flank is the most unguarded. This paper deals with the Mediterranean, a closed sea without borders which globalized before globalization, examining some strategic alternatives for Western allies. The Mediterranean is a point of contact, a diaphragm, and a battlefield. In addition, the central Mediterranean is a relevant area where Russia and China have their foot in the door because of the disengagement of France and Italy and the lack of attention of NATO. It is precisely on this weaker frontier that NATO must relaunch its commitment and presence. Defending marine spaces determines the continent’s safety. So, losing the Mediterranean can be disastrous. And finally, it examines Italian policy in the Mediterranean to date and the reasons why Italy can and must correct the strabismus of the USA, which is completely looking at the Indo-Pacific, and of imagines a peripheral Europe without politics.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Activism
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

1394. Change an Continuity in NATO's Nuclear Priorities

Author:
Spenser A. Warren
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
NATO’s new Strategic Concept highlights areas of change and continuity in nuclear priorities. These priorities will be driven by a combination of global and domestic political factors. In this article, I argue that the continued threat posed by Russia, the growth of the anti-nuclear movement in Europe, the rise of China, and the emergence of new nuclear technologies will drive NATO nuclear priorities for the foreseeable future. Russian aggression drives continuity in NATO nuclear priorities, as Russia has been, and will remain, the primary threat to NATO security. Meanwhile, the other factors will combine to force changes to NATO nuclear priorities and policies.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

1395. The Abraham Accords - Israel and the Middle East - What Next?

Author:
Eyal Zisser
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The signing of the Abraham Accords in September 2020 was a turning point in Israel’s standing in the Middle East. The accords created a positive atmosphere that helped promote regional cooperation in security and the economy. This positive change does not, however, provide an answer to some of the fundamental challenges that Israel is facing, which cast their shadows on the entire region, such as the Iranian threat - Tehran’s regional ambitions and its efforts to gain nuclear capabilities; but first and foremost, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which is getting further and further away from a solution, and may flare up and damage regional stability and hinder the progress in Israeli-Arab relations, which was achieved following the signing of the Abraham accords.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

1396. As Israel Looks East, The Gulf is Both a Way Station and a Destination

Author:
Gerald M. Feiestein
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Israelis and Gulf Arabs became closer amid shared fears of an aggressive and powerful administration in Tehran, which boasted of its influence over four Arab capitals (Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sana’a). With the signing of the Abraham Accords, states on the periphery of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict decided that the benefits of establishing relations with Israel outweighed the risks. They reasoned that if they advocated for increased coordination between Israel and the Arab world, it would increase pressure on the Palestinians to negotiate with Israel. This article focuses on the regional factors that led to the signing of the Abraham Accords and carefully reviews this important historical document.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

1397. The Two-State Delusion

Author:
Efraim Karsh
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
In the 85 years since the evocation of the two-state solution (i.e., a Jewish state and a Palestinian Arab state living side by side in peace and security), not a single Palestinian Arab leader has ever evinced any true liking for the idea or acted in a way signifying an unqualified embrace of it. Allowing their anti-Jewish hatred and obsession with violence to get the better of them, Palestinian leaders have repeatedly dragged their hapless constituents into disastrous conflicts that culminated in their collective undoing and continued statelessness. So long as Palestinian society does not undergo a comprehensive transformation that will sweep the corrupt and oppressive PLO and Hamas regimes from power, eliminate endemic violence from political and social life, and teach the virtues of coexistence with Israel, the two-state solution will remain a pipe dream.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, State Building, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1398. Peace, Security, or the Economy? Israeli Narratives About the Abraham Accords

Author:
Maia Carter Hallward and Taib Biygautane
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
In 2020 several Arab states announced U.S.-brokered full normalization agreements with Israel, absent any explicit compromises on Israel’s side vis-à-vis the Palestinians, a significant shift from traditionally held positions. While several of these states already had informal security, intelligence, and trade relations with Israel and, except for Sudan, were never at war with Israel, these agreements represented a significant shift in historical Arab-Israeli relations and thus required discursive justification to a range of audiences, including the Arab and Israeli publics. This article looks specifically at how the Abraham Accords were framed in the Israeli press and takes an initial look at the extent to which the Accords have impacted Israel’s economic and security situation.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

1399. Selective Reconciliation: The Rapprochement Between Israel and the Gulf Monarchies

Author:
Zoltan Barany
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The September 2020 Abraham Accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain was the culmination of a multi-year process. Later two other Arab monarchies, Morocco, and Jordan jointed them in improving their relations with the Jewish State while the remaining Gulf Cooperation Council members opted not to join the Accords. This article focuses on Gulf Kingdoms and argues that the improvement in Israeli-Arab relations is explained by a growing realization that in Iran, both sides have a common enemy; the failings of America’s Middle East policy; the anticipated economic and security benefits to be gained from improved relations; and the diminished importance of the Palestinian issue for Arab societies and governments.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Jordan, and Morocco

1400. Military Coups in Africa: A Continuation of Politics by Other Means?

Author:
Nana Amoateng
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The military has been an important institution for protecting States from external threats since antiquity. In fulfilling this fundamental role, military institutions have also posed security risks to their own governments, given that the ‘ability to use coercive force, though necessary to defend the nation against threats, creates the danger that the military will turn its weapons on the very regime that empowered its existence’.[1] Military personnel can fuel civil conflicts and undermine the stability of political regimes mostly in States with loose political control of the military. As Douglass North, John Wallis and Barry Weingast have argued, ‘Societies experiencing a civil war, by definition, do not have consolidated control of the military’.[2] In Africa, military institutions have, on one hand, helped to protect States from both internal and external threats, including local insurgencies. On the other hand, they have destabilised several political regimes through coup d’états. Military coups – ‘when the military, or a section of the military, turns its coercive power against the apex of the state, establishes itself there, and the rest of the state takes its orders from the new regime’[3] – have been relatively common in post-independent African States,[4] thereby raising several issues, including how to understand the relationship between politics and military coups. This article contributes to the discussion by highlighting how coups are a continuation of politics by other means, particularly in West Africa.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Leadership, Coup, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa