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252. Democratizing International Relations
- Author:
- Antonio de Aguiar Patriota
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Former UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali deserves to be remembered for his defense of the application of democratic principles to the international order. Today, the multipolarity of the contemporary world can help further Botrous-Ghali’s vision
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, United Nations, Democracy, Multilateralism, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
253. Strategic Survival in Syria
- Author:
- Omar Abu Layla
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- How Russia and Iran maintain their grip in Syria under the shadows of the Ukraine war
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Conflict, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, and Syria
254. Fortune and Hazard for Algeria
- Author:
- Zine Labidine Ghebouli
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- War in Ukraine has brought new cash flow to Algiers, but the state must walk an ever-narrowing path to maintain its non-alignment
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Algeria
255. The Putin Doctrine: What is it? The Russian Strategic Issue and the Enlarged National Security
- Author:
- Jose Alexandre Altahyde Hage
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- One can mention that this essay is only a contribution for an urgent issue in International Relations that is igniting debates in part of the academic community and the press in general, Russian expansionism and its conception of international security that, in our view, can be defined as enlarged national security. For Moscow, the dividing line between the international and the domestic whereas considering this issue is very thin4. This is why it is not a part of our objective to exhaust such a broad and complex topic, but to present some of its features.The period analysed in this article begins in 1991, with the demise of the Soviet Union, till January 2022, that marks the beginning of military exercises in some parts of Ukraine, namely the Donbass region, promoted by Putin ́s government. Our theoretical and methodological framework is based on classical and contemporary geopolitical literature, Halford Mackinder and Zbigniew Brzezinski, and International Relations realist thinkers such as Henry Kissinger and John Mearsheimer. Nevertheless, that does not mean that we will not be able to reference some liberal authors, such as Francis Fukuyama and Joseph Stiglitz.Apart from this Introduction, our essay is divided as such: a first part in which we propose a brief review of the concept of doctrine, as used by interstate politics and the State ́s national power principle. Following, we present an analysis of the Putin Doctrine, seen as both a result and as a drive for Moscow ́s revisionism in the face of the current geopolitical balance. In the third part, we examine some passages of the 1990s and of this emerging system, as an era of globalization, liberalization and “shock therapy” that disturbed the Russian quantum. Last, but not least, in our Final Thoughts some reflections will be brought.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
256. Political Analysis of the Purchase and technology Transfer Process for Gropen Fighters
- Author:
- Francisco Porto Junior and Marco Antonio Alves
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- This article aims to present a descriptive study from a qualitative perspective through a bibliographical analysis, according to Coutinho (2014), which aims to discuss the political process of purchase and Technology Transfer (TT) of GRIPEN NG fighters. For this, we resort to the study of the decision-making process involving interrelationships between the main actors, consensus, interests and values. The goals is to present some reflections about the results of the political game that had taken place during the FHC, Lula and Dilma governments, to verify their relationship with the neoliberal political-social project and its actors in the international sphere. As a guide for this study, questions are presented, which must be answered throughout the text referring to political actors: Who were these actors? How did political actors act? What are the reasons for their actions?
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
257. The East Mediterranean Gas Forum: Convergence of Regional and Energy Security Concerns
- Author:
- Stefy Joseph and Aneeta Thomas Peedikayil
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- As energy insecurity remains an imminent characteristic of energy security, it can simultaneously influence the securitization of non-energy referent objects in other sectors (Adamides and Odysseas 2015). This leads one to examine the geopolitical underpinnings behind the formation of the EMGF which by and large has affected the region as a whole. Egypt, the region’s star player has always played a fundamental role in harbouring relations based on energy and regional security and hence its relations with Greece, Cyprus, Israel, France, Italy and the EU needs examination in the wake of the establishment of the EMGF. The EMGF has been kept as the central pillar in understanding the international political economy behind the energy and regional security convergences by the above-mentioned member states. The objective behind undertaking this study has been to point out the inadequacies in establishing the EMGF which has inevitably shaped the geopolitics of the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
258. United States Foreign Policy Towards Jordan From the Political and Security Dimensions from 1990 to 2017
- Author:
- Ala Alkhawaldeh and Ayman Hayajneh
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- Foreign policy cannot be dissociated from what we call the theory of international relations (Holsti, 2015). Relations between Jordan and the United States go back to 1949 when diplomatic relations were first established. The United States contributed to providing economic and military assistance to Jordan for the first time since 1951 and 1957, respectively, and has continued until now. The United States and Jordan share the common goals of a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace in the Middle East and to end violent extremism that threatens the security of Jordan, the region, and the world at large. The peace process and counterterrorism between the two countries aid American interests. The United States has helped Jordan maintain its stability and prosperity through military assistance and close political cooperation (Bush, 2009).This study examines the United States foreign policy towards Jordan from 1990 to 2017. This period witnessed important regional and international political events that significantly impacted American foreign policy in the Arab region and the United States - Jordan in particular. The political events covered in the study have the greatest impact on the development or decline of relations between the two countries in terms of politically and security aspects.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
259. The Foreign Policy of Post-Revolutionary Iran: Expediency at the Crossroad of Suprra-Nationalism and Soverignty
- Author:
- Hamoon Khelghat-Doost
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- The direction of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s foreign policy has been a source of argument among scholars since the establishment of the revolutionary regime in 1979. Iran’s foreign policy just like its revolution is still a mystery to many researchers as it is difficult to find an appropriate theoretical framework for it. Revolution and how revolutionary states such as China and Cuba view the world and build their foreign relations with other nations have been long discussed in the works of prominent scholars including Leng (1972), Armstrong (1993), Walt (1996), Halliday (2002), and Doma-Nguez & Domínguez (2009). However, what makes the foreign policy of revolutionary Iran different from other revolutionary states (mostly Marxist revolutions) and, therefore, more confusing to study, is the Shi’a Islamic nature of it.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
260. The Belt and Road Initiative: Dynamics for Latin America and the Caribbean Region
- Author:
- Anurag Tripathi, Abhishek R.L., and Arun Teja
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- To examine the challenges and risks arising from the Belt and Road Initiative, this article, in its initial section undertakes a case study of Venezuela in explaining the probable debt-trap situation arising in the Latin American region. Following it, the next section examines the risks arising from BRI from the perspective of dependency theory. It is observed that the US has taken the Latin American region for granted. However, China appears to encroach into what the US considers as its backyard. With this hindsight, China’s increasing involvement in the region is dichotomously analyzed to ponder whether it is a strategy to gain influence or an extension of peaceful rise in the third section. China’s post-pandemic investments in LAC have been analyzed to enhance the argument of a tussle between the US and China. This provides a clear picture of how the two global economic giants are scrambling their money to sustain their influence over LAC. Finally, digital geopolitics has also been considered in explaining the risks and challenges of BRI. It is observed that without any data regulation regime currently across the world, would end up LAC states into what we call data-trap. As all the above is considered, it cannot be ignored that the future of geopolitics is no more validly explained through hegemonic stability theory or hierarchical structures. It is either going to be a horizontally varied power poles anchored to the regional institutions or going back to the idea of sovereignty as the main concept
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South America, and Venezuela
261. East Vs. West: A New Cold War?
- Author:
- Richard Sakwa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- Cold War has returned to dominate international politics. Expectations that the end of the Cold War in 1989 would lead to a more inclusive and comprehensive peace seems to be practically failed, and instead, by 2014, the centenary of the start of the First World War, Europe was once again wracked by conflict. On the one side, the U.S.-led Political West shaped by the Cold War remained the main protagonist. In contrast, on the other hand, a much-weakened Russia took the place of the former Soviet Union, now accompanied by a China intent on restoring its status as a great power. The article examines why a new cold war emerges again, and analyses how such a ‘Cold War II’ differs from the original.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
262. IMperial or Colonial: The War is Fought Over The Soviet Past an A Broken Relationship
- Author:
- Li Bennich-Bjorkman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- Russia is trying, through its bombs, attacks, and brutality, to erase what Ukraine was. Therefore, it is a war effort to keep remembering how Ukraine in peace looked like, how it smelled, tasted, and felt. And to never forget that this is a war against Ukraine, in its own right. Not as a representative of the West, and not as a representative of democracy. But because Ukraine is of such importance to Russia, that a break between the two is unthinkable for Putin. That was what Leonid Kravchuk, the Ukrainian president, realized already in 1991. He, and Ukrainian leaders after him, tried to protect their territory while at the same time reassuring Russia that relations could still be friendly. But Russia has never changed in a similar way
- Topic:
- Imperialism, Military Strategy, Colonialism, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
263. The West Versus The Rest: The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine And The Crisis Of The "Post-Western" Order
- Author:
- Ziya Önis
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine intensified the defining conflict of the new age, the conflict between democratic and authoritarian capitalism. The unified Western response to the war highlighted the revitalization of the democratic club of Western states and their allies (G7 plus). Another critical implication of the War has been that a clear divide has emerged between “the West” and “the Rest” in their reactions to the War. The Russian War on Ukraine signals the beginnings of a new phase of the post-Western world, where territorial conquests could be considered the new normal, paving the way for further military confrontations in a conflict-ridden World.
- Topic:
- Capitalism, Liberal Order, Conflict, International Order, and World System
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
264. Russia, Ukraine, and Lasting Peace in Europe
- Author:
- Nicolai N. Petro
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- Among the many competing narratives that drive the war in Ukraine, the healing of the Ukrainian people themselves is often overlooked. That is because current Western policy overlooks the Other Ukraine, whose disagreement with the policies of the Ukrainian government since 2014 led up to this conflict. The Western response to Russia’s invasion has been tailored to punishing Russia, but not necessarily to healing the domestic tension within Ukraine. This article suggests that only a reconciliation within Ukrainecan bring lasting social harmony to Ukraine and peace to Europe as a whole.
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
265. East-West Relations: A New Cold War?
- Author:
- Ilter Turan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- The Cold War bipolar order was characterized by two camps isolated from each other, competing along four dimensions: global governance, security, economics, and ideology. The end of the Cold War, with the Soviet Bloc collapsing, did not produce a U.S.-dominated unipolar but a multi-centered world. The Americans, losing power and influence and the Russians to restore their superpower status have been trying to reconstruct bipolarity. If reconstructed China, not Russia, would likely constitute the other pole, an outcome Russia does not want. Economic relations and Chinese disinterest currently prevent a bipolar world like the one we have left behind. We may be moving toward a multi-centered world with many unpredictable aspects, including armed conflicts such an order may entail.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Europe
266. Small States and the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Anders Wivel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- The War in Ukraine signals a return to the sphere of influence politics and great powers’ use of military instruments against their weaker neighbors. The consequences for small states are negative. Although some small states will find new opportunities for hedging and brinkmanship, most small states will see their chances of shaping international agendas reduced as they increasingly focus on defensive aims. To meet these challenges small states must work together to promote their shared interests: 1) A modus vivendi between the great power, which minimizes the risk of great power war as well as the annexation and invasion of smaller states, 2) a rule-based international order; 3) a relaunch the United Nations as the central arena for debates on international society among sovereign states.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Superpower
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
267. U.S. Foreign Policy an the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- James A. Russell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- This essay assesses the impact of the war in Ukraine on American foreign policy. The thesis provided here is that the war in Ukraine must be viewed as a painful but maybe necessary shock therapy that has helped to relieve the residual hangover from America’s two-decade-long, ill-advised war on terror and the lost wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In parallel, the war has served as a vehicle for the reinvigoration of national grand strategy and the foreign policy that provides the vital connective tissue between ends, ways, and means. In this trinity, the foreign policy represents an instrumental tool to connect the assumptions that undergird grand strategy to the practical, real-world of international politics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
268. The Role of Democracy Discourse in the Emerging "New Cold War"
- Author:
- Emre Demir and Sirma Altun
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- In the first three decades after China initiated reform and opening-up policies in 1978, its relations with the United States (U.S.) improved steadily. However, in the post-2007/2008 global financial crisis period, both countries’ attitudes toward each other began to change. Particularly since the Trump administration, as the U.S. started to define China as its main competitor, their bilateral relations deteriorated further. As a result, scholars, diplomats, and politicians worldwide began to talk about the emergence of a new Cold War between China and the U.S., encompassing economic, ideological, military, and political aspects. The ideological aspect of this emerging “new Cold War” revolves around the discourse of democracy.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Hegemony, Democracy, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
269. West Vs. Non-West: A New Cold War?
- Author:
- Greg Simons
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- There is a noticeable and growing evolution of the global geopolitical balance of power and influence in the 21st century’s system of international relations. The current hegemon, the unipolar United States, and the political system of Western liberalism that supports it, is under great strain and is in a state of relative decline. The challenger is a non-Western-centric multipolar order, which consists of a wide variety of countries spanning the globe, including what is referred to as the Global South. This ‘crisis’ of the Western order has prompted a tangible and informational response from the U.S. and its system, to defend their privileged hegemony and to deter the rise of alternative systems of power and influence in international relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Cold War, Hegemony, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
270. The Impact of the Ukrainian-Russian War on Rwanda
- Author:
- Jonathan R. Beloff
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- The current Ukrainian-Russian war has far greater-reaching effects than what is typically reported in much of the international news media. The war has significantly impacted African development, which was already harmed during the global Covid-19 pandemic. With the pandemic seemingly over, African nations such as Rwanda hoped for increased economic development. However, the current war in Ukraine sparked increased fuel and food prices throughout the continent, which has impacted expected growth rates. This article reviews the war’s impact on the central African nation of Rwanda. It illustrates Rwandan anger about the economic implications of the war and the frustration from the nation’s inability to stop its effects.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Rwanda
271. Will Turkiye Find Herself A Place in the New World Order?
- Author:
- Oğul Tuna
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- Türkiye has been a challenging actor in the regional and global politics since the early 2010s, which relies on its imperial past and soft power. This paper argues that Türkiye has embraced a conventional foreign policy principle, pursuing the balance of power, to adapt to the new multipolar world in the contemporary period, which can be defined as “the new nineteenth century.” The country can only exploit its power and resilience to the utmost extent after realizing its limitations to accomplish its regional and international foreign policy goals. Then, it might emerge as a dependable crisis mediator and a significant player in world politics.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Liberal Order, Strategic Interests, and World System
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
272. From East to North: New Frontiers for the EU-NATO Arctic Defence
- Author:
- Luca Cinciripini
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- After a geopolitical phase of peace and international cooperation, the Arctic is witnessing renewed military tensions, particularly between Russia, NATO, and European Union (EU) member countries. The multilateral governance that has so far governed the fate of the Arctic is being challenged by the confrontation between Russia and the West. In addition, climate warming opens up new trade routes. It provides access to immense deposits of raw materials, accelerating competition among actors partly by including external players such as China. To assess the future trajectory of European defense governance on the northern flank, it is necessary to view the Arctic and Baltic as a single region in light of common critical factors.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, European Union, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
273. Concerns for Food Security in the Mediterranean and Turkiye
- Author:
- Gun Unal
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resumed after a hiatus of many months, it prompted the European Union and 17 other countries to cut off relations with Russia and Belarus. Most of the goods and food that people in the West use now come from foreign plantations and factories. The length of the war will significantly affect the extent to which it disrupts global food supplies and the intensity of the resulting food crisis. A symptom of this movement, and a warning against overreliance on Russian energy supplies, is the European Political Community. While the article’s focus is on the potential impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on food supplies throughout the world, it also serves to remind readers that there is more to a crisis than a shortage of Russian oil and gas.
- Topic:
- Security, Natural Resources, Food, and Food Security
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Mediterranean
274. Exploring the Russian Perspective on the War in Ukraine: Demography's Power and Ukraine's Uniqueness
- Author:
- Aybars Arda Kilicer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- Western officials and media have portrayed Russia as a rogue state that seeks to undermine the fundamental foundations of the Western lifestyle, which are based on democratic and liberal principles, especially more since the invasion of the remaining Ukrainian territories began on 24 February 2022. According to this perspective, Russia allegedly launched its strike to prevent Ukraine from joining the club of liberal nations. This move would have been a clear message to any other post-Soviet countries, further strengthening Russian control over them. It would be unfair to completely dismiss this argument, yet, justifying the simplification of the procedure and the continuation of conflict on these reasons goes much beyond presenting the facts. A thorough examination of the many issues involved is necessary to comprehend the Russian motivations for the ongoing war. This calls for an in-depth analysis of the Crimean Question, focusing on how Russia uses demographics in its foreign strategy. In addition, within the broader context of The Russian World (Russkiy Mir) Vision, it is crucial to understand the relevance of Russia’s unique perspective on Ukraine. The objective of this study is to provide an analytical framework concentrating on these apparently most visible factors for Russia’s willingness to raise tensions in Eastern Europe further and invade the remaining territory under the sovereignty of Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
275. A "Civil Association" Between the European Union and Russia
- Author:
- Enes Ozcan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- Contradicting political worldviews of the EU and Russia contribute to their conflictual relations much more than the attention currently given to this facet of the relations. Each of their solidarist worldviews creates an ideological wall severing their communication that is essential for possible peaceful solutions. However, shifting toward a pluralist worldview inspired by conceptual tools of the English School and Michael Oakeshott’s theory of civil association could be an alternative to the current situation of conflict. Building on this theoretical framework, we also attempt to explain the significance of Türkiye’s mediation efforts along the way and present a constructive criticism of today’s norms-based international law.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
276. Why Romania is a NATO "Model Ally?"
- Author:
- Petre Roman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- NATO’s eastward expansion was a fundamental geopolitical process that allowed countries to be prepared for the worst, the Russian revanche, by pursuing the best, the most successful path for democracy. Romania, which emerged from the tremendous communist Ceausescu regime, strongly wanted NATO membership and, after the first encouraging meetings in 1990, officially entered in 2004. However, Romania has been already back then contributed to many Western missions. Due to its geographical position, Romania is central to all NATO objectives. Now, Romania and Poland are the pivots of NATO’s defensive complex in the “postsoviet space”: Poland protects the Baltic Sea, Romania the Black Sea, where the Russian old-imperial appetites remain; Romania still defends the precious grain corridor. Furthermore, Romania is a “model ally”. There is a solid pro-Atlantic and pro-American sentiment in the country.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Romania
277. Towards a Fuzzy World Order: What Role for NATO
- Author:
- Richard Higgott and Simon Reich
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- Bi-polarity, multi-polarity, the end of globalization, or Cold War v. 2.0. New explanations of world order abound. Often, they are asserted rather than reasoned by pundits looking for their 15 minutes of fame. This paper is much more modest. It eschews grand statements about world order. Rather we demonstrate that the future is far less clear cut and predetermined. Yes, a global binary is emerging around U.S.-China competition, but it is what we describe as fuzzy bifurcation. If our analysis is accurate, then it affects the behavior of other actors differently than a tight bi-polar system. In this paper we look at the implications of a fuzzy bifurcation of world order for that most important of alliances – NATO.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
278. Rebuilding "Greater Russia" and the Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Roger E Kanet
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- This article examines Vladimir Putin's commitment to rebuilding "Greater Russia" and its implications in the context of the invasion of Ukraine. Putin's vision involves re-establishing the former Soviet Union and extending Russian dominance beyond its borders, fueled by a belief in the historical and cultural ties between Russians and Ukrainians. The article explores Russia's assertive and unilateralist approach to international politics, its military interventions in neighboring countries, and the justifications used to expand Moscow's control over former Soviet territories. Highlighting the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and its devastating consequences, the author raises questions about Putin's long-term goals and whether they involve recreating "Greater Russia" or countering perceived threats from the West and neighboring states. The author contends that despite other factors that might play a role in influencing Russian policy, the re-establishment of Moscow’s influence/ control over as much post-Soviet territory as possible – the recreation of “Greater Russia” -- is the most important role – not NATO expansion, although it no doubt was an issue. If the Russians are successful in dominating Ukraine, other former Soviet areas – for example, the Baltics – are likely to become targets of future expansion.
- Topic:
- Security, Imperialism, Hegemony, Power, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
279. On Designating the 14-Mile Area in the Cooperation Agreement: Missteps and Implications for Peace in South Sudan
- Author:
- Garang Yach James, James Alic Garang, and Joseph Geng Akech
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Using a literature-based review methodology, this paper examines the questions, fairness, and implications relating to the inclusion of the 14-Mile Area in the September 2012 Cooperation Agreement signed between Sudan and South Sudan. It finds that previous colonial arrangements and the subsequent inclusion of this area under the rubric of disputed territories muddied the waters, thus giving a wrong impression to the public about what was originally unintended and sanctioned. Second, it finds that the Malual Dinka community remains justified in arguing that the 14-Mile Area is undisputed. The fact that Arab nomads from Sudan have been permitted to enjoy access to the grazing and cross-border trade benefits does not confer right of ownership over the strip. Seen from this context, the article examines the implications of including the 14-Mile Area in the Cooperation Agreement and arrives at policy recommendations designed to ensure community resource management and investments in the area. Thus, the article advances not just community-to-community peace, but also regional peace and stability. It concludes by beseeching the governments of both Sudan and South Sudan to exclude the 14-Mile Area from any discussion of disputed areas of international borders. The article advocates that local communities should be given an unencumbered opportunity to manage issues of access to grazing areas by Sudanese nomads based on community-to-community negotiations, which have always been the tradition.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan
280. Civil Society as a Transitional Justice Litigation Actor in Africa
- Author:
- Khanyisela Moyo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- This article examines the input into the transitional justice discourse by civil society as a litigation actor in postcolonial Africa. It does not analyse all civil society litigation in transitional contexts in Africa, but rather uses some examples to point to different kinds of contributions. From the examples provided, one can affirm that civil society organisations (CSOs) are significant transitional justice litigation actors. This relates to civil and criminal litigation. With regard to criminal litigation, CSOs participate in formal processes in several ways, including pointing out due process flaws and turning over to the prosecution evidence of violations that they would have gathered during the conflict. Also, in the context of impunity and inadequate government policies, some CSOs have filled the accountability gap by resorting to civil suits and regional, exported and international litigation. These examples may offer useful insights into contexts where transitional justice initiatives are undertaken where there is no transition. In addition, the experiences may question whether compensation to victims of state-orchestrated violations of human rights which is achieved through non-governmental organisations’ initiatives constitutes transitional justice.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Transitional Justice, and Litigation
- Political Geography:
- Africa
281. The Colonial Legacy and Transitional Justice in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Author:
- Shirambere Philippe Tunamsifu
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) experienced a brutal colonial regime and a segregated judicial system with a weak educational system used to support colonial policies and a post-colonial legal framework designed to avoid prosecution for colonial-era crimes. Under such a regime, a broad range of violations were registered including about 10 million people who were killed. In the aftermath of the colonial era, the post-colonial regime did not sufficiently redress the situation through prosecution or meaningful reforms. Consequently, most of those atrocities remained unpunished. This study lists the main reasons for why the colonial-era crimes were not investigated which are linked to the gaps in the legal framework, the configuration of the judiciary, and an informal agreement between the DRC and the Belgian governments.
- Topic:
- Transitional Justice, Colonialism, and Judiciary
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo
282. Impact of the Church on Conflict Transformation of Political Crises at Community Level: A Case Study of two Church Denominations in Dzivarasekwa, Harare
- Author:
- Angela Shoko
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- This study, based on Lederach’s conflict transformation (CT) theory, analyses the participation of the local church in CT of political crises in Zimbabwe at the grassroots level – from 2005 to 2020. It compares the CT interventions of one Pentecostal church denomination and of one African Independent Church denomination in the Dzivarasekwa suburb of Harare. A convergent parallel mixed methods design was used. SPSS software was used to analyse quantitative data while the NVivo application was used for qualitative data analysis. One key finding is that both denominations believe CT entails community engagement. Major challenges to local churches’ CT participation include financial constraints, repressive laws and church executives’ fear of victimisation. The study concludes that the impact of the local churches is low because their interventions are limited to congregation members and their immediate neighbours. Another conclusion is that CT is politicised in Zimbabwe, which restricts effective church participation. The study makes some recommendations to address this.
- Topic:
- Religion, Transitional Justice, Conflict, Christianity, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
283. Emerging Local Voices and New Possibilities Toward Attaining Sustainable Peace in Bawku, north-eastern Ghana
- Author:
- Aminu Dramani, Sebastian Angzoorokuu Paalo, and Samuel Adu-Gyamfi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Globally, conflicts continue to change dynamics and increase in complexity, weakening the potential of various peacebuilding interventions, especially in the Global South. The Bawku crisis is a notable protracted conflict in Ghana and West Africa, which attracts enormous scholarly debates, especially on how to attain sustained peace in the area. However, there remains some important dynamics that are not significantly explored in the discussions on achieving sustained peace in Bawku. Drawing on in-depth field interviews, we present a new perspective on chieftaincy and landownership (and use), shifting from absolute control to a shared system, aimed at potentially resolving conflicts. The proposed shared political and landownership system also reveals important weaknesses relating to existing court verdicts and scholarly advocacy for a parallel system or the resettlement of the Mamprusi outside of the area. However, this empirical contribution offers a new possibility to resolve the Bawku crisis and similar challenges in Ghana and Africa.
- Topic:
- Transitional Justice, Peace, Land, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
284. The Political Ecology of Farmer-Herder Conflict in Ghana: A Case Study of the Kwahu Afram Plains South District
- Author:
- Bernard Okoampah Otu and Kwasi Sarfo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Farmer-herder conflict is an age-old phenomenon, which is widely spread in the West African sub-region. Current studies on the Ghanaian farmer-herder conflict have emphasised the land-related conflicts between indigenous farmers and nomadic herders. It has focused especially on environmental scarcity and climate change approaches. However, this study adopts the political ecology framework to highlight land conflicts between migrant farmers and nomadic herders, two migrant groups that are considered “strangers” to the Kwahu Afram Plains District. The study contributes to the broader debates on farmer-herder conflict. It provides contrary evidence with regard to the popular notion in literature and theory about the prevalence of land insecurity among nomadic herders. The study argues that migrant farmers in the study area experience more land insecurity compared to the nomadic herders. This is because of their history of immigration, their relationship with the Kwahu landowners, which is driving the escalating cost of accessing land, and disputes between landowning groups.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Land, Farmers, Political Ecology, and Herders
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
285. Africa’s Quest for Reform of the United Nations Security Council: A Just Cause Curbed by Unrealistic Proposals
- Author:
- Niguse Mandefero Alene, Mohammed Seid Ali, and Kebede Yimam Tadesse
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The debate around viable global governance has become increasingly topical, particularly from the perspective of countries in the Global South. Concerning Africa, despite the continent’s quest to reform the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), existing research has failed to comprehensively address the topic. Consequently, this article explores the arguments and challenges surrounding Africa’s drive to secure a permanent voice in the UNSC. It argues that despite the enduring legacies of colonialism, neocolonial interventions, and being the primary concern of the UNSC agenda, Africa’s claim for fair representation in the Council remains. The article attempts to address the research gap and contribute to the existing debate by examining why Africa has failed to be represented in the UNSC. Africa’s collective initiative towards reforming the UN system is instrumental in ensuring inclusive and sustainable global governance. Nonetheless, Africa’s insistence on immediate and full veto power for new entrants and its demand for representation merely through numbers inside the UN are unfeasible.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Reform, Peace, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Africa
286. Civil War between the Ethiopian Government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front: A Challenge to Implement the Responsibility to Protect Doctrine
- Author:
- Israel Nyaburi Nyadera and Census Osedo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- How does the 2020–2022 civil war in Ethiopia contribute to our understanding of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine? This study seeks to revisit the debate over the effectiveness of the R2P doctrine in the wake of increased intrastate conflicts. The objective is to assess the dilemma that arises with the implementation of R2P when governments are involved in the conflict and the international community is reluctant or unable to intervene. The study adopts the systematic review approach (PRISMA) to identify the shortcomings, trends, and debates around R2P. It uses the Ethiopian civil war to contribute further to the existing body of literature. The paper finds that, indeed, the R2P doctrine is facing serious challenges with its implementation. It shows that when governments fail to acknowledge the other actors as legitimate combatants and instead describe them as terrorist groups, it becomes difficult to uphold the R2P doctrine. The paper also identifies a lack of leadership and coordinated efforts at regional and international levels as contributing factors, which further undermine the effectiveness of R2P. The paper concludes that the Ethiopian civil war exposes serious shortcomings in the R2P doctrine that need to be reviewed and reformed urgently. It proposes the adoption of a systems-thinking approach that can streamline the actors and processes of response during civil wars.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Human Rights, Conflict, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray
287. Transferring Policy: The African Union’s Protection of Civilians Policy in Peacekeeping Missions in Somalia and South Sudan
- Author:
- Andrew E. Yaw Tchie and Liezelle Kumalo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The African Union’s (AU’s) doctrine underlying Peace Support Operations (PSOs) highlights the fact that the AU should take the lead in providing political direction for all AU PSOs. This includes mainstreaming the standards and operating procedures applicable to the Protection of Civilians (PoC). The PoC guidelines mandate the AU to support and complement the efforts of the host state by enhancing its capacity to secure civilians and prevent abuse against them. The guidelines have allowed the AU to develop and grow its institutional capacity and emerge as the continent’s leading institution. It provides fragile member states with technical support through African led and AU-mandated missions (crafting the concept of operations, training and implementation and procedures for peace operations). However, little is known about how the AU transfers its PoC policy to member states during peacekeeping missions. This paper assesses the institutional capacity of the AU and its ability to influence specific national PoC policies and approaches through AU PSO and United Nations Peacekeeping Operations (UN PKOs). The paper highlights that although the AU has made progress in PoC policy, it has not been implemented effectively and practically in South Sudan and Somalia, despite being a significant priority for the organisation.
- Topic:
- Peacekeeping, Civilians, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Somalia, and South Sudan
288. Responding to Netflix's Stateless Series: Misrecognition and Missed Opportunities
- Author:
- Lindsey N. Kingston
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- The six episode Netflix series, Stateless, represents a missed opportunity to engage in vital public framing of statelessness. Rather than focusing on the lack of legal nationality, the series falsely equates statelessness with other rights issues central to migration detention. In this collaborative work between a stateless activist and an academic researcher, the authors use Stateless as a starting point for a broader conversation about words, definitions and representation. First, statelessness has partially emerged on the international human rights agenda, yet film and television attention could further foster mainstream understanding of this oft-ignored issue. Second, a critical assessment of the Stateless series highlights how it does (and mostly does not) engage with the issue of statelessness. Third, reflections and recommendations relate to why the series’ title is so problematic, what the media can learn from stateless people and what this conversation means for advocacy.
- Topic:
- Mass Media, Social Media, Advocacy, and Stateless Population
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
289. The Racialised Non-Being of Non-Citizens: Slaves, Migrants and the Stateless
- Author:
- Samuel Martinez
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- Proponents of barring the children of undocumented immigrants from birthright citizenship allege that the United States (‘US’) Constitution’s 14th Amendment was intended to give full citizenship to former slaves and their progeny, and not to benefit the children of foreign-born people. A real-world example that illustrates the dangers of so restricting birthright citizenship is the Dominican Republic, where legal measures have already excluded the children of out-of-status immigrants (who are mostly of Haitian ancestry) from eligibility for birthright citizenship. The effect of this has not been ethnically cleansing Haitian descendants from the Dominican Republic so much as confining them within the country as a stateless underclass of people. The Dominican case therefore shows that US opponents of birthright citizenship for the children of out-of-status non-citizens must answer to the danger that their proposal would create a legally approved hereditary underclass on US soil, more than a century after the abolition of chattel slavery.
- Topic:
- Migration, Slavery, Stateless Population, and Systemic Racism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
290. Great Power Politics: The Indo-Pacific, Southeast Asia, and the Global South
- Author:
- Kei Koga
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- 2023 marks the 50th Year of ASEAN-Japan Friendship and Cooperation, and there are expectations that their relationship will be upgraded to a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” Given the good diplomatic, security, and economic relations between Japan and Southeast Asian states, ties are likely to be strengthened. However, Japan is now taking a more competitive strategy toward China, as indicated in the three security documents issued in December 2022, while Southeast Asian states generally continued the same strategic posture by which they have good relations with all great powers in the Indo-Pacific region. Also, while Japan issued the “New Plan for the Free and Open Indo-Pacific” that emphasizes the “Global South,” it remained silent about ASEAN centrality and unity in the Indo-Pacific, and it was unclear what roles Japan expects ASEAN to play. Although both Japan and Southeast Asian states need to adjust their roles in the Indo-Pacific region, it remains to be seen whether the 50th anniversary becomes an opportunity for clarification.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Power Politics, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific
291. War and Peace for Moscow and Beijing
- Author:
- Yu Bin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Perhaps more than any other time in their respective histories, the trajectories of China and Russia were separated by choices in national strategy. A year into Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, the war bogged down into a stalemate. Meanwhile, China embarked upon a major peace offensive aimed at Europe and beyond. It was precisely during these abnormal times that the two strategic partners deepened and broadened relations as top Chinese leaders traveled to Moscow in the first few months of the year (China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, President Xi Jinping, and newly appointed Defense Minister Li Shangfu). Meanwhile, Beijing’s peace initiative became both promising and perilous as it reached out to warring sides and elsewhere (Europe and the Middle East). It remains to be seen how this new round of “Western civil war” (Samuel Huntington’s depiction of the 1648-1991 period in his provocative “The Clash of Civilizations?” treatise) could be lessened by a non-Western power, particularly after drone attacks on the Kremlin in early May.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia
292. The Return of Shuttle Diplomacy
- Author:
- Ji-Young Lee and Andy Lim
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- In March 2023, Japan and South Korea had a long-awaited breakthrough in their bilateral relations, which many viewed as being at the lowest point since the 1965 normalization. On March 16, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio held a summit in Tokyo and agreed to resume “shuttle diplomacy,” a crucial mechanism of bilateral cooperation that had been halted for about a decade. Behind the positive developments was President Yoon’s political decision on the issue of compensating wartime forced laborers. The two leaders took steps to bring ties back to the level that existed prior to actions in 2018 and 2019, which precipitated the downward spiral in their relationship. Japan decided to lift the export controls it placed on its neighbor following the South Korean Supreme Court ruling on forced labor in 2018. South Korea withdrew its complaint with the World Trade Organization on Japan’s export controls. Less than a week after the summit, Seoul officially fully restored the information sharing agreement (GSOMIA) that it had with Tokyo. They also resumed high-level bilateral foreign and security dialogues to discuss ways to navigate the changing international environment together as partners. The big question now is whether this trend of restoring and expanding bilateral cooperation would continue throughout and beyond the Yoon presidency. In South Korea, critics argue that his handling of the forced labor issue is not a lasting solution to historical issues with Japan. The breakthrough was not a product of any major change in South Korean public sentiment toward Japan’s past wrongdoings. Nor was it a product of changes in the Japanese position on outstanding bilateral historical and territorial issues. Both the Japanese and South Korean governments, however, feel the urgent need to cooperate for their own national security, and for economic reasons. Whether the advances in the first four months of 2023 will be short-lived or the start of a new partnership and reconciliation will likely depend on how much understanding they both show in seeing things from the other’s perspective and how willing they will be in accommodating the other’s political needs.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and South Korea
293. Deepening Suspicions and Limited Diplomacy
- Author:
- Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- China and South Korea began 2023 with the temporary imposition of tit-for-tat restrictions by both governments on travel to the other country after China lifted its zero-COVID policy. Although the restrictions proved temporary, they pointed to the reality of a sustained downward spiral in China-South Korea relations accompanied by increasingly strident public objections in Chinese media to the Yoon Suk Yeol administration’s steps to redouble South Korean alignment with the United States regarding Indo-Pacific strategy, supply chain resiliency, and shared values. South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs Park Jin’s congratulatory call to newly appointed Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Qin Gang on Jan. 9 was one of the few positive senior-level interaction between the two countries in early 2023; by the end of April, the main diplomatic interactions between China and South Korea had devolved into a dueling exchange of private demarches and public assertions that the other side had committed a “diplomatic gaffe.” As Yoon took steps to strengthen South Korean ties with NATO, stabilize relations with Japan, and upgrade efforts with the US to deter North Korea from continued nuclear development, Chinese criticisms of South Korea became increasingly ominous. They culminated in a stern Chinese diplomatic response to Yoon’s interview with Reuters on April 19 in which he characterized a possible cross-strait conflict between mainland China and Taiwan as a global security issue. Meanwhile, the 75th founding anniversary of North Korea’s Korean People’s Army (KPA) in February and China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) confirming Xi Jinping’s third term as president in March drove symbolic exchanges of support between Chinese party-state and military leaders and their North Korean counterparts. The continued lack of a unified UN response to North Korean missile provocations renewed calls for Chinese “responsibility” and “influence” and Beijing’s reassertions of Pyongyang’s own “insecurity.” The arrival of Chinese Ambassador to North Korea Wang Yajun in Pyongyang, delayed for two years following his appointment due to pandemic-related quarantines, may presage a broader opening for China-North Korea humanitarian exchanges alongside concerns about North Korea’s ongoing military development.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Trade, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and South Korea
294. North Cranks up Nukes—and Slams Down the Phone
- Author:
- Aidan Foster-Carter
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The first four months of 2023 brought no progress or respite in inter-Korean relations. Pyongyang sent no further drones into Southern airspace as it had in December, but continued to rattle Seoul with tests of advance weaponry and ever more lurid nuclear rhetoric. South Korea hardened its language and stance, with a restored emphasis on human rights in the North—now officially defined as an enemy once more. ROK President Yoon Suk Yeol also found enemies within: leftists who made contact with the DPRK in third countries were no longer ignored but prosecuted. More ominously, so were four top officials who served the previous president, Moon Jae-in, over how they handled two difficult inter-Korean incidents in 2019-20. Elsewhere, Seoul complained in vain about Pyongyang’s abuse of its assets in two defunct joint ventures: stealing some, destroying others. Soon after, the North stopped answering the phone. It is hard to see how North-South relations will improve, but all too easy to imagine them getting even worse.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
295. Confrontation Muted, Tensions Growing
- Author:
- David J. Keegan and Kyle Churchman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- As 2023 began, cross-Strait confrontation was muted. Travel began returning to pre-COVID levels across the Strait and between the mainland and Taiwan’s offshore islands. At China’s annual National People’s Congress, outgoing Premier Li Keqiang and reanointed President Xi Jinping eschewed inflammatory rhetoric about reunification with Taiwan. Taiwan and the US kept Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s transit of the US low-key. Tsai met House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California, deflecting the speaker’s expressed interest in visiting Taiwan and avoiding the destabilizing Chinese military exercises around Taiwan that followed Speaker Pelosi’s visit last August. Despite this calm, seeds of confrontation proliferated. China cut a communications cable to Taiwan’s offshore islands and announced a coast guard drill to inspect commercial shipping in the Taiwan Strait, both interpreted as practice for gray-zone coercion. China persuaded Honduras to sever its longstanding diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Taiwan increased its military budget and expanded training with US forces. Former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou visited China and met Chinese officials, endorsing the 1992 Consensus and signaling that the upcoming election campaign for Taiwan’s president will again offer two very different visions of Taiwan’s future relationship with mainland China.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Coercion, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
296. China Strengthens Regional Leadership Countering US Challenges
- Author:
- Robert G. Sutter and Chin-Hao Huang
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Southeast Asia featured prominently in Beijing’s increasingly strong international efforts to portray China as a source of strategic stability and economic growth with comprehensive global governance plans supportive of interests of developing countries and opposing the United States. These efforts intensified after the landmark 20th Party Congress in October and the 14th National People’s Congress in March. They were reinforced as Xi Jinping emerged from COVID restrictions and preoccupation with domestic matters to engage actively in summitry with leaders of Vietnam, Laos, the Philippines, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Singapore. China’s economic importance for regional countries grew as did its dominance over the contested South China Sea. Its show of force against Taiwan in April had little discernible impact on China-Southeast Asia relations, while notable US advances in military cooperation with the Philippines warranted Chinese warnings that escalated during the reporting period.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Leadership, Economic Growth, Strategic Stability, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Southeast Asia
297. Washington Zeroes in on Manila
- Author:
- Catharin Dalpino
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- With an apparent renaissance in the US-Philippine alliance, spurred by rising tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, the Biden administration ramped up diplomatic activity with Manila as the two countries moved toward an official visit from President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., in May. At the same time, the 42nd iteration of Cobra Gold, which returned to full strength for the first time since the 2014 coup in Bangkok, suggested momentum in the US-Thailand alliance, albeit with a lower profile. While the international environment continued to be roiled by US-China rivalry, the Russian war in Ukraine, and high food and commodity prices, Southeast Asia’s own internal turmoil was evident. The junta in Myanmar extended the state of emergency and stepped up aerial bombing of areas held by the opposition and armed ethnic groups. As Indonesia takes up the ASEAN chair, prospects for implementing the Five-Point Consensus Plan are dim, if not dead. Vietnam and Thailand began leadership transitions—Hanoi with an anti-corruption purge and Bangkok with the launch of general elections—while Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen continued to eviscerate the opposition ahead of his near-certain re-election in July. As Southeast Asian leaders work to grow their economies in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, competition among them to attract foreign domestic investment is intensifying, particularly in technology and electric vehicles. In the meantime, the region awaits the conclusion of negotiations for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which will offer insight into Washington’s vision of an economic order for the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
298. An Even Larger Role in Everything
- Author:
- Akhil Ramesh and Michael Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- On May 24, 2022, President Joe Biden met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Quad summit in Tokyo. According to the White House readout of the meeting, “The leaders reviewed the progress made in the US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership. They committed to deepen the Major Defense Partnership, encourage economic engagement that benefits both countries, and expand partnership on global health, pandemic preparedness, and critical and emerging technologies.” While such statements are often aspirational and lag in implementation, the first four months of 2023 show the renaissance in US-India ties to be real.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America
299. US-Korea Relations: Nuclear New Year
- Author:
- Mason Richey
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol has tried to make a priority of transforming the traditional US-South Korea military alliance into a “global, comprehensive strategic alliance” with increasing ambitions beyond hard security issues on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia in general. Yoon and his foreign policy team get an “A” for vision and effort—joining the NATO Asia-Pacific Four (AP4) and releasing an Indo-Pacific Strategy in 2022 are evidence. But, like Michael Corleone trying to go legit in The Godfather III, every time they make progress getting out, they get pulled back into the Peninsula. To wit, during the first trimester of 2023 Korean Peninsula security issues again commanded disproportionate attention from Seoul and Washington. The proximate cause for this dynamic is North Korea’s mafioso-in-chief, Kim Jong Un, who started 2023 with a January 1 missile launch and kept at it throughout the winter. This, of course, followed record-breaking 2022 North Korean missile tests and demonstrations, which totaled approximately 70 launches of around 100 projectiles. Given the near-zero prospects for North Korean denuclearization and the growing arsenal at Pyongyang’s disposal, it is understandable that any South Korean president would be distracted from interests further afield. The audacious nature of Yoon’s re-focusing on South Korean security was surprising and controversial, however. On January 11, apparently fed up with perceived South Korean vulnerability to its nuclear-armed consanguine, and perhaps irritated with the Biden administration’s slow realization of this South Korean sentiment, he made a pronouncement that no democratic leader in Seoul has ever made publicly before: he stated that South Korea—which benefits from US extended nuclear deterrence—could still consider acquiring its own nuclear weapons, if “North Korean provocations continued intensifying.” This set off a diplomatic kerfuffle that resonated—on both sides of the 38th parallel, as well as in Washington and Beijing—for much of the rest of the January-April reporting period. Given the provocative nature of Yoon’s statement, the South Korean presidential office later backtracked, “clarifying” that Yoon was simply expressing his “firm commitment to defending the nation” against North Korea’s nuclear threats, and while the “worst case scenario must be taken into consideration,” “the principle of abiding by the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty holds.” In any event, Washington took notice of its anxious ally, responding with demonstrations of commitment to extended deterrence for South Korea—including a visit by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and strategic asset deployments to South Korea. All this was in addition to regular combined military exercises and naval exercises featuring US aircraft carrier strike groups. Washington also consented to more bilateral consultation with Seoul regarding the US nuclear umbrella. The saga has concluded—at least for now—with the Washington Declaration promulgated at the Biden-Yoon summit in late April. The Washington Declaration promises tightened US-South Korea extended deterrence coordination and consultation, while the leaders’ summit—in the context of Yoon’s state visit to celebrate 70 years of US-South Korea alliance relations—functioned as a renewal of Washington-Seoul ties. These ties are now perhaps as strong as they have ever been. If Pyongyang has reckoned that increased belligerence would decouple the US-South Korea alliance, it has seemingly miscalculated.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
300. US-China Effort to Set “Guardrails” Fizzles with Balloon Incident
- Author:
- Sourabh Gupta
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The proposed “guardrail” that Joe Biden and Xi Jinping sought to erect last fall in Bali failed to emerge in the bitter aftermath of a wayward Chinese surveillance balloon that overflew the United States and violated its sovereignty. Though Antony Blinken and Wang Yi met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference afterward, aspersions cast by each side against the other, including a series of disparaging Chinese government reports, fed the chill in ties. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during the return leg of her US transit added to bilateral and cross-strait tensions and were met with Chinese sanctions. Issues pertaining to Taiwan, be it arms sales or a speculated Chinese invasion date of the island, remained contentious. The administration’s attempt to restart constructive economic reengagement with China, including via an important speech by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, appears to have fallen on deaf ears in Beijing. Following the Biden-Xi meeting on Nov. 14 on the sidelines of the G20 Leaders Summit in Bali, Indonesia, US-People’s Republic of China relations were transitioning to an improving track—or so it seemed. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Wei Fenghe, on the sidelines of the ASEAN Defense Ministers” Meeting-Plus meeting in Cambodia on Nov. 22. On Dec. 11-12, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink held “candid, in-depth and constructive” talks in Beijing. On Jan. 18, Secretary Yellen had a “candid, substantive, and constructive conversation” with departing Vice-Premier Liu He in Zurich ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Hours before Secretary Blinken was due to board a flight to Beijing on Feb. 3, which would have been the highest-ranking contact between the two sides since the Bali meeting, the budding rapprochement came to a screeching halt.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America